TODAY

Mohammed Zakaria had not slept in two days when the news came that el-Fasher, his hometown, had fallen to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

The Sudanese video journalist and human rights activist had been monitoring the deteriorating situation from Kampala, Uganda, watching as the paramilitary seized the North Darfur governor’s office in the city on Friday, edging closer to taking control of all of it.

He feared the worst.

For Zakaria, the “nightmare” scenario is intensely personal. Searching through social media after the city’s fall, he discovered footage posted on Facebook by RSF soldiers celebrating, standing over dead bodies. He recognised three of his uncles among the dead.

“They are celebrating by killing them,” he said.

He said another uncle’s Facebook profile photo had been changed to an image of an RSF fighter, a chilling message about his possible fate.

“We don’t know where he is … we’re really scared for him,” he said.

The fall of el-Fasher

The city fell to the RSF on Sunday after an 18-month siege, the Sudanese army confirming its withdrawal from what was its last outpost in the Darfur region, held for months by the resolve of fighters holed up there.

The RSF’s capture of el-Fasher gives the paramilitary control over all five state capitals in Darfur, marking a significant turning point in Sudan’s civil war.

El-Fasher endured one of the longest urban sieges in modern warfare this century. The RSF began encircling it in May 2024 and intensified its assaults after being driven from the capital, Khartoum, by the army in March.

What followed its fall has been described by international observers as a massacre on an unprecedented scale, with satellite imagery and social media footage pointing to mass atrocities by RSF fighters, reportedly along ethnic lines.

“We have been talking about this for more than a year. We knew this would happen,” Zakaria told Al Jazeera, his voice breaking.

Sarra Majdoub, a former UN Security Council expert on Sudan, told Al Jazeera observers were warning for months of the city’s fall, like other major urban areas in Darfur that were captured by the RSF, but “they surprisingly held on for a really long time”.

A communications blackout has all but cut off connection from the city, leaving those with loved ones there in a state of anxious uncertainty.

An estimated 260,000 civilians remained trapped in the city when it fell, half of them children.

The Sudan Doctors Network said a “heinous massacre” had taken place in el-Fasher, while the Joint Forces, a coalition of armed groups allied with the Sudanese army, said 2,000 people had been executed. The UN said it documented 1,350 deaths.

Reports of atrocities

The Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab, which monitors the war in Sudan, reported Tuesday that satellite imagery revealed evidence consistent with mass killings, including what seem to be visible pools of blood and clusters of corpses.

Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of the Humanitarian Research Lab, told a media briefing on Tuesday that the killings were “only comparable to Rwanda-style killings”, referring to the 1994 Tutsi genocide in which hundreds of thousands of people were killed in weeks.

As early as October 2, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk warned of the risk of “large-scale, ethnically driven attacks and atrocities”, calling for immediate action to prevent it.

Social media footage verified by Al Jazeera’s Sanad fact-checking agency after the city’s fall showed many instances of RSF fighters carrying out summary executions of civilians. In one video, an RSF commander bragged that he had killed 2,000 people.

In a statement on Monday, the RSF said it was committed to “protecting civilians”.

Majdoub told Al Jazeera that the voyeuristic nature of the videos recorded by RSF fighters was among the “most disturbing elements” of the violence.

She recalled that fighters filming abuses had been seen before in places such as el-Geneina in West Darfur and Gezira state, “but el-Fasher has been different, their violence is more exaggerated.”

“It is very painful,” Zakaria said, “finding videos in social media, and then you find that you know this person, who is a friend, or a distant relative, or uncle, surrounded by RSF fighters.

“This is a reality now for many people”.

He remains unable to locate dozens of friends and relatives.

Among them is Dr Mudathir Ibrahim Suleiman, medical director of Saudi Hospital, whom Zakaria last spoke to early Saturday morning, hours before the RSF took the city.

“He told me he would escape with his father and relatives,” Zakaria said. “Until now, I didn’t hear anything … We found that some doctors reached Tawila, but Dr Mudathir is not among them.”

Darfur’s governor, Minni Minnawi, said on Wednesday the RSF had committed a massacre in the Saudi Hospital, killing 460 people. He also posted footage on X showing a summary execution.

Residents who spoke to Al Jazeera in the weeks before the final offensive described daily bombardments and periodic drone strikes. People dug trenches to hide in at dawn as shelling began, sometimes remaining underground for hours.

The United Nations migration agency reported that more than 26,000 people fled the fighting since Sunday, either heading to the outskirts of the city or attempting the dangerous journey to Tawila, 70km (43.5 miles) to the west.

‘Genocide is happening now’

Zakaria left el-Fasher in June 2024, during the siege, making the perilous journey through South Sudan to Uganda after his house was shelled and he witnessed a deadly attack that killed seven people, including women and children, near his grandfather’s home.

“It was like the hardest decision I have made in my life, to leave my city,” he said.

From Kampala, he continued monitoring the violence and advocating for people.

El-Fasher had appealed for intervention for more than 17 months, he said, while humanitarian organisations operated in Tawila, just three hours away by car.

“The time has passed for actions. The genocide is happening now,” he said.

Zakaria says more than 100 people he knows remain unaccounted for in el-Fasher.

He continues searching social media and calling contacts, hoping for information.

US Embassy urges citizens to leave Mali immediately on commercial flights as blockade makes daily life more dangerous.

Parts of Mali’s capital have been brought to a near standstill as a group affiliated with al-Qaeda imposes an economic siege on the country by blocking routes used by fuel tankers, in a bid to turn the screw on the military government.

As the Sahel country plunges deeper into crisis, the United States Embassy in Mali on Tuesday urged US citizens to “depart immediately” as the fuel blockade renders daily life increasingly dangerous.

Long queues have formed at petrol stations in the capital Bamako this week, with anger reaching the boiling point as the blockade bites harder. A lack of supplies has caused the price of fuel to shoot up 500 percent, from $25 to $130 per litre, according to Al Jazeera’s Nicolas Haque.

The Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) armed group, which imposed the blockade last month in retaliation for the military banning fuel sales in rural areas, appeared to be succeeding in turning public anger against the country’s rulers, Haque noted.

“It’s up to the government to play a full role and take action, to … uncover the real reason for this shortage,” Omar Sidibe, a driver in Bamako, told Al Jazeera.

Haque said the al-Qaeda fighters were burning fuel trucks as supplies ran out.

Schools and universities have also been shut for two weeks, and airlines are now cancelling flights from Bamako.

Meanwhile, the US Embassy has warned Americans to leave Mali immediately using commercial flights rather than travelling over land to neighbouring countries, owing to the risk of “terrorist attacks along national highways”.

It advised citizens who choose to remain in Mali to prepare contingency plans, including for sheltering in place for an extended period.

Yet, Haque said, the military rulers were insisting “everything is under control”.

The army first seized power in a 2020 coup, pledging to get a grip on a spiralling security crisis involving armed groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS), but years later, the crisis has only escalated.

Tanks ’empty’

Amid tense scenes from a fuel pit stop in Senegal, which neighbours Mali, truck drivers ready to travel across the border did not want to speak to Al Jazeera on camera. Haque said some transport companies had been accused of paying al-Qaeda fighters to move their trucks.

“They’ve been waiting here not days, but months, their tanks empty. Ahead for them is a dangerous road or journey into al-Qaeda territory,” Haque said from Dakar.

Meanwhile, in Bamako, citizens are growing increasingly desperate. “Before, we could buy gas everywhere in cans. But now there’s no more,” gas reseller Bakary Coulibaly told Al Jazeera.

“We’re forced to come to gas stations, and even if we go there, it’s not certain that there will be gasoline available. Only a few stations have it.”

JNIM is one of several armed groups operating in the Sahel, a vast strip of semi-arid desert stretching from North to West Africa, where fighting is spreading rapidly, with large-scale attacks.

Under the military’s control, the country severed ties with its former coloniser, France, and thousands of French soldiers involved in the battle against the armed groups exited the country.

The fighting has resulted in thousands of deaths, while up to 350,000 people are currently displaced, according to Human Rights Watch.

Kyiv, Ukraine – Both Russia and Ukraine depend on Chinese-made components for drones, jamming systems and the fibre optic cable attached to the drones to make them immune to jamming.

If Beijing wanted to end the Russia-Ukraine war, it could do so promptly and singlehandedly by banning the imports, according to one of the pioneers of drone warfare in Ukraine.

