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A potentially very strong El Niño is emerging as a major risk for global agricultural markets, threatening to disrupt rainfall, raise temperatures and expose some of the world’s most important tropical crops to severe weather stress.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now sees a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026 to 2027. For commodity markets, the concern is not simply that El Niño causes drought. Its effects vary sharply by region, meaning excessive rainfall in one major producing country can occur alongside extreme dryness in another.

That makes the phenomenon particularly important for soft commodities such as cocoa, coffee and sugar, whose production is concentrated in climate sensitive tropical regions.

Why El Niño matters for commodity markets

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific become unusually warm as trade winds weaken. The pattern generally lasts between nine and 12 months and can alter global temperature and rainfall patterns.

For farmers, the problem is timing. Crops can be damaged not only by drought but also by excessive rainfall, heat, fungal disease and disrupted flowering or harvesting cycles.

This year’s potential El Niño also arrives at an unusually difficult moment for agricultural producers. Farmers are already dealing with higher fertiliser and diesel costs linked to the U.S. Israeli war on Iran. Another major weather shock could therefore amplify existing production pressures.

Historically, strong El Niño episodes have been associated with substantial increases in soft commodity prices. But the effects differ considerably between crops.

Cocoa faces one of the clearest risks

Cocoa appears particularly vulnerable because production is heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of countries.

Ivory Coast and Ghana together account for roughly half of global cocoa production, while Ecuador is the third largest producer. All three can experience significant El Niño related weather disruptions.

Every strong El Niño over the past 55 years has reduced cocoa output, according to WisdomTree.

The previous El Niño illustrates why the relationship is more complicated than simply associating the phenomenon with drought. During the initial phase of the 2023 to 2024 event, West Africa experienced unusually heavy rainfall. Excess moisture contributed to fungal disease affecting cocoa trees.

Conditions subsequently shifted toward intense heat and unusually dry Harmattan winds. Trees weakened by disease struggled to flower, further damaging production.

That sequence demonstrates the real danger for cocoa: El Niño can produce multiple weather shocks during the same crop cycle.

The consequences can quickly reach global consumers. Cocoa prices nearly tripled in 2024 after the West African harvest failed, eventually exceeding $12,000 per metric ton.

A very strong El Niño could therefore revive fears of another supply deficit if weather conditions deteriorate across major growing regions.

Coffee faces a divided outlook

Coffee presents a more complicated picture because the world’s two major varieties are concentrated in different regions.

Robusta coffee is particularly exposed to El Niño because Vietnam and Indonesia, which together account for about half of global robusta production, typically experience higher temperatures and reduced rainfall under the weather pattern.

The timing is especially important. Dry conditions can hit these countries during crop development, with the consequences becoming visible during harvesting later in the year.

Citi analysts warned that dryness in Vietnam and Indonesia could significantly reduce robusta yields.

Arabica coffee presents a different picture.

Brazil, responsible for nearly half of global arabica production, can initially benefit from warmer conditions because they reduce the risk of damaging winter frosts.

But that advantage could prove temporary. El Niño typically brings hotter and drier conditions to Brazilian coffee growing regions later in the year, when the next crop is developing.

That creates the possibility of a delayed supply shock in 2027.

Sugar could be the exception

Sugar demonstrates why El Niño does not automatically translate into a bullish commodity market.

Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, can experience heavier rainfall during the second half of the year. Excessive rain can disrupt harvesting and affect sugar quality.

India and Thailand face the opposite problem. El Niño generally reduces rainfall during the summer monsoon, creating additional pressure on production.

India is already expecting its lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years, at around 90% of the long-term average. Hedgepoint estimates that even a moderate El Niño could reduce Indian sugar production by around 1 million metric tons.

Yet there is an important counterweight.

El Niño’s wetter conditions in Brazil could ultimately support the country’s following sugar crop. Since Brazil accounts for roughly half of global sugar exports, stronger Brazilian production could offset losses elsewhere.

That means sugar may not experience the same sustained price pressure as cocoa or robusta coffee.

The bigger problem is climate uncertainty

The most important market implication is not simply whether El Niño becomes “very strong.” It is where its effects materialise and when.

Agricultural markets operate on highly specific growing cycles. Rain arriving at the wrong stage can be just as damaging as drought. Excessive rainfall can create disease, while heat can interfere with flowering and crop development.

