US-Israel war on Iran

What are US proposals to end war, and will Iran agree to them? | US-Israel war on Iran News

Iran said on Wednesday that it was reviewing a United States peace proposal that sources said would formally end the war, while leaving unresolved the key US demands that Iran suspend its nuclear programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson quoted by Iran’s ISNA news agency said on Wednesday that Tehran would convey its response. US President Donald Trump said he believed Iran wanted an agreement.

“They want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday.

A day before, Trump paused “Project Freedom” to reopen the blockaded strait, citing progress in peace talks. The de facto blockade of the waterway threatens to cause a global recession. Iran has been pressing to keep Hormuz under its control, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply passes.

Here is more about the US proposal to end the war, and how experts think Iran would respond.

What is the latest US proposal to end the Iran war?

US media outlet Axios said the two sides were “getting close” to an agreement on a 14-point document. Under the memorandum, Iran would agree not to develop a nuclear weapon and halt enrichment of uranium for at least 12 years, it said.

The US would lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and both sides, which have imposed competing blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, would reopen the critical waterway within 30 days of signing.

Iran has been under US sanctions for decades, and the lifting of some sanctions under the 2015 nuclear agreement was reversed after Trump walked out of the landmark deal signed under his predecessor, President Barack Obama. Billions of dollars of Iranian assets remain frozen in foreign banks due to the sanctions.

It is unclear how this memorandum differs from a 14-point plan proposed by Iran last week.

The Reuters news agency reported on Thursday, citing a source briefed on the mediation, that the US negotiations were being led by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. If both sides agreed on the preliminary deal, that would start the clock on 30 days of detailed negotiations to reach a full agreement.

The full agreement would end the competing US and Iranian blockades on the strait, lift US sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds. It would also include certain curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme, which was allowed by the United Nations nuclear watchdog.

While the sources said the memorandum would not initially require concessions from either side, they did not mention several key demands Washington has made in the past, which Iran has rejected, such as curbs on Iran’s missile programme and an end to its support for armed proxy groups in the Middle East.

The sources also made no mention of Iran’s existing stockpile of more than 400kg (900lb) of near-weapons-grade uranium.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s ally, said on Wednesday the two leaders agreed that all enriched uranium must be removed from Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear bomb.

The US and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear sites last June during the 12-day war, after which Trump claimed that Tehran’s nuclear programme was obliterated. A significant portion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains buried inside the bombed nuclear sites.

Tehran denies wanting to acquire a nuclear weapon. It insists its programme is for civilian purposes as allowed within its position as a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty.

ISFAHAN, IRAN - MARCH 30: A worker walks inside of an uranium conversion facility March 30, 2005 just outside the city of Isfahan, about 254 miles (410 kilometers), south of capital Tehran, Iran. The cities of Isfahan and Natanz in central Iran are home to the heart of Iran's nuclear program. The facility in Isfahan makes hexaflouride gas, which is then enriched by feeding it into centrifuges at a facility in Natanz, Iran. Iran's President Mohammad Khatami and the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation Gholamreza Aghazadeh is scheduled to visit the facilities. (Photo by Getty Images)
A worker walks inside of an uranium conversion facility on March 30, 2005 just outside the city of Isfahan, about 254 miles (410 kilometers), south of capital Tehran, Iran. President wants Iran to end its nuclear programme [File: Getty Images]

Could Iran agree to this proposal?

Iran has yet to formally respond to the latest US proposal. However, Iranian leaders have pushed back against it.

Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaee, a spokesperson for the parliament’s powerful foreign policy and national security committee, described the text as “more of an American wish-list than a reality”.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf appeared to mock reports that the two sides were close, writing on social media in English that “Operation Trust Me Bro failed.”

Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar Atas, reporting from Tehran, said on Thursday that Iran is still reviewing the US proposal, after which a response is expected to be given to the Pakistani mediators later today.

The Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Thursday that it welcomes the news of a potential agreement between Iran and the US, adding that it will not disclose additional information at this stage.

“As mediators, we will not lose the trust of both parties by revealing details,” it said in a statement quoted by Al Jazeera Arabic.

Atas said, “Iranians are saying that, at this stage, they’re not negotiating their nuclear programme; it’s only about ending the war on all fronts.”

He added that Tehran wants direct guarantees from the UN Security Council, a lifting of sanctions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“If that is achieved, in a second phase, they’re ready to discuss their nuclear programme.”

Al Jazeera’s Almigdad Alruhaid reported from Tehran on Tuesday that Iran has set “a very firm red line” on the nuclear file. “The nuclear enrichment programme is non-negotiable,” he said.

According to former US Assistant Secretary of State Mark Kimmitt, Trump’s reported demand that Iran halt all uranium enrichment is unrealistic and unlikely to be accepted by Tehran.

“If there is anything the Iranians are going to insist upon in these negotiations, it is their right to enrich uranium to the 3.67 percent level, which is allowed under nuclear non-proliferation treaties,” he told Al Jazeera.

Kimmitt added that even the 2015 nuclear deal permitted Iran to continue enrichment. Iran boosted its enrichment up to 60 percent after Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, during his first term.

However, Kimmitt postulated that Trump might want Iran’s existing stockpile of enriched uranium outside of Iran. He added that Iran might either agree to move the enriched uranium outside the country or dilute it down to a non-enriched state.

Alruhaid, the Al Jazeera correspondent, however, said Iran is resisting handing over its existing stockpile of enriched uranium.

Iran is believed to have about 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent. A 90 percent threshold of enriched uranium is needed to produce a nuclear weapon.

Al Jazeera’s Alruhaid said “the sovereignty on the Strait of Hormuz is becoming one of the main issues on the negotiating table.

“We are seeing the Iranians are tightening their control. They are setting new protocol, new mechanism for controlling that strategic chokepoint for each vessel that is to pass through.”

The US allies in the Gulf, who faced the brunt of Iranian retaliatory strikes, have been pushing for the restoration of navigation in the strait without any conditions. Iran carried out attacks on the Gulf nations, mainly targeting US military assets, after the US and Israel launched attacks on it on February 28.

Trump has repeatedly played up the prospect of an agreement that would end the war, so far without success. The two sides remain at odds over a variety of difficult issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

A Pakistani source and another source briefed on the mediation told Reuters that an agreement was close on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the conflict, the agency reported on Thursday.

