Border Disputes

The island has been split since 1974, when Turkiye invaded and seized the northern part after a coup by the Greeks.

Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders have agreed ⁠to open two ⁠new border crossings, coordinate emergency responses, and share archival materials as part of a United Nations-backed effort to resume ⁠peace talks on the divided island.

Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman jointly met with United Nations special envoy Maria Angela Holguin on Monday in the UN-controlled buffer zone that splits the island. The agreement is the first concrete sign of detente between the rivals after nearly a decade of deadlock.

The UN said in a statement that Monday’s meeting was “positive” and that the two leaders would talk again in the coming weeks in the presence of outgoing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

“We are continuing this effort with absolute seriousness and one single goal: resuming the talks before the ‌end ‌of the secretary-general’s term,” at the end of the year, Christodoulides told reporters after the meeting.

Guterres began a new drive to try to resolve the more than five-decade-old conflict in the summer, suggesting new crossings could build trust and confidence. However, the two sides have since been disagreeing ‌over the ground rules for talks.

The move would bring the number of open crossings on the divided Mediterranean island to 11, according ⁠to media in Cyprus.

Cyprus was split in 1974 when Turkiye invaded and seized the northern part in response to a coup instigated by the then-military government in Greece.

A previous power-sharing administration of Greek and Turkish Cypriots had fallen apart in 1963, and a UN Peacekeeping Force has monitored a 180km (112-mile) ceasefire line which splits the two sides since.

Only Turkiye recognises the northern part of the island as an independent republic. Ankara maintains more than 35,000 troops on Cyprus.

Decades of talks have repeatedly failed to reunify Cyprus, with the last official round collapsing in 2017. Greek Cypriots are against Ankara having any hands-on involvement; Turkish Cypriots say it is essential.

Last year, the north elected its first pro-unification leader since 2020, generating renewed hope.

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of aiding RSF attacks, while Ethiopia claims Sudan backs Tigray rebels.

Ethiopia has ordered six Sudanese diplomats to leave the country within 48 hours and closed Sudan’s consulate in the border town of Asosa, according to Ethiopian and Sudanese officials.

The orders on Tuesday came as tensions between the countries rise, with Sudan accusing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group of using Ethiopian territory to launch drone attacks on civilian infrastructure. Ethiopia claims Sudan backs rebels in its northern Tigray region.

On Sunday, ⁠Sudan lodged a complaint against Ethiopia with both the United Nations Security Council and the African Union’s Peace and Security Council, accusing Ethiopia of allowing the RSF to use its territory to launch deadly drone attacks against civilian infrastructure in Sudan.

“The Sudanese government remains committed to its right to defend its territory. Nevertheless, it is making ⁠every possible effort to avoid an open war with Ethiopia,” Amjad Farid, political and foreign affairs adviser for Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council, said.

A direct military confrontation with Addis Ababa would severely strain an already exhausted Sudanese military apparatus, which is still involved in intense battles with the RSF in the southeast of the country.

Sudan’s military has repeatedly accused Ethiopia of aiding the RSF, which it has been fighting in a civil war since April 2023. Addis Ababa denies it supports the RSF in Sudan’s civil war.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia has accused the Sudanese military of backing rebels linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a charge Khartoum denied.

Severing diplomatic ties

Ethiopia also accused Egypt and Eritrea of supporting the Tigrayan rebels who launched an offensive ⁠against government forces in September. All three countries have rejected the accusations.

The latest expulsions of Sudanese diplomats follow Ethiopia’s decision to expel 10 Eritrean diplomats and close its embassy in Eritrea on October 1. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties.

Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat last month. For Egypt, its dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remains a major strategic concern that has long strained relations between the neighbours.

It’s one of Africa’s longest-running conflicts.

The dispute over the territory of Western Sahara started more than 50 years ago. It began with the end of Spanish colonial rule in the region.

Since then, both Morocco and the Polisario Front have claimed the Western Sahara.

In the 1990s, the United Nations tried to reach a settlement, and deployed a peacekeeping mission to the region.

Last week, that effort ended when Russia and the United States blocked proposals to extend the mission’s mandate.

So, could this development lead to renewed fighting?

Presenter: Imran Khan

Guests:

Samir Bennis – Political analyst and author of the book The Self-Determination Delusion: How Activist Scholars and Journalists Have Hijacked the Western Sahara Case

Irene Fernandez-Molina – Senior lecturer in International Relations at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom and author of the book Moroccan Foreign Policy under Mohammed VI, 1999-2014

Mahjoub Mleiha –  Advocacy head of Collective of Sahrawi Human Rights Defenders (CODESA)

Along the shores of the Neiden Fjord, in Norway’s northernmost county Finnmark, Nils Boine* gazes out across the water. On the horizon, the Neiden River splits around the craggy island of Skogerøya, but lurking beneath its surface is a fisherman’s bounty: hundreds of king crabs.

