TODAY

United States President Donald Trump said early on Sunday that an American soldier who went missing in Iran after the downing of his F-15E jet has been rescued following what observers called a dramatic firefight between Iranian and US rescue forces.

The US and Iran were racing to find the airman for about two days, with Tehran calling on the public to hand over the soldier to the authorities in what appeared to be attempts to capture an American prisoner of war as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 37th day.

That scenario would have delivered a significant win to Tehran amid the ongoing pummelling of its territory, and for Washington, a stunning blow, analysts say. It could have been the moment that parts of Trump’s support base, which has so far supported the war, started to rethink their stance, they say.

“It was a major test for the American military because they really don’t want to leave any of their servicemen behind enemy lines,” Amin Saikal, a professor of Middle East and Central Asian studies at the Australian National University, told Al Jazeera.

But this rescue “also really frees up President Trump to pursue whatever strategy he has in mind”, Saikal added, referencing Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Iran to make a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz “before all Hell will reign down on them”. Trump has already threatened to bomb energy plants in Iran. Targeting of civilian infrastructure is seen as a violation of the laws of war.

At least 2,076 people have been killed, and 26,500 have been injured in Iran since February 28, when the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several other senior military and political leaders.

The conflict has since escalated into a regional war with Iran retaliating against Gulf countries hosting US military and commercial assets.

What happened to the missing airman?

The F-15E jet carrying two members was flying over southern Iran when it was shot down on Friday morning local time.

According to Tehran, the aircraft was shot down by Iran’s “new advanced air defence system”, which it said remained effective despite claims by the US that it had been destroyed.

It was the first time during the war, and the first time since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, that a US aircraft had been shot down.

Washington immediately launched a rescue mission. Although US forces rescued one crew member hours after the crash, the second pilot, believed to be a colonel-rank weapons system officer, was yet to be found.

At least one Black Hawk helicopter was hit in the initial rescue, but US officials said it managed to stay airborne.

Trump suggested that the US appeared to have the location of the airman and was tracking him as the rescue mission unfolded in an area with difficult, mountainous terrain that made physical recovery challenging.

An A-10 Warthog aircraft was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz around the same time as the F-15E, but its pilot was able to eject before the plane crashed and was subsequently rescued. Iranian media reported that this aircraft was also hit by Iran’s defence system.

How did Iran react?

Following the downing of the F-15E, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cordoned off some parts of the mountainous southwestern Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province because they believed the airman went down in the vicinity.

Iranian media also reported that parts of the southern Khuzestan region, an important energy hub, were being scrutinised. That region was the focus of heavy US-Israeli strikes on Saturday that killed at least five people and injured dozens.

Iranian authorities, in a rare move, called on the public on Friday to help find and capture the missing American soldier. State media reported that Tehran offered a $60,000 reward for the airman as clips on state TV repeatedly played footage showing the remnants of the downed US aircraft.

Nomadic tribes in the area, appearing to heed the calls, set about searching for the US airman. Footage from state media showed men carrying rifles and Iranian flags moving in between the mountains of the country’s southwest region.

Some successfully shot at two US Black Hawks that were part of the rescue mission, Iranian officials said. The BBC also verified footage appearing to show Iranian men firing their rifles at US helicopters.

Nomadic groups in Iran, and elsewhere, usually carry rifles to protect their cattle from wildlife and bandits.

The IRGC on Sunday claimed that Iranian forces destroyed two C-130 aircraft and two Black Hawk helicopters during the operation to rescue the US pilot in southern Isfahan.

What did the US do to retrieve the soldier?

Early on Sunday morning, Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that the missing soldier had been rescued in “one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S History”.

“This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue,” Trump said in his message.

The president revealed some details of the high-risk operation. He had ordered that dozens of aircraft carrying “lethal weapons” be sent in to retrieve the airman who had managed to evade Iranian forces for two days. All the while, the US was tracking the airman.

Although Trump did not reveal details of the firefight believed to have ensued when the US closed in on the airman and went to retrieve him, he confirmed that the officer “sustained injuries” and added that “he will be just fine”.

Al Jazeera’s John Hendren gathered that there was a “heavy firefight” as what was meant to be a “get-in and get-out” rescue operation dragged on.

While US forces had aimed to use the cover of night to conduct the rescue mission after closing in on the airman, enemy fire prolonged the mission into daylight, making it more dangerous.

“We’ve heard it described to us as a heavy firefight,” Hendren reported. “In the end, they managed to spirit that airman out of the country … and into safety, but it didn’t come without injuries, including injuries to that airman himself, but in the end, the US was allowed to avoid a situation where they would have a prisoner of war inside of Iran.”

Hendren added that the US had earlier started a disinformation campaign in Iran, according to officials, claiming the airman was already rescued, to jeopardise Iran’s search.

Iran has not yet confirmed the incident. Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said the firefight appeared to have occurred in the Kohgiluyeh Boyer-Ahmad region, and that nine people have been reported killed in “strikes”, although it is unclear if it was related to the US rescue mission.

Meanwhile, Iranian authorities said on Sunday morning that yet another US aircraft – a Lockheed C-130 Hercules – had been downed.

The US has not responded to those claims. At least one such aircraft was spotted flying low over southwest Iran, along with two smaller refuelling helicopters, during the rescue mission effort of the last 48 hours.

Spectators have been told to stay away from Durham’s Riverside ground at Chester-le-Street after it was hit by Storm Dave overnight.

The start of the third day’s play in the County Championship Division Two match between Durham and Kent has been delayed.

A club statement said “damage has been caused within the venue” and fans have been advised to stay away.

The statement continued: “The club have been in discussions with the match officials and venue staff this morning and following the impact on the pitch and structures within the ground it is confirmed that play will not commence on time, and a further update will be provided in due course.

“The safety of all in attendance is our number one priority in any decisions we make.”

The extent of the damage at the Riverside, an international cricket venue, has not yet been disclosed.

Tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada Sadr’s supporters rallied across Baghdad and other cities on Saturday, protesting against the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iraq has been unwillingly drawn into the regional tension, suffering attacks targeting both US interests and pro-Iranian factions within its territory.

In Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, enormous crowds, including some women, filled the streets, brandishing Iraqi flags and shouting: “No, no to Israel” and “No, no to America”.

“What America and Israel are doing in their aggression against the countries of the region is not a war of a military nature, but a senseless war,” said Dhirgham Samir, a demonstrator in his 40s.

“Today’s demonstration is an expression of rejection of aggression, arrogance, and injustice throughout the world, not just in Iraq,” he told the AFP news agency, adding that “this is a senseless war, targeting civilians”.

The ongoing war has resulted in thousands of casualties throughout the region since it began.

Sadr had issued calls for peaceful demonstrations “to condemn the Zionist-American aggression and to establish peace in the region”.

Beneath Baghdad’s Freedom Monument, which honours Iraq’s independence declaration, protesters denounced what they characterised as US and Israeli meddling in regional matters.

“They violate the rights of all the peoples of the region first, and then the world,” Muslim leader Ali al-Fartousi told AFP. “Humanity must speak out against these people and stop them. The time has come for the entire world to stand united against global Zionist-American arrogance.”

Sadr commands a loyal following of millions within Iraq’s Shia majority and has consistently demonstrated his ability to mobilise large crowds. Though he has opposed various governments over the years, his influence extends into Iraqi ministries and official institutions through his representatives.

Iran claims another US aircraft involved in the rescue of the F-15 fighter pilot has been shot down.

The United States has rescued the second crew member of a US F-15 jet shot down, President Donald Trump confirms, as Iran claims another US aircraft involved in the rescue has been downed in the province of Isfahan.

“This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies,” Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Sunday. “He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine.”

The airman, who Trump said held the rank of colonel, was the second member of a two-person crew of an F-15 that Iran said on Friday had been brought down by its air defences.

