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WARNING: This report contains references to suicide.

Liverpool’s Paddy Pimblett suffered heartbreak against Justin Gaethje in his quest to claim a UFC interim title as he lost on points to the American in Las Vegas.

Pimblett, 31, was as brave as he was bloodied through five action-packed rounds that had both men swinging at the final bell.

Gaethje rolled back the years for a vintage performance, forcing Pimblett to raise his game to a new level and fight fire with fire.

Both men raised their arms at the end, but the judges rightly gave 37-year-old Gaethje the victory on all three scorecards.

“Paddy is right; Scousers do not get knocked out,” Gaethje said.

“My coach was definitely upset at me after the first round, but I just love this so much, it’s really hard to control myself sometimes.

“I knew I had to put him on his back foot, he is very dangerous and has great timing. I had to steal his momentum and confidence.”

With victory, Gaethje claimed the interim lightweight title for the second time and will now face absent champion Ilia Topuria once he returns from a personal hiatus.

Pimblett applauded Gaethje as the scorecards were read out, taking the fourth loss of his career with grace.

The Briton was the favourite going into the contest and showed incredible resilience and heart, but could not control the storm of Gaethje overall.

“I wanted to be walking away with that belt. I know how tough I am and I don’t need to prove that to anyone,” Pimblett said.

“I think 48-47 was a fair scorecard. I won’t lie, he hit me with a body shot in the first round and it got me. I thought I was winning the round up to that point.

“You live and you learn; I’m 31, I will be back better.”

Pimblett also used his post-fight interview to shine a light on mental health issues as he has done before in his career.

“In a few of my post-fight interviews before, I’ve mentioned men killing themselves; two lads who I know have killed themselves over the last few months,” Pimblett said.

“Men, speak up, don’t bottle your feelings up.”

Polls have opened in Myanmar for the third and final round of a controversial general election, with a military-backed party on course for a landslide win amid a raging civil war.

Voting began in 60 townships, including in the cities of Yangon and Mandalay, at 6am local time on Sunday (23:30 GMT, Saturday).

Critics say the polls are neither free nor fair, and are designed to legitimise military rule in Myanmar, nearly five years after the country’s generals ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, leading to a civil war that has killed thousands and displaced more than 3.5 million people.

Aung San Suu Kyi remains in detention and, like several other opposition groups, her National League for Democracy (NLD) has been dissolved, tilting the political playing field in favour of the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which is leading in the polls.

So far, the USDP has secured 193 out of 209 seats in the lower house, and 52 out of 78 seats in the upper house, according to the election commission.

That means that along with the military, which is allocated 166 seats, the two already hold just under 400 seats, comfortably surpassing the 294 needed to come to power.

Seventeen other parties have won a small number of seats in the legislature, ranging from one to 10, according to the election commission.

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who heads the current military government, is widely expected by both supporters and opponents to assume the presidency when the new parliament meets.

The military has announced that the parliament will be convened in March, and the new government will take up its duties in April.

While the military has pledged that the election will return power to the people, rights monitors said the run-up was beset with coercion and the crushing of dissent, warning that the vote will only tighten the military’s grip on power.

A new Election Protection Law imposed harsh penalties for most public criticism of the polls, with the authorities charging more than 400 people recently for activities such as leafleting or online activity.

Ahead of the third round of voting, Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, also called for the rejection of its outcome, calling it “fraudulent”.

“Only an illegitimate government can emerge from an illegitimate election,” he wrote on X on Saturday.

“As Myanmar’s election ends, the world must reject it as fraudulent while rejecting what follows as simply military rule in civilian clothing.”

Malaysian Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohamad Hasan told Parliament on Tuesday that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, did not send observers and would not certify the election, citing concerns over the lack of inclusive and free participation.

His comments were the first clear statement that the 11-member regional bloc will not recognise the election results.

In Myanmar’s second city of Mandalay, Zaw Ko Ko Myint, a 53-year-old teacher, cast his vote at a high school around dawn.

“Although I do not expect much, we want to see a better country,” he told the AFP news agency. “I feel relieved after voting, as if I fulfilled my duty.”

The previous two phases of the election have been marked by low voter turnout of about 55 percent, well ⁠below the turnout of about 70 percent recorded in Myanmar’s 2020 and 2015 general elections.

Official results are expected late this week, but the USDP could claim victory as soon as Monday.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD thrashed the USDP in the last elections in 2020, before the military seized power on February 1, 2021.

According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, which monitors human rights abuses in the country, at least 7,705 people have been killed since the outbreak of the civil war, while 22,745 remain detained.

But the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a monitoring group that tallies media reports of violence, estimates more than 90,000 have been killed on all sides of the conflict.

Al-Maliki remains a potent force despite longstanding claims he fuelled sectarianism and failed to stop ISIL expansion.

Iraqi former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is on the verge of a return to power after being nominated as the country’s next premier by an alliance of Shia political blocs that hold a majority in parliament.

The Shia Coordination Framework said on Saturday that it had picked al-Maliki, leader of the Islamic Dawa Party, as its nominee for the post based on his “political and administrative experience and his role in managing the state”.

A central figure in Iraq’s politics, the 75-year-old first became prime minister in 2006, as the country appeared to be unravelling amid a wave of violence unleashed by the United States-led invasion of 2003.

He stepped down after ISIL (ISIS) seized large parts of the country in 2014, but has remained an influential political player, leading the State of Law coalition and maintaining close ties with Iran-backed factions.

The move paves the way for negotiations aimed at forming a new government, which will need to manage powerful armed groups close to Iran, such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq, while facing growing pressure from Washington to dismantle them.

Potent force

Al-Maliki was Iraq’s only two-term premier since the US-led invasion, and had, over the years, managed to appease both Tehran and Washington, becoming a powerbroker whose approval is considered indispensable to any governing coalition.

He remains a potent force in Iraqi politics despite longstanding accusations that he fuelled sectarian strife and failed to stop ISIL from seizing large areas of the country a decade ago.

The politician spent nearly a quarter of a century in exile after campaigning against the governance of former President Saddam Hussein, but returned to Iraq in the wake of the 2003 invasion that toppled the longtime leader.

He became a member of the de-Baathification commission that barred members of Saddam’s Baath party from public office.

The US-authored programme was widely blamed for fuelling the rise of post-invasion rebel groups by purging thousands of experienced civil servants who were disproportionately Sunni.

A 37-year-old Minneapolis man, who is believed to be a US citizen, has been killed by a federal agent.

Greg Bovino, Border Patrol commander said that officers tried to disarm an individual who “violently resisted”.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz said he spoke to the White House after “another horrific shooting by federal agents”.

More on this story.

These are the key developments from day 1,431 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Sunday, January 25:

Fighting

• Russian forces launched another major attack on Ukraine overnight on Saturday, killing at least one person and wounding four in the capital, Kyiv, and leaving 1.2 million properties without power nationwide, according to officials.
• Kyiv’s military administration reported strikes in at least four districts in the capital and said a medical facility was among the buildings damaged. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said Russia targeted the capital and four regions in the country’s north and east.
• Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the worst-affected in the capital was the northeastern suburb of Troyeshchyna, where 600 buildings were without power, water and heat.
• Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia unleashed 375 drones and 21 missiles, including two of its rarely deployed Tsirkon ballistic missiles.
• At least 30 people, including a child, were also wounded during the same attack in the country’s second-largest city of Kharkiv. Mayor Ihor Terekhov said 25 drones had hit several districts in the city. Among those struck was a dormitory for displaced people and two medical facilities, including a maternity hospital, Terekhov wrote on Telegram.
• Ukrainian Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal wrote on Telegram late on Saturday that more than 800,000 Kyiv households were still without power, as were a further 400,000 in the Chernihiv region, north of the capital.

• Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said more than 3,200 buildings in Kyiv remained without heating in the late evening, down from 6,000 in the morning. Night-time temperatures were hovering around -10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit).

• Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha denounced the attack as “barbaric” in a statement posted on X. He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of acting “cynically” for launching the attack amid United States-led trilateral talks on the war in the United Arab Emirates.
• In Russia, Ukrainian forces launched a “massive” attack on the border region of Belgorod on Saturday, damaging energy infrastructure, but causing no casualties. Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov described the incident as “the most massive shelling of the town of Belgorod”.
• Gladkov said the attack damaged “energy sites” and that fragments of a downed drone triggered a fire in a courtyard of a building. Reports from the area also said the shelling and sounds of explosions had gone on for some time.

• The Russian Ministry of Defence said its forces had completed the takeover of the village of Starytsya in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region, close to the border with Russia.

• The General Staff of Ukraine’s military said Russian forces had launched six attacks on an area including Starytsya. But it made no acknowledgement that the village had been captured by Russian forces.

Diplomacy

• Ukraine and Russia ended their second day of US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi without a peace deal, with more talks expected next weekend, amid the massive Russian strikes across Ukraine.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X following the meeting that “the central focus” of the discussions was “the possible parameters for ending the war”, but he did not say if the negotiators were close to a deal.
• More discussions are expected next Sunday in Abu Dhabi, according to a US official who spoke to reporters immediately after the talks. The official, who requested anonymity, said negotiators “saw a lot of respect” during the discussions, “because they were really looking to find solutions”.
• The US official also voiced hopes for further talks, possibly in Moscow or Kyiv, beyond next week’s discussions in Abu Dhabi, adding that the next step would be a possible bilateral discussion between Putin and Zelenskyy, or a trilateral meeting that includes US President Donald Trump.
• An unnamed UAE government spokesperson told the Reuters news agency that there was face-to-face engagement between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi – rare in the almost four-year-old war triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion – and said negotiators tackled “outstanding elements” of Trump’s peace framework.

• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also hinted at the prospects of additional talks with Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul after negotiations in Abu Dhabi, adding that Moscow remains open to a continuation of dialogue, the Russian state RIA news agency reported.

Real Madrid win 2-0 at third-placed Villarreal to climb past rivals Barcelona to the summit of the La Liga table.

Kylian Mbappe netted twice to claim a 2-0 win for Real Madrid at Villarreal and take his side to the top of La Liga.

Alvaro Arbeloa’s team moved two points clear of rivals Barcelona, who host Real Oviedo on Sunday.

La Liga’s top scorer Mbappe reached 21 goals for the season in the competition to help Madrid see off a spirited Villarreal side on Saturday, now fourth in the table.

Arbeloa’s side have won three consecutive matches across all competitions, and victory at Villarreal could be a vital step in the revival of their season.

After the shock Copa del Rey defeat at second-tier Albacete, in Arbeloa’s first match at the helm, his Madrid have started to take shape.

The coach has made clear how important his star players are, and none has been more crucial this season than Mbappe.

It was a lively but imprecise start at Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica, as the game glowed but neither side was able to seriously threaten.

Georges Mikautadze lashed a volley narrowly wide after veteran forward Gerard Moreno found him with a floating cross.

At the other end, Madrid midfielder Arda Guler fired straight at Villarreal stopper Luiz Junior after some tidy footwork, and then shot high over the bar at the end of a swift break.

Villarreal’s Juan Foyth limped off hurt in a blow for the hosts, who created a good chance for Pape Gueye just before the break.

The Senegal midfielder, a champion at the Africa Cup of Nations last weekend, powered narrowly wide of the post.

Vinicius, who excelled in Madrid’s Champions League 6-1 rout of Monaco in midweek, also came close, with a rasping effort across Luiz Junior’s goal and wide.

The 25-year-old Brazil forward went a 13th straight La Liga match without scoring, but he was involved as Mbappe opened the scoring two minutes into the second half.

Vinicius came into the box from the left flank, and his low cross was blocked, but Mbappe was on hand to squeeze home his 20th league goal of the campaign from close range.

Villarreal had the better of the second half as they worked hard to pull level, but Moreno spurned their best chance by firing inches over when well-placed.

In stoppage time, Mbappe was clumsily felled by Alfonso Pedraza in the box, and the French forward cheekily dinked home the resulting penalty to seal Madrid’s victory.

Allan LittleSenior correspondent

BBC

AFP via Getty Images

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Reuters

A new world order or back to the future?

Carl Court – Pool/Getty Images

Re-interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine

Universal Images Group via Getty Images

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Cohesion among the allies

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The challenge facing ‘middle powers’ today

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Trump’s praise comes after UK prime minister called the US leader’s remarks ‘insulting’ and suggested he apologise.

United States President Donald Trump has praised UK soldiers a day after receiving a rare rebuke from United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer over comments he made about European troops staying “a little off the front lines” in the war in Afghanistan.

In an apparent bid to ease tensions with Starmer, Trump took to social media on Saturday to acknowledge that 457 UK soldiers had died in Afghanistan, with many others badly wounded, describing them as being “among the greatest of all warriors”.

“The GREAT and very BRAVE soldiers of the United Kingdom will always be with the United States of America!” he wrote. “It’s a bond too strong to ever be broken.”

Starmer said on Friday that Trump’s comments to US broadcaster Fox News on the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, were “insulting and, frankly, appalling”.

Asked whether he would demand an apology from Trump, Starmer said, “If I had misspoken in that way or said those words, I would certainly apologise.”

While Trump’s response stopped short of an apology, his olive branch came after he spoke to the UK leader earlier on Saturday, according to a statement from Starmer’s office.

“The prime minister raised the brave and heroic British and American soldiers who fought side by side in Afghanistan, many of whom never returned home,” the statement said. “We must never forget their sacrifice, he said.”

King Charles’s younger son, Prince Harry, who served two tours in Afghanistan, also weighed in on Friday, saying the “sacrifices” of UK soldiers during the war “deserve to be spoken about truthfully and with respect”.

The UK was not the only NATO ally to express anger at Trump’s remarks. Other European leaders, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron, reacted sharply on Saturday.

Alongside the US and UK forces were troops from dozens of countries, including from NATO, whose collective security clause, Article 5, had been triggered for the first time after the attacks on New York and Washington in September 2001.

More than 150 Canadians were killed in Afghanistan, along with 90 French service personnel and dozens from Germany, Italy, Denmark and other countries.

The US reportedly lost more than 2,400 soldiers.

At least 46,319 Afghan civilians died as a direct result of the 2001 invasion, according to a 2021 estimate by Brown University’s Costs of War project.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has deployed a military radar in the Somali region of Puntland as part of a secret deal, amid Abu Dhabi’s ongoing entrenchment of its influence over the region’s security affairs.

According to the London-based news outlet Middle East Eye, sources familiar with the matter told it that the UAE had installed a military radar near Bosaso airport in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region earlier this year, with one unnamed source saying that the “radar’s purpose is to detect and provide early warning against drone or missile threats, particularly those potentially launched by the Houthis, targeting Bosaso from outside”.

The radar’s presence was reportedly confirmed by satellite imagery from early March, which found that an Israeli-made ELM-2084 3D Active Electronically Scanned Array Multi-Mission Radar had indeed been installed near Bosaso airport.

READ: UAE: The scramble for the Horn of Africa

Not only does the radar have the purpose of defending Puntland and its airport from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, but air traffic data reportedly indicates it also serves to facilitate the transport of weapons, ammunition, and supplies to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), further fuelling the ongoing civil war in Sudan.

“The UAE installed the radar shortly after the RSF lost control of most of Khartoum in early March”, one source said. Another source was cited as claiming that the radar was deployed at the airport late last year and that Abu Dhabi has used it on a daily basis to supply the RSF, particularly through large cargo planes that frequently carry weapons and ammunition, and which sometimes amount to up to five major shipments at a time.

According to two other Somali sources cited by the report, Puntland’s president Said Abdullahi Deni did not seek approval from Somalia’s federal government nor even the Puntland parliament for the installation of the radar, with one of those sources stressing that it was “a secret deal, and even the highest levels of Puntland’s government, including the cabinet, are unaware of it”.

READ: UAE under scrutiny over alleged arms shipments to Sudan

The British Army’s next main battle tank, the Challenger 3, has successfully fired its main gun for the first time. The new tank is planned to enter service in 2027 and is further evidence of the pivot back toward armored warfare — in Europe, especially — in response to the growing threat from Russia, after many years of stagnation.

Indeed, it has been so long since the British Army last had any kind of new main battle tank in development that the previous time that such firing trials took place was more than 30 years ago.

The milestone was announced by the Defense Equipment and Support (DE&S) branch, which handles procurement for the U.K. Ministry of Defense. The trials took place at an unnamed firing range in the United Kingdom, with the tank fully crewed.

Responsible for the campaign was Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL), a joint venture between Germany’s Rheinmetall and Britain’s BAE Systems, which is developing the new tank. The gun itself is a product of Rheinmetall Waffe Munitions. This is a 120mm smoothbore L55A1 cannon that can fire both kinetic-energy anti-armor rounds and programmable multipurpose ammunition.

Ahead of the crewed trials with the Challenger 3 and RBSL personnel, the company, together with the British Army and DE&S, had undertaken remote firing of the L55A1 gun.

“Firing the vehicle first remotely and then with a crew in the turret reflects the enormous amount of work that has gone into ensuring the design is safe, robust, and ready,” explained Rebecca Richards, the managing director of RBSL.

“Seeing Challenger 3 fire successfully with a crew in the turret demonstrates just how far the program has progressed and marks a proud moment for U.K. armored vehicle development,” Richards added.

Rheinmetall – Challenger 3 contract signed

The new gun replaces the L30A1 rifled gun, of the same caliber, found in the current Challenger 2. This new weapon provides a notably greater muzzle velocity since the projectile leaves the barrel faster, it ensures an improved degree of penetration and, in some cases, extends the range.

As we have described in the past:

The gun fires single-piece ammunition, rather than the two-piece rounds that are used in the Challenger 2. A wide range of NATO-standard smoothbore ammunition is therefore available, including the DM63 and DM73, Rheinmetall’s armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot (APFSDS) rounds. These types of ammunition feature a long dart penetrator, which uses kinetic energy to penetrate enemy armor.

Potentially, the Challenger 3 could also fire the U.S.-made M829A4 round, another APFSDS type, but one that features a depleted uranium (DU) penetrator, denser than many penetrators made of more conventional metals, for improved armor-piercing performance. Currently, the British Army uses a DU round in the Challenger 2, the L27A1 CHARM 3.

While NATO-standard ammunition will bring logistics and cost advantages, the space requirements of the single-piece ammunition mean that the total number of rounds carried is 31, compared to 49 in the Challenger 2. The ammunition is stored in an isolated bustle compartment, at the rear of the turret, to improve survivability if the tank takes a hit.

