deal

Reuters

Trump’s tariff tactics

TikTok deal done?

Oct. 26 (UPI) — President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could “consummate” the TikTok deal announced last month this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

“We reached a final deal on TikTok. We reached one in Madrid, and I believe that as of today, all the details are ironed out, and that will be for the two leaders to consummate that transaction on Thursday in Korea,” Bessent said in an interview Sunday morning on “Face the Nation.”

Trump had signed an executive order in late September to complete a deal estimated at $14 billion that would create a U.S. entity to control TikTok, with American investors owning 80% of the company and its parent company ByteDance maintaining less than 20%.

It would satisfy an April 2024 law passed by Congress in the Biden administration requiring ByteDance to divest from the company or the platform would be banned for some 170 million U.S. users.

The president said at the time that the deal was approved by Xi in a phone conversation.

Bessent did not provide new details of the deal in the interview Sunday.

“My remit was to get the Chinese to agree to approve the transaction, and I believe we successfully accomplished that over the past two days,” Bessent said.

The White House said at the time the executive order was signed that the federal government would not play a role in selecting members for TikTok’s board. And when asked if the platform would begin to favor “MAGA” content, Trump responded it will be fair.

“If I could make it 100% MAGA I would but it’s not going to work out that way unfortunately,” Trump said. “Everyone is going to be treated fairly. Every group, every philosophy will be treated fairly.”

A number of academic studies have shown that TikTok already “tends to lean toward right-wing content, with right-wing praise being a significant predictor of user engagement.”

Top trade negotiators for the U.S. and China said they came to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the table for Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a deal and ease trade tensions that have rattled global markets.

After two days of talks in Malaysia wrapped up Sunday, a Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking later in an interview with CBS News, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off the table” and he expected Beijing to make “substantial” soybean purchases as well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare-earth controls. The U.S. wouldn’t change its export controls directed at China, he added.

“So I would expect that the threat of the 100% has gone away, as has the threat of the immediate imposition of the Chinese initiating a worldwide export control regime,” Bessent said. He separately told ABC News he believed China would delay its rare-earth restrictions “for a year while they reexamine it.”

Bessent telegraphed a wide-ranging agreement between Trump and Xi that would extend a tariff truce, resolve differences over the sale of TikTok and keep up the flow of rare-earth magnets necessary for the production of advanced products from semiconductors to jet engines. The two leaders are also planning to discuss a global peace plan, he said, after Trump said publicly he hoped to enlist Xi’s help in ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The encouraging signals from both sides of the negotiations were a marked contrast from recent weeks, when Beijing’s announcement of new export restrictions and Trump’s reciprocal threat of staggering new tariffs threatened to plunge the world’s two largest economies back into an all-out trade war.

Staving off China’s rare-earth restrictions is “one of the major objectives of these talks, and I think we’re progressing toward that goal very well,” U.S .Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Trump predicted a “good deal with China” as he spoke with reporters on the sidelines of the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Kuala Lumpur, the Malaysian capital, saying he expected high-level follow-up meetings in China and the U.S.

“They want to make a deal, and we want to make a deal,” Trump said.

Still, markets will be closely watching the details of the ultimate agreement, after nearly a year of head-spinning changes to trade and tariff policies between Washington and Beijing.

Chinese trade envoy Li Chenggang said he believes that the sides had reached consensus on fentanyl — suggesting the U.S. might lift or reduce a 20% tariff it had imposed to pressure Beijing to halt the flow of precursor chemicals used to make the deadly drug. He said the nations would also address actions the Trump administration took to impose port service fees on Chinese vessels, which prompted Beijing to put retaliatory levies on U.S.-owned, -operated, -built or -flagged vessels.

Li, whom Bessent called “unhinged” just days ago, described the talks as intense and the U.S. position as tough, but hailed the signs of progress. Both sides will now brief their leaders ahead of a planned summit between Trump and Xi on Thursday.

“The current turbulences and twists and turns are ones that we do not wish to see,” Li told reporters, adding that a stable China-U.S. trade and economic relationship is good for both countries and the rest of the world.

The reopening of soybean purchases, if realized, could provide a significant political win for Trump.

China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm goods in March, effectively slamming the door shut on American soybeans before the harvest even began. The Asian nation last year purchased $13 billion in U.S. beans — more than 20% of the entire crop — for animal feed and cooking oil, and the freeze has rocked rural farmers who represent a key political base for the president.

Perhaps more important is resolving the the U.S.’ rare-earths tussle with China, which fought back against Trump’s trade offensive earlier this year by cutting off supplies of the materials. Although flows were restored in a truce that saw tariffs lowered from levels exceeding 100%, China this month broadened export curbs on the materials after the U.S. expanded restrictions on Chinese companies.

The negotiations took place at the skyscraper Merdeka 118 as Trump met with Southeast Asian leaders at a nearby convention center, where he discussed a series of other framework trade agreements, seeking to diversify U.S. trade away from China.

The Chinese delegation was led by He, China’s top economic official, and included Vice Finance Minister Liao Min. Greer, the U.S. trade representative, was also part of the talks.

Trump’s meeting with Xi this week will be their first face-to-face sit-down since his return to the White House. The U.S. leader has said direct talks are the best way to resolve issues including tariffs, export curbs, agricultural purchases, fentanyl trafficking and geopolitical tinderboxes such as Taiwan and the war in Ukraine.

“We’ll be talking about a lot of things,” he said. “I think we have a really good chance of making a very comprehensive deal.”

Flatly and Xiao write for Bloomberg. Bloomberg writers Sam Kim and Tony Czuczka contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — Twenty-two days into the government shutdown, California Rep. Kevin Kiley spent an hour of his morning in Washington guiding a group of middle school students from Grass Valley through the empty corridors of the U.S. Capitol.

Normally, one of his staff members would have led the tour. But the Capitol is closed to all tours during the shutdown, unless the elected member is present. So the schoolchildren from Lyman Gilmore Middle School ended up with Kiley, a Republican from Rocklin, as their personal tour guide.