“This miraculous search and rescue operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave pilot yesterday, which we did not confirm because we did not want to jeopardise our second rescue operation.”

The rescue resolves a crisis for the White House with the war on Iran in its sixth week.

The first member of the crew had been rescued, triggering a high-stakes search for the remaining airman by both Iran and the US.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, reporting from Tehran, said there had been no confirmation or denial from the Iranians on the pilot’s rescue.

“Over the past 24 hours, we have witnessed continuous air strikes on the location where the fighter jet was downed,” he said.

Another plane down?

Separately on Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a US aircraft that was looking for the missing officer in the southern province of Isfahan, according to Iran’s Fars news agency.

Fars posted a photo on its Telegram channel, showing thick smoke rising from a field, and said: “Trump’s desperate attempt to cover up a huge defeat.” Fars did not provide any details on the plane that was downed.

The high-stakes US rescue effort, which involved dozens of military aircraft, encountered fierce resistance from Iran.

Before Trump’s confirmation, Al Jazeera’s Jon Hendren, reporting from Washington, DC, quoted a US official as saying that US forces had encircled and were moving in on the downed airman, who had managed to avoid Iranian units for about two days.

“And then a firefight broke out. This happened in daylight,” Hendren reported. “Generally, special operations troops would go in for a rescue operation like that, and they would try to extract someone very quickly in the darkness. This went on for hours, we were told.”

In a separate incident, an A-10 Warthog fighter crashed after being hit over Kuwait, with the pilot ejecting, officials said. The degree of any injuries among the aircraft crew remained unclear.

Still, Trump was triumphant.

“The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a single American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again that we have achieved overwhelming air dominance and superiority over the Iranian skies,” he said in his statement.

The F-15E Weapons System Officer (WSO), missing since his plane was shot down on Friday, has been rescued after a very risky combat search and rescue operation and fierce firefight in southern Iran. The pilot had already been retrieved during the rescue operation in which two HH-60H Jolly Green II combat search and rescue (CSAR) helicopters were reportedly damaged by incoming fire, injuring several troops.

President Trump took to Truth Social confirming multiple reports that the WSO was safely in American hands.

WE GOT HIM! My fellow Americans, over the past several hours, the United States Military pulled off one of the most daring Search and Rescue Operations in U.S. History, for one of our incredible Crew Member Officers, who also happens to be a highly respected Colonel, and who I am thrilled to let you know is now SAFE and SOUND! This brave Warrior was behind enemy lines in the treacherous mountains of Iran, being hunted down by our enemies, who were getting closer and closer by the hour, but was never truly alone because his Commander in Chief, Secretary of War, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and fellow Warfighters were monitoring his location 24 hours a day, and diligently planning for his rescue. At my direction, the U.S. Military sent dozens of aircraft, armed with the most lethal weapons in the World, to retrieve him. He sustained injuries, but he will be just fine. This miraculous Search and Rescue Operation comes in addition to a successful rescue of another brave Pilot, yesterday, which we did not confirm, because we did not want to jeopardize our second rescue operation. This is the first time in military memory that two U.S. Pilots have been rescued, separately, deep in Enemy Territory. WE WILL NEVER LEAVE AN AMERICAN WARFIGHTER BEHIND! The fact that we were able to pull off both of these operations, without a SINGLE American killed, or even wounded, just proves once again, that we have achieved overwhelming Air Dominance and Superiority over the Iranian skies. This is a moment that ALL Americans, Republican, Democrat, and everyone else, should be proud of and united around. We truly have the best, most professional, and lethal Military in the History of the World. GOD BLESS AMERICA, GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS, AND HAPPY EASTER TO ALL!

“U.S. special forces rescued the second crew member of the F-15 fighter jet that was shot down over Iran,” Axios reported prior to Trump’s posting, citing three U.S. officials. “Saturday’s operation was conducted by a specialized commando unit with a high volume of air cover…the U.S. forces unleashed a hail of heavy fire, and that all of the forces were now out of Iran.”

Videos emerged from the scene showing what appears to be missile strikes, with the sounds of gunfire and explosions being heard.

Another video purports to show Iranian citizens in the area, searching for the pilot. Tehran has offered a large reward for the WSO’s capture. Seizing the airman, or killing them, would have provided an enormous public relations windfall for Tehran and embarrassment for Washington.

Earlier Saturday evening, the Instagram account for U.S. Air Force Special Warfare Recruiting said the WSO was rescued.

“BREAKING: The missing F-15E weapons systems officer that was shot down in Iran yesterday was recovered alive by American Special Operations with Air Force Special Warfare attachments inside contested enemy area in Iran.

Special operators willingly put their lives on the line to rescue the fallen, engaged in a ‘massive firefight’ at the extraction site, and fought with all they had ‘so that others may live.’

What a win for America, and the WSO who paid attention in SERE training. What a win for the Air Force Special Warfare community. If you are looking to join America’s best and bravest that bring our fellow Americans home on their worst days, contact your local Air Force Recruiter today!

F-15 WSO recovered alive. Was escaping and evading. Massive fire fight on tgt. Iranians were actively looking for him in the area.”

In addition, journalist and former Green Beret Jack Murphy stated on X that they were rescued before reports began to hit online.

Since the shootdown, the U.S. has deployed a rescue packages including fighters for top cover, the HH-60W Jolly Green II helicopters and HC-130J Combat King CSAR planes, surveillance jets and drones, among many other assets. You can read more about what goes into a CSAR package in our previous reporting here. As the U.S. search continued Saturday for the WSO, a large firefight reportedly broke out in the southern area of Iran near where the crash took place.

As we have frequently noted, CSAR operations are among the most dangerous and complex missions U.S. troops perform, penetrating into potentially highly defended territory where, in this case, one of America’s most capable combat aircraft did not survive. All this is taking place with the Iranians on the highest alert and very active with their own hunt for the WSO. The fact that the operation was launched in broad daylight soon after the F-15E went down shows the stunning amount of risk U.S. personnel took on in order to save one of their own.

After the crash, videos emerged of the rescue efforts.

One showed a Combat King flying low over the Iranian countryside.

A rescue helicopter can be seen coming under Iranian fire in the following video.

Company says move amid US-Israel war on Iran comes after a request from the US government.

Satellite imaging company Planet Labs has said it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the ⁠region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from United States President Donald Trump’s administration.

The US company announced the decision in an email to customers on Saturday, with news agencies quoting it as saying the government had asked satellite imagery providers ⁠to impose an “indefinite withhold of imagery”.

The restriction expands upon a 14-day delay on imagery of the Middle East that Planet Labs implemented last month, which extended an initial 96-hour delay, a move the firm said was meant to prevent adversaries from using the imagery to attack the US and its allies.

Planet Labs said it will withhold imagery dating back to March 9 and ‌that it expects the policy to remain in effect until the end of the war, which began on February 28 when the US and Israel launched aerial attacks against Iran. The conflict has since spread across the region, with Iran firing missile and drone barrages at Israel and US assets, as well as civilian infrastructure across the Gulf.

Planet Labs, which was founded in 2010 by former NASA scientists, said in its email to customers that it would switch to a “managed distribution of images” deemed not ⁠to pose a risk to safety.

Under a new system, Planet Labs will release imagery on a case-by-case basis for urgent, mission-critical requirements or in the public interest.

“These ⁠are extraordinary circumstances, and we are doing all we can to balance ⁠the needs of all our stakeholders,” the California-based company was quoted as saying.

Military uses of satellite technology include target identification, weapons guidance, missile tracking and communications. Some space specialists say Iran could be accessing commercial imagery, including pictures obtained via US adversaries. Satellite images also help journalists and academics ⁠studying hard-to-reach places.

