WASHINGTON — President Trump’s sweeping act of clemency for rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol also should apply to a man charged with planting pipe bombs near the national headquarters of the Democratic and Republican parties on the eve of the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, the suspect’s attorneys argue in a bid to get his case dismissed.
In a court filing Monday, defense attorneys assert that Trump’s blanket pardons extend to the charges against Brian J. Cole Jr. because his alleged conduct on Jan. 5, 2021, is “inextricably tethered” to what happened at the Capitol the next day. They’re asking U.S. District Judge Amir Ali to throw out the case before trial.
Justice Department prosecutors didn’t immediately respond in writing to the defense’s request. In a previous court filing, prosecutors said Cole, under questioning by FBI agents, denied that his actions were related to the Jan. 6 proceedings at the Capitol.
On his first day back in the White House last year, Trump pardoned, commuted prison sentences and ordered the dismissal of all 1,500-plus people charged in the attack by a mob of his supporters.
Nearly a year later, Cole was arrested on charges that he placed two pipe bombs outside both the Republican and the Democratic national committees’ headquarters in Washington the night before the riot. The devices didn’t detonate before law enforcement officers discovered them Jan. 6.
Cole’s attorneys said the Justice Department’s framing of the case has explicitly linked Cole’s alleged conduct on Jan. 5 to the events of Jan. 6, when rioters disrupted the joint session of Congress for certifying Joe Biden’s electoral victory over Trump.
“That is not happenstance sequencing in time. It is the government’s theory of Mr. Cole’s alleged motive and context,” defense lawyers wrote. “According to the government, the timing was chosen because of what was scheduled to occur at the Capitol on January 6.”
They also argued that prosecutors’ theory of a possible motive places Cole’s alleged conduct “in the same political controversy that animated the January 6 crowd.”
In court filings, prosecutors have said that Cole confessed to investigators after his Dec. 4 arrest. He told FBI agents that he felt “bewildered” by conspiracy theories related to the 2020 presidential election and “something just snapped” after “watching everything, just everything getting worse,” prosecutors said.
Cole has remained jailed since his arrest. His attorneys have appealed Ali’s refusal to order Cole’s pretrial release from custody. The judge hasn’t set a trial date yet.
Cole, 30, of Woodbridge, Virginia, has been diagnosed with autism and obsessive-compulsive disorder. His attorneys say he has no criminal record.
Authorities said they used phone records and other evidence to identify him as a suspect in a crime that confounded the FBI for more than four years.
“Reckless war of choice.” US House of Representatives Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries criticised Donald Trump for what he called a failure to adequately prepare for the consequences of launching a war on Iran.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Members of the NATO alliance are denying U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that they send warships to help protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after frequent Iranian attacks. As we noted yesterday, the president said that “If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.”
“This is not our war; we did not start it,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Berlin on Monday. “We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end to the conflict, but sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that.”
WATCH: German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius:
We did not start this war.
What does the world expect, what does Donald Trump expect from a handful or two handfuls of European frigates to achieve there in the Strait of Hormuz, which the powerful American Navy cannot manage… https://t.co/lO4WR2zly3pic.twitter.com/MWwu3U4xyS
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul doesn’t see NATO playing a role in dealing with the blockade of the Strait.
“I don’t see that NATO has made any decision in this direction or could assume responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz,” he said Monday ahead of a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Brussels. “If that were the case, then the NATO bodies would address it accordingly.”
Wadephul added that despite the volatile situation in the Middle East, Ukraine remained Europe’s top security priority, the BBC noted. When the prices for oil and gas rise, he explained, it contributes to Russia’s war chest.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Wadephul on Iran War:
Will we soon be an active part of this conflict? No.
We will not participate in this conflict.
We want to participate in negotiations, because security for the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea will only be achieved through a… pic.twitter.com/J6cJNxXWsO
“Blackmail is not what I wish for,” he stated, adding that NATO is there to react when members are attacked, not for all defensive or military requests, Bloomberg News noted.
“I want to remind that none of us has been directly attacked,” he said. “There are no grounds for now to invoke Article 5,” he added, referencing the alliance’s collective defense clause.
Germany and Luxembourg joined Japan and Australia in rejecting Trump’s call for help in reopening the Strait, at least for now.
“Let me be clear, that won’t be, and it’s never envisioned to be, a NATO mission,” he said, adding that Britain will not be “drawn into the wider war.”
Britain “is working with allies on a collective plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore freedom of navigation in the Middle East but it will not be easy, ” Starmer posited, according to Reuters.
“Ultimately, we have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability in the (oil) market. That is not a simple task,” Starmer told reporters.
Britain and Germany, after Australia, become the latest allies not jumping to send warships to protect the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump wants. https://t.co/wxDkAnoIa4
Some nations are willing to listen to any plan Trump might present to NATO.
“We have to look into it and consider it,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys told Bloomberg TV in an interview in Brussels. “I would look for an in-depth debate within NATO.”
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski concurred.
“If there is a request with NATO to discuss the issue, we will of course consider it out of respect and sympathy for our allies,” he said.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas encouraged member states to consider expanding their Aspides naval mission, originally launched in 2024 while Houthis attacked shipping in the nearby Red Sea.
“If we want to have security in this region, it would be easiest to already use the operation we have in the region and maybe change a bit,” Kallas said.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz hurts the global economy and helps Russia fund its war.
It is affecting our partners in the region and is dangerous for global energy supplies.
Today, EU Foreign Ministers will discuss how to better protect shipping in the region, including… pic.twitter.com/iJSVdT7FqA
While the Aspides vessels are currently allowed to navigate in the Strait of Hormuz, its mandate doesn’t allow more than that,” Bloomberg News posited, adding that EU countries would have to unanimously agree to change those directives, which could be difficult.
“There is no change to Aspides mission or posture,” Lt Colonel Socrates Ravanos, an Aspides spokesman, told us on Monday. “EUNAVFOR ASPIDES continues to carry out its mandate, ensuring the protection and security of commercial maritime traffic within its area of operations.”
The operation’s “assets in the area of operation monitor the situation closely and remain vigilant,” he continued. “Maritime security developments in the region are continuously assessed in coordination with partners and relevant maritime authorities.”
Concern over Iranian attacks in the Strait date back many decades. Back in 2012, The Washington Institute estimated that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class (mine counter measure) MCM vessels.
The Washington Institute estimated years ago that clearing the Strait of Hormuz could require up to 16 Avenger-class MCM vessels.⁰ The Navy has three MCM-equipped LCS in the region. https://t.co/vFTRppfdwL
As we previously reported, however, the last four of those decommissioned vessels left Bahrain in January aboard a larger heavy lift vessel.
The Navy has three MCM-equipped Littoral Combat Ships in the region, Hunterbrook noted. As we reported yesterday, two Independence class Littoral Combat Ships configured for mine-sweeping duties that were previously deployed to the Middle East showed up in port in Malaysia. Both the USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara had arrived in Bahrain in the past year or so to take the place of a group of now-decommissioned Avenger class mine hunters. You can read more about that in our story here.
In Washington, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Monday reiterated that the administration is forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up and do more to open the Strait of Hormuz, and our NATO allies especially need to step up,” she told Fox News. “President Trump has been very frank with our friends in NATO for a very long time… now he’s calling on them to do the right thing.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on the administration forming a naval coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz: “The president is speaking with our allies in Europe and also many of our partners in the Gulf and Arab world to encourage them to step up… pic.twitter.com/SgxvPSExab
In his latest update on Epic Fury, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper on Monday said attacks are “zeroed in on dismantling Iran’s decades old threat to the free flow of commerce through the Strait of Hormuz, through a combination of air, land and maritime capabilities. We have successfully destroyed over 100 Iranian naval vessels, and we aren’t done.”
Iranian attacks on shipping seem to have tapered off.
Between the start of Epic Fury on Feb. 28 and March 12, The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) office received 20 reports of incidents affecting vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. There were 16 attacks on ships, and four reports of suspicious activity. There have been no verified reports of attacks since March 12, according to UKMTO.
