Asia

The United States and Iran may have agreed to a ceasefire for now, but the world’s supply chains will continue to feel the effects.

Beyond oil and gas, Iran’s near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked shipments of critical raw materials from the Gulf.

Petrochemicals, helium and aluminium are just some of the products that have not been able to reach manufacturing hubs around the world.

Many everyday items are affected, from plastic packaging to the advanced semiconductors in our smartphones.

How will our supply chains recover, and can they become more resilient to global shocks?

The Strait of Hormuz, which links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has held global attention since Israel and the US began their war on Iran in February.

Until fighting began, the narrow channel, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped from Gulf producers in peacetime, remained toll-free and safe for vessels. The strait is shared by Iran and Oman and does not fall into the category of international waters.

After the US and Israel began strikes, Iran retaliated by attacking “enemy” merchant ships in the strait, effectively halting passage for all, stranding shipping, and creating one of the worst-ever global energy distribution crises.

Tehran continued to refuse to re-open the strait to all traffic at the start of this week, despite US President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges if it did not relent. Trump backed away from his threat on Tuesday night when a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared.

That followed a 10-point peace proposal from Iran that Trump described as a “workable” basis on which to negotiate a permanent end to hostilities.

As part of the truce, Tehran has now issued official terms it says will guide its control of the Strait going forward. The US has not directly acknowledged the terms ahead of talks set to begin in Islamabad on Friday. However, analysts say Tehran’s continued control will be unpopular with Washington, as well as other countries.

During the crisis, only a few ships from specific countries deemed friendly to Iran and those which pay a toll have been granted safe passage. At least two tolls for ships are believed to have been paid in Chinese yuan, in what appears to be a strategy to weaken the US dollar, but also to avoid US sanctions. China, which buys 80 percent of Iran’s oil, already pays Tehran in yuan.

Here’s what we know about how shipments will work from now on:

Who is controlling the strait now?

On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said Iran would grant safe passage through the strait during the ceasefire in “coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations”.

On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released a map of the strait showing a safe route for ships to follow. The map appears to direct ships further north towards the Iranian coast and away from the traditional route closer to the coast of Oman.

In a statement, the IRGC said all vessels must use the new map for navigation due to “the likelihood of the presence of various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone”.

It is unclear whether Iran is collecting toll fees during the ceasefire period.

However, Trump said on Tuesday the US would be “helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait and that the US army would be “hanging around” as the negotiations go on.

The Strait will be “OPEN & SAFE” he posted on his Truth Social media site on Thursday, adding that US troops would not leave the area, and threatening to resume attacks if the talks don’t go well.

It’s not known to what extent US troops are directing what happens in the strait now.

Delhi-based maritime analyst C Uday Bhaskar told Al Jazeera that there is a lot of “uncertainty” about who can sail through the strait, and that only between three and five ships have transited since the war was paused.

How does Iran’s 10-point plan affect the Strait?

Among Tehran’s main demands listed on its 10-point plan are that the US and Israel permanently cease all attacks on Iran and its allies – particularly Lebanon – lift all sanctions, and allow Iran to retain control over Hormuz. The plan has not been fully published but is understood to be a starting point for talks.

Iranian media say Iran is considering a plan to charge up to $2m per vessel to be shared with Oman on the opposite side of the strait. Other reports suggest Iran could charge $1 per barrel of oil being shipped.

Revenues raised would be used to rebuild military and civilian infrastructure damaged by US-Israeli strikes, Tehran said.

Oman has rejected the idea. Transport minister Said Al-Maawali said on Wednesday that the Omanis previously “signed all international maritime transport agreements” which bar taking fees.

What does international law say about tolls on shipping?

Critics of Iran’s plan to charge tolls say it violates international law guiding safe maritime passage, and should not be part of a final ceasefire agreement.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) says levies cannot be charged on ships sailing through international straits or territorial seas.

The law allows coastal states to collect fees for services rendered, such as navigation assistance or port use, but not for passage itself.

Neither the US nor Iran has ratified that particular convention, however.

Even if they had, there could be ways to get around this law anyway. Analyst Bhaskar told Al Jazeera that if Iran instead charged fees to de-mine the strait and make it safe for passage again, that could be allowable under maritime laws.

There is no precedent in recent history of countries officially taxing passage through international straits or waterways.

In October 2024, a United Nations Security Council report alleged that the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen were collecting “illegal fees” from shipping companies to allow vessels to pass through the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, where it was targeting ships linked to Israel during the Gaza war.

Last week, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei suggested the Houthis could shut the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route again in light of the war on Iran.

How might countries react to a Hormuz toll?

Tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz would likely most affect oil and gas-producing countries in the Gulf, but ripple effects will spread to others as well, as the current supply shocks have shown.

Gulf countries, which issued statements calling for the reopening of the passage and praising the ceasefire on Wednesday, would also face a continuing degree of uncertainty, analysts say, as Iran could again disrupt flows in the future.

Before the ceasefire was announced, Bahrain had already proposed a resolution at the UN Security Council calling on member states to coordinate and jointly reopen the passage by “all necessary means”. It was backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. On April 7, 11 of 15 UNSC members voted in favour of that resolution.

But Russia and China vetoed the resolution, saying it was biased against Iran and did not address the initial strikes on Iran by the US and Israel.

Beyond the region, observers say the US is unlikely to accept indefinite toll demands by Iran as part of the negotiations expected to begin on Friday.

A toll to pass through the Strait of Hormuz “is not going to go down well with President Trump and his expectations that the strait should be open for everyone”, Amin Saikal, a professor at the Australian National University, said.

Other major powers have also voiced opposition. Ahead of the ceasefire, Britain had begun discussions with 40 other countries to find a way to reopen the strait.

Practical realities in the strait might see a different scenario play out with ship owners losing millions each day their vessels remain stranded seeking to get them out quickly and undamaged experts say. They are more likely to comply with Iran, at least for now.

“If I were the owner of a VLCC [very large crude carrier] which weighs about 300,000 tonnes, whose value could be a quarter billion dollars…I would believe the Iranians if they said we have laid mines,” Bhaskar said.

US Vice President JD Vance says Lebanon is not part of the US-Iran ceasefire, stressing that neither Washington nor Israel agreed to that. After Pakistan said Lebanon was included, Israel killed hundreds of people when it carried out around 100 strikes across Lebanon in just 10 minutes.

Islamabad, Pakistan – Just under 90 minutes remained until United States President Donald Trump’s deadline to destroy Iran’s “civilisation” late on Tuesday in Washington, DC, when he took to his favourite social media platform, Truth Social, again.

He said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran after almost six weeks of bombing.

Soon after, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the ceasefire on X, giving a world on edge a chance to breathe again.

Beyond the fact of the ceasefire, much remains unclear. Trump claimed Iran would allow unimpeded transit through the Strait of Hormuz while Araghchi said passage through the waterway would need to be done under the auspices of the Iranian armed forces. Other key differences quickly emerged: Was Lebanon included in the ceasefire? Has the US agreed to allow Iran to pursue uranium enrichment? Has Trump agreed to a 10-point Iranian list of demands or accepted that merely as a conversation starter?

But there also was a common glue that bound both Trump’s statement and Araghchi’s assertions: acknowledgement of Pakistan’s central role as the mediator that managed to persuade warring nations deeply distrustful of each other back to the negotiating table.

Trump said he agreed to the ceasefire “based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan”, adding that they had “requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran”.

Araghchi was even more profuse in his praise for Pakistan. “On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for his dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region,” he said in a statement, adding that Iran had accepted the ceasefire “in response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif”.

Sharif, who had publicly called on the US and Iran to accept a ceasefire a short time before, posted again 90 minutes later, highlighting what may be Pakistan’s most significant diplomatic achievement in years.

“With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY,” he wrote, inviting both delegations to Islamabad on Friday “to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes”.

By Wednesday afternoon, Sharif had spoken directly with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian too. Formal talks were expected to begin in Islamabad on Friday with a US delegation that could potentially be led by Vice President JD Vance, accompanied by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who had previously been engaged in dialogue with Iran before the war.

The war, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and struck Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, has killed more than 2,000 people in Iran in five weeks, disrupted roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supplies and threatened to draw in regional powers.

That it has been paused, even temporarily, is the result of weeks of painstaking diplomacy that few believed Pakistan could deliver.

Early moves and a balancing act

Pakistan’s diplomatic engagement began almost immediately after the first US-Israeli attacks of the war, largely behind the scenes.

When the first strikes hit Tehran, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is also deputy prime minister, was in Saudi Arabia, attending a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Within hours, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement, and Dar called Araghchi to convey solidarity.

By March 3, Dar was addressing the country’s Senate, outlining Pakistan’s position. “Pakistan is ready to facilitate dialogue between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad,” he told lawmakers.

At home, meanwhile, protests erupted. In Karachi, demonstrators tried to storm the US consulate on March 1, leaving at least 10 people dead.

Pakistan’s Shia Muslim population, estimated at 15 to 20 percent of the country’s roughly 250 million people, was watching closely. As sectarian tensions rose, Munir summoned Shia clerics to Rawalpindi and warned that violence inside Pakistan would not be tolerated.

At the same time, Islamabad was dealing with multiple pressures. It remained engaged in what officials described as an “open war” against the Afghan Taliban. It was also grappling with rising fuel costs due to disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over remittances from Pakistani workers in Gulf states.

On March 12, Sharif travelled to Jeddah with Munir to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, expressing “full solidarity” while urging restraint against mounting Iranian attacks against Gulf countries.

It was a delicate balancing act. Pakistan had to maintain its mutual defence pact with Riyadh, signed in September, without being drawn into a direct confrontation with Iran, its southwesterly neighbour with which it shares a nearly 1,000km (620-mile) border.

Qamar Cheema, executive director of the Islamabad-based Sanober Institute, said Pakistan’s early condemnation of the US-Israeli strikes proved crucial.

“When Pakistan condemned American strikes,” he told Al Jazeera, “that was where Pakistan won over the Iranians as well. This role as a global peacemaker is the result of personal diplomatic investment in Iran and the protection of international law.”

Masood Khan, a former Pakistan ambassador to the United Nations and the US, said regional actors were looking for “reliability, impartiality, consistency, restraint and deliverables”.

