Iran

Following hints last week and an announcement on Monday by President Donald Trump, the U.S. blockade of Iran is back on in full force. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), in its latest update, stated that two commercial vessels were redirected and one was kinetically disabled in the first 24 hours. More than 20 U.S. warships, depicted in the graphic above, are operating in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, along with hundreds of aircraft dispersed across various bases, vessels, and forward arming and refueling points in the Middle East. “The U.S. military remains vigilant and prepared to ensure full compliance,” CENTCOM said.

The mechanics of the reinstated blockade appear to mirror the first, which CENTCOM outlined in an article published on X. “CENTCOM forces will enforce the blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The U.S. military continues to support traffic flow through regional waters for all vessels not violating the blockade.” Additional information was provided to commercial mariners in a formal notice issued by U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT). “The blockade encompasses the entirety of the Iranian coastline to include but not limited to Iranian ports and oil terminals.” The blockade applies to all traffic, regardless of flag, according to the notice, but “will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”

The U.S. maintains a considerable naval presence, centered around two carrier strike groups (CSG) that have been operating in the northern Arabian Sea for months. Both carriers, USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George H.W. Bush, are each escorted by up to three guided-missile destroyers, with one serving as the Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) Commander. An additional seven destroyers from surrounding combatant commands are also independently deployed, as well as one guided-missile cruiser, USS Princeton, a littoral combat ship, USS Tulsa, and an expeditionary sea base (ESB), USS Miguel Keith. The independent destroyers serve multiple missions and are often attached and operate with other major naval assets, including the Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG) and ESBs.

Two ARGs with Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) embarked are also underway in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean. Amphibious assault ship USS Boxer, dock landing ship USS Comstock, and amphibious transport dock USS Portland sailed into U.S. 5th Fleet in early July. The Tripoli ARG, which had been operating in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) since March, moved deeper into the Indian Ocean and entered the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) AOR. The group is composed of USS Tripoli, USS New Orleans, and USS Rushmore.

The U.S. employed several different methods to kinetically disable Iranian-linked commercial vessels that failed to comply during the first blockade. In April, USS Spruance fired shots from her 5-inch Mk 45 gun into the engine room of the Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska. The following month, an F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from USS Abraham Lincoln disabled M/T Hasna by opening fire on its rudder with a 20mm cannon. U.S. aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles into the engine room of M/T Jalveer in June as she attempted to transport oil from Iran through the Gulf of Oman.

“Enforcement actions include disabling and destructive fires upon vessels who do not demonstrate immediate compliance with blockading/boarding forces,” NAVCENT warned in the notice to mariners. On July 15, U.S. aircraft fired Hellfire missiles into the smokestack of M/T Belma, an unladen Curacao-flagged oil tanker in international waters attempting to sail toward Kharg Island, according to CENTCOM.

Additional Navy ships are operating in adjoining regions, and not pictured in the graphic, according to ship spotters, public AIS, and satellite imagery. At least one destroyer, USS Gonzalez, is operating in the Red Sea under U.S. 5th Fleet. Further north, in the Mediterranean Sea, four destroyers are deployed. Three of the four, USS Roosevelt, USS Arleigh Burke, and USS Paul Ignatius, are forward deployed out of Rota, Spain, and USS Thomas Hudner is homeported in Mayport, Florida.

The U.S. submarine force is not shown in the graphic but elements of it are present in the CENTCOM theater. At least two fast-attack submarines are operating with the CSGs, and potentially more are on independent deployments and protecting assets like the ARG. A guided-missile submarine, which can be loaded with 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles and Navy SEALs, is also often prowling the region, too.

Blockade 1.0 was lifted when the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was signed by both parties on June 17, but the blockading forces never left the region, and U.S. naval force posture has been unchanged since. At this point, however, the MOU is worth little more than the paper it was written on, as both sides have effectively declared it dead.

Note: Positions are general approximations.

Contact the author: ian.ellis-jones@teamrecurrent.io

Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, has declared that the country’s armed forces have “complete freedom of action” against the “enemy’s aggression”, after a day of attacks by the United States killed seven Iranian troops.

The attacks on Wednesday were the latest in days of escalating hostilities between Washington and Tehran that appear to have doomed an interim peace deal they agreed to on June 17.

The US announced several rounds of air strikes on Iran overnight on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, saying its forces hit military targets in Iranian coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz and on the Greater Tunb island.

Iran’s army said one attack struck a barracks in Bampour in the country’s southeast, killing seven personnel from the 388th Brigade and injuring several others. It pledged to deliver “a decisive response… at the appropriate time”.

Iranian media also reported that an overnight US attack hit a wheat storage facility in the  western Khuzestan province, which the US military denied.

The US announced its latest wave of strikes on Wednesday had begun at 10:30pm Iranian time (19:00 GMT), as Iranian media reported explosions in or near Bandar Abbas, Chabahar and Ahvaz.

Earlier, the US military also said it had redirected two commercial vessels as part of a renewed blockade on Iranian ports, which it began enforcing the night before.

Return to negotiations ‘extremely difficult’

Tehran said the repeated waves of US attacks had voided the memorandum of understanding with Washington that had underpinned the fragile ceasefire. Ghalibaf said Iran was “in an essential and existential war with America” and had no reason to continue adhering to the terms of the peace agreement.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran had abandoned its commitments under the memorandum because the US had reneged on its side of the deal.

“Our commitments remain in effect only as long as the other side fulfils its pledges,” Baghaei said.

He said Tehran had no plans to engage in further talks with Washington and was focused solely on defending the country.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar said the latest escalation made a return to negotiations “extremely difficult”.

“There’s now a low-intensity war, new sanctions are back on Iran, and there’s a US blockade again,” Serdar said.

However, he said, “if the Americans commit to the articles of the memorandum of understanding, then the Iranians say they’re open to engaging diplomatically”.

Iran renews attacks on Gulf neighbours

On Wednesday morning, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain as part of a “crushing response”. It said it also targeted a major US military logistics hub in Mina Abdullah, Kuwait.

Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence said later on Wednesday that it had downed at least four cruise missiles and 21 drones from Iran throughout the day.

Jordan’s military said it had downed three missiles from Iran.

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem AlBudaiwi condemned the latest “treacherous” Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, saying they “reveal Iran’s determination to drag the region into further chaos and instability”.

Zeidon Alkinani, founding director of the Arab Perspectives Institute, said that Iran’s continuing attacks on its neighbours had tested the patience of Gulf states, who oppose the US-Israel war on Iran and have staunchly advocated for diplomacy.

“The patience within the Gulf and the view of Iran may fall apart very soon,” Alkinani told Al Jazeera.

Trump says Iran ‘better behave’

US President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that US attacks against Iran would intensify if the country’s leaders did not return to negotiations, even threatening to “knock out” Iran’s power plants and bridges.

But Trump declined to give Iran a firm deadline when asked on Wednesday, saying: “I don’t ⁠like giving deadlines, but ⁠they pretty ⁠much know; they ⁠know the story… they better ‌behave.”

Ghalibaf said Iran was still balancing diplomacy with military action in pursuit of its national interest.

While Iran has “never welcomed war… we must always be prepared for battle and stand firm to protect our national security and interests”, Ghalibaf said.

“We must also use the tools of diplomacy and negotiation to achieve and solidify our national interests.”

United States President Donald Trump is scheduled to address a defence summit at the US Army War College on Wednesday, where he is expected to laud US investments in its armed forces that he has argued have helped add a new edge to history’s most powerful military.

But his speech comes at a time when the US’s war on Iran has significantly depleted the US military’s weapons stockpile.

The summit, which will be held in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, comes as the US has re-ignited attacks on Iran in the past week, and as Trump has threatened to continue a war that, according to recent US polls, is highly unpopular among Americans facing high costs of living.

The US has expended half of at least four of its most critical munitions since its war on Iran began on February 28, and has racked up billions of dollars in weapons expenses, analysis shows.

Replenishing low stockpiles could take anywhere between several months and several years. Analysts warn that a shrinking arsenal could put the US in a less formidable position in a potential future conflict – particularly against China.

