Elections

Uganda holds elections on Thursday, with President Yoweri Museveni hoping to extend his four decades in power.

Supporters of his main opponent, musician Bobi Wine, allege harassment and intimidation.

So, what’s at stake for one of the world’s youngest populations?

Presenter:

Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Robert Kabushenga – host of The Bad Natives podcast

Alex Vines – Africa programme director at the European Council on Foreign Relations

Joseph Ochieno – commentator on African affairs

WASHINGTON — The Democratic National Committee will spend millions of dollars to cement control of voter registration efforts that have traditionally been entrusted to nonprofit advocacy groups and individual political campaigns, a shift that party leaders hope will increase their chances in this year’s midterm elections.

The initiative, being announced on Tuesday, will begin in Arizona and Nevada with at least $2 million for training organizers. It’s the first step in what could become the DNC’s largest-ever push to sign up new voters, with a particular focus on young people, voters of color and people without college educations. All of those demographics drifted away from Democrats in the last presidential race, which returned Republican Donald Trump to the White House.

“It’s a crisis. And for our party to actually win elections, we have to actually create more Democrats,” DNC Chair Ken Martin said in an interview with the Associated Press.

Martin added that “we need all hands on deck, not just the outside groups,” as the party tries to win back control of Congress and break Republicans’ unified control in Washington.

Democrats have spent decades relying on advocacy organizations and civic groups to register voters, but those efforts are generally required by law to be nonpartisan. Party leaders want a more explicitly partisan approach like the one used by Republicans, who have relied less on outside groups to register and mobilize their voter base.

Martin said allied nonprofits are “really important partners” that have “done amazing work to actually get people engaging in their democracy.”

“But in this moment right now, given the significant disadvantage that we have and the advantage the Republicans have, we actually have to do more,” he said.

The DNC initiative aims to reach non-college-educated young voters by recruiting organizers from a wide array of backgrounds, like gig economy workers and young parents, who have often been overlooked in the party’s grassroots efforts. Democrats hope that organizers’ own perspectives and experiences will help party strategists learn how to connect with Americans in blue-collar roles who are disaffected with politics, whom the party fears it has lost touch with in recent elections.

“I think it’s incredible that Democrats are actually investing in reaching Democratic voters who have been left behind,” said Santiago Mayer, founder of Voters for Tomorrow, a progressive political youth group that is collaborating with the DNC. “We got killed on persuasion in 2024, and I think this is a really important step, fixing it and ensuring that we do not have a repeat of that in 2026.”

The program will kick off with dozens of videos from lawmakers, activists and party leaders across the country. Democrats hope to boost enthusiasm for the program through interstate party competitions throughout the year.

If successful, the investments will provide a foundation that Democrats can rely upon beyond the fall midterm elections.

“This is a critical piece of the infrastructure that we’re building to actually not only win the moment in ’26 but to win the future,” Martin said. “For us to put ourselves in a position to win in ’28 and ’30 and ’32, we actually have to keep doing this work and do it consistently.”

Brown writes for the Associated Press.

Kampala, Uganda – When Bobi Wine, a singer-turned-politician whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, launched his campaign to become Uganda’s next president in October, he appeared in tailored suits, greeting crowds with a familiar smile.

The mood, at least at first, felt cautiously hopeful.

But by December, that image had disappeared.

As campaigning comes to an end on Tuesday, Bobi Wine, who is the main opposition candidate looking to unseat long-serving President Yoweri Museveni, now only appears in public wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet.

For many Ugandans, his change in attire – and the state violence that led to it – are symbols of a foregone political outcome: An incumbent victory likely to be rejected by his competitors.

Since he was cleared to run in the election in September, Bobi Wine’s campaign convoy has frequently been met with tear gas, roadblocks and arrests of supporters. Campaign events are regularly disrupted, with people abruptly dispersing and roads sealed off.

While the violence has not reached the deadly levels of the 2021 election, when more than 50 people were killed and hundreds of Bobi Wine supporters were detained following spontaneous protests in the capital, Kampala, the campaign environment has become increasingly militarised – defined by calculated repression, intimidation and a steadily shrinking space for Bobi Wine to sell his manifesto, analysts have observed.

Bobi Wine, 43, is contesting for a second time in Thursday’s election after he finished as the runner-up in the 2021 polls.

Museveni won that last disputed vote during which Bobi Wine alleged fraud and urged citizens to reject the result. The 81-year-old incumbent has ruled the country for nearly four decades after capturing power following a rebel war, and is seeking a seventh term in office.

Five other candidates are also in this year’s race, in which 21.6 million registered voters are expected to cast their votes.

A climate of fear

Even before campaigning officially began, Bobi Wine’s team expected violence.

Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba – who serves as Uganda’s army chief – had publicly threatened Bobi Wine in the months leading to the campaign season, including remarks about beheading him.

Kainerugaba also claimed responsibility for the abduction and torture of Bobi Wine’s bodyguard, Edward Ssebuufu, who remains in detention.

Opposition officials say that while the worst of Kainerugaba’s threats have not materialised, the state, fearing the big audience Bobi Wine was attracting, decided to unleash violence on him during the election campaign.

“In terms of violence, we saw that the first month [October] was a bit not so violent, but after that it became violent and chaotic,” David Lewis Rubonyoya, secretary-general of National Unity Platform (NUP), the party Bobi Wine leads, told Al Jazeera.

During a campaign stop in Gulu, northern Uganda, in December, Bobi Wine was attacked by security forces and plainclothes individuals armed with sticks. He and several of his aides were beaten, and campaign equipment was vandalised. One person later died following the incident. In a separate incident in Mbarara, western Uganda, in November, police arrested 43 Bobi Wine supporters after a confrontation over campaign routes. They remain in detention.

During the 2021 election period, the protests and deadly police crackdown were prompted by Bobi Wine’s arrest for allegedly flaunting COVID-19 guidelines. This year, although the violence has so far been muted, opposition figures and analysts insist the repression is no less severe – only more controlled.

Michael Mutyaba, a Ugandan political analyst and a doctoral researcher at SOAS University of London, says the difference lies in strategy.

“In 2021 and before, security agencies were in panic mode. There was state violence that was less calculated. The violence now looks more calculated and expanded,” he told Al Jazeera. He pointed to arrests of random people, like a Catholic priest charged with money laundering, as examples. The government also arrested Sarah Birete, a prominent human rights activist and critic, who will only be released after the election.

Voter and candidate ‘bribery’

Bobi Wine, too, has faced increased onslaught from the state, with candidates sponsored by his party to stand in parliamentary elections coming under particular strain. Many of the targeted candidates standing in the parliamentary polls, also being held on Thursday, have withdrawn their candidacies, publicly denounced Bobi Wine, and joined the governing party.

Most of these defections, managed by parliament’s deputy speaker, Thomas Tayebwa, have occurred daily but mainly outside the central region, which is considered Bobi Wine’s stronghold. Bobi Wine has claimed that these candidates were bribed, while the state maintains that they joined the governing party freely and without conditions.

Yusuf Serunkuma, a political analyst based at Kampala’s Makerere University, said he is not surprised by the “regime’s” tactics.

“This is part of transactional politics,” he told Al Jazeera. But he added that if the opposition had the capacity to buy candidates from the governing party, they too would be doing it daily.

Another method the state has used to eliminate candidates sponsored by Bobi Wine’s party has been through disqualification by the Electoral Commission, which has argued that some candidates failed to meet nomination requirements. Jude Byamukama, a Ugandan constitutional lawyer, says the cancellations have been “ridiculous”, as critics say they are tactics deployed to halt the opposition.

“They [Electoral Commission] were trying to create unopposed candidates in several constituencies without a lawful basis,” Byamukama told Al Jazeera. He added that after disqualification, the commission then made it difficult for candidates to appeal to the courts by failing to serve them the decisions on time.

Months before the election season, Museveni also launched a softer offensive, particularly targeting informal sector players in Bobi Wine’s strongholds in central Uganda. There, the president has distributed millions of dollars in cash to groups such as motorcycle riders, taxi drivers, salon operators and street vendors. Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a retired historian from Makerere University, describes this as “electoral corruption” meant to influence voters, while Serunkuma said “vote buying” is normal in Ugandan politics, but this time, it’s been more organised.

Fears the worst is yet to come

As election day approaches on Thursday, Bobi Wine has warned that the state plans to arrest him and abduct key organisers who would play a role in monitoring polling stations.

He has issued advice to supporters: Disable phone location services, avoid predictable routes, limit time spent in one place, and flee if followed by unfamiliar vehicles or motorcycles – like the Toyota Hiace commonly associated with state abductions.

“I am aware of a plot by the desperate regime to have me arrested before polling day,” he recently said on social media.

Another flashpoint looms over election day itself: Whether voters should remain near polling stations after voting to “protect the vote”, as Bobi Wine has urged.