“We fit the bill and delivered on all counts,” Khan told Al Jazeera. “We did not seek strategic opportunism. We earned their trust.”

War escalates as diplomacy deepens

On the night of March 16-17, Israeli strikes killed Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and, since Khamenei’s death, one of the most powerful figures in Tehran.

On March 18, Israeli jets struck South Pars, the world’s largest natural gasfield, which Iran shares with Qatar and which accounts for roughly 70 percent of Iran’s domestic gas production.

The attack triggered a new wave of Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy infrastructure, sending oil and gas prices soaring.

Against this backdrop, Dar arrived in Riyadh on March 18 for a meeting of 12 foreign ministers convened by Saudi Arabia.

The gathering produced a joint statement condemning Israeli actions. Turkiye and Pakistan resisted harsher language that could have undermined Islamabad’s credibility with Tehran, according to officials aware of the deliberations in Riyadh.

It was in Riyadh that a quadrilateral mechanism also took shape, bringing together Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt.

Betul Dogan-Akkas, assistant professor of international relations at Ankara University, said the format emerged partly from divisions within Gulf diplomacy. While some Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, were by late March increasingly losing patience with Iran’s attacks and raising the prospects of hitting back, others, while also upset with Iran, were still pushing for de-escalation.

“The intra-GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] disagreements over a ceasefire and a diplomatic dialogue with Iran created the need for exactly that kind of actor,” Dogan-Akkas told Al Jazeera, adding that Pakistan’s ties with both sides made it a natural choice for a mediator.

From March 22 to 23, officials confirmed that Munir spoke directly to Trump. The US president had already announced a five-day pause on strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure by then, signalling he was open to a diplomatic exit.

On March 23, Pakistan formally offered to host talks. Sharif echoed the offer publicly hours later on X, tagging Trump, Araghchi and Witkoff.

Initial reactions were mixed. Reports suggested talks could take place in Islamabad within days with Vance, Witkoff and Kushner named as possible members of a US delegation.

Iran, however, denied that negotiations were under way while the White House sought to dampen speculation. “The US will not negotiate through the press,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said.

On March 26, Dar confirmed that the US had shared a 15-point proposal with Iran via Pakistan. It demanded commitments on Iran’s nuclear programme, limits on its ballistic missiles and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran rejected the proposal and responded with a 10-point counteroffer, demanding an end to hostilities, sanctions relief, reparations, recognition of its sovereignty over the strait and the withdrawal of US forces from the region.

The positions remained far apart. But the fact that both proposals passed through Islamabad underscored Pakistan’s central role.

On March 29, the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt reconvened in Islamabad. Before the meeting, Sharif held a lengthy call with Pezeshkian, his second in five days.

After the talks, Dar travelled to Beijing, reflecting China’s growing involvement. He met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the two sides outlined a five-point initiative that included a ceasefire, early dialogue, civilian protection, restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and a larger UN role. On Tuesday, Trump confirmed that China appeared to have played a role in pushing Iran towards talks.

Some critics have described Pakistan’s role as that of a messenger, but Ishtiaq Ahmad, professor emeritus of international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, rejected that notion.

“A messenger transmits, but Pakistan shaped the sequencing, timing and framing of proposals,” he told Al Jazeera. “It had leverage with all sides.”

Dogan-Akkas said Tehran’s choice of Pakistan as mediator was deliberate.

“I believe it is a strategic choice to not project a powerful middle power with a US military base as the mediator but to have another regional country convey the message,” she said.

The Munir factor

Central to Pakistan’s role was its army chief, Munir.

His relationship with Trump dates back to early last year when Pakistan arrested the alleged perpetrator of the Abbey Gate bombing in Kabul in 2021, which occurred as thousands of Afghans tried to flee after the Taliban takeover. Thirteen American service members were killed in that attack.

But their relationship truly took root after the brief conflict between Pakistan and India in May when Trump publicly claimed credit for brokering a ceasefire, a claim acknowledged by Pakistan but rejected by India.

That episode opened a direct channel between Munir and the White House. He has since visited Washington, DC, twice, and Trump has publicly praised him on several occasions.

Pakistan also maintained connections with figures close to the Trump administration, including through business engagements involving Witkoff’s family.

Trump himself acknowledged Pakistan’s ties with Iran, telling reporters that Pakistanis “know Iran very well, better than most,” after hosting Munir for an unprecedented lunch in June.

However, Ahmad cautioned against overstating the personal dimension.

“The personal equation helped accelerate decision-making at a critical moment, but the mediation was not built on personalities alone,” he told Al Jazeera.

“It rested on institutional alignment between Pakistan’s civil and military leadership and on sustained engagement with Washington over the past year. Even if personalities shift, the channel Pakistan has built is now institutionalised,” he said.

Cheema argued that the calculus was also structural.

“Trump understands that in the entire Muslim world, this is the only nuclear-capable country, and it can change the course of history,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to Pakistan.

Countdown to a ceasefire

It was on Sunday on the Christian holiday of Easter when tensions peaked. As Pope Leo XIV called for peace from the Vatican, Trump issued a stark warning on Truth Social.

“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” he wrote, threatening to blow up all of Iran’s bridges and power facilities if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran dismissed the remarks, but behind the scenes, Pakistani officials intensified their diplomatic efforts.

By Monday, Pakistan had put forward a two-phase ceasefire proposal with Munir in contact with Vance, Witkoff and Araghchi.

Trump initially rejected the plan. He set a final deadline of 8pm Washington, DC, time on Tuesday (midnight GMT) and, hours before it expired, warned of catastrophic consequences.

“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he posted. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

According to officials, Munir continued engaging both sides in the final hours, even as much of the diplomacy remained out of public view, until Sharif’s public appeal came with about five hours remaining.

The breakthrough followed shortly after.

As Trump announced the ceasefire and Iran confirmed it, the immediate impact was visible.

Oil prices dropped by 16 percent. The Strait of Hormuz was set to reopen for the first time in five weeks. And Islamabad was ready to become the centre of diplomatic activity.

What comes next?

The temporary ceasefire is not a peace deal. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council described it as a victory while warning that “our hands are on the trigger.”

Key differences remained unresolved, and expectations for the upcoming talks are cautious.

Despite Sharif’s claim that Lebanon was included, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the arrangement does not cover Lebanon, and Israeli attacks there on Wednesday killed dozens of people and wounded hundreds.

Still, analysts said Pakistan’s role marks a significant shift.

A country that was not at the table for talks that resulted in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or the Abraham Accords has now positioned itself at the centre of a major diplomatic effort.

“This is the first time Pakistan has simultaneously managed active conflict mediation between two adversaries under ongoing military escalation without direct contact between them,” Ahmad said.

Dogan-Akkas offered a more cautious assessment, noting that Pakistan does not have a long history of mediation compared with countries such as Kuwait, Oman or Qatar.

The outcome, she said, reflects Pakistan’s ties in the Gulf and its improving relationship with Washington rather than a deeply institutionalised mediation role.

When Pakistan quietly facilitated US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s secret trip to Beijing in 1971, its role remained unacknowledged for years.

This time, recognition came almost immediately, from both Washington and Tehran.

“Our effort this year is a continuation of the facilitation we undertook between the US and Iran in 2025,” Khan, the former envoy, said.

“But the stakes this time were very high. We did not want to see the richest bloc of the Muslim world decimated nor the world pushed towards a wider war.”

He added a note of caution.

“No relationships are, however, assured in perpetuity. Look at the Trump-Modi bonhomie in the first Trump administration and its unravelling now,” he said, referring to the warm friendship between the US president and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which appears to have cooled during Trump’s second term.

Even so, he argued, Pakistan has already secured a lasting gain.

“While ultimate success will depend on the outcome of the process, however, even at this preliminary stage, Pakistan has already carved a niche for itself in diplomatic chronicles,” Khan said.

TUI is opening its very first hotel in Bhutan next month.

Called TUI Blue Paro Taktsang, it will be nestled in the Himalayas and in a small village in Paro which is found west of the country’s capital, Thimphu.

Inside the hotel will be 32 suites, a restaurant, two bars, a ballroom, indoor swimming pool, spa and gym – all decorated with traditionally Bhutanese design.

Rooms will have incredible views of the mountains and nearby waterfront.

The first-look images also reveal a huge outdoor dining terrace.

The landlocked country between India and China is known for pretty temples, Himalayan mountains and being a very happy place to live.

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The hotel is near some major landmarks like Tiger’s Nest Monastery, whose official name is Paro Taktsang.

It’s a sacred Buddhist site which is perched 900metres high on a clifftop.

For any keen visitors, it’s only accessible by foot and a round-trip hike takes between five to six hours.

Another nearby site is the Kyichu Lhakhang Temple, which is the oldest temple in Bhutan; its main chapel has roots as far back as the 7th century.

It’s also considered one of the most beautiful temples in the country.

Nearby is Ugyen Pelri Thang Palace, which is the private residence and often used by the Queen Mother.

Tourists can’t go inside, but visitors can still take in its incredible architecture and gardens from the outside.

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Bellevue Club, Majorca

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Catty Cats Garden Hotel, Side, Turkey

This fun hotel has three swimming pools and several water slides to entertain the whole family. If zipping down slides wasn’t enough to tire out the children, they can enjoy the kids club and mini discos, whilst adults can unwind in the Turkish bath. Plus, the family rooms here feel more like an apartment, as they come with a handy kitchenette too – great for cooking up cheaper meal options.

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Htop Olympic, Costa Brava, Spain

This Calella hotel is the perfect base for a cheap and cheerful sun holiday, with comfy air-conditioned rooms just a few minutes’ walk from the bustling bars of Costa Brava. Make use of the hotel buffet stocked with plenty of family favourites like fresh salads, grilled meats and chips.

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Corona Roja Aparthotel, Gran Canaria

The Corona Roja Aparthotel sits on Gran Canaria‘s Playa del Ingles, one of the most popular beach resorts among Brits – and for good reason. Whether you’re the type to set off parasailing or prefer a sunset catamaran trip, there’s plenty on offer in this lively resort town.

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Bhutan itself is considered the ‘Land of Happiness’, but it won’t appear on any of the official Happiness Index.

