Donald Trump declared Venezuela’s airspace ‘closed’ on Saturday.
Venezuela has accused Washington of a “colonial threat” against its sovereignty after US President Donald Trump said he was shutting down the country’s airspace.
The Latin American nation is on high alert after United States attacks on boats nearby and a major military deployment in the Caribbean that includes the world’s largest aircraft carrier.
Trump says he is fighting drug trafficking.
But is that the real reason?
Presenter: Bernard Smith
Guests:
Mark Pfeifle – US Republican strategist and a former White House deputy national security adviser
Paul Dobson – Independent journalist and political analyst in Venezuela
Christopher Sabatini – Senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House
U. S. President Donald Trump announced that the airspace above and around Venezuela should be seen as fully closed. This statement comes as the U. S. increases pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s government. Trump has mentioned the possibility of U. S. military strikes against drug boats in the region, which have already claimed over 80 lives, suggesting these strikes could lead to ground actions in Venezuela. Reports indicate that Trump has even discussed a potential call with Maduro regarding a U. S. visit.
The Venezuelan military is significantly less powerful than the U. S. military and suffers from poor training, low wages, and aging equipment. Maduro, in power since 2013, has kept military support by appointing officers to key government positions, but average soldiers earn only $100 a month, far below what families need for basic living. This situation has led to desertions, especially if an attack occurs. Venezuelan troops mainly have experience in dealing with unarmed civilians during protests. Although Maduro claims 8 million civilians are training in militias, estimates suggest only thousands could participate in defense.
In case of an attack, Venezuela is preparing guerrilla-style resistance, involving small military units carrying out sabotage actions. The military has around 5,000 Russian-made Igla missiles, with orders to disperse in the event of aggression. There are also Colombian guerrilla groups in Venezuela and armed collectives supporting the ruling party, which are accused of violent actions and ties to drug trafficking, although the government denies these allegations.
Republican strategist Adolfo Franco talks about the threat of US military action against Venezuela and what he thinks is the Trump administration’s desired outcome.
The United States’ deadly “counter-narcotics mission” off Venezuela’s coast hinges on an unproven drug-smuggling narrative – a familiar pretext for regime change, and one the mainstream media have been quick to echo. Meanwhile, Venezuelans face escalating repression at home.
Contributors: Spencer Ackerman – Author, Reign of Terror and Waller vs Wildstorm Abby Martin – Journalist, The Empire Files Miguel Tinker Salas – Professor, Latin American history, Pomona College “Pablo” – Anonymous Venezuelan journalist
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United States President Donald Trump has said the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela is to be closed “in its entirety”, as tensions between the countries escalate.
There was no immediate response by Venezuela to Trump’s social media post on Saturday.
“To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Trump’s post comes amid weeks of escalating rhetoric by senior US officials against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his government.
While the Trump administration has said it is targeting Venezuela as part of a push to combat drug trafficking, experts and human rights observers have warned that Washington appears to be laying the groundwork for an attempt to unlawfully remove Maduro from power.
The US has deployed an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean and carried out a series of deadly bombings on vessels it accused of being involved in drug trafficking, killing dozens of people in what United Nations experts have described as extrajudicial killings.
Earlier this week, Trump also warned that he would start targeting Venezuelan drug trafficking “by land” soon.
During a speech broadcast on national television on Thursday, Maduro said Venezuelans would not be intimidated.
Venezuela has revoked operating permits for six international airlines after they suspended flights to the country following a United States warning of airspace risk, in the latest point of tension between the two countries.
Last week, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned of a “potentially hazardous situation” in Venezuelan airspace due to a “worsening security situation and heightened military activity”.
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While Caracas said the FAA had no jurisdiction over its airspace, the decision led some airlines to indefinitely suspend flights to the South American country from November 24 to 28, Marisela de Loaiza, president of the Airlines Association in Venezuela, said.
The action comes amid worsening tensions between the US and Venezuela over President Donald Trump’s battle against what he calls ‘narco-terrorism’ in the Caribbean.
Since September, the US has carried out at least 21 strikes on vessels it accuses of trafficking drugs, killing at least 83 people. Venezuela has said the strikes amount to murder.
Which airlines has Venezuela banned and why?
On Wednesday night, Venezuela’s civil aviation authority announced that Spain’s Iberia, Portugal’s TAP, Colombia’s Avianca, Chile’s and Brazil’s LATAM, Brazil’s Gol and Turkish Airlines would have their permits revoked.
The authority said the decision was taken against the carriers for joining “the actions of state terrorism promoted by the United States government”.
Before the revocation, Venezuela’s government had issued a 48-hour deadline on Monday for airlines to resume their cancelled flights or risk losing their permits.
Airline carrier Iberia had said it plans to restart flights to Venezuela as soon as full safety conditions are met.
At the same time, Avianca announced in a statement on Wednesday its intention to reschedule cancelled flights to the Venezuelan capital by December 5.
But Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel called the decision to revoke permits “disproportionate”.
“What we have to do is, through our embassy, make the Venezuelan authorities aware that this measure is disproportionate, that we have no intention of cancelling our routes to Venezuela, and that we only did this for security reasons,” he said.
What about other airlines operating in Venezuela?
Spain’s Air Europa and Plus Ultra have also suspended flights to Venezuela, but their permits have not been revoked, with no reason given for the exemption.
Panama’s Copa and its low-cost airline, Wingo, are continuing to operate to Venezuela. Domestic airlines, including the flag-carrier, Conviasa, flying from Venezuela to Colombia, Panama and Cuba are also still in operation.
What is behind US-Venezuela tensions?
Since US President Donald Trump’s return to office in January, tensions between his administration and Venezuela’s government have ramped up.
The US has built up a large military presence off the coast of Venezuela – its most significant military deployment to the Caribbean in decades – to combat what it claims is the trafficking of drugs.
The Trump administration has frequently claimed that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is behind the drug trade, without providing any evidence to support this.
In August, the US government raised its reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest from $25m to $50m.
Maduro denies that he is involved in the drug trade.
This week, the US designated the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns) a foreign “terrorist” organisation. It also claims the group is headed by Maduro and a senior figure in his government.
Venezuela’s foreign ministry said it “categorically, firmly and absolutely rejected” the designation, describing it as a “new and ridiculous lie”.
Moreover, the US has long rejected Maduro’s government, calling his election win last year “rigged”. In November 2024, the US recognised Venezuela’s opposition leader, Edmundo Gonzalez, as the country’s rightful president.
The Venezuelan government has suggested that the drug operation in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific is a cover for the US’s real aim of deposing Maduro from government – something some observers also believe.
