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Why Latin American markets are leading global returns in 2026

Latin American financial assets have emerged among the best-performing markets worldwide at the start of 2026, driven by an unusual alignment of positive political catalysts, strong commodity prices, and renewed global appetite for emerging markets.

Equities and currencies across the region have sharply outpaced developed markets, reversing several years of relative underperformance.

The shift in sentiment has been triggered by a sequence of closely timed developments.

A sustained upswing in commodity prices — particularly industrial and precious metals — has strengthened the outlook for South America’s export-driven economies.

And while the full consequences of the recent US seizure of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro have yet to play out, some investors view the ousting as positive. A number hope the move will reduce geopolitical tail risks long associated with the region.

Adding to the momentum, the announcement of the EU–Mercosur trade agreement revived expectations of deeper trade integration between Europe and Latin America, even as doubts remain over its full implementation.

Global macro conditions have also played a decisive role. Major investment banks, including Bank of America and AllianceBernstein, indicate that a weaker US dollar in 2026 is boosting the appeal of emerging market assets.

Historically, periods of dollar weakness have coincided with strong emerging market performance, as capital shifts toward countries where returns are higher.

Countries most exposed to metals markets have been the primary beneficiaries. Chile and Peru — key producers of copper, silver and gold — have enjoyed substantial windfall gains from the metals rally.

Chile, the world’s largest copper exporter, shipped 14.9 million tonnes of the metal in 2024, according to ITC Trade Map data.

Latin America shines among top-performing global markets

Performance data compiled by CountryETFTracker show that five Latin American countries now rank among the world’s ten best-performing equity markets over the past three months.

Chilean stocks are up 36.6% since mid-October, making them the best-performing investable equity market globally via exchange-traded funds. Simultaneously, the Chilean peso has appreciated more than 8% over the past two months, reflecting improved terms of trade and renewed portfolio inflows.

Argentina has been another standout, with a 27.45% rally in equity markets since October. Investors have responded positively to the liberalisation reforms introduced by President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023.

The International Monetary Fund, in its latest Regional Economic Outlook, credited the Milei administration with enacting “an ambitious package of market-oriented reforms” targeting productivity, regulatory simplification, and fiscal sustainability.

The IMF noted that, if sustained, these reforms could yield substantial medium-term gains by opening Argentina’s economy and improving investor confidence. That’s despite the fact that such austerity forms were particularly unpopular with the general public when first announced, triggering protests in Argentina.

Beyond Chile and Argentina, Peru has posted equity gains of around 27%, with the Peruvian sol now trading at its strongest level relative to the dollar in over five years.

Elsewhere, equities in Colombia rose about 16%, and Brazil has rounded out the regional leaders with a 12.9% rally.

By contrast, the US S&P 500 has gained just 4.8% over the same period, while Germany’s DAX is up around 5%, underscoring Latin America’s marked relative outperformance.

EU–Mercosur agreement signals strategic shift for Latin America

The long-awaited EU–Mercosur trade agreement, more than two decades in the making, is set to be formally signed on 17 January in Paraguay, marking a turning point in relations between Europe and South America.

For the founding members of the Mercosur bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — the accord represents their first major trade agreement with an external partner, opening preferential access to a market of nearly 450 million EU consumers.

“The approval of the EU–Mercosur trade agreement is a landmark moment, creating the largest free trade area in the world by population,” Ángel Talavera, head of European macro at Oxford Economics, said in a note.

Combined, the EU and Mercosur economies account for around a quarter of global GDP and roughly 780 million people.

For Latin American markets, experts say the significance goes beyond improved agricultural access to Europe. The agreement is expected to lower tariff and non-tariff barriers on industrial inputs, particularly benefitting manufacturing-heavy economies such as Brazil and Argentina by reducing costs, improving competitiveness and strengthening supply-chain integration.

According to a study by Banco Santander, the deal is poised to transform trade and investment flows across South America. The EU already accounts for close to €370bn in foreign direct investment into Mercosur and over €125bn in annual trade.

