Finance Desk

Shares fell on Wednesday in Europe and Asia, and oil prices surged nearly 6% after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran was over, raising the prospect of renewed military conflict between the two countries.

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Asked whether the memorandum of understanding with Iran was over, Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them,” according to Reuters.

This came after US Central Command said its forces struck more than 80 targets in Iran overnight, including command-and-control networks, coastal radar installations, anti-ship missile capabilities and vessels operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Washington also revoked a waiver that had allowed Iran to restart oil exports.

Brent crude, the international standard, jumped more than 6% by 10:45 CEST to $78.79 a barrel, while US benchmark crude rose 6.3% to $74.88 a barrel. Both had declined recently to around the levels seen before the war with Iran began in late February.

The latest flare-up, despite commitments to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict, has added to uncertainty over oil prices after they fell from their peak well above $100 during the war. It also comes amid worries that the craze for artificial intelligence-related shares has pushed prices beyond the productivity gains and profits likely to result from massive investments in computer chip production capacity and data centres.

“As such, geopolitical headlines will likely determine market sentiment over the coming hours. A further deterioration in the situation could weigh further on equity valuations along with rising stress in technology,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote said in a commentary.

Stock markets fall

In share trading, Germany’s DAX shed more than 2.2%, at around 11 CEST, while the FTSE 100 in London lost 1.5%, and France’s CAC 40 fell more than 2%.

US stock futures were down about 1% at the same time.

In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.1% to 66,819.05, while South Korea’s Kospi shed 5.4% to 7,246.79.

The South Korean index has soared and then fallen back, briefly surpassing the 9,000 level last month before succumbing to heavy selling in AI-related technology shares such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Samsung fell 6.3% early Wednesday after dropping about 7% the day before. SK Hynix reversed early gains to fall 5.7%.

Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose 3% to 24,193.56.

Shares in Chinese AI model start-up Zhipu, also known as Z.ai and traded as Knowledge Atlas Technology, rose nearly 14% on Wednesday.

The Shanghai Composite index declined 0.5% to 3,970.88.

On Tuesday, the roller-coaster ride for AI stocks turned lower again, dragging Wall Street down. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, though the majority of stocks within the index rose.

Losses among AI-related stocks dragged the Nasdaq Composite 1.2% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%.

Advanced Micro Devices sank 6.5%, Intel shed 9.7%, and Micron Technology lost 4.7%.

SpaceX, which owns the xAI business, fell 6.8% on its first day of trading in the Nasdaq-100 index.

Rivian Automotive dropped 18.1% after the electric vehicle company said it would sell 75 million shares, diluting existing shareholders’ stakes.

In currency trading early Wednesday, the US dollar rose to 162.26 Japanese yen from 162.11 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1426 from $1.1414.

The second half of the year rests on a delicate chain of dominoes, according to a new briefing from Oxford Economics, and whether the US-Iran peace agreement holds is the factor that determines how the rest fall.

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“Its durability will determine whether the global economy gets an energy-driven disinflation tailwind or absorbs a second oil shock,” stated chief global economist Ryan Sweet in the report, calling the deal “the key domino that will determine whether other risks are amplified or dampened”.

The consultancy expects the global economy to accelerate, forecasting annualised growth of 3.1% in the second half against an estimated 1.6% in the first, powered chiefly by cheaper oil feeding through to household incomes, although Sweet puts the odds of reaching a durable deal at “a coin flip”.

If the truce holds, Oxford Economics sees Brent crude averaging in the low $70s per barrel, easing inflation and financial conditions across emerging markets and tech valuations.

If it breaks, the consequences would not stay contained to the oil market.

Early on Wednesday, the US military attacked Iran after it said Tehran struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with strikes targeting Bahrain and Kuwait. The regional crossfire raised the risk that the interim agreement to halt fighting in the war could break down. However, the exchange of fire followed a pattern of similar attacks during the deal’s shaky ceasefire, and neither country immediately signalled it would step away from the negotiating table.

Oil prices reacted to the attacks by increasing more than 3% by Wednesday morning, with international benchmark Brent trading above $76 a barrel.

