Yemen

Taiz, Yemen – Hajja Fatima Mohammed Saleh, a 70-year-old Yemeni woman, is among the countless people and families displaced from Taiz governorate, southwest Yemen, in recent fighting between government forces and the Houthis.

The Iran-backed rebel group, also known as Ansar Allah (supporters of God), now controls most parts of northwestern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa.

Saleh’s village in Maqbanah district, on the border of Yemen’s western coast, is situated at the epicentre of last week’s Houthi assault in which the group captured the whole of the Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha.

At least 100,000 people have now fled their homes following renewed fighting between the two sides, according to the United Nations’ refugee agency, most leaving with few belongings due to the speed of the Houthi offensive.

Saleh said she had to leave her wheelchair behind as it was unsuitable for the rugged terrain her family had to navigate to find shelter.

“The attack was massive, we had never seen anything like it before. Shells were falling heavily on the village, and bullets were flying in every direction,” she told Al Jazeera.

“We had no choice but to leave and flee to a safe place. We left everything we owned and walked a long distance on foot. For me, I suffered especially because I am disabled and cannot walk, so I had to crawl – using both hands – for a long distance through rain and floods before we found a vehicle to carry us.”

UN agencies and the internationally recognised Yemeni government say that Taiz governorate has witnessed most of the displacements, with Taiz City among the Houthis’ next targets after their victory on the Red Sea coast. This means the humanitarian situation could worsen even further.

Ali al-Shumairi, director-general of the Executive Unit for the Management of IDP Camps in Taiz governorate, told Al Jazeera that 65,845 people were displaced between August 10 and September 15. About 95 percent of those displaced come from the five districts which witnessed the heaviest fighting: Jabal Habashi, al-Maafer, Maqbana, al-Wazi’iyah and Mawza.

Fighting has intensified on several fronts in Yemen as government forces have carried out air attacks on Houthi positions in attempts to retake Mocha, days after the group captured the strategic port city, tightening its grip on the Red Sea – a vital shipping lane.

This development has placed the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the strategic waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean, at the heart of the war between the United States and Iran, and amplifies pressure on global trade routes.

Yemen’s more than 10-year civil war was reignited in July, threatening a United Nations-brokered truce that halted large-scale violence in 2022, after the Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and began targeting its ships in the Red Sea.

Forces affiliated with Yemen’s internationally recognised government have launched a campaign against the Houthis on a number of fronts since last week. They have retaken some positions and are advancing in the southwestern Taiz province as clashes intensify.

Osama al-Wafi, supervisor of the Mushrifa camp in Wadi Bikhawlan in Taiz governorate and a representative of the Yemeni government’s Executive Unit in Jabal Habashi district, described the situation as “dire and tragic”.

“These people have been displaced and have lost all the basic necessities of life, after having homes, farms, and livestock. Now they are only looking for a shelter to house them,” al-Wafi told Al Jazeera.

He said the number of displaced people arriving at the camp is steadily rising, with more than 1,500 families entering over the past six days, most living in the open due to a lack of shelter.

The al-Munij camp in the al-Bireen area, about 40 kilometres southwest of the semi-besieged city of Taiz, has become a temporary refuge for Yemenis fleeing the area after another bout of conflict between government and Houthi fighters in 2020.

Over the years, al-Munij has extended over a space of two square kilometres to house more displaced families, while other larger camps have been established in the area. Most residents complain they lack access to the most basic services – such as sporadic drinking water supplies and few toilets – in the camps.

Hajj Saif Qaed Thabet, 73, has been living with his wife and four children in an exposed space with no doors since arriving at al-Munij on September 10. He left behind a farm and livestock from his home in al-Kadaha, western Taiz governorate.

“We were displaced because of the war, fleeing bullets and artillery shells falling over our heads. Since arriving at the camp, we have been living like this, waiting for our situation to be addressed and for us to be housed in a suitable place,” said Thabet. “Praise be to God in all circumstances.”

Malouk Ahmed Ali, 55, from the al-Kadaha area in Taiz, said her family of 14 all escaped drones, shelling and gunfire on foot, including five children under her care, seven under her daughter’s care, and her elderly grandmother.

“We fled to an area near our village in the hope that the war would calm down quickly and we would return to our homes, but the clashes expanded until they reached us, so we were displaced again to here aboard a military vehicle that came to transport the threatened homeless people,” she told Al Jazeera.

“When we arrived at this camp, we were received and placed in this small tent as temporary housing for all members of the large family. Although they took all our information, our situation has not improved much so far, and we still hope it will improve.”

Ali hopes the war will end soon so she can return home but believes her family’s possessions, including solar panels and a battery, will have gone.

“As for our livestock, most of them died, some fled to the mountains and valleys, and what remained was looted,” she said.

WASHINGTON — A bold military push by Iran and its proxies to create a choke hold on global oil supplies has once again caught the Trump administration off guard, threatening a market shock and a steep political backlash in the U.S. midterm elections.

A drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s most crucial pipeline, which siphons crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, has led to the line’s closure, potentially taking 4% of the world’s supply off the market.

And a lightning advance by Iran-backed Houthi rebels along Yemen’s Red Sea coast threatens commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, second only to Hormuz in its importance to regional shipping.

The strikes put the Trump administration in a newly precarious position less than two months until the November midterms. President Trump’s military advisors have warned him that any retaliation could lead to a further depletion of critically low U.S. munition stockpiles, endanger American personnel in the field and risk escalation that could spiral out of Washington’s control.

A semi prepares for departure from a Pilot fuel station Monday in Buda, Texas.

(Brandon Bell / Getty Images)

On Tuesday, the global price of oil topped $107 a barrel — the first time in U.S. campaign history that an incumbent president has faced rising pump prices at this stage of an election.

The Iranian strikes come as Europe and the United States are facing increased energy needs entering the fall and winter months, and as Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have surged, pushing diesel prices up to record highs.

Signs are emerging that the latest attacks could trigger an acute market panic, with Brent crude buyers paying a steep premium for early delivery — an indication that the industry fears an impending supply crisis.

“I fear there is a considerable risk of much higher gas and diesel prices in the weeks to come,” said Michael O’Hanlon, director of research of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.

“No one is quite sure how to predict the fuel markets,” he added, “but the military dynamics are seriously worrisome.”

Last week, Trump told reporters that the Iranian government is “desperate to try and affect the election” and could be trying to keep oil prices elevated to hurt Republican prospects.

“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning.

(Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images)

Polls have found that likely voters are prioritizing the economy far beyond any other policy matter going into the fall election season, with a New York Times poll published Tuesday showing voters trusting Democrats to handle the economy more than Republicans.

“There’s no quick fix,” said Simon Henderson, the director of the Washington Institute’s Gulf and Energy Policy program. “The main question is whether it is a big shock to the oil market or just another more minor shock. The answer depends on whether the damage to the East-West pipeline cable is repaired quickly.”

