NEWS

Israel has held Gaza doctor Hussam Abu Safia for an entire year without charge. His son is pleading for his release, describing his father’s mistreatment in detention and recalling his refusal to abandon his patients at Kamal Adwan Hospital.

Fighting has broken out at a demonstration in the city of Latakia in Syria, killing at least three people and injuring dozens. Hundreds of people from the Alawite minority were protesting in coastal and central parts of the country, two days after a mosque was bombed in Homs.

“It’s something we have to improve. I would say at least 75% of the time or even more, it’s not even about the first contact. It’s the second phase that is the killer.

“Is it a mental thing? I hope not. If that’s in your head then it’s an issue. Personally, it’s not in my head.”

Excluding penalties, Liverpool have only scored three goals from set-pieces in the league. Their difference of minus nine is their worst in a Premier League season.

“We have defended so many set-pieces very well. But we’ve conceded too many goals like that and it hurts. We have to improve that. Training is the only way to get better at it,” Van Dijk added.

“It’s not been good enough. We all realise that. We have spoken about it. We need to turn it around. That’s why we work on it almost every training session.”

Liverpool manager Slot said: “Unfortunately we’re maybe the only team that hardly ever scores from a set-piece and, even worse, we constantly concede.

“But then, I think I said two, three or four weeks ago, we have to make sure that when things go against us – it could be a set-piece, it could be other things – we still need to find a way to win.

“In the last two games we conceded from a set-piece but we were able to win and that hasn’t happened many times this season. That’s progress for me, but it’s obvious there are more things for us to improve and this is definitely one of them.

“I think we have been unlucky in multiple situations in our set-pieces. It is 18 games now and we need to improve.”

Liverpool’s third league win in a row took them up to fourth in the table.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the United States to meet with President Donald Trump as regional turmoil approaches a boiling point amid Israel’s attacks in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria and mounting tensions with Iran.

Netanyahu is to hold talks with Trump at the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Monday as Washington pushes to complete the first phase of the Gaza truce.

The visit comes as the US continues to pursue its 20-point “peace plan” in the Palestinian enclave despite near-daily Israeli violations of the truce.

Israel is also escalating attacks in the occupied West Bank, Lebanon and Syria as Israeli officials suggest that another war with Iran is possible.

What will Netanyahu discuss with Trump, and where do US-Israel ties stand?

Al Jazeera looks at the prime minister’s trip to the US and how it may play out.

When will Netanyahu arrive?

The Israeli prime minister will arrive in the US on Sunday. However, the talks will not take place at the White House. Instead, Netanyahu will meet Trump in Florida, where the US president is spending the holidays.

The meeting between the two leaders is expected to take place on Monday.

How many times has Netanyahu visited Trump?

This will be Netanyahu’s fifth visit to the US in 10 months. The Israeli prime minister has been hosted by Trump more than any other world leader.

In February, he became the first foreign leader to visit the White House after Trump returned to the presidency.

He visited again in April and July. In September, he also met with Trump in Washington, DC, after the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

What has the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu been like so far?

Netanyahu often says Trump is the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House.

During his first term, Trump pushed US policy further in favour of Israel’s right-wing government. He moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognised and claimed Israeli sovereignty over Syria’s occupied Golan Heights and cut off funding to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

Since returning to the White House this year, Trump has shown a greater willingness to publicly disagree with Netanyahu. Still, his administration has provided unflinching support for Israel, including the decision to renew the genocidal war on Gaza in March after a brief ceasefire.

Trump joined the Israeli attack on Iran in June to the dismay of some segments of his base. And he pushed to secure the current truce in Gaza.

The US president also opposed the Israeli attack on Doha in September. And he swiftly lifted sanctions against Syria despite some apparent Israeli reservations.

The ties between the two leaders have seen some peaks and valleys. In 2020, Trump was irked when Netanyahu rushed to congratulate Joe Biden on his election victory against Trump, who has falsely insisted the election was fraudulent.

“I haven’t spoken to him [Netanyahu] since,” Trump told the Axios news site in 2021. “F*** him.”

The strong ties between the two leaders were rekindled after Trump won the presidency again in 2024 and unleashed a crackdown on Palestinian rights activists in the US.

In November, Trump formally asked Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Netanyahu, who is facing corruption charges at home.

The two leaders, however, are not in complete alignment, and cracks in their positions are showing up over issues that include Gaza, Syria and the US partnerships with Turkiye and the Gulf states.

During his US visit, Netanyahu may seek to flatter Trump and project a warm relationship with the US president to advance his agenda and signal to his political rivals in Israel that he still enjoys support from Washington.

How has Netanyahu dealt with the US since October 7, 2023?

Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Netanyahu has asked for unchecked US diplomatic and military support.

Then-President Biden travelled to Israel 11 days after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel, and he declared that support for the US ally is “vital for America’s national security”.

His “bear hug” of Netanyahu on arrival at the airport in Tel Aviv would set the stage for the US backing of Israel as it unleashed horror and destruction on Gaza, which has translated into more than $21bn in military aid and multiple vetoes at the UN Security Council over the past two years.

Netanyahu has seized on the notion that Israel is an extension of US interests and security structure. In a speech to the US Congress last year, the prime minister argued that Israel is fighting Iran indirectly in Gaza and Lebanon.

“We’re not only protecting ourselves. We’re protecting you,” he told US lawmakers.

Throughout the war, there have been countless reports that Biden and Trump have been displeased or angry with Netanyahu. But US weapons and political backing for Israel have continued to flow uninterrupted. And Netanyahu makes a point of always expressing gratitude to US presidents, even when there may be apparent tensions.

Where does the US stand on the Gaza truce?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that the top priority for the Trump administration is to complete the first stage of the Gaza ceasefire and move from mere cessation of hostilities to long-term governance, stabilisation and reconstruction of the Palestinian enclave.

Israel has been violating the ceasefire in Gaza regularly, recently killing at least six Palestinians in an attack that targeted a wedding.

But Trump, who claims to have brought peace to the Middle East for the first time in 3,000 years, has focused on broadly moving the truce forward rather than on Israel’s daily conduct.

“No one is arguing that the status quo is sustainable in the long term, nor desirable, and that’s why we have a sense of urgency about bringing phase one to its full completion,” Rubio said last week.

The top US diplomat has also suggested that there could be some flexibility when it comes to disarming Hamas under the agreement, saying the “baseline” should be ensuring that the group does not pose a threat to Israel rather than removing the guns of every fighter.

But Israel appears to be operating with a different set of priorities. Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that the country is looking to re-establish settlements in Gaza, which are illegal under international law.

