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Afghan officials say a suspected Pakistani air strike hit a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul, killing hundreds of patients and staff and leaving the facility in ruins. Pakistan denies targeting civilians, as tensions escalate between Islamabad and Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government.

Turkana, Kenya – In the relentless heat of Kainama in Turkana county, Veronica Akalapatan and her neighbours walk several kilometres each day to a half-dried-up well surrounded by the parched earth of northern Kenya.

The dug-out hole in the ground with a wooden ladder is the only source of water in the area. Hundreds of people from several villages – and their livestock – share the well, most waiting hours to fill up small plastic buckets with meagre amounts of unclean water.

“Once we get here, we dig for water in the well and collect fruit. We wait for the water to fill the well,” says Akalapatan. “We take turns to fetch it because there is so little. There are many of us, and sometimes we fight over it.”

In Turkana, the land is rugged, roads disappear into dust, and villages are scattered across vast distances in a county of just more than a million people.

Despite it being the rainy season, weather experts warn that Turkana and other arid regions may receive little relief.

Authorities say drought is once again taking place, with 23 of Kenya’s 47 counties affected. An estimated 3.4 million people do not have enough to eat, at least 800,000 children show signs of malnutrition, and livestock – the backbone of pastoral life – are dying.

In Turkana alone, 350,000 households are on the brink of starvation.

“We are suffering from hunger,” Turkana elder Peter Longiron Aemun tells Al Jazeera.

“We don’t have water. Our livestock have died. We have nothing. We used to burn charcoal, but there are no acacia trees any more.”

Kenya is still recovering from one of its worst droughts in 40 years, which gripped the country between 2020 and 2023. The new weather crisis will likely make things worse.

But at the same time, experts note a stark paradox: Scarcity amid abundance.

Food loss and food waste

While families face acute water shortages and hunger – with boreholes broken down, and wells and streams dried up – Lake Turkana’s water levels have risen in recent years, displacing some shoreline communities.

In other areas, sudden heavy rains trigger flash floods in normally dry riverbeds – known locally as luggas – yet the land remains largely barren. The water comes too fast, runs off too quickly and cannot sustain agriculture.

At the same time, while droughts lessen food supplies and global donor funding cuts have reduced food aid, not too far away, experts say, there is a surplus of food that does not make its way to those who need it.

“In Kenya, a quarter of the population faces severe food insecurity, even as up to 40% of the food produced is lost or wasted each year,” according to a September report by the World Resources Institute (WRI).

Food loss occurs on farms, and during the handling, storage and transportation of supplies, while food waste occurs in households, restaurants and in the retail sphere, WRI researchers noted.

In parts of the North Rift – one of Kenya’s breadbaskets – farmers have recorded good harvests. But high prices and widespread poverty mean pastoralist families in Turkana cannot easily afford food transported from surplus regions.

Security adds another layer of strain. Competition over water and pasture fuels tensions, cattle raids persist, armed bandits operate in remote areas, and security forces struggle to contain violence amid logistical and political challenges.

“The biggest problem in drought areas is security,” says Joseph Kamande, a food trader in Wangige in central Kenya.

Still, he believes the country has the potential to feed itself with better planning.

“The land is vast. Some of it is arable,” he says, adding that “water is the solution.”

Untapped aquifers

In Turkana, though there is severe drought, there are also untapped natural resources.

Hundreds of metres underground are multiple aquifers, layers of rock and soil containing water. The government is hoping to tap into these sources.

In 2013, two major aquifers were discovered, the Napuu aquifer and the Lotikipi aquifer. The largest covers roughly 5,000km (3,100 miles) and holds about 250 trillion litres (66 trillion gallons) of water.

It is said to have the capacity to supply Kenya with water for decades.

However, much of the water is salty and expensive to purify, so the project has stalled.

“The big challenge is salinity,” says Turkana County Water Director Paul Lotum.

“The national government and partners are mapping out pockets where water is safe and reliable. We are working bit by bit to harness it for communities.”

Until then, relief food remains essential for Turkana communities.

The government’s disaster management teams and other agencies are distributing water and food. But supplies are stretched thin. And getting aid to those who need it most is nearly impossible in some areas.

“Most government organisations are either closed or running leaner programmes,” says Jacob Ekaran, Turkana’s coordinator for the National Drought Management Authority.

“The resource basket has shrunk. But the government is trying to do more with what it has.”

‘I can’t find food’

When supplies run low, many people turn to wild berries and fruits.

In Lopur village, resident Akal Loyeit Etangana harvests berries that she then cooks in a small pot over an outdoor fire.

She says she has not had a proper meal in two weeks, so the fruit mixture keeps hunger away. Still, it carries almost no nutritional value.

“If it doesn’t rain, trees and leaves dry up. There is no water,” she laments, adding that clinics are also very far away and people have to walk long distances to get help.

In another village, Napeillim, resident Christine Kiepa worries that there is no food.

“I try to look for food. Sometimes it’s not there,” she says. “If I can’t find food, how do I survive?” she asks.

Villages in the region are slowly emptying. Male herders, who are usually the providers for their families, have moved to neighbouring counties in search of pasture and water for their dying livestock.

Only the elderly, women, young children and the weakest animals remain in the homesteads.

Still, there have been some gains in the region.

Since Kenya adopted a devolved system of government in 2013, Turkana has seen new schools and health centres built, irrigation schemes launched, boreholes drilled, and some roads tarmacked. Officials say investments in drought response have strengthened resilience.

“In the past, drought always degenerated into disaster. You would see reports of deaths,” says Ekaran from the drought management authority. “We are coming from one of the worst droughts in 40 years, but we did not record deaths. That is because of resilience building.”

Painful cycle

For generations, northern Kenya’s nomadic communities have depended on livestock. But climate change is forcing a reckoning. Calls for diversification – irrigation, drought-resistant crops and trees, large dams – have grown louder.

“We can change our community mindset,” says Rukia Abubakar, Turkana coordinator for the Red Cross.

“We can plant drought-resistant trees. We can do irrigation. Our soil is good for crop farming.”

These proposals are not new. They have surfaced after every drought, repeated in policy papers and political speeches.

Yet for many people in Turkana, the cycle feels painfully familiar and daily survival remains precarious.

Back in Kainama, Akalapatan and her neighbours walk back from the water well through the vast, arid landscape, carrying a collection of filled yellow plastic buckets.

They finally return to their small community of thatched huts.

Akalapatan has managed to collect 20 litres (5 gallons) of water for her family for the day.

Her son eagerly fills a cup and gulps it down.

But she knows that what she has is barely enough for everyone, and she will soon have to make the journey to the well again.

A building in the northern Israeli city of Nahariyya caught fire on Monday after a rocket attack launched from Lebanon.

Afghan authorities say a Pakistani attack killed hundreds of civilians; Islamabad rejects claim as ‘false’.

Families have gathered outside a drug treatment centre in the Afghan capital, Kabul, looking for their loved ones after it was hit in a Pakistani air strike, which Taliban authorities said killed 408 people.

The attack on Kabul’s Omar Addiction Treatment Hospital took place at about 9pm local time (16:30 GMT) on Monday.

Baryalai Amiri, a 38-year-old mechanic, was at the 2,000-bed facility on Tuesday to look for his brother, who was admitted about 25 days ago.

“We are not given the proper information,” Amiri told the AFP news agency, as rescuers picked through the rubble nearby. “So far, we don’t know where he is.”

