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Residents say the powerful storm brought ‘raging’ flash floods that destroyed homes, overturned cars and blocked streets.

Residents of the central Philippines have slowly begun cleanup efforts after powerful Typhoon Kalmaegi swept through the region, killing at least 85 people and leaving dozens missing.

Scenes of widescale destruction emerged in the hard-hit province of Cebu on Wednesday as the storm receded, revealing ravaged homes, overturned vehicles and streets blocked with piles of debris.

Among the 85 deaths were six military personnel whose helicopter crashed in Agusan del Sur on the island of Mindanao during a humanitarian mission. The country’s disaster agency also reported 75 people missing, and 17 injured.

In Cebu City, Marlon Enriquez, 58, was trying to salvage what was left of his family’s belongings as he scraped off the thick mud coating his house.

“This was the first time that has happened to us,” he told the Reuters news agency. “I’ve been living here for almost 16 years, and it was the first time I’ve experienced flooding [like this].”

Another resident, 53-year-old Reynaldo Vergara, said his small shop in the city of Mandaue, also in Cebu province, had been lost when a nearby river overflowed.

“Around four or five in the morning, the water was so strong that you couldn’t even step outside,” he told the AFP news agency. “Nothing like this has ever happened. The water was raging.”

The storm hit as Cebu province was still recovering from a 6.9-magnitude earthquake last month that killed dozens of people and displaced thousands.

The area around Cebu City was deluged with 183mm (seven inches) of rain in the 24 hours before Kalmaegi’s landfall, well over its 131mm (five-inch) monthly average, according to weather specialist Charmagne Varilla.

The massive rainfall set off flash floods and caused a river and other waterways to swell. More than 200,000 people were evacuated across the wider Visayas region, which includes Cebu Island and parts of southern Luzon and northern Mindanao.

Before noon on Wednesday, Kalmaegi blew away from western Palawan province into the South China Sea with sustained winds of up to 130km per hour (81 miles per hour) and gusts of up to 180km/h (112mph), according to forecasters.

The storm is forecast to gain strength while over the South China Sea before making its way to Vietnam, where preparations are under way in advance of Kalmaegi’s expected landfall on Friday.

China has warned of a “catastrophic wave process” in the South China Sea and activated maritime disaster emergency response in its southernmost province of Hainan, state broadcaster CCTV said.

Last night, in one of the most dramatic elections in recent US history, Zahran Mamdani, a Muslim candidate of Indian African descent, achieved a landslide victory. This triumph came despite facing formidable opposition from the forces of Zionism, capitalism, and racialist religious supremacism, which mobilized significant resources in terms of money, muscle, and power against him.

The victory of Zahran Mamdani, the son of renowned intellectual Mahmood Mamdani and Film maker Mira Nair, as a Democratic candidate in New York mayoral elections is far more than a local electoral victory. It signals a deeper undercurrent—a growing rebellion against the entangled machinery of global capitalism, racialised securitisation, Zionist impunity, and Islamophobic silencing.

In the heart of New York, one of the most securitised and capital-rich spaces on the planet, Mamdani’s emergence stands as a critique of the global order. It is an insurgency within the very citadel of imperial liberalism. His campaign foregrounds anti-austerity politics, solidarity with Palestine, and the dismantling of carceral and corporate logics that have defined American life for decades. It is, in essence, a blow to what The Globalisation of World Politics calls “the disciplining power of capitalism.”

For years, the mere act of criticising Israel—even for its brutal siege of Gaza or its apartheid policies—has been enough to trigger political excommunication. The term “antisemite” has often been deployed not to combat real hate, but to securitize dissent. Any moral critique of Zionist settler colonialism was cast as existential threat and thus silenced. In Mamdani’s case, too, this familiar script was attempted: the labels of “Pro-Hamas,” “Antisemitic,” and “extremist” were hurled. But this time, it didn’t work.

READ: Zohran Mamdani elected New York City’s first Muslim mayor: AP projection

The people of New York—multi-ethnic, young, politically awakened—refused to accept this securitisation. The old rhetorical weapons no longer resonate. Zionism’s carefully curated moral immunity, built upon the tragic weight of the Holocaust, is eroding under the real-time horrors of a genocidal siege in Gaza. The shield of historical victimhood has cracked—not because the Holocaust is forgotten, but because it is being morally manipulated to justify colonial violence.

Even prominent Jewish scholars and intellectuals—such as Noam Chomsky, Norman Finkelstein, and Ilan Pappé—have long warned about this moral dissonance. Yet, governments have remained complicit. Streets across the West have mobilised in support of Palestine, but policies have not shifted. The disconnect between public sentiment and the actions of the power elite is glaring. The political representation of this street sympathy has been manipulated through manufactured consent and a false victimhood narrative propagated by large, conglomerate-controlled media outlets. Mamdani’s nomination suggests that the public may finally be finding a way to express their views through electoral channels, despite the entrenched media-industrial Zionist consensus.

Yet in India, the silence is deafening.

Despite Zahran’s cultural and familial linkages with India, the so-called liberal intelligentsia and the Hindutva right have found rare unity: in ignoring him. Why? Because he identifies unapologetically as a Muslim. Because he challenges Hindutva and Zionism with equal clarity. Because he doesn’t perform his identity for liberal comfort. While India was quick to celebrate Kamala Harris and Rishi Sunak—symbols of minority success within dominant systems—it refuses to acknowledge Mamdani, who represents defiance, not assimilation.

This is not just the prejudice of the right-wing. It reveals a deep Islamophobia embedded within India’s secular elite—those who pride themselves on defending the social fabric but look away when a Muslim victory doesn’t align with sanitized, capitalist liberalism. Mamdani is inconvenient. He is too political, too Muslim, too critical.

But he is also the embodiment of a long tradition. The son of Mahmood Mamdani—whose work deconstructs the legacies of colonial violence, racial statecraft, and the “good Muslim/bad Muslim” dichotomy—Zahran is the intellectual and political heir to global decolonial thought. His mother, Mira Nair, whose films have captured migration, racial tension, and identity, adds a cultural dimension to this lineage of resistance.

In a world that feels increasingly bleak, Mamdani’s nomination offers a rare moment of clarity: that cracks have begun to appear in the mirror of empire. The hegemon can still silence, still dominate—but not without resistance, and not without fracture. For those who dream of justice—not just electoral wins—Zahran Mamdani’s nomination is a reminder that history is not yet finished.

READ: Syria, the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Sharaa’s manoeuvring

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

Russia’s key Black Sea oil port of Tuapse has suspended all fuel exports after Ukrainian drones struck its infrastructure on November 2, igniting a fire and damaging loading facilities. The attack also forced the nearby Rosneft-operated refinery to halt crude processing, according to industry sources and LSEG ship tracking data.

Tuapse is one of Russia’s major export hubs for refined oil products, including naphtha, diesel, and fuel oil. The port plays a crucial role in supplying markets such as China, Malaysia, Singapore, and Turkey. The refinery, capable of processing around 240,000 barrels of oil per day, exports most of its production.

