US-Israel war on Iran

Oman’s proposal is based on the Strait of Malacca in East Asia, a model whereby ships that use the strait provide voluntary fees.

Iran and Oman have exchanged proposals regarding the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, as points of contention continue to exist between the two nations whose territorial waters border the strategic waterway.

Oman presented a proposal to Iran ⁠for ⁠a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with “voluntary fees”, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Under the Omani proposal, which reportedly has regional backing, Iran would not exercise sole control ⁠of the strait, an unnamed Gulf source and Western diplomat ⁠told the news agency.

Oman’s proposal is reportedly based on the Strait of Malacca, which connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans. There, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore ask ships that use the strait to voluntarily contribute to fund navigation, environmental protection, and ‌search-and-rescue operations.

This proposal aims to contribute to ending the global disruption to trade caused by the strait’s closure in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Tehran, however, says the strait ⁠cannot go back to its pre-war status where shipping flowed freely,

In comments to Iranian state media on Tuesday, Kazem Gharibabadi, the country’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, said Tehran rejects an Omani proposal for an equal division of transit routes between the two countries, as such a plan does not address Tehran’s security concerns.

Gharibabadi said that Tehran proposed to Oman that Iran would manage shipping through its side of ‌the strait and Muscat would manage part but not all of the opposite lane.

He added that Tehran has “no plans to negotiate with the US”, but affirmed talks are proceeding “step by step” with Oman, warning that Tehran will consider “any action” to maintain control over the strait, including the resumption of war.

“The Omanis are now suggesting three lines for the maritime traffic: one that runs through Iran’s territorial waters, an international one, and one through Omani territorial waters,” said Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran. “Despite public statements, our sources tell us Iran is demonstrating some flexibility.”

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi, also reporting from Tehran, said there remain many “points of contention” between Oman and Iran on Hormuz. These include the trajectory of the ships, the fees, the question of who will define the arrangements, and mine clearances – which will reportedly be Iran’s responsibility.

Paul Musgrave, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Oman’s proposal to Iran to get the Strait of Hormuz running again is positive, but it remains to be seen if hardliners in Iran will go for it.

Musgrave noted that under the Strait of Malacca model, voluntary contributions raise about $70m annually, far from the $1m per ship that’s reportedly been proposed by Tehran as a “service fee” in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers met via video call on Tuesday to discuss the latest developments in the conflict, including ways to improve cooperation on issues surrounding freedom and navigation through the waterway, a statement from the Qatari Foreign Ministry said.

The United States suspended a nearly two-week-long campaign of air strikes against Iran over the weekend after pressure from regional mediators to find a diplomatic solution and to return to the memorandum of understanding signed in June, which would allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait carried one-fifth of global energy supplies before ⁠the February 28 start of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iran rejected US President Donald Trump’s claim that ships damaged by Iran in the Gulf would be compensated from frozen Iranian funds. IRGC spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari warned that any vessel taking such money will be banned from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, it was reported that US President Donald Trump placed massive attacks on Iran on hold after a meeting with advisers at the White House. Clearly, domestic political pressure on him and on the Republican Party over rising economic costs is fierce. Current polls suggest nearly 70 percent of Americans oppose the war.

Despite assertions, notably by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, that Iran’s military has reached “its lowest point ever”, Iran is still able to conduct massive drone and missile strikes. Some intelligence suggests Iran has reconstituted and increased its capacity to build these weapons.

Meanwhile, the US has moved more aircraft and missile defence units in preparation for what may be a campaign to target staging points for Iranian forces. Two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) and components of the 82nd or 101st Airborne are currently stationed in the region.

Yet, reports that the US and its Gulf allies have exhausted defensive missile magazines, as well as Tomahawk land-attack missiles, may be a powerful constraint.

While Trump appears not to have made a decision yet, he has several options on how to move forward.

The first option is ramping up air and missile strikes. One of the challenges of this strategy is that the list of military targets may have been exhausted. If so, expanding the aerial campaign would mean attacking largely civilian infrastructure, including energy production facilities, electricity and power grids, bridges and roads, and television and phone networks. The likely outcomes are all bad.

Trump would be accused of war crimes. The Iranian public would coalesce in their resentment against the US. Iran’s ability to strike back would not be significantly curbed and it may strike Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure. The result would be a humanitarian catastrophe. No plans exist to deal with this contingency. And of course, oil could soar to $150 or even $200 a barrel, triggering an international economic disaster.

Another option is a ground invasion of some sort. The forces currently deployed in the region are too small to achieve any realistic military objectives. A MEU numbers about 2,500 marines and only 800 of them are infantry, able to conduct very limited ground operations. Airborne units deploy with only a few days worth of bullets, beans and batteries. Resupply is essential for these units.

As retired US Army General Barry McCaffery has pointed out, even 150,000 troops may not be enough to secure control of the Strait of Hormuz along the Iranian coast.

Attacking Kharg Island requires a long and dangerous transit from the western end of the Strait of Hormuz. That would create conditions for a high number of casualties among US troops.

The third option is for Trump to employ a nuclear weapon, at least as a demonstration shot. That would open a catastrophic Pandora’s box of consequences. Trump would be declared a war criminal. Wherever and however the weapon is detonated—an air or surface burst—it would have destructive outcomes.

If exploded exoatmospherically, the nuclear bomb would emit an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which would destroy virtually all chip-installed systems for hundreds of miles beyond Iran. Few modern militaries, including in the Gulf, are protected from EMP due to costs. A surface burst would form a radioactive cloud that would travel east given the winds and affect populations well beyond Iran.

A major geopolitical consequence would be that such an attack could change the way Russia’s President Vladimir Putin sees the possibility of using nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.

Given this list of unpalatable options, the most promising is to claim victory and pursue negotiations. Trump will say he has brought Iran to the negotiating table even though talks between Washington and Tehran have not stopped despite the escalation. The first issue would be reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. Oil prices would drop. Stock markets would rebound.

