TODAY

Rescue workers in one Caracas neighbourhood say no help has arrived, two days after twin quakes tore through the city. Al Jazeera’s Noris Soto says aftershocks are making the search for survivors harder and rescue efforts are turning to the recovery of bodies.

Only competitions involving professional athletes will be held, with all other activities cancelled.

This weekend’s Diamond League track and field meeting in Paris will go ahead as planned despite the historic heatwave gripping the country and stretching emergency services, organisers said.

Hours after Paris police authorities said they wanted the event cancelled, the French Athletics Federation (FFA) confirmed on Friday that it would take place on Sunday at Charlety Stadium, in agreement with the police prefecture.

Citing the exceptional heat that has affected Paris since June 21, the police prefecture had asked organisers of the meet, and other events scheduled this weekend, including a music festival and a Pride march, to cancel.

The prefecture said it would be forced to comply with the order if they didn’t agree voluntarily, as emergency services needed to concentrate their efforts on protecting the most vulnerable people.

Noah Lyles, Femke Bol and Mondo Duplantis are among the athletes expected to compete in Paris.

The FFA, which organises the meet, said it would be staged in “an adapted format designed to ensure the safety of all participants”.

Only competitions involving professional athletes will be held, with all other activities cancelled.

“Since the beginning of this extreme weather event, the French Athletics Federation has been closely monitoring the situation in constant coordination with government authorities. The safety of athletes, coaches, volunteers, officials, spectators and all staff involved remains our highest priority,” the FFA said.

Among the measures put in place to mitigate the effects of the heat, the FFA cited delaying the opening of the stadium gates to the public, reinforcing medical and emergency services, and providing additional drinking water stations and shaded areas.

The average temperature recorded at 30 weather stations by the Meteo France weather agency on Thursday reached 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) again, matching the record for the hottest day nationwide set the previous day.

More than three-quarters of France has been placed under a red weather alert for the first time.

The US has struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites in retaliation for what it says was an Iranian attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The tit-for-tat has raised doubts about the stability of the US-Iran agreement, as Kimberly Halkett reports.

Gary and Sarah Andrews’s daughter Wynter died 23 minutes after she was delivered by Caesarean section at the Queen’s Medical Centre on 15 September 2019 after repeated warning signs of her being in distress had been missed.

Wynter died from a loss of oxygen flow to the brain – which an inquest found could have been prevented had staff delivered her earlier.

Sarah, 41, had been admitted to hospital on 14 September, six days after initially experiencing contractions.

The inquest heard the maternity unit was “busy” when she arrived, with information on the patient’s history not properly handed over to other staff at shift changes.

The inquest found Wynter may have survived if “multiple missed opportunities” had been spotted.

In what would become a recurring theme about warning signs being missed, the coroner cited a 2018 letter from midwives to bosses at the trust, outlining concerns over staffing levels as “the cause of a potential disaster”.

“The grim predictions… were indeed realised some 10 months later when Wynter died as a result of the unsafe practices warned about,” coroner Laurinda Bower said.

The Care Quality Commission (CQC) prosecuted NUH over her death in January 2023, with the trust pleading guilty to care failures.

The criminal prosecution resulted in NUH being fined £800,000.

Families are sharing details about their loved ones online as more than 50,000 people remain missing after two devastating earthquakes hit Venezuela on Wednesday night. Rescue teams and local residents are still digging through the rubble on Friday, hoping to find survivors.

Deaths of immigrants held in US detention centres have surged during Donald Trump’s second term.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, has called for an independent investigation into the severe uptick in deaths in migrant detention centres during President Donald Trump’s second term in office.

In a statement on Friday, Turk expressed concern over the lack of transparency over those deaths, at least 19 of which have occurred so far this year, according to US government statistics.

“Those responsible for violations of the law must be held to account, and the rights of the victims’ families to truth, justice and reparation and guarantees of non-recurrence must be upheld,” the UN rights chief said.

Deaths in immigrant detention centres have surged during Trump’s second term in office, a by-product of what rights groups and immigration lawyers have depicted as systematic neglect, inhumane conditions and abuses.

The Trump administration has sought to rapidly expand the network of immigrant detention centres, some operated by private contractors, as it seeks to carry out the mass deportation of immigrants in the US.

Trump stated in a social media post on Friday that his administration has the “Highest Average Daily Arrest Rate by ICE and CBP, including Total Detention, with Final Orders of Removal, than any other president, by far!”

The reported death of a Georgian man, Mamuka Artmeladze, in a detention facility in Louisiana on June 4 increased the number of fatalities so far this year to 19, compared to 33 last year and 11 in 2024.

“The mortality rate of deaths in ICE custody is at its highest level in over a decade and has more than doubled since Trump’s second term began,” the watchdog group Human Rights Watch wrote in a report on detention deaths earlier this month. “The rate is nearly four times that of the Biden administration and more than two and a half times as high as that of the first Trump administration.”

That report said the 52 people who have died in detention during Trump’s second term ranged in age from 19 to 75 and came from 20 different nationalities.

Turk wrote on Friday that there have been “concerning allegations regarding the use of force” at such facilities and that five of the deaths recorded in 2026 were classified as suicides.

He also expressed concern over the reported use of solitary confinement, which is associated with a heightened risk of suicide and considered a form of torture by the UN after a period of 15 days.

“All these factors exacerbate vulnerability and raise serious concerns as to whether some of these deaths in ICE custody could have been prevented,” he said.

An Israeli attack on a vehicle in the central Gaza Strip has killed three Palestinians and injured several more.

Palestine’s Ministry of the Interior and National Security condemned the attack, which took place in Maghazi refugee camp in Deir el-Balah on Friday, saying that the victims were all police officers.

“Their vehicle was treacherously bombed by the Israeli occupation forces,” said a ministry statement published on Telegram.

It named the three deceased as Captain Mansour Sami Shahtout, Captain Mohammed Khaled Nofal, and First Sergeant Mahdi Nader Jabr.

Palestine’s Wafa news agency said an Israeli combat drone targeted a vehicle near the entrance of the Maghazi refugee camp, while Anadolu news agency reported that the Israeli drone fired at least two missiles at the vehicle, causing it to catch fire, which resulted in the deaths and injuries.

Witness video accounts showed a civilian vehicle burning after it was struck on Salah al-Din Street at the entrance of Maghazi camp.

The bodies were reportedly taken to Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir el-Balah.

“The Ministry of Interior condemns the heinous crime committed by the occupation in targeting civil police personnel, an act that demonstrates a persistent intent to spread chaos across the Gaza Strip,” the ministry added in its statement.

It reiterated its “call on the international community and the guarantor states of the ceasefire agreement to exert pressure on the occupying forces to cease their repeated targeting of the police force, its personnel and its resources.”

