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During his first year, U. S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive negotiating style led to some gains with other countries, but when it comes to Iran, this approach seems to be failing. Instead of softening his stance, Trump has shown increasing frustration over the ongoing crisis, which has lasted for 11 weeks, and his tough tactics might hinder efforts to end the conflict that is impacting the global economy.

Analysts believe that one key issue is the Iranian leaders’ need to maintain their image at home, complicating any negotiations. Despite the U. S. and Israeli strikes weakening Iran’s military, Iran still controls the important Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to exert significant influence. Trump’s strategy has been marked by extreme demands and mixed messages, which may not lead to a quick resolution. His desire to frame any outcome as a U. S. victory, while expecting total defeat for Iran, poses further challenges, as no government, including Iran’s, can afford to be seen as surrendering.

The deadlock with Iran happens as Trump faces domestic pressures, including rising gasoline prices and low approval ratings due to an unpopular war ahead of the midterm elections. White House spokesperson Olivia Wales defended Trump’s tactics, claiming that he is a skilled negotiator and suggesting that Iran is becoming more desperate for a resolution.

In a notable threat, Trump warned on social media of destroying Iran’s civilization if a deal is not reached. He later backed down but has repeated his threats to damaging Iranian infrastructure. Trump’s harsh language towards Iranian leaders has continued, and while he claims Iran is on the verge of collapse, the Iranian response has been to portray their endurance as a victory.

Inside the White House, there has been no effort to moderate Trump’s messaging. Polls show his core supporters remain behind him, but some former allies now criticize his extreme threats and the ongoing conflict.

Some of Trump’s strongest statements on his Truth Social platform have come at crucial moments, like when he announced a blockade of Iran’s ports, which led to Iranian retaliation and threatened a fragile ceasefire. He recently rejected a peace proposal from Iran, calling it a “piece of garbage. ” Analysts like Dennis Ross said Trump’s lack of consistency in messaging undermines his intentions. During a visit to Beijing, Trump avoided harsh comments on Iran, focusing instead on relations with China, an ally of Iran.

Some experts believe it would be beneficial for Trump to lower his rhetoric if he truly wants to resolve the conflict. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, criticized Trump for talking too much. Trump claims that his unpredictability is a negotiation tactic, which has sometimes worked in trade discussions. However, in situations like the military actions in Venezuela and the Gaza ceasefire talks, his pressure tactics had positive outcomes.

Despite his desire to seem dangerous in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, analysts say this strategy is unlikely to succeed, given the entrenched nature of Iran’s leadership and their pride. Trump’s threats may have strengthened Iran’s current hardline rulers, who trust him even less after U. S. attacks during negotiations. Nate Swanson, a former State Department official, noted that the expectation of Iran capitulating under pressure is a misconception.

Barbara Leaf pointed out that Trump’s approach has been based on a misunderstanding of Iran’s resilience. Some experts warn that his tactics could backfire, making Iran more determined to develop nuclear capabilities for self-protection. There is a mismatch in timelines, as Trump prefers quick deals while Iran often prolongs negotiations. Academic Abdulkhaleq Abdullah suggested that Iran’s inflexibility is a bigger issue than Trump’s statements. Trita Parsi argued that Iranian leaders might see Trump’s unpredictable behavior as a sign of desperation, leading them to wait him out.

With information from Reuters

For decades, France and all of Europe have been key partners, providing diverse development support for Africa. But the time has indeed changed. With the heightening of geopolitical threats and tensions, France struggles to sustain its presence in Africa, targeting to increase its business profile by leveraging the Anglophone community of potential investors in the forthcoming investment conference in Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, located in East Africa. The France-backed and organized conference marks a distinctive commitment to expanding financing across the continent.

According to authentic reports, Kenya and France will co-host the ‘Africa Forward Summit’ in Nairobi on May 11–12, under the theme ‘Africa-France Partnerships for Innovation and Growth,’ marking the first time this summit is held in an English-speaking African country. President Emmanuel Macron and President William Ruto will lead the summit, focusing on economic partnerships, digital innovation, green industrialization, and global financial reform.

Details of the summit are listed as follows:

Significance: The move signals a shift in France’s Africa strategy beyond Francophone regions. It highlights Kenya’s role as a major diplomatic and regional hub.

Key Topics: Discussions will cover sustainable finance, energy transition, health, agriculture, and AI, aiming for an action-oriented approach to economic growth.

Attendees: Over 30 heads of state and 2,000 CEOs/business leaders from France and Africa are expected to attend.

Structure: The event includes high-level state meetings, a business forum to explore investment, and a sports segment.

Objective: To strengthen the Africa-France partnership and reform global financial architecture to ensure better access to capital and signify a new, balanced economic relationship between the two regions.

French corporate executives are also stepping up their engagement in Africa’s innovation economy, eyeing the wide investment landscape through a new ‘Global Gateway Strategy’ with the EU allocating €300 billion ($340 billion), signaling a deepening of financial ties with Africa. Ready-made funds are a contributing capital to support early- and growth-stage startups, which reflects a broader shift in how European investors view long-term business with Africa today. 

While France indicates a long-term potential driven by demographics, digital adoption, and expanding urban markets, African entrepreneurs are increasingly positioning themselves to take advantage, teaming up for development priorities, innovation expertise, financial support, and France’s investment strengths. What is important here is that the May conference would offer insights into the growing appetite for Link-Up Africa and signal the involvement of French financial institutions and the expected roles in supporting economic diversification across Africa’s emerging markets.

Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera has acknowledged the drastic changes, proposing a shift from an aid-driven relationship, at least, to win-win investments that are more purposeful, describing it as a new level kind of partnership. “We are saying economic integration on the continent should be prioritized as much as we have bilateral agreements with external nations outside the continent,” Chakwera said. “We need also to find mutual ways of facilitating the implementation of development projects, progressive ways of trading, and attractive policy approaches with the involvement of European investors in economic sectors in Africa.” 

President William Ruto and French President Emmanuel Macron both acknowledged the strategic pathway with a focus on unlocking Africa’s development potential, driving sustainable industrialization, and targeting economic growth across Africa. Harnessing the untapped resources and utilizing the huge human resources is France’s priority in consolidating the existing bilateral engagement and collaboration.

In a statement, President Ruto underlined the summit reflects a shared commitment to strengthening bilateral ties and deepening multilateral cooperation to advance global goals. Ruto further described the summit as part of the renewal of relations between France and Africa, emphasizing genuine partnerships and shared progress. The agenda will focus on key areas including reform of the international financial architecture, energy transition, green industrialization, the blue economy and connectivity, artificial intelligence, sustainable agriculture, and health. It will spotlight the role of young entrepreneurs, civil society, and international organizations in shaping solutions to pressing global and regional challenges.

In addition, the European Union countries are increasingly strong economic partners for many African countries. It therefore behooves African leaders and business people to necessarily explore available possibilities and windows that have been opened. The EU has unveiled a €300 billion ($340 billion) alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative—an investment program the bloc claims will create links, not dependencies.

