Ukraine

Dec. 18 (UPI) — European leaders have agreed to continue funding Ukraine in its fight against Russia with a two-year, $105 billion loan to provide the embattled nation with munitions and other material in the ongoing war, the latest battle of which has dragged on since 2022.

European leaders failed to agree on the first choice to arm Ukraine, using frozen Russian state assets as backing for the loan.

The plan to use frozen Russian assets to back the loan fell apart in the final moments, a schism that risked making the EU appear indecisive at a critical moment in negotiations.

European leaders announced Thursday that they will instead use money from the EU budget to fund Ukraine’s defense effort. As a result, the backup plan could be more costly and difficult to mobilize than the original plan to leverage the stash of Russian money currently frozen in Europe.

European leaders said since the end result is the same, getting funds to Kyiv, they celebrated it as a victory.

“This will address the urgent financial needs of Ukraine,” Antonio Costa, the president of the European Council, said at a media briefing in Brussels.

Partly because of a cut in funding from the United States, Ukraine is facing a $160 billion shortfall over the next two years, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The EU sought to fill about $105 billion of that gap.

Costa added that the EU will reserve its right to use frozen Russian assets for continued funding in the future.

These are the key developments from day 1,394 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Friday, December 19:

Fighting

• Three people, including two crew members of a cargo vessel, were killed in overnight Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian port of Rostov-on-Don and the town of Bataysk in the country’s southern Rostov region, local governor Yury Slyusar said.
• Russian strikes near Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa killed a woman in her car and hit infrastructure. Odesa’s Governor Oleh Kiper said a Russian drone killed a woman crossing a bridge in her car, and three children were injured in the incident.
• Kiper also asked residents whose homes have been affected by extended power outages to be patient and to end blocking roads in protest against the blackouts.
• “As a result of enemy attacks, the energy infrastructure in Odesa region has suffered extensive damage,” Kiper said.
• About 180,000 consumers have been left without electricity across five Ukrainian regions after Russian attacks, Ukraine’s acting energy minister, Artem Nekrasov, said.
• Nekrasov said the southern regions of Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia, the central regions of Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk, and the northeastern region of Sumy have been impacted.
• Russia has formed a military brigade equipped with Moscow’s new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile, Russian chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov, said.
• Russia fired the Oreshnik at Ukraine for the first time in November 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has boasted that the missile is impossible to intercept and has destructive power comparable to that of a nuclear weapon.

Sanctions

• European Union leaders have agreed in principle at a summit in Brussels to work on financing Ukraine in 2026 and 2027 through the use of frozen Russian assets rather than EU borrowing, Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.
• EU leaders were still trying to overcome differences over the plan, with talks in Brussels focused on seeking to reassure Belgium, which holds most of the frozen assets, and other concerned countries, that Europe would share the legal and financial risks resulting from the initiative.
• A new draft of the deal offered Belgium and other countries unlimited guarantees for damages should Moscow successfully sue them for using Russian assets to finance Ukraine.
• Diplomats said the deal could be a problem for some governments, who would need parliamentary approval. The new draft also offered EU countries and institutions, whose assets may be seized by Russia in retaliation, the possibility to offset such damages against Russian assets held by the EU.
• The text of the draft deal also offered a mechanism of unconditional, irrevocable, on-demand guarantees that the EU would swiftly repay the Russian central bank assets in all circumstances should the need arise.
• Russia’s central bank has said it will extend legal action beyond its lawsuit against Belgium-based depository Euroclear and sue European banks in a Russian court over attempts the EU’s plans to use frozen Russian assets as loans for Kyiv.
• Britain has imposed more sanctions targeting Russian oil companies, including 24 individuals and entities, in what it described as a move against Russia’s largest remaining unsanctioned oil companies: Tatneft, Russneft, NNK-Oil and Rusneftegaz.

Peace talks

• Ukrainian peace negotiators are en route to the United States and plan to meet Washington’s negotiating team on Friday and Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
• US President Donald Trump said he believes talks to end the war in Ukraine are “getting close to something” as Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner plan to meet a Russian delegation in Miami this weekend.

