NEWS

US Secretary of State of Marco Rubio recalled the long-shared history between the US and Europe at this year’s Munich Security Conference, as he made it clear that Washington does not plan on abandoning the transatlantic alliance.

Five European countries say findings ‘conclusively’ confirm the deadly toxin in the Russian opposition leader’s body as Moscow calls it Western propaganda.

Five European countries – the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands – have accused Russia of poisoning and killing opposition leader Alexey Navalny in 2024 based on lab results from a sample taken from his body.

The five governments said in a statement on Saturday that tissue samples “conclusively” confirmed the lethal toxin epibatidine. The poison is found in wild dart frogs from South America.

“The UK, Sweden, France, Germany and the Netherlands are confident that Alexey Navalny was poisoned with a lethal toxin,” the statement issued during the Munich Security Conference said.

Russia had “the means, motive, and opportunity to administer this poison”, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office added in a statement.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told state-run RIA Novosti news agency she’ll comment once the test results are publicly presented – something she noted has not yet been done.

The five countries said they’re reporting Russia to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons for a breach of the Chemical Weapons Convention. There was no immediate comment from the organisation.

Navalny, who crusaded against official corruption and staged anti-Kremlin protests as President Vladimir Putin’s fiercest foe, died in an Arctic penal colony on February 16, 2024, while serving a 19-year sentence he called politically motivated.

Epibatidine is found naturally in dart frogs and can also be manufactured in a lab, something European scientists suspect was the case in the alleged poisoning of Navalny.

The poison works by causing shortness of breath, convulsions, seizures and a slowed heart rate and can kill on contact.

The five countries said Russia needs to be held accountable for its “repeated violations” of the convention.

British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper met Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, at the Munich Security Conference. She said the new findings are “shining a light on the Kremlin’s barbaric plot to silence his voice”.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot wrote on X the alleged poisoning shows “Vladimir Putin is prepared to use biological weapons against his own people in order to remain in power.”

The Russian government has repeatedly denied any involvement in Navalny’s death. Authorities said he became ill after a walk and died from natural causes.

“Once there are test results – once there are formulas for the substances – there will be a comment. Without this, all talk and statements are just information leaks aimed at distracting attention from the West’s pressing problems,” said Zakharova.

‘Science-proven fact’?

It’s unclear how the samples from Navalny’s body were obtained or where they were assessed. Cooper told reporters “UK scientists worked with our European partners to pursue the truth” on Navalny’s death.

Navalnaya said the “murder” of her husband is now a “science-proven fact”.

“Two years ago, I came on stage here and said that it was Vladimir Putin who killed my husband,” Navalnaya said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

“I was, of course, certain that it was a murder, … but back then, it was just words. But today these words have become science-proven fact,” Navalnaya added.

Navalny was the previous target of a nerve agent poisoning in 2020 that he blamed on the Kremlin.

He was flown to Germany for treatment, and when he returned to Russia five months later, he was immediately arrested and imprisoned for the remaining three years of his life.

The UK held a ‌public inquiry into the poisoning in Britain of Russian double agent Sergey Skripal in 2018. It concluded last year that Putin must have ordered the Novichok nerve agent attack. The Kremlin has denied involvement.

Russia also denied poisoning Alexander Litvinenko, a former Russian agent-turned-Kremlin critic who died in London in 2006 after ingesting the radioactive isotope polonium-210. A British inquiry concluded that two Russian agents killed Litvinenko.

Captain Aiden Markram hits an unbeaten 86 in seven-wicket defeat of New Zealand in Ahmedabad.

South Africa are on the brink of reaching the Twenty20 World Cup’s Super Eight stage after captain Aiden Markram’s storming half-century led them to a dominant seven-wicket victory over New ⁠Zealand, securing their third straight Group D win.

New Zealand on Saturday suffered their first loss in the campaign after they posted 175-7 as South Africa’s Marco Jansen took four wickets.

In response, opener Markram hit four ⁠sixes and eight boundaries in his unbeaten knock of 86 off 44 balls, the highest by a South African captain in the tournament’s history, helping his team reach 178-3 with 17 balls to spare.

Last edition’s finalists South Africa chose to bowl first in Ahmedabad, India, and it immediately paid off as player of the match Jansen (4-40) dismissed most ‌of New Zealand’s top order by the seventh over.

Finn Allen (31 off 17 balls) tried to mitigate the damage after Tim Seifert and Rachin Ravindra fell to Jansen. But Jansen got Allen caught at mid-off in the sixth over, leaving New Zealand struggling at 58-3.

Mark Chapman (48) and Daryl Mitchell (32) turned things around with a 74-run partnership for the fifth wicket until Jansen got Chapman caught by Ryan Rickelton at backward point in the 14th.

New Zealand scored only 17 runs in the next four overs until James ⁠Neesham’s unbeaten 23 off 15 balls got them to a fighting total.

Markram’s magic seals the deal for South Africa

Chasing 176, South Africa got off to a fast start with Markram hitting three sixes and five boundaries to steer his team to 62-0 in four overs.

Losing fellow opener Quinton de Kock (20) did not affect Markram, who hit Mitchell Santner for a ⁠six down long-on to reach his half-century in just 19 balls. By the time Rickelton (21) fell in the eighth over, South Africa had already crossed ⁠the 100-run mark.

With the required run rate falling below six per over, Markram ⁠did not hit a single boundary in the next seven overs and focused on rotating the strike, getting South Africa within 28 runs of victory with 30 balls left.

“It’s about managing it through the right phases, I guess, but up front, you’ve seen how teams are ‌taking on the powerplay and we’d be silly not to try that. It’s not always going to come off, but when it does, … we can get ahead of the game,” Markram said.

David Miller, who scored an ‌unbeaten ‌24, cleared the mid-wicket boundary to bring up the winning runs.

South Africa will conclude their group campaign against the United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, a day after New Zealand play Canada.

Operation Hawkeye has killed and captured more than 50 ISIL fighters after hitting about 100 targets.

United States forces have carried out a series of strikes against ISIL (ISIS) targets in Syria in retaliation for last year’s killing of two of its soldiers and an interpreter.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement on Saturday that it attacked more than 30 ISIL targets in Syria between February 3 and 12, hitting the armed group’s infrastructure and weapons storage facilities with “precision munitions”.

CENTCOM said it launched the most recent attacks to “sustain relentless military pressure on remnants from the terrorist network”.

ISIL attacked US and Syrian forces near the historic city of Palmyra in December, killing Sergeant Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar, Sergeant William Nathaniel Howard, and Ayad Mansoor Sakat, identified as an American civilian interpreter.

Launched after the killings, Operation Hawkeye has killed and captured more than 50 fighters and hit about 100 ISIL infrastructure targets over the past two months, said CENTCOM.

The US military on Friday completed the transfer of thousands of ISIL detainees from Syria to Iraq, where they are expected to stand trial.

The prisoners were sent to Iraq at the request of Baghdad in a move welcomed by the US-led coalition that had for years fought against the armed group.

In other developments, the Syrian Ministry of Defence confirmed that government forces took control of the al-Tanf military base in the east of the country, which was run for years by US troops fighting ISIL.

The US-led coalition worked alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the battle that led to ISIL’s territorial defeat in Syria in 2019.

However, Washington has now drawn close to Syria’s new authorities, recently saying that the purpose of its alliance with the SDF was largely over.

The US withdrawal from al-Tanf comes as Damascus seeks to extend its control over all of Syria.

Vinicius Jr strikes twice ⁠from ⁠the penalty spot as Madrid move provisionally above Barcelona, who play Girona on Monday.

Vinicius Junior scored two penalties as Real Madrid moved top of La Liga with a 4-1 win over Real Sociedad, despite missing superstar Kylian Mbappe.

Mbappe watched from the substitutes’ bench on Saturday after missing some team training sessions during the week with discomfort in his left knee.

Madrid coach Alvaro Arbeloa said on Friday that he was able to play, but evidently, he did not want to rush his star goal-scorer.

Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, out with a hamstring injury, watched as Madrid produced an assured team performance to end the visitors’ 11-game unbeaten run across all competitions, and move two points clear of Barcelona before the defending champions visit Girona on Monday.

Perhaps Tuesday’s team dinner at a fancy restaurant paid for by Mbappe and Vinicius helped focus the players before facing Benfica in the Champions League playoffs next week.

Gonzalo Garcia opened the scoring with a slight touch to Trent Alexander-Arnold’s cross in the fifth minute. However, it was to be a largely frustrating game for the young attacker, who failed to make more of other good opportunities.

Dean Huijsen conceded a penalty for bringing down Yangel Herrera, and Mikel Oyarzabal duly equalised from the spot with a hard, high, centrally-placed shot in the 21st.

Referee Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso awarded another penalty at the other end four minutes later, when Jon Aramburu caught Vinicius’s ankle, bringing him down. The Brazilian dusted himself off to score from the spot in the 25th minute.

Madrid captain Fede Valverde gratefully scored the third in the 31st after being left too much space at the edge of the penalty box. It was Valverde’s first goal of the season.

Garcia should have scored again before the break, when Valverde set him up for what looked like a simple tap-in, but Vinicius made it 4-1 with his second spot kick after the break, awarded after Aramburu was again penalised for bringing him down.

Dani Carvajal made his long-awaited return around the hour mark, when he replaced Alexander-Arnold for his first league appearance since Madrid’s 2-1 loss to Barcelona in October.

Vinicius thought he had scored a hat-trick when he headed in a free kick in the 90th minute, only for it to be ruled out for offside.

Elsewhere in La Liga on Saturday, Borja Iglesias scored in stoppage time, after having another seemingly good goal ruled out through VAR, to salvage a 2-2 draw for Celta Vigo at Espanyol.

A rueful Iglesias shook his head and smiled after having a 77th-minute goal disallowed when a long check determined there had been an offside infringement.

His frustrations grew when Ramon Terrats pulled the ball back for fellow substitute Tyrhys Dolan to score what he thought was the winner for Espanyol in the 86th minute.

But Iglesias equalised in the third minute of stoppage time when Pablo Duran set him up with his heel after a good run from Sergio Carreira.

Espanyol remained sixth, and Celta a point behind in seventh.

Also on Saturday, Getafe held on to upset visiting Villarreal 2-1, and the 10-man Sevilla drew with Alaves 1-1 in a duel between two strugglers.

‘Illiberal’ PM, endorsed by ally Trump this week, to receive US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says his country should fear the European Union more than Russia while promising to clear away the EU’s “oppressive machinery” before what looks will be heated parliamentary elections.

Delivering his annual state-of-the-nation speech on Saturday, Orban pledged to push out “the foreign influence that limits our sovereignty together with its agents” as the opposition Tisza Party maintains an 8 to 12 percentage point lead over Orban’s ruling Fidesz party eight weeks from the April 12 elections.

“Fear-mongering about [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is primitive and unserious. Brussels, however, is a palpable reality and a source of imminent danger,” said the 62-year-old leader, who compared the EU to the repressive Soviet regime that dominated Hungary for decades last century.

Since returning to power for a second time in 2010, Orban has waged a campaign against “pseudo-civil organisations”, “bought journalists”, judges and politicians in his drive to build what he calls an “illiberal state”.

His crackdown on immigration has provided a blueprint for right-wing leaders, such as United States President Donald Trump.

‘War or peace’?

In Saturday’s speech, Orban signalled his work of clearing liberal forces from the country is only “half-done”, noting that Trump, who is backing him to win the upcoming vote, “rebelled against the liberals’ global-scale business, media and political network, thereby improving our chances as well”.

On Friday, Trump posted a new endorsement of Orban on his Truth Social platform, saying he’s a “truly strong and powerful leader with a proven track record of delivering phenomenal results”.

The US president’s comments came as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares to visit Hungary on Sunday. Rubio will fly in from the Munich Security Conference in Germany with a stopover in Slovakia for talks with nationalist Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Orban, who has cultivated warm relations with Putin during his current stretch in power, this week cast the April elections as a stark choice between “war or peace”, warning in a Facebook post that Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party would drag the country into the conflict raging next door in Ukraine.

The prime minister has doubled down on his strategy of portraying Magyar as a “Brussels puppet” with billboards depicting him saying “yes” to a demand for “Money for Ukraine!” from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Emergency teams intentionally triggered an avalanche near a Chamonix ski resort as a safety precaution. Three skiers were killed in the French Alps after an avalanche struck on Friday. Several major ski resorts were forced to shut down as avalanche risk levels surged across the Alps.

Palestinian Columbia protester Leqaa Kordia says she was chained to a hospital bed in “dehumanising” conditions after having a seizure in ICE custody and was kept from her lawyers and family for days. Advocates say authorities are going to “extraordinary lengths” to detain her.

Tehran, Iran – Iran and the United States are presenting clashing views before expected talks as diaspora Iranians rally across the world to demand action after thousands were killed during last month’s nationwide protests.

Amid reports that a second round of mediated talks may take place over the coming days, Washington has maintained it wants to limit Iran’s missile programme and end all its nuclear enrichment. Iran has consistently rejected both demands, saying it could dilute highly enriched uranium – all said to be buried under rubble after being bombed by the US in June – in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

US President Donald Trump said at the White House on Friday that he is sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, adding that “regime change” in Iran would be the “best thing that could happen”.

Speaking at a conference in Tehran on Saturday aimed at attracting regional investment for railroad projects, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian thanked the leaders of Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and others for mediating to prevent a US military attack.

“All of these countries are working so that we can resolve our own problems with peace and calm, and we are able to do this. We do not need a custodian,” Pezeshkian said, warning that a war would impact the entire Middle East.

Major rallies in US, Europe

A large number of Iranians abroad who are opposed to the theocratic establishment governing Iran since a 1979 revolution participated in rallies across the world on Saturday to demand an end to religious rule.

Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s US-backed shah who was deposed in the revolution, called on Iranians living abroad to be part of a “global day of action” aimed at “taking Iran back” from the Islamic Republic. He also addressed the Munich Security Conference in Germany and met with leaders such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior US Senator Lindsey Graham.

The three main cities designated for the protests were Munich, Los Angeles and Toronto. Iranians also marched in cities in Australia, including Sydney and Melbourne.

A similar rally last month in Toronto saw more than150,000 people in attendance and no adverse incidents, according to city police. About 100,000 people registered early to attend the Munich rally on Saturday.

The rallies are some of the largest ever held by the Iranian diaspora and the biggest since demonstrations in solidarity with the deadly 2022-2023 nationwide protests in Iran, triggered by the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, 22, for allegedly wearing the mandatory hijab for women improperly.

The latest protests were held days after the Iranian establishment organised demonstrations and burned the flags of Israel and the US to mark the 47th anniversary of the 1979 revolution.

“They killed my innocent girl for a few strands of hair and nobody was held accountable, but now they record women with bare heads and so-called unconventional attire in their official ceremonies and nobody yells that Islam is in danger,” Amini’s father wrote in an Instagram story after state television interviewed a pro-establishment woman without a hijab.

Since the killing of thousands of protesters last month, mostly carried out on the nights of January 8-9, similar rallies have been held to raise awareness in dozens of cities across the globe, including The Hague, Zurich, Rome, Budapest and Tokyo.

The United Nations and international human rights organisations said they documented widespread use of lethal force by state forces against peaceful protesters. But the Iranian government rejected all their allegations, claiming “terrorists” and “rioters” armed and funded by the US and Israel were behind the killings across Iran.

Families united in grief, strength

From Kuhchenar county in southern Iran’s Fars province to central Arak and Mashhad in the northeast, families continue to release footage online to commemorate their loved ones killed during the demonstrations.