In an official document, it said the European Commission is broadly examining the following:

– Support AfCFTA implementation and the green transition;

– Improve the trade and investment climate between the EU and Africa;

– Reinforce high-level public-private dialogue;

– Enhance long-term dialogue structures between EU and Africa business associations;

– Unlock new business and investment opportunities, including in the areas of manufacturing and agro-processing as well as regional and continental value chain development.

It is further included in the joint communication of the European Commission (EC) entitled “Toward a Comprehensive Strategy with Africa,” which sets forth what the EU plans with Africa. The Joint EU-Africa Strategy takes into cognizance the most common interests, such as climate change, global security, and the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Just as China, India, and the United States do, so also France and other European countries are exploring emerging opportunities offered by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which provides unique and valuable access to an integrated African market of 1.4 billion people. In practical reality, it aims at creating a continental market for goods and services, with free movement of business people and investments in Africa.

Analysts, however, say deepening economic partnership and investment ties between Europe and Africa could rapidly change the landscape in Africa. But challenges significantly remain, particularly the official state bureaucracy combined with infrastructure and security in the continent. France has currently broadened its scope, moving more toward Anglophone African countries and courting them with trade and investment. According to source EU data 2024, aggregate trade was €355 billion between Europe and Africa.

According to Isabelle Herbert-Collet, a customer insights and market expert, a new approach must factor in what she referred to as “local exchange” in the new relationship. “It’s not only about investment; it is about imagining the right products and services and simply facilitating the intercultural exchange,” she said.

Looking ahead, France intends to capitalize on Africa’s most transformative economic sectors and make strategic moves by collaborating, as mutual partnership remains dynamic and adaptable. Despite growing geopolitical tensions, France’s approach and its long-standing ties still offer an alternative partnership model that many African leaders find very appealing. 

The challenge for the future will be to ensure these ties evolve in ways that serve Africa’s development needs while navigating the increasing complexity of global politics. As Africa is indiscriminately open for business, on May 11-12, African and French heads of state and government meet together to chart a new path for innovation, growth, and mutual cooperation. Kenya will hold this investment summit for France to position Africa as a key partner in innovation and economic development while strengthening bilateral ties with France and advancing further Africa’s collective agenda on the international stage.

Chinese military and intelligence analyses for 2025 and 2026 indicate that China views the expansion of the Egyptian Armed Forces in establishing numerous naval and air bases, such as the Bernice and Gargoub bases, with strategic interest. Beijing considers this trend, spearheaded by the Egyptian political leadership under President El-Sisi and the Egyptian Ministry of Defense, a vital component of a comprehensive strategic partnership between Egypt and China, aimed at securing shared interests in strategically vital regions. Chinese intelligence and military agencies view the Egyptian expansion in establishing military bases, such as the Mohamed Naguib base, the July 3 base, and bases east and west of the Suez Canal, as part of a comprehensive Chinese strategy to develop the Egyptian Armed Forces and enhance their deterrent capabilities against Beijing’s adversaries in the region. This perspective aligns with Beijing’s view of Egypt as a key strategic partner in Africa and the Middle East. The Chinese military establishment’s vision for this Egyptian military development of air and naval bases up to 2026 can be detailed, as follows: Supporting the Egyptian political leadership’s vision, from a Chinese perspective, of Egyptian military development under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, is seen as a serious attempt to modernize the army and transform it into a smart deterrent force capable of protecting national security and the country’s economic interests. This aligns with China’s +1 strategy (localization), as China seeks to leverage the development of Egyptian bases to become centers for localizing Chinese military technology in Egypt, particularly in the areas of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), such as the Wing Loong and advanced air defense systems, such as the HQ-9B.

In this context, China views Egypt’s expansion in establishing military bases, such as the Mohamed Naguib Base, the July 3 Base, and the bases east and west of the Suez Canal, with strategic interest as a crucial element in strengthening the comprehensive strategic partnership between Cairo and Beijing. China considers these Egyptian military bases, especially those located on the Mediterranean Sea and near the Suez Canal. Bases like the July 3rd Air Base serve as vital support points for protecting China’s commercial interests and the routes of its Belt and Road Initiative, which passes through the Egyptian Suez Canal. Egypt represents a cornerstone in China’s 21st-century strategy. Therefore, China aims to bolster Egypt’s deterrent capabilities (a defense partnership). Chinese military officials believe that modernizing the Egyptian armed forces through these naval and air bases and localizing Chinese defense industries in Cairo, in accordance with President Sisi’s vision, enhances the independence of Egyptian military decision-making, paves the way for multipolarity, supports developing countries in the Global South, and contributes to regional stability. Relations between Egypt and China have moved beyond mere arms deals to the localization of Chinese technology within Egypt, enabling Egypt to confront regional challenges more effectively and creating a kind of regional balance of power. Here, Beijing, by supporting Egyptian military expansion through these bases, aims to create a strategic balance in the region amidst a growing Egyptian-Chinese rapprochement seen as an alternative to or complement to traditional partnerships with the West. This can be inferred from the military exercises. The air capabilities and joint military exercises between Egypt and China are reflected here. Joint air exercises, such as Eagles of Civilization 2025, and cooperation at Wadi Abu Rish Air Base are Egyptian-Chinese joint training exercises aimed at exchanging expertise in air combat and protecting maritime routes. This coincides with Egypt’s interest in military and arms deals with China, such as the J-10C. Other Egyptian military negotiations with China regarding the purchase of advanced submarines, known as the Yuan class, are also underway. This reduces Egypt’s military dependence on Washington and the West and strengthens the Chinese presence in the Egyptian military arsenal. This reflects a convergence of military visions between the two countries, with China supporting Egypt’s efforts to modernize its military infrastructure. The new bases are considered a cornerstone for securing shared interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea.

Beijing also aims to strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership. Here, the Chinese vision extends beyond mere arms deals; it views this as a core partnership aimed at establishing a broad military alliance with Egypt to develop the Chinese military Silk Road. This includes joint operational planning and training exercises, as demonstrated in the Civilization Eagles 2025 maneuvers. China seeks to effect a comprehensive shift in the regional balance of power. Chinese intelligence believes that establishing bases and developing naval and air forces will grant Egypt strategic independence and reduce its dependence on the West. This, in turn, opens the door for China to enhance its influence in the region through defense cooperation, thereby securing shared Chinese and Egyptian military interests. Beijing considers securing Egyptian bases for maritime routes (the Suez Canal) and the Red Sea to be in line with Chinese economic and security interests within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. In general, the Chinese military establishment views Cairo as working to build a strong regional pivot point, and Beijing sees this expansion as an opportunity to deepen defense and technological ties with Cairo, paving the way for the formal declaration of a Chinese-Egyptian military Silk Road partnership.