Here’s what we know about the US weapons inventory:

What’s happening with the US-Iran war?

Following an April ceasefire between the US and Iran, and the subsequent signing of a memorandum of understanding in June, the conflict kicked off again after the US Central Command launched heavy waves of attacks on Iran’s military sites last Wednesday, saying it was aiming to degrade Tehran’s military capabilities. Huge, hourlong attacks have continued for four nights since Sunday, including on railway tracks and bridges.

Both sides traded low-intensity attacks throughout the ceasefire period. However, the US escalated air attacks last week after Iran fired on three commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz – because those vessels had used a shipping route not approved by Tehran.

Each blames the other for violating the ceasefire, and at last week’s NATO leaders’ summit, Trump declared the pact with Iran over, although he said American negotiators could continue talks. Washington has also reinstated a naval blockade on Iran-linked ships trying to transit the waterway and has re-imposed sanctions on Iran.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has responded with retaliatory attacks on US military assets in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait.

More than a dozen people have been killed in Iran since the new wave of US attacks, including civilians.

“We’re going to knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate,” Trump threatened in a Fox News interview that aired on Tuesday.

Attacking civilian infrastructure is a violation of international law.

Does the US have enough weapons to keep attacking Iran?

Washington’s supplies are running low but have not reached a critical level, according to analysis of the US weapons inventory by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.

In the 39 days of conflict between the start of the US-Iran war in February and the ceasefire in April, the US hit more than 13,000 targets, focusing mainly on using seven of its most powerful missiles and air defence systems: Tomahawk missiles, Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAAD) and Patriots.

For at least four of the munitions, Washington likely expended more than half of its available stockpiles, although many lower-grade alternatives are still in stock, according to CSIS. Government data on weapons inventory is classified.

Here’s how the munitions were used:

• Tomahawks – The US had about 3,000 of the long-range missiles that are fired from sea at ground targets. It likely used up more than 1,000 in the war on Iran.
• JASSM – About 4,000 of these stealthy, air-launched long-range missiles were in the US inventory before the war. About 1,100 were used in the war on Iran.
• PrSM – Supplies of the newly delivered, ground-launched long-range missiles were already low to start with, with deliveries since 2023 amounting to a total of 90. An estimated 40-70 were used in the war. One US military official claimed that the “entire” inventory had been expended.
• SM- 3 – The most expensive weapon per unit at $28m, these ship-launched ballistic missile interceptors numbered about 410 before the war. The US has used between 130 and 250 of these in the war on Iran.
• SM-6 – Also ship-launched, this missile is mainly used to intercept aircraft and cruise missiles. The US had about 1,160 stockpiled. An estimated 190- 370 have been expended in the Iran war.
• THAAD – The US had about 360 of the costly anti-ballistic missile systems by April, and between 190 and 290 were used in the war. The US has a total of 8 THAAD units or “batteries” consisting of launchers, interceptors, and radar systems.
• Patriot – An estimated 2,330 Patriots were in stock before the war, but between 1,060 and 1,430 have been expended. Some older versions may also likely be available – about 400 of them.

What does this mean?

Analysts from CSIS say that while the US may have enough to continue hitting Iran in the near-term war, it has reduced its stockpiles so significantly that it may not have enough for potential future wars, especially against a formidable rival like China.

Replenishing high-capability and costly weapons like the ones the US has used in Iran will likely take several years.

Trump and senior administration officials have publicly maintained that the US has an “unlimited” supply of weapons as the US-Iran war has raged on.

However, in March, Trump said administration officials met with the heads of US manufacturers, including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, BAE Systems, Honeywell Aerospace, L3Harris Missile Solutions, and Northrop Grumman. He said all promised to “quadruple” production and that increased manufacturing was already under way.

Subsequently, in June, Trump signed the Defense Production Act, an executive order compelling US weapons manufacturers to speed up production, citing existing conditions “which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs”.

An order compelling private actors to ramp up production likely reflects timeline concerns within the Pentagon, analysts note.

In the short term, Washington is also unlikely to meet demands from its allies, and may not have the capacity to supply the THAADs and Patriots that Ukraine says are crucial in its war against Russia.

Already, supply orders have hit road bumps. Japan’s order of 400 Tomahawks from Raytheon was meant to be delivered between 2025 and 2027, but US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in May that two more years could be added to the schedule.

Meanwhile, Switzerland began negotiations with France, Israel and South Korea in June to buy another missile defence system after its 2022 order from Lockheed Martin and Raytheon continued to face delays.

How long will replenishing weapons take?

Hegseth said in May that it could take “months and years” to replenish the supplies, based on the weapons system.

Analysts reckon it could take the US between one and four years to get its most exquisite munitions stockpiles back to pre-Iran war levels, even as Trump has boasted that new weapons plants are being built around the US and production is being ramped up.

Trump’s administration is set to buy large amounts of advanced munitions in its proposed $1.5 trillion 2027 defence budget – a 44 percent increase from 2026’s defence budget.

According to CSIS, estimated timelines to replenish the seven critical munitions, based on existing production facilities, are:

• Tomahawk: Between 4- 5 years (207 will be delivered in 2026, while 785 have been requested for 2027).
• JASSM: 1 year (821 to be delivered in 2026 and 821 requested for 2027).
• PrSM:  8 months (70 to be delivered in 2026 and 1,134 requested for 2027).
• SM- 3:  3 years ( 52 to be delivered in 2026 and 214 requested for 2027).
• SM-6:  3 years (125 to be delivered in 2026, and 540 requested for 2027).
• THAAD: 3 to 3.5 years (92 to be delivered in 2026, and 857 requested for 2027).
• Patriot: 3 years (172 to be delivered in 2026, and 3202 requested for 2027).

July 15 (UPI) — The United States and Iran traded attacks Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning as their war over the Strait of Hormuz continued to spiral, with President Donald Trump renewing threats to target civilian infrastructure.

The two nations have been trading nearly nightly strikes since last week, when Iran struck commercial shipping transiting the vital energy route.

While the broader war began in late February with the United States seeking to dismantle Iran’s military and nuclear programs and encourage the overthrow of its government, the current chapter is centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is fighting to restore freedom of navigation through the chokepoint, while Tehran is fighting to preserve its ability to restrict passage as leverage.

Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said in a statement Wednesday that more than 30 civilians were killed in southern Iran in the U.S. strikes.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps early Wednesday claimed to have hit U.S. military assets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, as U.S. Central Command said late Tuesday that it had completed a seven-hour wave of strikes, hitting Iranian naval capabilities, coastal defense systems and missile and drone sites near the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere along Iran’s coast.

CENTCOM said the strikes were intended to “degrade Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and civilian crews” within the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM earlier said that in the last seven days, Iran attacked seven commercial ships, resulting in nearly a dozen civilian casualties. An Indian national was killed in a strike on a ship on Monday.

The IRGC said in separate statements carried by its official Sepah News that it had “destroyed” shelters housing F-15, F-16 and F-35 fighter jets at Al Azraq Air Base in Jordan; and “destroyed” a satellite communications center, missile and air defense radar, a Patriot air defense complex and logistical facilities at a U.S. base in Kuwait.

The Fars News Agency reported that at least one Iranian drone struck U.S. assets in Kuwait.

The extent of any of the damage was unknown.

The Kuwait Army said its air defenses were confronting drone attacks, and Jordan’s Armed Forces said it had intercepted and shot down three missiles launched from Iranian territory. Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior said sirens had been activated.

Trump earlier Tuesday told Fox News that the U.S. military was going to hit Iran “very hard tonight” and again on Wednesday and Thursday, with civilian targets to be struck next week, a potential violation of international humanitarian law.

“Next week comes the power plants. Next week comes the bridges,” he said. “We’re gonna knock out all their power plants. We’re going to knock out all their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate.”

Trump has, since his first administration, tried to coerce Iran to the negotiating table on a new agreement aimed at preventing Iran from securing a nuclear weapon. Last month, a fragile cease-fire was agreed to for the purpose of implementing a memorandum that could lead to ending the war, but the Strait of Hormuz has been a sticking point.

