alliance

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

The Mecca Alliance says it has agreed to trigger collective deterrence measures in response to “heinous attacks” by Yemen’s Houthi group against Saudi Arabia.

In a statement on Monday, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry said Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye had decided to “provide the agreed military forces and capabilities and ensure their rapid deployment” to the kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister, Khalid bin Salman, said the member countries agreed to trigger the alliance in response “to the attacks and all those responsible for them”.

The announcement comes as the Saudi-backed Yemeni government has launched a counteroffensive to push the Iran-aligned Houthis back from territory captured last month.

The agreement was reached during an emergency meeting of the Strategic Political and Defence Committee under the Mecca Alliance in Riyadh.

The mutual defence pact was signed in August, shortly before the Houthis launched their offensive in Yemen, which has included attacks against Saudi targets. Questions as to whether Islamabad and Ankara would agree to trigger the agreement have persisted since.

However, with hostilities increasing in Yemen, the committee agreed to “move immediately” to implement the collective defence measures to “ensure their rapid deployment in the Kingdom,” the joint statement reads.

The defence commitments will be executed under “approved arrangements” and the national laws of the three countries, the statement added.

More to come…

Two days after seven Ethiopian armed groups announced the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival and pledged to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a senior official of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was asked whether the statement amounted to a declaration of war.

He hesitated, then answered with a question of his own.

“We are at war now, aren’t we?”

He was speaking to Kjetil Tronvoll, professor of peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College, who told Al Jazeera that the answer captured what the new rebel alliance had changed.

It has not created a single, coherent military force capable of marching on Addis Ababa. It has brought several of Ethiopia’s separate conflicts into the same political framework and, potentially, into the same military calculation.

The question now is how much further that can spread and whether seven movements with different enemies, territorial claims and histories can actually fight as one.

On Tuesday, drones struck two schools in Alamata, in southern Tigray, and the town’s mayor said 14 civilians were killed and 22 wounded. The account could not be independently verified, and the federal government did not immediately comment.

By Wednesday, Tigrayan forces had seized Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle, AFP reported, citing an airport employee and a Western embassy security source. The airport employee said staff had been told there were no flights.

The alliance, whose founding statement Fano commander Zemene Kassie read on Tigrai TV on Sunday, brings together the Amhara Fano National Movement, the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), along with the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

It promises a transitional administration once Abiy is gone.

Abiy’s spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, told Reuters that the members had been collaborating for some time with Eritrean financial backing, an accusation Asmara has repeatedly denied.

The war that never really ended

The TPLF dominated Ethiopia for 27 years, until Abiy took power in 2018 and pushed it to the margins.

In November 2020, the federal army, backed by Eritrean troops and Amhara forces, went to war with it. The conflict became one of the deadliest in Ethiopia’s modern history. African Union mediator Olusegun Obasanjo believes that about 600,000 people died, though estimates of the toll have varied.

That war ended in November 2022 with an agreement signed in Pretoria, South Africa.

It was a permanent cessation of hostilities. It silenced the guns and set terms for Tigray’s disarmament, but left critical questions for later, above all Western Tigray, the fertile territory claimed by both sides and administered by Amhara forces since the war.

Only Addis Ababa and the TPLF signed. Neither Eritrea nor the Amhara forces had a seat.

Jawar Mohammed, the Oromo politician who was once an ally of Abiy and later spent time in prison, told Al Jazeera that shutting them out gave them every reason to wreck the deal.

The new alliance brings together forces that were excluded from the Pretoria negotiations with one of the agreement’s signatories.

The quiet it created ended in May, when the TPLF restored the legislative council that existed before the war and installed its chairman, Debretsion Gebremichael, as regional president, effectively setting up a rival political authority to the interim administration established under the Pretoria agreement. The TPLF accused the federal government of failing to honour its side of the deal.

Federal and Tigrayan forces then clashed at Shererina, near the Sudanese border, on August 1. Heavy artillery and drones were used in the fighting, and hundreds of Tigrayans, including wounded fighters, fled into Sudan.

Then came the drones.

On August 20, two drones struck homes in Mekelle, wounding 13 people, according to the TPLF. Al Jazeera could not independently verify the account.

On September 20, a drone destroyed a truck carrying 41 tonnes of food aid near Adi Daero, according to the TPLF. Addis Ababa has acknowledged none of the reported strikes.