This agreement would kick off discussions to unblock shipping through the strait, lift US sanctions on Iran and set curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme, the sources said.

Al Jazeera, however, could not confirm the veracity of the reports.

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Police arrest protester after five-days atop Washington bridge | US-Israel war on Iran

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Police have arrested an anti-war protester after he ended a five-day sit-in atop Washington’s Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge. Guido Reichstadter, opposed to the war on Iran, started the protest to rally others into non-violent opposition.

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What are China’s surprise gains in the war on Iran? | US-Israel war on Iran

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Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Beijing, seeking support on a deal with the US, while US President Trump will be in China next week, and Iran will be on the agenda.

Why is everyone turning to China? What role is Beijing playing in the US-Israel led war on Iran?

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‘Operation Epic Fury’ has ended: Is the Iran war over? | US-Israel war on Iran News

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Tuesday that Operation Epic Fury – the US-Israeli strikes on Iran which commenced on February 28 and prompted a regional conflict – had concluded as its objectives had been achieved. Washington now prefers “the path of peace”, Rubio said.

On the same day, US President Donald Trump announced that the US military operation to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz – “Project Freedom”, which was launched the day before – had been paused.

So, does this mean the US-Israel war on Iran is over?

What did Rubio say about Operation Epic Fury?

In a media briefing at the White House on Tuesday, Rubio told reporters that Operation Epic Fury was over.

“The Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation,” Rubio said.

“We’re not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace. What the president would prefer is a deal,” he said, referring to Pakistan’s efforts to arrange direct talks between Iran and the US.

The first round of these, in Islamabad last month, ended without a resolution. Both sides have submitted new proposals since then.

“The on-again, off-again talks with Iran, alongside Trump’s abrupt about turn on ‘Operation Freedom’ to guide vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz has created unwelcome frenzy in the Gulf,” Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security at UK-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera.

“It also reflects the highly fraught and almost frantic diplomatic backchannelling aimed to extract deep concessions from Tehran on the nuclear issue that will lock in commitments that exceed previous conditions, and which will convince the US to lift the blockade on Iranian ports and unlock sanctions relief – thereby effectively ending the war.”

Ozcelik explained that Iran, on the other hand, wants guarantees that this will be the end of the war, rather than just a pause.

What did Trump say about Project Freedom?

The same day, Trump told reporters that Project Freedom had been paused “based on the request” of Pakistan and other countries, and the “fact that Great Progress has been made towards a Complete and Final Agreement” with representatives of Iran.

Project Freedom was the US forces’ operation to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz that Trump announced the day before. It had appeared to signal a direct challenge to Iran’s closure of the strategic waterway, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped in peacetime. Iran’s threats to attack ships in the strait have blockaded it since the US-Israel attacks on Iran began. Then, the US announcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports added to the standoff around the strait.

After Trump announced Project Freedom, Iran said ships trying to use the strait without permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be fired on, igniting fears of a return to war. His announcement triggered a war of words between the US and Iran, with claims and counterclaims about strikes continuing throughout the day.

First, Iran’s Fars agency claimed it had hit a US warship with drones after it ignored orders to turn back from the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) denied a US ship had been struck, however, and instead claimed to have sunk at least six IRGC vessels. Iran denied that. Tehran then published a new map extending its claimed area of control over the strait into UAE waters, raising fears of a new regional confrontation.

The UAE accused Iran of launching strikes on its Fujairah port, the site of an important oil pipeline, which sparked a fire in an oil refinery.

On Tuesday, the US operation had been stopped, according to Trump.

“We have mutually agreed that, while the [US] Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Iran has not immediately responded to this.

Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor in Middle East and Central Asian politics at Australia’s Deakin University, told Al Jazeera that while it is difficult to determine exactly why Trump has paused Project Freedom, the pause comes against the backdrop of growing antiwar public opinion in the US.

“At the same time, Trump may be losing patience with the war; he says he has time to drag this out,” Akbarzadeh said.

“But in reality, Trump has a short attention span and needs to secure a win – soon. Pausing Project Freedom allows diplomacy to pick up pace, bringing US and Iran closer to a deal that Trump would label as a win.”

Is this the end of the war on Iran?

Not exactly. Akbarzadeh said pausing Project Freedom could serve as “the beginning of the end for the war”.

“We know that the Iranians are desperate for an end, so there is little chance of them resuming attacks on US Navy if Trump sends explicit signals that diplomacy has a green light,” he said.

However, he added, “The problem is that we have been here before. Earlier opportunities were squandered because Israel insisted that the US could get a better deal or because Trump misread the situation and expected the military option to grant him more concessions.”

What happens next?

It is difficult to predict this, but neither side appears to want a return to full-scale war, so both are likely to prioritise a diplomatic way out, Akbarzadeh said.

Still, “neither can afford to be seen as the loser,” he added. “They feel their public image needs to be preserved for their own respective domestic audience. This complicates negotiations and reaching a deal.”

Ozcelik said what happens next “will be determined by what the fractured leadership in Tehran commits to on the nuclear file.

“While it has rejected that talks involve curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme, this type of posturing has aimed to assuage domestic, hard-line and Iranian nationalists who are rattled by the US-Israel strikes and see nuclear issues from a nationalist, sovereign rights perspective.”

She predicted that the United Nations may soon issue a formal condemnation of Iran for unilaterally blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

“But the real pressure, mounting by the day, is the economic one – that shutting the strait is imposing punishing costs on Iran’s economic recovery prospects,” she said.

“Despite rhetoric on resilience and survival, the remaining Iranian leadership is undeniably concerned about the costs of the war. The possibility of renewed military strikes against Iranian critical infrastructure and the destabilising impacts these would inevitably have might be finally forcing Tehran’s hand,” Ozcelik concluded.

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US must not insult IRGC during the World Cup: Iran’s football chief | World Cup 2026 News

Iran’s football chief says the country’s preparations for the World Cup remain on track, but its participation will depend on a guarantee of respect for the Iranian armed forces by tournament cohosts the United States.

The Iranian Football Federation (FFIRI) will seek reassurance from FIFA that the US will not insult the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the World Cup, FFIRI President Mehdi Taj said on Tuesday.

