USIran

Published on
27/04/2026 – 8:27 GMT+2

Germany’s Dax, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB and the UK’s FTSE 100 are expected to open in the green, according to IG data, despite peace talks between the US and Iran coming to a halt.

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The White House called off plans to send envoys to Pakistan for more negotiations and US President Donald Trump cited a lack of progress over the weekend.

“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”

In addition to monitoring progress in the Middle East, investors will also be keeping across central bank decisions this week, including from the ECB and Federal Reserve.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed

Meanwhile, markets were mixed overnight in the Asia-Pacific region. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh record, surging 1.4% to 60,564.18. The Kospi in South Korea jumped 2.1% to 6,617.94. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.1% lower to 25,951.86 and the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.2% at 4,089.04. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,759.40.

Taiwan’s Taiex rallied 2.6%, helped by a revival of buying of tech shares driven by the boom in artificial intelligence.

Oil prices rise again

In other dealings early Monday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude to be delivered in July, rose $1.44 to $100.57, while US benchmark crude oil added $1.28 to $95.65.

The dollar fell to 159.34 Japanese yen from 159.59. The euro climbed to $1.1723 from $1.1701.

Brent crude rises more than 2 percent after Washington and Tehran fail to hold second round of talks in Pakistan.

Oil prices have climbed higher amid stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude rose more than 2 percent on Sunday after hopes for a second round of ceasefire negotiations between Washington and Tehran unravelled over the weekend.

After easing slightly, Brent, the primary benchmark for global prices, stood at $106.99 as of 1:30 GMT.

Stock markets in Asia shrugged off the impasse to open higher on Monday, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI gaining 0.9 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, in morning trading.

US President Donald Trump on Saturday cancelled a planned trip to Pakistan by his envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, after Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi departed Islamabad before any direct engagement could take place between the sides.

Araghchi arrived in Russia’s Saint Petersburg on Monday for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials as Tehran seeks a way out of the diplomatic impasse.

Araghchi’s trip, which follows a whistle-stop visit to Oman on Sunday, comes as uncertainty hangs over the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.

Trump announced an extension to their two-week truce last week, without specifying a deadline for reaching a deal to end the war.

As US and Iranian negotiators struggle to break the deadlock, Tehran’s threats against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have reduced traffic to a trickle, paralysing a large portion of the world’s supply of oil and natural gas.

On Saturday, 19 commercial vessels transited the strait, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, according to maritime intelligence platform Windward.

Before the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, the waterway saw an average of 129 daily transits, according to the United Nations Trade and Development.

United States President Donald Trump has cancelled a planned visit to Pakistan by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who had been expected to explore indirect talks, which remain deadlocked over issues that include the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

“If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday, signalling that Washington for now would not send negotiators to Pakistan, the country that is mediating between the longtime adversaries.

With neither Washington nor Tehran showing much willingness to soften their positions, prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough in the US-Israeli war on Iran and securing a lasting ceasefire remain stalled.

The conflict spilled into the larger Middle East region, including Lebanon, causing the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s and risking a global recession.

So what do we know about the talks and where they stand as of now?

What has the US said?

The US president on Saturday told reporters in Florida that he scrapped his envoys’ visit because the talks involved too much travel and expense to consider an inadequate offer from the Iranians.

After the diplomatic trip was called off, Iran “offered a lot, but not enough”, Trump said.

On Truth Social, he wrote that there was “tremendous infighting and confusion” within Iran’s leadership.

“Nobody knows who is in charge, including them,” he posted. “Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!”

What has Iran said?

In Tehran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated that his government will not enter negotiations while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports.

In a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Saturday night, Pezeshkian said Washington “should first remove operational obstacles, including the blockade,” before any new talks can begin, according to the ISNA and Tasnim news agencies.

Meanwhile, during his visit to Islamabad on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held separate meetings with Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Sharif.

In a post on Telegram, Araghchi said their discussions covered regional dynamics and Iran’s non-negotiable positions without disclosing specifics. He added that Tehran intends to engage with Pakistan’s mediation efforts “until a result is achieved”.

After departing Islamabad on Saturday, Araghchi travelled to Oman, where he discussed ways to end the conflict with Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said, according to state media.

He was then scheduled to continue on to Russia. Iran’s IRNA news agency said Araghchi is expected to return to Islamabad on Sunday for additional talks.

What has Pakistan said?

Despite hardening public positions from Washington and Tehran, Pakistan’s political and military leadership is continuing to mediate, two Pakistani officials said on Sunday, according to The Associated Press news agency. They were quoted as describing the indirect ceasefire contacts as still alive but fragile.

There were no immediate plans for US envoys to return for talks, according to the Pakistani officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media, AP added.

Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett, reporting from Islamabad, said Pakistani officials are underscoring that the expected return of Araghchi to Islamabad is seen as a “hopeful sign”.

“What they hope is that this will in fact be something that can be incremental in the process and will advance forward,” she reported.

What is happening with the ceasefire?

The US-Iran ceasefire began on April 8 after nearly six weeks of US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory Iranian attacks against Israel and across the Gulf region.

The two sides held talks in Islamabad on April 11 aimed at securing a permanent deal, but they ended after 21 hours with no breakthrough.

After repeated threats of restarting the war if Iran did not heed Washington’s demands, Trump extended the ceasefire on Tuesday without a set deadline, saying he was in no rush to conclude a peace deal with Iran.

While the truce has held for the most part, the two sides continue to accuse each other of violations.

Iranian forces, which have essentially blocked the Strait of Hormuz, have captured commercial vessels, and the US has intercepted or detained ships suspected of violating its naval blockade of Iranian ports just one week after the ceasefire went into effect.

The naval blockade is seen by Iran as a breach of the ceasefire. Tehran has warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible as long as the blockade remains in place.

The critical waterway has become a central dispute in the conflict. One-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies were shipped through the strait, which links the Gulf to the Arabian Sea, before the war began.

Iran insists on sovereignty over the waterway, which lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. It has also floated the idea of levying tolls while Washington demands full freedom of navigation. The Gulf nations, which export most of their petroleum through the strait, have opposed the Iranian plan to impose tolls.

Another key issue is the debate over Iran’s stock of enriched uranium.

The US and Israel are pushing for zero uranium enrichment and have accused Iran of working towards building a nuclear weapon while providing no evidence for their claims.

Iran has insisted its enrichment effort is for civilian purposes only. It is a signatory to the 1970 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and Tehran says it has the right to pursue a civilian nuclear programme. But according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the global nuclear watchdog, Iran has enriched uranium to 60 percent, a level that is far higher than what is needed for civilian use.

Published on 21/04/2026 – 12:14 GMT+2•Updated
12:16

Oil prices edged slightly higher, European indices traded flat, while Asian markets surged on Tuesday morning as investors monitored potential US-Iran negotiations and the final 48 hours of the current ceasefire.

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At the time of writing, US benchmark crude was up 8.5% from last Friday’s low to around $86.3 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, was around 9.5% higher at roughly $94.5 a barrel.

As for European markets, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 were trading within a 0.2% range.

The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were all similarly trading within a 0.3% range.

On Wall Street, US futures were also all trading within a 0.3% range with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading. The S&P 500 closed marginally lower by 0.2% on Monday at 7109 points.

Despite US representatives, including special envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, travelling to Islamabad as part of renewed efforts to secure an agreement, no concrete progress on US-Iran negotiations has been announced.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the current ceasefire ends on Wednesday keeping markets in a state of uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump has asserted that the deal currently being negotiated will be better than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed by US President Barack Obama in 2015 and from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

Latest on US-Iran negotiations

Following the arrival of US representatives to Islamabad there has been no developments on the negotiations with Iran.

Even though US President Donald Trump confidently declared that there is a historic deal in the works, public statements from major Iranian figures seem to indicate otherwise.

Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and the person previously heading the talks with the US, made sweeping declarations via X on Monday stating that the country will “not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats” and “has prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield”.

Previously, other Iranian representatives have also described US demands as “excessive”.

For the time being, markets eagerly await developments and are highly sensitive to any headlines about the situation.