Ugandan law allows voters to remain at least 20 metres (66ft) away from polling stations, but the Electoral Commission and security agencies have advised people to leave immediately after voting.

The Electoral Commission has framed the issue as one of discipline rather than legality, warning that crowds could provoke disorder.

Ugandans want peace

Despite the tense atmosphere among political players, Ugandans say they want peace – regardless of political affiliation.

Wanyama Isaac, a casual construction worker in Kampala and a Bobi Wine supporter, says elections should not descend into violence.

“Violence helps no one. It is the responsibility of both sides to remain calm,” he said.

Mashabe Alex, a boda boda rider who supports Museveni, agrees.

“Violence destroys businesses and lives, as we saw in 2021.”

He says the opposition should not threaten Museveni supporters like himself.

An uncertain endgame

Bobi Wine’s camp has not disclosed its post-election strategy. But Museveni has been warning his competitor’s supporters not to dare confront security agencies.

“I have heard Bobi Wine say that soldiers and police are few while rioters are many. I advise you not to believe him. Every soldier and police officer has a gun with 120 bullets,” Museveni warned in December.

The military already has soldiers in infantry mobility vehicles in Kampala, an opposition stronghold.

Rubongoya of the NUP argues that the Electoral Commission cannot declare an opposition candidate a winner in Uganda without pressure from the public.

“If Ugandans vote in large numbers and peacefully demand their victory, the Electoral Commission will be pushed to announce the right candidate,” he said.

“Our ideology is people power. If people are determined, intimidation and money will not stop them,” he added.

However, Rubongoya acknowledged that memories of the 2020–2021 election violence still haunt many Ugandans. He warned that any attempt to protest could be met with lethal force.

Serunkuma argues that the opposition signed up for an electoral process that was rigged from the start, and that they know they can never win, suggesting that their target may not be unseating Museveni himself.

Rather, he says parties like that of Bobi Wine want to “consolidate themselves under Museveni” by, for instance, retaining positions they hold in parliament.

Mutyaba predicts that after the election results are announced, Bobi Wine will likely be placed under house arrest – a tactic the state has used repeatedly since 2011. His party will issue statements dismissing the election results, and that will likely be the end.

“It is impossible to organise protests under the current conditions,” Mutyaba said. “The dynamics are not in their favour. The only hope is that, at some point during Museveni’s next term, an incident could trigger an uprising. But that will not happen next week.”

Elections take place weeks after foiled coup attempt that shook the country.

Voters in Benin are casting ballots to select members of parliament and local representatives, just weeks after a failed coup attempt by army mutineers.

President Patrice Talon’s governing coalition is projected to strengthen its already powerful position in Sunday’s elections, with the main opposition Democrats party barred from the local polls.

The streets of economic capital Cotonou were calm as polling stations opened at 7am local time (06:00 GMT) on Sunday, according to the AFP news agency. Polls are scheduled to close at 5pm (16:00 GMT).

“I’m coming to vote early so I don’t have to deal with the midday crowds after church,” restaurateur Adeline Sonon, 32, told AFP after casting her ballot.

The single-round legislative polls will elect 109 members of the National Assembly, where Talon’s three-party bloc hopes to strengthen its majority.

The Democrats, contesting only the parliamentary races, risk ceding ground to the ruling coalition, which currently holds 81 seats.

Some observers say the opposition may lose all 28 seats, given the current electoral law requiring parties to gather support from 20 percent of registered voters in each of the country’s 24 voting districts to stand for parliament.

The elections come weeks after a deadly coup attempt by soldiers on December 7, which was thwarted in a matter of hours by the military, with support from neighbouring Nigeria.

The campaign unfolded without large rallies, with most parties opting for grassroots strategies like door-to-door canvassing.

“All measures have been taken to guarantee a free, transparent and secure vote. No political ambition can justify violence or endanger national unity,” head of the electoral commission, Sacca Lafia, said on Saturday.

The legislative elections are set to define the political landscape ahead of April’s presidential poll, with the opposition struck off the ballot.

While Talon, 67, who is nearing the end of his second five-year term, is barred from running in April’s elections, his hand-picked successor, Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, is a strong favourite to win.

Talon has presided over strong economic development across his nearly a decade in power, but critics accuse him of restricting political opposition and basic rights.

Polls have opened in 100 townships across the country, with the military claiming 52 percent turnout in the first round.

Myanmar has resumed voting in the second phase of the three-part general elections amid a raging civil war and allegations the polls are designed to legitimise military rule.

Polling stations opened at 6am local time on Sunday (23:30 GMT on Saturday) across 100 townships in parts of Sagaing, Magway, Mandalay, Bago and Tanintharyi regions, as well as Mon, Shan, Kachin, Kayah and Kayin states.

Many of those areas have seen clashes in recent months or remain under heightened security.

Myanmar has been ravaged by conflict since the military ousted ⁠a civilian government in a 2021 coup and arrested its leader, Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, leading to ​a civil war that has engulfed large parts of the impoverished nation of 51 million people.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s ‍National League for Democracy party, which swept the last election in 2020, has been dissolved along with dozens of other antimilitary parties for failing to register for the latest polls.

The election is taking place in three phases because of the ongoing conflict. The first phase unfolded on December 28 in 102 of the country’s 330 townships, while a third round is scheduled for January 25.

Some 65 townships will not participate due to ongoing clashes.

The military claimed a 52 percent voter turnout after the December 28 vote, while the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which analysts say is a civilian proxy for the military, said it won more than 80 percent of seats contested in the lower house of the legislature.

“The USDP is on track for a landslide victory, which is hardly a surprise given the extent to which the playing field was tilted in ​its favour. This included the removal of any serious rivals and a set of ‌laws designed to stifle opposition to the polls,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser for Crisis Group.

Myanmar has a two-house national legislature, totalling 664 seats. The party with a combined parliamentary majority can select the new president, who can pick a cabinet and form a new government. The military automatically receives 25 percent of seats in each house under the constitution.

On Sunday morning, people in Yangon, the country’s largest city, cast their ballots at schools, government offices and religious buildings, including in Aung San Suu Kyi’s former constituency of Kawhmu, located roughly 25km (16 miles) south of the city.

As she exited her polling station, 54-year-old farmer Than Than Sint told the AFP news agency she voted because she wants peace in Myanmar, even though she knows it will come slowly given the fractured country’s “problems”.

Still, “I think things will be better after the election”, she said.

Others were less enthusiastic. A 50-year-old resident of Yangon, who asked to remain anonymous for safety reasons, said, “The results lie only in the mouth of the military.”

“People have very little interest in this election,” the person added. “This election has absolutely nothing to do with escaping this suffering.”

The United Nations and human rights groups have called the elections a “sham” that attempt to sanitise the military’s image.

Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, said earlier this week that the election was “not a free, fair, nor legitimate election” by “all measures”.

“It is a theatrical performance that has exerted enormous pressure on the people of Myanmar to participate in what has been designed to dupe the international community,” Andrews said.

Laws enacted by the military ahead of the vote have made protest or criticism of the elections punishable by up to 10 years in prison. More than 200 people currently face charges under the measure, the UN said, citing state media.

Separately, at least 22,000 people are currently being detained in Myanmar for political offences, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

SEATTLE — A federal judge Friday blocked President Trump’s administration from enforcing most of his executive order on elections against the vote-by-mail states Washington and Oregon, in the latest blow to his efforts to require documentary proof of citizenship to vote and to require that all ballots be received by election day.

U.S. District Judge John H. Chun in Seattle found that those requirements exceeded the president’s authority, following similar rulings in a Massachusetts case brought by 19 states and in a Washington, D.C., case by Democratic and civil rights groups.

“Today’s ruling is a huge victory for voters in Washington and Oregon, and for the rule of law,” Washington Atty. Gen. Nick Brown said. “The court enforced the long-standing constitutional rule that only States and Congress can regulate elections, not the Election Denier-in-Chief.”

The executive order, issued in March, included new requirements that people provide documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote and a demand that all mail ballots be received by election day. It also put states’ federal funding at risk if election officials didn’t comply.

Officials in Oregon and Washington, which accept ballots as long as they are postmarked by election day, said that could disenfranchise thousands of voters. During the 2024 general election, officials in Washington counted nearly 120,000 ballots that were received after election day but postmarked by it. Oregon officials received nearly 14,000 such ballots.

The judge found that Trump’s efforts violated the separation of powers. The Constitution grants Congress and the states the authority to regulate federal elections, he noted.

Oregon and Washington said they sued separately from other states because, as exclusively vote-by-mail states, they faced particular harms from the executive order.

Trump and other Republicans have promoted the debunked idea that large numbers of people who are not U.S. citizens might be voting. Voting by noncitizens is rare and, when they are caught, they can face felony charges and deportation.

Johnson writes for the Associated Press.