The “Cultural Re-existence” column will provide insights into how our ancestral practices, habits, customs, and traditions remain alive today because Venezuelans preserve them through the human spirit they embody and amplify. These are expressions of women and men grounded in reality, history, and a consciousness of their subjective revolutionary role, as well as their responsibility and commitment to defending life.

March, in addition to being the month honoring women, is a month of celebration centered on Venezuela’s most widespread traditional rhythm: joropo. (1) And although this is a community tradition with unique variations throughout Venezuela, on March 19 the town of Elorza in Apure state hosts a ten-day festival that draws thousands of people from all over Venezuela and other countries, to participate and enjoy concerts until dawn, joropo llanero singing and dancing contests, sports and recreational activities linked to the Llano culture, as well as culinary and artisan fairs. Another iconic date this month is March 15, since in 2014 the Bolivarian government declared “Traditional Venezuelan Joropo in All its Diversity” to be part of the nation’s cultural heritage. From that moment, this date has been commemorated as National Joropo Day.

As a community-based festival, the Venezuelan joropo in its various forms—in the eastern, north-central coastal, llanos, western, and Andean regions—has seen Venezuelan women become committed cultural creators who are conscious of their community’s identity, the very identity that has allowed them to endure since colonial times, keeping alive the feelings, thoughts, and actions that extend beyond their own lives, into the lives of their children and grandchildren. 

Venezuelan women, as practitioners of the various joropos, have had to fight—as women and as joropo creators—against the Inquisition, the nation-state, and the cultural industry for their right to exist. It is well known that these institutions demonized them for “disturbing devotion,” and even today they compel them to adopt a masculinized representation of their own identity or impose the sexualization of their aesthetic expression. There is a historical debt to acknowledge the heroic insurgency that the practice, creation, and celebration of the various Venezuelan joropos have meant for the Venezuelan people, and this debt is owed primarily to the joroperas [female joropo practitioners] for their unrelenting commitment to our identities, even during the most complex moments of our history as an insurgent people.

For these reasons, we wanted to inaugurate our column with the perspective that Venezuelan women have on this popular community festival. Through Fabiola José, we were invited to the 3rd “Mujer Joropo” (Joropo Women) Gathering, held in honor of singer Cecilia Todd and dancer María Ruíz. This was our cue to attend the “Joropazo” organized at the San Carlos Barracks in Caracas on March 15, and to participate as singers and spectators in this gathering of women, an artistic-cultural initiative that brought together singers, dancers, and musicians of all ages, with repertoires integrating both the traditional music and dances of our communities and more contemporary musical and choreographic expressions that speak to multigenerational dialogue and the enduring relevance of this popular art form.

Honoring women’s role in joropo

Carolina Veracierta is the organizer of Mujer Joropo. A dancer, writer, designer, and singer, she explained to us that the project “focuses on women not just in a supporting role but as a protagonist, a creator, and carrier of ancestral knowledge.”

“For me, the joropo isn’t just a musical genre or a dance; it’s the language through which my body and my voice express my very essence. It’s the echo of my childhood in Monagas state and the strength that has sustained me on stages far away,” she explained. “When I dance the joropo, I don’t just move my feet; I shake off my sorrows, celebrate my victories, and honor the women who, before me, kept the rhythm in their skirts and in their songs to accompany the milking of cows.”

Asked about the importance of an event featuring women exclusively, Veracierta argued that joropo has historically had “a very masculine narrative” but that women have always been present, “sustaining the rhythm and in tandem with the man’s foot-stomping.”

“Celebrating it among women is an act of sorority and empowerment,” she concluded. “Joropo has the soul of a woman.”

Amaranta Pérez, another artist featured in the event, told us that joropo brings her an immediate jolt of happiness. “It takes me back to my family’s roots between Parmana and Valle de la Pascua [Guárico state], it is a sort of therapy,” she said. “I especially cherish the lyrics that express the love for our people, landscapes, history, and the folk tales from our wonderful authors that are turned into songs.”

Amaranta defended the importance of events like Mujer Joropo to help correct women’s “unequal” participation in the artistic sphere.

For her part, singer, professor, and bassoonist Luisana Pérez affirmed that “joropo for me is synonymous with Venezuela, from its history to the yellow, blue, red and eight stars that make up the national flag.”

Concerning Mujer Joropo, Luisana explained that “it was unusual to see women playing the mandolin, the harp, or the cuatro” and that these kinds of events “are a beautiful way to reclaim the role played by women in joropo.”

More than 20 artists participated in this third edition of Mujer Joropo, demonstrating the commitment of contemporary Venezuelan women to their own history, to the artistic legacy of their ancestors, and to the responsibility of preserving and promoting the heritage they now hold.

From underground communal festivity to national identity manufactured by the music industry

On April 10, 1749, the governor and captain general of Venezuela, Don Luis Francisco de Castellanos, published what may be the first documented reference to the joropo. He did so in the form of a decree banning the Xoropo Escobillado, “…due to its extreme movements, insolence, heel-stomping, and other indecencies, it has been frowned upon by some people of sound mind…”. The official decided to consult the Royal Audience on this matter, likely due to widespread controversy, and in the meantime, warned that those who violated the ban would face public scrutiny plus two years of imprisonment, and women would be “…confined to hospitals for an equal period…”.

Although this is the first formal ban to explicitly name joropo, we cannot overlook the fact that, as early as 1532, the Catholic Church’s published constitutions regulated and prohibited popular festivals in general, especially those where the music and dances of Mulatto, Black, and Indigenous women “…disturb devotion…,” or where both sexes mingle in dance, or those where the veneration of saints was a pretext for throwing a party. 

If we consider that there is evidence that the first vihuelas [medieval Spanish string instrument] arrived in 1529 in the territory we now call Venezuela, and if we acknowledge the express order of the Catholic Monarchs to ship instruments and musicians starting with Columbus’s second voyage (1493), we could infer that between these dates and Governor Castellanos’s ban, there were some 220–250 years of incubation for what would eventually become an irreversible trend in popular culture, which the colonial order had no choice but to accept.

Although the term xoropo has been interpreted as coming from Arabic as jarabe ( شراب , sharab), for the Andalusian researcher, poet, and musician Antonio Manuel Rodríguez Ramos, the root is undoubtedly that of drinking ( شرب , shurib), and he explains that initially, this is how the festival of drinking, singing, dancing, and eating might have been called. And the fact is that drinking –alcohol– was the best way for converts to avoid suspicion from the Tribunal of the Holy Office of the Inquisition, which was formally operational in our country between 1610 and 1821.

Related to other rhythms including fandangos, jácaras, folías, jarabes, and sones, Venezuelan joropos were documented in the independence struggle that led Bolívar’s armies as far as Peru during the nineteenth century. In the mid-twentieth century, one of these joropos, the llanero, was established as the national music style and dance, though it was a version that had certainly lost its communal and rustic character. By then, the music industry, aware of the deep roots these sounds had in Venezuelans, marketed a series of commercial products featuring music, lyrics, and singers stylized to fit institutional, urban, and bourgeois tastes.

As we noted above, on March 15, 2014, the Venezuelan government declared “Traditional Venezuelan Joropo in All its Diversity” as part of the nation’s cultural heritage, recognizing it as an element of identity and unity –not only in many of our festivities and collective expressions throughout the country, but also as a collective process of community organization. The declaration of the diversity of joropos as cultural heritage was the result of a series of debates that took place both within the community of cultural workers and among research specialists.

With the same strategy of asserting the joropo not only as a dance but as a complex cultural system that integrates music, song, dance, poetry, and oral traditions passed down through generations, Venezuela proposed to the UNESCO Intergovernmental Committee for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage that the Venezuelan joropo be included on the Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity. The committee approved the proposal on December 9, 2025.

