United States President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he wishes to “take the oil” in Iran, as the US-Israel war against Iran enters its second month.
On Monday, President Trump threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, including oil wells, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been under a de facto Iranian blockade for weeks, triggering a global energy crisis.
The Trump administration has unveiled no clear goal behind its military campaign against Iran, one of the world’s biggest oil producers and under US sanctions for decades.
Here is more about what Trump says, how much oil Iran has, and whether Trump could take it.
What has Trump said about Iran’s oil?
Trump told the Financial Times that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and that US forces could seize Iran’s export hub at Kharg Island.
Kharg is a 22-square-kilometre (8.5-square-mile) coral outcrop in Iran’s Bushehr province. Closely guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), entry to the island is restricted to those with official security clearance.
Kharg processes 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports, handling approximately 1.5 million barrels every day.
On March 14, Trump announced that the US Air Force had bombed Iranian military facilities on the island.
“For reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Critics say the Trump administration was emboldened by the success of its brazen military operation in January to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas. Washington says it is now in control of Venezuela’s oil exports.
Earlier this month, Trump claimed that 100 million barrels of Venezuelan oil had been brought to refineries in Houston, Texas in the US. He added that an additional 100 million barrels of Venezuelan oil were on the way.
Ties between Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil, and Washington had deteriorated under former President Hugo Chavez, who decided to nationalise the oil sector. Relations collapsed further under Maduro, who succeeded Chavez in 2013. Venezuela’s current interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, has since opened the sector for private investment.
How much oil does Iran have?
Iran is one of the world’s biggest oil producers.
The country holds the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves and the third-largest crude oil reserves, according to the United States Energy Information Administration.
Iran holds around 24 percent of the Middle East’s and 12 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, with about 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil.
It is the ninth-largest oil producer globally, and the fourth-largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), producing about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.
Before the war, Iran was exporting around two million barrels of crude and refined fuel each day, though its exports dropped dramatically after Trump slapped sanctions on Iran in 2018 during his first term in power. The Iran nuclear deal signed under US President Barack Obama in 2015 – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – placed limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief in place for decades.
The US cut diplomatic ties with Iran after pro-Washington ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was toppled in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis involving US citizens.
Can the US seize Iranian oil?
The Pentagon is preparing for limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials quoted by the Washington Post newspaper.
The plans, which fall short of a full invasion, could involve raids in special operations and by conventional infantry troops, the newspaper reported on Saturday.
However, even if the US invades or occupies Kharg Island, this would not give the US access to Iranian oil.
In order to access Iranian oil, the US would have to occupy Iran’s oil production sites and refineries. In essence, the US would need to occupy mainland Iran.
What would it mean if the US were to take Iranian oil?
In 2023, Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) was around $457.5bn, according to World Bank data.
In the same year, Iran’s net oil export revenues were estimated at $53bn.
That export figure is equivalent to roughly 12 percent of Iran’s GDP, although export revenues and GDP are not directly comparable.
At the same time, if the US were to lift sanctions on Iranian oil after seizing it, it could lead to a flow of more Iranian oil into global markets, bringing down oil prices.
Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The US first imposed sanctions on Iran in November 1979, after Iranian students stormed its embassy in Tehran and took Americans hostage. The hostage crisis ended when dozens of US citizens were released after more than a year.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has sent global oil prices soaring. Benchmark Brent crude rose to more than 3 percent on Monday to $116 a barrel – the highest level in nearly two weeks. The oil price was about $65 per barrel before the war.
Has the US tried to interfere in Iranian oil before?
Yes; this is not the first time the US has shown an interest in Iranian oil.
In 1953, the government of Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s first democratically elected prime minister, was toppled in a CIA-orchestrated coup after he nationalised the British-controlled firm Anglo‑Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), the predecessor of modern-day BP.
Washington framed the operation – codenamed “Operation Ajax” – as a Cold War necessity to keep Iran and its energy reserves out of Soviet hands.
The coup restored and entrenched the shah’s rule, a turning point that still haunts Iran’s relationship with the West.
Neighbouring Iraq’s oil revenue is still effectively under US control more than two decades after the US invaded the Middle East nation. Iraq’s oil revenues are deposited into an account at the Federal Reserve Bank in the US before making it to Baghdad.