“We signed the Pretoria Agreement, but the regime used the agreement to kill the people of Tigray systematically,” the TPLF’s spokesperson, Michael Asgedom, told Al Jazeera.

Two scripts

Asgedom tells it two ways.

The alliance “was created to bring peace and democracy to Ethiopia”, he said.

He also said it would build a new order “over the ruins of Abiy Ahmed’s system” and that this was “the right time to eradicate the regime”.

If war comes, he said, “it will be for survival.”

One script is for diplomats, the other for fighters.

Tronvoll calls it constructive ambiguity, a phrase that fits the alliance.

That the alliance claims to speak for seven peoples can delegitimise Abiy abroad and raise the price of any settlement, whether or not it fires a shot.

The first test is Eritrea, the neighbour whose name appears nowhere in the founding statement.

Over the past two years, Eritrea has reconciled with the TPLF, the enemy its troops helped to crush in 2020, as Abiy began demanding access to the Red Sea, which Asmara interpreted as a claim on its coast.

Jawar argues that Eritrea’s minimum aim is to keep any conflict on the Ethiopian side of the border.

The International Crisis Group has similarly assessed that Eritrea wants to establish a buffer zone on its southern border.

Asgedom has denied any Eritrean military presence in Tigray, but left the door ajar.

“If Eritrea can take action because of a potential danger to its survival, it is the Eritreans who should answer that question.”

Tronvoll says Eritrean troops are in Tigray now, a claim Al Jazeera could not independently verify. Magnus Taylor, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa project, told Al Jazeera that he was more cautious.

“This is substantially a domestic Ethiopian phenomenon,” he said.

Seven commands, one war?

The second test is whether seven commands can fight as one.

Zemene chairs the alliance, but the founding statement names no commander for a joint campaign.

If the line ever advances on Addis Ababa, Tronvoll asks, whose soldiers go first?

“If it is a Tigrayan general commanding Amharas to be sacrificed first to save the Tigrayan soldiers, that will split it immediately.”

Western Tigray is not mentioned in the statement either.

Taylor says the Fano are themselves divided over it: Commanders in Gojjam and Wollo can contemplate an alliance with Tigray, while those nearer the disputed land cannot.

“All these groups have their own different beef with the federal government,” Taylor said, and much of it dates from Abiy’s first year.

In 2018, Abiy invited exiled rebels home, and the OLA and the ONLF returned from Asmara.

But the OLA broke away to keep fighting, and talks with it in Tanzania collapsed in 2023.

The ONLF then split in 2025 after its then-chairman called for a return to armed struggle amid a dispute over a Chinese natural-gas concession in the Somali region.

The Amharan Fano rebelled against the government in 2023 after Abiy ordered the regional special forces to be folded into the federal army, a move many Amhara believed was tantamount to disarmament.

In June, Abiy’s Prosperity Party won 438 of 486 contested parliamentary seats. Voting did not take place in Tigray and was disrupted by insecurity in parts of Amhara and Oromia.

But their grievances are not only with Abiy’s government.

Referring to the news of the alliance, Jawar said he had “not seen anything as unpopular among the Oromos”, after years of accusations that Fano fighters have killed Oromo civilians in Wollega.

The OLA calls its participation a “procedural consensus” and has demanded that Fano disown a faction in Wollega that it says the government armed.

“There is no shared political objective,” Jawar said. “They don’t even have a shared tactical objective.”

And Tronvoll goes further: “If the members ever reached the palace, immediately a new war will start between them.”

The people being asked to fight

Then, there are the people being asked to fight.

Tigrayans are being mobilised alongside forces they remember from four years ago, when, in Tronvoll’s characterisation, “both the Eritreans and the Fano Amharas were perpetrating genocide on them.”

Friends in Tigray have told Tronvoll of coercive recruitment. He estimates that tens of thousands have left the region in advance of a possible war and the draft.

“People are voting with their feet,” he said. “They are on their knees already. So what are the alternatives for them than to fight?”

Beyond the border

Abiy, for now, appears unmoved.

“As long as they don’t threaten the palace at Arat Kilo, he can live with that,” Tronvoll said. “I don’t think he skips lunch because of this.”

Taylor struggles for a word.