Venezuelan joropos thus allow people to come together and reclaim their humanity through the recognition of their own dignity. Through parrandas, festivals for singing, dancing, eating, and drinking, joropo expresses a communal setting where agriculture, cattle rearing, and fishing were the means of sustaining life. Persecuted by the colonial order, homogenized by the nation-state, and commercialized by the music industry through jingle-franchise schemes, Venezuelan joropos also survived the journey from the rural countryside to the oil-driven urban environments.

This continuous history of persecution, denial, whitewashing, and normalization has actually pushed joropo women and men to sneak away, resonate, hold firm, reinvent themselves, and stand out in a permanent process of self-consciousness, recognition, and realization. It is not merely a connection to the land, to love, to our mothers, but to the dream of living in a free land, and the will to produce a cultural liberation project.

Note

(1) With a myriad of local expressions, joropo is the most widespread traditional rhythm in Venezuela. Its execution typically features at least one singer, maracas as percussion, the Venezuelan cuatro [four-stringed instrument], and other string instruments such as the harp or the mandolin. The most well-known variations are the joropo llanero, from the plains region, joropo oriental from the eastern coastal areas and Margarita island, and joropo central from Miranda and Aragua states in the center of the country. Listen to the songs above for examples.

Fabiola José is a Venezuelan singer. She has performed in countries across South America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Her singles and albums are available on all digital platforms. She hosted and produced “Cantante y Sonante” for Radio Nacional de Venezuela. In 2018–2019, she created a series of videos for social media, published on her YouTube channel #HechoEnCasa. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Music from IUDEM, Caracas (2005); specialized under Maestro Tom Krause in Spain (2007); and an M.A. in Arts and Cultures of the South from UNEARTE, Venezuela (2020).

Fidel Barbarito is a Venezuelan musician and researcher, with a bachelor’s and master’s degrees in music and history, respectively. He teaches in the undergraduate and graduate programs at the National Experimental University of the Arts (UNEARTE). Together with Fabiola José, he promotes several musical projects aimed at disseminating traditional folk repertoires, integrating them with contemporary compositions inspired by these sounds. Joropo llanero. Parranda de reexistencia is one of his published essays.

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

The U.S. Air Force Materiel Command’s secretive NT-43A has been spotted in Florida, taking part in the preparations for the launch of NASA’s long-delayed Artemis II lunar space mission. This highly unique and notoriously shy plane, a converted militarized Boeing 737-200 variant (T-43) also commonly known by the callsign RAT55, has long been used as an airborne signature measurement platform to support work related to stealthy military aircraft. However, during a high-stakes space launch, its two huge radar arrays, modular electro-optical and infrared sensors, and other capabilities would likely be well-suited to gathering telemetry and other valuable data, as you can read more about here.

RAT55 was spotted yesterday flying over Melbourne, on Florida’s eastern coastline, which was already highly unusual. The jet is very easy to identify, even in the distance, due to its heavily modified nose and massive aft radome protruding from the rear of the fuselage. The NT-43A seems to live at the Tonopah Test Range Airport (TTR), a high-security facility in Nevada long associated with shadowy aircraft programs. It is often spotted flying around Area 51 in Nevada and Edwards Air Force Base in neighboring California, both of which are major U.S. military flight test hubs. It is rare to see it anywhere else.

The sighting of RAT55 in the skies above Melbourne aligned with online tracking data for a flight using the callsign NASA522. That track showed the aircraft – apparently miscoded as a C-130 Hercules transport plane – taking off from MacDill Air Force Base, situated to the southwest, and then flying an oval-shaped orbit in restricted airspace around the Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39B. The aircraft then returned to MacDill.

The Artemis II mission is currently scheduled to launch from Launch Complex 39B today at 6:24 PM EDT. A Space Launch System (SLS) rocket will take four astronauts in an Orion capsule into space on what is expected to be a nine-and-a-half-day-long trip. This will be the first crewed lunar mission of any kind since Apollo 17 in 1972, but the Artemis II crew will not actually set foot on the Moon. They will instead pass by, hopefully setting a new record for the longest distance that people have traveled away from Earth. The target distance is 252,000 miles, some 4,000 miles beyond the current record, set by the crew of the ill-fated Apollo 13 lunar mission in 1970. The Artemis II mission’s main goal is to help lay the groundwork for future missions to the lunar surface, the first of which is now expected to come in 2028.

The fueling process for the Artemis II rocket has picked up speed. The rocket is now more quickly filling with liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen.

When the core stage is completely full, it will contain 196,000 gallons of liquid oxygen and 537,000 gallons of liquid hydrogen. pic.twitter.com/wejiCveeNb

— NASA Artemis (@NASAArtemis) April 1, 2026

NASA regularly uses fixed-wing aircraft to gather imagery and other important data during space launches. One of its high-flying WB-57F research planes, which are routinely used to provide optical tracking, was also flying around Launch Complex 39B yesterday at the same time as the NASA522 flight. The WB-57F conducted that flight from the Kennedy Space Center’s Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF).

This is correct, there are two separate NOTAMs for support aircraft that match both flight tracks. This was an obvious rehearsal. pic.twitter.com/X3i5RbP4T2

— Dillon Shropshire (@Dillonshrop06) April 1, 2026

It is unclear why RAT55 has been called in to help, especially given that the U.S. military, and the U.S. Navy in particular, has an array of dedicated range support aircraft specially configured to support missile test activities, and a history of using them to support NASA launches in the past. TWZ has reached out to the Air Force and NASA for more information.

Still, as already noted, the NT-43A does have a sensor suite that would likely be very relevant to the space launch support mission. Beyond helping to collect more general telemetry information, the unique capabilities the aircraft has to offer might be used to gain more detailed insights into various aspects of the SLS rocket and the Orion capsule at launch. One of the tasks RAT55 is more typically understood to perform is helping to verify surface coatings on low-observable (stealthy) aircraft. Specialized coatings and other materials, especially to provide critical thermal protection, are a key aspect of space launch rocket and spacecraft design.

Though the WB-57F has numerous modular payload bays, as well as space for sensor and other equipment in underwing pods, the NT-43A offers a more capacious airframe, overall, along with optional dorsal fairings. NASA could fill this space with additional systems to meet other mission requirements.

In addition, it is worth mentioning here that NASA only has three WB-57Fs, and one made a fiery belly landing in Houston, Texas, back in January. The current status of that aircraft is unclear. Whether or not this was a factor in the decision to utilize the NT-43A is unknown.

The Air Force does have its own previous history of supporting NASA Moon missions, specifically, with specialized fixed-wing aircraft, which The Aviationist has noted. During the 1960s and 1970s, the U.S Air Force supported the Apollo program with a fleet of EC-135N Apollo/Range Instrumentation Aircraft (ARIA) planes, which were also used to track missile tests. The ARIA jets carried very large radars in their bulbous noses. Those aircraft were later redesignated as EC-135Es and continued to be used for various flight test activities until the last example was retired in 2000.

Choosing the NT-43A for this task at all is still somewhat curious, given the U.S. military’s array of other missile tracking and range support telemetry aircraft, especially within the U.S. Navy. Those fleets continue to evolve, including with the Navy’s addition of its Gulfstream G550 business jet-based NC-37B. Repurposed RQ-4 Global Hawk drones are even now in the mix. There is a history of similar U.S. military planes supporting NASA launches in the past. It isn’t clear if additional roles for the NT-43A are going to be a common thing, but it certainly appears that its mission set is expanding. This is a very interesting development for an aging aircraft that has lived in the shadows for so long.

Regardless, the Artemis II launch is especially important for NASA, in general. There has only been one all-up launch of an SLS before now, in 2022, and no astronauts were on board at that time. The Artemis program has been dogged by setbacks and delays, with the hope originally that the Artemis III mission would bring Americans back to the lunar surface in 2024.

