F16

This is increasingly becoming a wider problem across Ukraine’s air defense network. Patriot interceptors have been heavily consumed, with relatively few replacement missiles now trickling in, leaving Ukraine with limited ability to defend against ballistic missiles in particular. The strain is now spilling into the lower tiers, including the air-to-air missiles carried by F-16s. Ukraine’s continued consumption of interceptors is a major driver, but it is competing with the enormous demand generated by ongoing wars in the Middle East and a broader surge in demand for advanced air defense weapons around the world. With production struggling to keep pace, scarce interceptors are effectively being rationed across an increasingly crowded global battlefield.

“At least we need to try to increase the production, or at least to allow Ukraine to localize the production in Ukraine or other European countries,” he said.

That proposal reflects the fundamental vulnerability of a relatively small fleet operating in a high-intensity air war. Every missile fired at a Russian cruise missile or drone is one less available for the next engagement. A finite inventory therefore has to cover both routine air-defense missions and the possibility of much larger Russian attacks. At the same time, both the AIM-9 and especially the AIM-120 are used for Ukrainian ground-based air defenses too. The AMRAAM, in particular, is the effector for the NASAMS, which protects Kyiv, and other key objectives against cruise missiles and drones.

The problem becomes even more acute because Ukraine cannot know precisely when the next major Russian strike will arrive.

That is why, according to Wilder’s account, the arrival of missile shipments is being followed with extraordinary urgency.

At the same time, Phantom welcomed the major technological leap that the F-16 represents over the Soviet-designed MiG-29s and Su-27s that formed the backbone of Ukraine’s fighter force.

“The F-16s in comparison with the legacy aircraft like MiG-29 or Su-27? This is kind of like a new technology,” Phantom said.

But sophisticated aircraft are only as useful as the weapons available to them.

Ukrainian F-16s have reportedly destroyed huge numbers of Russian drones and cruise missiles, and in July a Ukrainian F-16 was publicly identified by the U.S. Joint Chiefs chairman as having shot down a Russian fighter.

Phantom also asked Ukraine’s Western partners to think beyond individual weapons transfers and toward production capacity.

He also urged the United States and European countries to do more to prevent Russia from acquiring components used in its own missile production through third countries.

“We need to make as much as we can to stop providing the parts, most technological parts to Russians, bypassing the direct sales, of course, through the third party,” he said.

Phantom argued that Russia continues to obtain sophisticated components through intermediaries and even ostensibly civilian products.

“It would not be a surprise that Russians [are] using the washing machine that they’re buying from the third party to use those smart details for building missiles,” he said.

His recommendation is tighter sanctions and enforcement designed to cut off Russia’s access to those components.

“Important is to sanction to stop Russia from being able to have access to those parts,” he said.

That, combined with missile shortages, could become an even bigger problem when Russia conducts another major aerial campaign against Ukraine, particularly as Moscow traditionally intensifies attacks against the country’s energy infrastructure during the winter months.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The engagement referenced by Caine may have been the July 8 shootdown of a Russian Su-35S multirole fighter. Ukrainian military officials announced the destruction of the aircraft at the time, while pro-Kremlin Russian military bloggers also acknowledged the loss, claiming the pilot survived and returned safely to base.

A Telegram channel affiliated with the Ukrainian Air Force, Sunflower, claimed the Russian was “the very same experienced enemy pilot who had been causing us a lot of trouble in this area.”

Earlier speculation suggested the Su-35S may instead have been destroyed by a Patriot surface-to-air missile after being lured into range by one or more Ukrainian F-16s. No evidence was presented to substantiate that theory.

Regardless of the precise circumstances, destroying a Su-35S would represent a notable achievement given the aircraft’s superior long-range air combat capabilities.

The Su-35S is among Russia’s most capable fighters and has long been regarded by Ukrainian pilots as one of their most dangerous opponents.