Calls for new elections in Venezuela often assume the existence of basic democratic conditions. In reality, those conditions do not exist. Venezuela cannot hold credible, free, or fair elections today because the country lacks the most fundamental prerequisite of democracy: the rule of law. Without a restoration of institutional independence and a genuine separation of powers, elections would serve only to legitimize an authoritarian system rather than offer Venezuelans a real choice.

Although Venezuela formally maintains the appearance of a constitutional democracy—with a constitution, courts, and a National Assembly—real power is concentrated in the hands of a small group of individuals aligned with the ruling party. Institutions that should act as checks on executive authority instead function as extensions of it.

A clear example is the swearing in of the interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, done by her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, who is the president of the National Assembly.

This concentration of power is not accidental. Over many years, first under Hugo Chávez and later under Nicolás Maduro, the government systematically dismantled institutional independence. A majority of judges were replaced with loyalists, transforming the judiciary into a political tool rather than an impartial arbiter of the law. As a result, courts no longer protect constitutional rights or limit executive overreach; they enforce political decisions.

The definitive rupture of constitutional order occurred after Venezuelans elected an opposition-majority National Assembly in 2015 (following the 2014–2015 political cycle). This democratic outcome represented a clear mandate to challenge executive power, oversee government actions, and restore institutional balance.

After the elections held in July of 2024, despite clear and convincing evidence that the opposition had won, not one Venezuelan institution recognized the result and instead awarded the presidency to Maduro once again.

Rather than accept this result, the Maduro government moved to neutralize the Assembly. Through rulings issued by a politically controlled Supreme Court, the Assembly was declared in contempt, its powers were stripped, and its legislative authority rendered meaningless. To fully sideline the opposition-controlled legislature, the government went further by creating a so-called “Constituent Assembly,” purportedly to reform the constitution. This body was neither elected under fair conditions nor authorized through a legitimate democratic process. Instead, it functioned as a parallel legislature designed to replace the National Assembly altogether. This marked the end of any meaningful separation of powers in Venezuela.

From that point on, Venezuela ceased to operate under its own constitutional framework. There has been no genuine transfer of power, no institutional accountability, and no respect for electoral outcomes that challenge the ruling group’s control.

In this context, calling for new elections without first restoring the rule of law is fundamentally flawed. Elections held under a system where courts, electoral authorities, security forces, and media are controlled by one political faction cannot be free or fair. They do not reflect the will of the people; they merely reproduce the existing power structure.

True elections require an independent judiciary; a neutral and credible electoral authority; respect for the separation of powers; and guarantees of political rights, free speech, and fair competition. None of these conditions currently exist in Venezuela. After the elections held in July of 2024, despite clear and convincing evidence that the opposition had won, not one Venezuelan institution recognized the result and instead awarded the presidency to Maduro once again.

Depolitize the guys with guns

For Venezuela, the path forward is not immediate elections, but a democratic transition. Such a transition must focus first on restoring the rule of law, reestablishing independent institutions, and guaranteeing basic political freedoms. More importantly, making sure that the nation’s security forces are once again impartial and can align with the mandate granted by the people.  

The Venezuelan armed forces have become one of the most decisive instruments of authoritarian control. Far from acting as a neutral guarantor of constitutional order, they operate as an extension of the ruling party. This loyalty is maintained through a combination of political patronage, economic privileges, and legal impunity, ensuring that the military remains aligned with the regime rather than the nation.

Can Venezuela simply declare that everything passed over the last ten years never existed? While morally appealing, such an approach would be legally and practically unworkable.

For any genuine democratic transition to succeed, this dynamic must change. The armed forces must be depoliticized and restored to their constitutional role: defending the sovereignty of the country, not a political faction. Their impartiality is essential to guarantee that electoral outcomes are respected and that citizens can exercise their rights without fear of coercion or intimidation. Without this shift, even well-designed electoral reforms risk collapse under the weight of military interference.

Without this transition, elections risk becoming another instrument of authoritarian control. With it, they can become the foundation for rebuilding Venezuela’s democracy. Only then can elections serve their true purpose: allowing Venezuelans to decide their future freely and without coercion.

The problem of legal continuity

If the diagnosis is clear—that Venezuela cannot hold credible elections under current conditions—the path forward is far less certain. The country faces a fundamental and unavoidable question: how does a society undo more than a decade of institutional erosion without creating legal chaos or collective paralysis?

One of the most difficult challenges of a democratic transition is determining what to do with the body of laws, decrees, and decisions enacted under an illegitimate system. Can Venezuela simply declare that everything passed over the last ten years never existed? While morally appealing, such an approach would be legally and practically unworkable.

Millions of Venezuelans have lived, worked, signed contracts, owned property, and made daily decisions under this framework. Entire economic and social relationships—even distorted ones—have been shaped by these rules. Declaring all of them null and void overnight would risk replacing authoritarianism with legal uncertainty.

A transition must therefore strike a careful balance: recognizing legal reality without legitimizing the system that produced it.

This dilemma is especially acute when it comes to contracts issued by the regime. Some were instruments of corruption or political patronage; others were ordinary commercial or administrative acts necessary for the country to function.

Above all, a transitional process will require political restraint: a recognition that the goal is not to replace one concentration of power with another, but to restore limits on power itself.

Take Chevron for example. Their current operations in the country are legally questionable; many lawyers in the country will tell you that the legal framework under which they are operating has no legal foundation. This will probably make it difficult for other oil companies to go into the country and invest until there is a clear legal framework that they can trust.

A future democratic government will need a principled framework to distinguish between contracts that are inherently illegitimate due to corruption, coercion, or constitutional violations; and contracts that, while issued under an authoritarian regime, involve good-faith third parties and essential services.

This is not a problem unique to Venezuela, but it requires transparent mechanisms—such as independent review bodies or transitional courts—to prevent arbitrariness while restoring public trust.

The constitutional question

Another central issue is whether Venezuela should return to a prior constitutional framework as a foundation for democratic restoration. Some argue that the 1999 Constitution—despite its flaws—remains the last broadly legitimate constitutional document approved by popular vote and could serve as a starting point.

If so, the question becomes procedural: how does the country re-legitimize institutions that still formally exist but have lost all independence?

One possible path is a general referendum authorizing a limited, clearly defined transitional process. Such a referendum could enable the appointment of a new, independent National Electoral Council; establish a transparent mechanism to select new Supreme Court justices; and define the temporary scope and duration of transitional authorities.

This would allow change to occur within an explicit democratic mandate, rather than through ad hoc or purely political decisions.

Importantly, Venezuela does not lack institutions on paper. Courts, electoral bodies, ministries, and legislative frameworks already exist. The challenge is not rebuilding the state from scratch, but cleaning and depoliticizing institutions so they can function independently.

That process will require clear legal standards for independence and accountability. International technical support and observation would help to prevent permanent transitional arrangements by enforcing time-bound mandates. Above all, it will require political restraint: a recognition that the goal is not to replace one concentration of power with another, but to restore limits on power itself.

There are no simple solutions. Any transition will involve compromises, uncertainty, and difficult decisions. But postponing these questions—or pretending elections alone can resolve them—only delays Venezuela’s recovery.

The task ahead is not merely electoral. It is constitutional, institutional, and moral. Reestablishing democratic rule of law will require confronting the past honestly, managing the present responsibly, and designing a future in which no individual or group can again place itself above the law.

Provisional results show Faustin-Archange Touadera received 76.15 percent of the vote in December 28 election.

Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera has won a third term in office, securing an outright majority in the presidential election held on December 28, according to provisional results.

The results announced on Monday showed Touadera received 76.15 percent of the vote, while former Prime Minister Anicet-Georges Dologuele received 14.66 percent and former Prime Minister Henri-Marie Dondra received 3.19 percent.

Voter turnout ‍was 52.42 percent.

Touadera, a 68-year-old mathematician who took power a decade ago, was seeking a third term ⁠after a constitutional referendum in 2023 scrapped the presidential term limit.

He campaigned on his security record in the ​chronically unstable nation after enlisting help from Russian mercenaries and Rwandan soldiers. He also signed peace ‍deals with several rebel groups this year.

The ⁠main opposition coalition, known by its French acronym BRDC, boycotted the election, saying it would not be fair.

Even before the results were announced, Dologuele and Dondra had cast doubt on their credibility, calling separate news conferences to denounce what they described as election fraud.

Dologuele, the runner-up in the 2020 election, told a news conference on Friday that there had been “a methodical attempt to manipulate” the outcome.

“The Central African people spoke on December 28,” Dologuele said. “They expressed a clear desire for change.”

Touadera’s government has denied ​that any fraud took place.

The Constitutional Court has until January 20 to adjudicate any ‌challenges and declare definitive results.

The incoming mayor will take his oath of office with two family editions of the Quran and a 19th century edition, symbolising New York City history, in the public ceremony on Friday.

Zohran Mamdani on Thursday became the first New York City mayor to be sworn in using a Quran.

