tarik skubal

In retrospect, conventional wisdom might not be all that wise. Just check out this postseason.

The Atlanta Braves should have started Chris Sale in Game 2 of the division series against the Dodgers. They didn’t. They won.

The Braves then had an edge with Sale starting Game 3. They didn’t. They lost that game, and they were eliminated in the next game.

The Milwaukee Brewers should have considered trading rookie pitcher Logan Henderson in a package for Tarik Skubal, a win-now proposition for a team that has dominated the regular season but had not appeared in the World Series in 44 years. They didn’t. Skubal and the Dodgers missed the World Series, and Henderson started Game 2 for the Brewers on Saturday, helping them move within two victories from their first championship.

That brings us to Freddy Peralta, who starts Game 3 for the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. Peralta was one of the top pitchers in the majors for the Brewers last year, and he has been one of the top pitchers in the majors since the Rays acquired him from the New York Mets three months ago, but in between he performed so poorly for the Mets that he cannot really explain why.

“Sometimes I ask the same question myself,” Peralta said.

So poorly that, when the league’s website ranked the most impactful trades at the deadline, the Peralta deal did not make the top 10, behind trades for six other starting pitchers: Skubal, Casey Mize and Robbie Ray to the San Diego Padres, Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes to the Chicago Cubs, and Jose Soriano to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Conventional wisdom? No big deal.

For the Mets, Peralta put up a 4.99 ERA and a negative WAR. For the Rays, he put up an 0.79 ERA in his last six starts of the regular season and a 1.07 ERA so far in the postseason, honored as American League Championship Series MVP.

“I feel like he’s kind of come back to being Freddy Peralta with us,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said.

Peralta went 17-6 with a 2.70 earned-run average for Milwaukee last year, leading the National League in victories and posting 5.5 WAR, third behind Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies and Cy Young winner Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

If you wonder why the Brewers would trade Peralta, well, you don’t know the Brewers.

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Freddy Peralta throws against the Cleveland Guardians in Game 6 of the ALCS on Oct. 19.

(Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press)

Peralta was approaching free agency, and the Brewers routinely trade All-Star pitchers like that for prospects: Corbin Burnes, Josh Hader, Devin Williams.

This is how the Brewers restock: The Burnes trade brought two pieces of this World Series team, pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz. The Hader trade brought Game 3 starter Robert Gasser and journeyman outfielder Estuery Ruiz, and within a subsequent three-team trade, the Brewers swiped All-Star catcher William Contreras for Ruiz.

The Mets wanted Peralta for what they considered an inevitable playoff run, with the largest Opening Day payroll of any major league team, the Dodgers included. The Mets finished in last place, and Peralta’s ERA exceeded 6.00 in each of the two months preceding the trade deadline.

“I was feeling bad,” Peralta said, “because I couldn’t do anything.”

The adjustments the Mets asked him to make, he said, were “a little different” than the ones that reversed the course of his season with the Rays.

The Rays let him pitch from the stretch, as he had in Milwaukee. They modified his delivery, including having him start it from the third-base side of the pitching rubber. His fastball got faster: 94 mph with the Mets, hitting 97 mph in the playoffs.

“We see that he’s in his element, man,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy said. “That’s Fastball Freddy.”

In Milwaukee, it’s all love for Peralta. The fans even cheered his bullpen session there before Game 1.

He’ll start Game 3 in Tampa Bay and, after that, who knows, but he would be lined up to start a potential Game 7 in Milwaukee.

“I know how special it is to pitch on this mound here in Milwaukee,” Peralta said. “I would like to pitch here during the postseason.”

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Freddy Peralta celebrates during Game 2 of the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians on Oct. 13.

(David J. Phillip / Associated Press)

He would have liked to pitch in New York during the postseason too.

“They had a lot of big expectations for me, the fans too, in New York,” he said. “They were waiting for something great from me.”

Conventional wisdom can boomerang. The conventional wisdom on Peralta’s free agency in the spring: he should make more in free agency than any pitcher besides Skubal; in the summer: this is a bad year to take into free agency; in the fall: he should make more in free agency than any pitcher besides Skubal.