Behesht-e Zahra, a cemetery in Tehran, was crowded on Friday as people gathered in solidarity with multiple families holding mourning ceremonies to mark “chehelom”, or 40 days since the killing of their loved ones.

Bereaved relatives somberly clapped, played music and showed the “victory” sign in an attempt to express pride, strength and defiance despite their losses.

Among those remembered were Ayda Heydari, 21, a medical student, and Zahra “Raha” Behloulipour, who attended Tehran University. Both were shot and killed with multiple live rounds in separate incidents.

The state-run Mehr news agency reported Heydari was “a victim of Mossad agents in recent riots” and released a short clip of an interview with her family. Heydari’s mother said her daughter was not a “munafiq”, a term the Islamic Republic uses to describe dissidents.

Mohammad-Hossein Omid, head of Tehran University, last week told the semiofficial ISNA news agency that “most” of the people taking part in the nationwide demonstrations were “protesters not terrorists”.

Concerns for prisoners

The Iranian judiciary confirmed on Saturday that a number of senior reformist politicians arrested last week for criticising the establishment were released on bail while others remained behind bars to face previous charges.

Vahid Shalchi, a deputy science minister, cited judiciary officials as saying “a considerable” number of arrested students will be released soon but did not say how many are being held.

Tens of thousands of people have been arrested during and after the protests, and human rights organisations said some are in immediate danger of being executed – allegations the Iranian judiciary has rejected.

Amnesty International said 18-year-old wrestling champion Saleh Mohammadi has been sentenced to public execution in Qom after being forced to make confessions about being involved in the death of a security agent.

Mai Sato – UN special rapporteur on Iran, who previously said more than 20,000 civilians may have been killed during the demonstrations – said three other people face execution and “What is happening now is not new.”

“The same patterns documented in those individual cases are being replicated on a mass scale after the nationwide protests,” she said.

A specific casualty toll from the demonstrations is unknown as information remains extremely limited because of ongoing heavy internet filtering.

U.S. Marine Corps legacy F/A-18C/D Hornets are in line to add air-to-air optimized versions of the 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rocket to their arsenal. This will give the jets an important, lower-cost boost in their ability to take down drones, as well as certain cruise missiles. APKWS II has already become a principal air-to-air counter-drone weapon for the U.S. force, which began using the rockets in this way on F-16 Vipers back in 2024, and has now extended the capability to the F-15E Strike Eagle and A-10 Warthog.

The recently released 2026 Marine Corps Aviation Plan highlighted a “high-density low-cost counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS)/cruise missile capability” as a top funding priority for the service’s F/A-18C/D fleet. The Marines currently have some 125 legacy Hornets in service, which have been receiving other key upgrades and additions to their arsenal in recent years to help ensure their relevance ahead of their expected retirement around the end of the decade.

“The Legacy Hornet continues to generate increased lethality, relevance, and survivability through its final fit,” a Marine Corps spokesperson told TWZ when asked for more information. “Addressing the C-UAS and Cruise missile capability, the F/A-18 has a previously funded, U.S.C. Title X-compliant requirement to incorporate the APKWS in an air-to-air mode and LAU-115/LAU-127 [missile launch rails] to integrate with the AIM-9X.”

Marine legacy Hornets already have the ability to employ the AIM-9X Sidewinder, so it is unclear exactly what changes are being made in this regard, and TWZ has reached back out for details. It is possible that this could entail work to increase the total number of AIM-9Xs the jets can carry at once. The U.S. Navy pursued a similar crash upgrade program for its F/A-18E/F Super Hornets back in 2024 in response to an urgent need for increased capacity to shoot down drones being employed by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.

The decision to integrate the air-to-air APKWS II capability onto Marine F/A-18C/Ds is more clear cut, and is a logical development. The Air Force has already proven that the rockets are capable anti-air weapons against drones in real combat, which TWZ was first to report. The service initially disclosed that it was experimenting with using APKWS II in this role back in 2019. This is a capability that may also now be in service in Ukraine on that country’s second-hand F-16s, and could be set to appear elsewhere globally. The laser-guided rockets have separately demonstrated their ability to knock down drones when used as surface-to-air weapons in the course of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

APKWS II was originally designed as an air-to-surface weapon, and Marine legacy Hornets can already employ them in this mode. The rockets also have a demonstrated surface-to-surface capability. Each one of the rockets has three main parts: a 70mm rocket motor at the rear, one of several standardized warhead options at the front, and a laser guidance section in between.

APKWS, The Innovation Continues

The air-to-air optimized variant, designated the AGR-20F and also referred to as the Fixed Wing, Air Launched, Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems Ordnance (FALCO), incorporates a proximity fuze and changes to the munition’s guidance and sensing algorithms.

In the air-to-air role, APKWS II offers valuable cost and magazine depth benefits. The unit cost for the APKWS II guidance section has historically been between $15,000 and $20,000. 70mm rocket motors run in the $1,000 to $2,000 range. The price point for warheads fluctuates more widely, given the breadth of options available, as you can read about more here. By comparison, current generation AIM-9Xs each cost around $450,000, while the latest versions of the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) have price tags around $1 million.

For tactical jets like the Marine Corps’ legacy Hornets, APKWS II rockets also come loaded in seven-shot pods. At most, an F/A-18C/D can carry up to 12 traditional air-to-air missiles at once, spread across its wingtip, underwing, and intake stations. However, many of those stations are often taken up by range-extending drop tanks and/or podded sensors. Substituting just one seven-shot pod for a single air-to-air missile would give a jet six more engagement opportunities during a sortie. Multiple pods can also be carried on certain pylons, further increasing the aircraft’s magazine depth.

U.S. operations in recent years against the Houthis in Yemen, as well as in the defense of Israel from Iranian drone and missile attacks, have underscored the importance of more total anti-air capacity, as well as capability. Complex attacks involving large volumes of disparate threats present a real danger of simply overwhelming defenders. This was made clear during Iran’s strikes on Israel in April 2024, when American fighters had to land to rearm and refuel after running out of missiles, all while threats were still passing overhead. In that instance, Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle crews had also unsuccessfully attempted to down Iranian drones with Laser Joint Direct Attack Munition (LJDAM) precision-guided bombs – something else TWZ was first to report – and their aircraft’s built-in 20mm M61 Vulcan cannon.

The specific pairing of air-to-air optimized versions of APKWS II with Marine legacy Hornets will also benefit from the new AN/APG-79(V)4 radars that those aircraft have been receiving in recent years. The APG-79(V)4 is an active electronically scanned array (AESA) type that can ‘see’ further, scan faster, and spot and track targets, even smaller ones, with greater accuracy compared to the previous APG-73 type on the Marine jets.

In their current form, FALCO rockets still have to be guided to their target via laser. This, in turn, requires the active lazing of that target throughout the entire engagement cycle, either by aircraft launching the rocket or another platform. This imposes limits on how fast a launch platform can move on from engaging one target to the next. BAE Systems, the APKWS II’s prime contractor, is now working on a new dual-mode guidance system that adds in an imaging infrared seeker. What this will allow for has been described as a pseudo-fire-and-forget capability, as the rocket would still have to be cued to the target initially via laser.

It should also be stressed that the APKWS II is not a dogfighting weapon. The drones and subsonic cruise missiles that the rockets are capable of engaging are relatively steady, non-reactionary, low-performance targets.

Still, APKWS II has clearly emerged as a valuable, if not increasingly critical, lower-cost companion to traditional air-to-air missiles. As already noted, other countries are beginning to at least take notice. For instance, consideration is being given to adding them to the arsenal of the Eurofighter Typhoon.