“Almost each component is made in China,” Andrey Pronin, who runs a drone school in Kyiv, told Al Jazeera. “China could cut off their side – or ours.”

Beijing supplies Moscow with four-fifths of drones, electronic chips and other dual-purpose goods that end up on the front line, keeping the Russian war machine rolling, according to Ukrainian intelligence.

Ukraine is trying to wean off its reliance on Chinese drones amid Beijing’s restriction of exports, but they still account for a staggering 97 percent of components, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank in Washington, DC.

United States President Donald Trump hopes that Thursday’s summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping can change that.

“I’d like China to help us out with Russia,” Trump said on October 24, two days after cancelling his talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and slapping sanctions on two Russian oil companies.

Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi in South Korea’s Seoul on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Their last meeting was held in 2019, in Japan’s Osaka.

Zelenskyy hopes meeting will ‘help us all’

Beijing, which has claimed it is officially neutral regarding the war, denies direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. But it plays a role as Moscow’s main political and economic backer.

As Beijing seeks to “return” Taiwan to its fold, Moscow is understood by observers to be sharing with the Chinese military information on the use of drones, the vulnerabilities of Western-supplied weaponry and the management of airborne troops.

Meanwhile, amid mounting Western sanctions, Beijing is buying discounted oil, gas and raw materials, paying Moscow tens of billions of dollars a year.

That is the weak spot Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants Trump to target in talks with Xi.

If Trump manages to “find an understanding with China about the reduction of Russian energy exports”, he said on Monday, “I think it’ll help us all.”

But Trump’s latest Russia sanctions slapped on state-owned oil giant Rosneft and the private Lukoil company could inadvertently strengthen Beijing.

Both companies will be forced to sell their foreign subsidiaries and diminish their role in international projects – namely, in ex-Soviet Central Asia and several African nations, where their place may be taken by Chinese companies.

According to Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, Xi’s role in ending the war is pivotal.

“Without the financial support, without the economic cooperation with China, Russia can’t continue the war,” he said. “China is Russia’s main economic resource.

“Had [Beijing] wanted to end this war, it would have achieved it very fast,” he added. “China’s harsh position in closed-door, non-public talks with Putin would be enough.”

However, Beijing has “no inclination or interest in making a gift to Trump”, said Fesenko.

During his first presidency, ties with Beijing spiralled as the White House sought to curb China’s growing global clout and its access to Western technologies.

China and the US have introduced tariffs on mutual exports as Beijing threatened to cut off the trade in critical minerals, and Washington promised to curb the transfer of technologies. The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to dominate the summit, as Trump and Xi have bigger fish to fry as their nations now face a trade war.

‘Freezing the war’

At the same time, Beijing has been boosting its economic clout in Eastern Europe, Moscow’s former stomping ground, investing heavily in new infrastructure.

“The escalation of the war, its spread to Europe, is something that contradicts China’s interests,” Fesenko said.

However, Washington and Beijing may want to keep the war simmering or frozen without letting Moscow or Kyiv win a decisive victory, argued Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych.

Washington is not going to benefit from Russia’s “overwhelming victory” as the Kremlin will undoubtedly seek the role of a “third global leader”, he said.

But neither Beijing or Washington could benefit from Russia’s full defeat, as China is concerned by destabilisation near its northern and northwestern borders.

“Washington is active about freezing the war,” Tyshkevych said. “I won’t be surprised if Beijing will be active in the same direction.”

If frozen, there are fears that the war could reignite when Russia recovers economically and accumulates enough resources.

To avoid that, Kyiv would look to building new or strengthening existing partnerships, especially with the European Union and its individual members, as well as countries such as Turkiye and Pakistan that both have cordial ties with Beijing.

And Putin still has plenty of incentives to offer to Trump.

There is a reported proposal to create infrastructure for the Arctic sea route that will shorten the delivery of goods from Asia to Europe by weeks.

Moscow also considered a joint project to sell Russian natural gas to Europe, develop oil and gas fields in Russia’s Far East, and supply rare earths that are crucial for US tech giants.

In a post-war environment, Putin may also propose Russia’s expertise in processing spent nuclear fuel from US power stations – and come up with nuclear security deals, including non-proliferation.

Non-proliferation “is the only field where Russia is ‘equal’ to the United States,” Tyshkevych said.

Getty Images

Golden crowns and grand orders

Reuters

BBC/Leehyun Choi

Since April 2023, more than 12 million people have been displaced, nearly 9 million inside Sudan and over 3 million across borders. The United Nations now identifies Sudan as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with 25 million people facing acute food insecurity and famine conditions already recorded in multiple areas.

These are not statistics; they are markers of systemic collapse. Mass graves, torched health facilities, and emptied towns tell the story. UN officials and independent human rights bodies have documented that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias committed genocide in Darfur, a finding echoed by the recent fall of El Fasher to RSF forces and the disturbing images that followed, underscoring the scale of brutality: civilians hunted in displacement camps, aid workers killed, humanitarian corridors severed. Each captured city tightens the noose on civilians and erodes any remaining space for lifesaving assistance.

The $4.2 billion required under the 2025 Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan remains largely unfunded. Agencies, including the WFP, UNICEF, UNHCR, and IOM, warn of an imminent operational collapse. Inaction is not neutral — it accelerates mass hunger, disease, and death. Sudan’s implosion will intensify displacement, fuel illicit economies, exacerbate extremist recruitment, and heighten volatility in food and fuel supplies. The outcome is predictable: expanded violence, deteriorating governance, and prolonged economic decline across West and Central Africa.

This crisis does not end at Sudan’s borders. It reverberates across a Sahel already destabilised by insurgency, climate shocks, and hollowed-out state institutions. Since 2020, a succession of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has entrenched military rule and normalised authoritarian recourse. Weak governance and porous borders transform humanitarian emergencies into regional security threats.

The international response must shift from caution to conviction:

• Close the funding gap immediately. Multiyear, flexible financing is essential. Underfunding today guarantees higher security and social costs tomorrow.

• Enforce accountability. Genocide determinations and credible atrocity reports demand criminal investigations, targeted sanctions, and civilian protection mechanisms. Impunity is a policy choice — and one that invites repetition.

• Reform and empower Africa’s institutions. The African Union must evolve from a consultative platform into a body capable of deterrence. Continent-wide resilience requires real incentives and penalties for unconstitutional rule, as well as rapid protection capacity. AU, ECOWAS, and the UN should align political mediation, enforcement tools, and governance support to reduce the appeal of coups masquerading as solutions.

The AU’s intervention is both urgent and crucial for the continent’s stability. Africa cannot afford perpetual crises while its people are uprooted and its natural wealth siphoned off. Sudan is a warning. The Sahel is the echo. Failure to act decisively will cement a trajectory of conflict, authoritarian drift, and economic paralysis. Accountability, protection, and reform are not aspirations; they are minimum requirements for continental stability.

Days after a Ukrainian strike on a Russian dam designed to impede Russian logistics, videos and photographs are emerging showing flooded dugouts and vehicles stuck in the mud in the northern Kharkiv region. Ukrainian military officials and a local Russian media outlet claim the attack on the Belgorod Reservoir Dam on the Siverskyi Donets River is working as intended, helping to slow down Russian advances near the embattled town of Vovchansk.

You can see a satellite view of the results of the attack in the following video.

“Enemy logistics are becoming significantly more complicated,” the Ukrainian 16th Army Corps stated on Telegram in reference to the results of water streaming out of the dam. “The leaves have also fallen. So the units that managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets found themselves practically cut off from the main forces.”

“We are waiting for reinforcements for the exchange fund,” the corps added, using a reference to prisoners of war.

A Russian outlet offered a similar take.

“Light military equipment sunk in mud on one of the roads in the Vovchansk direction,” the local Belgorod Pepel Telegram channel posited. “Water from the Belgorod reservoir has reached the positions of the Russian army and washed out the roads, greatly complicating logistics and the combat capability of the Russian Armed Forces in the Vovchansk direction.”

“Our dugout was flooded after the dam was blown up,” a Russian soldier is heard to complain on one of the videos.

Water from the Belgorod Reservoir reached Russian army positions and washed away roads, significantly complicating logistics and combat capabilities for Russian forces in the Volchansk direction. pic.twitter.com/dCQp6juea7

— Slava 🇺🇦 (@Heroiam_Slava) October 28, 2025

Ukraine’s Commander of Unmanned Systems Forces, Col. Robert Brovdi, said the dam was hit by drones on Saturday.