“A peace deal breakdown won’t just raise oil prices, it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions, and could shift the outcome of the US midterms and Israeli elections […] the cascade runs fast,” Sweet stated.

A coinflip with a $20 spread

Not everyone shares Oxford Economics’ outlook for oil prices.

Morgan Stanley’s mid-year outlook, published in May, forecast crude climbing back to roughly $90 a barrel by the end of the year, a gap of some $20 compared with Oxford Economics’ forecast that amounts to two different bets on the same peace process.

The World Bank is also more cautious, forecasting Brent crude to average about $94 a barrel this year while warning that global GDP growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026.

Reflecting on how the recent exchange of attacks is testing the fragile truce, Sweet said, “Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a good bellwether. The deal committed to fully restoring traffic through the chokepoint within 30 days, making mid-July the first hard deadline,” he explained.

“A sustained return to 75% or more of pre-war traffic by mid-July would increase the odds that the agreement is holding and vice versa,” Sweet concluded.

The other indicator, he says, is whether Iran formally invokes the accord’s Lebanon clause over Israeli strikes, and whether its response comes in military or rhetorical form.

Tariffs, trade and AI

Trade is another risk that could reshape the outlook.

US Section 122 tariffs are due to expire on 24 July, but Washington has already lined up replacement levies under Section 301. Oxford Economics expects the changes to push effective tariff rates higher from late July as the US seeks to maintain monthly tariff revenues of between $25 billion (€21.8bn) and $30 billion (€26.2bn).

Europe is also taking a tougher stance. The European Commission has more than 50 trade-defence investigations open against China, up from 17 a year ago, and plans to unveil a broader economic security strategy by September.

These trade tensions also feed into the AI boom that has powered financial markets this year.

Oxford Economics notes the US AI industry depends heavily on semiconductors and other hardware shipped from Northeast and Southeast Asia, the regions with the most to lose from any further disruption to commodities passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the umbrella body for central banks, warned that the AI boom increasingly rests on opaque “circular financing” between chipmakers, cloud giants and artificial intelligence labs, as well as lightly regulated private credit, where lending to the sector has quadrupled in five years.

The BIS’s Asia-Pacific chief, Zhang Tao, cautioned that the sector’s reliance on non-bank funding means an AI downturn could trigger a sharper and faster correction than a traditional banking crisis.

Sweet modelled what such a reversal could look like.

“We have created a so-called tech bust scenario where US technology stocks fall by 25% over the course of a year,” he told Euronews.

According to Sweet, such a shock would cause the US economy to “grind to a halt”, spilling over to technology exporters and investor sentiment worldwide, leaving global growth 1.1 percentage points below Oxford Economics’ baseline next year.

Central banks, ballots and the calendar

The final dominoes are policy and politics.

Oxford Economics expects the major central banks to prove more dovish than financial markets currently anticipate, though they could pivot quickly if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz falters or AI-input prices signal supply stress.

The nearest test is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision under chair Kevin Warsh later this month, coming on the heels of June’s soft jobs report.

Beyond that lie November’s US midterms and Israel’s general election, due by late October, both of which could influence the Middle East peace process. In September, German state elections could also test the coalition behind Germany’s fiscal policy, a key driver of the eurozone economy.

Oxford Economics also flags genuine upside, from stronger AI-driven productivity to an EU economy that weathered the second quarter surprisingly well.

Whether the resilience in Europe is real will show up first in Germany and in credit data, Sweet argues.

“If corporates were absorbing margin compression from the jump in energy prices without cutting investment and drawing down credit lines, that would strengthen the case that underlying momentum in the economy is better than we expected,” he told Euronews, adding that a contraction in eurozone bank lending would push the other way.

It is important to highlight that the typical Oxford Economics forecast miss is nearly a full percentage point, and the range around this assessment in particular is wider than usual.

Published on 07/07/2026 – 11:28 GMT+2•Updated
11:34

The South Korean technology giant Samsung said on Tuesday it expects operating profit of about 89.4 trillion won (€51bn) for the April-June quarter, roughly nineteen times the 4.7tr won (€2.7bn) it earned a year earlier and more than it made in the previous three years combined.