The US-brokered “ceasefire” agreement has been in effect in Gaza since October 10, 2025, though violations have continued to be reported across the enclave, with Israel continuing its attacks.

According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, Israeli violations of the “ceasefire” agreement have killed 1,031 Palestinians and injured 3,309 others as of Thursday. In total, since Israel’s genocidal war began in October 2023, more than 73,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza.

Gaza ‘ceasefire’ developments

As attacks on the ground continue, Hamas said that consultations are ongoing with other Palestinian factions and regional mediators to reach understandings that would ensure the full implementation of the Gaza “ceasefire” agreement.

“These discussions concern the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement, including what remains of the first phase and mechanisms for implementing the second phase,” Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told Anadolu on Friday.

He added that a delegation from Hamas and other Palestinian factions is expected to visit Cairo in the coming days to deliver its response to newly proposed approaches.

Qassem said Palestinian factions had previously reached understandings that were welcomed by mediators, before Board of Peace envoy Nikolay Mladenov presented what he described as “different approaches” that are currently under final review by Hamas and the factions.

“We hope the efforts of the mediators and Mr. Mladenov will lead to compelling the occupation to implement what was agreed upon, particularly the humanitarian provisions of the first phase, and then move to the second phase with all its complexities,” Qassem said.

Regarding the situation on the ground, Qassem accused Israel of committing major and continuous violations of the ceasefire agreement, including restrictions on humanitarian aid and continued killings.

He told Anadolu more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire entered into force, adding that Israel had expanded the “yellow line” into new areas of Gaza, accompanied by displacement and home demolitions.

“These violations require, first, a clear stance from the mediators to pressure the occupation, and second, serious work to bring the national committee into Gaza so a genuine relief and reconstruction process can begin,” he said.

“We do not want the starvation policy imposed on our people to be repeated while the world remains a spectator. Nor should the killing and destruction continue while the world watches,” he added.

The Supreme Court’s ruling allowing the administration of US President Donald Trump to do away with a special legal status for Haitians and Syrians has sent shockwaves through communities across the country.

Immigration advocates say the 6-3 majority decision allowing the Trump administration to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) will have a resounding impact on nationals of Haiti and Syria, raising the spectre of deportation and family separation, while likely leaving US employers in the lurch.

But the ruling is set to have more far-reaching implications, advocates have warned, creating a new tool to “empower Trump’s ICE deportation machine to take away legal protections and work permits from hundreds of thousands of people”, according to Hector Sanchez Barba, the president of the Mi Familia Vota advocacy group.

“This has been a defining element of the Trump- [White House adviser Stephen] Miller campaign of cruelty, revoking legal or temporary status, taking away work permits and forcing immigration judges to dismiss cases to accelerate detentions and deportations,” Barba said in a statement following Thursday’s ruling.

Here’s what to know.

What does the ruling mean for Haitians and Syrians on TPS?

Temporary Protected Status (TPS) was created by Congress as part of the Immigration Act of 1990. It allowed the executive branch, particularly the Secretary of Homeland Security, to declare that it is unsafe for foreigners to return to their home countries in light of extraordinary temporary conditions, such as armed conflict, natural disasters or other internal crises.

When a country is designated under TPS, its nationals are granted temporary legal status to reside and work in the US.

Haiti was first designated for TPS following the devastating earthquake in 2010, which killed over 250,000 people. The status has been repeatedly renewed as the Caribbean nation has suffered overlapping political, security and humanitarian crises.

Syria has been designated for the status since 2012, after the start of the civil war which lasted almost 14 years.

All told, about 350,000 Haitians and about 6,000 Syrians are believed to be in this status.

Immigration advocates say the ruling will send TPS recipients scrambling to find other legal pathways to stay in the US or become deportable under Trump’s mass deportation drive.

Given that both countries have been designated for TPS for over a decade, the decision also raises the spectre of family separation, particularly for parents with children born in the US.

“Ending these protections for hundreds of thousands of Haitians and thousands of Syrians will tear families apart, disrupt workplaces and communities and place vulnerable individuals at risk,” Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) national executive director Nihad Awad said.

“Many TPS holders have lived in our nation for years, raised American children, built businesses, contributed to our economy and become integral members of their communities.”

What does it mean for US employers?

Several labour organisations and unions have underscored the impact the sudden change in status could have on US industries.

Neidi Dominguez, the executive director of Organized Power in Numbers, called the ruling a “gut punch that requires workers, immigrant communities and the employers who rely on them to hit back together through our organising”.

“They work in hospitality, food service, education, construction, health care and every industry,” Dominguez said. “These are our coworkers, our neighbours and the backbone of the economy across this country, from service to construction and healthcare.”

The healthcare industry is expected to be particularly hard-hit by the decision, with the Migration Policy Institute finding that Haitian immigrants held over 103,000 healthcare jobs in 2021.

“This unconscionable ruling will leave thousands more immigrants – not just registered nurses and healthcare workers, but also teachers, airport workers, hard-working people – vulnerable to the Trump administration’s deadly, money-making deportation machine,” the National Nurses United union said in a statement.

“This decision will further strain our healthcare workforce and worsen the nurse staffing crisis,” it said.

Why does this extend beyond Haitian and Syrian TPS?

Lower courts had previously ruled that the Trump administration did not follow proper procedures, including conducting an inter-agency review to determine that conditions in both countries had improved, in terminating TPS for Haiti and Syria.

But, as Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a Senior Fellow at the American Immigration Council, explained, the Supreme Court’s majority ruling did not even address whether the Department of Homeland Security Secretary had followed the legally mandated procedures in terminating TPS.

“Rather, the Court said that questions of whether the DHS secretary followed the law cannot be heard by courts in the first place,” he wrote, “meaning that in the future even an openly unlawful decision to grant or terminate TPS could be entirely insulated from judicial review”.

The ruling will further allow the Trump administration to “return to federal court in other cases and overturn decisions ruling against the termination of TPS for countries such as Venezuela, Somalia, Ethiopia and others”, he added.

Angelica Sedgwick Oun, a US immigration researcher at Human Rights Watch, said the ruling “leaves the DHS secretary with unfettered power to make a life-and-death decision about whether it is safe enough to send someone back to a country facing rampant violence, like Haiti, or conflict, like Syria, without meaningfully consulting on human rights conditions there”.

What comes next?

Because the Supreme Court is the top appellate court in the US, there is little recourse available through the judiciary.

But an array of advocacy groups have called on Congress to intervene.

In a rare bipartisan move on immigration, the US House of Representatives in April passed an extension to Temporary Protected Status for Haitians until 2029. The Senate has not yet taken up the measure.

Others have called on Congress to pass legislation to assert a process for courts to review any TPS terminations.