Amid the debate on how to protect Strait shipping, the first non-Iranian ship has transited the Strait with its AIS transponder on, according to the MarineTraffic open-source tracking site. Several observers have noted how close to the Iranian shore these ships are traveling. This could be due to Iranian mines, even though Trump on Monday repeated the assertion that Epic Fury attacks have destroyed all Iran’s mine-laying ships. Mines can be laid by small boats and Iran has practices doing exactly this in the past. This could also just be a safe deconfliction corridor Iran is using for safe passage.
The U.S. is “fine” with some Iranian, Indian and Chinese ships getting through the Strait of Hormuz for now, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday.
The closure of the Strait has forced several nations to alter their energy policies. Japan started the largest-ever release of oil from its strategic reserves on Monday, according to the Japan Times. The 80 million-barrel effort comes as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and crude oil prices continue to soar.
“The release — 15 days’ worth of domestic demand from mandatory private reserves and one month from national reserves — was the seventh ever conducted in the nation,” the publication noted.
BREAKING Japan says it is beginning the release of its strategic oil reserves after the International Energy Agency indicated that the release would begin in Asia and Oceania before other regions.
South Korea is also taking action in the wake of the Strait of Hormuz closure. It is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG, explains Bloomberg energies and commodities columnist Javier Blas in a post on X.
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG
The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation that Europe didn’t have in 2022
— איתי בלומנטל 🇮🇱 Itay Blumental (@ItayBlumental) March 16, 2026
An Indian-flagged crude tanker had a close call when the UAE’s Fujairah port came under attack on Saturday while it was loading crude at the oil terminal, according to the Times of India. The vessel sailed out safely the next day with everyone onboard unhurt.
JAG LAADKI an Indian flagged Crude Oil Tanker is being escorted out of the Gulf of Oman by the Indian Navy as maritime security in the region remains tense pic.twitter.com/0YdR06QxDJ
Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on X, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter.
(Reuters) – Iran has asked India to release three tankers seized in February as part of talks seeking the safe passage of Indian‑flagged or India‑bound vessels out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
In a brief chat with PBS News, Trump repeated his stance, since denied by Tehran, that Iran wants to negotiate.
“We’re doing very well,” he told the outlet, reiterating comments about destroying Iran’s military. He added: “They want to make a deal but they’re not ready to make a deal in my opinion.”
Just had a brief phone call with @potus this morning and asked him several questions about Iran. He noted when he answered that it was not a good time to chat because he was in the middle of a “very important meeting” about it – but said the following:
In addition to frequent conversations with Israeli leaders, Trump is also talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince.
“According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard — essentially repeating the advice that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who died in 2015, repeatedly gave to Washington: “Cut off the head of the snake, according to The New York Times.
Just as the war is poised to escalate this leak could be adding fuel to fire. According to @nytimes “Mr. Trump is talking regularly to Arab leaders, particularly Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the…
Axios reported that “some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time” before an attack on Iran.
“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,’” the source told the outlet. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.”
A source close to the administration said some key officials around Trump were reluctant or wanted more time.
“He ended up saying, ‘I just want to do it,'” the source said. “He grossly overestimated his ability to topple the regime short of sending in ground troops.” https://t.co/lJWB1SyOhM
The America class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli is continuing to speed toward the Middle East after the Pentagon ordered a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to bolster forces in the region.
The vessel, along with two Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts, was last seen about 420 miles from Manilla, pushing deep into the South China Sea, according to open-source investigator MT Anderson.
“Running an aviation-optimized amphibious assault ship at high speed with a dedicated twin-destroyer escort is a heavily protected, offensive posture,” Anderson assessed. “They are moving with purpose, bringing a major Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) umbrella with them as they sprint toward the theater.”
HIGH-SPEED TRANSIT: USS Tripoli Flanked by Heavy Escorts
OSINT Update (Mar 15 imagery): Tracking the USS Tripoli (LHA-7) as she continues her rapid push toward the Middle East for Operation Epic Fury. She is not making this run alone.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Monday it had begun a “targeted ground operation against key targets” in southern Lebanon, pushing more forces deeper into the area as part of an expanded buffer zone, The Times of Israel reported. The move came after Hezbollah began attacking Israel earlier this month amid the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said the operation would continue until Hezbollah no longer poses a threat to the residents of northern Israel, and said displaced Lebanese would not return to their homes until then.
IDF’s 401st Brigade troops of the 91st Division carry out precision raids in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/eYwjr2jwXG
Hezbollah reportedly used its Almas missiles for the first time in this conflict. You can read more about these weapons in our story here.
#Lebanon: Hezbollah has used its first Almas missile amid ongoing conflict with Israel.
While Hezbollah primarily uses anti-tank missiles such as the Konkurs and Kornet, the Iranian-made Almas (a copy of the Israeli Spike) offers more advanced capabilities.
The IDF also said it attacked an Iranian space-related compound that researcher Fabian Hinz said was used to conduct research on exoatmospheric guidance.
The Iranians were conducting a lot of research and development work on exoatmospheric guidance technologies as part of their missile and SLV programs. Would not be surprised if they were eventually aiming to develop direct-ascent anti-satellite capabilities as well. https://t.co/sugj1KrDPq
China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy, Al Jazeera reported on X.
BREAKING: China’s Foreign Ministry is calling for an immediate halt to military operations in the Middle East, warning that further regional escalation could hit the global economy. pic.twitter.com/rWyDn2DxgV
Online flight trackers say a Qatari Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week, following a similar flight the week before.
The nature of these flights is unclear. However, with Rzeszów serving as the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, it is possible the flights may have been delivering air defense interceptors originally intended for Ukraine or transporting Ukrainian counter drone specialists. We just don’t know.
A Qatar Air Force C-17A strategic military transport plane flew to Rzeszów, Poland, earlier last week.
A UAE Air Force C-17A also carried out a similar flight to the same destination last week.
Rzeszów is the primary hub for military aid being transshipped to Ukraine, so the… pic.twitter.com/o5JjxEulpc
The flow of videos out of Iran, already greatly reduced because of the regime’s internet blockage, has slowed even further.
“There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours. I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access,” BBC journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh noted on X.
There’s been a notable drop in the number of videos coming out of Iran in the last 24 hours.
I’ve now heard from multiple sources inside Iran that the government has further tightened its imposed internet blackout by closing loopholes and targeting those with Starlink access. https://t.co/KOCGBS5fXr
Still, some videos are making it out, like this one purporting to show Iranian Basij paramilitary forces hiding in a school.
Basij forces and government security agents had gathered inside a school, a citizen who sent a video to Iran International said. pic.twitter.com/RkEjEtMCMK
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 16, 2026
UPDATES:
We have concluded our rolling coverage for the day.
UPDATE: 5:48 PM EST –
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi pushed back on claims that he has established backchannel communications with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.
My last contact with Mr. Witkoff was prior to his employer’s decision to kill diplomacy with another illegal military attack on Iran.
Any claim to the contrary appears geared solely to mislead oil traders and the public.
With speculation rife that is he is badly wounded or perhaps even dead, new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will reportedly give a television speech in the coming days. Khamenie, who Iranian officials have admitted was wounded in an airstrike, has not been seen in public since.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry Advisor tells Lebanese Al-Jadeed that the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will deliver a televised speech “in the coming days.”
The advisor stated that Khamenei is in direct contact with military and political leaders, “and the reason for his…
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) March 16, 2026
Speaking to reporters at The White House, Trump extolled the virtues of the B-2A Spirit stealth bomber.
“Let me hug that little sucker,” he said while asking an aide to hand him a model of the aircraft the president keeps in the Oval Office.
UPDATE: 5:24 PM EST –
MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, home of the command running the war in Iran, is reopening its main gate after a bomb scare earlier today, a spokesman for the 6th Air Refueling Wing, the base host unit, confirmed to The War Zone.
“The incident has been terminated and we are ready to open the main gate and visitor center,” the spokesman told us. The base, however, was not on lockdown.