As well as the new main gun, the Challenger 3 introduces a new optical/targeting package of the same kind that’s used in the British Army’s troubled Ajax tracked infantry fighting vehicles. This comprises the Thales Orion and Day/Night Gunner and Panoramic Sight (DNGS T3). These are part of what the manufacturer describes as a digitized turret, with an open-architecture concept, so that hardware and software upgrades will be easier to install than in the past.

In terms of protection, the Challenger 3 is equipped with a new modular armor (nMA). Using a modular system means that specific parts of the armor can be quickly removed and replaced. It also means the United Kingdom doesn’t need to buy full sets of armor for all its Challenger 3s, equipping individual tanks with nMA when they need to deploy. The nMA package includes appliqué armor for the sides of the hull and the belly.

Further protection can be provided with an active protection system (APS), although, like the nMA package, this won’t always be installed on the tanks. The United Kingdom chose the Israeli-made Trophy APS for the Challenger 3, a system that employs a radar to detect incoming projectiles before firing intercepting projectiles at them; you can read more about the system here. It is hard to envisage the Challenger 3 ever being deployed for combat without the Trophy, which would provide defense against anti-tank guided missiles and rocket-propelled grenades. It could also potentially be used in the future to counter lower-end drones.

TROPHY is the world’s ONLY operational APS (Previous Version – Updated Video Available)

Finally, the Challenger 3’s mobility is addressed through the Heavy Armor Automotive Improvement Project (HAAIP), which includes retrofitting an improved engine (although with no increase in power output), a new suspension, a hydraulic track tensioner, an electric cold start system, and an improved cooling system.

The Challenger 3 is being manufactured by RBSL in Telford, England, as part of a contract worth over £800 million (around $1 billion). In early 2024, it was announced that the first prototype of the tank had been completed at Telford, as TWZ reported at the time.

More trials will now follow, including further crewed firing activity and reliability testing, planned for later this year.

DE&S describes the Challenger 3 as the “centerpiece of the British Army’s armored modernization program” and says that it will “deliver a step change in lethality, survivability, and digital integration.”

Other elements of this modernization program have not been proceeding entirely smoothly, however.

Earlier this year, we reported on how the British Army had suspended the use of its new Ajax fighting vehicles after dozens of soldiers became ill after riding in them. The U.K. Ministry of Defense confirmed that “around 30 personnel presented noise and vibration symptoms” following an exercise involving the tracked vehicles.

Aside from technical issues with the Ajax, there are broader concerns about how the vehicle will be operated in relation to the Challenger 3.

In 2021, a damning report into Ajax from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British defense and security think tank, stated the following:

“If grouped within the Heavy Brigade Combat Teams alongside Challenger 3, Ajax cannot deliver infantry to the objective and cannot perform the divisional reconnaissance function. Alternatively, if made part of the Deep Recce Strike Brigade Combat Team, Ajax will struggle to be sustained operating independently. Ajax’s inability to peer-to-peer recover also makes it a poor independent unit, while its weight, complexity, and size make it hard to deploy with lighter forces, despite the British Army seeking to operate further afield with greater frequency.”

The Brigade Combat Team is the core around which the British Army will be organized, based upon wide-ranging structural changes that call for a “lethal, agile, and lean” force of around 72,500 personnel by 2025, down from 76,000 in 2021.

Deployable Brigade Combat Teams will also include Boxer wheeled armored personnel carriers and AH-64E Apache attack helicopters, among others.

Regardless of how the British Army fields the Ajax — provided that controversial program survives — it is also worth noting that only a relatively small number of Challenger 3s are currently envisaged. This raises questions about the British Army’s ambitions to use the tanks as a “digitized backbone” that will connect combat across the Brigade Combat Team, allowing data to be shared with different platforms in real time.

The United Kingdom currently plans to convert just 148 of its older Challenger 2s into the new version, including eight prototypes. In the past, RBSL has said that it’s technically possible to build new Challenger 3s if required.

The Challenger 2 entered British Army service in 1994 and has since been involved in combat operations in the former Yugoslavia and Iraq, without loss to enemy action, according to the British Army. However, at least two examples that have been provided to Ukraine by the United Kingdom have been knocked out on the battlefield.

A video showing the first evidence of a Ukrainian Challenger 2 destroyed in Ukraine:

While significant armor losses in the war in Ukraine and the emergence of new threats, such as low-cost first-person-view (FPV) drones, have raised questions about the future of the tank on the modern battlefield, it’s notable that most NATO nations have been driven to reinforce their fleets. Some countries have even returned to tanks after giving them up.

However, there have been specific concerns about the serviceability and operational readiness of the Challenger 2 fleet, which could well port over into the Challenger 3.

The Challenger 2 has long had issues regarding excessive weight. The Challenger 2 weighs 82.7 tons with add-on armor modules, compared to 73.6 tons for the U.S. Army’s M1A2 SEPv3. The Challenger 3 will be heavier than its predecessor, but its engine won’t be more powerful.

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there was speculation that the British Army might lose its tanks altogether. With that in mind, even a relatively small number of Challenger 3s ensures that the United Kingdom remains in the tank game out to at least 2040, according to current plans.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

The House and Senate Appropriations Committees have negotiated a draft defense spending bill that includes nearly $900 million for the U.S. Navy’s F/A-XX next-generation carrier-based combat jet program. The proposed legislation and an accompanying report also aim to finally force the selection of a winner in the stalled F/A-XX competition. All of this comes after Congress did not reverse the Pentagon’s previously announced plan to effectively freeze the F/A-XX effort in the most recent annual defense policy bill, despite framing the program as fully funded therein.

The Senate Appropriations Committee released the text of the draft Defense Appropriations Act for the 2026 Fiscal Year, which is currently consolidated with spending bills for a swath of other government agencies, earlier today. The committee also released a Joint Explanatory Statement report with additional information and Congressional guidance. The House Appropriations Committee had put out more truncated information about the proposed legislation yesterday, which only included a brief note about “enhancing investments” in F/A-XX.

Last month, the House Armed Services Committee announced that “full funding for the Air Force’s F-47 and Navy’s F/A-XX 6th Generation Aircraft programs” was included in the separate defense policy bill, or National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for Fiscal Year 2026. However, it subsequently turned out that the legislation, which was signed into law on December 18, only authorized the “full” $74 million the Pentagon had previously requested.

The Pentagon had revealed its intention to shelve F/A-XX, formally known as the Next Generation Fighter program, indefinitely when it rolled out its proposed Fiscal Year 2026 budget last June. At that time, U.S. military officials said concerns about competition for resources with the U.S. Air Force’s F-47 sixth-generation fighter program had been the primary factor in that decision. Boeing is the prime contractor for the F-47, and has been competing head-to-head with Northrop Grumman for F/A-XX following the reported elimination of Lockheed Martin.

F/A-XX is intended as a very stealthy replacement for the F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and E/A-18 Growlers currently in Navy service that will offer increased range and an array of other advancements. On top of its expected kinetic capabilities, Navy officials have talked in the past about the sixth-generation jet’s improved ability to perform intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions and to contribute to battle space management. Serving as a flying ‘quarterback’ from uncrewed aircraft, including future carrier-based Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), is also expected to be a key role for F/A-XX. You can read more about what the Navy has shared about its requirements for its Next Generation Fighter here.

“The agreement provides $897,260,000 above the fiscal year 2026 President’s budget request to continue F/A-XX development and directs the Secretary of Defense to obligate these and any prior funds for the purposes of awarding the EMD contract limited to one performer in accordance with the acquisition strategy to achieve an accelerated Initial Operational Capability (IOC),” per the Joint Explanatory Statement report released today. “The agreement supports the Navy’s efforts to develop the F/A-XX sixth generation fighter and understands the program’s unique capability in delivering air superiority to the fleet, including greater operational range, speed, stealth, and enhanced survivability.”

It is worth noting that the Senate Appropriations Committee had previously moved to add $1.4 billion to the Fiscal Year 2026 defense budget for F/A-XX. That figure aligned directly with a call for additional funding for the program that the Navy had reportedly included in its annual Unfunded Priority List (UPL) sent to Congress last year.

“The agreement notes the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025 provided $453,828,000 to align to the program’s acquisition schedule which assumed a March 2025 award for engineering and manufacturing development (EMD),” the statement adds. “However, rather than proceeding with a Milestone B award, the Department expended nearly all fiscal year 2025 funding on contract extensions with minimal demonstrated value to the program.”

“Further, the Secretary of the Navy is directed, not later than 45 days after the enactment of this Act, to submit a report to the congressional defense committees that details: (1) the current acquisition strategy and updated schedule for awarding the EMD contract; (2) a revised development and fielding, imeline for the F/A-XX program to meet IOC; (3) any programmatic, budgetary, or policy barriers that have delayed execution of prior-year funds; and (4) a spend plan for the active year additional funds that have been appropriated to the Department of Defense for this program,” it continues.

In addition, the text of the draft legislation includes an explicit provision that compels the Secretary of Defense to obligate funding “for the purpose of executing the engineering and manufacturing development contract for the Next Generation Fighter aircraft in a manner that achieves accelerated Initial Operational Capability.” It blocks the use of any funding appropriated for F/A-XX to “pause, cancel, or terminate” the program, as well.