Trump would take the credit. And a devastating war and economic crisis would be sensibly avoided. This is his best and only sensible option.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long presented his closeness to the United States – both politically and personally – as evidence of his indispensability to Israel.

Arriving with a camera-ready American accent after spending a large portion of his youth in the country, Netanyahu is said to have used his unique understanding of US politics to charm and cajole numerous presidents into maintaining their unflagging support of Israel and his personal political projects.

For a time it appeared as though US President Donald Trump was the most amenable of all past presidents to Israel and to Netanyahu, particularly after he became the first US leader to agree to participate in a joint war with Israel against Iran.

And yet, with that war stalling, Trump appearing more willing to make deals in the Middle East without Israeli input, and increasing criticism of Israel in the US, there is a sense in Israel that Netanyahu’s Trump card may not be as useful as it once was.

That has come at a bad time for Netanyahu, who faces an election at home in late October and an ongoing trial for corruption, as well as several unresolved conflicts in the region.

Netanyahu’s visit to Washington on Tuesday to meet Trump – his first since the war on Iran began – therefore is an opportunity for a refresh – and a photo opportunity to remind the Israeli public of his ties to the US president.

The optics

Strains in Netanyahu’s relationship with Trump have been growing since the start of the war on Iran, after reporting emerged that it was the Israeli prime minister who convinced the US president of the feasibility of the mission, and the potential for the Iranian state to be overthrown.

Concern has also grown within the US Congress over Netanyahu’s apparent indulgence of Israel’s increasingly violent settler movement – which included the extrajudicial detention of a US senator by settlers – alongside friction over Washington’s decision to consider selling F-35s to Israel’s regional rival Turkiye and agreeing a nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia.

“The real reason Netanyahu’s got this visit [to Washington] is purely cynical,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told Al Jazeera. “He’s claimed that he’s flying all the way to the US to attend the wake of his apparently great friend [deceased Republican Senator] Lindsey Graham.”

“Supposedly there’s an agenda, supposedly they’re going to talk about Iran, F-35s and Saudi Arabia’s potential nuclear deal,” said Pinkas.

“But really this is about two things: hoping to assure allies and critics within Israel that the relationship with Trump holds and, separately, hoping that Trump will again call for his pardon in the corruption trial,” he added, referring to Trump’s unorthodox intervention in Israel on Netanyahu’s behalf in November 2025.

However, while Netanyahu may be hoping that a good meeting with Trump may help him in the polls, he arrives at a time when his stock in the US is potentially at its lowest.

Netanyahu has received widespread criticism from figures on the American right, such as podcast host Tucker Carlson and the former Republican US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. Vice President JD Vance has also been critical of “some” Israelis, using an interview with US podcaster Joe Rogan to suggest that figures within the Israeli government were trying to derail the agreement he was brokering with Iran to end the war.

Analysts have suggested that the Trump-Netanyahu meeting will combine public flattery with private cynicism on the US president’s part. Asked about Netanyahu’s public resistance to the F-35 sale to Turkiye on board Air Force One on Monday, Trump told reporters, “Nobody tells me what we should be selling”.

“Netanyahu arrives in Washington at a time when even many around [Trump] are suspicious of him. He has become toxic in the US,” Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow in the Department for War Studies at King’s College London. “He is regarded in the US – rightly or wrongly – as the one who dragged Trump into a war of choice that has turned into a strategic catastrophe. Nobody, not even Trump, will let him pretend to be the cleverest guy in the room. Those days are gone.”

While few expect any overt signs of disharmony from the visit in public, Netanyahu’s ability to present himself as uniquely positioned to manage the country’s relationship with the US – a key factor in the upcoming election – may be limited.

“Netanyahu’s had a tremendous track record with the US, but he’s burned a lot of bridges,” Mitchell Barak, an Israeli pollster and a former Netanyahu aide in the 1990s, told Al Jazeera, adding that the criticism of Netanyahu was not isolated to figures within the nationalist wing of the Republican Party, but included Israel’s traditional allies within the party’s centre right.

“We’ve seen tension through Trump’s comments on the various F-35 sales, including most recently to Turkiye, as well as US criticism of Netanyahu at the start of the Iran war, so I’m not too sure if Trump’s going to be stumping for Netanyahu for all that much longer,” Barak said. “It could easily be that Trump declares Netanyahu was a great wartime leader, but that it was time for Israel to move on, before meeting with [other Israeli politicians] and endorsing a new prime minister for Israel.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has arrived in Washington, DC, and will visit the White House on Tuesday, with the war on Iran topping the agenda.

Netanyahu’s visit is his first for talks with President Donald Trump since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran with strikes on Tehran on February 28. It also comes amid increasing Israeli raids and arrests in the occupied West Bank and three months before elections in Israel.

He has visited the White House more times under the Trump administration than under any other US president. Political analysts say Netanyahu is seeking Trump’s support for re-election.

What are the two leaders likely to discuss and what happens next in the US-Israel war on Iran?

Here’s what we know:

Why are Trump and Netanyahu meeting now?

Netanyahu is primarily in the US to attend the funeral ceremony of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died on July 11.

Graham was a close Trump ally in the Senate, both on domestic and international matters, including the war on Iran, as well as a staunch supporter of Israel. His funeral ceremony will take place on Tuesday in Washington, DC, beginning at 2pm (19:00 GMT).

Before attending Graham’s memorial, Netanyahu is also expected to meet Trump at 11am (15:00 GMT) in Washington, DC, where protesters have lined the streets in anticipation of his visit.

He is scheduled to fly back to Israel on Wednesday.

What are Trump and Netanyahu likely to discuss?

