economic

Damascus, Syria – For many Syrians, the decades of rule by the al-Assad family – Hafez al-Assad from 1971 to 2000, then his son Bashar from 2000 to 2024 – were filled with oppression from the state and eventually more than a decade of civil war.

But one of the most important legacies has been an economic one – the result of the sanctions imposed by a number of countries, led by the United States, that effectively froze Syria out of the international economic system.

Despite the fall of Bashar al-Assad after rebel groups defeated him in December 2024, many of the sanctions, including a “state sponsor of terrorism” designation, have remained.

The designation has impeded Syria’s rejoining of the international community, while sanctions have impacted Syrians. Sending money back home from abroad often requires routing transfers through neighbouring countries, such as Lebanon or Turkiye, while access to some websites and online services, including Netflix and Slack, may require a virtual private network.

But there has been a positive reaction to the announcement on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump that his administration will remove Syria from the state sponsor of terrorism list.

The lifting of previous US sanctions, such as those related to the Caesar Act, has not transformed the Syrian economy, but it is hoped that those linked to the “state sponsor of terrorism” listing will allow the country to finally flourish.

“God willing, it will improve things,” said Ihab, a pastry shop owner in central Damascus.

Reintegration

US sanctions are thought to have been a huge barrier to foreign investors since the rule of Bashar al-Assad.

The World Bank said that since 2011, sanctions have led to a major collapse in exports and an increase in the trade deficit.

After the fall of the al-Assad government, interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s administration has identified the removal of all international and US sanctions as the key to reinvigorating the economy.

Al-Sharaa, the former head of the al-Qaeda-aligned Nusra Front, was himself sanctioned by the United Nations and was wanted as a “terrorist” by the US. But he has made efforts to shed those associations and build trust internationally, including by pledging to play a role in the fight against ISIL (ISIS).

His efforts have largely been successful, with the European Union and the US removing many of the sanctions on Syria and on al-Sharaa himself. The sanctions linked to the US’s “state sponsor of terrorism” list are among the few to remain.

The first “state sponsor of terrorism” designation on Syria was during Hafez al-Assad’s rule in 1979, due to the government’s support for Palestinian armed groups.

Additional sanctions were imposed on the state and individuals associated with the al-Assad regime, due to their systematic use of torture and chemical weapons.

Some rebel groups were also sanctioned due to their links to al-Qaeda and other banned organisations.

Al-Sharaa ended al-Nusra Front’s affiliation with al-Qaeda in 2016 and effectively eschewed the group’s ideology.

He also moved to establish a broader, national armed coalition dedicated to fighting the Assad government, later becoming Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

In May 2025, around the time Trump met al-Sharaa in Riyadh, the US president promised to remove many of the sanctions on the Syrian government. But the expected removal from the “state sponsor of terrorism” list will be particularly welcome as it gets rid of one of the main barriers for international banks and companies.

“This is extremely significant because it’s the last major impediment to international economic and political engagement with Syria and with the al-Sharaa administration, and in terms of reintegrating Syria back into the international order and indeed the international economic and political system,” Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer on security studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

Struggling economy

However, he is careful to add that the removal of the designation does not mean a flood of investment will instantly start pouring into Syria.

“This is a big hurdle that’s been overcome, but it doesn’t mean that there’s no more hurdles to investment or engagement with Syria.”

He added that international actors may be concerned about the government’s control and ability to confront remnants from the al-Assad regime, a potential ISIL (ISIS) comeback, bureaucratic impediments and corruption.

Some Syrians were also sceptical that the designation change would lead to instant results.

“This needs a long breath,” said a minimarket owner in Damascus, who refused to give his name. “You can’t sleep and wake up and expect change.”

He referred to ongoing economic problems and rising costs, as well as a recent fuel shortage.

“There’s no economy, and there’s no investment.”

Other Syrians were more hopeful that the economy, and other aspects of daily life, would improve. Still, there is a recognition that a little more patience is needed.

For some, that patience has worn out, such as the minimarket owner. Others, however, are biding their time.

At a juice stall in central Damascus, Zaher counted money received from a customer.

“I’m on the street with my cart and nobody is bothering me,” he said. “Electricity is getting better, but nothing gets better after just one day.”

“It took God Almighty six days to create Earth,” the 50-year-old said. “These things take time.”

The second half of the year rests on a delicate chain of dominoes, according to a new briefing from Oxford Economics, and whether the US-Iran peace agreement holds is the factor that determines how the rest fall.

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“Its durability will determine whether the global economy gets an energy-driven disinflation tailwind or absorbs a second oil shock,” stated chief global economist Ryan Sweet in the report, calling the deal “the key domino that will determine whether other risks are amplified or dampened”.

The consultancy expects the global economy to accelerate, forecasting annualised growth of 3.1% in the second half against an estimated 1.6% in the first, powered chiefly by cheaper oil feeding through to household incomes, although Sweet puts the odds of reaching a durable deal at “a coin flip”.

If the truce holds, Oxford Economics sees Brent crude averaging in the low $70s per barrel, easing inflation and financial conditions across emerging markets and tech valuations.