At the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the late Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum pilot Andrii Pilshchykov, better known by his callsign “Juice,” described the Su-35S as the greatest airborne threat because of its powerful radar and R-77-1 active radar-guided air-to-air missiles. The upgraded R-77-1 reportedly has a range of around 68 miles, improved resistance to electronic countermeasures, and a true fire-and-forget capability—something Ukraine’s Soviet-era fighters lacked.

The Su-35S later gained an even more formidable weapon: the R-37M very-long-range air-to-air missile. Introduced into combat during the summer of 2022, the missile reportedly has a range of up to 124 miles, allowing Russian fighters to threaten Ukrainian aircraft while remaining deep inside Russian-controlled airspace. That range likely refers to only larger, less agile aircraft targets and is very much a “sales brochure figure,” with all the caveats that entails. Nevertheless, Pilshchykov bluntly described the weapon as “fucking dangerous.”

The longest-range modern air-to-air missile available to Ukrainian F-16s is the AIM-120C-8 version of the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM). An active-radar-guided air-to-air missile is something that Ukraine long campaigned for. Pilshchykov told TWZ back in 2022: “The lack of fire-and-forget missiles is the greatest problem for us.”

As we have discussed in the past, while official performance figures are classified, the AIM-120C-8 is generally assumed to be able to hit targets at a distance of between 75 and 100 miles. Of course, in practical applications, a whole range of factors impacts any missile’s reach, above all, the energy and altitude state of the launching aircraft and the target.

Combined with the Su-35S’s sophisticated electronic warfare systems and Russia’s numerical advantage, these technical capabilities have allowed Russian fighters to operate with relative confidence. In 2022, Pilshchykov recalled occasions when as many as two dozen Su-35s patrolled along the Russian side of the border, waiting for opportunities to engage Ukrainian aircraft.

Based on available reports, Russia was initially satisfied with the results of its R-37M tactics, which relied heavily on surprise. Fighters launched air-to-air missiles at moments the target did not expect, after first employing diversionary and deception measures to mask the attack. However, increased Ukrainian aircraft losses forced Kyiv to develop new tactics to counter the threat.

According to Russian accounts, Ukraine’s tactical changes were enabled by NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets, which provided Ukrainian forces with near-real-time information on Russian fighter activity and detected long-range missile launches. Armed with this warning, Ukrainian pilots reportedly had sufficient time to execute defensive maneuvers, combining aggressive evasive flying with electronic jamming to break the missile’s lock and reduce the likelihood of a successful kill.

Whether or not these tactics helped the F-16 score a famous air-to-air kill is unclear, but they reflect the cat-and-mouse nature of the air war in Ukraine.

Certainly, the Su-35S is far from immune to Ukrainian air defenses.

According to the Oryx open-source tracking group, nine Su-35s have been destroyed in the war. The figure could be higher since Oryx only tabulates losses for which it has visual confirmation.

There have also been close calls.

Russian accounts describe a Su-35S flown by Colonel M. Stefanov landing at an airfield, where, during a post-flight inspection, maintainers counted 28 holes in the fuselage.

If Caine’s statement reflects U.S. intelligence assessments — as seems likely — it suggests Ukraine is becoming increasingly proficient at integrating its Western-supplied F-16s with its broader, layered air defense network. At the same time, Russia has never enjoyed air supremacy over Ukraine, its aircraft even being at risk in some of the areas on its side of the front lines and even in Russia itself.

Even so, this should not be viewed as a turning point in the air war. Russia still fields significantly larger numbers of combat aircraft, retains extensive long-range surface-to-air missile coverage, and continues to pose a serious threat to Ukrainian aviation.

One successful engagement, even against one of Russia’s premier fighters, does not fundamentally alter the balance of air power. It does, however, demonstrate that Ukraine’s expanding fleet of Western fighters, integrated air defenses, and increasingly experienced air defenders of all kinds continue to raise the risks faced by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com