“I would have visited with these kids anyway,” Kiley said in his office after the event. “But I actually got to go on the whole tour of the Capitol with them as well.”

Kiley’s impromptu tour is an example of how members of California’s congressional delegation are improvising their routines as the shutdown drags on and most of Washington remains at a standstill.

Some are in Washington in case negotiations resume, others are back at home in their districts meeting with federal workers who are furloughed or working without pay, giving interviews or visiting community health centers that rely on tax credits central to the budget negotiations. One member attended the groundbreaking of a flood control project in their district. Others are traveling back and forth.

“I’ve had to fly back to Washington for caucus meetings, while the opposition, the Republicans, don’t even convene and meet,” Rep. Maxine Waters, a longtime Los Angeles Democrat, said in an interview. “We will meet anytime, anyplace, anywhere, with [House Speaker Mike] Johnson, with the president, with the Senate, to do everything that we can to open up the government. We are absolutely unified on that.”

The shutdown is being felt across California, which has the most federal workers outside the District of Columbia. Food assistance benefits for millions of low-income Californians could soon be delayed. And millions of Californians could see their healthcare premiums rise sharply if Affordable Care Act subsidies are allowed to expire.

For the California delegation, the fallout at home has become impossible to ignore. Yet the shutdown is in its fourth week with no end in sight.

In the House, Johnson has refused to call members back into session and prevented them from doing legislative work. Many California lawmakers — including Kiley, one of the few GOP lawmakers to openly criticize him — have been dismayed by the deadlock.

“I have certainly emphasized the point that the House needs to be in session, and that canceling a month’s worth of session is not a good thing for the House or the country,” Kiley said, noting that he had privately met with Johnson.

Kiley, who represented parts of the Sacramento suburbs and Lake Tahoe, is facing political uncertainty as California voters weigh whether to approve Proposition 50 on Nov. 4. The measure would redraw the state’s congressional districts to better favor Democrats, leaving Kiley at risk, even though the Republican says he believes he could still win if his right-leaning district is redrawn.

The Senate has been more active, holding a series of votes on the floor and congressional hearings with Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. The chamber, however, has been unable to reach a deal to reopen the government. On Thursday, the 23rd day of the shutdown, the Senate failed to advance competing measures that would have paid federal employees who have been working without compensation.

The Republicans’ plan would have paid active-duty members of the military and some federal workers during the shutdown. Democrats backed a bill that would have paid all federal workers and barred the Trump administration from laying off any more federal employees.

“California has one of the largest federal workforces in the country, and no federal worker or service member should miss their paychecks because Donald Trump and Republicans refused to come to the table to protect Americans’ health care,” Sen. Alex Padilla said in a statement.

Working conditions get harder

The strain on federal employees — including those who work for California’s 54 delegation members — are starting to become more apparent.

Dozens of them have been working full time without pay. Their jobs include answering phone calls and requests from constituents, setting the schedules for elected officials, writing policy memos and handling messaging for their offices.

House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks about the shutdown at a news conference Thursday with other Republican House members.

(Eric Lee / Getty Images)

At the end of October, House staffers — who are paid on a monthly basis — are expected to miss their first paycheck.

Some have been quietly told to consider borrowing money from the U.S. Senate Federal Credit Union, which is offering a “government shutdown relief loan program” that includes a no-interest loan of up to $5,000 to be repaid in full after 90 days.

The mundane has also been disrupted. Some of the cafeterias and coffee carts that are usually open to staffers are closed. The lines to enter office buildings are long because fewer entrances are open.

The hallways leading to the offices of California’s elected officials are quiet, except for the faint sound of occasional elevator dings. Many of their doors are adorned with signs that show who they blame for the government shutdown.

“Trump and Republicans shut down the government,” reads a sign posted on the door that leads into Rep. Norma Torres’ (D-Pomona) office. “Our office is OPEN — WORKING for the American people.”

Rep. Ted Lieu, a Democrat from Torrance, posted a similar sign outside his office.

A sign is posted outside of the office of Rep. Ted Lieu, a California Democrat, in Washington on Wednesday.

(Ana Ceballos / Los Angeles Times)

Rep. Vince Fong, a Republican who represents the Central Valley, has been traveling between Washington and his district. Two weeks into the shutdown, he met with veterans from the Central Valley Honor Flight and Kern County Honor Flight to make sure that their planned tour of the Capitol was not disrupted by the shutdown. Like Kiley’s tour with the schoolchildren, an elected member needed to be present for the tour to go on.

“His presence ensured the tour could continue as planned,” Fong’s office said.

During the tour, veterans were able to see Johnson as well, his office said.

Shutdown highlights deep divisions

California’s congressional delegation mirrors the broader stalemate in Washington, where entrenched positions have kept both parties at a negotiation impasse.

Democrats are steadfast in their position that they will not agree to a deal unless Republicans extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits expiring at the end of the year, while Republicans are accusing Democrats of failing to reopen the government for political gain.

Kiley is one of the few Republicans who has called on Johnson to negotiate with Democrats on healthcare. Kiley said he thinks there is a “a lot of room to negotiate” because there is concern on both sides of the aisle if the tax credits expire.

“If people see a massive increase in their premiums … that’s not a good thing,” he said. “Especially in California, where the cost of living is already so high, and you’re suddenly having to pay a lot more for healthcare.”

Rep. Robert Garcia, the chair of the House Democratic Caucus, in a press event Wednesday with five other California Democrats talked about the need to fight for the healthcare credits.

Garcia, of Long Beach, said he recently visited a healthcare center in San Bernardino County that serves seniors with disabilities. He said the cuts would be “devastating” and would prompt the center to close.

“That’s why we are doing everything in our power to negotiate a deal that reopens the federal government and saves healthcare,” he said.

As the shutdown continues, many Democrats are digging their heels on the issue.

