Cautious

Contributor: Carlson’s cautious apology does little to repair Trumpism’s damage

When you break a promise as clear as “No new wars,” you shouldn’t be surprised when even your most loyal supporters revolt. And that’s exactly what is happening to President Trump.

One such disillusioned supporter is Tucker Carlson — who on a recent podcast with his brother Buckley admitted, in essence, “My bad.”

“You wrote speeches for him. I campaigned for him. I mean, we’re implicated in this, for sure,” Tucker Carlson said during the conversation.

“In real ways, you and me, and millions of people like us, are the reason this is happening right now,” Calson confessed, referring to the Iran war. “We’ll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be, and I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people, and it was not intentional.”

Having worked for Carlson for six years at the Daily Caller, I’ve always found him intelligent and funny and generous, even as I have profoundly differed with him on a variety of issues throughout the Trump era.

It did my heart good to hear him accept some responsibility for what Trump has wrought.

A lot of people were complicit in boosting Trump, and some of them have even subsequently criticized him for various sins (failing to release the Epstein files, going to war with Iran, etc.). But this is the first time I can recall anyone of this stature explicitly apologizing for helping elect Trump. And that warrants a certain amount of respect.

Still, let’s be clear-eyed about what Carlson is — and isn’t — saying here. Specifically, it’s worth noting that the apology doesn’t extend to validating those of us who opposed Trump from the beginning.

In fact, it almost can’t.

Doing that would require the confessor to reinterpret not just Trump’s presidency, but also the entire ecosystem that made supporting Trump a viable option in the first place.

It would mean admitting that the framework he used to evaluate Trump was flawed, not just the outcome.

That would end up being perceived as an indictment on the broader Republican electorate — and on Carlson’s worldview and judgment — not just on Trump’s recent performance or (even more conveniently) the notion that Trump has changed or was co-opted by Israel (or whomever) since 2024.

It’s a much bigger ask than saying, “I regret this specific result.”

Specifically, Carlson is not conceding that the “Never Trump” crowd got it right — which is what those of us who have spent a decade opposing Trump (with little fanfare) have been dying to hear for a decade (even more so than “I’m sorry.”)

This is an important distinction, partly because it means that, although Carlson is now a convenient ally in the “resistance,” he is not opposing Trump for the same reasons that most Democrats or Never Trump conservatives oppose Trump.

If you put aside Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran, the Carlsons’ second-biggest criticism of Trump (based on their two-hour-long podcast) is his failure to more vigorously defend the Jan. 6 Capitol rioters.

That’s right. It’s not that he sicced immigration enforcers on immigrants and that they subsequently killed two American citizens. It’s not that DOGE fired lots of good people. It’s not that this president tried to use the Department of Justice to seek vengeance on his political rivals. It’s that Trump — the person who pardoned these people — wasn’t aggressive enough in defending the criminals who stormed the U.S. Capitol while trying to overturn the 2020 election results.

And while there’s no reason to doubt Carlson’s remarks are sincere (he has been a vocal opponent of war with Iran) and meaningful (he’s an influential figure), his comments may also signal something else: a recognition that opportunity awaits.

Consider this: Trump’s political standing is in deep trouble (Trump’s approval rating is down to 33%, according to a new AP-NORC poll).

What is more, Trump’s fading fortunes aren’t just isolated to Trump. As always, there is collateral damage: JD Vance.

Once seen as Trump’s obvious heir, Vance now finds himself in a difficult position, defending the war in Iran and attacking the pope, while simultaneously releasing a book about his Catholic conversion.

In that sense, Carlson’s apology could be less a grudging epiphany than a strategic recalibration. It acknowledges that Trump has gone off the rails but stops short of examining why it was destined to go wrong in the first place.

Carlson gets close to the answer when he tells his brother, “there were signs of low character. We knew that,” but then dismisses it by saying “there are tons of people of low character who outperform their character.”

Without deeper reflection, this apology risks becoming just another pivot — one that has as much to do with positioning as it does with repentance.

And that would be a shame.

It’s easy to regret an outcome. It’s much harder to interrogate the instincts that led you (and tens of millions of Americans) to enable it.

Apologies like Carlson’s won’t close the chapter on this long national nightmare.

Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

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Rand Merchant Bank: Cautious Optimism

Rob Leon, Co-Head of Investment Banking at Rand Merchant Bank, which won Best Investment Bank in Africa, explains Africa’s opportunities to become a global investment hub.

Global Finance: What does the African deal-making landscape look like, and how do you see it evolving?

Rob Leon: Africa’s deal-making landscape is marked by cautious optimism. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and global economic headwinds, investment opportunities are expanding in key sectors, with infrastructure being central. Interest in natural resources—particularly critical minerals needed for clean energy—is also growing, and private equity and venture capitalists are becoming increasingly active. Notably, reforms in several countries are improving investor confidence. Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, Kenya, and Nigeria dominate due to their large consumer bases, diversified economies, and reform momentum.

