US-Israel attack on Iran 2026

Published on 18/03/2026 – 16:20 GMT+1•Updated
16:25

Brent crude oil prices reached $110 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, after Iranian state media reported that part of the South Pars gas field, the largest plant in Iran, and the Asaluyeh oil facility were struck by Israel.

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Moreover, the US oil benchmark WTI also rose and is trading at $98 a barrel at the time of writing.

In response to the latest Israeli attacks, the IRGC announced that some Gulf energy sites are once again “legitimate targets”.

The prospect of escalation and prolongation of the conflict in the Middle East, resulting in further destruction of energy infrastructure, and consequently disruption to global markets, has sent oil prices higher once again.

The climb occurs despite other positive news that would normally have a dampening effect on energy markets.

Saudi Arabia confirmed on Wednesday that its biggest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, restarted operations on 13 March.

Additionally, the Trump administration officially announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old maritime law that restricts the movement of cargo between US ports to vessels that are American-built, American-owned, American-flagged and crewed.

However, in the face of increased tensions and more attacks on oil infrastructure, these potentially mitigating developments have not had any effect in taming prices.

Trump administration confirms Jones Act waiver

The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed the Trump administration’s decision to issue a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act.

The measure lifts the restriction on the movement of cargo between US ports, allowing foreign tankers temporarily and cheaply to transport vital resources such as oil, gas and fertilisers along the US coastline.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Leavitt explained that the decision is “just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the US military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.”

The last Jones Act waiver was issued in October 2022 for a tanker supplying Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona.

Before that, the Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy, after a cyberattack crippled a major East Coast fuel pipeline.

Trump renews pressure on allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz

In a separate development, US President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on allies to join a naval escort mission in order to secure the Strait of Hormuz and normalise the circulation of vessels in the region.

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump argued that allied countries need to use the Strait of Hormuz while the US does not, and warned that they could be left managing it on their own in the aftermath of the war.

Since President Trump’s original request, no firm commitments have emerged, but on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to join the escort mission.

The report also stated that officials are still deliberating whether such an operation would start before or after the war ends.

After meeting in Brussels, EU foreign ministers discussed extending the bloc’s Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz, but ultimately declined to participate.

The global energy landscape is facing its most volatile period in decades following the US-Israeli strikes against Iran on 28 February that triggered a wider and potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

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What began as a targeted military operation has rapidly escalated into a direct confrontation with global economic implications.

Based on claims by Iranian state media and regional reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has ostensibly adopted a strategy of “energy blackmail” to leverage the international community into pressuring the US and Israel to cease its attacks.

The $200 per oil barrel threat was first articulated shortly after the conflict began.

On Sunday 1 March, a senior IRGC spokesperson warned that if “cowardly anti-human actions” continued, the world should prepare for a massive price surge, even as high as $200 per oil barrel.

This rhetoric has since become a central pillar of Tehran’s messaging.

As recently as this Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, told state media: “Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200, because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised.”

Iran’s tactical disruption

The IRGC’s current strategy relies on “internationalising” the cost of the conflict.

By disrupting the flow of nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran aims to drag the global economy into the fray.

This is why the IRGC has targeted vessels from neutral nations, including ships sailing under Thai, Japanese and Marshall Islands flags, among others.

According to energy analysts, this disruption is designed to create domestic political pressure within Western nations, to in turn force the US and Israel to pull back on military action in exchange for energy stability.

By striking countries that have not attacked them directly, Tehran is signaling that no maritime trade is safe as long as the strikes on its soil continue.

The main vector of this strategy is precisely the disruption of energy markets, an element Iran can influence directly through its geographical advantage.

A history of oil price shocks

While $200 per barrel sounds astronomical, oil has approached similar levels in the past when adjusted for inflation.

The highest nominal price ever recorded was around $147 in 2008, driven by peak oil fears and rampant speculation just before the global financial crisis. When adjusted for 2026 inflation, that 2008 peak represents roughly $211 per barrel.

Previous major shocks, such as the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, saw prices quadruple and double respectively from pre-crisis levels.

In 1980, prices hit a nominal peak of about $39.50, which would be approximately $160 in today’s terms.

However, the current crisis involves a total physical blockade of one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, increasing the risk of a price “moonshot”.

Market response and reserves

At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading just above $100 per barrel, a sharp increase from the $60 range seen in mid-February before the Iran war began.

The International Energy Agency has attempted to stabilise the market by orchestrating the largest-ever coordinated release of strategic reserves, but the continuation of Iranian strikes agaisnt oil infrastructure and tankers has largely neutralised the effort.

With insurance providers cancelling war-risk coverage and shipping companies redirecting fleets, the market remains in a state of high anxiety.

If the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz persists, the $200 figure may shift from a political threat to an increasingly likely scenario.