At an Oct. 3 event outside of Hollywood Presbyterian Medical Center, for instance, Rep. Laura Friedman held a news conference with nurses and hospital staff and said she would not vote for a bill to reopen the government unless there is a deal on healthcare.

Last week, the Glendale Democrat said her position hasn’t changed.

“I will not support a shutdown deal that strips healthcare from tens of thousands of my constituents,” she said.

The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia have expanded a ceasefire deal in the presence of US President Donald Trump, who is in Malaysia for the ASEAN summit. In July, the president helped bring an end to their five-day border conflict.

The probe comes as the US government seeks additional leverage against Beijing amid escalating trade tensions.

The United States has launched an investigation into whether China is out of compliance with a 2020 trade deal they struck together, as trade tensions ratchet up between the world’s two largest economies.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the investigation on Friday, as President Donald Trump travels to Asia to meet with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. China denies that it has failed to abide by the deal.

“China has scrupulously fulfilled its obligations in the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement,” a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington said in a social media post.

The probe into unfair trade practices could grant President Trump greater authority to impose more tariffs on China, which he has hit with massive trade duties during his second term in office.

“The administration seems to be looking for new sources of leverage to use against Beijing, while adding another pressure point to get China to buy more US soybeans as well as other goods,” Wendy Cutler, a former US trade negotiator who is now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told The Associated Press news agency.

The “Phase One” deal came at the end of Trump’s first term in office in 2020, when the US imposed a series of tariffs on China in the name of bringing greater “balance” to their commercial exchange.

In that agreement, Beijing agreed to buy more US agricultural and manufacturing goods.

A Federal Register notice (PDF) from the Office of the US Trade Representative alleges that China has not followed up on that promise or others related to intellectual property protections, forced technology transfers or financial services.

September, for instance, marked the first month since 2018 that China imported no soya beans from US farmers.

“The initiation of this investigation underscores the Trump Administration’s resolve to hold China to its Phase One Agreement commitments, protect American farmers, ranchers, workers, and innovators, and establish a more reciprocal trade relationship with China for the benefit of the American people,” Greer said in a statement.

A new round of US-China trade talks is set to take place on Saturday, and discussions will focus on China’s restrictions on the export of rare earth metals, essential for many US tech products.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated the importance of the fragile Gaza ceasefire agreement while meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in West Jerusalem Thursday.

EXPLAINER

Satellite imagery shows Israel holds about 40 active military positions beyond the yellow line.

Satellite imagery analysis by Al Jazeera’s fact-checking agency Sanad shows that the Israeli army holds about 40 active military positions in the part of the Gaza Strip outside the yellow line, the invisible boundary established under the first phase of the ceasefire to which its troops had to move, according to the deal.

The images also show that Israel is upgrading several of these facilities, which help it maintain its occupation of 58 percent of Gaza even after the pullback by troops to the yellow line.

While the majority of sites are concentrated in southern Gaza, every governorate hosts at least one military position. Some sites are built on bases established during the war, while others are newly constructed. The total number of sites in each governorate is:

• North Gaza: 9
• Gaza City: 6
• Deir el-Balah: 1
• Khan Younis: 11
• Rafah: 13

One of the most prominent military points in Gaza City is located on top of al-Muntar Hill in the Shujayea neighbourhood of Gaza City. A comparison of images between September 21 and October 14 shows the base being paved and asphalted.

Where is the invisible yellow line?

Since the ceasefire took effect about two weeks ago, nearly 100 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks across the Strip, with some attacks occurring near the yellow line.

On October 18, Israeli forces killed 11 members of the Abu Shaaban family in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City, according to Gaza’s Civil Defence. Seven children and three women were among those killed when the Israeli military fired on the vehicle as the family attempted to return home to inspect it.

The Israeli military said soldiers had fired at a “suspicious vehicle” that had crossed the so-called yellow line. With no physical markers for the line, however, many Palestinians cannot determine the location of this invisible boundary. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has since said the army will install visual signs to indicate the line’s location.

In the first ceasefire phase, Israel retains control of more than half of the Gaza Strip, with areas beyond the yellow line still under its military presence. This has blocked residents of Beit Lahiya, Beit Hanoon, the neighbourhoods of Shujayea, Tuffah, Zeitoun, most of Khan Younis, and all of Rafah City from returning home.

What are the next phases of Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan?

According to the 20-point plan announced by United States President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on September 29 – developed without any Palestinian input – Israel is to withdraw its forces in three phases, as shown on an accompanying crude map, with each phase marked in a different colour:

• Initial withdrawal (yellow line): In the first phase, Israeli forces pulled back to the line designated in yellow on the map. Hamas has released all living Israeli captives that were in Gaza, and most of the dead bodies of captives who passed away in the enclave.
• Second withdrawal (red line): During the second phase, an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) will be mobilised to oversee security and support Palestinian policing, while Israeli forces are to retreat further to the line marked in red, reducing their direct presence in Gaza.
• Third withdrawal (security buffer zone): In the final phase, Israeli forces are to pull back to a designated “security buffer zone”, leaving a limited portion of Gaza under Israeli military control, while an international administrative body supervises governance and a transitional period.

Even after the third withdrawal phase, Palestinians will be confined to an area which is smaller than before the war, continuing a pattern of Israel’s control over Gaza and its people.

Many questions remain about how the plan will be implemented, the exact boundaries of Palestinian territory, the timing and scope of Israeli withdrawals, the role of the ISF, and the long-term implications for Palestinians across Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

The plan is also silent on whether Israel gets to continue its aerial and sea blockade of Gaza, which has been in place for the past 18 years.

Israel and Hamas have exchanged the remains of more captives, but the Palestinian group says Israel is failing to uphold the terms of the Gaza ceasefire agreement by refusing to reopen the crucial Rafah border crossing with Egypt.