More platforms are likely to gain this capability in the future. Given the Navy’s own experiences in operations in and around the Red Sea against the Houthis, it is increasingly curious that there has been no announcement of adding air-to-air versions of the APKWS II to the arsenal available for that service’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. The discrepancy is even more pronounced now in light of the Marine Corps’ plans for its legacy Hornets.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The decision to send the Ford Carrier Strike Group (CSG) from the Caribbean to the Middle East was made after the Navy’s top officer said he would give “push back” against such an order over concerns about the welfare of the crew and the condition of the ship after being deployed for so long. The carrier departed Norfolk last June for the Mediterranean. It was later dispatched to the Caribbean last October by President Donald Trump to take part in a mission that ultimately resulted in the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Trump’s new deployment order for the Ford came as he is considering whether to attack Iran amid ongoing negotiations and after sending the Abraham Lincoln CSG to U.S. Central Command area of operations.

“I think the Ford, from its capability perspective, would be an invaluable option for any military thing the president wants to do,” Adm. Daryl Caudle, the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), told a small group of reporters, including from The War Zone, last month at the Surface Navy Association’s (SNA) annual symposium. “But if it requires an extension, it’s going to get some push back from the CNO. And I will see if there is something else I can do.”

Caudle didn’t provide any specifics about what actions he would take to forestall an extension.

Regardless, the order to send the Ford CSG to the Middle East will extend its time away from its homeport even further. The ship won’t even get to the region until near the end of this month and it’s unclear how long it will be needed there, although Trump has mentioned something of a loose timeline.

“I guess over the next month, something like that,” Trump said Thursday in response to a question about his timeline for striking a deal with Iran on its nuclear program. “It should happen quickly. They should agree very quickly.”

There is also a chance that the Ford could be ordered to turn around should a deal be reached with Iran.

Trump also said it would be “very traumatic” for Iran should no deal be reached.

On Friday, Trump gave reporters his rationale for ordering the Ford to the Middle East.

“We’ll need it if we don’t make a deal,” the U.S. president told reporters.

“The strike group’s current deployment has already been extended once, and its sailors were expecting to come home in early March,” The New York Times, which was first to report that the Ford was ordered to the Middle East, noted. “The new delay will further jeopardize the Ford’s scheduled dry dock period in Virginia, where major upgrades and repairs have been planned.”

It is publicly unknown what discussions the CNO had with senior administration and Pentagon officials and whether he raised any objections or sought alternatives to keeping the Ford at sea longer than anticipated. We have reached out to his office and will update this story with any details provided. We also reached out to the White House and Joint Chiefs of Staff, which referred us to the CNO’s office.

At the SNA conference, Caudle emphasized that there is a price to be paid for the strike group after being away from homeport for more than 200 days under often intense conditions. That was almost exactly a month ago.

“I am a big non-fan of extensions, and because they do have significant impact,” Caudle explained. “Number one, I’m a sailors-first CNO. People want to have some type of certainty that they’re going to do a seven-month deployment.”

Beyond affecting people, extensions also have a detrimental impact on the ship in addition to its previously noted dry dock schedule.

“So now, when the ship comes back, we expected the ship to be in this level of state in which it was used during that seven-month deployment, when it goes eight, nine-plus months, those critical components that we weren’t expecting to repair are now on the table,” Caudle pointed out. “The work package grows, so that’s disruptive.”

In addition to the maintenance issues Caudle brought up at the SNA conference, the Ford also is also plagued by sewage issues.

You can read more about how detrimental deferred maintenance is to carriers — or any U.S. Navy warship for that matter — that get their deployments extended in our deep dive here.

It is not unusual for there to be two carriers deployed to the Middle East region. For instance, a year ago, the U.S. Navy had both the USS Harry S. Truman and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carriers in the Middle East at the same time, engaged in combat operations against Yemen-based Houthi rebels. However, the Navy has 10 active carriers after the Nimitz, the service’s oldest, returned to port in December ahead of a scheduled decommissioning. There are scheduling and logistical support limits to how many can be out at sea at the same time without massive disruptions down the line.

The USS Eisenhower, the last carrier to make an extended deployment, has seen its planned maintenance extended for a half year and counting as a result of the additional strain of being away from its home port for so long. The Navy’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget shows that work on the ship was supposed to have been completed last July, but it is still unfinished. The lack of availability reverberates across the rest of the fleet. That in turn limits the options commanders have when planning or preparing for contingencies and puts the overall carrier availability plan out of whack.

As for the rest of the fleet, three other carriers are in various maintenance periods taking them out of action for extended periods. In addition, the USS George Washington is forward deployed to Japan, two carriers are preparing for deployment and two are in post-deployment mode.

The move to send the Ford to the Middle East comes amid a growing buildup of forces ahead of a potential conflict with Iran. In addition to the Ford, the Pentagon is also dispatching a peculiarly small number of Air Force tactical aircraft to the Middle East, joining a limited number of aircraft already there on land and sea.

In addition to the Lincoln, there are also at least nine other warships in the region, including five Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers. Submarines are also there, but their presence is not disclosed, and there are more than 30,000 troops on bases around the Middle East.

During the first week of February, three U.S. Navy ships transited the Malacca Strait northbound with little fanfare, entering the Indian Ocean.

The trap was set. Expeditionary Sea Base USS Miguel Keith (ESB 5), embarked with U.S. special forces, and destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG… pic.twitter.com/HTVXqTCV4f

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) February 11, 2026

Another CSG, with its embarked tactical aircraft and Aegis-equipped escorts, would certainly bolster America’s firepower in the Middle East. As we have frequently pointed out, even with the jets that are there and those arriving, there is not enough tactical airpower there now for a major sustained operation. A second CSG would provide significant help.

It remains unknown what orders Trump will give or when, but a second carrier strike group in the region gives him more options.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

A deadly exchange of drone strikes has killed one person in Ukraine and one in Russia and cast doubts on the prospects of a ceasefire before another round of negotiations to end the war next week.

News of the deaths comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio signalled hurdles to reaching an agreement in Geneva as the conflict is about to enter its fifth year.

Zelenskyy told world leaders at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday while he hopes “substantive” progress will be reached during the trilateral meeting next week, it often feels like the two sides “are talking about different things” in negotiations. 

“The Americans often return to the topic of concessions, and too often those concessions are discussed only in the context of Ukraine, not Russia,” Zelenskyy said.

Rubio said it’s unclear if Moscow truly wants to make a peace deal.

“We don’t know if the Russians are serious about ending the war,” he said before the same Munich event. “We’re going to continue to test it.”

Among the most contentious issues in the negotiations is Russia’s demand for a full withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the remaining parts of Ukraine’s eastern region of Donetsk that it still controls.

Ukraine has rejected a unilateral pullback and wants Western security guarantees to deter Russia from relaunching its invasion if a ceasefire is reached.

Rubio did not attend a Ukraine-focused meeting with European and NATO leaders held on the sidelines of the first day of the Munich conference on Friday, citing scheduling issues.

In Munich on Saturday, Zelenskyy insisted Russia should not get away with its attack on Ukraine. He said he hoped the United States would stay involved in the peace negotiations and European countries would deepen their involvement.

Dutch Foreign Minister David van Weel told Al Jazeera while US President Donald Trump should be credited with moving talks forward, he should put more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin instead of Zelenskyy.

“Putin has shown no goodwill to come to the table and make a serious deal. The Ukrainians are ready,” van Weel said.

Last week, Zelenskyy said the US had given the warring parties a June deadline to reach a deal, although Trump’s previous ultimatums have not resulted in a breakthrough.

Two previous rounds of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, led by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reportedly focused on military issues such as a possible buffer zone and ceasefire monitoring.

Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of civilians have been killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, according to many estimates, making the war Europe’s deadliest since World War II.

Russia ⁠is ⁠suffering “crazy losses” in Ukraine with about 65,000 soldiers killed on the battlefield ⁠over the last two months, NATO ⁠Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the conference.

Separately, ‌Rutte told a media roundtable the NATO alliance is strong enough that Russia would not ⁠currently try to attack it. “We ⁠will win every fight with Russia if they ⁠attack us now, and we ⁠have to ⁠make sure in two, four, six years that same ‌is still the case.”

Among the latest casualties was an elderly woman killed on Saturday when a Russian drone hit a residential building in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said.