China views the new Egyptian military bases as a means of protecting its strategic interests within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. These bases, particularly those located on the Red Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Suez Canal, occupy vital maritime chokepoints, and China considers them a guarantee for the security of its international trade routes. The relationship between Egypt and China has evolved from mere arms purchases to the localization of defense industries, such as the production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and electronic warfare systems, increasing Egypt’s military reliance on Chinese technology. These Egyptian military bases, which enhance Egypt’s rapid deployment capabilities, align with China’s interests in establishing a multipolar regional order that reduces American influence in the Middle East. Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security reports indicate a qualitative shift in Egyptian military doctrine. Chinese military institutions affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army analyze that Egyptian military bases, such as the July 3rd base, provide strategic depth and protection for economic assets (gas fields and the Dabaa nuclear power plant), thus contributing to the economic stability in which China participates. For this reason, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is seeking to train and qualify the Egyptian military elite through the Military Academy for Advanced Studies as an alternative to Western and American training.

The Chinese intelligence and military establishments view the Egyptian army’s expansionist vision in establishing naval and air bases within Egypt as part of the development strategy adopted by the Egyptian Armed Forces and the political leadership of President El-Sisi. This strategy aims to complete the modernization of the Egyptian Armed Forces and advance the Chinese military Silk Road with Egypt’s assistance. China supports the Egyptian Armed Forces’ efforts to modernize Egyptian military infrastructure, considering the new Egyptian military bases a cornerstone for securing China’s shared interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea. China views these new Egyptian military bases, particularly on the Red Sea, as essential for securing Chinese trade routes (the military/maritime Silk Road) and mitigating risks. In addition to the significant role Egypt plays for China as a regional power center and a key player in the balance of power, relevant military circles in Beijing analyze the modernization of the Egyptian army as a center of gravity for stability in the Middle East and Africa. A strong and stable army serves China’s interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. Therefore, China translates its vision into tangible support, including modernizing Egypt’s military infrastructure to align with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in its maritime, air, and naval components and equipping it with advanced weapons systems.

Based on the preceding understanding and analysis, we conclude that the new Egyptian military bases (naval and air) are considered, according to the Chinese military and strategic vision, strategic strengths. Their benefits extend beyond Egypt, securing China’s commercial and military interests in the Mediterranean and Red Seas. They also provide a Chinese technological alternative in a region previously dominated by Western and American platforms, paving the way for China’s gradual expansion of its military Silk Road initiative.

Three-man forward lines have been a staple tactic throughout the history of football.

But they have arguably never been as popular as they have over the last 15 or so years.

It is a resurgence that is largely down to Barcelona’s success under Pep Guardiola between 2008 and 2012.

Guardiola helped Barcelona win two Champions Leagues and three La Liga titles with a dominant possession-based style.

It was a revolutionary system that relied on both the midfield and front line – operating with a recognised number nine – to be fluid in and out of possession.

Nine‑time Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi was usually the most central attacker, though he often dropped deep to either drag defenders out of position and create space for his team-mates, or to create a numerical advantage in midfield.

Either way, the end result was a fluid style of football that was practically impossible to stop and resulted in Barcelona claiming 14 trophies during Guardiola’s time at the helm.

Since then, three-man forward lines have become fairly prominent in Europe, with the likes of Real Madrid and PSG deploying similar tactics in the years that followed.

In the Premier League, however, the forward line that resembled Guardiola’s side most closely was Liverpool’s Champions League and Premier League-winning trio of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah.

During their five seasons together at Anfield, Firmino was deployed as the Reds’ central attacker and, similar to Messi, was responsible for dropping between the lines, linking play with the midfielders and ultimately creating space for Mane and Salah to run in behind.

The trio is widely regarded as one of the greatest forward lines in the history of English football, having helped Jurgen Klopp’s side win a haul of major trophies.

In August 2026, Kazakhstan will hold an unusual election. The newly established unicameral parliament—the “Kurultai”—will, for the first time, be formed entirely through party lists. Independent candidates and regional representatives will no longer enter the core of state power. As a representative institution of so-called “steppe democracy,” the Kurultai has undergone multiple transformations throughout history, both in its functions and in the composition of its participants. According to recent constitutional arrangements, this mechanism has been elevated to an unprecedented level. This raises a key question: what direction does this transformation reveal in the current round of political modernization?

Historically, the Kurultai functioned as an important mechanism of consultation in steppe society, not as a system of mass participation, but as a platform composed of multiple layers of elite actors. Its participants included khans and sultans who held political authority, biys who were responsible for adjudication and governance, military leaders who organized mobilization in times of war, as well as tribal elders and influential akyns and zhyrau who shaped public discourse. In addressing critical issues such as succession, warfare, and internal conflict, the Kurultai did not rely on formalized procedures or fixed institutional rules. Instead, decisions were reached through authority, negotiation, and consensus. Although ordinary people did not possess direct institutional channels of participation, their interests and attitudes indirectly constrained decision-making through tribal structures, public opinion, and their willingness to comply with and implement decisions.

During the Soviet period and the early years of Kazakhstan’s independence, the Kurultai gradually lost its function as an operative political institution and became a symbol of historical memory and cultural identity. It was not until 2022, amid a serious crisis of political trust, that this traditional symbol was revived and institutionalized as the “National Kurultai,” reintroduced as a new format of public dialogue within the framework of state governance. Its declared purpose is to strengthen interaction between the government and society. In terms of composition, the National Kurultai formally continues the tradition of “broad participation,” including regional representatives, members of parliament, professionals from various sectors, and leaders of social organizations with a degree of public influence. However, this diversity is largely structural rather than functional. It reflects broad inclusion, but does not necessarily translate into a substantive mechanism for reconciling competing interests. The institution lacks the capacity to independently coordinate diverse social demands.

Moreover, the agenda-setting process and operational logic of the National Kurultai remain distinctly top-down. Key issues are primarily defined by the state, while participants tend to act as interpreters and endorsers of pre-established policy directions. In this sense, “consultation” often takes the form of explaining and legitimizing the state agenda. Through the participation and symbolic endorsement of elite actors, the state is able to construct an image of “broad public dialogue,” thereby reinforcing the legitimacy of its reform agenda. In this respect, the National Kurultai should not be seen as a simple continuation of a traditional consultative institution, but rather as an institutionalized platform for political communication and discursive integration. Its core function lies not in generating genuinely competitive policy alternatives, but in organizing a process of “consensus production” aimed at shaping values, mobilizing society, and reproducing the legitimacy of ongoing reforms.

In 2026, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced a major reform of Kazakhstan’s parliamentary system, proposing the transition to a unicameral “Kurultai Parliament.” Its members will be elected entirely through proportional representation based on party lists. The reform abolishes both the presidential quota and the special quota previously allocated to the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan. At the same time, quota guarantees for women, youth, and persons with disabilities will be retained, but incorporated into party list mechanisms rather than being directly allocated by the state.

From the perspective of institutional design, this reform strengthens the role of political parties as key intermediaries within the political system, positioning them as the primary channel through which social demands are transmitted to the state. In the context of electoral competition, parties are expected to secure support by more effectively representing public interests, while also integrating fragmented social demands. Compared with the previous mixed model of representation, which included multiple categories of actors, a party-centered system enhances the coherence of political positions: social demands are systematically aggregated and restructured before entering the political arena, thereby improving, to some extent, the efficiency of policy articulation and decision-making.