“[The] Americans, if they guarantee not to insult our military institutions and the IRGC, we’ll go,” Taj told state broadcaster IRIB.

“If they give such a guarantee that an incident like Canada doesn’t happen and they definitely assure it, we will go,” he added.

Taj was referring to an incident that took place last week, when an FFIRI delegation turned back at Toronto’s main airport, citing their treatment by Canadian immigration, and missed a pre-World Cup FIFA gathering in Vancouver.

The delegation members, including Taj, turned back ⁠⁠⁠⁠upon arrival at Toronto’s Pearson airport despite holding valid visas, citing what was described as the “unacceptable behaviour of immigration officials”.

“They [delegation] returned to Turkiye on the first available flight due to the unacceptable behaviour of immigration officials at the airport and the insult to one of the most honourable organs of the Iranian nation’s armed forces,” the FFIRI said in a statement following the incident.

In 2024, Canada listed Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organisation, and statements from the Canadian government indicated that Taj was denied entry due to his alleged ties with the IRGC.

“IRGC officials are inadmissible to Canada and have no place in our country,” the Canadian government said.

The US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28.

At least 3,468 people have been killed in US-Israeli attacks, according to Iran’s Ministry of Health. More than 26,500 people have been injured, including at least 4,000 women and 1,621 children.

Iranian forces retaliated, launching attacks on Middle East countries where US troops are deployed, as well as Israel.

‘Our host is FIFA, not Mr Trump’

Taj, who was speaking in Tehran, will meet FIFA President Gianni Infantino and Secretary-General Mattias Grafstrom at the organisation’s headquarters in Zurich this month.

During the meeting, Taj said he will seek guarantees that the Iranian team and accompanying officials would not face entry restrictions or “disrespect”, particularly towards Iran’s state institutions.

“We need a guarantee there, for our trip, that they have no right to insult the symbols of our system – especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” he said.

“This is something they must pay serious attention to. If there is such a guarantee and the responsibility is clearly assumed, then an incident like what ⁠⁠happened in Canada will not happen again.”

The Iranian team is going full-speed ahead with its preparations for the World Cup, and football officials have outlined the team’s training and preparations for the tournament, which include camps at home and in neighbouring Turkiye before travelling to the US.

The squad will depart for Turkiye on Monday for their final leg of preparations before travelling to the US in June.

Team Melli will kick off their ‌‌‌‌campaign ‌‌‌‌against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15, before taking on Belgium at the same stadium on June 21 and facing Egypt in their final group match in Seattle on June 26.

Taj insisted Iran had earned the right to play in the World Cup as one of the first teams to have qualified for the tournament.

“We are going to the World Cup because we qualified,” the Iranian official said. “Our host is FIFA, not Mr Trump or America.”

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Iran’s Araghchi holds talks with China’s Wang Yi in Beijing | US-Israel war on Iran News

Iran’s foreign minister meets his Chinese counterpart one week before President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is holding talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing amid tensions with the United States in the Strait of Hormuz.

Araghchi’s one-day trip on Wednesday comes a week before US President Donald Trump’s scheduled ⁠visit to Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping on May 14 and 15.

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China’s official Xinhua news agency reported the meeting between Araghchi and Wang had begun, without providing further details.

Araghchi’s visit to Beijing marks the first time he has travelled to China, a close ally of Tehran, since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28. Araghchi had spoken with Wang by telephone at least three times following the start of the war.

Earlier in Washington, DC, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed hope that Beijing would reiterate to Tehran the need to release its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran effectively closed the strait, through which major oil and gas supplies passed, after the war began, sending prices of fuel and fertiliser skyrocketing and rattling the global economy.

Following a ceasefire in April, the US imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports in a bid to compel Tehran to agree to Washington’s terms in peace talks.

Al Jazeera’s Katrina Yu, reporting from Beijing, said two things will be front and centre on the agenda of Araghchi and Wang’s meeting – maintaining the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

“We know that China has been very critical of the US’s naval blockade on Iranian ports, calling it dangerous. But increasingly, Beijing has also been critical of Iran’s decision to continually close that vital chokepoint,” Yu said.

Wang is expected to speak to Araghchi about what kind of support China can continue to offer Iran if it continues to close the strait.

“Iran will need Chinese backing, for example, at the United Nations, to continue to block any action that would put any additional sanctions on Iran because of its closure of the strait,” Yu said.

“Reportedly, the Iranian foreign minister is looking for clarity from Beijing as to what it will put on the table when Xi meets with Trump, and whether Beijing will be making any concessions to Washington that could make Tehran nervous.”

China, in return, “wants its own assurances that Iran won’t act in any escalatory way or any dramatic fashion in the lead up to that very important meeting”, she added.

Araghchi and Wang’s meeting came as Trump announced a pause on a US military operation to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.

The effort, which began on Monday, ratcheted up tensions, with the US military claiming it sank several Iranian boats that attempted to interfere in the operation. The United Arab Emirates also reported coming under missile and drone attacks from Iran, with one assault sparking a fire at an oil refinery. Tehran denies the launching the attacks.

Trump said on Truth Social the pause was based “on the request of Pakistan and other Countries” and because “Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran”.

Pakistan has been leading efforts for a peace deal between Iran and the US.

The two sides held direct talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12, but the negotiations ended without an agreement. Key sticking points include US demands for Iran to halt all nuclear enrichment and Tehran’s wish to continue to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz.

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US pauses plan to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran

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US president Donald Trump has said that the US military operation “Project Freedom” guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz will be paused for a short period. He cited a request from Pakistan and progress towards a final deal with Iran.

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US Army says ‘Project Freedom’ in blockaded Hormuz has ‘just begun’ | US-Israel war on Iran News

A military operation titled “Project Freedom” has been launched by the US Navy to secure a safe passage of commercial vessels through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, a spokesperson for the United States military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) told Al Jazeera on Tuesday.

The Strait of Hormuz has been at the centre of the US-Israeli war on Iran that began on February 28, triggering disruptions that have pushed up commodity prices around the world.

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Iran has effectively sealed off the strait by threatening to deploy mines, drones, missiles and fast-attack craft. The US has countered by blockading Iranian ports and mounting escorted transits for commercial vessels.

