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Iran says it has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which it largely closed after being attacked by the U.S. and Israel. The move was prompted by a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy. However, the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports enacted on Monday remains in place, President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social social media site.

All this comes as the U.S. and Iran appear closer to reaching a deal to end the war, which we will discuss in greater detail later in this story. The temporary ceasefire between the two countries ends April 21.

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Rep. of Iran,” Sayyed Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, stated on X Friday morning.

That route is a narrow five-mile stretch between the islands of Qeshem and Larak, roughly 15 miles from the Iranian shoreline.

In a post on his Truth Social site, U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the decision but said it did not change the ongoing blockade.

“THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE,” Trump stated. “THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED.”

The president added that “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!” However, there was no immediate response from Tehran.

Regarding any peace deals, Trump said on his Truth Social network that the “U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’ created by our great B2 Bombers – No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form.”

This was a reference to the Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iranian nuclear facilities last year.  Iran is believed to have about 440.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% of the explosive uranium isotope, U-235 stored at these locations.

“This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer,” Trump added.

It remains to be seen how this will play out. Iran’s state TV, citing a senior military official, highlighted that “only civilian vessels will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via designated routes and with permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.”

“The passage of military vessels through the strait remains prohibited,” it said.

Despite the closure, ships have still transited the strategic body of water through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas exports pass. Ship traffic through the Strait actually “increased from last month’s unusually low levels, with crossings rising and activity extending across a broader mix of vessel types and cargoes,” according to the global trade intelligence firm Kpler.

There is also still the issue of mines in the section of the Strait outside the Qeshem-Larak passage. Demining is one of the issues being discussed today in an international meeting being held in Paris, a French official told us. We’ll discuss this meeting in a little more detail later in this story.

Trump, however, claimed that “Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed or is removing all sea mines!”

We have reached out to shippers and maritime analysis and security firms to get a clearer picture of what this decision means from their perspectives.

“This is good news,” a spokesman for Hapag-Lloyd told us. “There are still some open questions on our end, but they might be resolved within the next 24 hours. Top priority for the passage is safety and security for the seafarers, the vessel and the cargo of our customers. If all open issues are cleared (i.e. insurance coverage, clear orders of Iranian government/military about the exact sea corridor to be used and the sequence of ships leaving) we would prefer to pass the strait as soon as possible. Our crisis committee is in session and will try to resolve all open items with the relevant parties within the next 24-36 hours.”

The reopening of the Strait “marks a turn for global shipping, as it allows over 750 vessels previously trapped in the Middle East Gulf to begin clearing approximately $17 billion in stranded energy and dry bulk cargoes,” Kpler told us. “As of April 17, 2026, there are 862 vessels currently operating within the Mideast Gulf. The core of the backlog is composed of approximately 187 laden tankers carrying roughly 172 million barrels of crude and refined products, along with a specialized cluster of 15 LNG vessels that remain almost entirely stalled following the collapse of recent ceasefire talks.”

The Strait reopening and a looming new round of peace talks appears to have provided a boost to the world economy.

“Oil prices are falling by more than 10%, and Wall Street is rallying toward another record after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, which would allow oil tankers to exit the Persian Gulf again and carry crude to customers worldwide,” The Associated Press reported. “The S&P 500 rallied 0.7% as U.S. stocks sprinted toward the finish of a third straight week of big gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, and the Nasdaq composite added 1%.”

Stocks “have rallied more than 11% since late March on hopes that the United States and Iran can avoid a worst-case scenario for the global economy,” the wire service added.

BREAKING: President Trump and Iran’s foreign minister say the Strait of Hormuz is now fully open. Crude oil prices tumble 10% after the announcements. https://t.co/d44au7X8UP

— The Associated Press (@AP) April 17, 2026

UPDATES

Our coverage for the day has concluded.

UPDATE: 5:45 PM EDT–

Trump told CBS News that Iran has “agreed to everything,” and will work with the U.S. to remove its enriched uranium.

He insisted that doing so will not involve U.S. ground troops. But when asked who would retrieve it, he would only say “our people.”

“No. No troops,” he told the network. “We’ll go down and get it with them, and then we’ll take it. We’ll be getting it together because by that time, we’ll have an agreement and there’s no need for fighting when there’s an agreement. Nice right? That’s better. We would have done it the other way if we had to.”

The president said the material would then be brought to the U.S.

“Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States,” he said.

NEWS President Trump tells me:

-No ground troops will be required to remove enriched uranium from Iran

-Iran has agreed to stop backing all proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas

-I asked if Iran has agreed to stop enriching uranium *forever.” He said, “They’ve agreed to…

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) April 17, 2026

UPDATE: 5:24 PM EDT –

Speaking to the White House press corps, Trump addressed questions about the peace process.

“We’ll see how it all turns out, but it should be good, some very good discussions, and hopefully that subject that you like to talk about will be very good,” he said. “And we’ve done a good job, but we’ll see … the talks are going on and going over the weekend, and a lot of good things are happening that includes Lebanon.”

Asked about differences with Iran on how all this is developing, Trump said: “If there are, I’m going to straighten it out. .. don’t think there’s too many significant differences.”

As for the blockade: “When the agreement is signed, the blockade ends,” he proclaimed.

Earlier on Friday, Iranian officials said they would close the Strait again if the blockade is not lifted.

“We’ve had some very good discussions… Talks are going on. It’ll go on over the weekend — and a lot of good things are happening,” says @POTUS in Arizona.

“As soon as the agreement gets signed, that’s when the blockade ends.” pic.twitter.com/PjNlBvwSAo

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 17, 2026

UPDATE: 1:34 PM EDT –

Trump told Axios that U.S. and Iranian negotiators will probably meet this weekend, and he expects them to hammer out a final deal to end the war. The deal should come “in a day or two,” Axios reporter Barak Ravid added on X.

UPDATE: 1:28 PM EDT –

Trump told Reuters on Friday that the U.S. will work with Iran to recover its enriched uranium ​and bring it back to the United States.

“We’re going to get ‌it together. We’re going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery… We’ll bring it back to the United ​States,” Trump said during a phone interview.

The ⁠United States will work ‌with Tehran to recover its enriched uranium and bring ​it back to ‌the United States, President Donald Trump told Reuters on Friday.

“We’re going to get it together. ‌We’re going to go in with Iran, at ⁠a nice leisurely pace, and go ‌down ​and… pic.twitter.com/ZfwJTFrIbr

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) April 17, 2026

UPDATE: 1:17 PM EDT –

Seyyed Mohammad Mehdi Tabatabaei, a spokesperson for Iran’s president, pushed back on Trump’s claim that Iran promised never to close the Strait again.