A viral World Cup campaign tapped into a familiar conversation among Egyptian football fans, prompting debate over hope, expectation and decades of World Cup disappointment. Al Jazeera’s Yasmeen ElTahan explains.

The advertisements all start the same way. It could be a barber, an aunt or a family member in discussion with others about the FIFA World Cup, but in each case, they assume Egypt will be heading home after the group stage.

Then an Egyptian footballer pushes back: “To all the doubters, this time we’re staying longer.”

It’s a line that’s resonating like never before in the nation of 120 million people, as Egyptian football fans wait with bated breath for the final round of group stage matches that could send The Pharaohs, as the national team are known, into uncharted territory: the knockout stages.

Here’s why these commercials have captured the zeitgeist in Egypt:

Egypt’s poor World Cup track record

Egypt was the first African and Arab nation ever to play in a World Cup, back in 1934. It has won the Africa Cup of Nations a record seven times. Football in Egypt isn’t just a sport, it’s a national identity, and The Pharaohs have long been a source of genuine pride and belief.

But the World Cup has always told a different story. Before this tournament, Egypt had qualified just three times — in 1934, 1990 and 2018.

It had never won a single match. Fans still carry the painful memories of a penalty shootout loss to Senegal that kept Egypt out of the Qatar World Cup 2022 entirely.

What’s different this time?

Everything — at least, so it seems.

After two games at the World Cup, Egypt sits at the top of Group G, above Iran, Belgium and New Zealand.

The 26th ranked Egypt drew 1-1 with Belgium — ranked 10 in the world — in its first match. Then, it beat lower-ranked New Zealand 3-1.

Its four points are the most Egypt has ever earned at a World Cup. Its four goals are the most Egypt has ever scored at a World Cup.

Now, on Friday night in Seattle — early Saturday morning in Egypt — the team faces Iran in their final group game. A win or a draw would guarantee that Egypt’s national team goes into the knockout stages for the first time.

If Egypt loses to Iran, they might still make it to the round of 32, but their fate will depend on what happens in the Belgium-New Zealand match that will be held at the same time, and potentially, on the outcomes of matches in other groups. Eight of the 12 teams places third in their groups will also move into the next round.

So in a nutshell, Egypt is on the cusp of going where it never has before — and only a rare set of permutations can deny it that chance.

But it isn’t just the performances. Part of what makes this year feel different, to many fans, is the identity of the main man standing outside the pitch, next to the Egyptian dugout.

Hossam Hassan is Egypt’s all-time top scorer and one of the most iconic figures in the country’s football history. In 1990, he scored the goal that ended a 56-year wait and sent Egypt to the World Cup in Italy. Now, more than three decades later, he is the national team’s coach, making him the first Egyptian ever to reach the World Cup as both player and manager.

For older fans, his presence carries the memory of a time when Egypt genuinely believed it could make its mark on the world stage.

So what are the advertisements really about?

They aren’t really making fun of the team. They’re making fun of the deeply ingrained expectation that Egypt won’t go very far. And that expectation, many argue, goes beyond football. Years of economic hardship and political uncertainty have made expecting the worst feel like common sense for many Egyptians. They protect themselves from disappointment. They assume it won’t work out before it doesn’t.

That’s what has also made the campaigns somewhat divisive. For some viewers, the humour felt honest — a reflection of a habit fans know they have. It prompted real questions about why low expectations have become so normal. Others argued the advertisements risked making those same low expectations feel permanent, even acceptable.

Either way, they underscore how the 2026 World Cup has reignited faith among Egyptian fans, as they wait for the Iran match. An advertisement campaign challenging doubters has come to reflect the broader hopes, doubts and debates surrounding The Pharaohs.

President says his country will readmit genuine nationals but insists Europe must first verify deportees’ identities.

Mogadishu, Somalia – The European Union has imposed visa restrictions on Somali citizens, escalating a dispute with Mogadishu over the return of Somalis living in Europe illegally.

The bloc’s member states approved the measures on Thursday, acting on a report that Somalia was not doing enough to take back nationals who had been refused the right to stay.

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud pushed back, saying his government would readmit its citizens, but said that many returnees were not Somali nationals.

“We haven’t rejected our people; they own this country. And we cannot reject them,” the president said at an Independence Day event on Thursday, adding that Somalia had “questions about how those people would be returned.”

People across the Horn of Africa share a similar appearance, he said, and some present themselves as Somali to claim asylum in Europe. He pointed to past cases in which individuals sent back as Somalis turned out not to be, including some who “don’t know the Somali language.”

“If they are Somali, then we’ll take them. If they aren’t, we’ll help you find out where they are from, and you can send them there,” Mohamud said.

The pressures driving people to leave are rooted in decades of upheaval.

Somalia is still rebuilding after the collapse of its central government in 1991 and the long civil war that followed.

Recovery efforts have been stifled by the ongoing armed rebellion of al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked armed group that has waged deadly attacks since 2006.

Those conditions have pushed many young Somalis to attempt the dangerous journey to Europe, often through Libya, where migrants have faced detention, extortion and violence.

The prime minister regularly handled such cases, Mohamud said, adding that Somali embassies had been instructed to help citizens return.

Magnus Brunner, the bloc’s migration commissioner, said countries of origin had to meet their commitments “otherwise, there can be consequences.”

A European Commission assessment concluded that Somalia’s cooperation on readmission was insufficient.

Under the new rules, member states can no longer issue multiple-entry visas to Somalis, and the fee waiver for holders of diplomatic passports has been removed. The standard processing time for visa applications has also been extended from 15 to 45 days.

The suspension has no fixed end date and is intended as leverage to push Mogadishu towards closer cooperation.

Somalia now joins a short list of countries hit with such measures.

The EU imposed similar restrictions on The Gambia in 2021 and Ethiopia in 2024, lifting the Ethiopian curbs in May after deciding cooperation had improved.

The visa restrictions add to a run of setbacks for Somali travellers.

The United States imposed a sweeping travel ban in 2025, after President Donald Trump returned to office, covering citizens of a dozen countries, including Somalia.

The policy drew attention this month when Omar Abdulkadir Artan, named Africa’s referee of the year in 2025, was denied entry to the US and couldn’t officiate at the World Cup, despite holding a valid visa.

The standoff comes as the EU tightens its wider approach to migration, pursuing return centres beyond its borders and faster deportations for people refused the right to stay.

Jorge Rodríguez, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly, said 250 buildings had been damaged or lost, mostly in La Guaira.

Photos and videos showed debris strewn on the streets. In some footage, people can be heard calling for help.

The BBC has verified footage of a 10-storey hotel reduced to rubble in La Guaira, and another video that recorded people screaming and fleeing as a multi-storey collapses in El Junquito, west of Caracas.