Meanwhile, the regional governor said it was attacked on Friday as well.

“As a result of the strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is damage to the dam of the Belgorod reservoir,” Vyacheslav Gladkov stated on Telegram on Saturday. “We understand that the enemy may try to strike again and destroy the dam. If this happens, there will be a threat of flooding of the river floodplain from the Kharkiv region side and several streets of our settlements, where about 1,000 residents live.”

Though the dam is located a little more than eight miles north of the border, the flood waters that resulted from the attack have swollen the Siverskyi Donets River, which bisects Vovchansk, located about four miles south of the border.

The bombed-out town has become a focal point of the fighting in northern Ukraine. It was liberated in September 2022 but a Russian counteroffensive managed to recapture a portion of the town in May 2024.

Both the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries say the fighting remains fierce in the area, with Moscow claiming to have inflicted severe damage during these battles.

Before the dam attack, the Russians had made gains in the area thanks to the summer’s heat, according to the Ukrainian 16th Army Corps.

“The enemy tried to fully take advantage of the window of opportunity – after the lack of precipitation and the hellish summer, the rivers Siverskyi Donets and Vovcha have dried up, which simplified logistics for the opponent,” the corps stated on Telegram. “Plus, they managed to accumulate reserves and there are still enough leaves on the trees – all this combined led to a sharp increase in activity in the Vovchansk direction.”

The Russians “managed to achieve local successes, but it came at the cost of heavy losses,” the corps claimed. “Some units almost completely lost combat readiness, for example, the 1st battalion of the 82nd Marine Regiment was almost wiped out, with only the command left in the unit, so it had to be withdrawn to the rear for replenishment.”

“As of today, the situation is no longer in favor of the Russians,” the 16th Corps suggested.

Still, Ukrainian forces are not yet able to take full advantage of any logistical impediments imposed on Russian forces by the dam bust, stated one noted Ukrainian journalist.

“Comrades located at various sections of the Vovchansk direction responded, saying that assault actions and drone operations have not decreased over these 2 days,” Sergey Bratchuk wrote on Telegram. “This is despite the weather conditions, which noticeably complicate the work of UAV crews.”

“Due to (so far) constant tension, they do not allow the so-called ‘window of opportunity’ to be used for improving their own logistics, personnel shifts at positions, and strengthening defensive lines,” he added.

The lack of Ukrainian progress may change as water continues to flow from the dam, Bratchuk suggested.

“Well, let’s see how they behave in a few days when all the main access routes are flooded, the crossings are flooded, and the fortifications are destroyed,” he explained. “Without provisions, ammo, fuel, generators, etc. – offensive capabilities will somewhat quiet down. Infantry are not demanding people; you can even drop them a package and they will hold out for a long time, but supplying pilot positions is a completely different matter.”

The Belgorod attack is the most recent, but certainly not the largest strike on a dam. In March 2023, Ukraine claimed that the Russians intentionally blew up the Nova Kakovka dam on the Dnipro River, intending to impede Ukrainian logistics. While the extent of that objective is unclear, the attack caused major flooding and created a massive ecological disaster in the region.

Just how much the attack on the Belgorod Reservoir dam will hurt Russia remains to be seen. However, the strike is the latest example of how both sides are using water to try and stop the other.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Prime Minister Andrew Holness has declared Jamaica a “disaster area” after Hurricane Melissa barrelled across the Caribbean island as one of the most powerful storms on record, leaving behind a trail of devastation.

The hurricane – which made landfall as a Category 5 storm on Tuesday – ripped off the roofs of homes, inundated the nation’s “bread basket”, and felled power lines and trees, leaving most of its 2.8 million people without electricity.

Melissa took hours to cross over Jamaica, a passage over land that diminished its winds, dropping it down to a Category 3 storm, before it ramped back up as it continued on Wednesday towards Cuba.

Holness said in a series of posts on X that the storm has “ravaged” his country and the disaster declaration gives his government “tools to continue managing” its response to the storm.

“It is clear that where the eye of the hurricane hit, there would be devastating impact,” he told the United States news channel CNN late on Tuesday. “Reports we have had so far include damage to hospitals, significant damage to residential property, housing and commercial property as well, and damage to our road infrastructure.”

Holness said he does not have any confirmed reports of deaths at the moment. “But with a Category 5 hurricane, … we are expecting some loss of life,” he added.

The prime minister said his government was mobilising quickly to start relief and recovery efforts by Wednesday morning.

Even before Melissa slammed into Jamaica, seven deaths – three in Jamaica, three in Haiti and one in the Dominican Republic – were caused by the hurricane.

Desmond McKenzie, Jamaica’s local government minister, told reporters on Tuesday evening that the storm had caused damage across almost every parish in the country and left most of the island without electricity.

He said the storm had put the parish of St Elizabeth, the country’s main agricultural region, “under water”.

“The damage to St Elizabeth is extensive, based on what we have seen,” the minister said, adding that “almost every parish is experiencing blocked roads, fallen trees and utility poles, and excess flooding in many communities.”

“Work is presently on the way to restore our service, to give priorities to the critical facilities, such as hospitals and water and pumping stations,” he added.

The storm caused “significant damage” to at least four hospitals, Health and Wellness Minister Christopher Tufton told the Jamaica Gleaner newspaper.

A roof was completely torn off a building at a section of the Savanna La Mar Public General Hospital due to the passage of Hurricane Melissa. The system made landfall earlier today near New Hope district in Westmoreland, Jamaica. #GLNRToday #TrackingMelissa pic.twitter.com/zBnm9bu4Oq

— Jamaica Gleaner (@JamaicaGleaner) October 28, 2025

‘Monstrous Melissa’

Robian Williams, a journalist with the Nationwide News Network radio broadcaster in Kingston, told Al Jazeera that the storm was the “worst we’ve ever experienced”.

“It’s truly heartbreaking, devastating,” she said from the capital.

“We’re calling Hurricane Melissa ‘Monstrous Melissa’ here in Jamaica because that’s how powerful she was. … The devastation is widespread, mostly being felt and still being felt in the western ends of the country at this point in time. So many homes, so many people have been displaced,” she said.

“We did prepare, but there wasn’t much that we could have done.”

Trout Hall Rd, Clarendon#TrackingMelissa #HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica @CVMTV pic.twitter.com/bTop93pOvp

— Giovanni R. Dennis (@GiovanniRDennis) October 28, 2025

In Kingston, Lisa Sangster, a 30-year-old communications specialist, said her home was devastated by the storm.

“My sister … explained that parts of our roof was blown off and other parts caved in and the entire house was flooded,” she told the AFP news agency. “Outside structures like our outdoor kitchen, dog kennel and farm animal pens were also gone, destroyed.”

Mathue Tapper, 31, told AFP that those in the capital were “lucky” but he feared for people in Jamaica’s more rural areas.

“My heart goes out to the folks living on the western end of the island,” he said.

Melissa restrengthens

The US National Hurricane Center warned on Tuesday night that Melissa was restrengthening as it approached eastern Cuba.

“Expected to make landfall there as an extremely dangerous major hurricane in the next few hours,” the centre warned at 11pm Cuba time on Tuesday (03:00 GMT on Wednesday).

Authorities in Cuba have evacuated more than 700,000 people, according to Granma, the official newspaper, and forecasters said the Category 4 storm would unleash catastrophic damage in Santiago de Cuba and nearby areas.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas as well as for the southeastern and central Bahamas. A hurricane watch was in effect for Bermuda.

The storm was expected to generate a storm surge of up to 3.6 metres (12ft) in the region and drop up to 51cm (20 inches) of rain in parts of eastern Cuba.

“There will be a lot of work to do. We know there will be a lot of damage,” President Miguel Diaz-Canel said in a televised address in which he assured that “no one is left behind and no resources are spared to protect the lives of the population”.

At the same time, he urged Cubans not to underestimate the power of Hurricane Melissa, “the strongest ever to hit national territory”.

Climate change

Although Jamaica and Cuba are used to hurricanes, climate change is making the storms more severe.

British-Jamaican climate change activist and author Mikaela Loach said in a video shared on social media that Melissa “gained energy from the extremely and unnaturally hot seas in the Caribbean”.