Region on edge

The latest Iranian campaign threatens Saudi Arabia’s economic core, straining a long-standing alliance built on robust U.S. defense of Riyadh’s vital interests.

The attack on the East-West oil pipeline originated in Iraq, where Iran continues to operate proxy militias, according to government officials in Riyadh and Baghdad. Saudi Arabia agreed not to retaliate militarily against targets on Iraqi soil, temporarily staving off a regional conflagration.

While the Iraqi militia group denied involvement, it also praised the Houthi advance in Yemen and the militants’ “ongoing battlefield victories against Saudi forces.”

Israel has been providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence to help thwart further attacks, using American military intermediaries, according to Israeli media reports.

Active combat in the war between Iran and the United States eased after a ceasefire was brokered in June. While that truce collapsed in July, the two sides have opted for asymmetric tactics over the resumption of direct attacks, with the United States maintaining a full naval blockade of Iranian ports.

The Trump administration has since focused instead on targeting Iran’s economic partners with aggressive secondary sanctions, seeking to further pressure Tehran into a meaningful peace agreement. But negotiations have failed for months to get back off the ground.

When he first launched the war in February, Trump projected the mission would last roughly six weeks. He said the goal of the U.S. operation was to incapacitate Iran’s ballistic missile program, its navy and its nuclear program.

Trump was warned ahead of the war by his joint chiefs of staff that Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz in response. But he dismissed the threat, anticipating Tehran would quickly back down from a direct confrontation with the United States.

More than six months on, Iran’s ballistic missiles continue to pressure U.S. defense systems across the Middle East. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and discussions on Iran’s future nuclear work have broken down. In private, Trump administration officials fear the war could drag through the remainder of the president’s term.

Fighting is continuing along Yemen’s western front, with government forces reporting strikes against Houthi positions in areas stretching from Taiz toward the Red Sea coast.

The government said on Monday that its forces targeted Houthi personnel, equipment and positions in Dhu Bab in Taiz governorate and Khokha in neighboring Hodeidah governorate.

The areas are strategically important because they lie along Yemen’s western coastline near the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s key maritime chokepoints connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and wider Indian Ocean.

Dhu Bab is close to Bab Al-Mandab, while Khokha lies further north along the Red Sea coast. The fighting is taking place along territory that links the front lines around Taiz with Yemen’s strategically important western coastline.

Yemen’s armed forces spokesman, Col. Majid Al-Nazili, said government forces targeted Houthi equipment, personnel and positions in the two areas.

Military commanders also visited several front lines around Taiz, including areas near Bani Omar, Jardad and Al-Wazi’iyah, to assess combat readiness.

Maj. Gen. Abu Bakr Al-Jubouli, commander of the Tor Al-Baha axis, said government forces had inflicted heavy losses on the Houthis during recent clashes.

Tehran, Iran – Another attempt to clinch a deal between Iran and Oman to restore some traffic to the Strait of Hormuz has been set back by a lack of regional consensus on the future of the waterway.

Officials from Iran, Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations – minus objecting Bahrain – were scheduled to meet in Oman’s port city of Salalah on Monday to confer on new temporary routes in the Strait of Hormuz amid Tehran’s ongoing hot-and-cold war with the United States.

On Sunday night, the region’s officials announced the postponement of the meeting, without giving a new date. None of the stakeholders gave any indication that the postponement was directly linked to recent Houthi and Iraqi militia attacks on Saudi Arabia.

However, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Saudi objection was the reason for the postponement, without providing further details.

US media outlets Axios and CNN reported that Saudi Arabia had submitted amendments to the Iran-Oman proposal for Hormuz because it had concerns that the wording would establish a new status quo which would be unacceptable to Riyadh.

It comes days after Saudi Arabia shut down its critical East-West oil pipeline – the kingdom’s key route for energy exports – after drone attacks in the area originating from Iraq. US President Donald Trump said these attacks were likely conducted at Tehran’s behest.

Saudi Arabia has also faced repeated attacks by the Houthis, who took control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast over the weekend.

Hours after the Salalah meeting was postponed, the Saudi civil defence issued alerts for Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran in southern and western parts of the kingdom. The Houthis claimed to have fired dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at military facilities in Khamis Mushait, in retaliation for air strikes across Yemen, which it blames on Saudi Arabia.

What comes next?

Iran has said it will engage with the US on the future of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war only if there are tangible moves to lift Washington’s naval blockade on the country and return to the June memorandum of understanding.

With continued disruptions to the passage of vessels through the strait, Iran has signalled that it intends to continue pursuing the bilateral agreement with Oman over Hormuz, which it said was finalised last month.

“In consultation with Oman, in the next step, we will make a decision on how to announce or register the agreement,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters during a weekly news conference on Monday.

When the two countries initially advanced the bilateral deal, Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of US talks with Iran.

Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that Tehran wants to use its leverage over Hormuz for regional legitimacy – and ultimately to pressure the US.

“The broader the regional buy-in, the harder it becomes for the US to dismiss the arrangement as an Iranian diktat,” he told Al Jazeera.

GCC states, suffering from a sharp decrease in energy receipts, want ships moving and their economies insulated from a war they neither started nor can end. But Vaez said Washington is unlikely to lift the blockade on Iran even if the region blesses the arrangement between Muscat and Tehran.

“[The US] will find it much harder to sustain a policy that its own partners increasingly see as perpetuating the crisis,” Vaez said

Temporary entry and exit

The Omani-Iranian planned agreement envisions temporary entry and exit routes for commercial vessels in the strait, with Tehran repeatedly stating that this would not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened.

Iran and Oman are the only two countries with territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed inbound corridor reportedly goes through Iranian waters, while the outbound corridor mostly passes through Omani waters, with small parts still in Iranian territory.

During Monday’s scheduled meeting, Iran and Oman were supposed to share precise maps and discuss the details of the routes with GCC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, and Iraq, which is outside the bloc. The deal could reportedly include voluntary tolls to fund navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue operations.

Bahrain, which has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks since the US-Israel war on Iran started at the end of February, said it would not participate in the forum since it would amount to “appeasement”. The Tasnim news outlet, affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed Israel pushed Bahrain to refuse participation.

How does Yemen fit in this picture?

The latest diplomatic movement comes after days of explosive developments in Yemen, when the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, essentially took control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea after a lightning offensive against government forces.

Thomas Juneau, assistant professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, said the Houthi advances represent a significant gain for Iran. Its Yemeni allies’ position in the Red Sea offers Iran an important new bargaining chip in future negotiations with the US.

“The Houthis are not a simple arm of Iranian foreign policy. They operate largely based on their own interests, and do not take and execute Iranian commands,” he told Al Jazeera. “But Houthi and Iranian interests are largely, if not always fully, aligned. They cooperate closely on the basis of those shared interests.”