Associated British Foods and Primark demerger

Although European markets are trading flat, major news in the retail consumer sector has come out of the UK.

Associated British Foods (ABF) is poised to announce the outcome this week of a strategic review into demerging its fast-fashion retail arm Primark, from its diversified food business.

The conglomerate, controlled by the billionaire Weston family, has been working with advisers from Rothschild & Co to assess whether the split would maximise long-term shareholder value.

Analysts argue the move makes sense because of the limited operational synergies between the two divisions: the food arm generates steady cash flows from brands such as Twinings, Patak’s, Jordans cereals and Allied Bakeries, while Primark has pursued aggressive international expansion in a fiercely competitive retail sector.

The decision comes as ABF faces tough trading conditions, with the group warning in January of flat annual sales and declining profits, further pressured by rising costs and the fallout from the Iran conflict, including potential increases in petrochemical prices.

The US and Iran are supposed to have another round of direct talks in Pakistan on Tuesday, but will the Iranians skip it like they are threatening and what do all sides want? Al Jazeera asked political analyst Mahjoob Zweiri.

European stock markets slipped on Monday as investor sentiment weakened amid renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. The downturn followed the seizure of an Iranian cargo ship by US forces and Tehran’s vow of retaliation, raising fears that a fragile ceasefire nearing its expiry may collapse.

The situation has been further complicated by Iran’s rejection of fresh peace talks and ongoing uncertainty over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy route.

Market Reaction

The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined by 0.8%, reflecting broad-based caution across financial markets. Major indices also moved lower, with Germany’s DAX down 1% and France’s CAC 40 falling 0.9%.

Losses were concentrated in sectors sensitive to geopolitical risk. Travel and leisure stocks led declines, followed by banking and automobile shares, which also came under pressure. In contrast, energy stocks rose as oil prices surged, reflecting concerns about supply disruptions.

Oil and Energy Impact

Crude oil prices jumped sharply, with Brent crude rising more than 5% to around $95 a barrel. The increase reflects heightened fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global energy trade passes.

Energy-dependent European economies remain particularly sensitive to price volatility, adding to investor caution across broader markets.

Geopolitical Tensions

Market sentiment shifted sharply from the previous week’s optimism, when easing signals from the Strait of Hormuz had briefly boosted equities. That optimism faded quickly after renewed maritime incidents and political escalation.

The United States and Iran continue to exchange accusations over ceasefire violations, while diplomatic efforts appear increasingly uncertain. The rejection of fresh negotiations by Iran and continued US pressure have added to concerns that the conflict could intensify further.

Outlook

Financial markets remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East. With the ceasefire approaching its expiration and no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, volatility is expected to persist.

Investors are likely to remain cautious until there is greater clarity on both maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and the future of US–Iran relations.

With information from Reuters.

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan is gearing up to host the second round of talks between the United States and Iran aimed at ending their war, but rising tensions in recent hours have cast uncertainty over Tehran’s participation, as the deadline nears for the end of the two-week ceasefire.

Unlike the first round of talks held in Islamabad on April 11, the upcoming negotiations could last for multiple days until a temporary deal – mediators are calling it a memorandum of understanding – is signed, effectively extending the ceasefire, sources close to these efforts have told Al Jazeera. If the MoU is agreed, it would give negotiators a longer window – even up to 60 days – to secure a longer peace deal.

But all of that hinges on the participation of Iran, which – as of Monday morning – has not confirmed that it will be sending its negotiators to Islamabad. That follows a rapid escalation in tensions over the past 24 hours.

US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that his representatives were heading to Pakistan for a second round of negotiations with Iran, as a fragile ceasefire, due to expire on Wednesday, edges towards its deadline.  But Trump accompanied his announcement with a revival of earlier pre-ceasefire threats to bomb Iran’s energy and power facilities.

“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan. They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. He accused Iran of a “Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement” after Iranian gunboats fired on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, hitting ships including a French vessel and a British freighter.

“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran,” Trump wrote. “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”

The tensions did not ease overnight. In the early hours of Monday, Trump announced on Truth Social that the US Navy guided missile destroyer USS Spruance had intercepted an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, the Touska, nearly 900 feet (274 metres) long, in the Gulf of Oman after its crew refused to heed warnings to stop.

“Our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engine room,” Trump wrote. US Marines have now taken charge of the vessel, which Trump alleged was under US Treasury sanctions for prior illegal activity.

Iran has described the seizure of the ship as “piracy”.

Pakistan’s preparations

Amid those military and social media exchanges between Iran and the United States, Pakistan has been busy getting ready to host talks that it – as the principal mediator between Washington and Tehran – hopes will yield a deal to end the war, now into its eighth week.

Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel asked guests to vacate by Sunday afternoon. The Serena Hotel, just a few kilometres away and the venue for the first round of talks a week earlier, soon issued the same order and stopped taking reservations.

Roads into the Red Zone, the capital’s most heavily fortified area, were sealed. The district houses key government buildings, including the National Assembly, foreign embassies and both five-star hotels. Thousands of additional police and paramilitary personnel arrived from across the country.

Barbed wire and barricades lined the streets, and most access routes were shut.

But even before Trump’s latest threat to blow up Iranian energy and power facilities, and the subsequent hijacking of the Iranian ship, Tehran was unclear about whether it would join the talks.

Minutes before Trump’s Truth Social message, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam wrote on his social media that violations of international law, the continuation of the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threats of further strikes, and what he described as unreasonable demands could not be reconciled with a genuine pursuit of peace.

“As long as the naval blockade remains, faultlines remain,” he added.

The negotiators: The US and Iranian teams

Trump first said on Sunday that Vice President JD Vance, who had led the US team in the first round of Islamabad talks, would not visit the Pakistani capital this time around, because of security concerns.

But White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later said that Vance would join the US delegation, alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, the same team that led the first round.

Flight tracking data showed at least four US government aircraft carrying communications equipment and motorcade support landed on Sunday at PAF Base Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, the primary VIP entry point for Islamabad.

However, by late night, sources close to mediators told Al Jazeera that it was once again unclear whether Vance would travel to Islamabad on Monday. They said that the US might now send Witkoff and Kushner to Islamabad first, and if the talks actually happen, Vance might join them.

Amid Iranian hesitation over whether to join the Islamabad talks, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The call lasted about 45 minutes, the Pakistan PM’s office said.

Sharif briefed Pezeshkian on his recent visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye, where he met with their leaders, describing those engagements as helpful in “building consensus in support of a sustained process of dialogue and diplomacy”.

But by early Monday morning, Trump’s revived threats and the capture of the Iranian cargo ship have left the prospects of talks in Islamabad even more on edge than before.

Iran pushes back

Tehran pushed back sharply against Trump’s flurry of social media posts on Sunday.

Iran’s state news agency IRNA said reports of a second round of talks in Islamabad were “not correct”, and blamed the lack of progress on what it described as American “greed”, unreasonable demands, shifting positions and “continuous contradictions”.

According to IRNA, the naval blockade – imposed by Trump last Monday, two days after the first round of Islamabad talks – violated the ceasefire understanding and had “so far prevented progress in negotiations”.

It added that “no clear prospect for productive negotiations is foreseen” under current conditions and dismissed US statements on talks as “a media game”, aimed at pressuring Iran through a “blame game”.

In a post on X, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei went further, describing the US naval blockade as “unlawful and criminal” and saying it amounted to “war crime and crime against humanity”.

Despite the public denials, Iranian sources earlier on Sunday indicated a delegation was expected in Pakistan on Tuesday. It could include Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Tehran’s team in the first round, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had joined him then.

Pakistan’s foreign ministry said Araghchi and his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar spoke by phone on Sunday and discussed “the need for continued dialogue and engagement as essential to resolving the current issues as soon as possible”.

Analysts say the gap between Iran’s public stance and private signalling reflects a deliberate strategy.

“This gap reflects a dual-track negotiation strategy,” Seyed Mojtaba Jalalzadeh, an international relations analyst based in Tehran, told Al Jazeera. “At the public level, Iran maintains a hardline position to preserve domestic legitimacy and increase its leverage; at the non-public level, by dispatching a team to Islamabad, it signals that it has not abandoned diplomacy but is instead testing its conditions.”

Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, agreed.

“When warring parties come to the table to negotiate, they come with the understanding that there is occasionally a gap between public posturing and private positions,” he told Al Jazeera. “My sense is that they will pick up from where they left off, rather than getting too caught up in the rhetoric that has emerged since”.

That divergence extends to the pace of negotiations.

Washington has pushed for a rapid resolution, with Trump repeatedly declaring the war “close to over” even as fighting continues. Tehran, by contrast, has shown little inclination to be rushed.

A diplomat in Islamabad, who has followed the talks closely, described the contrast.

“The previous round of talks is a great example. It appeared as if the Americans brought a stop-watch, whereas the Iranians came armed with a calendar,” the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.

What is achievable?

Officials do not expect a final deal this week.

The immediate goal is likely to be a ceasefire extension, with both sides in Islamabad working towards a limited understanding.

Pakistani officials expressed cautious optimism, saying the process was moving in a positive direction while stressing that a final agreement would require sustained engagement and compromise.

Unlike the first round, talks could run for several days, with the aim of agreeing on a framework for broader negotiations in the coming weeks and months.

Humayun cautioned against viewing the first round as a failure.

“I wouldn’t characterise the first round as having failed, that assumes expectations of resolving the most difficult issues early on, which is unlikely in talks of this nature where the issues are so complex,” he said.

For this round, a ceasefire extension would be “a meaningful outcome in itself”, while both sides would likely be “probing for any shifts or flexibility in positions since they last spoke”.

It is that movement, he added, that would allow both sides to “politically sanction an extension of the ceasefire”.

“A ceasefire extension could represent the most minimal form of agreement achievable in this round,” Jalalzadeh said, adding that the deal Washington seeks is “far broader in scope and is rooted in a history stretching back 47 years”.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh, speaking on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkiye over the weekend, said “significant progress” had been made in the previous round but stressed that a framework must be agreed upon before talks could advance.

He described US demands on Iran’s nuclear programme as “maximalist”.

Ghalibaf was more direct. “There are many gaps and some fundamental points remain,” he said in televised remarks on Saturday night. “We are still far from the final discussion”.

The core sticking points, Iran’s nuclear programme and control of the Strait of Hormuz, remain unresolved since the first round, held on April 11, which lasted 21 hours and ended without agreement.

A separate Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is now in place, removing one of Tehran’s stated conditions for talks.

But Jalalzadeh said the ceasefire fell well short of satisfying Iran’s demands. “The current Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is temporary, fragile, and incomplete,” he told Al Jazeera, noting that Hezbollah – Tehran’s most powerful regional ally – was absent from the agreement, which the Lebanese government negotiated with Israel.

“This ceasefire is a tactical palliative, not a substitute for Iran’s strategic demand,” he said, adding that Tehran’s insistence on Lebanon being part of any broader deal, rather than handled through a separate arrangement, remained unchanged.

Humayun said Iran would want the Israel-Lebanon truce to hold and ideally include “some form of assurance against violations”.

The broader question, he said, is “whether Iran can secure at least some degree of US pressure on Israel to adhere to the ceasefire and to refrain from further escalation”.

The Sharif-Pezeshkian call capped an intensive week of Pakistani diplomacy.

Field Marshal Asim Munir travelled to Tehran last Wednesday, carrying what officials described as a new message from Washington.

Iranian Ambassador Reza Amiri Moghadam said last week in Islamabad that Tehran would “do talks in Pakistan and nowhere else, because we trust Pakistan”.

Analysts say Pakistan’s value as a mediator lies in the rare credibility it holds with both sides.

Humayun said that even if this round produces no breakthrough, it would not necessarily erode trust in Islamabad.

“All parties understand how difficult these issues are and that, without Pakistan’s facilitation, they may not have reached this point at all,” he said.

Jalalzadeh offered a more cautious assessment, saying Pakistan’s role ultimately depends on results.

“If this round also fails, its standing as an effective mediator will be weakened, even if it continues to function as a minimal communication channel,” he said.

Still, he noted, Islamabad has already distinguished itself among countries that have attempted mediation, filling a gap left by others and establishing itself as a credible host.

Trump, however, insisted a deal would come regardless.

“It will happen. One way or another. The nice way or the hard way,” he told ABC News. “You can quote me.”

Brent crude rises more than 7 percent as Washington and Tehran offer conflicting accounts on ceasefire negotiations.

Oil prices have risen sharply following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting messages about the prospect of renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures, the primary benchmark for global prices, jumped more than 7 percent in Asia on Monday as the outlook for peace between Washington and Tehran darkened.

Prices eased somewhat later in the morning, with the benchmark at $94.69 a barrel as of 02:05 GMT, up from just under $90.40 on Friday.

The latest price surge came after US President Donald Trump said US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel that had attempted to evade the US blockade of Iran’s ports.

Trump’s announcement followed reports by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre over the weekend that two vessels came under attack while transiting the strait.

Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker, while an “unknown projectile” struck a container ship, according to the UKMTO.

After declaring the strait “completely open” on Friday, Tehran reversed course less than 24 hours later, citing the ongoing US blockade.

Earlier on Sunday, Trump said that a US delegation would travel to Pakistan on Monday to hold a second round of ceasefire talks with Iranian officials.

Iranian state news outlet IRNA later reported that Tehran would not participate in the talks, citing the US blockade and Washington’s “excessive demands” and “unrealistic expectations”.

A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is set to expire on Wednesday if the sides cannot agree on an extension.

An initial round of talks held in Islamabad earlier this month broke down without any agreement between the sides.

Iran’s effective closure of the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, has driven a surge in fuel prices worldwide, forcing governments to tap emergency supplies and roll out energy-saving measures.

Nineteen vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, up from 10 the previous day, but far below the historical average of 138 daily transits, according to the UKMTO.

Asia’s main stock markets opened higher on Monday despite the dimming prospects of de-escalation.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 1 percent in morning trading, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 1.3 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose about 0.5 percent, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai gained more than 0.4 percent.

Field Marshal Asim Munir leaves Tehran while premier Shehbaz Sharif heads home from Turkiye amid hopes of another round of US-Iran talks.

Pakistan’s army chief and the prime minister have wrapped up separate diplomatic visits aimed at advancing efforts to end the United States-Iran conflict, with Field Marshal Asim Munir leaving Tehran and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif returning from Turkiye.

Munir met Iran’s leadership and peace negotiators during a three-day visit to Tehran, a Pakistani military statement said on Saturday.

The visit demonstrated Pakistan’s “unwavering resolve to facilitate a negotiated settlement… and to promote peace, stability and prosperity,” the military said ahead of expected US-Iran talks in Islamabad in the coming days.

Munir held talks with the country’s president, foreign minister, parliament speaker and head of Iran’s military central command centre.

Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, led the Iranian delegation to Islamabad for peace talks with the US last week, the highest level face-to-face contact between Washington and Tehran in decades.

Those talks ended without agreement, and a ceasefire is due to expire on April 22.

But diplomacy has continued, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye to push the peace process.

His three-country trip concluded on Saturday, with Sharif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar departing a diplomacy forum in Antalya, according to statements from both officials.

“I leave Antalya [Turkish city] with fond memories and a renewed commitment to further strengthening the enduring fraternal bonds between our two nations, and to continuing our close cooperation to advance dialogue and diplomacy for lasting peace and stability in the region,” Sharif posted on X.

The flurry of diplomacy comes as further negotiations are expected in Pakistan in the coming days as Islamabad intensifies contacts with regional and global leaders in an effort to sustain momentum towards a US-Iran deal.

Pressure for a deal between the two countries has grown after Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, hours after its reopening following the start of a ceasefire in Lebanon. Tehran accused the US of violating a deal to reopen the strategically important waterway.

Donald Trump has said a second round of talks with Iran could be held in Pakistan in the coming days. The New York Post reported that Trump praised Munir, saying he was “doing a great job”.

Reporting from Islamabad, Al Jazeera’s Kamal Hyder said Munir landed back home on Saturday as Pakistan prepared for another round of US-Iran talks expected “within the next few days”.