House and Senate appropriators had already expressed their displeasure over the Pentagon’s decision regarding F/A-XX last year.

“The [House Appropriations] Committee is deeply concerned by the Navy’s declining investment in strike fighter aircraft, particularly at a time when carrier air wings are sustaining high operational tempo across global theaters,” lawmakers wrote in another report last June. “This shortfall comes as the People’s Republic of China is rapidly out-producing the United States in advanced fighters and threatens to surpass U.S. air superiority in the Indo-Pacific, as the Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command recently testified. China’s continued advancements in carrier aviation underscores the urgent need to modernize and enhance the Navy’s carrier air wing.”

It is worth remembering that the U.S. Air Force considered cancelling the program that led to the F-47. The service ultimately decided not to after assessing that the next-generation fighter would be essential for ensuring U.S. air superiority in future conflicts, especially high-end fights like one against China in the Pacific.

Despite the Pentagon’s desire to put F/A-XX on hold, the Navy has continued to argue very publicly in favor of moving ahead with the program as planned, too.

“It’s my job to inform the secretary of war’s team about that imperative,” Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle, the Navy’s top uniformed officer, told members of the press at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in December, according to Breaking Defense. “I’m part of those discussions, but my job is to pressurize that decision because the warfighting imperative, I think, is there, and I’m trying to build a compelling case to get that decision made quickly.”

“Does it need to be done at [sic] a cost-effective way? Does it need [to] be done [in a way] that doesn’t clobber our other efforts? Does it need to be done so it actually delivers in the relevant time frame? Yes,” Caudle had also said at the forum, according to Aviation Week. “So hopefully some of this acquisition reform and production improvement can help us get those decisions.”

“I do think there’s a commitment for us to deliver this capability,” Michael Duffey, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, said separately at the Reagan National Defense Forum, per Aviation Week. “There’s an interest to make sure that we can, from our standpoint, [ensure] that the industrial base is able to support it, and I think we’ll be working through that question as quickly as we can.”

Executives from both Boeing and Northrop Grumman have publicly said they are ready to move ahead with F/A-XX if chosen. Boeing has more explicitly pushed back on the idea that the U.S. industrial base cannot simultaneously support work on F/A-XX and the F-47.

Navy Vice Adm. Daniel Cheever, commander of Naval Air Forces, and more commonly referred to as the service’s “Air Boss,” also told TWZ he was still “eagerly awaiting” F/A-XX back in August.

In the meantime, the Trump administration has made major calls recently regarding major Navy programs, some of them controversial, while FA-XX, seen by some as essential to winning a fight in the Pacific and making the best use of America’s very costly carrier force, has remained in purgatory. These have included cancelling the Constellation class frigate in favor of a design with a similar armament package to the service’s current Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and embarking on what could be a gargantuan investment in building huge new ‘battleships.’ These decisions will have their own impacts on the Navy’s budget priorities going forward that could impact other efforts.

The House and Senate do still have to pass the consolidated spending bills, and there is always the possibility of last-minute changes. Afterward, President Donald Trump would then have to sign the final version of the legislation into law, as well.

Still, and despite not having done so with the NDAA in December, Congress now looks very much poised to save F/A-XX from being gutted and to compel officials to finally pick a winning design to be the Navy’s next-generation carrier-based fighter.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The ‘legacy’ F-15C/D may now be a dwindling presence in the U.S. Air Force, but the jets still support vital test work with NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research Center. NASA has long flown different F-15 variants for numerous kinds of missions and recently added to its fleet with another pair of jets cascaded down from the Air Force. Meanwhile, older F-15s are also continuing to take on new test assignments with NASA, having already contributed enormously to its military and civilian research programs, including flying alongside legacy F/A-18 Hornets.

Earlier this month, NASA confirmed that it had received two twin-seat F-15Ds, serial numbers 81-0063 and 84-0045, previously operated by the Oregon Air National Guard’s 173rd Fighter Wing at Kingsley Field. This is the Air Force’s F-15C/D ‘schoolhouse,’ which, as we have reported in the past, will replace its Eagles with F-35As, overturning a previous plan that would have seen the 173rd Fighter Wing assume responsibility for training pilots for the new F-15EX Eagle II.

NASA’s windfall provides new equipment for its flight research fleet at Edwards Air Force Base, California. However, only one of the F-15Ds will go into active NASA service, with the other serving as a source of spare parts for the maintenance-heavy Eagles.

One of the missions that the F-15D will be involved in is tests of NASA’s remarkable-looking X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technology experimental test aircraft, or QueSST, which made its first flight in October last year and will be flown out of Edwards. Much is resting on the test program that has now been kicked off, with the future of supersonic passenger flight arguably dependent on its successful outcome.

The QueSST project is one that TWZ has covered in detail over the years and which is planned to demonstrate how careful design considerations can reduce the noise of a traditional sonic boom to a “quieter sonic thump.” If that can then be ported over to future commercial designs, it could solve the longstanding problem of regulations that prohibit supersonic flight over land.

“These two [F-15Ds] will enable successful data collection and chase plane capabilities for the X-59 through the life of the Low Boom Flight Demonstrator project,” explained Troy Asher, director for flight operations at NASA Armstrong. “They will also enable us to resume operations with various external partners, including the Department of War and commercial aviation companies.”

X-59 Team Reflects on Completing First Flight

“NASA has been flying F-15s since some of the earliest models came out in the early 1970s,” Asher added. “Dozens of scientific experiments have been flown over the decades on NASA’s F-15s and have made a significant contribution to aeronautics and high-speed flight research.”

As part of its diverse test fleet, NASA’s F-15s provide an ideal platform for test and chase duties that demand high-speed, high-altitude capabilities. At the same time, the Eagle’s impressive load-carrying ability means that various experimental payloads can be mounted on it externally, either under the wings or on the fuselage centerline, benefiting from the jet’s generous ground clearance.

The legacy F-15’s 1970s-era technology is also fairly straightforward to modify, meaning that new or adapted software, systems, and flight controls can be integrated to meet particular test requirements.

NASA has also ‘tweaked’ its F-15s to better optimize them for high-performance test work.

Back in 2022, NASA announced that it had made modifications to two of its earlier F-15s to support X-59 chase flights.

The two-seaters received new emergency oxygen bottles and regulators, for the pilot and back-seat technician, to reduce the risk of hypoxia — a lack of oxygen reaching the brain and other tissues of the body, which can happen as the aircraft climbs.

The new positive-pressure breathing system was developed for the F-22 and provides additional pressure compared with the F-15’s original life support system. It means the F-15 can operate safely at up to 60,000 feet.

The X-59 is designed to hit this altitude and cruise at 55,000 feet.

In fact, the revised life support system also shares many components with the X-59. Flight crews wear the same gear, the same panel-mounted regulator, and the same device that reduces the pressure flow from the liquid oxygen tanks to the regulator. The same modification is being made to NASA’s newly acquired F-15D.

This will all help NASA’s QueSST test program, which aims to push the X-59 to a speed of Mach 1.4, equivalent to around 925 miles per hour, over land. Ahead of this, multiple sorties will be flown over the supersonic test range at Edwards, accompanied by F-15s.

In the meantime, NASA researchers continue to utilize earlier Eagles — including NASA tail number 836, a 1974-vintage F-15B, a variant of the jet long since discarded by the Air Force. This particular jet was obtained by NASA in 1993 from the Hawaii Air National Guard. 

Earlier this week, NASA announced it had completed a high-speed taxi test of its F-15B after modification for the Crossflow Attenuated Natural Laminar Flow (CATNLF) test.

The CATNLF concept is intended to boost laminar flow over a wing surface, therefore reducing drag and improving efficiency.

For the tests, the F-15B has been fitted with a three-foot scale model of a CATNLF wing design, mounted under the belly, in a vertical position. Earlier this month, the F-15B was taxied at a speed of 144 miles per hour with the wing model fitted. A first flight in this configuration is planned in the coming weeks.

The CATNLF wing is tailored to address a key problem of laminar flow technology, namely the effect of crossflow, an aerodynamic phenomenon that occurs on angled surfaces. Even large, swept wings of the kinds found on most commercial airliners have crossflow tendencies.

According to earlier NASA studies, the CATNLF wing design, if incorporated in a large, long-range aircraft like the Boeing 777, could result in annual fuel savings of up to 10 percent.

While the legacy F-15 continues to provide valuable service to NASA, the Air Force has recently moved to adapt its plans for the phase-out of the jet.

Already, the Air Force has given up its last active-duty F-15C/Ds. The final active-duty squadrons to be deactivated were at Kadena Air Base, Japan, which you can read about here. A handful of test jets remain in use, with all other F-15C/Ds now assigned to the Air National Guard.

Previously, the Air Force’s Fiscal Year 2024 budget request detailed plans to divest the entirety of the F-15C/D fleet by 2026.

As of last October, however, the service said it planned to retain some of its F-15C/Ds until 2030. The Air Force determined these aging jets are still needed for the homeland defense mission, something it laid out in its Long-Term Fighter Force Structure report.

The report was mandated by Congress in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act, which called for the Air Force to clarify its long-term fighter plans.