The US military spokesperson said that ship owners and insurance companies have responded positively to the operation, which has “just begun” and is aimed at ensuring commercial ships can pass through the strait safely to benefit global and regional economies.

Later on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a news conference in Washington, DC, that 10 civilian sailors have died due to the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the US Navy has destroyed seven Iranian fast boats in the waterway.

Rubio said the US will continue to clear a passageway through the strait to restore freedom of navigation.

Operation ‘defensive in nature’

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation has the goal of reopening the strait and allowing the passage of thousands of stranded commercial vessels.

“Project Freedom is defensive in nature, focused in scope, temporary in duration [and] with one mission: protecting innocent commercial shipping from Iranian aggression,” Hegseth said during a briefing on Tuesday at the Pentagon.

He said that as part of Project Freedom, US forces would not need to enter Iranian waters or airspace, adding that Iran can no longer be allowed to prevent international commerce.

“Iran … cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from an international waterway,” Hegseth said, and added that two US commercial vessels, along with the country’s warships, have already traversed the strait.

“They said they control the strait – they do not,” the secretary said.

Iran denied any crossings had taken place, though shipping company Maersk said the Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged ship, exited the Gulf under a US military escort on Monday.

Several merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or fires on Monday, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) claimed to have come under an Iranian attack, with an oil port targeted on Monday. On Tuesday, Iran’s army denied any attack on the UAE in recent days.

Iran did confirm firing warning shots at a US warship approaching the strait, forcing it to turn back.

Alexandru Hudisteanu, a military and diplomatic analyst, has told Al Jazeera that the US operation to force open the Strait of Hormuz considerably increased the risk of miscalculation from both sides, especially Iran.

He said that by pushing two ships through the strait yesterday, the US “trapped Iran in an escalation situation”.

After issuing a new map of the Strait of Hormuz with an expanded Iranian area of control, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned vessels on Tuesday to stick to the corridors it had set or face a “decisive response”.

US President Donald Trump said Iran’s military had been reduced to firing “peashooters” and Tehran wanted peace, despite public sabre-rattling.

“They play games, but let me just tell you, they want to make a deal,” the US president told reporters in the Oval Office.

On Tuesday, Air Force General Dan Caine, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that there are more than 1,500 vessels with about 22,500 crew trapped inside the Gulf, but that Iranian attacks against US forces fell “below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point”.

Asked what Iran would need to do to violate the ceasefire, Trump said: “They know what not to do.”

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Trump pauses US operation in Strait of Hormuz in push for deal with Iran | US-Israel war on Iran News

United States President Donald Trump has said that the US military operation to move stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz has been paused temporarily.

Trump made the announcement on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday.

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He said the decision was made “based on the request” of Pakistan and other countries and the “fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement” with representatives of Iran.

“We have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” he wrote.

There was no immediate comment from Iran.

Trump’s announcement came as tensions escalated in the Gulf, with the US military saying it destroyed several Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as cruise missiles and drones. The United Arab Emirates said its air defences dealt with missile and drone attacks from Iran for a second day, while another commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz reported being hit by an “unknown projectile”.

For its part, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a new map of the strait, with an expanded area of Iranian control, and warned vessels on Tuesday to stick to the corridors it has set or face a “decisive response”.

In Washington, DC, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the US has completed its offensive operations against Iran, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”, and “there’s no shooting unless we’re shot at first”.

But Iran must “pay a price” for its efforts to control the strait, he said.

“The Straits of Hormuz do not belong to Iran. They don’t have a right to shut it down and blow up ships and lay mines,” Rubio said.

“Under no circumstances can we live in a world where we accept, ‘OK, this is normal – you have to coordinate with Iran. You have to pay them a toll in order to go through the Straits of Hormuz’. Not only is that unacceptable in the straits, you’re creating a precedent that could be repeated in multiple other places around the world.”

The maritime chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies normally pass, has been effectively sealed by Iran since the US and Israel launched their war on the country on February 28.

Following a ceasefire in April, the US imposed its own blockade on Iranian ports in a bid to compel Tehran to agree to Washington’s terms in peace talks mediated by Pakistan, including reopening the key waterway and halting all nuclear enrichment.

The closure of the strait has disrupted global trade, causing oil and fertiliser prices to soar and prompting fears of a global recession and a food emergency.

Earlier on Tuesday, Trump told reporters at the White House that the US’s military and economic action was forcing Tehran to the negotiating table despite its defiant public stance.

“Iran wants to make a deal. What I don’t like about Iran is they’ll talk to me with such great respect, and then they’ll go on television. They’ll say, ‘We did not speak to the president’,” he said. “So they play games. But let me just tell you, they want to make a deal. And who wouldn’t? When your military is totally gone, we could do anything we want to them.”

Trump, who is facing mounting pressure at home as petrol prices rise ahead of crucial midterm elections, went on to say that Iran’s military had ‌been reduced to firing “peashooters”.

When asked what Iran would need to do to violate the ceasefire, Trump said: “They know what not ⁠to do.”

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, said that the renewed violence in the Strait of Hormuz does not constitute a breach of the four-week-old truce.

“American forces won’t need to enter Iranian waters. It’s not necessary. We’re not looking for a fight. But Iran cannot be allowed to block innocent countries and their goods from international waterways,” he said at the Pentagon.

“Right now, the ceasefire certainly holds, but we’re going to be watching very, very closely,” he added.

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Video: Trump says Iran should ‘wave the white flag’ | Donald Trump

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US President Donald Trump said Iran should ‘wave the white flag of surrender’ in the war, and accused Iran’s leaders of playing games in negotiations. He also said higher oil prices are a ‘small price to pay’ to keep Iran from having a nuclear weapon.

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Iran’s judiciary vows action against ‘enemy’s mercenaries’ amid executions | US-Israel war on Iran News

Tehran, Iran – Iran’s judiciary has promised to continue taking “decisive” action against people it accuses of working for foreign interests as it reports more executions and asset seizures.

Judiciary and security authorities said they will “act decisively against the enemies’ mercenaries without leniency until the very last one”, according to a state television report aired late on Monday.

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The report came hours after judicial authorities executed three men who were arrested in the northeastern city of Mashhad during nationwide protests in January, which top officials have called a “coup” attempt led by the United States and Israel.