Since September, the US has conducted at least 21 strikes on Venezuelan vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, claiming they are drug boats. More than 80 people have been killed, but the Trump administration has provided no evidence for its claims.
Last month, the US military conducted bomber flights up to the coast of Venezuela as part of a training exercise to simulate an attack, and sent the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R Ford, into the region.
However, in recent days, Trump has shown a willingness to hold direct talks.
On Wednesday, Trump told reporters on board his presidential plane, Air Force One, that he “might talk” to Maduro but warned “we can do things the easy way, that’s fine, and if we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine, too”.
(Al Jazeera)
What has Trump said about anti-drug land operations in Venezuela?
On Thursday, Trump warned that land operations to combat drug trafficking by land could begin “very soon”.
“You probably noticed that people aren’t wanting to be delivering by sea, and we’ll be starting to stop them by land also,” Trump said in remarks to troops stationed around the globe to mark the US holiday, Thanksgiving.
“The land is easier, but that’s going to start very soon.”
“We warned them to stop sending poison to our country,” he added.
Venezuela “categorically, firmly, and absolutely rejects the new and ridiculous fabrication by the United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who designates the nonexistent Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization,” Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil said Monday on Telegram. The move rehashes “an infamous and vile lie to justify an illegitimate and illegal intervention against Venezuela, under the classic U.S. regime change format. This new maneuver will meet the same fate as previous and recurrent aggressions against our country: failure.”
🚨📛 Régimen de Maduro cuestiona la designación del Cartel de los Soles
🇻🇪 El canciller del régimen, Yván Gil, publicó un comunicado donde desestimó con ataques y descalificaciones la reciente clasificación del Cartel de los Soles como Organización Terrorista Extranjera por… pic.twitter.com/zIoETJ4eam
In an interview last week, Hegseth was pointedly vague about what the designation of Cartel De Los Soles means to potential U.S. military operations against Maduro. No decisions related to countering Maduro’s cartel are “off the table,” Hegseth explained, but “nothing is automatically on the table,” either.
On Sunday, however, Reuters reported that the United States “is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days.”
It remains unknown what actions U.S. President Donald Trump will authorize; however, “covert operations would likely be the first part of the new action against Maduro,” according to Reuters. “Two U.S. officials told Reuters the options under consideration included attempting to overthrow Maduro.”
We’ve reached out to the White House and Pentagon for more details. The Pentagon referred us to the White House.
As we noted before: “If expanded strikes on land targets occur after the November 24th horizon, they could be limited to strictly cartel and drug production target sets that do not include state facilities. These could include labs, logistical nodes, such as port facilities, and cartel personnel. Striking military installations and other state infrastructure that the U.S. believes actively facilitate the drug trade would be a further escalation. Going directly after the Maduro regime and its military capabilities as a whole would be the farthest rung up the escalation ladder.”
There was also reporting that Trump administration officials discussed the possibility of dropping leaflets on Venezuela’s capital city of Caracas as a kind of psychological warfare to pressure Maduro. However, it was suggested that the operation could take place on Maduro’s 63rd birthday, which was Sunday. That did not happen.
Caine and his senior enlisted advisor, David L. Isom, are visiting Puerto Rico “to engage with service members and thank them for their outstanding support to regional missions,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. “They will also visit and thank Sailors operating at sea for their dedicated, unwavering service in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility.”
His visit comes as the U.S. has assembled a considerable military presence.
There are currently 11 U.S. Navy surface combatants and four support vessels in the region, a U.S. Navy official told The War Zone on Monday. The official added that there are about 100 total U.S. Navy vessels deployed around the globe. That means about 15% of the Navy’s deployed surface fleet is now in the Caribbean.
The U.S. Navy’s Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, including the flagship USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), left, USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81), front, USS Mahan (DDG 72), back, USS Bainbridge (DDG 96), and embarked Carrier Air Wing Eight F/A-18E/F Super Hornets assigned to Strike Fighter Squadrons 31, 37, 87, and 213, operates as a joint, multi-domain force with a U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress. (U.S. Southern Command) Petty Officer 3rd Class Tajh Payne
The collection of military might also includes a special operations mothership and an array of aerial assets like F-35B stealth fighters, MQ-9 Reaper drones, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, and AC-130 Ghostrider gunships. There are also about 15,000 U.S. personnel deployed to the region. The massing of U.S. forces is a major presence for the region, but nothing like what we have seen for actual invasion or full-spectrum war operations.
While the timing of any potential military operation against Maduro remains publicly unknown, the increasingly tense situation is having a visible effect on civilian aviation. Several airlines have cancelled flights to and from Venezuela and as of Monday morning, the airspace around the South American nation was largely free of commercial aviation, according to the latest tracking by FlightRadar24. U.S. air carriers have been prohibited from traveling to or from Venezuela since 2019.
“Operators are advised to exercise caution when operating in the Maiquetia Flight Information Region (SVZM FIR) at all altitudes due to the worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela,” the NOTAM read. In effect until Feb 19, it also requires that U.S. civil aviation operators file at least a 72-hour notice before flying in the area.
FAA
The NOTAM was issued due to “an increase in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) interference” near Venezuela since September, the FAA stated on Friday.
Another factor was “increasing Venezuelan military readiness,” the FAA added.
“Some civil aircraft recently reported GNSS interference while transiting the SVZM FIR, which, in some cases, caused lingering effects throughout the flight,” according to the FAA notice. “GNSS jammers and spoofers can affect aircraft out to 250 nautical miles and can impact a wide variety of critical communication, navigation, surveillance, and safety equipment on aircraft.”
Moreover, since early September, Venezuela “has conducted multiple military exercises and directed the mass mobilization of thousands of military and reserve forces,” the FAA explained. “While Venezuela has at no point expressed an intent to target civil aviation, the Venezuelan military possesses advanced fighter aircraft and multiple weapons systems capable of reaching or exceeding civil aircraft operating altitudes, as well as potential low-altitude risk from man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and anti-aircraft artillery.” You can read more about Venezuela’s air defenses in our deep dive here.
One of Venezuela’s Russian-made BUK-M2E air defense systems. (Photo credit should read JUAN BARRETO/AFP via Getty Images) JUAN BARRETO
The FAA added that it will “continue to monitor the risk environment for U.S. civil aviation operating in the region and make adjustments, as appropriate, to safeguard U.S. civil aviation.”
In addition to the NOTAM near Venezuela, the FAA on Friday also posted one extending from Curacao deep out into the Caribbean. It runs through Dec. 31. This where the U.S. has been operating at sea and in the air heavily, as well as where interactions with Venezuelan fighter aircraft and U.S. ships have occurred.