Under these plans, the Air Force wants to keep 42 F-15C/Ds as part of its combat-coded total aircraft inventory through 2028. Thereafter, a reduced fleet of 21 of the youngest jets will continue to serve with the California Air National Guard’s 144th Fighter Wing until 2030.

At this point, the Air Force’s legacy Eagles should be fully replaced. The last F-15C/Ds are slated to be superseded by the F-15EX, while some others will have been replaced by F-35s; one A-10 unit is also receiving them. However, it should be noted that the Air Force itself has described its Long-Term Fighter Force Structure document as highly aspirational, and such plans are, by their nature, liable to change.

Whatever the future brings for the legacy F-15 with the U.S. Air Force, the recent arrivals at the Armstrong Flight Research Center confirm the continued value of the Eagle for NASA’s exacting test missions.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Russia’s heavy missile barrage directed against Ukraine on the night of January 20 appears to have involved the use of several new or unusual weapons. Various sources, unofficial and official, point to the possible use of a new version of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), as well as the rarely employed Zircon hypersonic cruise missile. Wreckage recovered in Ukraine also confirms, for the first time, Russia’s use of repurposed missile targets for air defenses in a land-attack role.

According to a report from the Ukrainian Air Force Command, a total of 34 missiles of various types were used in the raid, along with 339 drones, approximately 250 of which were Shahed/Geran-series types. Ukraine claims that 14 of 18 ballistic missiles launched from Iskander and S-300/S-400 systems, 13 of 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic bombers, and 315 of 339 long-range drones were destroyed.

Note: The missile shown at the top of this story is the S-400 surface-to-air missile, a weapon which is also used in a land-attack capacity.

Based on Ukrainian accounts, Russia used an improved version of the Iskander to strike at least one target in the Vinnytsia region, deep inside Ukraine, on the night of January 20. While this is yet to be independently confirmed, it has also been reported by Russian media.

Reports began to emerge last year that Russia was poised to start mass-producing a new version of the Iskander SRBM, with greater range and improved accuracy. The original 9K720 Iskander-M’s solid-fuel 9M723 ballistic missiles have, according to official figures, a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles), although there is evidence that they can fly further than that.

The new version, the name of which is unknown, is assumed to have a range of at least 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), resulting in it being unofficially dubbed Iskander-1000. Ukrainian authorities also refer to the new weapons as Iskander-I.

Regardless, the reported range would put the new missile in the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) category. MRBMs are categorized as ballistic missiles with maximum ranges between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometers (620 and 1,860 miles), while SRBMs can reach out to between 300 and 1,000 kilometers (190 and 620 miles).

This is, reportedly, the only known photo of the so-called Iskander-1000, taken during tests:

According to available reports, the longer-range Iskander uses a more powerful and efficient engine to increase its range; a reduced-size warhead would be another way to help achieve this, providing more space for fuel. Accuracy is meanwhile enhanced by a new navigation and guidance system. This is assessed to include a new inertial guidance system (INS), supplemented by Glonass satellite navigation, and perhaps a radar seeker for the terminal phase. This is said to provide for an accuracy of within 16 feet. No information is available on the warhead.

Like the earlier Iskander, the Iskander-1000 is likely to be able to perform high-G maneuvers in the terminal phase and to dispense decoys, to better evade air defenses.

Examples of the decoys deployed by the 9M723 ballistic missile:

Also relevant here is the emergence of reports about the Iskander-1000 after the termination by the United States of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). This had previously prohibited the Soviet Union (later Russia) and the United States from fielding any ground-launched conventional or nuclear-capable missile of any type that can hit targets between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 and 3,420 miles) away.

The demise of INF frees Russia from such restrictions, including on versions of the Iskander. As such, the Iskander-1000 would not only have significance in the conflict in Ukraine (being able to strike targets in the west of the country) but also against NATO in Europe. If launched from the Kaliningrad exclave, the Iskander-1000’s range would cover almost the entire Baltic Sea region, all of Denmark, and most of Germany.

Speaking to the Russian daily newspaper Moskovskij Komsomolets, “military consultant” Anton Trutze said that the Iskander-1000 (coupled with the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile) ensured “superiority over Soviet capabilities in the class of operational-tactical missiles, which were once limited by the INF Treaty.” The result for Russia, he claimed, was “a serious argument in operational and political terms.”

Another theory is that the ballistic missile reported as the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I was something else altogether.

Ukrainian authorities state that Russia launched a Zircon hypersonic missile from occupied Crimea. This weapon, designed primarily for anti-shipping, has previously been combat-tested in Ukraine. According to the U.S. Strategic Command, the Zircon is capable of traveling at speeds of up to Mach 8.

In February 2024, evidence emerged that Russia had, for the first time, used the Zircon in attacks on at least one target in Ukraine. Ukrainian scientists showed a video of the Zircon wreckage — “fragments of the engine and steering mechanisms [with] specific markings,” seen below:

According to Ukrainian media reports, the Zircon was launched toward Vinnytsia. With this in mind, it’s possible that the Zircon was misreported as an Iskander-1000/Iskander-I, although these are very different weapons. By all accounts, the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I is a ballistic missile, while the Zircon, while still mysterious, is known to be a hypersonic cruise missile, likely with a ramjet powerplant. Such a mix-up would be puzzling, but it remains possible.

More concrete evidence is available concerning the use of another Russian missile on the night of January 20.

This is the RM-48U, which was developed as a target missile for the training of S-300 and S-400 air defense system crews. The RM-48U is fired from the same launchers and is based on reworked 5V55 or 48N6 missiles, as used by these systems, after they reach the end of their service lives.

Debris showing parts clearly marked as RM-48U was found after the raid, as seen in the composite below.

This is the first time since the start of the full-scale war that the RM-48U has been fired against Ukraine, according to the country’s Main Intelligence Directorate, which assesses that Russia currently has approximately 400 of these missiles in its inventory.

What’s unclear at this point is whether the target missile was fitted with a warhead, turning it into a true land-attack weapon, or if it was fired together with ballistic missiles as a decoy, helping to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

According to Alexander Kovalenko, from Ukraine’s Information Resistance Group, the RM-48U missiles can have a range of between 30 and 120 kilometers (19 to 75 miles), depending on how they are modified.

Kovalenko assumes that the RM-48Us are retrofitted with warheads to make up for the lack of regular ballistic missiles, specifically Iskanders. Kovalenko said that Russia is likely capable of producing only around two 9M723 missiles (for the Iskander system) per day. Back in September 2022, Ukrainian intelligence sources claimed that only 13 percent of Russia’s pre-war stocks of Iskander ballistic missiles were left, forcing it to find other solutions.

Based on the estimated range, however, even the higher-end figure, the RM-48U is hardly an adequate substitute for an Iskander. Also, considering their original role, the accuracy of the RM-48U is likely poor, making them only suitable for very short-range strikes against area targets — or as decoys.

Russia already makes use of missiles as decoys, including time-expired air-launched cruise missiles, with their previous nuclear warheads removed. You can read more about that trend here.

At the same time, there is also a long-established precedent for using S-300 and S-400 air defense systems to fire their standard surface-to-air missile effectors against ground targets in Ukraine. The S-300 does possess a little-known surface-to-surface capability, although it is far from accurate in this role.

Finally, the same missile barrage provided evidence of very recently manufactured Kh-101 cruise missiles, which are launched from Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers. At least one of the Kh-101s reportedly downed by Ukrainian air defenses indicates that it was manufactured in the first quarter of 2026. The use of such a recent missile further underscores how Russia has depleted its stocks of older weapons, a situation that we have discussed in the past and which is exacerbated by sanctions that have disrupted its ability to produce precision weapons at scale. Considering just how new the Kh-101 in question is, it shows that Russia is meanwhile using them in a ‘just in time’ fashion, as soon as they roll off the production line.

Цієї ночі застосовані Х-101 2026 року випуску. Прямо з заводу. Тому будь який екстра вплив на доступність компонентів дає ефект.

This night, Kh-101 missiles manufactured in 2026 were used — straight from the factory. That’s why any additional pressure on the availability of… pic.twitter.com/yIRqTayCk9

— Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺 (@vladvlas) January 20, 2026

Taken together, these missile developments indicate that Russia is continuing to vary the mix of weapons (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones), and also decoys, in its large-scale attacks on Ukraine. At the same time, the use of both brand-new missiles and repurposed target missiles points to general shortages of purpose-designed missiles and decoys.

For Ukraine, however, whether new or old, the sheer numbers of missiles and drones that Russia continues to bombard it with ensure that its hard air defenses remain very much under pressure. This is a particular concern when the supply of Western-supplied air defense systems remains strictly limited, and with the biting winter months making life especially difficult for its civilian population.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Tehran, Iran – The Iranian state has rejected a resolution by the United Nations’ Human Rights Council that strongly condemned the “violent crackdown on peaceful protests” by security forces that left thousands dead.

After a detailed meeting and discussions in Geneva on Friday, 25 members of the council, including France, Japan and South Korea, voted in favour of the censure resolution.

Seven votes against, including from China, India and Pakistan, as well as 14 abstentions, among others from Qatar and South Africa, failed to stop the resolution.

The human rights council called on Iran to stop the arrests of people in connection with the protests, and to take steps to “prevent extrajudicial killing, other forms of arbitrary deprivation of life, enforced disappearance, sexual and gender-based violence” and other actions violating its human rights obligations.