Afghanistan and Pakistan have been in conflict for months, with Islamabad accusing its neighbour of harbouring armed groups that have mounted deadly cross-border attacks.

The latest round of violence that began last month⁠, two days before the world’s focus shifted sharply to the US-Israel war on Iran, is the worst ever between the neighbours.

The two nations share a 2,600km (1,600-mile) border. The conflict had ebbed amid attempts by friendly countries, including China, to mediate and end the fighting before flaring up again.

Pakistan denied Afghan claims that its latest attack targeted civilians, instead insisting that it carried out precision strikes on “military installations and terrorist support infrastructure”.

“Pakistan’s targeting is precise and carefully undertaken to ensure no collateral damage is inflicted,” the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said. Islamabad dismissed the claim as “false and aimed at misleading public opinion”.

The health authorities said there were about 3,000 patients from across Afghanistan at the clinic at the time of the attack, which triggered panic in Kabul just after residents had broken their daily Ramadan fast.

The United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, said he was “dismayed” by reports of the air raids and civilian casualties.

“I urge parties to de-escalate, exercise maximum restraint & respect international law, including the protection of civilians and civilian objects such as hospitals,” he posted on X.

‘It was like doomsday’

A spokesman for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Interior Affairs said on Tuesday that the attack killed 408 people and injured 265.

Witnesses said they heard three explosions just as people in the hospital were completing evening prayers. Two of the bombs struck rooms and patient areas, they said.

“The whole place caught fire. It was like doomsday,” 50-year-old Ahmad told the Reuters news agency.

“My friends were burning in the fire, and we could not save them all,” he said, giving only his first name as he was under treatment at the facility.

Ambulance driver Haji Fahim told Reuters that he arrived at the site shortly after the air raids.

“When I arrived [last night], I saw that everything was burning, people were burning,” Fahim said on Tuesday. “Early in the morning, they called me again and told ⁠me to come back because there are still bodies under the rubble.”

The clinic was established in 2016 and has treated hundreds of people, also providing them with vocational training, such as tailoring and carpentry, to make them employable, according to local media reports.

All the build-up and live updates from the first 2026 Women’s Asian Cup semifinal between China and Australia.

Islamabad, Pakistan — The war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran has already killed more than 1,400 people, set off retaliatory attacks by Tehran targeting Gulf nations and Israel, and pushed global oil prices above $100 a barrel.

Now, eighteen days into the conflict, aid agencies and countries neighbouring Iran are increasingly concerned about a potential refugee crisis.

The United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that 3.2 million people have already been displaced in Iran since US-Israeli strikes began on February 28. For now, the number of people physically crossing Iran’s borders remains comparatively modest. But this is what could happen next, and has put Iran’s neighbours on high alert.

Iran borders seven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkiye and Turkmenistan. Iraq shares the longest frontier, stretching for almost 1,600km (994 miles).

Each of these states faces its own political pressures, economic limitations and security concerns.

But pressure on the ground in Iran is mounting. The country’s Red Crescent Society reports that more than 10,000 civilian sites have been damaged since the war began, including 65 schools and 32 medical facilities, while more than 1,400 people have been killed in the US-Israel attacks. Strikes have hit residential areas in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan.

Meanwhile, commercial flights out of Iran have been suspended as airspace is closed.

Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at the geopolitical advisory firm Nightingale International, noted that because strikes have so far been concentrated largely on Tehran and western and southwestern Iran, other parts of the country — especially provinces bordering Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan are absorbing much of the internal displacement.

“If the strike pattern remains the same, internally displaced people inside Iran will increasingly concentrate in provinces located near those states, creating the preconditions for cross-border movement,” the Almaty-based analyst told Al Jazeera.

And things could get worse. If Tehran, a city of about 10 million people, were to lose its electricity grid or water supply in a US-Israel attack, for instance, residents could be forced to leave en masse.

“Infrastructure destruction does not produce the gradual, manageable flows that the Syrian war initially generated. It produces sudden, massive displacement, driven by the collapse of basic urban services,” Gusseinov said.

Turkiye fears repeat of Syrian migration crisis

Among Iran’s neighbours, only Turkiye, Iraq and Pakistan have extensive experience of hosting large refugee populations.

Imtiaz Baloch, an independent researcher focusing on conflicts in Pakistan and Central Asia, said that if the crisis in Iran deepens, many Iranians could seek refuge in neighbouring states, particularly Iraq and Turkiye.

Analysts say no country faces greater political exposure than Turkiye.

“Turkiye is currently hosting many refugees from Syria and other countries. A new influx of Iranian migrants would likely intensify the humanitarian burden and create new challenges for both host countries and international relief agencies in the coming days,” Baloch said.

Turkiye shares a 530km (329-mile) border with Iran and allows visa-free entry for Iranian citizens. It already hosts the world’s largest refugee population, including roughly 3.6 million Syrians, and anti-immigrant sentiment has hardened within domestic politics over the past decade.

Turkiye’s interior minister, Mustafa Çiftçi, said earlier in March that the government had prepared three contingency plans for the war in Iran.

The first involves intercepting migration flows within Iranian territory before they reach the border. The second proposes establishing buffer zones along the frontier. The third would allow refugees to enter Turkiye under controlled conditions as a last resort.

Turkish authorities say they have already strengthened the border with Iran, adding 380km (236 miles) of concrete wall, 203 optical towers and 43 observation posts – undertaken, according to a Turkish Ministry of National Defence statement issued in January, as the US was building up its armada in the Gulf late last year.

“Although there is currently no mass migration detection at our borders, additional measures have been taken on the border line, and these measures will be implemented if needed,” the Defence Ministry stated on January 15.

So far, this has not been necessary. According to Turkish government data on the movement of people from Iran, 5,010 entered Turkiye from between March 1 and 3, while 5,495 exited.

But Turkiye has felt the effects of the war’s spillover in other ways. On March 9, NATO confirmed it had intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace. The debris landed near Gaziantep, in the western-most part of the country, about 50km (31 miles) from the Syrian border. Iran denied that it was behind the attack on Turkiye.

Crisis on an unprecedented scale?

What makes the current situation in Iran particularly urgent is the scale of its population, say analysts.

Syria had approximately 21 million people at the start of its civil war. Iran has roughly 90 million. The Syrian conflict caused more than 13 million people to be displaced, including more than 6 million who fled the country.

A proportionate displacement from Iran would represent a humanitarian crisis with few modern parallels. To put it into perspective, if a country of 90 million experienced the exact same scale of crisis as Syria, nearly 56 million people would be forced to flee their homes, and nearly 26 million of them would become international refugees.

Gusseinov said such a scale of displacement and the capacity of international aid agencies is “fundamentally mismatched”.

Furthermore, Iran itself hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations: about 3.7 million displaced people, most of them from Afghanistan.

“Any mass displacement from Iran, therefore, creates a dual crisis: Iranian civilians fleeing outward, and Afghan and Iraqi refugees who were already in Iran being displaced a second time, or pushed back to countries that cannot absorb them,” he said.

Iraq and the South Caucasus face difficult choices

Although most population movement is still taking place within Iran rather than across its borders, Iran’s neighbours do have cause for concern, analysts say.

“Iran’s neighbouring countries are already dealing with their own crises, which limits their ability to absorb a potential refugee influx. Countries such as Syria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are facing varying degrees of economic, political, or security challenges. These internal pressures make it difficult for them to accommodate a large influx of refugees,” Gusseinov told Al Jazeera.