“Aircraft operators are advised to exercise extreme caution when operating” in the Curacao area,” according to that NOTAM. “Frequent pilot reports and primary radar within [the area] indicates the presence of non-identified aircraft operations…Pilots are requested to report any unusual airborne activity immediately” to air traffic control.
U.S. military aircraft are also frequently conducting training and probing exercises near Venezuela. A glaring example took place Nov. 20 during what U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) calls a “bomber attack demo.” It included B-52H Stratofortress crews from Minot Air Force Base, KC-135 aerial refueling tankers from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, and fighter aircraft already deployed to the region.
“Operation Southern Spear support showcases our vow to deter illicit drug networks & defend the homeland,” SOUTHCOM said on X.
As we explained in an earlier story, the B-52s “are capable of unleashing waves of standoff cruise missiles and can carry a host of other conventional munitions that can be employed against targets on land and at sea. Though the Venezuelan armed forces have limited air defense capabilities, they could still pose a threat. Standoff strikes from aircraft like the B-52 and other assets would be a likely component of any future U.S. direct action against targets inside the country to help reduce risks to friendly forces. They could even target air defense systems to help clear the way for follow-on operations.”
SOUTHCOM’s statement followed our reporting that U.S. aviation assets, including a U.S. Air Force RC-135V Rivet Joint electronic surveillance plane, were “testing Venezuelan sensors and responses,” a U.S. official told us last week. “It was part of the pressure campaign to show U.S. capabilities in the Caribbean.”
SOUTHCOM on Monday pushed back against a claim that it was restricting Thanksgiving and Christmas leave “in preparation for possible land strikes in the next 10 days to two weeks.
“Our service members and civilian employees are always afforded the opportunity to take leave throughout the year, and that includes holiday periods,” a SOUTHCOM spokesperson told us Monday. “The American people can be assured that SOUTHCOM remains steadfast in its mission year-round to protect the security of the Western Hemisphere and the safety of the American Homeland.”
🚨 SOUTHCOM is restricting / limiting leave over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, in preparation for possible land strikes in the next 10 days to two weeks, I am told by a source.
As the world waits and wonders about Trump’s next move, another aerial mission toward Venezuela could soon be in the offing. Flight trackers noticed a gathering of KC-46 Pegasus aerial refuelers at MacDill, which has become a domestic support hub for Southern Spear. Refuelers from MacDill, which normally only beds the KC-135s, have frequently provided gas to strategic bombers flying over the Caribbean.
RCH 020/027/024 (KC-46) repositioning to MacDill AFB this morning. Looks like these will be for refueling bombers on another Caribbean mission. pic.twitter.com/dFGnYCCh2N
The destination of these bombers is unknown at the moment. We will continue to monitor this increasingly tense situation in the Caribbean and provide updates when warranted.
Move offers potential cover as Trump eyes expanded operations against Venezuela’s Maduro.
Published On 24 Nov 202524 Nov 2025
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The United States is set to designating Venezuela’s “Cartel de los Soles” a foreign “terrorist” organisation (FTO).
President Donald Trump’s administration will add the “cartel”, which it asserts is linked to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to the list on Monday.
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However, the entity is not actually a cartel, but rather a common reference to military officers and officials involved in corruption and other illegal activities.
The move, which comes amid a huge military buildup in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela by the US, could offer legal cover to potential direct military action.
Trump is reportedly mulling the next step in his campaign against the South American country. A strike on Venezuelan territory would constitute a major escalation of the months-long US operation in the region, which has seen more than 80 people killed in strikes on boats accused of trafficking drugs.
UN officials and scholars of international law have said that the strikes are in clear violation of US and international law and amount to extrajudicial executions.
Washington is poised to launch a new phase of operations in the coming days, unnamed US officials told the Reuters news agency.
The report said the exact timing and scope of the new operations, and whether Trump had made a final decision to act, was unclear.
A senior administration official said they would not rule anything out regarding Venezuela.
Two of the officials said covert operations would likely be the first part of a new action against Maduro, with options under consideration including an attempt to overthrow the longstanding Venezuelan leader.
Cartel de los Soles
Venezuelans began using the term Cartel de los Soles in the 1990s to refer to high-ranking military officers who had grown rich from drug-running.
As corruption later expanded nationwide, first under the late President Hugo Chavez and then Maduro, the use of the term loosely expanded to include police and government officials, as well as activities like illegal mining and fuel trafficking.
The “suns” in the name refer to the epaulettes affixed to the uniforms of high-ranking military officers.
The umbrella term was elevated to a reported drug-trafficking organisation allegedly led by Maduro in 2020, when the US Department of Justice in Trump’s first term announced the indictment of Venezuela’s leader and his inner circle on narcoterrorism and other charges.
Maduro, in power since 2013, contends that Trump seeks to topple him and that Venezuelan citizens and the military will resist any such attempt.
However, the US campaign and the fears of potential military action continue to raise the pressure on Caracas.
Six airlines cancelled their routes to Venezuela on Saturday after the US aviation regulator warned of dangers from “heightened military activity”.
Spain’s Iberia, Portugal’s TAP, Chile’s LATAM, Colombia’s Avianca and Brazil’s GOL suspended their flights to the country, said Marisela de Loaiza, president of the Venezuelan Airlines Association (ALAV).
Turkish Airlines said on Sunday it was also cancelling flights from November 24 to 28.
On Saturday, the Reuters news agency published an exclusive report claiming that the United States is “poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days”. The report cited four US officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. Two of the officials said covert operations would likely be the first step in this “new action” against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
This was less than shocking news given that more than a month ago, US President Donald Trump himself announced that he had authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela – a rather unique approach since one does not normally broadcast actions that are supposed to be, um, secret.
Anyway, it’s no secret that the US has been overseeing a massive military build-up in the region with about 15,000 US troops currently stationed there under the guise of fighting “narcoterrorism”. Since early September, Trump has also presided over wanton extrajudicial executions in the Caribbean Sea, repeatedly ordering the bombing of what he claims are drug-trafficking boats.
In addition to violating both international and US law, the strikes have produced little to show for themselves beyond terrorising local fishermen.
To be sure, the US has never met a “war on drugs” it didn’t love, given the convenient opportunities the whole drug-war narrative offers for wreaking havoc worldwide, militarising the Western Hemisphere, criminalising poor Americans and all sorts of other good stuff.
Never mind that US financial institutions have for decades reaped profits from the international drug trade – or that “The CIA Drug Connection Is as Old as the Agency,” as an article on The New York Times website puts it.