Iran said that the Western-led sponsors of the emergency meeting on Friday had never genuinely cared for human rights in Iran, or else they would not have imposed sanctions that have devastated the Iranian population over the past decade.

Ali Bahreini, Iran’s envoy in the meeting, reiterated the state’s claim that 3,117 people were killed during the unrest, 2,427 of whom were killed by “terrorists” armed and funded by the United States, Israel and their allies.

“It was ironic that states whose history was stained with genocide and war crimes now attempted to lecture Iran on social governance and human rights,” he said.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says it has confirmed at least 5,137 deaths during the protests, and is investigating 12,904 others.

UN special rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato, has said the death toll could reach 20,000 or more as reports from doctors from inside Iran emerge. Al Jazeera has been unable to independently verify the figures.

UN human rights chief Volker Turk told the council that “the brutality in Iran continued, creating conditions for further human rights violations, instability and bloodshed” weeks after the killings on January 8 and January 9, when a communications blackout was also enforced.

Turk pointed out that executions for murder, drug-related and other charges continue across Iran, with the state executing at least 1,500 people in 2025, marking an enormous 50 percent increase compared with the year before.

Payam Akhavan, a professor and former UN prosecutor of Iranian-Canadian nationality who was at Friday’s meeting as a civil society representative, called the killings “the worst mass-murder in the contemporary history of Iran”.

He said as a prosecutor at the International Criminal Tribunal in the Hague, he had helped draft the indictment for the Srebrenica genocide in which some 8,000 Bosniaks were killed in July 1995.

“By comparison, at least twice that number had been killed in Iran in half the time. This was an extermination,” he said.

The adopted UN council resolution also extended the mandate of the special rapporteur for another year, while adding two more years to the mandate of the independent fact-finding mission that was formed to investigate killings and rights abuses during Iran’s nationwide protests in 2022 and 2023.

More videos emerge despite internet blackout

Meanwhile, the internet blackout continues to be enforced amid growing frustration and anger from the public and businesses alike.

Global internet observatory Netblocks reported that international internet remained effectively blocked on Saturday despite brief moments of connectivity.

Some users have been able to overcome the digital blackout over recent days for short periods of time using a variety of proxies and virtual private networks (VPNs).

The limited number of users who have managed to get online, whether by using a combination of circumvention tools or leaving the country’s borders, continue to upload horrifying footage of killings during the protests.

International human rights bodies like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have attested that many of the reviewed videos show state forces firing live ammunition at protesters, including from heavy machineguns.

The state rejects all such accounts, claiming that security forces only fired at “terrorists” and “rioters” who attacked government offices and burned public property.

Threat of war looms

The back and forth over one of Iran’s bloodiest chapters since its 1979 revolution continues as the threat of war looms large over the embattled 90-million-strong nation once again.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in Iran if it kills protesters. Washington is moving the USS Abraham Lincoln supercarrier, along with its strike group of supporting vessels, towards the Middle East in a move that has raised fears of more US strikes on Iran in the aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel in June.

More US military aircraft, including fighter jets, have also been deployed to the region despite interventions from regional powers in an attempt to prevent an escalation.

Top Iranian authorities continue to send defiant messages to US President Donald Trump amid the rapid military buildup.

“He [Trump] certainly says many things,” Majid Mousavi, the new aerospace chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told state television on Saturday. “He can be certain that we will respond to him in the field of battle”.

“He can say better things even if he is trying to escape the wishes of others who want to impose things on him,” said Ali Shamkhani, a top security official and representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the newly formed Supreme Defence Council.

One of Iran’s top judicial authorities also shot back at Trump after the US president last week called for the end of Khamenei’s 37-year-rule in the country.

“These acts of insolence and audacity are, in our view, tantamount to a declaration of all-out war, and based on this approach, in the event of any aggression, US interests around the world will be exposed to threat by supporters of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” said Mohammad Movahedi, the hardline cleric who heads the prosecutor general’s authority.

Australia has taken the next step in its wide-ranging program to overhaul its air force with the arrival of its first MC-55A Peregrine. The platform, configured for “airborne intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare” (AISREW), is a highly modified version of the Gulfstream G550 business jet, an increasingly popular choice for adaptation for these kinds of specialist missions.

Aviation photographer @airman941 shared with TWZ photos of the arrival of the MC-55 at RAAF Base Edinburgh, South Australia, its future home base. The jet touched down there at 3:53 p.m. local time today, after a multi-leg delivery flight that took it from the L3Harris facility in Greenville, Texas, to Australia via stopovers at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona; Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii; Wake Island; and Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

The MC-55, which is still wearing its U.S. civilian test registration N584GA, is one of four currently on order for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), supposedly the third to be built. On its tailfin, the jet already wears the marking of its operating unit, No. 10 Squadron, which previously flew the AP-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, including the RAAF’s secretive electronic warfare versions.

In 2017, the U.S. State Department gave approval for Australia to purchase up to five of the modified jets, plus their specialized systems. Two years later, Canberra announced the AISREW program, confirming the $1.6-billion acquisition of four of the modified G550 aircraft under Project AIR 555.

By the spring of 2022, the first MC-55 was spotted flying test sorties from Gulfstream’s plant in Savannah, Georgia, as you can read about here.

The MC-55’s comprehensive AISREW suite is reflected in the numerous antennas around the fuselage as well as the huge belly ‘canoe’ and bulbous tail cone containing additional sensors. An unidentified dome projects from below the tail. Below the fuselage, an extensive antenna ‘farm’ likely serves electronic and communications intelligence-gathering and communications relay functions. Other standout features of the modification include a satellite communications array in the dorsal position and a prominent satcom antenna fairing atop the tailfin.

Unlike certain other G550 conversions, the MC-55 lacks the conformal ‘cheek’ fairings that contain active electronically scanned array (AESA) antennas, as found on the U.S. Navy’s NC-37B range tracking jet and the U.S. Air Force’s EA-37B Compass Call, for example.

The aircraft is also intended to serve as a networking relay and data-fusion platform. In this way, it will serve as a node within Australia’s joint warfighting network, linking together aircraft such as the F-35A, E-7A Wedgetail, and EA-18G Growler, as well as Royal Australian Navy surface combatants and amphibious ships, and ground forces.

This would involve the MC-55 creating an ‘active net’ across the battlespace, which would also cover lower flying drones and networked cruise missiles, for example, as well as everything else. Such a function is similar to that provided by the U.S. Air Force’s E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node, or BACN, fleet.

Details of the various sensors have not been revealed, but in the past, we speculated that the belly ‘canoe’ and bulbous tail cone likely contain AESA arrays, which would be used for standoff electronic attacks, as well as intelligence-gathering. Potentially, the antenna below the belly could be multi-function, since AESA radars can be used for both pinpoint electronic attacks as well as for sensing and communications. This could possibly include being used for ground mapping and ground-moving target indication (GMTI) functions, although arrays that are more finely tuned to the electronic attack role seems most likely.

On the other hand, it could be the case that the MC-55 will serve primarily as a passive intelligence-collection platform, without AESAs or other active electronic warfare emitters. Nevertheless, the tail and the large ventral antenna fairings make this less likely.

Regardless of its precise functions, it’s clear that the MC-55 is intended as a multirole aircraft, encompassing a variety of functions that would have previously been distributed across discrete platforms. Putting all of this into a relatively small airframe is aided by advances in miniaturization, more powerful sensors, and the ability to transmit data to other nodes, in near real-time, using high-bandwidth satellite datalinks.

Even the U.S. Air Force’s new EA-37B, which can perform both electronic intelligence-gathering and electronic warfare missions, is likely less flexible than the MC-55. Notably, contractor L3Harris Technologies is responsible for integrating the mission systems on the EA-37B and the MC-55.

Ultimately, the MC-55 has been tailored to meet the requirements of what Australia has dubbed its “fully networked fifth-generation air force.”

Central to this effort is a major expansion of the RAAF’s electronic warfare and ISR capabilities, which we discussed at length in this past TWZ feature. In this regard, Australia has very much taken a lead when it comes to operating at the cutting edge of the radio-frequency spectrum.

It’s worth noting that the RAAF’s key crewed combat aircraft, the F-35A and F/A-18F Super Hornet, are both well-equipped with electronic warfare self-protection equipment, while the EA-18G is a specialist in the field of electronic attack. The opportunity to have all of these and more working closely with the MC-55 as part of a wider electronic attack and electronic intelligence collection ecosystem is significant.

Another area in which the RAAF is playing a pioneering role is in the introduction of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

Australia has already acquired eight MQ-28A Ghost Bat drones, all pre-production prototypes, also referred to as Block 1 aircraft. The service previously awarded Boeing a contract to deliver at least three more examples in the improved Block 2 configuration.

So far, the RAAF has tested the E-7 as a control platform for the MQ-28, including in multi-ship formations. In the future, the MC-55 would also appear to be an ideal platform for this kind of crewed-uncrewed teaming. While the MQ-28 has been used to test-fire the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), electronic warfare is also seen as a very likely future mission. As such, the drone could carry electronic payloads into more contested airspace, working collaboratively with the MC-55, which is not a highly survivable asset. Controlled from aboard the MC-55, the drones could extend the crewed aircraft’s reach, as well as provide an extended-range self-protection escort function.