Instead, Bhutan has goes by its own “Gross National Happiness Index” which focuses on factors like psychological well-being, health, education, good governance, ecology, time use, community vitality, culture and living standards. 

The philosophy was introduced in the 1970s to focus on wellbeing and environmental conservation which is valued more highly than things like economic growth.

Just last year, Bhutan revealed plans for its new international airport at Gelephu complete with forests and yoga lounges.

Its initial design plans reveal a building that represents a mountain range with huge gardens and an open-air forest splitting the terminal in half.

One side will operate domestic flights, the other, international.

Across the four zones will be yoga spaces, outdoor lounges and even meditation and sound bath areas.

The hope is that it will open in 2029.

The best time to visit Bhutan is between March and May or September to December when the weather is at its most mild, which can be up to highs of 25C.

The best time of the year to avoid is June to August as this marks monsoon season when it’s humid with high rainfall.

Currently there are no direct flights between the UK and Bhutan with the average journey length taking around 15 hours with at least one stop.

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And, one of the world’s cheapest holiday destinations with new Wizz Air flights has scrapped expensive entry rules.

Tehran says the negotiations will be based on its 10-point proposal, which calls for control over Strait of Hormuz and lifting of all sanctions.

Iran has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with the United States, with its National Security Council saying talks with Washington will begin in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, on Friday, based on Tehran’s 10-point proposal.

The statement on Wednesday came after US President Donald Trump said he was calling off a threat to end Iranian civilisation and “suspend” attacks on the country for two weeks.

Trump said the truce was contingent on Iran agreeing to the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea and through which a fifth of the global oil supply passes.

Iran’s partial blockade of the strait – imposed in the aftermath of the US and Israel’s attacks on February 28 – has disrupted global trade, driving up oil prices and causing fuel shortages across the world.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks have also reverberated across the Gulf and drawn in Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, both of which have launched attacks on Israel, significantly widening the conflict.

Trump said in his Truth Social statement that the US has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, “and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate”.

He said the US and Iran have agreed on “almost all of the various points of contention” and that the two-week period will allow the agreement to be “finalised and consummated”.

Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, speaking on behalf of the Iranian National Security Council, confirmed Tehran’s decision to halt the fighting.

“If attacks against Iran are halted, our powerful armed forces will cease their defensive operations,” he said in a post on X.

Araghchi said that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible in coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces, and that the decision was taken in light of Trump’s acceptance “of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations”.

For his part, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the warring sides had agreed to an “immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere”.

The move is “EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY”, he wrote on X.

Sharif thanked the US and Iran and extended an invitation to “their delegations to Islamabad on Friday, 10th April 2026, to further negotiate for a conclusive agreement to settle all disputes”.

According to Iran’s National Security Council, its 10-point proposal calls for Iranian dominance and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, which it said would grant it a “unique economic and geopolitical position”.

The proposal also calls for the withdrawal of all “US combat forces” from bases in the Middle East and a halt to military operations against allied armed groups across the region. It goes on to demand “full compensation” for war damages, as well as the lifting of all sanctions by the US, the United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The proposal also calls for the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad and the ratification of any final agreement in a binding UN Security Council resolution.

The council said that while Tehran has agreed to talks, it does so “with complete distrust of the American side”.

It said Iran will allocate two weeks for these negotiations and that the time period “can be extended by agreement of the parties”.

The council added that Iran stood ready to respond with “full force” as soon as “the slightest mistake by the enemy is made”.

There has been no comment from Israel.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif says diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Israeli war on Iran are ‘progressing steadily’ as he urged US President Donald Trump to postpone his threatened deadline for two weeks. Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid explains Islamabad’s ‘last-ditch effort’.

Kabul’s foreign minister expresses hope that minor interpretations will not hinder progress.

Afghanistan has said that peace talks with Pakistan being held in China have been “useful”.

The comment was issued by the foreign ministry in Kabul amid talks aimed at halting cross-border fighting between the two neighbours, which were launched last week following an invitation by China.

The peace process in the western Chinese city of Urumqi is an effort to stop the conflict that began in February, which has seen hundreds killed and perturbed Beijing, which is sensitive to the violence close to its western regions.

Pakistan, which declared it was in “open war” with its neighbour, has carried out air strikes inside Afghanistan, including in the capital, Kabul.

The United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Afghanistan posted on X on Tuesday that the conflict had displaced 94,000 people overall, while 100,000 people in two Afghan districts near the border have been completely cut off by the fighting since February.

The conflict has alarmed the international community, particularly as the area is one where other armed groups, including al-Qaeda and the ISIL (ISIS) group, still have a presence.

Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesman Zia Ahmad Takal said Afghanistan’s acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met China’s ambassador to Afghanistan on Tuesday, and thanked Beijing for arranging and hosting the talks, while also crediting Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates for their mediation efforts.

“Noting that constructive discussions have taken place so far, FM Muttaqi expressed hope that minor interpretations would not hinder the progress of the negotiations,” Takal wrote.

Separately, Muttaqi said that “useful discussions have taken place”.

There have been few official statements regarding the discussions since they began on April 1 between mid-level delegations from the two sides.

Accusations

Even as the talks have been taking place, Afghanistan has accused Pakistan of carrying out shelling across its border on several occasions, killing and wounding civilians.

Pakistan has not commented. Islamabad often accuses Afghanistan of providing a safe haven to armed groups that carry out attacks, especially the Pakistan Taliban, known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP.

The group is separate from but allied with the Afghan Taliban, which took over Afghanistan in 2021 following the chaotic withdrawal of US-led troops. Kabul denies the charge.

The recent fighting, the most severe between the two neighbours, began after Pakistan carried out air strikes aimed at such groups. Afghanistan then launched cross-border attacks in response.

The clashes disrupted a ceasefire brokered by Qatar in October, after earlier fighting had killed dozens of soldiers, civilians, and suspected fighters.

On March 17, a Pakistani air strike hit a drug-treatment centre in Kabul, which Afghan officials claimed killed more than 400 people.

Pakistan denied it had targeted civilians, saying its strikes were against military facilities.

Iran has proposed a 10-point peace plan to end the war as the United States and Israel intensify their attacks on Tehran and a deadline looms that was set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, whose near-closure has triggered a global energy crisis.

At the White House on Monday, Trump called the 10-point plan a “significant step” but “not good enough”.

Iran’s top university and a major petrochemical plant were hit on Monday after Trump threatened to target power plants and bridges until Tehran agreed to end the war and open the strait, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass.

Here is more about Iran’s 10-point plan and Trump’s response to it:

What is Iran’s 10-point plan?

On Monday, Pakistan, which has mediated talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the war, put forth a 45-day ceasefire proposal after separate meetings with US and Iranian officials. The Iranian and US negotiators have not met face to face about the 45‑day truce plan. In late March, Trump told reporters that his envoys were talking to a senior Iranian official, but this was not confirmed by Iran. Tehran has denied holding talks with US negotiators.

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency said Tehran had conveyed its response via Islamabad. Iran reportedly rejected the proposed ceasefire, putting forward instead a call for a permanent end to the hostilities.

The Iranian proposal consisted of 10 clauses, including an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions and reconstruction, IRNA reported. The conflict has spread to the Gulf region and Lebanon, where 1.2 million Lebanese people have been displaced due to Israeli attacks.

Details about the 10 clauses have not been published.

How did the White House respond?

Speaking to reporters about Iran’s plan, Trump said: “They made a … significant proposal. Not good enough, but they have made a very significant step. We will see what happens.”

“If they don’t make a deal, they will have no bridges and no power plants,” he added.

In a profane Truth Social post on Sunday, Trump threatened to attack Iran’s civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F****** Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote.

The deadline is set for 8pm Washington time on Tuesday (00:00 GMT). Tehran has rejected this ultimatum and threatened to retaliate.

Human rights organisations and members of the US Congress have criticised Trump for threatening to attack civilian targets, which is considered a war crime.

The Axios news website reported that an unnamed US official who saw the Iranian response called it “maximalist”.

What other proposals have been on the table?

The last time the word “maximalist” was used to describe a peace plan in this war was late last month when Iran called a US plan “maximalist”.

An unnamed, high-ranking diplomatic source told Al Jazeera on March 25 that Iran had received a 15-point plan drafted by the US. The plan was delivered to Iran through Pakistan.

The source said Tehran described the US proposal as “extremely maximalist and unreasonable”.

“It is not beautiful, even on paper,” the source said, calling the plan deceptive and misleading in its presentation.

The 15-point plan included a 30-day ceasefire, the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities, limits on Iran’s missiles and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In return, the US would remove all sanctions imposed on Iran and provide support for electricity generation at Iran’s Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire, arguing it would give the US and Israel time to regroup and launch further attacks. Tehran has pointed to Israel’s 12-day war on Iran in June. The US joined that conflict for one day, hitting Iran’s three main nuclear sites with air strikes. Trump claimed at the time that the US had destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities but months later justified the current war by saying Iran posed an imminent threat.

The UN nuclear watchdog, however, said Iran was not in a position to make a nuclear bomb.

The US and Israel launched the war on February 28 as Washington was holding negotiations with Iran. On the eve of the war, Oman, the mediator of the talks, had said a deal was “within reach”.

Tehran has said for years that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes and it does not intend to create nuclear weapons. It even signed a deal with the US in 2015 to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. But Trump withdrew from the landmark deal in 2018 and slapped sanctions back on Iran.

In response, Iran decided to enrich uranium from 3.6 percent, which was allowed under the 2015 deal, to almost 60 percent after its Natanz nuclear facility was bombed in 2021. Iran blamed Israel. A 90 percent level of purity is required to make an atomic bomb.

Why does this matter?

With Tuesday’s deadline fast approaching, chances for a ceasefire appear remote as the two sides remain far from agreement and the conflict is now in its second month.

On Tuesday, Reza Amiri Moghadam, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, posted on X: “Pakistan positive and productive endeavours in Good Will and Good Office to stop the war is approaching a critical, sensitive stage …”

“Stay Tuned for more”.

Arrest comes after Roberts-Smith lost case against journalists who said he was involved in murders of unarmed Afghan men.