The bodies of two more Israeli captives, one soldier and one civilian, were returned to Israel late on Tuesday, and identified early on Wednesday as those of Aryeh Zalmanovich, 85, and army Master Sergeant Tamir Adar, 38.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) had earlier received the bodies in Gaza, in a handover organised by the Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas.

The Israeli military said that Zalmanovich died in captivity in Gaza on November 17, 2023, and that Adar was killed in fighting in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and his body was taken back to the Palestinian territory.

Hamas has now handed over the bodies of 15 Israeli captives as part of the ceasefire agreement with Israel.

An estimated 13 more sets of remains are expected to be returned to Israel, although Hamas has said the widespread devastation in the Palestinian territory and the Israeli military’s continuing control of certain parts of Gaza have slowed the recovery of the bodies.

The Palestinian group also released 20 living captives in one day at the start of the ceasefire.

Earlier on Tuesday, the bodies of 15 Palestinians killed in Israeli detention were returned to Gaza, where they were taken to the Nasser Medical Complex for identification, according to a medical source.

Under the ceasefire agreement, Israel released some 2,000 living Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons, and has committed to releasing the remains of 360 more deceased Palestinians.

A forensics team that received the bodies of some 45 Palestinians returned by Israel last week said that some arrived still shackled and bearing signs of physical abuse and possible execution.

Ubai Al-Aboudi, the executive director of the Bisan Center for Research and Development, said that Palestinians imprisoned by Israel should also be considered to be “hostages”.

“This entire system dehumanises Palestinians,” Al-Aboudi told Al Jazeera from Ramallah, adding, “when we talk about Palestinian prisoners, we are actually talking about hostages”.

Al-Aboudi noted that about 20 percent of the Palestinian population has been arrested or detained by Israel over the decades, and that the situation in Israeli prisons has deteriorated dramatically since the war on Gaza began in October 2023.

“Most of them are held without any due process, without being charged, and just based on military orders by a foreign military occupation,” he said.

Rafah crossing still closed

A delegation of Hamas officials, attending talks with Turkish officials in Qatar on Tuesday, said that the Palestinian group remains committed to the ceasefire deal despite Israel’s “repeated violations”.

Israel is delaying the implementation of the ceasefire by failing to open the Rafah crossing “for the travel of sick and injured people, and its prevention of the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza”, the Hamas officials said in a statement.

Mujahid Muhammad Darwish, head of the Hamas delegation, also highlighted “the inalienable rights of our people to self-determination and their right to an independent state with Jerusalem as its capital”.

Turkiye was among the signatories of US President Donald Trump’s document on the Gaza ceasefire deal earlier this month in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh.

The Rafah crossing has remained closed since May 7, 2024, when it was seized by Israeli forces as they invaded the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip’s south, where close to one million people were sheltering at the time.

The United Nations has described the crossing, which connects the Palestinian territory to Egypt, as one of two “arteries” for humanitarian access.

The UN’s highest court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), ordered Israel to reopen the Rafah crossing on May 24, 2024, following an emergency submission from South Africa, but the crossing has remained closed, with only limited access via the adjacent Karem Abu Salem crossing.

Residents of Rafah were only able to return to the destroyed city after a temporary ceasefire began on January 19, 2025, which also saw the Rafah crossing temporarily reopen to allow medical evacuations in February, before Israel issued new forced evacuation orders for Rafah at the end of March.

The crossing has remained closed for humanitarian aid access since May 2024.

The recent agreement between the United States and Australia to invest $3 billion in critical minerals and rare earths projects represents a significant step in the Western effort to reduce dependency on China for strategically vital resources.
While the deal has been heralded by Washington as a turning point in global supply diversification, a closer examination suggests that China’s entrenched dominance in rare earth mining, refining, and magnet manufacturing will remain largely unchallenged in the foreseeable future.

This analysis situates the agreement within the broader geopolitical and economic context of resource security, outlines its potential and limitations, and assesses its implications for the evolving balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

Rare Earths and Strategic Dependence

Rare earth elements (REEs) are indispensable for modern technology spanning clean energy, defence systems, electric vehicles, and semiconductors. Despite their name, REEs are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust; their scarcity lies in the technically complex, costly, and environmentally damaging refining process.

Over the past three decades, China has systematically consolidated control over this value chain, developing low-cost refining and magnet production capabilities that now underpin 90% of global processing capacity, 69% of mining, and 98% of magnet manufacturing (Goldman Sachs, 2024).

This dominance has translated into a form of strategic leverage. Beijing has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to weaponize resource supply chains, most recently through export curbs on gallium, graphite, and rare earth magnets, heightening Western concerns about supply security and industrial resilience.

The United States and its allies, including Japan, Australia, and the European Union, have consequently prioritized critical mineral diversification as a matter of both economic sovereignty and national security.

Key Issues:

Technological Dependence:
Western economies lack refining and magnet manufacturing infrastructure comparable to China’s mature ecosystem, which benefits from decades of state investment and technological standardization.

Environmental and Regulatory Constraints:
High environmental standards, community opposition, and lengthy approval timelines in the U.S. and Australia increase project costs and delay production, deterring private investment.

Market Distortion by State Subsidies:
Chinese producers benefit from state-backed financing, subsidized energy, and vertically integrated industrial networks that suppress global prices, making it difficult for Western firms to compete without government intervention.

Investor and Consumer Behavior:
Global manufacturers continue to prioritize low-cost Chinese supply, perpetuating dependency despite policy rhetoric about diversification.

Geopolitical Fragmentation:
Efforts to “de-risk” supply chains are hindered by divergent national strategies among Western allies, with varying levels of commitment to resource security versus environmental and economic priorities.

The U.S.-Australia Critical Minerals Pact

On October 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a joint U.S.-Australia agreement committing $3 billion to the exploration, mining, and processing of critical minerals.
The pact includes provisions for a price floor a mechanism designed to ensure profitability for Western miners operating in markets distorted by Chinese state subsidies and environmental cost advantages.