“We have also seen a lot of praise from the Trump administration on social media, praising the Pakistani leadership. So all eyes are on Islamabad. Serious differences remain, but there is a flurry of diplomatic activity and a hope and expectation that some sort of breakthrough may happen,” he said.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and United States President Donald Trump have said that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels.

Araghchi declared on Friday that the strategic waterwat was “completely open” in line with the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that took effect the previous day.

Trump affirmed on social media that the strait was open, later claiming that Iran had agreed to “never close the Strait of Hormuz again”. However, he also posted that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports would “remain in full force”.

In parallel, France and the United Kingdom hosted a meeting in Paris involving about 40 countries, which agreed to play a role in restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz once the US-Israeli war on Iran stops.

The blocking of tankers from using the strait, through which about 20 percent of the world’s crude flows on a typical day, has led to a global surge in fuel prices.

World leaders have welcomed the news with cautious optimism amid mixed messages from the US and Iran:

United States

“The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Minutes later, he issued another post saying the US Navy’s blockade on Iranian ships and ports “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear programme.

Later, Trump told the news agency AFP that a deal to end the war on Iran was “close”, saying there were “no sticking points” left between Washington and Tehran.

Iran

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the strait was “declared completely open” and would remain open for the remaining period of the 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, which took effect overnight Thursday into Friday.

Some Iranian state media reports later appeared to contradict Araghchi’s announcement, with a senior military official telling state media that only nonmilitary vessels would be allowed to transit with permission from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy.

The Fars news agency, which is close to the IRGC, noted a “strange silence from the Supreme National Security Council”, the de facto top decision-making body in the country, as the status of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains unknown.

United Kingdom

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer cohosted a summit on a potential military mission to secure the Hormuz Strait with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Friday, with about 30 to 40 countries participating in person or by video conference.

On the sidelines, Starmer cautiously welcomed news of the strait’s reopening but said it must become “both lasting and a workable proposal”.

He said the UK and France would lead a “strictly peaceful and defensive” multinational mission to protect freedom of navigation as soon as conditions allow.

France

Speaking after the gathering, Macron said, “We all demand the full, immediate and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by all parties.”

“We all oppose any restrictions or system of agreements that would, in effect, amount to an attempt to ⁠privatise the strait – and, of course, any toll system,” he added.

Macron’s office said roles for members of the international coalition working to reopen the strait could include “intelligence, mine-clearing capabilities, military escorts [and] communication procedures with coastal states”.

Germany

Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany could contribute mine clearance and intelligence capabilities to the international mission, but would need parliamentary support and a ″secure legal basis″ such as a UN Security Council resolution.

He said he wanted US involvement in the international mission to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “We believe this would be desirable,″ he said.

Trump later appeared to rebuff his overtures, saying on social media that he had received a call from NATO, but declined its assistance in no uncertain terms.

Finland

Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who participated in the Paris summit, said on X, “We welcome Iran’s announcement on opening the Strait. Lasting solutions require diplomacy,”

United Nations

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio ⁠Guterres on ⁠Friday welcomed the opening ‌of Strait of Hormuz by Iran ⁠and said ⁠it was “a ⁠step in the ⁠right ⁠direction”.

International Maritime Organisation

Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the UN shipping agency said, “We are currently verifying the recent announcement related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in terms of its compliance with freedom of navigation for all merchant vessels and secure ‌passage.”

Shipping companies

The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association said several things had to be clarified before any ships can transit the strait, including the presence of mines, Iranian conditions and practical implementation.

“If this represents a step towards an opening, it is a welcome development,” said Knut Arild Hareide, CEO of the association, which represents 130 companies with some 1,500 vessels.

A spokesperson for Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd Shipping Company said, “We are now beginning to assess the new situation and the risks involved … For the time being, therefore, we are still refraining from passing through the strait.”

In a statement, Denmark’s Maersk said: “We have noted the announcement. The safety of our crew, vessels and customers’ cargo remains our priority. Since the outbreak of the conflict, we have followed the guidance of our security partners in the region, and the recommendation so far has been to avoid transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

“Any decision to transit the strait will be based on risk assessments and close monitoring of the security situation, with the latest developments also included in the ongoing assessments.”

Markets

Oil prices plunged after Iran’s announcement that passage for commercial vessels would remain “completely open” for the duration of a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon.

“This news is having an immediate impact on markets,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “This is the biggest development so far during the ceasefire, and it gives hope that the war will end soon, and supply chains will return to some normality.”

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi discusses the prospect that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon could lead to a comprehensive deal between the US and Iran to end regional hostilities.

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday confirmed that the United States and Iran were in discussions – through Islamabad – to hold a second meeting between their negotiators to end their now nearly seven-week war, with a fragile ceasefire announced on April 8 days away from expiring.

But it added that no date had been set for that next round of negotiations, even as Islamabad stepped up a parallel diplomatic push to keep the process alive.

“Who will come, how big the delegation will be, who will stay, and who will go is for the parties to decide,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi told reporters in Islamabad, referring to what upcoming talks might look like. “As a mediator, it’s important for us to keep the talks confidential. We had the details and information of the talks entrusted to us by the negotiating parties.” 

Speaking of the first round of talks on April 12 in Islamabad, which concluded without a deal, Andrabi said: “There was neither a breakthrough nor a breakdown.”

The spokesperson confirmed that nuclear issues remained among the key subjects under discussion, but declined to elaborate.

His comments came as Pakistan’s civil and military leadership is travelling across the region in what some observers have begun calling the “Islamabad Process”, reflecting the government’s attempt to frame negotiations as an ongoing diplomatic effort rather than a one-off engagement.

Parallel diplomatic tracks

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Doha on Thursday, the second stop of a four-day regional tour that began with Jeddah on Wednesday, and will see him visiting Antalya next.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) Asim Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday with a delegation that included Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi.

Munir was received at the airport with a warm hug from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who said he was “delighted” to welcome the field marshal and expressed gratitude for Pakistan’s “gracious hosting of dialogue”.

On Thursday, Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led Tehran’s delegation at the Islamabad talks, also met Munir.

Reza Amiri Moghadam, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, said at an event in Islamabad that Tehran would not consider any venue other than Pakistan for talks with Washington.

“We will do talks in Pakistan and nowhere else, because we trust Pakistan,” he said.

Muhammad Faisal, a Pakistani security analyst and scholar at the University of Technology Sydney, said the parallel outreach reflected a deliberate division of labour.

“Pakistan’s strategy appears to be dual-tracked: PM Sharif is reassuring Gulf allies and attempting to build a broader support coalition, while CDF Munir is engaged in hard negotiations between the two sides to narrow gaps between Iran and the US, with an eye on extending the ceasefire and reaching a broader understanding,” he told Al Jazeera.

Reports that Munir might travel to Washington, DC after Tehran were denied by security officials, who called them “speculative”. Andrabi said he was not aware of any such development.

In Jeddah on Wednesday, Sharif met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and expressed “full solidarity and support” for the kingdom following regional escalation, according to Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry. The crown prince praised what Riyadh described as the “constructive role” played by both Sharif and Munir.

In Doha, Sharif met Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and discussed “the regional situation, particularly in the Gulf region”, underscoring “the importance of de-escalation, dialogue and close international coordination to ensure peace and stability”, the prime minister’s office said.

From Doha, Sharif heads to Antalya with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. They are expected to meet counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and potentially Egypt on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum on April 17.

Regional security push

The Antalya meeting is part of a broader diplomatic effort. Turkiye is preparing to host talks on a regional security platform involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and possibly Egypt, according to officials familiar with the discussions.

It would be the third such meeting in a month, following earlier rounds of talks in Riyadh and Islamabad.

The goal is to establish a platform for regular, structured cooperation on regional security issues, the officials said, stressing the discussions are distinct from current efforts to end the Iran war.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed that discussions were under way, but said no agreement had been finalised.

“This pact is necessary so that countries can be assured of one another,” he told the state-run Anadolu Agency on Monday.

Turkiye also reaffirmed support for the US-Iran peace process on Thursday.