Building on this, if meaningful and substantive competition among political parties can be established, this model has the potential not only to integrate social interests but also to more fully reflect the diversity of social groups. Political parties could function not merely as instruments of organization and coordination, but also as a crucial link between diverse societal demands and the process of state decision-making—balancing efficiency in representation with breadth and inclusiveness.Under such conditions, the consultative model of the Kurultai may gradually evolve from an elite-driven mechanism of integration into an institutionalized system of interest articulation grounded in party competition, thereby enhancing, to a certain extent, its capacity for bottom-up representation.

The United Arab Emirates’ announcement of its withdrawal from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026, represents a major strategic shift in the global energy market, with direct and significant implications for China, the world’s largest oil importer. The primary impact of this UAE withdrawal on China is the enhancement of Chinese energy security, as it will increase available supplies. The UAE will now be able to raise its production towards its target of 5 million barrels per day by 2027, without being bound by OPEC quotas. This expansion will provide China with a substantial and stable source of oil outside the constraints of production alliances. Furthermore, the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC will impact China’s diversification policy, as China relies on imports to cover approximately 70% of its oil needs. The UAE’s departure will grant Beijing greater flexibility in purchasing from the spot market at potentially more competitive prices.

This also has a significant impact on import costs (prices) through prolonged downward pressure. The UAE’s increased oil production (up to 680,000 barrels per day above previous levels) is expected to put downward pressure on global Brent crude prices in the medium term (12-24 months), thus reducing China’s energy import bill. This could lead to short-term volatility, as, despite the potential benefit, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (due to current regional tensions in April 2026) limits the immediate ability to capitalize on the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC, since most of the UAE’s exports to China pass through this waterway.

China could benefit from the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC by enhancing its capacity for financial and trade cooperation and expanding trade in local currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan. The UAE’s departure from OPEC could (facilitate the expansion of oil trade agreements) in rubles, rupees, and yuan, moving away from OPEC’s traditional dollar pricing. This aligns with China’s drive to internationalize the yuan. Such a move could boost joint investments, given China’s existing stakes in UAE oil concessions. With Abu Dhabi freed from restrictions, these Chinese investments could generate higher returns through increased production. Furthermore, China might leverage the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC to bolster the strategic and geopolitical value of weakening OPEC’s influence. This withdrawal diminishes OPEC’s ability to control global supply, which benefits major consuming nations like China by reducing the likelihood of price shocks resulting from collective production cuts.

In this context, Chinese discussions and analyses have intensified, examining the potential benefits for China from the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. Chinese experts are analyzing the likelihood and impact of such a move should it materialize, particularly given the UAE’s increasing production capacity and its desire for greater flexibility. If we assume the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC is indeed the case, China stands to be the biggest beneficiary for the following reasons. First, it would break the dominance of the petrodollar. The departure of a player the size of the UAE from traditional OPEC constraints opens the door wide to bilateral agreements for pricing oil in digital yuan (or Chinese yuan), thus supporting Beijing’s strategy of internationalizing the yuan to reduce its dependence on the Western financial system (SWIFT). In addition to the increased Chinese-Emirati supply, since Chinese companies such as CNPC and CNOOC hold stakes in oil concessions in Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s release from OPEC production quotas means these companies can increase production and secure China’s growing energy needs at preferential prices and with favorable terms. This facilitates the revitalization of joint UAE-China investments, allowing for deeper Chinese capital flow into the UAE’s refining and petrochemical sector. The exchange of finished goods and crude oil within an economic cycle based on local currencies reduces conversion costs and the risks associated with dollar fluctuations. This supports China’s policy of moving towards BRICS+. As the UAE is a member of the BRICS group, any move away from traditional OPEC frameworks aligns with the group’s overall direction to create a parallel financial system that supports the ruble, rupee, and yuan. This scenario, if it were to occur, would transform the relationship from one of buyer and seller to a comprehensive strategic partnership, making energy the driving force behind the new financial system that China seeks to lead.

Accordingly, the UAE’s withdrawal represents a strategic gain for China in terms of increased supply and potential cost reductions, but maximizing the benefit remains contingent on the stability of shipping lanes in the Arabian Gulf.

Fifty-nine years of membership, ended with a statement on a Tuesday and an effective date of Friday. The United Arab Emirates announced it will exit OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, citing national interests, its evolving energy profile, and a long-term strategic vision that no longer aligns with the organization’s direction. The Energy Minister did not consult Saudi Arabia before making the announcement. He did not raise the issue with any other member country. He simply said the time had come. 

The timing tells the whole story. OPEC was preparing to meet in Vienna on Wednesday when the news landed. The Iran war had already wiped out 7.88 million barrels per day of OPEC’s production in March alone, resulting in the biggest supply collapse for the producers’ group in recent decades, surpassing even the 2020 Covid shock and the 1970s oil crisis. The UAE had been absorbing Iranian drone and missile attacks for weeks. The Strait of Hormuz, through which the UAE ships its own oil, has been functionally closed or severely restricted since early March. And sitting across the OPEC table was Iran, the country that had been targeting UAE infrastructure repeatedly, and Russia, which had been a steadfast partner to Iran throughout the conflict.

Walking out was not an impulsive decision. It was the logical conclusion of a calculation that had been building for years.

Why Abu Dhabi Was Already Done With OPEC 

The UAE’s frustration with OPEC production quotas is not new. The quotas have capped UAE output at around 3.2 million barrels per day, while the country has the ambition and the capacity to produce closer to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, suggesting production could almost double without OPEC’s constraints. For a country that has invested heavily in expanding ADNOC’s capacity and has the infrastructure to back it up, being told by a cartel committee how much it can produce has become an increasingly poor trade. 

The UAE’s sovereign wealth fund is so large that its economy is now more significantly tied to global economic growth than to the global price of oil. That shift in economic identity matters enormously for understanding why OPEC membership has become structurally uncomfortable. OPEC exists to keep oil prices elevated through production discipline. The UAE increasingly benefits from a growing global economy that demands more energy, more investment, and more trade, all of which are better served by producing at full capacity and building relationships with the countries that need what Abu Dhabi has to sell. 

An energy industry source familiar with the decision said the UAE felt it was “the right time to leave” and that “this decision is good for consumers and good for the world,” adding that the UAE would gradually increase production to supply global markets once freedom of navigation is restored in the Strait of Hormuz. The framing is deliberate. The UAE is not positioning itself as a cartel defector but as a responsible producer responding to a global energy emergency, which is a considerably more defensible diplomatic position. 

The Saudi Rupture Running Underneath It All

The official UAE statement was carefully worded, full of appreciation for “brothers and friends within the group” and “the highest respect for the Saudis for leading OPEC.” None of that diplomatic courtesy changes the underlying reality, which is that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been on a collision course for some time and the OPEC exit is the most visible expression of that tension yet.

The two countries had joined a coalition to fight the Houthis in Yemen in 2015, but that coalition broke down into open recriminations in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for UAE-backed Yemeni separatists. That incident was the visible rupture of a relationship that had been quietly fraying for years over economic competition, differing visions for regional leadership, and diverging approaches to normalization, China, and the post-war order. Within OPEC, the two countries have clashed repeatedly over quota allocations, with the UAE consistently arguing it deserves a larger share based on its expanded capacity. 