Why It Matters

The suspension underscores Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to weaken Russia’s wartime economy by targeting energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory. These strikes not only disrupt export revenues but also stretch Russia’s military and logistical resources. For Moscow, losing Tuapse an export-oriented refinery on the Black Sea adds pressure to its already strained oil supply chain amid international sanctions and logistical bottlenecks.

The attack also signals Kyiv’s growing drone capabilities, with long-range operations increasingly aimed at strategic Russian energy sites. As the conflict nears its fourth year, energy infrastructure on both sides has become a critical front in the economic war underpinning the battlefield.

The regional administration in Tuapse confirmed the drone strike and subsequent fire but offered few details. State oil company Rosneft and Russia’s port agency did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.

According to data reviewed by LSEG, three tankers were docked during the attack, loading naphtha, diesel, and fuel oil. All vessels were later moved offshore to anchor safely near the port. Before the incident, Tuapse had been expected to increase oil product exports in November.

Ukraine has not directly claimed responsibility for the specific attack but reiterated that its drone strikes aim to erode Russia’s capacity to finance its invasion through energy exports.

What’s Next

Repair timelines for the Tuapse refinery and port infrastructure remain unclear, but the temporary halt is expected to disrupt Russia’s short-term fuel exports and trading flows in the Black Sea region. The strike may prompt Moscow to bolster air defenses along its southern coast and diversify export routes to reduce vulnerability.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is expected to continue leveraging drone warfare to target high-value Russian infrastructure as part of its asymmetric strategy to offset Moscow’s battlefield advantages.

With information from an exclusive Reuters report.

In 2019, a Sudanese team of jiu-jitsu athletes set out on an extraordinary quest: to travel by land from Sudan to Kenya, despite having no funding and limited resources, to compete in the LionHeart Nairobi Open.

Together members of the Muqatel Training Center for martial arts travelled across three countries, carrying not just their hopes and dreams, but the spirit of a revolution that reshaped Sudan.

Journey to Kenya is a documentary short about resilience, unity and determination — a powerful reminder that dreams can transcend borders.

A film by Ibrahim “Snoopy” Ahmed, produced by In Deep Visions.

And so another member of the old “war on terror” team has left the world. Dick Cheney, who served as the most powerful vice president in the history of the United States during the two-term administration of George W Bush (2001-2009), died on Monday at the age of 84.

According to a memorial statement issued by his family, Cheney was “a great and good man who taught his children and grandchildren to love our country, and to live lives of courage, honor, love, kindness, and fly fishing”.

And yet many inhabitants of the Earth will remember the late VP for rather less warm and fuzzy things than love and fly fishing. As the chief architect of the “global war on terror” – which was launched in 2001 and enabled the US to terrorise various locations worldwide under the guise of fighting “terrorists” – Cheney died with untold quantities of blood on his hands, particularly in Iraq.

In the run-up to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Cheney swore that the “Iraqi regime” had been “very busy enhancing its capabilities in the field of chemical and biological agents” and that the country had continued “to pursue the nuclear programme they began so many years ago”. Per the vice president’s hallucinations, this pursuit of weaponry was “for the purpose of inflicting death on a massive scale”.

As Foreign Policy magazine charmingly noted in its 2012 compilation of the “Top 100 Global Thinkers”, which included Cheney as well as numerous other characters with objectively dubious credentials in terms of thinking: “If scaring us silly were a religion, Dick Cheney would be its high priest.”

But Cheney’s fearmongering – and repeated lies concerning Iraq’s alleged weapons of mass destruction – worked like a charm in paving the way for the infliction of “death on a massive scale” in the country. It also paved the way for the lining of certain pockets, such as those associated with the US oil and engineering firm Halliburton, where Cheney himself served as CEO from 1995 until 2000 and which just happened to win $7bn in no-bid contracts in post-invasion Iraq.

Anyway, it was business as usual in the land of conflicts of interest and revolving doors.

Until his dying day, Cheney espoused a no-regrets approach to the illegal perpetration of mass slaughter and attendant suffering, telling CNN 12 years after the effective pulverisation of Iraq: “It was the right thing to do then. I believed it then, and I believe it now.” Never mind the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi deaths, the forcible displacement of millions, and the dousing of the country in toxic and radioactive munitions that will continue to impact Iraqi health basically for eternity.

Escalating cancer rates among the population have been attributed in part to the US military’s use of depleted uranium weapons, the traces of which “represent a formidable long-term environmental hazard as they will remain radioactive for more than 4.5 billion years”, as Al Jazeera has observed.

But, hey, I hear the fly fishing is great in Baghdad.

And the Iraq war is hardly Cheney’s only nonregret. In response to the 2014 CIA torture report on the US use of “enhanced interrogation techniques” such as rectal rehydration and waterboarding to extract information, Cheney stuck by his guns: “I would do it again in a minute.”

Nor is the “war on terror” the sole defining sadistic episode in the legacy of a man who was a fixture on the American political scene for decades. In December 1989, for example, the US military unleashed hell on the impoverished neighbourhood of El Chorrillo in Panama City, Panama, killing potentially several thousand civilians and earning El Chorrillo the nickname “Little Hiroshima”.

The US defence secretary presiding over the operation was none other than Cheney, this time under the leadership of George HW Bush, whose administration was eager to cure the American public of its post-Vietnam War aversion to military combat abroad with an excessive display of high-tech firepower and an easy “victory”. After the bout of devastation, during which many of El Chorrillo’s wooden shacks went up in flames along with their inhabitants, Cheney boasted that the deadly spectacle had “been the most surgical military operation of its size ever conducted”.

The “surgical” stunt in Panama was a test run for Operation Desert Storm against Iraq in 1991, which was also overseen by Cheney in his own sort of test run for the future infliction of mass death in the country.

Now Cheney is no more, joining his former comrades in war crimes Donald Rumsfeld and Colin Powell in the great beyond. In the wake of his demise, US news agencies and media outlets have restricted themselves to memorialising him as a “polarising” and “controversial” figure who, as The Associated Press diplomatically put it, “was proved wrong on point after point in the Iraq War, without losing the conviction he was essentially right”.

As usual, the corporate media can never bring themselves to call a spade a spade – or a war criminal a war criminal. But against the current backdrop of Israel’s US-backed genocide in the Gaza Strip and other global calamities, the loss of another mass murderer can hardly be considered bad news.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.

Kyiv, Ukraine – The collective West is scared of Moscow’s new, nuclear-powered cruise missile because it can reach anywhere on Earth, bypassing the most sophisticated air and missile defence systems, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has claimed.

“They’re afraid of what we’ll show to them next,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told the RIA Novosti news agency on Sunday.

Days earlier, she said Moscow was “forced” to develop and test the cruise missile, which is named the Burevestnik, meaning storm petrel – a type of seabird, in response to NATO’s hostility towards Russia.