On Tuesday, the U.S. military reimposed a blockade of Iranian ports that Trump removed after the MOU was reached.

CENTCOM said its round of strikes against Iran began at 3 p.m. EDT Tuesday, an hour before the naval blockade resumed operations.

Iran’s bridges, power plants possible targets, Trump said as IRGC says it attacked US forces in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan.

Military and defence analyst Alex Alfirraz Scheers says the US risks falling into an ‘escalation trap’ if it launches a ground assault in Iran because Tehran still retains a large number of ballistic missiles.

The United States carried out attacks against Iran for a third consecutive night late on Monday.

Iran has continued to hit targets in the Gulf in several waves of retaliatory strikes on Tuesday, including UAE‑flagged oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Here is a recap of what has happened on Monday night and Tuesday, and what each side has said.

Where did the US attack Iran?

US Central Command, the military’s regional command known as CENTCOM, said its latest strikes began at 4:45pm ET (20:45 GMT) on Monday and were aimed at degrading Iran’s capacity to attack “innocent civilians and commercial shipping” in the strait.

CENTCOM later announced the conclusion of its strikes and said the latest round of attacks on Iran lasted five hours. It added that US forces “successfully struck military targets across Iran including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas”.

Iranian state television and semi-official news agencies reported explosions throughout the night across the country’s southern coast, including the port city of Bandar Abbas, and on Kish and Qeshm islands, as well as the town of Jam in Bushehr province.

A projectile that struck western Bandar Abbas caused no casualties, the Fars news agency reported, citing the regional governor’s office.

What areas did Iran target?

For its part, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had launched a wider retaliatory campaign against US allies and interests across the Gulf.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iranian forces had struck several “violating” vessels in the strait, and that a US-made drone had been shot down near Bandar Abbas.

The UAE: The UAE said two of its oil tankers had been hit by Iranian cruise missiles in Omani waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE added that one Indian national crew member had been killed on one of the tankers, and eight other people were wounded.

Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the IRGC hit two “offending” oil supertankers, citing an IRGC statement – apparently referring to the two UAE tankers.

Kuwait: The Iranian army said on Monday that it had carried out a drone attack on US military targets in Kuwait. In a statement posted by state broadcaster IRIB, the army said it launched drones at a US Patriot missile system, fuel tanks, a watchtower, an ammunition depot and communication systems.

Bahrain: The IRGC said it targeted “several weapons storage depots, a satellite communications centre, and a building housing US forces” at al-Juffair Base in Bahrain. It also said it had hit the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain with missiles and drones.

Air sirens have been heard four times in Bahrain on Tuesday so far.

Jordan: Jordan’s army said it shot down four missiles in Jordanian airspace that were fired from Iran, according to the official Petra news agency. After this, the IRGC said it launched ballistic missiles at US forces and key facilities at an airbase in Jordan.

In a message addressed directly to Jordanians, the IRGC insisted that the operation was aimed at the US military presence in the country rather than at Jordan or its citizens. “You know that we hold no animosity toward your country. On the contrary, we deeply love you, the noble people. You understand the pain and suffering of the Palestinian people better than any other nation, and you are aware of the crimes of the Zionist regime in the massacre of 70,000 Palestinians, including 20,000 children in Gaza, carried out with the direct involvement of the United States,” it said.

What have the US and Iran said?

US President Donald Trump formally notified Congress on July 10 that fighting with Iran had resumed on July 7, invoking his authority to keep US forces in combat for another 60 days without lawmakers’ approval.

At a news conference on Monday, Trump said Iran’s offensive capabilities were being dismantled, but he still thinks a “deal is possible” despite the return to open fighting.

Trump also repeated an earlier demand that Gulf nations help cover the cost of protecting shipping, saying Washington was “protecting a very rich portion of the world” and expected to be paid for it.

On Monday, Trump also threatened to “take out” Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, also known as Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected nuclear site near the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran.

Meanwhile, the US blockade on Iran, confirmed by the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC), is due to begin at 20:00 GMT on Tuesday.

The US’s blockade covers Iran’s ports and terminals along the entire southern coastline, according to JMIC.

Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Committee, has warned that Iran remains steadfast in defending its red lines, following the formal introduction of a bill to manage the Strait of Hormuz.

In an X post on Tuesday, Azizi wrote: “Last night, coinciding with the downing of US drones, the ‘Strategic Action for the Security and Sustainable Progress of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf’ bill was formally introduced in Iran’s Parliament. We remain steadfast in defending our red lines, particularly regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz.”

What is happening to shipping in Hormuz?

Oil prices rose more than 9 percent on Monday, with Brent crude climbing to about $81 a barrel, its highest level since mid-June.

Kpler, the ship-tracking firm, said crossings through the strait fell by about 52 percent between July 10 and July 12, compared with the previous week.

Islamabad, Pakistan – A wooden panelled bookshelf behind him, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, aimed at extending their ceasefire by creating a pathway towards long-term peace.

Sharif then held up the document for the cameras. That was June 17, the high point of a frenzied diplomatic effort led by Pakistan spanning weeks, which had culminated in the MoU that Sharif signed as a mediator.

Yet less than four weeks later, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has, in just the past few days, issued two statements expressing “deep concern” over renewed US-Iran hostilities, with the MoU Islamabad had helped pull together seemingly in shreds.

On Monday morning, the US launched the latest in a series of attacks on Iran, which responded by firing missiles and drones at multiple Gulf and Arab nations that it blamed for hosting US military bases.

Hours later, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters that mediators, including Pakistan, Qatar and Oman, remained engaged and were continuing their efforts, even as he warned that Iran would continue responding to what it viewed as US non-compliance with the MoU.

So far, those efforts have failed to slow down the fighting, even as Pakistan has pressed on with diplomatic outreach.

On Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, telling him that dialogue and diplomacy remained “the only viable path” to resolving the crisis.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also spoke to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Friday, warning that “hard-earned” peace gains were at risk, while Dar held a separate call on Saturday with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud.

To many analysts, one question, above all, now stares at Pakistan and other mediators like Qatar: With the deep distrust between the US and Iran only further expanding following the new bout of fighting, can Islamabad or any other capital once again bring Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table?

Repeated breakdowns

The renewed fighting marks at least the third occasion since the US-Iran ceasefire signed on April 8 appeared to have collapsed.

Days after that truce was agreed on, the breakdown of the first round of Islamabad talks led to the US imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran both attacked ships in the days that followed.

Then, after the MoU was signed on June 17, Iran attacked several ships that it claimed were passing through the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, prompting another escalation with Washington.

But the Iranian tanker strikes last week appear to have raised tensions to new heights.

US attacks on Iran since then have hit at least 10 provinces, killing a soldier, several fishermen in the southern province of Hormozgan, and a firefighter in Sistan and Baluchestan, according to Iranian authorities.

A railway bridge on a trade corridor linking Iran with Central Asia and China was also struck, along with a bridge near Mashhad used by mourners travelling to former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral.

The renewed hostilities have also pulled Qatar, a fellow mediator alongside Pakistan, more directly into the conflict. On Sunday, Iranian missiles and drones hit the Gulf state, with debris from interceptions injuring three people, including a child, according to Qatar’s Ministry of Interior.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused Washington of violating “nearly all parts” of the June agreement within 25 days of its signing, citing attacks on transport infrastructure and fishing vessels.

Baghaei said on Monday that Iran had “acted in good faith” throughout, but that “each time the other party has failed to meet its obligations, we did not uphold ours, and we will continue to act in this manner.”

Since the war began on February 28, Islamabad has played the role of mediator.

It hosted talks in April, the first time in four decades that US and Iranian officials sat in a room together.

Its army chief and interior minister have travelled to Tehran several times. In late March, Pakistan also helped secure a Chinese-backed peace framework alongside its own diplomatic efforts.

In June, it helped produce the MoU signed by Pezeshkian and US President Donald Trump, along with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which was then discussed at the Burgenstock summit in Switzerland.

