Ukraine

A recent United States ambassador to Ukraine has published an opinion column explaining her decision to resign her post, and criticising President Donald Trump for siding with Russia over Ukraine.

On Friday, former diplomat Bridget Brink published an article in the Detroit Free Press, a newspaper in her home state of Michigan, expressing concern about current US foreign policy.

The US has long been an ally of Ukraine, and since 2014, it has provided the war-torn country with military assistance, as it fends off Russia’s attempts at invasion and annexation.

But Brink wrote that there has been a shift since President Trump returned to office for a second term in January.

“I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy,” she wrote.

“Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.”

Brink pointed out that her time at the US Department of State included roles under five presidents, both Democrat and Republican. But she said the shift under the Trump administration forced her to abandon her ambassadorship to Ukraine, a position she held from 2022 until last month.

“I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity,” she said of the situation in Ukraine.

“I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement.”

Brink’s position as ambassador has spanned much of the current conflict in Ukraine. After annexing Crimea and occupying other Ukrainian territories starting in 2014, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. Brink assumed her post that May.

But the slow-grinding war in Ukraine has cost thousands of lives and displaced many more. While campaigning for re-election in 2024, Trump blamed the war’s eruption on the “weak” foreign policy of his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden.

He also pledged to end the war on his first day back in office, if re-elected. “I’ll have that done in 24 hours. I’ll have it done,” Trump told one CNN town hall in 2023.

Since taking office, however, Trump has walked back those comments, calling them an “exaggeration” in an interview with Time Magazine.

Still, his administration has pushed Ukraine and Russia to engage in peace talks, as part of an effort to end the war. How those negotiations have unfolded under Trump, however, has been the source of scrutiny and debate.

Ukraine and its European allies have accused Trump of sidelining their interests in favour of his one-on-one negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They also have criticised Trump and his officials for seeming to offer Russia concessions even before the negotiations officially began.

On February 12, for instance, his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told an international defence group in Brussels that Ukraine may never regain some of its occupied territory.

“We must start by recognising that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,” he said, adding that membership in the NATO military alliance was also unlikely. “Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

Trump has gone so far as to blame Ukraine’s NATO ambitions as the cause of the war, something critics blast as a Kremlin talking point.

Amid the negotiations, the relationship between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has grown increasingly testy. Already, during his first term, Trump faced impeachment proceedings over an alleged attempt to pressure Zelenskyy by withholding military aid.

During his second term, though, Trump upped the ante, calling the Ukrainian president a “dictator” for not holding elections, something prohibited under Ukraine’s wartime laws.

One public display of frustration came in the White House on February 28, when Trump shouted at Zelenskyy, calling him “disrespectful” during a gathering with journalists.

The US president also used the appearance to defend his warm relationship with Russia’s president. “ Putin went through a hell of a lot with me,” Trump told Zelenskyy.

The shouting match led to a brief suspension of US aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

In the months since, their two countries have agreed to a deal that would establish a joint investment fund that would allow Washington access to Ukraine’s mineral resources — a long-desired Trump goal.

The US president has voiced concern about the amount of money invested in Ukraine’s security, with Congress appropriating more than $174bn since the war began in 2022. He has also argued that a US mining presence would help deter foreign attacks in Ukraine.

But peace between Russia and Ukraine has remained elusive. Talks between the two warring parties on Friday ended after less than two hours, though they did agree to an exchange of 1,000 prisoners each.

In her op-ed column, Brink was clear that she held Russia responsible for the ongoing aggression.

“Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, it has done what can only be described as pure evil: killed thousands of civilians, including 700 children, with missiles and drones that hit their homes and apartments in the dead of night,” she wrote.

She added that Europe has not experienced “violence so systematic, so widespread and so horrifying in Europe since World War II”.

Brink warned that, if the US did not stand up to Russia, a domino effect could occur, paving the way for military assaults on other countries.

“If we allow Putin to redraw borders by force, he won’t stop with Ukraine,” she wrote. “Taken at his word, Putin’s ambition is to resurrect an imperial past ― and he can’t do that without threatening the security of our NATO allies.”

Ukraine and Russia agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap — the war’s largest — during their first direct peace talks in three years, in Istanbul. Kyiv is now pushing for a Zelensky-Putin summit and a clear ceasefire plan.