Juneau sees the ability for Iran and the Houthis to potentially partially block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb – two of the world’s most crucial maritime bottlenecks – would give them tremendous influence over the global economy, and thus the US.

The Houthis are trying to seize the opportunity to “institutionalise the de facto reality of their veto on maritime traffic” in the southern Red Sea and replicate partial Iranian success in doing the same in the Strait of Hormuz, Juneau said.

Iran has stressed that their allies’ gains in the Red Sea cannot be separated from the Saudi-led blockade and attacks on Houthi areas in Yemen since 2015.

“We know very well that continued war between Islamic countries in the region only has one winner, and that winner is no one but the Zionist regime, which is after persisting tensions and conflict in our region and between Islamic countries,” Iranian spokesperson Baghaei said.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says Iran does not interfere in Yemeni affairs.

Iran says a planned meeting with officials from Gulf states to discuss the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed due to “events unfolding in Yemen”.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei, addressing a news conference on Monday, said Oman and Iran “have taken a joint decision aimed at arriving at a responsible” approach to the management of the strait.

He said the meeting, scheduled to take place in Oman, would have been an “opportunity to demonstrate the significance of these decisions”.

“Had this meeting took place, it would have been a very suitable opportunity [to discuss the new policy]. I do not believe any responsible country would accept in any shape, way, or form to be dictated to or be subjected to pressure from any outside forces,” he said.

The Strait of Hormuz, which falls in Iran and Oman’s territorial waters, has been effectively blocked by Tehran amid the US-Israel war on the country.

Baghaei said Iran has “no relations whatsoever with what is unfolding in Yemen”, adding Tehran does not interfere in its affairs. He added that Saudi Arabia requested the postponement of the meeting.

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen have escalated since July, when Houthis, who control large parts of Yemen, declared a naval blockade on their northwestern neighbour. Clashes escalated last week as Houthis seized the port of Mocha, tightening their control over the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Attacks on shipping

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that its forces had intercepted and destroyed an advanced MQ-1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz.

In a statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency, the IRGC said it intercepted the drone using a new aerospace defence system.

Regarding an attack on an Iranian commercial vessel on Sunday that killed one person, Baghaei said two Pakistani citizens working on board were also injured.

The United States and Israel “continue to target security” in the Gulf, he added.

Yemeni government forces have advanced in western Taiz after successfully repelling a Houthi offensive.

Armed forces affiliated with Yemen’s internationally recognised government have retaken positions from the Houthis and are advancing in the southwestern Taiz province as clashes intensify.

Reporting from Taiz on Monday, Al Jazeera Arabic’s Yasser Hassan said forces loyal to the Saudi Arabia-backed Yemeni government advanced in western Taiz on Sunday after successfully repelling a Houthi offensive.

“This comes with the support of air strikes targeting Houthi gatherings. The air force continues to bomb the Houthis. On the west coast in Mocha, Dhubab, and their surroundings,” Hassan said, citing a source in government forces.

In a statement on Monday, the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (supporters of God), said they launched attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia using dozens of ballistic missiles and drones.

The group said the attacks targeted “military facilities and infrastructure, including aircraft hangars, radar installations, runways, ammunition depots and other targets at King Khalid airbase in Khamis Mushait”, Saudi Arabia.

It said the attacks were a response to a Saudi offensive, which involved more than 300 air strikes across Yemen over five days.

There was no immediate comment from Saudi Arabia on the Houthi claims.

On Sunday, the Saudi civil defence agency sent alerts for the city of Abha and the region around Khamis Mushait, but they were quickly lifted shortly afterwards.

Fighting in Yemen’s more than 10-year civil war reignited in July, threatening a United Nations-brokered truce that halted large-scale violence in 2022, after the Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and began targeting its ships in the Red Sea.

The fighting soon spilled over beyond the country’s borders, with the Houthis carrying out air attacks on southern Saudi Arabia, including oil facilities. Dozens of people were wounded in those attacks.

Clashes in Yemen intensified last week after the Houthis captured parts of the country’s Red Sea coast, fortifying their hold on the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a key waterway which handles about 12 percent of global trade, including 11 percent of maritime oil and 8 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The waterway has been an economic lifeline for Saudi Arabia and its oil exports, as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked by Iranian forces since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in February.

The Houthis captured more strategic islands in the southern Red Sea, The Associated Press news agency reported on Monday, citing Yemeni government and Houthi officials.

Houthi fighters were deployed on the islands of Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish about 86 nautical miles (160km) north of the Bab al-Mandeb, according to two government officials and a Houthi official, the AP reported.

Meanwhile, the International Organization for Migration said on Sunday the fighting in Yemen in recent weeks had displaced nearly 86,000 people.

It added that some of those displaced by the conflict were fleeing Yemen altogether, with more than 2,000 people reaching neighbouring country Djibouti.

DUBAI: Fighting in Yemen intensified on Sunday as government forces claimed fresh gains against the Houthis in Taiz, state news agency Saba reported.

Yemeni government forces recaptured positions overlooking the Jardad area in western Taiz and advanced toward Gail Bani Omar, the agency reported citing a military source.

The source said government forces seized military equipment and inflicted heavy losses on the Houthis.

Government aircraft also carried out strikes on Houthi positions, gatherings and vehicles in several parts of Taiz, including Dhubab, Al-Wazaiya and Haifan, according to the source.

An airstrike on a Houthi gathering in the Afira area of Jabal Habshi district destroyed several military vehicles and detonated a stockpile of medium-weapons ammunition, killing at least 10 Houthi fighters, the source said.

The latest fighting comes amid a wider escalation across Yemen, with government forces also conducting operations in Marib, Jouf, Al-Bayda and Al-Dhalea, according to the Yemeni presidency.

President Rashad Al-Alimi has held talks with members of the Presidential Leadership Council, the prime minister, military commanders and provincial officials to assess developments on the various fronts.

He said individual changes along the front lines would not alter the government’s objective of restoring state control across Yemen.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia

The escalation has also extended beyond Yemen’s borders, with the Houthis continuing attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense issued emergency alerts early on Monday covering Khamis Mushait, Abha, Jazan and Najran in the southwest of the Kingdom before announcing that the danger had passed.

Civilian toll rises

The fighting has also triggered a major new displacement crisis inside Yemen.

Yemen’s Ministry of Human Rights said on Sunday that 150 civilians had been killed and more than 200 wounded since Sept. 3 in fighting and attacks in Taiz, Hodeidah and Marib.

The ministry said about 85,000 people had been displaced during the same period, while citing International Organization for Migration data showing that around 2,000 people had arrived in Djibouti as a result of the escalation.