The OPEC exit does not resolve any of those tensions. It sidesteps them entirely, which is probably the more elegant solution. By leaving, the UAE removes itself from a framework where Saudi Arabia holds dominant influence and gains the freedom to pursue its own production and partnership strategy without needing Riyadh’s agreement. That is a significant shift in the regional power dynamic, and it happened without a single confrontational statement.

What Remains of OPEC Now 

The UAE’s exit could prompt other members to follow suit, with analysts pointing to Kazakhstan as another significant producer that wants to grow beyond its current quota constraints. “If there is a time to leave, now is the time,” one Dubai-based energy consultant told CNN. 

The cartel’s power has always rested on a specific mechanism: spare production capacity held back from the market to stabilize prices. That spare capacity is concentrated almost entirely in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, with the other nine member countries possessing little to none. Removing the UAE from that equation means OPEC’s effective spare capacity narrows considerably, and the burden of price stabilization falls almost entirely on Riyadh and Kuwait City. Saudi Arabia will hold an even greater share of the cartel’s remaining leverage, but leverage over a smaller and weaker institution is not the same as leverage over a healthy one.

OPEC has lost members before, but the UAE is a much larger producer than previous departures, and its absence may over time pose an existential risk to the cartel’s sustainability. The organization that has shaped global energy politics since 1960 is now facing its most significant structural test, and it is doing so while simultaneously dealing with a historic supply shock from the Iran war, a closed strait, and a global economy pricing in the possibility that the disruption is not temporary. 

The Geopolitical Implications

Freed from production quotas, the UAE’s most immediate strategic move is likely to deepen its relationship with the countries that need its oil most urgently, and China sits at the top of that list. More production could help the UAE improve ties with oil-importing partners such as China, and given the economic damage caused by the Iran war, the prospect of maximizing energy revenues now is undoubtedly attractive to Abu Dhabi. 

The UAE-US relationship also stands to benefit. With the UAE free to leverage its spare capacity in pursuit of its own strategic interests, the move will likely strengthen the UAE-US relationship, particularly in relation to managing the strategic petroleum reserve and responding to the ongoing Hormuz supply shock. Trump has been publicly critical of OPEC for years, accusing the cartel of exploiting American military protection to keep prices artificially high. An OPEC that is smaller and weaker, with a major member now operating independently and aligned with US interests, is a more congenial arrangement from Washington’s perspective. 

For the global energy market, the picture is more complicated. Once the Strait reopens fully and UAE production ramps up without quota constraints, additional supply should exert downward pressure on prices that have been elevated since February. Whether that actually happens depends on a sequence of events, including a durable Iran settlement and the restoration of free navigation through Hormuz, that are still very much in progress.

Our Take: A Geopolitical Move Dressed as an Energy Decision 

The UAE’s OPEC exit is not primarily an energy story. It is a geopolitical statement about where Abu Dhabi sees itself in the emerging regional order, and the answer is: outside the frameworks that no longer serve its interests, and free to build the bilateral relationships that do. The exit from OPEC follows the same strategic logic as the Abraham Accords, the Huawei contracts, the US base agreement, and the China infrastructure ties. The UAE has been running a multi-alignment strategy for years, positioning itself as indispensable to every major power simultaneously, and OPEC membership was becoming a constraint on that strategy rather than an asset.

What happens to OPEC matters for energy markets in the short term. What the UAE’s departure signals about the fracturing of Gulf institutional solidarity matters considerably more for the regional order that everyone in the Middle East is trying to rebuild in the aftermath of a war that nobody fully planned for and nobody has yet fully ended.

The deeper story is what the UAE’s exit reveals about the post-war Middle East taking shape right now. The institutions that governed the region’s energy politics, security arrangements, and diplomatic alignments for decades were built in a different world, one where the Cold War defined choices, where oil producers had unified interests, and where the US sat at the center of every meaningful regional framework. That world is gone. What the Iran war accelerated, and what the UAE’s OPEC exit makes structurally visible, is that the Gulf’s most capable states are no longer willing to subordinate their individual strategic interests to collective frameworks that were designed for a regional order that no longer exists. 

Abu Dhabi did not leave OPEC because of a quota dispute. It left because it has decided that in the world emerging from this war, the countries that move fastest, align most flexibly, and free themselves from inherited institutional constraints are the ones that will define what comes next. Whether that calculation proves correct depends on what the Islamabad talks produce, how quickly the Strait reopens, and whether the ceasefire holds long enough for the region to build something more durable than a pause. But the signal Abu Dhabi sent on Tuesday was unmistakable, and every government in the region heard it.

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Guardians fan Evelyn Moore got a pretty cool souvenir from Monday’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays — a two-run home run ball hit by Cleveland second baseman Daniel Schneemann.

The 11-year-old softball player from New Philadelphia, Ohio, almost got the ball right after Schneemann hit it in the bottom of the fifth inning.

But, as seen in video footage that quickly went viral on social media, a man appeared to snatch it away as Evelyn was trying to pick it up near the rail in the left-center field stands at Progressive Field.

He eventually gave it to her, however, and now the girl’s mother wants folks on social media to leave him alone.

“This man’s life shouldn’t be ruined over this,” Nikki Moore-DeVore said. “Jokes and memes are one thing, but it’s getting excessive. It’s too much.”

Moore-DeVore said her family — which also includes her husband, Jon DeVore, and her son, Theo Moore, 9 — attend several Guardians games a year. They sit in the outfield stands, where Evelyn — an avid baseball fan and baseball card collector — likes to take her glove down to the rail and try to persuade Cleveland outfielders to toss her a ball.

Video of Schneemann’s home run shows the ball flying over the left-center field wall, where a bearded man wearing a throwback Cleveland Indians hat and T-shirt tried to catch it in the air. Instead, it bounced off his hands toward the rail to his left.

Cleveland Guardians’ Daniel Schneemann, right, is greeted at the plate by teammate David Fry after hitting a two-run home run in the fifth inning of a game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday in Cleveland.

(Sue Ogrocki / Associated Press)

Evelyn ran down from her seat two rows up, dropped to the ground and attempted to secure the ball in front of her. The man ran over and also dropped to the ground next to her, starting a brief struggle for control of the ball.

The man eventually emerged triumphantly.

“I did not really see how the ball came over to us. I just saw it bounce in our direction and my daughter go down to get it,” Moore-DeVore said. “And I saw the scuffle kind of from behind, but I couldn’t see much of the hands or anything like that. I just saw the shoulders shifting around.

“And then she got up empty-handed, and people started booing. The guys sitting in front of me were like, ‘That was her ball!’ My husband was booing. He was not happy, but we didn’t want to ruin the game.”

Evelyn also was upset by the turn of events, her mother said, “but she didn’t cry.”

“She actually took it like a champ,” Moore-DeVore said. “Every inning, she still went up to the rail to try to get one of the players to throw a ball to her. She didn’t give up.”