“The Twitter rhetoric and baseless statements of the enemy are aimed at stripping the Iranian nation of their sense of pride for the great victories they have achieved through their resolute defense,” he stated on X. “The conditional and limited reopening of a portion of the Strait of Hormuz is solely an Iranian initiative, one that creates responsibility and serves to test the firm commitments of the opposing side. If they renege on their promises, they will face dire consequences.”

لفاظی‌های توئیتری و اظهارات بی‌پایه دشمن، در جهت سلب احساس افتخار ملت ایران برای پیروزی‌های بزرگی است که در دفاع مقتدرانه کسب کرده‌اند.
بازگشایی مشروط و محدود بخشی از تنگه هرمز ، صرفا ابتکاری ایرانی، مسئولیت‌آفرین و برای آزمون تعهدات قطعی طرف مقابل است. بدعهدی کنند، بد می‌بینند.

— سيد مهدي طباطبايي (@tabaei1356) April 17, 2026

UPDATE 12:51 PM EDT –

Iran considers the continuation of the U.S. blockade on its ports a ceasefire violation and would close the Strait of Hormuz again if the blockade is not lifted, the IRGC-affiliated Fars News reported citing an informed source close to the Supreme National Security Council.

We’ve reached out to the White House for comment.

Iranian official to Fars:

If the maritime blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz transit route will be closed.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 17, 2026

With new talks potentially set to be held in Pakistan over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, Axios reported Friday morning. One of the key elements under discussion is “that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium,” the outlet noted, citing two U.S. officials and two additional sources briefed on the talks.

The Memo of Understanding (MoU) also states the two sides are negotiating over a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran. It also deals with the Strait of Hormuz, “though the sources said there are still significant gaps on that issue,” Axios posited.

It’s unclear if the MOU refers to Iran’s ballistic missiles and its support for regional proxies.

🚨 SCOOP: The U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. https://t.co/w84Yd8JHgp

— Axios (@axios) April 17, 2026

“Trump is directly talking to the Iranians,” U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Fox News. 

“He is negotiating himself,” Graham proffered. “He was on the phone with the Iranians a couple of days ago, and it got rather sporty—to the point that Trump loudly told Iran what would happen if they keep playing games. He actually lost his voice. I’d hate to be the Iranian on the receiving end of that.”

Senator Graham:

Trump is directly talking to the Iranians. He is negotiating himself.

He was on the phone with the Iranians a couple of days ago, and it got rather sporty—to the point that Trump loudly told Iran what would happen if they keep playing games.

He actually lost… pic.twitter.com/rMPjT9SYYc

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 17, 2026

Despite rising hopes that the war in Iran could soon end, the country’s deputy foreign minister on Friday rejected any call for a temporary ceasefire. Instead, Tehran is seeking a comprehensive end to conflict across the Middle East, Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters today. That includes fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, currently paused on the first full day of a shaky 10-day ceasefire.

“We are not accepting any temporary ceasefire,” Khatibzadeh said on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum hosted by Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. Any end to the fighting must include all conflict zones “from Lebanon to the Red Sea,” he added, describing it as a “red line” for Iran.

The cycle of violence “should end here once and for all,” Khatibzadeh continued, according to Al Jazeera.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) said it is ready to resume fighting if needed.

The Army and the IRGC have their “finger on the trigger” and are “prepared to deliver a powerful, destructive, and regret-inducing response to any aggressive or criminal action by the US-Israeli enemy and their allies against the Iranian nation,” the IRGC said Friday.

As we noted earlier in this story, the leaders of nearly three dozen nations met – mostly virtually – at a conference in Paris today to discuss the future of the Strait of Hormuz.

Co-chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the conference on the Initiative for Maritime Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz looked at ways of protecting shipping after the fighting ends.

Starmer said the U.K. and France will lead a multinational mission to “protect freedom of navigation” in the Strait as soon as conditions permit. He added that the mission would be “strictly peaceful and defensive,” with the aim of reassuring commercial shipping and supporting mine clearance efforts.

Starmer invited other countries to join, saying that roughly a dozen countries had committed to contributing assets.

Kaja Kallas, European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission, said leaders also discussed ensuring that Iran imposes no tolls on passage through the Strait.

“Any pay-for-passage scheme will set a dangerous precedent for global maritime routes,” she stated on X. “Iran has to abandon any plan to levy transit fees. Europe will play its part in restoring the free flow of energy and trade, once a ceasefire takes hold.”

Kallas added that the EU’s Aspides naval mission is already operating in the Red Sea “and can be quickly strengthened to protect shipping across the region. This could be the fastest way to provide support.”

Yesterday, a spokesman for Aspides told us that there were no changes in its mission.

Under international law, transit through waterways like the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and free of charge. This is what leaders made clear in their call on reopening the Strait today.

Any pay-for-passage scheme will set a dangerous precedent for global maritime routes.… pic.twitter.com/Jeufv4hQou

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) April 17, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

The EU’s special representative for the Gulf said Saturday that any lasting solution for the Middle East must be led by countries in the region rather than imposed from outside, Anadolu reports.

Speaking at a panel during the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in southern Turkiye, Luigi Di Maio said the current crisis in the Gulf is another sign of the “further erosion of international law.”

“If we want to try to find a solution for avoiding again another crisis, like the ongoing crisis or a wider crisis, a farther spillover, we need to work all together,” he said.

Di Maio said the EU remains committed to multilateralism and international law, while stressing that Europe does not want to be “part of this war.”

At the same time, he said European countries are supporting Gulf partners in self-defense, including intercepting drones and missiles from Iran under bilateral agreements.

READ: US, Iran likely on Monday to hold 2nd round for technical talks in Islamabad: Sources

He also warned that instability in the Gulf affects the wider world, not only because of oil and gas, but also due to trade in fertilizer, helium for semiconductors and other goods moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Di Maio said the collapse of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal showed the importance of involving regional countries in negotiations.

“Every solution for the Middle East has to be a region-led process,” he said.

He said stronger connectivity and defense cooperation can make the region more resilient to future crises, adding that “autonomy does not mean isolation.”

He praised mediation efforts by Turkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, saying they had helped secure a ceasefire and could contribute to a broader agreement.

READ: French soldier killed in attack on UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon: Macron

UN Children’s Fund calls on Israeli authorities to investigate and ‘ensure full accountability’.

The United Nations Children’s Fund says it is “outraged” after Israel killed two drivers it had contracted to deliver clean water to families in Gaza.