Aid

• The Ukraine-US reconstruction fund, established as part of a Trump-pushed minerals deal the two countries signed in April, has approved its asset policies and is poised to begin reviewing its first investment opportunities in 2026, the US body overseeing the fund said.
• The Development Finance Corporation (DFC) said the fund’s second meeting “reached final consensus necessary to bring the fund to full operational status”. Potential deals could focus on critical minerals extraction and energy development as well as on maritime infrastructure, the DFC said.
• Ukraine is facing a foreign aid shortfall of 45-50 billion euros ($53-$59bn) in 2026, President Zelenskyy said, adding that if Kyiv did not receive a first tranche of a loan secured by Russian assets by next spring, it would have to cut drone production.
• Ukraine has clinched a long-awaited deal to restructure $2.6bn of growth-linked debt, with creditors overwhelmingly accepting a bonds-and-cash swap offer – a key step for the country to emerge from the sovereign default it suffered in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Politics and diplomacy

• President Zelenskyy said he saw no need to change Ukraine’s constitution enshrining its aim to become a NATO member state. A block on Ukraine joining the military alliance has been a core Russian demand to end its war.
• “To be honest, I don’t think we need to change our country’s constitution,” Zelenskyy said. “Certainly not because of calls from the Russian Federation or anyone else,” he said.
• Earlier this week, Zelenskyy said Ukraine could compromise on NATO membership if given bilateral security guarantees with protections similar to NATO’s Article 5, which considers an attack on one member as an attack against all.
• Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsya met Chinese foreign ministerial aide Liu Bin in Beijing, where the pair “discussed ways to strengthen trade and economic cooperation, and issues of co-operation within international organisations”, the Foreign Ministry said.

Russian affairs

• Sergei Yeremeyev, a Belarusian man accused by Russia of blowing up two trains in Siberia for Ukraine, has been jailed for 22 years. Yeremeyev was found guilty of carrying out an act of terrorism and of planting explosives on two freight trains in 2023.
• British man Hayden Davies, who fought for Ukraine against Russia, has been sentenced to 13 years in a maximum security prison camp after being convicted of being a paid mercenary, Russian prosecutors said. The 30-year-old was tried by a court in a part of Russian-controlled Donetsk.

In the quiet village of Kozubivka in Ukraine’s Poltava region, Nelia and her husband Oleksandr open their home to people displaced from Kharkiv, where bombing and shelling have forced thousands to flee.

But rebuilding a life in rural Ukraine is not easy. City people must learn to navigate unfamiliar routines on the farm, endure physical labour and bear the emotional weight of displacement. In the process tempers flare despite moments of tenderness.

Through these intimate encounters, Guests from Kharkiv reveals what it means to create community in the middle of a war and the courage it takes to adapt to a new way of life.

A documentary short by Halyna Lavrinets, produced by Eleron Pictures.

A Briton who fought in Ukraine has been sentenced to 13 years in a maximum-security prison, the Russian Prosecutor-General’s office has said.

Hayden Davies, a former British soldier who Russia has called a mercenary, was reportedly captured in Ukraine’s Donbas region in late 2024 or early 2025 while serving with the country’s foreign legion.

He was tried in a Russian-controlled court in the city of Donetsk, which is currently occupied by Moscow.

The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) said it strongly condemned the sentencing of Mr Davies “on false charges”, adding he was a prisoner of war.

It said: “We remain in close contact with Mr Davies’ family and are providing consular support.”

The FCDO said that under international law, prisoners of war cannot be prosecuted for participating in hostilities.

It added: “We demand that Russia respect these obligations, including those under the Geneva Conventions, and stop using prisoners of war for political and propaganda purposes.”

In a statement, Russian prosecutors said Mr Davies joined the Ukrainian army in August 2024 and “took part in military operations against the Russian armed forces on the territory of [Donetsk Region]”.

In court footage released by prosecutors, a man with a British accent speaks via a translator from inside a barred cage, which is standard practice for many Russian hearings.

The man said he was a member of the Ukrainian Army’s foreign legion and travelled to Ukraine by bus via Poland.