Other verified footage shows destruction further from the capital. One video shows a multi-storey building, reportedly a hotel, totally collapsed in Tucacas, on Venezuela’s coast, about 250km (155 miles) northwest of Caracas.

Mayor Gustavo Duque of Chacao, which forms part of the greater metropolitan area of Caracas, said on Thursday outside the rubble of one collapsed building that 11 people had died there and 23 had been rescued.

In an Instagram video, he said the team was trying to clear the rubble so that specialists could go in “to reach people who are hopefully still alive”.

“We’re trying to rescue as many people alive as possible,” he said.

Fuel supplies into the city have been cut off and internet blackouts have also been reported.

Activists have used thermal cameras to show the extreme temperatures outdoor workers are facing during Europe’s summer heatwaves, with one construction worker shown enduring surface temperatures above 65°C.

The Turkish Air Force looks set to receive a major boost to its fighter fleet, with the delivery of dozens of F110 engines required to power the homegrown TF Kaan combat jet. This would be one of the most significant positive developments in U.S.-Turkish defense relations since Turkey was ejected from the F-35 program in 2019, and may even pave the way for Ankara to rejoin that effort.

Citing four sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reports that President Donald Trump’s administration plans to go ahead with the engine sale, said to be worth more than $700 million, despite some resistance from Congress.

Ahead of his July trip to a NATO summit in Turkey, Trump was asked by a reporter whether Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan would be provided with a “big gift” in the form of F110 engines and potentially F-35 fighter jets.

“He’s a member of NATO,” Trump replied. “He really is a strong member of NATO. Yeah, I’m going to probably do something that’s going to make him very happy.”

Speaking alongside Trump, Vice President JD Vance said a review was underway to see if Turkey could receive the F-35.

“Pete and the entire team are reviewing this right now, because there are certain things that we have to certify have happened … in order to comply with American law,” Vance ⁠said, referring ​to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

The question of whether Turkey might receive F-35s has long been a fraught one, with Ankara kicked out of the program back in 2019, a development we will return to later.

For now, however, Turkey’s priority seems to be securing F110 engines.

Turkey’s TF Kaan next-generation fighter is a flagship program of the country’s burgeoning aerospace industry. The program was launched in 2010, and the first prototype took to the air in early 2024.

Reportedly, Turkey plans to complete three pre-production prototypes, to be followed by 250 series-production aircraft, incorporating various refinements.

Last month, a contract was reportedly signed for 20 examples of the initial Block 10 versions of the Kaan.

The twin-engine Kaan was developed with a reduced radar signature in mind, as well as a high level of performance and modern avionics and other systems. As a result, it doesn’t offer the same level of low observability as the F-35, while its sensor fusion, electronic warfare capabilities, and other ‘fifth-generation’ features lag behind the U.S.-designed jet.

Critically, the Kaan is powered by U.S.-supplied General Electric F110 turbofans.

F110s are assembled under license in Turkey by TUSAS Engine Industries (TEI) but are still governed by U.S. export restrictions. These engines are already used in significant numbers by the Turkish Air Force F-16 fleet, the third-largest in the world. Outside of the F-16, the F110 is also used in the F-15E Strike Eagle and F-15EX Eagle II, among other F-15 variants. An F110 comes with a typical flyaway unit cost of $10 to $15 million.

The Kaan program has long been overshadowed by the question of whether Washington will make available in larger numbers the F110 turbofans used in the prototype. Reportedly, an initial batch of 80 engines is required.

While Turkish officials have expressed hope of ultimately switching to a domestically produced engine type for the Kaan, TEI’s TF35000, it’s unclear how realistic this is, at least in the near term. Turkey has also looked at acquiring alternative engines, too, including those from Russia or Rolls-Royce in the United Kingdom.

In the meantime, the importance of the Kaan to the Turkish Air Force increased significantly in 2019, when it became clear that Ankara would be kicked out of the F-35 program, in which it had a considerable industrial stake, and a plan to buy around 100 of the fighters. Washington took that decision after Turkey refused to abandon its purchase of Russian-made S-400 long-range air defense systems.

As well as the S-400, U.S. lawmakers were unhappy with Turkey’s worsening relations with Greece, its other connections with Russia and Azerbaijan (which included the deployment of F-16s to the latter country), its conduct in the Syrian civil war, and human rights abuses. Turkey’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO also proved to be a significant hurdle.

In the wake of all this, the chances of Turkey receiving F110 engines were dramatically reduced. At the same time, Turkey’s request to buy additional F-16 fighters was also turned down. Turkey reportedly also began stockpiling spare parts for its F-16 back in 2019, fearing the effects of U.S. sanctions.

Toward the end of the Biden administration, U.S.-Turkish relations began to improve, and Washington moved to push through sales of new F-16s and upgrade kits for older jets to Turkey. There also began to be suggestions that the F-35 was potentially back on the table for Turkey.

Under the Trump administration, Washington’s relationship with Ankara has become closer, with Erdogan frequently praised by the U.S. leader.

In early 2024, the U.S. State Department finally approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Turkey of 40 new F-16C/D Block 70 fighters, plus the upgrade of 79 existing aircraft to F-16V configuration.

At the same time, the issue surrounding the S-400 and the sanctions that followed that acquisition remains.

As it stands, U.S. law does not permit Turkey to operate or possess the S-400 system if it wishes to rejoin the F-35 program, as a result of security concerns around the Russian-made system.

During a visit to Turkey in early 2024, the U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland reportedly suggested that the United States might be willing to offer Patriot air defense systems if it were to give up its S-400s, which could also clear the way to re-entering the F-35 program.

“Frankly, if we can resolve this S-400 issue, which we want to do, the United States would be pleased to welcome Turkey back into the F-35 family,” Nuland said. “But we must solve this other issue first, and while we solve it, we must also ensure that Turkey has a strong air defense.”

The apparent decision to clear the F110 sale certainly represents a further softening of Washington’s stance, and it could be a stepping-stone to Ankara eventually being readmitted to the F-35 program.

Turkey’s desire for F-35s has only been intensified by the fact that Greece, its major strategic rival, has been approved for a purchase of the jets. You can read all about how tensions between Greece and Turkey are reflected in the countries’ respective air forces in this previous feature.

Even regarding the F110 transfer, some opposition to defense sales to Turkey remains in Washington.

In particular, Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, the leading Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, has reportedly stood in the way of the engine sale during an informal review process.

However, according to the four sources who spoke to Reuters, the F110 deal should be “finalized in the coming days, followed by a formal notification from the State Department to Congress.”

While lawmakers can use the congressional review process to raise their concerns over big-ticket defense exports, the administration can override these.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration is expected to override Meeks’ effort to block the engine deal.