Brazil’s Institute for Applied Economic Research expects the deal could lift Brazil’s GDP by around 0.5 percentage points and raise investment by 1.5 percentage points annually, reflecting stronger export prospects and increased foreign direct investment.

Estimates from Real Instituto Elcano and the Bank of Spain suggest EU–Latin America trade could expand by up to 70% over time, while intra-regional trade within Latin America could rise by as much as 40%.

A turning point for Latin America?

Latin America’s recent strong performance in global financial markets seems to reflect more than just cyclical tailwinds.

Rising commodity prices, easing geopolitical risks, and a weaker US dollar have all helped draw global investors back to the region after years of underperformance.

At the same time, reform momentum in countries such as Argentina and renewed trade links with Europe have improved perceptions of policy stability and long-term growth potential.

While challenges remain and many of the economic benefits will take time to materialise, markets are increasingly viewing Latin America as a relative bright spot among emerging economies.

For now, the region’s combination of high returns, improving fundamentals, and strategic relevance in global trade is proving hard for investors to ignore.

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South American countries tighten migration controls after Venezuela crisis

A member of the Colombian Army stands guard at the Simon Bolivar International Bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, on Sunday. The bridge is the main crossing point between Colombia and Venezuela, and it remains open after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured by the United States military action on Saturday and flown to New York to stand trial. Photo by Mario Caicedo/EPA

Jan. 5 (UPI) — Several South American countries announced new migration controls and border security measures in response to Venezuela’s political crisis following a United States operation that detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and transferred them to New York to face drug-related charges.

While Colombia said it will keep its border crossings with Venezuela open and ruled out closures, Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Paraguay announced restrictions on the entry of people linked to the Venezuelan government amid regional uncertainty and diplomatic coordination.

Colombian Vice Foreign Minister Mauricio Jaramillo said keeping the border open is strategic given cross-border migration and commercial flows along some 1,370 miles of shared frontier.

“Colombia has no interest in closing the border. It is essential that it remain open,” Jaramillo said, adding that Migration Colombia activated a permanent monitoring plan to oversee the situation without disrupting the regular movement of people and goods.

At the same time, President Gustavo Petro ordered tighter security along the border through the deployment of more than 30,000 public security personnel, including military and police forces, as a preventive measure against possible disturbances to public order.

Argentina, Peru, Ecuador and Paraguay separately announced new migration controls and entry restrictions targeting government officials, military personnel and others linked to the Venezuelan government.

In Ecuador, the Foreign Ministry said it will apply migration restrictions to public officials, members of the armed forces and security services, business figures, and other people associated with the government of Nicolás Maduro, citing national security concerns.

Authorities said asylum and refugee protections will not be misused and must comply with principles and procedures established under national and international law.

In Argentina, National Security Minister Alejandra Monteoliva said the National Migration Directorate will impose limits on the entry of people connected to the Venezuelan government, including officials, members of the armed forces, business figures and sanctioned individuals, to prevent what she described as regime collaborators from using the country as a refuge or protective platform.

“Argentina will not grant protection to collaborators of the Maduro regime,” the ministry said in a statement. President Javier Milei welcomed the fall of the Venezuelan leader and voiced support for a political transition process in Venezuela.

In Peru, the Interior Ministry announced the immediate implementation of migration controls through the National Superintendency of Migration, in coordination with the National Police.

The measures target Venezuelan citizens linked to the Caribbean nation’s government who appear on international sanctions lists, particularly those issued by the United States, to prevent Peru from being used to evade judicial proceedings.

“Notified. Those who oppressed their country for years are not welcome,” interim President Jose Jeri said in a post on social media platform X.

In Paraguay, the National Migration Directorate said it adopted control and restriction measures, with support from state security agencies, to block the entry of people linked to the Venezuelan government or with alleged ties to drug trafficking, narcoterrorism or pending criminal cases.

Authorities said they will evaluate international cooperation mechanisms and database cross-checks to verify individuals’ links to the Venezuelan government.