Iraq, which shares Iran’s longest border, faces a particularly complex situation.

The country is not only a potential destination for Iranian refugees, but has also been caught in military exchanges between Washington and Tehran. US forces have targeted armed groups operating from Iraqi territory, while Iran and pro-Iran armed groups have struck – or attempted to strike – US military and diplomatic positions inside the country.

The UN’s International Organization for Migration says disruptions on the Iranian side of the border have led to the closure of several crossing points, although Iraqi crossings remain technically open. Meanwhile, the UNHCR says it is monitoring developments closely, and that the Iraqi government would lead any emergency refugee response.

The semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, which, unlike the rest of the country, still allows visa-free entry for Iranian passport holders, adds another layer of complexity.

The region hosts several Kurdish armed groups, some of which have reportedly been in discussions with Washington about receiving military support in return for joining the war against Iran. The development has prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to strike Kurdish positions inside Iraqi territory.

Baghdad has publicly stated that it will not allow its territory to be used to infiltrate Iran, but experts on the region say its ability to enforce the position is limited.

Further north, the South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have each expressed concern while attempting to carefully balance relations with both Washington and Tehran.

Azerbaijan has closed its land borders to routine traffic, requiring government approval for any crossing, while Armenia’s border with Iran, which is just 44km (27 miles) long, remains open.

“Armenia is a small economy already absorbing Russian and Ukrainian migrants,” Gusseinov said.

Pakistan and Afghanistan confront overlapping crises

To Iran’s east lie Pakistan and Afghanistan, each grappling with existing refugee pressures.

According to the UNHCR, since October 2023, about 5.4 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan, many not by choice.

Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, a huge wave of Afghans sought refuge across the country’s borders, fearful of economic collapse and security threats.

The UN and international migration agencies estimate that between 1 and 1.5 million Afghans fled to Iran in the immediate aftermath of the US withdrawal, pushing the total Afghan population in Iran to upwards of 5 or 6 million.

Concurrently, hundreds of thousands of newly displaced Afghans crossed into Pakistan, joining a long-established refugee community there and swelling the total number of Afghans in the country to more than 3 million.

In response to this influx and citing domestic economic and security pressures, both Pakistan and Iran initiated aggressive mass deportation campaigns, forcing millions back into Afghanistan. Between late 2023 and the end of 2025, between 2.8 million and 3.5 million Afghans are thought to have been sent back.

Pakistan’s stringent repatriation plans pushed out more than 1.3 million people, while Iran drastically accelerated its expulsions, deporting nearly 2 million individuals in 2025 alone.

According to the UNHCR, in 2026 so far, more than 232,500 Afghans have returned to their country, including 146,206 from Pakistan and 86,253 from Iran.

The primary concern now is that the war in Iran could accelerate these returns, pushing people into communities already struggling to cope and potentially triggering further onward migration. The UNHCR has also warned that largescale and hurried returns of refugees could trigger further instability in the region.

Further complicating the situation, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been engaged in fighting, as Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is providing a safe haven to armed groups launching attacks at Pakistan. Kabul has consistently denied the presence of any such groups on its soil.

Another bout of hostilities in October 2025 led Pakistan to close its borders with Afghanistan. Since then, Afghanistan’s trade and economic ties with Iran have deepened.

“Destabilisation of the Iranian economy, therefore, hits Afghanistan through two channels simultaneously: reduced trade flows and refugee return surges,” Gusseinov said.

Meanwhile, Pakistan faces its own geographical and security challenges.

The country’s border with Iran runs through Balochistan, its largest but most volatile province, where separatist sentiment has simmered for decades. The province has seen an increasing number of attacks by armed groups seeking independence from Pakistan. In February this year, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the province, and claimed it had killed 216 fighters in targeted offensives.

While Balochistan’s provincial officials say they have sufficient resources to accommodate refugees if large numbers begin arriving across the southern border, researcher Baloch said the reality was more complicated. Any refugee crisis, he said, could make the situation in Balochistan difficult for Islamabad to manage.

“Balochistan’s porous border is next to Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, a region that has historically been home to various separatist groups. Any significant influx of refugees across this border could impose additional security and economic costs on Pakistan,” Baloch said.

“Right is right, wrong is wrong, and Trump’s wrong.” Former Marine Brian McGinnis, whose hand was broken by police and a congressman earlier this month in a protest at the US Capitol, says Donald Trump is “wrong” when it comes to the joint US-Israeli war on Iran.

Mérida, March 16, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan and Colombian high-level delegations met at the Miraflores Palace in Caracas on Friday, March 13, to advance a strategic roadmap for binational integration. 

The summit, which focused on bilateral trade, energy, and security, culminated in the announcement of Venezuela’s first-ever export of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to its western neighbor.

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez led the Venezuelan delegation in the talks, overseeing a satellite broadcast of the first trucks from state oil company PDVSA carrying butane gas across the Simón Bolívar International Bridge from Táchira to Norte de Santander.

“This is the first step… the first LPG export from Venezuela to Colombia,” Rodríguez stated to reporters, characterizing the shipment as a symbol of the “Bolivarian spirit” of integration.

Beyond the immediate truck shipments, officials announced plans to revitalize the Antonio Ricaurte transnational gas pipeline. The project aims to facilitate the direct export of Venezuelan natural gas to Colombian markets, a move described by both governments as essential for regional energy security. 

However, Colombian President Gustavo Petro noted via social media that full interconnection remains contingent on the lifting of US sanctions given the need for infrastructure repair works. For her part, Rodríguez reiterated calls for the Trump administration to remove unilateral coercive measures against the Caribbean nation.

“Unilateral coercive measures against the Venezuelan people affect the peoples of Latin America,” she said.

The 225-kilometer Ricaurte pipeline was completed in 2007 and was initially used for Colombian gas shipments to Venezuela. Plans to reverse the flow beginning in 2016 were hampered by US sanctions.

The Caracas summit also saw delegations review the recovery of commercial ties since the reopening of the border in 2022. According to figures shared during the meeting, binational trade has grown from US $220 million in 2020 to over $1.135 billion at the close of 2024.

To sustain this momentum, officials announced that the Administrative Commission of the Trade Agreement will be formally installed on March 18. The agency’s agenda will focus on achieving “zero tariffs” for specific goods and promoting binational tourism. 

The Colombian delegation also emphasized the importance of the Monómeros petrochemical company, noting that its operation at full capacity is vital for Colombia’s food security. The agrochemical producer was placed under the control of the US-backed Venezuelan opposition by former Colombian President Iván Duque. The company was plagued by corruption scandals before being returned to the Venezuelan government’s control in 2022.

Monómeros, a major supplier of fertilizer for Colombian potato, coffee and palm oil producers, remains restricted by US sanctions, with Venezuelan plans to sell the company to the Colombian state contingent on US Treasury approval.

The two countries’ delegations likewise addressed joint security concerns during the Friday talks, activating an immediate coordination mechanism for sharing military and police intelligence. 

The stated objective is to dismantle drug trafficking networks and counter irregular armed groups operating along the 2,200-kilometer border region. Petro described the goal as a the creation of a “Binational Zone of Peace,” emphasizing the importance of integrated military efforts to protect the territory.

The Caracas summit took place following the suspension of a planned meeting between Rodríguez and Petro at the Atanasio Girardot Bridge on Friday due to “force majeure.” Colombian outlets reported security concerns but offered no specifics.