If it breaks, the consequences would not stay contained to the oil market.

Early on Wednesday, the US military attacked Iran after it said Tehran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes targeting Bahrain and Kuwait. The regional crossfire raised the risk that the interim agreement to halt fighting in the war could break down. However, the exchange of fire followed a pattern of similar attacks during the deal’s shaky ceasefire, and neither country immediately signalled it would step away from the negotiating table.

Oil prices reacted to the attacks by increasing more than 3% by Wednesday morning, with international benchmark Brent trading above $76 a barrel.

“A peace deal breakdown won’t just raise oil prices, it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions, and could shift the outcome of the US midterms and Israeli elections […] the cascade runs fast,” Sweet stated.

A coinflip with a $20 spread

Not everyone shares Oxford Economics’ outlook for oil prices.

Morgan Stanley’s mid-year outlook, published in May, forecast crude climbing back to roughly $90 a barrel by the end of the year, a gap of some $20 compared with Oxford Economics’ forecast that amounts to two different bets on the same peace process.

The World Bank is also more cautious, forecasting Brent crude to average about $94 a barrel this year while warning that global GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026.

Reflecting on how the recent exchange of attacks is testing the fragile truce, Sweet said, “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a good bellwether. The deal committed to fully restoring traffic through the chokepoint within 30 days, making mid-July the first hard deadline,” he explained.

“A sustained return to 75% or more of pre-war traffic by mid-July would increase the odds that the agreement is holding and vice versa,” Sweet concluded.

The other indicator, he says, is whether Iran formally invokes the accord’s Lebanon clause over Israeli strikes, and whether its response comes in military or rhetorical form.

Tariffs, trade and AI

Trade is another risk that could reshape the outlook.

US Section 122 tariffs are due to expire on 24 July, but Washington has already lined up replacement levies under Section 301. Oxford Economics expects the changes to push effective tariff rates higher from late July as the US seeks to maintain monthly tariff revenues of between $25 billion (€21.8bn) and $30 billion (€26.2bn).

Europe is also taking a tougher stance. The European Commission has more than 50 trade-defence investigations open against China, up from 17 a year ago, and plans to unveil a broader economic security strategy by September.

These trade tensions also feed into the AI boom that has powered financial markets this year.

Oxford Economics notes the US AI industry depends heavily on semiconductors and other hardware shipped from Northeast and Southeast Asia, the regions with the most to lose from any further disruption to commodities passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the umbrella body for central banks, warned that the AI boom increasingly rests on opaque “circular financing” between chipmakers, cloud giants and artificial intelligence labs, as well as lightly regulated private credit, where lending to the sector has quadrupled in five years.

The BIS’s Asia-Pacific chief, Zhang Tao, cautioned that the sector’s reliance on non-bank funding means an AI downturn could trigger a sharper and faster correction than a traditional banking crisis.

Sweet modelled what such a reversal could look like.

“We have created a so-called tech bust scenario where US technology stocks fall by 25% over the course of a year,” he told Euronews.

According to Sweet, such a shock would cause the US economy to “grind to a halt”, spilling over to technology exporters and investor sentiment worldwide, leaving global growth 1.1 percentage points below Oxford Economics’ baseline next year.

Central banks, ballots and the calendar

The final dominoes are policy and politics.

Oxford Economics expects the major central banks to prove more dovish than financial markets currently anticipate, though they could pivot quickly if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falters or AI-input prices signal supply stress.

The nearest test is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision under chair Kevin Warsh later this month, coming on the heels of June’s soft jobs report.

Beyond that lie November’s US midterms and Israel’s general election, due by late October, both of which could influence the Middle East peace process. In September, German state elections could also test the coalition behind Germany’s fiscal policy, a key driver of the eurozone economy.

Oxford Economics also flags genuine upside, from stronger AI-driven productivity to an EU economy that weathered the second quarter surprisingly well.

Whether the resilience in Europe is real will show up first in Germany and in credit data, Sweet argues.

“If corporates were absorbing margin compression from the jump in energy prices without cutting investment and drawing down credit lines, that would strengthen the case that underlying momentum in the economy is better than we expected,” he told Euronews, adding that a contraction in eurozone bank lending would push the other way.

It is important to highlight that the typical Oxford Economics forecast miss is nearly a full percentage point, and the range around this assessment in particular is wider than usual.

The California dream, according to the latest Times’ poll: National Guardsmen patrol the border with Mexico, bayonets at the ready. Every resident, citizen and non-citizen alike, carries a tamper-proof identi ty card (You can’t leave home without it). Countless times a day, the card is shown to bureaucrat or police officer to prove citizenship. The 14th Amendment, guaranteeing citizenship to the U.S.-born, is abrogated. Truant officers, lists in hand, enter classrooms and pull undocumented children from behind their desks, trundling them into vans for shipment to relocation centers. At hospitals nearby, emergency-room doctorsturn away the sick or injured who do not possess the identity card.

Every now and then, the people of California surrender themselves to a recurrent paranoid delusion that is virtually a badge of Californian identity. Now is such a time. And the combination of a paranoid-delusional populace and demagogic politicians has engendered among Californians a mean-spiritedness, a detachment from reality–and worse, a fear of freedom itself.