The ministry accused the Houthis of launching ballistic missiles, drones and other weapons on populated areas, displacement camps and civilian convoys.

It also reported attacks on civilian and medical facilities, kidnappings, arbitrary detention, looting and alleged field executions.

The ministry called on the international community, the UN and human rights bodies to protect civilians and displaced people, investigate alleged violations and ensure humanitarian access.

AL-MUKALLA: Yemen’s government forces are better prepared, more experienced and better armed to defend the central city of Marib against any renewed Houthi offensive, a senior military official said, amid reports that the Iran-backed group is massing forces around the province.

Brig. Yahya Al-Hatemi, director of the Yemeni army’s military media, told Arab News that government forces had gained significant battlefield experience during more than a decade of fighting and were ready to repel any attempt by the Houthis to advance on Marib.

“The armed forces have generally become more organized, powerful and effective,” Al-Hatemi said.

“Over the past decade, they have gained combat experience that enabled them to overcome adversity, master military tactics and identify the enemy’s strengths and weaknesses.”

Marib has become one of the most strategically important government-held areas in Yemen since the war escalated in 2015.

It is home to more than 2 million displaced people, major army bases, oil and gas fields and a key power station. The Houthis have repeatedly attempted to seize the city, but previous offensives have failed.

Over the weekend, Yemeni media reported that the Houthis had sent large numbers of fighters and military equipment to areas of Marib province under their control, raising fears of preparations for another offensive.

The reported buildup followed major Houthi gains along Yemen’s western coast, including the seizure of the Red Sea port city of Mokha and advances toward the Bab Al-Mandab area.

Al-Hatemi said the army was aware that Marib could become the Houthis’ next major target.

“We know that the new pressure will be directed at Marib,” he said.

“However, Marib has significant military strength and divine protection. Moreover, the Houthis lack a popular support base there. Quite the opposite: The local environment is hostile to them.”

The Houthis launched a major offensive to capture Marib in early 2021, with fighting continuing into early 2022 and leaving hundreds of civilians and combatants dead or wounded.

The campaign largely subsided following the UN-brokered truce in April 2022, although the Houthis continued launching missile and drone attacks and mobilizing forces around government-held parts of the province.

Military commanders say the situation is different today.

Government forces are operating under a more unified command and have accumulated years of experience fighting the Houthis across multiple fronts.

For the first time in more than a decade, Yemen’s military has also reactivated its air force, which has recently carried out strikes against Houthi positions.

“The armed forces were supplied with military equipment they had previously lacked, while the army and navy were restructured,” Al-Hatemi said.

“In addition, the air force, which had been absent for 11 years, was reactivated.”

Presidential Leadership Council member and Marib Gov. Sultan Al-Aradah expressed similar confidence, saying government forces were capable not only of defending the province but eventually of taking the initiative and launching a broader campaign against Houthi-held territory.

“There is no doubt that Marib is part of the broader battlefields across the country,” Al-Aradah told Saba TV.

“From the beginning, the Marib front has focused solely on victory, supporting the people and supporting all fronts across Yemen. The objective of the forces in Marib and elsewhere is to restore the capital, Sanaa.”

Al-Aradah urged families in Houthi-controlled areas not to send their children to fight alongside the group.

“I hope they do not send their misled children into death traps … horrific slaughterhouses that make one shudder with shame,” he said.

“It is deeply regrettable to witness, right before our eyes, these scenes where hundreds, even thousands, of misled individuals are sent off — unaware of where they are going or whom they are fighting.”

Al-Aradah accused the Houthis of reigniting the war through their latest military escalation and blamed Iran for encouraging the group to reject peace efforts.

He also praised Saudi Arabia for its support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government.

“Our Arab brothers, foremost among them Saudi Arabia, provide great support to the Yemeni people in all fields,” he said.

“They stand by Yemen’s constitutional legitimacy and support the Yemeni people in addressing their economic and humanitarian hardships. They also stand by us in our efforts to achieve stability and prosperity under a legitimate state.”

The renewed attention on Marib comes as the battlefield has widened following Houthi advances in western Yemen.

The militia’s gains around Mokha and Bab Al-Mandab have increased pressure on government forces and raised questions over where the Houthis will seek to concentrate their next major offensive.

For government commanders, however, the stated objective now extends beyond simply defending Marib.

“The priority now is to restore the Yemeni state and rid Yemen of terrorist organizations, foremost among them the Houthis, regardless of their form or nature,” Al-Aradah said.

“This is an irreversible commitment tied to the will of the people. There will be no turning back until the state is restored, whatever it takes.”

Yemeni refugees arrive in Obock, Djibouti, within 24 hours as Houthis tighten their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

About 1,400 people have fled Yemen for Djibouti in a 24-hour period, Djibouti’s economy and finance minister says, as Houthi fighters tighten their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh wrote on X on Saturday: “1,400 refugees arrived in Djibouti from Yemen in just 24 hours.”

In a separate post on Friday, the minister said that 500 refugees had arrived in the coastal city of Obock, including women and children, after they were rescued at sea when their boats ran out of fuel while crossing the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

Obock, a city only about 20 kilometres (12 miles) across the water from the Yemeni coast, has for several years been a preferred arrival point for those seeking refuge from war-torn Yemen. The Bab-el-Mandeb strait is also used in the opposite direction by migrants from the Horn of Africa, who transit through Yemen on their way to Gulf countries.

Safiya Ibrahim, humanitarian response coordinator for the International Organization for Migration (IOM), told AFP that “vulnerable groups such as women and children have reached the shores of Obock, with more expected in the coming days”.

The IOM warned on Friday that at least 46,000 people had been displaced in Yemen since fighting escalated last week.

“Families are being forced to flee for the second or third time in this conflict, with almost nothing left,” Amy Pope, the IOM director general, said in a statement. “As fighting spreads, reaching people with lifesaving assistance is becoming harder. We urgently need safe, unimpeded access.”

Djibouti hosts tens of thousands of refugees and asylum seekers. United Nations Refugee Agency figures from March 2026 show a registered population of more than 36,000, with the majority from Somalia, Ethiopia and Yemen.

The Houthis seized the Red Sea port city of Mocha on Thursday and have since overrun the coastline and islands surrounding the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The rapid offensive has forced thousands of families to flee, with entire villages reportedly emptied in districts such as Maqbanah, Jabal Habashi and al-Maafer.

ADDIS ABABA: About 1,400 people have fled Yemen for Djibouti due to fighting between government forces and Iran-allied Houthis, Djibouti’s minister of economy and finance said Saturday.

Houthi fighters control a large part of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and Hodeida in the west. They have advanced along the coast in just days and on Thursday seized the port city of Mokha.

The Houthis have since taken control of the coastline and islands in the Red Sea, and on Friday tightened their grip on the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, which is vital to global shipping through the Suez Canal.