Despite the setback, the Venezuelan government reaffirmed that the presidential invitation remains open and that the working groups at Miraflores had secured the “roadmap” for the coming months. 

Colombian Foreign Minister Rosa Villavicencio, who led the Petro government’s delegation, praised the Caracas summit as a “great success” and vowed that “no one can split the Colombian and Venezuelan peoples” due to their shared history.

In the wake of the meeting with Colombian counterparts, Rodríguez announced the appointment of Admiral Orlando Maniglia as the new Venezuelan Ambassador to Colombia. Maniglia, who previously served as Minister of Defense and Ambassador to Germany, will replace Carlos Eduardo Martínez.

The two countries’ integration agenda will continue with the meeting of a bilateral commission on April 23 and 24 in Maracaibo, Zulia state. The upcoming summit will focus on migration, citizen rights, and the facilitation of free circulation across the border.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.

“If they rebuild and you return, we will kill you.” 

That was the threat Abubakar Dalwa received before fleeing to Maiduguri, Borno State’s capital in northeastern Nigeria, on the night of March 8. Abubakar was sitting in the compound of his home in Dalwa, a recently resettled community in Konduga, a few kilometres from Maiduguri, with his children and wife. The children slept curled together on a plastic mat while his wife tended a pot over the fire. It was during Ramadan, the Islamic month of fasting, and she was preparing the meal they would eat before dawn.

Then the gunfire came in rapid succession around 10:20 p.m. The children woke up as Abubakar and his wife rushed them inside the room. Moments later, someone began knocking impatiently on the door.

“Open this door,” the person shouted. Abubakar’s wife clung tightly to him. He stepped outside and opened the door. About ten armed men stood in the darkness. Most wore military camouflage. Others were dressed in black uniforms. Belts of ammunition hung across their shoulders, some trailing toward the ground.

“They told me, ‘Get out and leave for Yerwa [Maiduguri],’” Abubakar recalled. The terrorists said they had come to burn the buildings. “They told me the buildings belonged to the government,” he added. “They said their fight was with the government, not us.”

Abubakar did not argue. By then, it was nearly midnight. He gathered his wife and children and fled into the darkness. “We left without taking anything,” he said.

Behind them, the town burned, and three people were killed: a man, a woman, and her baby. The man’s daughter survived but was shot in the leg. She was later taken to the Maimalari Cantonment Hospital in Maiduguri.

By 2 a.m., Abubakar and his family had reached the city. Soldiers received them at a military checkpoint. They were displaced again. 

The assault on Dalwa was not an isolated raid. On the same night, another attack was unfolding hundreds of kilometres away in Kukawa. A member of the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) stationed there said the terrorists attacked around midnight.

“They killed our men, including our Commanding Officer, carted away weapons and vehicles, burnt one building,” he said.

The seizure of weapons and vehicles during these attacks has become a recurring feature of recent raids across Borno, weakening security formations in rural areas and forcing some forces to consolidate around larger bases closer to Maiduguri.

How the attacks unfolded

In Dalwa, the attack lasted about an hour. A frontline member of the NFSS said the terrorists entered the town after overpowering the security units stationed there. “We knew they would overpower us from the first sounds of their gunfire,” he said.

Many of the terrorists carried heavy weapons, including PKT machine guns capable of sustaining rapid fire; others carried rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs).

The terrorists strategically positioned themselves in Dalwa. “They went from house to house,” the NFSS member said. “They ordered residents to leave the town.” Then they began setting buildings on fire.

Security officers attempted to resist the attack. They sought reinforcements from Maiduguri, but the vehicles sent to support them ran into buried landmines. Two soldiers were killed in the explosions. “And so we retreated,” the NFSS member said.

According to the volunteer security operative, the attackers approached Dalwa in coordinated groups. One group blocked the road leading to Damboa. Another positioned itself at the entrance of the town near a cemetery on the outskirts. A third group advanced directly into the town to engage the security forces.

“They came through the eastern side,” he said. “That used to be the original Dalwa before the first displacement.”

The security volunteers estimated the number of attackers to be between 80 and 100. Most of them arrived on foot, while others rode on motorcycles, they said.

During the March 8 attack, only about 20 soldiers were stationed in the town. Volunteer forces, including members of the NFSS, CJTF, and repentant terrorists known locally as “the hybrid”, numbered fewer than 100. Five days before the raid, surveillance drones had spotted terrorists gathering in nearby areas. “We anticipated the attack,” the NFSS member said.

But anticipation did not stop it. “The attacks keep increasing,” he added. “More than the previous year.”

In Kukawa, the insurgents used similar tactics. A CJTF member stationed there said the attackers arrived in three coordinated groups. One advanced toward the military base. Another waited on the outskirts of the town. A third group positioned itself along the road leading to Cross Kauwa to ambush reinforcements. He claimed that more than 200 fighters participated in the assault.

“They came mostly on foot,” he said. “They were all wearing military camouflage.”

The fighting lasted about three hours. After the terrorists withdrew, the commanding officer of the base, Umar Farouq, pursued them with a convoy, which was later ambushed, and most of his men were killed.

A pattern of attacks on rural security

The recent attacks on Dalwa and Kukawa are part of a broader pattern. Across Borno State, terrorists have increasingly targeted military bases, convoys, and resettled communities, often ambushing reinforcements and seizing weapons and vehicles during the attacks. Security volunteers say these raids are gradually weakening smaller rural security formations and concentrating forces around larger garrison towns closer to Maiduguri, leaving many outlying communities increasingly exposed.

The incidents suggest a deliberate campaign by terrorist groups, particularly the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Their strategy appears to involve weakening security forces, isolating rural communities, and driving civilians out of resettled towns. These attacks are occurring against the backdrop of a significant government policy.

Over the past years, the Borno State government has implemented a resettlement programme to close camps for internally displaced persons and return families to their hometowns.

The resettlement schemes started in 2020 when the state government began rebuilding homes, schools, clinics, and public facilities in previously abandoned communities as part of what was described as a transition toward a “post-conflict recovery phase”. Thousands of displaced residents have been moved out of camps in Maiduguri and returned either to their original communities or to nearby host settlements considered relatively secure.

But the recovery effort depends heavily on movement. Contractors, labourers, and materials must travel from Maiduguri into rural areas. That movement has increasingly become a point of vulnerability. Roads leading to resettled communities have suffered damage or been mined, isolating towns and delaying military reinforcements. When security forces attempt to respond, they often encounter roadside bombs or ambushes along the routes connecting rural communities to larger bases. Military installations themselves have also become targets. Such attacks on bases allow terrorists to seize weapons, vehicles, and ammunition that can be used in subsequent operations while weakening already thinly stretched security formations in rural areas.

On March 5, terrorists attacked a military base in Konduga, burning several buildings. A member of the Nigerian Forest Security Service (NFSS) told HumAngle that several soldiers were killed, and vehicles and weapons were stolen. Two days earlier, on March 3, the insurgents attacked Ngoshe, a town under the Gwoza Local Government Area (LGA) that had been resettled since 2020. The attackers first targeted a military base before spreading through the town and setting houses ablaze. Local sources and survivors said the attack lasted several hours and forced thousands to flee. Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, condemned the attack on March 6, describing it as a “heartless assault on helpless citizens” and directing security agencies to rescue those abducted.

Earlier attacks followed a similar pattern.