The first Muslim and South Asian mayor of the United States’ biggest metropolis, Mamdani used his grandfather’s Quran and a 200-year-old copy on loan from the New York Public Library (NYPL) for the private swearing-in event held at a disused subway station under Times Square.

He then plans to use two copies of the Quran that belonged to his grandfather and grandmother for a daytime ceremony at New York City Hall on Friday.

The historic Quran, borrowed from the library, once belonged to Arturo Schomburg, a Black historian and writer who sold his collection of 4,000 books to the NYPL in 1926. His collection became the Schomburg Center for Research in Black Culture.

Schomburg was born in Puerto Rico in the 1870s to parents of German and Afro-Caribbean descent. He later immigrated to New York and was a key player in the Harlem Renaissance of the 1920s and 1930s – a period of intense cultural and intellectual flourishing within New York’s Black community.

The library praised Mamdani’s decision to use Schomburg’s Quran because of its connection to one of New York’s “most groundbreaking scholars and for its simple, functional qualities”.

The small size of the Quran and its black and red ink suggest it was designed for everyday use, the library said. The edition is neither signed nor dated, but its “minute naskh script and its binding, featuring a gilt-stamped medallion filled with a floral composition, suggest it was produced in Ottoman Syria in the 19th century”, the library added.

“The significance of this Quran extends far beyond the beauty of its pages,” said Hiba Abid, curator of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies. “It is a Quran close to the people, not only because of its simple craftsmanship, but also because it is part of the collections of the nation’s largest public library system.”

Anthony W Marx, the library’s president and CEO, said the choice of Quran and its association with Schomburg “symbolises a greater story of inclusion, representation, and civic-mindedness”.

Mamdani is one of only a handful of US politicians to be sworn in with the Quran. New York does not require mayors to take the oath of office with their hand on a religious text, but many past mayors have used a copy of the Bible.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg used a 100-year-old family Bible during one ceremony, while Mayor Bill de Blasio used a Bible that once belonged to US President Franklin D Roosevelt. Mamdani’s predecessor, Mayor Eric Adams, also used a family Bible for his oath.

Mamdani’s faith and his background as a Ugandan-born American of South Asian descent were front and centre during his campaign, which focused on celebrating the diversity of New York.

In viral social media videos, Mamdani also spoke candidly about the effect of the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York and the subsequent rise in Islamophobia in the US. Other videos featured the experiences of everyday New Yorkers, including many of its Muslim and immigrant communities.

Mamdani has also been a firm critic of Israel’s policies towards Palestinians and its genocidal war on Gaza.

Critics like New York Representative Elise Stefanik homed in on Mamdani’s background and left-wing politics as a Democratic Socialist, calling the incoming mayor a “jihadist Communist” and “terrorist” sympathiser.

Mamdani, however, pledged to never hide from his background during a campaign speech. “I will not change who I am, how I eat, or the faith that I’m proud to call my own,” he said during his campaign. “I will no longer look for myself in the shadows. I will find myself in the light.”

Dhaka, Bangladesh – On Tuesday, the premises of Evercare Hospital in Bangladesh’s capital turned into a sombre focal point for a nation’s grief as news filtered out of the medical facility: Khaleda Zia, three-time prime minister and longtime leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), was dead.

Khaleda had been receiving treatment at the hospital since the night of November 23.

Supporters, party leaders and common citizens stood silently in front of the hospital gates, wiping away tears and offering prayers. “The news made it impossible for us to stay at home,” said BNP activist Riyadul Islam. “Since there is no opportunity to see her, everyone is waiting outside. There are tears in everyone’s eyes.”

Her funeral at Dhaka’s Manik Mia Avenue on Wednesday drew tens of thousands of BNP supporters from across the country, alongside leaders of other political parties, interim government head Muhammad Yunus and foreign diplomats – underscoring the imprint of Khaleda’s legacy, and how it extended well beyond Bangladesh’s borders.

But beyond the grief, Khaleda Zia’s death marks a decisive political rupture for the BNP at a critical moment, say political analysts.

With national elections scheduled for February 12, the party is entering the campaign without the leader who remained its ultimate symbol of unity, even during years of illness and political inactivity.

Her passing pushes BNP into a fully post-Khaleda phase, concentrating authority and accountability on her son and acting chairperson, Tarique Rahman, as the party seeks to consolidate its base and compete in a reshaped political landscape following the July 2024 upheaval and the subsequent banning of the Awami League’s political activities.

Legacy as anchor, absence as test

For decades, Khaleda Zia’s relevance extended beyond formal leadership.

Even when absent from front-line politics, she functioned as the party’s moral centre and final authority, helping to contain factionalism and defer leadership questions.

Mahdi Amin, adviser to Tarique Rahman, told Al Jazeera that Bangladesh had lost “a true guardian”, describing Khaleda Zia as a unifying symbol of sovereignty, independence and democracy.

He said the BNP would carry forward her legacy through its policies and governance priorities if elected.

“The hallmark of her politics was a strong parliamentary democracy – rule of law, human rights and freedom of expression,” Amin said, adding that the BNP aims to restore institutions and rights that, he claimed, were eroded during the Awami League’s 15-year rule, between 2009 and 2024, under then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Khaleda’s longtime rival.

Amin insisted that Tarique has already emerged as a unifying figure, citing his role in coordinating the movement against Hasina and formulating a 31-point reform agenda aimed at restoring voting rights and institutional accountability.

Despite these assertions, however, analysts say Khaleda’s absence removes a critical layer of symbolic authority that long helped stabilise the BNP’s internal politics.

Writer and political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmed said Khaleda’s personal charisma played a key role in keeping the party energised and cohesive.

“That rhythm will be disrupted,” he said. “Tarique Rahman now has to prove his leadership through a process. His leadership remains untested.”

Ahmed noted that Khaleda herself was once an untested political figure, rising to national prominence during the mass pro-democracy movement of the 1980s that ultimately led to the fall of military ruler General Hussain Muhammad Ershad. Her husband, the then-President Ziaur Rahman, was assassinated in 1981 during a failed military coup.

Ahmed argued that the February election could play a similar defining role for Tarique Rahman: Success would validate his leadership, while failure would intensify scrutiny.

A tougher electoral terrain

BNP’s challenge is compounded by a transformed opposition landscape.

For more than three decades, Bangladesh’s electoral politics were shaped by a near-binary rivalry between the Awami League and the BNP, a pattern that emerged after the fall of military rule in 1990 and hardened through successive elections in the 1990s and 2000s.

With the Awami League now absent – its political activities banned by the Yunus administration – that two-party dominance has fractured, forcing BNP to compete in a more crowded field that includes a strong alliance led by the Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s biggest Islamist force. The Jamaat coalition includes the National Citizen Party, launched by many of the youth leaders who drove the July 2024 mass movement that forced Hasina out of power and into exile in India.

“This will not be easy for BNP,” Ahmed said. “Post-July [2024] politics has changed the equation. New polarisation is emerging, and the dominance of two parties no longer holds,” he added.

Analysts also point to key uncertainties that linger: whether the election will be held on time, whether it will be peaceful, and whether major parties can ensure public confidence in the process.

Dilara Choudhury, a political scientist who observed both Khaleda and her husband closely, said Khaleda Zia functioned as a “guardian figure” for not just her party, but also the country, and that her death represents the loss of a senior stabilising presence in Bangladesh politics.

Tarique, Khaleda’s son, was in exile in the United Kingdom from 2008 until December 25, 2025, when he returned after a series of cases against him that were initiated by a military-backed government in power between 2006 and 2009, or by the subsequent Hasina government, were closed.

She argued that Tarique’s return to the country has reduced fears of internal division within the party and that his recent speeches – reaffirming Bangladeshi nationalism, rejecting authoritarianism and honouring victims of the 2024 July uprising violence – have reassured party supporters about ideological continuity.

“BNP and Awami League have both been personality-centred parties,” she said. “After Khaleda Zia, it is natural that Tarique Rahman occupies that space within the BNP.”

From legacy to verdict

Yet BNP leaders acknowledge that legacy alone will not determine the party’s future.

Allegations of extortion involving some party activists continue to surface – an issue that adviser Mahdi Amin described as mostly exaggerated, though he said the party plans to address it through stricter internal controls.

At the grassroots level, some party members say Tarique’s leadership transition will not be without challenges.

“It would be unrealistic to say there will be no difficulties,” said Kamal Uddin, senior joint secretary of the Chakaria upazila unit of Jubo Dal, the BNP’s youth wing, in Cox’s Bazar district. “In the past, there were disagreements with senior leaders who worked closely with Khaleda Zia – and even with Ziaur Rahman. That could be a challenge in decision-making. But I believe he will be able to manage.”

Kamal Uddin travelled with three other BNP activists from Cox’s Bazar, a coastal city on the Bay of Bengal about 350km (217 miles) south of Dhaka, to attend Khaleda Zia’s funeral on Wednesday.