According to the White House, U.S. investments will “unlock deposits worth over $53 billion” in Australian reserves. The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) has issued seven Letters of Interest totaling $2.2 billion to Australian mining firms, including Arafura Rare Earths, developer of the Nolans project in Western Australia.

While these measures indicate a serious financial commitment, they also highlight the industrial asymmetry between emerging Western projects and China’s mature, vertically integrated supply chains.

Economic Feasibility and Industry Timelines

Industry experts have expressed caution regarding the feasibility of rapid supply diversification.
Barrenjoey analyst Dan Morgan noted that the “time frame for various projects to be ready even by 2027 would be heroic,” reflecting the inherent capital intensity and regulatory delays in rare earth development.

Similarly, Dylan Kelly of Terra Capital observed that the current pricing of NdPr oxide the most traded rare earth compound “does not reflect a market dynamic that can sustain a significant fall in prices,” implying that a price floor mechanism may be essential for commercial viability.

Such perspectives underline the structural constraint that industrial policy cannot compress geological and technological timelines. New rare earth projects require multi-year investments in exploration, environmental clearance, and processing technology transfer.

Strategic and Geopolitical Dimensions

The U.S.-Australia pact is emblematic of a broader strategic realignment in the Indo-Pacific, wherein critical minerals are increasingly framed not merely as commodities but as strategic enablers of power projection.
For Washington, the deal aligns with its economic security agenda to “de-risk” supply chains and reduce China’s capacity to use resource dependencies as geopolitical tools.

For Canberra, it represents both an economic opportunity and a strategic burden. Australia possesses abundant mineral reserves but faces pressure to align its export policies with U.S. strategic interests, potentially straining its trade relations with China still its largest trading partner.

At a deeper level, the agreement signals the emergence of a critical minerals bloc, mirroring patterns seen in energy geopolitics. Yet, the absence of comparable refining infrastructure, skilled labor pools, and environmental cost advantages continues to limit Western competitiveness.

Market Reactions and Corporate Beneficiaries

The deal has already produced identifiable commercial winners.
Arafura Rare Earths and Syrah Resources have reported increased investor interest following the announcement, reflecting market confidence in Western government-backed financing.
Arafura’s CFO, Peter Sherrington, emphasized that the U.S.-Australia initiative “de-risks raising money from an equity perspective,” while its CEO projected full project funding by early 2026.

However, as Syrah CEO Shaun Verner noted, unless global consumers “cure their addiction to lowest-cost supply from China,” even well-financed Western projects will struggle to secure stable demand. This underscores a behavioral dimension of market dependency, wherein private-sector procurement patterns perpetuate Chinese dominance despite political rhetoric of diversification.

Implications for Global Resource Governance

In the short term, the U.S.-Australia agreement is unlikely to materially alter the global rare earth landscape.
China’s entrenched advantages in scale, technology, and regulatory flexibility will ensure continued dominance through the decade.
Nevertheless, the pact marks an important symbolic and structural step toward building alternative supply chains, particularly if accompanied by coordinated policies on processing technology, environmental standards, and market access.

In the medium to long term, such agreements could catalyze a Western-led industrial ecosystem, reducing strategic vulnerability and fostering innovation in cleaner extraction methods. However, success will depend on sustained political will, technological breakthroughs, and a willingness to absorb short-term economic inefficiencies for long-term security gains.

Analysis: Strategic Patience Over Political Rhetoric

The U.S.-Australia rare earths pact represents a strategically coherent but operationally constrained response to China’s resource hegemony. It reflects the increasing securitization of economic policy in an era of great-power competition.

Yet, as this analysis indicates, the pathway to rare earth independence will be long, capital-intensive, and geopolitically fraught.
While the agreement sends a strong signal of Western resolve, the transformation of intent into industrial capability will take years, not electoral cycles.

Until then, China’s dominance will persist not simply because of its mineral reserves, but due to its unparalleled integration of industrial policy, technological expertise, and geopolitical strategy.

With information from Reuters.

LeBron James no longer has to worry about having to appear in small claims court over the hundreds of dollars a Lakers fan spent on tickets while under the impression that the superstar player was retiring at the end of the season.

Norwalk resident Andrew Garcia filed Monday with Los Angeles County Superior Court to dismiss without prejudice a claim he had filed earlier this month seeking to recoup his money after a big announcement teased by James on social media ended up having nothing to do with his NBA career, now going into its 23rd season, coming to an end.

Garcia said Monday he decided to drop the case after he accepted an offer from the PrizePicks fantasy sports app. The company has deposited promo funds in the amount of $865.66 — the full amount Garcia spent on two tickets to the Lakers’ game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 31, 2026 — into Garcia’s PrizePicks account, according to documentation viewed by The Times.

Garcia said will be able to cash out any winnings he receives off those transactions. In addition, he said, PrizePicks will be giving him tickets to a Lakers game of his choice and some other merchandise.

“I didn’t have to dismiss the case” in order to receive the deal from PrizePicks, Garcia said, “but I chose to, because I was like, you know, you guys are fully compensating me for my loss, and then some. There’s no reason for me to further pursue this, because then it would look like I’m double-dipping, you know?”

PrizePicks vice president of communications Elisa Richardson confirmed the deal in an email to The Times.

“We reached out to Andrew after seeing the news and finding out he was a PrizePicks player,” Richardson wrote. “We’re always looking for ways to surprise and delight our players.”

On Oct. 6, James posted on social media that he would announce “the decision of all decisions” the next day. The NBA’s all-time leading scorer also included a video clip teasing “The Second Decision,” a reference to 2010’s “The Decision,” in which James famously announced his intention to play for the Miami Heat.

Garcia wasn’t the only person who thought a retirement announcement was imminent — and he also wasn’t the only one who wanted to be sure to see James on his farewell tour. According to Victory Live, which analyzes verified ticket resale data across the secondary market, ticket sales for Lakers games jumped 25 times higher after James’ teaser post and the average price for those tickets increased from $280 to $399.