He said he was paid $400 (£300) or $500 a month as a salary. When asked if he pleaded guilty to the charge, the man said “yeah” and nodded his head.

It is not clear whether he was speaking under duress.

Earlier this year, the FCDO also criticised the case brought against James Anderson, another Briton captured fighting with Ukraine forces, after he was jailed for 19 years for terrorism and mercenary activity.

The 22-year-old was the first British national to be convicted by Russia during the war.

These are the key developments from day 1,392 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Wednesday, December 17:

Fighting

• Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko said explosions were heard in the Ukrainian capital and warned people to stay in shelters late on Tuesday night as air defences worked to repel a Russian attack.
• Russian forces launched a “massive” drone attack on Ukraine’s Sumy region, targeting energy infrastructure and causing electricity blackouts, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on Telegram late on Tuesday night.
• Power outages were also reported in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Energy Mykola Kolisnyk said.
• A Russian attack on electrical substations and other energy infrastructure left 280,000 households in Ukraine’s Odesa region without power, Governor Oleh Kiper wrote on Telegram.
• Electricity was later restored to 220,000 homes, Kiper said, but extensive work was still needed to repair damaged networks.

• The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is currently receiving electricity through only one of two external power lines, the facility’s Russian management said, after the other line was disconnected due to military activity.

• Russian forces shot down 180 Ukrainian drones in one day, Russia’s Ministry of Defence said, according to the state-run TASS news agency.
• The ambassador-at-large of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Rodion Miroshnik, told TASS that Ukrainian attacks had killed 14 Russian civilians and injured nearly 70, including in the Russian-occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia regions of Ukraine, over the past week.

Ceasefire talks

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz shared details about a potential European-led multinational force being considered as part of discussions on security guarantees for Ukraine.
• “We would secure a demilitarised zone between the warring parties and, to be very specific, we would also act against corresponding Russian incursions and attacks,” Merz told ZDF public television, adding that the talks “we’re not there yet”.

Regional security

• Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden said in a joint statement on Tuesday that “Russia is the most significant, direct and long-term threat to our security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area”.
• After the Eastern Flank Summit in Helsinki, Finland, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the grouping of European countries discussed an “anti-drone wall” that would require “billions in expenditure here”.
• Germany’s Federal Ministry of Defence said that it ended the deployment to Poland of its Patriot systems and soldiers from its Air and Missile Defence Task Force, after the mission concluded as planned.
• UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey said the United Kingdom is spending 600 million pounds (more than $800 million) to buy “thousands of air defence systems, missiles, and automated turrets to shoot down drones” for Ukraine, during a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, according to the Kyiv Independent news outlet.
• German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius told the same meeting that Germany would “transfer a significant number of AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles” to Ukraine next year.

Reparations

• The leaders of 34 European countries signed an agreement in The Hague to create an International Claims Commission for Ukraine to seek compensation for hundreds of billions of dollars in damage from Russian attacks.
• “Every Russian war crime must have consequences for those who committed them,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said before signing the agreement.
• “The goal is to have validated claims that will ultimately be paid by Russia. It will really have to be paid by Russia,” Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs  David van Weel said.

Ukraine’s state security service (SBU) said it carried out the first-ever uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) attack on a Russian vessel. The strike was on a Project 636 Varshavyanka class, or Improved Kilo class diesel-electric submarine, in the Black Sea naval stronghold of Novorossiysk. It would mark a historic first successful use of a UUV as an anti-ship attack weapon.

The SBU released a video it says shows the submarine docked at Novorossiysk along with several other ships. The video pans from right to left and at about the 16-second mark, the submarine erupts in an explosion. That means the UUV, which is not visible in the video, was able to navigate a packed harbor to strike a specific vessel. While we cannot independently verify the SBU claim about the use of a UUV in the strike, they did confirm that assertion to us directly.

Russia, meanwhile, denies any damage was caused by the attack.