“The development can be characterised as forced and takes place to maintain strategic balance,” she was quoted by the Itar-Tass news agency as saying. Russia “has to respond to NATO’s increasingly destabilising actions in the field of missile defence”.

With much pomp, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday handed state awards to Burevestnik’s developers.

Also awarded were the designers of Poseidon, an underwater nuclear-powered torpedo which Putin has also claimed has been successfully tested.

Russia says Poseidon can carry nuclear weapons that cause radioactive tsunamis, wiping out huge coastal areas. The “super torpedo” can move at the speed of 200km/h (120mph) and zigzag its way to avoid interception, it says.

“In terms of flight range, the Burevestnik … has surpassed all known missile systems in the world,” Putin said in his speech at the Kremlin. “Same as any other nuclear power, Russia is developing its nuclear potential, its strategic potential … What we are talking about now is the work announced a long time ago.”

But military and nuclear experts are sceptical about the efficiency and lethality of the new weapons.

It is not unusual for Russia to flaunt its arsenal as its onslaught in Ukraine continues. Analysts say rather than scaring its critics, Moscow’s announcements are merely a scare tactic to dissuade Western powers from supporting Kyiv.

“There’s nothing revolutionary about,” the Burevestnik, said Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project at the the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.

“It can fly long and far, and there’s some novelty about it, but there’s nothing to back [Putin’s claim] that it can absolutely change everything,” Podvig told Al Jazeera. “One can’t say that it is invincible and can triumph over everything.”

The Burevestnik’s test is part of Moscow’s media stratagem of intimidating the West when the real situation on the front lines in Ukraine is desperate, according to a former Russian diplomat.

The missile is “not a technical breakthrough but a product of propaganda and desperation”, Boris Bondarev, who quit his Russian Foreign Ministry job to protest against the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, wrote in an opinion piece published by the Moscow Times.

“It symbolises not strength but weakness – the Kremlin’s lack of any tools of political influence other than threats.”

Few details about ‘unique’ missile

The problem is that officials have so far unveiled very little about the Burevestnik, which NATO has dubbed the SSC-X-9 Skyfall – a missile that has a nuclear reactor allegedly capable of keeping it in the air indefinitely.

On October 26, when fatigues-clad Putin announced Burevestnik’s successful test, he was accompanied by his top general Valery Gerasimov.

“This is a unique item; no one else in the world has it,” said Putin, in televised remarks.

Gerasimov said the Burevestnik had flown 14,000km (8,700 miles) in 15 hours during a recent test. It can manoeuvre and loiter midair, and unleash its nuclear load with “guaranteed precision” and at “any distance”.

“There’s a lot of work ahead” before the missile is mass-produced, Putin concluded, adding the test’s “key objectives have been achieved”.

A Ukrainian military expert ridiculed the Kremlin’s claims.

“Much of the news report is fake, the (Burevestnik) missile is subsonic, it can be detected and destroyed by missile defence systems,” Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces who specialised in air and missile defence, told Al Jazeera.

As for the Poseidon nuclear drone, it is too destructive – and can be used only as a second-strike, retaliatory weapon after the start of a nuclear war, experts warned. As with the Burevestnik, the lack of detailed information about Poseidon casts doubt upon the Kremlin’s claims.

Trump decries ‘inappropriate’ tests

The announcements followed Washington’s scrapping of United States President Donald Trump’s summit with Putin in Budapest, Hungary.

Trump has called the Burevestnik’s test “inappropriate” and ordered the Pentagon to resume the testing of nuclear weapons and missiles.

But ahead of next year’s midterm elections, he may seek to show how he forced the Kremlin to stop hostilities in Ukraine.

“Trump will have to play with pressure on Russia,” Romanenko said. “Hopefully, the circumstances will force Trump to act.”

What Putin has not mentioned is that only two of the Burevestnik’s dozen tests, starting in 2019, have been successful.

Its 2019 launch near the White Sea in northwestern Russia killed at least five nuclear experts after a radioactive explosion, Western experts said at the time. Russia’s state nuclear agency acknowledged the deaths, but officials and media reports do not provide video footage, detailed photos or other specifics of the Burevestnik and its testing route – making Putin’s latest claims hard to corroborate or disprove.

Western experts were able to identify the Burevestnik’s probable deployment site in September. Known as Vologda-20 or Chebsara, it is believed to be 475km (295 miles) north of Moscow and has nine launch pads under construction, the Reuters news agency reported last year.

The missile’s capabilities have divided military analysts.

“In operation, the Burevestnik would carry a nuclear warhead (or warheads), circle the globe at low altitude, avoid missile defences, and dodge terrain; and drop the warhead(s) at a difficult-to-predict location (or locations),” the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a US nonprofit security group said in a 2019 report after the missile’s first somewhat successful test.

A year later, the US Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center said, if brought into service, Burevestnik would give Moscow a “unique weapon with intercontinental-range capability”.

‘Burevestnik is a mystification’

Others doubt the missile’s functionality.

“Burevestnik is a mystification for the whole seven-and-a-half years since it was first announced,” Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s impossible to create a reactor that is compact and powerful enough to ensure a cruise missile’s movement,” Luzin said. “This is a basic physics textbook.”

Moscow claims that Burevestnik utilises nuclear propulsion instead of turbojet or turbofan engines used in cruise or ballistic missiles.

But Luzin said the smallest nuclear reactors used to power satellites weighed 1 metric tonne, supplying several kilowatts of energy – roughly equal to what a regular household consumes – while emitting some 150kw of thermal energy.

The experimental nuclear reactors developed in the 1950s and the 60s for aircraft weighed many tonnes and were the size of a railway carriage, he said.

An average engine for a cruise missile weighs up to 80kg, generates 4kw for onboard electric and electronic devices, and about 1 megawatt of energy for propelling the missile, he said.

Other analysts think that Burevestnik’s nuclear engine can function, but do not consider the weapon groundbreaking.

We now have the first known commercial satellite imagery of the two Chinese sixth-generation stealth fighter designs that emerged nearly a year ago. The aircraft, which are commonly referred to now as the J-36 and the J-XDS, have been spotted in separate images not at their home airfields where they were built, but at a secretive airbase with a massive runway situated near the Lop Nur nuclear test site in northwestern China.

The J-36, readily identifiable by its large modified delta planform and ‘splinter’ camouflage paint scheme, is seen outside the main hangar at the facility’s central apron in an archived satellite image taken on August 27, which The War Zone obtained from Planet Labs. The J-XDS is seen in another Planet Labs image of the airfield taken on September 13. Previously, the J-36 and J-XDS have only been definitively spotted flying in and out of the main airfields associated with their respective manufacturers, Chengdu and Shenyang. Readers can find TWZ‘s very in-depth initial analysis on the J-36 and the J-XDS here.

This particular base near Lop Nur, which has been linked to work on reusable space planes, is also now undergoing a major expansion. It notably already has a runway over 16,400 feet long, or more than 3 miles in total length, making it one of the longest anywhere in the world.