For the Kaan program, the F110 is vital.

Denied the F-35 and with F-16 deals moving forward only slowly, Turkey has been forced to look elsewhere to meet its short-term fighter needs. Most significantly, it signed a deal for 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets last October.

Turkey has also been investing heavily in drones, including the ANKA-3, a low-observable flying wing uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), and the fighter-like Bayraktar Kizilelma. Still, these are viewed as adjuncts to advanced crewed fighters, like the Kaan.

Whether securing the F110 engines means the Kaan meets its target of service entry around the 2030 timeframe remains questionable.

However, it is a major step in that direction.

As well as being fielded by the Turkish Air Force, the Kaan could have significant potential for export, although sales would be governed by U.S. restrictions on its engines. It is one of a number of medium-weight fighters that feature low-observable characteristics and advanced avionics. These include China’s FC-31 and South Korea’s KF-21.

Reportedly, Indonesia already signed a contract for 48 Kaan fighters last June.

Perhaps most importantly, the F110 deal would get back on track what is very much the flagship of Turkey’s military aerospace industry. At the same time, a U.S. decision to provide Ankara with these engines will also be welcomed by those in Turkey who still wish for a way back into the F-35 program.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The extreme June temperatures would have been ‘virtually impossible’ 50 years ago, says the World Weather Attribution group.

The historic heatwave gripping Europe is part of a dangerous weather trend that can only be explained by human-caused climate change, scientists have said.

The extreme temperatures sweeping across much of Europe mark the region’s “most severe” heatwave ever tracked for the month, and would have been “virtually impossible” half a century ago, the World Weather Attribution group of scientists said in a report released on Friday.

Millions in France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe have been experiencing blazing heat this week, with daytime temperatures topping 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in many places.

The heatwave was reported on Friday to be moving eastwards, threatening Germany and central Europe with similar conditions to those which killed dozens in the western reaches of the continent, strained medical services and stressed the economy.

The World Weather Attribution estimated that a heatwave with similar characteristics occurring in the climate of June 1976 – when Europe was also hit by persistently high temperatures – would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius cooler.

During another episode in 2003, temperatures would have been about 2 degrees Celsius cooler, the research suggests.

The analysis shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly, even within living memory, “with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago,” the study says.

“This event would not have been possible in June without climate change,” the study’s lead author, Theodore Keeping from Imperial College London, told reporters.

Phasing out fossil fuels ‘critical’

The planet has warmed about 1.4C above pre-industrial times, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Scientists agree this is making extreme weather events like heatwaves more frequent and intense, and that limiting warming is vital to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Of the nearly 850 cities the World Weather Attribution’s study analysed in Europe, some 45 percent had broken – or were expected to break – their all-time heat stress records in June.

“The weather pattern itself is not particularly unusual, but the temperatures are – or at least they used to be without human-induced climate change,” said Friederike Otto, the cofounder of World Weather Attribution.

The June heatwave in Europe is the second such episode this year. An early-season period of heat in May brought temperatures more typical of high summer to central and western parts of the continent.

World Weather Attribution said the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is “critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future”.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has restored the flow of oil and natural gas after more than 100 days of disruption, but the crisis has already left a lasting mark on global energy markets. The prolonged closure exposed the vulnerability of the world’s energy supply chain and has prompted governments to reconsider how they secure fuel supplies.

Analysts say the crisis mirrors the impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which transformed global energy policy by encouraging conservation, diversification, and strategic stockpiling. While today’s energy system proved more resilient, the Hormuz disruption may accelerate a broader shift away from fossil fuels.

What Happened?

The Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, remained effectively closed for more than three months during the US Israeli conflict with Iran.

Despite the disruption, global markets avoided a severe supply crisis through rapid rerouting of cargoes, the release of strategic reserves, reduced Chinese imports, and shifting demand patterns.

However, analysts say these emergency measures were only temporary. Energy inventories fell sharply during the crisis, and markets were approaching a critical point before shipping resumed.

Why the Crisis Matters

The Hormuz disruption demonstrated that even today’s highly interconnected global energy system remains vulnerable to geopolitical conflict.

Unlike previous crises, the world avoided a complete energy collapse because governments, traders, and shipping companies quickly adapted. Nevertheless, the episode exposed the limits of those emergency responses and reinforced concerns about overreliance on a single strategic chokepoint.

The crisis is expected to influence long term energy investment decisions far beyond the Middle East.

Lessons From the 1973 Oil Embargo

The 1973 Arab oil embargo fundamentally changed global energy policy after oil producing nations restricted exports to countries supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War.

The embargo caused oil prices to surge, triggering inflation and prompting governments to adopt fuel efficiency standards, develop domestic oil production, establish strategic petroleum reserves, and create the International Energy Agency.

Rather than ending fossil fuel use, the crisis encouraged countries to consume energy more efficiently while reducing dependence on imported oil.

A New Energy Strategy Emerges

The Hormuz crisis appears to be driving another major strategic shift, particularly across Asia.

Countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas are increasingly prioritizing energy security over low fuel costs. Governments are expected to expand strategic petroleum reserves while accelerating investment in domestic renewable energy, nuclear power, and alternative fuel sources.

India, Pakistan, Japan, and South Korea are among the countries reviewing long term strategies aimed at reducing exposure to overseas energy disruptions.

Europe Continues Its Energy Transition

Europe entered the Hormuz crisis after already reshaping its energy system following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The loss of Russian energy supplies forced European countries to cut gas consumption, diversify imports, and rapidly expand renewable energy capacity.

The latest Middle East disruption is expected to reinforce that trend by encouraging further investment in clean energy and energy efficiency while reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Investment Trends Support the Shift

Global investment patterns already suggest that energy markets are evolving.

According to the International Energy Agency, worldwide energy investment is projected to reach 3.4 trillion dollars this year, with much of the growth directed toward renewable energy, electricity infrastructure, battery storage, and grid resilience rather than new oil production.

Electric vehicle sales continue to rise rapidly across Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific, while Chinese solar panel exports have surged across Africa and Southeast Asia.

Governments are also increasing spending on energy efficiency, with around 20 countries introducing new conservation measures directly in response to the Hormuz crisis.

Why It Matters

The Hormuz crisis has reinforced that energy security is becoming just as important as energy affordability.

Rather than relying solely on global oil markets, governments are increasingly pursuing diversified energy systems that combine fossil fuels with renewables, nuclear power, strategic reserves, and domestic production.

This transition is expected to influence investment, industrial policy, and international trade for years to come.

Future Outlook

Oil and natural gas are expected to remain central to the global economy for decades, particularly in transportation, manufacturing, aviation, and power generation.