He later walked back those comments but stressed that Israel would maintain a permanent military presence in the territory, which would violate the Trump plan.

Expect Gaza to be a key topic of discussion between Netanyahu and Trump.

Can a Syria agreement be reached?

Trump has literally and figuratively embraced Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa over the past year, lifting sanctions against the country and beginning security cooperation with his government’s security forces.

But Israel is pursuing its own agenda in Syria. Hours after the collapse of the government of former President Bashar al-Assad a year ago, Israel began expanding its occupation of Syria beyond the Golan Heights.

Although the new Syrian authorities stressed early on that they did not seek confrontation with Israel, the Israeli military launched a bombardment campaign against Syria’s state and military institutions.

Israeli forces have also been conducting raids in southern Syria and abducting and disappearing residents.

After the Israeli military killed 13 Syrians in an air raid last month, Trump issued a veiled criticism of Israel.

“It is very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria’s evolution into a prosperous state,” he said.

Syria and Israel were in talks earlier this year to establish a security agreement short of full diplomatic normalisation. But the negotiations appeared to collapse after Israeli leaders insisted on holding onto the land captured after al-Assad’s fall.

With Netanyahu in town, Trump will likely renew the push for a Syria-Israel agreement.

Why is Iran back in the headlines?

Netanyahu’s visit comes amid louder alarm bells in Israel about Iran rebuilding its missile capacity after their 12-day war in June.

NBC News reported last week that the Israeli prime minister will brief the US president about more potential strikes against Iran.

The pro-Israel camp in Trump’s orbit seems to be already mobilising rhetorically against Iran’s missile programme.

US Senator Lindsey Graham visited Israel this month and called Iran’s missiles a “real threat” to Israel.

“This trip is about elevating the risk ballistic missiles pose to Israel,” Graham told The Jerusalem Post.

Trump authorised strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites during the June war, which he said “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear programme.

Although there is no evidence that Iran has been weaponising its nuclear programme, fears about a possible Iranian atomic bomb were the driving public justification for the US involvement in the conflict.

So it will be hard for Netanyahu to persuade Trump to back a war against Iran, said Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

The president is portraying himself as a peacemaker and prioritising a possible confrontation with Venezuela.

“It could just as well backfire on Netanyahu,” Toossi said of the push for more strikes against Iran. But he underscored that Trump is “unpredictable”, and he has surrounded himself with pro-Israel hawks, including Rubio.

What is the state of US-Israel relations?

Despite growing dissent on the left and right of the US political spectrum, Trump’s support for Israel remains unwavering.

This month, the US Congress passed a military spending bill that includes $600m in military aid to Israel.

The Trump administration has continued to avoid even verbal criticism of Israel’s aggressive behaviour in the region, including Gaza ceasefire violations and the expansion of illegal settlements in the West Bank.

At a White House Hanukkah celebration on December 16, Trump bemoaned the growing scepticism of unconditional support for Israel in Congress, falsely likening it to anti-Semitism.

“If you go back 10, 12, 15 years ago, at the most, the strongest lobby in Washington was the Jewish lobby. It was Israel. That’s no longer true,” Trump said.

“You have to be very careful. You have a Congress in particular which is becoming anti-Semitic.”

Despite Trump’s position, analysts said the gap between the strategic priorities of the US and Israel is growing.

While Washington is pushing for economic cooperation in the Middle East, Israel is seeking “total dominance” over the region, including US partners in the Gulf, Toossi said.

“Israel is pushing this uncompromising posture and strategic objective that I think is going to come to a head more with core US interests,” Toossi told Al Jazeera.

What’s next for the US-Israel alliance?

If you drive down Independence Avenue in Washington, DC, you will likely see more Israeli than American flags displayed on the windows of congressional offices.

Despite the shifting public opinion, Israel still has overwhelming support in Congress and the White House. And although criticism of Israel is growing within the Republican base, Israel’s detractors have been pushed to the margins of the movement.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is leaving Congress; commentator Tucker Carlson is facing constant attacks and accusations of anti-Semitism; and Congressman Tom Massie is facing a Trump-backed primary challenger.

Meanwhile, Trump’s inner circle is filled with staunch Israel supporters, including Rubio, megadonor Miriam Adelson and radio show host Mark Levin.

But amid the erosion of public support, especially among young people, Israel may face a reckoning in American politics in the long term.

On the Democratic side, some of Israel’s strongest supporters in Congress are facing primary challenges from progressive candidates who are centring Palestinian rights.

The most powerful pro-Israel lobbying group, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), is increasingly becoming a toxic brand for Democrats.

On the right, the faultlines in the consensus in support of Israel are growing wider. That trend was put on display at the right-wing AmericaFest conference this month when debates raged around support for Israel, a topic that was a foregone conclusion for conservatives a few years ago.

Although the Trump administration has been pushing to codify opposition to Zionism as anti-Semitism to punish Palestinian rights supporters, Vice President JD Vance has presented a more nuanced view on the issue.

“What is actually happening is that there is a real backlash to a consensus view in American foreign policy,” Vance recently told the UnHerd website.

“I think we ought to have that conversation and not try to shut it down. Most Americans are not anti-Semitic – they’re never going to be anti-Semitic – and I think we should focus on the real debate.”

Bottom line, the currents are changing, but the US commitment to Israel remains solid – for now.

Chelsea are investigating after a bottle was thrown towards the Aston Villa bench following their 2-1 Premier League defeat at Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

After the full-time whistle, an open plastic bottle was directed at Villa’s celebrating bench, splashing staff and players with a liquid that appeared to be water.

One member of staff pointed towards the area from which the bottle came, which seemed to be a section containing both Chelsea fans and staff.

It remains unclear who was responsible. Chelsea have launched an investigation but have not commented officially at this stage.

It is also unclear whether referee Stuart Attwell and his officials saw the incident or whether it will be included in his report. BBC Sport has contacted the Football Association for comment.

Villa substitute Ollie Watkins scored twice to overturn Joao Pedro’s first-half opener for Chelsea.

Unai Emery’s side have now equalled a club record of 11 consecutive wins in all competitions and sit three points behind league leaders Arsenal in third. Chelsea are fifth before Sunday’s games.

From displaced Palestinian families struggling in the cold winter in makeshift tents in Gaza, Christmas celebrations in Ukraine amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, to the historic gathering of more than one million people in Dhaka welcoming home Bangladesh’s opposition leader Tarique Rahman after his 17-year self-imposed exile, here is a look at the week in photos.