State media aired what it presented as confessions by the men, who were labelled “agents” of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad and “leaders of riots” by the authorities. The report said the men acted against the government by using knives and swords against paramilitary Basij forces and damaging public property.

An increasing number of prisoners have been hanged over recent weeks, particularly since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28. The executions are connected to the antiestablishment protests, during which thousands of people were killed amid a state-imposed internet shutdown.

In Isfahan last week, 21-year-old Sasan Azadvar was executed for “cooperation with the enemy” for acts that included, according to the judiciary, “attacking a minibus carrying security forces with stones and a club and breaking windows of public buses and private vehicles”.

The authorities maintained that while the judicial process has been significantly speeded up for those arrested in connection with the protests, the proceedings remain legal and executions are carried out after being greenlit by Supreme Court judges.

Foreign-based human rights organisations and opponents of Iran’s government have said prisoners are not given fair trials and their families are pressured into remaining silent about arrests and executions, charges Iranian authorities reject.

A number of prisoners have also been executed after being convicted of espionage for Israel and other national security charges. Security offences can lead to a conviction of moharebeh, or “waging war against God”, and other sentences that carry the death penalty.

Earlier this week, two men were hanged for allegedly sending images of military facilities to the Mossad, trying to recruit others for sabotage activities and calling security authorities with fabricated leads to divert them.

Multiple members of the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a foreign-based group considered a “terrorist” outfit by Iranian authorities, have also been executed over recent weeks.

Foreign-based human rights organisations reported that Iranian authorities have in 2025 and 2026 carried out the largest number of hangings since 1989 when political dissidents and MEK members received death sentences in large numbers.

A report by Iran Human Rights and Together Against the Death Penalty last month said at least 1,639 executions were recorded in 2025, which was 68 percent higher than the year before.

The United Nations confirmed at the end of April that since the start of this year’s war, at least 21 people have been executed and more than 4,000 arrested on national security-related charges. Iranian authorities have not commented on the figures.

Economic measures

Iranian authorities have also confiscated the private assets of Iranians inside and outside the country in response to perceived antiestablishment activities.

The latest such move was announced on Tuesday morning when the judiciary announced that authorities in Semnan province, located east of Tehran, had seized the assets of 22 “traitors to the nation and people who are linked with the Zionist regime [Israel] and hostile countries”.

During the naval blockade imposed by the US, which has exacerbated the already dire economic conditions in Iran, authorities have also warned that they will act against any disruptive measures, such as hoarding goods, and have threatened prison time of up to 20 years, lashings and fines for anyone convicted.

Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei also warned that those hoarding, price gouging or selling expired goods will be met with “decisive” legal action.

Prices surged this week across the country, especially for food, medicine, cars and electronic devices. And there are potentially challenging times ahead with little sign of a lasting resolution to the conflict with the US and Israel despite an ongoing ceasefire.

“The current price levels are unacceptable. The price increases are due to the war tumult and sanctions,” Central Bank of Iran chief Abdolnasser Hemmati said on Tuesday. “But the people should not be worried because their resistance is working and, God willing, victory will be achieved soon.”

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Iran’s football team shows World Cup readiness with social media posts | World Cup 2026 News

Videos from a tournament kit reveal photo shoot and images from training sessions highlighting Team Melli’s preparations.

Iran’s preparations for the FIFA World Cup appear to be on track, as social media posts from the team’s official account hint at an upcoming tournament kit reveal and show the squad training at an undisclosed location.

Videos posted by Team Melli’s Instagram account on Monday showed players taking part in a photo shoot for what appears to be Iran’s home kit for the World Cup.

Iran are in Group G of the World Cup and will play all their games in the United States, which is cohosting the tournament with Canada and Mexico.

Several members of Iran’s squad, including first-choice goalkeeper Alireza Safar Beiranvand and winger Milad Mohammadi, were shown wearing a new kit in a series of social media posts.

The Team Melli account also posted photos from training sessions, which have been held in Iran before the squad travels to Turkiye for three friendly matches before the World Cup.

The Asian giants’ participation in the tournament became uncertain after the US and Israel launched a war on Iran on February 28, with Iranian officials questioning the US’s role as host and President Donald Trump suggesting Team Melli’s players may not be safe if they travel to his country for the championship.

However, recent statements by FIFA president Gianni Infantino and Iranian football officials have reaffirmed the country’s participation in the World Cup.

Infantino confirmed that Iran will play its games in the US in his opening remarks at the FIFA ⁠⁠Congress in Canada on Thursday.

“Let me start at the outset. Of course, Iran will be participating at the FIFA ⁠⁠World Cup 2026. And of course Iran will play in the United States of America,” Infantino said.

Trump later said he was “OK” with Iran playing in the country.

“If Gianni said it, I’m OK,” Trump told reporters ‌‌at the White House. “You know what? Let ‌‌them ‌‌play.”

Football officials in Iran have outlined the team’s training and preparations for the tournament, which include camps at home and in neighbouring Turkiye before travelling to the US.

“The first phase of the preparation period will end with an intra-team game on Wednesday,” assistant coach Saeed Alhoei told Iranian sport news outlet Varzesh3.

The game will be held at a stadium, and the players will wear official match kits, with an international referee and video assistant referee technology (VAR) to simulate tournament-like conditions.

Alhoei said the squad will depart for Turkiye on Monday for their final leg of preparations before travelling to the US in June.

Team Melli will kick off their ‌‌campaign ‌‌against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15 before taking on Belgium at the same stadium on June 21.

“We will have three friendly matches, two of which will probably be against [local] club teams and behind closed doors, and the third against an African team,” Alhoei said. “It is a quality team that can be a good simulation for playing against African teams.”

Iran will face Egypt in their final group match in Seattle on June 26.

On Monday, Iran suffered a significant ⁠⁠blow after it was confirmed that winger Ali Gholizadeh had suffered a season-ending knee injury while playing for his club Lech Poznan in Poland.

Gholizadeh, who would have started on the right ⁠⁠wing at the World Cup, was stretchered off the pitch against Motor Lublin last Saturday, and tests later confirmed he had torn the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee.

“Gholizadeh will face surgery ⁠⁠in the coming days, followed by several months of rehabilitation,” the club said in a statement.