On Wednesday, Russian strikes also killed three children, including two-year-old twins and their father in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

In January alone, Russia launched more than 6,000 drone attacks against Ukraine, according to Zelenskyy. But he added Ukraine will soon produce enough interceptors to make Russia’s Iran-made Shahed drones “meaningless”.

He also told the Munich conference that every power plant in Ukraine has been damaged in Russian attacks.

In Russia, a civilian was killed in a Ukrainian drone strike on a car in the border region of Bryansk, Governor Alexander Bogomaz said.

The attacks came a day after a Ukrainian missile strike on the Russian city of Belgorod near the border with Ukraine killed two people and wounded five, according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Gladkov earlier said the attack also caused serious damage to energy facilities and electricity, heating and water supplies were cut off. Three apartment buildings in the city sustained damage, he said.

Ukrainian member of parliament Oleksiy Goncharenko, meanwhile, accused Moscow of launching “energy terror” with attacks on electricity facilities in the heart of winter.

“I can’t call it any other way because when it is minus 20 Celsius in Kyiv and you don’t have heating, you don’t have electricity in your apartment, you’re just freezing and that is awful,” Goncharenko told Al Jazeera in Munich.

“I think it’s time for the United States to put real pressure on Russia. Yes, they are at the table, but it’s time to put real pressure to make them have real negotiations, because what we have today is not real negotiations.”

The U.S. Air Force is exploring new ways to protect aerial refueling tankers and other high-value support aircraft by physically defeating incoming threats rather than trying to jam them or otherwise throw them off course. The service says a “kinetic” self-defense option could provide a valuable last line of defense against anti-air interceptors that might be resistant or even immune to certain kinds of electronic warfare attacks or decoys.

Kevin Stamey, the Air Force’s Program Executive Officer (PEO) for Mobility and the Director of the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s (AFLCMC) Mobility Directorate, talked about kinetic self-protection capability in an official interview published earlier this week. The service’s current “mobility” portfolio includes the KC-46 and KC-135 tankers and the C-130, C-17, and C-5 cargo aircraft. Aviation Week was first to report on Stamey’s remarks.

“Some technology that we are really looking at is kinetic self-protection for our high-value airborne assets,” Stamey said. “Because the threat is evolving, we are trying to develop a capability to protect the tanker that is independent of that threat.”

“We consider kinetic self-defense to be sort of a last line of protection. If all else fails and a threat somehow breaks the kill chain, we’ll still have a means to protect the tanker,” he added. “Whether it’s an IR seeker or a radar seeker, if we have a means of taking it out kinetically, we don’t have to electronically attack it or use decoys that are effective against some things, but not others.”

Stamey did not elaborate in the interview on what a “kinetic self-protection” system might entail, but a design capable of launching some type of miniature missile is one especially likely option. The Air Force has already been working on exactly this kind of capability, at least on the experimental level, for years now.

In 2015, an Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) project dubbed the Miniature Self-Defense Munition (MSDM) emerged publicly. At that time, AFRL said it was looking for an “extremely agile, highly-responsive” miniature missile with a “very-low-cost passive seeker” and overall length of around 3.3 feet (one meter). For comparison, this is roughly one-third of the length of an AIM-9X Sidewinder, and even shorter proportionally than an AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

AFRL initially hired both Raytheon and Lockheed Martin to work on the MSDM program. In 2020, Raytheon received an additional contract for what was described then as a “miniature self-defense missile.” The stated scope of work for the new deal included “research and development of a flight-test ready missile.” This all seemed very much to be a continuation of the previously announced MSDM effort, despite the slight name change. To date, Raytheon does not appear to have shown even a concept for an MSDM interceptor publicly.

It’s also worth noting that Northrop Grumman received a patent in 2017 for a kinetic aircraft protection system based around a miniature interceptor. Accompanying drawings, some of which are seen below, depicted the system installed on a conceptual “futuristic” combat aircraft. TWZ had explored the potential benefits and limitations of such a system in detail at the time.

In 2018, the U.S. Navy also put out a largely open-ended call for information about potential options for a Hard Kill Self Protection Countermeasure System (HKSPCS) for transport, tanker, and other combat support aircraft. It also suggested the system could be used on future drones. The HKSPCS notice raised the possibility of a system designed to launch a salvo of miniature, highly maneuverable interceptor missiles, and that could offer an “alternative and/or adjunct to more conventional electronic self-protection solutions.”

Other concepts for kinetic self-protection for aircraft have been put forward in the past that do not involve firing a miniature missile at another missile. In 2012, Israeli firm Rafael demonstrated what was essentially an armored vehicle hard-kill active protection system designed to be integrated onto a helicopter. For a time, at least in the 2010s, the U.S. Navy also had a program called Helicopter Active RPG Protection, which seemed centered on a similar, if not identical, concept.

Lastly, in recent years, the Air Force has been testing the ability of its KC-135 tankers to launch small drones for self-protection and a variety of other purposes. Compared to a miniature missile, an unmanned aerial system could offer valuable loitering capability, giving it different options for engaging or re-engaging incoming threats, especially if they are fired in salvos. This, in turn, could help prevent interceptors from being wasted if the target they are fired at initially is destroyed by something else first.

Magazine depth remains one of the bigger challenges facing kinetic self-protection systems for aircraft, as well as platforms down below. An installation on a larger aircraft would open up different possibilities for reloading in flight from within the fuselage. The aforementioned drone launchers that the Air Force has been testing on the KC-135 notably offer that capability through the use of standardized Common Launch Tubes (CLT), which can be loaded with a wide array of payloads.

Directed energy capabilities could also be part of the future ecosystem of self-protection capabilities, which could also help address magazine depth concerns. Laser-based directional infrared countermeasures (DIRCM) systems are already found on tankers and airlifters across the U.S. military, but are designed to blind and confuse heat-seeking missiles, rather than destroy them. They have no impact on radar-guided interceptors. Efforts to develop aerial directed energy weapons capable of destroying targets, including incoming missiles, have faced significant challenges and have yet to produce an operational capability.

DIRCM Live Fire

The Air Force has also been developing self-protection systems for tankers and other high-value aircraft contained within modified Multipoint Refueling System (MPRS) pods normally used to send gas to receivers via the probe-and-drogue method. Repurposed MPRS pods configured to provide additional airborne communications and data-sharing capabilites are also in service now.

Any kinetic self-protection would also have to be tied to sensors, including infrared search and track systems (IRST) and/or radars, to spot incoming threats, which could be moving very fast, and cue interceptors to engage them. Ever-improving networking capabilities, which are another top Air Force priority for its mobility fleets, could enable the use of a distributed sensor network spread across multiple platforms. The use of loyal wingman-type drones is another area the Air Force has already been exploring to help protect tankers, in particular.

Regardless, the Air Force has clearly identified an ongoing desire for a kinetic self-protection capability for tankers and other valuable support aircraft. Though Mobility PEO Stamey did not explicitly say it in his interview, his remarks certainly hint at concerns that work on new and improved electronic warfare capabilities and decoys are having trouble keeping up with adversaries developing and fielding ever-more capable anti-air missiles.

Weapons that use imaging infrared seekers are notably immune to radiofrequency electronic warfare jamming, as well as radar cross-section-reducing design features. They are also passive in nature, meaning that they don’t pump out signals that can alert aircraft crews to the fact that they are under attack. Increased use of infrared sensor capabilities on aircraft and as part of surface-to-air missile systems only creates further challenges when it comes to detecting threats, let alone responding to them.

Air defense systems that rely on traditional radars have their own ways of creating challenges, including just by modulating the signals they emit in unexpected ways. TWZ regularly highlights the complexities surrounding the need to constantly tune and retune electronic warfare suites as threats change and evolve. The Air Force, among others, has also been pursuing so-called cognitive electronic warfare capabilities to help speed up those processes. The absolute ‘holy grail’ of the concept would be a system capable of adapting autonomously in real-time, even right in the middle of a mission.

