clarity

EDITOR’S ANALYSIS

Houthi blockade for now is shaping who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves, analysts say, even as oil prices soar.

As oil prices hit $100 a barrel on Thursday, experts say they are watching to see which vessels Yemen’s Houthis allow to pass through in the Red Sea as that will indicate how the crude market trends.

Brent futures rose $6.58 or 6.96 percent, to $100.65 a barrel, exceeding $100 for the first time since late May.

That was on the back of the Iran-aligned Houthis saying they were cutting off the passage Riyadh had been using to ship parts of its crude oil once Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against United States and Israel attacks.

On Monday, the Yemeni group declared a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia and said they would target Saudi, Israeli, and United States-linked tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb, which links the Red sea to the Indian Ocean.

On Thursday, the Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, the group said, with a Saudi news agency later confirming that one of the two vessels was set ablaze.

It is not clear if the second one was also hit, according to marine analysis firm, Windward.

“The Houthis are quite mercurial and there is no complete clarity on what the blockade means,” said Michelle Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

“We’re watching now the ability of Chinese-owned tankers at [Saudi port] Yanbu if they are allowed to go through Bab el-Mandeb. Two have gone through but those had been loaded before the blockade was announced.”

The Houthis have previously relied on China for help, including for drone components, and “the Chinese have previously had a free pass”, said Bockmann, including between 2023 and 2025 when the Houthis attacked cargo ships aligned with Israel and the US in the Red Sea in the wake of the war on Gaza.

Windward tracking shows the cargo that moved through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint on July 20 was Saudi in origin but Chinese in crew and destination, and it drew no interdiction. The two vessels passed through the same corridor that Western- and Saudi-linked operators were being warned to avoid.

The enforcement is calibrated to affiliation rather than cargo and the blockade is shaping who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves, Windward said.

“No one has ever been able to predict their actions… but they know you don’t have to do a lot to get the oil markets to react,” said Bockmann referring to the rise in benchmark oil prices on Thursday.

Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, underscored that the standoff in Bab el-Mandeb is happening while crude buffers have nor been replenished after the peak of the Hormuz crisis earlier this year.

“The multiple chokepoints are new and an example of littoral states looking to use their leverage,” Ziemba said.

Diesel also impacted

For now, both the Houthi threats and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil transited before the US-Israel war on Iran, has sent prices soaring, including at the pump in the US reaching the national average of $4.09 per gallon (3.4 liter).

“Today’s rise in oil prices could cause $0.10 to $0.20 rise over the next week or two per gallon average price in US,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

But De Haan is looking beyond the two straits and says he’s watching the availability of diesel as price per gallon averages $5.34.

“Diesel prices are being impacted more significantly,” he told Al Jazeera.

One reason behind that is that Ukrainian drone attacks have taken offline some of Russia’s oil refineries. The shortages are being felt domestically leading to Russia banning diesel exports, De Haan said.

“Oil exports are one story, but supplies of diesel gasoline, jet fuel is another story,” he said.

Another unknown in the mix is the role of China which, historically has been a major importer but slashed those imports in the past few months, helping stabilise global prices as some pressure on demand eased.

“It’s been one of the reasons that oil prices haven’t gone up dramatically – that china slashed its imports, and no one predicted that,” De Haan said. “For now, we don’t know if china is using its own strategic reserves or if it will start import again.”

Between those geopolitical plays and the upcoming hurricane season in the US, there is “another wildcard ahead for global refining capacity” and prices, De Haan said.

MINNEAPOLIS — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is planning for right fielder Kyle Tucker to be out for the rest of the series against the Minnesota Twins, after he left Monday’s game with low back spasms.

Roberts hopes to write Tucker into the lineup Friday, when the Dodgers open a three-game series in San Diego, after three days off, plus most of the game Monday.

“Hopefully he [can take] advantage of this, obviously to get right, but also kind of a mental reset,” Roberts said. “Hopefully the four days will suffice.”

Tucker, who said he felt a little better Tuesday but still sore, especially when rotating, is “pretty confident” that he’ll be able to avoid the injured list. And if he can take swings on Wednesday, he’ll probably be on track for that Friday return.

“But if he doesn’t, then we’ll have probably a tougher decision on Friday,” Roberts said.

Tucker, who has a .707 on-base-plus-slugging-percentage this season, has had a slow offensive start to his Dodgers’ tenure. He wasn’t ready to make any declarations about the potential benefits of time off to reset.

“Maybe,” he said. “We’ll see after I get back. We’ll see how that goes.”

The news on catcher Dalton Rushing, who exited Monday’s game to rule out a concussion, was more straightforward.

Rushing hadn’t yet gone through the second round of concussion testing needed to clear him to play when Roberts addressed the media Tuesday afternoon. But Rushing had told Roberts he was ready to play.

“That doesn’t carry too much weight until I hear from the medical staff,” Roberts said. “But it is good to know that he said he’s good to go. My hope is that he’ll be available off the bench in some capacity.”

As a downpour hammered the tarped field early Tuesday evening, it was unclear when exactly the Dodgers would be playing. But despite plenty of rain in the forecast Tuesday evening, the teams and Major League Baseball identified a window for the game.

The Twins announced an estimated 5:05 p.m. PDT first pitch, representing a 25-minute rain delay.