MacDill is home to CENTCOM, U.S. Special Operations Command as well as the 6th Air Refueling Wing (6th ARW) and the 927th Air Refueling Wing and dozens of other mission partners. Last week, three airmen assigned to the 6th ARW were among six killed in a crash of a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker.
Today’s situation unfolded this afternoon when a suspicious package was found at the Visitors Center near the Dale Mabry entrance gate, according to the FBI. The bureau sent its Special Agent Bomb Techs to the scene, who worked it along with Tampa Police, the FBI said in a post on X.
The main gate at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, was reopened Monday afternoon after a bomb scare. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Vernon L. Fowler Jr MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa is home to both U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Vernon L. Fowler Jr.
UPDATE: 4:23 PM EST –
Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump seemed surprised that Iran would actually attack its neighbors if it came under fire.
The president was responding to a question about whether he was briefed about possible Iranian strikes on nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Trump on Iran:
I heard they were sending missiles to the UAE. I said, “That’s strange, you know? The UAE is like the banker for Iran.” They’re sort of the banker. Qatar, their neighbors — they got along okay.
A direct communications channel between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been reactivated in recent days, Axios reported, citing a U.S. official and a source with knowledge.
🇮🇷📲🇺🇸A direct communications channel between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi & U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official & a source with knowledge. Read the story by @MarcACaputo & me on @Axioshttps://t.co/izoFpwZV5m
Araghchi lashed out at comments made by U.S. War Secretary Pete Hegseth that America would show “no quarter” in Epic Fury.
“When the U.S. Secretary of War declares ‘no quarter.’ he doesn’t project strength,” Araghchi stated on X. “He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.”
When the U.S. Secretary of War declares “no quarter”, he doesn’t project strength. He conveys moral bankruptcy and ignorance about law of armed conflict. We advise him to review the Hague Convention and Rome Statute of the ICC, unless he aspires to join Netanyahu as war criminal.
The IDF Chief of the General Staff approved plans to continue operations in the Northern Command.
“The impact of the strike and the weakening of the radical regime in Iran is also felt in the campaign against Hezbollah,” said Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. “To date, the Northern Command has eliminated more than 400 Hezbollah terrorists.”
הרמטכ״ל באישור תוכניות להמשך בפיקוד הצפון: ״ההדף של הפגיעה והחלשת המשטר הרדיקאלי באיראן מורגש גם במערכה מול חיזבאללה; עד כה פיקוד צפון חיסל למעלה מ-400 מחבלי חיזבאללה״
״אנו נערכים להמשך ומתגברים את פיקוד הצפון בכוחות נוספים על מנת להרחיב את הפעולה הצבאית, להעמיק את הפגיעה… pic.twitter.com/HrBMLk9LFf
CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins confirmed to The War Zone that more than 200 troops have been wounded or injured across seven countries since the start of Epic Fury. The injuries took place in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
“The vast majority of these injuries have been minor, and more than 180 troops have already returned to duty,” he explained, adding that 10 troops were seriously injured.
In addition to the wounded, seven U.S. troops have been killed in Iranian attacks, the most serious being March 1 when six Army soldiers were killed in an Iranian drone attack on Kuwait. Another six Air Force airmen died when their KC-135 refueling plane crashed in Iraq, reportedly after colliding with another KC-135.
CENTCOM released its latest Epic Fury update, saying it struck more than 7,000 targets, flew more than 6,500 combat sorties and damaged or destroyed more than 100 Iranian ships.
CENTCOM
Baghdad continues to be hit.
In what looks like a scene from a video game, a counter rocket, artillery, and mortar C-RAM system is seen engaging with a drone over Baghdad.
C-Ram successful interception of a drone/rocket launched by Iranian-backed militias in Baghdad this evening. The Target was the U.S embassy. pic.twitter.com/EuHGx705gR
Footage of a reported coalition interception of an Iranian drone can be seen in the following video.
Not all the interceptions apparently worked. A drone reportedly slammed into the Royal Tulip al-Rasheed hotel in the Iraqi capital.
The Spanish Ministry of Defense confirmed on Sunday that it temporarily transferred its special forces from Iraq due to worsening safety and failure to conduct missions securely.“The Special Operations Task Group was relocated to safe areas because the security situation prevented it from continuing training operations with Iraqi forces,” according to the ministry.
GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption, according to Kpler.
Hormuz GPS disruption continues
GPS interference in and around the Strait of Hormuz has continued to rise since the crisis began, suggesting a persistent and geographically dispersed campaign of electronic disruption. This interference is triggering false AIS positioning,… pic.twitter.com/VXiaxHwFat
Wild video was posted on X of an Israeli interception of an Iranian ballistic missile. No injuries were reported, according to Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel “Mannie” Fabian.
No injuries are reported in Iran’s latest ballistic missile salvo on Israel, the sixth since midnight, and the first in some six hours.
A small number of missiles were launched, which were likely intercepted, according to initial military assessments.
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026
UPDATE: 2:42 PM EST –
The war with Iran is expected to last at least another month, according to Israel media, citing a senior Israeli official.
“Israel is reportedly preparing for an extended phase of fighting as it seeks to further weaken the Iranian regime and capitalize on what it views as signs of internal instability within the country’s leadership,” The Times of Israel reported. “According to the source, U.S. President Donald Trump supports Israel in continuing the campaign.”
We reached out to the White House for comment.
❗️ Senior Israeli source: Iran war will continue for longer than expected; we’re preparing to fight for another month at least; Trump is on board.
NATO responded to our query about debate over sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz.
“Allies have already stepped up to provide additional security in the Mediterranean,” a NATO official told us. “We are aware that individual Allies are talking with the US and others on what more they might do, including in the context of security in the Strait of Hormuz.”
In the first 96 hours of Epic Fury, the US-led coalition “expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types,” according to a new report from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
“This carries a munitions-only replacement bill of $10–$16 billion in four days,” FPRI posited. “This represents a significant industrial burden for replacing some munitions that cannot be replenished in 4 days, 4 weeks, or even 4 months. Worse, those estimates do not include combat losses of warfighting assets or damage to bases and the high-end air defense enabling architecture.”
We have an important new analysis of munitions used in the first 96 hours of the war with Iran out at the @FPRI (Foreign Policy Research Institute).
In the first 96 hours, the US-led coalition expended approximately 5,197 munitions across 35 types. This carries a munitions-only…
Video has emerged showing intense flames at Dubai International Airport’s fuel storage area after an Iranian attack.
CENTCOM posted additional video of its attacks on Iranian targets.
Thousands of Iranian military targets have been struck by U.S. forces to neutralize threats posed by the Iranian regime now and into the future. pic.twitter.com/dE4VNxjjW1
MT Anderson provided an update on the location of the Tripoli. The ship was spotted on AIS North of the Riau Archipelago, transiting the southern South China Sea at 18 knots.
The Iraqi armed faction Kataib Hezbollah announced the death of its spokesperson, known as Abu Ali al-Askari. He was reportedly killed in a U.S. airstrike after a wave of attacks against U.S. facilities in Iraq.
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم بكل فخر ورضا بقضاء الله وقدره، نزف لكم نبأ استشهاد الحاج أبو علي العسكري إلى جنات الخلد. ذلك الصوت الشجاع الذي لم يخرس أمام الظلم، واللسان الصادق الذي زرع في نفوس المجاهدين معاني الإباء والصمود. لقد كان الشهيد شريان التواصل بين ميادين التضحية ومنصات…
— صابرين نيوز – Sabereen news (@sabreenS11) March 16, 2026
Six people were injured in a Hezbollah rocket attack in Nahariya, according to medics. The town is located about eight miles south of the Lebanese border.
Six people are injured in a Hezbollah rocket strike on a home in Nahariya, medics say.
Magen David Adom says it treated two adults and four minors with signs of smoke inhalation. They are all listed in good condition.
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 16, 2026
Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry (MFA) condemned the latest Israeli incursion into Lebanon.