Former Australian special forces soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has been arrested at Sydney airport and is expected to face charges for alleged war crimes committed in Afghanistan, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).

The 47-year-old was expected to appear in a court in New South Wales later on Tuesday over five counts of the war crime of murder, related to unarmed Afghan nationals who “were not taking part in hostilities at the time of their alleged murder”, Australian Federal Police Commissioner Krissy Barrett told reporters in Sydney on Tuesday, according to the ABC.

Barrett said the charges followed a “complex” investigation by the AFP news agency and the Office of the Special Investigator (OSI) dating back to 2021.

The arrest comes after Roberts-Smith lost defamation proceedings he brought against journalists who had reported he was “complicit in and responsible for the murder” of three Afghan men.

An Australian judge found in 2023 that those journalists had not defamed Roberts-Smith, a ruling that was upheld by the Full Court of the Federal Court of Australia in May last year.

Rawan Arraf, the executive director of the Australian Centre for International Justice, said the arrest was a “significant and long-awaited step for victims and affected communities” in Afghanistan, where Roberts-Smith was deployed multiple times.

“The proper investigation and prosecution of alleged war crimes by members of the Australian special forces in Afghanistan are essential to ensuring justice for Afghan victims and to Australia meeting its obligations under international law,” Arraf said in a statement.

About 39,000 Australian soldiers were deployed to Afghanistan as part of the United States and NATO-led operations against the Taliban and other armed groups over two decades.

Roberts-Smith’s case has drawn considerable scrutiny in Australia, including because prior to the charges, he had received the Victoria Cross medal for his fifth tour of Afghanistan, and was reportedly the most-decorated living Australian war veteran.

Meanwhile, former Australian army lawyer David McBride remains imprisoned in Australia over his role in revealing information about alleged Australian war crimes in Afghanistan.

Australian Senator David Shoebridge responded to the news of Roberts-Smith’s arrest by saying “Release David McBride” in a short post on X.

Seoul says Pyongyang has not been supplying Iran with weapons in the hopes of being able to reopen diplomatic dialogue with the US.

North Korea appears to be distancing itself from longtime partner Iran in the hopes of forming a new relationship with the United States, South Korean intelligence believes.

Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) sees no signs that North Korea has sent weapons or supplies to Tehran since the US-Israel war on Iran began at the end of February, lawmaker Park Sun-won, who attended a closed-door briefing held by the NIS, said on Sunday.

While Iran’s other allies China and Russia have frequently issued statements on the US-Israel war on Iran, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry has only issued two toned-down statements so far, said the NIS.

While Pyongyang did condemn the US and Israeli attacks on Iran as illegal, it did not issue public condolences after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death or send a congratulatory message when Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, succeeded him.

The spy agency said Pyongyang is likely adopting this cautious approach to position it for a new diplomatic chapter with the US once the Middle East conflict subsides, said Park.

The NIS also told lawmakers that it now believes Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is grooming his teenage daughter as his successor, citing a recent public display of her driving a tank.

The NIS said the imagery was intended to highlight the supposed military aptitude of the youngster, who is believed to be around 13 and named Ju Ae.

Such scenes are intended to pay “homage” to Kim’s own public military appearances during the early 2010s, when he was being prepared to succeed his father, Park said.

Kim’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, was earlier thought to be a leading candidate to succeed her brother.

On Monday, she was in North Korean headlines as she welcomed an apology issued by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Sunday over a January drone incursion.

“The ROK [Republic of Korea] president personally expressed regret and talked about a measure for preventing recurrence. Our government appreciated it as very fortunate and wise behaviour for its own sake,” Kim Yo Jong said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

Seoul initially denied any official role in the January drone incursion, with authorities suggesting it was the work of civilians, but Lee said a probe had revealed government officials had been involved.

“We express regret to the North over the unnecessary military tensions caused by the irresponsible and reckless actions of some individuals,” Lee said.

Lee has sought to repair ties with North Korea since taking office last year, criticising his predecessor for allegedly sending drones to scatter propaganda over Pyongyang.

His repeated overtures, however, have gone unanswered by the North until now.

Lee’s expression of regret follows Kim’s labelling of Seoul as the “most hostile state” in a policy address in March in which he vowed to “thoroughly reject and disregard it”.

Pakistan has proposed a two-stage plan to end the US-Israel war on Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides now mulling the framework, a source has told the Reuters news agency.

Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Monday acknowledged diplomatic efforts by Pakistan, which has shared a plan with Iran and the United States to end hostilities, according to Reuters.

Baghaei added that Iran is focused on its security amid the latest attacks from the US and Israel.

A top university in Tehran and the South Pars Petrochemical Plant in Asaluyeh were bombed on Monday, killing at least 34 people in Iran.

Axios first reported on Sunday that the US, Iran and regional mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire as part of a “two-phased deal” that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing US, Israeli and regional sources.

The source told Reuters that Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in contact “all night long” with US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

“All elements need to be agreed today,” the source said, adding the initial understanding would be structured as a memorandum of understanding finalised electronically through Pakistan, the sole communication channel in the talks.

Under the proposal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15 to 20 days given to finalise a broader settlement.

The deal, tentatively dubbed the “Islamabad Accord”, would include a regional framework for the strait, with final in-person talks in the capital of Pakistan.

The final agreement is expected to include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, the source said.

‘No reopening of Hormuz’

Tehran has responded by stating that it will not reopen the strait as part of a temporary ceasefire, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, adding that it will not accept deadlines as it reviews the proposal. Washington also lacks the readiness for a permanent ceasefire, the official said.

The US has not yet responded to Pakistan’s plan.

“Pakistan officials tell me that Islamabad is involved in ‘frantic diplomacy’, as they put it,” said Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid.

“The problem they’re facing, as one official put it, is essentially that it’s a schoolboy brawl that they are dealing with. It is egos that they have to manage, and it is also a sea of distrust over which they have to build bridges.”

One source told Javaid that Pakistan is speaking to Iran’s clergy, diplomats, and military commanders, but the level of distrust is still high.

“You heard the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman mention that they have come under attack multiple times by the US and Israel. And then, if there is some sort of rapprochement, if there is some sort of agreement, what are the guarantees that their leaders are not going to be targeted?” said Javaid.

US’s 15-point plan ‘illogical’, says Tehran

Baghaei, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said on Monday that Tehran would never accept a 15-point plan put forward by the US last month. He stated that Tehran had finalised its demands amid recent proposals to end the war, but would reveal them only when appropriate.

He stressed that Iran would not bow to pressure, the IRNA news agency reported.

“A few days ago, they put forward proposals through intermediaries, and the 15-point US plan was reflected through Pakistan and some other friendly countries,” Baghaei said. “Such proposals are both extremely ambitious, unusual, and illogical.”

Baghaei underlined that Iran has its own framework.

“Based on our own interests, based on our own considerations, we codified the set of demands that we had and have,” he said.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman also rejected the idea that engaging with mediators signals weakness.

The latest diplomatic push by Pakistan comes amid escalating hostilities that have raised concerns over disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global fuel supplies. More than 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas passes through the waterway, which remains under a de facto Iranian blockade.

Trump, in an expletive-laden post on Sunday, threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday that would reopen the strait.

More than 2,000 people have been killed in Iran since the war began on February 28, according to Iranian authorities.

Israel has also invaded southern Lebanon and struck Beirut, where Lebanese authorities say 1,461 people, including at least 124 children, have been killed. More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced.

Assam, India – Amoiya Medhi says attending an election rally organised by the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in her hometown in India’s northeastern state of Assam is a matter of both religious compulsion and personal gratitude.

On March 29, Medhi was among thousands of men and women who thronged the rally held on the outskirts of Jagiroad, an industrial town in central Assam’s Morigaon district, ahead of the state assembly election scheduled on Thursday.

Nitin Nabin, the BJP’s national president and chief guest at the event, trumpeted the welfare schemes launched by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s government – schemes that Nabin claimed benefitted the Assamese people, especially women.

Medhi, 38, nodded in agreement as she listened attentively to the speeches. “This government has done so much for everyone, including women,” she told Al Jazeera. “I am going to only vote for the BJP.”

Like Medhi, dozens of women attending the rally said they were the beneficiaries of multiple government schemes, including Orunodoi, a direct benefit transfer scheme that saw nearly four million women receive 9,000 rupees each on March 10 – the largest such disbursement in the state’s history, which included a three-month bonus to mark the Bihu festival held in April.

The disbursement came barely a month before Thursday’s vote in which Sarma, 57, is seeking a third consecutive term for his party.

Since becoming the chief minister in 2021, Sarma has been accused of pursuing a hardline Hindu supremacist agenda (popularly known as “Hindutva”) coupled with a xenophobic campaign targeting Muslims. They constitute 34 percent of Assam’s 31 million population, according to the last census conducted in 2011. That’s the highest among Indian states, with only the federally-governed territories of Indian-administered Kashmir and Lakshadweep higher.

An overwhelming nine million of Assam’s 10.3 million Muslims speak Bengali and not Assamese. They historically migrated to Assam in waves – a majority of them moving during British rule, when Bengali-speaking Hindu and Muslim communities moved from East Bengal (now Bangladesh) to work in Assam’s tea estates and rice fields.

‘Protecting our Hindu identity’

For decades, the BJP and other Hindu groups have labelled the Bengali-speaking Muslims as “foreigners”, accusing them of being undocumented immigrants from Bangladesh. Assam founded special tribunals to try these Muslims, sending hundreds to detention centres built across the state.

Thousands of “miya”, as Bengali-speaking Muslims in Assam are pejoratively called, have also been declared “doubtful” voters. The “miya” issue has shaped the BJP’s politics in Assam. Leading the charge against them, Sarma himself publicly admitted that he had instructed BJP workers to file an objection with the Election Commission of India to remove half a million Bengali-speaking Muslims from electoral rolls.

In 2024, Sarma told the state assembly that his government “will take sides” and “will not let miya Muslims take over all of Assam”. Two months ago, a 17-second artificial intelligence-generated video, produced and shared by the BJP on X, showed Sarma holding a rifle and shooting at pictures of two Muslim men, with the caption saying: “No Mercy”. The clip, titled ‘Point Blank Shot’, was deleted after outrage.