Questions about the right mix of active and passive defenses are also likely to be central in the Air Force’s ongoing refinement of plans for future tankers and airlifters.

“We are working on the Next Generation Air Refueling System, NGAS, as it’s effectively known. Put the finishing touches on that last year. And that was a really wide look at how we would do air refueling in the future,” Air Force Gen. John Lamontagne, head of Air Mobility Command (AMC), told TWZ and other outlets at the Air & Space Forces Association’s main annual conference last September. “When I say a wide look, looking at conventional tankers [as] we know it today, you know something like a [KC-]135 or KC-46 as is; something with a bunch of mission systems added to it, with a defense systems [sic], connectivity, intelligence and more; a business jet; a blended wing body; or a signature-managed [stealthy] tanker.”

Central to those discussions is also the expectation that future opponents, especially in high-end fights, will have much greater anti-air reach, including with missiles able to hit targets up to 1,000 miles away. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been making especially significant investments in longer-range air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles.

This, in turn, only raises the prospect that critical supporting assets like tankers will find themselves at risk, even if they are flying far from where the main fighting is occurring.

“The [kinetic self-protection] technology is necessary if we’re going to be successful in pushing tankers into what we call the weapons engagement zone,” Mobility PEO Stamey said in the interview published this week. “Our adversaries are building long-range threats specifically to push assets like our tankers further back. They believe it’s easier to target and shoot a tanker than an F-35 or F-47.”

Stamey’s comments make clear that the Air Force is still very interested in making it harder for adversaries to do that by adding kinetic self-defense systems to the mix.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Colombo, Sri Lanka — Almost 30 years ago today, India and Pakistan formed a combined cricket team to take on Sri Lanka ahead of the 1996 Cricket World Cup in an unprecedented moment of unity in the sport’s history.

The two age-old rivals put aside their differences and came together in an act of solidarity to support a fellow South Asian team, who faced the threat of match boycotts in a tournament they had battled hard to host.

India versus Pakistan is the most highly marketed fixture at every multination tournament – the World Cup, Asia Cup or Asian Games – whether it’s a men’s, women’s or Under-19 event.

Few sporting events globally carry the weight and anticipation of an India-Pakistan cricket match. So, when Pakistan’s government ordered its team not to face India at the ongoing T20 World Cup, the tournament was briefly pushed into a state of chaos.

It also left Sri Lanka, the designated host of the fixture, holding its collective breath.

A week of negotiations led to a dramatic late U-turn by the Pakistani government and the match will now take place as scheduled on Sunday at the R Premadasa International Cricket Stadium in Colombo.

But what if the boycott had gone ahead? The impact could have been catastrophic, not just for Pakistan, but also for the International Cricket Council (ICC), as well as Sri Lanka.

With the crisis seemingly averted, the island nation stands poised to reap the benefits in its financial landscape, diplomatic standing and community.

‘Massive impact’ on tourism

For a country that is still grappling with the aftermath of the economic crisis of 2022, an India-Pakistan cricket fixture at a World Cup could prove to be a godsend.

The tourism and hospitality industry was one of the hardest hit during Sri Lanka’s financial meltdown and this match will see an enormous influx of fans from India and Pakistan coming into the country.

Hotels in and around Colombo were fully booked out well ahead of the tournament but the industry braced itself for heavy losses after Pakistan threatened a boycott.

“There’s been a massive impact since the boycott was announced,” Sudarshana Pieris, who works in Sri Lanka’s hospitality sector, told Al Jazeera.

“All major hotels in Colombo were fully booked by Indian travel agencies well ahead [of the match] and once the boycott was announced, we lost almost all of those bookings,” he said.

“But after Pakistan reversed their decision, hotel room rates shot up by about 300-400 percent at five-star establishments in Colombo.”

It’s not just hotels but several other local businesses – from street vendors to high-end restaurants – who are hoping for an increased footfall and spending over the weekend.

These short trips and the experiences they offer could influence visitors to extend their stay or return to Sri Lanka on holiday, long after the game has ended, in a potential long-term benefit to the industry.

Another relatively underestimated impact of the game would be the employment opportunities it creates, albeit temporarily, in the media, event management, security and transportation industries.

Asanka Hadirampela, a freelance journalist and broadcaster currently working as a Sinhala language commentator for the World Cup, recognises the marquee match as a great opportunity from a personal standpoint.

“This is my first World Cup as a broadcaster,” Hadirampela said.

“The India-Pakistan fixture is the biggest and most-watched game of the tournament. So to get to work on such a match is exciting and I consider it a special achievement.”

A geopolitical win

The lines are always blurred between sport and politics in South Asia.

So while the financial gains are expected to be significant, the fixture’s impact on the region’s geopolitical environment cannot go amiss.

Pakistan’s boycott, too, was explicitly political, as confirmed by the country’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif when he said that they were offering support to Bangladesh after the Tigers were kicked out of the tournament by the ICC.

The reversal of Pakistan’s decision, which they said came after requests to reconsider the boycott by several regional “friends”, was steeped in politics, too.

Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake reportedly had a phone conversation with PM Sharif, urging his government to rethink their decision to boycott the game as the successful staging of this encounter would not only position Sri Lanka as a capable host of global sporting events but also reinforce its standing as a neutral mediator in a region fraught with geopolitical complexities.

Sri Lanka and Pakistan have always maintained strong diplomatic relations, which have extended to the cricket field as well.

Sri Lanka were one of the first teams to travel to Pakistan following their 10-year ostracisation from international cricket, which came as a result of a terrorist attack targeting the Sri Lankan team in March 2009.

When Al Jazeera reached out to Sri Lanka Cricket (SLC), its vice president Ravin Wickramaratne confirmed that SLC did, indeed, reach out to the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) after the boycott was announced.

“We asked them to reconsider the decision,” Wickramaratne said.

“It [boycott] would have impacted Sri Lanka economically, whether directly or indirectly.

“We have always had a good relationship with the PCB and we have always supported them, so we’re happy with their decision.”

A little over 24 hours ahead of the match in Colombo, there is a sense of palpable excitement and a growing buzz around the fixture as it returns from the brink of cancellation.

As of Saturday morning, 28,000 tickets had been sold for the game but local organisers expect a capacity crowd of 40,000 to make it into the stands.

Come Sunday, thousands more will line the streets in and around Maligawatte, the bustling Colombo suburb that houses the famous Premadasa Stadium.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has addressed European leaders at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in an address seen as more conciliatory than in previous years.

Rubio on Saturday said Washington and Europe “belong together”, adding: “We want Europe to be strong. We believe that Europe must survive.”

He also said the US under Trump wants to lead global “renewal and restoration … and that while we are prepared, if necessary, to do this alone, it is our preference and it is our hope to do this together with you, our friends here in Europe”.

Rubio’s speech on Saturday was seen as more conciliatory than remarks made by US Vice President JD Vance last year, who used his appearance at the event to attack European policies on immigration and free speech, shocking European allies.

Despite the softer tone, Rubio still criticised Europe on migration. He warned of “civilisational erasure” caused by mass migration and said it is “destabilising” the West – a line that has been frequently repeated by US officials, including the president.

Other divisions remain between the once-ironclad allies. European leaders remain bruised by Trump’s desire to take control of Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO-member Denmark.

European leaders have used the MSC as an opportunity to pledge to shoulder more of the burden of shared NATO defences. Leaders said this is essential for Europe to counter a hostile Russia, with NATO chief Mark Rutte saying “a strong Europe in a strong NATO means that the transatlantic bond will be stronger than ever.”

“This is the right time for a strong Europe,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, who stressed on Friday that the continent was “clear in the support of Ukraine” and “building its own architecture of security”.

“This Europe will be a good ally and partner for the United States of America,” the French leader said.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the conference that Europe “must be ready to fight, to do whatever it takes to protect our people, our values and our way of life,” and added that the continent should focus on decreasing “some dependencies” and focus on creating a “more European NATO”.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged a “rift” had opened up between Europe and the US, prompted by culture wars, but issued an appeal to Washington: “Let’s repair and revive transatlantic trust together.