Senior BNP leaders, however, dismiss doubts over Tarique’s authority.

Standing committee member Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, who served as commerce minister in Khaleda Zia’s cabinet from 2001 to 2004, said Tarique’s leadership credentials were already established.

“His leadership has been proven,” Chowdhury told Al Jazeera earlier this month. “He is capable of leading the party effectively.”

As BNP prepares for the polls, analysts say the party’s ability to ensure discipline, project reform and contribute to a peaceful election will itself be a test of Tarique’s leadership.

A separate discussion has emerged on social media and among political rivals.

On November 29, ahead of his eventual return, Tarique wrote on his verified Facebook page that the decision to come home was not “entirely within his control” and not “under his sole control”. Critics interpreted this as raising questions about possible external influence – particularly India – on whether and when he would return.

BNP leaders rejected these claims, insisting his return was a political and legal matter tied to domestic realities rather than foreign negotiation, and that national interest would guide the party’s policy if it comes to power.

For many supporters, however, politics remains deeply personal.

Fifty-seven-year-old Dulal Mia, who travelled from the northeastern district of Kishoreganj to attend Tarique’s reception rally in Dhaka on December 25, still recalls the moment that made him a lifelong BNP supporter.

When he was a sixth-grader in 1979, he said, then-President Ziaur Rahman visited the paddy field where he was working and shook his hand. Ziaur Rahman is remembered for addressing drought by digging canals across the country and visiting remote areas barefoot, often without formal protocol.

“Tarique Rahman will have to carry the legacy of his parents,” Mia said. “If he doesn’t, people will turn away. The BNP’s politics is people’s politics – it began with Ziaur Rahman and was carried by Khaleda Zia for so long. I believe Tarique Rahman will do the same. Otherwise, it is the people who will reject him.”

BREAKINGBREAKING,

Mamady Doumbouya faced eight rivals for the presidency, but the main opposition leaders were barred from running.

Guinea coup leader ⁠Mamady Doumbouya has ​been ‍elected president, according ‍to provisional results, paving the way for a ​return ‌to civilian governing after a military takeover nearly five years ago.

The provisional ‌results announced on Tuesday showed Doumbouya winning ‌86.72 percent of the vote held on ⁠December 28 – an absolute majority that allows him to avoid a runoff.

The ‌Supreme Court has eight days to validate the results in the ‍event of any challenge.

Doumbouya, 41, faced eight rivals for the presidency, but the main opposition leaders were barred from running and had urged a boycott of the vote.

The former special forces commander seized power in 2021, toppling then-President Alpha Conde, who had been in office since 2010. It was one in ​a series of ‌nine coups that have reshaped politics in West and Central Africa since 2020.

If history is a guide, Republicans stand a good chance of losing control of the House of Representatives in 2026. They have just a slim majority in the chamber, and the incumbent party usually gives up seats in midterm elections.

President Trump, whose loss of the House halfway through his first term led to two impeachments, is trying to keep history from repeating — and doing so in ways his opponents say are intended to manipulate next year’s election landscape.

He has rallied his party to remake congressional maps across the country to create more conservative-leaning House seats, an effort that could end up backfiring on him. He’s directed his administration to target Democratic politicians, activists and donors. And, Democrats worry, he’s flexing his muscles to intervene in the midterms like no administration ever has.

Democrats and other critics point to how Trump has sent the military into Democratic cities over the objections of Democratic mayors and governors. They note that he’s pushed the Department of Homeland Security to be so aggressive that at one point its agents handcuffed a Democratic U.S. senator. And some warn that a Republican-controlled Congress could fail to seat winning candidates if Democrats reclaim the House majority, recalling Trump’s efforts to stay in power even after voters rejected him in 2020, leading to the violent attack by his supporters on the U.S. Capitol.

Regarding potential military deployments, Ken Martin, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, told The Associated Press: “What he is going to do is send those troops there, and keep them there all the way through the next election, because guess what? If people are afraid of leaving their house, they’re probably not going to leave their house to go vote on Election Day. That’s how he stays in power.”

Military to the polls, or fearmongering?

Democrats sounded similar alarms just before November’s elections, and yet there were no significant incidents. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a frequent Trump antagonist who also warns about a federal crackdown on voting in 2026, predicted that masked immigration agents would show up at the polls in his state, where voters were considering a ballot measure to counter Trump’s redistricting push.

There were no such incidents in November, and the measure to redraw California’s congressional lines in response to Trump’s efforts elsewhere won in a landslide.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the concerns about the midterms come from Democratic politicians who are “fearmongering to score political points with the radical left flank of the Democrat party that they are courting ahead of their doomed-to-fail presidential campaigns.”

She described their concerns as “baseless conspiracy theories.”

Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, denied that Trump was planning to use the military to try to suppress votes.

“I say it is categorically false, will not happen. It’s just wrongheaded,” she told Vanity Fair for an interview that was published earlier in December.

DNC litigation director Dan Freeman said he hasn’t seen an indication that Trump will send immigration enforcement agents to polling places during the midterms, but is wary.

He said the DNC filed public records requests in an attempt to learn more about any such plans and is drafting legal pleadings it could file if Trump sends armed federal agents to the polls or otherwise intervenes in the elections.

“We’re not taking their word for it,” Freeman said in an interview.

States, not presidents, run elections

November’s off-year elections may not be the best indicator of what could lie ahead. They were scattered in a handful of states, and Trump showed only modest interest until late in the fall when his Department of Justice announced it was sending federal monitors to California and New Jersey to observe voting in a handful of counties. It was a bureaucratic step that had no impact on voting, even as it triggered alarm from Democrats.

Alexandra Chandler, the legal director of Defend Democracy, a group that has clashed with Trump over his role in elections, said she was heartened by the lack of drama during the 2025 voting.

“We have so many positive signs we can look to,” Chandler said, citing not only a quiet election but GOP senators’ resistance to Trump’s demands to eliminate the filibuster and the widespread resistance to Trump’s demand that television host Jimmy Kimmel lose his job because of his criticism of the president. “There are limits” on Trump’s power, she noted.

“We will have elections in 2026,” Chandler said. “People don’t have to worry about that.”

Under the Constitution, a president has limited tools to intervene in elections, which are run by the states. Congress can help set rules for federal elections, but states administer their own election operations and oversee the counting of ballots.

When Trump tried to singlehandedly revise election rules with a sweeping executive order shortly after returning to office, the courts stepped in and stopped him, citing the lack of a constitutional role for the president. Trump later promised another order, possibly targeting mail ballots and voting machines, but it has yet to materialize.

DOJ voter data request ‘should frighten everybody’

Still, there’s plenty of ways a president can cause problems, said Rick Hasen, a UCLA law professor.

Trump unsuccessfully pushed Georgia’s top election official to “find” him enough votes to be declared the winner there in 2020 and could try similar tactics in Republican-dominated states in November. Likewise, Hasen said, Trump could spread misinformation to undermine confidence in vote tallies, as he has done routinely ahead of elections.

It’s harder to do that in more lopsided contests, as many in 2025 turned into, Hasen noted.

“Concerns about Trump interfering in 2026 are real; they’re not frivolous,” Hasen said. “They’re also not likely, but these are things people need to be on guard for.”

One administration move that has alarmed election officials is a federal demand from his Department of Justice for detailed voter data from the states. The administration has sued the District of Columbia and at least 21 states, most of them controlled by Democrats, after they refused to turn over all the information the DOJ sought.

“What the DOJ is trying to do is something that should frighten everybody across the political spectrum,” said David Becker, a former Justice Department voting rights attorney and executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research. “They’re trying to use the power of the executive to bully states into turning over highly sensitive data — date of birth, Social Security numbers, driver’s license, the Holy Trinity of identity theft — hand it over to the DOJ for who knows what use.”

‘Voter protection’ vs ‘election integrity’

Voting rights lawyers and election officials have been preparing for months for the midterms, trying to ensure there are ways to counter misinformation and ensure state election systems are easy to explain. Both major parties are expected to stand up significant campaigns around the mechanics of voting: Democrats mounting what they call a “voter protection” effort to monitor for problems while Republicans focus on what they call “election integrity.”

Freeman, the DNC litigation director who previously worked in the DOJ’s voting section, said his hiring this year was part of a larger effort by the DNC to beef up its in-house legal efforts ahead of the midterms. He said the committee has been filling gaps in voting rights law enforcement that the DOJ has typically covered, including informing states that they can’t illegally purge citizens from their voter rolls.

Tina Barton, co-chair of the Committee on Safe and Secure Elections, a coalition of law enforcement and election officials who advise jurisdictions on de-escalation and how to respond to emergencies at polling places, says interest in the group’s trainings has “exploded” in recent weeks.

“There’s a lot at stake, and that’s going to cause a lot of emotions,” Barton said.