A White House official told the Reuters news agency that the two leaders were likely to discuss the war on Iran as well as Israeli strikes and occupation of Lebanon, whose president Trump hosted last week. Israel says it is targeting strongholds of the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which began firing rockets into its north shortly after the war on Iran began. However, Iran says it will not agree to a peace deal unless Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanon.

Reporting from Washington, DC, Al Jazeera’s Alan Fisher said many people in Israel believe the US should not make a deal with Iran and should instead resume the war. He said some in the US support this view.

“Now, Trump has expressed his frustration with Netanyahu and has said several times that he feels the Israeli leader is not seeing the big picture. And sometimes you’re not sure whether both men are on the same page or whether they are diametrically opposed to one another. So it will be interesting to see if we get any readout from either side after that meeting,” he said.

Fisher, however, added that the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is currently not expected to be made public.

The White House official also told Reuters that the two leaders would also discuss the Abraham Accords, the series of agreements between Israel and Arab and other nations which Trump began brokering during his first term as US president to normalise diplomatic relations. So far, only the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and Kazakhstan have agreed to sign.

Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, DC comes amid intensifying pogroms and violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinian communities across the occupied West Bank over the weekend following a deadly shootout in the town of Tal, in which two Israelis and four Palestinians were killed.

Israeli settlers have been making a push to increase the number of illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank since 2022, when Netanyahu formed the most far-right government in the country’s history, including ministers who are leading figures in the settler movement.

Expanding the illegal settlements would help Netanyahu garner the far right’s support in the upcoming elections, political observers say.

However, in a letter published on Tuesday, about 600 former Israeli officials appealed to Trump, saying he is the only one capable of helping to avoid the “calamity” of escalating violence in the West Bank and its implications for Israeli, US and regional security.

“Unless arrested swiftly and decisively, escalating violence in the West Bank is poised to ignite the region and carries severe ramifications for both Israeli security and US regional interests,” the letter, written by lobby group Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS), stated.

“It is our professional judgment that no one but you, Mr President, can avert this calamity.”

CIS is a movement of more than 550 retired Israeli army colonels and generals, as well as equivalent ranks in the intelligence agency Mossad, the internal security agency Shin Bet, police, the foreign service and other corps.

What do Trump and Netanyahu currently disagree on?

The two leaders once appeared politically inseparable, with Netanyahu describing Trump as the “greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House” last October. Trump returned the praise. During a 2025 appearance in Israel, he joked, “He’s not easy – not the easiest guy to deal with – but that’s what makes him great.”

But Israel’s hostilities with Iran have showcased a crack in Netanyahu and Trump’s alignment.

War on Iran

Last month, Trump reportedly called Netanyahu “f****** crazy” during a phone call and accused him of undermining US diplomatic efforts to end the war on Iran by continuing attacks on Lebanon, among other issues. He warned that Israel’s military escalation risked derailing peace talks with Iran.

“He will have no choice,” Trump told the Financial Times when asked about the likelihood of Netanyahu approving a possible peace agreement with Iran. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”

Political observers say the two leaders are each driven by their own political interests, which are on a collision course. In the US, the war with Iran is deeply unpopular, so Trump needs to reach a deal with Iran to end the war. Netanyahu, on the other hand, could benefit politically at home if it were to continue.

‘Regime change’ in Iran

“Regime change” in Iran appears to be a major sticking point between the two leaders.

Alex Vatanka at the Middle East Institute told Al Jazeera that Netanyahu is likely to try and “sell the idea of regime change again in Tehran” when he meets Trump at the White House on Tuesday.

“I don’t think it will go down well with President Trump because he doesn’t want to do that,” Vatanka said. “Politically, in the US, this war is hugely unpopular, so it remains to be seen what Prime Minister Netanyahu gets out of this meeting.”

He added that previous meetings between Trump and Netanyahu in Washington, DC, have often preceded a flare-up in tensions with Iran, and it remains to be seen whether this one breaks that pattern.

Vatanka said Israelis are still unhappy with the Trump administration about the memorandum of understanding agreed with Tehran, because they “have a different sense of threat perception when it comes to Iran”.

Israeli officials will want Netanyahu to continue to press Trump on Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes, he said.

“The Trump administration’s counter to that is there is only so much the US can do militarily unless they decide to go in and occupy Iran, and this is something nobody really takes seriously,” he added.

But in a video statement before departing for Washington, DC, Netanyahu said: “In these complex times, you need to act with both great determination and great wisdom. We will discuss all the issues ⁠on the agenda, primarily Iran.”

“Of course, our goal is to protect our security and also to expand the circle of peace around us,” he added.

Lebanon

Israel has also refused to withdraw from Lebanon, insisting that it has the right to bomb the country at any time to respond to “threats”.

According to Axios, in a phone call in early June, Trump told Netanyahu: “Everybody hates you now … everybody hates Israel because of this.”

According to an Israeli official quoted by CNN, Netanyahu told his security cabinet on Sunday that the Trump administration wants Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza but he would oppose the idea.

US-Turkiye aircraft deal

Al Jazeera’s Fisher noted that another point of friction between the two leaders is Washington’s sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkiye.

“Netanyahu doesn’t want that to happen. Trump was asked about it in the last few hours, and he said we will sell to whoever he wants. So it could be a very interesting meeting at the White House on Tuesday,” Fisher said.

In July, in an interview with Fox News, Netanyahu said: “I don’t think they [Turkiye] should be given F-35s or the engines for their fighter jets because that’ll upset the power balance in the Middle East, which is ultimately guaranteed by Israeli air superiority, and also by, I think, by America’s posture in the Middle East.”

So, do Trump and Netanyahu agree on anything?

Currently, there are frictions between the two leaders’ policies towards the June 17 MoU between the US and Iran that made provision for a regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon.

In February, a White House official told reporters that the Trump administration also opposes any Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu has, however, brushed off frictions with Trump and said their ties are “fine”.

In an interview with Fox News in early July, Netanyahu heaped praise on the US and Trump.