It happened in Los Angeles on Oct. 24, 1871, when a mob, which included some of the city’s best citizens, tortured and hanged 17 Chinese men from downtown lampposts, among them a teen-age boy, then looted the Chinese quarter.

It happened in the 1930s, in the midst of the mother of all Depressions, to Dust Bowl migrants. In February, 1936, the city of Los Angeles declared both the federal and state constitutions null and void, dispatched 126 police officers to seal off all California’s land borders from entry by migrants–all American citizens–who could not prove their net worth.

It happened most sweepingly in 1942, when American citizens of Japanese descent were shipped off to what were euphemistically called relocation centers.

It happened in June, 1943, when thousands of young servicemen wandered the streets of Los Angeles, beating up young Mexican males, stripping them of their zoot suits, blaming them, implicitly and explicitly, for the fact that they, the Anglos, had to go off to war while the Mexican youths were able to stay home and jitterbug.

As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s deja vu all over again.” Just as Californians once believed that the Chinese, the Japanese, the Dust Bowlers, or Mexican youths in zoot suits were the cause of their ills, they now believe, with the full force of mass psychosis, that illegal immigrants–read: illegal Mexicans–constitute the gravest threat to our way of life, in a close third to the economy and crime, to which illegal immigration is intimately linked.

Think of it! Mexican illegals responsible for bloated bureaucracy. Mexican illegals responsible for special-interest-dominated politicians. Mexican illegals responsible for a soaring divorce rate, the breakdown of the family, AIDS, venereal disease, declining standards in culture and education, anti-female violence in rap music, drugs, child abuse, spousal batterings, the loss of religion and personal morality, deferred maintenance of the infrastructure, teen-aged pregnancies, the Inquisition of political correctness, slovenliness in personal dress–or whatever other symptom one might choose to signify the decline of California as a culture.

To say all this is not to deny that California faces a terrible array of problems, including illegal immigrants. As Delmore Schwartz once pointed out, even paranoids have enemies. Illegal immigrants are a drain on the public sector. The underground economy–with its exploitative wages, lack of benefits, forged and perjured documents–corrupts employer and employee alike.

Furthermore, in an economy partly dependent upon illegal immigration, citizenship is devalued. What previous generations struggled for across a lifetime–the chance to live and work in America–is stolen by means of false papers. The ghetto existence of illegal immigrants reinforces an unfortunate tendency in the legal immigrant community not to learn English, not to assimilate, on some level, the language, legal and institutional structures, heritage and historical identities of the United States of America.

As bad as these problems are, however, they are not the whole picture. The state’s current malaise cannot be blamed on the young busboy, far from home, washing dishes late into the night in an upscale restaurant on the Westside. Indeed, in the vast majority of instances, Mexican illegals are doing the work that others–even those on welfare–will not do, yet needs to be done.

How did we lose faith in the premise of America and California, which is freedom and an open society, personal liberty, courage, fairness and, whenever possible, generosity to others who also wish something better for themselves? Why are we talking about bayonets on the border when, every day, there are tens of thousands of legal crossings between Mexico and California crucial to the survival of our economy? Why are we scapegoating obliquely, perhaps, yet with loathsome effectiveness, the fact of Mexican immigration to America, an immigration that was absolutely necessary for the creation of modern California?

Mexican labor built the interurban electrics that made possible modern Los Angeles and its hinterlands. Mexican labor played the major role in the creation of the agricultural economy that still remains the leading component of California’s domestic product.

Californians had it easy in that long arc of prosperity extending from World War II through the ‘80s? When it was taken away–when California began to suffer like the Rust Belt or rural New England or Appalachia–they turned around and blamed the weakest, especially an underclass approaching non-personhood.

Paranoia is intrinsically self-destructive. Paranoids not only blame others; they do damage to themselves. And so it is not surprising that the current paranoid-delusional mind-set, not content with soldiers on the border and identity cards, with kids yanked from classrooms and the sick denied treatment, now seeks to sink the North American Free Trade Agreement. True, the treaty requires some amending, but to kill the entire idea of economic cooperation with Mexico on the ground that Mexico will hijack our economy is to betray in an instant how far our self-esteem has sunk, how far we have devolved into paranoia. We want it both ways: to see the Mexicans as, on the one hand, illegals enervating our social system; and, on the other, to see them back on their own turf, capable of stealing our industrial base.

What a horrible hypocrisy for California to simultaneously exploit and berate those who come only for a better life.

Originally published in Spanish on Asdrúbal’s personal Substack

There are weeks that change a government. And there are weeks that change a country. This is one of them.

Until just a few days ago, the economic debate regarding Venezuela revolved around how much we would grow this year. Around whether the figure would be 4% or 6%, and at what point that growth would materialize in people’s daily lives: exchange rate stabilization, the reestablishment of relations with multilateral organizations, and the possibility of slowly beginning a recovery process.