“These sea temperatures are not natural,” Loach said. “They’re extremely hot because of the gasses that have resulted from burning fossil fuels.”

“Countries like Jamaica, countries that are most vulnerable to climate disaster are also countries that have had their wealth and resources stripped away from them through colonial bondage,” Loach added.

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in September, Holness urged wealthy countries to increase climate financing to assist countries like Jamaica with adapting to the effects of a warming world.

“Climate change is not a distant threat or an academic consideration. It is a daily reality for small island developing states like Jamaica,” he said.

Jamaica is responsible for just 0.02 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming, according to data from the World Resources Institute.

But like other tropical islands, it is expected to continue to bear the brunt of worsening climate effects.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan is expected to win the election as the two main opposition parties have been barred from taking part.

Polls have opened in Tanzania for presidential and parliamentary elections being held without the leading opposition party, as the government has been violently cracking down on dissent ahead of the vote.

More than 37 million registered voters will cast their ballots from 7am local time (4:00 GMT) until 4pm (13:00 GMT). The election commission says it will announce the results within three days of election day.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan, 65, is expected to win after candidates from the two leading opposition parties were barred from standing.

The leader of Tanzania’s main opposition party, Chadema’s Tundu Lissu, is on trial for treason, charges he denies. The electoral commission disqualified Chadema in April after it refused to sign an electoral code of conduct.

The commission also disqualified Luhaga Mpina, the candidate for the second largest opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo, after an objection from the attorney general, leaving only candidates from minor parties taking on Hassan.

In addition to the presidential election, voters will choose members of the country’s 400-seat parliament and a president and politicians in the semiautonomous Zanzibar archipelago.

Hassan’s governing party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), whose predecessor party led the struggle for independence for mainland Tanzania in the 1950s, has dominated national politics since its founding in 1977.

Hassan, one of just two female heads of state in Africa, won plaudits after coming to power in 2021 for easing repression of political opponents and censorship that proliferated under her predecessor, John Magufuli, who died in office.

But in the last two years, rights campaigners and opposition candidates have accused the government of unexplained abductions of its critics.

She maintains her government is committed to respecting human rights and last year ordered an investigation into the reports of abductions. No official findings have been made public.

Stifling opposition

UN human rights experts have called on Hassan’s government to immediately stop the enforced disappearance of political opponents, human rights defenders and journalists “as a tool of repression in the electoral context”.

They said more than 200 cases of enforced disappearance had been recorded in Tanzania since 2019.

A recent Amnesty International report detailed a “wave of terror” including “enforced disappearance and torture … and extrajudicial killings of opposition figures and activists”.

Human Rights Watch said “the authorities have suppressed the political opposition and critics of the ruling party, stifled the media, and failed to ensure the electoral commission’s independence”.

US crisis-monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) said the ruling CCM was intent on maintaining its status as the “last hegemonic liberation party in southern Africa” and avoiding the recent electoral pressures faced by counterparts in South Africa, Namibia and Zimbabwe.

In September 2024, the body of Ali Mohamed Kibao, a member of the secretariat of the opposition Chadema party, was found after two armed men forced him off a bus heading from Dar-es-Salaam to the northeastern port city of Tanga.

There are fears that even members of CCM are being targeted. Humphrey Polepole, a former CCM spokesman and ambassador to Cuba, went missing from his home this month after resigning and criticising Hassan. His family found blood stains in his home.

The Tanganyika Law Society says it has confirmed 83 abductions since Hassan came to power, with another 20 reported in recent weeks.

Protests are rare in Tanzania, in part thanks to a relatively healthy economy, which grew by 5.5 percent last year, according to the World Bank, on the back of strong agriculture, tourism and mining sectors.

Hassan has promised big infrastructure projects and universal health insurance in a bid to win over voters.

Voters in Tanzania are heading to polling booths on Wednesday to vote for a new president, as well as members of parliament and councillors, in elections which are expected to continue the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) – or Party of Revolution’s – 64-year-long grip on power.

Despite a bevy of candidates in the lineup, incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan, analysts say, is virtually unchallenged and will almost certainly win, following what rights groups say has been a heavy crackdown on popular opposition members, activists and journalists.

Key challengers Tundu Lissu of the largest opposition party, Chadema, and Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, have been barred from standing, thus eliminating any real threat to Hassan. Other presidential candidates on the ballot lack political backing and are unlikely to make much impact on voters, analysts say.

The East African nation is replete with rolling savannas and wildlife, making it a hotspot for safari tourism. It is also home to Africa’s tallest mountain, Mount Kilimanjaro, as well as a host of important landmarks, like the Ngorongoro Crater and the Serengeti. Precious minerals, such as the unique tanzanite – a blue gemstone – and gold, as well as agricultural exports, contribute significantly to foreign earnings.

Central Dodoma is the country’s capital, while the economic hub is coastal Dar-es-Salaam. Swahili is the lingua franca, while different local groups speak several other languages.

Here’s what to expect at the polls:

What are people voting for and how will the elections be decided?

Voters are choosing a president, parliament members and local councillors for the 29 regions in mainland Tanzania. A president and parliament members will also be elected in the autonomous island of Zanzibar.

Winners are elected by plurality or simple majority vote – the candidate with the most votes wins.

Authorities declared that Wednesday would be a public holiday to allow people to vote, while early voting began in Zanzibar on Tuesday.

How many people are voting?

More than 37 million of the 60 million population are registered to vote. To vote, you must be a citizen aged 18 or over.

Voter turnout in the last general elections in 2020 was just 50.72 percent, however, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

Who is President Samia Suluhu Hassan and why is she regarded as a shoe-in?

Formerly the country’s vice president, Hassan, 65, automatically ascended to the position of president following the death of former President John Magufuli in March 2021, to serve out the remainder of his term.

Hassan is presently one of only two African female leaders, the other being Namibia’s Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah. She is the sixth president and the first female leader of her country. She was previously minister of trade for Zanzibar, where she is from.

This will be Hassan’s first attempt at the ballot, and the election was supposed to be a test of how Tanzanians view her leadership so far. However, analysts say the fact that her two strongest challengers have been barred from the polls means the president is running with virtually no competition.

After taking office in 2021, Hassan immediately began reversing controversial policies implemented by Magafuli, an isolationist leader who denied that COVID-19 existed and refused to issue policies regarding quarantines or vaccines.

Under Hassan, Tanzania joined the international COVAX facility, directed by institutions like the World Health Organization, to help distribute vaccines to developing countries, especially in Africa.

Hassan also struck a reconciliatory tone with opposition leaders by lifting a six-year ban on political rallies imposed by Magufuli.

She focused on completing large-scale Magafuli-era development projects and launched new ones, especially around railway infrastructure and rural electrification. The president’s supporters, therefore, praise her record in infrastructure development, improving access to education and improving overall stability of governance in the country.

However, while many hoped Tanzania would become more democratic under her leadership, Hassan’s style of governance has become increasingly authoritarian, analysts say, and now more closely resembles that of her predecessor.

In a report ahead of the elections, Amnesty International found that Hassan’s government has intensified “repressive practices” and has targeted opposition leaders, civil society activists and groups, journalists and other dissenting voices with forced disappearances, arrests, harassment and even torture.

Tanzania’s government has consistently denied all accusations of human rights violations.

Hassan’s campaign rallies have been highly visible across the country – but hers has been nearly the only major national campaign, with smaller parties sticking to their particular regions.

Some opposition parties are now calling for a boycott of the elections altogether. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Chadema party member John Kitoka, who is currently in hiding to avoid arrest, said the elections are “completely a sham”.

How are opposition parties being dealt with?

Last week, Hassan urged Tanzanians to ignore calls to boycott the vote and warned against protests.

“The only demonstrations that will exist are those of people going to the polling stations to vote. There will be no other demonstrations. There will be no security threat,” she said.

Tanzania’s police have also warned against creating or distributing “inciting” content on social media, threatening that those caught will face prosecution. The country routinely restricts access to social media on specific occasions, such as during protests. Only select traditional media have been approved to provide coverage of the elections.

In the autonomous Zanzibar, which will also elect a president and parliament members, there is more of an atmosphere of competitive elections, observers say. Incumbent leader Hussein Mwinyi of the ruling CCM is facing off against the ACT-Wazalendo candidate Othman Masoud, who has been serving as his vice president in a coalition government.