“America has been a tremendous force for good, and without America, there won’t be any democracy in the world, and there won’t be any freedom in the world,” he said.

Netanyahu said there may be some differences between the US and Israel, but the two countries are “model allies”.

“My relationship with the president is fine, and we have a way of ironing out our differences as allies who respect each other,” he said, adding that he would smooth things over.

But an Israeli official told CNN on Monday that it had taken time to schedule the meeting with Trump, and that Netanyahu got confirmation only once Graham’s funeral had been announced.

Speaking to reporters about the war on Iran on board Air Force One while travelling to Michigan on Monday, Trump said Israel “needs the US”.

“You know who wouldn’t survive without us? Israel. Bibi’s coming, he’ll tell you,” he said.

“If I didn’t get involved, and I didn’t blow up those nuclear, essentially, soon-to-be nuclear weapons to dust, Israel would have been terminated months ago.”

Trump added that he and Netanyahu remain “pretty close”.

What happens next?

Amid frictions, it is unclear whether the meeting will end with Israel and the US continuing their war on Iran and Israel continuing its attacks on southern Lebanon, Gaza and in the occupied West Bank.

Therefore, it is going to be a high-stakes meeting for Netanyahu.

Sources have also told Reuters that Netanyahu would use the meeting to lobby for Trump’s support for his re-election campaign ahead of an October 27 vote.

A meeting with Trump will, he hopes, showcase what has traditionally been ⁠a close relationship between the two leaders and could help Netanyahu at home, where he is struggling in opinion polls.

The US has paused its two-week bombing campaign against Iran, prompting Tehran to suspend its regional retaliatory attacks.

Iran’s supreme leader calls for ‘absolute, unconditional termination’ of Israel’s attacks on Lebanon amid reports of renewed diplomacy.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has said that peace between Tehran and the United States is contingent on Israel stopping its attacks on Lebanon.

Khamenei made the statement in a post on X on Sunday.

Iran “has designated the preservation of Lebanon’s territorial integrity, and the absolute, unconditional termination of the Zionist regime’s aggression as the primary condition for any agreement to ending the imposed war against the aggressive US,” he wrote.

Khamenei also voiced his support for the Lebanese group Hezbollah, its former leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and the people of southern Lebanon – the focal point of Israel’s attacks – in a series of posts.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran considers the defense of these oppressed yet powerful mujahideen [of Hezbollah] to be its strategic mandate,” Khamenei said.

Khamenei’s intervention comes amid reports of a halt to attacks and renewed diplomacy between Tehran and Washington.

Iran has insisted on an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon a precondition for ending the war, enshrining that demand in the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the two countries in June.

That agreement has since collapsed amid a dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.

Lebanon was drawn into the conflict in March after Hezbollah launched strikes on northern Israel, citing both the killing of then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the war’s first day, February 28, and Israel’s near-daily bombardment of Lebanese territory – attacks it says violated a ceasefire that had ended an earlier round of hostilities in 2024.

On June 26, following the signing of the US-Iran MoU, Lebanon and Israel signed a US-mediated framework agreement stipulating a phased Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory, but without a timetable for the withdrawal.

Instead, it said Israel will withdraw from occupied territories once Hezbollah is disarmed.

Iran and Hezbollah, which was not a party to the talks, have rejected the deal.

While the first phase is Israel’s withdrawal from three “pilot zones”, the Lebanese army said on Sunday that Israeli forces are obstructing the process, including by refusing to withdraw from designated territories.

As of Sunday, Israel was still bulldozing, shelling and conducting combing operations with machineguns across large areas of southern Lebanese territory it is occupying.

At least 4,329 people have been killed, while 37 Israeli soldiers and four Israeli civilians have died in the latest round of violence in Lebanon.

Israel violated a previous ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel more than 10,000 times, according to UN peacekeepers.

Mojtaba Khamenei is the son of the former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He was selected as supreme leader after the US and Israel’s assassination of his father.

Khamenei’s statement on Lebanon comes as war spreads into Yemen, with reports of an exchange of attacks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

Tehran, Iran – Iran and the United States have returned to mediated talks, and their military action is temporarily suspended, but the war continues to impact international maritime corridors beyond the Strait of Hormuz as well as domestic markets.

The near-total closure of the strategic waterway, disruptions in the Red Sea by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen and Ukraine attacking an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea have all kept tensions high.

Iran’s government is also facing more tough choices, including a potential fuel price hike amid high social and economic discontent, as the US military enforces a naval blockade of the country’s southern ports for a second time.

The Ministry of Petroleum said on Saturday that Iran has sold $11.5bn of crude oil during the war without specifying the exact dates and $6.5bn during the period of the now-suspended memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed with the US last month. It said the combined figure represented 60 percent of the full-year oil revenue target in the budget.

The signing of the June 17 MoU led to the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran, which eased some of the pressure on global oil markets and allowed Iran to export oil stored on supertankers waiting to sail from its territorial waters. Iran’s Petroleum Ministry said increased oil prices generated about $3bn in additional value in the first half of the year and $11bn from the yields has so far been transferred to government coffers despite US embargoes.

During the previous blockade that was imposed on April 13 and lasted a little over two months, Iranian authorities attested to near-zero crude exports. A prolonged second blockade risks further reducing Iran’s export revenues and piling pressure on Kharg Island, through which about 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports pass, and other Iranian storage and export sites, which could in turn affect production at petrochemical plants and make an eventual restart costlier and slower.

The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) said that as of Saturday, soldiers had redirected 12 commercial vessels trying to run the blockade that has been in place since mid-July, disabled two that did not comply and boarded two “to ensure total compliance”.

The US military also showed footage of heavily armed soldiers rappelling down from a helicopter onto the deck of the Charminar, an Iran-linked oil tanker subject to US sanctions since last year for allegedly being part of the Shamkhani network. The US says Iranian oil magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani plays a central role in Iranian and Russian shadow fleet operations.