On the morning of June 24th, a Financial Times scoop centered the discussion on the actual size of our foreign debt. That was the horizon. Today, the horizon no longer looks like that. The earthquakes that struck this week not only leave a human tragedy of dimensions still difficult to quantify; they also profoundly alter the country’s economic outlook. International evidence shows that a major earthquake can generate losses equivalent to between 3% and 10% of GDP, depending not only on physical damage but on the State’s capacity to respond.

Anyone who thinks the problem is limited to the cost of rebuilding highways, hospitals, or housing is seeing only a part of the picture. Earthquakes destroy infrastructure, but they also destroy productivity, employment, tax revenues, logistical chains, and confidence. Thousands of businesses interrupt operations, families postpone consumption and investment decisions, and economic activity loses momentum for months or even years. The expectations and decisions of economic agents are disrupted by a widespread sense of loss and uncertainty.

The economic literature is quite consistent on this point. Studies by the World Bank, the IMF, and numerous academic papers conclude that the impact of a natural disaster depends far less on the intensity of the phenomenon itself than on the institutional strength of the affected nation. Economies with solid States tend to absorb the initial shock and recover relatively quickly. Conversely, in fragile States, a natural disaster often mutates into a prolonged economic crisis because institutional weakness amplifies the damage and delays reconstruction.

The economic agenda will no longer be dominated exclusively by growth, but by reconstruction. We need to prevent the disaster from destroying a large part of Venezuela’s remaining physical and human capital.

That is precisely Venezuela’s primary challenge. Over the years, the country lost fiscal, technical, and operational capacity. This is not a political assessment, but an observable fact. The State’s capacity to design public policy has been significantly reduced. The prolonged economic crisis and hyperinflation led us to a state of “save yourself if you can.”

The difficulties in maintaining basic infrastructure, public utilities, or the hospital network were already evident before the earthquake. Rebuilding cities like La Guaira demands far more than financial resources: it requires planning, engineering, contracting capacity, technical supervision, and a public administration capable of coordinating thousands of projects simultaneously. Today, the Venezuelan State lacks a good portion of those capabilities.

Our recent history shows how society has demonstrated resilience where the State has lost capacity. The private sector, non-governmental organizations, churches, universities, and multiple civil society initiatives have, through years of crisis, developed a remarkable ability to organize, mobilize resources, and respond swiftly to emergencies. We saw it during the pandemic, during the landslides in Las Tejerías, and in so many other humanitarian crises. And we are seeing it now. This accumulated experience will be one of the most critical assets in confronting this tragedy, though on its own, it remains insufficient to undertake a reconstruction of this magnitude.

It would be a mistake to turn international aid into a battleground for confrontation. Venezuela doesn’t need speeches on sovereignty, but engineers, heavy machinery, hospitals, drinking water, electricity, and the capacity to rebuild.

That is why I maintain that this earthquake completely changes the economic conversation. Just a few weeks ago, we were discussing how to accelerate growth, attract investment, or deepen reforms. We argued that institutional reform was necessary for Venezuela to achieve sustained and inclusive growth. Today, the priority has shifted to preventing the disaster from destroying a large part of the country’s remaining physical and human capital. The economic agenda will no longer be dominated exclusively by growth, but by reconstruction.

An inevitable conclusion emerges from this: Venezuela cannot face this challenge alone. This is not merely a matter of securing financing. It will be indispensable to mobilize technical assistance, specialized teams, field hospitals, temporary infrastructure, fast-access credit, and international coordination mechanisms. International cooperation will cease to be a mere complement and will become a necessary condition for recovery.

There’s some good news, however: for the first time in many years, the conditions exist for such cooperation to be possible. The reestablishment of relations with international financial institutions opens a window that until a few months ago seemed firmly shut. It would be a mistake to turn this aid into a new battleground for political confrontation. Countries do not need speeches on sovereignty after an earthquake. They need engineers, heavy machinery, hospitals, drinking water, electricity, and the capacity to rebuild.

The country needs to design a roadmap to achieve broad political agreements, leading to a democratically elected government able to drive the necessary reforms.

Economic history demonstrates that major disasters can become turning points. Some countries seized these tragedies to modernize their infrastructure, strengthen their institutions, and build more resilient economies. Others remained trapped for decades in a cycle of destruction and precariousness. The difference was never solely the magnitude of the earthquake, but the quality of the collective response.

Beyond the immediate emergency, this tragedy also leaves a political lesson that is impossible to ignore. The reconstruction of Venezuela demands more than financial resources or international assistance. It requires leadership with democratic legitimacy and the capacity to build consensus. The country needs to design a roadmap to achieve broad political agreements, leading to a democratically elected government and providing it with the necessary backing to drive the economic and institutional reforms that recovery demands. No reconstruction program will be sustainable unless it rests upon legitimate institutions, clear rules, and a political pact that offers stability, generates trust, and allows for the mobilization of support from the international community and private investment.

That is why I believe this earthquake has not only moved the earth. It shifted Venezuela’s economic horizon. The projections we made just a week ago likely no longer describe the country we will have at the close of this year. The Venezuelan economy has just entered a new phase, and the speed with which we manage to combine the efforts of the State, the proven capacity of the private sector and civil society, and the decisive support of the international community will determine not only the economic performance of 2026, but the real possibilities for recovery over the next decade.