The video below shows the first SLS launch as part of the uncrewed Artemis I mission in 2022.

NASA’s Artemis I Launches on Nov. 16, 2022

NASA is now in line to finally reach the next Artemis milestone with today’s planned launch, and is doing so with help from the Air Force’s unique and rarely seen RAT55.

UPDATE: 7:42 PM EDT –

We have now received additional information from the U.S. Air Force about RAT55, which you can find in a follow-up story here.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Europe’s Red Sea naval task force tells us it is prepared for the resumption of Houthi attacks on shipping in the region. The Iranian proxy group has already launched several ballistic missile strikes against Israel since joining the ongoing war in the Middle East over the weekend. Now there is growing concern that the Houthis could effectively shut down the Bab el-Mandeb (BAM) strait, a narrow stretch of water between Yemen and Djibouti. Doing so would choke off a flow of oil exports from Saudi Arabia, especially to east, exacerbating a huge spike in oil prices after Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping. Having both straits closed at once is something of a ‘sum of all fears’ scenario for the global energy marketplace.

A new Houthi offensive would be a major cudgel for Iran, because it would open a new front in the war and draw in military resources at a time when they are heavily involved in Epic Fury. A potential activation of the Houthis is arguably Tehran’s biggest military card left to play, but just how much control Tehran retains over the Houthis is unclear.

Operation Aspides “maintains a high level of situational awareness and conducts daily assessments of potential risks to freedom of navigation, making necessary operational adjustments where required,” an Aspides official told The War Zone. “In the event of a resumption of Houthi attacks to merchant vessels – which remains a possibility – we are present and ready to implement our mandate.”

“At the moment the missile launches from Houthi against Israel mark the first step,” the official added. “Their statement is not as clear and not a direct threat to merchant vessels passing through the Red Sea. Of course as we’ve already mentioned, a resumption of Houthi attacks to merchant vessels still remains a possibility.”

Aspides was created in February 2024 during the Houthi’s 15-month campaign against warships and commercial vessels. It is a defensive operation to provide protection for ships transiting the Red Sea region and situational awareness about Houthi threats.

Operation Prosperity Guardian, a similar effort created months earlier by the U.S. Navy that we were the first to write about, was disbanded a year ago after the Houthis agreed to a ceasefire. Its responsibilities were subsumed by Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 50, the surface warfare task force under U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT). U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on Wednesday declined to comment about what, if any, preparations DESRON 50 is making for the possible resumption of Houthi aggression in the Red Sea.

So far, the Houthis’ intentions for the Red Sea region remain publicly unknown. On Wednesday, the group’s spokesman, Yahya Saree, announced they struck southern Israel with ballistic missiles in coordination with Iran and Hezbollah. No mention was made about the Red Sea.

“The Yemeni Armed Forces, with Allah’s help and reliance upon Allah, carried out the third military operation in the ‘Holy Jihad Battle,’ targeting sensitive Israeli enemy targets…” Saree stated.

However, as we noted yesterday, Iran is pushing the rebels “to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, contingent upon any further escalation by the US in its war on the Islamic Republic,” Bloomberg News reported, citing European officials familiar with the matter.

Houthi leaders “are weighing options for more aggressive action after launching ballistic missiles at Israel,” Bloomberg added. During their previous campaign launched in late 2023, the Houthis attacked so many vessels with missiles and aerial and surface drones that shipping companies avoided the waterway, creating a spike in the price of some goods because alternative routes were much longer, resulting in increased cost of fuel, insurance and wages for crews. 

At issue now are the increasing amount of oil exports flowing through the BAM in the wake of Iran’s Strait closure. 

“Over the first 28 days of March, the amount of crude oil transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait jumped by 21% compared with February,” CNN noted, citing the Vortexa shipping data firm. 

In the past two weeks, Saudi Arabia has diverted nearly five million barrels a day of crude oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the network added. While just a fraction of the 15 million barrels a day that have been cut off by the Strait closure, the Yanbu exports have helped reduce oil shortages and blunt price increases. Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, reached a high of more than $107 per barrel on March 30 but fell to just over $101 per barrel as of Wednesday morning Eastern Standard Time, according to the latest figures from OilPrices.com.

A disruption of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea transit option could cause oil prices to rise much higher and very quickly, creating a cascading wave of financial impacts across the globe. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were opened today, it will still take a while for the global economy to recover from the shock. Meanwhile, for Saudi Arabia, the simultaneous closure of both straits is a long-standing nightmare, a financial double-whammy that would also send energy prices around the globe skyrocketing.

Beyond the purely economic impact that a resumption of Houthi attacks would bring, defending against them could require military assets at a time when the U.S. is still building up its already heavy commitment for Operation Epic Fury. During the previous Houthi Red Sea campaign that stretched into early 2025, the U.S. and allies deployed many warships, including the Eisenhower and Truman Carrier Strike Groups (CGS) to both defend against Houthi attacks and strike targets in Yemen. These operations resulted in a large expenditure of air defense munitions already under tremendous strain as Iran rains down missiles and drones across the Middle East.

You can see video from some of those encounters below.

Strikes on Iranian-backed Houthi Targets by USS Gravely, USS Carney, and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower

At the moment, the U.S. has only the Lincoln CSG in the Middle East after the departure of the USS Gerald R. Ford for repairs from a fire. While the USS George H.W. Bush is reportedly on the way to replace the Ford, that journey will take a while. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has pushed thousands of Marines and a contingent of the 82nd Airborne to the region in advance of what could be an attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, which would greatly escalate Epic Fury.

The future of the U.S. fight against Iran remains unclear. Monday morning, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Iran wanted a ceasefire, which he would only consider after they reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pushed back against that, which you can read more about in our story here. We might learn more tonight during Trump’s scheduled 9 p.m. speech about the war.

What role the Houthis may play in this conflict is not fully clear. They are the most independent of Iran’s proxy groups and often act on their own accord. A weakened Iran could further imperil any obedience they have to the regime in Tehran, though there is also the question of what would happen to Houthi weapon stocks should the Islamic Republic, a key supplier, fall. There is also a long history of fighting with Saudi Arabia to consider, as that could be rekindled.

Regardless, if the conflict continues, the Houthis opening a second front in the Red Sea would have wide-ranging military and economic effects and we will continue to closely monitor the situation.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

One of the most striking visuals to emerge in the current conflict with Iran has been videos of ballistic missiles unleashing torrents of cluster munitions at very high altitudes over Israel. In doing so, the Iranians look to have found a worrisome way to consistently get around terminal-phase ballistic missile defenses, especially Israel’s David’s Sling.

The gap that the Iranians are leveraging with these cluster munition missile attacks goes beyond just bypassing terminal defenses. It, by extension, puts greater pressure on diminishing stocks of prized mid-course interceptors to try to defeat these incoming threats before they release their payloads. With all this in mind, what we are seeing with Iran’s attacks on Israel with ballistic missiles with cluster warheads could have even greater implications for future conflicts elsewhere, particularly in the Pacific region.

In some five weeks of fighting, Iran had launched more than 500 ballistic missiles at Israel, with at least 30 of those having carried cluster munition payloads (likely many more), according to the Times of Israel. Iran had fired ballistic missiles with cluster warheads in anger for the first time in attacks on Israel during last year’s 12 Day War.

Iran has developed multiple types of submunitions that can be dispersed via different ballistic missiles in its inventory during the terminal phases of their flight. Ballistic missiles typically fly along roughly parabolic trajectories to their targets. The arc is generally broken down into three main sections: the boost phase right after launch, the terminal phase as the missile comes back down at the end, and the mid-course phase in between. During the mid-course phase, the missiles leave the Earth’s atmosphere, with larger types spending more time in space in the middle of their flight. You can learn more about the complexities of intercepting a target in the mid-course phase in our past report here.