On Feb. 14, terrorists attacked a military base in Pulka, about ten kilometres from Ngoshe. On Feb. 5, another attack targeted a base in Auno along the Maiduguri-Damaturu road, according to a military source who asked not to be named. Several soldiers were killed, and vehicles were taken.

On Jan. 28, about 30 construction workers were killed in Sabon Gari in Damboa. The same day, terrorists attacked an army base in the town, killing nine soldiers and two members of the CJTF. A military base in Damasak was also overrun by terrorists, who killed seven soldiers, captured 13 others, including their commanding officer. 

Earlier incidents also targeted reconstruction efforts and security infrastructure. On Dec. 25, 2025, a suicide bomber detonated at a mosque in the Gamboru Market area of Maiduguri. Five people were killed, and 35 others were injured. On Nov. 17 of the same year, workers fled after terrorists stormed a construction site in the Mayanti area of Bama. In the same town, terrorists attacked the Darajamal community in September last year, killing at least 63 people, including five soldiers, and burning about 24 houses.

On Nov. 20, the attackers invaded a CJTF base in Warabe, killing eight people and leaving three others missing. On Nov. 14, terrorists ambushed a military convoy along the Damboa-Biu road. Two soldiers and two CJTF members were killed. Brigadier General M. Uba, the Brigade Commander of the 25 Task Force Brigade, was abducted and later killed.

HumAngle has previously reported that terror groups have undergone several technological shifts that have expanded their attacks and operations, including the use of drones. Despite the violence, the resettlement programme continues. On Jan. 28, the Borno State government received about 300 Nigerian refugees from Cameroon and resettled them in Pulka. The government later received 680 more refugees on Feb. 8.

Why are the attacks happening?

Umara Ibrahim, a professor of International Relations and Strategic Studies at the University of Maiduguri, said the attacks may be aimed at constraining the government’s resettlement efforts.

“Because their movements are observed and monitored, and perhaps challenged, it is not in their interest for resettlement to proliferate,” he told HumAngle during a February interview.

The attacks also serve a logistical purpose.

“Some of their tactics include ambushing and carting away weapons and supplies from peripheral bases in unfortified areas,” the professor said. “It also includes attacks on bases, especially in places where backup might take time to arrive.”

As attacks on rural bases continue, residents and volunteer security operatives say the shrinking presence of security forces in some outlying communities is raising fears that large parts of rural Borno may again become vulnerable.

Many of these families, now fleeing towns like Dalwa, had already experienced displacement. Some years ago, insurgent violence forced them to abandon their homes and seek refuge in camps around Maiduguri. When the government announced resettlement plans, they returned. They rebuilt their lives slowly. Children went back to school. Farmers returned to their fields.

Now they are running again, and the promise of returning home is once again slipping out of reach.

Members of the NATO alliance are denying U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that they send warships to help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after frequent Iranian attacks. As we noted yesterday, the president said that “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”

Germany on Monday outright rejected the demand.

“This is not our war; we did not start it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin on Monday. “We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end to the conflict, but sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that.”

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul doesn’t see NATO playing a role in dealing with the blockade of the Strait.

“I don’t see that NATO has made any decision in this direction or could assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz,” he said Monday ahead of a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels. “If that were the case, then the NATO bodies would address it accordingly.”

Wadephul added that despite the volatile situation in the Middle East, Ukraine remained Europe’s top security priority, the BBC noted. When the prices for oil and gas rise, he explained, it contributes to Russia’s war chest.

Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel offered a blunter response to Trump’s demand.

“Blackmail is not what I wish for,” he stated, adding that NATO is there to react when members are attacked, not for all defensive or military requests, Bloomberg News noted.

“I want to remind that none of us has been directly attacked,” he said. “There are no grounds for now to invoke Article 5,” he added, referencing the alliance’s collective defense clause.

Germany and Luxembourg joined Japan and Australia in rejecting Trump’s call for help in reopening the Strait, at least for now.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said while the Strait must be reopened, it is not up to the alliance to do so.

“Let me be clear, that won’t be, and it’s never envisioned to be, a NATO mission,” he said, adding that Britain will not be “drawn into the wider war.”

Britain “is working with allies on a ​collective plan to reopen ‌the Strait of Hormuz and restore freedom of navigation in ​the Middle East ​but it will not be ⁠easy, ” Starmer posited, according to Reuters.

“Ultimately, ​we have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability ​in the (oil) market. That ​is not a simple task,” Starmer ‌told ⁠reporters.

Britain and Germany, after Australia, become the latest allies not jumping to send warships to protect the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump wants. https://t.co/wxDkAnoIa4

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 16, 2026

Some nations are willing to listen to any plan Trump might present to NATO.

“We have to look into it and consider it,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Bloomberg TV in an interview in Brussels. “I would look for an in-depth debate within NATO.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski concurred.

“If there is a request with NATO to discuss the issue, we will of course consider it out of respect and sympathy for our allies,” he said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas encouraged member states to consider expanding their Aspides naval mission, originally launched in 2024 while Houthis attacked shipping in the nearby Red Sea.

“If we want to have security in this region, it would be easiest to already use the operation we have in the region and maybe change a bit,” Kallas said.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz hurts the global economy and helps Russia fund its war.

It is affecting our partners in the region and is dangerous for global energy supplies.

Today, EU Foreign Ministers will discuss how to better protect shipping in the region, including… pic.twitter.com/iJSVdT7FqA

— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) March 16, 2026

While the Aspides vessels are currently allowed to navigate in the Strait of Hormuz, its mandate doesn’t allow more than that,” Bloomberg News posited, adding that EU countries would have to unanimously agree to change those directives, which could be difficult.

“There is no change to Aspides mission or posture,” Lt Colonel Socrates Ravanos, an Aspides spokesman, told us on Monday. “EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to carry out its mandate, ensuring the protection and security of commercial maritime traffic within its area of operations.”

The operation’s “assets in the area of operation monitor the situation closely and remain vigilant,” he continued. “Maritime security developments in the region are continuously assessed in coordination with partners and relevant maritime authorities.”

Concern over Iranian attacks in the Strait date back many decades. Back in 2012, The Washington Institute estimated that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class (mine counter measure) MCM vessels.


The Washington Institute estimated years ago that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class MCM vessels.⁰
The Navy has three MCM-equipped LCS in the region. https://t.co/vFTRppfdwL

— Hunterbrook (@hntrbrkmedia) March 13, 2026

As we previously reported, however, the last four of those decommissioned vessels left Bahrain in January aboard a larger heavy lift vessel.

The Navy has three MCM-equipped Littoral Combat Ships in the region, Hunterbrook noted. As we reported yesterday, two Independence class Littoral Combat Ships configured for mine-sweeping duties that were previously deployed to the Middle East showed up in port in Malaysia. Both the USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara had arrived in Bahrain in the past year or so to take the place of a group of now-decommissioned Avenger class mine hunters. You can read more about that in our story here.

In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday reiterated that the administration is forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up and do more to open the Strait of Hormuz, and our NATO allies especially need to step up,” she told Fox News. “President Trump has been very frank with our friends in NATO for a very long time… now he’s calling on them to do the right thing.”

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on the administration forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz: “The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up… pic.twitter.com/SgxvPSExab

— RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) March 16, 2026

In his latest update on Epic Fury, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper on Monday said attacks are “zeroed in on dismantling Iran’s decades old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, through a combination of air, land and maritime capabilities. We have successfully destroyed over 100 Iranian naval vessels, and we aren’t done.”

Iranian attacks on shipping seem to have tapered off.