‘The information disseminated by special services of Ukraine about the alleged ‘destruction’ of one of the Russian submarines in the bay of the Black Sea Fleet’s Novorossiysk naval base does not correspond to reality,” the Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed on Telegram. “Not a single ship or submarine as well as the crews of the Black Sea Fleet stationed in the bay of the Novorossiysk naval base were damaged as a result of the sabotage. The watercraft serve normally.”

Today’s UUV attack appears to be the culmination of Ukraine’s development of these weapons and once again shows that the war-torn country is at the forefront of modern drone warfare innovation. Little is known about the Sub Sea Baby UUV, not to be confused with the highly adaptable Sea Baby uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) that have wreaked havoc on the Russian Navy.

Ukraine is developing several UUVs, at least that we know of. It released images in September 2023 of a UUV dubbed Marichka, designed to launch kamikaze attacks against ships and maritime infrastructure. That followed the announcement earlier that year of another UUV known as Toloka, which you can see in the following video.

Автономний підводний дрон TOLOKA

Being able to operate underwater not only helps greatly in avoiding detection and destruction, but it can also potentially mitigate some defensive barriers Russia has already built around ports as a result of Ukraine’s uncrewed surface vessel (USV) campaign. This onslaught has already kept Russia’s Black Sea Fleet (BSF) at bay, forcing it to retreat from Crimea to Novorossiysk. Ukrainian USVs have also damaged enemy military facilities in occupied Crimea and the Kerch Bridge, You can see one Ukrainian USV being destroyed below.

Russian Defense Ministry announced that Ukraine attempted to attack the Ivan Khurs signals intelligence ship of the Russian Navy with 3 unmanned surface vessels (USVs) in the Black Sea this morning.

Moscow released footage allegedly showing the destruction of one of the USVs. pic.twitter.com/YfS7xWSGWw

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) May 24, 2023

The U.S., China and many other nations are developing their own UUVs for missions like the one that struck the Improved Kilo class submarines. UUVs can provide the ability to strike vessels and other targets at long distances and can be launched from submarines and motherships, extending their range. They can also be used for reconnaissance and mine laying, among other duties. You can read more about these vessels in our catalogue of stories here.

In the case of the Improved Kilo class boat, “the vessel suffered critical damage and was effectively put out of action,” the SBU claimed. “On board the submarine were four launchers for ‘Kalibr’ cruise missiles, which the enemy uses to strike at the territory of Ukraine.”

The submarine damaged by the Sea Baby UUVs is one of six Improved Kilo class boats that were operated by the Russian Black Sea Fleet, a retired Russian Navy officer who uses the @Capt_Navy X handle told The War Zone.

These submarines are quite capable and can be very hard to detect when dived and running on battery power. These submarines carry Kalibr long-range cruise missiles that have frequently been used to attack Ukraine.

The Sub Sea Baby UUV attack “was a joint operation of the 13th Main Directorate of Military Counterintelligence of the SBU and the Naval Forces of Ukraine,” SBU explained, adding that the estimated cost of one of the Russian submarines is about $400 million.

This incident also marks the second time an Improved Kilo class submarine in Crimea was attacked by Ukraine. In September 2023, the Rostov-on-Don was severely damaged during a combined missile and uncrewed surface vessel (USV) attack on Sevastopol. Ukraine later claimed it was destroyed. You can see the damage to that submarine below.

If today’s attack did damage the submarine significantly, Russia would be left with four examples operating as part of the Black Sea Fleet.

While much about the Sub Sea Baby UUVs remains a mystery, a proven ability to use them as weapons holds Russian vessels at even greater risk. Novorossiysk was seen as something as a relative safe haven for the Black Sea Fleet, although aerial and sea drone attacks have occurred there. But the idea that Ukraine can use underwater drones to strike ships in port there changes this calculus, if that is indeed the true method of the attack. As a result, we will also be seeing a change in Russia’s defensive posture at the sprawling port located on the northeastern edge of the Black Sea.

At the same time, if this attack was executed by a UUV, it would be another world first and is likely a harbinger of things to come. Hitting ships in port over great distances via underwater drone attack is an asymmetric capability. It’s also one that America’s adversaries are investing in heavily, and especially China.