June 24 (Asia Today) — Economic benefits are emerging as a potential deciding factor in Canada’s competition to acquire a new submarine fleet, with South Korea promoting a broad industrial cooperation package to counter a larger economic-impact proposal from Germany.

Canada is preparing to select a preferred bidder for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, a program worth as much as 60 trillion won ($39.2 billion).

German shipbuilder TKMS and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean are the two qualified suppliers remaining in the competition.

Canadian Secretary of State for Defense Procurement Stephen Fuhr said this week that both proposals meet the Royal Canadian Navy’s requirements, according to industry officials.

With the technical assessment effectively completed, the economic and industrial benefits offered by each bidder could become increasingly important in the final evaluation.

Based on publicly disclosed projections, TKMS appears to have proposed the larger economic contribution.

The German company said its proposal could generate 160 billion Canadian dollars in economic activity and add 86 billion Canadian dollars to Canada’s gross domestic product over the life of the program.

It also projected employment totaling more than 650,000 job-years.

Hanwha Ocean said South Korea’s proposal could support more than 22,500 Canadian jobs annually, equivalent to more than 400,000 job-years, and generate approximately 94.1 billion Canadian dollars in cumulative GDP contributions.

Industry officials said the scale and feasibility of the proposed partnerships may be more important than a direct comparison of headline figures.

Hanwha Ocean has established partnerships with more than 100 Canadian companies, universities and other organizations.

HD Hyundai Group has proposed several billion dollars in cooperation across the energy, commercial shipbuilding and naval sectors.

Hyundai Motor Group is also supporting the broader South Korean proposal through Project Beaver, an initiative intended to establish a hydrogen mobility ecosystem in Canada.

The effort is part of a government-backed package that seeks to position South Korea as a long-term industrial and security partner rather than simply a submarine supplier.

Germany is also offering substantial government and industrial support.

TKMS has emphasized its cooperation with Norway, which is jointly developing and acquiring Type 212CD submarines with Germany.

Norway has offered to share experience involving submarine design and maintenance, repair and overhaul systems.

The German proposal also highlights the benefits of integrating Canada into an existing supply and support network among North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies.

Sustainment carries greatest weight

Canada’s evaluation structure places the greatest emphasis on the ability to support the submarines throughout their operational lives.

Sustainment accounts for 50% of the assessment, while the submarine platform itself represents 20%.

Financial considerations account for 15%, with strategic and economic partnerships making up the remaining 15%.

The weighting indicates that Canada’s primary concern is not simply acquiring advanced submarines but ensuring that it can operate and maintain them reliably for several decades.

Some industry observers have cautioned that excessive attention to economic projections could distract from the program’s core defense objectives.

Both South Korea and Germany have proposed major investments, local partnerships and job-creation plans.

Critics say an escalating competition over economic promises could transform a military procurement decision into a broader contest for foreign investment.

The figures presented by the bidders are also based on different assumptions, industries and time periods, making direct comparisons difficult.

The projected employment numbers may include jobs supported for multiple years rather than distinct permanent positions.

“The technological capabilities, delivery competitiveness and industrial cooperation package offered by South Korean shipbuilders are clear strengths,” a South Korean shipbuilding industry official said.

“Both countries are making an all-out effort, so it remains difficult to predict the outcome before the final decision.”

South Korea stresses delivery and industrial ties

Hanwha Ocean is offering a Canadian version of its KSS-III submarine, a platform developed for and operated by the South Korean Navy.

South Korea has emphasized its shipbuilding capacity and ability to deliver vessels within Canada’s accelerated timetable.

The proposal also includes Canadian participation in construction, maintenance, technology development and supply chains extending beyond the submarine program.

South Korean companies have pursued cooperation with Canadian businesses in steel, automotive manufacturing, artificial intelligence, aerospace, energy and critical minerals.

The package is intended to demonstrate that selecting Hanwha Ocean would produce economic benefits across multiple regions and industries in Canada.

TKMS, meanwhile, is offering a submarine supported by the German and Norwegian governments and an established European defense network.

Its proposal stresses operational compatibility with NATO allies, shared training and access to a multinational submarine supply chain.

Canada is expected to announce its preferred approach between late June and early July. Industry officials said a decision could come as early as this week.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260624010008524

Several Russian regions are facing fuel shortages because of Ukrainian attacks.

A Russian missile attack on the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih has killed at least three people, as Moscow struggles with the economic strain of the four-and-a-half-year Russia-Ukraine war.

Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the Kryvyi Rih defence council, said in a post on Telegram on Tuesday that 25 people had been wounded in the attack, which he said used a cluster munition warhead.

“People died within 200 metres [660 feet] of each other because of this barbaric weapon,” Vilkul said, adding that a day of mourning would be marked on Wednesday.

Kyiv has previously accused Moscow of using cluster munitions, which scatter into smaller explosives when dropped.

Reacting to the attack, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for more international pressure on Moscow to end the war and for quicker supplies of air defence systems.