Ticket sales and prices returned to normal soon after it was revealed that “The Second Decision” was nothing more than a Hennessy ad. In his lawsuit, Garcia claimed James owed him the amount paid for the tickets because of “fraud, deception, misrepresentation, and any and all basis of legal recovery.”

Oct. 20 (UPI) — Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday signed a “framework” of an $8.5 billion deal for projects involving critical minerals and rare earth elements during a meeting at the White House.

The two leaders, along with their aides, met for lunch in the Cabinet Room, where they also discussed military and other trade issuses.

Because of restrictions on Chinese exportrs to the United States, this gives an opportunity for Australia, which has the fourth-largest reserves of the minerals and elements. They are found in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and South Australia.

Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 elements crucial for electronics, including for the defense industry. Though they are called rare, many aren’t scare, including cerium, used for automotive catalytic converters and petroleum refining, which is more common than copper.

The central bank said deal was part of a comprehensive strategy to help it respond to forex and capital markets volatility.

The Central Bank of the Argentinian Republic (BCRA) said it has signed a $20bn exchange rate stabilisation agreement with the United States Treasury Department, six days ahead of a key midterm election.

The central bank’s statement on Monday said the agreement sets forth terms for bilateral currency swap operations between the US and Argentina, but it provided no technical details.

The central bank said: “Such operations will allow the BCRA to expand its set of monetary and exchange rate policy instruments, including the liquidity of its international reserves”.

The Argentinian peso closed at a record low, down 1.7 percent on the day to end at 1,475 per dollar.

The BCRA said the pact was part of a comprehensive strategy to enhance its ability to respond to foreign exchange and capital markets volatility.

The US Treasury did not immediately respond to a request for details on the new swap line and has not issued its own statement about the arrangement.

US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said last week that the arrangement would be backed by International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights held in the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund that will be converted to dollars.

Bessent has said that the US would not put additional conditions on Argentina beyond President Javier Milei’s government continuing to pursue its fiscal austerity and economic reform programmes to foster more private-sector growth.

He has announced several US purchases of pesos in recent weeks, but has declined to disclose details.

Midterm vote

Argentinian Minister of Economy Luis Caputo said last week that he hoped the swap deal framework would be finalised before the October 26 midterm parliamentary vote, in which Milei’s party will seek to grow its minority presence in the legislature.

Milei, who has sought to solve Argentina’s economic woes through fiscal spending cuts and dramatically shrinking the size of government, has been handed a string of recent political defeats.

US President Donald Trump said last week that the US would not “waste our time” with Argentina if Milei’s party loses in the midterm vote. The comment briefly shocked local markets until Bessent clarified that continued US support depended on “good policies”, not necessarily the vote result.

He added that a positive result for Milei’s party would help block any policy repeal efforts.

WASHINGTON — President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical-minerals deal at the White House on Monday as the U.S. eyes the continent’s rich rare-earth resources at a time when China is imposing tougher rules on exporting its own critical minerals.

The two leaders described the agreement as an $8.5 billion deal between the allies. Trump said it had been negotiated over several months.

“Today’s agreement on critical minerals and rare earths is just taking” the U.S. and Australia’s relationship “to the next level,” Albanese added.

This month, Beijing announced that it will require foreign companies to get approval from the Chinese government to export magnets containing even trace amounts of rare-earth materials that originated from China or were produced with Chinese technology. Trump’s Republican administration says this gives China broad power over the global economy by controlling the tech supply chain.

“Australia is really, really going to be helpful in the effort to take the global economy and make it less risky, less exposed to the kind of rare-earth extortion that we’re seeing from the Chinese,” Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, told reporters Monday morning before Trump’s meeting with Albanese.

Hassett noted that Australia has one of the best mining economies in the world, while praising its refiners and its abundance of rare-earth resources. Among the Australian officials accompanying Albanese are ministers overseeing resources and industry and science, and the continent has dozens of critical minerals sought by the U.S.

The prime minister’s visit comes just before Trump is planning to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.

The prime minister said ahead of his visit that the two leaders will have a chance to deepen their countries’ ties on trade and defense. Another expected topic of discussion is AUKUS, a security pact with Australia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom that was signed during President Biden’s administration.

Trump has not indicated publicly whether he would want to keep AUKUS intact, and the Pentagon is reviewing the agreement.

“Australia and the United States have stood shoulder-to-shoulder in every major conflict for over a century,” Albanese said before the meeting. “I look forward to a positive and constructive meeting with President Trump at the White House.”

The center-left Albanese was reelected in May and suggested shortly after his win that his party increased its majority by not modeling itself on Trumpism.

“Australians have chosen to face global challenges the Australian way, looking after each other while building for the future,” Albanese told supporters during his victory speech.

Kim and Madhani write for the Associated Press.

Israel says it’s returned to the Gaza ceasefire – after launching a wave of air strikes on Sunday, killing more than 40 Palestinians.

It blamed Hamas for the breach, saying its fighters were responsible for an attack that killed two Israeli soldiers.

Hamas denies breaking the ceasefire.

The violence was a reminder for Palestinians that Israel is willing to suspend peace, and unleash its firepower, whenever it sees fit.

The United States insists the truce will hold – and has sent Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Presidential Advisor Jared Kushner to Israel.

But the renewed assault has cast doubt on whether the ceasefire will advance to the second phase – which is meant to see Hamas disarm and Israel withdraw from Gaza.

Presenter: Bernard Smith

Guests:
Alon Pinkas – Former Israeli ambassador and former consul general in New York

Hussein Haridy – Former Egyptian assistant foreign minister

Frank Lowenstein – Former US special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations

Last year, the NBA signed a new 11-year, $77-billion media rights deal that will make the league a lot richer and dramatically alter the tune-in habits of fans when the 2025-26 season tips off this week.