“The Netanyahu government’s collective punishment and genocidal policies in Lebanon will lead to a new humanitarian catastrophe in the region,” the MFA said in a statement on Monday. “We reaffirm our solidarity with Lebanon amid these attacks, which violate its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
UPDATE: 1:50 PM EST –
Speaking at a board meeting of the Trump Kennedy Center, the president claimed he predicted that Iran would attack shipping in the Strait.
NOW – Trump says he predicted Iran would weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, adding, “I predicted all of it. I predicted Osama bin Laden would knock out the World Trade Center. I made that prediction a year before he did it.” pic.twitter.com/6VqkvzamW0
The president added that he does not know Iran mined the Strait.
He also said the U.S. has hit 7,000 targets since launching Epic Fury.
Trump on Iran:
Since the beginning of the conflict, we struck more than 7,000 targets across Iran; these have been mostly military and commercial targets. pic.twitter.com/ppiyztSRDj
France has reportedly boosted its deployment of Rafale fighters to Jordan and UAE to 24, more than double the usual 10, according to French defense observer Tom Antonov. The jets have already intercepted dozens of Iranian drones, he added in a post on X.
The MQ-9 Reaper drones have played a big role in the war, and have been heavily targeted by Iran. To date, the U.S. has lost about a dozen Reapers, including one accidentally shot down by an ally, according to The Wall Street Journal.
NATO is considering boosting its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter
“The military alliance already deployed a battery in eastern Turkey to protect an early-warning radar used to track missiles across the Middle East,” the outlet stated. “It’s now considering sending another Patriot missile-defense system to bolster an airbase where American troops are stationed.”
NATO is looking into reinforcing further its ballistic missile defense capacity in Turkey against threats from neighboring Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. https://t.co/eQzealf1qp
WASHINGTON — The Department of Homeland Security will soon be under new management, an opportunity to reset President Trump’s immigration agenda or to double down on his signature campaign promise to conduct the largest deportation operation in American history.
The White House’s political director recently encouraged party lawmakers during a retreat at the Republican president’s golf club in Florida to focus on immigration enforcement against criminals, a pivot from the mass deportation agenda he ran on. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the aggressive operations have created a “hiccup” for the party, which is now embarking on a “course correction.”
Yet all indications are that Trump’s mass deportation operation is not stalling but intensifying, with billions of dollars being spent to hire Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, build warehouse detention sites and meet the administration’s goal of rounding up and removing some 1 million immigrants from the U.S. this year.
“We are at an interesting moment where it has been an inflection point — the public has finally seen what mass detention and mass deportation mean,” said Sarah Mehta, who tracks the issue at the American Civil Liberties Union.
“This is not an agency that’s slowing down,” she said. “They’re really going forward with some of the cruelest policies.”
White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the president’s policies have sent immigrants out of the U.S., either through forced deportations or on their own, and sealed up the U.S.-Mexico border.
“Nobody is changing the administration’s immigration enforcement agenda,” she said.
Senators ready to grill Trump’s DHS nominee over deportations
The questions put Homeland Security at a crossroads. Secretary Kristi Noem is on her way out, and Trump’s nominee to replace her, Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, appears this week for Senate confirmation hearings.
After the intense deportation sweeps in Minneapolis and other cities — and the deaths of at least three U.S. citizens at the hands of officers — Democratic lawmakers are refusing to provide routine funding unless the department changes its policies.
At the same time, those who believe Trump won the White House with his mass deportation agenda are disappointed the administration did not achieve its goals last year and insist he must do better.
“There has been a lot of talk in Congress and now in the White House about kind of backing away from President Trump’s, candidate Trump’s, mass deportation promise,” said Rosemary Jenks, co-founder of the Immigration Accountability Project, which argues for deportations.
“We believe that now is an opportunity,” she said. “We’ve got to get the deportation numbers up.”
A nation of immigrants no longer?
The debate is playing out as the United States, celebrating its 250th year, squares its founding as a nation of immigrants with images of masked federal agents breaking car windows and detaining people suspected of being in the U.S. without proper legal standing.
The Congress, controlled by Republicans, provided some $170 billion in last year’s tax cuts bill to fuel the effort, more than tripling the budget of ICE.
GOP Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri, in a fiery speech, fought back against the Democrats’ proposed restraints. “This question about deporting illegal immigrants was on the ballot. President Trump was not bashful,” he said. “And the American people supported the idea that we are going to deport people.”
Yet there are signs of cracks in the Trump coalition. Some Republicans prefer what one called a more humane approach and are sharing their views with Mullin.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), considered a stalwart against illegal immigration, said in his state it’s immigrants who milk most of the dairy cows, and he’s heard from restaurant groups that rely on immigrants to fill jobs.
“Can we just turn back the clock and have … all these people who came in here illegally, just be back home?” he asked.
“In terms of actually implementing that, it’s a lot tougher — particularly, in fact, when you realize a lot of these people, most of them, came here to seek opportunity, wanting freedom,” he said. “They’re working, supporting their family, contributing to organizations and community.”
Mass deportation group wants more
The Mass Deportation Coalition, a group of conservative organizations including the Heritage Foundation and Erik Prince, founder of the security firm Blackwater, was formed recently to keep the administration on track.
It calls last year’s focus on removing violent criminal immigrants “phase one” and says “phase two” should focus this year on deporting immigrants beyond those with violent criminal histories.
Mark Morgan, who served as acting head of ICE and Customs and Border Protection during Trump’s first term and is part of the coalition, said that doesn’t mean roving patrols through Home Depot parking lots. It’s about strategic enforcement focused on immigrants at worksites and those who have overstayed visas and whom a judge has already ordered removed, he said.
But they’re facing opposition from within the Republican Party, Morgan said, particularly from those who want to narrow deportation to mainly criminals and from business groups that want to ease up on worksite enforcement.
“The Republicans that are saying that their definition of targeted enforcement is only criminal, they’re wrong. They’re on the wrong side of this,” he said.
“That’s why you see some of the base that’s really becoming apoplectic because they’re like, ‘Wait a minute. You’re talking about only removing criminals now? That’s not what you promised,’” Morgan said.
What’s coming next
The deportation advocates as well as those working to protect the rights of immigrants see that the Trump administration’s best chance at reaching its goals is creating an environment so unwelcoming for immigrants that they just leave — what’s often called self-deportation.
Mehta, at the ACLU, expects the administration will step up efforts to end temporary permissions that allow immigrants to remain in the U.S. — particularly refugees and asylum seekers — while their cases are making their way through the system. She called it a “deliberate attempt to make people undocumented — to take away lawful status — and then to be able to enforce against them.”
Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said he fears that more nonviolent immigrants will be rounded up to fill the new warehouses being equipped as the Trump administration tries to reach its deportation goals.
That’s unacceptable, he said, and among “the key questions that Senator Mullin will have to answer at his confirmation hearing.”
Mascaro, Santana and Cappelletti write for the Associated Press.
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court agreed Monday to rule on whether the Trump administration may end the temporary protection that had been extended in the past to migrants who live and work in the United States.
At issue are legal protections for about 6,000 Syrians and up to 350,000 Haitians.
The court’s announcement signals the justices want to resolve this issue in a written opinion rather through emergency appeals.
Twice last year, the court’s conservatives set aside decisions from judges in San Francisco who said President Trump’s Homeland Security secretary had overstepped her authority.
But those decisions did not set clear precedents, and in recent weeks, judges in New York and Washington, D.C., blocked the administration’s plan to end the special protections for Haitians and Syrians.
Frustrated by what he labeled “indefensible” decisions, Trump’s Solicitor Gen. D. John Sauer advised the court to hear arguments and issue a written ruling on the issue.
The justices on Monday agreed to just that. Arguments will be heard in April, and a decision will be handed down by July.
Immigrant-rights advocates argued the repeal of the special protection would be cruel and unjust to migrants who have established lives and careers in this country.
In 1990, Congress authorized giving temporary shelter to non-citizens from countries experiencing armed conflict, natural disaster or “extraordinary and temporary conditions” that prevent them from returning there.
In 2012, the Homeland Security secretary extended this protection to Syrians in response to a “brutal crackdown” engineered by its then-President Bashar al-Assad.