“We will continue to provide the necessary support for the ongoing ceasefire to turn into a permanent truce and eventually lasting peace, without becoming more complex and difficult to manage,” the Defence Ministry said, adding that it expected “the parties will be constructive in the ongoing negotiation process”.

Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said senior officials from the four countries had also met in Islamabad earlier this week to prepare recommendations for Antalya.

Ceasefire under strain

The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8, which halted attacks in Iran and the Gulf, is due to expire on April 22. While still holding, it is under increasing strain.

A US naval blockade on Iranian ports remains in place, with the US Central Command saying its forces had turned away nine ships as of Wednesday.

Kamran Yousuf, an Islamabad-based journalist and expert on diplomatic affairs, said he expected the ceasefire to be extended.

“I would be really surprised if the current ceasefire is not extended. There is little appetite on both sides to go back to war. There are enough signs on the ground that if there is no deal before the truce expires, the ceasefire will be extended,” he told Al Jazeera.

Faisal offered a more cautious assessment, warning that failure to secure a second round would shift Pakistan’s role.

“Pakistan’s mediation will not collapse immediately, but Islamabad’s role will change from mediator to crisis manager. If hostilities resume, Pakistan will focus again on brokering a ceasefire,” he said.

Despite uncertainty, signals from both Washington and Tehran have remained cautiously optimistic.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said further talks would “very likely” take place in Islamabad, adding, “We feel good about the prospects of a deal.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said multiple messages had been exchanged with Washington through Pakistan since April 12.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that talks could resume within two days and that Washington was “more inclined to go” to Pakistan.

Sticking points remain

The path to a second round remains complicated by unresolved disputes.

Iran has insisted that Lebanon be included in any agreement, arguing that ongoing Israeli strikes there, which have killed more than 2,000 people and displaced 1.2 million, cannot be separated from the wider conflict.

On April 14, the United States convened a trilateral meeting in Washington with the ambassadors of Israel and Lebanon, the first direct engagement between the two sides since 1993.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mediated the talks, which both sides described as “productive”, but no ceasefire or follow-up meeting was agreed.

Washington has maintained that any Lebanon deal must remain separate from US-Iran negotiations, rejecting Tehran’s position. On Thursday, Israel said its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would speak on the phone with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun — but Beirut had not confirmed any plans for a telephone conversation. The two countries do not have formal diplomatic relations.

At Thursday’s briefing, Andrabi aligned Pakistan with Iran on this issue.

“Peace in Lebanon is essential for US-Iran peace talks,” he said, adding that “signs of improvement on the Israel-Lebanon front over the past two days are encouraging.”

Yousuf said a Lebanon ceasefire would send an important signal to Iran.

“Extending the ceasefire to Lebanon will be an important confidence-building measure, a signal from the US that it is serious about a second round. It will also give Tehran good reason to return to the table,” he said.

But he added that the deeper challenge remained Iran’s nuclear programme.

“The nuclear issue is at the heart of the real problem. The flurry of shuttle diplomacy initiated by Pakistan is aimed at bridging the gap between the two sides,” he said.

Grace Wermenbol, a former US national security official and senior visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said Washington’s approach to Lebanon would hinge on Trump’s willingness to pressure Israel.

“A clear pathway to a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon exists,” she told Al Jazeera. “The question is whether Trump will be willing to apply the pressure necessary on Israel to halt its military offensive and allow the Lebanese government to continue its military disarmament efforts. So far, and this is also true for the months preceding the latest escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, we have not seen this pressure materialise.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains another major obstacle.

The waterway, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes during peacetime, has effectively been blocked by Iran since early in the war, except for ships belonging to countries that have struck individual deals with Tehran.

Starting Monday, the US imposed its own naval blockade on the strait, to prevent any Iran-linked vessel from passing through.

“Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the primary issue in US-Iranian negotiations. Opening it is crucial to easing upward pressure on oil prices and instilling confidence in global markets,” Wermenbol said.

She added that Tehran appeared to be betting Washington would eventually back down.

“There is no easy military option here,” she said. “The only way to resolve this issue and remove the threat to maritime traffic will need to involve a diplomatic deal.”

US–Iran talks gain pace as Pakistan mediates, with fresh optimism for a new round of talks in Islamabad.

Efforts to revive US-Iran negotiations are gathering pace, with Pakistan again having an important mediating role as its leaders hold high-level talks in Tehran and the Gulf.

Amid a renewed push to end the war, a Pakistani delegation, led by army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is in Tehran. He is expected to relay messages from the United States, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, arrived in Saudi Arabia as part of a regional tour that includes Qatar and Turkiye.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmael Baghaei, said Tehran and Washington have remained in contact since talks in Islamabad ended on Sunday. On Wednesday, Washington signalled optimism about a new round of talks in the Pakistani capital.

But the diplomatic push comes amid increasing tension, as Iran warns it could expand its response to the US naval blockade beyond its own waters.

Divisions in Washington persist, with the US Senate rejecting a measure to limit the war without congressional approval.

Here is what we know:

In Iran

• Hormuz tensions remain high: Adviser Mohsen Rezaei warned that Iran could target US ships, if Washington continues to enforce its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The warning comes as the US tightens restrictions on vessels linked to Iranian ports, with ships already being turned back amid the standoff.
• Nuclear issue shows potential breakthrough: Analyst Abas Aslani says Tehran is open to nuclear transparency if Washington is serious about a deal, but new US sanctions and the blockade of Iranian ports are fuelling distrust.
• “There is a sense of distrust, and at the moment, Iran is ready for every possible scenario, either progress in the negotiations or returning to the military conflict,” he told Al Jazeera.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of consequences over US “provocative actions” in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz during a call with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

War diplomacy

• Round two of talks: The US is discussing holding a second round of peace talks with Iran and is optimistic about reaching a deal, the White House said.
• China supports ‘momentum’ of peace talks: China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, told his Iranian counterpart that Beijing “supports maintaining the momentum of the ceasefire and peace talks”.
• Saudi crown prince, Pakistan PM meet: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Shehbaz Sharif met in Jeddah to discuss regional issues, including US-Iran negotiations. Talks hosted by Pakistan were a key focus, said the Saudi Press Agency.
• US and Qatar: US President Trump discussed regional developments and energy concerns, specifically regarding the oil market and gas prices, with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

In the US

• US President Donald Trump has announced that Israeli and Lebanese leaders will hold direct talks later today – their first such contact in 34 years.
• New oil sanctions: US officials targeted more than two dozen individuals, along with companies and vessels linked to the oil transport network of Iranian shipping magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani.
• US says 10 vessels blocked from Iranian ports: The US military’s Middle East command (CENTCOM) said 10 ships were stopped or redirected within the first 48 hours of a naval blockade, with none leaving Iranian ports.
• US Congress divisions: The Senate rejected efforts to limit US involvement in the war and blocked measures targeting arms sales to Israel, though growing opposition signals shifting political pressure.

In Israel

• ‘Identical’ goals: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel and the US are fully aligned in their objectives to contain Iran.
• Ceasefire pressure, no halt in fighting: Despite pressure, Netanyahu said Israel would continue military operations.
• End of Hezbollah: The Israeli prime minister said the country’s top priority in Lebanon was to secure the “dismantling” of Hezbollah, in its first direct talks with the country in decades.
• “There are two central objectives: first, the dismantling of Hezbollah; second, a sustainable peace… achieved through strength,” he said.

In Lebanon

• Relentless strikes continue: Air raids and shelling hit southern and eastern Lebanon, including Kafr Sir and Nabatieh, while a “triple-tap” strike in Mayfadoun killed four paramedics. Israeli vehicles and bulldozers remain active.
• Lebanon’s Minister for Administrative Reform Fadi Makki said an Israeli attack that killed four paramedics in southern Lebanon was “a new war crime”.
• Rising toll: Israeli strikes have killed at least 2,167 and injured more than 7,000 people, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. About 1.2 million people have been displaced since March 2. Israel has been accused of destroying homes in southern Lebanon, as happened in Gaza.
• ‘Homes that no longer exist’: “Even if a ceasefire is reached, the reality on the ground is devastating.. entire communities along the border have been destroyed,” Al Jazeera’s Malcolm Webb reported from Beirut. He added that Israel has yet to secure its objective of controlling territory up to the Litani River.
• Balakrishnan Rajagopal, the UN special rapporteur on the right to housing, has joined other UN human rights experts, calling for Israel to immediately stop its bombing of Lebanon. Rajagopal wrote on social media that the Israeli military is using the “same strategy” in southern Lebanon as in Gaza or the occupied West Bank.
• Diplomatic tensions grow: Hezbollah has condemned US-hosted Israel-Lebanon talks as “shameful,” while a failed Senate vote to block bulldozer sales to Israel highlights increasing concern over civilian harm.