ICC says Karim Khan will take a leave of absence pending the conclusion of UN-led investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denies.

The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, has taken a leave of absence pending the conclusion of UN-led investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct against him.

Khan’s office said on Friday that he had informed colleagues he would step aside until the UN Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) wraps up its probe. The OIOS has been conducting the external investigation since December, following complaints raised with the ICC’s oversight body.

Khan has denied the allegations, which were first reported in October last year. The court said that he would remain on leave until the inquiry concludes, though a timeline for its completion remains unclear. During his absence, the court’s two deputy prosecutors will assume his responsibilities.

Khan’s decision to step aside temporarily follows months of growing pressure from human rights groups and some court officials, who had urged him to withdraw while the investigation was ongoing.

“Stepping aside helps protect the court’s credibility and the trust of victims, staff, and the public. For the alleged victim and whistleblowers, this is also a moment of recognition and dignity,” said Danya Chaikel of human rights watchdog FIDH.

The court has not confirmed when the OIOS investigation will conclude, but the case comes at a time of rising global scrutiny of the ICC’s role and credibility.

High-profile investigations

The decision comes as the court is pursuing high-profile investigations, including into Russia’s assault on Ukraine and Israel’s war on Gaza.

Khan requested arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin for the alleged unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children, and for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes in Gaza.

The United States, a vocal critic of the court’s recent moves, imposed sanctions on Khan over his pursuit of Israeli officials. ICC leadership has since warned that such political attacks could endanger the institution’s survival.

There was hope that it would be Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting in Turkiye this week, for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

That wasn’t to be, after Russia confirmed that Putin would not be travelling to Turkiye. But both countries still sent delegations – agreeing to a prisoner swap – and the meeting in Istanbul on Friday was the first direct talks since shortly after the war began in February 2022.

Some of those talks in 2022 were also hosted by Turkiye, highlighting the central role the country has played in the search for a resolution to one of the world’s most significant geopolitical conflicts.

Turkiye is also poised to expand its influence in Syria, where the US has lifted sanctions on the Turkish-allied government, and has a significant win on the domestic front, after the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced this week that it was disbanding, ending a 40-year war against the Turkish state.

A direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy on Turkish soil would have capped off a strong week for Turkiye, but analysts say that its central role to the process is a victory nonetheless.

“Turkiye stands to win diplomatically whichever way the talks go,” Ziya Meral of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said, even if the analyst ultimately was sceptical of any peace framework emerging from the talks. “It fulfils Ankara’s desire to be a negotiator and key player in regional developments. The fact that Ankara is in a position to engage both with the United States and Russia, as well as Ukraine is indeed a diplomatic success.”

Over the last 15 years or so, Turkiye has established itself as a significant diplomatic player, extending its influence across Africa and playing a pivotal role in the overthrow of long-term Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, all while maintaining an intensely delicate balancing act between belligerents in the Russia-Ukraine war.

“There are many reasons why Turkiye is hosting the talks,” Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at The Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

“Turkiye started a peace process independent of the US shortly after the invasion, leading to the Istanbul protocols of 2022. This is also a new model of negotiation, pioneered by Turkiye,” he said, referring to the draft peace agreement brokered between the two states that Russia has since accused Ukraine and the West of walking away from.

“Before, neutral states such as Switzerland with no stake in the conflict would mediate. Now, under a new model, Turkiye is successfully negotiating in conflicts where it does have diplomatic, economic and geopolitical stakes,” Ozkizilcik added, listing a number of disputes where Turkiye had played a mediating role, such as that between Ethiopia and Somalia, where Turkiye was able to negotiate in December a “historic reconciliation” in President Recep Tayyip Erodgan’s words.

Turkiye has its own interests across these countries, including its supply of drones to Ukraine and a significant military presence in Somalia. However, it is still able to present itself as a reliable arbitrator in peace talks involving these countries.

“It’s a new Turkish model that is seeing the country emerge as a regional diplomatic power,” Ozkizilcik said.

Hot and cold relations with Russia

The balancing act Turkiye has followed in negotiating between Russia and Ukraine hasn’t been easy – particularly when Ankara has had to take into account its opposition to Russian expansionism in the Black Sea region and Moscow’s support for parties opposed to Ankara in the Middle East and North Africa.