Last year, citing Assad’s fall from power, Trump’s Secretary Kristi Noem proposed to cancel the temporary protection for Syrians. Lawyers for the Syrians questioned how this could be seen as an emergency requiring an immediate ruling.
They said about 6,100 Syrians who have lived here lawfully for years.
They are “highly sought-after doctors and medical professionals, reporters, students, teachers, business owners, caretakers, and others who have been repeatedly vetted and by definition have virtually no criminal history. The government apparently needs urgent authority to send them to a country in the middle of an active war,” the lawyers said.
In 2010, the Obama administration extended the protection to Haiti after an earthquake caused death and damage in Port-au-Prince, the capital.
Judges in New York and Washington blocked those repeals and said the high court had given “no explanation” for its decision upholding the repeal for Venezuelans.
Those judges said the Supreme Court’s earlier orders orders “involved a TPS designation of a different country, with different factual circumstances, and different grounds for resolution by the district court.”
Sauer pointed to a provision in the 1990 law that says judges have no authority to second-guess the government’s decision to end it.
“There is no judicial review of any determination of the [Secretary] with respect to the designation, or termination or extension of a designation, of a foreign state under this subsection,” the law says.
In the three weeks since Trump’s attorney filed his emergency appeal, there have been two significant changes since then.
LONDON — The BBC filed a motion Monday asking a U.S. court to dismiss President Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit against it.
The British national broadcaster said that the Florida court where the case is expected to be heard does not have jurisdiction over it. It also argued that Trump could not show that it intended to misrepresent him.
Trump filed a lawsuit in December over the way a BBC documentary edited a speech he gave on Jan. 6, 2021. The claim seeks $5 billion in damages for defamation and a further $5 billion for unfair trade practices.
Last month a judge at the federal court for the Southern District of Florida provisionally set a trial date for February 2027.
The BBC argued that the case should be thrown out because the documentary was never aired in Florida or the U.S.
“We have therefore challenged jurisdiction of the Florida court and filed a motion to dismiss the president’s claim,” the corporation said in a statement.
In a 34-page document, the BBC also argued that Trump failed to “plausibly allege facts showing that defendants knowingly intended to create a false impression.”
Trump’s case “falls well short of the high bar of actual malice,” it added.
The documentary — titled “Trump: A Second Chance?” — was aired days before the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The program spliced together three quotes from two sections of a speech Trump made on Jan. 6, 2021, into what appeared to be one quote, in which Trump appeared to explicitly encourage his supporters to storm the Capitol building.
Among the parts cut out was a section where Trump said he wanted supporters to demonstrate peacefully.
The broadcaster’s chairman has apologized to Trump over the edit of the speech, admitting that it gave “the impression of a direct call for violent action.” But the BBC rejects claims it defamed him. The furor triggered the resignations of the BBC’s top executive and its head of news last year.
WHITE SALMON, Wash. — Seth McBride’s life was forever changed on a snowy mountainside in British Columbia.
McBride was — and is — a thrill-seeker. Growing up in Juneau, Ala., with the untamed outdoors as his stomping ground, he loved to rock climb, mountain bike and, especially, strap on his skis and fly, soaring headlong off heart-pounding cliffs, crags and cornices.
A few months before his senior year in high school, McBride was at a terrain park at Whistler Blackcomb resort. He was 17. He launched a maneuver he’d completed many times before, a back flip off a steep jump. Only this time, he over-accelerated, over-rotated and came down on his neck. Right away he knew something was wrong.
“As soon as I landed,” McBride recalled more than 25 years later, “I lost all sensation in my legs and my lower back.”
The prognosis was grim; doctors told McBride he probably would never walk again, and he hasn’t.
But that’s scarcely slowed him down.
Views of the 47th president, from the ground up
Before they had kids, McBride and his wife biked 6,500 miles — McBride using a special, hand-cranked cycle — from Portland, Ore., to the southern tip of Argentina. He’s traveled the world as a wheelchair rugby player, winning gold, silver and bronze medals at Paralympic Games in Beijing, Rio de Janeiro and London.
McBride — adventurer, daredevil — appears unflappable. Until it comes to air travel.
It’s not the hassles and aggravation that most people put up with. Every trip requires McBride, 43, to undergo a special regimen, dehydrating himself so he won’t have to use the bathroom in flight. Every excursion includes the likelihood of being uncomfortably jostled or, worse, dropped as he’s being transferred to his seat. He can never be certain his wheelchair, his lifeline, won’t be damaged or missing once his plane lands.
“There are very few places or in my life that I feel less independent” than an airport, said McBride, who still plays competitive rugby at the club level. “None of the systems are set up for wheelchair users to be able to manage things on their own.”
Wheelchairs at Portland International Airport. The all-purpose equipment can’t serve the various needs of disabled travelers.
(Will Matsuda / For The Times)
For a time, as the Biden administration was winding down, it looked as though that was about to change somewhat. The federal government issued a set of regulations that would require airlines, among other things, to assume liability for damaged and delayed wheelchairs and improve training for staff working with passengers facing mobility issues.
But the Trump administration, which has made deregulation one of its highest imperatives, put those requirements on hold while a trade association and several major airlines sue to keep the changes from taking effect.
For McBride and others like him, it’s a disappointing setback that follows years of pressing Washington to make air transit just a bit more decent and humane.
“It sucks,” McBride said of the dignity-deflating status of a wheelchair traveler. “I know quite a few people who simply won’t fly anymore.”
Passengers forced to surrender their wheelchairs “must rely on airline staff and contractors to properly handle a wheelchair or scooter and return it in a timely manner in the condition it was received. Advocates have stressed … that, when an individual’s wheelchair or scooter is damaged by an airline, the individual’s mobility, health and freedom are impacted until the device can be returned, repaired or replaced.”
What’s more, “Advocates note that wheelchairs are often custom fitted to meet the needs and shapes of each user. Spending time in an ill-fitting chair can cause serious injury, such as pressure sores, and even death because of a subsequent infection.”
The Department of Transportation estimated that, in 2024, 1 of every 100 wheelchairs or scooters placed on a domestic flight was lost, damaged or delayed. Which may not seem like a terribly large number, unless you’re the person whose well-being, and even survival, depends on their wheelchair or scooter being at the ready and operational upon arrival.
Mia Ives-Rublee directs the Disability Justice Initiative at the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank. She said airlines, which cater to luxury travelers and treat everyone else like sardines, have long put profit and expedience ahead of the needs of their disabled passengers.
“We’ve seen this tension continue to build as disabled people become more active and the world becomes more accessible. They want to travel, or have jobs that require travel,” said Ives-Rublee. While discrimination is plainly illegal, “Airlines aren’t doing enough to protect our devices,” which has the effect of making it “very difficult for disabled people to travel.”
Ives-Rublee has had nearly a half dozen wheelchairs broken by airlines in the last 20 years, which can be costly as well as life-threatening. A manually operated wheelchair can run as much as $2,000, Ives-Rublee said. A mechanized wheelchair can cost as much as a used car.
McBride mainly travels from Portland’s airport. “There are few places in my life” he feels less independent.
(Will Matsuda / For The Times)
(McBride said he’s suffered nicks and scrapes on his “everyday chair.” Worse, was the damage done to wheelchairs he uses in rugby competition, which “is obviously a big deal” when he’s traveling for a match.)
In their lawsuit opposing the rules change, airlines and their trade group said the Biden administration overstepped its authority and the new requirements were too burdensome. Strict liability for wheelchair damage also could expose air carriers to “unreasonable financial risk,” the suit claimed.
The wheelchair rules were supposed to take effect just before Biden left office. The Trump administration postponed them until March 2025, then pushed implementation to August 2025. Now, the Department of Transportation says it will issue a new rule this coming August, with a 60-day comment period to follow — meaning no change will come until at least 2027.
Ives-Rublee hasn’t much hope for relief.
“Given the nature of the administration right now, I doubt they’re putting much effort into protecting” the Biden-era regulations, she said
::
The last thing McBride wants is anyone feeling sorry for him. He’s no victim.