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Venezuela: Latin American Countries Jointly Condemn US Attacks as Interim Gov’t Backs Maduro

The Venezuelan armed forces expressed readiness to maintain peace and internal order in the country. (Archive)

Caracas, January 4, 2025 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The governments of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, and Spain issued a joint statement Sunday rejecting “unilateral US actions in Venezuelan territory.”

“These actions contravene basic principles of international law and represent a very dangerous precedent for peace and regional security,” the communique read.

The joint statement followed widespread regional and global condemnation of Washington’s January 3 strikes against Venezuelan military sites and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores.

The countries went on to issue calls for dialogue and urged the United Nations secretary general and member states to help “de-escalate tensions and preserve peace.” 

In response to US President Donald Trump’s claim that he would “run” Venezuela, the signatories expressed concern over “attempts at foreign government control or seizure of natural resources.” However, the declaration made no mention of Maduro nor called for his release.

The diplomatic response to the US attacks also included an emergency summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean nations (CELAC), held on Sunday, January 4. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil decried the US actions as blatant violations of international law and the United Nations Charter.

“The US has violated the personal immunity of a sitting head of state,” Gil told regional leaders in the conference call. “Kidnapping a president is kidnapping a people’s sovereignty.”

Venezuela’s top diplomat urged CELAC member-states to “take a step forward,” warning that silence would amount to acceptance of Washington’s unilateral acts.

A number of countries, including Venezuelan allies Russia and China, have forcefully denounced the US military operation. In a Sunday statement, Beijing charged Washington with a “clear violation of international law” and called for Maduro and Flores’ “immediate release.”

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency session on Monday.

For her part, Venezuela Vice President and now acting Interim President Delcy Rodríguez reiterated demands for Maduro’s release and vowed that the country would not submit “to any empire.” Rodríguez held a press conference Saturday afternoon and confirmed the enactment of a decree establishing a “state of external commotion.” The instrument grants the executive additional tools, including the ability to mobilize troops or restrict civil liberties, for a period of 90 days that can be extended.

On Saturday night, the Venezuelan Supreme Court ruled that Maduro’s kidnapping and rendition to US soil constituted a temporary absence and that Rodríguez was mandated to take over the presidency on an interim basis.

Footage surfaced Saturday evening showing Maduro being walked out of an airplane in New York. He was later taken to a DEA facility before being moved, along with Flores, to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. He made no statements but greeted DEA officers and appeared upbeat in photos, making a peace sign and holding his thumbs up.

The Venezuelan president was indicted by a New York district court on Saturday, with charges including “narcoterrorism conspiracy” and “possession of machine guns.” A hearing is reportedly scheduled for Monday.

For their part, Venezuela’s National BolivarianArmed Forces (FANB) likewise issued a communique on Sunday, rejecting the “cowardly kidnapping” of Maduro and Flores and reiterating its mission to “confront imperial aggression.”

The FANB voiced support for Rodríguez taking over the presidency on an acting basis and vowed to maintain readiness to preserve “peace and internal order.” 

The Defense Ministry has yet to provide a report on damages and casualties from the US strikes, though Sunday’s communiqué condemned the “cold-blooded murder” of members of Maduro’s security detail. Unconfirmed reports have put forward a figure of 80 deaths.

Venezuelan popular movements and political parties took to the streets for a second consecutive day on Sunday, holding marches and rallies in Caracas and other cities. Public transportation and retail functioned to a greater degree than on Saturday.

The US attacks also spurred numerous international solidarity demonstrations over the weekend. Crowds gathered in dozens of Latin American, European and US cities. A demonstration was called for Sunday outside the Brooklyn detention center where Maduro is being held.

The January 3 operation came on the heels of the largest ever US Caribbean military build-up, with Trump having previously ordered dozebs of strikes against small boats accused of carrying drugs, killing over 100 civilians. The US president has repeatedly expressed intentions of using military threats to extract favorable oil deals for US corporations.

In a Sunday interview, Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the acting government in Caracas to “make the right decisions” and affirmed that the US retained “leverage” mechanisms, including a naval blockade stopping oil exports.