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The extraordinary numbers reflect the same force reshaping the memory industry worldwide: the race to build AI data centres has pushed chip prices to record highs.

According to Citi Research, average selling prices for DRAM memory rose 44% quarter on quarter, and NAND flash 53%, as AI demand spilled beyond specialised high-bandwidth memory into the conventional chips that go into phones, servers and PCs, with customers now chasing longer-term supply contracts.

The estimate beat analyst forecasts, but far from celebrating, the market sold.

Samsung shares fell by over 10% before closing nearly 7% lower, dragging rival SK Hynix and the wider Kospi index down with them.

Samsung’s stock has more than doubled this year alone, so a historic quarter was already priced in, and leveraged local ETF products tracking the shares have made them prone to outsized moves.

There was also a blemish in the numbers as revenue of 171tr won (€97.6bn), though up 129% year on year, came in slightly below forecasts.

“We believe the slight revenue miss was largely driven by more moderate DRAM price hikes than expected, which likely spooked investors who are increasingly pricing in structural strength in memory prices,” said Jing Jie Yu, an analyst at Morningstar.

Hanging over everything is durability.

Investors are increasingly asking whether the technology giants bankrolling the AI build-out can sustain their spending without piling up debt against a payoff that remains unproven, the worry behind last week’s chip sell-off across Asia.

Samsung publishes its full results, with a breakdown by division, on 30 July, a report the market will scour for clues about whether the boom is structural or simply another memory cycle nearing its peak.

Additional sources • AP

China has raised its purchases of oil from the Middle East in recent days, with deep discounts offered by its main supplier Saudi Arabia expected to further boost its buying, the Financial Times reported Monday.

China bought at least 26M

Published on
06/07/2026 – 11:38 GMT+2

The South Korean government intends to set aside the extra tax income flowing from its record-breaking chip industry in a dedicated “future response fund”, the presidential office said, using the proceeds of the AI boom to bankroll public projects ranging from industrial infrastructure to support for younger generations.

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Behind the windfall sit Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, whose memory chips have become essential to the data centres powering the global AI race.

Their record profits this year have propelled the wider economy, and swollen the government’s tax receipts along the way.

Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik outlined the plan at a meeting between the government and the ruling party on Sunday, saying the fund would help finance large-scale projects built around AI and semiconductors, while also tackling inequality and helping young people with housing, start-ups and work.

Kang warned that the extra revenue thrown off by the chip boom must not be squandered at what he described as a decisive moment for the country’s future.

No figure was provided for the fund’s size, as the government will consider its use at a fiscal strategy meeting this month before consulting the public.

In an interview with the Dong-A Ilbo newspaper, Kang added that part of the money would go towards the utilities on which chip plants depend, above all power and water.

A boom that keeps giving

The windfall reflects an extraordinary run for Korea’s chipmakers.

Samsung shares surged more than 170% in the first half of the year, and SK hynix shares rose more than 300%, carrying both companies past $1 trillion (€874bn) in market value.

Samsung is due to publish preliminary second-quarter earnings on Tuesday, while SK hynix plans to raise 45 trillion won (€25.7bn) through a listing on the Nasdaq.

Both are also part of an 800 trillion won (€457bn) public-private push, unveiled last week, to build a new chipmaking hub in the country’s southwest.

How the windfall should be spent has become a live political debate.

In May, presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom floated using it for start-ups, young people, basic income schemes in rural and fishing communities, and support for artists.

The boom has also emboldened workers as Samsung averted a major walkout in May by agreeing to a bonus deal with its largest union.

Additional sources • AFP

Foxconn’s (FXCOF) June revenue surged 52.11% year-over-year, and it forecast a growth outlook for the third quarter but cautioned about a “volatile global political and economic situation.”

The company saw a record second quarter revenue, which also beat analysts expectations, on ​strong demand

Wall Street ended the holiday-shortened week higher as investors looked past softer-than-expected labor market data and increased bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates before year-end.

The June jobs report showed the U.S. added just 57,000 jobs, missing expectations, while the