“It was something s— that happened to me,” he said of the accident that left him paralyzed. “But s— stuff happens to people all the time. What matters is how you move forward and what you can do with your life after that happens.”
McBride was seated at the kitchen table of his custom-built home, two miles above the Columbia River in rural Washington state. The house — one level, bright and airy, with concrete floors to smooth the path of his wheelchair — perches at the end of a steep dirt road. A forest in the backyard gives his children, ages 4 and 8, the same freedom to romp through nature he enjoyed growing up in Alaska. There’s also a climbing wall in his son’s bedroom.
Working remotely, McBride writes for New Mobility, a magazine for wheelchair users, and heads communications and marketing for the United Spinal Assn., a nonprofit advocacy group.
His politics run to the left side of the spectrum. (On a cold, drizzly morning, McBride wore a black Oregon Ducks hoodie, honoring his alma mater, the University of Oregon, and its home in liberal Eugene.) Yet while he’s no Trump fan, McBride doesn’t consider making life easier for wheelchair users to be a partisan issue. After all, he pointed out, it was a Republican president, George H. W. Bush, who signed into law the landmark Americans With Disabilities Act.
“We’ve made a lot of progress as a community working with Republicans, working with Democrats,” he said, as the sun made a brief appearance, illuminating the Douglas firs outside his door. “The basic issues of people being able to access the same services and the same experiences as everyone else shouldn’t be political. … It’s a safety thing.”
He’s not unalterably opposed to deregulation, per se.
“I think it’s a huge issue within systems when it’s overly complex for companies or people to do anything,” McBride said. “But lots of time regulations are there for a reason. It’s when private companies aren’t necessarily doing a good enough job protecting the safety or the rights of all people within a society.”
Given a chance to address Trump or the head of his Transportation Department, Sean Duffy, McBride would say this: Come, let’s take a plane ride.
“Go on a trip with my rugby team and see what it’s like when you have multiple wheelchair users on the same plane,” he said, “and how difficult it is and why we feel like regulations are needed so we can have a modicum of safety and dignity when we’re flying.”
The cost of accommodation might take away some from the airlines’ bottom line. But certain things can’t be priced in dollars and cents.
The decision by United States President Donald Trump to launch a war on Iran has left many international law experts questioning if the world order established after World War II is actually working.
In his second presidential term, Trump seems to be wielding total power without restraint, and the system of checks and balances enshrined in the US Constitution appears to be failing to limit his power.
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Since Trump was sworn in in January 2025, he has ordered two unprovoked attacks on independent states, Venezuela and Iran; threatened to annex Greenland; strained traditional alliances with Europe; undermined the United Nations; and rattled international trade with his sweeping tariffs.
Previous constraints set by the UN system and international law appear supplanted by what Trump told reporters in January was a vision of power limited only by his “own morality”.
President Donald Trump holds the key to unlock the FIFA Club World Cup trophy, which he said is staying at the White House, requiring a replica to be presented to the tournament’s winners, Chelsea, in July 2025 [File: Pool via AP]
So what checks are there on Trump? Is he really free to attack states, set tariffs at will and, as leader of the world’s most powerful state, essentially dictate global policy? And if so, why are so many observers now saying his war on Iran is faltering?
Has international law put any checks on Trump?
Not so far.
According to analysts, both his attacks on Venezuela and Iran were in clear breach of international law and the UN Charter, principally the prohibition on the use of force under Article 2(4).
Debates about international law, how it has been geared over the decades to underpin the interests of the West and the US specifically, are hardly new. However, experts said, the Trump presidency has seen even the notional restraints of international law trampled underfoot.
Trump himself has brushed aside international law, saying in January that it would be up to him to decide when and how much international law applied to the US and his actions.
“In many respects, international law has historically served US interests, and self-interest should continue to generate US support for a rules-based order organised around the core principles enshrined in the UN Charter,” Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin who previously worked at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, told Al Jazeera, “But finding value in international law often requires adopting a long-term outlook that does not sit easily with short-term political agendas.”
“In the current geopolitical climate, the capacity of international law to provide a meaningful constraint on US action under Donald Trump has proven negligible,” Becker added. “That seems unlikely to change, especially given the failure by other states to strike a united front against Trump’s gangsterism.”
What about the UN?
Not so much.
From its founding, the role of the UN has been to promote dialogue instead of conflict and provide a global response to international challenges. However, Trump’s relationship with the body, like so many of the president’s associations, has rarely been so straightforward. On the one hand, while appearing to try to supplant the body with his members-only Board of Peace as well as sidelining UN aid efforts in Gaza, he has on occasion sought the legitimacy of the UN for a number of his projects, such as his calls in August for the UN to establish a Support Office in Haiti, to help limit migration to the US.
However, while the support of the UN may be helpful, it is clear that Trump has no intention of abiding by its charter, Richard Gowan, the Crisis Group’s UN director from 2019 to 2025, said.
“While other UN members see the US is breaking international law on a regular basis, they often hold back from criticising Washington too loudly in forums like the Security Council because they fear blowback from Trump,” Gowan said. “So Trump is learning he can sidestep the UN when he wants to and get away with it while occasionally using it for instrumental purposes.”
What about other powers?
Up to a point.
Many countries known as “middle powers”, such as Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and other Western and European states, have proven successful so far in pushing back against Trump’s efforts to unilaterally annex Greenland. But European powers have failed to condemn Trump’s unprovoked war on Venezuela and Iran, exposing their double standards in conflicts in the Middle East and the Global South.
Many analysts expect that a withdrawal of investments in the US by Gulf states, which are bearing the brunt of Iran’s retaliation to US and Israeli attacks, may also hasten the war’s end.
“Middle powers can generate friction but not a veto,” HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London said. “Collective action – European governments, Gulf states – can raise costs and extract tactical adjustments. The structural imbalance remains: The US retains decisive military, financial and institutional primacy.”
Smaller states often hedge their bets, follow Washington or look to regional alliances for protection, Hellyer added, continuing that while pressure was strongest in Europe, where the US is no longer seen as a reliable security guarantor, the idea of establishing an alternative continues to be a hurdle. “The logic of an alternative model is accepted; the capacity to execute it quickly is not. A prolonged interregnum follows. The Gulf Arab states are in an analogous position,” he said.
In the meantime, Trump and the US are free to act as they choose. “These are exposure-management strategies, pursued until structural dependence on the US security umbrella can be reduced,” he said.
China and Russia have so far criticised the breaches of international law while avoiding clear escalation, and India and other members of the BRICS bloc have largely stayed silent, suggesting a preference for strategic ambiguity over confronting Washington directly.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Trump of a ‘rupture’ in the Western alliance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2026 [File: Denis Balibouse/Reuters]
What about domestic restraints?
Not really.
The US Supreme Court was able to block Trump’s use of tariffs to manage large parts of his foreign policy by rewarding allies with lower tariffs and punishing critics with punitive import duties.
But none of the other traditional guardrails – such as Congress; the Department of Justice, which has provided unwavering support to the president; and even the news media – has contained the president’s ambitions. This isn’t entirely new. Previous presidents have ordered wars without congressional approval. However, with Trump, analysts suggested, it has been systematic.
Powerful US institutions have largely failed to hold the Trump administration accountable, analysts, such as Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of international affairs at Princeton University, said.
“His base of strong supporters are saying that they are willing to experience short-term increases in gasoline prices if it leads to a friendly government in Iran in the long term. His opponents have been his opponents on everything, so he simply ignores and threatens them,” Scheppele told Al Jazeera.
“Trump pays more attention to market performance than to public opinion, so he started saying that he was minimising costs and saying that the Iran war is short term to boost markets again.”
“What the US is spectacularly missing is leadership to oppose Trump. Congress is not doing its constitutional job to constrain him. The Supreme Court is in his pocket because he packed the court in his first term. Lower court judges are heroic and have done amazing work under serious pressures, but they don’t get foreign policy questions, given the difficulty of anyone getting ‘standing’ … in the area of international matters,” she said, referring to the requirement that parties to a lawsuit must show actual or future direct harm to themselves to bring a case to court.