Turkiye labelled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war” early in the conflict, allowing it to implement the 1936 Montreux Convention – effectively confining Russia’s military vessels to the Black Sea.

Ankara and Moscow have also found themselves on opposing sides in Libya and Syria. In Libya, Turkiye backs the United Nations-recognised government, in contrast to Russia’s support for armed forces in the insurgent east, while in Syria, Turkiye supported the ultimately victorious opposition forces against the Russian-backed al-Assad regime.

Syria was the source of the biggest tension between the two when, in 2015, Turkiye shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Turkiye-Syria border. The incident triggered a severe deterioration in diplomatic and economic ties, but a Turkish statement of regret led to a rapprochement the next year, and relations have remained strong.

Those strong ties have also survived Turkiye’s supply of drones and other military equipment to Ukraine throughout the course of the war.

Russia has seemingly turned a blind eye to that, and maintains “economic, diplomatic and energy relations” with Turkiye, Ozkizilcik said.

The benefits of good relations with Turkiye seem to outweigh Russia’s unhappiness with some aspects of Turkish policy, and Turkiye’s position as a member of NATO that Russia can still deal with is in itself useful.

In 2022, Turkiye was prominent in opposing Western sanctions on Russia; describing them as a “provocation“. And Turkiye has rarely been content to toe the NATO line, for a time opposing Sweden and Finland’s entry into the alliance, and also agreeing on a deal to buy Russia’s S-400 missile system in 2017.

Turkiye’s purchase of the missile system led to US sanctions, exclusion from the F-35 defence programme and accusations in some quarters that Ankara was “turning its back” on the West as part of a pivot towards Russia.

“Both sides have learned to compartmentalise differences,” Ozkizilcik said. He referred to an attack in 2020 that killed more than 33 Turkish soldiers in Syria by regime forces acting in coordination with Russia. “There were talks, both sides met and addressed the issue and they moved on. More recently, when Turkish-backed forces overthrew the Assad regime, Erdogan still called Putin on his birthday and congratulated him.”

Friendship with Ukraine

But Turkiye has been able to strengthen its relationship with the West in the years since, demonstrating its usefulness, particularly when it came to Ukraine.

Turkiye was instrumental in brokering a deal in 2022 to allow Ukraine to export its grain by sea, and has also been firm in its stance that Russian-occupied Crimea – the homeland of the Turkic Muslim Crimean Tatars – be returned to Ukraine.

Steven Horrell, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, believes that Ukraine “appreciates Turkiye’s past support to them”, even if it has some qualms about its ties with Russia.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly thanked Erdogan for his role in facilitating talks and in supporting Ukraine. On Thursday, the Ukrainian leader highlighted Turkiye’s support for Ukraine, and even said that his country’s participation in direct talks – despite Putin’s absence – was “out of respect” for Erdogan and US President Donald Trump.

Earlier in the week, Zelenskyy had thanked Erdogan for his support “and readiness to facilitate diplomacy at the highest level”.

I spoke with the President of Türkiye @RTErdogan to discuss key details of the meeting in Türkiye, which could help bring an end to the war. I am grateful for his support and readiness to facilitate diplomacy at the highest level. We share a common view on the need for a… pic.twitter.com/BX1pw28f3x

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 12, 2025

The emphasis on mutual respect and friendship highlights that for Ukraine, Turkiye is not an ally it can afford to lose.

And that gives Turkiye some leeway in its ability to maintain close ties to Russia without any negative backlash from the West, and a chance to fulfil some of its own goals.

“Turkiye would certainly gain some prestige from hosting the talks, even more so if they are successful,” said Horrell. “Turkiye views itself not just as a regional leader, but truly a leader on the global stage. They gain in both of the bilateral relationships with Russia and Ukraine if they help achieve the goals of peace.”

Reporters Without Borders and Truth Hounds found that Russia’s attacks on hotels intended to ‘discourage’ war coverage.

Russian attacks have increasingly hit hotels hosting journalists in Ukraine, in what could constitute “war crimes”, according to a new report.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and Truth Hounds – a Ukrainian organisation founded to document war crimes – released the report on Friday. It found that Russian attacks on hotels housing journalists moved from being “isolated events” early in the conflict in 2022 to a “sustained threat” by 2025.