UNICEF said in a ⁠statement the incident occurred during routine water trucking on Friday morning at the Mansoura water filling point in northern Gaza, which supplies Gaza City. Two other people ‌were wounded in the attack.

The agency said it had suspended activities at the site and called on Israeli authorities to investigate and “ensure full accountability”.

“Humanitarian workers, essential service providers, and civilian infrastructure, including critical water facilities, must never be targeted,” it said.

It said that “the protection of civilians and those delivering life-saving assistance is an obligation under international humanitarian law”.

More than 750 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the US- and Qatar-brokered “ceasefire” in Gaza took effect last October, according to Palestinian health authorities.

More than 72,000 people have been killed since Israel launched its genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza on October 7, 2023, following a Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Meanwhile, in the occupied West Bank, a Palestinian man was shot and killed by Israeli forces in Khirbet Salama, the official Palestinian news agency WAFA reported.

Muhammad Ahmad Suwaiti, 25, was pronounced dead at the scene, WAFA said.

Israel’s military said a person carrying a knife in the illegal settlement of Negohot was killed. It did not say who was responsible.

Using the biblical term for the West Bank, the Israeli military said in a statement that “a terrorist who infiltrated the community of Negohot in Judea and Samaria was identified and eliminated in a rapid response”.

Israeli forces and settlers have killed more than 1,060 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank since the start of the Gaza war in October 2023, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

Tehran, Iran – United States President Donald Trump’s announcements about securing major concessions from Tehran have riled supporters of the Iranian establishment, prompting rejections and clarifications from the authorities.

Several current and former senior officials, state media and the Islamic Republic’s hardcore backers expressed anger, frustration, and confusion after the US leader made a series of claims, with days left on a two-week ceasefire reached on April 8.

Trump on Friday said Iran and the US would jointly dig up the enriched uranium buried under the rubble of bombed Iranian nuclear sites, and transfer it to the US. He claimed Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium on its soil.

He also said the Strait of Hormuz had been opened and would never be closed again, while the US naval blockade of Iran’s ports remained in place, and sea mines were removed or were in the process of being removed.

Trump also emphasised that Iran would not receive billions of dollars of its own frozen assets abroad due to US sanctions, and that the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was completely unrelated to Iran.

Amid Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to mediate another round of negotiations, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian delegation to the Islamabad talks earlier this month, rejected all of Trump’s claims.

“With these lies, they did not win the war, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either,” he posted on X early on Saturday.

By Saturday noon, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released a statement, saying the Strait of Hormuz is once again heavily restricted and under “strict management” of the armed forces. It cited continued “acts of piracy and maritime theft under the so-called label of a blockade” by Washington as the reason.

‘Haze of confusion’

In the hours it took between Trump’s flurry of announcements on Friday and official responses from Iranian authorities, supporters of the establishment voiced serious concerns about any major concessions.

“Is there no Muslim out there to talk to the people a bit about what is happening?!” Ezzatollah Zarghami, a former state television chief and current member of the Supreme Cyberspace Council that controls the heavily restricted internet in Iran, wrote on X.

Alireza Zakani, the hardline mayor of Tehran, said if any of Trump’s claims are true, then the Iranian establishment must beware “not to gift the vile enemy in negotiations what it failed to achieve in the field”.

A fan account on X for Saeed Jalili, an ultrahardline member of the Supreme National Security Council who has opposed any deals with the US for decades, said “dissent” may be at play. It said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen or heard from outside of several written statements attributed to him, must release a voice or video message to confirm what is happening.

Jalili’s main account distanced itself from the comment, saying the fan account – which was subsequently deleted – was a sign of “infiltration” by enemies of Iran who were trying to sow discord.

Iranian state media released another written statement attributed to Khamenei on Saturday to mark Army Day, but made no mention of the political drama unfolding hours earlier, or the negotiations with the US.

The dissonance was clearly on display on state television and other state-linked media on Friday, especially those affiliated with the IRGC.

Multiple state television hosts and analysts harshly attacked Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi because he tweeted on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz was “declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation”.

One of the hosts demanded Araghchi must immediately clarify. Another said the top diplomat’s tweet was in English, and since the Iranian people do not have access to X due to the state-imposed near-total internet shutdown for seven weeks, the message was not directed at the people.

With a huge Hezbollah flag in the background, a furious presenter on state television’s Channel 3 claimed that Araghchi was somehow “the representative of the people of Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq” because they are a part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” of armed forces, so he should demand concessions on their behalf from Trump.

Morteza Mahmoudvand, a representative for Tehran in the Iranian parliament, went as far as saying Araghchi would have been impeached had it not been for “the excuse of war”.

The Fars and Tasnim news sites, which are affiliated with the IRGC, also heavily criticised Araghchi and called for further explanations on Friday evening, with Fars arguing that “Iranian society was plunged into a haze of confusion.”

Armed supporters in the streets

Critical comments from supporters of the Iranian government also flooded social media, including local messaging applications and the comments section of state-run sites.

“We took to the streets every night with clear demands, but you shook hands with the killer of our supreme leader and handed our strait to the Zionists,” one user wrote on Friday in the local app Baleh, in reference to Israel.

“After all these years of sanctions and war and costs imposed on the people, if you are to give up the uranium and the strait, then why did you play with the people’s livelihoods and the blood of the martyrs for so long?” another user wrote.

A large number of analysts and media personalities, including Hossein Shariatmadar, the head of the Kayhan newspaper, who was appointed by late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also voiced criticism and demanded answers on Fars and other outlets.

Regardless of whether there will be more mediated negotiations in Pakistan or whether the war will continue, Iran continues to encourage and arm backers to take to the streets to maintain control.

State media on Friday aired footage of more armed convoys moving through the streets of Tehran while waving the flags of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi and other groups. The video below shows women and children crewing heavy machineguns mounted on the back of pick-up trucks during a rally in downtown Tehran.

With no end in sight to the state-imposed internet shutdown that has wiped out millions of jobs in Iran, in addition to steel factories and other infrastructure that were destroyed, the Iranian economy continues to suffer.

The timing of the back-and-forth between Trump and the Iranian officials meant that oil prices dropped before Western markets closed on Friday, and the Iranian currency experienced more volatility.

The rial was priced at about 1.46 million against the US dollar on Saturday morning, the first day of the working week in Iran. But it shot back up to about 1.51 million after the IRGC announced the repeated closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Reports of Iranian gunboats opening fire on a tanker in strait, after Tehran said it is closing the waterway until the US lifts the blockade of its ports.

Iran says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz again, calling the decision a response to a continued blockade of its ports by the United States.