Warner Bros. Discovery’s cable network TNT will no longer carry the league’s games, but its iconic studio show “Inside the NBA” lives on at ESPN.

More games will air exclusively on streaming platforms than ever before as Amazon Prime Video and NBCUniversal’s Peacock have significant packages in the new deal.

Here’s what you need to know before the action begins.

“Roundball Rock” returns

NBC is back in the NBA business after 23 years, carrying up to 100 regular season games on the broadcast network and its Peacock streaming platform. The network will carry a prime time game Tuesdays starting this week and Sundays as of Feb. 1. NBCUniversal’s Telemundo will carry 12 of the Sunday night NBA games in Spanish. Peacock will exclusively stream up to three games nationally Mondays.

NBC is also the new home for the NBA’s All-Star weekend, set for February in Los Angeles.

John Tesh plays “Roundball Rock” in an NBC Sports promo for its NBA coverage.

(NBC Sports)

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said in an interview that the league’s move to NBC is more of a homecoming than a transition.

“A lot of the DNA is still in place,” Silver said. “Many of the producers we worked with 20-plus years ago are still with the organization. In some ways we’re able to pick up where we left off.”

The network is leaning into its heritage as the home of the league from 1990 to 2002, when Michael Jordan led the Chicago Bulls to six championships, galvanizing fan interest to new heights. Even John Tesh’s “Roundball Rock” — the infectious percussive theme song used during the era — is returning.

Jordan has been hired as a special contributor, but the network has played it close to the vest about how the NBA legend will be used.

“You will see him on opening night in some capacity,” NBC Sports President Rick Cordella told The Times.

Western Conference fans should appreciate NBC’s approach to its “Coast 2 Coast Tuesday” telecasts starting Oct. 28. In most weeks, NBC TV stations in the Western and Mountain time zones will get their own games in prime time at 8 p.m., rather than a 5 p.m. start time for an East Coast contest.

Cordella noted that having having separate prime time games in two regions will help boost ratings as more people will be available to watch in those hours. Fans across the country will be able to stream both games on Peacock no matter where they live.

A new home for ‘Inside the NBA’

ESPN retained its package of regular season games, playoffs and the NBA Finals. But the most anticipated element of its coverage this season will be the arrival of “Inside the NBA,” airing before and after selected games on ESPN and ABC.

When TNT lost the rights to the NBA, fans of the unfiltered gabfest with Ernie Johnson, Shaquille O’Neal, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith were despondent over the possibility of its demise after 36 years. ESPN reached an agreement with TNT to continue producing the program in exchange for a package of college football games.

Shaquille O’Neal, Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley on “Inside the NBA.”

(TNT Sports)

Starting with a doubleheader Tuesday, “Inside the NBA” will air for an hour before selected games on ESPN and a half-hour ahead of ABC telecasts.

Postgame editions will be open-ended on ESPN while ABC will run a half-hour and then continue on the ESPN app. The program will air on 20 dates during the regular season and throughout the NBA Playoffs, including the Eastern Conference Finals and the NBA Finals.

Tim Corrigan, senior vice president of sports production for ESPN, said in a recent news conference that nothing will change on the program outside of it being on a new network. Along with the hosts, the graphics, the music and the attitude will remain the same and will still be produced at TNT Sports’ studios in Atlanta with its longtime production team.

“We want them to do their show,” Corrigan said.

All of the games on ESPN and ABC are available on ESPN’s recently launched direct-to-consumer streaming service available to fans who don’t have a pay TV subscription.

NBA comes to Prime Video

Amazon is the new kid on the block, with 67 NBA games exclusively on the Prime Video streaming platform starting with a doubleheader Friday.

The streamer will carry every game in the knockout round of the Emirates NBA Cup, the postseason SoFi Play-In Tournament and first- and second-round playoff games. Prime will also carry two international NBA games this year and handle the conference finals in six of the next 11 seasons.

Prime Video will make on-screen advance stats part of its NBA coverage.

(Prime Video)

Prime developed a number of on-screen features for its “Thursday Night Football” coverage, and viewers can expect the same for the NBA, where fans can access pivotal moments in the game or get a rapid recap if they tune in late.

Fans who subscribe to NBA League Pass, a streaming platform that provides access to out-of-market games, can link the service to Prime Video to watch multiple games at once on the same screen.

Prime Video is also teaming with the online sportsbook app FanDuel, giving bettors the ability to track the progress of their wagers while watching a game. (FanDuel is not available to use in California.)

Callum: This is becoming the worst disgrace in the history of Scottish football. When are the powers that be at Ibrox going to realise that if it is Thelwell and Stewart that continue to be the stumbling block then they have to be removed immediately? Three potential managers have turned us down in a little more than a week. Shocking and embarrassing.

Michael: Thelwell and Stewart want too much of an input into first-team affairs and this is what seems to be the breakdown. Both of them need to go. If Andrew Cavenagh and Paraag Marathe wanted Gerrard and Muscat then the deal should have happened – after all, they are the ‘bosses’.

Isobel: The club knew Muscat’s situation at the outset, so why go ahead at all if they were so desperate to get someone in ASAP? It is utter incompetence and breathtaking arrogance to believe they could get him in earlier given he was on the cusp of a second title. The whole management group including the Americans have dragged a proud club into the gutter in this continuing omnishambles. It is absolutely disgraceful and I actually feel for the players in all this, left leaderless, rudderless and hung out to dry.

Neil: It’s becoming clear that if the new manager wants control of recruitment then Thelwell is going to be the problem. Time for the owners to take control and show they are capable of running the club.

Stuart: I’ve supported this club since my late dad took me to my first game back in the late 1970s, spent thousands travelling across the UK and Europe to watch them and this is quite ‘simply the worst’ I’ve ever seen from top to bottom. Poor boardroom choices, poor management and poor recruitment. Thelwell and Stewart have to go as they’re simply filling their pockets whilst making a complete mockery of what was once a proud club.