“Every delay in implementing air defence agreements, every delay in supplies to protect Ukraine and Ukrainians is in effect a loss of life,” he wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine announced on Tuesday that its forces had targeted a railway bridge, a power plant and other key infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Weakened rouble

Over the past few months, Russia and Ukraine have significantly ramped up attacks. As Moscow launches barrages of strikes on Ukraine, Kyiv in turn has targeted Russian refineries and infrastructure with its own drones.

Ukraine’s drone attacks have led to fuel shortages in Russia. Many regions across the country have reported restrictions on fuel sales and rising prices for oil products, creating concerns about the stability of Russia’s economy.

On Monday, the Moscow Exchange stock index fell by five percent before it rebounded slightly. It is still around its lowest level since March 2023, while the rouble weakened past the 75-mark against the US dollar for the first time since May 6.

The Kremlin dismissed concerns about the rouble’s weakness.

“The stability of the Russian economy, macroeconomic stability, is absolutely ensured,” government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, efforts to end the war have remained effectively frozen as United States President Donald Trump has shifted his focus to Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told foreign envoys in Moscow on Tuesday that the Americans seemed to be “abandoning any claim to the role of an objective mediator and are instead pursuing a course of escalating sanctions pressure on Russia”.

June 19 (UPI) — Cuba’s parliament approved a package of 174 economic reforms in just one week, marking the most significant shift in government policy in at least 15 years. Driven by President Miguel Díaz-Canel in response to the country’s deepening economic crisis and mounting pressure from the United States, the plan approved Thursday opens the door to private capital and reshapes the rules governing the island’s economy.

Economists and analysts, however, warned that the real impact of the measures will depend on their implementation and on broader institutional changes that remain absent from the government’s plans.

Cuban economist Alfie Ulloa, a professor at the University of Chile’s Law School, told UPI the reforms represent a significant change in official rhetoric but questioned whether they will translate into meaningful change.

“They are a profound adjustment in discourse and, if implemented, would represent an important adjustment to the model. But for now they are nothing more than another declaration like many made in the past. I do not believe they will be implemented, nor that they will truly free the private sector,” Ulloa said.

The package includes 23 areas of transformation and more than 170 measures aimed at loosening state control over the economy. Among the most significant are allowing direct foreign investment in small and medium-sized private businesses, reviewing activities currently prohibited to the private sector, authorizing direct imports and exports by both state and non-state actors, granting greater autonomy to enterprises and gradually replacing broad subsidies with targeted assistance for vulnerable populations.

The reforms also eliminate broad price controls, a policy Díaz-Canel acknowledged had failed after years of inflation, shortages and expansion of the informal market.

While presenting the plan, the president admitted that part of the country’s current crisis stems from longstanding internal problems.

“There are obstacles that do not come from abroad or from the embargo. There is bureaucracy, delays, regulations that prevent people from producing and decisions that we have postponed,” Díaz-Canel said.

The proposal amounts to an implicit acknowledgment of economic policy failures that Cuban authorities had largely attributed to the U.S. embargo for decades. Analysts noted that several of the measures had been debated previously and rejected by the country’s communist leadership.

Many of the initiatives mirror reforms introduced decades ago in China and Vietnam, although they arrive as Cuba faces one of its worst economic crises since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Cuban economist Mauricio de Miranda, a professor at the Pontifical Xavierian University in Cali, Colombia, argued in social media posts that the program points toward a transition from bureaucratic socialism to a form of capitalism controlled by political elites.

“It will become the fast track for relatives and close associates of those in power to become shareholders without anyone knowing where their capital came from,” he warned.

De Miranda said Cuba will inevitably need to privatize part of its state-owned assets to attract investment and rebuild its struggling economy. However, he argued that the process lacks the institutional safeguards needed to prevent wealth from being concentrated among groups close to the government.

“Something like this would require a capital market with clear rules, transparency and equal opportunity,” he said.

Questions about legal protections for investors have also emerged as a central criticism.

“None. Cuba is not a state governed by the rule of law. Citizens are completely defenseless before the state,” Ulloa said when asked about protections for potential investors.

He added that investing in Cuba remains highly risky because government power faces few constraints and judicial institutions lack independence.

Cuban economist Pedro Monreal also criticized the process, questioning the secrecy surrounding the package in a lengthy post on X.

“It should not be surprising that the first act of the ‘transformation proposals’ show has reaffirmed public frustration over the secrecy of those proposals,” Monreal wrote.

Monreal also pointed to the failure of the so-called “Monetary Reorganization Task,” a 2021 reform that eliminated the country’s dual-currency system but became associated with surging inflation and declining purchasing power. He argued that experience severely undermines the credibility of the new package.

Despite the skepticism, several specialists acknowledged that some measures could help address urgent problems if fully implemented.

Ulloa said a genuine opening to private investment, particularly from Cubans living abroad, could help revive agriculture, services and food production. He cautioned, however, that critical sectors such as energy, infrastructure, transportation and banking require investment levels that are unlikely to materialize in the near term.

The Cuban government said Thursday that former President Raúl Castro explicitly endorsed the reforms and expressed full support for the package, describing it as what “best serves the Revolution today.”

For critics, that endorsement highlights one of the process’ central contradictions.