Between the start of Epic Fury on Feb. 28 and March 12, The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office received 20 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. There were 16 attacks on ships, and four reports of suspicious activity. There have been no verified reports of attacks since March 12, according to UKMTO.

Amid the debate on how to protect Strait shipping, the first non-Iranian ship has transited the Strait with its AIS transponder on, according to the MarineTraffic open-source tracking site. Several observers have noted how close to the Iranian shore these ships are traveling. This could be due to Iranian mines, even though Trump on Monday repeated the assertion that Epic Fury attacks have destroyed all Iran’s mine-laying ships. Mines can be laid by small boats and Iran has practices doing exactly this in the past. This could also just be a safe deconfliction corridor Iran is using for safe passage.

The U.S. is “fine” with some Iranian, Indian and Chinese ships getting through the Strait of Hormuz for now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday.

The closure of the Strait has forced several nations to alter their energy policies. Japan started the largest-ever release of oil from its strategic reserves on Monday, according to the Japan Times. The 80 million-barrel effort comes as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and crude oil prices continue to soar.

“The release — 15 days’ worth of domestic demand from mandatory private reserves and one month from national reserves — was the seventh ever conducted in the nation,” the publication noted.

BREAKING Japan says it is beginning the release of its strategic oil reserves after the International Energy Agency indicated that the release would begin in Asia and Oceania before other regions.

Japan depends on the Middle East for 95% of its oil imports pic.twitter.com/XLqWOFJSl6

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 16, 2026

South Korea is also taking action in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz closure. It is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG, explains Bloomberg energies and commodities columnist Javier Blas in a post on X.

South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG

The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation that Europe didn’t have in 2022

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 16, 2026

Beyond attacking shipping in the Strait, Iran is continuing strikes across the region.

The UAE says it is defending against Iranian missile and drone attacks.

Video emerged from the scene of another Iranian attack on the UAE’s Fujairah Port facility, showing thick plumes wafting into the sky.

נמל אלפוג’יירה באיחוד האמירויות עולה באש לאחר שהותקף בידי כטב”ם איראני pic.twitter.com/A1mgsohK1o

— איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) March 16, 2026

An Indian-flagged crude tanker had a close call when the UAE’s Fujairah port came under attack on Saturday while it was loading crude at the oil terminal, according to the Times of India. The vessel sailed out safely the next day with everyone onboard unhurt.

JAG LAADKI an Indian flagged Crude Oil Tanker is being escorted out of the Gulf of Oman by the Indian Navy as maritime security in the region remains tense pic.twitter.com/0YdR06QxDJ

— Damien Symon (@detresfa_) March 16, 2026

Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on X, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.

(Reuters) – Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

Indian authorities…

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 16, 2026

In a brief chat with PBS News, Trump repeated his stance, since denied by Tehran, that Iran wants to negotiate.

“We’re doing very well,” he told the outlet, reiterating comments about destroying Iran’s military. He added: “They want to make a deal but they’re not ready to make a deal in my opinion.”

Just had a brief phone call with @potus this morning and asked him several questions about Iran. He noted when he answered that it was not a good time to chat because he was in the middle of a “very important meeting” about it – but said the following:

— Liz Landers (@ElizLanders) March 16, 2026

In addition to frequent conversations with Israeli leaders, Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.

“According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake, according to The New York Times.

Just as the war is poised to escalate this leak could be adding fuel to fire. According to @nytimes “Mr. Trump is talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the…

— Vali Nasr (@vali_nasr) March 16, 2026

Axios reported that “some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time” before an attack on Iran.

“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,’” the source told the outlet. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.”

A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time.

“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,'” the source said. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.” https://t.co/lJWB1SyOhM

— Axios (@axios) March 16, 2026

The America class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is continuing to speed toward the Middle East after the Pentagon ordered a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to bolster forces in the region. 

The vessel, along with two Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts, was last seen about 420 miles from Manilla, pushing deep into the South China Sea, according to open-source investigator MT Anderson.

“Running an aviation-optimized amphibious assault ship at high speed with a dedicated twin-destroyer escort is a heavily protected, offensive posture,” Anderson assessed. “They are moving with purpose, bringing a major Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) umbrella with them as they sprint toward the theater.”

HIGH-SPEED TRANSIT: USS Tripoli Flanked by Heavy Escorts

OSINT Update (Mar 15 imagery): Tracking the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) as she continues her rapid push toward the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury. She is not making this run alone.

The Fix: Spotted ~678 km from Manila,… pic.twitter.com/Zy8ddlp4lW

— MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) March 16, 2026

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday it had begun a “targeted ground operation against key targets” in southern Lebanon, pushing more forces deeper into the area as part of an expanded buffer zone, The Times of Israel reported. The move came after Hezbollah began attacking Israel earlier this month amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said the operation would continue until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat to the residents of northern Israel, and said displaced Lebanese would not return to their homes until then.

IDF’s 401st Brigade troops of the 91st Division carry out precision raids in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/eYwjr2jwXG

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 16, 2026

Hezbollah reportedly used its Almas missiles for the first time in this conflict. You can read more about these weapons in our story here.

#Lebanon: Hezbollah has used its first Almas missile amid ongoing conflict with Israel.

While Hezbollah primarily uses anti-tank missiles such as the Konkurs and Kornet, the Iranian-made Almas (a copy of the Israeli Spike) offers more advanced capabilities.

As seen in the… https://t.co/kIpei0jLc8 pic.twitter.com/EmW2P1aSVe

— Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) March 16, 2026

The IDF also said it attacked an Iranian space-related compound that researcher Fabian Hinz said was used to conduct research on exoatmospheric guidance.

The Iranians were conducting a lot of research and development work on exoatmospheric guidance technologies as part of their missile and SLV programs. Would not be surprised if they were eventually aiming to develop direct-ascent anti-satellite capabilities as well. https://t.co/sugj1KrDPq

— Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) March 16, 2026

China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy, Al Jazeera reported on X.

BREAKING: China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy. pic.twitter.com/rWyDn2DxgV

— Al Jazeera Breaking News (@AJENews) March 16, 2026

Online flight trackers say a Qatari Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week, following a similar flight the week before.

The nature of these flights is unclear. However, with Rzeszów serving as the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, it is possible the flights may have been delivering air defense interceptors originally intended for Ukraine or transporting Ukrainian counter drone specialists. We just don’t know.

A Qatar Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week.

A UAE Air Force C-17A also carried out a similar flight to the same destination last week.

Rzeszów is the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, so the… pic.twitter.com/o5JjxEulpc

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 15, 2026

The flow of videos out of Iran, already greatly reduced because of the regime’s internet blockage, has slowed even further.

“There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours. I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access,” BBC journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh noted on X.

There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours.

I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access. https://t.co/KOCGBS5fXr

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 16, 2026

Still, some videos are making it out, like this one purporting to show Iranian Basij paramilitary forces hiding in a school.

Basij forces and government security agents had gathered inside a school, a citizen who sent a video to Iran International said. pic.twitter.com/RkEjEtMCMK

— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 16, 2026

UPDATES:

We have concluded our rolling coverage for the day.

UPDATE: 5:48 PM EST –

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi pushed back on claims that he has established backchannel communications with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.

My last contact with Mr. Witkoff was prior to his employer’s decision to kill diplomacy with another illegal military attack on Iran.

Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and the public.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 16, 2026

With speculation rife that is he is badly wounded or perhaps even dead, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will reportedly give a television speech in the coming days. Khamenie, who Iranian officials have admitted was wounded in an airstrike, has not been seen in public since.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry Advisor tells Lebanese Al-Jadeed that the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will deliver a televised speech “in the coming days.”

The advisor stated that Khamenei is in direct contact with military and political leaders, “and the reason for his…

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 16, 2026

Speaking to reporters at The White House, Trump extolled the virtues of the B-2A Spirit stealth bomber.

“Let me hug that little sucker,” he said while asking an aide to hand him a model of the aircraft the president keeps in the Oval Office.

UPDATE: 5:24 PM EST –

MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, home of the command running the war in Iran, is reopening its main gate after a bomb scare earlier today, a spokesman for the 6th Air Refueling Wing, the base host unit, confirmed to The War Zone.

“The incident has been terminated and we are ready to open the main gate and visitor center,” the spokesman told us. The base, however, was not on lockdown.

MacDill is home to CENTCOM, U.S. Special Operations Command as well as the 6th Air Refueling Wing (6th ARW) and the 927th Air Refueling Wing and dozens of other mission partners. Last week, three airmen assigned to the 6th ARW were among six killed in a crash of a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker.

Today’s situation unfolded this afternoon when a suspicious package was found at the Visitors Center near the Dale Mabry entrance gate, according to the FBI. The bureau sent its Special Agent Bomb Techs to the scene, who worked it along with Tampa Police, the FBI said in a post on X.

UPDATE: 4:23 PM EST –

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump seemed surprised that Iran would actually attack its neighbors if it came under fire.

The president was responding to a question about whether he was briefed about possible Iranian strikes on nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.

Trump on Iran:

I heard they were sending missiles to the UAE. I said, “That’s strange, you know? The UAE is like the banker for Iran.” They’re sort of the banker. Qatar, their neighbors — they got along okay.

Then suddenly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait — Kuwait is getting hit. Bahrain… pic.twitter.com/KVVvX1sKMw

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.

🇮🇷📲🇺🇸A direct communications channel between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi & U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official & a source with knowledge. Read the story by @MarcACaputo & me on @Axios https://t.co/izoFpwZV5m

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 16, 2026

Araghchi lashed out at comments made by U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth that America would show “no quarter” in Epic Fury.

“When the U.S. Secretary of War declares ‘no quarter.’ he doesn’t project strength,” Araghchi stated on X. “He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.”

When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn’t project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 16, 2026

The IDF Chief of the General Staff approved plans to continue operations in the Northern Command.

“The impact of the strike and the weakening of the radical regime in Iran is also felt in the campaign against Hezbollah,” said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. “To date, the Northern Command has eliminated more than 400 Hezbollah terrorists.”

הרמטכ״ל באישור תוכניות להמשך בפיקוד הצפון: ״ההדף של הפגיעה והחלשת המשטר הרדיקאלי באיראן מורגש גם במערכה מול חיזבאללה; עד כה פיקוד צפון חיסל למעלה מ-400 מחבלי חיזבאללה״

״אנו נערכים להמשך ומתגברים את פיקוד הצפון בכוחות נוספים על מנת להרחיב את הפעולה הצבאית, להעמיק את הפגיעה… pic.twitter.com/HrBMLk9LFf

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) March 16, 2026

UPDATE 3:50 PM EST –

CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed to The War Zone that more than 200 troops have been wounded or injured across seven countries since the start of Epic Fury. The injuries took place in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and more than 180 troops have already returned to duty,” he explained, adding that 10 troops were seriously injured.

In addition to the wounded, seven U.S. troops have been killed in Iranian attacks, the most serious being March 1 when six Army soldiers were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait. Another six Air Force airmen died when their KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq, reportedly after colliding with another KC-135.

The Washington Post was first to report the latest casualty figures.

U.S. troops have been wounded or injured in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

More here:https://t.co/IRmwkfwWsN

— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) March 16, 2026

CENTCOM released its latest Epic Fury update, saying it struck more than 7,000 targets, flew more than 6,500 combat sorties and damaged or destroyed more than 100 Iranian ships.

Baghdad continues to be hit.

In what looks like a scene from a video game, a counter rocket, artillery, and mortar C-RAM system is seen engaging with a drone over Baghdad.

C-Ram successful interception of a drone/rocket launched by Iranian-backed militias in Baghdad this evening. The Target was the U.S embassy. pic.twitter.com/EuHGx705gR

— Steven Nabil (@thestevennabil) March 16, 2026

Footage of a reported coalition interception of an Iranian drone can be seen in the following video.

Not all the interceptions apparently worked. A drone reportedly slammed into the Royal Tulip al-Rasheed hotel in the Iraqi capital.

The Spanish Ministry of Defense confirmed on Sunday that it temporarily transferred its special forces from Iraq due to worsening safety and failure to conduct missions securely.“The Special Operations Task Group was relocated to safe areas because the security situation prevented it from continuing training operations with Iraqi forces,” according to the ministry.

GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption, according to Kpler.

Hormuz GPS disruption continues

GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption. This interference is triggering false AIS positioning,… pic.twitter.com/VXiaxHwFat

— Kpler (@Kpler) March 16, 2026

Wild video was posted on X of an Israeli interception of an Iranian ballistic missile. No injuries were reported, according to Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel “Mannie” Fabian.

No injuries are reported in Iran’s latest ballistic missile salvo on Israel, the sixth since midnight, and the first in some six hours.

A small number of missiles were launched, which were likely intercepted, according to initial military assessments.

Sirens had sounded across… https://t.co/9JaXEDgJJm pic.twitter.com/5t2YXuw7AQ

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026

UPDATE: 2:42 PM EST –

The war with Iran is expected to last at least another month, according to Israel media, citing a senior Israeli official.

“Israel is reportedly preparing for an extended phase of fighting as it seeks to further weaken the Iranian regime and capitalize on what it views as signs of internal instability within the country’s leadership,” The Times of Israel reported. “According to the source, U.S. President Donald Trump supports Israel in continuing the campaign.”

We reached out to the White House for comment.

❗️ Senior Israeli source: Iran war will continue for longer than expected; we’re preparing to fight for another month at least; Trump is on board.

via N12 News https://t.co/gkDAbmaod1

— Israel Radar (@IsraelRadar_com) March 16, 2026

NATO responded to our query about debate over sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz.

“Allies have already stepped up to provide additional security in the Mediterranean,” a NATO official told us. “We are aware that individual Allies are talking with the US and others on what more they might do, including in the context of security in the Strait of Hormuz.”

In the first 96 hours of Epic Fury, the US-led coalition “expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types,” according to a new report from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).

“This carries a munitions-only replacement bill of $10–$16 billion in four days,” FPRI posited. “This represents a significant industrial burden for replacing some munitions that cannot be replenished in 4 days, 4 weeks, or even 4 months. Worse, those estimates do not include combat losses of warfighting assets or damage to bases and the high-end air defense enabling architecture.”

We have an important new analysis of munitions used in the first 96 hours of the war with Iran out at the @FPRI (Foreign Policy Research Institute).

In the first 96 hours, the US-led coalition expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types. This carries a munitions-only…

— Morgan Bazilian (@MBazilian) March 16, 2026

Video has emerged showing intense flames at Dubai International Airport’s fuel storage area after an Iranian attack.

CENTCOM posted additional video of its attacks on Iranian targets.