Why have key opposition candidates been barred from standing?

Tundu Lissu, 57, is the charismatic and widely popular opposition Chadema candidate who lived in exile in Belgium for several years during the Magufuli era. His party, which calls for free elections, reduction of presidential powers, and promotion of human rights, has been barred from the vote for failing to meet a submission deadline, and Lissu is currently in custody for alleged “treasonous” remarks he made ahead of the elections.

The move followed Lissu’s comments during a Chadema rally in the southern town of Mbinga on April 3, during which he urged his supporters to boycott the elections if Hassan’s government did not institute electoral reforms before the vote. Lissu was calling on the government to change the makeup of the Independent National Election Commission, arguing that the agency should not include people appointed directly by Hassan.

Government officials claimed his statements were “inciting” and arrested Lissu on April 9.

Three days later, the electoral commission disqualified Chadema from this election – and all others until 2030 – on the grounds that the party had failed to sign a mandatory Electoral Code of Conduct due on April 12.

Local media reported that two Chadema party members attending a rally in support of Lissu on April 24 were also arrested by the Tanzanian police.

Last week, Chadema deputy chairperson John Heche, deputy chairperson of Chadema, was detained while attempting to attend Lissu’s trial at the Dar-es-Salaam High Court. He has not been seen since.

Lissu has been detained often. He survived an assassination attempt in 2017 after he was shot 16 times.

In August, the elections commission also barred opposition candidate Luhaga Mpina, 50, of the ACT-Wazalendo, the second-largest opposition party. Mpina, a parliament member who broke away from the ruling CCM in August to join ACT-Wazalendo – also known as the Alliance for Change and Transparency – was barred for allegedly failing to follow the rules for nominations during the presidential primaries.

Hassan will compete with 16 other candidates –  none of whom are from major national parties or have an established political presence.

What are the key issues for this election?

Shrinking democratic freedoms

Observers say Tanzania’s democracy, already fragile during the presidency of Magafuli, is at risk as a result of the Hassan government’s tightening of political freedoms and crackdowns on the media.

Amnesty International notes that electoral rights violations were apparent in 2020 under Magufuli, but have worsened ahead of this week’s polls.

Human Rights Watch and the United Nations human rights agency (UNHCR) have similarly documented reports of rights violations under Hassan’s government, noting in particular the disappearance of two regional activists, Boniface Mwangi from Kenya and Agather Atuhaire from Uganda, who travelled to witness Lissu’s trial but were detained in Dar-es-Salaam on May 19, 2025.

Mwangi was reportedly tortured and dumped in a coastal Kenyan town, while Atuhaire reported being sexually assaulted before also being abandoned at the border with Uganda.

“More than 200 cases of enforced disappearance have been recorded in Tanzania since 2019,” the UNHCR noted.

Business and economy

Tanzania’s economic growth has been stable with inflation staying below the Central Bank’s 5 percent target in recent years, according to the World Bank.

Unlike its neighbour, Kenya, the lower-middle-income country has avoided debt distress, with GDP boosted by high demand for its gold, tourism and agricultural commodities like cashew nuts, coffee and cotton. However, the World Bank noted that 49 percent of the population lives below the international poverty line.

While growth has attracted foreign investment, government policies have negatively impacted the business landscape: In July, Hassan’s government introduced new restrictions banning foreigners from owning and operating businesses in 15 sectors, including mobile money transfers, tour guiding, small-scale mining and on-farm crop buying.

Officials argued that too many foreigners were engaging in informal businesses that ought to benefit Tanzanians. The move played to recent protests against the rising influx of Chinese products and businesses in Tanzanian markets, analysts say. Foreigners are also banned from owning beauty salons, souvenir shops and radio and TV stations.

The move proved controversial in the regional East African Community bloc, particularly in neighbouring Kenya, whose citizens make up a significant population of business owners in the country, having taken advantage of the free-movement policy within the bloc.

Conservation challenges

While abundant wildlife and natural resources have boosted the economy via tourism, Tanzania faces major challenges in managing human-wildlife conflict.

Clashes between humans, particularly in rural areas, and wild animals are becoming more common due to population growth and climate change, which is pushing animals closer to human settlements in search of food and water.

Human-elephant flare-ups are most common. Between 2012 and 2019, more than 1,000 human-wildlife mortality cases were reported nationwide, according to data from Queen’s University, Canada.

While the government provides financial and material compensation to the families of those affected by human-wildlife conflict incidents, families often complain of receiving funds late.

Meanwhile, there is tension between the government and indigenous groups such as the Maasai, who are resisting being evicted to make more room for conservation space to be used for tourism.

Last year, crackdowns on Maasai protesters and resulting outrage from groups led to the World Bank suspending a $150m conservation grant, and the European Union cancelling Tanzania’s eligibility for a separate $20m grant.

A second prototype of China’s very heavy J-36 ‘fighter’ has emerged with major refinements. These alterations, compared to the first J-36 airframe, point to the program very much being iterative in its process. They also add to the evidence of what we already posited, that the first J-36 aircraft was not a highly mature, near-production-representative design, as some had repeatedly claimed. You can read our very in-depth initial analysis on the J-36 here.

Images of this second example of the J-36 emerged today on social media, showing the aircraft flying through Chinese skies from multiple angles. The images were likely taken near Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s major plant in its namesake city, where initial flight testing of the first aircraft publicly emerged on December 26, 2024.

The new images show the same overall modified delta design we have become accustomed to, but with some major features changed in readily visible areas.

Exhaust

The first J-36 had exhausts that were recessed from the trailing edge atop the aircraft, an arrangement loosely similar to what was found on the Northrop YF-23. This is a noted low-observable (stealth) design cue and made sense for a big three-engined jet that optimized stealth, speed, and efficiency over raw maneuverability. Now we are seeing what appears to be three angular exhaust nozzles that look very similar to the two-dimensional thrust vectoring exhaust nozzles on the Lockheed F-22 Raptor — a design trait and capability that is also present on China’s new J-XDS heavy tailless stealth fighter.

The exhaust changes have major implications. First off, if indeed this is two-dimensional (2-D) thrust vectoring, why is it needed for what appears to be a very heavy multi-role tactical jet that is less fighter than regional bomber? It could be that a higher degree of fighter-like performance is desired, pointing to that mission set being prioritized. It could also be to solve certain stability and maneuverability issues during certain phases of flight. Tailless designs are inherently extremely unstable. Thrust vectoring can help with this and maximize potential performance throughout the flight envelope, including at very high altitudes.

It’s also possible that just a lower thrust vectoring ‘flap’ is being employed here and not a full 2-D exhaust system. This seems less likely, but it is possible, and could provide some degree of extra control without such a heavy redesign of the upper empennage.

The new, more heavily serrated design likely has an impact on the jet’s low-observable qualities, at least from the rear aspect. In order to pull off full 2-D thrust vectoring, the aircraft’s rear upper rear fuselage design would also have to be significantly remodeled, with the engine nacelles being pushed back to the trailing edge. The full extent of the changes to the upper end of the J-36 are unclear, but this was not a case of just slapping a thrust vectoring nozzle on there, as the original exhausts were deeply recessed forward of the trailing edge. Again, it looks like Chengdu designers traded some signature control for performance here.

Weight is also an issue, as thrust vectoring nozzles add complexity and mass, but for such a larger and heavy jet as it is, the impact is likely minimal.

Inlets

The original J-36 aircraft’s F-22-like caret lower inlets have been significantly revised. In our original analysis, we discussed how it was interesting that the dorsal intake uses divertless supersonic intake (DSI), which China is now accustomed to using on its aircraft, but the two lower intakes were a trapezoidal caret-like design. This has changed in the new iteration of the jet, with what appear to be DSI intakes taking the place of the original ones. The lower lips of these intakes also sweep forward, which is another trademark for this kind of design, and is especially pronounced on low-observable ones.

Landing Gear

The J-36’s tandem two-wheeled main landing gear — which provided a stark indication of how heavy the aircraft was — has been totally redesigned, with a twin-wheel side-by-side truck arrangement taking its place. While this may necessitate a deeper main gear well for stowage when retracted, it requires less area and smaller main gear doors, among other advantages. This is a relatively dramatic and surprising refinement, to say the least.