Champa Hira, another woman attending the Morigaon rally, said while the BJP’s financial aid and other welfare schemes have been a major draw, her support for the party goes beyond financial benefits.

“For us, it is also about protecting our Hindu identity,” she told Al Jazeera.

“Our Hindu religion is born out of the lotus,” Hira said, referring to the BJP’s election symbol. “We will let the lotus bloom once again for such schemes and also for our Hindu identities.”

In the run-up to the polls, the BJP’s political messaging on roadside billboards, wall graffiti and posters had the party showcase its anti-Muslim policies pursued in the past decade.

The party boasts about clearing around 20,000 hectares of government land – an area more than three-and-a-half-times the size of Manhattan – from the “osinaki manuh” (“strange people” – a veiled reference to Bengali-speaking Muslims). The eviction drives, which intensified after Sarma became the chief minister in 2021, are a part of the BJP’s “war” on Bengali-speaking Muslims to “reclaim every inch of land” allegedly encroached by them. Without providing evidence, Sarma has repeatedly accused the Bengali-speaking Muslims of a conspiracy to change Assam’s demography and reduce Hindus to a minority. The government’s crackdown also saw dozens of Muslims “pushed back” to Bangladesh – their alleged homeland – or their properties bulldozed.

Alongside such hardline policies targeting Muslims, the BJP also touted the launching of various welfare schemes for women and youth. And has promised an increase in financial aid from $13 to over $32 in the Orunodoi cash transfer scheme. In the Udyamita scheme, an entrepreneurial fund reserved for rural women to bootstrap their businesses, the increase is from $107 to $269.

Akhil Ranjan Dutta, who teaches political science at Assam’s Gauhati University, says the Hindu nationalist party is using a strategy that mixes “heightened polarisation and a developmental pitch” to woo the Assamese voters.

“To me, it is a cocktail of Hindutva and welfarism,” Dutta told Al Jazeera. “The BJP is experimenting with a brand of Hindutva by co-opting Indigenous armed struggle and cultural nationalism, while solidifying Hindu identity and othering the Bengali Muslims.”

The Bengali-speaking Muslims say the BJP’s election promises have heightened their anxiety. In its manifesto, the party has promised more crackdowns on the community, including a proposal to implement a Uniform Civil Code, which, according to critics, will override Muslim personal laws on marriage, divorce and inheritance.

The Uniform Civil Code, a longstanding demand from Hindu groups, is already in place in two BJP-ruled states, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat. The BJP has also promised a pushback against “Love Jihad”, an unproven conspiracy theory floated by right-wing Hindu groups, under which Muslim men allegedly lure Hindu women into marriage and convert them to Islam.

A former Assamese parliamentarian from the main opposition Congress party, who requested anonymity fearing reprisal from the government, agreed with political scientist Dutta. “The BJP has managed to turn Hindus against Muslims and enjoy support,” he added.

BJP spokesman in Assam, Kishore Upadhyay, rejected the allegation, claiming the government’s eviction drives were not targeted at any community.

“It is directed only against illegal encroachment, irrespective of religion or identity. Unfortunately, successive Congress governments in the past allowed or even facilitated such illegal settlements, creating today’s challenges,” he told Al Jazeera.

“It is also important to highlight that this is about restoring land rights of indigenous and tribal communities, protecting forest areas and ensuring proper land governance.”

Will welfare schemes help BJP?

Opposition parties and analysts say the BJP is mainly milking two cash transfer schemes – Orunodoi and Udyamita – to influence voters in this election.

In December 2025 and January this year, the government distributed cheques of $107 each under the Udyamita scheme. Additionally, it withheld a monthly honorarium of $13 for poor women under the Orunodoi scheme for three months, but handed it out last month in the run-up to the election.

Isfaqur Rahman of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) said the Sarma government’s disbursement of cash only days before the polls will help it in securing significant numbers of female votes. “If cash is disbursed to them on the eve of the election after making the beneficiaries wait, it will help influence their choice to vote,” Rahman told Al Jazeera. “This is nothing more than vote buying by the BJP.”

Economist Joydeep Baruah agreed, saying that distributing a lump sum of money will “bear a positive political result for the ruling party”, as he estimated that that at least 10 to 15 percent of the scheme’s four million women beneficiaries could vote for the BJP.

“While the rural wages in Assam have been stagnant due to a growing unemployment, the Orunodoi financial aid converts into 10-15 percent of their monthly income,” said Baruah, who teaches economics at state-run Krishna Kanta Handiqui State Open University in Assam’s main city of Guwahati.

Baruah said such populist schemes help in sustaining pro-incumbency.

“That way, the BJP is establishing more of a patron-client relationship, with patrons being the BJP and the clients being the beneficiaries,” he told Al Jazeera. “Such a transactional relationship materialises on the ground.”

Dipika Baruah, a 34-year-old woman in Kathiatoli town in central Assam’s Nagaon district – who is not related to economist Baruah – said the government grants empowered her to live with dignity.

“The money helped me keep the flame in my stove going,” she told Al Jazeera as she shopped at Mama Bazar, a marketplace named after Sarma, who is fondly called “mama” (maternal uncle in Assamese and Bengali) by his supporters. “This was possible because of mama. Women will only vote for Mama.”

Pre-poll surveys in Assam also suggest that cash transfer schemes will help the BJP consolidate votes in its favour.

An opinion poll conducted by political research firm, Vote Vibe, revealed that 54 percent of respondents believe the government’s cash transfer schemes will consolidate and even attract opposition voters. The survey also showed 38 percent of female respondents saying the schemes had strengthened the BJP’s voter base, while 21 percent of females said the schemes will poach opposition votes.

BJP spokesman Upadhyay told Al Jazeera the allegations of influencing voters by transferring cash before the election are “factually incorrect and politically motivated”.

“It [Orunodoi] is a long-standing welfare initiative aimed at supporting economically vulnerable women-led households, not a last-minute electoral measure,” he told Al Jazeera.

‘Kill us all at once’

Back at the BJP rally in Morigaon, where its leaders delivered fiery speeches calling for the expulsion of “infiltrators from Bangladesh”, Amir Ali remembered his sister Afsana.

On February 18, 1983, one-year-old Afsana was among an estimated 1,800 Bengali-speaking Muslims massacred by a Hindu and Indigenous mob in what came to be known as the Nellie massacre. The killings were in 14 villages, including Ali’s Matiparbat, a 40-minute drive from where the BJP rally was held.

Ali, now in his 50s, said he attended the BJP rally only to prove that he is not an “illegal immigrant” but a citizen of the state.

“When children were massacred, we had no choice but to vote to prove that we are not illegal Bangladeshis,” he told Al Jazeera. “Likewise, we have no choice now but to prove we are not infiltrators or ‘strangers’ as Sarma claims.”

In a quaint corner of Jagiroad town, Noorjamal shares Ali’s sentiments. Two years ago, he was rendered homeless after the houses of nearly 8,000 Muslims were bulldozed during a government eviction drive.

“The chief minister says he is evicting Bangladeshis from government land, but how are we Bangladeshis if my father and forefathers were born and died in India?” Noorjamal’s mother Maherbanu Nessa asked.

“The way Himanta ‘mama’ is bulldozing our homes, he might as well just kill us all at once.”

In a communication sent to India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva, the United Nations Committee on Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) said on January 19 this year that Bengali-speaking Muslims in Assam are facing racial discrimination, resulting in forced evictions, hate speech and excessive use of force by the law-enforcement agencies.

An investigation by The New Humanitarian, an independent news outlet, published on March 24 found that between May 2021, when Sarma became Assam’s chief minister, and early 2026, more than 22,000 structures were demolished and 20,380 families evicted in the state, an overwhelming majority of them being Bengali-speaking Muslims.

As Sarma’s BJP vows to “break the backbone of miyas” after the election, Ali and Nessa worry about survival amid such hostilities.

“We have nothing to resist this cruel government but prayers and our votes,” Ali told Al Jazeera. “But maybe, if not today, then someday we will find peace in this land. We are still hopeful.”

The rise is largely symbolic as some key members are unable to raise ​production amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to increase oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a rise that is largely symbolic as some of its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of ⁠February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iraq.

In a statement on Sunday, eight members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to increase May quotas during a virtual meeting.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability,” the statement read.

“The eight countries also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability,” it added.

While the quota increase represents less than two percent of the supply disrupted by the closure of the strait, OPEC+ sources told the Reuters news agency that the pledge had signalled readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high amid the war, close to $120 a barrel, leading to higher prices for transport fuels.

On Thursday, JPMorgan said oil prices could spike above $150, an all-time high, if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May.

May’s increase is the same as the eight members had agreed on for April at their last meeting on March 1. But amid the war, oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as much as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15 percent of global supply.

With the strait still closed, Iran has allowed some countries in the region to use the waterway.

Iran has said Iraq was exempt from any transit restrictions through the strait, with shipping data on Sunday showing a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the waterway.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday that deputy foreign minister-level talks were being held with Iran to discuss ⁠⁠options to ensure the smooth transit of vessels through the Strait ‌‌of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump threatened to escalate attacks and target Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Monday.

Soon after the war between the US, Israel and Iran began, its ripple effects were evident.

Pakistan stands out as one of the countries paying a heavy price.

It’s heavily dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf.

And with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, the government increased the fuel price twice in a month.

The increases triggered mass protests, with people furious at the government’s decision to pass on the burden of higher costs.

Why is Pakistan more vulnerable to the current crisis than other countries?

Presenter: Rishaad Salamat

Guests:

Kaiser Bengali – Economist and former head of the Chief Minister’s Policy Reform Unit for Balochistan

Michael Kugelman – Senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council

Ali Salman – Founder and CEO of the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy

Islamabad, Pakistan – At the start of this year, Pakistan had more imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) than it could use. Demand had been falling for three straight years, from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025, as cheap solar panels flooded the market and factories cut back.

The government quietly sold excess gas shipments to other countries and shut down domestic gas wells to prevent pipelines from bursting under the pressure of oversupply. Gas that could not be diverted would be pushed into household networks at a financial loss, adding billions to an already crippling debt pile in the energy sector.

Then the war came. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched hundreds of strikes against Iran in an operation named Epic Fury. The strikes targeted Iranian missiles, air defences, military infrastructure and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening assault.