“In the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone,” said the conservative leader, who has ramped up defence spending in the top European Union economy.

Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine is set to enter its fifth gruelling year.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has been in Munich since Friday and meeting multiple allies, was expected to address the meeting on Saturday.

No Russian officials have been invited, but Foreign Minister Wang Yi of China has been invited and will deliver a key speech.

A US official said Rubio will meet with Zelenskyy at the conference. US officials have worked for months to try to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, with little success.

At the White House on Friday, Trump urged Zelenskyy to “get moving” to end the war. “Russia wants to make a deal… He has to move,” the US leader said.

Speaking at the MSC, however, Rubio said he did not know if Russia was serious about ending its war against Ukraine.

A German government source said Merz and Rubio met at the conference on Friday and discussed “Ukraine, the status of negotiations with Russia and further support for the country, particularly in terms of military aid”.

They also discussed Europe’s role in NATO, and “Rubio praised Germany’s steps to strengthen the alliance,” the source added.

Macron said a new framework was needed to deal with “an aggressive Russia” once the fighting in Ukraine ends.

At the conference, the US secretary of state also touched on issues outside Europe.

On China, he said the US owes it to the world to manage its relations with China, even when the national interests of the two superpowers do not align. Speaking about Iran, he said President Trump’s preference is to reach a deal with Tehran, but said that’s “very hard to do”.

As rickshaw puller Anwar Pagla turned into the road leading to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) office in Gulshan, Dhaka, on the afternoon after the parliamentary election, a small commotion stirred. His rickshaw had a Bangladeshi flag fixed to one side of the hood and the BNP’s flag to the other. Pagla is an ardent supporter.

“They call me mad because I consider this party everything in my life. But it doesn’t matter. We have won and Bangladesh will now be better,” he told Al Jazeera.

Nearly two decades after it last governed, the BNP returned to power after a landslide victory in Thursday’s parliamentary election.

The Election Commission published the gazette of the members of parliament elected, a final official seal on the election process, on Saturday. The centre-right BNP’s alliance secured 212 of the 300 seats. The alliance led by its main rival, the Jamaat-e-Islami – Bangladesh’s largest religion-based party – secured 77.

Those elections came a year and a half after a nationwide protest movement ousted the country’s former leadership and saw 1,400 people killed in the streets. Bangladesh has been led by a caretaker government since Sheikh Hasina, who led the crackdown, fled the country.

The BNP’s Tarique Rahman, set to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister, greeted supporters on Friday, saying he was “grateful for the love” they had shown him. He promised throughout BNP’s campaign to restore democracy in Bangladesh.

Mahdi Amin, BNP’s election steering committee spokesperson, said Rahman pledged that, as prime minister, he would safeguard the rights and freedoms of citizens.

Thursday’s vote passed largely peacefully, and, despite alleging “inconsistencies and fabrications” during the vote count, Jamaat accepted the outcome of the election on Saturday.

BNP had recently lost its former chairperson, Khaleda Zia – Tarique Rahman’s mother and a two-time prime minister – who died on December 30.

Khaleda Zia had led the party to power in 1991 and again in 2001. Two decades later, her son has returned the BNP to government.

At the party’s Gulshan office that afternoon, BNP activist Kamal Hossain stood among a jubilant crowd. Visibly emotional, he reflected on what he described as years of repression.

“For so long, I felt the regime of Sheikh Hasina would never go,” he said. Referring to the July 2024 uprising that forced her to flee, he added: “Now people have given us this mandate. We have taken back Bangladesh.”

Hossain said the new government’s immediate priorities should be job creation and curbing inflation.

“Prices have been hurting us, and there are too many unemployed young people. The government must address this immediately,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, remained unusually quiet on Friday.

The calm was largely by design: the BNP chose not to hold victory processions.

The Jamaat head office in the capital’s Moghbazar also appeared subdued on Friday. A few supporters around the head office expressed disappointment.

“There has been engineering in the counting process, and the media has been biased against the Jamaat alliance,” said Abdus Salam, a supporter near the office. He argued that a fair process would have yielded more seats.

Others, like Germany-based Jamaat supporter Muaz Abdullah, said Jamaat’s defeat was a failure of organisation.

“In many constituencies, Jamaat didn’t run a good election campaign. They didn’t even have proper polling agents in several places,” he said.

Though the BNP and Jamaat were allies for years, they faced each other as rivals in this election. The campaign period saw sporadic violence and months of divisive online rhetoric.

Sujan Mia, a BNP activist outside the party office, struck a conciliatory tone. “We do not want enmity. We should focus on building the nation,” he said.

Rezaul Karim Rony, editor of Joban Magazine and a political analyst who closely followed the BNP’s campaign, said the party’s victory is likely to allay concerns of a lurch to the right in Bangladesh.

“Through this election, people have, in a sense, freed the country’s politics from that risk,” he argued.

However, Rony cautioned that the real test begins now.

“The challenge is to ensure good governance, law and order, and public safety – and to establish a rights-based state,” he said, describing those goals as being at the “heart of the aspirations of the 2024 mass uprising.”

Michael Kugelman, senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, said a BNP victory represents “a blow to the politics of change that have galvanised Bangladesh since the 2024 mass uprising”.

“The BNP, dynastic and long saddled with corruption allegations, reflects the principles that the Gen Z protesters rejected,” he said.

The party will now face pressure from both the public and the opposition to push beyond old political habits, Kugelman added.

“If the new government falls back on repressive or retributive politics, reform advocates will be disappointed and democratisation efforts will be set back,” he said.

The outcome might be the least disruptive for the region as a whole.

Pakistan might have preferred a Jamaat win, given the party’s historical affinity for Islamabad. But Pakistan has also had strong relations with the BNP, Kugelman pointed out, as has China.

And “India much prefers the BNP to Jamaat,” he added, noting that the BNP is no longer in alliance with Jamaat, which New Delhi believes takes positions contrary to its interests.

Back at the BNP’s office in Dhaka, however, geopolitics felt distant.

Shamsud Doha, a party leader, had brought his two grandchildren to share the moment.

“Nothing matches this feeling,” he said. “We have long suffered under autocratic rule. Now it is our time to build the nation.”

Former Philippine justice secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II also among eight current, past officials named in complaint.

Two sitting Philippine senators have been identified as “co-perpetrators” in former president Rodrigo Duterte‘s crimes against humanity trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC), documents released by prosecutors show.

Senators Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Christopher “Bong” Go are among eight current and former officials named in a document dated February 13 and posted to the court’s website late on Friday.

Duterte was arrested in the Philippines’ capital, Manila, in March 2025, and was swiftly flown to the Netherlands, where he has been held in ICC custody at The Hague. The 80-year-old insists his arrest was unlawful.

ICC prosecutors have charged him with three counts of crimes against humanity, alleging his involvement in at least 76 murders as part of his “war on drugs”.

“Duterte and his co-perpetrators shared a common plan or agreement to ‘neutralise’ alleged criminals in the Philippines [including those perceived or alleged to be associated with drug use, sale or production] through violent crimes including murder,” the prosecution document reads.

Dela Rosa, the former national police chief and enforcer of Duterte’s drug war, has previously said he believed he faced potential arrest and has been in hiding for months.

Go, re-elected in May in a landslide victory, was a key lieutenant of Duterte during both the latter’s terms as mayor of southern Davao City and as president from 2016 to 2022.

A representative of Dela Rosa said they had not yet seen the document. Go has yet to comment on the latest development.

It was not immediately clear if any of the men named in the prosecution document would face charges in court.

In a statement posted on Facebook, Kristina Conti, lawyer of several of the deceased victims’ families, noted that it’s the first time “significant details” were disclosed by the ICC to the public.

She said the inclusion of several high-ranking officials under Duterte showed that the deadly drug war under his presidency “was crafted not only to ensure implementation, but to ensure impunity”.