The August 27 satellite image offers new details about the J-36’s size, showing it to have a wingspan of approximately 65 feet and an overall length of some 62 feet. It has already been clear that the three-engined J-36, two distinctly different prototypes of which have now emerged, is a very large tactical aircraft. For comparison, members of the extended Soviet-designed Flanker fighter family, like China’s J-16s, have wingspans of around 48 feet. Flankers are already well known for their large size relative to other fourth-generation fighter designs. As another point of comparison, the variable geometry F-111’s fully extended wingspan was 63 feet.

The September 13 image shows the J-XDS to have a wingspan of around 50 feet and be slightly shorter than the J-36. It’s worth noting that the shadow and image resolution make this estimate more challenging, and readers are advised to take it as such. It has been previously established that the twin-engined J-XDS, also sometimes referred to as the J-50, with its “lambda” wing planform, is smaller and slimmer than the J-36. That being said, it is still firmly in the heavy fighter class.

As mentioned, the remote base near Lop Nur is in the process of being expanded in a major way, overall. The work only started in earnest in the past six months or so, and significant progress has already been made. This includes the enlargement of the main apron, with a single new hangar also having been built at the northeastern end. Three smaller hangars, all joined together and that look to be typical of ones for fighter-sized aircraft, have been constructed at the opposite end, as well.

In addition, a host of other new buildings are seen under construction to the immediate southeast, pointing to plans to expand the scope and scale of work being done at the facility. The series of satellite images below gives a sense of the sheer magnitude of work that has been done just since May of this year.

There had already been a pronounced expansion of the infrastructure at the base in the early 2020s, including the construction of the large main hangar and associated apron. As noted, at that time, the facility seemed largely tied to Chinese military space development efforts. TWZ‘s first report on the airfield came in 2020 after a reusable space plane appeared to have landed there. Last year, we reported on it again after satellite imagery emerged showing a still-mysterious object sitting at one end of the runway.

It seems clear now that the facility has taken on a larger and still growing role in China’s broader advanced aerospace development ecosystem. Comparisons have already been drawn in the past to the U.S. military’s top-secret flight test center at Groom Lake in Nevada, better known as Area 51.

The airfield near Lop Nur is even more remote than China’s existing sprawling test airbase near Malan in Xinjiang province, which also seems to be almost exclusively focused, in terms of aerospace development tasks, on uncrewed aircraft. It also appears to host aircraft detachments for more general training and testing.

The construction of new hangars and other infrastructure at the base in question can only further help with the concealment of assets and other activity there from prying eyes, including in space. That being said, the site is regularly imaged, including by commercial satellites, which clearly did not deter the Chinese from parking the J-36 and J-XDS outside in broad daylight.

Regardless, the appearance of the J-36 and J-XDS at the remote base around the same time is also telling of the facility’s new mission to support the development of advanced air combat technologies. It is further indicative of the state of China’s rapidly evolving sixth-generation fighter programs that they have operated out of this place, possibly alongside each other.

All of this reflects a broader ramping up in China of the development and testing of next-generation tactical air combat platforms, as well as key supporting aircraft. This includes a host of advanced drones intended to perform a variety of missions. Some of these designs are very large, while others are smaller and more in the vein of ‘loyal wingman,’ or what is now often called a Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA). For example, the satellite image below, from Planet Labs’ archive of shots taken of Malan, shows what is likely a fighter-sized CCA-type uncrewed aircraft.

These Chinese military aviation trends extend into the naval domain, as well. This past weekend, images emerged online that offer the first look at a navalized version of the GJ-11 Sharp Sword stealthy flying-wing uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV), intended for operations from aircraft carriers and big deck amphibious assault ships, with its arrestor hook deployed. This drone is sometimes also referred to as the GJ-21.

Even with major construction still underway, the secretive and remote base near Lop Nur is already becoming busier, and has now given us the first commercial satellite imagery showing the J-36 and J-XDS. The facility expansion is likely to see it support future advanced tactical aircraft developments, playing a bigger part in these endeavors going forward.

Contact the author: [email protected]

‘Cycle of terror’ spikes as Higher Planning Council set to advance plans to build 1,985 new settlement units in occupied West Bank.

Israeli forces and settlers have carried out 2,350 attacks across the occupied West Bank last month in an “ongoing cycle of terror”, according to the Palestinian Authority’s Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission (CRRC).

CRRC head Mu’ayyad Sha’ban said on Wednesday that Israeli forces carried out 1,584 attacks – including direct physical attacks, the demolition of homes and the uprooting of olive trees – with most of the violence focused on the governorates of Ramallah (542), Nablus (412) and Hebron (401).

The research, compiled in a CRRC monthly report titled Occupation Violations and Colonial Expansion Measures, also noted 766 attacks by settlers. The commission said they are expanding settlements, which are illegal under international law, as part of what it called an “organised strategy that aims to displace the land’s indigenous people and enforce a fully racist colonial regime”.

The report said settler attacks reached a new peak with most targeting the Ramallah governorate (195), Nablus (179) and Hebron (126). Olive pickers received the brunt of attacks, according to the report, which said they were the victims of “state terror” that had been “orchestrated in the dark backrooms of the occupation government”.

It described instances of Israeli “vandalism and theft” carried out in cahoots with Israeli soldiers that have seen the “uprooting, destruction and poisoning” of 1,200 olive trees in Hebron, Ramallah, Tubas, Qalqilya, Nablus and Bethlehem. During the violence, settlers have tried to establish seven new outposts on Palestinian land since October in the governorates of Hebron and Nablus.

For decades, the Israeli military has uprooted olive trees, an important Palestinian cultural symbol, across the West Bank as part of efforts by successive Israeli governments to seize Palestinian land and forcibly displace residents.

The spike in Israeli violence comes amid expectations that Israel’s Higher Planning Council (HPC), part of the Israeli army’s Civil Administration overseeing the occupied West Bank, will meet to discuss the construction of 1,985 new settlement units in the West Bank on Wednesday.

The left-wing Israeli movement Peace Now said 1,288 of the units would be rolled out in two isolated settlements in the northern West Bank, namely Avnei Hefetz and Einav Plan.

It said the HPC had been holding weekly meetings since November last year to advance housing projects in the settlements, thus normalising and accelerating construction on land taken from Palestinians.

Since the beginning of 2025, the HPC has pushed forward a record 28,195 housing units, Peace Now said.

In August, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich drew international condemnation after saying plans to build thousands of homes as part of the proposed E1 settlement scheme in the West Bank “buries the idea of a Palestinian state”.

The E1 project, shelved for years amid opposition from the United States and European allies, would connect occupied East Jerusalem with the existing illegal Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim.

The Israeli far right’s push to annex the West Bank would essentially end the possibility of implementing a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as outlined in numerous United Nations resolutions.

United States President Donald Trump’s administration has been adamant that it won’t allow Israel to annex the occupied territory.  US Vice President JD Vance, while visiting Israel recently, said Trump would oppose Israeli annexation of the West Bank and it would not happen. Vance said as he left Israel, “If it was a political stunt, it is a very stupid one, and I personally take some insult to it.”