But, given what happened in New York, what were the realistic expectations in Tampa Bay?

“I was able to go to a new team that probably needed me for …” Peralta said, his voice trailing off.

The World Series?

Peralta beamed.

“Crazy,” he said. “For the World Series, yeah.”

The Dodgers have two pitchers who have won multiple Cy Young Awards in Blake Snell and Tarik Skubal. Another starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is the reigning World Series most valuable player.

None of them will be on the mound Thursday when the season will be on the line. Instead, manager Dave Roberts will put the ball — and his team’s future — in the massive right hand of Tyler Glasnow, who will have no margin for error.

“It’s win or go home,” Skubal said. “Our backs are against the wall.”

That’s not how Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, saw things playing out when he traded three prospects to Detroit for Skubal in August. Or when he spent $182 million to sign Snell before last season. Or when he committed $325 million to sign Yamamoto the season before that.

The Milwaukee Brewers have bested all three in the National League Championship Series, reaching Snell for the only three home runs he’s given up this season in a 6-2 win in Game 3 on Wednesday. Now Glasnow is the only thing standing between the Dodgers and a long, cold winter.

And while that may not be the way the Dodgers wanted things to play out, they say they like their chances — for one night, at least.

“Everybody in the team is very confident in his ability and the stuff that’s coming out of his hand and doing his job,” Skubal said of Glasnow.

“I feel great about Glas,” utility man Kiké Hernández added. “He’s got some of the best stuff in the game. I feel like our pitchers have given us a chance every day to win a game, and we just haven’t hit. So we just got to hit.”

Glasnow started the season as the No. 3 starter, but before the Dodgers had gotten six weeks into their schedule, he was on the injured list because of lower back spasms. He spent most of the season there, pitching more innings in minor-league rehab starts than he did for the Dodgers between May and September.

He returned to make six starts down the stretch, striking out 49 in 34-1/3 innings to finish the season 5-2 with a 3.53 earned-run average in 13 starts, then held Atlanta to one hit over 4-2/3 innings in the deciding game of the division series.

“He’s fresh,” Roberts said of Glasnow. “He’s got a lot of arm talent. He’s got experience certainly in the postseason. We’ve got a lot of guys behind him” in the bullpen.

“I think he’s going to pitch well.”

The Dodgers’ season is depending on that. Glasnow, however, is just approaching it as another start.

“When I was younger maybe I’d feel it and get excited, and I’m like, ‘Oh, I can throw 105 if I try hard,’” he said. “Now it’s more about trying to settle in and go back to as close of a normal feeling as possible, not trying to chase it and be any different or any more or any less. Just try to stay with it and what I’ve done all week, my preparation, how I feel on the mound, and just keep it consistent.”

Glasnow, 33, has pitched in 17 postseason games for Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, going 2-6 with a 4.27 ERA. Only Snell, among Dodgers starters, has more playoff appearances. But Glasnow hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2020 division series when he was pitching for the Rays.

If he can give the Dodgers a boost Thursday, however, if he can extend their season just one more day, it could give the team new life.

Only one team has come back from a three-game deficit to win a best-of-seven League Championship Series and that was the 2004 Boston Red Sox team Roberts played for — a team that also gave the ball to its fourth-best starting pitcher with its season on the line.

On the afternoon of Game 4, with the New York Yankees looking to beat Derek Lowe and sweep the Sox, Boston’s Kevin Millar stepped on the field at Fenway Park and issued a warning.

Dave Roberts of Boston steals second past Derek Jeter of the Yankees in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. Roberts and the Red Sox became the only team to come back from down 3-0 to win an LCS.

(Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images)

“Don’t let us win tonight,” he shouted. “If we win today, we’ve got Pedro [Martínez] coming back and then [Curt] Schilling will pitch Game 6 and anything can happen in a Game 7.”

The series played out exactly as Millar predicted. And if Glasnow can rescue the Dodgers, they would have their three high-paid aces — Skubal, Yamamoto and Snell — lined up for the next three elimination games.

But none of that matters if they lose Thursday.

“We just need to win tomorrow’s game,” Skubal said.