The Iranian military on Saturday said control of the strategic waterway, through which 20 percent of the global oil flows, has “returned to its previous state”, with reports saying Iranian gunboats fired at a merchant vessel as it attempted to ‌cross.

The closure of the strait came hours after it was reopened, with more than a dozen commercial ships passing through the waterway, after a US-mediated 10-day ceasefire deal was reached between Israel and Lebanon.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Saturday said in a statement, cited by the Iranian media, that the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports represented “acts of piracy and maritime theft”, adding that the control over Hormuz is “under the strict management and control of the armed forces”.

“Until the US restores full freedom of navigation for vessels travelling from Iran to their destinations and back, the status of the Strait of Hormuz will remain tightly controlled and in its previous condition,” it said.

By 10:30 GMT on Saturday, no fewer than eight oil and gas tankers had crossed the strait, but at least as many ships appeared to have turned back, having begun to exit the Gulf, the AFP news agency reported.

The toing and froing over the strait cast doubt on US President Donald Trump’s optimism the day before, that a peace deal to end the US-Israel war on Iran was “very close”.

Trump had celebrated the reopening of the strait on Friday, but warned the US attacks would resume until Iran agreed to a deal, which included its nuclear programme.

“Maybe I won’t extend it,” Trump told reporters on board Air Force One about the temporary ceasefire agreement in place. “So you’ll have a blockade, and unfortunately we’ll have to start dropping bombs again.”

Asked whether a potential deal could be made in this short timeframe, Trump said: “I think it’s going to happen.”

But Iran says no date has been agreed for another round of peace talks, accusing the US of “betraying” diplomacy in all negotiations.

The conflicting and changing reports about the strait and how much freedom ships have to transit through it have deterred many vessels from crossing, according to John-Paul Rodrigue, a maritime shipping specialist at Texas A&M University.

“Ships have been attempting transit since the announcement, but it looks like many of them are heading back because the situation is unclear,” Rodrigue told Al Jazeera. “There is contradictory information being issued by all parties.”

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said “uncertainty is the name of the game” as far as the Strait of Hormuz is concerned.

“Iran is looking for a comprehensive end to the war across the region, security assurances, sanctions relief, the unfreezing of frozen assets, regional relations – and on top of all of that – the nuclear dossier and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium,” he said.

“But right now, uncertainty is the name of the game. The fragile situation makes it hard to talk about the possibility of successful negotiations down the road.”

Michael Shoebridge, Director of Strategic Analysis Australia, says the US may be forced to end its blockade of Iran in order to see the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude falls more than 9 percent after Iran said it will reopen the strategic waterway, only to shut it down again over US blockade of its ports.

Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest point in weeks after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open for passage during a ceasefire in Lebanon, and United States President Donald Trump said he expected to ⁠reach a deal to end the war soon.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell more than 9 percent to $90.38 a barrel on Friday, taking it below $91 for the first time since March 10.

The plunge came after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the strait was “completely open” and would remain so for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which took effect on Friday.

Hailing Tehran’s announcement, Trump declared the waterway “ready for business and full passage,” but said the US Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports would remain in “full force” until the sides reached a peace deal.

On Saturday, however, Iran rowed back on its decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it would continue to block transit through the key waterway as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect.

The announcement came after Trump said the blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear programme.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through Hormuz and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher once again.

Amid the escalation, Pakistani officials say they are trying for more talks between the US and Iran ahead of the April 22 ceasefire deadline.

Meanwhile, ship tracking data displayed by MarineTraffic earlier on Saturday showed a significant uptick in vessels crossing the strait, which is located between Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

“It’s busy out there, the busiest I’ve seen it since the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed at the beginning of the war,” Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at maritime intelligence firm Windward, said in a post on X.

“Last night there were few ships taking the risk but overnight there seems to have been a change.”

While Iran allowed a limited number of vetted ships to transit the waterway since the start of the war, traffic has remained at a trickle compared with pre-conflict levels.

The near-total closure of the strait has triggered one of the worst energy shocks in history, driving up fuel prices and prompting governments to roll out emergency measures.

Oil prices have swung wildly since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, hitting a post-conflict peak of $119 a barrel on March 19.

There is another way to read the ongoing Middle East crisis, one that makes legible what standard analysis consistently struggles to explain. It begins not with capability but with the geometry of the system through which capability must travel to produce effects. The United States and its partners possess overwhelming military superiority over Iran, and that superiority is not in question, yet the conflict has produced a pattern that defies its logic. A superpower coalition has been unable to impose coherent strategic outcomes against an adversary operating through proxies, low-cost disruption, and the systematic exploitation of global commercial vulnerabilities.

Over the past two years, we have seen multiple instances of this kind of disruption with consequential effects on the global system. Houthi drones force the rerouting of global shipping, with Red Sea cargo volumes falling by roughly 50% through early 2024 as major carriers diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding up to two weeks to transit times, driving freight costs sharply higher across European markets, and costing Egypt nearly $800 million per month at peak in lost Suez Canal revenue. A non-state network spanning Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Gaza has absorbed sustained air campaigns, targeted eliminations of senior commanders, and repeated ground operations without losing its capacity to generate coordinated pressure across multiple theaters simultaneously. The asymmetry seems to follow a deliberate strategic logic that raw power analysis struggles to read, precisely because the conflict operates on a surface that capability assessments were never designed to map. What this suggests is that the decisive variable is not what actors possess but whether the relationships connecting them can transmit coordinated action when the system is under strain.

When that system cannot coordinate, something important breaks down. An alliance that formally exists but faces operational friction at every decision point ceases to be an alliance in any meaningful strategic sense. A security guarantee that cannot be transmitted rapidly to the partner it is meant to protect has, in effect, already failed its primary function. It follows that the gap between what a system formally is and what it can actually do under pressure is not a secondary consideration but the surface on which this conflict is being decided. Conventional analysis, calibrated to count warheads and assess intentions, consistently leaves this gap unmapped.

Analysts know that Saudi Arabia’s OPEC production decisions have repeatedly positioned Riyadh against Washington’s economic preferences, they know that European energy dependency complicates transatlantic alignment, and they know that Iran’s proxy network extends across five countries and absorbs military pressure without fracturing. Yet what the available frameworks cannot do is convert that knowledge into a structural reading of the system. They show that these conditions exist. What they cannot show is how those conditions interact, where they compound, and what the aggregate geometry of their interaction means for whether coordinated action is possible at all.

Power analysis was built to read capability differentials between states, and it does that well. Alliance theory was built to read the conditions under which formal commitments hold or fail, and it does that too. Neither, however, was built to read the operational weight of the ties through which capability and commitment must travel to produce effects.