In a recent report, Oxford Economics identified $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

Brent futures rose sharply on Thursday, spiking above $100 before easing slightly but remaining higher than levels seen earlier in the week as markets stay incredibly volatile.

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This comes despite an unprecedented decision by the 32-member International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday to release a record 400 million barrels to calm markets, more than double the volume released after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Following the IEA decision, Iran stepped up its offensive campaign and launched strikes on Omani oil storage facilities at the Salalah port and multiple ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz, sending prices higher again.

Record coordinated release of reserves

The US alone is contributing 172 million barrels. Germany, France and Italy also confirmed they would tap their stocks, while Japan said it would begin releases next Monday.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol described the current Iran-related crisis as an “oil market challenge unprecedented in scale”, adding that the collective response reflected “strong solidarity” in defence of global energy security.

Exports of crude and refined products from the region have dropped to 10-15% of pre-war levels, with the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil, effectively closed to the large majority of tankers.

Iran’s attacks blunt expected price relief

The new Iranian strikes came at lightning speed, directly after the IEA announcement.

Drones targeted fuel storage tanks and silos at Oman’s Salalah port, igniting fires that Omani authorities were still working to contain late on Wednesday.

British maritime security firm Ambrey confirmed damage to the facilities, while Danish shipping giant Maersk temporarily halted port operations.

Omani officials stressed there had been “no disruption to the continuity of oil supplies or petroleum derivatives” inside the country itself, while Iranian state media reported that President Pezeshkian had assured Oman’s sultan the incident would be investigated.

At the same time, six vessels were struck in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

Among the reports, there was confirmation of a projectile hitting a container ship near the UAE and strikes on two tankers in Iraqi waters.

UK Maritime Trade Operations, and other monitoring groups, attributed the incidents to Iranian forces or proxies.

These developments, occurring the very day of the reserves release, appear to have smothered the anticipated calming effect on prices.

As of Thursday, the number of ships struck in the region since the beginning of the conflict rose to at least sixteen.

Record release may signal deeper market concerns

Some analysts note that the sheer volume of the release could itself be interpreted negatively. Previous coordinated actions never exceeded 183 million barrels.

The scale of the release suggests importing nations already view the disruption as the most severe and long-lasting in decades.

Even worse, a record release may not be enough.

Speaking to Euronews, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, was blunt in his assessment.

“A record 400 million barrel release from emergency reserves is helpful, but it’s not going to go very far to offset the roughly 15 million daily supply currently disrupted.”

Patterson also added that “the only solution that will bring oil prices down on a sustained basis is getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.”

Oxford Economics echoes this concern, warning that “the economic effect of higher energy costs rises as the oil price increases,” in a report that seemingly indicates the crisis is far from over and we have yet to feel the compounding effect of the initial shock.

Russian sanctions relief remains off the table

With the reserve release failing to calm prices, attention has turned to Russian oil as a potential source of additional supply.

The US Treasury last week granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian crude from vessels already stranded at sea, though the measure expires on 4 April and deliberately excludes new shipments.

Following the G7 emergency discussions on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the group had agreed “the situation does not justify lifting any sanctions” on Russia, emphasising the need to increase global production instead.

The contrast between Washington’s narrow waiver and the G7’s firm collective position leaves little prospect of sanctions relief acting as a meaningful pressure valve, a view shared by analysts.

“Any sanction relief for Russia would see some marginal supply increases, but again not enough, with Russia’s oil output having held up well in recent years despite sanctions,” Warren Patterson of ING told Euronews.

$140-$150 oil barrel possible if conflict is prolonged

Should tensions persist, analysts warn prices could climb substantially higher.

Oxford Economics identifies $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

The managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, also stated that every 10% increase in oil prices, provided they persist for most of the year, will push up global inflation by 0.4% and reduce worldwide economic output by as much as 0.2%.

“The risk is stark,” Patterson warned. “It’s only a matter of time before we see oil prices hitting fresh record highs if the conflict is not swiftly and decisively resolved.”

The IEA’s intervention has provided a temporary buffer, but with little visible impact on prices.

Published on
11/03/2026 – 16:15 GMT+1

A probe has been initiated by the US Justice Department into Iran’s use of Binance, the world’s largest crypto platform, to circumvent US sanctions and provide financial backing to terrorist organisations with ties to the IRGC, according to The Wall Street Journal.

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The US DOJ’s examination stems from company documents and accounts provided by individuals familiar with the matter.

Authorities have contacted people with direct knowledge of the Iranian-linked transactions to request interviews and collect evidence, as per the WSJ report.

A monitor appointed by the US Treasury Department has reportedly asked Binance for details on the Iranian transactions, including information about a business partner responsible for a large share of the flows.