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Mali, Burkina Faso ban American travel in retaliation

Dec. 31 (UPI) — Two African countries have announced travel bans against U.S. citizens in retaliation for President Donald Trump‘s travel bans against their own people.

The governments of Mali and Burkina Faso said on Tuesday that they were acting “in accordance with the principle of reciprocity.” They said Americans wanting to travel to their countries would see the same impositions that their citizens face in the United States. Niger’s state news agency announced a travel ban on Americans last week, though no official statement was released.

On Dec. 14, Trump announced travel bans on Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan and Syria. He also created new restrictions on people seeking entry from Laos and Sierra Leone, as well as those with travel documents issued by the Palestinian Authority. There are now 19 countries on the list.

Mali’s foreign ministry said in a statement that it “regrets that such an important decision was taken without any prior consultation and in substance deplores the security grounds put forward, which contradict the actual developments on the ground, in an attempt to justify a decision whose motivation lies elsewhere.”

Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are led by military juntas after recent coups, The New York Times said. Their leaders had all mostly cut ties with the United States and developed closer relations with Russia, China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

A United Nations report published on Dec. 18 said that the Sahel region — Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali — now accounts for more than half of the world’s terrorism-related deaths.

Laos and Sierra Leone were moved from partial travel restrictions to full bans. The administration put partial restrictions on 15 other countries.

The State Department ban does not affect lawful permanent residents, many existing visa holders, diplomats or athletes traveling for major sports events.

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US bars five Europeans over alleged efforts to ‘censor American viewpoints’ | European Union News

The United States has imposed visa bans on five Europeans, including a former European Union commissioner, accusing them of pressuring tech firms to censor and suppress “American viewpoints they oppose”.

In a statement on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio characterised the individuals as “radical activists” who had “advanced censorship crackdowns” by foreign states against “American speakers and American companies”.

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“For far too long, ideologues in Europe have led organized efforts to coerce American platforms to punish American viewpoints they oppose,” he said on X.

“The Trump Administration will no longer tolerate these egregious acts of extraterritorial censorship,” he added.

The most prominent target was Thierry Breton, who served as the European commissioner for the internal market from 2019-2024.

Sarah Rogers, the undersecretary for public diplomacy, described the French businessman as the “mastermind” of the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), a landmark law intended to combat ​hateful speech, misinformation and disinformation on online platforms.

Rogers also accused Breton of using the DSA to threaten Elon Musk, the owner of X and a close ally of US President Donald Trump, ahead of an interview Musk conducted with Trump during last year’s presidential campaign.

‘Witch hunt’

Breton responded to the visa ban in a post on X, slamming it as a “witch hunt” and comparing the situation with the US’s McCarthy era, when officials were chased out of government for alleged ties to communism.

“To our American friends: Censorship isn’t where you think it is,” he added.

The others named by Rogers are: Imran Ahmed, chief executive of the Centre for Countering Digital Hate; Josephine Ballon and Anna-Lena von Hodenberg, leaders of HateAid, a German organisation, and Clare Melford, who runs the Global Disinformation Index (GDI).

French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noel Barrot “strongly” condemned the visa restrictions, stating that the EU “cannot let the rules governing their digital space be imposed by others upon them”. He stressed that the DSA was “democratically adopted in Europe” and that “it has absolutely no extraterritorial reach and in no way affects the United States”.

Ballon and von Holdenberg of HateAid described the visa bans as an attempt to obstruct the enforcement of European law on US corporations operating in Europe.

“We will not be ‌intimidated by a government that uses accusations of censorship to silence those who stand ⁠up for human rights and freedom of expression,” they said in a statement.

A spokesperson for the GDI also called the US action “immoral, unlawful, and un-American”, as well as “an authoritarian attack on free speech and an egregious act of government censorship”.

The punitive measures follow the Trump administration’s publishing of a National Security Strategy, which accused European leaders of censoring free speech and suppressing opposition to immigration policies that it said risk “civilisational erasure” for the continent.