It should come as no surprise by now that the president who campaigned on keeping the US out of wars and then promptly bombed Iran has now found another conflict in which to embroil the country. And as is par for the course in US imperial belligerence, the rationale for aggression against Venezuela doesn’t hold water.
For example, the Trump administration has strived to pin the blame for the fentanyl crisis in the US on Maduro. But there’s a slight problem – which is that Venezuela doesn’t even produce the synthetic opioid in question.
As NBC News and other hardly radical outlets have pointed out, Venezuelan drug cartels are focused on exporting cocaine to Europe, not fentanyl to the US.
Nevertheless, on November 13, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – pardon, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, as per administrative rebranding – took to X to assure his audience that the massive US military build-up off the Venezuelan coast is a mission that “defends our Homeland, removes narco-terrorists from our Hemisphere, and secures our Homeland from the drugs that are killing our people”.
This is the same administration, of course, that was just threatening to starve impoverished Americans by withholding essential food assistance, which suggests that the wellbeing of “our people” isn’t really of utmost concern.
Consider also the fact that Trump slashed federal funding for gun violence prevention programmes in a country where mass shootings have become a way of life. Obviously, massacres in elementary schools are “killing our people” in a way that has nothing whatsoever to do with Venezuela.
But it’s so much more fun to blame Maduro for everything, right?
Poverty itself is a major killer in America – as is the domestic pharmaceutical industry (speaking of opioids). However, none of these full-blown crises has merited a remotely gung-ho response from the valiant defenders of the Homeland.
Like his predecessor Hugo Chavez, Maduro has long been a thorn in the side of US empire – hence the current campaign to discredit him as a “narcoterrorist” and thereby set the stage for regime change. He also happens to be a pet target of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is seen as the main architect of Washington’s war plans in Venezuela. Potentially eyeing a presidential bid in three years, Rubio is seeking to curry favour with his Florida constituency, which includes fanatically right-wing members of the Venezuelan and Cuban diasporas.
According to the Reuters report on impending “Venezuela-related operations”, two of the US officials consulted told the news agency that “the options under consideration included attempting to overthrow Maduro”. If the plans succeeds, Rubio would join the lengthy roster of US politicians who have propagated deadly havoc abroad in the interest of political gains at home.
Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported on Saturday that the White House had “proposed an idea for US military planes to drop leaflets over Caracas in a psychological operation” to pressure Maduro.
And as the Trump administration barrels on with its not-so-covert plans for Venezuela, such hemispheric recklessness will secure neither the US homeland nor anyone else’s.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial policy.
The administration of President Donald Trump has considered dropping leaflets on Venezuela as President Nicolas Maduro turns 63 on Sunday. File Photo by Miguel Guiterrez/EPA-EFE
Nov. 23 (UPI) — The administration of President Donald Trump has considered dropping leaflets on Venezuela as President Nicolas Maduro turns 63 on Sunday, reports said.
Trump administration officials “recently” discussed dropping the leaflets but the operation has not yet been authorized, as first reported by the Washington Post citing anonymous sources and confirmed by CBS News.
The leaflets would possibly include information on a $50 million reward for assistance leading to Maduro’s arrest and conviction following a 2020 indictment charging him with narco-terrorism and drug trafficking, among other criminal offenses, sources who spoke to the news outlets said.
Dropping such leaflets is a common psychological warfare technique used globally, including by the U.S. military ahead of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, as well as in Syria and Afghanistan.
The possibility of a leaflet drop comes as Trump has increased military pressure with strikes on alleged drug boats and a buildup of military in the region. Such strikes have been regularly publicized on social media by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Trump also recently confirmed that he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela.
Trump, who notified Congress that he was engaged in conflict with drug cartels, has said he is considering whether to allow strikes inside Venezuela to combat the cartels and weaken Maduro’s administration.
But the strikes have raised concerns of escalating a conflict that could lead to war with Venezuela and Colombia, according to reports.
U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., filed a bipartisan bill last month that aimed at preventing the Trump administration from entering a full-throated war with Venezuela. Critics of the Trump administration’s actions have expressed that only Congress can declare war.
The strikes on alleged drug boats have been condemned by the office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, which has said that they violate international law and amount to extrajudicial killings.
President Donald Trump meets with New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, on Friday. Photo by Yuri Gripas/UPI | License Photo
Six international airlines have suspended flights to Venezuela after the United States warned major carriers about a “potentially hazardous situation” due to “heightened military activity” around the South American country.
Spain’s Iberia, Portugal’s TAP, Chile’s LATAM, Colombia’s Avianca, Brazil’s GOL and Trinidad and Tobago’s Caribbean all halted flights to the country on Saturday, the AFP news agency reported, citing Marisela de Loaiza, the president of the Venezuelan Airlines Association.
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TAP said it was cancelling its flights scheduled for Saturday and next Tuesday, while Iberia said it was suspending flights to the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, until further notice.
TAP told the Reuters news agency that its decision was linked to the US notice, which it said “indicates that safety conditions in Venezuelan airspace are not guaranteed”.
According to the AFP news agency, Panama’s Copa Airlines, Spain’s Air Europa and PlusUltra, Turkish Airlines, and Venezuela’s LASER are continuing to operate flights for now.
The flight suspensions come as tensions between the US and Venezuela soar, with Washington deploying troops as well as the world’s largest aircraft carrier to the Caribbean, as part of what it calls an anti-narcotics operation. Caracas, however, describes the operation as a bid to force Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro out of power.
The US military has also carried out at least 21 attacks on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and the Pacific, killing at least 83 people.
The campaign – which critics say violates both international and US domestic law – began after the administration of President Donald Trump increased its reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro to $50m, describing him as the “global terrorist leader of the Cartel de los Soles”.
President Trump, meanwhile, has sent mixed signals about the possibility of intervention in Venezuela, saying in a CBS interview earlier this month that he doesn’t think his country was going to war against Caracas.
But when asked if Maduro’s days as president were numbered, he replied, saying, “I would say yeah.”
Then, on Sunday, he said the US may open talks with Maduro, and on Monday, when asked about the possibility of deploying US troops to the country, he replied: “I don’t rule out that. I don’t rule out anything. We just have to take care of Venezuela.”
Days later, on Friday, the US Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) urged all flights in the area to “exercise caution” due to the threats “at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground”.
Ties between Washington and Caracas have been dominated by tensions since the rise of Maduro’s left-wing predecessor, Hugo Chavez, in the early 2000s.
The relationship deteriorated further after Maduro came to power following Chavez’s death in 2013.
Successive US administrations have rejected Maduro’s legitimacy and imposed heavy sanctions on the Venezuelan economy, accusing the president of corruption, authoritarianism and election fraud.