Sonny: Sack the board. The Americans have somehow managed to turn the club into a bigger shambles than the previous administration, which I thought was impossible. We’re a laughing stock and there’s hardly an array of great candidates remaining. Embarrassing.

Brian: What a shambles and what an absolute shocker from those in charge – the blame must lie with Stewart and Thewell, who could not even make a double act as a pantomime horse. I am at a complete loss bordering on despair.

Alexander: The main problem appears to be Thelwell and Stewart. If these two are the reason we can’t get a deal finalised then get rid of them. Rangers are too big to be run in such a haphazard way. The supporters aren’t going to take much more of this nonsense, maybe an empty Ibrox and not renewing season tickets will wake the owners up.

Right-wing Japan Innovation Party says it will support the governing LDP, allowing Sanae Takaichi to be voted in as leader.

Hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi appears set to become Japan’s first female premier as the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) prepares to sign a coalition deal.

Hirofumi Yoshimura, coleader of the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, said on Monday that his right-wing party was prepared to back a Takaichi premiership, providing the LDP with the support it needs to remain in power.

The LDP had appeared on the cusp of losing power when Japan’s legislature meets for an extraordinary session to vote for the next prime minister on Tuesday.

“I told Takaichi that we should move forward together,” Yoshimura told reporters in Osaka as he made the 11th-hour announcement. He added that he would meet Takaichi at 6pm local time (09:00 GMT) to sign the agreement.

The deal clears the way for Takaichi to win Tuesday’s vote, which will see her replace incumbent Shigeru Ishiba, who has resigned.

Political turmoil

Takaichi, a 64-year-old China hawk from the right-wing party, became leader of the LDP earlier this month.

Her bid to become Japan’s first female premier was disrupted when the centrist Komeito party ended a 26-year alliance with the LDP.

Coming just days after Takaichi’s election as the LDP leader, the move plunged the country into a political crisis.

The Buddhist-backed Komeito said the LDP had failed to tighten funding rules in the wake of a slush fund scandal. It was also unnerved by Takaichi’s ultraconservative positions, including a history of harsh rhetoric on China, despite Takaichi having toned that down recently.

The deal between the LDP and Ishin would deliver a combined 231 seats in the lower house of parliament, two short of a majority, meaning the new coalition would still need support from other parties to push through legislation.

But should the vote for Ishiba’s replacement go to a second-round run-off, Takaichi would only need support from more MPs than the other candidate.

Muted response from women

Despite Takaichi appearing set to break the glass ceiling to become the first female premier, many Japanese women were not celebrating her rise.

“The prospect of a first female prime minister doesn’t make me happy,” sociologist Chizuko Ueno posted on X, saying her leadership “doesn’t mean Japanese politics becomes kinder to women”.

Chiyako Sato, a political commentator for the Mainichi newspaper, said Takaichi’s policies were “extremely hawkish and I doubt she would consider policies to recognize diversity”.

Oct. 17 (UPI) — The United States delayed the adoption of an international requirement for commercial cargo ships to reduce their greenhouse emissions or be subject to fines that is widely supported globally.

Using threats of sanctions and tariffs, and backed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the Trump administration forced representatives of more than 100 countries to table the International Maritime Organization’s Net-zero Framework, which would have set a mandatory marine fuel standard.

The draft framework, agreed to in April and aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from cargo ships to net-zero by 2050, would have gone into effect in 2027 for all ocean going ships weighing more than 5,000 tons, according to the IMO.

President Donald Trump has referred to nearly all efforts to reduce human impacts on the environment as a “green scam.”

In an Oct. 10 statement meant to put “IMO members on notice,” Trump’s secretaries of state, energy and transportation said that the United States would employ a series of penalties “against nations that sponsor this European-led neocolonial export of global climate regulations.”

“President Trump has made it clear that the United States will not accept any international environmental agreement that unduly or unfairly burdens the United States or harms the interests of the American people,” Secs. Marco Rubio, Chris Wright and Sean Duffy said in the statement.

The new regulation would have gone into effect in 2027 after a standard for ships to reduce their annual gas fuel intensity — the amount of greenhouse gases released for each unit of energy a ship uses — and economic measures and penalties were established at meetings planned for 2026.

The IMO plan was widely supported — Britain, Canada, the European Union, Japan and China were all in favor — and was expected to pass by most of the roughly 100 countries represented at Friday’s meeting.

Although a handful of countries were not in favor of delaying talks about the regulation for a year, the United States persuaded several countries, including China, to join it, Russia and Saudi Arabia to push off negotiations on the deal.

“We are disappointed that member states have not been able to agree [on] a way forward at this meeting,” International Chamber of Shipping secretary-general Thomas Kazakos told reporters.

“Industry needs clarity to be able to make investments,” he said, reiterating the already known overall support the shipping industry reportedly has for the global standard.

As Donald Trump tries to take credit for a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel continues to kill Palestinians. And as both Israeli and Palestinian captives are released, the glaring double standards in coverage lay bare how this genocide was allowed to go on for so long.

Contributors: 
Tahani Mustafa – Visiting Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
Mouin Rabbani – Co-editor, Jadaliyya
Kenneth Roth – Former Executive Director, Human Rights Watch
Oren Ziv – Journalist, +972 Magazine

On our radar

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner, Maria Corina Machado, chose to dedicate her award to Donald Trump. Meenakshi Ravi reports on what motivated the Venezuelan opposition leader to pander to the United States president.

All the president’s women: the rise of the ‘womanosphere’

For years, the right-wing media space has been dominated by men. But the 2024 election shone a light on a rising parallel force within Donald Trump’s MAGA movement: the so-called “womanosphere”. Across YouTube channels, social media and podcasts, conservative women are rebranding right-wing politics for a female audience.

Featuring: 
Annie Kelly – UK Correspondent, QAA Podcast
Nicole Kiprilov – Republican Party strategist
Eviane Leidig – Author, The Women of the Far Right