Riccardi writes for the Associated Press. AP writers Marc Levy in Harrisburg, Penn., Julie Carr Smyth in Columbus, Ohio, and Ali Swenson in New York contributed to this report.

Voting is under way in Myanmar’s heavily restricted election, the first since the military toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically-elected government in a coup in 2021. Al Jazeera’s Tony Cheng explains the process from a polling station in Yangon.

Myanmar’s election is unlikely to change the reality for more than 1M Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh who fled what the UN called ‘genocidal violence’ in Myanmar. Efforts to repatriate the Muslim minority have stalled since the junta seized power in 2021. Al Jazeera’s Tanvir Chowdhury reports from Cox’s Bazar.

From displaced Palestinian families struggling in the cold winter in makeshift tents in Gaza, Christmas celebrations in Ukraine amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, to the historic gathering of more than one million people in Dhaka welcoming home Bangladesh’s opposition leader Tarique Rahman after his 17-year self-imposed exile, here is a look at the week in photos.

Mamady Doumbouya may win amid accusations of restrictions on the media and the opposition parties.

Guinea is holding a presidential election in which incumbent military leader General Mamady Doumbouya, who took power in a 2021 coup, is widely anticipated to secure victory.

Some 6.7 million registered voters will go to the polls, which opened at 07:00 GMT on Sunday and will close at 18:00 GMT.

The former special forces commander, aged 41, faces eight other candidates in the election, as ousted President Alpha Conde and longtime opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile.

The opposition has called for a boycott of the vote in the mineral-rich country where 52 percent of the population lives in poverty, according to World Bank figures.

While long blighted by coups, Guinea experienced a democratic transition with the November 2010 election of Alpha Conde, the country’s first freely elected president. Doumbouya overthrew him in September 2021.

Under Doumbouya, Guinea effectively “reverted to what it has essentially known since independence in 1958: authoritarian regimes, whether civilian or military”, Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi, told the AFP news agency.

Provisional results could be announced within two days, according to Djenabou Toure, head of the General Directorate of Elections.

Restrictions on opposition

Political debate has been muted under Doumbouya. Civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.

The campaign period “has been severely restricted, marked by intimidation of opposition actors, apparently politically motivated enforced disappearances, and constraints on media freedom”, United Nations rights chief Volker Turk said on Friday.

These conditions “risk undermining the credibility of the electoral process”, he added.

Opposition leader Diallo has condemned the vote as “an electoral charade” aimed at giving legitimacy to “the planned confiscation of power”.

In September, Guinea approved a new constitution in a referendum, which the opposition called on voters to boycott.

The new document allowed military leaders to stand for election, paving the way for Doumbouya’s candidacy.

It also lengthened presidential terms from five to seven years, renewable once.

‘Hope things will be sorted’

Guinea holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and the richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, officially launched last month after years of delay.

Doumbouya has claimed credit for pushing the project forward and ensuring Guinea benefits from its output. His government this year also revoked EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation’s licence after a refinery dispute, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm.

The turn towards resource nationalism – echoed in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – has boosted his popularity, as has his youth in a country where the median age is about 19.

“For us young people, Doumbouya represents the opportunity to send the old political class into retirement,” Mohamed Kaba, a mechanic in Conakry, told the Reuters news agency.

“There is a lot of corruption right now, but I hope these things will be sorted out.”

Yangon, Myanmar – Voters in parts of Myanmar are heading to the polls on Sunday for an election that critics view as a bid by the country’s generals to legitimise military rule, nearly five years after they overthrew the government of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The multi-phased election is unfolding amid a raging civil war, with ethnic armed groups and opposition militias fighting the military for control of vast stretches of territory, stretching from the borderlands with Bangladesh and India in the west, across the central plains, to the frontiers with China and Thailand in the north and east.

In central Sagaing, voting will take place in only a third of the region’s townships on Sunday. Another third will be covered during a second and third phase in January, while voting has been cancelled altogether in the remainder.

Fighting, including air raids and arson, has intensified in several areas.

“The military is deploying troops and burning villages under the guise of ‘territorial dominance’,” said Esther J, a journalist based there. “People here are saying this is being done for the election.”

In most of the region, “we haven’t seen a single activity related to the election,” she said. “No one is campaigning, organising or telling people to vote.”

Across Myanmar, voting has been cancelled in 56 of the country’s 330 townships, with more cancellations expected. The conflict, triggered by the 2021 coup, has killed an estimated 90,000 people and displaced more than 3.5 million, according to monitoring groups and the United Nations. It has left nearly half of the country’s population of 55 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

“People [in Sagaing] say they have no interest in the election,” said Esther J. “They do not want the military. They want the revolutionary forces to win.”

Shifting battlefield

For much of last year, the Myanmar military appeared to be losing ground.

A coordinated offensive launched in late 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of ethnic armed groups and opposition militias – seized vast areas, nearly pushing the military out of western Rakhine state and capturing a major regional military headquarters in the northeastern city of Lashio, about 120km (75 miles) from the Chinese border. Armed with commercial drones modified to carry bombs, the rebels were soon threatening the country’s second-largest city of Mandalay.

The operation – dubbed 1027 – marked the most significant threat to the military since the 2021 coup.

But the momentum has stalled this year, largely because of China’s intervention.

In April, Beijing brokered a deal in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army agreed to surrender the city of Lashio, without a single shot being fired. The military subsequently reclaimed key towns in north and central Myanmar, including Nawnghkio, Thabeikkyin, Kyaukme and Hsipaw. In late October, China brokered another agreement for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army to withdraw from the gold mining towns of Mogok and Momeik.

“The Myanmar military is definitely resurgent,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “If this current trend continues, the Myanmar military could be back in a relatively dominant position in a year or so, maybe two.”

The military turned the tide by launching a conscription drive, expanding its drone fleet and putting more combat credible soldiers in charge. Since announcing mandatory military service in February 2024, it has recruited between 70,000 to 80,000 people, researchers say.

“The conscription drive has been unexpectedly effective,” said Min Zaw Oo, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security. “Economic hardship and political polarisation pushed many young men into the ranks,” he said, with many of the recruits technically adept and serving as snipers and drone operators. “The military’s drone units now outmatch those of the opposition,” he added.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a monitoring group, air and drone attacks by the military have increased by roughly 30 percent this year. The group recorded 2,602 air attacks that it said killed 1,971 people – the highest toll since the coup. It said Myanmar now ranks third in the world for drone operations, behind only Ukraine and Russia.

China, meanwhile, has applied pressure beyond brokering ceasefires.

According to analysts, Beijing pressed one of the strongest armed ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army, to cut off weapons supplies to other rebels, resulting in ammunition shortages across the country. The opposition forces have also suffered from disunity. “They are as fragmented as ever,” said Michaels of the IISS. “Relationships between these groups are deteriorating, and the ethnic armed organisations are abandoning the People’s Defence Forces,” he said, referring to the opposition militias that mobilised after the coup.

China’s calculations

China, observers say, acted for fear of a state collapse in Myanmar.

“The situation in Myanmar is a ‘hot mess’, and it’s on China’s border,” said Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. Beijing, he said, wants to see peace in Myanmar to protect key trade routes, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that, when completed, will link its landlocked Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean and a deep seaport there.

Tangen said Beijing harbours no love for the military, but sees few alternatives.

Indeed, after the coup, Beijing refrained from normalising relations with Myanmar or recognising coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. But in a sign of shifting policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Min Aung Hlaing twice this year. During talks in China’s Tianjin in August, Xi told Min Aung Hlaing that Beijing supports Myanmar in safeguarding its sovereignty, as well as “in unifying all domestic political forces” and “restoring stability and development”.

Tangen said China sees the election as a path to more predictable governance. Russia and India, too, have backed the process, though the UN and several Western nations have called it a “sham”. But Tangen noted that while Western nations denounce the military, they have done little to engage with the rebels. The United States has dealt further blows by cutting off foreign aid and ending visa protections for Myanmar citizens.

“The West is paying lip service to the humanitarian crisis. China’s trying to do something but doesn’t know how to solve it,” Tangen said.

Limited gains, lasting war

The military’s territorial gains, meanwhile, remain modest.

In northern Shan state, Myanmar’s largest, the military has recaptured only 11.3 percent of the territory it had lost, according to the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, a think tank. But it is western Rakhine State that remains the “larger and more intense theatre of war”, said Khin Zaw Win, a Yangon-based analyst.

There, the Arakan Army is pushing beyond the borders of the state, overrunning multiple bases, and pushing east in a move that threatens the military’s defence industries. In northern Kachin state, the battle for Bhamo, a gateway to the north, is approaching its first anniversary, while in the southeast, armed groups have taken a “number of important positions along the border with Thailand”, he said.

So the military’s recent gains in other parts were “not that significant”, he added.