At least 31 strikes on 25 hotels being used by journalists have been recorded since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022, the report states.

“These attacks appear to be part of a broader Russian strategy aimed at intimidating journalists and suppressing independent media coverage of Russia’s actions in Ukraine,” the report said.

The hotels hit are mainly close to the front line. Only one was being used for military purposes at the time of the attack, the NGOs said.

“In total, 25 journalists and media professionals have found themselves under these hotel bombings, and at least seven have been injured,” it stated.

According to the RSF, at least 13 journalists have been killed while covering Russia’s war on Ukraine, with 12 of the deaths on Ukrainian territory.

Types of attacks

The report highlighted that the attacks followed a clear pattern, occurring at night, using ballistic missiles launched at civilian hotels that were not “legitimate military targets”.

“Our analysis therefore suggests that these attacks are neither random nor incidental but are instead part of a broader strategy aimed at discouraging independent reporting from the front line,” the authors concluded.

Due to the safety obstacles to reporting from a war zone, 13 percent of respondents to a survey said there had been a “reduction” in assignments to high-risk areas, affecting how the war is covered.

The report called for legal measures to prosecute crimes against journalists at “national and international jurisdictions”, specifically the International Criminal Court.

These are the key events on day 1,177 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Friday, May 16 :

Fighting

• Fighting continues along the 1,100km (683 mile) front line, where Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces captured two settlements located near Moscow’s long-term targets. Russia claimed to have taken Novooleksandrivka, a rural village near Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as well as the town of Torske, which is located near the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
• The Ukrainian military acknowledged that Novooleksandrivka had been under attack, but it did not mention Torske in its latest report.
• Oleksandr Syrskii, Ukraine’s top military commander, said on Telegram that Russia “has turned its aggression against Ukraine into a war of attrition and is using a combined force of up to 640,000 troops”.
• Ukraine lost its first F-16 fighter jet on Friday due to an “unusual situation on board”, but the pilot successfully ejected, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Ceasefire

• Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian envoys will hold trilateral talks in Istanbul, although hopes are low for any breakthrough after Russia sent a lower-level delegation to the meeting than hoped. The meeting marks the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since a meeting in 2022 also held in Istanbul.
• Turkiye will take part in two trilateral meetings on Friday as part of the renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources told the Reuters news agency.
• A meeting will take place between Turkish, US and Ukrainian officials and is scheduled to take place at 10:45am local time [07:45 GMT], followed by talks between Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian delegations at 12:30pm [09:30 GMT], the sources told Reuters.
• The Ukrainian delegation will now be led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov instead of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Thursday.
• “We can’t be running around the world looking for Putin,” Zelenskyy said after a meeting with Erdogan. “I feel disrespect from Russia. No meeting time, no agenda, no high-level delegation – this is personal disrespect. To Erdogan, to Trump.”
• US President Donald Trump said an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is not possible without him first meeting Putin. “I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One.

Putin’s absence casts doubt on peace talks in Turkiye, raising concerns about potential intensified sanctions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is sending a team headed by his defence minister to Istanbul for the first direct talks with a Russian delegation since the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Zelenskyy announced the move on Thursday after the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had no intention to meet with him in Turkiye, sending instead a junior delegation – a move that Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said was “like a slap in the face”.

The Ukrainian president said in a news conference in the Turkish capital, Ankara, that the Russian delegation doesn’t include “anyone who actually makes decisions”, accusing Moscow of not making efforts to end the war.

The Ukrainian delegation will be headed by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov with the aim “to attempt at least the first steps toward de-escalation, the first steps toward ending the war – namely, a ceasefire”, he said.

It was not immediately clear when the delegations would meet.

Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu, reporting in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Ankara, said Zelenskyy chose a delegation “in equilibrium” with the Russian one.

“He said they didn’t mind taking the first step towards an immediate ceasefire that is necessary for direct peace talks,” she said.

Still, “there won’t be any negotiations, and Zelenskyy underlined that even his delegation has no mandate to decide anything. So tomorrow, it is probably going to be technical talks between the two delegations,” she added.

US President Trump, who had pressed for Putin and Zelenskyy to meet face-to-face in Istanbul, brushed off Putin’s absence from the talks.