Other Takeaways

Another small tweak appears to be a less elaborate air data probe jutting out from the second J-36’s nose, although this could be an artifact of the high compression of the images. There are certain to be other outward tweaks to the J-36’s original design that we cannot see in these limited-resolution images taken in poor lighting. We can expect some refinements in shaping, especially where the intakes blend with the fuselage and other areas, although we cannot confirm this at this time. This is all in addition to what’s on the top of the new aircraft, which we haven’t seen at all at the time of writing.

Overall, these major changes a year after we first saw the design, point to an aircraft still very much in the stages of flight test demonstration/development and possibly to an accelerated iterative design scheme used to rush the aircraft into a production-like state. This new aircraft could also be an alternative configuration, not an evolutionary one, but that seems less likely at this time.

As we have repeatedly stated, the progress China is making when it comes to advanced combat aircraft is absolutely stunning. And yes, these aircraft are far more than their outward appearance and would need to rely on superior sensor and communications technology, low-observable material science, total force integration, and of course, operator and integrated training, in order to win the day. But taken at face value, China’s rapid progress with so many diverse platforms in such a short time is remarkable.

That being said, there are some that declare everything they see as late in development and near ready for production, regardless of the evidence. This is usually framed against an inflammatory U.S.-China competition narrative. Seeing this new iteration of the J-36 should underline just how fast China is working to refine the design, and it’s likely this was well in the works when the first example took flight. Still, claims that the J-36 was very far along in its development and even production representative when it first flew should now be put to rest.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Authors: Marin Ekstrom and Wilder Alejandro Sánchez

Uzbekistan has recently commenced construction of a new airport in Tashkent, valued at $2.5 billion, as a symbol of the country’s reinvention. The project, slated to begin operations in 2029, aims to serve as Central Asia’s key aviation hub by supporting more than 40 take-offs and landings per hour and serving 20 million passengers annually. Economists predict that increased air traffic at the airport could generate $27 billion in annual revenue and create thousands of new jobs.

To achieve this ambitious goal, Tokyo and Seoul will be critical partners: Japan’s Sojitz Corporation, which has extensive experience in the aviation sector, has agreed to invest millions of dollars and share technical expertise. As for South Korea, the Incheon International Airport Corporation (IIAC) signed a $24.5 million consulting contract to provide operational and service support for the development of the new Tashkent airport.

Investment Incoming

While the Tashkent airport is one of the most recent and buzzworthy examples of Uzbek cooperation with Japan and South Korea, it is hardly the only area of engagement. With a projected 6.2% economic growth rate for 2025, Uzbekistan is on track to become one of the five fast-growing economies in Europe and Central Asia, making it a highly attractive market for trade and investment. In July 2025, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) announced a three-year initiative to fund and implement $3.7 billion in projects across the energy, petrochemical, textile, and infrastructure sectors. Sojitz also agreed to expand its cooperation in the oil and gas sectors, including the Syrdarya II power generation facility. Mining is another lucrative sector, with the Japanese corporation Itochu investing heavily in Uzbek uranium mining operations.

Similarly, South Korea is playing a vital role in financing Uzbekistan’s infrastructure projects, including supplying high-speed trains for its electrified transport networks and providing over $12 million to promote sustainable resource extraction methods and supply equipment and training for Uzbek engineers. Another notable project is a South Korean-funded $150 million medical center in Tashkent.

High-Level Diplomacy

The two East Asian governments have also increased intergovernmental engagement with Uzbekistan in recent years. Visits and engagement between policymakers in Tashkent and Tokyo are relatively common: this year alone, then-Minister of Foreign Affairs Takeshi Iwaya visited Tashkent in June, while then-Minister of Justice Keisuke Suzuki visited in May. While the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has yet to fully formulate her foreign policy strategy, it is hoped that she will continue Tokyo’s engagement with Uzbekistan.

Then-South Korean President Yun Suk Yeol visited Tashkent in June 2024, while President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and current President Lee Jae Myung spoke by phone in July. They pledged to strengthen the “special strategic partnership” and expand “multifaceted cooperation,” noting that Korean companies have invested over US$8 billion in the Uzbek economy.

Japan and South Korea have proven to be invaluable official development assistance (ODA) providers. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Tokyo’s primary international aid organ, along with other Japanese NGOs, have worked extensively on infrastructure and human capital development in Uzbekistan. While Japanese ODA to Central Asia is of lower priority compared to Southeast Asia, Tokyo has consistently remained a top donor to Uzbekistan and the rest of the region. South Korea- which famously transformed from a major aid recipient to a prominent aid donor – has currently designated Uzbekistan as a “priority partner country” in terms of its ODA allocation. South Korean development assistance increased tenfold from 2006 and 2019, concentrating on social infrastructure and public service projects. Given the current instability of the global humanitarian and international development sector, it is difficult to say with certainty which current and future projects involving Japan, South Korea, and Uzbekistan will be pursued.  Nevertheless, ODA from Japan and South Korea has clearly had, and will continue to have, a positive lasting impact in Uzbekistan. 

The Other Pillar: People-To-People Interactions

People-to-people relations, facilitated through tourism and educational opportunities, can serve as additional pillars to strengthen interstate relations. Tourism among the three countries is surging, as Uzbekistan has noted increased tourist traffic from Japan and South Korea and vice versa. Initiatives like “Cool Japan” and “the Korean Wave” have transformed the two East Asian nations into soft power titans, while Uzbekistan is emphasizing strategies such as its Silk Road mystique to boost its soft power and tourism potential. If construction of the new airport stays on track, by the end of the decade, Japanese and South Korean tourists will arrive at a state-of-the-art facility their governments helped build.

Studying abroad is a significant phenomenon in Uzbekistan, ranking fifth globally in 2021 in terms of the number of students studying abroad. Japan offers numerous scholarships, language programs, and exchange programs designed for Uzbek students to study there. South Korea is an even more popular destination, with an estimated 5,000 Uzbek students studying in Korean universities. While comparatively fewer Japanese and South Korean students study in Uzbekistan, exchanges among the three countries can only strengthen their long-term ties.

Finally, Uzbekistan contributes to South Korea’s academic community and workforce: nearly 100,000 Uzbek citizens were living in South Korea as of June 2025, comprising the fifth largest foreign-born population in the country.

The Big Picture

Japan and South Korea have also robustly engaged with Uzbekistan through regional forums. Japan spearheaded the “C5+1” framework, which organizes the five Central Asian republics into a regional unit interacting with an extra-regional actor, with its 2004 “Central Asia + Japan” dialogue. Global Powers like China, Russia, the United States, and the European Union adopted this model for their own engagements with the Central Asian states. The Japan-centered C5+1 has continued, with the most recent summit being held in Astana in 2025. South Korea has helped organize a series of Central Asia-Republic of Korea Cooperation Forums and was set to host the first Central Asia-Korea summit in Seoul in 2025. The arrest of deposed President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier this year, however, has delayed those plans. South Korea announced a “K-Silk Road” initiative in June 2024, an ambitious project encompassing such areas as natural resource extraction, development aid, and cultural exchanges- though the arrest of Yoon has also halted progress on these objectives.

As a corollary to this analysis, it is worth noting two recent developments involving Central Asian engagement with  the Global Powers of China and the US, which often overshadow Japan and South Korea’s efforts in the region. A Chinese company reportedly plans to invest as much as US$500 million in Uzbekistan’s Andijan region to construct a hydroelectric power plant and modernize existing energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, US Ambassador-at-Large for South and Central Asian Affairs Sergio Gor and Deputy Secretary Christopher Landau visited Tashkent in late October as part of a regional tour. 2025 marks the 10th anniversary of the US-Central Asia C5+1 format, and US members of Congress have requested the Trump administration to organize a presidential summit to celebrate this achievement.

The point here is that the Global Powers will continue to engage Tashkent, and matching dollar-for-dollar  investment to compete with them is unrealistic. That being said, Tokyo and Seoul are not necessarily positioning themselves to act like Global Powers in the region. Japanese engagement with Uzbekistan and Central Asia has been characterized by a flexible, piecemeal approach that targets key issues while forgoing rigid diplomatic protocol like geopolitical alliances or treaty obligations. In addition, Japan values “quality over quantity” regarding its projects: while it may not be as flashy or large-scale compared to its Global Power counterparts, Japan aims for long-term sustainability and success. South Korea, for its part, appears to be adopting a similar mode of engagement with Uzbekistan and Central Asia. Being involved in strategic projects, like a significant involvement in Tashkent’s new airport, will help Tokyo and Seoul continue to have a high-profile and visible presence in Uzbekistan’s development projects.