Iran has also said it has been redirecting multiple ships each day to keep the strait closed as its armed forces emphasised that they will not bow to pressure. On Sunday, Iranian media reports said a vessel blew up after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz.

Still, CENTCOM has stopped extensive bombing strikes against Iran for two nights with US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz saying President Donald Trump is giving talks with Tehran “some space”.

Iran has also stopped retaliatory attacks across the region while Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said discussions with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz have been productive.

The domestic picture

The oil export constraints, however, are still adding to Iran’s existing economic woes, which are linked to domestic structural issues and mismanagement as well as years of harsh sanctions.

Iran’s infrastructure has also suffered significant damage during the war launched by the US and Israel in late February and may fare worse if the conflict escalates.

The government said last month that about 230 million cubic metres (300 million cubic yards) per day of Iran’s pre-war natural gas output of roughly 650 million cubic metres (850 million cubic yards) was lost due to US and Israeli bombing, worsening electricity and petrochemical shortages.

Sekhavat Asadi, managing director of the Pars Special Economic Energy Zone, said on Sunday that Iran expects to restore more than 100 million cubic metres (130 million cubic yards) per day of that lost production capacity within the coming months.

Authorities are also managing a fuel imbalance as the country faces a deficit of more than 20 million litres (5.3 million gallons) per day of petrol. The shortage is managed through limited but costly imports, blending fuel components, tapping inventories stocked before the war and repeatedly asking citizens to consume less.

The Petroleum Ministry said tighter monthly fuel consumption caps may be imposed if the imbalance persists.

The government said this week that it is seriously considering doubling the price of a third tier of monthly petrol quotas allocated to individuals.

Another petrol price hike was made in December, weeks before the country was swept by a wave of nationwide protests, in which thousands of people were killed in a government crackdown in January. An overnight fuel price increase in November 2019 also triggered deadly nationwide protests.

The capital, Tehran, and cities across the country are facing rolling electricity cuts, which also create water and communications disruptions. President Masoud Pezeshkian said he has ordered industries not to be cut off until late September to avoid further inflaming a bruised jobs market.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also hit Iran’s commerce with China, its largest trading partner and buyer of oil, which has considerably curtailed its overall crude oil imports to adapt to conditions created by the war.

But nonoil trade with China has also deteriorated since the start of the war, falling by 75 percent in March and June when compared with a year before, according to Chinese customs data.

Two near-total internet shutdowns imposed by the authorities, first during the January protests and then during the war, only worsened conditions for Iran’s economy this year as it battles chronic inflation and a rapid dwindling of public purchasing power.

A report last year by the Saba Pension Strategies Institute, a think tank affiliated with Iran’s state-run pension fund, found that while a little more than 30 percent of Iranians lived below the poverty line five years ago, that rate was projected to have reached 45 percent this year – and was still rising.

Spread to Bab al-Mandeb, Caspian Sea

After repeated Iranian threats that escalating the war could spread the scope of maritime disruptions to the Red Sea, the Houthis in Yemen last week declared a blockade against Saudi Arabia, turning back or hitting vessels transiting near the strait of Bab al-Mandeb while also bombing Saudi oil facilities.

Dozens of commodity vessels have still continued their transit through the strait, including Chinese supertankers, but war-risk premiums have increased, raising import and insurance costs for all.

Saudi authorities, who lead a coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognised government against the Houthis, have responded by launching major air attacks across Yemen.

And farther north, Ukraine has confirmed that it struck a vessel in the Caspian Sea with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alleging it was carrying Iran-linked military cargo.

Iran’s authorities said it was a commercial vessel importing iron from Astrakhan, a port on the Volga River in Russia, and bound for Bandar Anzali in northern Iran. They said one sailor was killed and three were wounded.

The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Kyiv’s charge d’affaires in Tehran to deliver a strong protest and a warning that “the act will not go unanswered”.

The incident has raised concerns that the Caspian Sea, a waterway previously used safely for trade, could also become the scene of more military confrontations.

Iran’s Caspian trade is primarily with Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. It imports essential goods, such as wheat and other grains, corn, barley and animal feed as well as timber and fertiliser.

The country’s exports through the northern maritime route include construction materials, steel products, agricultural goods and some refined petrochemical products.

The war’s expanding disruptions have only prompted hardline state-linked analysts to advocate closer strategic partnerships with China and Russia.

“We can now say that the two war fronts in the Middle East and Ukraine are increasingly intertwined,” Mahdi Kharratiyan, a political analyst linked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote on X on Sunday.

Sumaya Yaghi returns to what’s left of her destroyed home in southern Lebanon after Israeli troops withdrew from her ‘pilot zone’ village under a US-backed agreement.

Iran says it has halted ‘retaliatory operations’ in the Gulf but warns that if the US continues its attacks, the conflict will expand across the region. Army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia had a message for the US ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.

The US military has released footage it says shows forces boarding one tanker and disabling another accused of attempting to breach its naval blockade of Iran. CENTCOM says 12 commercial vessels have been redirected and two disabled for failing to comply.

Tehran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have fired missiles and drones at two of Saudi Arabia’s most strategically important oil facilities on the Red Sea, in a major escalation of the latest simmering regional conflict to be reignited by the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.

But the skies over the country at the epicentre of the widening war were quiet for a second successive night, with no new US attacks on Iran reported by Sunday morning.

Iran had been pounded by 13 consecutive waves of overnight US air strikes since July 11, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked tankers trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. As hostilities escalated, both sides declared that an interim peace agreement signed in June was dead, and a second phase of talks to finalise a comprehensive peace deal appeared doomed.

But there have been no US air strikes since Friday, and tentative signs are emerging that Washington and Tehran are still talking via mediators and might return to more meaningful discussions.

Even if another fragile truce is agreed, however, the cascade of consequences unleashed by the war is still stoking conflict and confrontation elsewhere.