ACLED, the war monitor, also described the military’s successes as “limited in the context of the overall conflict”. In a briefing this month, Su Mon, a senior analyst at ACLED, wrote that the military remains in a “weakened position compared to before the 2021 coup and Operation 1027 and is unable to assert effective control over the areas it has recently retaken”.

Still, the gains give the military “more confidence to proceed with the elections”, said Khin Zaw Win.

The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which has fielded the most candidates, is expected to form the next government. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has been dissolved, and she remains held incommunicado, while other smaller opposition parties have been barred from participating.

Khin Zaw Win said he does not expect the election to “affect the war to any appreciable extent” and that the military might even be “deluded to go for a complete military victory”.

But on the other hand, China could help de-escalate, he said.

“China’s mediation efforts are geared toward a negotiated settlement,” he noted. “It expects a ‘payoff’ and does not want a protracted war that will harm its larger interests.”

Zaheena Rasheed wrote and reported from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and Cape Diamond reported from Yangon, Myanmar.

Citizens of the Central African Republic (CAR) will vote on Sunday in highly controversial presidential and legislative elections expected to extend President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s tenure beyond two terms for the first time in the country’s history.

Touadera, who helped put his country on the map when he adopted Bitcoin as one of its legal tenders in 2022, had earlier pushed through a referendum abolishing presidential term limits. That, as well as significant delays that almost upturned the confirmation of two major challengers, has led some opposition groups to boycott the vote, calling it a “sham”.

CAR will also hold local elections for the first time in 40 years, after a long period of destabilising political conflict, including an ongoing civil war between the predominantly Muslim Seleka rebel movement and the largely Christian Anti-balaka armed groups, which has led to the displacement of one million people. There are fears that the country’s electoral body is not equipped to handle an election on this scale.

The landlocked nation is sandwiched between several larger neighbours, including Chad to the north and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to the south. It has an ethnically and religiously diverse population of about 5.5 million, with French and Sango being the national languages.

Although rich in resources like crude oil, gold and uranium, persistent political instability since independence from France in 1960, and the ongoing civil war (2013-present) have kept CAR one of Africa’s poorest nations. For security, CAR is increasingly reliant on Russian assistance to guard major cities against rebels.

Citizens of CAR are referred to as Central Africans. The country’s largest city and capital is Bangui, named after the Ubangi River, which forms a natural border between CAR and the DRC. The country exports mainly diamonds, timber and gold, but much of the population depends on subsistence agriculture, and economic activity is limited.

Here’s what we know about Sunday’s election:

Who can vote and how does it work?

About 2.3 million Central Africans over the age of 18 are registered to vote for the country’s next president. Of these, 749,000 registrations are new since the previous election in 2020.

They’ll also be voting for national lawmakers, regional and, for the first time in about 40 years, municipal administrators. Average turnout in past years has been about 62 percent, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). There are about 6,700 polling units across the country.

The National Elections Authority initially planned to hold the municipal government elections at the end of August, but moved the polls to December at the last minute, blaming insufficient funds as well as technical and organisational challenges. The decision has added to concerns among election observers and opposition politicians about how prepared the electoral body is.

Campaigning began on December 13, but opposition groups claim that delays in including Touadera’s biggest challengers in the process have favoured the president’s rallies.

The presidential candidate with an absolute majority is declared the winner, but if there is no outright winner in the first round, a second run-off vote will determine the victor.

Although presidents were previously limited to two, five-year terms, a controversial 2023 referendum introduced a new constitution which removed term limits and increased each term to seven years.

Who is running for president?

The country’s constitutional court approved Touadera’s candidacy alongside prominent opposition leader Anicet-Georges Dologuele, ex-Prime Minister Henri-Marie Dondra, and five others.

However, delays in approving the two major opponents and concerns around the readiness of the electoral body have led an opposition coalition, the Republican Bloc for the Defence of the Constitution (BRDC), to boycott the election. The group has, therefore, not presented a candidate.

Here is what we know about the candidates who are standing:

Faustin-Archange Touadera

Touadera, 68, is a mathematician and former vice chancellor of the University of Bangui. He is running under the ruling United Hearts Movement (MCU).

He served as the country’s prime minister from 2013 to 2015 under President Francois Bozize. He was elected as president in 2016 and again in 2020, although opposition groups contested the vote.

Touadera, who is the favourite to win in these polls, has campaigned on promises of peace, security and new infrastructural development in the country.

After 10 years in office, the president’s legacy is mixed. His administration has been dogged by accusations of suppressing the opposition and rigging elections.

Indeed, Touadera would not be eligible to run had he not forced the 2023 referendum through. He sacked a chief judge of the constitutional court in October 2022, after she ruled that his referendum project was illegal.

Opposition members boycotted the referendum, but that only gave the Touadera camp more “yes” votes. Although a civil society group launched a legal challenge against his candidacy before the polls, the constitutional court threw out the suit.

Touadera is credited with spearheading some economic development, compared with his predecessors. New roads and highways have been built where there were previously none, but the World Bank still ranks CAR’s economy as “stagnant”.

Touadera has also been praised for achieving relative stability in the conflict-affected country where armed groups hold swaths of territory, especially in the areas bordering Sudan.

Support from a United Nations peacekeeping force, Rwandan troops and Russian Wagner mercenaries has helped to reduce violence in recent years.

CAR was the first country to invite the Russian mercenary group to the continent in 2018 in a security-for-minerals deal, before other countries, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, also secured security contracts.

CAR was historically closer to former colonial power France, but Paris suspended its military alliances and reduced aid budgets to the country in 2021 following the Russia cooperation.

At a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2023, Touadera praised Russia for saving CAR’s democracy. The two met again in January 2025.

In advance of the elections, Touadera has also signed a series of peace accords with some armed groups active in the country, although there are fears that the agreements will only hold until after the polls.

The president launched Bitcoin as a legal tender in 2022, making CAR the second country to do so after El Salvador. The idea drew scepticism, as less than 10 percent of Central Africans can access the internet, and was ultimately abandoned after a year.

In February 2025, CAR launched the $CAR meme coin, which the government said is an experiment.

This week, Touadera’s government signed a new contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink to expand internet services to rural and remote regions.

Henri-Marie Dondra

The 59-year-old is a career banker and former finance minister. He is running under his Republican Unity party (UNIR), which has positioned itself as a reformist party and is not part of the opposition coalition. He served as prime minister under Touadera between 2021 and 2022 but was fired, likely because of his strong pro-France tendencies at a time when the administration was turning towards Russia, according to reporting by French radio, RFI.

Dondra’s candidacy was not approved until November 14, after Touadera accused him of holding Congolese citizenship, which he denied. The accusations raised fears that he would be barred from the vote. Two of his brothers were reportedly arrested and detained without charge before the vote, Dondra told Human Rights Watch in late November.

Anicet-Georges Dologuele

The main opposition leader of the Union for Central African Renewal (URCA) party broke from the boycotting opposition coalition in order to run in these elections. Dologuele’s candidacy has prompted what some analysts say are xenophobic statements from Touadera’s supporters.

The 68-year-old dual citizen French-CAR politician first ran for the top job back in 2015 and was the runner-up in the 2020 presidential race. His third bid has faced challenges over his citizenship status. The 2023 referendum limited candidates to CAR citizenship only, and derisive comments from some in the governing camp have suggested some opposition candidates are not “real Central Africans”.

In September, Dologuele said he had given up his French citizenship; however, in October, a Central African court stripped him of his CAR citizenship, citing a clause in the old constitution disallowing dual citizenship. Dologuele reported the issue as a violation of his human rights to the UN human rights agency. It’s unclear what, if any, action the agency took, but Dologuele’s name on the final candidates list suggests his citizenship was reinstated.

Dologuele served as prime minister in the 1990s, under President Ange-Felix Patasse, before joining the Bank of Central African States and later heading the Development Bank of Central African States.

Although he is seen by some as an experienced hand, others associate him with past government failures. Dologuele is promising stronger democratic institutions and better international alliances.

Other notable candidates

• Aristide Briand Reboas – leader of the Christian Democratic Party, the 46-year-old was a former intelligence official and the sports minister until 2024. He is running on promises of better amenities, including electricity and water. He previously ran in 2020.
• Serge Djorie – a former government spokesperson until 2024, the 49-year-old is running under his Collective for Political Change for the new Central African Republic party. The medical doctor and published researcher has campaigned on public health reforms, poverty reduction and more pan-Africanism. Djorie ran in the 2020 elections.
• Eddy Symphorien Kparekouti – The civil engineer helped draft the new constitution that was controversially adopted in 2023. In his campaigns, the independent candidate has emphasised poverty reduction in order to solve political insecurity and other developmental challenges.

What are the key issues for this election?

Armed groups

Protracted political conflict in CAR has continued for more than a decade, with many Central Africans saying they want a leadership that can bring peace.