Global economy

• Growing hunger fears: The war could push millions more towards hunger as its economic fallout reverberates around the globe, the World Bank’s chief economist told AFP.
• “You have about 300 million people who suffer from acute food insecurity already,” Indermit Gill said.  “That’ll go up by about 20 percent very, very quickly,” as knock-on effects grow.
• Wall Street records: Major Wall Street stock indices finished at record highs on Wednesday following optimism about an accord in the US-Iran conflict.

Pakistani officials are expecting a “major breakthrough” in talks between Iran and the United States on Tehran’s nuclear programme, sources have told Al Jazeera, as Islamabad steps up diplomatic efforts to end a war that has killed thousands of people.

The optimism on Wednesday came as a high-level Pakistani delegation, headed by Army Chief Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran to deliver a message from the US to the Iranian leadership, according to Iran’s Press TV broadcaster.

He was received by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who expressed gratitude for Pakistan’s “gracious hosting of dialogue”. According to Press TV, Munir is also seeking to lay the groundwork for a second round of talks between the US and Iran.

Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid, who has been covering the US-Iran talks, said Pakistani officials were expecting “a major breakthrough on the nuclear front” and that the delegates were continuing to relay messages back and forth between Washington and Tehran.

The central sticking point remains the duration of any enrichment freeze by Iran and the country’s stockpile of 440 kilogrammes of highly enriched uranium.

“We know that both sides are essentially stuck on between five years of no enrichment to 20 years of no enrichment. And there is a solution in the middle,” Bin Javaid said.

“There’s also talk about what Iran will do with the 440kg of nuclear-enriched material that it has in the country. There are multiple options – whether sending it abroad to a third party or bringing it down to either uranium in its natural form or up to 3 percent,” he said.

“According to these sources, there’s major headway that has been made, and they’re expecting that the Pakistanis are going to be able to convince Tehran,” he added.

Shuttle diplomacy

The shuttle diplomacy by Pakistan came after talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad ended over the weekend without an agreement to end the war. Mediators are pressing for a compromise on three main issues: Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz – which Tehran has effectively closed, causing a surge in global oil prices – and compensation for wartime damages.

The conflict, launched by the US and Israel on February 28, has killed more than 3,000 people in Iran and triggered retaliatory attacks by Tehran on Gulf countries. It has also reignited a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israeli forces have killed more than 2,000 people since March 2.

A ceasefire between Tehran and Washington on April 8 has halted attacks in Iran and the Gulf, but strikes by Israeli forces on Lebanon have continued.

Separately on Wednesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also travelled to Saudi Arabia as part of a regional tour that also includes stops in Qatar and Turkiye. Al Jazeera’s Bin Javaid said Sharif’s tour was part of a “double-pronged strategy”.

“While the Iranians are speaking to the Pakistani military chief, the Pakistani prime minister and foreign minister are talking to the Saudis and the Qataris. The day after, they go to Turkiye,” he said, with the aim of neutralising any detractors to a deal

Bin Javaid said the detractors include elements in Tehran, in Washington, DC, and most of all, Israel, “which does not want a peace deal and wants a perpetual war in the region”.

‘Very close to over’

The diplomatic push appears bolstered by optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump, who said late on Tuesday that the world should brace for an “amazing two days” and the war on Iran is “very close to over”.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later said that further negotiations would likely be held in Islamabad, calling Pakistan-mediated discussions “productive and ongoing”.

“We feel good about the prospects of a deal,” she said on Wednesday.

In Tehran, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that exchanges with the US have continued since the end of the talks in Islamabad. Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said “several messages have been exchanged through Pakistan” and that Iranian “positions have been expressed in those exchanges”.

Tensions remain, however.

A US Navy blockade on Iranian ports – which began following the end of the talks – remains in effect in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Central Command claimed it has turned back nine vessels as of Wednesday.

Iran’s military has denounced the blockade as a violation of the April 8 ceasefire. Iran’s Fars News Agency separately reported that a sanctioned Iranian supertanker had crossed the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, though it gave no further details.

Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military command, has also threatened to halt trade in the region if the US does not lift its blockade. He warned that Iran would retaliate by blocking trade through the Red Sea, along with the Gulf and the Sea of Oman.

Sources tell Al Jazeera that Pakistani mediators are hopeful about a breakthrough on Iran’s nuclear programme.

A high-level Pakistani delegation has travelled to Iran to hold talks focused on arranging a fresh round of negotiations between Iran and the United States, a week before their fragile truce is due to expire.

Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir is heading the delegation that arrived in Tehran on Wednesday evening, according to Iranian state media. It said he came with a new message from the US and plans to coordinate a second round of US-Iran talks, after an initial round in Islamabad ended on Sunday without a deal to end the war.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is also joining mediation efforts in Tehran, while Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Saudi Arabia for the first stop in a four-day Gulf tour.

Pakistan’s diplomatic blitz comes as competing US and Iranian sea blockades strain tensions – and the global economy – but amid indications of progress towards a deal to end the war, which has killed 3,000 people in Iran and spiralled across the Middle East.

“The urgency is being driven by the ceasefire expiring on April 22, and Pakistani officials are hoping they can get that extended,” said Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett from Islamabad. “Sharif will try and convince regional partners to also use their leverage to convince the US to participate in new talks with Iran and make sure there is no diplomatic line-crossing.”

Washington ‘feels good’ about potential deal

The latest mediation appears bolstered by optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump, who said the world should brace for an “amazing two days” as the war with Iran is close to over.

Trump also said his negotiators were likely to return to Pakistan, thanks largely to the “great job” Munir was doing to moderate the talks.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later reiterated that additional talks with Iran would likely go forward in Islamabad. “We feel good about the prospects of a deal,” she told reporters on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, the US military said its naval blockade on all Iranian ports was still in effect, with US forces “present, vigilant and ready to ensure compliance”.

The blockade, which Iran’s military slammed as a violation of the ceasefire, turned nine ships away as of Wednesday, according to US Central Command.

The commander of Iran’s joint military command, Ali Abdollahi, threatened to halt trade in the region if the US did not lift its blockade. He also warned Iran would retaliate by blocking trade through the Red Sea along with the Gulf and Sea of Oman.

‘Detractors on all sides’

Mediators in the conflict are pushing for a compromise on three main sticking points – Iran’s nuclear programme, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages.

Iran’s Foreign Minister spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei has said Iran is open to discussing the type and level of its uranium enrichment, but his country “based on its needs, must be able to continue enrichment”, according to Iranian state media.

Sources told Al Jazeera that Pakistani mediators are optimistic about a potential major breakthrough on the nuclear front, which is the reason for Munir’s rare diplomatic trip.

“It looks like there is some agreement in the making, but we’ve been cautioned by sources [close to the mediation effort] that there are detractors on all sides,” said Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid from Doha.

He said the detractors include elements “in Tehran, in Washington, DC, and biggest of them all, according to Pakistani sources, is Israel, which does not want a peace deal and wants a perpetual war in the region”.

The US started a blockade on Iranian ports, but Trump said there is still a chance for Tehran to reach a deal.

President Donald Trump said there is still room for Iran to strike a deal, despite the US blockade of Iranian ports, as Israel intensified its invasion of southern Lebanon.

Iran has accused Washington of “piracy” as thousands rally in Tehran against the move, which targets shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Associated Press news agency reported on Tuesday that diplomatic efforts to revive US-Iran talks are continuing, with Pakistan offering to host a second round of negotiations in Islamabad this week.