Iran’s attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have put a stranglehold on exports of oil and raw materials for fertiliser, sending energy prices soaring and raising the risk of a food security crisis in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries.

In March, in response to attacks on Iran, the Tehran-backed Hezbollah movement in Lebanon resumed missile attacks on Israel, which then launched a devastating invasion of southern Lebanon that has displaced 1.2 million people.

Now, another smouldering regional conflict has erupted again, between US-allied Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement which controls most of northern and western Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa. Saudi Arabia and its regional allies joined a brutal civil war against the Houthis in 2015, until a truce was agreed in 2022.

Risk of global crisis

The truce collapsed this month after an attack on Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane landing provoked the Houthis to fire ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia. Last Monday, the Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, and late on Friday the Saudis launched air strikes on the Houthi-held city of Hodeidah.

In retaliation, Houthi forces launched Sunday’s attacks on facilities belonging to Saudi state oil giant Aramco in the coastal cities of Jizan and Yanbu, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said.

There has been no comment from Saudi Arabia on the extent of any damage to Aramco’s refinery in Jizan, but a large column of smoke was seen rising after the attack.

In Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s principal west coast export gateway, two ballistic missiles aimed at oil installations were intercepted by a Patriot battery operated in Saudi Arabia by the Greek military under an agreement ‌with Riyadh.

The escalating conflict has raised fears that the Houthis could block the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. If both the Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz straits were blocked, the resulting supply chain crisis would cause major economic damage across the world.

Entangled wars

Besides spreading to the Red Sea, the US-Iran war has become entangled with the deadliest active conflict in the world – Russia’s attempted conquest of Ukraine.

A long-range strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea on Saturday caused an explosion that killed one sailor and wounded another, according to Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which blamed the attack on Ukraine and summoned Kyiv’s charge d’affaires in Tehran to convey its condemnation of the “hostile and criminal” act.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X that Kyiv had achieved “very strong results” with long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea, hitting “vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran, as well as a warship”.

Zelenskyy claimed in further comments on X on Saturday that since the start of July, Kyiv had detected “active Russian satellite ⁠surveillance of the Gulf states and US military facilities located there”. He said the satellite images were passed to Tehran to help the IRGC identify targets for ballistic missile and drone attacks.

US President Donald Trump has not given a reason for the sudden cessation in air strikes on Iran, but a senior administration official told the Reuters news agency that Trump “has always been clear that his preference is diplomacy, but he has shown Iran what will happen if they fail to come to the table in a serious way”.

Trump said on Friday that there was still some communication with Iran.

“They are talking to us right now; they’d love to make a deal,” he said. “I don’t think they’re ready to … but I’m willing to listen.”

Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from Tehran, said Iranian officials had confirmed the two sides were exchanging messages.

“There have been proposals conveyed by the mediators, and Tehran is still reviewing them,” Serdar said, adding there was “not much progress yet” due to “fundamental differences” in their positions and deep mistrust.

Tehran, Iran – A public rift has emerged between Iran’s government and state television over how to portray the state of war and negotiations with the United States, as mediators try to nudge both countries towards diplomacy.

The Government Information Council on Friday accused state broadcaster IRIB of “censorship” after parts of a speech by President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier in the week were not shown to the public.

The broadcaster, whose head is appointed by the supreme leader, issued a response on Saturday rejecting the government’s “accusations and improper attributions”, and emphasised that it has a duty to prevent “an incorrect and unreal suggestion of duality in the country’s leadership pillars”.

In his speech, Pezeshkian had pointed out that after last year’s 12-day war with Israel, former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly said there would be no negotiations with Washington – but privately had given his approval.

“We went to the dear leader, explained the situation, and asked him what to do since he had said the ‘no war, no peace’ conditions are bad for the country,” the president said. “He ordered us to go negotiate. We started the talks based on his order.”

The government said in its statement the move to cut that section of the speech was part of a series of “unusual actions” taken by state television concerning recent comments made by the heads of the government, parliament and judiciary.

It pointed out that earlier this month, a part of the parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s interview with state television dealing with negotiations had also been cut. The government council added that a part of a speech earlier this week by judiciary head Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei was not aired either, in which he expressed backing for the president.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also separately criticised IRIB, saying during an interview with a state-linked outlet released on Saturday that he “fought with a sword” in wartime interviews with US media such as Fox, CNN and others. The chief diplomat said he expected state television to show how Iran’s case was being strongly presented to US audiences and policymakers, but only one or two subtitles from the interviews ended up going on air.

Araghchi also rejected a notion raised by hardliners that the now-suspended memorandum of understanding signed with the US last month was “imposed” on new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, as some hardliners have claimed. He characterised it as the best possible agreement under the circumstances.

In its own statement, the government blamed the actions on “a political faction within” state television, in an apparent reference to the Paydari Front of ultrahardliners, and said their actions could serve to undermine national security and social cohesion.

IRIB, in a statement published by its public relations department, countered that broadcasting the president’s segment would have propagated an appearance of division.

Both sides accused each other of undermining the decree issued last week by Mojtaba Khamenei to reach a “sacred unity” in face of military, economic and diplomatic pressure by the US.

Mohammad Mirzaei, a member of parliament and spokesperson of a committee tasked with exerting oversight on IRIB, said on Saturday that directors of the state broadcaster have been warned about the necessity to display different viewpoints and to act as a “sign of national unity”.

Conservative journalist Mohammad Mohajeri told local media that the broadcaster is now at its most expensive and least effective. Reformist activist Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar described the deeper problem as “one government being installed and another government called IRIB operating against it”.

Reformist Entekhab news outlet reported, citing an unnamed source, that Pezeshkian sharply reprimanded IRIB chief Peyman Jebeli at a cabinet meeting after the row over the negotiations. Jebeli, who was appointed by Ali Khamenei in 2021, was media deputy at the Supreme National Security Council when Saeed Jalili, the only council member said to have voted against an interim deal with the US last month, was its secretary.