Iran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles and drones across the region, and as a result, traffic passing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, almost came to a halt.

The energy consequences were immediate. As a part of its retaliation against US-Israeli attacks, on March 2, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s gas facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export complex.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the United States, halted all production and declared force majeure, a legal term meaning it was released from delivery obligations due to circumstances beyond its control.

The conflict escalated further on March 18, when Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest in the world, off Iran’s southern coast.

South Pars and Qatar’s North Field sit above the same underground reservoir, meaning the attack threatened both countries’ gas production simultaneously. Iran struck Ras Laffan again in retaliation.

QatarEnergy said that the hit had forced it to cut LNG production by 17 percent, with repairs expected to take up to five years.

Brent crude, the industry benchmark, was priced at more than $109 a barrel on Thursday,

Oil prices on Thursday climbed to $109 a barrel, while European gas prices jumped 6 percent in a single trading session.

For Pakistan, which secures nearly all its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and holds no emergency reserves, the shift from surplus to shortage happened almost overnight.

A system built on imports

Pakistan meets its daily gas needs from three main sources. The bulk, about 2,700 million cubic feet per day, comes from domestic gas fields that have been in slow decline for years.

The rest comes from imported LNG, supplied by Qatar under long-term contracts, adding roughly 600 million cubic feet per day when shipments flow normally.

The third source is bottled LPG, used mainly by households in rural areas not connected to the pipeline network. Pakistan gets more than 60 percent of its LPG from Iran, a supply also disrupted by the conflict.

Pakistan began importing LNG in 2015 when domestic production could no longer meet demand. Today, imported LNG powers roughly a quarter of the country’s electricity, with the power sector its largest consumer.

Qatar and the UAE together account for 99 percent of Pakistan’s LNG imports, according to energy analytics firm Kpler.

Of that, Pakistan’s LNG supply is dominated by two long-term government-to-government agreements with Qatar, one spanning 15 years and the other 10. Together, they cover nine shipments a month.

From glut to scarcity

Monthly cargo data from Pakistan’s energy regulator, OGRA, reflects the impact of the war. The country received between eight and 12 LNG shipments a month through 2025 and into early 2026, with 12 arriving in January alone. In March, the month the war began, only two shipments arrived.

Prices have been affected too. According to data compiled by researcher Manzoor Ahmed of the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), on February 13, state-owned entities Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited procured eight combined cargoes at an average cost of $10.47 per MMBtu, totalling $257.1m.

MMBtu is the standard international unit used to measure and price natural gas and LNG.

By March 12, the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu, a 19 percent increase in a month, reflecting tightening global conditions even before the war’s full impact.

Pakistan had already been consuming less gas. Its share of Asian LNG markets fell from roughly 30 percent in 2020 to about 18 percent in 2025, driven largely by the rapid expansion of solar power. Millions of Pakistanis, frustrated by high electricity costs and frequent blackouts, have installed rooftop panels in recent years.

By 2025, the country had 34 gigawatts of solar capacity, with an estimated 25 gigawatts feeding into the national grid. Overall electricity demand from the grid fell nearly 11 percent between 2022 and 2025.

Gas-fired power plants built to run on imported LNG were left underutilised, especially during daylight hours.

“Of course, solarisation helps manage daytime demand, reducing the need for running thermal power plants,” said Haneea Isaad, an energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), who has tracked Pakistan’s gas sector for years.

But the contracts with overseas gas suppliers still needed to be adhered to — so Pakistan kept buying and paying, she told Al Jazeera.

Ahmed of PRIED pointed to two compounding challenges. First, the nature of Pakistan’s gas supply contracts were such that the government had to “buy LNG even when demand collapsed,” he told Al Jazeera.

Second, “rapid solar growth and suppressed grid demand were underestimated, and their effect on overall planning was not accounted for,” the Islamabad-based analyst added.

LNG consumption dropped by 1.21 million tonnes in 2025 alone. With no large storage capacity, surplus gas was pushed into domestic pipelines at a loss.

The resulting circular debt in the gas sector now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees, approximately $11bn. By January, Islamabad was negotiating to offload 177 unwanted gas shipments projected through 2031, a liability of $5.6bn.

Isaad of IEEFA said the surplus was predictable.

“Pakistan’s energy planning has mostly been bound by long-term contracts with very little flexibility,” she said. Once considered necessary for energy security, these rigid contracts, she added, have become a financial albatross in a market increasingly prioritising flexibility and low-cost generation.

She described the government’s pre-war response, diverting excess cargoes, as “reactive crisis management” that prioritised short-term fixes over better forecasting and procurement flexibility.

Supply shock

Qatar’s LNG shipments to Pakistan have stopped almost completely since March 2. Of the eight shipments scheduled that month, only two arrived. The six expected in April are unlikely to reach the country.

At a public hearing of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, Central Power Purchasing Agency chief executive Rehan Akhtar said LNG supplies were under force majeure, though coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia remained unaffected.

Officials have warned of near-zero LNG availability in the coming months, even if the war ends quickly. LNG accounts for more than 21 percent of Pakistan’s power generation.

“With Pakistan’s LNG supply completely halted after Qatar’s declaration of force majeure, LNG plants are effectively out of the running order,” Isaad said.

The government has responded by restoring domestic gas production that had been deliberately curtailed during the surplus period.

Isaad said Pakistan had been holding back roughly 350 to 400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas to accommodate LNG imports.

“There will also be the option to rely on other power generation sources such as imported coal and hydropower,” she added. But, she warned, “even with hydropower, imported coal and restored domestic gas production covering some of the gaps left by LNG, there might still be an energy shortage.”

For now, mild weather and increased solar output have provided temporary relief.

“So far, Pakistan has somehow miraculously survived any prolonged energy shortages in the power sector through a combination of mild weather and a pre-existing reduced reliance on imported LNG,” Isaad said. “But peak summer months may be a different story.”

Summer pressure

With an energy crisis looming, Pakistan is bracing for a few hours of daily planned power cuts this summer, alongside other energy conservation measures and higher electricity costs.

According to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s State of Industry Report 2025, peak electricity demand last summer exceeded 33,000 megawatts.

Winter demand currently stands at about 15,000 megawatts, partly because solar panels now generate between 9,000 and 10,000 megawatts daily, reducing reliance on the grid.

Furnace oil, the main backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit, about $0.12, and its price has more than doubled since the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Analysts say the burden will fall unevenly. Consumers reliant on grid electricity will face both higher bills and outages, while industries dependent on gas will see production disruptions. Those with rooftop solar and battery storage will be best insulated.

Isaad is blunt about the options before Pakistan. “Returning to the spot market might not be feasible, given the dire financial consequences,” she said. “Even if it does, competition with wealthier nations may once again price Pakistan out. Furnace oil could be another option, but that will be prohibitively expensive to run.

“The only option the government may be left with is load-shedding [planned power blackouts], probably around two to three hours daily.”

Fuel shocks from the US-Israel war on Iran are rippling worldwide, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions push prices higher. From Nigeria to Vietnam and India, workers face soaring costs, longer hours and lost jobs amid a deepening global energy crisis.

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan intends to continue to nudge the United States and Iran towards negotiations aimed at ending their war, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledges “obstacles” in its efforts.

Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi did not specify the roadblocks on the path to peace that he was referring to. But his comments, made during a weekly media briefing in Islamabad, came hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” if it did not accept Washington’s terms for a peace deal.

Pakistan has been leading a multination effort to facilitate negotiations between the US and Iran.

“Despite challenges and obstacles, Pakistan will continue its efforts to promote facilitation and dialogue,” Andrabi said. He added that Islamabad was working to create conditions for “meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders”.

He said the US and Iran had confidence in Pakistan’s role as a neutral intermediary.

In a sign of that confidence, Iran has allowed 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Andrabi called it “a harbinger of peace” and a positive step for regional stability.

He did not confirm whether any Pakistani ship had so far sailed through the strait.

The Hormuz route has been largely blocked since Iran began restricting oil and gas shipments following the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on February 28. The disruption has driven up energy prices and triggered widespread economic strain.

Andrabi also pointed to sustained high-level contact between Islamabad and Tehran. He cited a March 28 call in which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, stressing the need to “build trust in order to facilitate talks and mediation” and praising Pakistan for its “supportive role for peace”.

Regional diplomacy

The briefing came just a day after Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar returned from Beijing, where he met China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The visit produced a joint five-point initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, urgent diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation, and the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Andrabi said the Chinese-Pakistani plan had since been shared with Iran, the US and other stakeholders, receiving appreciation “across the region and beyond”.

He added that the proposals were consistent with the outcome of the four-nation ministerial meeting held in Islamabad the previous weekend — the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt joined Dar for those talks.

Dar travelled to Beijing despite medical advice to rest after sustaining a hairline fracture during the Islamabad talks, a move Andrabi said reflected the importance Pakistan places on its ties with China. “The Chinese side expressed deep appreciation, conveying that China and Pakistan are strategic cooperative partners,” he said.

The Islamabad meeting between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt was the second such gathering in a coordinated regional push to de-escalate tensions. The first was held in Riyadh on March 19.

Following those talks, Dar said Pakistan was prepared to host direct US-Iran negotiations “in the coming days”.

“Pakistan will be honoured to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides for a comprehensive and lasting settlement,” he said on March 30.

At Thursday’s briefing, Andrabi reiterated that offer, confirming Pakistan had formally “offered to host and facilitate negotiations as part of its broader diplomatic outreach”.

He said the next phase of efforts would focus on securing “meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders”.

He appeared to acknowledge that Iran — which has so far denied any direct negotiations with the US and has insisted that the mediation is limited to messages being passed between Tehran and Washington by Islamabad — was not fully on board with the efforts to push the warring nations towards talks.

“Iran, as a sovereign country, determines its own policies,” Andrabi said.

Afghanistan breakthrough?

Separately, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed sending a delegation of senior officials to the northwestern Chinese city of Urumqi for talks with Afghanistan. It is the first substantive contact since Islamabad launched cross-border strikes in late February.

The Urumqi meeting on Wednesday focused on exchanging views on the current escalation, Andrabi said.