The instruments available are calibrated to answer questions different from those the current situation poses. Deploying them on a problem they were not designed to read produces the consistent failure to explain what is actually happening that has marked analysis of this conflict from the start.

Adjacency mapping is an instrument designed to read that gap by mapping connectivity, by which I mean their operational weight, specifically their capacity to carry coordinated action under strain. What distinguishes it from standard approaches is its unit of analysis. Rather than the actors themselves, it treats the weight of the relationships as primary. The question it asks is not who holds power but whether the ties connecting power-holders can transmit that power when the system needs them to. Two states can be formally allied, operationally integrated in name, and structurally disconnected at the same time, and nothing in standard analysis will tell you which of those conditions is actually operative until the moment of crisis reveals it.

The instrument assigns each significant relationship in the system a weight between 0 and 1, reflecting how frequently the two actors interact operationally, how reliably information moves between them, how the tie has behaved under recent stress, and how quickly it transmits pressure when the system is under strain. At the higher end of the scale, a weight at or above 0.6 indicates that coordination approaches automaticity, and the tie carries load without constant investment to maintain it. Around 0.3, friction accumulates. In this setting, decisions require deliberate effort at every juncture, slowing the system and making it susceptible to gradual degradation that never triggers a visible rupture. At or below 0.2, the tie has effectively ceased to function as a transmission pathway, leaving the actors operationally disconnected regardless of what their formal relationship nominally says.

These weights are analytical judgements calibrated against observable evidence. In other words, their value lies in making visible what experienced analysts already carry as intuition and in giving that intuition a structure precise enough to argue about. The numbers are therefore analytical judgements, not measurements. A more rigorous application would derive them from quantifiable indicators across each dimension, including military interoperability, intelligence exchange depth, crisis responsiveness, economic interdependence, and signaling consistency, averaged and weighted systematically. That work lies beyond the scope of this piece, but the architecture is designed to accommodate it.

There is a risk management dimension to this reading that is worth making explicit. Standard geopolitical risk assessment focuses on actor-level variables such as regime stability, military capability, and leadership intentions. What adjacency mapping adds is a structural layer that those assessments typically miss. A coalition whose load-bearing relationships operate in the friction zone is exposed to a category of risk that capability assessments do not capture and that becomes visible only when the system is read structurally.

What the matrix adds is the ability to see how compound weakness across multiple relationships produces cascading effects that bilateral assessment alone would struggle to predict. A system whose dominant actor holds several weak partnerships faces more than friction. As a consequence, the geometry of those weaknesses determines whether any concerted response is structurally possible at all. Aggregate capability becomes, in that light, secondary to that question.

If we apply this to the Middle East security complex, the instrument produces one possible reading. This reading differs considerably from the picture conventional analysis generates. Its value is not in the precision of the numbers but in making the system’s geometry visible enough to argue about.

The matrix below maps operational connectivity across the system’s key actors. The numbers are analytical judgements, not measurements.

The geometry they make visible is what matters here.

The matrix is intentionally non-symmetric. Where operational influence flows asymmetrically between two actors, the weights reflect that directionality.

The matrix reveals, in this light, a system whose dominant actors are connected at fundamentally different weights. And more significantly, its most important bilateral relationship is operating in the friction zone. It’s formally excluded adversary has constructed the only alternative connectivity architecture in the system. What this implies is that the geometry of the conflict runs considerably deeper than standard alliance analysis tends to suggest.

On the coalition side, the US has high adjacency with Qatar, Bahrain, Israel, and Kuwait, ties that enable rapid coordination and require little maintenance, constituting the operational backbone of what Washington can actually activate quickly.

Its relationship with Saudi Arabia, however, sits at 0.4. That number is analytically more significant than almost anything else in the matrix. Saudi Arabia remains, on most readings, the relationship on which Gulf order coherence formally depends, the anchor of the security architecture since the 1970s, and it is operating in the friction zone where every significant decision requires renegotiation from scratch rather than flowing through an established channel. Saudi Arabia’s invitation to join BRICS in August 2023, yuan-denominated oil transactions with China, and its participation in the Chinese-brokered rapprochement with Iran in March 2023 all point in the same direction. Riyadh is hedging structurally toward China and the broader non-Western order, a posture that sits uneasily alongside its formal security alignment with Washington. Taken together, these are not isolated political episodes but evidence of a tie that has been operating below the coordination threshold for years and whose weakness is, on this reading, the system’s most consequential structural vulnerability.

Through the normalization architecture, the UAE has arguably become the system’s most structurally reliable node at 0.6 with both the US and Israel, its operational integration exceeding Saudi Arabia’s despite Saudi Arabia’s formal primacy. The Abraham Accords of September 2020 established the formal foundation for that integration. The operational depth it has since generated, across intelligence sharing, defence cooperation, and coordinated positioning on Iran, has made the UAE the coalition’s most functionally connected Gulf partner. Oman holds what is perhaps the system’s most anomalous position, meaningful adjacency with both the US coalition and Iran simultaneously, a profile no other state actor in the matrix replicates. That structural position gave Oman the back-channel role it played through the early phases of the conflict, with documented precedent in the secret US-Iran nuclear negotiations that began in Muscat in 2012 and ran through 2013. As the conflict has intensified, Pakistan has assumed the primary mediation function, but Oman’s position as a quiet facilitator has not disappeared; it has simply been supplemented by a node with more direct access to both capitals at this particular moment.

Pakistan has emerged as the conflict’s primary mediation node, hosting the highest-level direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran since 1979 and brokering the April 2026 ceasefire. That role reflects a structural position the matrix makes legible: high Saudi adjacency, a functioning Iran tie, and a rehabilitated relationship with Washington that no other regional actor currently combines. China’s influence over both Pakistani and Iranian decision-making operates as an exogenous pressure that the matrix only partially captures, and Pakistan’s own domestic constraints, including its difficulty developing direct channels with the IRGC, limit how far that mediation role can ultimately reach.

Iran’s position is where the matrix becomes most analytically revealing. Across the state actors in the system, Iran’s adjacency sits at or near fragmentation, built up through sanctions, absent operational channels, and decades of adversarial signalling that have left Tehran formally isolated from the coordination architecture the United States and its partners have constructed.

And yet the only high-weight tie Iran holds is with its proxy network at 0.7. That single number may go further toward explaining the architecture of the entire campaign than any other figure in the matrix.