Venezuelanalysis writer and editor Ricardo Vaz joined Sharmini Peries on theAnalysis.news to discuss the latest developments from Venezuela, including Washington’s military buildup, Caracas’ reaction and the role played by the far-right opposition.

Source: theAnalysis.news

The Balkan nation votes again as PM Albin Kurti seeks majority to break the stalemate and form a government.

Kosovo is voting to elect a new parliament for the second time in 11 months, as nationalist Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party seeks a majority to end a yearlong political deadlock.

Polls opened at 7am local time (06:00 GMT) and will close at 7pm (18:00 GMT) on Sunday, with exit polls expected soon after voting ‌ends.

The snap parliamentary vote was called after Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Self-Determination Movement (LVV) party failed to form a government despite winning the most votes at a February 9 ballot.

Failure to form a government and reopen parliament would prolong the crisis at a critical time. Lawmakers must elect a new president in April and ratify 1 billion euros ($1.2bn) in loan agreements from the European Union and ‍World Bank that expire ⁠in the coming months.

The Balkan country’s opposition parties have refused to govern with Kurti, criticising his handling of ties with Western allies and his approach to Kosovo’s ethnically divided north, where a Serb minority lives.

Despite international support, the country of 1.6 million has struggled with poverty, instability and organised crime. Kurti’s tenure, which began ‌in 2021, was the first time a Pristina government completed a full term.

To woo voters, Kurti has pledged an additional month of salary per year for public sector workers, 1 billion euros per year in capital investment and a new prosecution unit to fight organised crime. ​Opposition parties have also promised to focus on improving living standards.

Opinion polls are ‌not published in Kosovo, leaving the outcome uncertain. Many voters say they are disillusioned.

“There wouldn’t be great joy if Kurti wins, nor would there be if the opposition wins. This country needs drastic changes, and I don’t see that change ‌coming,” Edi Krasiqi, a doctor, told Reuters news agency.

Tensions with Serbia

Formerly a province of Serbia, Kosovo, whose population is almost exclusively Albanian, declared independence from Serbia in 2008 following an uprising and NATO intervention in 1999.

It has been recognised by more than 100 countries, but not by Russia, Serbia, Greece or Spain. It is seen as a potential candidate for accession to the EU.

Tensions with Serbia flared in 2023, prompting the EU to impose sanctions on Kosovo.

The bloc said this month it ‍would lift them after ethnic Serb mayors were elected in northern municipalities, but the measures likely cost Kosovo hundreds of millions of euros.

Kosovo remains one of the poorest countries in Europe. It is one of the six Western Balkan countries striving to eventually join the EU, but both Belgrade and Pristina have been told they must first normalise relations.

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania to Kapiri Mposhi, Zambia — In Dar es Salaam’s train station, hundreds of passengers sat amid piles of luggage as a listless breeze blew through the open windows. Shortly before their scheduled 3:50pm departure on the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority’s (TAZARA) Mukuba Express train, an update crackled over the tannoy: the train would be leaving two hours late.

A collective groan rippled through the crowd, and under the soaring roof of the station, pigeons darted back and forth, disappearing into holes left from rotted-out ceiling tiles. But nobody was really surprised. Given the train’s reputation for unreliable service, the passengers knew a two-hour delay for the TAZARA was practically on time.

The railway runs from Tanzania’s largest city through the country’s southern highlands and across the border into Zambia’s copper provinces, finally pulling into the town of Kapiri Mposhi some 1,860 kilometres (1,156 miles) away. It’s a journey that, according to official timetables, should take about 40 hours.

For regular passengers, it’s a cheap way to reach parts of the country that are not located near main highways. For foreign tourists, it’s a unique way to see Tanzania’s landscapes far from the bustling cities and overcrowded safari parks, provided they are not in a hurry. A first-class sleeper car all the way to Mbeya, a travel hub and border town just to the east of Zambia, surrounded by lush mountains and coffee farms, is just over $20.

This year, the railroad celebrated its 50th anniversary, but it has struggled for most of its existence, requiring foreign investment for basic upkeep and failing to haul the amount of freight it was built to carry. Inconsistent maintenance and limited investment have seen its infrastructure and cars deteriorate from decades of use.

It’s hard to determine exactly where a trip on the TAZARA will be at any given time, due to the myriad delays and breakdowns that randomise each journey. Simple derailments from poorly loaded cars and deteriorating tracks are common, and then there’s the occasional unfortunate brush with nature — in August, service was cancelled after a passenger train struck an African buffalo while passing through Tanzania’s Mwalimu Julius Nyerere National Park.

But since the beginning of 2025, the TAZARA has been plagued by more serious incidents — and fatalities — that reveal the desperate need for an overhaul of both ageing infrastructure and poor safety management. In April, two locomotives being moved from Zambia to a workshop in Mbeya for repairs derailed at a bridge in southern Tanzania, killing both drivers.

Two months later, in June, a train derailed in Zambia and was then struck by the “rescue train” dispatched to assist it. The collision killed one TAZARA employee and injured 10 staff and 19 passengers, according to a media release from the railway.

Citing “unexpected operational challenges,” passenger service was briefly suspended in early September. As it turned out, the few operational locomotives the TAZARA could field were stuck in Tanzania, after a fire damaged one of the hundreds of bridges along the track.

But big improvements for TAZARA are on the horizon, thanks to a major investment by the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), which has pledged $1.4bn to refurbish the ageing rail line over the next three years. Though the continuation of passenger service is mentioned in the agreement, construction work will necessitate some pauses to regular service as the project is completed.

Most of the money will be spent on rehabilitating the tracks, but $400m will go toward 32 new locomotives and 762 wagons, “significantly increasing freight and passenger transport capacity,” according to a TAZARA statement. In return, the Chinese state-owned corporation will receive a 30-year concession to run the TAZARA railway and recoup its investment before turning day-to-day management back over to Tanzanian and Zambian authorities.

The United Kingdom has imposed visa restrictions on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, accusing its government of failing to cooperate with its new policy on the return of undocumented migrants and those who commit criminal offences.

The UK Home Office announced the measures in a statement late on Saturday. It also said that Angola and Namibia have agreed to step up efforts to take back their citizens.

The agreements mark the first major change under sweeping reforms unveiled by Secretary of State for the Home Department Shabana Mahmood last month to make refugee status temporary and speed up the deportation of those who arrive without documents in the UK.

There was no immediate comment from the DRC, Angola or Namibia.

The Home Office said the DRC failed to meet the UK’s requirements for cooperation and has now been stripped of fast-track visa services and preferential treatment for VIPs and decision makers.

Mahmood said the UK could escalate measures to a complete halt of visas for the DRC unless cooperation rapidly improves.