The measures acknowledge problems that independent economists have identified for years, yet leave intact the political structure that many blame for creating the crisis.

“The most important point from my perspective is that we are not talking about deep reforms within a new globalized economy. We are simply talking about removing obstacles,” Manuel Cuesta Morúa, vice president of the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, told Radio Martí.

He said the reforms arrive too late because Cuba’s economy now operates under extensive U.S. sanctions.

According to Cuesta Morúa, progress will require political and diplomatic negotiations to make the measures viable. He argued that the package merely liberalizes some restrictions but does not yet constitute a genuine economic reform program.

He added that authorities must first address citizens’ immediate needs, create confidence through legal certainty and open Cuban society in broader ways.

Analysts agree that the central question is whether this latest reform effort will produce tangible change or join a long list of initiatives that were announced and later postponed.

Regarding the matter, Vice President JD Vance said, “Right now, we are talking with the Cuban government about how they might change their behavior to achieve that. We’ll see what they do and, obviously, if they do one thing, we’ll do another. If they make smart decisions, we’re going to have a much better relationship with that island.”

Just hours later, details of the measures emerged. For now, however, the White House has remained silent.

In the heart of N’Djamena, the capital city of Chad, children aged 10 to 13 scour the streets, scavenging through heaps of garbage and dirt in search of metal scraps known as “adjith kilos.” After collecting discarded items, the pariah children sell them to local dealers or metal manufacturers to earn a living. The troubling situation depicts the challenges families in the bustling city face, raising questions about child welfare and the socio-economic conditions driving children into such a harsh daily endeavour.

Locals said many parents in Chad are struggling to afford their children’s education due to ongoing economic hardships. They added that children suffer from inadequate food supply, with their parents pushing them into the streets to collect and sell “adjith kilos”. The small amount of money they earn from this work is crucial in supporting their families.

In several areas of the country’s capital city, especially in Walia, Chagoua, Diguel and Gassi, boys and girls spend their days scavenging through trash, visiting construction sites and searching roadsides for precious metal objects and iron pieces. The fruit of their daily labour is eventually sold to iron merchants or some intermediaries for some cash.

“I can make between 500 and 1,000 FCFA (about $2) a day when I am lucky to visit several garbage cans in the quarter,” said Moussa, a 12-year-old picking metals from dumpsites in N’Djamena’s Eighth District. He has been out of school for two years, sustaining his family, including his mother and siblings, through daily scavenging. “If I don’t work, we would not eat,” Moussa added.

For most of the children involved in this activity in Chad, it is not a choice but a necessity. Some of the children financially support their families, while others are simply seeking a way to meet their daily needs. Poverty, unemployment and the difficulties in financing their education constitute the principal causes of the problem, local sources said.

Apart from the economic difficulties, collecting metal exposes children to several risks, including injuries from sharp objects, infections, inhalation of hazardous substances, and road accidents. They also face the risks of economic exploitation and the potential for violence that they may encounter in the streets.

“These children are doing a dangerous job which compromises their health, their education and their development,” said Gapili Lemba Valentin, a civil society activist in N’Djamena. They noted how the disturbing phenomenon is more pronounced in the capital city, where the living conditions of several families have deteriorated.

The situation has a direct effect on children’s education. Many of the child scavengers we spoke to expressed a longing for school. They noted how they have had to put their education on hold to search for metals, which helps support their families financially. Unfortunately, this decision puts their future opportunities at serious risk, according to locals and civil society activists.

Despite Chad’s commitment to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child and other international agreements aimed at combating child labour, challenges remain. The country’s labour code also forbids employing minors in hazardous jobs that could jeopardise their health or development. 

However, the enforcement of these laws is limited. Civil society organisations in Chad have called on authorities to enhance social protection mechanisms, support at-risk families, and foster environments that encourage children to remain in school rather than engage in harmful activities. Observers believe that sustainable solutions require improved household management in precarious situations, as well as the creation of economic opportunities for parents and the strengthening of child protection programs.

June 12 (UPI) — Cuba’s government on Friday announced a broad package of economic reforms aimed at restructuring key aspects of the country’s economic model, just hours after the United States imposed a full financial blockade on state oil company Unión Cuba-Petróleo, or CUPET.

Speaking on state television, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel defended the shift toward decentralization, saying that “these are times when change is necessary.”

The measures are part of the government’s 2026 Economic and Social Program, a roadmap inspired by the economic models of China and Vietnam. Havana says the plan is intended to address the island’s deep economic crisis, high inflation and widespread shortages of goods and services.

The reforms came only hours after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on X sanctions against CUPET, freezing all of the company’s assets under U.S. jurisdiction and prohibiting commercial transactions with it.

Rubio said that “Cuba’s communist elites have turned energy into a tool of social control and profit,” accusing the government of hoarding fuel supplies for its own benefit and using them to repress the Cuban people.

“President Donald Trump wants a new future for the Cuban people with greater freedom and opportunity,” Rubio wrote.

The secretary of state said the sanctions were justified because CUPET operates assets that were allegedly confiscated from U.S. owners decades ago. Washington also warned that foreign companies continuing to do business with the state oil company could face secondary sanctions.