However, future growth in fossil fuel demand may become significantly slower as governments invest more heavily in renewable energy, electric vehicles, battery storage, and efficiency improvements.

The Hormuz crisis may ultimately be remembered not as the event that ended the oil era, but as the moment many countries accelerated preparations for a more diversified energy future.

Implications

The Hormuz crisis is likely to have consequences that extend far beyond the immediate recovery in oil and gas flows. Governments that experienced supply disruptions are expected to place greater emphasis on energy security, even if it comes at a higher economic cost. This could accelerate the expansion of strategic petroleum reserves, diversify import sources, and increase investment in domestic energy production, including renewables, nuclear power, and critical energy infrastructure.

For oil exporters in the Gulf, the crisis may strengthen the case for developing alternative export routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, reducing dependence on a single maritime chokepoint. Import dependent economies, particularly across Asia, are also likely to rethink long term procurement strategies by securing more flexible supply contracts and expanding storage capacity.

Financial markets are also expected to assign a higher geopolitical risk premium to energy prices. Even after shipping has resumed, investors may continue to price in the possibility of future disruptions, increasing volatility across oil, gas, shipping, and insurance markets. The crisis could also accelerate capital flows into technologies that reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, including electric vehicles, battery storage, hydrogen, and energy efficiency.

Analysis

The Hormuz crisis may ultimately prove more significant for what it revealed than for the physical disruption it caused. Although global energy markets demonstrated remarkable resilience, that resilience depended on temporary measures such as drawing down inventories, rerouting cargoes, reducing consumption, and relying on spare production capacity. These mechanisms bought time rather than solving the underlying vulnerability of the global energy system.

Unlike the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which primarily forced consuming nations to improve efficiency while expanding fossil fuel production elsewhere, today’s crisis occurred at a time when commercially competitive alternatives to oil and gas already exist. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, battery storage, and advanced power grids have matured into viable strategic assets rather than purely environmental investments. As a result, governments are increasingly viewing clean energy not only as a climate policy but also as a national security priority.

Another important distinction is the shift in investment behavior. Historically, supply disruptions often encouraged greater investment in oil exploration and production. Following the Hormuz crisis, however, a growing share of capital is moving toward energy diversification instead of simply increasing fossil fuel output. This suggests policymakers increasingly see reducing oil dependence as a more sustainable way to improve resilience than expanding strategic reserves alone.

The crisis also exposed a structural imbalance in global energy markets. While production remains concentrated in politically sensitive regions, demand growth is increasingly centered in Asia, leaving major importers highly exposed to geopolitical instability. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Japan, and South Korea may therefore pursue parallel strategies of securing diversified hydrocarbon supplies while rapidly expanding domestic renewable generation, nuclear power, and energy storage.

Perhaps the most important takeaway is that energy security has overtaken cost as the dominant driver of policy decisions. For decades, governments largely optimized their energy systems for affordability and efficiency. The Hormuz disruption demonstrated that the cheapest energy source can quickly become the most expensive if geopolitical events interrupt supply. That realization is likely to reshape government policy, corporate investment, and global energy trade for years to come.

The crisis does not signal the immediate end of the oil era. Oil and natural gas will remain indispensable for transportation, petrochemicals, aviation, heavy industry, and electricity generation in many regions. However, it may represent an inflection point where the trajectory of fossil fuel demand begins to flatten as countries systematically reduce their strategic dependence on imported hydrocarbons. In that sense, the Hormuz crisis could be remembered less as an energy supply shock and more as the catalyst that accelerated the next phase of the global energy transition.

With information from Reuters.

As two powerful earthquakes hit Venezuela, west of Caracas, in quick succession on Wednesday, the country’s capital sustained extensive damage.

Authorities were continuing to search for people under the rubble of collapsed buildings on Friday as 235 people were confirmed to have been killed, with 4,300 more injured.

Here is more about why Caracas has sustained so much damage.

How badly damaged is Caracas?

A magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck about 160km (100 miles) west of Caracas, followed less than a minute later by a magnitude 7.5 tremor, the strongest since 1900, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).

Jorge Rodriguez, head of Venezuela’s national assembly and brother of interim President Delcy Rodriguez, said earlier in the day that 200 people had been trapped, with 250 buildings damaged or destroyed nationwide.

In Caracas and nearby coastal areas, at least eight hospitals, the headquarters of the Venezuelan Red Cross and the French embassy were among buildings reported to have been badly damaged.

Initial assessments released on Thursday put the estimated economic damage at between 1 and 7 percent of Venezuela’s $111bn gross domestic product (GDP). Authorities have not yet provided a separate estimate for losses in the capital.

However, the heaviest damage has been reported in Caracas itself, Al Jazeera’s Teresa Bo, reporting from Bogota in neighbouring Colombia, said on Thursday.

Public infrastructure was also heavily damaged, with acting President Rodriguez reporting power outages in Caracas.

Health Minister Carlos Alvarado said late on Thursday that 235 people had been confirmed dead at medical centres across Venezuela. He also told state media that about 4,300 people had been reported injured so far. Hundreds more are feared trapped or missing under the rubble.

How badly has the city been damaged in previous earthquakes?

This is not the first time Caracas has suffered heavy damage in an earthquake.

In 1812, a powerful earthquake roiled the cities of Merida and Caracas, killing about 30,000 people, according to the USGS. The tremors caused near-total destruction of Caracas’s colonial architecture, flattening homes, churches and public institutions.

In 1967, another earthquake hit the city, causing several high-rise buildings to collapse and killing 240 people.

Why has Caracas been so hard-hit?

Venezuela has a long history of devastating earthquakes because it is located along the boundary between the Caribbean and South American tectonic plates.

Caracas is also in a deep sedimentary basin, which amplifies the seismic waves from earthquakes, Vashan Wright, a geophysicist at the University of California in San Diego, told Al Jazeera.

Another reason Caracas is so vulnerable to damage from earthquakes is that its buildings and infrastructure are not specifically designed to withstand tremors and are often standing on insecure ground.

Al Jazeera’s Teresa Bo said the heaviest damage in Caracas occurred in the Altamira district, where emergency crews pulled survivors from the rubble of a 22-storey building while relatives searched for missing family members. Officials said they are still assessing the full extent of the destruction.

“For example, in the [hard-hit] area of Altamira in Caracas, many of the buildings that collapsed are built on sediments, and this makes them much more vulnerable to seismic waves,” Bo said.

“Also, there’s lots of informal housing in several areas across the country, and those types of buildings are not prepared to sustain very strong earthquakes,” she added.

Adequate urban planning and building codes, which incorporate seismic activity, require substantial funding, which Venezuela can ill afford as it has long been subject to heavy sanctions from the United States and other Western countries.