With all this in mind, the attack on the submarine serves as another reminder that the war in Ukraine has become a conflict where theory and development are put into practice.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

These are the key developments from day 1,391 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Tuesday, December 16:

Fighting

• A Russian drone attack killed a 62-year-old Ukrainian man as he was riding a bicycle in the Velyka Pysarivka community of Ukraine’s Sumy region, Governor Oleh Hryhorov said in a post on the Telegram messaging app.
• Russian forces launched 850 attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region in a single day, injuring 14 people and damaging houses, cars and infrastructure, Governor Ivan Fedorov said on Telegram.
• Russian forces injured five people in attacks on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, and six people in the Kherson region in the past day, local officials said, according to the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform.
• In Dnipropetrovsk, those injured included a firefighter and factory worker, hurt after Russian forces launched a second attack on a factory in the Synelnykivskyi district, as rescuers tried to respond to a fire caused by an earlier Russian attack, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported on its website.
• Russian attacks caused power outages in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, as well as the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, the Ukrainian energy company NPC Ukrenergo said on Facebook.
• Ukraine claimed that underwater drones had, for the first time in the war, struck a Russian submarine docked in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
• The head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet press service, Aleksei Rulyov, denied that the underwater drone attack was successful. “Not a single ship or submarine of the Black Sea Fleet located at the base in Novorossiysk Bay was damaged,” he said. “The enemy’s attempt at sabotage through underwater drones failed to achieve its aims.”

Ceasefire talks

• US President Donald Trump said a deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine was “closer than ever” after American, Ukrainian, European and NATO leaders met in Berlin for hours of talks on a potential settlement, hosted by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
• European leaders issued a joint statement after the talks, saying that any decisions on potential Ukrainian territorial concessions to Russia can only be made by the people of Ukraine, and once robust security guarantees are in place for Kyiv.
• They also said that US and European leaders had agreed to “work together to provide robust security guarantees”, including a European-led “multinational force” made up of nations willing to assist “in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine”.
• Speaking at a news conference after the talks, Merz said that the US had offered “considerable” security guarantees, and that although there is now a “chance for a real peace process”, “territorial settlement remains a key question”.

Regional security

• Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov called “the EU’s aggressive actions the main threat in the world at the moment”, and claimed that the US is trying to put Europe “in its place”, in an interview with Iranian state television.
• Germany’s lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, suffered a major email outage. Officials told UK newspaper The Financial Times that they suspect it was a cyberattack, while the Ukraine ceasefire talks were taking place in Berlin.
• Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, the new head of the UK’s armed forces, has called for “national resilience” in the face of a “growing” risk from Russia. “It means more people being ready to fight for their country,” Knighton said of the threat from Moscow, while also referring to recent comments from his French counterpart, Fabien Mandon, who said France must be ready to “lose its children”.

US President Donald Trump has said that an agreement to end Russia’s war on Ukraine is “closer than ever” after key leaders held talks in Berlin, but several officials said that significant differences remain over territorial issues.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that he had “very long and very good talks” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of France, Germany, the United Kingdom and NATO.

“We’re having tremendous support from European leaders. They want to get it [the war] ended also,” he said.

“We had numerous conversations with President [Vladimir] Putin of Russia, and I think we’re closer now than we have been, ever, and we’ll see what we can do.”

Zelenskyy had earlier said that negotiations with US and European leaders were difficult but productive.

The high-level discussions, involving Zelenskyy, a US delegation led by envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and European leaders, took place in Berlin over two days amid mounting pressure from Washington for Kyiv to make concessions to Moscow to end one of Europe’s deadliest conflicts since World War II.

In a statement following the talks, European leaders said they and the US were committed to working together to provide “robust security guarantees” to Ukraine, including a European-led “multinational force Ukraine” supported by the US.

They said the force’s work would include “operating inside Ukraine” as well as assisting in rebuilding Ukraine’s forces, securing its skies and supporting safer seas. They said that Ukrainian forces should remain at a peacetime level of 800,000.

Two US officials, speaking to the Reuters news agency, described the proposed protections as “Article 5-like”, a reference to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence pledge.