“Nothing’s going to happen until Russian President Vladimir Putin and I get together, OK?” Trump said on board Air Force One just before landing in Dubai on the third stop of his Middle East trip. “I didn’t think it was possible for Putin to go if I’m not there.”

Putin’s absence punctured hopes of a breakthrough in ceasefire efforts that were given a push in recent months by the Trump administration and Western European leaders amid the intense manoeuvring. It also raised the prospect of intensified international sanctions on Russia that have been threatened by the West.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier welcomed Zelenskyy with an honour guard at the presidential palace in Ankara before the two held talks.

“Now, after three years of immense suffering, there is finally a window of opportunity,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at a NATO meeting taking place separately in Turkiye. “The talks … hopefully may open a new chapter.”

Brussels is drawing up plans to use trade tariffs and capital controls to maintain financial pressure on Russia, even if Hungary decides to use its veto to block an extension of the European Union’s sanctions regime, which lapses in July of this year.

The European Commission has told ministers that a large part of the EU’s sanctions, which included freezing 200 billion euros ($224bn) of Russian assets, could be adapted to a new legal framework to bypass Budapest’s veto, according to the United Kingdom’s Financial Times newspaper.

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has repeatedly held up EU boycotts on Moscow as the central European country gets 85 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Orban’s nationalist government is also one of the most friendly to Moscow in all of Europe.

In any event, the EU’s recent proposals have emerged as Moscow and Kyiv hold their first direct peace talks since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukrainian and Russian representatives are convening today in Istanbul, Turkiye. However, Vladimir Putin will not travel to Istanbul for face-to-face talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Last weekend, European leaders held talks in Ukraine to put pressure on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire in the run-up to the Istanbul talks. Ukraine agreed to it. Russia did not.

What sanctions does the EU currently have in place against Russia?

The EU adopted its 17th sanctions package against Moscow, designed to stifle Russia’s economy and force President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, on Wednesday. This package has been signed off by Budapest and will be formally ratified by the European Commission next week.

Brussels has progressively expanded sanctions against Moscow since 2022, introducing import bans on Russian oil, a price cap on Russian fuel and the freezing of Russian central bank assets held in European financial institutions.

Vast swaths of Russia’s economy – from media organisations to aviation and telecommunications – are now under EU restrictions, in addition to trade bans and measures targeting oligarchs and politicians.

Under the 17th package, some 200 “shadow fleet” tankers have been sanctioned. These are ships with opaque ownership and no Western ties in terms of finance or insurance, allowing them to bypass financial sanctions.

The latest sanctions will also target Chinese and Turkish entities that the EU says are helping Russia to evade embargoes. New restrictions will be imposed on 30 companies involved in the trade of dual-use goods – products with potential military applications.

“Russia has found ways to circumvent the blockage imposed by Europe and the United States, so closing the tap would grab Russia by the throat,” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told BFM TV.

How effective are sanctions?

Alongside military support for Kyiv, sanctions have been the EU’s main response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. But sanctions have so far failed to stop the war. What’s more, due to high oil prices and elevated military spending, Russia’s economy has outperformed expectations since the start of 2022.

Barrot acknowledged on Wednesday that the impact of sanctions has been insufficient. “We will need to go further because the sanctions so far have not dissuaded Vladimir Putin from continuing his war of aggression … we must prepare to expand devastating sanctions that could suffocate, once and for all, Russia’s economy,” said Barrot.

What new measures are being proposed?

While the 17th round of sanctions was only agreed on Wednesday, EU ministers are already considering what more might be done to undermine Putin’s political clout if the war in Ukraine persists.

Capital controls, which would be aimed at restricting money flowing in and out of Russia, and trade measures such as tariffs, are two options that have been mentioned by the European Commission in recent weeks. Capital controls can take a variety of forms, including restrictions on foreign investment, limiting currency exchange or imposing taxes on the movement of capital.

The commission also aims to share proposals next month that would allow Brussels to implement a ban on new Russian gas spot market contracts – deals for immediate delivery and payment – with European companies in 2025, and a total phase-out by 2027.

Despite oil export restrictions, Russia still earns billions of euros from natural gas sales into the EU through liquefied natural gas (LNG) and TurkStream (a pipeline connecting Russia to southeastern Europe via the Black Sea). Banning spot market contracts would lower Moscow’s revenue from these sources.