While some sanctions have been lifted since the US abducted former President Nicolas Maduro in a military strike on Caracas in January and he was replaced by Rodriguez, Caracas is still grappling with the effects of decades of underinvestment.

Another issue for Caracas is that at about 7.8km, the earthquakes were shallow, which means they were more destructive than deeper quakes of the same magnitude would have been.

In deeper earthquakes, much of the energy dissipates as it moves through layers of rock. By contrast, shallow ones release their energy closer to the ground, producing stronger shaking and greater damage in populated areas.

How many people live in informal housing in Caracas?

People living in informal housing are more at risk than others during earthquakes because low-cost, self-built housing structures, often built on hillsides and other slopes, are not resilient against tremors.

The slums in Caracas are known as barrios and are densely populated, lacking proper infrastructure. They comprise self-constructed housing or structures built with unreinforced cinderblocks or bricks, often without formal foundations or steel reinforcement, mostly on the mountainous hillsides surrounding the capital.

The lack of proper urban planning, coupled with construction on steep slopes, makes the barrios vulnerable to natural disasters.

While there is no official figure for the number of Venezuelans living in informal settlements in Caracas, academic estimates suggest they account for 40 to 50 percent of the city’s nearly five million residents.

According to the latest National Survey of Living Conditions (ENCOVI), about 55 percent of Venezuelans are living in poverty.

Which countries are better prepared for earthquakes?

Many parts of the world have adapted infrastructure with seismic engineering. Many earthquake-prone countries now plan and construct buildings with damage mitigation from tremors in mind.

Japan, one of the most quake-prone nations in the world, has strict building codes, which means many structures survive shaking that would devastate poorly built homes in parts of Indonesia or Central America. In most inland earthquakes, the majority of deaths and injuries are caused when poorly built structures collapse rather than by the shaking itself.

Japan has made enormous public investments in seismic research and has superior access to advanced engineering technologies like base isolation, which involves the installation of massive steel or rubber shock absorbers beneath the foundations of buildings.

This is why global deaths and destruction from earthquakes have reduced in the past decades. For instance, in 1556, the deadliest earthquake in recorded history in China’s Shaanxi killed about 830,000 people. In 2023, an earthquake hit northwestern China near the Shaanxi province, killing 127 people.

The US Supreme Court has sided with the Trump administration in its bid to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians and Syrians. The ruling allows the policy to take effect before the courts have reached a final decision on its legality.

The U.S. Air Force is set to hold a classified meeting with defense contractors to share its requirements for a new air-to-air missile with a maximum range of at least 1,000 nautical miles. This is roughly 10 times the reach afforded today by the latest versions of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM). An anti-air missile with this kind of extreme range would be especially well-suited for attacks on critical airborne early warning and control planes, as well as tankers and other high-value aerial assets operating in rear areas. The Air Force is also already interested in an air-to-surface version of this new weapon, which it has dubbed the Air Force Long Range Weapon (AFLRW).

The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s (AFLCMC) Armament Directorate (EB) issued a notice yesterday regarding the planned AFLRW industry day gathering. The two-day meeting is currently scheduled to take place at the Guided Weapons Evaluation Facility (GWEF) at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida on August 25 and 26. The Air Force says the event will be held at the Secret classification level and that all attendees have to have appropriate security clearances.

“The AFLRW is aimed at addressing the next generation of Air-Launched Standoff Weapon variants in line with Department of War priorities,” according to the industry day notice. “AFLRW may select multiple vendors for both the Air-to-Air (A/A) and Air-to-Surface (A/S) variants with a focus on A/A solutions for Initial Operational Capability.”

“Both [AFLRW] variants will have a threshold minimum range of 1,000 NM [nautical miles] and be capable of striking respective A/A and A/S targets in Defense Planning Scenario 2.1 and 7.1 environments in a responsive manner,” the notice adds. It does not elaborate on what those specific scenarios entail.

The notice also puts particular emphasis on modular components and open-architecture systems, and finding a “Master Integrator” to combine the various elements into a complete missile, or all-up-round.

“Industry should expect a quick-turn Whitepaper Request for Information following the event focused on the 2 solution types above for both variants,” per the notice. “AFLCMC is seeking the next generation of Air-Launched Long-Range Weapon variants that expand the United States’ ability to hit priority air, land, and sea targets far and fast!”

Beyond the range threshold, the notice does not include any other details about requirements the Air Force may have now for the AFLRW. That being said, a desire for an anti-air missile able to hit targets at least 1,000 nautical miles away is very notable by itself.

Though the exact figures are classified, the AIM-120D-3 version of the AMRAAM, the latest model in widespread U.S. service, is generally understood to have a maximum reach of around 100 miles (close to 87 nautical miles). There have been hints that it may be able to fly out further than that, at least against targets in certain envelopes. Longer-range versions of the AIM-120 may now be in development. A known key requirement for the new AIM-260A Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM) has also been extended reach over the AMRAAM. Still, even the JATM, which the U.S. Navy and Air Force are developing together, is not expected to have anywhere near the range required for the AFLRW.

It is worth noting here that the Air Force almost adopted a very long-range, high-speed missile designed to engage both air and surface targets during the Cold War. However, the maximum range of that Advanced Strategic Air-Launched Missile (ASALM) was still only expected to be 300 miles (260 nautical miles).

Starting in the mid-2000s, the Air Force and the Navy also worked together on a Joint Dual-Role Air Dominance Missile (JDRADM), intended as a single weapon to supplant the AIM-120 and variants of the AGM-88 anti-radiation missile. This evolved into the Next Generation Missile (NGM), which came to a close, at least publicly, in 2013, ostensibly over rising costs. A more secretive Triple Target Terminator (T-3) program, which had initially been conducted in parallel with JDRADM/NGM, continued afterward for at least some period of time. In 2017, a possible successor to T-3, the Long Range Engagement Weapon (LREW), but the fate of that effort is unclear.

In February, the Navy put out its own new call for a long-range anti-radiation missile capable of engaging air and surface targets, dubbed the Advanced Emission Suppression Missile (AESM). However, the service did not say what its desired range for this weapon might be at that time. The Navy has already started fielding an air-launched version of the multi-purpose Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), designated the AIM-174B. TWZ has previously assessed the AIM-174B to likely be in the same range category, broadly speaking, as the Cold War-era ASALM. We have previously explored in detail how the AIM-174B slots into the Navy’s long-range kill chains.

How The Navy’s New Very Long-Range AIM-174 Will Pierce China’s Anti-Access Bubble

Nothing approaching a range of 1,000 nautical miles appears to have ever been discussed, at least openly, in relation to any of these programs. Interestingly, the Air Force did publicly talk about the prospect of anti-air missiles with ranges of up to 1,000 miles in a report to Congress in December 2024. However, the report mentioned them as part of a projected threat ecosystem the service envisions taking shape by 2050.