Here is what we know:

In Iran

• US blockade and protests: The US measures are now being enforced, prompting Iranian accusations of “piracy” and demonstrations in Tehran against the restrictions on maritime traffic.
• Tehran calls blockade ‘illegal’: Iran’s armed forces condemned the move as unlawful, warning that targeting its ports could put shipping across the Gulf at risk.
• IRGC warns of escalation: A Revolutionary Guard spokesperson said Iran still has “unused capabilities” and could deploy new tactics if the conflict deepens.
• Tehran backs pope: Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf praised Pope Leo XIV for condemning the war, calling his stance “fearless”.
• Russia withdraws nuclear staff: Russia has pulled most of its personnel from Iran’s only nuclear power plant, built with Moscow’s support, according to the head of the country’s atomic energy agency.

War diplomacy

• Qatar urges mediation: Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani urged Iran and the US to engage constructively in mediation efforts.
• Pakistan says truce ‘holding’: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the ceasefire between the US and Iran was “holding”, with efforts ongoing to reach a deal after weekend talks failed.
• Shipping disruption grows: A UN spokesperson said there is “no military solution”, warning that instability in the Strait of Hormuz is worsening global economic fragility. About 20,000 vessels are reported stranded, with supply chains, including fertiliser, under strain.
• Push to include Lebanon: The United Kingdom urged Lebanon’s inclusion in a broader US-Iran ceasefire framework, which currently excludes fighting involving Hezbollah.
• Talks planned with Lebanon despite fighting: Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors will hold talks on Tuesday in Washington, DC, aimed at halting the war.
• Hezbollah rejects negotiations: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem on Monday urged Lebanon to cancel the planned meeting in Washington, reiterating his group’s opposition to any direct engagement with Israel.
• Russia to accept Iran’s uranium: The Kremlin has repeated an offer to accept Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a potential agreement with the US. In comments carried by Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti news agency, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the proposal “was voiced by President [Vladimir] Putin in contacts with both the United States and regional states”.

In the US

• Iran ‘wants a deal’: Trump said Iranian representatives had reached out to pursue a peace agreement after talks in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough. “They’d like to make a deal. Very badly,” he told reporters, without specifying who made contact.
• No apology over pope remarks: Trump said he had “nothing to apologise for” after criticising Pope Leo XIV for calling for an end to the conflict. He described the pope as “weak” on key issues, including Iran.
• Warning over Iranian vessels: Trump said US forces would destroy any Iranian “fast attack ships” approaching the naval blockade now in effect.
• Domestic politics and war powers: Senate Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, are pushing for another vote to curb Trump’s authority to wage war on Iran. Schumer criticised the campaign as an “epic fail”, citing rising US fuel prices, while previous efforts have been blocked by Republicans.
• Arrests of protesters: Police in New York City have arrested about 90 protesters in Manhattan as they stopped traffic to protest against the war on Iran and the US’s arms sales to Israel. Jewish Voice for Peace, the group leading the protest, said those taken into custody included whistleblower Chelsea Manning, actor Hari Nef and New York City Council Member Alexa Aviles.
• Trump rails at pope: Trump has doubled down on his criticism of Pope Leo XIV, saying the pontiff’s opposition to the war in Iran was “wrong” and accusing him of being “weak on crime”.

In Israel

• Israel pushes ‘buffer zone’: Israel’s military is continuing ground operations and air raids across southern Lebanon, bulldozing buildings in border towns such as Naqoura as part of efforts to create a “buffer zone”.
• Hezbollah steps up attacks: Fighters have launched rockets and drones at Israeli troops and vehicles in areas including Bint Jbeil and Biyyada.
• Accusations against Israel: Hezbollah chief Qassem accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of pursuing a “Greater Israel” agenda with US backing.
• Tensions with Italy: Israel summoned Italy’s ambassador after Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani condemned attacks on Beirut as “unacceptable”, following reports of more than 300 deaths.
• The Israeli military said one soldier has been killed and three others have been wounded during battle in southern Lebanon.

In Lebanon

• Israel continues to attack Lebanon: Israel has intensified its invasion of southern Lebanon, as the death toll from Israeli attacks since March 2 rises to at least 2,089.
• An Israeli drone attack has hit a car travelling near southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh, killing at least two people, the National News Agency reported on Tuesday. Our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic say Israeli forces have launched two raids on the towns of Machgharah and Sohmor in the eastern Bekaa Valley.
• Public opinion divided: Lebanese citizens appear split about negotiations, with some expressing fatigue from the war and hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough, while others remain sceptical of Israel’s intentions and doubt any deal will hold.
• Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand confirmed in a statement posted on X that a Canadian national has died in southern Lebanon. The minister did not provide details on the events that led to the Canadian’s death.

Strait of Hormuz and energy crisis

• The Reuters news agency is reporting that a Chinese tanker sanctioned ⁠by Washington has passed through the Strait of Hormuz despite a ⁠US blockade on the waterway. The tanker and its ‌owner, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd, were previously sanctioned by the US for dealing with Iran.
• US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil prices could keep rising until “we get meaningful ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz”.

Trading on Tuesday began with high expectations that the Iran war is inching to a close, fuelling gains across major stock markets and pushing oil back under $100 a barrel.

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Investors remained hopeful for a lasting de-escalation of the conflict, now in its seventh week, as the US and Iran are said to be weighing a second round of talks before a temporary ceasefire agreement expires next week.

The US military on Monday began a blockade of Iranian ports as Washington steps up pressure on Tehran, following weekend ceasefire talks between the two sides that ended without agreement.

Trump also suggested on Monday that the United States is still willing to engage with Tehran.

“I can tell you that we’ve been called by the other side,” he said, without elaborating further.

Oil prices continued to pull back on Tuesday from earlier gains.

Brent crude, the international standard, was down 0.8% at $98.62 per barrel, nearing 8 am CET.

It reached nearly $104 early on Monday amid Iran war concerns and limited progress in weekend ceasefire talks.

Benchmark US crude fell 1.7% early Tuesday to $97.40 a barrel.

The global energy shock stemming from maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil is typically transported, has led to surging fuel prices and threatens to push up inflation in many countries and weigh on economic growth.

Stock markets are hungry for good news

Investors were quick to recover after the dismal first trading day on Monday. Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday morning, tracking Wall Street gains.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was up 2.4%, while South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3% to 6,004.30.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 25,759.75, while the Shanghai Composite climbed 0.6% to 4,010.45.

This comes as China on Tuesday reported worse-than-expected export growth.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded its exports by 2.5% in March year on year, significantly slower than the previous two months as uncertainties rose from the Iran war and its impact on energy prices and global demand.

The March data missed analysts’ estimates and was sharply down from the 21.8% export growth recorded in January and February.

Wall Street rose on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.2%.

Shares in Goldman Sachs fell 1.9% despite the investment bank posting better-than-expected quarterly profits.

In other trading, gold and silver prices rose on Tuesday. Gold was up 0.6% at $4,796.60 (€4,219.62) an ounce, while silver gained 1.8% to $77.05 (€67.80) per ounce.

The US dollar fell to ¥159.08 from ¥159.45. The euro was trading at $1.1766, up from $1.1759.

Relief for global markets comes after Trump says Iranian officials are keen on a deal.

Asia’s main stock markets have surged, and oil prices have declined amid renewed hopes for ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.

The relief for global markets on Tuesday came after US President Donald Trump said overnight that Iranian officials had reached out to his administration and expressed their openness to a deal.

“We’ve been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly,” Trump said in remarks at the White House.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose as much as 2.5 percent on Tuesday, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 3.7 percent.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index climbed about 0.6 percent.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was up about 0.4 percent in the early afternoon, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai was about 0.5 percent higher.

The rally in Asia followed gains on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P 500 finishing up 1 percent overnight.

Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, dipped nearly 1.5 percent, falling below $98 a barrel.

The positive turn for markets came despite the US following through on its threat to impose a naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that analysts warn is likely to exacerbate the energy shortage that is roiling the global economy.

Brent had surged above $103 per barrel after Trump on Sunday threatened to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies.