Ukraine had earlier signalled it may be willing to abandon its ambition to join the NATO military alliance in exchange for firm Western security guarantees.

Speaking to reporters in Berlin, Zelenskyy said that Kyiv needed a clear understanding of the security guarantees on offer before making any decisions on territorial control under a potential peace settlement. He added that any guarantees must include effective ceasefire monitoring.

Ukrainian officials have been cautious about what form such guarantees could take. Ukraine received security assurances backed by the US and Europe after gaining independence in 1991, but those did not prevent Russia’s invasions in 2014 and 2022.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Washington had offered “considerable” security guarantees during the Berlin talks.

“What the US has placed on the table here in Berlin, in terms of legal and material guarantees, is really considerable,” Merz said at a joint news conference with Zelenskyy.

“We now have the chance for a real peace process,” he said, adding that territorial arrangements remain a central issue. “Only Ukraine can decide about territorial concessions. No ifs or buts.”

Merz also said it was essential for the European Union to reach an agreement on using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine to demonstrate to Moscow that continuing the war is futile. He warned that EU members must share the risks involved in appropriating those assets, or risk damaging the bloc’s reputation.

Meanwhile, the EU has adopted new sanctions targeting companies and individuals accused of helping Russia circumvent Western restrictions on oil exports that help finance the war.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Putin was “open to peace and serious decisions” but opposed to what he described as “temporary respites and subterfuges”.

Reporting from Berlin, Al Jazeera’s Dominic Kane said the outcome of the talks remains unclear.

“We know American emissaries were speaking to Ukrainians here in Berlin yesterday and today. Talks between those two groups have finished, according to a statement by Zelenskyy’s office,” Kane said.

“What we don’t yet know is how much of the US-led 28-point plan – parts of which were acceptable to Moscow but strongly opposed by Kyiv and EU officials – remains intact.”

Kane added that the German government has presented a separate 10-point proposal focused on military and intelligence cooperation rather than a peace settlement. European leaders are expected to continue discussions on the remaining areas of disagreement.

Fighting continues

Meanwhile, Ukraine said on Monday that Russia launched 153 drones overnight, with 17 striking their targets.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces destroyed 130 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory.

Kyiv said its underwater drones struck a Russian submarine docked at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Ukraine has stepped up naval attacks in recent weeks on what it has described as Russia-linked vessels in the Black Sea.

Russian forces have continued to target the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, with two Turkish cargo ships hit in recent days. Kyiv said the strikes were aimed at Russian targets.

Zelenskyy also accused Moscow of using its attacks as leverage in peace negotiations.

He said Russia has struck every power station in Ukraine as part of its campaign against the country’s energy infrastructure.

This week is shaping up to be crucial for the European Union’s policy on Ukraine. EU foreign ministers met in Brussels on Monday; EU heads of state will gather on Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is meeting United States envoy Steve Witkoff. At the top of the agenda is the peace plan put forward by US President Donald Trump and continuing funding for Ukraine’s war effort.

The European strategy so far has been to alter the US-proposed peace plan in such a way that it becomes completely unacceptable to Russia. This, as European leaders hope, will reinforce the core narrative emanating from their capitals over the past two months – that Russian President Vladimir Putin is just playing games and doesn’t really want peace.

The idea behind it is to try to sway Trump to their side and have him apply additional military and economic pressure on the Kremlin rather than pressing Ukraine into signing an unsavoury peace deal right away. But this effort could easily backfire.

The main practical issue with regards to Ukraine’s capacity to withstand Russian aggression during 2026 is who is going to fund its army as well as its state and social welfare system. Trump proudly states that the US is no longer financing Ukraine’s war effort because, in his parlance, it is “Biden’s war” – ie, his predecessor Joe Biden is to blame.

The burden of funding is now squarely on Europe – the EU and rich non-EU countries, such as the United Kingdom and Norway. The US keeps providing weapons to Ukraine, but these are being paid for with money from European coffers. US intelligence support, crucial in Ukraine’s war planning, is currently available to Kyiv for free.