Brussels may also propose tariffs on enriched uranium as part of its effort to cut EU reliance on Russian fuels.

According to The Financial Times, the EU insists that these measures would not amount to sanctions and therefore would not need the unanimous backing of all 27 EU countries, which is normally required to extend sanctions.

“I think the EU cooked up these potential punishments to try and get Russia to agree to the 30-day ceasefire … it was the stick they were brandishing,” said an analyst familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.

Will the US impose more sanctions?

It may. On May 1, Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he had the commitment of 72 colleagues for a bill that would enact “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia.

Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, is spearheading a draft bill that seeks to impose a 500 percent tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil and fossil fuels.

Trump himself, who seemingly welcomes the possibility of a rapprochement with Russia, said in March that he was “considering” imposing sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a peace agreement is reached with Ukraine.

Could such measures force Putin to the negotiating table?

“Most Russian people want life to return to normal and business owners are getting tired of war-related costs,” the anonymous analyst told Al Jazeera. “There is a growing sense of unease.”

She said she doubted whether the EU’s touted measures would bring Putin any closer to signing a peace agreement, however. “Only because sanctions haven’t been able to do that,” she said, “and there’s already a maze of them.”

According to Castellum.AI, a global risk platform, Russia has been slapped with 21,692 sanctions since the start of the war – the majority of them against individuals.

“On past performance, it’s hard to see how even more sanctions and additional punishments will stop the fighting,” the analyst said.

She estimated a 60 percent chance that Russia and Ukraine would still be at war by the end of this year.

Russia and Ukraine are poised for talks in Turkiye on Thursday, even though the prospects of President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting directly for the first time in three years were dashed by the Kremlin late on Wednesday.

United States President Donald Trump, who had earlier indicated that he might join the negotiations, will also not attend, according to American officials.

Here’s what we know about the talks, what prompted them, who’s expected to attend, and why the negotiations matter:

Why are the talks being held?

On Sunday, Putin proposed the idea of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkiye, instead of the rounds of indirect talks that the US and others have tried to mediate between the neighbours at war. Putin referenced direct talks that took place in 2022 while pitching for their resumption.

“It was not Russia that broke off negotiations in 2022. It was Kyiv. Nevertheless, we are proposing that Kyiv resume direct negotiations without any preconditions,” Putin said on Sunday.

In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Shortly after, Russia and Ukraine held talks in the Turkish capital, Istanbul.

According to Zelenskyy, the talks fell apart because Russia demanded that Ukraine concede the Donbas region, which spans Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions – parts of which Russia occupied during its invasion. Zelenskyy added that Russia wanted Ukraine to surrender long-range weaponry, make constitutional amendments to declare neutrality and significantly reduce its armed forces. “There were never any negotiations; it was an ultimatum from a murderer,” Zelenskyy said at the time.

While Zelenskyy had earlier held that any peace agreement would require Russia to give up Ukrainian territory it had occupied, in December last year, Zelenskyy said the “hot phase” of the war could end if NATO offered security guarantees for the part of Ukraine currently under Kyiv’s control.

He added that the return of land that Russia has occupied could be diplomatically negotiated later.

“The pressure that the US has exerted to attempt to bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine has evolved over time,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera. “It appears that the most recent elements in that evolution, particularly in terms of European solidarity with Ukraine, have led Russia to engage in direct talks.”

Putin’s recent push for talks came a day after Ukraine’s four major European allies gave Putin an ultimatum to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face renewed sanctions. This ultimatum came after leaders of the European countries, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland, visited Kyiv.

They gave Putin a deadline until May 12. On Sunday, May 11, Putin – without committing to a ceasefire – said: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine. Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, to establish a long-term, lasting peace for the historical perspective.”

Where are they being held?

The talks are being held in the Turkish city of Istanbul, which straddles the boundary between Asia and Europe.

What role did Trump play in this?

The four European leaders – Britain’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Poland’s Donald Tusk – said that they had briefed Trump about their ultimatum to Russia over a phone call and suggested that he was on board.

But after Putin called for direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow, Trump issued a statement on his Truth Social platform asking Ukraine to meet with Russia “immediately”.

Trump ran his campaign for the 2024 election on the promise to bring a swift end to the Ukraine war. The Trump administration held multiple meetings, starting February, with Russian and Ukrainian representatives separately in Saudi Arabia in attempts to broker a deal.

