Wars

ISLAMABAD — The United States and Iran began face-to-face negotiations Saturday in Pakistan, days after a fragile, two-week ceasefire was announced, as the war that has killed thousands of people and shaken global markets entered its seventh week.

The White House confirmed the direct nature of the talks, a rare instance of high-level U.S. government engagement with the Iranian government.

Iran’s state-run news agency said three-party talks including Pakistan had begun after Iranian preconditions, including a reduction in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon, were met, and after U.S. and Iranian officials met separately with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The U.S. delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and the Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf were discussing how to advance the ceasefire already threatened by deep disagreements and Israel’s continued attacks against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the most direct U.S. contact had been in September 2013 when President Obama called newly elected President Hassan Rouhani to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The recent highest-level meetings were between Secretary of State John Kerry and counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif during negotiations over the program.

Iran sets ‘red lines’ including compensation for strikes

Iran doubled down on parts of its earlier proposal, with its delegation telling Iranian state television it had presented some of the plan’s ideas as “red lines” in meetings with Sharif. Those included compensation for damage caused by the U.S.-Israeli strikes that launched the war on Feb. 28 and releasing Iran’s frozen assets.

The war has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, 1,953 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states, and caused lasting damage to infrastructure in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries. Iran’s chokehold on the vital Strait of Hormuz has largely cut off the Persian Gulf and its oil and gas exports from the global economy, sending energy prices soaring.

Reflecting the high stakes, officials from the region said Chinese, Egyptian, Saudi and Qatari officials were in Islamabad to indirectly facilitate the talks. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.

In Tehran, residents told the Associated Press they were skeptical yet hopeful about the talks after weeks of airstrikes left destruction across their country of some 93 million people. Some said the path to recovery would be long.

“Peace alone is not enough for our country, because we’ve been hit very hard, there have been huge costs,” 62-year-old Amir Razzai Far said.

Meanwhile, Israel pressed ahead with strikes in Lebanon after saying there is no ceasefire there. Iran and Pakistan have disagreed. The Lebanese state-run news agency reported at least three people killed.

Officials posture over key issues ahead of talks

Ahead of the talks, President Trump accused Iran of using the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies, for extortion, and told reporters Friday it would be opened “with or without them.”

Iran’s closure of the strait has proved its biggest strategic advantage in the war. Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil had typically passed through on over 100 ships a day. Only 12 have been recorded transiting since the ceasefire.

Iran has floated the idea of charging ships, though the idea has been widely rejected by countries including the United States and Iran’s neighbor Oman.

On Saturday, Trump said on social media that the U.S. had begun “clearing out” the strait, but it was unclear whether he was referring to the reported use of mines there or Iran’s broader ability to control the area.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said Tehran was entering negotiations with “deep distrust” after strikes on Iran during previous rounds of talks. Araghchi, part of Iran’s delegation in Pakistan, said Saturday that his country was prepared to retaliate if attacked again.

Iran and the United States outlined competing proposals ahead of the talks.

Iran’s 10-point proposal called for a guaranteed end to the war and sought control over the Strait of Hormuz. It included ending fighting against Iran’s “regional allies,” explicitly calling for a halt to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.

The United States’ 15-point proposal includes restricting Iran’s nuclear program and reopening the strait.

Israel and Lebanon will have direct negotiations

Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are expected to begin Tuesday in Washington, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s office said Friday, after Israel’s surprise announcement authorizing talks despite the countries lack of official relations.

Israel wants the Lebanese government to assume responsibility for disarming Hezbollah, much like was envisaged in a November 2024 ceasefire. But it is unclear whether Lebanon’s army can confiscate weapons from the militant group, which has survived efforts to curb its strength for decades.

Israel’s insistence that the ceasefire in Iran does not include a pause in its fighting with Hezbollah has threatened to sink the deal. The militant group joined the war in support of Iran in the opening days. Israel followed up with airstrikes and a ground invasion.