The Trump administration has hardened the US stance. Last week, it labelled the Venezuelan drug organisation, dubbed Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), a “terrorist” group, and it accused Maduro of leading it, without providing evidence.
In recent weeks, conservative foreign policy hawks in the US have been increasingly calling on Trump to topple the Maduro government.
Maduro has accused the US of inventing “pretexts” for war, repeatedly expressing willingness to engage in dialogue with Washington. But he has warned that his country would push to defend itself.
“No foreign power will impose its will on our sovereign homeland,” he was quoted as saying by the Venezuelan outlet Telesur.
“But if they break peace and persist in their neocolonial intentions, they will face a huge surprise. I pray that does not occur, because – I repeat – they will receive a truly monumental surprise.”
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who recently won a Nobel Peace Prize, suggested that overthrowing Maduro would not amount to regime change, arguing the president lost the election last year and rigged the results.
“We’re not asking for regime change. We’re asking for respect of the will of the people and the people will be the one that will take care and protect this transition so that it is orderly, peaceful and irreversible,” she told The Washington Post on Friday.
Machado, 58, has called for privatising Venezuela’s oil sector and opening the country to foreign investments.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
As the U.S. continues to raise the heat on Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, online flight trackers tonight have noticed several F/A-18 Super Hornets and a U.S. Air Force RC-135V Rivet Joint electronic surveillance plane flying close to the South American nation’s coastline. A U.S. official told us these flights are part of the pressure campaign ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump against Maduro and specifically to test Venezuela’s air defense capabilities and response times. This is a staple tactic that is critical to assessing the status, locations, operating procedures, and sensitivity of an enemy’s defenses. The data garnered is especially critical for planning offensive operations.
“They are normal operational training flights from the aircraft carrier USS Ford and platforms performing training exercises,” the official told us. “They are also testing Venezuelan sensors and responses, and it is part of the pressure campaign to show U.S. capabilities in the Caribbean.”
FlightRadar24 has now identified FELIX11, one of the “unknown military aircraft” off the coast of Venezuela, as a U.S. Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet from the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), meaning that the others; PARTY11, LION11, LION12, as well as others not seen, are also likely… https://t.co/x6kX0H1UZvpic.twitter.com/KSPC4TbG19
F/A-18E/F Super Hornets like this one are flying near the coast of Venezuela. (USN) A US Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint. (USAF) A US Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint. USAF
In addition to the Super Hornets and Rivet Joint, spotters also tracked B-52H Superfortress bombers in the region as well. The flight is the latest in a series of bomber sorties that have been flying near Venezuela since October 15.
“For operational security reasons, we do not comment on the movement of aircraft supporting ongoing operations,” an Air Force Southern Command spokesperson told us earlier today when we asked about the flights. “We refer you to the…press release for information about Operation Southern Spear and the Joint Task Force established to conduct the operation.”
B-52H Superfortresses. (USAF/Staff Sgt. William Rio Rosado) USAF/Staff Sgt. William Rio Rosado
The flights are part of a massive U.S. presence in the Caribbean for an operation that was ostensibly launched to counter the flow of narcotics into the U.S. but has morphed into a huge show of force aimed at Maduro. In addition to the Ford, there are at least seven surface combatants, a special operations mothership, and several support vessels. There are also F-35B stealth fighters, MQ-9 Reaper drones, P-8 wartime patrol aircraft, AC-130 Ghostrider gunships, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, among other assets, and about 15,000 U.S. personnel deployed to the region.
Thursday evening, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told OAN news that the looming designation of Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, alleged to be headed by Maduro, “brings a whole bunch of new options to the United States.” That designation goes into effect on Nov. 24 unless challenged by Congress.
OAN to Air Exclusive Sit-Down Interview with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth in Prime Time — Watch tonight at 5 pm EST, 7 pm EST, and 11 pm ESThttps://t.co/tdOmMHEBFZ
RC-135 Rivet Joints are no strangers to this part of the world, as we have written about in-depth before. But the aircraft’s arrival at this time, along with tactical fighters and bombers, and many other aircraft that do not show up on tracking systems, is of great interest. The fact that some of these aircraft are showing up on tracking sites at all is clearly a conscious choice in messaging. Even more so, the fact that a U.S. official confirmed the aircraft were stimulating Venezuelan defenses in order to gather critical intelligence is also a very rare admission. Such activities go back many years and happen around the globe regularly to this day to varying degrees of sophistication. But this appears to be a more complex operation, especially considering Venezuela is on high alert for an impending military operation. It’s worth noting that the RC-135 would also have had fighter cover for its collection mission, which could have been provided by USS Gerald R. Ford’s Super Hornets.
By gathering this type of intelligence, and the RC-135 is arguably the best asset on earth to do it, commanders have an up-to-date assessment of the enemy’s electronic order of battle. Once again, this includes the status, types, geolocations, tactics, and readiness of these systems. That intelligence is critical for planning strikes as it informs what air defenses need to be suppressed or destroyed in order for missiles and/or aircraft to best make it to their targets. It also directly dictates what routes those missiles and/or aircraft would take.
At this time, we have no indication that this is all prelude to an actual offensive military operation that strikes into Venezuela, but it is certainly one indicator. And that may very well be the point, as it puts extreme pressure on Maduro, signaling that his reality could shift dramatically in the coming days.
For both tactical and psychological operations reasons, it won’t be surprising if the RC-135 and its fighter escorts and ‘stimulators’ don’t become a relatively common sight off the Venezuelan coast over the coming days.
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A controversial Russian general is now in Venezuela leading a rotational advisory mission, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone exclusively. Colonel General Oleg Leontievich Makarevich commands the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Equator Task Force (ETF), Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said. Makarevich is in charge of more than 120 troops who are training Venezuelan forces on a wide range of military functions, according to Budanov. Those activities are not in reaction to the current U.S. military buildup in the region.
The War Zone cannot independently verify Budanov’s claim and we have reached out to the White House, Pentagon and U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) for confirmation. We will update this story with any pertinent details provided. Questions to Budanov were prompted in part by a story in Intelligence Onlineclaiming that an elite Russian drone unit has arrived in Venezuela to teach troops there how to use first-person view (FPV) drones.
The Ukrainian intelligence chief’s comments come as the Trump administration has established a significant presence of U.S. forces in the Caribbean. While Task Force Southern Spear is ostensibly aimed at countering narcotics trafficking in the region, the effort is also focused on pressuring Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. You can catch up with our recent coverage of the ongoing Caribbean operation here.