Cuba announced the measures two days after the Miami Herald reported on a proposed commercial agreement between Florida-based Vanguard Energy and Cuban agencies to deliver 250,000 barrels of gasoline and diesel fuel intended exclusively for Cuba’s private sector, small and medium-sized enterprises and humanitarian organizations.

The arrangement included a five-year lease of state-owned storage tanks operated by CUPET. Under the proposal, Vanguard would retain ownership of the fuel to prevent it from being diverted to the Cuban government and would operate outside the island’s banking system.

However, within hours of the agreement becoming public, the U.S. State Department halted the shipment, saying the company did not possess a specific license authorizing the transaction and reaffirming that the Trump administration’s sanctions against Cuba remain fully in force.

Despite the tightening U.S. restrictions, Díaz-Canel rejected suggestions that the reforms were a response to pressure from Washington, describing them as a necessary internal restructuring effort.

The economic plan centers on decentralization and greater openness to investment. Municipal governments and state-owned companies will receive expanded authority over imports, exports and foreign currency management in an effort to reduce bureaucratic obstacles.

The government also plans to ease restrictions on private small and medium-sized businesses, open financial investment opportunities for Cubans living abroad and allow foreign companies to lease agricultural land to boost food production.

To support the reforms, Havana plans a significant reduction of the central bureaucracy, cutting the number of government ministries to 20 from 27 through mergers and eliminations.

Díaz-Canel said Cuba must move toward “new models and new actors” capable of making use of existing infrastructure, acknowledging that sectors such as tourism have been hurt by U.S. sanctions.

“We cannot focus only on the large international hotel chains when many of them, because of pressure from the United States government, have left the country,” he said. “We are developing real estate and tourism projects with new models and other actors that have not traditionally participated in these sectors.”

On energy policy, Díaz-Canel said Cuba would continue shifting toward solar power and renewable energy sources.

“We are going to eliminate, as much as possible, the restrictions that exist on vehicle imports,” he said. “We will continue prioritizing, through tariffs and pricing policies, the importation of electric vehicles powered by solar energy.”

Recent U.S. measures against Cuba have significantly tightened the decades-old embargo through Executive Order 14404 and additional restrictions targeting the energy sector, including CUPET. The sanctions also affect senior government officials, their relatives and military-linked entities.

Washington says the measures are intended to cut off revenue to the Cuban government, encourage political change and punish human rights abuses.

Cuban authorities argue that the restrictions have worsened an already severe economic crisis marked by chronic shortages and power outages that have lasted more than 48 hours in some parts of the island.

International organizations, including the United Nations, have warned about the humanitarian impact on the civilian population.

June 11 (Asia Today) — China’s renminbi, also known as the yuan, has strengthened sharply in recent months as Beijing seeks to elevate the currency’s global standing, but its rapid gains may create new risks for the Chinese economy.

The yuan recently reached its strongest level in three years and three months, prompting some Chinese media to describe the move as an advance by the currency. The trend is expected to continue for the time being.

According to recent reports by Chinese media, including National Business Daily, the yuan was poorly regarded until the end of the last century. Although the official exchange rate hovered around 8.2 yuan per dollar, the currency often traded at about 9 yuan per dollar on black markets in Beijing and other cities.

The yuan’s status began to change after China’s economy expanded rapidly in the early 2000s. After the 2008 global financial crisis weakened confidence in the U.S. economy, the yuan strengthened past 8 per dollar, then 7 per dollar, at times trading in the 6-yuan range.

The currency weakened again early last year and stayed around the 7-yuan level for about a year. Some analysts warned it could fall as low as 7.5 yuan per dollar.

Those concerns proved temporary. The yuan rebounded early this year and returned to the 6-yuan range. It strengthened further and traded around 6.77 yuan per dollar Wednesday, its highest level since Feb. 15, 2023, when it was at 6.8183 yuan per dollar.

Markets widely expect the yuan could strengthen further to around 6.5 per dollar. The currency was worth about 90 won at the end of the last century, but it now trades at about 225 won.

Several factors are driving the yuan’s gains. The prolonged war in the Middle East has increased demand for the yuan alongside the dollar, while China’s large trade surplus, supported by strong exports, has also lifted the currency.

A stronger yuan, however, is not necessarily good for China. It could become a burden for export-dependent companies by making Chinese goods more expensive overseas. Cheaper import prices could also deepen China’s chronic deflationary pressure, which remains a major concern for the economy.

Even so, Chinese economic authorities are not expected to intervene aggressively to slow the yuan’s rise.

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, said during an economic news conference at the National People’s Congress in Beijing on March 6 that the yuan’s recent movement against the dollar reflected China’s stable economic recovery, weakness in the dollar index and a seasonal increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement.

Pan also said China did not need a yuan depreciation, signaling that authorities were comfortable with the currency’s strength.

The yuan’s transformation from a weak and undervalued currency into one with rising global influence has become increasingly difficult to ignore. But its continued ascent could create new pressure on China’s exporters and complicate Beijing’s fight against deflation.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260611010003994

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