Climate

For the second week in a row, Hawaii Island, also known as the Big Island, faces threats from an intensifying storm.

Tropical Storm Moke is grinding towards Hawaii, bringing gusts of wind and heavy rain only a week after the islands faced similar conditions from Hurricane Lala.

On Saturday, Hawaii residents prepared for the latest storm, which is expected to pass south of Hawaii Island, the largest island in the Hawaiian archipelago, overnight and into the following morning.

As of 11am Hawaii Standard Time (21:00 GMT), Moke was located about 684 kilometres, or 425 miles, south of Hilo, a city on the eastern coast of Hawaii Island. It was moving west-northwest at 19km/h (12mph).

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the United States reported that the storm’s maximum sustained winds were about 85km/h (50mph).

Moke, like Lala, is forecast to spare the Big Island a potentially disastrous direct hit. But the island is still recovering from Lala, a Category 1 storm that spurred heavy flooding and power outages.

At least one person died in last weekend’s storm.

Lala came close enough to Hawaii Island to dump more than 1,000mm (39 inches) of rain in some locations, causing rivers to burst their banks.

High winds also bent tall palm trees and downed electrical lines, forcing nearly 130,000 utility customers to lose power.

Hawaii Governor Josh Green and other state officials have urged people to prepare for Moke by restocking food, medicine and other daily essentials ahead of the storm’s passage.

“It could certainly have a big impact because we’ve already been hit hard,” Green said in a video statement. “We’re pre-positioning all kinds of additional equipment and people. I’ve also authorised 100 rooms, hotel rooms, for people to go to, in case they don’t have enough services or protection, safety.”

Green added that, while power had been restored to most of Hawaii Island after Lala, some remote areas were still experiencing outages. Power is expected to be fully restored by September 8.

After passing Hawaii Island during the night, Moke is projected to continue on a westward path near the islands through early Tuesday, according to Casey Oswant, a meteorologist with the Honolulu office of the US National Weather Service.

“There will still be impacts, especially to the windward and southeast sides of the Big Island, but it will probably be a little bit more limited than what we saw with Lala,” Oswant said.

The National Hurricane Center projects that Moke will bring roughly 130mm to 250mm (5 to 10 inches) of rainfall over the next two days on the southeast and windward sides of the Big Island. Some isolated areas could see as much as 380mm (15 inches).

Eastern Maui, meanwhile, is likely to receive 76mm to 150mm (3 to 6 inches), with smaller amounts of precipitation expected across the rest of the island chain.

Governor Green warned that the heavy rain is unlikely to end with Moke.

“Everyone be very careful,” he said. “This storm will be followed by another storm front about a week later, and we continue to see the impacts of these major weather fronts that have hit Hawaii.”

Met Office predicts ‘unprecedented’ sea surface temperature rise of 3C (5.4F) plus will heighten extreme weather risks.

The impact of this year’s El Nino event is expected to be the most intense in more than a century, United Kingdom forecasters have warned.

The effect of the event will drive the risk of drought, high temperatures, intense rainfall and other extreme weather effects, the Met Office said in a statement issued on Friday.

Typically, El Nino leads sea surface temperatures to rise between 1-2 degrees Celsius (1.8-3.6 degrees Fahrenheit). However, forecasts for the 2026 version predict record values of more than 3C (5.4F) in the coming months, the forecasters said.

“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Adam Scaife, head of the office’s long-range forecasting. “I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.”

If the spike plays out as anticipated, “then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences”, he added.

The chief forecaster separately told the BBC that the three-degree rise was “unheard-of in modern climate records”.

El Nino is triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, influencing global weather patterns.

Governments around the world are already grappling with historic climate events so far this year.

Wildfires have burned through more than 200,000 hectares (494,200 acres) in Indonesia and rampaged across southwestern Europe, forcing the displacement of at least 325,000 people in Spain and France. Other countries are dealing with severe droughts.

The Met Office said El Nino will spawn wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe, including the UK, as autumn and winter arrive in the Northern Hemisphere.

Particularly strong effects are expected throughout the Tropics, Scaife said, “where we expect really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific”.

In mid-August, the UK recorded its hottest day of the year as the temperature in west London climbed to 38.1C (100.5F), beating the previous high of 38C (100.4F) in June.

Combined with the effects of human-induced climate change, the Met Office warned that the event is “very likely” to make 2027 the hottest year on record globally.