Hardline lawmaker Meysam Zohourian said the president has threatened to cut state television’s budget, but the administration has not confirmed this.

As the public sparring unfolded, mediators from Oman were in Tehran on Friday to discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway whose control has become a central point of contention between the US and Iran.

US President Donald Trump argued on Friday the war was going “extremely well” and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit Washington in the coming days.

He said the two sides continued to talk through mediators, but that he did not expect any agreement soon.

The US president also refused to answer whether realising his threat of systematically attacking power plants and bridges in Iran in case of a war escalation would constitute war crimes.

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Saturday responded by saying missile and drone launches across the region will continue “until the full surrender of the enemy” and avenging the blood of civilians killed during the war.

Trump says the US remains ‘locked and loaded’ while pursuing talks with Iran, as Tehran reports strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.

Omani delegation in Iran to discuss managing traffic in the strait, which has become the main focus of the US conflict.

A delegation from Oman has arrived in Iran to discuss options for managing shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, as the United States and Iran continue attacks.

The Omani diplomats arrived in Tehran late on Friday for talks with Iranian officials on mechanisms governing navigation through the strait, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported.

Control over the strait has become the main focus of hostilities between the US and Iran, with the global economy exposed to rising energy prices due to the closure of the strategically important waterway, through which around 20 percent of oil and gas exports were shipped before the outbreak of the conflict.

IRNA said the delegation’s visit was part of ongoing consultations between Iran and Oman. Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a phone call with his Omani counterpart, Badr Albusaidi.

No details regarding the ideas being discussed were released. However, Tehran has maintained throughout the war that it is open to managing the critical waterway in coordination with Oman.

The US and Gulf states have rejected such a setup. However, Oman holds a strategic position at the entrance and exit to the strait and has historically played a mediating role in regional disputes, maintaining diplomatic ties with both Gulf states and Iran.

“Vital waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz, must remain open and accessible for navigation, free from any measures that would impede freedom of navigation and international trade flows,” Albusaidi posted on X.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran exchanged air strikes for the 14th day in a row, despite efforts to rekindle diplomacy aimed at persuading both to implement the Memorandum of Understanding. It achieved a pause in fighting last month but collapsed, largely due to differences over what was agreed regarding freedom of navigation in the strait.

The crisis has only deepened since Houthi rebels in Yemen declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on Monday, opening a new front.

On Friday, Iran’s military claimed further attacks on US bases across the region, which have been the main target for its fire during the hostilities.

Attacks were reported on bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, while a drone crash near Iraq’s Erbil International Airport forced the temporary suspension of flights.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said they targeted US tech giant Amazon’s data centre in Bahrain for “providing intelligence support for the American child-killing army”.

The Houthis have also reportedly continued to target Saudi tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait. However, a Houthi spokesman denied the group has shut down the waterway.

The US Central Command said it had concluded air strikes on Iran. Iranian media reported four people were injured in blasts in several cities, including Khorramabad, Jask, Ahvaz and Bandar Abbas, as well as Qeshm Island.

Iran’s Health Ministry said at least 55 people have been killed in recent US attacks and nearly 650 injured.

The United States has continued to attack Iran for a 13th consecutive night on Thursday and explosions were reported in multiple Iranian cities on Friday morning.

In addition to the ongoing attacks, shipping disruptions continue to intensify. Ship tracking data revealed that just one tanker successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the lowest level since May 7.

However, shipping data from London Stock Exchange Group shows that two Chinese supertankers carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia successfully exited the Bab al-Mandeb strait on Friday. This is despite the naval blockade Yemen’s Houthis announced against Saudi Arabia on Monday.

Here is a recap of what happened on Thursday night and Friday.

Where did the US attack Iran?

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that at 01:00 GMT on Friday, it concluded its latest round of strikes against Iran.

CENTCOM said it targeted Iranian military command centres, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites and maritime capabilities.

On Friday, Iranian media reported explosions or attacks across multiple Iranian cities. State broadcaster IRIB reported that explosions were reported in Khondab, Khorramabad, Konarak and Jask. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported that two people have been injured following an early morning drone attack on Khorramabad, citing the deputy governor of the western Lorestan province.

Iran’s Mehr news agency reported on Friday that US missile strikes hit the cities of Andimeshk and Omidiyeh in the Khuzestan province. There were no casualties or injuries.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Assidi reported from the Iranian capital, Tehran, that explosions were heard on Qeshm island, located in the Strait of Hormuz, on Friday.

Attacks on the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas have injured two people, Iranian media reported on Friday.

Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Friday that four people were killed and five others were injured in a US missile attack near the southwestern city of Ahvaz.

Where did Iran strike in the Gulf?

Bahrain: In a statement carried by Iran’s Mehr news agency, the Iranian army said it used drones to target fuel storage tanks, equipment warehouses and troop living quarters at Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain.

Jordan: The military added that aircraft hangars, maintenance facilities and accommodation sites at the Muwaffaq Salti/Al-Azraq base in Jordan were also hit, warning that any actions against Iran’s interests would undermine regional security and economic stability.

What have leaders on either side said?

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump stepped up his rhetoric against Tehran. He told the US news website Axios that he may launch the largest strikes on Iran yet, after Tehran carried out another wave of retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Gulf, including hitting a telecommunications tower in Kuwait.

Trump said he was “considering a massive attack” that would be “bigger than ever before”.

“I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it,” Trump said.

Separately, Trump threatened, on his Truth Social platform, that if Iran attacked ships, the US would use Tehran’s frozen assets to pay for repairs.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Friday that using frozen state assets to pay for future claims sets a dangerous global precedent.

“Seizing another nation’s assets to pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent,” Araghchi wrote on X.

He cautioned that “those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful”.