A U.S. Air Force B-52H bomber and U.S. Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornets flew over the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford as it entered the SOUTHCOM region. (SOUTHCOM)
Makarevich and his troops are likely to remain in Venezuela during any U.S. attack, Budanov suggested.
“I think they will be behind the scenes and officially Russia will try to speak to the U.S. because their units are in Venezuela,” Budanov said. “It’s just a game.”
The Russians are serving as “military advisors and also teachers,” Budanov explained. “In general, it’s infantry, UAV and special forces training.”
Among other things, ETF is also providing Venezuela with signals intelligence, Budanov added.
The deployment of Russian troops to Venezuela is a long-standing rotation that has existed for years, Budanov noted. He also said that GUR has not identified any change in Russian troop levels in Venezuela since Trump’s Caribbean push began. However, it appears that Makarevich, who has been in the South American country since the beginning of the year, has had his deployment there extended, Budanov said. Typical rotations for Russian commanders last about six months, he pointed out.
Russian Colonel General Oleg Leontievich Makarevich salutes Russian President Vladimir Putin. (GUR)
Makarevich and about 90 Russian officers and other troops are located in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, according to a document Budanov shared with us. The rest are stationed at Maracaibo, La Guaira and Aves Island.
“The Buk-M2 we see,” he told us. “The Pantsir we don’t know about.”
That politician, Alexei Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, also threatened that Russia could increase the supply of advanced weapons to Venezuela, including long-range standoff weapons, like cruise missiles. Another concern for the U.S. could be Russia providing Shahed-family drones capable of striking targets at great distances and at low cost. In the past, Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened that he could provide standoff weapons to America’s enemies, Venezuela among them, as we have previously noted.
A separate document Budanov shared with us provides greater insight into the ETF mission in Venezuela. It explains how Russian troops are providing training in several key areas and assessing the combat capabilities of the Venezuelan Armed Forces. That includes armor, aircraft, artillery, drones and even dogs. In addition, Russia is helping Venezuela monitor domestic groups and foreign governments, according to the document.
We cannot independently confirm the provenance of the document or the accuracy of the information stated within it.
It is interesting to note that Makarevich, 62, was put in charge of this task force. Putin fired him as commander of the Dnipro Group of troops in October 2023 after Ukraine’s successful Kherson counteroffensive. During that operation, Ukrainian forces recaptured Kherson City in November 2022. You can see Russian officials talking about that event, a huge defeat for Russia at the time, in the following video.
Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered his troops to retreat to the Dnipro river’s right bank – meaning they are surrendering Kherson, the only provincial capital captured during the invasion.
Makarevich is also accused by Ukraine of ordering the June 2023 destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam. The incident caused massive flooding and severe economic and environmental damage. At the time, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu blamed Ukraine, saying that Kyiv blew up the dam to prevent Russian offensive actions in the region.
Meanwhile, the world continues to wait on Trump’s decision about what to do with the huge U.S. military presence in the region. It includes the aircraft carrier USS Ford, three of its escort ships, seven other Navy surface warships, a special operations mothership, a wide array of aerial assets and about 15,000 troops.
In another apparent step closer to taking some kind of kinetic action, Trump has “signed off on C.I.A. plans for covert measures inside Venezuela, operations that could be meant to prepare a battlefield for further action,” The New York Times reported.
Asked if Ukraine’s GUR has assets in Venezuela, Budanov offered a coy response.
“We collect all the information about them,” he said.
Nov. 16 (UPI) — The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group entered the Caribbean Sea on Sunday, adding to a military build-up in the region, as President Donald Trump signaled that he may have decided on a possible U.S. show of force in Venezuela.
The Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world, leads a strike group assigned to dismantle international narcotics trafficking organizations.
President Donald Trump said on Friday that he is getting closer to deciding on a course of action in Venezuela after a series of high-level meetings with officials amid mounting tensions in the region.
“I sort of have made up my mind – yeah,” Trump told reporters about Air Force One when asked about the meetings and the situation in Venezuela. “I can’t tell you what it would be, but I sort of have.”
Trump was briefed last week on options for military action in Venezuela, one of which could potentially include outing President Nicolas Maduro, several officials told CNN.
Last week, Trump was briefed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Kaine and a larger group of national security officials about U.S. options in Venezuela.
They discussed a wide range of options, including air strikes on military and government facilities, drug-trafficking routes and a potential attempt to remove Maduro directly.
Trump has previously considered targeting cocaine production facilities and trafficking routes inside the country, CNN reported. The president last month authorized the CIA to operate in Venezuela, but administration officials later told lawmakers that there is no justification that would support military action against any land targets in the country. Trump recently said on CBS News’ 60 Minutes that he is not considering that option.
WASHINGTON — The nation’s most advanced aircraft carrier arrived in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday in a display of U.S. military power, raising questions about what the new influx of troops and weaponry could signal for the Trump administration’s drug enforcement campaign in South America.
The arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, announced by the U.S. military in a news release, marks a major moment in what the Trump administration says is an antidrug operation but has been seen as an escalating pressure tactic against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Since early September, U.S. strikes have killed at least 80 people in 20 attacks on small boats accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The Ford rounds off the largest buildup of U.S. firepower in the region in generations, bringing the total number of troops to around 12,000 on nearly a dozen Navy ships in what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has dubbed Operation Southern Spear.
The Ford’s carrier strike group, which includes squadrons of fighter jets and guided-missile destroyers, transited the Anegada Passage near the British Virgin Islands on Sunday morning, the Navy said in a statement.
Rear Adm. Paul Lanzilotta, who commands the Ford’s carrier strike group, said it will bolster an already large force of American warships to “protect our nation’s security and prosperity against narco-terrorism in the Western Hemisphere.”
The administration has maintained that the buildup of warships is focused on stopping the flow of drugs into the U.S., but it has released no evidence to support its assertions that those killed in the boats were “narco-terrorists.” An Associated Press report recently found that those killed included Venezuelan fishermen and other impoverished men earning a few hundred dollars per trip.
President Trump has indicated military action would expand beyond strikes by sea, saying the U.S. would “stop the drugs coming in by land.”
The U.S. has long used aircraft carriers to pressure and deter aggression by other nations because their warplanes can strike targets deep inside another country. Some experts say the Ford is ill-suited to fighting cartels, but it could be an effective instrument of intimidation for Maduro in a push to get him to step down.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the United States does not recognize Maduro, who was widely accused of stealing last year’s election, as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. Rubio has called Venezuela’s government a “transshipment organization” that openly cooperates with those trafficking drugs.
Maduro, who faces charges of narco-terrorism in the U.S., has said the government in Washington is “fabricating” a war against him. Venezuela’s government recently touted a “massive” mobilization of troops and civilians to defend against possible U.S. attacks.
