The TWZ Newsletter
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
The U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, but it will happen. This is the synopsis provided by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in an interview with CNBC. The development comes as Iran continues to pummel international shipping in and around the critical channel, which the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vows to keep closed.
“It’ll happen relatively soon, but it can’t happen now,” Wright said, of the planned naval escort mission. “We’re simply not ready. All of our military assets right now are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and the manufacturing industry that supplies their offensive capabilities.” Wright added that the Navy should be able to escort tankers through the strait by the end of this month.
Khamenei, it appears, is also resolute in his plan to keep the strait closed to all maritime traffic, reportedly having turned down approaches from several countries that were seeking an end to the attacks.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 3 that “the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.”
Putting a date of the end of this month on the escort mission is certain to trouble markets that are already feeling the pressure of the conflict. At the very least, this is an indicator that the war or its hostile aftermath will continue for weeks to come.
Equally pessimistically, there have been reports from analysts suggesting that fully reopening the strait may require some kind of ground operation to seize the Iranian coastline adjacent to it.
“Strategic priorities, like opening the Strait of Hormuz and securing what remains of Iran’s nuclear stockpile, will likely require some ground troops if no diplomatic options are pursued,” Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told The Wall Street Journal. “What we are looking at is potentially a very messy situation.”
Even without boots on the ground, which now seems like a remote prospect, running a tanker-escort mission, which would involve convoys protected by warships and accompanied by mine-clearing assets, is fraught with difficulty. Military unwillingness to take on missions of this kind is an issue we have explored in the past at TWZ.
The warships involved in any such endeavor would also be at extreme risk, especially from Iranian ground-mobile anti-ship missiles, which are relatively small and can be easily disguised in utility trucks. Eliminating that threat is one potential driver for a ground operation along the coast of the strait.
The U.S. military has made extensive efforts in recent days to remove the Iranian minelaying capability, but, according to the U.K. Defense Secretary, there are now increasing signs that Iran may have started mining the strait.
While tanker traffic through the strait remains at a standstill, Iran continues its campaign against commercial tankers elsewhere in the region, with another two vessels set ablaze earlier today in Iraqi waters. Iraq reportedly halted all operations at its oil ports after the attack.
The Ambrey maritime security firm told us that a Malta-flagged crude oil tanker and another merchant vessel were targeted in an attack in Al Basrah Anchorage, Iraq. One fatality was reported. At least 38 individuals were rescued from both vessels according to the Iraq Port Authority, with further search and rescue operations ongoing as of this morning.
Video footage of the incident shows a vessel engulfed in fire with a large plume of smoke rising from the area of impact. Fire can also be seen in the water as a result of the oil spill.
Unverified reports state that the two tankers were struck by uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs).
Iraq’s State Organization for Marketing of Oil identified the two vessels as crude oil tanker Safesea Vishnu and the combined chemical and oil tanker Zefyros. While the Zefyros is Malta-flagged, the Safesea Vishnu is owned by a U.S. company but was sailing under the Marshall Islands flag. A dramatic video has appeared that is said to show the moment of the explosion that targeted the Safesea Vishnu.
In a statement, the IRGC said that it considered the Safesea Vishnu as an asset of the U.S. military and claims that it was struck after ignoring repeated warnings and alerts from the IRGC Navy.
Ambrey also reports that a container vessel was struck by an unknown projectile 38 nautical miles north-northeast of Jebel Ali, United Arab Emirates. The strike was reported to have caused a small fire on board the vessel, and the crew was reported to be safe.
Another vessel, the Japanese-flagged container ship One Majesty, was reportedly also damaged while anchored in the Persian Gulf. The damage was only discovered later, around 60 miles from the Strait of Hormuz. There were no reports of casualties.
The vessel seen burning in the video below, from the perspective of crew members who evacuated on a liferaft, is the Thai-flagged cargo vessel, Mayuree Naree Bangkok, which was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
The continued attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping by Iran, and concerns over the intensifying conflict in the Middle East, have seen oil prices spike.
The international benchmark Brent crude is back above $100 per barrel.
In an effort to reduce concerns over global oil supplies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history.
Meanwhile, the government of Denmark is calling upon its citizens to reduce their consumption of fossil fuels.
In a post on his Truth Social site, President Trump said he remained committed to ensuring Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons, despite the impact on the global oil trade.
“The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. BUT, of far greater interest and importance to me, as President, is stoping [sic] an evil Empire, Iran, from having Nuclear Weapons, and destroying the Middle East and, indeed, the World.”
The day-to-day running of the conflict also comes with a high cost to the U.S. government. According to Reuters, officials from the Donald administration estimated during a congressional briefing this week that the first six days of the war on Iran had cost the United States at least $11.3 billion.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has struck a nuclear site in Iran, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced today. The targeting of the Taleghan compound was part of a larger wave of strikes conducted over the past few days, the IDF said. Taleghan is part of the Parchin military complex, located around 20 miles southeast of Tehran.
The development comes after we reported on evidence of some kind of airstrike against the Taleghan compound, including the possibility that the hardened facility was hit by 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs. You can read that analysis, based on satellite imagery, here.
The Israeli military said that IDF intelligence had determined that Iran had been using the Taleghan compound to develop weapons and conduct experiments as part of Amad, an Iranian scientific project aimed at developing nuclear weapons.