His grandmother was Sea Sámi, from an Indigenous coastal people whose homeland, Sápmi, stretches across northern Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia’s heavily militarised Kola Peninsula. In Finnmark’s fjords, Sea Sámi families have fished for generations. But these waters are dissected by more than currents and shoals. Since Norway and Russia fixed their border in 1826, Sámi communities in the region have been divided by a national boundary.

Two hundred years later, this Arctic community is a combination of Sámi, Norwegians, Finns, Ukrainians, Russians, and international seasonal workers. Most of the Sámi population lives in Norway, with roughly 2 percent residing in Russia.

The Sámi have established a cross-border lifestyle, supported by flexible policies, including a Norwegian-Russian agreement allowing visa-free travel for those living within 30km (18.5 miles) of the border.

Security, however, has begun to tighten since the onset of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine. The West sees Finnmark as part of NATO’s exposed northern flank, as it is directly opposite Russia’s heavily armed Kola Peninsula. The Norwegian border town of Kirkenes has been caught in a spy war with Russia, with multiple Russian operatives having been caught posing as tourists and fishermen while trying to engage in espionage.

Now, border bureaucracy is a daily reality, and reindeer herding, language revitalisation and hunting traditions are increasingly being navigated through permits and regulations, making the wider Arctic infrastructure feel fractured.

“I have friends in Russia,” Boine says. “We used to go shopping in Russia, and go there for weekends.”

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, those crossings have stopped — partly as a display of solidarity with Ukraine, and partly due to safety concerns.

“A local person was just arrested in Russia, so people are afraid to cross the border,” Boine explains. “The rumours say that he had some illegal things in his car, but he was arrested, and the [Ministry of] Foreign Affairs in Norway tried to do something, but it’s very difficult, of course, because we don’t have any diplomats in Russia.”

He is referring to the reported June arrest of a Kirkenes businessman. Lawyer John Christian Elden told the daily newspaper Verdens Gang (VG) that the man was in custody for two months under alleged “possession of weapons or ammunition”. Some Kirkenes residents were left shaken by the news, as recreational hunting is common in the region. They fear accidentally crossing the Russian border with forgotten hunting ammunition that might be left in their cars.

The number of Russian tourists visiting Norway has also declined, from 250,000 in 2019 to 52,000 last year.

“Before, we had Russian guests, but not now,” Boine says. Fortunately for his family, who run a tourism company, 80 percent of customers come from Asia or Finland. Their business has emerged relatively unscathed, but other companies have not been as lucky.

“Shops in the area have lost a lot of income without Russian [tourists],” says Boine. “Several shops have had to close.”

In a landscape traditionally connected for centuries, the fragmentation of communities is deeply concerning for both the regional economy and Sámi culture. Cross-border connections are deeply rooted in the regional psyche.

For Boine, the war in Ukraine has put his friendships with people in Russia on hold.

“They are afraid to do something wrong or write something wrong,” he says quietly. “You never know what might happen if they have too close contact,” he says.

“I want to be careful.”

The UN Security Council rejected the competing proposals, leaving the peacekeeping mission without an approved extension.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in the disputed Western Sahara faces an uncertain future after competing United States and Russian resolutions failed at the UN Security Council.

Russia vetoed the US-backed proposal on Friday, despite support from 11 members of the 15-member council.

A rival Russian draft then failed to secure the nine votes needed for adoption.

The mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is due to expire on Saturday unless the council reaches a last-minute agreement.

Western Sahara is a former Spanish colony in northwest Africa. Morocco considers the territory its own while the Algeria-backed Polisario Front seeks to establish an independent state called the Sahrawi Republic.

The UN established MINURSO in 1991 to monitor a ceasefire and prepare a referendum on the territory’s future, but disagreements over who could vote have prevented it from taking place.

The US draft would have extended the mission for a year while removing “referendum” from its name and making Morocco’s autonomy proposal the only basis for further talks.

Under that plan, the territory would manage its internal affairs but remain under Moroccan sovereignty.

The council had already made the proposal a basis for negotiations last year.

US Ambassador Mike Waltz told the council in New York on Friday that the referendum had been stalled for decades.

Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said at the same meeting that Moscow opposed the draft because it favoured one side.

Russia instead proposed renewing the existing mission without those changes.

Morocco’s royal palace welcomed the failure to renew MINURSO, saying on Friday that UN personnel and equipment should leave the territory.