It is an asymmetric relationship in which Tehran’s capacity to activate and direct exceeds the reverse influence those actors exert over Iranian strategic decisions. What that single structural condition implies goes further toward explaining the architecture of Iranian pressure operations than most analyses of Iranian intentions or capabilities tend to reach. Iran is geographically central and formally excluded. It is precisely that combination, positioned to apply pressure across every theatre while bearing none of the coordination costs that formal inclusion imposes. That, from this vantage point, is what makes legible a strategy that standard analysis, focused on actors and their capabilities, cannot see.

Seen through this lens, what Iran is doing across the region is something more structurally ambitious than a military campaign. It is attempting to restructure the matrix itself. The goal appears to be less about battlefield victory than about the gradual degradation of the ties connecting the United States to its regional partners, below the threshold at which coordinated response becomes automatic, eroding the will to keep paying the price of alignment while simultaneously building alternative adjacency in the nodes where US-aligned connectivity is weakest.

The Houthi campaign against Red Sea shipping is calibrated to stay below the threshold that would compel a unified military response. It introduces friction into the economic relationships connecting European states to the Gulf system, raising the cost of alignment with Washington’s regional posture without forcing the kind of direct confrontation that would unite the coalition. Strikes on Gulf infrastructure follow the same calibration, persistent enough to signal that the US security guarantee cannot insulate its partners from costs, yet restrained enough to avoid crossing the point at which coalition fragmentation becomes irrelevant because a unified response becomes compulsory. Across Iraq and Syria, simultaneous pressure from affiliated militias prevents the concentration of attention that sustained coalition coordination requires. In each case, the instrument targets a relationship rather than a capability, specifically the weight of the ties whose degradation would restructure the system’s geometry without requiring Iran to displace the existing order directly.

The US-Saudi tie at 0.4 is the primary focus of that degradation effort. Should that threshold be breached, Saudi Arabia hedges. As hedging reduces operational interactivity the tie weakens further. The process risks becoming self-reinforcing. Iranian military superiority over any individual partner is not required to sustain it.

The same logic extends across European actors, though not uniformly. Germany’s industrial exposure to energy price volatility, France’s residual strategic autonomy instinct, and the EU’s institutional preference for de-escalation all produce different thresholds for continued alignment with Washington. Their shared energy dependency gives them asymmetric stakes in the Gulf system’s stability, but their appetite for risk diverges from Washington’s in ways that are not identical across capitals, and each time Iran forces a decision about the cost of continued alignment, that divergence fragments the coalition’s coordination surface further.

By sustaining operational ties with non-state actors across the region, Iran is constructing alternative adjacency in precisely the nodes where US-aligned connectivity is weakest. These are populations and factions that the existing regional order has excluded from the dominant coalition’s coordination architecture. Deliberately so — Iran is building in the structural gaps the system leaves open. Displacing the existing order appears unnecessary. Becoming the more reliable pole of alignment for the actors that order has failed to integrate may be sufficient. All that is required is that the order fragment sufficiently at its margins for that offer to appear credible, and the current trajectory of US-Saudi friction and European hedging is steadily moving in that direction.

The coalition’s instruments are calibrated to military threats. The system, however, is failing along a different surface entirely, or so this reading suggests. The formal architecture remains largely intact, security guarantees have not been withdrawn, Gulf states remain formally aligned, and normalisation agreements hold. And yet the operational adjacency that gives that architecture its functional weight is under sustained pressure from an actor that has correctly identified the gap between formal commitment and operational tie as the system’s primary vulnerability. That identification is outpacing the coalition’s capacity to respond.

On this reading, the surface on which the conflict appears to be decided is not the one the coalition is defending.

What adjacency mapping reveals is a story about geometry. The system’s dominant actor holds formal commitments at weights the system cannot sustain under the pressure being applied to it. Its adversary, in turn, has built the only alternative coordination architecture in the space that those weakening ties leave open. The conflict is likely to be determined by which ties the system can no longer afford to lose under sustained and calibrated pressure. The question is whether the actors currently holding those ties in the friction zone can rebuild them to the coordination threshold before the process of degradation becomes irreversible. That is a question that capability assessments are not well-positioned to answer, and one that a structural reading of the system’s connectivity at least helps to make visible.

Leo is the third pontiff to visit the fossil fuel-rich country after John Paul II in 1992 and Benedict XVI in 2009.

Pope Leo XIV is set to arrive in Angola on the third leg of a landmark African tour that has unfolded alongside an escalating war of words with United States President Donald Trump over the Middle East conflict.

Leo, the third pontiff to visit the fossil fuel-rich country after John Paul II in 1992 and Benedict XVI in 2009, is expected to arrive at 3pm local time (14:00 GMT) on Saturday in the capital, Luanda, where billboards bearing his image have been erected to welcome him.

The pope, who visited Cameroon for three days before flying to Luanda, is also slated to meet Angola’s President Joao Lourenco and deliver a speech in the country, where about 44 percent of the population identifies as Catholic.

Leo’s increasingly forceful calls for world peace are likely to resonate in Angola, which emerged in 2002 from a 27-year civil war that erupted after independence from Portugal in 1975.

Throughout his Africa visit, the first pope from the US has issued pointed warnings about corruption, the exploitation of the continent’s vast resources and the dangers of artificial intelligence.

‘Stick to matters of morality’

The pope’s Africa visit has also been marked by a clash with Trump, who has called the 70-year-old head of the Catholic Church “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy”. Trump had also shared what appeared to be an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus, prompting a backlash from leaders across the religious spectrum.

The pope had responded by saying he was not afraid of Trump and that he would continue to speak out against war, marking a rare public clash between a pontiff and a sitting US president.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Trump said he had the right to disagree with the pontiff. “I have no disagreement with the fact the pope can say what he wants, and I want him to say what he wants, but I can disagree,” he said.

After US Vice President JD Vance urged the Vatican to “stick to matters of morality”, Leo said on Thursday that the world was “being ravaged by a handful of tyrants” and intensified criticism of those using religion to justify war.

During his stop in Cameroon, Leo also urged the country’s leaders to tackle corruption and condemned “those who, in the name of profit, continue to seize the African continent to exploit and plunder it”.

Leo’s warnings against corruption and exploitation may resonate in Angola, where one-third of the population lives below the poverty line despite vast fossil fuel reserves.

On Sunday, he will celebrate an open-air Mass in Kilamba, outside Luanda, before travelling by helicopter to Muxima, home to a 16th-century church and major pilgrimage site.

On Monday, Leo is due to travel to Saurimo to visit a retirement home and hold another Mass. He will then fly to Equatorial Guinea, the final stop of his 18,000km (11,185-mile) African tour.