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Iran says US military killed five civilians in attacks on passenger boats | US-Israel war on Iran News

Iranian commander says US military attacked two passenger boats, not IRGC vessels, in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.

Iran has accused the United States of killing five civilians in the Strait of Hormuz, saying its forces attacked passenger vessels in the waterway rather than boats belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as claimed.

The claim on Tuesday contradicted a statement by US Admiral Brad Cooper, who said Central Command forces had sunk six IRGC vessels that had attempted to interfere with a US mission to escort stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.

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US President Donald Trump later put the number at seven boats.

The US operation, dubbed “Project Freedom”, has shaken a fragile ceasefire reached between Iran and the US on April 8 and renewed fears of a return to war.

Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB quoted an unnamed Iranian military commander as saying that Tehran launched an investigation following the US claim of attacks on IRGC vessels.

It said while none of the IRGC vessels was hit, the investigation found that US forces had “attacked two small boats carrying people on their way from Khasab on the coast of Oman to the coast of Iran on Monday”.

The attacks destroyed the boats and killed five civilian passengers, the commander said. The US “must be held accountable for their crime”, the commander added.

There was no immediate comment from the US military.

The violence comes as Trump seeks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blockaded following the US and Israeli attacks on the country on February 28.

The closure of the vital maritime corridor – through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies flow – has sent oil and fertiliser prices surging around the world and prompted fears of a global recession and food emergency.

Iran is now insisting on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and collecting transit fees as reparations for the destruction caused by the US and Israel.

Attacks on UAE, ships in Hormuz

The Iranian military on Monday warned commercial vessels they would “jeopardise their safety” if they attempted to cross the waterway without permission. The military also warned US forces would face attacks if they approached or entered the chokepoint.

Amid the tensions, the United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a drone attack on one of its oil tankers that attempted to transit the strait and said Iranian forces launched 15 ballistic missiles and four drones at its territory.

UAE authorities said the attacks set off a large fire at a major oil refinery in the eastern emirate of Fujairah and wounded three Indian nationals.

A South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the HMM Namu, also reported an attack, saying an explosion had caused a fire in its engine room.

Nonetheless, the US military said two US-flagged ships made it through the strait on Monday with the support of navy guided-missile destroyers.

The IRGC denied the claim as “baseless and completely false”, but the global shipping firm Maersk said the US-flagged Alliance Fairfax exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by the US military on Monday.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the events in Hormuz on Monday “make clear there’s no military solution to a political crisis”.

He said in a post on X that peace talks with the US were “making progress” with Pakistan’s mediation and that Washington “should be wary of being dragged back into quagmire by ill-wishers”.

“So should the UAE,” he added. “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock.”

Meanwhile, Trump has renewed his threats against Iran.

He told Fox News Iran would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they attacked US vessels carrying out Project Freedom.

“We have more weapons and ammunition at a much higher grade than we had before,” he said.

“We have the best equipment. We have stuff all over the world. We have these bases worldwide. They’re all stocked up with equipment. We can use all of that stuff, and we will, if we need it.”

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Iran-US clash over alleged warship attack in Strait of Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran

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Iran claims its navy forced a US warship to turn back from the Strait of Hormuz as Washington denies any clash, amid rising tensions in the key waterway. The rival narratives come after US President Donald Trump announced Project Freedom, a mission he framed as a humanitarian effort to “free” stranded ships.

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Tackling methane emissions key for climate change and energy security: IEA | Climate Crisis News

Dealing with emissions could help alleviate effects of Iran crisis on global energy supply, says report.

Tackling methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector would help efforts to hold back climate change and increase energy security, especially as the Iran crisis threatens global supplies, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The oil, gas and coal industries account for about 35 percent of all methane emissions from human activity, notes the IEA’s Global Methane Tracker 2026, released on Monday. However, there is little progress in reducing them, the report points out.

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“There is still no sign that methane emissions from fossil fuel operations are falling, despite well-known and proven mitigation pathways,” the IEA said.

Methane, the second-biggest contributor to climate change, stays in the atmosphere for far less time than carbon dioxide, but its warming effect is roughly 80 times more potent over a 20-year period.

The IEA estimates that methane emissions from oil, gas and coal total 124 million tonnes a year. Oil is the largest source at 45 million tonnes (Mt), followed by coal at 43 Mt, and natural gas at 36 Mt.

“A further 20 Mt comes from bioenergy production and consumption, largely from the incomplete combustion of traditional biomass used for cooking and heating in developing economies,” the report added.

Oil prices have soared since the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran in late February and Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response. An April ceasefire between the sides is currently holding, but global energy supplies remain limited.

The ongoing crisis is reshaping the global energy system and disrupting about 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade flows.

Nearly 100 billion cubic metres of natural gas could be made available annually through a global effort to cut methane from oil and gas operations, the IEA said, estimating that nearly 15 billion cubic metres could be made available in a sufficiently short period of time to provide some relief to gas markets.

A further 100 billion cubic metres would be unlocked through the elimination of non-emergency flaring worldwide, it added.

Paris initiative

France, using its role as rotating chair of the Group of Seven (G7) bloc of industrialised powers, convened government officials, industry leaders and experts on Monday to build momentum on cutting methane emissions.

The conference aimed at reducing methane emissions ahead of the United Nations’ November COP31 summit.

“I sincerely hope that the discussions we will have today will enable us to join our forces to accelerate the implementation of effective solutions to reduce methane emissions,” French Ecological Transition Minister Monique Barbut said in a speech.

“Of course, action on methane is not a fight of any single actor and nobody can win it alone,” she added, noting that the world remains “very far” from meeting a pledge to cut methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030 compared with 2020 levels.

“Reducing methane emissions remains one of the best things we can do to slow global warming while cleaning up our air, improving public health, and increasing our energy security,” British Secretary of State for Energy Security Ed Miliband said in a video message.

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Captain warns ‘no ship will be a hero’ by risking Hormuz transit | US-Israel war on Iran News

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Raman Kapoor, an Indian oil tanker captain stranded in the Gulf, says no vessel will attempt to exit the Strait of Hormuz without assurance of safety, despite the announcement of a US evacuation plan for ships stranded by the war.