“1400 #refugees arrived in #Djibouti from #Yemen in just 24 hours,” Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh wrote on X.

Located opposite Yemen on the Horn of Africa, tiny Djibouti borders the Bab Al-Mandab Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea from the Gulf of Aden.

Safiya Ibrahim, humanitarian response coordinator for the International Organization for Migration, told AFP that “vulnerable groups such as women and children have reached the shores of Obock, with more expected in the coming days.”

According to the United Nations, at least 76,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since July, with the number quadrupling in the last week after the latest fighting.

Last week, Houthi fighters launched a new offensive against Saudi-backed government forces, targeting zones bordering the Bab Al-Mandab Strait.

The waterway has taken on new importance, particularly for Saudi oil exports, since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked by Iran.

Hundreds have been killed in the fighting on both sides.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have captured Mocha port and now threaten to control the main waterway of the Bab al-Mandeb strait. They have also attacked several cities in Saudi Arabia, wounding about 70 people, including women and children.

The repeated attacks against Saudi energy, civil, and defence facilities, combined with the maritime blockage by Iran and its Yemeni partner the Houthis, directly raise the question of the Mecca Pact’s operationalisation between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan.

The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia can activate the mutual defence agreement. If that happens, what could a Pakistani and Turkish intervention look like?

The answer to this question necessitates some crucial background first.

The US – the main security partner of the Gulf states – has signalled for a while now that it expects regional countries to take primary responsibility for their own defence and deterrence, with US help remaining critical but limited.

That posture is already visible on the ground. Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, the US has not been able to provide comprehensive defence for its regional partners. On several occasions, it has even failed to stop attacks on its own bases in the Gulf.

With US presence receding and Washington emphasising regional burden-sharing, Gulf states have had to look into a new defence architecture. In September 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed their first mutual defence agreement, which expanded in August this year to include Turkiye and became the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.

The three countries have since established a joint secretariat, with its headquarters in Riyadh, with Pakistan taking the chairmanship for an initial three-year term.

The pact remains in a gestation period. It does not publicly identify the thresholds or scenarios under which a member would move to direct military intervention. Its organisational and institutional structure, including rules of engagement, mechanisms of consultation, and collective defence and deterrence, are yet to be formally developed.

Now, back to the question of how the pact will be operational if a member state is attacked.

Earlier this week, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said that an unprovoked aggression against Saudi Arabia, or a spillover of the Yemen conflict into the kingdom, would make the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement operational, adding that “there should be no doubt in this.”

Asif, however, did not share specific details on what shape that operationalisation would take. Last month, Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan clarified that the Mecca Pact would work the same way as NATO: If a member state is attacked, it must actively request and define the specific type of help it needs.

NATO’s Article 4 allows for a member to call alliance consultations and exchange of information. Article 5 requires mutual assistance from allies, but it leaves each state to decide the nature of that assistance.

In 2012, after Syria shot down a Turkish warplane, Ankara invoked Article 4 for consultation and requested specific defence assistance. Instead of demanding direct military intervention, the Turkish government explicitly asked for Patriot missile defence batteries. NATO approved the request and deployed the systems to protect Turkish airspace.

In this context, if the Mecca Pact is to be operationalised, it would have to be Saudi Arabia that defines the type of military assistance and involvement that it needs. If, for example, Riyadh makes an actual request for Pakistani direct military intervention, beyond materiel and intelligence support, Islamabad would be obliged to comply. But the request, and the scale of the response, would still likely need to be defined and agreed in a consultation meeting.

For now, none of this has been tested as Riyadh has not invoked the pact with either Pakistan or Turkiye.

In the meantime, diplomatic efforts have intensified, with Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud talking to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Islamabad has also publicly urged Iran to rein in the Houthis from attacking Saudi Arabia and threatening the Bab al-Mandeb, and has reminded Tehran of Pakistan’s commitment to Riyadh’s defence through the pact. Ankara would likely play its own part in diplomatically restraining the Houthis and Iran.

If diplomacy fails and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia or the Bab al-Mandeb continue, Turkiye and Pakistan would likely expand the air and technological support they already provide. Islamabad already has an air squadron of about 16 JF-17 Thunder multirole aircraft, defence systems, and thousands of troops deployed in Saudi Arabia.

But a direct military operation by Pakistani forces inside Yemen remains unlikely at the moment. Given the disastrous and lasting impacts of its participation in the Afghan war against the Soviet Union on behalf of the US, Pakistan would be far more wary of joining a war against Iran and its allies, for fear of spillover into its western border provinces’ economy, domestic security, sectarian balance, and societal harmony. Pakistani leaders would find it hard to build domestic consensus for direct attacks on the Houthis or a fight with Iran.

The likely scenario is that Pakistan would increase joint diplomatic pressure on Iran to restrain the Houthis, further augment its support for Saudi defence, and push for a multinational naval coalition to secure the Bab al-Mandeb. Adopting this restraint would still keep the essence of the Mecca Pact intact, while putting more weight behind regional de-escalation.

The new security architecture that agreements like the Mecca Pact are setting up will take years to mature. Until the mechanisms and rules of collective response develop, Pakistan’s existing bilateral defence relationships with Saudi Arabia and other Arab partners will continue to focus on defence needs.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Tehran, Iran – Iranian authorities and state media have praised the Houthis’ capture of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, which some see as giving Tehran more leverage against the United States.

The Houthis, a political and armed group dominated by Zaidi Shia Muslims, have been fighting against the Western-backed Yemeni government since capturing the capital, Sanaa, in 2014.

The Houthis captured a series of Red Sea coastal cities and islands this week, essentially giving them control over the vital Bab al-Mandeb strait.

The Iran-allied group’s recent victories have been praised in Iran, and are viewed by some as part of Tehran’s wider war against the US, ongoing since February 28.

“The victories of Yemen’s Ansar Allah in the western coast is a narrative of a divine triumph and the fruit of years of steadfastness in the most difficult of battlefields,” Hossein Mohebbi, spokesman of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), wrote on X on Saturday.

Amid the Houthis’ recent battlefield wins against the fragmented Saudi-backed forces, senior Iranian officials have cheered their Yemeni allies on.

The Houthis’ capture of the port city of Mocha on Friday delivered a huge blow for the Yemeni government, which now has no direct access to the Red Sea.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iranian parliament speaker and chief negotiator with Washington, reposted a comment made by slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in 2024, saying the “resistance” of the Houthis will inevitably lead to victory.

“The brave Yemeni people will certainly triumph, by permission of God Almighty,” Ghalibaf added on Thursday, in Arabic.

Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the government is happy with the Houthi advances, and urged leaders in the region to pursue “the rationality of liberation from dependency [from the US and the West], and unity under the banner of Islam”.

The “grand victory” of the Houthis once again proved that “security is not a commodity that can be bought,” added Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

How could this benefit Iran?