Yet analysts say Pakistan lacks the means to enforce the agreements it helps broker.

Javad Heiran-Nia, director of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said the MoU was never intended to resolve the underlying dispute.

“The MoU deferred key and substantive issues to future negotiations and functioned primarily as a tactical instrument to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping,” he told Al Jazeera.

Iran, he said, sees control of the waterway as “a strategic asset; not merely a coercive lever, but a deterrent tool”, and appears “prepared to accept the risk of war to preserve this strategic advantage”.

Mediators, he added, lack the instruments to resolve the dispute “unless a shift in the balance of power between Iran and the United States emerges as a result of limited military engagements”, pointing to a potential US naval blockade as one of the few developments that could alter the strategic calculus.

Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum in Doha, said Pakistan’s room for manoeuvre had narrowed as both sides hardened their positions over the strait.

“Pakistan is in a situation where it is highly dependent on both parties, as it always has been, but right now, Iran is bent on establishing its control over the Strait of Hormuz,” she told Al Jazeera.

According to Thafer, there is little Pakistan can do to de-escalate while both Washington and Tehran remain in “an escalatory phase”.

“Once they feel they have reached a point where the balance tips in favour of one side or the other, then perhaps they will return to the negotiating table,” she added.

But Qamar Cheema, head of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, pushed back on the idea that Pakistan is operating without real tools.

He pointed to US Vice President JD Vance’s recent remarks, where he credited Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir’s role in the process, as evidence that Islamabad’s military-diplomatic channel carries real weight in Washington.

Access itself, he argued, is the instrument.

“Pakistan enjoys trust, and that’s why both sides pick up the phone and call Pakistani leadership any time to remove a stumbling block,” Cheema told Al Jazeera.

Crowded diplomacy, narrowing options

But Pakistan has not been the only diplomatic channel, and according to Heiran-Nia, the dispute over the strait was never really Islamabad’s to mediate.

“Iran had previously removed the Strait of Hormuz issue from Pakistan’s mediation agenda, as the matter was essentially bilateral between Tehran and Muscat,” he said.

Tehran, he explained, did not want the issue to be “defined within a broader negotiation package under Pakistani auspices, which would have afforded Washington room for political manoeuvre”.

Direct Iran-Oman talks followed, but “US military pressure and economic sanctions threats against Oman have placed Muscat under considerable strain, preventing meaningful progress,” according to the Tehran-based analyst.

Meanwhile, he cautioned that Sunday’s attacks on Qatar “could have adverse effects on Qatar’s mediatory role”, although Doha “does not currently appear inclined to withdraw”, adding that “Iran should not assume that Doha’s patience is limitless.”

Mustafa Hyder Sayed, executive director of the Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad, described the GCC states as caught in an uncomfortable position.

“The GCC countries are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. They want a functional relationship with Iran while not openly declining the use of their bases and territory by the United States, because they understand they cannot choose their neighbours,” he told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, Israel, which is not a party to the MoU, has continued military operations in Lebanon, which Tehran cites as an ongoing violation of the agreement.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday that southern Lebanon “would become Gaza”, raising the prospect of further regional escalation.

Who blinks first?

Despite a week of escalating attacks, the core dispute remains unchanged.

Washington and Tehran remain divided over the same issue that stalled negotiations even before the latest round of fighting: Who controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and under what conditions?

Iran insists the MoU gave it authority over transit through the waterway. The US disputes that.

On Monday, Trump announced that the US was reinstating a naval blockade of Iranian ships and would charge a 20 percent tariff on all other ships trying to pass through the strait.

Yet, earlier, a possible compromise had briefly emerged.

Heiran-Nia said the parties explored a formula under which commercial vessels would coordinate passage with both Iran and a designated Arab Gulf state, allowing “both parties [to] claim a degree of victory”.

The talks stalled before reaching a conclusion, however, interrupted by the funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war in joint US-Israeli air strikes.

The conflict has since moved in the opposite direction, with military action aimed at shifting the balance of power rather than reviving negotiations.

“The prevailing trajectory now is the continuation of military strikes in an effort to shift the balance of power. Yet, there remains a risk that strategic calculations on either side could spiral beyond control,” Heiran-Nia said.

Thafer believes that, despite the violence, neither side has formally abandoned the MoU.

“Iran is framing this current round of escalation as a violation of the MoU rather than a reason to exit it, which means there could still be light at the end of the tunnel,” she said.

In her assessment, both sides bear responsibility for violating the agreement, from Iran’s attacks on shipping to Washington’s revocation of Iran’s oil sale licence and the military attacks. Yet the agreement remains, at least formally, in place.

Its future, she said, depends on which side ultimately gives ground over the strait. Iran retains what Thafer described as a “snapback capability” to disrupt shipping whenever it chooses.

“It is, militarily, very difficult to fully neutralise that Iranian capability. We will have to wait and see where the leverage finally sits,” she said.

Cheema, for his part, argued that Iran’s own conduct, more than any mediator’s diplomacy, is what will decide how this settles.

“Iranian authorities seem ambitious and aggressive, and are looking to take risks to project power, which makes it less likely that any agreement will reach a final conclusion. That means interventions from mediators will keep coming.”

US President Donald Trump is threatening to attack a heavily-fortified underground nuclear facility in Iran known as ‘Pickaxe Mountain’. It followed a third night of US strikes and a demand the US be paid 20% of the value of all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

US is carrying out more attacks on Iran, with Iranian media reporting explosions in Kish Island, Jam Island, Qeshm Island, Bushehr and Bandar Abbas.

London debuts new powers targeting state proxies after accusing Iranian military organisation of engineering anti-Semitic attacks.

The British government is pressing to use new powers allowing it to criminalise state proxies in order to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a threat to national security.

In a statement issued on Monday, the government announced that it was submitting draft regulations to the UK Parliament that would ban support for the IRGC. The move follows a series of anti-Semitic attacks in the United Kingdom.

In the statement, the government said the submission of the legislation was part of an attempt to “crack down on foreign state-backed activity in the UK”, noting this would include “espionage, foreign interference in our democracy, sabotage and physical attacks”.

Following the designation, it will be a criminal offence to invite support for or express support for the military organisation, assist them in carrying out UK-related activities, engage in conduct likely to materially assist them, or accept or retain material benefits provided by or on their behalf, according to the report.

Apart from the IRGC, the UK government also listed the Islamic Movement of Companions of the Right (IMCR), an Iran-backed group that claimed seven attacks on Jewish sites in the UK earlier this year, and Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU Volunteer Corps, as “the first bodies designated under landmark new state threats powers”.

British police have investigated attacks on Jewish-linked sites in London, including the torching of four ambulances belonging to a community charity in March, as anti-Semitic hate crimes. Three men were charged with arson in April.

“If approved by Parliament later this week, those conducting acts of sabotage including arson on behalf of these groups could face life imprisonment,” the statement added.

Caretaker Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “These new powers will make it easier to prosecute and lock up anyone carrying out their dirty work here in Britain.”

The new legislation gives the UK government “proscription-like” powers to designate foreign state proxies deemed a threat to the UK’s national security. It will mean that prosecutors do not need to establish a foreign power connection in cases involving designated groups.

“Iran and Russia are using proxies and thugs to do their dirty work on our shores. I have rapidly designated three groups so those working for them will be tracked down and put behind bars,” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said.

Reporting from London, Al Jazeera’s Charlie Angela said the designation could come into force “as early as Friday”.

“What that’s going to mean is it will become a criminal offence to support the groups in any way or to help them operate, and that could carry a maximum sentence of life imprisonment,” Angela said.

“Diplomatically, it is going to mark a further deterioration in the relationship between Iran and the UK. Earlier, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Foreign Office and questioned him. And that is likely going to get a strong response from Iran.”

The government said the IRGC has “a long history of using proxies and criminal networks to target people overseas – particularly the Jewish community and Iranian dissidents”.

Tehran, ⁠which is still at war with the United States and Israel, has previously denied using proxies.