“The involvement of those in the investigating units, which should have acted as the killings happen, is material to the plan. This also emphasizes that the ‘war on drugs’ began in Davao,” Conti said.

Duterte is facing a four-day “confirmation of charges” hearing from February 23, in which judges will decide whether the prosecution’s allegations are strong enough to proceed to trial.

Judges have rejected arguments that the 80-year-old, who was arrested in March last year and transferred to the Netherlands the same day, was unfit to stand trial.

Go and Dela Rosa have been named as co-perpetrators in acts that took place during Duterte’s tenures as Davao mayor and president.

Former Philippine justice secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II, who served as a lawyer for Duterte in cases involving the so-called “Davao Death Squad”, is also among the eight men named.

Ross Tugade, an ICC-accredited lawyer from the Philippines, said in a post on Facebook that the inclusion of the names of former Duterte officials indicates “that the ICC has evidence” to show a “criminal structure” in the commission of the alleged crimes.

The first of three counts against Duterte concerns his alleged involvement as a co-perpetrator in 19 murders carried out between 2013 and 2016 while he was mayor of Davao City.

The second relates to 14 murders of so-called “High Value Targets” in 2016 and 2017 when Duterte was president.

The third charge covers 43 murders committed during “clearance” operations of lower-level alleged drug users or pushers.

These took place across the Philippines between 2016 and 2018, the prosecution alleged.

The ICC also on Friday allowed the addition of 500 more complainants against Duterte in the trial.

This Valentine’s Day, chocolate prices are no longer at last year’s peak, but cheap chocolate has not made a comeback, and it probably never will. Last year’s cocoa price crisis, driven by a combination of extreme heat, drought and disease in key producing regions, may have eased. But the aftertaste remains: A market that no longer behaves the way it used to, because the landscapes that grow cocoa are no longer the same. And the world’s unwitting appetite for cheap chocolate at the expense of biodiversity is part of the reason.

Cocoa is one of the most rainfall-dependent crops in the tropics, grown mainly by smallholders with few safety nets. Because cocoa production is concentrated in a handful of regions, a bad season in one place can quickly ripple across global supply. That fragility was laid bare in 2024, when the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which produce nearly 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, were hit by climate extremes that slashed harvests. Prices surged by more than 300 percent, squeezing some farmers, enriching others, and leaving consumers paying for the uncertainty.

The problem is not simply that cocoa is vulnerable. It is that we have built a cocoa economy that magnifies the vulnerability. For decades, the world has chased low prices and high output, and too often that has meant converting forest landscapes into farmland, from West Africa to parts of Latin America and Southeast Asia.

But forests are not optional. They regulate rainfall, protect soils, and create the microclimates on which cocoa depends. Full-sun cocoa farms can produce higher yields in the short term, but the sugar rush is followed by a costly crash: Depleted soils, limited protection from heat and drought that is on the increase, and little for farmers to fall back on when the monocrops fail. Yields fall, farms expand deeper into forests to compensate, and the cycle repeats.

This is why cocoa’s price volatility is not a temporary blip. It is a warning sign: We are weakening the natural systems cocoa depends on at the same moment that climate change is making harvests less reliable.

Research by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows how extreme heat undermines agriculture, reducing both the quantity and quality of crop yields and increasing pest and disease pressure. A recent study modelling cocoa under mid-century climate change finds that warming could wipe out as much as a third to half of today’s suitable cocoa area in some core producing zones, while shifting production towards new regions. Without safeguards, that transition risks trading climate stress in one place for forest loss in another. The details will vary across regions, but the implication is global: As climate change alters weather patterns, the geography of cocoa production will shift, and a stable supply will become harder to take for granted.

Unless we build resilience now, future Valentine’s Days may come with less chocolate and higher prices.

But we can eat our chocolate and keep forests too, by changing how cocoa is grown. It starts with bringing trees back to cocoa farms, reversing the damaging practices that are ultimately undermining production. Change can be made through climate-resilient agroforestry practices that rebuild shade cover, improve soil health and moisture retention, and reduce cocoa’s exposure to heat and drought. Cocoa grown under shade trees can stabilise farm conditions and support biodiversity, while producing higher-quality beans that meet premium market standards, giving farmers stronger incentives to maintain tree cover rather than clear more land.

Sceptics argue that growing cocoa with trees means accepting lower yields. But when it comes to unsustainable practices, high productivity today comes with a high cost tomorrow. A farm that exhausts its soil, loses shade, is exposed to drought, and needs ever more chemical inputs to maintain production is not a success story. It is a trap.

In a changing climate, the point is not how much cocoa a farm can produce in a year, but how reliably it can produce year after year. That requires resilience built into the landscape, now more than ever: More tree cover, healthier soils, and diversified farm systems that protect livelihoods when climate extremes hit.

This is not theoretical. It is already happening.

In Ecuador’s Amazon province of Napo, a project financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and supported with technical assistance from the FAO has helped strengthen a sustainable cocoa value chain built around the traditional Chakra agroforestry system used by Kichwa communities. Put simply, it is cocoa grown as part of a forest garden: Kichwa women known as Chakramamas help steward these farms, cultivating cocoa under shade trees alongside a diverse mix of other crops and native plants, rather than clearing land for a single crop. Recognised by FAO as a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System, the model is still expanding more than a decade on, helping Indigenous producer families earn more from premium cocoa through stronger processing, marketing, and partnerships with high-value buyers. High-end chocolatiers continue to source from Chakra producers, showing that cocoa grown alongside trees can deliver world-class quality while keeping forests standing for biodiversity, climate and land benefits.

There are more examples. In the Ivory Coast, FAO-backed efforts supported by the Green Climate Fund are already delivering results, restoring 1,084 hectares (2,679 acres) of degraded land and converting 3,527 hectares (8,715 acres) of conventional cocoa into improved agroforestry systems while reducing pressure on forests. Meanwhile, 234 farmers now have access to cocoa cooperatives, ensuring access to international fair-trade and organic certifications and a better price for their products. In Sao Tome and Principe, FAO has supported cocoa agroforestry through the GEF-funded Restoration Initiative, helping restore nearly 10,000 hectares (about 25,000 acres) of forest and improve land management across a further 23,000 hectares (about 57,000 acres). These are not boutique experiments. They are working models for stabilising supply, supporting farmer incomes, and reducing the forest loss that fuels cocoa’s growing volatility.

But projects alone will not be enough. Scaling them will take serious investment: From governments, companies, and consumers. It will also require rules that shift incentives across the entire cocoa economy, such as a new European Union law that requires cocoa and chocolate entering the EU market to be deforestation-free. By tying market access to how cocoa is grown, these rules are pushing governments, producers, and companies to rethink production models, improve traceability, and strengthen zero-deforestation cocoa systems.

Governments will also need to invest in farmer adaptation and long-term productivity, not just short-term output. That means accessible finance, practical support on farms, and policies that reward sustainable production instead of expansion into forests.

And chocolate companies need to promote resilience across their supply chains, not just chase volume. In a world of climate disruption, the cheapest cocoa is not necessarily the best bargain if it comes at the expense of farmers’ livelihoods or the ecosystems that keep cocoa viable in the years to come.

Paying farmers for chocolate that keeps forests standing is not a luxury. It is part of what makes cocoa more available and keeps farmers in business in a warming world. Chocolate is sold as a simple pleasure, but cocoa is no longer a simple crop: Its future depends on whether we treat forests and biodiversity as essential infrastructure for stable and resilient agrifood systems.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s second caption reads:

U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Lucas Keka, left, munitions operations technician assigned to the 726th Expeditionary Mission Support Squadron, and Staff Sgt. Daryc Fliginger, 726th EMSS Munitions Flight production supervisor, secure a munitions storage bunker at Chabelley Airfield, Djibouti, Aug. 25, 2023. The 726th EMSS provides security forces, satellite communications, munitions support, vehicle management, contracting, finance and logistics in support of USAF personnel in East Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Dhruv Gopinath) 

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