At this stage, it remains uncertain whether the investigation targets Binance for any potential misconduct or if it is confined to activity by customers on the platform.

A spokesperson for the company told the WSJ that Binance “categorically did not directly transact with any sanctioned entities”.

This development brings the company back to the centre of US regulatory attention, just months after its founder received a presidential pardon, highlighting persistent challenges in enforcing sanctions within the rapidly evolving crypto and fintech sectors.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, was pardoned by President Trump back in October.

The investigation reopens scrutiny of the exchange, which pleaded guilty in 2023 to breaching US sanctions and banking laws. That case resulted in a record $4.3bn (€3.7bn) penalty and a requirement for ongoing US oversight.

Under the terms of the 2023 agreement, Binance must actively screen clients for terrorism financing and sanctions breaches, as well as report suspicious activity promptly to authorities.

US congressional inquiry adds pressure

The developments have also drawn attention from Capitol Hill.

US Senator Richard Blumenthal, a senior Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Committee, opened a formal inquiry last month into Binance’s handling of the Iranian transactions.

Citing the scale of the unreported flows, approaching nearly $2bn (€1.7bn) to sanctioned entities, and the suspension of internal investigators, Blumenthal questioned whether the exchange had met its obligations under US sanctions and banking laws.

He requested detailed records from Binance, which responded by describing media coverage as inaccurate and highlighting its “best-in-class compliance programme”.

The senator later described that reply as evasive and insufficient to address his concerns.

The timing of the US DOJ’s probe coincides with heightened efforts to disrupt financing networks linked to Iran’s IRGC.

Ahead of joint military actions with Israel against Iran, Washington stepped up measures to cut off revenue streams, particularly those involving crypto assets used to repatriate proceeds from oil sales to China.

In January, the US Treasury Department sanctioned two smaller crypto exchanges for moving large sums to digital wallets connected to the IRGC.

Published on 09/03/2026 – 17:06 GMT+1•Updated
17:14

G7 finance ministers discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves on Monday but failed to reach agreement, with France’s Roland Lescure saying the group was “not there yet” on a deal.

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The G7 was exploring a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to tamp down fears of an impending shortage but stopped short of a deal.

Japan’s finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) explicitly requested the coordinated release during the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.

Brent crude briefly hit $119.50 a barrel on Monday morning, its highest level since 2022, having jumped roughly 25% since Friday as the Iran war intensified, raising fears over global production and shipping.

At the time of writing, oil prices pared gains and are trading slightly below $100 a barrel, as markets remain highly volatile.

Stock markets fell worldwide on concerns the global economy would not be able to absorb a sustained oil price shock.

Equity markets drop over uncertainty

At the open on Monday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, coming off its worst week since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5% and the Nasdaq composite 1.2% lower.

The most immediate pain on Wall Street is hitting companies with large fuel bills. Carnival lost 7.3%, United Airlines sank 6.9% and Old Dominion Freight fell 3.8%.

Retailers dependent on long-haul shipping, whose customers are also facing higher petrol costs, also struggled. Best Buy fell 4.4% and Williams-Sonoma dropped 4%.

The moves followed steeper losses in European and Asian markets, where economies are more exposed to imported oil and gas. South Korea’s Kospi sank 6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 5.2% and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 1%.

Potential stagflation scenario

Since the war with Iran began, the central worry for financial markets has been how high oil prices will go and how long they will stay there.

If prices stay very high for very long, household budgets already stretched by high inflation could break under the pressure.

Meanwhile, companies would see their own bills jump for key items such as fuel and stock items, as well as for powering their data centres.

It all raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, or a period when economic growth stagnates and inflation remains persistently high.

Late on Sunday, President Donald Trump countered this narrative by assuring that high oil prices at the moment are both worth the cost and only temporary.

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and world, safety and peace,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.15%, where it ended Friday.

Worries about high inflation and oil prices are applying upward pressure on Treasury yields, while risks of a slowing economy are pulling in the opposite direction.

Concerns about stagflation deepened on Friday following a surprisingly weak US jobs report showing that employers cut more jobs last month than they added.

When President Trump announced the initial wave of US and Israeli strikes on Iran at 8:30 a.m. CET on Saturday 28 February, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury, all traditional financial markets were closed.

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Most markets operate Monday to Friday only, meaning weekend developments, however significant, cannot be priced in until trading resumes on Monday morning, creating a bottleneck of reaction at the open.

US equities, futures, major foreign-exchange platforms, commodity markets, Asian and European bourses were all closed on Saturday.

Middle Eastern exchanges, such as those in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, opened on the second day of the conflict, as they trade Sunday to Thursday, but these attract fewer Western participants and, consequently, lack liquidity.