But the US has done nothing to rein in Israel’s assaults and crackdowns on Palestinians in the West Bank as it trumpets its Gaza ceasefire efforts.

Cecile Kohler, 41, and her partner, Jacques Paris, 72, had been jailed on charges of spying for France and Israel.

Iran has released two French nationals imprisoned for more than three years on spying charges their families rejected, French President Emmanuel Macron has said, though it remains uncertain when they would be allowed to return home.

Expressing “immense relief”, Macron said on X on Wednesday that Cecile Kohler, 41, and her partner Jacques Paris, 72 – the last French citizens officially known to be held in Iran – had been released from Evin prison in northern Tehran and were on their way to the French embassy.

He welcomed this “first step” and said talks were under way to ensure their return to France as “quickly as possible”.

The pair were arrested in May 2022 while visiting Iran. France had denounced their detention as “unjustified and unfounded”, while their families say the trip had been purely touristic in nature.

Both teachers, although Paris is retired, were among a number of Europeans caught up in what activists and some Western governments, including France, describe as a deliberate strategy of “hostage-taking” by Iran to extract concessions from the West.

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said they had been granted “conditional release” on bail by the judge in charge of the case and “will be placed under surveillance until the next stage of the judicial proceedings”.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot told France 2 TV they were in “good health” at the French ambassador’s residence but declined to give details on when they would be allowed to leave Iran.

Their Paris-based legal team told the AFP news agency in a statement that the release had “ended their arbitrary detention which lasted 1,277 days”.

The release comes at a time of acute sensitivity in dealings between Tehran and the West in the wake of the US-Israel 12-day war in June against Iran and the reimposition of United Nations sanctions in the standoff over the Iranian nuclear programme, which the country insists is purely for civilian purposes.

Some Iranians are concerned that Israel will use the sanctions, which are already causing further economic duress in the country, as an excuse to attack again, as it used the resolution issued by the global nuclear watchdog in June as a pretext for a war that was cheered by Israeli officials and the public alike.

The French pair’s sentences on charges of spying for France and Israel, issued last month after a closed-door trial, amounted to 17 years in prison for Paris and 20 years for Kohler.

Concern grew over their health after they were moved from Evin following an Israeli attack on the prison during the June war.

Kohler was shown in October 2022 on Iranian television in what activists described as a “forced confession”, a practice relatively common for detainees in Iran, which rights groups say is equivalent to torture.

Her parents, Pascal and Mireille, told AFP in a statement that they felt “immense relief” that the pair were now in a “little corner of France”, even if “all we know for now is that they are out of prison”.

France had filed a case with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) over their detention, saying they were held under a policy that “targets French nationals travelling in or visiting Iran”.

But in September, the ICJ suddenly dropped the case at France’s request, prompting speculation that closed-door talks were under way between the two countries for their release.

Iran has said the duo could be freed as part of a swap deal with France, which would also see the release of Iranian Mahdieh Esfandiari.

Esfandiari was arrested in France in February on charges of promoting “terrorism” on social media, according to French authorities.

Scheduled to go on trial in Paris from January 13, she was released on bail last month in a move welcomed by Tehran.

Barrot declined to comment when asked by France 2 if there had been a deal with Tehran.

Among the Europeans still jailed by Iran is Swedish-Iranian academic Ahmadreza Djalali, who was sentenced to death in 2017 on espionage charges his family vehemently rejects.

Bayern Munich remain top of the league standings after staging a road win over reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain.

Bayern Munich have made it 16 wins from 16 games this season to underline their credentials as early UEFA Champions League favourites, beating holders Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 away as Luis Diaz scored two goals and was shown a red card.

The Colombian winger struck twice on Tuesday before being sent off for a violent tackle on Achraf Hakimi on the stroke of half-time.

PSG, who reduced the arrears through Joao Neves, dominated possession after the break but failed to make it fully count and slipped to their first defeat in the competition since last season’s quarterfinal second leg against Aston Villa.

The result kept Bayern top of the 36-team league on a maximum 12 points with PSG in third, three points adrift and with more injury concerns after Hakimi and Ousmane Dembele were replaced early.

“Most importantly I hope that it’s not too bad for Hakimi. We went through this in the US [at the Club World Cup against PSG] with [Jamal] Musiala,” Bayern coach Vincent Kompany said at a news conference.

“What I tell players is that when there’s some hype, don’t believe it. We’ve won 16, but from tomorrow onwards, it’s back to zero. Nobody has won the Champions League today.”

His PSG counterpart, Luis Enrique, echoed that point of view, saying: “Today’s standings mean nothing. What matters is February, March, April, May.”

“It’s always hard to lose at home. We need to assert ourselves and play better. We faced a well-organised team, especially physically. We couldn’t get our game going,” PSG captain Marquinhos said.

“There are still some positives to take from this match. The team remain ambitious, but we have to do better. They were superior to us. In the second half, we were on top, but it was after the red card.”

Ten-man Bayern hold on for dramatic victory

Dembele made his first Champions League start of the season, but his night was short-lived, the France forward being replaced by Lee Kang-in after 25 minutes.

PSG, who had beaten Bayern 2-0 in the Club World Cup quarterfinals in July, came out flying with their trademark high pressing but were caught cold in the fourth minute when Diaz smashed home after Lucas Chevalier had parried Michael Olise’s effort.

Dembele thought he had levelled midway through the half, only for his goal to be ruled out for offside as PSG pressed but looked unusually fragile at the back.

Moments later, Manuel Neuer pulled off a spectacular save to deny Bradley Barcola, who had raced to a pinpoint long ball from Fabian Ruiz.

Bayern stayed a step ahead, and after Serge Gnabry struck the post, Diaz pounced on a sleepy Marquinhos to steal the ball and slot home a second in the 32nd minute.

Diaz’s evening ended abruptly just before half-time when he was shown a straight red card for a brutal lunge on Hakimi, who limped off in tears with a suspected ankle injury.

Long possession spells ensued for PSG in the second half, but the hosts lacked a cutting edge until the 74th minute when substitute Neves reduced the arrears with a spectacular scissor kick from Lee’s cross.

Neves came close to levelling a few minutes later with a header as PSG further increased the pressure. Despite the hosts’ late flurry, Bayern held firm.

Over the last two decades, the Horn of Africa has witnessed an increase of foreigntroops in Djibouti, a rise in investments along the Red Sea, and more pronounced engagement in its internal affairs by confirmed and emerging powers all of which showcase the geopolitical appetite for influence in the region. Yet current crises – the war in Sudan, persisting insecurity in Somalia, renewed tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and contentious relations between countries – underscore an uncertain future that could make the volatile region even more prone to external influence. Will local leadership step up to the task of preserving stability through improved regional relations or leave its most pressing issues unresolved?

An analysis by Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Mwachofi Singo, and Hallelujah Wondimu published earlier this year by the Center for Strategic and International Studies provides key insights on the risk posed by the absence of a clear pillar state(s) to push for peace and security within the region which could worsen its vulnerability to competing middle powers.