Climate change further complicates the picture.

The relationship between El Niño and agricultural weather is becoming harder to interpret because rising global temperatures can intensify the consequences of existing climate patterns. A weather event that might previously have produced manageable stress can now occur against a much hotter baseline.

This means commodity traders increasingly have to price not just the probability of El Niño, but the interaction between El Niño, climate change and already strained agricultural supply chains.

What could happen to prices?

The clearest risk is concentrated in cocoa and robusta coffee, where production is particularly exposed to adverse conditions in major growing countries.

Cocoa has perhaps the greatest vulnerability because West Africa dominates global supply and has already experienced serious weather related production problems. Another major disruption could quickly tighten inventories and push prices higher.

Robusta coffee faces a similar risk if drought develops across Vietnam and Indonesia.

Sugar is more balanced. Production losses in India and Thailand could be partly or potentially substantially offset by improved Brazilian conditions for the following crop.

The broader lesson is that El Niño is not a uniform commodity shock. It redistributes weather risks across producing regions, creating winners and losers within the same market.

Why consumers should care

The effects will ultimately extend beyond commodity exchanges.

Higher cocoa prices can increase chocolate production costs. Coffee shortages can raise prices for roasters and consumers, while sugar disruptions can affect everything from beverages to processed foods.

And because agricultural markets are interconnected, a weather shock in one producing region can encourage buyers to compete more aggressively for supplies elsewhere.

The potential super El Niño therefore arrives at a particularly sensitive moment for global food markets.

If forecasts prove correct, the next several months could test whether commodity markets have adequately priced the risks of increasingly volatile weather.

The real threat is not El Niño alone. It is El Niño hitting an agricultural system already under pressure from rising costs, concentrated production and a changing climate.

With information from Reuters.

As Wrexham unveiled their new 2026-27 home shirt while ringing the Nasdaq bell in New York’s iconic Times Square, there was little doubt that the club’s stock has never been higher.

Icons from the past such as Mickey Thomas, Steven Fletcher, Ben Tozer and Ben Foster were among those in The Big Apple proudly adorning the club’s red jersey.

It formed part of the launch of their new home kit, complete with their newest sponsor – yet another global brand.

Which is all in keeping with their cross-Atlantic profile, one unlike any other in the Championship or even many in the Premier League.

“Each time Wrexham has come to the U.S., we’ve been blown away by the reception,” co-owners Rob Mac and Ryan Reynolds told Sports Illustrated, external.

“The support has continued to grow, and it felt important to come back and connect with those fans in person.”

The Red Dragons are more than halfway through their pre-season tour of the United States, the third time in four summers they have travelled across the Atlantic.

It is a far cry from the summer of 2021 – Phil Parkinson’s first pre-season in north Wales – when Wrexham faced the likes of Burnley’s Under-23s, Tamworth, a Fleetwood Town XI, Spennymoor Town and Curzon Ashton.

Netflix on Thursday reported higher revenues and profit in the second quarter as it sought to assure investors about its growth prospects.

The streaming giant reported revenue of $12.6 billion in the second quarter, up 13% from a year ago. Net income during the period rose 9% to $3.4 billion.

Netflix said it expects revenue to grow 12% in the third quarter, but lowered its 2026 revenue forecast to $51 billion from $51.4 billion.

The results were roughly in line with what analysts had predicted and were driven by recent price increase and growth in advertising revenue. The latter is expected to reach $3 billion this year, the company said.

In a presentation with analysts, Netflix executives touted global expansion plans.

“We’re entertaining an audience approaching a billion people with still lots of room to grow into our addressable market on every measure,” said Spencer Neumann, Netflix’s chief financial officer, in the earnings presentation. “We believe we’ve got lots and lots of runway for solid growth ahead of us.”

Those comments appeared intended to assuage investors who’ve grown concerned that people could be spending less time on the streaming service as rivals like YouTube gain market share.

Netflix’s share of TV viewing time in the U.S. has steadily declined in recent months as rivals have gained market share, according to Nielsen data.

The streamer represented 7.8% of all TV viewing in the U.S. in April — the lowest percentage since May 2025. It was 7.5% in April 2025, Nielsen said.

By comparison, YouTube has seen its share of the streaming audience grow. YouTube’s TV viewing share in April rose to 13.4%, up from 12.4% a year earlier, Nielsen said.