Sidi Omar, the Polisario Front’s representative at the UN, told reporters on Friday that he welcomed Russia’s veto because the US proposal would undermine Sahrawi self-determination.

Low-level fighting has continued since Polisario said it was resuming armed struggle in 2020.

Foreign ministers form security committee to share intelligence and follow up on impact of Jordan’s strikes on Syria.

Syria is reopening its border crossing with Jordan, and the two countries will investigate Jordanian strikes on suspected ISIL (ISIS) sites that killed seven in southern Syria.

Nassib, Jordan’s only border crossing with Syria, will reopen on Wednesday morning, with regular passenger and commercial traffic resuming, the state news agency SANA reported.

The crossing was briefly closed following the Jordanian airstrikes, which targeted ISIL “hideouts” in southern Syria on Monday in response to a Greek Orthodox church shooting by gunmen in Jordan’s Karak on Friday, the Jordanian military said in a statement. ISIL took responsibility for the attack.

Jordan’s strikes on Syria killed at least seven people in Deraa and Suwayda, including five members of the same family, three of whom were children. Syria’s Ministry of Emergency and Disaster Management said its teams had responded to attacks at four sites.

The two countries also agreed to form a security committee to examine the aftermath of the strikes, foreign ministers said in a statement following a phone call between the two countries’ top diplomats.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said Monday’s air attacks were based on field intelligence and aimed at “neutralising confirmed threats and imminent terrorist operations targeting Jordan’s security”.

Safadi expressed “deep regret” over civilian deaths in his call with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and stressed Jordan’s respect for Syria’s sovereignty and stability.

Jordan had claimed that the strikes were coordinated with the Syrian government, which Damascus denied.

In addition to investigating the attacks, the security committee will develop “field and intelligence coordination in dealing with terrorist threats” to ensure the protection of innocent civilians.

The church shooting claimed the lives of at least nine people and wounded 34 others. Jordanian security forces arrested two brothers and their brother-in-law on suspicion of carrying out the attack.

The proposal comes days after Pyongyang says it moved new military units into ‘firing positions’ along the border.

South Korea has proposed holding military talks with North Korea in a bid to calm rising tensions over their heavily fortified border.

Seoul said on Friday that it had invited Pyongyang to discuss restoring communication channels. The offer was made as military activity on the border increases.

Talks with North Korea would aim to “mutually confirm” the precise location of the land Military Demarcation Line (MDL), “discuss ways to restore military communication lines and prevent accidental clashes in border areas”, Kim Hong-cheol, deputy minister for national defence policy, told reporters.

“Specific dates and locations could be discussed through Panmunjom,” Kim said, referring to the symbolic truce village on the North-South border where soldiers from both Koreas stand face to face.

He added that the South was open to three-way talks involving the United States-led United Nations Command and hoped for “a positive response from North Korea”.

It remains unclear whether North Korea would agree to talks. Leader Kim Jong Un has taken a hardline approach towards Seoul and suspended virtually all dialogue and cooperation with the South in recent years.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang has raised its military activity along the border and continues to do so.

On Wednesday, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of the North Korean leader, announced that new military units have been moved into “firing positions” along the border.

Mines, barbed-wire fences, tactical roads, antitank walls and other fortifications have also been added to one of the world’s most heavily armed borders.

Tensions have worsened since last month when three South Korean soldiers were injured by explosions near the military demarcation line in the western section of the Demilitarized Zone, the buffer zone that runs between the Koreas, commonly known as the DMZ.

The South blamed the blast on landmines laid by the North and demanded an apology. Pyongyang has fiercely rejected the accusation.

Seoul’s Ministry of National Defence said on Friday that it was difficult to predict “what further incidents could occur if this situation is allowed to continue unaddressed”.

The ministry noted that a proposal for talks last year did not receive a response from Pyongyang.

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has called for the North to return to dialogue. However, Kim Yo Jong responded by slamming the suggestion of bilateral talks as “the climax of the farce”.

Libya’s eastern parliament has walked back its objection to an agreement with Turkiye, demarcating boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea.

Its rival administration, the internationally recognised Government of National Unity, signed the deal seven years ago.

The ratification has revived a simmering dispute over exploring a potentially gas-rich region. Greece, Cyprus and Egypt were quick to object, with Athens referring the issue to the UN Security Council.

They say Libya and Turkiye are ignoring their sovereign rights.

So what are the geopolitical implications of this deal in the eastern Mediterranean?

Presenter: Mohammed Jamjoom

Guests:

Sinan Ulgen – Chairman of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies

Maria Gavouneli – Professor of international law at the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

Tarek Megerisi – Director of Informmi, a geopolitical research and advisory firm