A typical Iranian cluster warhead reportedly contains between 20 and 30 submunitions. However, larger missiles, like members of the Khorramshahr family, are said to be able to carry up to 80. Reports also state that the cluster munitions can contain anywhere between four and 11 pounds of explosives. The damage they can cause is further magnified by the high speed with which they impact the ground.

“Iran has shown pictures in the past of triconic warheads [for ballistic missiles] equipped with at least four different sizes and types of bomblets,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told TWZ. “So Iran calls these warheads ‘raining warheads,’ because these different bomblets will be showered on a wider geographic target set than if it was just the traditional unitary high explosive warhead. How many depends on what kind of configuration of bomblets they can actually choose to put in, but it can be easily a dozen-plus to two dozen to three dozen, depending on the size of the bomblets.”

The Iranian submunition installed in Iranian BM launched at Israel was seen TWICE in the past: In 2016 weapons exhibition and in a failed KHORRAMSHAHR missile test in Iran, 2023. pic.twitter.com/AxCYSDxs69

— Tal Inbar (@inbarspace) June 21, 2025

For the first time, a SUB-MUNITION from an Iranian BM was found in Israel. It is not yet clear on what type of missile it was installed. pic.twitter.com/HgwxCsE0FS

— Tal Inbar (@inbarspace) June 19, 2025

“Most importantly, in this conflict, the regime is using the Khoramshar ballistic missile, which is a threshold medium-range ballistic missile modified from an intermediate-range ballistic missile that can carry the heaviest reported warhead weight,” he added. “So, the regime is basically filling a large conical warhead with lots of bomblets and cluster munitions that basically fuse and disperse upon re-entry into the atmosphere, posing a real challenge, even for integrated air and missile defense systems like what the Israelis have, and causing quite a bit of damage and civilian harm.”

Both the shape of the fragment and the serial number pattern indicate it was part of a Khorramshahr reentry vehicle.

Would confirm the suspicion that some of the large submunition releases observed over Israel were linked to the use of the Khorramshahr. https://t.co/KP4Sp1Yy9P pic.twitter.com/B7SC1q6GNQ

— Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) March 9, 2026

Khorramshah-4 is shorter than the previous versions as the missile engine is designed inside fuel tank.
The evolvement of different versions of Khorramshahr mostly deal with its re-entry vehicles which @inbarspace showed in this good picture. 3 pic.twitter.com/nm7kC6WfL2

— Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) November 3, 2024

Differentiating between missiles carrying cluster warheads and those with unitary ones is likely to be difficult, if not impossible, before any release of submarines occurs. This creates further challenges for defenders, as we will come back to later on.

In terms of dispersion, when Iran first fired cluster munition-laden ballistic missiles at Israel last year, authorities in the latter country said the weapons had released their payloads at an altitude of approximately 23,000 feet (seven kilometers). The submunitions were scattered across an area approximately 10 miles (16 kilometers) in diameter. This is in line with a report last month from CNN, where that outlet assessed two separate Iranian cluster missile attacks to have dropped submunitions across areas in Israel between roughly seven and eight miles (approximately 11 to 13 kilometers) long.

The IDF Home Front Command confirms that Iran launched at least one ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead at central Israel today.

The missile’s warhead split while descending, at around 7 kilometers altitude, spreading around 20 smaller munitions in a radius of… https://t.co/PF5RCpLfvH pic.twitter.com/2wyrH2JJM3

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 19, 2025

Israel’s Haaretz has also previously reported an instance where submunitions, apparently all from one missile, hit seven populated areas within a zone measuring nearly 17 miles (27 kilometers) across. This would point to a higher release altitude than the other cases.

A higher-altitude release earlier in the terminal phase of a missile’s flight inherently presents greater challenges for defenders trying to intercept the warhead before submunition release. Once the payload is dispersed, one larger target suddenly becomes dozens of smaller ones.

The David’s Sling system’s Stunner interceptors have a reported maximum engagement altitude of around nine miles (15 kilometers). However, various factors, especially the position of the launcher in relation to the target’s flight path, would impact the circumstances in which they would be able to reach the upper end of their envelope.

There are terminal missile defense systems with greater reach, such as the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the ship-launched Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), but their engagement envelopes still face positional constraints. THAAD would likely have the best chance as its interceptors can reach higher altitudes, in some circumstances, near the end of the transition from the mid-course to the terminal stage of flight.

As with Stunner, releases at very high altitudes would preclude intercept attempts by lower-tier terminal defenses like Patriot entirely.

All of this combines to creates a situation in which mid-course intercept attempts are critical for catching cluster munition-laden missiles before they release their payloads. However, inventories of relevant interceptors to defend targets in Israel have reportedly been dwindling after weeks of persistent Iranian ballistic missile attacks. Mid-course interceptors, like the U.S. Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) and the Israeli Arrow 3, are precious munitions that have generally been stockpiled at lower levels, to begin with. They also take years to procure and cost many millions of dollars each.

Retired Army Col. David Shank echoed much of this when speaking to TWZ about the challenges and complexities of responding to Iranian long-range ballistic missiles with cluster munition payloads. Shank, who served as Commandant of the Air Defense Artillery School at Fort Sill, Oklahoma, and as the 10th Army Air Missile Defense Commander in Europe, also highlighted that this threat would require the use of higher-end systems to attempt intercepts, either inside or outside of the Earth’s atmosphere, before any submunition payload is released.

“We talk endo/exo-atmospheric. We’re talking THAAD capability, [and] SM-6/SM-3-capable systems,” Shank explained. “And so we’re really talking upper-tier in order to defeat that type of target once it is launched.”

The video below shows THAAD interceptors being fired at incoming Iranian threats in the course of the current conflict.

“Obviously, the goal is to kill it before they even launch it through a variety of means to do that,” he continued. “But if you can’t do that, and there is some type of air launch. And the next step is that upper-tier capability, coupled with other domains.”

In terms of other domains, “let’s just talk space real quick,” he added. “Sensing that launch and detecting it and then passing that information over a network, ultimately to what we’re talking about now,” systems like THAAD and ships armed with SM-3s and SM-6s that are “capable of defeating that threat with endo- and exo-atmosphere capabilities I mentioned.”

Shank underscored the importance of trying to intercept ballistic missiles with cluster warheads at as high altitudes as possible before they can release their payloads.

“Once it hits that point where bomblets are released, so a mechanism within the platform that releases the bomblets, instead of now having one aerial threat, now you obviously have many,” he said. “So, very difficult now to engage multiple aerial threats at one time.”

Shank told us that watching videos of submunitions being dispersed from Iranian ballistic missiles reminded him of past modeling and simulation of such attacks he observed during his time in the Army.

“I’ve seen modeling and simulation, when I was still in uniform years ago, of how we would fight against those types of early-release munitions,” he said. “They had different names then, but it’s very similar to what we’re seeing now in real time.”

That modeling and simulation “would show that overmatch” and that “need to defeat that capability before it does disperse those early-release munitions or those bomblets,” he added.

The retired Army air defense officer noted that the ballistic missile threat ecosystem in the Middle East, in general, is made more complicated by the relatively short distances those weapons travel from launch points in Iran to their targets.

“In the scenario that’s playing out real time, potentially, if they’re launched out of southwestern Iran at the GCCs [Gulf Cooperation Council states on the Arabian Peninsula] – they’re the closest – so minutes, two, three, four minutes,” said Shank.

The time to react is further compressed when facing missiles carrying scatterable payloads. “You’re down to a minute or two.”