Some investors fear that if viewership is down, subscribers could cancel the service, which would negatively affect the platform’s growing advertising business. It could also undercut Netflix’s ability to raise prices in the U.S. and other countries.

Those worries have caused Netflix’s stock price to plummet 41% in the last year. The stock closed on Thursday at $74.35 a share, up 1%. In after hours trading, the stock fell 8%.

“The engagement elephant continues to rear its head and investors are on edge that an earlier price hike in a seasonally tough period and lighter content slate could have driven more churn than usual,” wrote Morgan Stanley Research analysts in a research note.

On Thursday, Netflix said in a letter to shareholders it has a sophisticated understanding of its consumers and “we know not all hours are equal” and that engagement on its platform is “healthy.”

“The entertainment industry remains dynamic and competitive,” Netflix told shareholders. “We aim to stay ahead by executing against our three areas of focus: delivering more entertainment value, leveraging technology to improve every aspect of our service, and improving monetization.”

The Los Gatos-based company said it plans to allocate more than 5% of its content spend on live programming this year. Live content has been a key driver for subscriptions, accounting for six of the top 10 new member sign-up days over the last five years, the company said.

In the first half of 2026, Netflix said members watched more than 97 billion hours, up 2% from a year ago. Among the most popular shows: the crime thriller “I Will Find You,” which had 87 million views; and the romantic comedy film “Voicemails for Isabelle,” which garnered 71 million views.

Netflix has been adding new types of content to its platform, including video podcasts to help increase engagement with subscribers during the day.

As part of the diversification efforts, the platform has expanded its portfolio of live programming over the years, including adding NFL games and streaming Major League Baseball’s opening day game.

In 2022, Netflix had also faced investor pressure when it reported declining subscribers for the first time in more than a decade. That pushed the company to delve into other areas including advertising, gaming and cracking down on password sharing.

Published on
14/07/2026 – 7:53 GMT+2

The price of Brent crude climbed to just over $84 a barrel after soaring nearly 10% on Monday. US benchmark crude was up 1.4% at $79.20 a barrel.

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Oil prices are still below their wartime peak of nearly $120 a barrel, but uncertainty over the future stability of supplies deepened as the US and Iran each asserted they controlled the Strait of Hormuz.

US share futures were down 0.3% as the U.S. launched more strikes on Iran after President Donald Trump said Washington was “reinstating” a blockade on Iran in the strait.

Fighting in the region has kept oil tankers from using the waterway to deliver crude to customers from the Persian Gulf, driving up fuel prices worldwide.

Asia-Pacific shares slip overnight

In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 1% to 66,574.96 and the Kospi in South Korea declined 3.2% to 6,589.37.

The Shanghai Composite index lost 0.8% to 3,884.32, even though the government reported that China’s exports jumped 27% in June from a year earlier as adoption of artificial intelligence drove strong demand for computer chips and other technology.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged 0.1% higher, to 24,230.46, while in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.5% to 8,767.00.

Monday on Wall Street, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, coming off its fourth winning week in the last five. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 1.6%.

Chip stocks like Micron Technology helped lead the way lower. Micron fell 4.4%, eating into what had been a stellar rise of 243.1% for the year so far.

Worries are rising that stock prices have shot too high and that the demand may not be sustainable if AI doesn’t deliver as much profit and productivity as expected.

Nvidia fell 3.5%. Because it’s the largest stock on Wall Street by value thanks to the euphoria around AI, it was the single heaviest weight on the S&P 500.

Investors turn to earnings

Much of Wall Street’s attention this week will be on profit reports from companies saying how much they earned during the spring. On Tuesday alone, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are all releasing their latest quarterly results.

Analysts are forecasting that companies in the S&P 500 index will deliver overall growth of 23.6% from a year earlier, according to FactSet. If they’re right, it would be the second straight quarter of growth better than 20%.

Companies across industries will need to deliver strong growth to justify the big moves their stock prices have made. Indexes are near records despite their sharp recent swings due to worries around AI stocks.

More costly oil would push inflation higher, potentially leading the Federal Reserve and other central banks to raise interest rates. Higher rates can keep a lid on inflation, but they also slow the economy and hurt prices for all kinds of investments.