She noted that lower federal courts, although limited on foreign policy, have repeatedly checked executive overreach on immigration, sanctions designations and emergency powers, often under intense political pressure.
A bulk carrier and tanker at anchor in Muscat, Oman, as Iran has essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz by threatening to attack vessels transiting the waterway [File: Benoit Tessier/Reuters]
So why are so many people saying Trump’s war is faltering?
In the eyes of many observers, Trump, with no clear war aims or a defined resolution, is in danger of losing control of a conflict that appears to be both growing and reaching into economic areas apparently unforeseen by his administration, so while traditional restraints don’t apply, market forces, like gravity, always do.
Trump has repeatedly said the war would be over soon despite none of his claimed war aims being achieved.
Oil prices have surged due to his attacks on Iran, Tehran’s counterstrikes and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
The International Energy Agency’s decision on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil from international petroleum reserves has failed to tame the prices. Iran has warned that oil could hit $200 a barrel as it continues its stranglehold of the waterway.
“Ultimately, the factors that might be most likely to constrain Donald Trump’s neoimperialist impulses – or his willingness to pursue the policy goals of those who have his ear – are the economic fallout from disrupting global energy markets and a broader disenchantment among US voters with his globe-trotting militarism, his rampant self-dealing and his callous disregard for the human costs of war,” Becker said.
In one of his latest missives on social media, President Trump complained that he wasn’t getting enough credit for “totally destroying the terrorist regime of Iran, militarily, economically, and otherwise.”
“We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time,” he wrote of a war that has crippled the global supply of oil, sharply increased gas prices, cost U.S. taxpayers billions, left thousands dead and wounded, and so far defied Trump’s own “short term” timetable.
“Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today,” Trump added. “They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!”
Again and again in recent days, Trump and other top officials in his administration — notably Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth — have projected confidence and power in Iran in a coarse and triumphant tone that is unprecedented for U.S. wartime presidents and their Cabinet members, according to experts in presidential rhetoric and propaganda.
They have consistently described the war in terms of how hard the U.S. is hitting Iran, rather than why it must do so. They’ve talked of destroying the Iranian navy and air force, wiping out its leadership and making the U.S. “more respected” globally than it has ever been, including by showing no mercy.
“This was never meant to be a fair fight, and it is not a fair fight. We are punching them while they’re down, which is exactly how it should be,” Hegseth said.
Missing is the solemnity of past wartime leaders facing dead U.S. soldiers, a recalcitrant enemy and a precarious tactical position, replaced by a message of U.S. mercilessness — of contempt for Iran rather than concern for its civilians or a focus on the American ideals that U.S. presidents have long tried to rally the world around, especially in times of war.
“At a time when people can see the effects of the war when they fill up their gas tank, and when there have been American casualties, the triumphalist tone is just not something a president normally does,” said Robert C. Rowland, a professor of rhetoric at the University of Kansas and author of the book “The Rhetoric of Donald Trump: Nationalist Populism and American Democracy.”
“Many presidents wouldn’t have that tone for personal moral reasons,” Rowland said, “but they also know that it can backfire when things don’t go well.”
James J. Kimble, a communication professor and propaganda historian at Seton Hall University, said U.S. presidents have “by and large” struck a respectful tone in wartime, though there are some exceptions. President Truman, justifying dropping atomic bombs on Japan, wrote that “when you have to deal with a beast, you have to treat him as a beast,” while the U.S. produced World War II posters designed to “demonize and dehumanize the German enemy,” he noted.
Still, Trump’s messaging — including his “expressing glee at the death of foreign combatants” — has been “much coarser,” Kimble said.
“It’s moving beyond the idea of defeating the enemy on the field of battle, and more into a kind of defeat as humiliation — intentional humiliation,” he said. “It’s schoolyard bullying, along with the physical violence.”
Asked about Trump’s rhetoric, Anna Kelly, a White House spokeswoman, said Trump “will always be proud to recognize the incredible accomplishments of our brave service members.”
“Under the decisive leadership of President Trump, America’s heroic war fighters are meeting or surpassing all of their goals under Operation Epic Fury,” she said. “The legacy media wants us to apologize for highlighting the United States military’s incredible success, but the White House will continue showcasing the many examples of Iran’s ballistic missiles, production facilities, and dreams of owning a nuclear weapon being destroyed in real time.”
Trump has built his political career around blunt rhetoric, and his messaging on Iran has drawn applause from his supporters. Polling has shown the public is heavily divided on the war — drawing far less public support than past wars, but broad support from Republicans.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has accused the media of ignoring “clear” objectives that the president and others have set for the war effort, including wiping out Iran’s missile systems, preventing it from developing a nuclear weapon and stopping what Trump had a “feeling” was a coming attack on the U.S.
However, Trump and Hegseth have themselves strayed from that framework with their brash rhetoric, and their focus on the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders.
Trump has dismissed reports that the U.S. bombed an Iranian school full of children by suggesting that Iran may actually have been responsible, despite reported findings by U.S. intelligence that it was an American attack.
Hegseth has added to concerns about careless U.S. bombing by expressing disdain for wartime rules designed to limit civilian casualties, calling them “stupid rules of engagement.”
“Our war fighters have maximum authorities granted personally by the president and yours truly,” Hegseth said. “Our rules of engagement are bold, precise and designed to unleash American power, not shackle it.”
The White House has also pushed out a wave of wartime propaganda on social media, often striking the same irreverent, bullish tone, experts noted.
One video interspersed movie clips of superheroes and soldiers with real footage of Iranian targets getting blown up, under the words, “JUSTICE THE AMERICAN WAY.” The clip drew condemnation, including from the actor Ben Stiller, who objected to the inclusion of footage from his film “Tropic Thunder,” saying, “War is not a movie.”
Hegseth’s bravado has also been caricatured on “Saturday Night Live,” which opened two weeks in a row with a satirical portrayal of him as angry, dimwitted and hyped up on the violence of war.
All of it has come against a backdrop of Islamophobic remarks from members of Congress on X, with Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) writing that “Muslims don’t belong in American society” and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) posting a picture of the 9/11 terrorist attack next to an image of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who is Muslim, and writing “the enemy is inside the gates.”
Certainly Iranian leaders have expressed similar contempt for the U.S. for years. Khamenei, killed at the start of the war, was known for stoking anti-American sentiment, speaking to crowds amid chants of “death to America.”
However, U.S. presidents have traditionally spoken with more reserve. They have slammed U.S. enemies, but often by drawing a contrast between them, the U.S. and the values the U.S. purports to defend globally. They have expressed confidence in past U.S. missions, but been wary of taking a celebratory or triumphant tone — especially at the start of a war, amid intense fighting, as American troops are still dying.
Not so with Trump, who on Wednesday said, “You never like to say too early you won. We won. We won … . In the first hour, it was over.”
He also said, “Over the past 11 days, our military has virtually destroyed Iran,” and “they don’t have anything.”
On Thursday, six U.S. service members were killed when a refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq. On Friday, the U.S. military announced it was sending 2,500 Marines and an additional U.S. warship to the conflict.
Kimble said there are several ways to view Trump’s war rhetoric. One is “through the lens of PSYOPS, or psychological operations” — or intentional messaging aimed at discouraging the enemy, akin to the U.S. dropping leaflets in World War II telling foreign combatants that they must surrender or die. In that view, Trump is speaking directly to the Iranians, trying to get them to “perceive victory as impossible.”
Another is to view Trump and Hegseth as projecting a tough image for their MAGA base, their Democratic rivals and any other nations they might be preparing to challenge, such as Cuba.
Rowland said Trump “always has to be the big dog in the room,” and his war messaging should be viewed in that context.
“A lot of the rhetoric is performative cruelty,” Rowland said. “It’s more about him coming across as dominant than it is about making a case that the war has been good for the U.S. and the region and the West and the world.”