European leaders have been vocal and aggressive throughout the year in rejecting any realistic compromise that could end the war. But even as 2025 is ending, there is no clarity as to how they are going to back up their jingoistic rhetoric with sufficient funding that would allow Ukraine not just to stay afloat but tip the balance in the conflict in its favour.

Their plan A is what they call the reparations loan. It envisages using the assets of the Russian Central Bank frozen by European banks to fund the Ukrainian defence. This means that rather than spending the money on actual reparations – as in Ukraine’s post-war restoration – it would be spent on the war itself.

The thinking behind this plan is that once Russia suffers a strategic defeat, it would retroactively agree to the confiscation rather than demand its money back, so European governments would not have to reach into their coffers to return the money to the Russians.

The obvious problem here is that exactly nobody – except war cheerleaders who have been promising Russia’s defeat for the past four years – believes this outcome is even remotely realistic. Belgium, which holds the bulk of these assets, is equally sceptical, which is why it opposes this plan. It has been joined by a growing number of EU states, including the Czech Republic and Italy.

The other big problem is that Trump’s peace plan has radically different designs for the assets in question. It envisages using them as actual reparations, as in spending them on restoring Ukraine’s economy. Most crucially, Moscow has on numerous occasions signalled that it agrees with this part of the plan. It considers the money lost and wants to make sure neighbouring Ukraine does not turn into a failed state.

This means that if the reparations loan plan goes ahead, it would undermine the most attractive provision of Trump’s plan. If this happens, the US and the EU may find themselves more at odds with each other than they already are, and that would hardly sway Trump.

His administration has indicated on a number of occasions that it could walk out of the peace process if it is derailed, which means ending any help to Ukraine, be it with weapons or intelligence.

The reparations loan plan also comes with an enormous risk for the European economy. The confiscation of Russian assets would discourage any central bank in the world from keeping its money in Europe, meaning the European banking system stands to lose.

More importantly, this move cannot guarantee that Ukraine would be able to stop Russia’s slow but steady advancement. Securing funding for another year under the current circumstances basically means that more Ukrainian lives and territory will be lost in 2026.

This money cannot in effect counter the biggest threat to Ukraine and its neighbours right now: that of Russia precipitating a humanitarian catastrophe that could spill over into the region by devastating Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter. The latest blackout in Odesa when the whole city was left without water and heating in the middle of winter is a dark prelude of things to come.

All this warrants the question of why European leaders are acting the way they are now. Could their irrational radicalism be explained by their extensive political investment in delusional outcomes of this war that they have been selling to voters for the past four years? Or are they engaging in incessant moral posturing so as to avoid being scapegoated for the real outcome of the war?

There is probably a bit of both. But there is perhaps also an even more sinister motive, recently expressed by Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference: the idea that “as long as this war is being fought, … Europe is safe because the Ukrainians have successfully tied down this mighty Russian army.” In other words, there are some within the European political elite who perceive ending the war as being against European interests.

But regardless of what those on top think or are motivated by, the war fatigue in Europe is real. The rise of pro-Russia far-right groups in Germany and elsewhere, capitalising on the ruling elites’ shining ineptitude in handling the conflict with Russia, is a clear sign of that.

If the reparations loan scheme does not pass this week, the EU would have to go to plan B, which envisages loaning money from the EU budget. That, of course, would be met with fierce opposition from the European public.

The failure to secure funding for Ukraine may be seen as an embarrassing failure in Europe, but it would make things easier for Zelenskyy. With his administration losing popularity amid continuing military upsets and a major corruption scandal, Ukraine’s president is well on his way to becoming the chief scapegoat in this debacle.

But no more funding from Europe would allow him to declare that the West has betrayed Ukraine and proceed with the inevitable: accepting an unsavoury peace largely on Russia’s terms.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Dec. 15 (UPI) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz were set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. officials in Berlin on Monday in an effort to reach a consensus on what any peace deal with Russia should look like.

The European leaders, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, who has yet to confirm his attendance, will seek to negotiate an alternative to the U.S.-Russia plan currently on the table with a stronger deal for Ukraine with better protections for its security.