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US releases Touska container ship crew: Why it matters | US-Israel war on Iran News

The United States has transferred 22 crew members from the Iranian container ship, the Touska, to Pakistan, in what Islamabad describes as a “confidence-building measure” during tension in the Strait of Hormuz.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman, Captain Tim Hawkins, said the crew had been handed over for repatriation. Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed the transfer, saying the sailors would be returned to Iranian authorities.

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The Touska was seized by US forces in the Gulf of Oman in the early hours of April 20, in what Tehran described as an act of “piracy”, after the US declared a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

On Monday, tensions continued to escalate in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

First, US President Donald Trump announced that US naval ships would help guide stranded vessels through the strait in an operation he dubbed “Project Freedom”.

Iran issued a new map of the strait with new boundaries further to the east, and warned shipping not to attempt to pass without coordinating with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Then, state media reported that two Iranian missiles struck a US naval vessel near Jask Island in the strait after ignoring warnings from the IRGC to turn back. Washington denied any attack.

Amid continued interceptions and seizures of vessels by both sides, questions remain over whether the two countries can de-escalate and reach a broader peace agreement. Pakistan has been central to these efforts, seeking to keep diplomatic channels open, but talks hosted in Islamabad last month ended without a breakthrough.

Iran’s foreign ministry says it is reviewing Washington’s response to its 14-point proposal aimed at ending the conflict sent via Pakistan on Friday. As Pakistan continues to mediate, Trump previously described Tehran’s offer as “unacceptable”.

What happened to the Touska?

The Iran-flagged Touska was seized by US forces in the Gulf of Oman, close to the Strait of Hormuz, on April 20 after Washington accused the crew of failing to comply with the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Shortly after midnight local time in Iran, CENTCOM said the USS Spruance fired its 5-inch (127mm) deck gun at the vessel’s engine room, disabling it.

According to the US military, the ship was attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz en route to Iran’s main commercial port, Bandar Abbas.

The Touska, a small container ship operated by the sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), was boarded near Iran’s Chabahar port. US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit captured the vessel after what CENTCOM said were repeated warnings over six hours.

Video released by the US military showed Marines descending from helicopters launched from the USS Tripoli and securing the Tusk.

Iran condemned the capture as a violation of international law and an act of “piracy“, before demanding the immediate release of the vessel and its crew.

What does the release of the Touska’s crew mean, diplomatically?

Pakistan has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, and is now framing the transfer of the Touska crew as a step towards de-escalation of tensions. In a statement, the Pakistani foreign ministry said the move reflected a “confidence-building measure” and reaffirmed its commitment to facilitating dialogue.

US and Iranian delegations met in Islamabad last month for their first talks since 1979. Although negotiations ended without a deal, they marked a rare moment of direct engagement.

Pakistan has since coordinated with regional powers, including Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Qatar and Egypt, while maintaining close communications with China, in an effort to build broader support for de-escalation.

In a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, on Monday, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ishaq Dar, reiterated that diplomacy remains the only viable path to stability. Tehran, in turn, acknowledged Islamabad’s mediation efforts.

INTERACTIVE - Strait of Hormuz - March 2, 2026-1772714221
(Al Jazeera)

Will this de-escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz?

There are not many signs that it will.

Indeed, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to increase despite the release of the crew members.

Most notably, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard published a new map on Monday outlining what it claims is an expanded zone of control in the waterway, stretching from Iranian and Omani territory to include the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates as well.

Analysts say this new claim exceeds internationally recognised boundaries. The UAE has accused Iran of launching drones at an oil tanker linked to Abu Dhabi’s national energy company, while Washington has dismissed Iranian reports of an attack on a US warship as false.

Military analyst Alexandru Hudisteanu, a maritime security expert who served 13 years in the Romanian navy, told Al Jazeera on Monday that the conflicting claims reflect a broader test of resolve. “Any attempt to open the strait will likely be met with resistance from Iran,” he said, adding that Tehran views control of Hormuz as its primary leverage in negotiations.

Hudisteanu warned that the situation carries a high risk of miscalculation, with both sides continuing to operate in close proximity. For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is the “only leverage” it has for peace negotiations, Hudisteanu said.

Iranian analyst Foad Izadi argued that the ceasefire effectively collapsed when the US imposed its blockade, which he described as “an act of war”. He added that the targeting and seizure of ships along the Strait of Hormuz further undermined any notion of a truce.

“Attacking an Iranian ship’s engine is an act of war as well,” he added, despite the release of the Touska’s crew signalling some short-term goodwill between the US and Iran.

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Does Trump hold ‘all the cards’ against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz? | US-Israel war on Iran News

“I have all the cards,” posted the White House on its X account on Sunday, alongside an image of President Donald Trump holding playing cards from the Uno game, in a message appearing to signal Washington’s confidence in its ongoing war on Iran.

Uno is a card game in which the winner is the first to get rid of all their cards.

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The post came after Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that the US military would begin guiding ships stranded around the Strait of Hormuz by the war on Monday, in a sign that the conflict could further escalate, despite the near-month-long fragile ceasefire. Tehran has been effectively blocking nearly all shipping from the Gulf for more than two months, after the US and Israel attacked Iran two months ago, disrupting global energy supplies.

“We have told these countries that we will guide their ships safely out of these restricted waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business,” Trump said, dubbing the campaign “Project Freedom”. “They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders!”

The president added that US negotiators were engaged in “very positive discussions” with Tehran, which could lead to “something very positive” without further elaboration.

Iran, however, reacted by insisting that the security of the waterway was in the hands of its armed forces, and warned that “any safe passage and navigation in any situation” should be “carried out in coordination with the armed forces”.

On Monday, the Iranian Fars news agency reported that a US warship had been hit by two Iranian drones, the claim was denied by US Central Command.

So what leverage do the US and Iran hold over each other, and what happens next?

In response to Trump’s “I have all the cards” social media post, Iran’s Consulate General in Hyderabad, India, posted its own image on X.

“Yes, we have less cards,” Iran’s consulate in the Indian city of Hyderabad wrote on X, together with a photo of an Iranian military spokesperson holding four Uno cards compared to Trump’s five, pointing out that usually holding all the cards means you are losing, not winning, in the game of Uno.

In response to Trump’s “Project Freedom” declaration, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that ships deemed to be in breach of its rules in the Strait of Hormuz “will be stopped by force”, while insisting there has been no change in how it manages traffic through the strategic waterway.