Trouble began following a coup in March 2013 by the mainly Muslim Seleka rebel alliance that overthrew President Francois Bozize. In retaliation, Bozize assembled Christian and animist rebel armed groups, known as the Anti-balaka. Both sides attacked civilians and have been accused of war crimes by rights groups. Bozize, who continues to lead a rebel coalition, is now in exile in Guinea-Bissau. His attempted attacks in 2020 were fended off by Touadera’s Russian mercenaries.

However, killings, kidnappings and displacement continue in many rural communities in the country’s northwest, northeast and southeast regions, despite recent peace deals signed with some groups. Russian mercenaries have proven pivotal in securing major areas, but are also accused of human rights violations, such as mass killings, while opposition politicians have criticised the reliance on foreign fighters.

A 17,000-strong UN peacekeeping force, MINUSCA, has been extended until November 2026, although the move faced resistance from the US, which wants CAR to handle its own security going forward. The force has suffered at least three deaths in deadly attacks this year alone. There are also fears about the security of voters in rural areas; about 800 voting units were forced to close in the last elections due to rebel violence.

Poverty

CAR remains one of the poorest nations in the world, with more than 60 percent of the population living in poverty, according to the World Bank.

Most people live in rural areas and survive on subsistence farming in the absence of any state-propelled industry.

Economic growth rate is slow, averaging 1.5 percent yearly. Only 16 percent of citizens have access to electricity, and only 7.5 percent have access to the internet.

Persistent fuel shortages make economic activity more difficult.

The country ranked 191st of 193 countries in the 2022 Human Development Index.

Divisive politics

The country’s turbulent political history and the present landscape of deeply divided political groups have failed to deliver a unified opposition coalition that can challenge Touadera and enshrine a functioning democracy.

Fears around whether Touadera intends to run for life following the 2023 referendum are high, with opposition and rights groups already calling for reforms to the new constitution. There are also fears around vote rigging in the elections in favour of Touadera’s governing party.

Washington’s top diplomat says he thanked Asfura, who was backed by Trump, for ‘advocacy of US strategic objectives’.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has congratulated Honduran President-elect Nasry Asfura, whom President Donald Trump had endorsed, for his victory in the Central American country’s contentious election.

The Department of State said on Friday that Rubio and Asfura in a phone call discussed collaboration on issues such as trade and security.

“Secretary Rubio commended President-Elect Asfura for his advocacy of US strategic objectives, including advancing our bilateral and regional security cooperation, and strengthening economic ties between our two countries,” the State Department said in a statement.

Asfura claimed a narrow victory on Wednesday in the November 30 election marked by Trump’s intervention on his behalf. Election authorities declared Asfura the winner after weeks of counting amid high tensions and allegations of fraud and impropriety from other candidates.

The right-wing Asfura, representing the National Party, edged out Salvador Nasralla of the centre-right Liberal Party with 40.27 percent of the vote to Nasralla’s 39.53 percent.

“Today, with deep gratitude, I accept the honour of being able to work for you. I extend my hand so we can walk together with determination to work tirelessly for Honduras. I will not fail you,” Asfura said in a video statement released on Wednesday night.

Both Nasralla and Rixi Moncada, the candidate for current President Xiomara Castro’s left-leaning LIBRE Party, who came in a distant third, have disputed the results of the election.

Nasralla said on Wednesday that election authorities had “betrayed the Honduran people”. He also took aim at Trump, who said before the election that a victory for anyone but Asfura would put US economic ties with Honduras at risk.

“Mr President, your endorsed candidate in Honduras is complicit in silencing the votes of our citizens,” Nasralla said in a social media post. “If he is truly worthy of your backing, if his hands are clean, if he has nothing to fear, then why doesn’t he allow for every vote to be counted?”

Honduras has experienced several contested elections since a US-backed coup in 2009. Protests over the November election have thus far remained peaceful.

Before the election, Trump also issued a criticised pardon for right-wing former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was convicted of crimes linked to the trafficking of drugs to the US during his time in office.

The pardon came as the US says it is shifting its foreign policy focus to the Americas.

Asfura, the former mayor of Honduras’s capital, Tegucigalpa, is of Palestinian descent. But his National Party is staunchly pro-Israel.

Under Hernandez in 2021, Honduras became only the fourth country to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in breach of international law.

Asfura has also aligned himself with Trump and other right-wing leaders in the Americas, including Argentina’s Javier Milei.

Asfura says he is ready to govern after narrow vote as the US urges ‘all parties to respect the confirmed results’.

Nasry Asfura, a conservative candidate backed by United States President Donald Trump, has won the closely contested presidential elections in Honduras, the country’s election council has said.

The final results, announced on Wednesday – more than 20 days after the vote took place – are likely to lead to challenges in the Central American nation.

According to the electoral authority, known as the CNE, Asfura won 40.3 percent of the vote, edging out centre-right Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla, who received 39.5 percent.

In a brief social media post, Asfura thanked the CNE on Wednesday. “Honduras: I am prepared to govern. I will not fail you,” he wrote.

Trump had come out strongly in support of Asfura, attacking Nasralla and left-wing candidate Rixi Moncada, who ended up garnering less than 20 percent of the votes.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quick to congratulate Asfura on Wednesday, saying that Washington looks forward to working with him.

“The people of Honduras have spoken: Nasry Asfura is Honduras’ next president,” Rubio wrote in a social media post.

In a separate statement, Rubio urged “all parties to respect the confirmed results” of the elections.

Earlier this month, Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez – a member of Asfura’s National Party – who was serving a lengthy prison sentence in the US for drug trafficking.

Asfura, the former mayor of Honduras’s capital, Tegucigalpa, is of Palestinian descent. But his National Party is staunchly pro-Israel.

Under Hernandez in 2021, Honduras became only the fourth country to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem in breach of international law. Asfura has also aligned himself with Trump and other right-wing leaders in the Americas, including Argentina’s Javier Milei.

The Argentinian president hailed Honduras’s election results on Wednesday, calling it a victory against “narcosocialism”, although the National Party’s Hernandez is a convicted drug trafficker.

“The Honduran people expressed themselves with courage at the ballot boxes and chose to end years of authoritarianism and decay,” Milei wrote in a social media post.

“From Argentina, we celebrate the triumph of freedom and reaffirm our commitment to democracy, the popular will, and the unrestricted respect for institutions in the region.”

Asfura’s victory marks another win for right-wing candidates in Latin America over the past year. Chile and Bolivia have also elected ultraconservative presidents in 2025, and last year, El Salvador’s right-wing leader Nayib Bukele comfortably won re-election.

The results appear to reverse the “Pink Tide” – the wave of left-wing leaders who rose to power in the region in the early 2020s.

The rise of right-wing governments in the region coincides with a US pressure campaign against Venezuela’s left-wing President Nicolas Maduro.

Trump has imposed an oil blockade on Venezuela and amassed US troops and military assets near the country.

BNP plans historic rally as Rahman, seen as a key leader, marks his highly anticipated homecoming.

Bangladesh’s main opposition party says it is preparing a vast show of support as its leader, Tarique Rahman, prepares to return home after nearly 17 years in exile.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) aims to mobilise up to five million supporters in the capital to welcome Rahman, who is widely viewed as the party’s prime ministerial frontrunner for the country’s parliamentary elections scheduled for February.

His expected arrival from London on Thursday comes as the BNP regains momentum after the removal of longtime leader Sheikh Hasina in a student-led uprising last year.

Rahman, 60, is the son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia and currently serves as the BNP’s acting chairman.

Since 1991, power in Bangladesh has largely alternated between Zia and Hasina, apart from brief caretaker administrations. With Hasina’s Awami League barred from contesting the February 12 vote, the BNP now appears positioned to dominate the race.

‘A defining political moment’

BNP leaders say they are coordinating security arrangements with authorities for what they call an “unprecedented” mobilisation, with supporters expected to line the route from the airport to the reception venue.

“This will be a defining political moment,” senior BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said.

Rahman has lived in London since 2008 after facing multiple criminal convictions in Bangladesh, including money laundering and charges linked to an alleged plot to assassinate Hasina. Courts acquitted him following Hasina’s removal from office, removing the legal obstacles that had delayed his return.

BNP officials said Rahman will proceed directly from the airport to the rally venue before visiting his mother, who has been seriously ill for months.

The homecoming unfolds during a fragile transition overseen by an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The election is seen as a critical test of Bangladesh’s ability to restore democratic legitimacy after years of political turmoil.

Concerns persist over sporadic violence and recent attacks on media outlets, raising questions about the state’s capacity to ensure a credible vote.

The National Citizen Party (NCP), which emerged from the youth protest movement that toppled Hasina, welcomed Rahman’s return.

“Rahman was forced into exile under severe pressure and threats, so his homecoming carries symbolic weight,” said NCP spokesperson Khan Muhammad Mursalin. “His arrival will undoubtedly energise party leaders and supporters … On the path to democracy, we will stand with him.”