“We expect countries to play by the rules. If one of their citizens has no right to be here, they must take them back,” she said.

“I thank Angola and Namibia and welcome their co-operation. Now is the time for the Democratic Republic of Congo to do the right thing. Take your citizens back or lose the privilege of entering our country.

“This is just the start of the measures I am taking to secure our border and ramp up the removal of those with no right to be here,” she added.

Prime Minister Keir Streamer’s centre-left government unveiled sweeping changes to the UK’s asylum system last month, including drastically cutting protections for refugees and their children, as part of a bid to stem the arrivals of irregular migrants that have fuelled rising anger on the far-right.

More than 39,000 people, many fleeing conflict, have arrived in the UK on small boats this year, more than for the whole of 2024 but lower than the record set in 2022, when the Conservatives were in power.

Mahmood told lawmakers that the reforms, modelled on Denmark’s strict asylum system, would discourage refugees and asylum seekers from crossing the English Channel from France on small boats.

She described the current system as “out of control and unfair”, adding that it was an “uncomfortable truth” that the government must face.

Under the reforms, refugee status will become temporary and will be reviewed every 30 months. Refugees will be forced to return to their home countries once those are deemed safe.

They will also need to wait for 20 years, instead of the current five, before they can apply for permanent residency.

The government has also said it will legislate to make it harder for irregular migrants and foreign criminals to use the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to stop deportation.

Since July last year, the UK has “removed more than 50,000 people with no right to remain”, a 23 percent increase on the previous period, and instructed diplomats to make returns a top priority, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Yvette Cooper said.

The policy has been facing criticism, however, with Mark Davies, a former adviser to the Foreign Office, calling it “shameful” and a departure from “Britain’s historic commitment to support refugees”.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn also described the policy as “draconian”, adding that it tries to “appease the most ghastly, racist right-wing forces all across Europe”, while undermining the UN Convention on Human Rights.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, urged the government to reconsider, warning the plans “will not deter” crossings, and that refugees who work hard should be able to build “secure, settled lives”.

Official figures cited by the AFP news agency showed that asylum claims in the UK are at a record high, with about 111,000 applications made in the year to June 2025.

But the number of initial positive decisions the UK authorities granted fell from 2023 to 2024.

Most asylum seekers and refugees arrive in the UK legally. Net migration reached a record high of 906,000 in the year to June 2023, before it fell to 431,000 in 2024, partly reflecting the tighter rules.

Russia has carried out drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, on the eve of a key meeting between the United States and Ukrainian leaders, killing at least two people and leaving a third of the city without heat, according to authorities.

Russian ballistic missiles and drones rocked Kyiv from the early hours of Saturday morning, when an air alert was in place for nearly 10 hours.

The attacks killed a 71-year-old man in Kyiv’s Dniprovskyi district and another person in the nearby town of Bila Tserka, according to officials. At least 32 others were wounded in Kyiv, including two children, police in Kyiv said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that during the attack, some 500 drones and 40 missiles targeted “energy facilities and civilian infrastructure”.

The Russian strikes cut power to more than a million homes in and around Kyiv, energy company DTEK said in a social media post late on Saturday.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said there was no heat in one-third of the capital, where temperatures hovered around freezing (0 ​degrees Celsius or 32 degrees Fahrenheit).

Russian forces are “trying to cut off all Ukrainians from our critical resources just to freeze us”, Kyiv-based journalist Kristina Zelenyuk told Al Jazeera.

Upcoming peace talks

The Russian attack came as Zelenskyy prepares to meet with US President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday for further talks on how to end Moscow’s nearly four-year war.

Zelenskyy said they planned to discuss security guarantees and questions over future territorial control, the main sticking points in the negotiations.

Analysts say the Russian strikes on Kyiv were aimed at sending a clear message ahead of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.

“It’s kind of traditional in the negotiations, since before the invasion, since 2014, whenever we have these kind of meetings, there is an escalated attack. And the point is to put pressure on the meeting,” said Ben Aris, the founder and editor-in-chief of BNE Intelli-News.

“And Putin here is underlining the fact that he has the ability to take out power stations just as temperatures fall below zero,” said Aris. The message Putin aimed to send is that if Zelenskyy “doesn’t succumb to my demands, then I have the ability to black out all of the large cities in Ukraine with these high precision and powerful missiles,” said Aris.

Before the talks with Trump, Zelenskyy met Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Halifax on Saturday. The two held a bilateral meeting before attending a joint telephone conversation with European leaders.

Speaking beside⁠ the Ukrainian leader, Carney announced ​an additional 2.5 billion Canadian dollars ‍($1.82bn) of economic aid for Ukraine, and said that peace depends on a “willing Russia”.

Later, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz issued a statement saying that Zelenskyy had “the full support” of European leaders and of Canada, before his talks with Trump. They and the leaders of NATO and the European Union said they would work “in close coordination with the US for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine”, Merz added.

EU chiefs Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa also reaffirmed the bloc’s support for Ukraine.

“We welcome all efforts leading to our shared objective – a just and lasting peace that preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” European Commission President von der Leyen said on X after the call with Zelenskyy and Carney.

Costa, the president of the European Council, which represents the EU’s 27 member states, echoed her promise to continue backing Ukraine, saying on X: “The EU’s support for Ukraine will not falter. In war, in peace, in reconstruction.”

Ukraine ‘suffering’

Moscow demands that Ukraine withdraw from the parts of the eastern Donetsk region that Russian troops have failed to occupy during almost four years of war, as it seeks full control of the Donbas, comprising the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Kyiv wants the fighting to be halted at the current lines.

The US, seeking a compromise, has proposed a free economic zone if Ukraine leaves parts of the Donetsk region. Zelenskyy told US news site Axios on Friday that he would seek a stronger position for Ukraine, but could put the US-backed plan to a referendum if necessary.

Both Zelenskyy and Trump have expressed optimism about the meeting, with the Ukrainian leader saying that most components of a US-Ukraine agreement had been ironed out and that he hopes to finalise a framework on Sunday.

“A lot can be decided before the New Year,” Zelenskyy posted on social media on Friday.

But the attack on Saturday appeared to alter Zelenskyy’s tone. In a post following the aerial barrage, he said that Russia’s leadership “does not want to end the war”, and that their drones and missiles speak louder than any “lengthy talks” they engaged in.

Russia’s leadership aims “to use every opportunity to cause Ukraine even greater suffering and increase their pressure on others around the world”, said Zelenskyy.

The Russian president levied similar criticism.