Also in April, the Trump administration indicated that it was taking a step back from providing security guarantees to Ukraine. The Trump administration said it wanted Europe to take the lead in supporting Ukraine’s defence instead, noting that the US had other priorities, including border security.

In recent weeks, however, Trump and his team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have expressed growing frustration at the lack of meaningful progress in negotiations and have threatened to walk out of efforts to mediate peace.

Explaining his insistence that Ukraine join the May 15 Istanbul talks, Trump argued: “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US, will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!”

Who will be there?

“I supported President Trump with the idea of direct talks with Putin. I have openly expressed my readiness to meet. I will be in Turkiye. I hope that the Russians will not evade the meeting,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post on Monday.

On Tuesday, Zelenskyy announced he will be in Ankara on Thursday, where he will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The talks with Russia, however, are supposed to be held in Istanbul subsequently.

Trump has said he will send Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg to attend the talks in Istanbul.

Russia on Wednesday night announced its team for the meeting. Vladimir Medinsky, a close Putin aide and former culture minister who also led previous rounds of unsuccessful talks with Ukraine in 2022, will lead Moscow’s team. With him will be Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin and the director of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Igor Kostyukov.

Trump’s earlier offer to attend the talks himself had been welcomed by Kyiv. “All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkiye. This is the right idea. We can change a lot,” Zelenskyy had said.

However, late on Wednesday, US officials clarified that Trump would not be attending.

The US president is currently in the Middle East, where he spent Wednesday in Qatar, after visiting Saudi Arabia a day earlier. On Thursday, Trump will be in the United Arab Emirates before returning to Washington.

What does Putin’s absence mean?

Zelenskyy had earlier said he would be present at the talks only if Putin also attended. “Putin is the one who determines everything in Russia, so he is the one who has to resolve the war. This is his war. Therefore, the negotiations should be with him,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Tuesday.

With Putin now no longer poised to attend, it is unclear if Zelenskyy will personally participate in the talks or whether he will leave it to his team to join the negotiations.

Yet, in many ways, Zelenskyy scored over Putin by throwing down the gauntlet and asking him to attend.

“Zelenskyy has presented a challenge to Russia to show that it has genuine interest; it is up to Russia whether it meets this challenge or not,” said Giles.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had also pledged to urge Putin to attend the talks.

What’s on the table?

It is difficult to predict what might specifically be discussed in the Turkiye talks.

“It would be rash to predict whether there will be any meaningful discussion at all, since the acceptable outcomes for both are still far apart,” Giles said. “Russia wants to neutralise Ukraine as an independent sovereign state, while Ukraine wants to survive.”

At the moment, Ukraine has proposed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, while Russia has insisted that a series of its demands be accepted before it joins such a truce. Moscow said that it wants assurances over the monitoring mechanism for a ceasefire, and that a truce won’t be used by Ukraine to rearm and mobilise more soldiers. Instead, Putin has announced brief, unilateral ceasefires in recent days that Ukraine says Moscow never actually adhered to.

“We do not rule out that, during these negotiations, it will be possible to agree on some new truces, a new ceasefire and a real truce, which would be observed not only by Russia, but also by the Ukrainian side. [It] would be the first step, I repeat, to a long-term sustainable peace, and not a prologue to the continuation of the armed conflict,” Putin said on Sunday.

How significant are these talks?

Giles said that if the talks happen, “they will be a significant step forward”.

He added: “Anything that has been referred to as peace talks [ so far] has not been anything of the sort,” describing the two parallel discussions that the US has had with Russia and Ukraine.

On March 19, the US, Ukraine and Russia announced a 30-day ceasefire on attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and on March 25, they agreed on a Black Sea deal, halting the military use of commercial vessels and the use of force in the Black Sea. Both sides, however, traded blame for violating the terms of those agreements, which have now expired.

Brazil, China call for direct talks as the “only way to end the conflict” between Russia and Ukraine.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has pledged to press his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to attend negotiations with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkiye, adding to calls on Moscow to enter talks and end its three-year war.

Lula is expected to stop in the Russian capital on the way back from attending a regional forum in China.

“I’ll try to talk to Putin,” Lula said at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday before his departure.

“It costs me nothing to say, ‘hey, comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate, dammit,’” he said.