Conclusions

Since President Mirziyoyev took power in 2016, he has sought to create a “New Uzbekistan” characterized by economic dynamism and global integration. Tashkent’s relations with Global Powers like China, Russia, the United States, and the European Union have been extensively analyzed. However, two other countries that have developed their own special and successful partnerships with Uzbekistan are Japan and South Korea.

As the New Uzbekistan gains momentum, Tashkent must rely on international partnerships to sustain development and enhance its international prestige. Given the country’s history of subjugation under empires and global powers, Uzbekistan’s involvement with nations like Japan and South Korea offers an intriguing alternative: robust engagement with less risk of domination. In turn, these East Asian nations can expand their regional influence to offset rival powers, most notably China, and gain access to new markets and resources. The collaboration between these three countries thus offers mutual benefits for all parties.

*Wilder Alejandro Sánchez is president of Second Floor Strategies, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C. He covers geopolitical, defense, and trade issues in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Western Hemisphere. He has co-authored a report on water security issues in Central Asia, published by the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and given presentations on environmental issues that affect the region.

Pyongyang says the tests in the Yellow Sea were aimed at impressing its abilities upon its ‘enemies’.

North Korea has test-fired several sea-to-surface cruise missiles into its western waters, according to state media, hours before United States President Donald Trump begins a visit to South Korea.

The official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said on Wednesday that the missiles, carried out in the Yellow Sea on Tuesday, flew for more than two hours before accurately striking targets.

Top military official Pak Jong Chon oversaw the test and said “important successes” were being achieved in developing North Korea’s “nuclear forces” as a war deterrent, according to KCNA.

The test was aimed at assessing “the reliability of different strategic offensive means and impress their abilities upon the enemies”, Pak said.

“It is our responsible mission and duty to ceaselessly toughen the nuclear combat posture,” he added.

South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff said on Wednesday that the military had detected the North Korean launch preparations and that the cruise missiles were fired in the country’s northwestern waters at about 3pm (06:00 GMT) on Tuesday.

The joint chiefs said South Korea and the US were analysing the weapons and maintaining a combined defence readiness capable of a “dominant response” against any North Korean provocation.

North Korea’s latest launches followed short-range ballistic missile tests last week that it said involved a new hypersonic system designed to strengthen its nuclear war deterrent.

The latest test came hours before an expected summit between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in the city of Gyeongju, where South Korea is hosting this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings.

Trump has expressed interest in meeting with Kim during his stay in South Korea, where he is also scheduled to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

However, South Korean officials have said that a Trump-Kim meeting is unlikely.

Kim has said he still personally holds “fond memories” of Trump, but has also said he would only be open to talks if Washington stops insisting his country give up its nuclear weapons programme.

North Korea has shunned any form of talks with Washington and Seoul since Kim’s high-stakes nuclear diplomacy with Trump fell apart in 2019, during the US president’s first term.

Before flying to South Korea, Trump was in Tokyo, where he met with families of Japanese abducted by North Korea on Tuesday, telling them that “the US is with them all the way” as they asked for help to find their loved ones.

After years of denial, North Korea admitted in 2002 that it had sent agents to kidnap 13 Japanese people decades ago, who were used to train spies in Japanese language and customs.

Japan says that 17 of its citizens were abducted, five of whom were repatriated. North Korea has said that eight are dead as of 2019, and another four never entered the country.

Islamabad, Pakistan – After three days, talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul, aimed at ending a tense and violent standoff between the South Asian neighbours, appeared to have hit a wall in Istanbul on Tuesday.

Mediated by Qatar and Türkiye, the negotiations followed an initial round of dialogue in Doha, which produced a temporary ceasefire on October 19 after a week of fighting that left dozens dead on both sides.

But even though officials and experts said that “last-ditch” efforts were expected to continue to try to pull the two countries back from a full-fledged conflict, the prospects of new hostilities between them loom large after their inability, so far, to build on the Doha truce, analysts say.

Pakistani security officials said that on Monday, talks went on for nearly 18 hours. But they accused the Afghan delegation of changing its position on Islamabad’s central demand – that Kabul crack down on the Pakistan Taliban armed group, known by the acronym TTP. One official, speaking to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the dialogue, alleged that the “instructions received from Kabul” for the Afghan team were complicating negotiations.

Kabul, however, blamed the Pakistani delegation for a “lack of coordination,” claiming the Pakistani side was “not presenting clear arguments” and kept “leaving the negotiating table”, Afghan media reported.

The Afghan team is being led by the deputy minister for administrative affairs at the Ministry of Interior, Haji Najib, while Pakistan has not publicly disclosed its representatives.

Recent cross-border attacks between the militaries of the two countries have killed multiple people, troops and civilians, and injured many more in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

United States President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly sought credit for resolving global conflicts, also waded in, saying he would “solve the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis very quickly”, while speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) summit in Malaysia earlier in the week.

Yet, any long-term settlement appears difficult due to the two nations’ “profound mutual distrust and conflicting priorities”, said Baqir Sajjad Syed, a former Pakistan fellow at the Wilson Center and a journalist who covers national security.

Syed added that their historical grievances and Pakistan’s past interventions in Afghanistan make concessions politically risky for the Afghan Taliban.

“In my view, the core issue is ideological alignment. The Afghan Taliban’s dependence on TTP for dealing with internal security problems [inside Afghanistan] makes it difficult for them to dissociate from the group, despite Pakistani concerns,” he told Al Jazeera.

A fraught friendship

Historically, Pakistan was long perceived as the primary patron of the Afghan Taliban. Many in Pakistan publicly welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 after the withdrawal of US forces.

But relations have sharply deteriorated since, largely over the TTP, an armed group that emerged in 2007 during the US-led so-called “war on terror”, and which has waged a long campaign against Islamabad.

The TTP seeks the release of its members imprisoned in Pakistan and opposes the merger of Pakistan’s former tribal areas into its Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Although independent from the Afghan Taliban, the two groups are ideologically aligned.

Islamabad accuses Kabul of providing sanctuary not only to the TTP but to other groups, including the Balochistan Liberation Army and the ISIL (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), charges Kabul denies.

The Afghan Taliban have insisted that the TTP is a Pakistani problem, repeatedly arguing that insecurity in Pakistan is a domestic matter. And the Taliban have themselves long viewed the ISKP as enemies.

Mullah Yaqoob, Afghanistan’s defence minister who signed the ceasefire in Doha with his Pakistani counterpart, Khawaja Asif, last week, said in an interview on October 19 that states sometimes used the label “terrorism” for political ends.

“There is no universal or clear definition of terrorism,” he said, adding that any government can brand its adversaries as “terrorists” for its own agenda.

Meanwhile, regional powers including Iran, Russia, China, and several Central Asian states have also urged the Taliban to eliminate the TTP and other armed groups allegedly operating from Afghanistan.

That appeal was renewed in Moscow in early October, in consultations also attended by Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs Amir Khan Muttaqi.

Rising toll, rising tensions

In recent days, several attacks have killed more than two dozen Pakistani soldiers, including officers.

The year 2024 was among Pakistan’s deadliest in nearly a decade, with more than 2,500 casualties recorded, and 2025 is on track to surpass that, analysts say.

Both civilians and security personnel have been targeted, with most attacks concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. TTP operations have increased sharply in both frequency and intensity.

“Our data show that the TTP engaged in at least 600 attacks against, or clashes with, security forces in the past year alone. Its activity in 2025 so far already exceeds that seen in all of 2024,” a recent Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) report said.

Ihsanullah Tipu Mehsud, an Islamabad-based security analyst, says that Pakistani negotiators must recognise that ties between the Taliban and the TTP are rooted in ideology, making it hard for Afghanistan’s government to give up on the anti-Pakistan armed group.

Journalist Sami Yousafzai, a longtime observer of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, agreed, saying that the prospects of a détente now look increasingly remote.

Both Mehsud and Yousafzai pointed to the Taliban’s history of sticking by allies even in the face of international pressure, and even military assault.

“We have seen this same attitude from the Afghan Taliban in 2001, when, after the 9/11 attacks, they continued to remain steadfastly with Al al-Qaeda,” Mehsud said.