“Our participation is a reiteration of our core concerns,” he said. “The burden of real process, however, lies with Afghanistan, which must demonstrate visible and verifiable actions against terrorist groups using Afghan soil against Pakistan.”

Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil-Haq on the night of February 26, targeting what it described as sanctuaries of “terrorists” in Afghanistan, following what it called unprovoked fire from across the border by Afghan Taliban forces.

After a five-day pause from March 18 to 23 for Eid-ul-Fitr, partly in response to de-escalation requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye, Andrabi confirmed the operation was continuing.

“There has been no change in Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, and operations are continuing,” he said.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban administration in Kabul of enabling groups such as Pakistan Taliban, known by the acronym TTP, which have repeatedly launched deadly attacks inside Pakistan, to operate from Afghan soil. Kabul denies those allegations.

Islamabad says its concerns remain unaddressed, and violence has surged since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

China has also played a role in facilitating engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, including meetings in Beijing in May and in Kabul in August.

Gurdaspur, Punjab, India – Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year.

Standing at the edge of his wheat field in northwest Punjab’s Gurdaspur, he runs through the numbers in his head, totting up fertiliser costs, expected yield, and market prices.

Then he shifts to more personal concerns: School fees, household expenses, loan repayments and the money he has been saving for his daughter Varsha’s wedding.

“I don’t know if we can afford it this year,” he says. “Everything depends on the crop.”

The uncertainty has crept in quietly.

Fertiliser, once a fairly predictable staple in farming, has become more expensive and harder to secure in time. For Kumar, it is not so much a question of cost as it is the difference between stability and strain.

“If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,” he says. “Maybe delay the wedding. If things get worse … even children’s education becomes difficult.”

School fees for his eldest son, Amit, 12, are due in the coming weeks, and Kumar has been setting aside money for his younger daughter Varsha’s future wedding.

It’s never easily affordable, even in good times. “We somehow manage,” Kumar says. “But if the harvest is weak, then we have to think about what to prioritise, what to delay.”

For farmers like him across South Asia, the United States-Israel war on Iran – unfolding thousands of kilometres away – is not just a matter of distant geopolitics.

It is shaping decisions inside their homes.

A distant crisis with local consequences

At the centre of the unfolding crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) from India’s northern plains. It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf and its oil producers to the open ocean and, from there, to global markets.

About one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through this body of water, which Iran closed down shortly after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28.

Vast volumes of LNG, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers, are transported from Gulf producers to Asia via this route. Any disruption can delay shipments, push up freight and insurance costs and place a stranglehold on supply.

Interruptions to the supply of fertiliser can ripple quickly, reducing crop yields, increasing costs and raising food prices.

The risks are already being felt thousands of kilometres away.

South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, relies heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to produce staple crops such as wheat and rice. Over the past few decades, the increasing use of fertilisers – which can hugely boost crop yields – has played a key role in agricultural productivity across the region.

The agriculture sector now employs about 46 percent of the workforce in India, about 38 percent in Pakistan, nearly 40 percent in Bangladesh, and more than 60 percent in Nepal.

The degree to which countries in the region depend on the Strait of Hormuz varies, but all rely heavily on the trade in fertilisers that this shipping route facilitates.

In India, the agriculture sector is worth $400bn, according to Indian government and World Bank data, and supports the livelihoods of more than half the population, either directly or indirectly. More than 100 million farming families are directly dependent on the sector.

The country imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements and other key raw materials, particularly phosphates and potash, as well as natural gas used to manufacture fertiliser, with about 30–35 percent of these supplies moving through or originating from routes that pass via the Strait of Hormuz.

In Pakistan, the agriculture sector contributes close to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Pakistan government estimates, and employs millions. About 20-25 percent of Pakistan’s fertiliser imports, particularly DAP (diammonium phosphate), pass through the Strait of Hormuz at some point in transit. Additionally, the sector relies on domestic natural gas for the production of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertiliser and, with Gulf natural gas supplies held up in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of natural gas everywhere – even at home – is on the rise.

In Bangladesh, where millions of smallholder farmers rely heavily on imported fertilisers, the agricultural sector accounts for about 12-13 percent of GDP, according to government data. The country’s farming industry relies heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crops, meaning farmers are highly exposed to international supply shocks and price swings.

Furthermore, roughly 25-30 percent of Bangladesh’s imported fertiliser is shipped via routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nepal, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP, imports nearly all of its fertiliser needs, with about 25-30 percent of arriving via India, via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Livelihoods at stake

Overall, even minor disruption in the Gulf – let alone the complete closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz – can have dire consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

The Indian government has sought to reassure farmers that supplies remain secure – for now.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament on March 23: “Adequate arrangements have been made for fertiliser supply for the summer sowing season…The government has diversified options for oil, gas and fertiliser imports… Domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilisers] has been expanded… Farmers now have access to Made in India Nano Urea and are encouraged to adopt natural farming…”

He added: “Under the PM Kusum scheme, more than 22 lakh (2.2 million) solar pumps have been provided, reducing dependence on diesel… I am confident that through joint efforts, India will manage these challenges effectively and continue to support our farmers.”

On the ground, however, confidence is low. Farmers say uncertainty is already influencing decisions.

In Pampore, in the south of Indian-administered Kashmir, 53-year-old mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool says price signals travel faster than supply disruptions.

“We hear about war, about shipping problems,” he tells Al Jazeera. “Even before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive.”

Rasool says farmers often respond early by cutting down on the amount of fertiliser they are using, even before actual shortages emerge.

“If we use less, production will fall,” he says. “But sometimes we have no choice.”

In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad, 45, is preparing for the next sowing cycle.

“If fertiliser becomes expensive, it will affect everyone here,” he says.

Government officials have expressed confidence in Pakistan’s fertiliser supply amid the Middle East conflict, and claim the government is fully prepared to ensure adequate supplies during the region’s peak sowing period, which typically begins between April and June, depending on the crop.

According to a statement by Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture to Al Jazeera, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain told a meeting on March 25 that the government has started proactive monitoring, is expanding domestic urea and DAP production and taking steps to ensure fertilisers reach farmers at affordable prices.

However, urea production requires supplies of natural gas, meaning global energy price shocks can still translate into rising production costs.

For farmers, even small increases matter

“We already have loans and expenses,” Ahmad says. “If costs go up, we feel it immediately.”

In Rangpur, northwestern Bangladesh, farmer Mohammad Ibrahim, 41, says fertiliser supplies are already becoming unpredictable.

“Sometimes it is available, sometimes not,” he says. “And when it comes, the price is higher.”

Meanwhile, in Nepal’s Gulmi district, farmer Meghnath Aryal, 38, worries that crops will be reduced if a major supply problem does appear.

“If fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers,” he says. “If it becomes expensive, we reduce use.”

Bangladesh’s Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad told Al Jazeera the government is “closely monitoring the situation” and officials have tried to reassure farmers that fertiliser supplies are sufficient for the coming months.

The government has finalised plans to import about 500,000 tonnes of urea in the near term, while also exploring alternative suppliers such as China and Morocco to secure additional supplies in the longer term.

There is no immediate shortage at present, the Agriculture Ministry says.

Ram Krishna Shrestha, joint secretary at Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, told Al Jazeera that fertiliser distribution within the country remains largely stable for now, with supplies already secured for the upcoming rainy season, particularly for paddy crops such as rice.

However, he warned that there may be delays to contracted shipments as a result of the Middle East crisis.

“We have managed fertilisers for the upcoming season, but there could be challenges in timely supply because of the current situation,” he said, pointing to global price increases and logistical disruptions, including those caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shrestha added that as companies report shortages and rising prices in international markets, the government has asked suppliers to expedite deliveries.

“Authorities are also advising farmers to increase the use of traditional nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, compost, green manuring and azolla [a natural fertiliser] to offset any potential shortfall in chemical fertilisers,” he said.

No immediate new fertiliser subsidies have been announced, he said, though adjustments remain under discussion as the situation evolves.

Rising food prices on the horizon

The implications extend beyond individual farmers.

Across South Asia, fertiliser use has been central to maintaining crop yields – and keeping large populations fed. Any reduction in availability or increase in costs can quickly lower production. That, in turn, pushes up food prices, a sensitive issue in a region where households spend a large proportion of their income on food.

For governments, the challenge is complex.

In the past, subsidies have kept fertilisers affordable for farmers, but this becomes a fragile balancing act if global prices rise, placing additional pressure on public finances.

In India, Ramesh Kumar is already making adjustments – but he is walking a tightrope.

He has decided to use less fertiliser this season, even though he knows it could reduce yields.

“It is a risk,” he says. “But what choice do we have?”

Lower production will mean less income and harder decisions at home.

“School fees have to be paid,” he says. “Household expenses cannot stop.” He looks across his field.

“And the wedding… we will see.”

Ultimately, sacrifices will have to be made in his household.

Across borders, the same uncertainty is unfolding.

In Pakistan, Ahmad is worried about rising costs. In Bangladesh, Ibrahim is mostly concerned about the availability of fertiliser and, in Nepal, Aryal fears delays in supply.

For Ramesh Kumar, the stakes are clear.

“For others, this is about war,” he says. “For us, it is about whether we can take care of our family.”

A Lahore court has ruled in favour of Pakistani singer Ali Zafar in his defamation case against fellow singer Meesha Shafi. On Tuesday, the court ordered Shafi to pay Zafar 5 million rupees ($17,900) in damages.

Zafar sued Shafi for defamation in 2018 after she accused him of sexual harassment in Pakistan’s highest-profile #MeToo case.

What has the court ruled?

The court’s ruling, which has not been released to the public but has been seen by several Pakistani media outlets, states that a 2018 social media post by Shafi and an interview she gave to a lifestyle magazine contained “false, defamatory and injurious imputations” against the plaintiff, Zafar.

The court found that her allegations of sexual harassment of a physical nature had not been proved to be true or shown to be made for the public good, and therefore constituted actionable defamation, according to Pakistan’s leading daily newspaper, Dawn.

The court added that Shafi was to be “permanently restrained from repeating, publishing, or causing to be published, directly or indirectly, the aforesaid defamatory allegations of sexual harassment of a physical nature against the plaintiff, in any form of media”.