President Trump was uncommonly lucky in his first term, neither inheriting nor provoking a crisis of the sort that tests U.S. presidents, until COVID struck in his final 10 months. (He failed that test, contributing to his 2020 reelection defeat.) Trump 1.0 was bequeathed a growing economy from President Obama, and the incoming president assembled a roster of capable advisors who often acted to prevent him from doing nutty things at home and abroad.
Trump 2.0 made sure that no such human guardrails populated his second Cabinet, only genuflecting enablers. Unrestrained, he has presided over one crisis on top of another, all of his own making. Tariff mayhem and high prices. Armed agents and troops in American cities. Repeated violations of court orders. Demolition at federal agencies and the White House.
And now Trump has taken the nation to war against Iran in league with Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu. Depending on the moment and the audience, a contradictory Trump is either claiming the war is “very complete” or that much remains to be done to “decimate” Iran. On Wednesday he blithely told Axios, “Any time I want it to end, it will end,” even as U.S. officials planned further actions.
In any case, Trump’s war of choice and the killing of the supreme leader of Iran’s terroristic theocracy now has spawned another potential crisis, counterterrorism experts warn: the risks of retaliatory terrorist threats at home. And that is a threat, whether from homegrown extremists or sleeper cells of the sort that came alive for 9/11, that is likely greater because of the initial self-induced crisis of Trump’s second term: his whacking of the federal government.
Trump authorized Elon Musk’s destruction of the bureaucracy in the name of “government efficiency” and continues to exact retribution against any federal employee who had anything to do with investigating and prosecuting him during his interregnum. Longtime agents and operatives have been eliminated at the FBI, Justice Department, Department of Homeland Security, CIA and elsewhere. Especially at the FBI, counterterrorism experts with centuries of collective experience are gone and many who remain have been diverted to Trump’s top priority: mass deportations.
Consequently, the president who promised to “Make America Safe Again” has arguably made Americans less safe.
I raised this scary prospect just over a year ago as Trump’s teardown of the purported Deep State was underway. And now a Mideast war that Trump promised never to start has further incentivized Iran and its jihadi proxies to hit back, just as he’s diminished the nation’s early-warning systems.
Enough intelligence remains, however, that even in the days before Trump ordered the first strikes against Tehran, government analysts were picking up “worrisome signs” of Iranian plotting against U.S. targets, the New York Times reported. After the U.S.-Israel onslaught and death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, the government intercepted a possible Iranian “operational trigger” to “sleeper assets” outside Iran, according to ABC News.
Counterterrorism expert Colin P. Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, which focuses on global security and transnational terrorism, wrote this week in the Atlantic that U.S. agencies’ record of disrupting Iranian-backed plots in America was in jeopardy given the recent changes in funding, personnel and priorities. “Because of this,” he concluded, “the U.S. homeland is arguably more vulnerable than it has been in a long time.”
In a follow-up exchange of emails, Clarke told me, “Many of this administration’s moves have been myopic — shifting counterterrorism resources to immigration, firing FBI agents working counterintelligence, etc. A week before the U.S. went to war with Iran, the FBI Director Kash Patel was off gallivanting in Milan at the Olympics [where he struggled to chug a Michelob Ultra, a firing offense in its own right] when he should have been preparing for the potential for an Iranian response on U.S. soil.”
Patel’s preposterous partying with the U.S. men’s hockey team while war-planning was underway in Washington was widely, justifiably mocked. But it stands as a metaphor for the entire Trump administration’s cavalier attitude toward homeland security. Its abusive focus on both migrants and citizens protesting on the migrants’ behalf is a distraction from actual threats to the country.
Patel, like his boss at the Justice Department, Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi, has made plain in words and actions that the president’s political enemies are the real public enemies No. 1. One of Bondi’s first acts was creation of a “weaponization working group” to identify, fire or prosecute those in her department who’d investigated and prosecuted Trump, many of whom also had experience in domestic and transnational terrorism. The association representing FBI agents called her purges “dangerous distractions” from the work “to make America safe again.”
Days after starting the Iran war, when homeland security should have been on red alert, Trump fired his secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem. Her costly cosplaying as the homeland’s heroine on horseback in anti-migrant videos, along with her penchant for luxury jets allegedly to transport deportees, was too much even for him.
Yet all three “national security” officials — Noem, Bondi and Patel — simply reflect Trump’s own warped approach and blasé attitude toward the homefront.
When Time magazine last week asked the commander in chief whether Americans should be worried about potential terrorist strikes at home, he replied, “I guess.”
“We plan for it,” he added. “But yeah, you know, we expect some things. Like I said, some people will die. When you go to war, some people will die.”
The administration is planning for it all right. An extraordinary number of senior Trump officials have taken up residence in houses on military bases, including Bondi, Noem, the secretaries of State and Defense, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, and White House consigliere Stephen Miller.
The rest of us just have to keep our fingers crossed. I guess.
MIAMI — Voting technology firm Smartmatic is seeking to dismiss a criminal indictment for money laundering, blaming President Trump and his allies for seeking its prosecution as part of a “campaign of retribution” against those they blame for his 2020 election loss.
Smartmatic’s parent company, UK-based SGO Corporation, was added to a criminal indictment last fall previously charging several executives with paying $1 million in bribes to election officials in the Philippines.
In a motion to dismiss the indictment filed Tuesday, attorneys for Smartmatic said the company had been cooperating with the Justice Department since it first learned of its investigation in 2021, including by producing millions of pages of documents and making presentations to federal agents. A trial date for the executives, including co-founder Roger Pinate, had been set and the company believed that it was in the clear.
But when Trump returned to the White House, the Justice Department reversed course and decided to press charges against Smartmatic. Attorneys for the company said the decision was prompted by Trump’s demands to prosecute his perceived enemies and his “mantra” that Smartmatic helped rig the 2020 U.S. presidential election won by Joe Biden — allegations that are at the heart of a $2.7-billion lawsuit filed by Smartmatic against the president’s allies in the media.
“The prosecution of SGO furthers their collective false narrative that President Trump did not actually lose the 2020 election,” Smartmatic said in the filing in Miami federal court.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Attorneys likened the prosecution to the Justice Department’s targeting of Kilmar Armando Ábrego García, a Salvadoran migrant who was criminally charged for conduct years earlier after he successfully sued the Trump administration over its decision to deport him.
In the years since the election, the filing states, “Smartmatic USA has exercised its right to hold those individuals and entities legally accountable for their deluge of defamatory statements and the attendant damage inflicts on its business, putting it squarely in the crosshairs for retribution.”
The criminal case against Smartmatic and its employees stems from payments, between 2015 and 2018, that were allegedly made to obtain a contract with the Philippine government to help run that country’s 2016 presidential election. Pinate, who no longer works for Smartmatic but remains a shareholder, has pleaded not guilty.
As part of the criminal case, prosecutors in August sought the court’s permission to introduce evidence they argue shows that revenue from a $300-million contract with Los Angeles County to help modernize its voting systems was diverted to a “ slush fund” controlled by Pinate through the use of overseas shell companies, fake invoices and other means.
They also accused Pinate of secretly bribing Venezuela’s longtime election chief by giving her a luxury home with a pool in Caracas. Prosecutors say the home was transferred to the election chief in an attempt to repair relations following Smartmatic’s abrupt exit from Venezuela in 2017 when it accused then-President Nicolas Maduro ’s government of manipulating tallied results in elections for a rubber-stamping constituent assembly.
Smartmatic was founded more than two decades ago by a group of Venezuelans who found early success running elections while the late Hugo Chavez, a devotee of electronic voting, was in power. The company later expanded globally, providing voting machines and other technology to help carry out elections in 25 countries, from Argentina to Zambia.
But Smartmatic has said its business tanked after Fox News gave Trump’s lawyers a platform to paint the company as part of a conspiracy to steal the 2020 election.
Fox said it was legitimately reporting on newsworthy events but eventually aired a piece refuting the allegations after Smartmatic’s lawyers complained. Nonetheless, it has aggressively defended itself against the defamation lawsuit in New York — arguing that the company was facing imminent collapse over its own internal misconduct, not due to any negative coverage.