The three experts on African geopolitics argue that given its history of conflicts and ongoing tensions, the region demands the rise of Ethiopia and Kenya as stronger leaders able to drive reform initiatives aimed at protecting the interests of the Horn of Africa. As such, the two nations offer strong, suitable and strategic advantages for the region despite facing their own internal and regional challenges which they must also attend to.

The CSIS report view Ethiopia’s role as central to transforming the region towards a stable and self-sufficient neighborhood capable of addressing its own tensions, preserving peace and promoting economic development. Whether Ethiopia intends to assume this role, however, rests on the success of its current transition that began since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took power in 2018 following decades of Tigray dominance over the country. Yet the envisioned reinforcement of the federal structure led by a strong central government has had setbacks in the last few years with the occurrence of the violent war in Tigray and ongoing security concerns over autonomy seeking movements.

This suggests that Ethiopia will inevitably have significant nation building to do to preserve the unity of the country hence the recent inward focus to stabilize domestic tensions. The achievement of the Renaissance Dam stands as good symbol of national harmony that could be replicated across other sectors of society to reinforce inclusion and equity. This image of improved and steady stability in Ethiopia is crucial to consolidate its leadership position in the region.

According to the researchers, Ethiopia’s (re)emergence as a leader in the Horn is also closely linked to its capacity to improve its relations with neighbors which have deteriorated the last few years. They cite the territorial dispute with Sudan, the sudden outreach to Somaliland irritating Somalia and Djibouti or one could add renewed animosity with Eritrea. Ironically, these frictions could lead to Ethiopia’s further rapprochement with external emerging actors eager to increase their influence in the region that will further complicate regional cooperation imperative for stability. This signals a pressing need for the country to reset its relations with its neighbors as the current trajectory could end up being an obstacle towards its economic development. Again, the Grand Renaissance Dam which is already a major component of Ethiopia’s trade policy in the region could be the catalyst needed to reinvigorate diplomatic ties.

While Ethiopia remains focused on its introspection and on pursuing a more bilateral approach to regional diplomacy, Kenya could seize the opportunity to accentuate its leadership position and diplomatic consistency. Kenya’s relatively peaceful independence transition and constant display of neutrality when engaging mediation processes forged its image as a credible leader for the region. The report also highlights a long history of proactive foreign policy by successive Kenyan presidents which emphasized economic development through regional trade integration. However, Kenya’s recent actions with regards to the Sudan conflict and the war in the DRC might alter its reputation and ability to conduct peace initiatives in the region while similar moves may instead translate an incoherent foreign strategy.

Nevertheless, it would be hard to imagine Kenya further jeopardize its stabilizing role as the country’s own development ambitions largely rests on its capacity to promote regional stability crucial to economic trade with its neighbors. This underscores the need for Nairobi to remain committed to its traditional diplomatic playbook to support impartial interventions while preserving its leverage and reputation throughout such processes.

In addition, Kenyan legacy could be further undermined by internal challenges in light of the gen z movement which may be a decisive political factor ahead of the 2027 elections. Latest developments in Morrocco or Madagascar could give a glimpse of the consequences of such social efforts in Kenya. Whether or not Kenyan youth are able to shake the government, political leaders should implement policies responding to the youth socioeconomic concerns as prolong unrests could diminish its global influence capacity so dear to the current administration.

In a rapidly shifting world order where middle powers are keen on exerting their own vision in the Horn of Africa, it becomes imperative for local leadership to assert regional autonomy to solve issues. Stability and improved inter-state relations should then discourage governments from seeking external support when pursuing domestic interests.

Kenya and Ethiopia both retain significant assets to affirm their influence in the Horn despite their own challenges. However, their capacity to assume an independent leading position might be more uncertain. The almost complete monopolization of the conflict resolution processes in Sudan or the DRC by the United States and the Gulf States clearly reveals the consequences of weak regional leadership. Kenya and Ethiopia could instead harmonize their regional policies through platforms such as the East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. Ultimately, Kenya and Ethiopia’s ability to intensify their strategic partnerships could lay the foundation for regional autonomy and stability.  

Belgium’s Brussels and Liege airports were forced to shut down twice due to mysterious drone sightings on Tuesday.

Belgium’s air traffic was severely disrupted after drone sightings forced two major airports to temporarily suspend operations as a security precaution.

A drone was first spotted near Brussels airport at 8pm (19:00 GMT) on Tuesday evening, followed by another incident at the nearby Liege airport, one of Europe’s largest cargo airports, according to Belgium’s public broadcaster RTBF.

Both airports suspended operations for an hour and reopened at 9pm (20:00 GMT), only to shut down again at 10pm (21:00 GMT) after a second sighting, RTBF said. Both airports resumed normal operations at 11pm (22:00 GMT).

Brussels airport said that the shutdowns may still impact air traffic on Wednesday in a notice on its website.

“Following drone sightings on Tuesday evening, flight operations at Brussels Airport were suspended for safety reasons,” the notice said. “This disruption has led to delays and some flight cancellations and might still impact flight operations on Wednesday morning.”

Flight Aware, a US-based flight tracking website, counted 59 cancelled and 43 delayed flights at Brussels airport on Tuesday. Some flights were also diverted to nearby airports, according to RTBF.

Authorities have not released limited information about the drone sightings, but Minister of the Interior Bernard Quintin said that an investigation was under way, according to RTBF.

“We cannot accept that our airports are disrupted by unauthorised drone flights. This requires a coordinated, national response,” he said.

The drone sightings in Brussels and Liege follow a similar incident on Saturday, when three unauthorised drones were spotted near a Belgian military base, according to Minister of Defence Theo Francken.

Francken said on X that he believed the incident was “not a simple flyover, but a clear command targeting [the] Kleine Brogel” airbase in northwest Belgium.

He said the drones were flying at a high altitude and could not be stopped with a drone jammer. They also evaded pursuit by a helicopter and police vehicle, he said.

Since September, Europe has been hit with a wave of mysterious drone sightings near civilian airports and military facilities in Denmark, Germany, and Norway.

Denmark’s intelligence service has linked the drone flights to Russia, and described them as a form of hybrid warfare intended to “put pressure on [Europe] without crossing the line into armed conflict in a traditional sense”, according to Reuters.

Here are the key events from day 1,350 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is how things stand on Wednesday, November 5:

Fighting

• Russian and Ukrainian troops have fought battles in the ruins of Pokrovsk, a transport and logistics hub in eastern Ukraine, with Ukraine’s military reporting fierce fighting under way in a part of the city that was key for Kyiv’s front-line logistics.

  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he visited troops fighting near the eastern city of Dobropillia, where Ukrainian forces are conducting a counteroffensive against Russian troops.

  Russia struck civilian energy and port infrastructure in a massive overnight drone attack on Ukraine’s southern region of Odesa, the region’s governor said in a post on the Telegram messaging app, adding that rescuers extinguished fires and there were no casualties.