Regarding the GRU military intelligence service, the government said Russia was using the group “for foreign intelligence collection and hostile covert operations and has a long record of targeting the UK and its allies”.

Based on the words of President Trump, America is well on the way to becoming a “global superpower in manufacturing” — indeed, as he declared in a Father’s Day social media post, we are already experiencing the “BEST ECONOMY EVER.” (Capitalization’s his.)

Here’s what the government’s own statistics tell us: Manufacturing investment has crashed during his watch, with construction spending in the manufacturing sector down 26.4% from Trump’s inauguration through May, to $174.8 billion. That’s the lowest figure since February 2023, when the economy was in the midst of a post-pandemic recovery.

White House spokesman Kush Desai told me by email that “the last two jobs reports” showed manufacturing job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a seasonally-adjusted decline of 2,000 manufacturing workers in May and a gain of 3,000 in June. But the June 2026 figure was 38,000 jobs, or about 0.3% below the level in June 2025, and 75,000 or about 0.6% below the level in January 2025, when Trump took office.

Desai said that “thanks to President Trump’s proven agenda of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts, American manufacturing will continue to rebound.”

There’s little mystery about what has come between Trump’s ambition and the real world. To a large extent it’s Trump’s economic program, particularly his tariff policies and, more recently, his war with Iran. Those have injected a level of uncertainty for corporate managements pondering whether to spend money on expansion that they haven’t had to confront in years.

The tariffs and the war have driven up manufacturers’ costs for raw materials and overseas shipping. The general economic atmosphere doesn’t help. U.S. gross domestic product growth came in at a 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter of this year, but the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta expects it to have fallen to 1.3% in the second quarter ended June 30.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index reached 44.8 in May, its lowest level ever (though it improved to 49.5 in June). Wages have been rising modestly, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but those gains have been eaten up by higher prices, especially for gasoline and food.

To put things another way, the actual figures show the U.S. economy to be sputtering, and the “vibe economy” as measured by consumer confidence is doing even worse.

Now that Trump’s second term is about to reach its 18-month mark, let’s unpack the factors causing the discrepancy between his ambitions and claims, and the reality.

Trump declared economic victory just as his term was starting. On March 20, 2025, he proclaimed a “manufacturing renaissance” in the U.S. That was based on what he said were “trillions of dollars in new investments” he had “already secured in tech-based manufacturing.”

A White House statement said “the list of manufacturing wins is endless.” The provided list was a roster of announcements, not groundbreakings, much less completed ventures.

Business executives quite properly have taken these pledges with mounds of salt. “Announcements are what people say they’re going to do, but dollars spent is what’s actually happening,” Didi Caldwell, chief executive of a firm that helps companies find factory sites, told the Financial Times. “From where we’re standing, we are not seeing signs of a manufacturing renaissance in the U.S.”

Indeed, at least some of these announcements have had the flavor of performative efforts to satisfy Trump’s amour propre and extract government concessions.

For example, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook appeared with Trump at the White House in August to announce a $600-billion U.S. spending plan to take place over four years. That was a $100-billion increase over its previously-announced program.

More to the point, however, it incorporated spending with suppliers that Apple had been working with for years. Mentioned in the news announcement was a commitment to buy cover glass for iPhones from Corning. But Corning has been supplying that glass since the first iPhone appeared in 2007. In any case, the announcement appeared to secure a commitment from Trump to exempt Apple from tariffs imposed on imported chips.

Apple’s announcement Wednesday that it will spend $30 billion to buy chips from Broadcom was similarly ambiguous. The announcement didn’t provide details about the terms of the commitment or the timing of its expenditures. I asked Apple for details and whether the deal was related to a desire to remain in Trump’s favor, but didn’t hear back.

A similar phenomenon occurred during Trump’s first term; Trump had built much of his 2016 presidential campaign on a promise to increase manufacturing jobs in the United States. He blamed shrinkage in the manufacturing sector on trade agreements such as NAFTA and the policies of the Chinese, and took credit when an American manufacturer agreed to create or save jobs in the United States.

As I reported in 2019, many of those arrangements turned out to be exaggerated or bogus, or predated Trump’s claim. Some disappeared as soon as public attention turned elsewhere, or were outweighed by job cuts made elsewhere by the same companies.

Trump’s tariffs appear to have had a direct effect on manufacturing employment in the U.S. Since Trump’s inauguration, the manufacturing sector has shed about 75,000 jobs, or 0.6%. After April 2, 2025, when he announced global “liberation day” tariffs supposedly as a response to years of unfair treatment of American exports, the decline picked up pace, with a shrinkage of 68,000 manufacturing jobs.

The Supreme Court invalidated those tariffs in February, but others are still in place, including tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and on goods from China. Nor has he ceased threatening partners with trade wars. As recently as Tuesday, he said he would cut off all trade with Spain because of that country’s disagreement with him over its defense spending and its criticism of his Iran war.

As it happens, Spain is one of the few countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus. That means that any cutoff, which trade experts think will be unlikely, would come at a cost to the U.S.

One might have hoped that Trump had learned a lesson from his first-term trade war with China. That conflict provoked a sharp contraction in the manufacturing economy, with the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index falling to 49.1 by mid-2019. (A reading below 50 signifies contraction.)

The ISM index began to recover toward the end of Trump’s term but fell again during the pandemic. Lately it has been falling again, to 53.3 in June from 54 in May.

The Iran war is another deadweight on domestic manufacturing. That’s partially the consequence of blockages of the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial thoroughfare not only for middle eastern oil, but also for such industrial inputs as fertilizer and aluminum. Cement, concrete, olive oil and spices are also among commodities produced in the region that use the strait as an outlet to reach the outside world.

Uncertainties in the region, tensions between the U.S. and China, and heightened concerns over the safety of shipping overall have driven up shipping costs between the far east and the U.S. The price of shipping a benchmark 40-foot container from China to the West Coast has nearly quadrupled to $6,687 now from about $1,700 just before the Iran war began, according to an index maintained by the cargo firm Freightos — even though shipping prices typically decline during this time of year.

There can be little doubt that the U.S. would benefit from an industrial policy — if it’s coherent. China supplanted America as the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods in 2010, and the gap has only widened since then. China’s dominance may be hard to reverse, as it’s built on lower labor costs and transport infrastructure that enjoys focused government investment.

Tariffs could be a component of a new industrial policy, but Trump’s tariffs aren’t rationally geared to protecting domestic industries that need protection. They’re expressions of his whims, and as such they’re totally ineffective. If there are government investment policies targeting industries that need assistance, they’re not apparent to economists or industrialists.

Trump can talk as much as he likes about a golden age for U.S. manufacturing, but from his first term through this one, it’s nothing but talk. And talk, of course, is cheap.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted US military facilities in Bahrain, claimed it has destroyed radar systems in Oman and hit Jordan and Kuwait in its latest round of overnight retaliatory strikes against the United States.

Tehran’s attacks on Monday came as a response to Washington’s escalating strikes as prospects of peace between the two countries recede.

Here is a recap of the latest attacks:

Where were the latest Iran attacks?

Oman: The IRGC said it attacked Oman as part of its latest phase of retaliation. It said it targeted “the FPS long-range aerial radar and the vessel detection radar in Oman”, adding that these radar systems were destroyed.

Bahrain: The IRGC also said it launched missile and drone attacks targeting “installations and infrastructure of the aggressive US army” in Juffair, Bahrain.

Bahrain’s Ministry of Interior said on Monday that sirens had been sounded in the country as it warned people to remain calm and head to the nearest safe place.

The IRGC earlier said it targeted several facilities at the Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain.

Jordan: Jordan’s military said on Monday that it intercepted and downed “four missiles that entered Jordanian airspace” and came from Iranian territory.

Earlier, the IRGC said it targeted Jordan’s Prince Hassan Air Base with missiles and drones and set fire to several fuel depots and ammunition storage facilities.

Kuwait: The IRGC said on Monday that it also targeted a US surface-to-surface missile base in Kuwait, “setting fire to two HIMARS missile launchers and missile-packed warehouses, completely destroying them”.