According to the Interfax and TASS news agencies, Putin said Russia could see Kyiv was in no hurry to end the conflict by peaceful means. He also threatened Russia would accomplish all goals of its “special military operation” in Ukraine by force.

Separately on Saturday, Russian forces ‌reported that they had captured the ‌town of Myrnohrad ⁠in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as well as Huliaipole ‌in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, the Kremlin said on ‍its Telegram channel.

Ukraine’s military, however, said in its daily battlefield update that its forces had beaten back Russian attempts to advance in the vicinity of Myrnohrad and Huliaipole

Polls have opened in Myanmar’s first general election since the country’s military toppled Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government in a 2021 coup.

The heavily restricted election on Sunday is taking place in about a third of the Southeast Asian nation’s 330 townships, with large areas inaccessible amid a raging civil war between the military and an array of opposition forces.

Following the initial phase, two rounds of voting will be held on January 11 and January 25, while voting has been cancelled in 65 townships altogether.

“This means that at least 20 percent of the country is disenfranchised at this stage,” said Al Jazeera’s Tony Cheng, reporting from Myanmar’s largest city, Yangon. “The big question is going to be here in the cities, what is the turnout going to be like?”

In Yangon, polling stations opened at 6am on Sunday (23:30 GMT, Saturday), and once the sun was up, “we’ve seen a relatively regular flow of voters come in,” said Cheng.

“But the voters are generally middle aged, and we haven’t seen many young people. When you look at the ballot, there are only few choices. The vast majority of those choices are military parties,” he said.

The election has been derided by critics – including the United Nations, some Western countries and human rights ⁠groups – as an exercise that is not free, fair or credible, with anti-military political parties not competing.

Aung San Suu Kyi, who was deposed by the military ​months after her National League for Democracy (NLD) won the last general election by a landslide in 2020, remains in detention, and her party has been dissolved.

The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is widely expected to emerge as the largest party.

The military, which has governed Myanmar since 2021, said the vote is a chance for a new start, politically and economically, for the nation of 55 million people, with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing consistently framing the polls as a path to reconciliation.

The military chief cast his ballot shortly after polling stations opened in Naypyidaw, the country’s capital.

The polls “will turn a new page for Myanmar, shifting the narrative from a conflict-affected, crisis-laden country to a new chapter of hope for building peace and reconstructing ‌the economy”, an opinion piece in the state-run Global New Light of Myanmar said on Saturday.

‘A resounding USDP victory’

But with fighting still raging in many areas of the country, the elections are being held in an environment of violence and repression, according to UN human rights chief Volker Turk. “There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly that allow for the free and meaningful participation of the people,” he said last week.

The civil war, which was triggered by the 2021 coup, has killed an estimated 90,000 people, displaced 3.5 million and left some 22 million people in need of humanitarian assistance.

According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, more than 22,000 people are currently detained for political offences.

In downtown Yangon, stations were cordoned off overnight, with security staff posted outside, while armed officers guarded traffic intersections. Election officials set up equipment and installed electronic voting machines, which are being used for the first time in Myanmar.

The machines will not allow write-in candidates or spoiled ballots.

Among a trickle of early voters in the city was 45-year-old Swe Maw, who dismissed international criticism.

“It’s not an important matter,” he told the AFP news agency. “There are always people who like and dislike.”

In the central Mandalay region, 40-year-old Moe Moe Myint said it was “impossible for this election to be free and fair”.

“How can we support a junta-run election when this military has destroyed our lives?” she told AFP. “We are homeless, hiding in jungles, and living between life and death,” she added.

The second round of polling will take place in two weeks’ time, before the third and final round on January 25.

Dates for counting votes and announcing election results have not been declared.

Analysts say the military’s attempt to establish a stable administration in the midst of an expansive conflict is fraught with risk, and that significant international recognition is unlikely for any military-controlled government.

“The outcome is hardly in doubt: a resounding USDP victory and a continuation of army rule with a thin civilian veneer,” wrote Richard Horsey, an analyst at the International Crisis Group in a briefing earlier this month.

“But it will in no way ease Myanmar’s political crisis or weaken the resolve of a determined armed resistance. Instead, it will likely harden political divisions and prolong Myanmar’s state failure. The new administration, which will take power in April 2026, will have few better options, little credibility and likely no feasible strategy for moving the country in a positive direction,” he added.

If Israel and the US were to attack Iran again, they would ‘face a more decisive response’, Pezeshkian warns.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says that the United States, Israel and Europe are waging a “full-fledged war” against his country.

“In my opinion, we are in a full-fledged war with America, Israel and Europe. They do not want our country to stand on its feet,” Pezeshkian told the official site of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an interview on Saturday.

The president’s remarks come ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting on Monday with US President Donald Trump. They also come six months after Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran, and after France, Germany and the United Kingdom reimposed United Nations sanctions on Iran in September over its nuclear programme.

“Our dear military forces are doing their jobs with strength, and now, in terms of equipment and manpower, despite all the problems we have, they are stronger than when they [Israel and the US] attacked,” Pezeshkian said.

“So, if they want to attack, they will naturally face a more decisive response.”

The president said that “this war” is unlike past ones.

“This war is worse than Iraq’s war against us. If one understands it well, this war is far more complex and difficult than that war,” Pezeshkian said, referring to the 1980-1988 conflict between the neighbouring countries in which thousands were killed.

The US and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, a claim Tehran has repeatedly denied.

Israel and Iran engaged in a 12-day war in June, triggered by an unprecedented Israeli attack on Iranian military and nuclear sites, as well as civilian areas.

The strikes caused more than 1,000 casualties, according to Iranian authorities.

The US later joined the Israeli operation, bombing three Iranian nuclear sites.

Washington’s involvement brought a halt to negotiations with Tehran, which began in April, over its nuclear programme.

Since returning to the White House in January, US President Donald Trump has revived his so-called “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, initiated during his first term.

That has included additional sanctions designed to economically cripple the country and dry up its oil revenues from sales on the global market.

According to recent reports, when Netanyahu visits Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida this weekend, he will be pushing for more military actions against Iran, this time focusing on Tehran’s missile programme.

Aston Villa’s latest comeback win has highlighted coach Unai Emery’s remarkable record of turning around games, which has put his side firmly in the Premier League title race.

After Saturday’s 2-1 win at Chelsea – their 12th in 13th league matches – Villa have claimed 18 points from losing positions so far this season, more than any other team.

And it is not just this year that the Spaniard has been ⁠affecting games with his decision-making. Across the last three seasons, Villa have won more points from matches in ​which they were losing than any other Premier League team, according to data firm Opta.