Thousands of Iranian military targets have been struck by U.S. forces to neutralize threats posed by the Iranian regime now and into the future. pic.twitter.com/dE4VNxjjW1

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 16, 2026

MT Anderson provided an update on the location of the Tripoli. The ship was spotted on AIS North of the Riau Archipelago, transiting the southern South China Sea at 18 knots.

The Iraqi armed faction Kataib Hezbollah announced the death of its spokesperson, known as Abu Ali al-Askari. He was reportedly killed in a U.S. airstrike after a wave of attacks against U.S. facilities in Iraq.

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
بكل فخر ورضا بقضاء الله وقدره، نزف لكم نبأ استشهاد الحاج أبو علي العسكري إلى جنات الخلد.
  ذلك الصوت الشجاع الذي لم يخرس أمام الظلم، واللسان الصادق الذي زرع في نفوس المجاهدين معاني الإباء والصمود.
  لقد كان الشهيد شريان التواصل بين ميادين التضحية ومنصات…

— صابرين نيوز – Sabereen news (@sabreenS11) March 16, 2026

Six people were injured in a Hezbollah rocket attack in Nahariya, according to medics. The town is located about eight miles south of the Lebanese border.

Six people are injured in a Hezbollah rocket strike on a home in Nahariya, medics say.

Magen David Adom says it treated two adults and four minors with signs of smoke inhalation. They are all listed in good condition.

The IDF says the impact was caused by a rocket launched from… pic.twitter.com/IeKGd0amAB

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026

Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry (MFA) condemned the latest Israeli incursion into Lebanon.

“The Netanyahu government’s collective punishment and genocidal policies in Lebanon will lead to a new humanitarian catastrophe in the region,” the MFA said in a statement on Monday. “We reaffirm our solidarity with Lebanon amid these attacks, which violate its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

UPDATE: 1:50 PM EST –

Speaking at a board meeting of the Trump Kennedy Center, the president claimed he predicted that Iran would attack shipping in the Strait.

NOW – Trump says he predicted Iran would weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, adding, “I predicted all of it. I predicted Osama bin Laden would knock out the World Trade Center. I made that prediction a year before he did it.” pic.twitter.com/6VqkvzamW0

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 16, 2026

The president added that he does not know Iran mined the Strait.

He also said the U.S. has hit 7,000 targets since launching Epic Fury.

Trump on Iran:

Since the beginning of the conflict, we struck more than 7,000 targets across Iran; these have been mostly military and commercial targets. pic.twitter.com/ppiyztSRDj

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

France has reportedly boosted its deployment of Rafale fighters to Jordan and UAE to 24, more than double the usual 10, according to French defense observer Tom Antonov. The jets have already intercepted dozens of Iranian drones, he added in a post on X.

The MQ-9 Reaper drones have played a big role in the war, and have been heavily targeted by Iran. To date, the U.S. has lost about a dozen Reapers, including one accidentally shot down by an ally, according to The Wall Street Journal.

NATO is considering boosting its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter

“The military alliance already deployed a battery in eastern Turkey to protect an early-warning radar used to track missiles across the Middle East,” the outlet stated. “It’s now considering sending another Patriot missile-defense system to bolster an airbase where American troops are stationed.”

NATO is looking into reinforcing further its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. https://t.co/eQzealf1qp

— Bloomberg (@business) March 16, 2026

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

‘For 40 years, we’re protecting you’: US President Donald Trump criticises allies’ reluctance to commit forces to open the key waterway for Gulf oil exports.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, which took place amid the escalating Israel-US war on Iran.

A prominent hotel in central Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone was struck by a drone, amid reports that Iraqi air defences intercepted an attack over the United States Embassy.

The strike on Monday evening hit the top floor of Al-Rasheed Hotel, causing damage but no casualties, according to two Iraqi security officials cited by The Associated Press (AP) news agency.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Security sources told the Reuters news agency that two Katyusha rockets had been intercepted that evening near the US Embassy in the Green Zone, which houses diplomatic missions as well as international institutions and government offices.

Earlier Monday, the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah announced that Abu Ali Al-Askari, a prominent security official with the paramilitary group, had been killed, without giving details on the circumstances.

Kataib Hezbollah is one of the largest groups in the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) operating in Iran, which was founded in 2014 to stop lightning advances by ISIL (ISIS).

On the same day, AP reported that six PMF fighters were killed in a strike on a checkpoint in western Iraq’s Anbar province, and two others were killed in a separate strike on the headquarters of a PMF brigade in the same area.

Two Iraqi security officials told AP that the Majnoon oilfield in Iraq’s southern Basra province was targeted by two drones. No casualties were reported, and it was not immediately clear if there was damage to the facilities.

Iraq’s oil industry has been severely impacted by the US and Israel’s war on Iran and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil trading corridor.

Iraqi Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul-Ghani said in a video statement on Monday that a pipeline from the northern city of Kirkuk to Turkiye would be operational within a week, allowing the country to resume its oil exports, which have been interrupted by the ongoing war.

Also on Monday, air defences intercepted and shot down a drone near Erbil airport in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, according to security sources.

Emergency responders carried patients out of a government hospital in Odisha, India, after a fire killed at least 10 ICU patients, according to officials.

Speaking at the Oval office, US President Donald Trump stated that Somalia is a “fourth world nation” while repeating claims without evidence that Congresswoman Ilhan Omar had illegally entered the country by marrying her brother. Omar has consistently denied the “sick” allegations.

MCC Resources Sarl, a mining company in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has suspended its activities in the country, following an attack on its mining sites in the Mambasa territory of Ituri province. On the night of March 11 to 12, terrorists attacked the mining site, killing scores, looting, and destroying facilities. 

The Allied Defence Forces (ADF), an affiliate of the Islamic State, recently claimed responsibility for the attack. Local sources told HumAngle that the ADF members came from Bapere, in Lubero territory of North Kivu. MCC Resources Sarl is a Congolese company with foreign investors, operating in compliance with the laws and economic standards of the DRC.

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack on gold mining sites operated by the Chinese Kimia Mining Enterprise, publishing photographs that showed burning trucks, tractors, and camps. 

The new attack is fueling debates on the realities faced by economic operators in the strategic gold mining zone, as well as on the impact of armed violence on the national mining investments in the DRC

“In an official correspondence addressed to the military governor of Ituri, the MCC Resources management indicates that due to the persistent degradation of the security situation in the Eastern part of the country, it had proceeded with the preventive evacuation of its personnel several weeks before the attack. According to the company, the incursion of armed groups not formally identified in the Muchacha site has led to acts of looting and sabotage aimed at its mining installations, without, however, causing the loss of human lives,” the company revealed in a statement released on March 15.

Faced with security risks deemed very high, MCC Resources announced the suspension of all mining activities at its Muchacha and Mavuvu sites until further notice, adding that its employees and partners remain its top priority. The company says it is following the evolution of the security situation to envisage, at the right moment, the progressive resumption of its operations.

The Congolese government has condemned the attack. In a communique also published on March 15, the government extended its condolences to the families of the victims and expressed its compassion to the populations of Mambasa territory affected.

Rescuers have pulled civilians from the rubble after a new wave of US-Israeli strikes targeted Tehran. Residents said that a neighbourhood was attacked, leaving several people trapped under the destruction.

As the war US-Israeli war on Iran enters its third week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that his country has shown it is ready to take the war “as far as necessary” and that the conflict must end in a way “that our enemies will never again consider repeating these attacks”.