HIMARS stands for high mobility artillery rocket systems, which are mobile rocket launchers manufactured by the US.

Earlier, the General Staff of Kuwait’s Army said air defence systems were engaging “hostile aerial targets” inside the country’s airspace.

It said any explosions heard were the result of air defence systems intercepting the attacks and urged the public to follow safety and security instructions.

Where was Iran hit?

The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) earlier said it hit “dozens of targets at multiple locations with precision munitions to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz”.

These targets included “Iranian military air-defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats”, it said.

CENTCOM said it deployed “US fighter aircraft, naval vessels, one-way attack aerial drones, and one-way attack sea drones for the first time”.

Valiollah Hayati, the deputy governor for security and law enforcement in western Iran’s Khuzestan province, told the semiofficial ISNA news agency on Monday that US forces attacked at least eight locations across Khuzestan overnight.

Hayati also said one person was killed and four were injured when a projectile hit an agricultural water-pumping station in Mahshahr, according to the IRNA news agency.

Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported on Monday that a US-manufactured LUCAS (low-cost uncrewed combat attack system) suicide drone was “accurately hit and shot down” in Bandar Abbas, a city on the Strait of Hormuz.

What has each side said?

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement on Monday condemning the US strikes on targets in Iran.

US President Donald Trump insisted that the Strait of Hormuz was open during an appearance on the NBC TV network’s Meet the Press programme on Sunday.

“They’re very, very evil and sick people. We had meetings with them. They agreed to a deal yesterday, a perfect deal for us. No nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything. And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone at a ship,” Trump said.

When did the conflict reignite?

On July 6, the IRGC struck three commercial vessels, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, off Oman. Iran accused the ships of trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without its permission. Tehran’s interpretation of a key clause in the June memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the US gives it the authority to manage traffic through the waterway.

The following day, the US said it carried out strikes on Iranian military targets. Tehran in turn responded with missile and drone attacks on military bases across the Gulf where US forces are deployed.

On Wednesday, Trump told reporters the MoU was over, and on Saturday, the IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz was closed yet again.

How has this impacted the Strait of Hormuz and shipping?

The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in five weeks, according to shipping data.

Six ships sailed through the strait on Sunday, according to data from the trade intelligence firm Kpler, including the Humanity and the Capetan Andreas, transporting 2 million barrels of Iranian oil and 500,000 barrels of Kuwaiti petroleum products, respectively.

Three empty tankers also entered the Gulf to load oil, according to the data.

Retired US General Mark Kimmitt warns renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz could push the US and Iran back towards wider conflict.

Published on 13/07/2026 – 6:56 GMT+2•Updated
6:59

The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, gained 3.9% to $78.96 per barrel, while the US benchmark crude oil price rose 4% to $74.26 per barrel.

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Prices for both types of crude oil had recently slipped back to the levels seen before the war with Iran began, after the two sides reached an interim agreement to end the conflict and ships resumed transporting oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the United States launched several waves of strikes on Iran early on Monday morning following an Iranian attack on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz that set the vessel ablaze and left one crew member missing over the weekend. Iran retaliated by targeting countries across the Middle East.

US stock futures fell, with the contract for the S&P 500 down 0.4% and that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.3% lower. Nasdaq Composite futures lost 1%.

In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index lost 1.1% to 67,786.86, while in Seoul, the Kospi declined 5.6% to 7,060.69.

Shares in South Korean memory chipmaker SK Hynix, which soared 13% on their Wall Street debut on Friday, slumped 10.6% in Seoul. Its bigger rival, Samsung Electronics, fell 6.7%.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged 0.1% higher to 24,202.41, and the Shanghai Composite index shed 1.2% to 3,947.34.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.3% to 8,777.00.

US stocks ticked higher on Friday after investors showed sustained appetite for winners of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.3%.

SK Hynix’s shares jumped after trading began at midday after it raised roughly $26.5 billion by selling American depositary shares at a price of $149 each.

SK Hynix’s stock in Seoul had already surged more than 600% over the past year thanks to enthusiasm for AI. The boom has translated into real profits, driven by soaring demand for computer memory. But it has also raised concerns that AI stock prices have climbed too high and that the world’s spending on chips and data centres will not generate enough productivity and profit growth to justify the investment.

That has led to sharp swings in AI stocks, which have become some of Wall Street’s most influential because of their enormous market values.

Nvidia was the single biggest force lifting the S&P 500 on Friday, rising 4%.

Beyond the uncertainty surrounding AI, investors are turning their attention to the upcoming corporate earnings season.

Companies across industries will need to deliver strong profit growth to justify their elevated share prices, which remain close to record highs. This week will bring earnings reports from many of the biggest US banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, with several reporting on Tuesday alone.

Concerns about how the continued fighting with Iran will affect the global flow of crude oil are clouding the outlook for both energy costs and overall inflation.

High bond yields have been weighing on financial markets worldwide because more expensive oil and persistently high inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates.

Higher interest rates can help keep inflation under control, but they also slow economic growth and weigh on the prices of all kinds of investments.

Additional sources • AP

Oil prices have jumped amid the latest outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude, the main international benchmark, rose more than 4 percent on Monday as Washington and Tehran traded attacks amid their escalating standoff over control of the critical waterway.

Brent futures for September delivery stood at $79.26 a barrel as of 05:00 GMT, the highest since June 22.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on Sunday that it had carried out dozens of strikes on Iran to degrade its ability to attack vessels in the strait, hours after striking hundreds of targets in the country.

US forces launched the earlier round of strikes after accusing Iranian forces of “blatantly” attacking a Cyprus-flagged container ship, the MV GFS Galaxy, as it was transiting the strait.

“The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime corridor for global trade. Iran does not control it,” CENTCOM said in a statement late on Sunday.

“US forces are postured and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available to commercial shipping despite Iran’s continued unwarranted aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations.”

Iranian forces on Sunday launched a wave of missile and drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain in response to the US strikes.

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which claims the right to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, earlier reiterated that vessels attempting to cross the waterway without using its preferred route would “not be covered by safe passage guarantees”.

“The consequences arising from transit through unauthorized routes shall be the responsibility of the owner, operator, and vessel commander,” the authority said.

After ticking up following Washington and Tehran’s signing of a memorandum of understanding on ending the war last month, maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply amid the renewed fighting between the sides.

Just six vessels were tracked crossing the strait between 18:00 GMT on Thursday and 06:00 GMT on Friday, compared with 18-22 daily crossings earlier this month, according to maritime intelligence platform Windward.

Nine vessels were tracked in the waterway between 18:00 GMT on Saturday and 06:00 GMT on Sunday, four of which were flying the Iranian flag, according to Windward.

Roughly 130 vessels transited the strait, a conduit for one-fifth of the global oil trade in peacetime, each day before the start of the war.

Oil prices, which had returned to pre-conflict levels following the signing of the memorandum on June 17, are now about 9 percent higher than before the US and Israel launched their initial strikes on Iran in late February.

Mukesh Sahdev, founder and chief oil analyst at XAnalysts in Sydney, Australia, said he expects the per-barrel price of Brent to remain in the upper $70s during August and September amid the heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

“There could be occasional spikes and dips outside that range,” Sahdev said in a note to clients on Saturday.

“Long-haul procurement forces refiners to make supply decisions weeks in advance,” Sahdev added.

“Those decisions have already reduced immediate reliance on the Middle East, and the latest escalation is likely to reinforce rather than reverse that trend.”

Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG in Sydney, Australia, said prices are unlikely to approach the much higher levels seen earlier in the war despite the latest turmoil.

“Oil’s return towards pre-war levels in June reflected markets pricing in a best-case outcome for the fragile US-Iran arrangement; last week’s re-escalation exposes how fragile that assumption was,” Yip said in a note to clients on Monday.

“Near-term, the risk premium should keep prices supported, though a repeat of the earlier spike appears unlikely, as demand remains slow to recover while stranded-tanker releases and OPEC+ output quota expansion continue to add barrels to an already oversupplied outlook.”