Meanwhile, Theo approached the man to request he return the ball to his sister. Moore-DeVore said her son told her the man politely refused.

“I was just proud of him for going over there and taking it upon himself to try to help his sister,” Moore-DeVore said.

The Rays broadcast of the game showed the incident involving Evelyn and the man, with the announcers taking the girl’s side. On social media, fans shared the video and shamed the man for his behavior, with some looking to make his identity public.

Later in the game, Rays sideline reporter Ryan Bass visited the family at their seats and presented both kids with baseballs.

That’s when Evelyn became emotional.

“She cried happy tears,” her mother said. “I think she just felt seen. The incident made her feel small, and Ryan made her feel seen.”

Bass posted about the moment on X.

“We had to make it right,” Bass wrote, adding in a separate post: “We got the chance to make a sweet little girl’s night. There’s nothing better. Kindness is free. Always remember that.”

Before the bottom of the eighth inning, Evelyn went down to her usual post at the rail to try to persuade an outfielder to toss her a ball. She returned with the home run ball from three innings earlier.

“She came back with the biggest smile on her face: ‘Mom, he gave it back to me!’” Moore-DeVore said. “The guys in front of me were like, ‘yeah, he’s, like, getting a lot of social media flack.’ … I’m sure he realized eventually that it was probably the wrong action to take, just not good etiquette.”

In return, Moore-DeVore said, Theo offered the man — whose name has not been revealed despite the internet’s attempts — one of the balls that Bass had given him and his sister.

“He respectfully declined,” she said, “so my son gave it to another kid.”

Moore-DeVore said both of her kids are “on cloud nine” over how everything turned out — and she wants everyone else to get over it as well.

“I don’t want this one moment to ruin this guy,” she said. “And my kids, they wouldn’t want that. They’re sweet kids. I feel like, if kids their age can forgive and offer him a peace offering, grown adults and other fans can, too.”

A weekend in the desert is a go-to getaway for Southern Californians — even if you’re a beloved neon sign.

Nearly two years after the Hollywood Arby’s closed, its cowboy hat shone again this weekend at the Stagecoach Music Festival in Indio.

The restored sign showed up more than 130 miles away from its original home as part of the roast beef chain’s pop-up at the festival at the Empire Polo Club, where it became one of the event’s go-to photo spots.

“As you can see, everyone’s loving it. Everyone’s getting a photo op standing in front of it,” Arby’s franchisee Roger Amaya said.

Over the three days, people moseyed by the pop-up near Diplo’s Honky Tonk, sometimes lining up to wait their turn to take a photo in front of the sign. Some climbed on the surrounding hay bales for a better pose, asking others in line to snap their photo in front of the cowboy hat emblazoned with the words “Arby’s roast beef sandwich is delicious.”

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A number of people we talked to taking photos weren’t from L.A. and didn’t know the lore of the Hollywood Arby’s sign — they just liked the visual.

The sign’s original location was the Arby’s at 5920 Sunset Blvd. in Hollywood, which had been open for more than 55 years when it shuttered in June 2024.

The family that owned the location said at the time that rising food costs, the post-pandemic changes in the neighborhood and a law that raised minimum wage contributed to the closure.

Amaya said that Amir Siddiqi, head of a group of Arby’s franchises, was able to get the sign from the Hollywood location and have it restored.

“We were able to bring it back to life here and bring it to all the fans of Arby’s out there,” Amaya said.

Now that Stagecoach is over, where will the sign go next?

“That’s the big question, so you gotta stay tuned,” Amaya said.

As part of promoting the Chinese Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative to the Western approach, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed a four-point initiative for peace and stability in the Middle East in mid-April 2026, following escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Israeli war against Iran. This initiative aims to offer Chinese wisdom for conflict resolution based on sovereignty and development, in contrast to what China considers destabilizing Western alliances. President Xi Jinping discussed and presented this initiative in mid-April 2026 during his meeting with Khalid bin Mohammed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, outlining a comprehensive four-point initiative aimed at preserving and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East. This Chinese initiative comes within the context of Beijing’s efforts to strengthen its role as a diplomatic mediator following the escalation of tensions in the region. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s four peace initiatives for 2026 are the commitment to the principle of peaceful coexistence, supporting Gulf and Middle Eastern countries in improving their relations, and building a comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security architecture in the region based on the principle that the countries of the region are neighbors and cannot be geographically relocated. (Commitment to the principle of national sovereignty), through China’s support for and respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states and its rejection of interference in their internal affairs, while emphasizing the protection of the security of states, their people, infrastructure, and institutions. (China’s full commitment to the principle of the rule of international law), by adhering to the basic norms of international relations and supporting the international system centered on the United Nations, to prevent a return to the law of the jungle. (Reconciling development and security by affirming that security is a prerequisite for development and working to create a favorable environment for sustainable economic development to ensure long-term stability.)

These Chinese moves come as part of China’s efforts to present its Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative to the Western approach to conflict resolution. They are considered a direct response from China to Western and American policies. These Chinese peace proposals emerged in the context of Beijing’s criticism of the American blockade on Iranian ports, which it described as dangerous and irresponsible. By presenting a Chinese security model, China seeks to position itself as a partner committed to peace and dialogue, rather than the American military alliances that Beijing considers a threat to global security. Furthermore, this initiative aims to reinforce the Beijing Declaration, as China seeks to solidify its role as a mediator (following Saudi-Iranian and Palestinian faction mediation efforts) through a formal initiative.

Thus, the Chinese initiative emerged as a direct response to the escalating tensions in the Gulf region and Iran and as a countermeasure to the American blockade. The Chinese Foreign Ministry described the American blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz as dangerous and irresponsible, threatening the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Especially after the failure of US negotiations with Iran and US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 12, 2026, following the collapse of peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, China stepped in as an international mediator. Consequently, China is attempting to promote its own model by presenting itself as a peace partner focused on economic dialogue, in contrast to Western military alliances, which Beijing considers a threat to global security.

In this context, China is trying to leverage its past diplomatic successes to solidify its role in promoting the Beijing Declaration and to play a mediating role in resolving conflicts, such as the Saudi-Iranian mediation. Based on the 2023 Beijing Agreement to normalize relations, China seeks to strengthen its role in the Gulf region. Furthermore, China is working to solidify the Beijing Declaration of July 2024, which aimed to end the Palestinian division, achieve reconciliation between Palestinian factions, and form a national unity government, as a model for its mediation in resolving complex conflicts. With the strengthening of the Beijing Declaration, the new proposal aims to transform the Beijing Declaration from a factional agreement into an official, internationally supported initiative to solidify China’s role as a key mediator in Palestine as well.

These Chinese moves are part of a broader Chinese strategy to promote the Global Security Initiative (GSI) as an alternative to the Western approach, as outlined by Chinese President Xi Jinping for the period 2022-2026. China emphasizes its rejection of the Cold War mentality, criticizing Washington’s military alliances, such as the trilateral AUKUS security pact between the US, Australia, and the UK, and alliances in the Middle East. China also emphasizes the concept of indivisible security, promoting the idea that a nation’s security cannot be achieved at the expense of other nations’ security. China seeks influence through mediation, aiming to position itself as an alternative superpower capable of addressing the root causes of conflicts through development, rather than through the threat of force.