President Trump says damages will be paid for by Iranian money that the US has ‘in its possession, and controls’.

United States President Donald Trump has pledged to use frozen Iranian assets to pay for any damage to ships and cargo in the Strait of Hormuz, garnering strong condemnation from Tehran.

Tensions between Iran and the US have escalated since the beginning of July as the two sides trade attacks and Tehran targets US military bases in the region.

Washington completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran late on Thursday, with Trump saying he is considering a “massive attack” on the country, “bigger than ever before”.

Writing on his Truth Social platform on Thursday, Trump said that damages would be paid for by “Iranian Money that the United States has in its possession, and controls”.

“These damages may be very substantial but, nevertheless, this is the fair and equitable thing to do,” Trump added.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi condemned Trump’s comments and said in a post on X on Friday morning that seizing another country’s assets to “pay for unrelated future claims is an incendiary precedent”.

“Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful,” he added.

The case of Iran’s frozen assets has been an issue that the two sides had been discussing in the now-collapsed memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreement that was signed between Tehran and Washington in June as a pathway to end the war.

But the US and other governments have “frozen” Iranian assets for decades.

While the exact amount of frozen money belonging to Iran is not known, some estimates put it at about $100bn.

Washington first froze Iranian funds in 1979 after US citizens were taken hostage at the US embassy in Tehran.

At the same time, Trump pledged “major military punishment” for Iran and its Houthi allies on Thursday after the Yemeni fighters struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.

But on Friday morning, the Iranian army announced in a statement carried by the state Mehr News Agency that it had launched a new wave of drone attacks on US military installations in Bahrain and Jordan.

Moreover, ship tracking data seen by the Reuters news agency found that the number of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz fell to just one on Thursday, the lowest level since May 7.

A $1.15 trillion US defence bill passed by the House includes plans to expand military cooperation with Israel through joint work on missile defence, drones and AI. Critics warn the move could deepen ties amid growing political divisions over aid to Israel.

EDITOR’S ANALYSIS

Houthi blockade for now is shaping who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves, analysts say, even as oil prices soar.

As oil prices hit $100 a barrel on Thursday, experts say they are watching to see which vessels Yemen’s Houthis allow to pass through in the Red Sea as that will indicate how the crude market trends.

Brent futures rose $6.58 or 6.96 percent, to $100.65 a barrel, exceeding $100 for the first time since late May.

That was on the back of the Iran-aligned Houthis saying they were cutting off the passage Riyadh had been using to ship parts of its crude oil once Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against United States and Israel attacks.

On Monday, the Yemeni group declared a naval blockade on shipments from Saudi Arabia and said they would target Saudi, Israeli, and United States-linked tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb, which links the Red sea to the Indian Ocean.

On Thursday, the Houthis attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers, the group said, with a Saudi news agency later confirming that one of the two vessels was set ablaze.

It is not clear if the second one was also hit, according to marine analysis firm, Windward.

“The Houthis are quite mercurial and there is no complete clarity on what the blockade means,” said Michelle Bockmann, a senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

“We’re watching now the ability of Chinese-owned tankers at [Saudi port] Yanbu if they are allowed to go through Bab el-Mandeb. Two have gone through but those had been loaded before the blockade was announced.”

The Houthis have previously relied on China for help, including for drone components, and “the Chinese have previously had a free pass”, said Bockmann, including between 2023 and 2025 when the Houthis attacked cargo ships aligned with Israel and the US in the Red Sea in the wake of the war on Gaza.

Windward tracking shows the cargo that moved through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint on July 20 was Saudi in origin but Chinese in crew and destination, and it drew no interdiction. The two vessels passed through the same corridor that Western- and Saudi-linked operators were being warned to avoid.

The enforcement is calibrated to affiliation rather than cargo and the blockade is shaping who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves, Windward said.

“No one has ever been able to predict their actions… but they know you don’t have to do a lot to get the oil markets to react,” said Bockmann referring to the rise in benchmark oil prices on Thursday.

Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, underscored that the standoff in Bab el-Mandeb is happening while crude buffers have nor been replenished after the peak of the Hormuz crisis earlier this year.

“The multiple chokepoints are new and an example of littoral states looking to use their leverage,” Ziemba said.

Diesel also impacted

For now, both the Houthi threats and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil transited before the US-Israel war on Iran, has sent prices soaring, including at the pump in the US reaching the national average of $4.09 per gallon (3.4 liter).

“Today’s rise in oil prices could cause $0.10 to $0.20 rise over the next week or two per gallon average price in US,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

But De Haan is looking beyond the two straits and says he’s watching the availability of diesel as price per gallon averages $5.34.

“Diesel prices are being impacted more significantly,” he told Al Jazeera.

One reason behind that is that Ukrainian drone attacks have taken offline some of Russia’s oil refineries. The shortages are being felt domestically leading to Russia banning diesel exports, De Haan said.

“Oil exports are one story, but supplies of diesel gasoline, jet fuel is another story,” he said.

Another unknown in the mix is the role of China which, historically has been a major importer but slashed those imports in the past few months, helping stabilise global prices as some pressure on demand eased.

“It’s been one of the reasons that oil prices haven’t gone up dramatically – that china slashed its imports, and no one predicted that,” De Haan said. “For now, we don’t know if china is using its own strategic reserves or if it will start import again.”

Between those geopolitical plays and the upcoming hurricane season in the US, there is “another wildcard ahead for global refining capacity” and prices, De Haan said.

Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi reports from Tehran as the US launches strikes for the 13th consecutive night. Iranian leaders are warning further attacks could lead to retaliation targeting Gulf nations.

A US Democratic Congressman challenges UN Ambassador Mike Waltz during a congressional hearing, playing an Al Jazeera video to question troop safety in Jordan. Some lawmakers do not trust the Trump administration to be open about the danger posed by Iranian strikes on US bases.