The Houthis began to attack several vessels in the Red Sea they claimed were linked to Israel in 2023, as part of their stated aim to pressure Israel to end the genocidal war on Gaza.

This prompted bombing campaigns by the US, United Kingdom and Israel against Houthi positions in Sanaa, Hodeidah and other areas.

Saudi Arabia, which joined the war against the Houthis in 2015, has largely stayed out of the current eruption in fighting in Yemen.

After their recent victories, the Yemeni group can now exercise more control over the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

The Houthis’ control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and multiple islands – including the island of Mayun, also known as Perim, sitting about 3km (1.9 miles) off Yemen’s mainland – provides the group with close-range access to the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

A video published on Friday showed a Houthi commander telling soldiers they will no longer need missiles and drones to threaten shipping in the crucial waterway. They could simply position artillery along the coast and fire in all directions at ships, he said.

The Houthis have not declared the strait closed, but the group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said on Friday that “maritime navigation is safe for all companies except for Saudi vessels.”

Likewise, Iran’s partial control of the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula has been a key tool of leverage for Tehran in the war against the US.

The prospect of closing down the strait could potentially be used by Tehran in future negotiations over ending the war with the US.

Iranian officials are expected to meet regional Arab representatives on Monday for talks over how to facilitate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran maintains remains closed.

They have said they favour a collective regional approach on passage through the strategic waterway.

Iran claims it has reached an understanding with Oman, which also has territorial waters in the strait.

The US, which has continued its naval blockade of Iran’s ports and intensified sanctions on Tehran, reportedly opposes the agreement.

Authorities in Tehran have signalled there will be no talks with Washington under the current circumstances.

“As long as the American side does not accept all of Iran’s conditions, dialogue and negotiation are of no use,” Ebrahim Azizi, head of the hardline Iranian parliament’s national security commission, wrote on X on Saturday.

‘Lord of the straits’

At the start of the working week in Iran on Saturday, hardline and IRGC-linked newspapers and media outlets celebrated the recent Houthi advances.

Keyhan, whose editor-in-chief was appointed by Ali Khamenei, called the advances “the miracle of resistance” and said they had “put the US and Israel in a bind”.

The Quds newspaper, published by the influential Astan-e Quds Razavi in Mashhad, called Iran and the Houthis “the lord of the straits”.

But even though Tehran has repeatedly threatened that Bab al-Mandeb could be further disrupted if the war continues, Iran’s diplomatic apparatus did not immediately link the Houthi advances with the current fight against the US.

As has often been the case, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs insisted that the Houthis make their decisions independent of Tehran, with their own interests at heart, including ending Saudi Arabia’s blockade on Yemen.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry also called for an end to the Saudi siege on Houthi-controlled areas, an immediate return to negotiations between the group and Riyadh, and respect for Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The ministry also pushed back on the idea that the Houthis act merely as a proxy for Tehran.

“What is happening now in Yemen is the result of the Yemenis losing patience,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state television on Friday night.

“It is not fair to ignore the fact that they were under a cruel blockade for years, and concluded that the United Nations and regional mechanisms could not resolve the issues.”

The rapid Houthi advance down Yemen’s Red Sea coast this week is an astonishing military victory, but not quite the game-changer it is being portrayed as.

The group has been able to threaten the vitally important shipping route, but they have been doing so since 2023. This new victory consolidates that control, proving that Yemen’s government is not currently in a position to defeat them.

The prior Houthi control over the northern section of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, including the major port city of Hodeidah, has allowed the Iran-allied rebel group, for years, to first attack shipping linked to Israel and the United States – and then, in recent months, Saudi Arabian-linked vessels.

That control also damaged the global economy. Long before the US war with Iran and the transformation of the Strait of Hormuz into a tool to throttle international trade, Houthi attacks around Yemen had turned Bab al-Mandeb into a similar weapon, and led to bombing campaigns against the Houthis by the US, the United Kingdom, and Israel.

Houthi officials themselves have emphasised this, with one leading official, Abdulqader al-Murtada, saying earlier this week that the group did “not need control over Bab al-Mandeb, for the blockade [on Saudi ships] is already in place”. Al-Murtada could point Saudi ships that have avoided Bab al-Mandeb since the Houthis began attacking them in July, even before their latest progress.

However, the Houthi lightning advance makes it even easier for the group to disrupt shipping. They now have access to the Red Sea’s narrow entry point and several islands in it, allowing them to use shorter-range weapons and more easily reach vessels they want to attack and board, as well as potentially using sea mines to further restrict shipping.

Not going away

The increase in the Houthi ability to target shipping – even with the caveats outlined above – does have an impact on market sentiment. Oil prices have increased as traders price in the ability for Iran and its allies to disrupt shipping in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, the two maritime chokepoints of the southern Arabian Peninsula.

However, the consequences of this advance are not limited to the increased ability of the Houthis to attack shipping, but to the increasing reality that the Houthi problem on the Red Sea is not going away.

For months, after Saudi Arabia backed a Yemeni government campaign against southern Yemeni separatist forces earlier this year, the mood had shifted in the country’s anti-Houthi camp.

The perception was that the Yemeni government, led by the Presidential Leadership Council, had finally gotten its act together. President Rashad al-Alimi repeatedly spoke of a unified military chain of command, allowing the military to overcome the divisions blamed for its inability to defeat the Houthis.

Yemeni and Saudi officials had hinted at an anti-Houthi campaign all year. The Red Sea coastline was a possible location: the largely flat geography suited the government, allowing Saudi Arabia to effectively use its air power; much of the population is not made up of the Houthis’ traditional support base; and prior Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping meant that there would likely be international buy-in for such a campaign.

The seizure of the Red Sea coastline has broken all of those narratives.

The momentum the Yemeni government thought it had, even at the start of this week when it claimed advances in al-Jawf, to the east of the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa, is now gone.

After months of projecting unity, Yemen’s anti-Houthi camp is once again turning on itself, trading accusations of blame for the defeat.

Saudi dilemma

The message the Houthis have for Saudi Arabia is clear: ‘Your partners in Yemen can’t defeat us.’

Therefore, the potential Houthi argument is that Saudi Arabia has to make a deal with them and agree to their terms, including Riyadh funding public sector salaries, access to income from Yemen’s oil and gas reserves, and no restrictions on flights and shipping to Houthi-controlled ports.

The Houthis have an incentive to lock in their gains and raise the cost of escalation before Saudi-backed Yemeni forces can reorganise.

Their attacks on Saudi Arabia, escalating in the past week, have been damaging, and the group is promising more if Riyadh increases its military support for the Yemeni government.

The risk of any such intervention is clearly there for Saudi Arabia. But so is the risk of inaction. The Houthis have repeatedly demanded more concessions when they were in positions of strength.