The day the Iran ceasefire deal was announced, Israel pounded Beirut with airstrikes, killing more than 300 people in the deadliest day in Lebanon since the war began, according to the country’s Health Ministry.

Energy pressures grow

The spot price of Brent crude, the international standard for oil prices, was above $94 on Saturday, up more than 30% since the war started.

And new pressures emerged in Europe for travelers.

The head of Airports Council International-Europe, Olivier Jankovec, warned the European Union that a ″systemic jet fuel shortage’’ could come within three weeks because of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

Jankovec said in a letter obtained by the Associated Press that the crunch could impact the summer travel season and ″significantly harm the European economy.’′

Ahmed, Metz, Castillo and Magdy write for the Associated Press. Metz reported from Jerusalem, Castillo from Beijing and Magdy from Cairo. Associated Press writer Josh Boak contributed to this report.

Lebanon is facing a rapidly worsening food security situation as the fallout from the war involving Iran disrupts supply chains and drives up prices. The warning comes from the World Food Programme, which says the crisis is deepening alongside ongoing displacement and economic strain.

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to stabilise conditions, with continued tensions and regional spillover, including Israeli strikes inside Lebanon, undermining recovery efforts.

From Displacement to Hunger

According to WFP officials, Lebanon’s crisis is evolving beyond displacement into a full scale food emergency.

As conflict intensifies and populations are forced to move, demand for food is rising sharply. At the same time, supply disruptions are making essential goods increasingly scarce and unaffordable.

This combination of rising demand and shrinking supply is accelerating inflation, placing basic food items out of reach for many households.

Collapse of Local Markets

The crisis is not uniform across the country but reflects a fragmented economic landscape

In southern Lebanon, where bombardment has been most intense, more than 80 percent of markets have ceased functioning altogether
In the capital, Beirut, markets remain operational but are under growing pressure from increased demand and limited supply

This two tiered breakdown highlights the uneven but interconnected nature of the crisis, where disruption in one region intensifies strain in another.

Supply Chains Under Strain

One of the most immediate concerns is the rapid depletion of food stocks. Traders report having less than a week’s worth of essential supplies remaining in some areas.

The disruption of key shipping routes and broader regional instability linked to the Iran conflict has made it difficult to replenish these stocks.

Even when aid is available, delivering it has become increasingly challenging. A recent WFP convoy to southern Lebanon took over 15 hours to complete a journey that would normally take only a few hours, underscoring logistical and security constraints.

Ceasefire Fragility and Regional Spillover

The instability of the ceasefire is a central factor in the worsening situation. Accusations of violations, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, and continued military actions in Lebanon are undermining confidence and prolonging uncertainty.

This environment prevents the normalisation of trade routes and discourages commercial activity, both of which are essential for stabilising food supply.

Lebanon’s vulnerability is heightened by its dependence on imports, making it especially sensitive to external shocks in global and regional supply chains.

Implications

The emerging food crisis carries significant risks

A sharp increase in food insecurity among already vulnerable populations
Further displacement as living conditions deteriorate
Greater reliance on international humanitarian assistance

The situation also places additional strain on aid organisations, which must operate under increasingly difficult conditions while demand for assistance continues to grow.

Analysis

The crisis in Lebanon illustrates how modern conflicts extend far beyond immediate battlefields, disrupting economic systems and humanitarian conditions across borders.

The intersection of war, supply chain disruption, and domestic fragility has created a compounding effect. Lebanon’s pre existing economic weaknesses, including reliance on imports and limited state capacity, amplify the impact of external shocks.

At the same time, the breakdown of local markets and logistical bottlenecks reveals how quickly food systems can collapse under sustained pressure. The difficulty in delivering aid further complicates the response, turning what might have been a manageable shortage into a systemic crisis.

The situation also highlights the limits of ceasefires that fail to stabilise broader regional dynamics. Without secure trade routes and consistent de escalation, even temporary pauses in fighting offer little relief to economies and populations already under strain.

With information from Reuters.

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