ATLANTA — Who would you rather have starting an October game for the Dodgers than Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

No one, right? And you wouldn’t be the only one thinking that.

Tarik Skubal thought so too.

When Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Skubal he would start the team’s playoff opener, Skubal responded with a question.

“Why?”

Skubal was honored with the assignment, but he also was worried.

“I was like, ‘Is Yoshi OK?’” Skubal said Tuesday.

He is, as the Atlanta Braves found out the hard way. Yamamoto pitched the Dodgers to within one game of the National League Championship Series, setting a postseason high with 10 strikeouts in a 3-1 victory.

In seven innings, Yamamoto gave up one run on four hits, all of them singles. In only one of those innings did Atlanta advance a runner beyond first base.

“I just have a lot of respect for him and for what he means here in L.A. and what he has accomplished here,” Skubal said. “I know we have a lot of good starting pitching, and I know there is a lot of thought that goes into it, but I just assumed he would be the Game 1 guy.”

You could say Yamamoto rises to the October occasion, but Mookie Betts would not say that, if only because Yamamoto rises to the occasion on just about every occasion.

“I don’t see it any different,” Betts said. “I think he does it all year, too.

“He just has so many weapons. He throws a lot of strikes with a lot of pitches. He’s hard to hit.”

Skubal, a two-time Cy Young winner, is brilliant in October.

In seven postseason appearances, he has a 1.97 earned-run average. He gave up five runs in one inning, and he has given up five runs in the other 44⅔ innings. The Dodgers’ grand prize from the trade deadline was hardly a reckless choice to start Game 1 of the division series.

Yamamoto has a 2.14 ERA in 11 playoff appearances, the fourth-lowest of any pitcher since 1903 to make at least 10 postseason starts. He drains the life out of an opposing crowd as well as anyone in major league history, with a 1.42 ERA in six road playoff outings.

“I’m a fan of this game as much as I am a player,” Skubal said. “So, when I watch guys do really impressive things and do great things, I understand what it takes because I also play the game.

“When he goes out and performs like he does, it’s almost like I expect it. And now, being a teammate of his, it’s not surprising at all why he goes and performs like he does, because the way he prepares is as good as anybody in this game. It’s just a ton of fun to be on the same side of it.”

Yamamoto admitted to feeling nervous, even if you would never sense it from watching him. That’s part of the way he prepares, too.

“During the preparation and before the game, then I do get nervous,” Yamamoto said through an interpreter, “but at that time, I personally think that’s very important.”

And then the game starts, the nerves dissipate, and the opponent is methodically slayed.

“He just has a way to just make pitches, calm his heartbeat,” Roberts said.

Highlights from the Dodgers’ 3-1 win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS.

The Dodgers have played seven postseason series with Yamamoto, and they have won them all.

We’ll always cherish last October. In 76 regular-season starts with the Dodgers, he has one complete game. In back-to-back starts last October, he threw a complete game both times.

Of the Dodgers’ four victories in the World Series, Yamamoto earned three — including Game 6 as a starter and Game 7 as a reliever, with no day of rest in between.

“I got goosebumps watching that,” Skubal said. “I didn’t know how he was doing it. That’s what I was thinking: How is this going to work?

“His stuff looked even better than it did in Game 6, which is insane to say. But it did. When I was watching on TV, I was like, ‘Holy … he looks better today than he did yesterday, and he did pretty well the day before.’ It’s incredible.

“Hopefully, we’re not having to do that again to him.”

That is one big reason why the Dodgers acquired Skubal. If Tyler Glasnow wins Wednesday — and the Dodgers won in all six of Glasnow’s postseason appearances last October — they are off to the NLCS.

The Game 1 starter could be Skubal, followed in Game 2 by Yamamoto. That’s a tall order for opposing batters and, so far, a winning order for the Dodgers.

Scared straight.

Faced with a reality check, the Dodgers got real. Confronted with the end, the Dodgers are just getting started.

Stepping warily into Atlanta’s Truist Park with their five-game division series tied at one game apiece and Braves’ ace Chris Sale waiting for them on the mound Tuesday, the Dodgers marched out three hours later on the verge of another champagne shower.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto was brilliant, showing everyone that they were focusing on the wrong ace.