In the past, investors facing such a major geopolitical shock on a Saturday would have been forced to wait until US futures reopened Sunday evening to start pricing in an expectedly chaotic Monday.

Crypto never sleeps

This time, however, they had a genuine alternative — crypto-based platforms that trade 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and 365 days a year, are globally accessible and settle transactions almost instantly.

The standout choice was Hyperliquid, a decentralised perpetuals exchange that offers contracts not only on cryptocurrencies but also on real-world assets including crude oil.

According to on-chain data, trading volume on the platform spiked sharply, reaching peaks near $200mn (€172mn) in a single 24-hour period on Saturday.

The oil-linked perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid, such as OIL/USDH and USOIL/USDH, rose more than 5% almost immediately after the US-Israeli strikes were announced, providing one of the first real-time price signals before traditional markets reopened.

Hyperliquid contracts were not the only instruments drawing attention.

Tether’s XAUT, a token fully backed by physical gold held in vaults, saw its 24-hour trading volume exceed $300mn (€258mn) — a remarkable figure for a weekend.

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket also posted massive volumes, while Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto tokens were sold off as proxy assets for broader negative risk sentiment.

For the first time in many observers’ memories, crypto markets were effectively “the market” during the weekend.

In a memo published on Tuesday, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, described it as “the weekend that changed finance”.

Critics will point out that crypto markets remain smaller and more volatile than their traditional counterparts, and that regulatory and operational risks persist.

However, the events of the past weekend showed that on-chain finance is moving from the fringes to the core of global capital markets far faster than most forecasts anticipated even six months ago.

Traditional exchanges accelerate push for 24/7 trading

The success of crypto platforms during the Iran conflict adds to the pressure already felt by legacy financial institutions to follow suit and provide perpetually open markets.

The New York Stock Exchange, owned by Intercontinental Exchange, is actively developing a blockchain-based alternative trading system for tokenised equities and exchange-traded funds that would enable genuine 24/7 trading with instant settlement.

Announced in early 2026 and still subject to regulatory approval, the platform would combine NYSE’s existing matching engine with private blockchain networks for post-trade processing.

Trades could be funded and settled in real time using stablecoins, bypassing the T+1 settlement cycle, which dictates the transfer of securities and the corresponding payment must be completed by the next business day and still governs equity markets.

The tokenised venue has a potential launch window as early as the second quarter of 2026, with broader 22 to 23-hour weekday trading on NYSE targeted for later in the year or early 2027, subject to coordination with the SEC, DTCC and market-data providers.

Nasdaq has filed similar proposals to extend US equities trading to 23 hours a day, five days a week, with an anticipated rollout in the second half of 2026.

These moves represent a direct response to the competitive pressure exerted by always-on crypto venues and the growing frequency of market-moving events that occur outside traditional hours.

The Iran weekend served as a vivid case study.

With hedge funds and proprietary traders already active on Hyperliquid and other decentralised platforms, established exchanges recognise that failing to offer comparable access risks losing order flow permanently.

Tokenisation provides the technological bridge, allowing continuous trading while preserving existing regulatory safeguards around custody, dividends and shareholder rights.

Crypto market bill stalls despite Trump backing

While the crypto infrastructure demonstrated its resilience over the weekend, progress on the legislative front remains frustratingly slow.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, known as the CLARITY Act, passed in the US Congress last year with strong bipartisan support but has since become bogged down in the Senate.

The primary sticking point is friction between the banking and crypto sectors over the treatment of stablecoin yields under the separate GENIUS Act, which established the first federal framework for stablecoin issuers.

Banks argue that yield-bearing stablecoins could drain deposits, and they have lobbied to close perceived loopholes.

Crypto proponents counter that such rewards are essential for customer retention and innovation.

On Tuesday, President Trump weighed in directly via Truth Social.

“The Genius Act is being threatened and undermined by the banks, and that is unacceptable — we are not going to allow it. The U.S. needs to get market structure done, asap.”

Moreover, President Trump further sided with the crypto sector by stating that “The banks are hitting record profits, and we are not going to allow them to undermine our powerful crypto agenda that will end up going to China, and other countries, if we don’t get the Clarity Act taken care of.”

Despite the presidential intervention and earlier White House meetings between the two industries, no resolution has been reached.

The Senate Banking and Agriculture committees continue to advance differing drafts, and a full vote remains elusive.

With the bill effectively stalled, market participants are left without the regulatory certainty many had hoped would arrive before the end of the first quarter.

The irony is not lost on observers. While crypto markets proved their worth during a real-world crisis, the very legislation designed to integrate them safely into the traditional system remains hostage to lobbying battles.

Until a resolution is achieved, the speed of innovation will continue to outstrip the pace of rulemaking — a dynamic the Iran weekend has only made more apparent.