The negotiations, expected to take place on Thursday in Turkiye’s commercial hub, Istanbul, would be the first direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Lula’s comments come after the Ukrainian foreign minister urged Brazil to use its influence with Russia to secure a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy.

Brazil and China issued a joint statement on Tuesday calling for direct negotiations as the “only way to end the conflict”.

Zelenskyy earlier dared Putin to meet him in Turkiye, saying if he does not show up, it would show that Moscow is not interested in peace.

He also urged United States President Donald Trump, currently on a tour of Middle Eastern countries, to also visit Turkiye and participate in the talks.

Trump had announced that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would participate in the talks in Istanbul.

A State Department official said Rubio was expected to be in Istanbul on Friday.

The Kremlin has not yet specified whether Putin will attend in person, stating only that the “Russian delegation will be present”.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Moscow was ready for serious talks on Ukraine, but doubted Kyiv’s capacity for negotiations.

These are the key events on day 1,175 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Wednesday, May 14:

Fighting

• At least three people were killed in a Russian bombardment of Ukraine’s Kharkiv, an official from the region said.

• At least 16 people were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks on the region of Belgorod, the governor of the southwestern Russian region said.

• Among the wounded were a doctor and a paramedic, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on the Telegram messaging app. Eight people were admitted to hospital, he added.

• Russia’s air defence units destroyed 12 Ukrainian drones overnight, according to Russian news agencies.

Ceasefire talks

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would travel to Turkiye this week for negotiations with Russia on the war in Ukraine and urged President Vladimir Putin to meet him for face-to-face talks.
• Zelenskyy called on US counterpart Donald Trump to help secure a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Turkiye on Thursday, while accusing the Russian leader of not seriously wanting to end the war.
• Zelenskyy also said he hopes to attend Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural Mass on Sunday, depending on developments in talks with Russia this week.
• Trump said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would participate in talks on the Ukraine war in Turkiye, saying he expects “some pretty good results”. A State Department official said Rubio was expected on Friday in Istanbul.
• Brazil’s president said he will press Vladimir Putin to attend negotiations with Zelenskyy in Turkiye.

• French President Emmanuel Macron has declared that he was in favour of imposing new sanctions on Russia in the coming days if Moscow failed to agree to a ceasefire, mentioning financial services and oil and gas as possible targets.

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier said European allies would roll out “a significant tightening of sanctions” if there was no progress on ending the Ukraine war this week.

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Moscow was ready for serious talks on Ukraine but had doubts about Kyiv’s capacity for negotiations.

Economy

• The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on imports from Ukraine within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, quoting diplomats.

These are the key events on day 1,174 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Tuesday, May 13:

Ceasefire

• Moscow has yet to say whether Russian leader Vladimir Putin will attend direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slated for Thursday in Istanbul and proposed by Kyiv over the weekend. The leaders have not met since December 2019.
• United States President Donald Trump said he is “thinking about flying over” to Istanbul to join the potential Putin-Zelenskyy talks.
• “I don’t know where I’m going to be on Thursday – I’ve got so many meetings – but I was thinking about actually flying over there. There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen,” Trump said. “Don’t underestimate Thursday in Turkey.”

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he held a joint call with Ukrainian and European officials to discuss a “way forward for a ceasefire” on Monday.
• Europe will reportedly push the White House for new sanctions on Moscow if Putin either fails to attend the Istanbul meeting, or fails to agree to an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Germany said it is also preparing sanctions against Moscow if the talks stall.

Fighting

• Ukraine says that Russia is “completely ignoring” calls for a 30-day ceasefire made over the weekend by the US and Europe. It was due to begin on Monday.
• “Russian shelling and assaults continue,” Zelenskyy said in a nightly address. “Moscow has remained silent all day regarding the proposal for a direct meeting. A very strange silence.”
• Ukraine’s military said that there had been 133 clashes with Russian forces along the front lines up to Monday night.
• The heaviest fighting continues in the Donetsk region on Ukraine’s eastern front and Russia’s western Kursk region. Ukraine’s military said the intensity remains unchanged since the ceasefire was supposed to begin.
• Moscow called the 30-day ceasefire an excuse by Europe to “provide a breather for Kyiv to restore its military potential and continue its confrontation with Russia”.