In ‍the 58th minute on Saturday, with Chelsea 1-0 up and looking in control, Emery gambled on a triple substitution, bringing on Ollie Watkins and more attacking firepower in the form of winger Jadon Sancho, along with midfielder Amadou Onana.

Five minutes later, Watkins ‍pounced on a ⁠through ball by Morgan Rogers to beat Robert Sanchez in the Chelsea goal.

Buoyed by their equaliser and their change of personnel, Villa looked transformed from the side that was pinned back by their hosts for most of the first hour.

In the 84th minute, Watkins – hoping for a place in the England World Cup squad next summer – met a Youri Tielemans corner with an angled header that left Sanchez with no chance.

“He’s a tactical genius,” Watkins said when asked by Sky ​Sports about Emery’s ability to change the momentum of matches.

The coach himself tried ‌to sound a bit less effusive. “It’s something, of course, that makes us proud of everything we are doing,” Emery said when asked about Villa’s ability to turn losing situations into victories.

He sought to play down his side’s chances of winning the title, despite ‌their blistering form.

“I am not feeling it,” Emery said. “I am feeling we competing very well, and we are now the third in the league with two ‌teams, Manchester City and Arsenal, wow.”

But with the season only halfway ⁠through, Villa, who struggled badly at the start of the campaign, need to show more consistency, he said.

Villa face league leaders Arsenal in London on Tuesday.

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca had to face questions about much less impressive statistics for his young side, who have ‌dropped 11 points from winning positions in home Premier League matches this season – four more than any other side.

“We need to understand why when we concede a goal, we struggle a bit to manage the game,” ‍the Italian told reporters.

He was left to rue Chelsea’s failure to build a bigger lead before Villa’s fightback.

“By the time they scored the goal, I think we should have scored two to three goals,” Maresca said.

Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool maintain form

Manchester City threw down the gauntlet for the ‍second successive weekend, and Arsenal proved undaunted ‍as they kicked off their festive fixtures with a narrow 2-1 defeat of Brighton & Hove Albion to stay as Premier League leaders on Saturday.

City won 2-1 at Nottingham Forest, with Rayan Cherki grabbing a goal and an assist to briefly move to the top of the pile.

But Arsenal, just as they had done last week by beating Everton after City’s earlier win over West Ham United, were unwavering as captain Martin Odegaard scored his first goal of the season for Mikel Arteta’s side.

Arsenal also needed an own goal and ⁠a spectacular save by keeper David Raya to preserve their lead, as the halfway point in the Premier League season looms.

The London side have 42 points from 18 games, with City on 40.

When Odegaard drilled in a 14th-minute opener for the Gunners, and Georginio Rutter’s own goal from a Declan Rice corner made it 2-0 shortly after the break, it should have been ​a routine three points for the hosts.

But Diego Gomez’s reply for Brighton changed the complexion of the contest, and there was relief at the final ‌whistle as Arsenal cleared another obstacle in the title chase.

“The knock-on effect of winning is incredibly powerful,” Arteta said of a victory that should have been easier.

“It should never be 2-1, but that’s the Premier League. What I like is that we have a lot of issues [but] we’re dealing with it in an incredible way. Yesterday, we lost Jurrien [Timber]; today, we lost [Riccardo] Calafiori in the warm-up; Declan [Rice] has to play as a full-back, and you see the performance that ‌he put in. So, that’s the spirit and that’s how much our players want it.”

Florian Wirtz scored his first Liverpool goal as they beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 on an emotional Anfield afternoon, when both sets of fans remembered the late Diogo Jota, who died in a car crash in July.

Wirtz doubled Liverpool’s lead shortly after Ryan Gravenberch had put them in front, although Wolves rallied in the second half and Santiago Bueno pulled a goal back.

Reigning champions Liverpool moved fourth on 32 ‍points, while the misery for the ⁠bottom club Wolves continues.

They have now broken the Premier League record for winless starts to a season and have two points from 18 games, and are 16 points behind the fourth-from-bottom Nottingham Forest.

Tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians in Gaza, surrounded by tents and debris, are suffering through more winter rains after two years of Israeli bombardment destroyed much of the Strip.

A polar low-pressure system accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds swept across the Gaza Strip on Saturday. It is the third polar low to affect the Palestinian territory this winter, with a fourth low-pressure system forecast to hit the area starting on Monday, meteorologist Laith al-Allami told the Anadolu news agency.

Many families have been living in tents since late 2023, for most of the duration of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

The enclave is imminently facing freezing temperatures, rain and strong winds, as the authorities warn the downpour could intensify into a full-blown storm.

Mohammed Maslah, a displaced Palestinian now in Gaza City, told Al Jazeera in his rugged tent that he did not have a choice but to stay there.

“I could not find anywhere to live in Gaza, except Gaza Port,” he told Al Jazeera. “I’m forced to stay here because my home is under Israeli control. After just a few hours of rain, we were soaked.”

In Deir al-Balah, Shaima Wadi, a mother of four children who was displaced from Jabaliya in the north, spoke to the Associated Press. “We have been living in this tent for two years. Every time it rains and the tent collapses over our heads, we try to put up new pieces of wood,” she said. “With how expensive everything has become, and without any income, we can barely afford clothes for our children or mattresses for them to sleep on.”

The heavy rains earlier this month flooded tents and makeshift shelters across Gaza, where most of the buildings have been destroyed or damaged by Israeli attacks.

So far in December, at least 15 people, including three babies, died from hypothermia following rains and plunging temperatures, with several buildings collapsing, according to the authorities in Gaza. Aid organisations have called for Israel to allow more shelters and other humanitarian aid into the territory.

Ibrahim Abu al-Reesh, head of field operations for the Civil Defence in the Gaza Port area, said that his teams responded to various distress calls as weather conditions got harsher in places where displaced people set up fragile tents.

“We worked hard to cover some of these damaged tents with plastic sheets after they were flooded by rainwater,” he told Al Jazeera.

Al Jazeera’s Ibrahim Al Khalili, reporting from Gaza City, said that winter has been adding to the suffering of tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians who do not have safe shelters.

“The same misery repeats as each rain fills neighbourhoods with muddy water,” he said.

Ceasefire talks

As Palestinians face dire conditions in Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Washington, DC, in the coming days while negotiators and others discuss the second stage of the ceasefire that took effect on October 10.

The progress in the peace process has been slow. Challenges in phase two of the ceasefire include the deployment of an international stabilisation force, a technocratic governing body for Gaza, the proposed disarmament of Hamas and further Israeli troop withdrawals from the territory.

So far, the agreement has partially held despite Israel’s repeated violations.