The DSA in particular has emerged as a flashpoint in US-EU relations, with US conservatives decrying it as a weapon of censorship against right-wing thought in Europe and beyond, an accusation Brussels denies.

The legislation requires major platforms to explain content-moderation decisions, provide transparency for users and grant researchers access to study issues such as children’s exposure to dangerous content.

Tensions escalated further this month after the EU fined Musk’s X for violating DSA rules on transparency in advertising and its methods for ensuring users were verified and actual people.

Washington last week signalled that key European businesses – including Accenture, DHL, Mistral, Siemens and Spotify – could be targeted in response.

The US has also attacked the United Kingdom’s Online Safety Act, which imposes similar content moderation requirements on major social media platforms.

The White House last week suspended the implementation of a tech cooperation deal with the UK, saying it was in opposition to the UK’s tech rules.

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I’ve watched Godless and American Primeval — one BBC western is better than them both

Netflix’s American Primeval launched in January 2025, but BBC’s 2022 western series The English starring Emily Blunt is being hailed as the superior show

Three recent TV western series tower above the rest. The latest arrival is American Primeval, which landed on Netflix at the start of this year. The series delivers an unflinchingly realistic and brutal portrayal of existence on Utah’s lawless frontier, following a mother and child fighting for survival.

Their trek brings them face-to-face with settlers living by their own code, indigenous peoples protecting their territories, and Brigham Young’s Mormon militia. The unrelenting brutality stands in sharp opposition to the sanitised portrayals of the Wild West seen in 1990s pictures such as Tombstone and Dances With Wolves.

Yet it isn’t simply violence for its own sake. It features outstanding performances and centres its narrative on the Mountain Meadows Massacre, a grotesque and shameful chapter in American history that was probably unfamiliar to most viewers before this series.

Audiences have hailed the programme as “absolutely phenomenal” and “raw and unflinching”, whilst Empire magazine characterised it as “a raw, bloody odyssey that will pierce your skull like a hatchet flung face-first”, noting: “Nostalgia has been stripped away completely, scalped in favour of a grimy, far more authentic journey that takes us back to how the so-called land of the free really came to be.”

The Guardian offered a more critical view, branding it a “samey western that’s far less clever than it thinks it is”. I dispute that verdict.

Godless

If you were gripped by American Primeval, there’s another Western miniseries that many reckon is even better. Godless, a Netflix original released in 2017, shares the Old West setting and intense violence of American Primeval, but offers a unique twist. Godless spins a classic tale of revenge. Jeff Daniels portrays crime boss Frank Griffin, who, along with his band of outlaws, is on the hunt for Roy Goode, a former member who betrayed them.

As Roy flees from his past, he ends up in a secluded New Mexico mining town predominantly inhabited by women. His arrival lures Griffin’s deadly gang to the town, forcing the residents to stand their ground.

The series was lauded as a “work of confident artistry”, an “unrelentingly brilliant” and “clandestinely old-fashioned mash-up of all the great Westerns you ever knew and loved”. It also bagged three Primetime Emmy Awards.

The English

But there’s another modern western TV series that trumps them both. The English, a BBC production that flew somewhat under the radar upon its 2022 release, stars Emily Blunt, Chaske Spencer, and Rafe Spall. Set in 1890, it follows Lady Cornelia Locke (Blunt) who journeys from England to the American west seeking vengeance against the man she holds responsible for her son’s death.

Whilst it rivals both American Primeval and Godless in terms of its grim portrayal of the Old West, the series also shines a light on another disturbing element of 19th-century existence that seldom appears on our screens: syphilis and the devastating toll it takes on the body. The show also presents one of the most chilling figures in recent memory: Black-Eyed Mog, a bonnet-clad, spectacle-wearing Welsh matriarch who presides over a brutal clan controlling the plains from their fortified stronghold.

Critics awarded it five stars, praising a script “as gorgeous as the landscape”, which “evokes the pitilessness of the old west” and poses the question of “how many of us would remain sane, and morally sound, in a lawless land where – for hundreds of miles at a time – no one could hear you, or anyone who got in your way, scream”.

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