With the Yemen war unresolved, the Houthis may decide to escalate again in the future, even if a deal is agreed now.

And so, policymakers in Riyadh could determine that it makes more sense to make a concerted effort to deal with the problem head-on now, rather than allow it to fester into the future.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) warns that the figure is rising ‘by the hour’ as it calls for safe humanitarian access.

More than 46,000 people have been driven from their homes in Yemen in the wake of the latest escalation in fighting between Houthi rebels and government forces, according to United Nations data.

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) warned that the figure is rising “by the hour” in a statement issued on Friday.

The UN agency called on all parties to the conflict to guarantee safe humanitarian access and protect civilians, aid workers and humanitarian assets on the ground.

“Families are being forced to flee for the second or third time in this conflict, with almost nothing left,” Amy Pope, head of the IOM, said in the statement.

The agency said many people had reportedly fled Mocha with their belongings overnight after the Iran-allied Houthi rebels captured the strategically important Red Sea port city from the internationally recognised government on Thursday.

Entire villages were said to have been abandoned in some areas of the war-torn country. The IOM urged the parties to the conflict to guarantee humanitarian access and ensure the safety of aid workers.

The statement came amid reports on Friday that the Houthis had captured a strategically located island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and now control Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast.

‘Two new crises’

Separately on Friday, the UN also voiced concern over the Houthis seizing a key humanitarian compound and its assets in Mocha, warning that humanitarian personnel and facilities must be protected.

“The compound houses staff of UN agencies working to provide humanitarian assistance to vulnerable communities in the area,” UN deputy spokesperson Farhan Haq told reporters.

All UN personnel working at the compound had left before the seizure and were “safe and accounted for”, Haq added.

Haq stressed that humanitarian personnel, premises and assets “must be respected and protected at all times”, while calling for safe and unimpeded humanitarian access so life-saving assistance can continue reaching people in need.

Farea Al-Muslimi, a Yemen researcher at the London-based Chatham House thinktank, told Al Jazeera that deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Yemen will build on what was already one of the world’s worst crises.

“Yemen was already going through one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world,” Al-Muslimi said.

“It got terribly worse after the Houthis cracked down on aid organisations in northern Yemen. But the war continued despite the fragile truce, and what that meant was the destruction of what remained of the economy, with millions of families left without income,” he said.

Al-Muslimi warned that the latest escalation “will create two new crises”, one being further internal displacement, noting that “we’ve already seen more than 10,000 families displaced in the last week alone”, and the other being rising prices for goods inside Yemen.

“Since this is [happening in] a maritime [trade] corridor, it will, for sure, drive further violence inside Yemen, but also from outside Yemen,” Al-Muslimi added.

“The Yemeni population will continue to suffer, first and foremost, more than anyone else, inside or outside the country.”

NEW YORK CITY: Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the UN warned the Security Council on Thursday that “the international community cannot call for de-escalation” in Yemen “while at the same time allowing the continued flow of support that enables this (Houthi) militia to continue its hostile and criminal conduct.”

The warning from Abdulaziz Alwasil came during an emergency council session to discuss Houthi attacks against the Kingdom this week. It was requested by the UK, the penholder on Yemen, and Bahrain.

He said the latest strikes on Saudi cities, which began on Tuesday, were not an isolated episode but “an extension of a systematic, hostile approach pursued by this militia since its coup against the legitimate Yemeni government in 2014,” and part of a pattern that has also targeted commercial shipping and threatened freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait.

He said a press statement by the council on Aug. 7 condemning Houthi missile strikes on the Kingdom since July 13, and attacks against commercial vessels since July 22, had gone unheeded, and the militia had answered the international warnings with further escalation.

Alwasil said Saudi Arabia had backed nearly every major effort to end the Yemen war — including the Gulf Initiative, the transitional period, the National Dialogue Conference, the Geneva, Kuwait and Stockholm talks, a 2021 initiative and the UN-brokered truce in 2022 — but the Houthis had repeatedly met those efforts with renewed violence.

“My country affirms its legitimate right to defend itself, its citizens and residents, and to safeguard our national resources,” he said, adding that Riyadh “will not hesitate to take all measures necessary to deter Houthi attacks and to protect our security, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

He called on the council to enforce Resolutions 2216, which imposed an arms embargo and sanctions on the Houthis, and 2722, which demanded an immediate halt to Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, and to send “a clear and firm message” that leaves no room for misinterpretation that attacks on the Kingdom must stop.

Yemen’s ambassador, Abdullah Alsaadi, affirmed Sanaa’s “full solidarity with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its leadership, government and people,” and its “absolute rejection of the use of any part of the Yemeni territory as a platform for launching missiles and drones, or for threatening the security of the Kingdom or any neighboring country.”

He said the attacks amounted to the “hijacking” of Yemen’s own sovereign decisions over war and peace, carried out by a militia that operates outside of state institutions and was “militarily and technically supported by the Iranian terrorist regime.”

Saudi Arabia had shown “a great degree of restraint,” Alsaadi said, and been “the principal partner of the Yemeni people and state” in supporting institutions, salaries and services throughout the war. But he cautioned that “restraint should not be misconstrued as weakness.”

The security of Yemen and of Saudi Arabia “cannot be separated from one another,” he added, as he called for full enforcement of the arms embargo on the Houthis, and accountability for those who finance and arm the group.

DUBAI: Renewed fighting along Yemen’s Red Sea coast has put the strategic Bab Al-Mandab Strait back in focus, raising concerns over a key maritime route linking Europe and Asia.

The strait is a narrow passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa that connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean.

For ships travelling between Asia and Europe, it forms part of the route linking the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, making it one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.

Why is it so important?

Bab Al-Mandab is the southern gateway to the Red Sea. Ships travelling through the Suez Canal between Europe and Asia generally pass through the Red Sea and then Bab Al-Mandab before entering the Gulf of Aden.

The route has ships carrying oil, fuel and other commercial goods.

Oil flows through the strait fell sharply after Houthi attacks on shipping began disrupting Red Sea traffic.

The US Energy Information Administration said oil trade through Bab Al-Mandab averaged about 4 million barrels per day in the first eight months of 2024, compared with 8.7 million barrels per day in 2023.

Why does the latest fighting matter?

Yemen’s western coastline runs alongside the strait, making control of nearby territory strategically important.

The port city of Mokha lies north of Bab Al-Mandab, while Dhubab is close to its entrance. Any expansion of Houthi control along this stretch of coast could increase the group’s ability to threaten or monitor shipping through the waterway.

Reuters reported on Thursday that Houthi forces were moving toward Mokha and Dhubab as they sought greater control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast. Yemeni government military sources said this could give the Houthis significant leverage over Bab Al-Mandab.

The reports have not been independently verified, and they do not mean the Houthis control the strait. But any further Houthi advance toward the coast could increase the risk to commercial shipping.