England’s Lionesses are no strangers to making history.

The past decade has been rich in landmark moments; a first tournament medal, a first major trophy, and a first title defence – on foreign soil to boot.

When Sarina Wiegman’s side play Iceland in Reykjavik on Saturday (17:30 BST) they will reach another milestone – the 500th fixture for England’s senior women’s team.

The game is important for securing qualification for next year’s World Cup in Brazil, with England keen to win more silverware in the famous white shirt.

But regardless of the result, the match will be etched in history as a reminder of how far the English women’s game has come.

In 1921, the Football Association (FA) banned women’s football, considering the game “most unsuitable for females”, external.

The decision consigned women’s football to park pitches and small venues for half a century before the decision was overturned in 1971.

To mark 500 not out, BBC Sport takes a look at 11 defining moments in the history of England’s women.

The U.S. Air Force has begun test flights on an extremely lavish 747-8i Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) that Qatar donated to the U.S. last year for use by President Donald Trump. The jet, now dubbed VC-25B Bridge Aircraft, is set to serve in the Air Force One role while the White House awaits the extremely delayed delivery from Boeing of two fully-outfitted VC-25B Air Force One aircraft 

“I can confirm that the VC-25B Bridge Aircraft has begun flight test,” an Air Force spokesperson told The War Zone Friday afternoon. “We expect the aircraft will be delivered to the Presidential Airlift Group no later than summer 2026.”

Aviation Week was the first to report the news of the test flight.

The Air Force declined to provide additional information about the testing program, including when it began or how many flights have taken place. It also remains unclear when the 747-8i will conduct real VIP missions or if it will receive a new official designation. With questions swirling about the legality and ethics of a president receiving a gift plane, the Pentagon last May took delivery of the aircraft and said it would rapidly undertake the required modifications.

The jet, using the call sign VADER01, was spotted by flight trackers over Texas yesterday. It took off from Majors Field in Greenville, Texas, flew over Tulsa, Oklahoma, Amarillo and Abilene, Texas, before landing back at Majors Field. The airport is home to L3 Technologies, which is modifying the jet. The facility at Greenville is a hub for this exact kind of modification work on the Pentagon’s larger aircraft.

Video and photos taken by aviation photographers show that the aircraft was in a white base livery, though it will reportedly get Trump’s red, dark blue and white paint scheme. The aircraft was delivered from Qatar in its maroon, white and gray striped scheme originally.

Aviation photographer TT-33 operator was kind enough to share some images with us. The photos were captured as the aircraft was landing at Majors Field yesterday. You can see more of his work here.

The photos show remarkably few modifications to the VC-25B Bridge Aircraft’s communications system, which already had an extensive broadband satellite communications suite when Qatar handed it over. These additions include a handfuls of new aerials and what appear to be two UHF satcom ‘platter’ antennas.

As TWZ has previously noted, converting any aircraft into one that is secure and safe enough to transport the president is a complex undertaking. The aircraft needs to provide constant, secure communications, including what is needed to order a nuclear strike. Historically, it also needs to be physically hardened both inside and out to withstand myriad threats, from the electromagnetic pulse of a nuclear weapon going off to incoming surface-to-air missiles to enemy intelligence-gathering efforts. To do this requires significant modifications right down to the aircraft’s outer structure.

In this case, it is likely impossible for the jet to receive EMP hardening and, at least based on the limited photos available, we cannot find any clear additions that would indicate the installation of an integrated self defense suite of any kind. The VC-25As are speckled with missile approach warning sensors and many laser countermeasures turrets (DIRCM). They also include the legacy Matador infrared countermeasure system above their jet engines and APU. This is in addition to other defensive features which are less visible and remain closely guarded secrets.

Common Infrared Countermeasures (CIRCM)

At the very least, this aircraft will have to feature some kind of DIRCM setup to repel shoulder-fired heat-seeking missiles, and modular units are available that can be attached in a canoe to the bottom of the aircraft. These systems, such as Elbit’s C-MUSIC or Northrop Grumman’s Guardian, are in service with foreign VVIP 747s, as well as commercial aircraft, including those flying for Israeli airline El Al. You can read all about these systems here. Still, while they offer far less defensive capacity compared to what is seen under the belly of a VC-25A, they would offer a significant layer of protection.

It’s also possible a more elaborate and fully integrated defensive system could be installed in the coming weeks, but it’s hard to imagine this would allow the jet to enter service this summer.

Adding a further layer of complexity to the procurement and fielding process of any new presidential airlift aircraft, there are tight controls around sourcing spares for aircraft with this mission, and specific rules about vetting individual parts to protect against espionage and sabotage. Clearly many practices and requirements had to be relaxed in order to rush this ‘bridge’ aircraft into service.

There are also questions about where this jet could actually fly operationally. Without a fully specialized design meeting all the requirements for the traditional Air Force One mission, it will likely be limited to domestic use or other very low threat areas. Given all that, and its reported conversion price tag approaching $400 million, there are legitimate questions about why it is needed at all.

As we noted earlier in this story, the flight test of this aircraft came as Boeing is far behind in the process of converting two other 747-8is originally built as commercial airliners into new fully customized VC-25B Air Force One aircraft. This led to the emergence of Trump’s idea of procuring an ‘interim’ Air Force One.

On Friday, the Air Force told us that it “is collaborating with Boeing to implement acceleration initiatives and expect the first delivery of the VC-25B in mid-2028.” If this is the case, then this ‘bridge’ aircraft will have served at most around two years until the first full-up VC-25B is delivered.

We have reached out to Boeing for additional details.

While it is not yet known when the ‘bridge’ VC-25B will actually transport the president, we know there is great pressure to get it doing exactly that from the White House. Judging by its configuration so far, whatever possible appears to have been done to make that happen.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Al-Noor is a UNRWA centre in Gaza providing education and support for visually impaired children. Operating since 1962, it faces unprecedented pressure as Israel’s war on Gaza has left more than 1,500 people visually impaired since 2023.

Court filings have indicated that lawyers for President Donald Trump are seeking a resolution with the Department of Justice over a $10bn lawsuit he filed against the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

But the trouble, critics say, is that such a settlement would leave Trump essentially negotiating with an executive branch under his control.

Friday’s court filing, however, emphasises the efficiency of seeking a settlement.

In the document, Trump’s lawyers call for the case to be paused for 90 days to allow a resolution to be hammered out.

“This limited pause will neither prejudice the parties nor delay ultimate resolution,” the filing says. “Rather, the extension will promote judicial economy and allow the Parties to explore avenues that could narrow or resolve the issues efficiently.”

How did the case start?