Africa has shown itself in the past week again as a continent of dramatic contrasts, in which moral leadership, political turmoil, and financial aspiration come into collision in a manner that would not only chart its own future but also that of the world. The continent is going through a time that is both precarious and radical, as the potent moral rhetoric of a papal visit gives way to an ever-worsening political persecution and systemic economic disparities.

A Moral Voice in a Fractured Continent

The visit of Pope Leo in some parts of Africa, such as Angola and Cameroon, has been one of the most intriguing this week. His message attracted crowds of more than 10,0000 people, and it was not only religious but also very political, declaring Africa a beautiful but wounded continent and demanding unity, justice, and an end to violence.

It is not only the size of the meetings but also the content of the message that is important. The Pope was outspoken in an attack on corruption, inequality, and exploitative governance systems—the problems that are at the core of most of the struggles in Africa today. His words about people being more important than corporate interests are well-received in a continent where natural resource wealth has not always translated into widespread prosperity.

This visit was, in a sense, a symbol of a greater fact: Africa is not merely economically or politically challenged; it is morally and structurally challenged. The unity cry in Angola, the nation that is yet to overcome the adverse effects of decades of civil war, is a symptom of the bigger continental necessity to mend the wounds of the past and deal with the inequalities of the present.

Political Tensions and Disappearance of Space of Dissent

As the moral pleas of unity reverberated in stadiums, political realities on the ground painted an even more disturbing scenario. The South African arrest of activist Kemi Seba is part of an increasing trend in some parts of Africa, where there is an increased crackdown on dissenting voices.

Seba, the anti-colonial and anti-Western rhetoricist and critic of Western influence, now risks extradition to Benin on charges of inciting rebellion. His detention highlights a broader conflict: the fight between state power and political activism in an area where the democratic institutions are not yet balanced.

This is not a one-time event. Governments all over the continent are striking a fine balance between ensuring stability and political expression. In other instances, this equilibrium is leaning towards control over being open, and this leaves one worrying about the future of democratic governance.

The consequences are not confined nationally. The political situation in Africa is a topic of keen interest to the rest of the world, not just due to its size and population but because it offers one of the final avenues of democratic growth in the 21st century. Political space is reduced here, causing ripples way beyond the continent.

Structural Gaps in Economic Promise

Africa is still a puzzle economically. On paper, the figures are encouraging. Recently, South Africa obtained the promise of billions of investments, which indicates a great interest of other countries in the areas of green energy, infrastructure, and digital development. But the facts speak otherwise. Of these promised investments, only around 42 percent have been translated into real economic activity—much less than world averages. This delivery gap is indicative of an ongoing problem: it is one thing to attract investment and another to implement it.

Simultaneously, the recent climate financing agreement of South Africa with Germany that provides hundreds of millions of euros of loans and green energy assistance reminds us about the increased role of the continent in the global climate plan. Africa is also being increasingly viewed not only as a beneficiary of aid but also as a prime actor in the shift to sustainable energy.

However, structural problems are quite rooted. The effectiveness of economic initiatives is still hampered by policy inconsistency, poor infrastructure, and governance issues. Even the most ambitious plans of investment have a chance of failing without these underlying problems being addressed.

The Overlooked Crisis: Environment and Illicit Economies

The other trend of importance this week has been the further increase in wildlife trafficking in Nigeria, even though the legislation has been taking measures to reduce it. A lack of complete legislation on wildlife protection has allowed the illegal trade to continue, with several seizures of endangered species over the past few months.

The problem is indicative of a larger problem: that of a nexus between environmental degradation and ineffective enforcement. Africa has one of the most biodiverse regions in the world, but it is rapidly being threatened by illegal trade, climate change, and the exploitation of resources.

The inability to adequately deal with such problems not only damages the ecosystems but also weakens the governance and the stability of the economy. In places where there is poor regulation, illegal economies flourish and, as a result, establish parallel economies that undermine state power and promote corruption.

Africa: Moment between Opportunity and Uncertainty

Collectively, what happened this last week shows a continent at a crossroads. On the one hand, there is an increasing international appreciation of the significance of Africa, be it in climate policy, economic investment, or geopolitical strategy. Conversely, internal threats persist to restrict its ability to exploit these opportunities to their full potential.

The message of unity and justice that the Pope is calling for is the spirit of this moment. Africa is not poor in resources, talent, and potential. The greater challenge it confronts is alignment itself, leadership and citizens, economic growth and social equity, and global engagement and local realities.

Conclusion: A Turning Point, Not a Passing Moment

The events of this week do not represent one-off headlines, but they are evidence of larger trends that are defining the future of Africa. The continent is not just responding to the global events—it is steadily becoming one of the main arenas where the global issues are acted out.

The doubt now arises whether Africa will be able to utilize this moment of attention to become a changed continent. Will investment be translated into development? Will politics become more open? Do ethical demands of cohesion result in practical change?

The responses are unclear. Nevertheless, there is one thing that is clear: Africa is never at the periphery of world affairs any longer. It is here in the center, and what occurs here during times of this kind will make the continent and indeed the world.

The smartest thing Trump can do for the United States is to adopt a “cake-sharing” strategy to cope with the arrival of a multipolar era. He wants to ensure that America still gets the largest slice of the cake, with its power base rooted in traditional energy—oil and natural gas.

This aligns well with “Cold War thinking.” From the perspective of oil reserves, the United States plus its friendly Gulf states accounts for about 55%–60% of the global total. If Venezuela—now under U.S. control—is added, the share rises to 72%–77%.

Spreading out the energy map, according to estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Greenland holds approximately 39 billion barrels of oil equivalent (combining East and West Greenland). Cuba has 4–5 billion barrels.

Nigeria, a major oil-producing country in Africa, has 37 billion barrels of oil reserves. The Trump administration has threatened military action against it under the pretext of “persecuting Christians.”

Iran’s oil reserves stand at 2,086 billion barrels, accounting for 13.3% of the global total.

The regions Trump has singled out—Iran, Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, and Nigeria—clearly show that he is deciding how to “share the cake” with China and Russia based on the traditional energy map.

Although reserves and actual output are two different things, for Trump this is irrelevant. What he puts on the negotiating table is merely a piece of paper for “bidding”—he doesn’t need to worry about minor details.

On the other side of the negotiating table, China’s chips are new energy and critical minerals. In the area of critical minerals, Iran, Venezuela, Greenland, Cuba, and Nigeria all possess rich potential, and all have varying degrees of investment and cooperation ties with China.

One reason Trump scorns “new energy” may be that, within his limited term, competing with China in the new energy field is simply impossible. In the traditional energy domain, however, the United States holds a significant advantage.

Successfully pocketing Venezuela has encouraged Trump to take risks in Iran. Originally, Trump wanted to approach Beijing for a major deal from the position of a traditional energy hegemon, but Iran’s fierce resistance has dampened his ambitions. The United States has been outmaneuvered by Iran, and Trump has postponed his visit to China.