Operating out of RAAF Base Edinburgh, the home base of the service’s Surveillance and Response Group (SRG), also known as No. 92 Wing, the MC-55 will certainly work closely with maritime surveillance aircraft, in the shape of the P-8A Poseidon (co-located at the same base) and the MQ-4C Triton high-altitude long-endurance drone. At one time, MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones were also planned to join the SRG, before Australia canceled its order and redirected funds elsewhere.

Outside of Base Edinburgh, dedicated MC-55 support facilities are planned for RAAF Base Darwin in the Northern Territory, RAAF Base Townsville in Queensland, and on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, ensuring even greater regional coverage and operational flexibility.

With the growing Chinese military threat in the Indo-Pacific region, evidenced by an increasing number of incidents involving the Australian Defense Force and China’s military, the MC-55 will almost certainly be used to keep tabs on this potential adversary. The aircraft’s ISR capabilities mean it will be well-suited to surveilling Chinese military expansion and monitoring Beijing’s activities in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere. In this regard, the option to operate the MC-55 out of the Cocos Islands, deep in the Indian Ocean, approximately midway between Australia and Sri Lanka, will be especially valuable.

The MC-55 looks set to be one of, if not the most prized, low-density, high-demand assets within the RAAF. It also points to the Gulfstream bizjet as being among the platforms of choice for these kinds of modifications. Platforms like these are becoming increasingly cost-effective, thanks in no small part to steady improvements in jet engine technology, and their popularity has been proven out by continued new orders.

Whether Australia buys more MC-55s remains to be seen. At one time, five were planned, but the program has also suffered from delays. Previously, the first example had been slated for delivery in 2022.

For the time being, however, the Royal Australian Air Force will be looking forward to the introduction to service of its first MC-55A Peregrine, an aircraft that is set to radically enhance its wider ISR and electronic warfare capabilities.

With thanks to @airman941 for sharing photos with us. You can find more of his work here.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Donald Trump’s latest attempt to seize Greenland shows that the president is willing to use US force to determine international borders, even at the expense of sovereignty.

Western allies – NATO countries included –  publicly formed a united front, but private messages have revealed a more deferential approach to dealing with Trump.

This latest crisis may have been averted, but the question remains: Does the so-called rules-based international order apply to Trump?

Contributors: 
Louise Bokkenheuser – Writer and editor
Branko Marcetic – Staff writer, Jacobin
Anchal Vohra – Columnist, Foreign Policy
Ulrich Bruckner – Professor for European studies, Stanford University

On our radar:

Donald Trump launched his highly-publicised “Board of Peace” initiative at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

The signing ceremony followed a familiar pattern for this White House – a carefully staged event centred on Trump, his overblown claims of peacemaking, and speeches in praise of him. But the turnout appears to have fallen short of the hype.

A conversation with Ellie Leonard

Trump’s Justice Department was ordered to publish documents from the Epstein files more than a month ago. Only 1% of the heavily redacted material has been made public.

While the Trump administration floods the zone with news that mainstream outlets have been chasing, an unconventional team of investigators is digging into the Epstein files to see what’s there. They are led by online investigator Ellie Leonard in New York City.

Featuring: 

Ellie Leonard – Contributing editor, Blue Amp Media

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing an ambitious trade diversification strategy aimed at reducing Canada’s heavy reliance on the United States and positioning the country as a leader in a new, more flexible global trading order. Triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy and threats against allies, Carney has accelerated efforts to forge new economic partnerships, including a rare recent trade deal with China. His approach goes beyond that of many Western allies, reflecting a belief that the traditional, U.S.-led rules-based trading system is fragmenting.

Carney’s trade vision:
Carney has openly argued that multilateral institutions and global trade rules are being eroded, making smaller “plurilateral” agreements between select countries more viable than broad global deals. He has cast Canada as a bridge between the European Union and Pacific Rim economies and pledged to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Diplomatic outreach to countries long peripheral to Canadian trade policy including Qatar, Ecuador, Indonesia, and the UAE signals a deliberate effort to widen Canada’s economic map.

China as a necessary partner:
China has emerged as a central, if controversial, pillar of Carney’s strategy. As Canada’s second-largest trading partner, Beijing offers the scale required to meaningfully offset U.S. dependence. Carney’s assertion that China has become a more “predictable” partner than the United States underscores Ottawa’s frustration with Washington, but it has raised alarms among trade experts. Economists warn that deeper integration with China risks exposing Canadian industries to market flooding and long-term strategic vulnerabilities, particularly as Chinese exports are increasingly redirected away from the U.S. to other markets.

Limits of diversification:
Despite diversification efforts, the United States still absorbs close to 70% of Canadian exports—far more than the EU’s roughly 20% exposure to the U.S. market. Analysts note that reducing U.S. export share by even 10% would require Canada to double exports to multiple large economies simultaneously, an extraordinarily difficult task. Energy trade illustrates the challenge: while Ottawa hopes to expand oil exports to Asia, about 90% of Canadian crude continues to flow south of the border.

Comparisons with Europe:
The European Union’s parallel push to diversify trade through deals with Mercosur, Indonesia, and renewed talks with India and Southeast Asia highlights both inspiration and contrast for Canada. Europe’s lower baseline dependence on the U.S. gives it greater room to manoeuvre, whereas Canada’s economy remains deeply integrated with U.S. supply chains. Ongoing negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement further limit how aggressively Canadian firms are willing to pivot away from the American market.

Expanding the deal pipeline:
Carney has markedly increased the pace of trade diplomacy. Canada has concluded agreements with Ecuador and Indonesia, signed investment deals with the UAE, and restarted talks with India after a diplomatic freeze under the previous government. According to Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, Ottawa is now targeting the Philippines, Thailand, Mercosur, Saudi Arabia, and India, aiming to complete multiple agreements in a timeframe that traditionally yielded just one deal per year.

Analysis:
Carney’s strategy reflects a clear-eyed assessment that U.S. economic leadership can no longer be taken for granted. His emphasis on plurilateralism and diversification is politically resonant and strategically necessary, but structurally constrained. Canada’s geography, supply chains, and energy infrastructure tie it to the U.S. in ways that cannot be rapidly undone. Engagement with China may provide short-term relief and bargaining leverage, yet it introduces its own economic and strategic risks. Ultimately, Carney’s bid to shape a new trade order is less about replacing the United States than about buying insurance against American volatility. Whether that insurance proves sufficient will depend on how quickly Canada can translate diplomatic activism into durable, balanced trade flows.

With information from Reuters.

A deal engineered by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) allowing Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to leave the prison from where they have been under siege by Syrian government forces is a move that will protect U.S. troops in that country, a U.S. official told The War Zone Friday morning. There are still about 1,000 U.S. troops in Syria, tasked with continuing the fight against ISIS, the official added.

The Syrian government has been battling the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed SDF fighters for weeks as it tries to assert its control over the entire country after the December 2024 overthrow of dictator Bashar Al-Assad. The government wants to subsume SDF into its own security apparatus. That fighting, said the official, is allowing ISIS greater freedom of movement. Two U.S. Army soldiers and an interpreter were killed last month in an ISIS ambush.

The deal to allow SDF fighters to leave Raqqah is an effort to keep a fragile truce, which expires Jan. 24, from falling apart, the official noted. The truce was arranged on Jan. 20 in an effort to stop the bloodshed between the government and SDF after a previous ceasefire broke down.

“In a rare sign of goodwill in Syria, Syrian President Al Sharaa agreed to allow 800 SDF fighters and civilians safe passage from Raqqah to Kobani,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “SDF were holed up for the last week in the Raqqah prison, where they sought temporary refuge in the fighting. Earlier today, a convoy of more than 160 vehicles arrived safely in Kobani, a traditionally Kurdish region.”

“The deal was brokered by U.S. Central Command as a measure to cool things down in Syria after weeks of intense fighting between the Syrian Government and SDF,” the official added. CENTCOM declined comment.

The safe passage decision comes as U.S. troops have elevated security concerns as they transport some 7,000 ISIS prisoners from Syria to Iraq, a highly complex operation. CENTCOM has carried out three waves of attacks against ISIS leaders in the wake of the deadly ambush, called Operation Hawkeye Strike, and U.S. officials are wary of retaliation.

US Launches ‘Operation Hawkeye Strike’ In Syria After ISIS Attack Kills American Troops | 4K

“We are closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government, and we sincerely appreciate their role in ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS,” CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said earlier this week. “Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to the United States and regional security.”

Continued fighting between the two groups would imperil U.S. troops, the official explained.

“We don’t want to put U.S. troops in the middle” of fighting “between the Syrian government and the SDF,” said the official. “It would have fomented further instability and violence that would have made an already complex operation transferring ISIS prisoners even more challenging.”

The official declined to offer specifics of how the transfer is being carried out, but said that the U.S. is “looking to do it in days, not weeks.”

All this comes as CENTCOM has been working to ease tensions between the Syrian government and the SDF. That group has been a major ally against ISIS, but has also been embroiled in fighting against not just the government, but Turkish-led forces in the north as well, adding to regional instability.

“We have been working to support the negotiated integration of SDF forces into Syrian government forces,” the official posited; however, several previous such efforts have broken down and hostilities resumed. For his part, SDF leader Mazloum Abdi expressed optimism about this latest ceasefire.