Attempts can still be made to intercept submunitions after they are released. At the same time, in addition to the challenge of trying to prioritize and engage dozens of smaller targets, intercept attempts against individual submunitions also impose different costs on the defender. These are targets that are likely to be cheap even compared to lower-cost interceptors. Trying to shoot them down with something like Patriot would create an even more lopsided exchange ratio. Also their singular destructive power is far less than a unitary payload.

“What’s the cost curve look like?” Shank said, speaking generally about how expensive this proposition could become.

“I talk cost curve a lot, [but] you got to recognize the boots and the people that are on the ground on the other end of that, and other national assets and capabilities,” Shank noted. “What is a Soldier’s life worth? … What is an E-3 AWACS aircraft that is high-demand, low-density – what value do you put on something like that, or even a Patriot radar?”

Overall, Iran’s use of ballistic missiles with cluster munition warheads highlights a “very big challenge in front of us, and so when I say in front of us, obviously in front of the warfighters. It’s a lot,” Shank said, highlighting the broader ramifications. “From an operator perspective, you have to discern which target is which, which one should be the priority to defeat first, how many of those bomblets are possibly going to impact dirt and not be a threat, and which ones will be the threat. You’ve got to discern [that] fairly quickly, and then pass on those engagement authorities to the shooters.”

As noted earlier, it is likely that defenders would be challenged to differentiate between missiles carrying submunitions and those with unitary payloads until a release occurs. This can only make it more difficult to prioritize intercept attempts against missiles with cluster munition warheads, especially in the mid-course phase of flight, when it would be most ideal. This could then contribute to a further wearing down of stocks of critical mid-course interceptors.

Shank stressed that this is not an entirely new problem set for the U.S. military, citing the aforementioned modeling and simulations.

“It helped drive discussions on increased [force] structure, increased requirements. It helped recognize, in this scenario [including missiles with cluster munition warheads], adversarial capabilities with regards to munitions,” he explained. “The results, or the findings, personally, were somewhat laughable.”

“We would run a scenario, not necessarily the Middle East, but we’d run a general scenario, and the outcomes would be, well, we need 48 Patriot battalions, as an example. And then that’s a hypothetical number, but it was a very large number,” Shank said. “And, so, when you think through this, at the time, I think the U.S. Army had 14 Patriot battalions. And this was a 2030-2035 scenario, which we’re a lot closer to today, and we have 16 Patriot battalions. And so even if you factored in – which we were not during that modeling and simulation period, or exercise – but even if you factored in our allies and partners, I’m not sure we have 48 Patriot battalions on planet earth.”

The PATRIOT Missile in Action

TWZ has written on several occasions in the past about the strains on the U.S. Army’s Patriot force, which is inadequate to meet current demands. This is reflective of broader air and missile defense capacity limitations across the U.S. military, despite efforts in recent years to change that paradigm. This has been highlighted again in the course of the current conflict with Iran, and would be an even bigger issue should a high-end fight, such as one in the Pacific against China, erupt.

As an aside to all this, Shank pointed to the importance of so-called “left-of-launch” operations to neutralize threats before they are even launched.

“Within the U.S. Army, we had four ‘pillars’ within integrated air and missile defense. It’s attack operations. It’s active air defense, passive air defense, and command and control,” he noted. “And so the attack operations piece is that left of launch piece. And I would also tie today some of our offensive cyber capabilities as part of attack operations.”

“Again, if we can prevent an adversary from launching or from getting to the launch pad,” he added. “So, whether it’s a supply chain disruption, whether it’s a special operations force with eyes on a target forward on a battlefield, or what we possess now [with] some of our surface-to-surface precision munitions, that can influence and defeat those capabilities before they launch.”

In recent years, the Army and other elements of the U.S. military have also pointed to the value of a similar breadth of left-of-launch activities for disrupting and defeating drone attacks, as you can read more about here.

It should be stressed here that, at least from what has been observed so far, Iran has been using ballistic missiles with cluster munition warheads primarily as terror weapons against population centers in Israel. The high-altitude releases have certainly helped those weapons get around terminal defenses like David’s Sling, but have also limited their ability to focus their effects on specific points on the ground. For vengeance attacks that also wear down the supply of mid-course interceptors, this is likely deemed adequate, and even less accurate cluster attacks still put military target under threat.

However, Iran’s demonstration of how this tactic can strain on an opponent’s layered defenses does have serious implications beyond the current conflict and the Middle East. Independent reports have previously highlighted the vulnerability of key U.S. air bases, especially in the Pacific, to attacks by cluster munition-laden ballistic missiles. Aircraft parked in the open and thin-skinned fuel storage sites are at particular risk from such strikes. This ties into a separate and increasingly heated debate about the value of investing in new hardened infrastructure, which TWZ continues to follow closely.

Those assessments are based on lower-altitude releases where submissions can be more focused on particular target areas. However, high-altitude releases could still be focused, at least to a general degree, on saturating very large area targets, including sprawling established air bases. As an example, the two main runways at the U.S. Air Force’s highly strategic Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, are roughly two miles long. They have taxiways and numerous open parking aprons attached to them. There are many other sprawling facilities on the island, too.

For an adversary like China, a barrage of missiles designed to scatter submunitions across larger areas could be relevant in striking a target like Andersen, or anything similarly large. Those weapons could also be used to help overwhelm defenses, eat up valuable interceptors, and otherwise sow chaos as part of layered strikes that also include more precise missiles, as well as drones. Even dispersing submunitions at lower altitudes to achieve better accuracy, but still relatively high within a system like Patriot’s interception envelope, would give a much smaller window to destroy the missile than compared to a traditional unitary warhead. In a future high-end fight in the Pacific, Chinese forces could also choose to employ this capability to attack large population centers, especially in Japan and elsewhere in the First Island Chain, similar to Iran’s attacks against Israel now.

The development of precision-guided submunitions capable of being released via ballistic missile would further change the equation. In 2024, the Guangdong Aerodynamic Research Academy (GARA) in China notably put forward a tangential concept for a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle carrying different kinds of scatterable payloads, including miniature missiles and drones. Ballistic missiles often also reach hypersonic speeds, generally defined as anything above Mach 5, in the terminal phase of flight, and any submunitions they release have to be able to withstand similar stresses.

There is no doubt that China, in particular, has been keenly watching the outcomes of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel, as well as other countries in the region. Israel’s integrated air and missile defense network has long been touted as the best in the world. The Gulf Arab states have also spent billions of dollars over the past decade or so to bolster their capabilities and overall capacity in the past decade or so with this exact scenario top of mind. The U.S. military’s higher-end ballistic missile defense posture in the Pacific remains relatively limited, and focused largely on very particular regions, despite years now of efforts to dramatically expand that architecture.

Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks has been significantly degraded over the past five weeks, but it has been able to keep up a persistent tempo regardless. China has a broader array of far more capable ballistic missiles, as well as other stand-off strike weapons, that it would bring to bear en masse in any future high-end fight in the Pacific.

Other countries, such as Russia or North Korea, could look to capitalize on what Iran has demonstrated with its cluster munition missile attack, as well. There has been a burst in the development and proliferation of ballistic missiles, in general, including to non-state actors, globally, in recent years.

If anything, application of these tactics by Iran help make the case for the Trump administration’s highly ambitious and expensive Golden Dome missile defense network, which will put a much higher-focus on mid-course intercept. This includes stationing interceptors in space.

Overall, while Iran has been using high-altitude releases of submunitions from ballistic missiles to help ensure it can continue executing succes attacks on Israel, it is a tactic that could have significant implications in other contexts in conflicts well beyond the Middle East.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Soon after the war between the US, Israel and Iran began, its ripple effects were evident.

Pakistan stands out as one of the countries paying a heavy price.

It’s heavily dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf.

And with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, the government increased the fuel price twice in a month.

The increases triggered mass protests, with people furious at the government’s decision to pass on the burden of higher costs.