The Houthis have previously targeted commercial vessels in and around the Red Sea, forcing many ships to avoid the route.

What happens if shipping is disrupted?

Ships can avoid Bab Al-Mandab and the Red Sea by sailing around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa.

But that can add thousands of kilometers to some journeys, increasing sailing times, fuel consumption, insurance costs and freight rates.

The consequences can therefore extend well beyond Yemen, affecting the movement and cost of energy, manufactured goods and other products travelling between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

The renewed escalation in Yemen is no longer simply a Yemeni battlefield development. For Saudi Arabia, it is becoming a direct test of national security, economic resilience and the kingdom’s ability to prevent the wider regional war from spilling further across its borders.

The latest Houthi attacks have demonstrated this clearly. Missiles and drones have hit civilian and economic sites in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran, injuring dozens of civilians and causing fires and temporary disruption at energy facilities. The attacks came as fighting intensified in Yemen and around the western coast, while the Houthis continued to threaten maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb.

Saudi Arabia therefore faces two interconnected threats: Attacks on its territory and attempts to disrupt the maritime routes on which regional and international trade depends.

This creates a difficult strategic equation for Riyadh. Saudi Arabia has spent the past several years trying to move away from direct military involvement in Yemen and towards diplomacy, de-escalation and support for a political settlement. A return to an open-ended war would contradict that strategy and impose unnecessary political and economic costs.

But restraint cannot mean accepting repeated attacks on Saudi territory.

A different security environment

The security challenge today differs considerably from the first years of the Yemen war.

Saudi Arabia has strengthened its air and missile defences, improved coordination between its military and security institutions and accumulated considerable experience in countering drones and ballistic missiles. It is therefore much better prepared to defend its territory than it was a decade ago.

Yet the Houthi threat has also evolved.

The group possesses a combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and increasingly sophisticated drones. Even when most incoming weapons are intercepted, relatively inexpensive systems can impose disproportionate defensive costs and create uncertainty around airports, industrial facilities, border communities and energy infrastructure.

This means Saudi security cannot depend on interception alone. No air defence system can guarantee a perfect shield indefinitely.

The strategic objective must therefore be deterrence: Convincing the Houthis that attacks on Saudi territory will impose costs greater than any political or military benefit they expect to obtain.

This does not necessarily require returning to the large-scale military campaign of previous years. Riyadh has more options today. These include intelligence operations, strengthening Yemeni government forces, improving border security, disrupting missile and drone supply networks and, where necessary, conducting proportionate operations against facilities directly involved in attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The distinction is important. Saudi Arabia does not need to choose between doing nothing and returning to a full-scale war.

The economic front

The economic consequences are equally important.

Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters, which makes attacks on its oil infrastructure internationally significant even when physical damage is limited. The latest attacks affected energy facilities and contributed to renewed concern in already nervous global oil markets.

There is an apparent paradox here: Regional instability can push oil prices higher and temporarily increase Saudi oil revenues. But higher prices caused by war should not be confused with economic benefit.

Saudi Arabia’s economic strategy under Vision 2030 depends increasingly on stability, investment, tourism, logistics, technology and the development of major projects outside the oil sector. Persistent missile and drone attacks can raise insurance and transport costs and affect perceptions of regional risk even if the kingdom’s underlying economy remains strong.

The greater strategic concern is maritime security.

Saudi Arabia occupies a strategic position between two of the world’s most important energy corridors: The Strait of Hormuz to the east and Bab al-Mandeb to the west. Disruption of both routes represents a serious challenge not only for Saudi Arabia but for the global economy.

This is why the Red Sea dimension of the Yemen conflict is particularly important. Bab al-Mandeb connects the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. A sustained Houthi ability to threaten shipping there would increase freight and insurance costs and potentially divert vessels around Africa.

Saudi Arabia, however, possesses an important strategic advantage: Its energy infrastructure is not completely dependent on the Gulf. The kingdom can transport significant quantities of oil through its East-West pipeline to terminals on the Red Sea. This provides an alternative to Hormuz and gives Riyadh greater strategic flexibility.

That advantage does not, however, eliminate Saudi Arabia’s exposure to insecurity elsewhere in the Red Sea, including around Bab al-Mandeb.

Protecting Bab al-Mandeb should therefore be understood not simply as a Saudi or Yemeni interest but as an international economic and security requirement.

Avoiding the Houthi trap

The greatest danger for Riyadh may be political rather than purely military.

The Houthis could benefit from drawing Saudi Arabia back into an extensive war. It would allow them to portray the conflict once again as a confrontation between Yemen and an external power rather than a struggle among Yemenis over the future of their state.

Saudi Arabia should avoid this trap.

Confronting the Houthis must remain fundamentally a Yemeni responsibility. The internationally recognised Yemeni government and its forces should carry the principal burden of confronting Houthi expansion on the ground, while Saudi Arabia provides political, economic, intelligence and defensive support.

This is particularly important on the western coast. If the Houthis consolidate their military position around strategic areas overlooking the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, the consequences will extend far beyond Yemen.

The objective should not be to retake Sanaa through another large-scale air campaign or restart an indefinite regional war. It should be to prevent the Houthis from using military force to change the regional balance, threaten neighbouring states or threaten international maritime arteries.

Diplomacy backed by deterrence

Saudi policy is therefore likely to operate on several tracks simultaneously.

First, Riyadh will continue strengthening its air and missile defences and protecting critical infrastructure. Second, it can increase support for Yemeni government forces while avoiding unnecessary direct involvement in ground combat. Third, it will seek broader regional and international cooperation to secure the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb.

At the same time, diplomatic channels should remain open.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly demonstrated its preference for a negotiated settlement in Yemen. But negotiations are sustainable only when both sides believe that escalation carries unacceptable costs.

Diplomacy, therefore, must be backed by credible military power.

Saudi Arabia has strong incentives to prevent Yemen from becoming another permanent front in the wider regional confrontation. The kingdom’s economic transformation requires stability, while its geopolitical interests require secure borders, uninterrupted energy exports and freedom of navigation.

But the same logic that encourages restraint also places limits on it.

If attacks on Saudi cities, civilians and energy infrastructure continue, Riyadh will increasingly regard the issue not as intervention in the Yemeni civil war but as the defence of Saudi territory.

That distinction will shape what comes next.

Saudi Arabia does not need another prolonged Yemen war. Nor does Yemen. But avoiding one requires restoring deterrence while preserving the possibility of a political settlement.

The most effective Saudi strategy, therefore, is neither unlimited escalation nor passive restraint. It is calibrated pressure: Defend the kingdom, strengthen legitimate Yemeni institutions, protect the Red Sea, keep diplomatic channels open and make clear that attacks on Saudi territory will carry consequences.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.