This order will be appealed to the High Court, Nighat Dad, the lawyer who represented Shafi in court, told Al Jazeera.

As well as a member of Shafi’s legal team, Dad is the executive director of a nongovernmental, research-based advocacy organisation, the Digital Rights Foundation.

She said: “The appeal is likely to challenge the judgement on several grounds: that the trial court misread and selectively interpreted the evidence, failed to properly consider material evidence presented by Meesha, and overlooked the legal context, particularly that her sexual harassment complaint against Ali Zafar is still pending before the Supreme Court.”

What was the #MeToo case involving Shafi and Zafar?

In April 2018, Shafi, now 44, posted a statement through a series of posts on X, then called Twitter, accusing Zafar of sexually harassing her on multiple occasions.

Shafi wrote: “I have been subjected, on more than one occasion, to sexual harassment of a physical nature at the hands of a colleague from my industry: Ali Zafar.”

Shafi added that she was speaking up as an “empowered, accomplished woman who is known for speaking her mind!”

In her posts, Shafi referred to the global “#MeToo” movement by women and girls against sexual harassment and assault.

The hashtag gained worldwide prominence in 2017 when women in Hollywood and beyond began speaking out in the wake of allegations against the former American film producer and now convicted sex offender, Harvey Weinstein.

Within hours of Shafi’s post, Zafar, now 45, responded on X: “I categorically deny any and all claims of harassment lodged against me by Ms Shafi.”

He added that he intended to take the allegation to “the courts of law” and to address them legally rather than “contesting personal vendettas on social media and in turn disrespecting the movement”.

Shafi and Zafar were once known to be friends and are both prominent figures in Pakistan’s entertainment industry. Both have also made appearances in films outside Pakistan. Shafi even performed a small cameo role in 2003 in a music video for Zafar’s first album.

In April 2018, Shafi spoke about her allegations against Zafar during an interview with fashion and lifestyle magazine Instep Pakistan.

She told the magazine that she had not publicly spoken about the harassment at the time it happened because “I’m a public figure and so is he (Ali Zafar). My thought process was who I am and who he is and what that’s going to lead to. Being ready to talk was far off because it had just happened. I buried it.”

Have other women accused Zafar of inappropriate behaviour?

Yes. Several Pakistani celebrities and public figures posted in support of Shafi online after her 2018 X posts.

Additionally, other women came forward to accuse Zafar of sexual harassment.

They included makeup artist and painter Leena Ghani, who wrote in a statement on X in April 2018 that Zafar had on “several occasions” crossed the boundaries of what is considered appropriate behaviour between friends.

“Inappropriate contact, groping, sexual comments should not fall in the grey area between humour and indecency,” Ghani said.

Maham Javaid, a journalist who now works for The Washington Post, alleged in April 2018 that Zafar had tried to kiss her cousin and pull her inside a restroom in a now-deleted X post.

How has the dispute between Shafi and Zafar unfolded?

The pair have filed a slew of complaints against each other.

In June 2018, Zafar filed his one‑billion‑rupee defamation suit against Shafi. At the time, that was equivalent to more than $8m. It is now equivalent to $3.5m, due to the devaluation of the Pakistani rupee.

Shafi then filed a complaint about the alleged harassment before the Ombudsperson Punjab for Protection Against Harassment of Women at the Workplace, later in 2018.

Her complaint was rejected on the technical grounds that she and Zafar did not have an employer-employee relationship. An appeal is pending in the Supreme Court.

Zafar also filed a separate cybercrime complaint with the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in November 2018, alleging that Shafi and others were running a coordinated smear campaign against him on social media.

Based on this report, the FIA filed a First Information Report (FIR) against Shafi and eight others in September 2020 under Pakistan’s Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA).

Those named in the complaint included Ghani, Javaid, comedian Ali Gul Pir and actor Iffat Omar, who had publicly supported Shafi and posted critical comments about Zafar online. The PECA offences they were charged under – criminal defamation provisions covering “offences against dignity” – carried a maximum penalty of three years in prison.

It is not known publicly whether the FIA cybercrime case has reached a verdict.

In September 2019, Shafi filed her own two-billion-rupee civil defamation suit against Zafar in a Lahore court, accusing him of making false allegations about her in the media. Two billion rupees was worth roughly $13m when Shafi filed the suit in 2019; due to the rupee’s steep depreciation, the same amount is now worth about $7m. That case is ongoing.

What has been the response to this week’s defamation ruling?

Actor and television host Iffat Omar, who was also named in the FIA cybercrime case and was also a witness for Shafi in Zafar’s defamation case against her, criticised the court ruling in an X post on Tuesday.

Omar wrote: “People were silenced, pressured, bought, and scared. The entire support system was broken. On top of that, we were accused of running a foreign agenda, of being paid huge amounts in dollars. I said it then, and I say it again – prove it in court. I am ready to open all my bank accounts, everything.”

Last week, Saqib Jilani, another of Shafi’s lawyers, asked the Lahore court to dismiss the defamation lawsuit, arguing that Zafar had not produced any concrete evidence to support his defamation claims.

Also last week, Shafi’s mother, the Pakistani actor Saba Hameed, who has been attending court proceedings in Pakistan while her daughter lives in Canada, told reporters: “We have been fighting this for eight years, and we are not accepting defeat in this matter.”

What happens next?

Shafi’s legal team intends to appeal the defamation ruling in favour of Zafar to the High Court. “This is far from the end of the road,” Dad told Al Jazeera.

She added that other legal actions relating to this are ongoing.

“Meesha Shafi’s original complaint of sexual harassment against Ali Zafar has been pending before the Supreme Court for several years now,” Dad explained, referring to the 2018 complaint dismissed on technical grounds by the Office of the Ombudsperson Punjab for Protection Against Harassment of Women, but which Shafi has appealed.

“Separately, Ali Zafar initiated a criminal case alleging cyber-defamation against Meesha and her witnesses, which also reached the Supreme Court and is currently stayed.”

Dad said that Shafi’s civil defamation suit against Zafar is also still pending.

Why is this significant?

“This ruling risks setting a deeply troubling precedent,” Dad said.

Currently, she said, survivors of sexual harassment face major legal, social and reputational barriers. Decisions like the Lahore court’s recent order are likely to discourage victims of sexual harassment “from speaking out at all”.

“If defamation law is interpreted in a way that punishes speech before underlying harassment claims are even adjudicated, it shifts the burden unfairly onto survivors and reinforces silence over accountability,” Dad added.

“And that is the real danger here.”

Indian teenage prodigy smashes his third IPL half century as Rajasthan routed Chennai Super Kings in the IPL.

Days after turning ‌15, Rajasthan Royals opener Vaibhav Sooryavanshi found a perfect way to ⁠celebrate, tearing ⁠to a 15-ball half-century in a commanding eight-wicket victory over Chennai Super Kings in the Indian Premier League (IPL) on Monday.

Sooryavanshi, who ⁠lit up his debut season with a 35-ball hundred against Gujarat Titans last year, took only 15 balls to smash his first fifty ⁠of the season – the third fifty-plus score of his eight-match IPL career so far.

Alongside fellow opener and India batter Yashasvi Jaiswal, Sooryavanshi tore into the Chennai attack in the powerplay, leading the team to 74 without loss.

Sooryavanshi was ‌dismissed for 52 after 17 balls, including five sixes and four fours, after sharing a blistering 75-run stand with Jaiswal. Rajasthan sealed victory in just 12.1 overs after chasing down a victory target of 128.

“I think of defending, but the plan was to decide the game in the powerplay as we’d restricted them to a low score,” ⁠Sooryavanshi said.

“If the bowlers had bowled well in ⁠the powerplay then the game might have turned their way, but we went all out in the powerplay.”

The Under-19 World Cup winner credited Rajasthan coach Kumar Sangakkara and staff for ⁠backing his attacking instincts.

“They told me to read the situation well and back my game,” he added.

Rajasthan’s quick ⁠chase followed a brilliant bowling effort. Their ⁠attack reduced Chennai to 41-4 at the end of the powerplay, putting the visitors firmly on the back foot before they were dismissed for 127 in 19.4 overs.

South Africa pace ‌bowler Nandre Burger led the charge with figures of 2-26 and was named player of the match, while Jofra Archer and Ravindra Jadeja also ‌took ‌two wickets apiece.

Rajasthan will next face the Gujarat Titans in Ahmedabad on Saturday, while Chennai host Punjab Kings on Friday.

At least 28 people are killed in Afghanistan and 17 in Pakistan after heavy rainfall causes severe flooding.

Heavy rain that has caused severe flooding and landslides has killed at least 45 people in Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past five days, authorities say.

Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) said on Monday that 28 people have been killed in the floods and 49 injured with more than 100 homes destroyed.

Most of the deaths in Afghanistan were reported in central and eastern provinces, including Parwan, Maidan Wardak, Daikundi and Logar, according to ANDMA.

The authority added in a statement that weather conditions remained “unstable” in parts of the country and there is a continued risk of more rain and flooding in some areas.

“In total, 1,140 families have been affected,” ANDMA said.

Police spokesperson Sediqullah Seddiqi told the AFP news agency a 14-year-old boy died after being struck by lightning in the northwestern province of Badghis.

He added that in the same province, three people had drowned while trying to gather driftwood to be used for heating.

At the same time in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which shares a border with Afghanistan, 17 people were killed and 56 wounded, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority said.

Extreme weather

Heavy rainfall has continued to sweep across Afghanistan since Thursday, causing floods and landslides in multiple provinces.

The weather prompted the closure of several highways, according to officials in central and eastern Afghanistan. Further rains and storms are forecast for Tuesday.

Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Authority has warned citizens to refrain from using “rivers and flooded streams, and follow the weather forecast seriously”.

In the central province of Daikundi, the local disaster management department said a five-year-old was killed when a roof collapsed. A woman was also killed in the same circumstances in the eastern province of Nangarhar, police spokesperson Sayed Tayeb Hamad said.

Afghanistan is vulnerable to extreme weather, particularly heavy rainfall and monsoon seasons, which trigger floods and landslides in remote areas with fragile infrastructure.

In January, flash floods and snowfall caused the deaths of at least 17 people and killed livestock.