“Is it a headache? Is it an irritant? Is it a blow? It’s a combination of those things.”

In his assessment, the TPLF, which lost most of its heavy weapons in 2022, has come off worse in recent clashes against federal air power. The likelier course, he says, is a slow deterioration, with southern Tigray the flashpoint.

Jawar views Abiy’s approach as containment: Keep flights into Tigray running so that those who want to leave can do so, and let a war that few want sour public opinion.

With Tigrayan forces having seized Mekelle’s airport, that exit has closed.

Tom Gardner, author of The Abiy Project, said, “For months Abiy’s strategy has been to maintain a low-level conflict largely conducted via drones, proxies, and siege tactics. This could be the moment that strategy breaks down and a full-scale war erupts.”

The regional dimension is becoming harder to separate from the conflict inside Ethiopia.

The International Crisis Group says several thousand Tigrayans, mostly from Western Tigray/Welkait, have fought alongside the Sudanese army against the Rapid Support Forces.

Khartoum has also accused Addis Ababa of allowing drones to strike Sudan from Ethiopian soil, which Ethiopia denies.

Eritrea has aligned itself with Sudan’s army and established ties with Egypt, an opponent of Addis Ababa in the dispute surrounding Nile water resources.

The International Crisis Group has described Egypt as a close wartime ally of the Sudanese army.

Those alignments do not necessarily make the new Ethiopian alliance a regional military bloc. But they make it harder to treat Ethiopia’s conflicts as entirely domestic.

In Mekelle, the calculation is narrower.

“It is better to live than to die,” Asgedom said, “and the regime doesn’t allow us to live.”

A journalist in Mekelle, who spoke to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity, said people had lived for months in a state of no-war-no-peace, and many now wanted it decided either way.

The alliance offers a path to war without making clear what that war would cost.

“We need peace,” residents told the journalist in Mekelle, after months without salaries or medicine.

In the city, there is an old belief that an unexpectedly windy and sunny day foretells fighting. Tuesday was both.

Former adversaries say they will settle differences as fears grow of expanding war in Ethiopia.

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have formed an alliance aimed at overthrowing the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The groups announced the alliance on Sunday, saying that they would work together to set up an inclusive transitional government.

“We have established a joint alliance called the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, known in short as the Alliance for Survival,” the groups said in a joint statement.

The alliance includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, a coalition of Fano factions that has fought federal forces in the Amhara region since 2023; the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy took office; and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has fought federal forces in Oromia since 2018.

Four smaller groups – the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement – make up the rest.

The groups’ leaders had been talking to form the alliance for about a year, a source close to Fano told Al Jazeera on Sunday.

The announcement comes weeks after clashes in the northern region of Tigray, one of the most serious breaches yet of a 2022 peace deal, deepened fears of a return to full-scale war.

Fighting has gripped parts of Oromia since 2018 and Amhara since 2023.

Abiy came to power in 2018 promising sweeping reforms. He freed journalists, activists and other political prisoners and revoked bans on many political parties after taking power.

But his opponents and human rights activists accuse his government of reversing those gains in recent years.

In the statement, the alliance accuses the government of imposing “dictatorial rule” that has pushed the country towards break-up.

It also says a transitional government guided by a charter would work to end the wars, protect rights and open a national dialogue.

Jaal Marroo, the OLA’s military leader, told a local broadcaster earlier this month that they had met several times before settling on the final announcement.

Zemene Kassie, the Fano leader, first publicly indicated that deals had been reached in an interview with the Swiss newspaper Le Temps, published on August 16.

The government has not publicly commented on Sunday’s announcement.

Fano fought alongside federal forces against Tigray’s fighters in the Tigray war of 2020 to 2022, which killed hundreds of thousands.

Amhara and Tigray also both claim Western Tigray, which Amhara nationalists have administered since the war ended.

Ethiopian academic Eyob Tilahun told Al Jazeera on Sunday that the competing groups had agreed to have a dialogue and form an alliance “in the best interests of the public”.

“Those allied forces believe that they all face a survival threat from the government,” Eyob said.

The 2022 peace agreement, signed in Pretoria, South Africa, ended the war between the federal government and Tigray’s forces but left disputes over disarmament and the TPLF’s legal status unresolved.

In mid-July, the TPLF declared the 2022 Pretoria peace deal “effectively dead”.