• Ukraine has struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region east of Moscow, the General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said in a statement. The extent of damage to the Lukoil refinery in the town of Kstovo, which supplies the Russian military, was not immediately known.

• Ukraine’s military also said that its drones had caused “considerable damage” to a petrochemical plant in Bashkortostan in central Russia. Regional authorities reported an attack on the Sterlitamak petrochemical plant, but added that the facility was still operating.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law that allows the use of military reservists to guard oil refineries after Ukrainian drone strikes have led to fuel shortages in some regions of the country.

Weapons

• Putin lauded his country’s development of new weapons, including the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon super torpedo, describing them as faster and more effective, with the Burevestnik said to be capable of reaching more than three times the speed of sound.
• Putin also said that Russia was proceeding with the mass production of its Oreshnik missile, which Moscow said was first used to attack Ukraine in November 2024.

• Zelenskyy again urged the United States to remain open to supplying Kyiv with long-range weapons for its war effort against Russia’s invasion, while also calling for more sanctions on Moscow’s gas and nuclear sectors.

• Norwegian munitions maker Nammo has signed a letter of intent with a Ukrainian industrial partner to produce, develop and sell ammunition in Ukraine, Norway’s government said.

Sanctions

• Kazakhstan’s state-owned oil and gas company Kazmunaygaz and the sanctioned Russian oil and gas firm Lukoil are continuing work on joint projects in accordance with contractual obligations, despite Western sanctions, Russia’s Interfax agency reported.

• Japan’s investment firm Marubeni plans to follow the guidance of the Japanese government regarding its involvement in Russia’s Sakhalin-1 oil project after the US government sanctioned the project’s key shareholder, Rosneft, Marubeni’s CEO, Masayuki Omoto, told a briefing in Tokyo.

• Turkish fuel supplier Guzel Enerji has announced that it will raise the price of diesel after Western sanctions on Russian oil companies led to issues with supply and increased insurance and financing costs, according to a document seen by Reuters news agency.

Politics and diplomacy

• Zelenskyy called on Hungarian leader Viktor Orban to stop blocking Kyiv’s bid to join the European Union.
• The European Commission said that the EU could welcome new member countries as early as 2030, as it praised Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova for their progress on reforms needed to join the bloc.
• The EU may need to come up with a bridging solution to keep Ukraine financed in early 2026 if a deal on an EU loan, based on frozen Russian assets held in EU accounts, continues to be delayed, European Commissioner for Economy and Productivity Valdis Dombrovskis said.

• Germany plans to increase its financial aid to Ukraine by about 3 billion euros ($3.5bn) next year, a spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of Finance said. Germany has already contributed about 40 billion euros ($46bn) since the full-scale Russian invasion began in 2022.

• Maxim Oreshkin, a deputy chief of staff in Russia’s presidential administration, will lead Moscow’s delegation to the G20 summit in South Africa later this month, according to a decree signed by Putin. The Kremlin earlier said that Putin, who is facing an International Criminal Court warrant for arrest, would not travel to the summit in Johannesburg on November 22-23.

• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is constantly working as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia over Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, including in Zaporizhzhia, IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said.

The body of a hostage returned by Hamas via the Red Cross in Gaza has been identified as Israeli-American soldier Itay Chen, Israel has confirmed.

The 19-year-old soldier’s remains were returned on Tuesday as part of a Gaza ceasefire deal brokered by US President Donald Trump last month.

“Following the completion of the identification process… IDF representatives informed the family of the fallen hostage, Staff Sergeant Itay Chen, that their loved one has been returned to Israel and positively identified,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said.

Earlier, Hamas’s military wing said it had recovered the body of an Israeli soldier in the eastern Shejaiya neighbourhood of Gaza City.

Israel had allowed members of the group and Red Cross staff to search for the remains in the area, which is inside territory still controlled by Israeli forces.

Chen was working at his base on the Gaza border when Hamas and its allies launched their attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.

His family lost communication with him after he told them his base was under attack.

Chen was initially believed to have been taken hostage by jihadists was actually killed in the 7 October attacks, the Israeli military said in March 2024. It said he had died in combat and his body had been taken to Gaza.

The Israeli government has accused Hamas of deliberately delaying the recovery of the dead hostages since a US-brokered ceasefire deal took effect on 10 October.

Hamas has insisted it is difficult to locate the bodies under rubble.

Under the ceasefire deal, Hamas agreed to return the 20 living and 28 dead hostages it was still holding within 72 hours.

All the living Israeli hostages were released on 13 October in exchange for 250 Palestinian prisoners and 1,718 detainees from Gaza.

Israel has handed over the bodies of 270 Palestinians in exchange for the bodies of the 19 Israeli hostages returned by Hamas, along with those of two foreign hostages – one of them Thai and the other Nepalese.

Five of the seven dead hostages still in Gaza are Israelis, one is Tanzanian, and one is Thai.

All but one of the dead hostages still in Gaza were among the 251 people abducted during the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, during which about 1,200 other people were killed.

Israel responded by launching a military campaign in Gaza, during which more than 68,800 people have been killed, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry.

Earlier on Tuesday, a hospital official in Gaza City said a man was killed by Israeli fire in the Jabalia area of northern Gaza.

The Israeli military said its troops killed a “terrorist” who had crossed the “Yellow Line”, which demarcates Israeli-controlled territory, and posed a threat to them.

A high-ranking Russian lawmaker claims his government recently sent Venezuela air defense systems and could provide ballistic and cruise missiles in the future. The comments, to an official Russian media outlet, are a response to the ongoing buildup of U.S. forces in the region aimed at narco-traffickers and Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Meanwhile, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is now in the Atlantic, heading for the Caribbean, which you can read more about later in this story. You can catch up with our latest coverage of the Caribbean situation in our story here.

“Russian Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E systems were just recently delivered to Caracas by Il-76 transport aircraft,” Alexei Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, told Gazeta.Ru earlier this week.

“Russia is actually one of Venezuela’s key military-technical partners; we supply the country with virtually the entire range of weapons, from small arms to aircraft,” Zhuravlev added. “Russian Su-30MK2 fighters are the backbone of the Venezuelan Air Force, making it one of the most powerful air powers in the region. The delivery of several S-300VM (Antey-2500) battalions has significantly strengthened the country’s ability to protect important installations from air attacks.”

The delivery of Pantsir-S1 systems would appear to be a new development; however, without visual proof, we cannot independently verify Zhuravlev’s claim. An Ilyushin Il-76 airlifter, owned by the Russian Aviacon Zitotrans air transport company, did arrive in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas on Oct. 26 after a circuitous route from Naberezhnye Chelny in Russia, according to FlightRadar24. It is not publicly known what, if any, cargo was delivered. Defense News was the first to report the flight. It’s unclear is other flights have occurred, as well.

Russia has previously provided Venezuela with Buks and S-300VMs. It has also received 21 Su-30MK2 Flanker fighters that are capable of air defense missions, but they can also sling supersonic anti-ship missiles, as well as flying other types of missions.