The talks will also attempt to keep afloat an EU-brokered agreement to loan Ukraine some of the $246.7 billion of Russia’s assets frozen in European banks and other institutions to help it defend itself and take “forward peace talks from a position of strength,” amid mounting opposition to the plan.

The meeting follows five hours of talks on Sunday between Zelensky and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, at the Federal Chancellery that Witkoff said were productive and would resume on Monday.

“Representatives held in-depth discussions regarding the 20-point plan for peace, economic agendas, and more. A lot of progress was made, and they will meet again tomorrow morning,” Witkoff posted on X on Sunday evening.

Zelensky was reported to have dropped demands for NATO membership, if it was what was required to end the war, in exchange for a bilateral defense agreement with the United States similar to an Article 5-like guarantee, along with other guarantees from Ukraine’s European partners.

Article 5 is a cast-iron guarantee, a collective defense principle enshrined in NATO’s constitution under which an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all members and triggers an obligation for each member to come to its defense.

Following the initial discussions on Monday, Merz’s spokesman confirmed the group would be widened to include “numerous European heads of state and government, as well as the leaders of the EU and NATO.”

The diplomatic focus will shift to Brussels on Thursday when the leaders of all 27 EU nations converge on the Belgian capital for a meeting of the European Council with Ukraine and European security topping the agenda.

Council President Antonio Costa said the summit would address how best to continue defending Europe’s interests and how to “strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position,” a key element of which necessitated “increased pressure on Russia.”

Costa said that having already committed to providing for Ukraine’s urgent financial needs for 2026-2027, including funding for its military and defense, it was now time to decide how to implement it and that leaders must keep talking on Thursday until an agreement was reached.

Earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled two options — both controversial — to provide Ukraine with $105.8 billion of the $158.6 it is estimated it will need in the two years through 2027 to keep the country running and being able to continue fighting Russia.

The so-called “reparations loan” option involving using frozen Russian assets only requires a two-thirds majority of EU states to vote for it. The second option under which the EU would use its budget to go borrow on the international capital markets is more problematic because it could be blocked by a single state.

Hungary and Slovakia have indicated they are opposed to either route, while Belgium, home to Euroclear, the clearing house where the majority of Russia’s frozen assets are held, has expressed strong worries that it could be taken to court by Russia were the frozen assets tapped or that it may scare off foreign investors.

Russia has protested that appropriating its assets amounts to theft but the EU says that is not the case because there was nothing to preclude Russia from reclaiming the funds in future — after it has paid war reparations to Ukraine.

Ukraine is set to run out of money early in the New Year.

Dec. 14 (UPI) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that his country may give up its dreams of NATO ascension, at least temporarily, for an end to the war and security guarantees from the United States and Europe, reports said.

Zelensky, who has said that NATO ascension is unlikely because of Russian opposition, held that Ukraine would still seek security guarantees similar to the bloc’s Article 5 clause for mutual protection for members under attack.

His comments were made to journalists in a private WhatsApp chat and were reported by The New York Times and Financial Times.

“This is already a compromise on our part,” Zelensky said.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will host talks Sunday between Zelensky, as well as Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, at the Federal Chancellery.

Zelensky added that he has not yet received a response from the Trump administration on revised peace proposals sent last week, the reports said.

Under that peace plan, The New York Times reported, Ukraine said any decision to give up Ukrainian territory would need to be put to a vote and it removed a measure put in place by American negotiators preventing it from ever joining NATO, indicating that Zelensky holds on to hope Ukraine could join the defense alliance in the future.

Yuri Ushakov, the foreign policy adviser to President Vladimir Putin, said on state television Sunday that Russia would have “sharp objections” if the United States adopted any Ukrainian or European suggestions for the plan.

Both Ukraine and Russia have seemingly rejected a proposal from the Trump administration that would create a sort-of demilitarized zone in parts of eastern Ukraine that it still holds, requiring only Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the buffer area.

Zelensky said Sunday he did not consider it fair that Russian troops were not also asked to withdraw deeper into the occupied territories.

“We stand where we stand,” he said. “That is precisely a ceasefire.”