Major Asian stock markets fell on Monday amid the renewed fighting in the Middle East.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell more than 2 percent in afternoon trading, while South Korea’s Kospi plunged more than 8 percent.

Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index dipped about 0.2 percent.

The US has launched a new wave of strikes on Iran targeting what it says is Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump has declared the waterway open while Iran insists it is closed leading to a further escalation of attacks, as Heidi Zhou Castro reports from Washington DC.

Iranian state media report explosions in port cities pof Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Jask, as well as Qeshm Island.

Tehran, Iran – Several days of military attacks by the United States across Iran have marked the most intense rounds of bombardment since the two sides reached a vague memorandum of understanding last month.

US fighter jets and warships have hit hundreds of military targets and a number of civilian ones in nearly a week of strikes, with Iranian authorities reporting attacks in at least 10 provinces, mainly in southern Iran near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.

In Tehran, life for more than 10 million people has carried on mostly as usual since the capital has not been recently attacked. But the economy is in the doldrums and the outlook is increasingly uncertain, more than four months after the US and Israel began their aerial campaign.

“Everything is too chaotic right now to guess what will happen next but it doesn’t look good,” Farshad, a 21-year-old resident of eastern Tehran, said on Sunday.

“I just really hope all-out war doesn’t start again because I don’t have the nerve for daily bombing on top of everything else,” he told Al Jazeera.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said overnight into Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz was once again considered closed due to US military intervention. Two vessels opting to transit using the Western-backed southern route near Oman, rather than Iran’s designated path to the north of the strait, had been struck, the IRGC added.

Iran said it had also attacked US interests across the region, including in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman, in response to US strikes, as prospects for negotiations to replace military escalation remained slim.

Another Tehran citizen, Nastaran, said the overnight escalation felt more serious than previous attacks.

“I didn’t expect it would be this bad when I picked up my phone this morning to check the news,” she said. “I think there will be more attacks soon.”

Growing US aggression

The US military has been expanding its attacks over the past week.

US Central Command said more than 300 military targets were hit during three waves, including coastal surveillance, logistics, communications, as well as missile, drone and naval assets. It has not acknowledged striking civilian objectives.

As with other flare-ups over recent weeks, numerous attacks were launched on the province of Hormozgan, including the major port city of Bandar Abbas, as well as on Siri, Qeshm and Jask overlooking the strait. Port, fishing, coastal-control infrastructure and air defences were extensively bombed, reportedly killing a soldier and leaving multiple fishermen dead or wounded in separate strikes.

US projectiles have also targeted multiple areas in Bushehr province, with one attack impacting the perimeter of Iran’s only nuclear power plant without damaging it.

Provincial authorities in the southwestern province of Khuzestan said three areas were hit, but not the capital, Ahvaz. Local authorities in the provinces of Kohgiluyeh, Boyer-Ahmad and Lorestan also reported projectile attacks.

In Sistan and Baluchestan to the southeast, attacks were reported in Chabahar, Konarak and Iranshahr, where a strike on airport facilities killed a firefighter. Video recorded by a local from Chabahar and shared online showed the destruction of the city’s renowned maritime control tower.

Over the past week, the US military has launched some of its deepest strikes into Iranian territory since full-scale military operations were suspended by the “ceasefire” agreed in April.

One of them was in the northern province of Golestan, where the Aq Tekeh Khan railway bridge was struck on the Gorgan-Incheh Borun line.

Authorities said the bridge, which carries both passengers and cargo, was repaired and services resumed quickly. However, the attack showed that inland corridors could also become targets to increase pressure on Iran by limiting its trade, including imports of essential goods.

The transit route connects Iran to Turkmenistan and onwards to Kazakhstan, Russia, China as well as Eurasian rail networks. Crucially, during the US naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports, it provided an overland alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, when assassinated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was being buried in his hometown of Mashhad in northeastern Iran, authorities said the US struck a bridge about 55km (34 miles) from the city, disrupting passenger journeys to the funeral procession.

Iranian authorities say electricity infrastructure – which Trump has repeatedly threatened with more strikes – has also been significantly impacted since the start of the war, worsening the long-running energy crisis.

The attacks have reduced Iran’s capacity for electricity generation by about 4,200 megawatts, just as summer temperatures reached 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) this week, Mohammad Allahdad, head of Tavanir, the government-owned parent company for the operation of Iran’s power grid, said on Sunday.

After the conclusion of the funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, a statement from new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen public since succeeding his father, emphasised the necessity for revenge.

Similar messages continue to be broadcast by state media and hardline religion-backed factions supporting the Islamic Republic, who on Sunday also cheered the death of US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. State television hailed what it called the “dispatching to hell” of a pro-war hawkish politician.

For its part, Israel has effectively undermined the MoU signed between Iran and the US on June 17 by pushing deeper into southern Lebanon and signalling readiness to return to military strikes in Iran.

Speaking to an Israeli programme on Saturday night, Defence Minister Israel Katz, who has threatened to assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei, said “southern Lebanon would become Gaza” and that the Israeli army will “apply the Rafah model” of conquest there.

WASHINGTON — Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of President Trump’s closest allies in Congress who traveled the globe to advocate for a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy, has died after a “brief and sudden illness,” his office said. He was 71.

The statement posted on social media late Saturday did not provide any additional details about the South Carolina Republican, a former Air Force lawyer, and said his family “appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period.”

“Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, is dead!” Trump posted on social media early Sunday. “He was always working, and was a true American Patriot. Lindsey will be greatly missed!!! DETAILS AND ARRANGEMENTS TO FOLLOW. So sad!”

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said, “My heart is heavy this morning to learn of the passing of my friend and colleague.”

Thune described Graham as “a strong advocate for the United States and a strong ally to freedom-loving countries across the globe. He believed in the might of America to achieve good in the world and dedicated his life to advancing that cause.”

Graham was one of the most influential figures in Washington on foreign policy, and he advised Trump on matters such as Iran and Russia. The senator had just returned from Ukraine and announced an agreement Friday with the Trump administration to move forward on a package of Russia sanctions. He had been scheduled to appear Sunday morning on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

As chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Graham had a central role during Trump’s second term as Republicans pushed major legislation on party-line votes while holding a narrow 53-47 majority in the chamber.

Under South Carolina law, Republican Gov. Henry McMaster will appoint a temporary replacement for Graham, who was seeking a fifth term in November.

Graham was close with Trump

Graham, who was elected to the Senate in 2002 after serving in the House, long promoted a policy of robust U.S. military interventionism and strong national defense that in later years would put him at odds with the growing isolationist wing of the Republican Party.

More recently, Graham had become well-known for his close ties with Trump, whom the senator briefly ran against for the party’s presidential nomination in 2016.

Their relationship would begin on a rough note, with Graham calling the New York businessman and TV reality show figure “unfit for office.” Graham also used profanity to describe him after Trump made disparaging comments about Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, Graham’s best friend in the Senate and a Vietnam War veteran. McCain and Graham, along with Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Democrat turned independent from Connecticut, were known as the “Three Amigos” and frequently traveled together to push their hawkish foreign policy views around the globe.

During a campaign rally in South Carolina, Trump read out Graham’s personal cellphone number and continued to belittle him throughout the 2016 campaign as Graham made it clear he would not support Trump even though he was the GOP nominee.

But Graham shifted significantly once Trump won the White House. He emerged as one of Trump’s top allies — speaking with him frequently and becoming a regular presence on the golf course alongside the president — even as McCain remained a critic and foe of Trump.

In a 2018 interview with the Associated Press, Graham explained his pivot by saying McCain taught him that the country must move forward after elections and that meant “you have an obligation” to help the president. McCain ran twice for the White House.

“And I’ve tried to be helpful where I could because I think he needs all the help he can get,” Graham said of Trump. “You can be a better critic when people understand that you’re trying to help them be successful.”

Graham appeared to break with Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, saying before the delayed congressional vote to certify Joe Biden’s election victory over Trump, “Count me out. Enough is enough.” But the senator returned to the fold and remained close with the president during his second term.