“We convened a productive and constructive meeting in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq with U.S. Ambassador [to Turkey] Tom Barrack and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command,” Abdi explained on X. “The support of the United States and President Trump’s policy for the ceasefire [is] of utmost significance and greatly appreciated. Additionally, Ambassador Barrack’s commendable efforts to facilitate dialogue and negotiations between us and the Syrian government are serious, essential and highly valued. We will diligently and with all our capabilities work to achieve genuine integration and maintain the current ceasefire.”

U.S. forces in Syria are mostly based in the northeast, but there is also a base in southern Syria, called Al-Tanf, located along the borders of Jordan and Iraq. U.S. forces across Syria have been subjected to attacks by Iranian-backed militias as well as ISIS, prompting frequent kinetic responses.

The current level of U.S. troops in Syria is about half what it was a year ago, when a U.S. official told us there were plans to drastically reduce the American footprint in that country. There may be a new effort underway that would eliminate the U.S. military presence from the country, where America and allies have been battling ISIS since it took over large swaths of land in Syria and Iraq in 2014.

“Washington is considering a complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing anonymous U.S. officials. CENTCOM declined comment about that story when we asked.

The potential of having no troops in Syria raised alarms by some Republican senators worried that the lack of a U.S. presence in that country would create a dangerous security risk.

“Wow, if true, ISIS would love that,” Lindsey Graham (R-SC) exclaimed on X. “A small footprint of Americans working with locals is an insurance policy against the reemergence of ISIS and an attack on our homeland. I believe it’s time for a new approach and new eyes on Syria. I am confident that many senators – on both sides of the aisle – share my concerns about the implications of withdrawal when Syria is so unstable.”

Reducing the number of troops in Syria has been a goal of U.S. President Donald Trump. He called for a sudden, complete withdrawal during his first term in 2019, however, that was never fully implemented before he left office.

Whether Trump can pull off removing all U.S. forces from Syria during his second term remains to be seen. The country is still a very volatile place in a strategic area bordering Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey that has seen many parties wage hostilities there. And, as long as ISIS remains a force in Syria, it will continue to foster instability.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Protests in Iran have petered out. Tens of thousands have been arrested. And those accused of supporting the unrest have had business assets seized and are being pursued on “terrorism” charges. The authorities – for now – have reasserted control.

Yet, in the shadow of the apparent calm, the very same grievances that sparked the unrest remain, leaving Iran with little choice but to make tough compromises to win sanctions relief and fix the economy or face further upheaval, experts say. With a battered economy, a weakened network of regional allies and the looming threat of a US attack, Iran is at a crossroads.

“This is not a stable status quo – it’s just not tenable,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. “I am not predicting that the system will hit rock bottom tomorrow, but it’s in a spiral and from this point on, it can only go down if it refuses to change”.

The recent demonstrations erupted in late December when protests over a currency collapse morphed into a nationwide upheaval calling for the overthrow of the Islamic republic – Iran’s system of governance.

The authorities’ response led to one of the most violent confrontations since the country’s 1979 revolution.

Iranian state media said the protests had left 3,117 people dead, including 2,427 civilians and members of the security forces. US-based human rights activists say that more than 4,500 people have been killed. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify the figures.

Economic crisis

Protests in past years, such as the unrest sparked by a fuel price hike in 2019 or the women-led demonstrations in 2022, were followed by the state dispensing subsidies and loosening up on social restrictions. But this time around, it has limited options for addressing the distress that sparked the recent demonstrations.

Due to decades of international sanctions, as well as mismanagement and corruption, the Iranian rial’s value has nose-dived, and oil revenues have shrunk. Inflation last year peaked at more than 42 percent, according to International Monetary Fund data. By comparison, the rate was at 6.8 in 2016 – a year after Iran and world powers signed a deal that curbed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 – during his first term in office – and reimposed sanctions.

On top of that, Iran suffers from electricity outages and chronic water shortages, making life increasingly difficult for the average citizen.

To get some sanctions relief, Iran needs to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration. But that would require Khamenei making concessions on what have been Iran’s core foreign policy pillars, namely its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles and supporting a network of allies across the region.

They have been key components of Iran’s “forward defence” strategy – a military doctrine aimed at preventing fighting from reaching Iranian territory. Changes to any of these elements would represent a profound shift in the security architecture built up by Khamenei. While in the past, the supreme leader has shown openness to partially curbing the nuclear programme, concessions over missiles and the so-called axis of resistance have been non-negotiable.

“It is unclear whether Iran is willing to formally accept restrictions” on these three elements, said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of news site Amwaj.media. “As Trump has threatened a renewed bombing campaign if Iran resumes enrichment, Khamenei seems paralysed in his decision-making,” he added.

Trump has said that he wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure entirely, an option that Iran has ruled out, insisting that its enrichment programme is for civilian purposes.

Concerning support for non-state actors in the region, Iran has been working on reconfiguring that network following the war last June with Israel, said Halireza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Israel has, in the past few years, degraded the arsenal and decapitated the leadership of what was Iran’s strongest ally in the region, Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Non-state actors in Iraq have become more involved in that country’s political system and, therefore, more cautious, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has collapsed. And finally, Iran itself was directly attacked by Israel, the first time it has faced a full-scale attack from its chief regional enemy.

After that war, a heated debate on the actual benefit of working with non-state actors ensued in Iran, Azizi said. The argument that prevailed was that Iranian soil had been struck only after regional allies were weakened, and not before.

“So the policy 1769252794 is to double down and try to revive that network” with some modification, Azizi said.

The focus, he said, has shifted to working with smaller groups in Iraq, find new ways to transfer weapons to Hezbollah and rely more on the Houthis in Yemen. It is too soon, and information is too limited, to assess whether the protests and the threat of a US strike have changed that calculus, but official channels indicate that there have been no modifications.

Is change inevitable?

Talks between Iran and the US are not off the table. At the height of the protests, tensions soared after Trump hinted that he was about to strike Iran over what he said was Iran’s brutal crackdown. But he toned down the rhetoric after Gulf Arab nations pushed him to refrain from attacking Iran – a move they fear would plunge the region into chaos.

On Thursday, Trump signalled that channels between Washington and Tehran were open. “Iran does want to talk, and we’ll talk,” he said during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

But his remarks came as the US moves military assets to the Middle East, likely an attempt to strong-arm Iran into a deal. “We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won’t have to use them,” Trump said on Friday.

Still, should Iran end up making major concessions, the perception of security and legitimacy may be hard to restore. For years, the implicit social contract between the Iranian people and the system has been based on the guarantee of security at the expense of social and political freedom. But that pillar of legitimacy was shattered by last year’s war with Israel, when at least 610 people were killed in Iran over 12 days.

“The social contract between state and society in Iran has withered over the decades, and with the disruptions to basic services over the past year amid electricity and water crises, the provision of security is now also under question,” Shabani said. “To ensure its longevity, the Islamic Republic is thus faced with the broader challenge of having to explain to the public what it can provide, and why it must continue to exist”.

According to Azizi, a transformation has already started with the political system moving from a clerical into a military leadership as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – an elite force established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution – has grown into the country’s most powerful economic and political actor.

“After the death or removal of Khamenei, we are not going to see the Islamic Republic as we know it,” Azizi said.

“Whether that it’s gonna give more impetus to the people to come to the streets to initiate regime change, or it’s going to result in a Soviet-style scenario of regime transformation with the security establishment reemerging in a different form, that is an open question, but change is inevitable.”

The armed wing of Hamas, Al-Qassam Brigades, released a video message on Wednesday afternoon showing an Israeli captive currently held in Gaza, the Palestinian Information Centre has reported. The footage shows Omri Miran lighting a candle on what he described as his “second birthday” in captivity.

“This is my second birthday here. I can’t say I’m celebrating; it’s just another day in captivity,” said Miran. “I made this cake for the occasion, but there is no joy. It’s been a year and a half. I miss my daughters and my wife terribly.”

He addressed the Israeli public directly, including his family and friends. “Conditions here are extremely tough. Thank you to everyone demonstrating to bring us home safely.”

The captive also urged Israelis to stage a mass protest outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. “Bring my daughters so I can see them on TV. Do everything you can now to get us home. Netanyahu’s supporters don’t care about us, they’d rather see us dead.”

Screengrab from footage shows Israeli captive Omri Miran

He asked captives released in previous prisoner exchange deals to protest and speak to the media. “Let the people know how bad it is for us. We live in constant fear of bombings. A deal must be reached soon before we return home in coffins.

Miran urged demonstrators to appeal to US President Donald Trump to put pressure on Netanyahu: “Do not believe Netanyahu. Military pressure is only killing us. A deal — only a deal — will bring us home. Turn to Trump. He seems to be the only powerful person in the world who could push Netanyahu to agree to a deal.”

He also mentioned the worsening humanitarian situation: “The captors told me the crossings are closed; no food or supplies are coming in. As a result, we’re receiving even less food than before.”

In conclusion, the captive sent a pointed message to the Israeli leadership: “Netanyahu, Dermer, Smotrich, Ben Gvir — you are the reason for 7 October. Because of you, I am here. Because of you, we’re all here. You’re bringing the state to collapse.”

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