Trump has justified the attacks on drug boats by saying the U.S. is in “armed conflict” with drug cartels while claiming the boats are operated by foreign terrorist organizations.
He has faced skepticism and opposition from leaders in the region, the United Nations human rights chief and U.S. lawmakers, including Republicans, who have pressed for more information on who is being targeted and the legal justification for the boat strikes.
Senate Republicans, however, recently voted to reject legislation that would have put a check on Trump’s ability to launch an attack against Venezuela without congressional authorization.
Experts disagree on whether or not American warplanes may be used to strike land targets inside Venezuela. Either way, the 100,000-ton warship is sending a message.
“This is the anchor of what it means to have U.S. military power once again in Latin America,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Andes region. “And it has raised a lot of anxieties in Venezuela but also throughout the region. I think everyone is watching this with sort of bated breath to see just how willing the U.S. is to really use military force.”
President Gustavo Petro says purchase of warplanes is a ‘deterrent weapon to achieve peace’ amid ‘messy’ geopolitics.
Published On 15 Nov 202515 Nov 2025
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Colombian President Gustavo Petro has announced a $4.3bn deal to buy Swedish warplanes at a time when his country is locked in tension with the United States.
Speaking on Friday, Petro confirmed an agreement was reached with Sweden’s Saab aircraft manufacturer to buy 17 Gripen fighter jets, giving the first confirmation of the size and cost of the military acquisition that was initially announced in April.
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“This is a deterrent weapon to achieve peace,” Petro said in a post on social media.
The purchase of warplanes comes as Colombia and much of remaining Latin America are on edge due to a US military build-up in the region, and as US forces carry out a campaign of deadly attacks on vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
Washington claims – but has provided no evidence – that it has targeted drug smuggling vessels in its 20 confirmed attacks that have killed about 80 people so far in international waters.
Latin American leaders, legal scholars and rights groups have accused the US of carrying out extrajudicial killings of people who should face the courts if suspected of breaking laws related to drug smuggling.
US President Donald Trump has also accused both Petro and his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolas Maduro, of being involved in the regional drug trade, a claim that both leaders have strenuously denied.
Petro said the new warplanes will be used to dissuade “aggression against Colombia, wherever it may come from”.
“In a world that is geopolitically messy,” he said, such aggression “can come from anywhere”.
The Colombian leader has for weeks traded insults with Donald Trump and said the ultimate goal of the US deployment in the region is to seize Venezuela’s oil wealth and destabilise Latin America.
Trump has long accused Venezuela’s Maduro of trafficking drugs and more recently branded Petro “an illegal drug leader” because of Colombia’s high level of cocaine production. Trump has also withdrawn US financial aid from Colombia and taken it off its list of countries seen as allies in fighting drug trafficking internationally.
Amid the war of words rumbling on between Washington and Bogota, Petro said last week that Colombia would suspend intelligence sharing with the US on combating drug trafficking, but officials in his government quickly rolled back that threat.
The AFP news agency reports that US and French firms had also tried to sell warplanes to Colombia, but, in the end, Bogota went with Sweden’s Saab.
Swedish Defence Minister Pal Jonson said Colombia was joining Sweden, Brazil and Thailand in choosing the Gripen fighter jet, and defence relations between Bogota and Stockholm would “deepen significantly” as a result.
🇸🇪🇨🇴I’m proud that Colombia today joins the Gripen E family, alongside Sweden, Brazil and Thailand. With the Colombian purchase of 17 Gripen E/F, our defence relations will deepen significantly & Colombia will receive one of the world’s greatest fighter jets. (1/4) pic.twitter.com/g0rESq69nD
As the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier sails to the Caribbean, the U.S. military continues striking drug-carrying boats off the Venezuelan coast and the Trump administration debates what to do about Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, one thing seems certain: Venezuela and the western hemisphere would all be better off if Maduro packed his bags and spent his remaining years in exile.
This is certainly what Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is working toward. This year’s Nobel Prize laureate has spent much of her time recently in the U.S. lobbying policymakers to squeeze Maduro into vacating power. Constantly at risk of detention in her own country, Machado is granting interviews and dialing into conferences to advocate for regime change. Her talking points are clearly tailored for the Trump administration: Maduro is the head of a drug cartel that is poisoning Americans; his dictatorship rests on weak pillars; and the forces of democracy inside Venezuela are fully prepared to seize the mantle once Maduro is gone. “We are ready to take over government,” Machado told Bloomberg News in an October interview.
But as the old saying goes, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. While there’s no disputing that Maduro is a despot and a fraud who steals elections, U.S. policymakers can’t simply take what Machado is saying for granted. Washington learned this the hard way in the lead-up to the war in Iraq, when an opposition leader named Ahmed Chalabi sold U.S. policymakers a bill of goods about how painless rebuilding a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq would be. We all know how the story turned out — the United States stumbled into an occupation that sucked up U.S. resources, unleashed unpredicted regional consequences and proved more difficult than its proponents originally claimed.
To be fair, Machado is no Chalabi. The latter was a fraudster; the former is the head of an opposition movement whose candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, won two-thirds of the vote during the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election (Maduro claimed victory anyway and forced González into exile). But just because her motives are good doesn’t mean we shouldn’t question her assertions.
Would regime change in Caracas produce the Western-style democracy Machado and her supporters anticipate? None of us can rule it out. But the Trump administration can’t bank on this as the outcome of a post-Maduro future. Other scenarios are just as likely, if not more so — and some of them could lead to greater violence for Venezuelans and more problems for U.S. policy in Latin America.
The big problem with regime change is you can never be entirely sure what will happen after the incumbent leader is removed. Such operations are by their very nature dangerous and destabilizing; political orders are deliberately shattered, the haves become have-nots, and constituencies used to holding the reins of power suddenly find themselves as outsiders. When Hussein was deposed in Iraq, the military officers, Ba’ath Party loyalists and regime-tied sycophants who ruled the roost for nearly a quarter-century were forced to make do with an entirely new situation. The Sunni-dominated structure was overturned, and members of the Shia majority, previously oppressed, were now eagerly taking their place at the top of the system. This, combined with the U.S. decision to bar anyone associated with the old regime from serving in state positions, fed the ingredients for a large-scale insurgency that challenged the new government, precipitated a civil war and killed tens of thousands of Iraqis.
Regime change can also create total absences of authority, as it did in Libya after the 2011 U.S.-NATO intervention there. Much like Maduro today, Moammar Kadafi was a reviled figure whose demise was supposed to pave the way for a democratic utopia in North Africa. The reality was anything but. Instead, Kadafi’s removal sparked conflict between Libya’s major tribal alliances, competing governments and the proliferation of terrorist groups in a country just south of the European Union. Fifteen years later, Libya remains a basket case of militias, warlords and weak institutions.