The case stems from an incident that began in 2017, when a worker named Charles “Chaz” Littlejohn was re-hired as a contractor through the government consulting firm Booz Allen.

While working on IRS files, Littlejohn stole copies of Trump’s tax returns, which had been the source of prolonged public scrutiny.

Until Trump, every president since Richard Nixon had released their tax returns as a gesture of transparency. Trump, however, claimed he could not, citing ongoing audits.

The tax returns Littlejohn stole were ultimately released to the media, and in 2020, The New York Times released a series of articles that showed Trump paid no income taxes in 10 of the 15 preceding years.

Other years, he paid relatively small sums, like $750, because he reported more losses than gains. ProPublica also ran stories based on the leaked tax returns, highlighting inconsistencies and Trump’s low tax payments.

Privacy law protects taxpayer information from being released by the IRS without explicit permission. Littlejohn was sentenced to five years in prison in 2024.

But in late January of this year, Trump filed a lawsuit arguing that he, his businesses and his sons Eric and Donald Jr had suffered “significant and irreparable harm” from the leaks.

The defendants in the lawsuit were the IRS and its overseeing body, the Treasury Department, both of which are part of the executive branch.

“Defendants have caused Plaintiffs reputational and financial harm, public embarrassment, unfairly tarnished their business reputations, portrayed them in a false light, and negatively affected President Trump and the other Plaintiffs’ public standing,” the lawsuit reads.

Questions of ethics and legality

But experts have warned that the lawsuit contains flaws that would normally prompt the Justice Department, also under Trump’s control, to seek dismissal.

The lawsuit, for instance, arrives at its whopping $10bn sum by supposedly tallying up media references to Trump’s leaked tax returns.

However, experts say the formula for damages is calculated by the number of unauthorised disclosures by a government employee, not by media re-printings.

Then there is the question of Littlejohn’s employment status. He was an outside contractor, not a government employee.

Trump also has to contend with the two-year statute of limitations in the case. The lawsuit contends that “President Trump did not discover the numerous violations” of his tax returns until January 29, 2024.

But critics point out he had posted on social media about his tax information being “illegally obtained” as far back as 2020, when The New York Times published its series.

Opponents say the lawsuit should be dismissed or at least delayed until Trump is no longer president. Otherwise, they argue it represents a conflict of interest, with Trump fundamentally negotiating with his own administration for a payout.

Controlling ‘both sides of the litigation’

Trump himself has acknowledged that such a payment would “never look good”. But he has justified the sum by saying it would be donated to charity.

“Nobody would care because it’s going to go to numerous very good charities,” he said in February.

Even that, legal experts argue, could run afoul of the Emoluments Clause in the US Constitution, which prohibits the president from profiting off his position, apart from his salary.

Government watchdogs have attempted to stop a settlement from unfolding. On February 5, for instance, the group Democracy Forward filed an amicus brief arguing the court should act to prevent an abuse of power.

“This case is extraordinary because the President controls both sides of the litigation, which raises the prospect of collusive litigation tactics,” the brief explains.

“To treat this case like business as usual would threaten the integrity of the justice system and the important taxpayer and privacy protections at the heart of this case.”

But the $10bn IRS lawsuit is not the only case Trump is seeking to settle with his own government. In 2023 and 2024, Trump filed administrative complaints seeking compensation for federal investigations he considered to be unfair.

One complaint concerns an FBI investigation into alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election, and the other is about the FBI’s raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate after he refused a subpoena to return classified documents.

For those complaints, Trump is reportedly seeking additional damages to the tune of $230m.

A Lebanese man who returned to his village in southern Lebanon after the temporary ceasefire was announced removes the Israeli flag from Beaufort Castle (Qalaat al-Shaqif). The castle which dates back to the 12th century is in the Nabatiyeh Governorate.

‘This will be a great and brilliant day for the world’ US President Donald Trump said at a Turning Point USA event as Iran fully opens the Strait of Hormuz. He also thanked Gulf states for their ‘tremendous’ support.

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s caption reads:

The Volcano Lair was the underground headquarters of the terrorist syndicate SPECTRE during the Bond film You Only Live Twice from 1967. 

Also, a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
• If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
• No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like. 
• Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.  
• So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on. 
• Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.

Keir Starmer is facing renewed calls for resignation after fresh revelations surrounding the appointment and vetting of former UK ambassador to the United States Peter Mandelson. The controversy has reignited scrutiny over governance standards inside the Labour government, coming at a politically sensitive time just months after Labour’s landslide election victory in 2024.

The Vetting Controversy:
The core of the scandal centres on reports that Mandelson did not properly pass security vetting before being appointed as ambassador. Despite this, official communications suggested that clearance had been confirmed. Downing Street has since dismissed a senior Foreign Office official, intensifying questions about how the appointment was handled and who within government was aware of the vetting status.

Political Fallout Inside Government:
The issue has exposed tensions within the Labour Party, with some lawmakers expressing concern over administrative failures while others defend the Prime Minister. Senior minister Darren Jones said Starmer was “furious” about not being informed of the vetting issues, while acknowledging serious breakdowns in communication between departments.

Opposition Pressure and Leadership Questions:
Opposition figures, including Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, have accused Starmer of misleading Parliament and questioned his credibility. The central allegation is whether the Prime Minister knowingly misrepresented the status of Mandelson’s clearance when defending the appointment. These accusations have intensified calls for resignation from political rivals.

Wider Political Context:
The controversy comes at a politically sensitive moment for Starmer, as Labour prepares for key local elections across England, Scotland, and Wales. The government is also managing broader foreign policy challenges, including Britain’s positioning in global conflicts involving the United States and Middle East tensions, adding further pressure on leadership stability.

Institutional and Governance Concerns:
Beyond individual accountability, the scandal has raised broader concerns about administrative competence within the Foreign Office and Downing Street. The dismissal of senior officials has highlighted breakdowns in communication and vetting procedures, raising questions about how high-level diplomatic appointments are approved and overseen.

Analysis:
The Mandelson vetting scandal has evolved from a procedural controversy into a wider test of political authority and administrative control for Starmer. While there is no clear evidence yet that the Prime Minister deliberately misled Parliament, the perception of mismanagement and lack of oversight has created significant political vulnerability.

At its core, the issue reflects a deeper challenge of governance: maintaining institutional trust while managing complex bureaucratic systems. Even if the government survives immediate calls for resignation, the damage is likely to linger, particularly if further inconsistencies emerge. With elections approaching and internal party tensions rising, Starmer’s ability to project control and competence will be central to whether this episode becomes a temporary setback or a longer-term political liability.