Over the coming years, deal activity is expected to be deeply driven by regional integration, policy reforms, and the demographic dividend. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will unlock cross-border opportunities, making pan-African mergers and acquisitions more viable.

In the short term, we expect moderate growth in deal volumes, led by the energy and digital sectors. In the medium term, AfCFTA will lower trade barriers and harmonize regulation, creating conditions for larger cross-border deals. Beyond 2030, Africa could emerge as a global investment hub if political stability and regulatory harmony are sustained.

GF: What has made RMB a top investment bank, and how critical are broader Africa markets?

Leon: Our diversified portfolio, together with a disciplined approach to balancing risk, return, and growth, have let RMB deliver consistent returns in a very competitive market. Besides that, we differentiate ourselves through a collaborative, client-centric, and entrepreneurial approach.

Broader Africa is central to our growth strategy. RMB has a deal footprint in 35 countries as well as an international presence. That network matters because many of our clients are regional or internationally connected businesses that need capital, risk management, and advisory solutions across jurisdictions.

GF: How can Africa deepen its underdeveloped corporate debt market?

Leon: Africa’s corporate debt markets have developed meaningfully over time, but their depth and breadth still vary considerably across countries, sectors, and currencies. In many markets, the issue is not a lack of demand for capital. It is that the available pools of capital, the range of issuers, and the array of funding instruments are not yet broad or deep enough to meet the demand. A key consideration is currency. Many corporates’ revenues are denominated in local currency, yet a meaningful share of available funding is hard currency-based.

On the positive side, domestic institutional capital is growing and should support deeper and more diversified debt markets over time. This is encouraging, with borrowers taking a strategic approach to funding, including engagement from a broader set of investors and growing demand for solutions that go beyond traditional bilateral lending.

GF: Equity-market activity remains subdued. What can Africa do to change this?

Leon: While 2025 was a stellar year for many African equity markets, we still see muted capital raising activity, with companies preferring debt financing or private equity. To change this, Africa needs a mix of structural reforms, market deepening, and investor confidence-building measures. Currently, many markets are underutilized. Exchanges remain small, with limited trading volumes; listing is burdensome; and volatility and perception often deter long-term investors. That said, a few stock exchanges are highly sophisticated, with deep liquidity, diverse listings, and advanced infrastructure.

To revitalize equity capital raising, Africa must strengthen market infrastructure by modernizing its trading platforms and settlement systems and encourage cross-listings and regional exchange integration. There is also a need for policy and regulatory reforms and strengthening of corporate governance standards. Africa should also leverage AfCFTA to create pan-African capital markets and pool liquidity across exchanges to attract larger listings.

GF: How large a role is sustainable finance assuming in Africa? Leon: Sustainable finance is a rapidly growing market that creates access to large reservoirs of capital and a diverse set of investors. RMB is at the forefront of advancing this market, having facilitated $12 billion in sustainable and transition finance. This includes blended finance structures to mobilize capital for early-stage projects and innovative technology. The bank has committed to facilitate $26.8 billion in sustainable and transition finance by 2030.

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Oil prices drop sharply after Iran ceasefire as markets remain cautious

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Oil prices have fallen sharply and Asian markets surged on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz but traders are cautious so far until the truce proves durable.


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Brent crude stood at $92.99 per barrel as of Wednesday morning, up 28.30% since the war began in late February but well below the peaks of recent weeks which went up to $110 per barrel.

WTI crude sat at $94.70 per barrel, still 41.30% above pre-war levels despite the ceasefire-driven selloff. Wholesale gasoline was at $2.94 per gallon, also up more than 41% since the conflict began.

The moves follow a dramatic overnight plunge after US President Donald Trump said he was holding off on threatened strikes against Iranian bridges, power plants and other civilian infrastructure.

Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would be open to shipping for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.

Asia surges, Europe slides

Asian markets responded with enthusiasm. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 5.0% in early Wednesday trading, South Korea’s Kospi soared 5.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.6%.

European markets told a different story. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 6.82% in early trading, reflecting the accumulated damage from weeks of war-driven volatility rather than Wednesday’s ceasefire bounce — European markets having closed before the overnight news broke.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 is down by 3.81% in pre-market US trading, having swung sharply during Tuesday’s session before clawing back losses after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend his deadline and called on Iran to reopen the strait.

Cautious optimism

The ceasefire has done little to fully settle markets.

Attacks were still reported in Israel, Iran and across the Gulf region in the early hours of Wednesday, and neither side has specified when the truce formally begins.

The worry that has stalked markets since late February remains, namely that a prolonged disruption to Gulf oil flows will keep energy prices elevated long enough to push a fresh wave of inflation through the global economy — with or without a ceasefire.

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