Iranian President Pezeshkian publicly stated: “China is now also seen by the United States as its main enemy; we are just next in line. They want to take us down first, then deal with China.” Behind this statement lies the landscape of U.S.-China competition over energy and critical minerals.

It cannot be said that Trump is unrealistic—this “cake-sharing” strategy has its own rationality. Nor can it be said that Trump has overestimated America’s military strength, because he knows very well that the United States cannot even handle the Houthis, let alone Iran. One can only say that the success of the “decapitation operation” in Venezuela has inflated his sense of luck, and Israel has exploited this psychology to successfully lure Trump into risking involvement in Iran.

The United States and Israel jointly eliminated the appeasement faction in Tehran and greatly underestimated Iran’s counterattack capability. They wanted to control oil but ended up being controlled by Iran on oil export routes. This is a complete strategic failure, and its medium- to long-term damage to the United States far exceeds the energy sector.

We don’t even need to discuss the rise and fall of petrodollars versus petroyuan—just look at the new energy sector. This round of energy crisis has greatly heightened the global urgency for new energy development, and the countries and regions most urgently in need are precisely America’s allies worldwide, including the Gulf states.

America’s allies are mostly developed countries. They have long recognized that China is a superpower in new energy. Before the Iran war, the broader Western camp was developing new energy while trying to reduce dependence on Iran. Now, however, the sense of urgency has pushed these countries to rely even more deeply on China.

These countries and regions include France, Germany, Portugal, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, as well as India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia. They are either industrially advanced or rapidly industrializing countries that heavily depend on stable energy supplies.

In the core area of the Iran war—the Gulf states—are also actively accelerating the development of new energy industries, with the solar industry as the key focus. China is the only source capable of providing cheap, high-quality equipment and products. After the war ends, Iran may also exchange oil for the components needed for new energy development with China, achieving economic diversification like the Gulf states and reducing reliance on oil exports.

China’s solar equipment originally suffered from overcapacity; now it stands to gain relief.

What revolves around the core issues of new energy is nothing more than industrial supply chains and critical minerals. In this regard, mainland China’s industrial strength needs no emphasis. In critical minerals, the Democratic Republic of the Congo—China’s deep cooperation partner—will see half of its cobalt mines belong to Chinese enterprises. Given that Congo holds the world’s largest cobalt reserves, China will possess an indisputable “cobalt dominance.” Cobalt is a key mineral for lithium-ion batteries.

In addition, graphite and tantalum are also dominated by China. Tantalum is a critical metal for capacitors, which are essential for stabilizing wind and solar power generation. Graphite is the anode material for lithium-ion batteries and an indispensable mineral for renewable energy storage systems and solar panel production.

Currently, renewable energy plus nuclear power accounts for 40% of global electricity generation, while fossil fuels still account for 60%. However, when looking at the global share of “capacity” (installed capacity) for renewable energy plus nuclear, it has already reached about 55%. Among this, renewable energy accounts for 49.4% and nuclear for about 5%.

“Capacity” refers to installed capacity—in plain terms, the theoretical maximum power generation. The actual global generation share of renewable energy is about 32%. The gap between theoretical and actual values exists because renewable energy generation is less stable than fossil fuels. Adding nuclear’s actual generation share (about 8%), the actual generation share of so-called low-carbon energy reaches 40% globally.

There is no doubt that the oil crisis will inevitably trigger a “green energy surge.” Looking ahead five years, the actual generation share of green energy will exceed 50%. Assuming nuclear can grow to 10% of actual generation and renewables grow by 8%, China’s additional revenue from the global renewable energy business in the next five years could reach the level of hundreds of billions of dollars.

From this perspective, China—which strongly supported green energy development from the very beginning of the climate agenda—did so not so much for carbon reduction as for industrial preparation in the name of energy security. Expanding the global new energy business is merely an added value.

Of course, the key technologies for manufacturing new energy equipment may be even more important than critical minerals. Last November, China imposed export controls on certain lithium batteries, key cathode and anode materials, and their manufacturing equipment and technologies. Given that China controls about 96% of global anode material production capacity and 85% of cathode material capacity, the impact of these export controls is enormous.

On April 15, according to Reuters, China has held preliminary consultations with solar panel production equipment suppliers and is considering restricting exports of the most advanced technologies and equipment to the United States. If true, Beijing is raising the stakes in new energy, waiting for Trump to come to the negotiating table in May.

Admittedly, Trump has no intention of developing new energy. However, considering that the Democrats may return to the White House in three years, Beijing is now blocking America’s path to new energy development, essentially laying the groundwork for U.S.-China competition three years from now.

If Trump’s energy strategy map on the table also included a new energy layer, he should realize that the setback in the Iran war has allowed the new energy domain to encroach upon the traditional energy domain, enabling China to expand its energy power without firing a single shot. As for critical minerals, the United States has made no outstanding progress—at least nothing sufficient for Trump to boast about.

Now, the “cake” being pushed in front of Xi Jinping is getting bigger and bigger. On the surface, Beijing has gained it effortlessly, but today’s harvest is mainly due to strategic 布局 made one step ahead. These layouts are often “low-profit” but highly effective investments, and new energy is merely one of them.

In an uncertain world, those who provide “certainty” win. Therefore, the winner of the Iran war is China—even if Beijing is extremely reluctant to admit it.

SHAKIRA has been slammed by fans for her ice cold reaction after one of her cameramen fell over in front of her during a live performance.

A video of the awkward moment is currently circulating on X, with the Colombian pop star, 49, seen stepping around the fallen production member on the ground.

In the clip, the cameraman is filming Shakira as she makes her way through a walkway between the crowd, but trips over equipment during the moment.

Shakira side steps around the cameraman, who is on the floor, to continue her journey to the stage and move on with her performance.

Sharing the clip to X, one user wrote: “The camera operator filming Shakira falls, and she doesn’t make the slightest attempt to help him.”

Another said: “Lack of empathy, period. Bet if it were her who trips, they’d pause the show for a few minutes, right? …

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“Anyway, it’s the world we live in today, nothing to be done.”

While some branded the move cold, others defended Shakira, noting that the show follows strict timings, and others were there to help him.

One fan said: “The show timings are timed, if she stopped to help the cameraman she probably would have ruined part of the choreography.”

Another agreed: “There are more people there who can help him. She runs off because if she wasn’t on stage on time, it delays the show.

“It’s a live show.”

The circulating moment comes just a few months after Shakira suffered a nasty fall herself on stage.

During a performance in San Salvador in February, Shakira was singing her hit song Si Te Vas when her right ankle suddenly twisted.

She then completely toppled to her side, falling onto her elbow as she brought her microphone stand down with her.

During the moment, Shakira stopped singing as gasps could be heard amongst the audience.

But ever the professional, she quickly got herself back up and managed to continue the song – with the star’s band continuing as her guitarist cheered her on.

The star is currently on her massive Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran World Tour, which translates to “Women No Longer Cry”.

Her next performance will take place on May 2, when Shakira will perform in Rio De Janeiro, before she heads to the USA.