Since the ceasefire went into effect, more than 414 Palestinians have been killed and 1,142 wounded, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health.

It also said the bodies of 679 people were pulled from the rubble during the same period, as the truce makes it safer to search for the remains of people killed earlier.

The ministry on Saturday said that 29 bodies, including 25 recovered from under the rubble, had been brought to local hospitals over the past 48 hours.

The overall Palestinian death toll from Israel’s war has risen to at least 71,266, the ministry said, and another 171,219 have been wounded.

Emery may deflect title talk, but his body of work at Villa and the Midas touch he displays – match-winner Watkins described his manager as a “tactical genius” – means they are now right at the heart of the conversation at the top of the table.

Villa’s acid test may just come in their next game, when they face league leaders Arsenal at Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, 30 December (20:15 GMT) but Emery has made a habit of making life difficult for his former club.

He ticks every box for an elite manager, taking Villa into the Champions League last season, only missing out on this term’s competition on the final day of the last campaign, and now taking them just three points from the top of the table and only a point behind Manchester City.

Another figure of significance is that Villa’s win means they are now 10 points clear of fifth-placed Chelsea, a position they would have accepted with gratitude after failing to win any of their first five league games.

Emery proved his pedigree when he acted to galvanise a stuttering Villa display just before the hour as they trailed to Joao Pedro’s messy 37th-minute goal, the striker touching home Reece James’ corner in a scramble.

With Villa going nowhere but the game still in the balance, Emery sent on Watkins, Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho for Donyell Malen, John McGinn and Emiliano Buendia.

The impact was stunning, Watkins equalising inside four minutes then powering home a header for the winner.

Emery did what the best managers do – he took the big decisions that turned a game which looked to be getting away from Villa on its head.

The recent strikes by the United States on alleged ISIL (ISIS) targets in northwest Nigeria have been presented in Washington as a decisive counter-terror response. For the supporters of the administration of US President Donald Trump, the unprecedented operation signalled his country’s renewed resolve in confronting terrorism. It is also making good on Trump’s pledge to take action on what he claims is a “Christian genocide” in Nigeria.

But beneath the spectacle of military action lies a sobering reality: Bombing campaigns of this nature are unlikely to improve Nigeria’s security or help stabilise the conflict-racked country. On the contrary, the strikes risk misrepresenting the conflict and distracting from the deeper structural crisis that is driving violence.

The first problem with the strikes is their lack of strategic logic. The initial strikes were launched in Sokoto in northwest Nigeria, a region that has experienced intense turmoil over the past decade. But this violence is not primarily driven by an ideological insurgency linked to ISIL, and no known ISIL-linked groups are operating in the region. Instead, security concerns in this region are rooted in banditry, the collapse of rural economies, and competition for land. Armed groups here are fragmented and motivated largely by profit.

The Christmas Day strikes appear to have focused on a relatively new ideological armed group called Lakurawa, though its profile and any connection to ISIL are yet to be fully established.

The ideological armed groups with the strongest presence in northern Nigeria are Boko Haram and the ISIL-affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP). The centre of these groups’ activity remains hundreds of kilometres from Sokoto, in the northeast of Nigeria – the states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa – where insurgency has a long history. This begs the question: Why strike the northwest first? The logic is unclear.

Equally concerning is the uncertainty surrounding casualties. So far, we have no authoritative figures. Some social media accounts claim there were no human casualties, suggesting the bombs fell on empty targets. Security analyst Brant Philip posted on his social media platform X: “According to a private source familiar with the US operation against the Islamic State in Nigeria, several strikes were launched, but most of the individuals and groups targeted were missed, and the actual damage inflicted remains mostly unknown.”

Nigerian news platform Arise TV reported on X that locals confirmed the incident caused widespread panic; according to its correspondent, at least one of the attacks happened in a district that had not suffered from violence before. They also noted that the full impact of the attack, including whether there were civilian casualties, is yet to be determined.

Other social media accounts have circulated images alleging civilian casualties, though these claims remain unverified. In a context where information warfare operates alongside armed conflict, speculation often travels faster than facts. The lack of transparent data on casualties from the US government risks deepening mistrust among communities already wary of foreign military involvement.

Symbolism also matters. The attack took place on Christmas Day, a detail that carries emotive and political significance. For many Muslims in northern Nigeria, the timing risks being interpreted as an act of supporting a broader narrative of a Western “crusade” against the Muslim community.

Even more sensitive is the location of the strikes: Sokoto. Historically, it is the spiritual seat of the 19th-century Sokoto Caliphate, a centre of Islamic authority and expansion revered by Nigerian Muslims. Bombing such a symbolic centre risks inflaming anti-US sentiment, deepening religious suspicion, and giving hardline propagandists fertile ground to exploit. Rather than weakening alleged ISIL influence, the strikes could inadvertently energise recruitment and amplify grievance narratives.

If air strikes cannot solve Nigeria’s security crisis, what can?

The answer lies not in foreign military intervention. Nigeria’s conflicts are symptoms of deeper governance failures: Weakened security, corruption, and the absence of the state in rural communities. In the northwest, where banditry thrives, residents often negotiate with armed groups not because they sympathise with them, but because the state is largely absent to provide them with security and basic services. In the northeast, where Boko Haram emerged, years of government neglect, heavy-handed security tactics, and economic exclusion created fertile ground for insurgency.

The most sustainable security response must therefore be multi-layered. It requires investment in community-based policing, dialogue, and pathways for deradicalisation. It demands a state presence that protects rather than punishes. It means prioritising intelligence gathering, strengthening local authorities, and restoring trust between citizens and government institutions.

The US strikes may generate headlines and satisfy a domestic audience, but on the ground in Nigeria, they risk doing little more than empowering hardline messaging and deepening resentment.

Nigerians do not need the US to bomb their country into security and stability. They need autochthonous reform: Localised long-term support to rebuild trust, restore livelihoods, and strengthen state institutions. Anything less is a distraction.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

“More to come”: Those are the words of United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after his country carried out a wave of air strikes against ISIL (ISIS) in northwestern Nigeria.

Hegseth said the aim is to stop the group’s killing of what he called “innocent Christians”.

Back in November, President Donald Trump warned the US would take action against the group if the Nigerian government continued to allow what he claimed was the targeting of Christians.