In other dealings early Tuesday, the US dollar slipped to 162.34 Japanese yen from 162.35 yen. The euro rose to $1.1391 from $1.1381.

Additional sources • AP

It even has special features to ensure drivers don’t feel like they’re ‘floating’

The world’s tallest bridge is so high that an entire skyscraper could fit underneath it. While many would expect the highest bridge to be in the likes of China or the US, it is actually in France.

The Millau Viaduct is part of a motorway that connects Paris to the Mediterranean. It was designed by British architect Norman Foster and is in Southern France.

Work completed in 2004 and the cost of construction was approximately €394 million (£345 million). It has an impressive height of height of 343 metres (1,125 ft), which is higher than the iconic Eiffel Tower.

The Paris skyscraper stands at 330 metres (1,083 feet). Millau Viaduct is 2460 metres long and touches the bottom of the Tarn valley just nine times along its length.

Le Shuttle said: “Plans for a road crossing to alleviate the traffic through the town of Millau date from the 1980s.

“British architect Sir Norman Foster was among the team that designed the viaduct, which was considered the most viable solution to cross the valley and river, with the least ecological impact on the area. Construction of the viaduct began in 2001.”

There is no pedestrian access to the viaduct as it is a high-speed motorway. However, it does attract tourism and there are guided informational tours.

Tours include taking a designated nature path to a viewing platform below the bridge and even inside one of the tallest pylons. A marathon takes place every year over the viaduct, and the Tour de France has passed under the viaduct a number of times.

The viaduct features a slight curve that extends up to 20km on the road on either side. It helps drivers settle the feeling of “floating” when driving on a long, straight bridge.

Enjoy Travel explained: “It has two lanes in each direction and interestingly, the bridge is not straight as this could induce a sensation of floating for drivers.

“To remedy this, the architects designed the bridge to have a slight curve, which is 20km in range. Another design feature that improves safety, is the road’s slight incline of 3%, which improves visibility and reassures the driver.

“The bridge is exposed to strong gusts of up to 151km/h, so designers installed side screens that cut the wind’s impact by 50 per cent.”

Visitors have left positive reviews about their experience of the viaduct on TripAdvisor. One said: “Love bridges. This is one not to be missed. Be sure to take a look at it from below to get a real sense of it. Real engineering feat.”

Another added: “An absolutely superb place! The viaduct and the surrounding landscape are so beautiful that you feel like you are part of a painting or drawing! It is truly a work of engineering of the highest level.”

Someone else commented: “Visited today after it been on my bucket list. Great visitors centre, cafe and toilets. Parking is free and you can walk up a 470m path to an awesome view point. You can see the viaduct and surrounding areas. Drove over the bridge with stunning views.”

South Korean stocks closed higher Friday, extending their winning streak to a second consecutive session, as semiconductor shares rallied following overnight gains on Wall Street. The local currency gained ground against the U.S. dollar.

After choppy trading, the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) added 184.03 points, or 2.52 percent, to close at 7,475.94.

Trade volume was moderate at 449.53 million shares worth 31.16 trillion won (US$20.73 billion), with gainers far outnumbering losers 799 to 92.

Institutions purchased a net 1.13 trillion won worth of shares, while individuals and foreigners sold a net 772.82 billion won and 322.56 billion won, respectively. Foreign investors turned net sellers after two consecutive sessions of net buying.

After opening more than 3 percent higher, the KOSPI climbed as much as 5.7 percent during the session, triggering a buy-side sidecar that temporarily halted program trading in KOSPI-listed shares for five minutes. It marked the third activation of the trading curb this week.

The KOSPI gave up some of its earlier gains in afternoon trading as investors locked in profits.

Investor sentiment improved after U.S. stocks closed higher overnight, supported by a strong rebound in semiconductor shares and easing oil prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.27 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 0.81 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.3 percent.

In Seoul, large-cap stocks finished broadly higher.

Semiconductor heavyweight Samsung Electronics went up 2.52 percent to 285,000 won.

In contrast, SK hynix edged down 0.27 percent to 2.18 million won after opening higher. The company is set to make its debut on the tech-heavy Nasdaq through the listing of its American depositary receipts (ADRs).

“Investor sentiment toward the semiconductor sector improved as Meta’s capital spending plans and Micron’s investment outlook helped ease concerns about the industry’s prospects,” said Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daeshin Securities. “Strong investor demand for SK hynix’s ADR offering also supported sentiment toward semiconductor stocks, adding upward momentum to the broader market.”