The US military later clarified that the blockade would only apply to vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, in an apparent scaling back of Trump’s threat to fully close the waterway.

Iran has effectively halted shipping through the strait since the start of the war on February 28, throwing the global energy market into a tailspin.

Only 21 vessels transited the strait on Sunday, according to maritime intelligence provider Windward, compared with roughly 130 daily transits before the start of the conflict.

Islamabad, Pakistan – More than 12 hours of face-to-face negotiations between the United States and Iran ended without agreement in Islamabad on Sunday, leaving a fragile two-week ceasefire as the only barrier between diplomacy and a return to war.

Pakistan, which spent weeks positioning itself as a mediator and succeeded in bringing both sides into the same room, emerged with its role intact. But officials acknowledge the harder phase now begins — getting American and Iranian negotiators back into talks before their differences explode into full-fledged war again.

“Pakistan has been and will continue to play its role to facilitate engagements and dialogue between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America in the days to come,” Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said in a statement after the conclusion of the talks.

The talks, the highest-level direct engagement between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, faltered over differences surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme.

“The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon,” said US Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

However, Vance left a narrow opening for the resumption of talks.

“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it,” Vance said, tapping the podium for emphasis, before ending his brief remarks, which lasted for less than five minutes.

Pakistani and Iranian sources confirmed that the Iranian delegation met senior Pakistani officials later on Sunday before departing for Tehran, though details of those discussions remain unclear.

What is clear is that Pakistan isn’t giving up yet.

Washington’s red lines

US officials said that Iran had entered negotiations misreading its leverage, believing it held advantages that, in Washington’s assessment, it did not.

According to these officials, Vance spent much of his time during the talks correcting what they described as Iranian misperceptions about the US position — asserting that no deal would be possible without a full commitment on the nuclear issue.

Officials also suggested that Trump’s subsequent announcement of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was not an impulsive reaction, but a pre-planned step aimed at removing the waterway as an Iranian bargaining tool and forcing the nuclear issue back to the centre of any future talks.

But the US officials, speaking on background, also acknowledged that the gulf in the positions between Washington and Tehran that they failed to bridge extended to issues beyond Iran’s nuclear programme.

In essence, they said, the two sides failed to agree on six key points: ending all uranium enrichment; dismantling major enrichment facilities; removing Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium; accepting a broader regional security framework involving US allies; ending funding for groups Washington designates as “terrorist” organisations, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.

Hours after the talks ended, Trump acknowledged partial progress, but underscored the central impasse.

“The meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not,” he wrote on Truth Social.

“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said. “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”

Iran has effectively controlled access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies pass, since the US-Israeli attacks began on February 28.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has imposed what analysts describe as a de facto toll system, requiring vessels to secure clearance codes and transit under escort through a controlled corridor.

The disruption has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel at times, unsettling global markets and placing sustained pressure on energy-importing countries across Asia and Europe.

Tehran has framed its control of the strait as both a security measure and a key negotiating lever, one it has shown little willingness to relinquish without a broader settlement.

Tehran’s point of view

Iran’s account of the breakdown differed sharply.

In a post on X early on April 13, after returning to Tehran, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country had engaged in “good faith”, only to face shifting demands.

“When just inches away from an Islamabad MoU, we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade,” he wrote. “Zero lessons learned. Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.”

The reference to an “Islamabad MoU”, a memorandum of understanding, was the clearest public signal yet that the two sides had come closer to a formal agreement than either government had previously acknowledged.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the country’s delegation, said his team had proposed “forward-looking initiatives”, but failed to secure trust.

“Due to the experiences of the two previous wars, we have no trust in the opposing side,” he wrote on Sunday.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also pointed to partial progress but unresolved differences.

“On some issues we actually reached mutual understanding, but there was a gap over two or three important issues and ultimately the talks didn’t result in an agreement,” he said.

Tehran’s key demands, including an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, the release of $6bn in frozen assets, guarantees on its nuclear programme and the right to charge vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, remained unmet.

Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, however, offered a more measured view — suggesting that Tehran was not closing the window on talks.

“The Islamabad Talks is not an event but a process,” he wrote in his message on X on Sunday. “The Islamabad Talks laid the foundation for a diplomatic process that, if trust and will are strengthened, can create a sustainable framework for the interests of all parties.”

Pakistan’s balancing act

For Pakistan, analysts say, the outcome represents a setback but not a failure.

Officials were careful to describe the talks as “an important opening step in a continuing diplomatic process”, stressing that issues of such complexity cannot be resolved in a single round.

The emphasis, they said, was on keeping the channel open.

Muhammad Obaidullah, a former Pakistan Navy commodore who has served in Iran as a diplomat, said expectations of a breakthrough were always unrealistic.

“The mere fact of bringing both parties face to face is a significant diplomatic achievement in itself,” he told Al Jazeera. “The diplomacy is not dead.”

Ishtiaq Ahmad, professor emeritus of international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad, went further.

“The talks did not collapse; they concluded without agreement but with a defined US offer on the table and the channel still intact,” he said.

“Pakistan’s role was to move the crisis from escalation to structured engagement, which it achieved. The absence of convergence reflects structural differences between the US and Iran, not a failure of mediation.”

Both Trump and Iranian officials have praised Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir for their efforts to secure the ceasefire, and for hosting the talks in Islamabad. That, say analysts, suggests that they remain open to further Pakistan-brokered negotiations.

Sahar Baloch, a Germany-based scholar of Iran, said that trust remains Pakistan’s most valuable asset.

“The real test of credibility is not preventing breakdowns, but remaining relevant after them,” she said.

Fragile ceasefire

The immediate threat to Pakistan’s role comes from the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz and in Lebanon.

Iran has already warned that continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon could render negotiations meaningless. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has framed such attacks as a direct challenge to the ceasefire.

Trump’s blockade announcement now adds pressure from a second front.

Ahmad, a former Pakistan chair at Oxford University, warned that a collapse of the truce would sharply narrow diplomatic options.

“If the ceasefire collapses, the immediate consequence is the loss of the diplomatic window,” he said. “A second round becomes far more difficult because both sides would return to negotiating under active escalation, where positions tend to harden rather than converge.”

Obaidullah drew a historical parallel with the US naval quarantine of Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis. What if China were to use its own ships to import Iranian oil? Would the US attack them?

“The world will again be watching who blinks first,” Obaidullah said. “However, it may turn into a far greater conflict if neither side does.”

The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 brought the US and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war, after Washington discovered Moscow had installed nuclear missiles on Cuban soil, within striking distance of the American mainland.

The US blocked the Soviets from providing more equipment to Cuba, and eventually, a diplomatic settlement was reached, with the Soviets agreeing to withdraw the missiles in exchange for a US pledge not to invade Cuba.

Baloch, the Berlin-based scholar, agreed that the situation remains volatile.

“The ceasefire risks becoming more symbolic than substantive,” she said. “But paradoxically, escalation can sometimes force a return to talks, even if under more urgent and less favourable conditions.”

What is the road ahead?

Pakistan’s room for manoeuvring is also shaped by its economic fragility.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has driven up energy prices, compounding pressures on an economy already under strain before the conflict.

Ahmad said this creates both urgency and limits.

“Economic exposure, especially to energy shocks and external financing, creates urgency for Pakistan to prevent a prolonged conflict,” he said.

“But it also reinforces a constraint: Pakistan cannot afford escalation with either side. Its leverage is not coercive; it is positional. It comes from being the only channel acceptable to both sides, not from the ability to impose outcomes,” Ahmad said.

Eight days remain until the end of the initial two-week truce, a window Pakistani officials said privately represents a genuine opportunity for further technical and political alignment, if both sides choose to use it.

Ahmad suggested that any breakthrough would depend on creating a sequence of steps acceptable to both sides.

“The US is asking for early nuclear commitments; Iran is asking for guarantees and relief first,” he said.

Pakistan’s role, he added, would be to help “structure this sequencing, keep both sides engaged, and prevent breakdown at each stage”.

Islamabad won’t be the one drafting a deal itself, he emphasised, noting, “At this point, maintaining the channel is as important as the substance of the deal itself.”