Why is Pakistan more vulnerable to the current crisis than other countries?

Presenter: Rishaad Salamat

Guests:

Kaiser Bengali – Economist and former head of the Chief Minister’s Policy Reform Unit for Balochistan

Michael Kugelman – Senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council

Ali Salman – Founder and CEO of the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy

“This explosion will definitely worsen their condition.” The chief of Tehran’s Del Aram Sina Psychiatric Hospital showed media the damage a recent US-Israeli strike caused to the medical facility. He says it is now unable to treat patients suffering conditions like PTSD.

Videos show Palestinians in Gaza scrambling to extinguish a vehicle engulfed in flames in az-Zawayda after it was targeted by an Israeli drone. Israel has killed more than 700 people since the October 10 “ceasefire,” according to local officials.

Prime Minister Meloni is the first EU and NATO country leader to visit the region since the war began.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has met Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha to discuss the energy crisis due to the ongoing United States and Israeli war on Iran.

Meloni met the Qatari leader on Saturday in Doha, the second stop on a regional tour that began in Saudi Arabia the previous day and continues with a visit to the United Arab Emirates.

The leaders “tackled energy issues … and discussed possible measures to mitigate the shocks suffered”, according to a statement from her office.

Meloni told the Qatari leader that Rome was ready to “contribute to the rehabilitation of Qatari energy infrastructure, which is essential to energy security on a global scale”, the statement added.

Italy is highly dependent on energy imports and is concerned about rising energy prices that have resulted from Iran’s effective blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which some 20 percent of global oil and liquified natural gas transits.

The Qatari emir’s office said in a statement that both sides had “stressed the need to work towards de-escalation”.

“And prioritise political dialogue and diplomacy as the best way to contain the current crisis in the Middle East and its repercussions on energy and supply chains, and to safeguard energy security in the region,” the statement said.

“They also reviewed bilateral cooperation between the two countries and ways to support and develop it in various fields, particularly in the economy and energy,” it added.

Since the beginning of the war at the end of February, Iran has targeted US and Israeli targets in the region, in addition to targeting Gulf countries, including Qatar.

Iran has targeted Qatar’s energy installations, including a missile strike on Ras Laffan Industrial City, the country’s main gas facility, that caused “significant damage”. Doha says the attacks will affect its natural gas export capacity.

An Italian government source told the AFP news agency that Meloni’s trip to the Gulf aimed to “strengthen relations with these countries and repeat Italy’s support against Iranian attacks”.

The source added that the region was a “crucial source of oil and gas for Italy” and that Meloni is the first leader of a European Union or NATO country to travel to the region since the war broke out.

After meeting the Qatari emir, Meloni travelled to the United Arab Emirates, where she was received by President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

United States President Donald Trump has issued another threat to Iran, writing that it has two days to “make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait”.

Saturday’s brief, three-sentence post on Truth Social did not reference the ongoing search for a US pilot who is believed to have ejected over Iran after an F-15 fighter jet crashed in the country. Iran has taken responsibility for the downing, the first of its kind since the US and Israeli launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

A separate incident on Friday saw Iran claim it shot down an A-10 Warthog near the Strait of Hormuz, raising questions about Trump’s earlier assertion that the US has established dominance over Iran’s airspace.

Rather than remark on the recent crashes, Trump’s post focused on a 10-day deadline he announced on March 26.

He had called on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz to international traffic, or else face the “destruction” of its energy plants. That 10-day period is set to expire on Monday.

“Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” Trump wrote. “Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD!”

Stalled negotiations

While Trump did not provide further details about Saturday’s threat, in a series of posts this week, he pledged to attack Iran’s power plants, oil facilities and “possibly all desalinization plants”.

During a national address on Wednesday, he also threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”, and on Friday, he cheered a strike on a bridge that connects Tehran to the Caspian Sea.

Just this week, more than 100 international law experts published an open letter, warning that targeting civilian infrastructure is a violation of the Geneva Convention and could constitute war crimes.

The Trump administration has also offered shifting objectives and plans for ending the war.

Administration officials have repeatedly said that the US prefers a diplomatic solution. Trump, meanwhile, has touted “victories” even as he has hinted at more weeks of attacks.

At the same time, Iran and the US have sent contradictory messages on the progress of peace talks.

On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained open to diplomacy, after Iran rejected an “unreasonable” 15-point plan put forward by the Trump administration.

“What we care about are the terms of a conclusive and lasting END to the illegal war that is imposed on us,” Araghchi said in a post on X.

The US, however, has argued that Iran’s demand that it maintain “sovereignty” over the Strait of Hormuz is a non-starter.

Pakistan has indicated it will continue to try to support ceasefire negotiations despite the ongoing “obstacles”.

No mention of downed pilot

While Trump has not publicly addressed the ongoing search for the US pilot, NBC News reported on Friday that he did not believe the incident would affect any negotiations with Iran.

“No, not at all. No, it’s war,” he reportedly told the network in a phone call.

Nevertheless, experts have warned that the possible Iranian capture of the pilot could create a crisis for Washington, giving Tehran a major leverage point that could snarl any diplomatic resolution.

The incident could also undermine US claims it has a dominant position in negotiations.

Marina Miron, a researcher at King’s College London, said the shooting down of the F-15 undercuts statements from Trump and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth that the US has established complete control over Iranian airspace.

“Now we have a visible example that Iran still has the capability to target and successfully shoot down US aircraft, making this, of course, very important for Iran to demonstrate the capability to resist,” Miron told Al Jazeera.

“Most likely, the kinds of air defences that Iran is using, such as man-portable air defences, will be much more difficult to locate.”

Any US efforts to rescue the pilot would risk US casualties, Miron added, heightening the risk of further military escalation.

“It’s a race for time, because right now we have this critical window of up to 72 hours where both sides are trying to get hold of the pilot for both military and political purposes,” she said.

“A civilised government never targets institutions of knowledge.” Iran’s minister of science said the US and Israel are the ones that belong in the Stone Age following an attack on Tehran’s Shahid Beheshti University. Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi visited the site to see the damage.

Cambridge won a fourth consecutive Men’s Boat Race as Oxford claimed their first victory in the women’s race since 2016.

The Cambridge men came in as strong favourites for the 171st event but Oxford did well to stay with them for much of the race in tricky and blustery conditions along the 4.3-mile course from Putney to Chiswick.

But the class of the Light Blues came through in the final third as they pulled clear to triumph by 11.02 seconds for a seventh win in eight years.

In the 80th edition of the women’s race, Oxford made a blistering start and Cambridge were unable to respond as the Dark Blues stayed strong to win by 9.4 seconds and celebrate their 31st overall success.

Introducing TWZ’s weekly carrier tracker monitoring America’s flattop fleet, including deployed Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, using publicly available open-source information.

Three U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) have deployed in support of Operation Epic Fury, as two Amphibious Ready Groups (ARG), with Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) embarked, converge on the Middle East. The George H.W. Bush CSG is the latest to join the fray, departing Naval Station Norfolk on March 31 for a regularly scheduled deployment, reportedly to U.S. Central Command. Bush is set to relieve the Gerald R. Ford CSG, which has been deployed for more than nine months and departed the Port of Split, Croatia, on April 2 following a five-day port call. The Abraham Lincoln CSG is operating from an undisclosed location in the Arabian Sea and conducting nonstop combat operations against Iran. The Tripoli ARG and 31st MEU arrived in CENTCOM last week, and the Boxer ARG and 11th MEU are transiting the Pacific en route to the Middle East.

Read our recent report about the perfect storm involving three U.S. Navy aircraft carriers that highlights the strain on the fleet amid an ongoing war in the Middle East and tensions in Asia.

Note: Positions are general approximations.

Contact the author: ian.ellis-jones@teamrecurrent.io