“Counterair weapons with ranges out to over 1,000 miles and supported by space-based sensors will place aircraft, such as tankers, that have traditionally operated with impunity, at risk,” the Air Force’s 2024 report said. This offers a hint at the kinds of capabilities it is looking to add to its own arsenal through the AFLRW effort.

After the Navy put out its AESM contracting notice, TWZ also highlighted the value of such a missile for targeting vital airborne early warning and control assets. This is often referred to as the ‘AWACS killer’ role, which references the E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft. As we previously wrote:

“All that being said, the value of an ‘AWACS killer’ missile is clear-cut. AEW&C are critical surveillance and battle management assets. Shooting them down deprives an opponent of those capabilities, inherently reducing their ability to effectively maneuver air assets and share important information, including with other nodes on the ground or at sea, as well as in the air. Knocking out these flying radar stations, which can be especially well-suited to spotting lower flying threats from their high perches, just hampers an enemy’s overall situational awareness.”

“The issue, of course, is that AEW&C planes typically orbit well behind the front edges of a conflict, creating additional challenges for targeting them. This is where something like AESM could come into play. A weapon of this type could engage other aerial targets by zeroing in on the radiofrequency emissions they pump out. This could include electronic warfare aircraft, and potentially other aerial targets. AESM might be able to take on a more general anti-air role with the addition of an active radar and/or imaging infrared seeker, as well as datalinks allowing for the use of networked targeting data. [The AGM-88E] AARGM and [AGM-88G] AARGM-ER both feature an active millimeter-wave radar seeker to enable them to hit fleeing ground targets, but a similar concept could be adapted for air-to-air use.“

AARGM F-18

“For the Navy, as well as other branches of the U.S. military, this is all particularly relevant in the context of a potential future high-end fight with China, which has made major investments in its fleets of AEW&C and electronic warfare planes. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has also been pursuing ever-longer-ranged anti-air missiles, including types that could be used to target American AEW&C platforms, as well as other key support aircraft.”

In that piece, we also touched on the potential for the AIM-174B to help meet U.S. military needs for an ‘AWACS killer’ missile. With the ability to hit targets in the air, as well as down below, out to at least 1,000 nautical miles, AFRLW would be a dramatic step above even the AIM-174B in capability.

The Pacific region offers a host of practical examples to give a better sense of what this kind of reach means. The distance between U.S. bases on the Japanese island of Okinawa and Taiwan is roughly 390 nautical miles. The distance between Andersen Air Force Base on Guam and Taiwan is around 1,500 nautical miles. AFLRW-armed aircraft flying over the East China Sea or the northern end of the South China Sea would conceivably be able to engage targets with hundreds of missiles inside the Chinese mainland, as long as suitable targeting data was available. The AFLRW’s range would be relevant on other potential hotspots globally, as well.

AFLRW would give the Air Force a way to pick off airborne early warning and control aircraft, as well as tankers, bombers, other kinds of surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, and potentially even unsuspecting tactical jets. The missiles would be able to do so without necessarily alerting them to the fact that they are being targeted at all, at least till it’s too late to escape. Having air-to-air missiles that can go after targets at such great ranges means the need to project tactical airpower and support aircraft far forward and deep into harm’s way for the counter-air mission would be less critical, at least during the first opening stages of a conflict. By eliminating key force multiplying aircraft with long-range weaponry, conditions would be better for the survivability of traditional counter-air packages.

On top of offering a new way to hold higher-value targets in rear areas at risk, AFLRW would give Air Force aircraft added flexibility to engage targets closer to the tactical edge, but not necessarily near where they might be flying at any one time. In the aforementioned Pacific scenario, areas of active combat in the air and on the surface could easily be dotted across a broader zone spanning thousands of square miles.

As mentioned, the Air Force also sees anti-air threats being able to reach further and further out. This means stand-off munitions, in general, will need greater reach to help reduce the risk to launch platforms. The AFLRW’s range recommendation is a tacit admission that the U.S. military will face growing challenges piercing adversary anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) bubbles, especially the ones that China has established and is continuing to expand on. It also highlights the increasing risks to friendly airborne early warning and control aircraft, tankers, and other supporting aerial assets needed for sustained air combat operations. Chinese air-to-air missiles are already outreaching their American counterparts, and the U.S. is working to change that now with AIM-174, AIM-260 and other programs.

There are still questions about what it might take to develop a feasible AFLRW with at least a 1,000 nautical mile range, and what might be able to carry a missile with that kind of reach. It is worth remembering here that the Air Force has openly talked about the possibility of the B-21 Raider bomber taking on a greater role in air-to-air combat in the future, which might include acting as a ‘weapons truck’ loaded with anti-air missiles. The aforementioned ASALM was also intended primarily for employment from bombers. For bombers like the B-21, the AFLRW would also just offer a valuable organic way to address threats in the air and down below, potentially hours ahead of arriving over the target area.

The AFLRW will also have to cover the very long distances it flies at least relatively quickly, especially to be relevant for attacking time-sensitive or otherwise fleeting targets. This might require a multi-stage or air-launched ballistic missile-like design or even something more exotic.

There is also the question of targeting at such extreme distances. These weapons will not rely on the sensors and targeting information generated by the platforms they are launched from. Above all else, the AFLRW will, by default, have to be tied into a deeply networked ‘kill web’ that brings together tertiary sensors and other supporting elements across vast networking layers. That ‘web’ would be spread across the air, land, sea, space, and even cyberspace domains, and incorporate assets from other branches of the U.S. military beyond the Air Force.

Above all else, the space-based aircraft tracking layer will be very important when it comes to enabling this weapon. The Air Force’s 2024 report on future threats confirmed this. The U.S. military itself is actively working to field new distributed satellite constellations to provide potentially game-changing persistent air and ground moving-target indicator (AMTI/GMTI) capability globally, with exactly these kinds of long-range kill chains in mind, as you can read more about here. Very stealthy aircraft working farther forward that are in line-of-sight of potential targets are another way these weapons can be employed. The USAF also has just such a platform.

Much remains to be learned about the Air Force’s plans for the air-to-air and air-to-surface versions of the AFRLW, and what other requirements the service has for those missiles. The industry day gathering scheduled for August will provide the service with additional information about what options might be available and on what timeframe.

Regardless, the Air Force has now made clear publicly that it wants a solution that can kill planes a thousand miles away from the launch aircraft. This matches all the signals that the Pentagon has been sending indicating it is very concerned about its ability to pierce an enemy’s protective bubble in the years ahead. Above all else, it points to a new era of net-centric warfare where the kill web is truly king.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com