Unlike Iraq and Libya, Venezuela has experience in democratic governance. It held relatively free and fair elections in the past and doesn’t suffer from the types of sectarian rifts associated with states in the Middle East.
Still, this is cold comfort for those expecting a democratic transition. Indeed, for such a transition to be successful, the Venezuelan army would have to be on board with it, either by sitting on the sidelines as Maduro’s regime collapses, actively arresting Maduro and his top associates, or agreeing to switch its support to the new authorities. But again, this is a tall order, particularly for an army whose leadership is a core facet of the Maduro regime’s survival, has grown used to making obscene amounts of money from illegal activity under the table and whose members are implicated in human rights abuses. The very same elites who profited handsomely from the old system would have to cooperate with the new one. This doesn’t appear likely, especially if their piece of the pie will shrink the moment Maduro leaves.
Finally, while regime change might sound like a good remedy to the problem that is Venezuela, it might just compound the difficulties over time. Although Maduro’s regime’s remit is already limited, its complete dissolution could usher in a free-for-all between elements of the former government, drug trafficking organizations and established armed groups like the Colombian National Liberation Army, which have long treated Venezuela as a base of operations. Any post-Maduro government would have difficulty managing all of this at the same time it attempts to restructure the Venezuelan economy and rebuild its institutions. The Trump administration would then be facing the prospect of Venezuela serving as an even bigger source of drugs and migration, the very outcome the White House is working to prevent.
In the end, María Corina Machado could prove to be right. But she is selling a best-case assumption. The U.S. shouldn’t buy it. Democracy after Maduro is possible but is hardly the only possible result — and it’s certainly not the most likely.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities.
Arrival of US aircraft carrier off Latin America fuels speculation that US could try to overthrow Venezuelan government.
The Venezuelan government has said it is preparing its armed forces in the event of an invasion or military attack by the United States.
A statement shared by Minister of People’s Power for Defence Vladimir Padrino on Tuesday said that the preparations include the “massive deployment of ground, aerial, naval, riverine and missile forces”, as well as the participation of police, militias and citizens’ units.
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The announcement comes as the arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the region fuels speculation of possible military action aimed at collapsing the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a longtime US rival.
Tensions between the two countries have escalated since the return of US President Donald Trump for a second term in January.
On Tuesday, the Pentagon confirmed that the Gerald R Ford Carrier Strike Group — which includes the world’s largest aircraft carrier — had arrived in the Caribbean Sea, bearing at least 4,000 sailors as well as “tactical aircraft”.
In recent weeks, the US government has also surged troops to areas near the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Panama and Trinidad and Tobago, for training exercises and other operations.
The Trump administration has framed such deployments as necessary “to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland”. Trump officials have also accused Maduro of masterminding the activities of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang with a relatively modest presence in the US.
But Maduro and his allies have accused the US of “imperialistic” aims.
Questions remain, however, about whether Venezuela is equipped to fend off any US military advances.
Experts say the Maduro government has sought to project an image of military preparedness in the face of a large buildup of US forces in the Caribbean, but it could face difficulties from a lack of personnel and up-to-date equipment.
While the government has used possible US intervention to rally support, Maduro is also struggling with widespread discontent at home and growing diplomatic isolation following a contested election in 2024, marred by allegations of widespread fraud and a crackdown on protesters.
The military buildup in the Caribbean region began after the start of a series of US military strikes on September 2.
The US has carried out at least 19 air strikes against alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing approximately 75 people.
Trump has suggested that land strikes “are going to be next”. But when asked in late October whether he was considering attacks within Venezuela, Trump replied, “No”.
Legal experts say that a military attack on Venezuela would likely violate international law, and recent polling from the research firm YouGov suggests that about 47 percent of people in the US would oppose land attacks on Venezuelan territory. About 19 percent, meanwhile, say they would support such attacks.
While Venezuela’s armed forces have expressed support for Maduro and said they would resist a US attack, the Reuters news agency has reported that the government has struggled to provide members of the armed forces with adequate food and supplies.
The use of additional paramilitary and police forces could represent an effort to plug the holes in Venezuela’s lacklustre military capacity. Reuters reported that a government memo includes plans for small units at about 280 locations, where they could use sabotage and guerrilla tactics for “prolonged resistance” against any potential US incursion.
Nov. 7 (UPI) — Republicans narrowly defeated a bipartisan bill in the Senate requiring congressional approval for military action against Venezuela as the Trump administration continues a military buildup in the region and attacks on alleged drug boats in nearby waters.
The resolution was introduced by Paul, and Democratic Sens. Adam Schiff of California and Tim Kaine of Virginia in response to reporting that President Donald Trump was considering military ground strikes against Venezuela.
Venezuela has long been a target of Trump, who, during his first administration, launched a failed multiyear pressure campaign to oust its authoritarian leader, President Nicolas Maduro.
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has used his executive powers to target drug cartels, including the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang. Trump has claimed, without providing evidence, that TdA has “invaded” the United States at Maduro’s direction, despite his own National Intelligence Council concluding in May that the regime “probably does not have a policy of cooperating” with TdA.
The vote was held as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced a 17th known military strike on an alleged drug trafficking boat in Caribbean international waters. Since Sept. 2, the United States has killed around 70 people in the attacks.
The attacks have drawn domestic and international criticism and allegations of war crimes, murder and extrajudicial killings. Some Democrats called on the Trump administration to answer questions over the legality of the strikes without gaining proper congressional approval.
Following the Thursday vote, Kaine said the Trump administration told some members of Congress that it lacked legal authority to launch any attacks into Venezuela. Some worry that an attack could devolve into a full-scale war.
“Trump’s illegal strikes on boats in the Caribbean and threats of land strikes in Venezuela recklessly and unnecessarily put the U.S. at risk of war,” Kaine said in a statement.
In a separate statement, he criticized his Republican colleagues, stating: “If the U.S. is going to put our nation’s sons and daughters into harm’s way, then we should have a robust debate in Congress in front of the American people.”
Sen. Todd Young, a Republican of Indiana, voted against the bill on Thursday, and explained in a statement that he has been informed of the legal rationale behind the strikes and does not believe the resolution is appropriate right now, but that could change.
“My vote is not an endorsement of the administration’s current course in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific. As a matter of policy, I am troubled by many aspects and assumptions of this operation and believe it is at odds with the majority of Americans who want the U.S. military less entangled in international conflicts,” he said.