Foreign policy was a focus

Graham had been in Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said that the senator visited his country 10 times during the years since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“Lindsey was a true defender of freedom and the values that make our world safer,” Zelensky said.

Graham’s travels made him a familiar face to dozens of world leaders.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu mourned Graham’s death, calling him “a great friend of Israel” and “a cherished friend of mine.”

Netanyahu said Graham understood that the security of Israel and the United States was inseparable and devoted his life to defending America, strengthening the U.S.-Israel alliance and standing up for the free world.

“Israel has lost one of its greatest friends. America has lost a great patriot. I have lost a beloved friend,” Netanyahu said.

Chairman of key committees

As chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Graham oversaw a process called reconciliation, a Senate procedure that allowed Republicans to pass significant policies such as last year’s tax law without the threat of a Democratic filibuster.

He had previously led the Judiciary Committee when Republicans confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court in late 2020, and was in line to regain that gavel if the party kept control of the Senate after this year’s midterm elections.

“In 2027, I’ll be Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee once again,” Graham posted on X on June 30. “And I’ll wake up every single day with one goal: confirming as many conservative judges as possible.”

Graham was a key player in the Senate’s efforts to craft a massive immigration overhaul in 2013 as a member of a bipartisan group that wrote a sweeping measure that would have altered virtually every part of U.S. immigration law. It passed the Senate with 68 votes but was never taken up by the House, so it did not become law.

But Graham’s views on immigration, particularly an endorsement of a path to citizenship for people in the U.S. without legal status, put him at odds with some Republican factions.

He sometimes faced primary challenges in his home state of South Carolina, but he won the nomination outright in June.

The senator addressed the president in his victory speech last month, saying, “I’m going to help you change this world and change this country.”

Special election

Graham won 57% of the GOP vote in the primary and was up against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, and several minor party and independent candidates in November.

After McMaster appoints a replacement, South Carolina law requires a special primary for voters to select a new nominee within weeks of a vacancy. The general election winner will take office January, beginning a full six-year term.

McMaster’s office did not immediately return messages seeking comment on who would take Graham’s seat or when the machinations for the primary would begin. State party officials said early Sunday they would release more information when they could.

The sparse statement by Graham’s office, which did not explain his death, comes during a stretch of concern about a lack of transparency about lawmakers’ health.

Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) was absent without explanation for months before returning to Congress and disclosing that he had been diagnosed with depression.

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell, the former longtime Republican leader, was hospitalized weeks ago for undisclosed health reasons.

McMaster said in a statement that Graham was “irreplaceable.”

“The fiercest of fighters for South Carolina and America — and a loyal and steadfast friend,” McMaster said. He added: “We shall not see his likes again.”

Graham was not married and did not have children. His closest living relative is sister Darline Graham Nordone, whom he helped raise after both their parents died.

Weissert writes for the Associated Press. AP writers Mary Clare Jalonick and Christopher Megerian in Washington, Meg Kinnard in Columbia, S.C., Brian P. D. Hannon in Bangkok and Geir Moulson in Berlin contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — After the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, Sen. Lindsey Graham said he had finally had enough of the man who was championed by the mob that stormed the pillar of American democracy: President Trump.

“Trump and I, we’ve had a hell of a journey. I hate it to end this way. Oh, my God, I hate it. From my point of view, he’s been a consequential president,” an emotional Graham said once authorities cleared the rioters and allowed senators to reclaim their chamber to certify Joe Biden’s election win. “All I can say is count me out. Enough is enough.”

It wasn’t, of course.

Graham, the South Carolina Republican who died unexpectedly Saturday night at 71, realized that his party’s future was inextricably tied to Trump and quickly reverted back to being a staunch defender. The shift made what had once seemed like a final rupture into just another twist in the topsy-turvy relationship between the powerful senator and the president who came to dominate their party.

“Can we move forward without President Trump? The answer is no,” Graham said in May 2021, just four months after the Jan. 6 insurrection. “I’ve determined we can’t grow without him.”

Trump, who called Graham a “true American Patriot” in a social media post Sunday, appeared shocked by the senator’s sudden death.

“I just can’t believe it,” the president said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “He was like a member of the family.”

Graham often advised Trump on foreign affairs, particularly on matters pertaining to Israel, Ukraine and Iran. He was a frequent visitor at the White House.

“At the end of a particularly thrilling and rollicking meeting in the Oval Office, Lindsey Graham turned to the room and said: ‘I’ve never had this much fun in my life,’” Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller wrote on X. He said such gatherings “were filled with camaraderie, kinship and uproarious laughter.”

Trump recalled that during his last conversation with Graham, he told his friend, “We’ll see you soon, come over anytime you want.”

‘Unfit for office’

The senator and Trump first clashed while competing for the 2016 presidential nomination.

Graham described Trump as “unfit for office,” and was angered when Trump denigrated the military service of Graham’s close friend Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Trump, while talking about McCain’s years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, said, “I like people that weren’t captured.”

Trump got mad enough at Graham to release the senator’s personal cellphone number. That prompted a viral video in which the senator dramatically destroyed a series of flip phones. He smashed one with a meat cleaver and another with a golf club, then used lighter fluid, a blender and toaster oven to pulverize others before tossing one off the roof.

Graham eventually likened Trump’s winning the nomination to “being shot in the head” and said he refused to vote for Trump that November. But the pair later bonded over golf and what Graham described as a mutual and irreverent sense of humor.

Trump and Graham began so frequently hitting the links together that the senator started seeing it as something of a career builder, leaning heavily into the kind of over-the-top flattery Trump relishes. In 2017, Graham joked that Trump had beaten him “like a drum” on the course, even worse than in the presidential primary.

“Their true friendship could only be seen behind the curtain,” Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) said on ABC’s “This Week.” Scott said that relationship was forged as political adversaries but was strengthened by spending 100-plus hours golfing together.

During Trump’s first term, Graham helped advance Trump’s nominees to the Supreme Court, lent credibility to the White House’s legislative agenda and even at times became part of the president’s inner circle. He frequently said Trump was maturing in politics and growing on the job.

Graham’s political divergence with McCain, who died in 2018, was never more clear than in 2017, when McCain voted against a Trump-backed plan to overturn the Affordable Care Act, former President Obama’s signature healthcare law. The effort had been co-sponsored by Graham.

A short-lived split, an alliance reignited

In his floor speech after the Capitol attack, Graham said that “he’d never been so humiliated and embarrassed for the country.” But the break with Trump ended quickly.

Weeks later, Trump invited Graham for golf and dinner at the president’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, reigniting their alliance. During Trump’s 2024 campaign, Graham was a frequent Trump surrogate on television, promoting U.S. military strength that he said would advance “America first” policies.

Graham never shed his more traditional Republican foreign policy views, including outspoken support for Ukraine after the Russian invasion — even as Trump frequently wavered in supporting Kyiv, sometimes castigating Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and praising Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

The senator was also a leading voice pushing the White House to more fully embrace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and take a harder line against Iran, and he was a leading advocate of Trump’s ongoing war with Iran. After the U.S. and Israel attacked in February, Graham staunchly defended the action and working to counter many among Trump’s “Make America Great Again” base who supported the president’s longtime assertions that “America first” meant avoiding such military conflicts.

“To those who say Iran is stronger now than before, that is an insult to the American military and it is delusional thinking because the Iranian economy is in shambles,” Graham posted on social media June 19.

Graham’s admiration for Trump went far beyond Iran. When the senator clinched the South Carolina Republican primary last month, he suggested the president was just short of a deity.

“I want to start with a bunch of thank yous. I want to thank the big guy, God. Trump comes later,” Graham laughed. “Mr. President, you’re not far behind God, but we’re gonna start with him.”

Weissert writes for the Associated Press.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps released a video of what they say were missiles launched by their naval forces in retaliation of US strikes. US-Iran tensions have been escalating in the Strait of Hormuz leading to its closure and exchange of strikes between US and Iran.