Many say Trump was pressured by his right-wing Christian base in the US to carry out the recent attacks in Nigeria. But what could be the fallout on the African country with a highly complex religious makeup?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

Malik Samuel – Senior researcher at Good Governance Africa

Ebenezer Obadare – Senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations

David Otto – Deputy director of counterterrorism training at the International Academy for the Fight Against Terrorism

Yangon, Myanmar – Voters in parts of Myanmar are heading to the polls on Sunday for an election that critics view as a bid by the country’s generals to legitimise military rule, nearly five years after they overthrew the government of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The multi-phased election is unfolding amid a raging civil war, with ethnic armed groups and opposition militias fighting the military for control of vast stretches of territory, stretching from the borderlands with Bangladesh and India in the west, across the central plains, to the frontiers with China and Thailand in the north and east.

In central Sagaing, voting will take place in only a third of the region’s townships on Sunday. Another third will be covered during a second and third phase in January, while voting has been cancelled altogether in the remainder.

Fighting, including air raids and arson, has intensified in several areas.

“The military is deploying troops and burning villages under the guise of ‘territorial dominance’,” said Esther J, a journalist based there. “People here are saying this is being done for the election.”

In most of the region, “we haven’t seen a single activity related to the election,” she said. “No one is campaigning, organising or telling people to vote.”

Across Myanmar, voting has been cancelled in 56 of the country’s 330 townships, with more cancellations expected. The conflict, triggered by the 2021 coup, has killed an estimated 90,000 people and displaced more than 3.5 million, according to monitoring groups and the United Nations. It has left nearly half of the country’s population of 55 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

“People [in Sagaing] say they have no interest in the election,” said Esther J. “They do not want the military. They want the revolutionary forces to win.”

Shifting battlefield

For much of last year, the Myanmar military appeared to be losing ground.

A coordinated offensive launched in late 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of ethnic armed groups and opposition militias – seized vast areas, nearly pushing the military out of western Rakhine state and capturing a major regional military headquarters in the northeastern city of Lashio, about 120km (75 miles) from the Chinese border. Armed with commercial drones modified to carry bombs, the rebels were soon threatening the country’s second-largest city of Mandalay.

The operation – dubbed 1027 – marked the most significant threat to the military since the 2021 coup.

But the momentum has stalled this year, largely because of China’s intervention.

In April, Beijing brokered a deal in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army agreed to surrender the city of Lashio, without a single shot being fired. The military subsequently reclaimed key towns in north and central Myanmar, including Nawnghkio, Thabeikkyin, Kyaukme and Hsipaw. In late October, China brokered another agreement for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army to withdraw from the gold mining towns of Mogok and Momeik.

“The Myanmar military is definitely resurgent,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “If this current trend continues, the Myanmar military could be back in a relatively dominant position in a year or so, maybe two.”

The military turned the tide by launching a conscription drive, expanding its drone fleet and putting more combat credible soldiers in charge. Since announcing mandatory military service in February 2024, it has recruited between 70,000 to 80,000 people, researchers say.

“The conscription drive has been unexpectedly effective,” said Min Zaw Oo, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security. “Economic hardship and political polarisation pushed many young men into the ranks,” he said, with many of the recruits technically adept and serving as snipers and drone operators. “The military’s drone units now outmatch those of the opposition,” he added.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a monitoring group, air and drone attacks by the military have increased by roughly 30 percent this year. The group recorded 2,602 air attacks that it said killed 1,971 people – the highest toll since the coup. It said Myanmar now ranks third in the world for drone operations, behind only Ukraine and Russia.

China, meanwhile, has applied pressure beyond brokering ceasefires.

According to analysts, Beijing pressed one of the strongest armed ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army, to cut off weapons supplies to other rebels, resulting in ammunition shortages across the country. The opposition forces have also suffered from disunity. “They are as fragmented as ever,” said Michaels of the IISS. “Relationships between these groups are deteriorating, and the ethnic armed organisations are abandoning the People’s Defence Forces,” he said, referring to the opposition militias that mobilised after the coup.

China’s calculations

China, observers say, acted for fear of a state collapse in Myanmar.

“The situation in Myanmar is a ‘hot mess’, and it’s on China’s border,” said Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. Beijing, he said, wants to see peace in Myanmar to protect key trade routes, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that, when completed, will link its landlocked Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean and a deep seaport there.

Tangen said Beijing harbours no love for the military, but sees few alternatives.

Indeed, after the coup, Beijing refrained from normalising relations with Myanmar or recognising coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. But in a sign of shifting policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Min Aung Hlaing twice this year. During talks in China’s Tianjin in August, Xi told Min Aung Hlaing that Beijing supports Myanmar in safeguarding its sovereignty, as well as “in unifying all domestic political forces” and “restoring stability and development”.

Tangen said China sees the election as a path to more predictable governance. Russia and India, too, have backed the process, though the UN and several Western nations have called it a “sham”. But Tangen noted that while Western nations denounce the military, they have done little to engage with the rebels. The United States has dealt further blows by cutting off foreign aid and ending visa protections for Myanmar citizens.

“The West is paying lip service to the humanitarian crisis. China’s trying to do something but doesn’t know how to solve it,” Tangen said.

Limited gains, lasting war

The military’s territorial gains, meanwhile, remain modest.

In northern Shan state, Myanmar’s largest, the military has recaptured only 11.3 percent of the territory it had lost, according to the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, a think tank. But it is western Rakhine State that remains the “larger and more intense theatre of war”, said Khin Zaw Win, a Yangon-based analyst.

There, the Arakan Army is pushing beyond the borders of the state, overrunning multiple bases, and pushing east in a move that threatens the military’s defence industries. In northern Kachin state, the battle for Bhamo, a gateway to the north, is approaching its first anniversary, while in the southeast, armed groups have taken a “number of important positions along the border with Thailand”, he said.

So the military’s recent gains in other parts were “not that significant”, he added.

ACLED, the war monitor, also described the military’s successes as “limited in the context of the overall conflict”. In a briefing this month, Su Mon, a senior analyst at ACLED, wrote that the military remains in a “weakened position compared to before the 2021 coup and Operation 1027 and is unable to assert effective control over the areas it has recently retaken”.

Still, the gains give the military “more confidence to proceed with the elections”, said Khin Zaw Win.

The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which has fielded the most candidates, is expected to form the next government. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has been dissolved, and she remains held incommunicado, while other smaller opposition parties have been barred from participating.

Khin Zaw Win said he does not expect the election to “affect the war to any appreciable extent” and that the military might even be “deluded to go for a complete military victory”.

But on the other hand, China could help de-escalate, he said.

“China’s mediation efforts are geared toward a negotiated settlement,” he noted. “It expects a ‘payoff’ and does not want a protracted war that will harm its larger interests.”

Zaheena Rasheed wrote and reported from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and Cape Diamond reported from Yangon, Myanmar.