Artificial intelligence investment firm SK Square advanced 6.18 percent to 1.41 million won, while chip components maker Samsung Electro-Mechanics gained 6.1 percent to 1.58 million won.

The Korean won was quoted at 1,501.4 won against the U.S. dollar at 3:30 p.m., up 4.7 won from the previous session.

Bond prices, which move inversely to yields, closed higher. The yield on three-year Treasurys went down 1 basis point to 3.768 percent, and the return on the benchmark five-year government bonds lost 0.8 basis point at 4.008 percent.

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European shares edged lower on Tuesday as hopes for an imminent de-escalation in the Middle East conflict faded following fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, triggering renewed geopolitical uncertainty across global financial markets.

The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index slipped 0.2% to 630.33 points by 0833 GMT, retreating from gains that had recently pushed it close to record levels.

On Monday, the index had closed at its highest level since late February, briefly coming within 1% of an all-time high on optimism that diplomatic progress could soon ease tensions in the region.

That momentum quickly reversed after renewed military action and comments from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said negotiations with Iran could take “a few days,” tempering expectations of a near-term resolution.

Oil Prices Jump as Hormuz Risks Return to Focus

Global energy markets reacted sharply to the escalation, with Brent crude rising more than 3%, reigniting inflation concerns across energy-importing economies, particularly in the euro zone.

The market remains highly sensitive to risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which a significant share of the world’s oil flows.

Analysts warned that any sustained disruption in the region could deepen inflationary pressures just as central banks weigh their next policy moves.

Airlines and Autos Under Pressure

Travel and transport-related stocks were among the biggest losers in Tuesday’s session.

Airlines including Lufthansa and Ryanair fell 1.4% and 0.7% respectively, reflecting investor concerns that higher fuel costs could squeeze margins.

Luxury and automotive stocks also came under pressure after Ferrari dropped sharply following the unveiling of its first fully electric vehicle.

The decline was compounded by a broader sell-off in the European autos sector, which fell 1.6% as investors reassessed competition risks from Chinese EV manufacturers and weakening global demand trends.

Market Sentiment Balances War Risk and Policy Signals

Despite renewed volatility, some investors noted that markets remain partially supported by expectations that diplomacy could still stabilize the situation.

One portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton said markets were reacting cautiously because investors believe a potential agreement could still restore stability in the Strait of Hormuz and normalize energy flows.

However, uncertainty around timing and scope continues to limit upside momentum in equities.

Inflation and Central Bank Policy Back in Focus

Attention is now shifting toward upcoming inflation data across major euro zone economies and the United States, which will help shape expectations for future monetary policy.

European Central Bank policymaker Yiannis Stournaras signaled that any persistent inflation overshoot would require a cautious shift toward tighter policy.

Market pricing currently suggests at least two further 25-basis-point interest rate moves before year-end, according to LSEG data.

Corporate Movers: Winners and Losers

While broader markets weakened, some stocks moved against the trend.

Kingfisher rose 2% after maintaining its full-year profit guidance, easing concerns about demand softness in the home improvement sector.

However, the overall tone remained risk-off as investors continued to weigh geopolitical escalation against macroeconomic uncertainty.

Analysis

The latest pullback in European equities reflects a familiar pattern: markets oscillating between hopes of geopolitical de-escalation and fears of renewed conflict risk in the Middle East.

The key transmission channel remains energy. With Europe heavily dependent on imported oil and gas, any disruption involving Iran or the Strait of Hormuz immediately feeds into inflation expectations, bond yields, and corporate earnings outlooks.

At the same time, equity markets had recently been pricing in a relatively optimistic scenario in which diplomatic talks would gradually stabilize the region. That positioning left stocks vulnerable to abrupt reversals when military developments resurfaced.

Sectoral divergence also highlights how uneven the impact of geopolitical shocks can be. Energy-sensitive sectors such as airlines and autos are under pressure, while defensive or domestically oriented companies remain relatively insulated.

The broader question for markets is whether this marks a temporary setback in diplomatic momentum or a deeper breakdown in expectations for a negotiated settlement. If tensions persist, volatility in oil markets is likely to remain the dominant driver of global equity sentiment in the near term.

With information from Reuters.