According to a statement from the Israeli military:
“During Operation Rising Lion, the IDF has operated systematically against knowledge centers and infrastructure related to the Iranian nuclear weapon program in order to eliminate the emerging existential threat to the State of Israel. Despite the significant damage inflicted on the program, the Iranian regime has continued efforts to advance and develop the capabilities required for the development of a nuclear weapon.”
The IDF added that it had recently identified that Iran has taken steps to rehabilitate the compound after it was struck in October 2024.
Israel announced last week that it had struck Minzadehei, another nuclear site in Iran where it said scientists were covertly developing a key component for nuclear weapons.
“The strike is a part of the series of operations carried out throughout Operation Rising Lion aimed at further damaging the Iranian terrorist regime’s nuclear aspirations.”
Other recent targets of the IDF include Abu Dharr Mohammadi, described as the operations commander responsible for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) missile unit within Hezbollah.
“Earlier this week (Tuesday), the IDF struck and eliminated the terrorist Abu Dharr Mohammadi … Mohammadi was a central figure in the military coordination between Hezbollah and the Iranian terror regime, while coordinating and connecting between Hezbollah and Iranian senior officials,” the IDF said.
“Mohammadi was a key figure in Hezbollah’s military force build-up as it related to missiles, focusing on rehabilitating the program following Operation Northern Arrows,” the IDF added.
For its part, Hezbollah continues to hit back against Israel.
According to the Israeli military, Hezbollah militants launched around 200 rockets and approximately 20 drones yesterday evening from Lebanon toward Israel. After reportedly detecting signs of an unusual buildup, the IDF said it carried out a preemptive strike to disrupt the firing and thwart terrorists.
The U.S. military has also continued airstrikes on Iran, with a recent video released by Central Command (CENTCOM) showing the destruction of a C-130 Hercules transport and a P-3F Orion maritime patrol aircraft (both of which were supplied to Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution) and an Ilyushin Il-76 Candid airlifter.
Of these aircraft, the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) P-3F was especially notable, since it was reportedly the last of the type that was still airworthy in Iranian service.
Following attacks on Mehrabad and Bandar Abbas Air Bases, the runways at both have now been blocked by parked buses and helicopters, according to satellite imagery. The reason for this is unclear, but it is possible that it has been driven by concerns about a potential aerial assault on either of these locations. Alternatively, the aircraft and vehicles may have been arranged as decoys. The same thing has been seen in the war in Ukraine, as well as in Venezuela, earlier this year.
U.S. airstrikes against Iranian missile systems have also continued. The CENTCOM video below is noteworthy since it shows (around the 0:07 mark) the destruction of a ballistic missile apparently in the process of being erected from its launch vehicle.
A U.S. strike overnight on three bases associated with the Iranian-backed Ansar Allah al-Awfiya militia reportedly killed dozens of militiamen. The bases near al-Qaim, al-Anbar, were used to fire projectiles at U.S. interests in Jordan. The following video purports to show the results of the attack on al-Qaim.
Footage has also emerged that apparently shows a U.S. military Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) kamikaze drone headed toward a militia target in Iraq. Based on the Iranian Shahed-136, these weapons were used in combat for the first time in the opening salvos of Operation Epic Fury and repeatedly since.
Overnight attacks on Iraq also struck Erbil, home to an Italian military detachment in the country. According to reports, this has led to the temporary evacuation of the Italian presence from the base.
Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to continue attacks on U.S. bases in the region, calling for American forces to leave them immediately, or face further strikes.
While we have regularly seen Iranian ballistic missiles target Israel with cluster warheads, we now also have a view of how the separate munitions disperse, as seen from the vantage point of the cockpit of an IAF fighter jet.
In the United Arab Emirates, authorities have reportedly arrested a British tourist after they allegedly filmed missiles hitting Dubai. The 60-year-old Londoner faces two years in prison after being charged with a cybercrime, The Daily Mail reports.
He is reportedly one of 20 people to have been charged over videos and social media posts relating to recent Iranian missile strikes on the UAE.
The on-off deal to get Ukrainian-made counter-drone technology into U.S. hands has apparently taken another turn.
Taking to X, Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky wrote that he had hoped to “sign a big drone production deal with the United States, but we needed the approval from the White House.”
The deal, covering “different kinds of drones and air defense,” has not been signed yet, Zelensky added.
“I hope that maybe [our] American friends will be closer to this decision now, especially after such challenges as we see in the Middle East,” the Ukrainian leader wrote.
A fire broke out aboard the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford.
“On March 12, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) experienced a fire that originated in the ship’s main laundry spaces,” Naval Forces Central Command said in a statement on X. “The cause of the fire was not combat-related and is contained. There is no damage to the ship’s propulsion plant, and the aircraft carrier remains fully operational. Two Sailors are currently receiving medical treatment for non-life-threatening injuries and are in stable condition. Additional information will be provided when available.”
Earlier today, a U.S. official told USNI News that the initial fire had been extinguished, but the crew was still working to control the damage.
The United Arab Emirates is now using UH-60 Black Hawk series helicopters for counter-drone work, as seen in this video, which captures an engagement over Dubai.
According to a report from Reuters, citing U.S. intelligence officials, most of the Iranian leadership remains intact, and the regime is not currently at risk of collapse, despite the U.S.-Israeli campaign against it.
Certainly, as far as public statements are concerned, the remaining elements of the Iranian leadership remain steadfast in their refusal to give up the fight.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