On Monday, it issued a new map of the Strait of Hormuz with boundaries extending further to the east than its previous one, and said any ship travelling between the two sides must coordinate with the IRGC first.

“There has been no change in the management process of the Strait of Hormuz,” spokesperson Sardar Mohebbi said, adding that vessels that comply with the “transit protocols issued by the IRGC Navy” will be “safe and secure”.

“Other maritime movements that are contrary to the declared principles of the IRGC Navy will face serious risks. Violating vessels will be stopped by force,” he said.

What leverage does the US have over Iran?

Sanctions

The United States’ most enduring source of leverage over Iran remains its sanctions regime, which was launched in 1979 when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared Iran an Islamic Republic.

Successive US administrations over the past 47 years have hit Tehran with a series of financial restrictions targeting Iran’s banking, oil exports and access to international markets – the US says the sanctions are a response to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Sanctions have significantly constrained Iran’s economy, limiting government revenue and contributing to inflation and currency depreciation. Measures enforced through the US Treasury also deter other countries and companies from engaging with Iran, further strangling its economy.

The economic pressure has been central to US strategy towards Iran, particularly during its attempts to force Tehran back to negotiations over its nuclear programme, under both Democratic and Republican administrations.

Military power

Beyond economics, the US maintains overwhelming military superiority, especially air power. Aircraft carriers, long-range bombers and precision strike capabilities give Washington the ability to target Iranian infrastructure with relatively low risk to its own forces.

US bases across the Gulf, as well as military partnerships with regional allies – most notably Israel – reinforce this advantage.

American forces, together with the Israeli army, have killed more than 3,000 people, and struck thousands of sites across Iran in the current war, including Iran’s energy and nuclear sites.

Naval blockade

Since mid-April, the United States has enforced a widespread naval blockade of Iranian ports and ships. The operation began on April 13 after talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed, with US forces ordered to stop or divert vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.

US forces have since intercepted or turned back dozens of ships, and seized a container ship, the Touska. On Monday, the US announced that its crew had been repatriated to Iran from Pakistan, where they were taken after their ship was captured in the Gulf of Oman last month.

According to Trump, the blockade is designed to choke Iran’s oil exports, its main revenue source.

US officials say the measures have severely disrupted Iran’s trade, which relies heavily on sea routes.

What leverage does Iran have?

Strait of Hormuz

The vital waterway is Iran’s most significant strategic asset, the narrow passage ships one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies in peacetime.

Tehran has effectively closed the strait since the war began on February 28, sending global oil and gas prices soaring and energy markets into turmoil. Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to target shipping, seize vessels, or conduct military exercises, demonstrating its ability to close or restrict the strait.

The result is soaring energy prices globally, forcing many countries to implement severe austerity measures to soften the blow.

Last week in the US, the average price of a gallon (3.8 litres) of gasoline (petrol) rose to $4.30, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from less than $3 before the war.

Surging energy costs have driven up inflation and deepened economic uncertainty in the US, compounding Trump’s political troubles amid overwhelming disapproval for the war amongst Americans.

Even if the US does begin escorting ships through safely – the threat from mines or Iranian strikes may be enough to prevent tankers from attempting to sail, experts say. Insurance companies are also unlikely to underwrite voyages.

Regional allies

Iran’s network of allied groups across the Middle East is another asset that Tehran relies on heavily. These include armed groups in Iraq and Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen

Through these groups, Iran has exerted pressure indirectly, targeting US interests and allies without engaging in direct confrontation.

One critical threat Iran has previously made is for the Houthis to disrupt shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb, another vital maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

INTERACTIVE - Bab al-Mandeb strait red sea map route shipping map-1774773769

The Houthis, an Iran-aligned group in Yemen, have previously targeted shipping in this area, most notably during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, further raising concerns about the security of global trade routes.

Roughly 4.2 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum liquids flowed through the strait in 2014, accounting for about five percent of global supply.

Cheap drones and cluster bombs

While nowhere near the military capabilities of the US, Iran’s investment in missile and drone programmes has proven to be an effective means of deterrence. That is particularly through its ability to threaten regional US bases and impose significant costs on regional countries hosting American assets involved in military operations against Tehran.

While the US undoubtedly has a more sophisticated and powerful arsenal at its disposal, the interceptors it uses to combat Iranian drones cost around $4 million each, while Iran’s Shahed drones can be mass-produced at $20-50,000 each.

Furthermore, Iran’s ballistic missiles have proved capable of breaching Israel’s much-lauded “Iron Dome” defence system on several occasions. Iran has also dropped cluster bombs, which divide before they can be intercepted, making them much harder to stop.

So does the US really hold the most cards?

Michael Clarke, visiting professor at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London, said Trump’s overwhelming conventional military strength has failed to translate into strategic leverage on the ground.

“President Trump thinks he is a great poker player,” Clarke told Al Jazeera. “He thought America’s sheer destructive potential put all the ‘cards’ in his hand” when starting the war on Iran.

But Iranian forces have consistently disrupted US expectations through asymmetric tactics, he said.

“At every turn, the Iranians have come up with asymmetric tactics – vicious, reckless tactics – that have negated everything the Americans have tried to do,” Clarke noted, describing a pattern in which traditional US military superiority has been blunted by unconventional responses.

Despite significant American forces and assets in the region – including “no fewer than three US Carrier Strike Groups, two Marine Expeditionary Units, hundreds of combat aircraft and thousands of troops”, Clarke argued that Washington has struggled to find an effective use for its multi-billion-dollar resources at its disposal.

Moreover, he said, domestic pressure on Trump is growing. Trump “can’t find a way to use them [US forces] that will make any real difference to the current stalemate in the limited time he has before his own MAGA base concludes he has lost the game”.

Clarke also highlighted the willingness of Iran’s IRGC to escalate tensions. “Whatever this war might do to Iranian society, the IRGC is prepared to gamble with its own existence in the fight,” he added.

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Iran says it fired missiles at US warship to prevent it entering Hormuz | US-Israel war on Iran

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Iranian state media says two missiles have struck a US navy destroyer to prevent it entering the Strait of Hormuz after the warship ignored warnings to halt. The attack comes after US President Donald Trump announced a naval mission to ‘guide’ stranded ships through the strait.

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