According to Yousafzai, “the Afghan Taliban are war veterans, and they can withstand military pressure”.

Failed diplomacy?

In recent months, both sides have pursued diplomacy, nudged also by China, which has mediated talks between them, in addition to Qatar and Turkiye.

Yet, analysts say Islamabad might soon conclude that it has few nonmilitary options to address its concerns.

Syed pointed to Pakistani Defence Minister Asif’s recent threat of an “open war” and said that these comments could presage targeted air strikes or cross-border operations against alleged TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan.

“That said, mediators, particularly Qatar and Turkiye, are expected to make a last-ditch push to revive dialogue or shift it to another venue. There is also a small possibility of other countries joining in, especially after President Trump’s latest signal of readiness to step in and de-escalate the crisis,” he said.

Syed said that economic incentives, including aid, in exchange for compliance with ceasefire provisions could be one way to get the neighbours to avoid a full-fledged military conflict.

This is a tool Trump has used in recent months in other wars, including in getting Thailand and Cambodia to stop fighting after border clashes. The US president oversaw the signing of a peace deal between the Southeast Asian nations in Kuala Lumpur last weekend.

Unintended consequences

While Pakistan has far superior military capabilities, the Taliban has advantages, too, say analysts, cautioning against overconfidence on the part of Islamabad.

Yousafzai argued that the crisis with Pakistan had helped bolster domestic support for the Taliban, and military action against it could further elevate sympathy for the group.

“The response by the Afghan Taliban of attacking the Pakistani military on [the] border was seen as a forceful response, increasing their popularity. And even if Pakistan continues to bomb, it could end up killing innocent civilians, leading to more resentment and anti-Pakistani sentiment in [the] public and among [the] Afghan Taliban,” he said.

This dynamic, according to Yousafzai, should be worrying for Islamabad, particularly if the Taliban’s supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhunzada, steps in.

“If Akhunzada issues an edict, declaring Jihad against Pakistan, many young Afghans could potentially join the ranks of [the] Taliban,” Yousafzai warned. “Even if it will mean a bigger loss for Afghans, the situation will not be good for Pakistan.”

The only beneficiary, he said, would be the TTP, which will feel even more emboldened “to launch attacks against the Pakistani military”.

The United States has revoked the visa of Nigerian author and playwright Wole Soyinka, who became the first African writer to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1986.

Speaking at Kongi’s Harvest Gallery in Lagos on Tuesday, Soyinka read aloud from a notice sent on October 23 from the local US consulate, asking him to arrive with his passport so that his visa could be nullified.

The author called it, with characteristic humour, a “rather curious love letter” to receive.

“We request you bring your visa to the US Consulate General Lagos for physical cancellation. To schedule an appointment, please email — et cetera, et cetera — in advance of the appointment,” Soyinka recited, skimming the letter.

Closing his laptop, the author joked with the audience that he did not have time to fulfil its request.

“I like people who have a sense of humour, and this is one of the most humorous sentences or requests I’ve had in all my life,” Soyinka said.

“Would any of you like to volunteer in my place? Take the passport for me? I’m a little bit busy and rushed.”

Soyinka’s visa was issued last year, under US President Joe Biden. But in the intervening time, a new president has taken office: Donald Trump.

Since beginning his second term in January, Trump has overseen a crackdown on immigration, and his administration has removed visas and green cards from individuals whom it sees as out of step with the Republican president’s policies.

At Tuesday’s event, Soyinka struck a bemused tone, though he indicated the visa revocation would prevent him from visiting the US for literary and cultural events.

“I want to assure the consulate, the Americans here, that I am very content with the revocation of my visa,” Soyinka said.

He also quipped about his past experiences writing about the Ugandan military leader Idi Amin. “Maybe it’s about time also to write a play about Donald Trump,” he said.

Nobel Prize winners in the crosshairs

Soyinka is a towering figure in African literature, with a career that spans genres, from journalism to poetry to translation.

He is the author of several novels, including Season of Anomy and Chronicles from the Land of the Happiest People on Earth, as well as numerous short stories.

The 91-year-old author has also championed the fight against censorship. “Books and all forms of writing are terror to those who wish to suppress the truth,” he wrote.

He has lectured on the subject in New York City for PEN America, a free speech nonprofit. As recently as 2021, he returned to the US to present scholar and former colleague Henry Louis Gates Jr with the nonprofit’s Literary Service Award.

But Soyinka is not the first Nobel winner to see his US visa stripped away in the wake of Trump’s return to office, despite the US president’s own ambitions of earning the international prize.

Oscar Arias, a former president of Costa Rica and the winner of the 1987 Nobel Peace Prize, also found his visa cancelled in April.

Arias was previously honoured by the Nobel Committee for his efforts to end armed conflicts in Central American countries like Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala.

While the letter Arias received from the US government gave no reason for his visa’s cancellation, the former president told NPR’s Morning Edition radio show that officials indicated it was because of his ties to China.

“During my second administration from 2006 to 2010, I established diplomatic relations with China, and that’s because it has the second-largest economy in the world,” Arias explained.

But, Arias added, he could not rule out the possibility that there were other reasons for his visa’s removal.

“I have to imagine that my criticism of President Trump might have played a role,” Arias told NPR. “The president has a personality that is not open to criticism or disagreements.”

Soyinka likewise has a reputation for being outspoken, both about domestic politics in his native Nigeria and international affairs.

He has, for example, denounced Trump on multiple occasions, including for the “brutal, cruel and often unbelievable treatment being meted out to strangers, immigrants”.

In 2017, he confirmed to the magazine The Atlantic that he had destroyed his US green card — his permanent residency permit — to protest Trump’s first election in 2016.

“As long as Trump is in charge, if I absolutely have to visit the United States, I prefer to go in the queue for a regular visa with others,” he told the magazine.

The point was, he explained, to show that he was “no longer part of the society, not even as a resident”.

In Tuesday’s remarks, Soyinka reaffirmed that he no longer had his green card. “Unfortunately, when I was looking at my green card, it fell between the fingers of a pair of scissors, and it got cut into a couple of pieces,” he said, flashing his tongue-in-cheek humour.

He also emphasised he continues to have close friends in the US, and that the local consulate staff has consistently treated him courteously.

His work had long caused him to face persecution in Nigeria — though, famously, during a stint in solitary confinement, he continued to write using toilet paper — and eventually, in the 1990s, he sought refuge in the US.

During his time in North America, he took up teaching posts at prestigious universities like Harvard, Yale and Emory.

Targeting ‘hostile attitudes’

The Trump administration, however, has pledged to revoke visas from individuals it deems to be a threat to its national security and foreign policy interests.

In June, Trump issued a proclamation calling on his government tighten immigration procedures, in an effort to ensure that visa-holders “do not bear hostile attitudes toward its citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles”.

What qualifies as a “hostile attitude” towards US culture is unclear. Human rights advocates have noted that such broad language could be used as a smokescreen to crack down on dissent.

Free speech, after all, is protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution and is considered a foundational principle in the country, protecting individual expression from government shackles.

After Arias was stripped of his visa, the Economists for Peace and Security, a United Nations-accredited nonprofit, was among those to express outrage.

“This action, taken without explanation, raises serious concerns about the treatment of a globally respected elder statesman who has dedicated his life to peace, democracy, and diplomacy,” the nonprofit wrote in its statement.

“Disagreements on foreign policy or political perspective should not lead to punitive measures against individuals who have made significant contributions to international peace and stability.”

International students, commenters on social media, and acting government officials have also faced backlash for expressing their opinions and having unfavourable foreign ties.

Earlier this month, Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino voiced concern that members of his government had seen their visas cancelled over their diplomatic ties to China.

And in September, while visiting New York City, Colombian President Gustavo Petro saw his visa yanked within hours of giving a critical speech to the United Nations and participating in a protest against Israel’s war in Gaza.

The US Department of State subsequently called Petro’s actions “reckless and incendiary”.

Separately, the State Department announced on October 14 that six foreign nationals would see their visas annulled for criticising the assassinated conservative activist Charlie Kirk, a close associate of Trump.

Soyinka questioned Trump’s stated motives for cancelling so many visas at Tuesday’s literary event in Lagos, asking if they really made a difference for US national security.

“Governments have a way of papering things for their own survival,” he said.

“I want people to understand that the revocation of one visa, 10 visas, a thousand visas will not affect the national interests of any astute leader.”