The Dodger bats were reborn, showing everyone that they still know how to hit in October.

And, yes, the Dodgers finally have a closer, Edwin Díaz entering the ninth and allowing a leadoff double to Ozzie Albies before retiring the next three hitters for the biggest save of his brief Dodgers career.

In all, the Dodgers drowned out that horrible tomahawk chop with some mighty hacks of their own, winning 3-1 while finally displaying some of the desperation that had been missing.

“We’ve gotta treat every game like an elimination game and go out there and play with urgency,” said Freddie Freeman about the lesson learned.

Seemingly moments after staring the Dodgers down with a thrilling Game 2 victory, the Braves have essentially been consigned to their rearview mirror.

Historically, the team that wins Game 3 in a best-of-five series wins that series 72% of the time, but the Dodgers don’t need some fancy stats to tell them what they know.

The Braves can’t beat the Dodgers in two straight games, and they can’t do it with one of those games at Dodger Stadium if necessary, and they can’t do it with Tyler Mahle pitching in one game and the bullpen handling the other game.

The Dodgers have Tyler Glasnow on their mound in Wednesday’s Game 4 and Tarik Skubal waiting for a possible Game 5 and this thing feels over.

Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivers during a 3-1 win over the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS on Tuesday.

(Mike Stewart / Associated Press)

“I think I was most proud of we played tonight like an elimination game,” said manager Dave Roberts, later adding, “Tonight I think collectively it was probably one of our better performances.”

It started with the Dodgers’ offense against Sale, who shut them out in a 1-0 victory over Yamamoto just last month.

This time they were patient. This time they were smart. This time they worked him for 24 pitches in the first inning, 18 in the second, 20 in the third.

All of this set up the 37-year-old Sale for a fourth-inning beatdown with some familiar Dodger postseason magic.

With Andy Pages on first after a ground-ball single — he’s breaking out of his two-year postseason slump! — Kiké Hernández drove in a hanging changeup 406 feet over the left-field wall for a two-run homer, and where have you heard this before?

Highlights from the Dodgers’ 3-1 win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS.

Hernández is arguably the most consistently unlikely postseason hero in Dodger history. During the regular season he struggles. During the postseason he shines.

This was his 17th postseason home run, fourth in Dodger history, and remember the three home runs he hit that night in the 2017 National League Championship Series in Chicago?

He’s been doing that sort of thing ever since, and his Dodger teammates can only stare in amazement.

“I wish there was a recipe for that so we can all take it from him, he’s incredible, he shows up when you need him,” said Freeman, later adding,“He’s a Swiss Army knife and he’s ready to go at all times.”

This time Hernández was followed two batters later by another familiar October bat. It’s safe to say that Freeman has broken out of his slump, as he homered for the second time in two nights after hitting one in the previous 66 games. It was the first time Sale had given up more than two runs in an inning in three years.

That made the score 3-1 and considering Yamamoto was 33-0 with at least three runs of support in his career, this game felt over. And it was indeed over.

In notching a postseason-high 10 strikeouts over eight innings, Yamamoto showed why he — and not Skubal — is the ace of this staff.

Making his first start in 13 days, he gave up just one run on four hits in seven innings in a continuation of his postseason mastery. He now has an 8-0 career postseason record with a 2.14 ERA and that doesn’t begin to illustrate his impact.

“Wow, what a performance,” said Roberts. “He just has a way to just make pitches, calm his heartbeat.”

Yamamoto was held back for this game while Skubal started the opener, but he shouldn’t take a back seat to anyone anymore this postseason. He should pitch early, often, every day if possible, because he is darn near unhittable.

Unhittable in a different sense was struggling Shohei Ohtani, who was moved down from the top of the order to the fifth spot, and it didn’t do him any good.

He failed to get a hit in four plate appearances, reacting so badly to one of Sale’s changeups that he foolishly called for an ABS challenge that he lost.

Ohtani is still lost. But on a turning-point night in Atlanta, the Dodgers found themselves.