Just how Maduro’s air defenses could affect any U.S. military strike on Venezuela is something we examined in our deep dive on the topic.

“Venezuela has an unusually varied collection of air defense assets, including smaller numbers of more capable systems. However, even most of the older surface-to-air missile systems have been upgraded and, as stated earlier, are generally highly mobile, meaning they can appear virtually anywhere, disrupting carefully laid mission plans. They could still pose a threat that would have to be taken seriously during any kind of offensive U.S. air operation directed against Venezuela.”

In addition to military aid already given to Venezuela, Zhuravlev suggested that Moscow, which recently ratified a mutual aid agreement with Caracas, could also provide long-range strike weapons.

“Information about the volumes and exact types of what is being imported from Russia is classified, so the Americans could be in for some surprises,” the Russian parliamentarian proferred. “I also see no obstacles to supplying a friendly country with new developments like the Oreshnik or, say, the proven Kalibr missiles; at least, no international obligations restrict Russia from doing so.”

The Oreshnik, a large, intermediate-range ballistic missile system, has been used against Ukraine by Russia. In August, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that production had started on the Oreshniks and reaffirmed his plans to deploy them to ally Belarus later this year. The Kalibr cruise missile, which can be launched from surface combatants and submarines, has been frequently used by Russia in its full-on war against Ukraine. 

With a reported maximum range of about 3,400 miles and a minimum effective range of about 400 miles, the Oreshnik could theoretically threaten much of the continental United States as well as Puerto Rico, which is being used as a staging base for the Caribbean operations. The Kalibr is thought to have a range of between 930 and 1,550 miles, which could possibly threaten the southern continental U.S., as well as facilities throughout the Caribbean.

Whether Russia can actually deliver any meaningful supply of these weapons remains unclear. The country is facing a shortage of air defenses after waves of attacks by Ukraine. Meanwhile, though Russia is still making them, it is unknown how many Kalibrs it still has after nearly four years of hitting Ukrainian targets. International sanctions have stymied advanced standoff weapon production in Russia. The rate at which new Kalibrs are being delivered isn’t known. Regardless, these standoff weapons are far more precious than they once were. The Oreshnik is an experimental weapon in very limited supply. That could change if Russia can produce them in meaningful quantities, but they are also larger and more complex to deploy. They would also be far more threatening to the United States than cruise missiles if they were perched in Venezuela, but that seems more like a questionable possibility in the future, not today.

While the exact extent of Moscow’s supply of new arms to Venezuela is also unknown, Putin has threatened in the past that Russia could provide standoff weapons to America’s enemies. As debate swirled last year about whether Ukraine’s allies would deliver long-range weapons to Kyiv, Putin said Russia could supply similar “regions” around the world where they could be used for strikes against Western targets. Venezuela came up as a possibility for where these weapons could go at the time.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Caribbean buildup could give Putin a pretext to carry out his threat, and in America’s backyard. Trump has also been mulling giving Tomahawk Land Attack cruise missiles (TLAMs) to Ukraine, which would also fit into a potential narrative from Moscow to justify standoff weapons transfers. Clearly, some would draw direct parallels to the Cuban Missile Crisis just on the thought of such a notion. While there are clear similarities to that historic series of events, there are major differences too. It’s also possible Russia could give lower-end, but still long-range ‘deterrence’ weapons to Venezuela in the form of Shahed-136 one-way attack drones, which it has an increasingly large supply of.

We reached out to the White House and Pentagon for further context about the Russian lawmaker’s claims and will update this story with any pertinent details shared. The Pentagon referred us to the White House, which did not directly answer our questions.

Meanwhile, the Ford and one of its escorts, Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Bainbridge, have passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and are now in the North Atlantic, a Navy official confirmed to The War Zone Tuesday morning. As we have previously reported, the Ford has been dispatched by Trump to take part in the ongoing operations in the Caribbean.

The rest of the carrier strike group’s Arleigh Burke class ships, however, are not with the Ford, according to the Navy. 

The USS Winston S. Churchill is the closest to the carrier, currently in the North Atlantic above Morocco, the Navy official told us. The USS Forrest Sherman and USS Mitscher are in the Red Sea while the USS Mahan is in Rota, Spain.

In addition, the San Antonio class amphibious transport dock ship USS Fort Lauderdale is now north of Cuba, the Navy official added. A U.S. official told us the ship is headed south to the Caribbean to rejoin the rest of the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group (ARG)/22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) operating as part of the enhanced counter-narcotics operation. There are now eight surface warships, a nuclear-powered fast attack submarine, and the MV Ocean Trader – a roll-on/roll-off cargo ship modified to carry special operators and their gear – assembled in the region. There is also an array of aviation assets, among them F-35B stealth fighters, AC-130 gunships, airlifters and MQ-9 Reaper drones, deployed for this operation.

Amid all this signaling by the U.S. and Russia, the Trump administration has “developed a range of options for military action in Venezuela, including direct attacks on military units that protect Maduro and moves to seize control of the country’s oil fields,” The New York Times reported on Tuesday, citing multiple U.S. officials.

Trump “has yet to make a decision about how or even whether to proceed,” the newspaper noted. “Officials said he was reluctant to approve operations that may place American troops at risk or could turn into an embarrassing failure. But many of his senior advisers are pressing for one of the most aggressive options: ousting Mr. Maduro from power.”

The president’s aides “have asked the Justice Department for additional guidance that could provide a legal basis for any military action beyond the current campaign of striking boats that the administration says are trafficking narcotics, without providing evidence,” the publication added. “Such guidance could include a legal rationale for targeting Mr. Maduro without creating the need for congressional authorization for the use of military force, much less a declaration of war.”

Trump is also directing staff to brief more members of Congress on the aggressive anti-narcotics tactics in the Caribbean and Pacific, Axios reported on Tuesday.

“The unprecedented military maneuvers off Venezuela and the continual extra-judicial killings of unarmed suspects —at least 64 of whom have died in 15 boat sinkings— have sparked bipartisan calls for more intel on the White House’s decision making,” the news outlet posited.

While the U.S. is blowing up alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, it is also seizing them in the Pacific.

“MORE WINNING,” Trump posted on Truth Social Monday. “U.S. military captures another drug speedboat and seizes over 5,000 lbs of drugs and apprehends nearly 60 narco terrorists as part of its Operation Pacific Viper.”

In addition to operations against Venezuela’s drug trafficking organizations, NBC News on Monday reported that the U.S. was planning kinetic actions against cartels in Mexico. On Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pushed back on that possibility.

“It’s not going to happen,” Sheinbaum said during her daily morning news conference on Tuesday. “We do not agree with any process of interference or interventionism.”

It remains unknown at the moment if or when Trump will order an attack on Venezuela. He has previously suggested strikes on ports and other facilities associated with narcotraffickers. However, he has also delivered mixed messages, saying he doubts there will be an attack but that Maduro must go.

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