tariffs

Trump seeks to close $1.6-trillion revenue gap with new tariffs

The Trump administration is stepping up its ambitious effort to replace about $1.6 trillion in lost tariff revenue that was eliminated by the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a range of the president’s import taxes.

Recovering that lost revenue, which the White House was counting on to help offset the steep, multitrillion-dollar cost of its tax cuts, is possible but will be challenging, experts say. The administration has to use different legal provisions to impose new import taxes, and those provisions require longer, complex processes that U.S. companies can use to seek exemptions. It could be months or more before it is clear how much revenue the replacement tariffs will yield.

“I wouldn’t bet against this administration being able to get back on paper the same effective tariff rate they had before,” said Elena Patel, co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. But the new approach will “make it easier for people to contest the tariffs, which is going to put a big asterisk on the revenue until all that is settled.”

On Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration will investigate 16 economies — including the European Union — over whether their governments are subsidizing excessive factory capacity in a way that disadvantages U.S. manufacturing. The investigation will also cover China, South Korea and Japan, Greer said.

In addition, he said, there would be a second investigation of dozens of countries to see whether their failure to ban goods made by forced labor amounts to an unfair trade practice that harms the United States. That investigation will also cover the EU and China, as well as Mexico, Canada, Australia and Brazil.

Both investigations are being conducted under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, which requires the administration to consult with the targeted countries, as well as hold public hearings and allow affected U.S. industries to comment. A hearing as part of the factory capacity investigation will be held May 5, while a hearing on the forced labor investigation will occur April 28.

It’s a far cry from the emergency law that President Trump relied on in his first year in office, which allowed him to immediately impose tariffs on any country, at nearly any level, simply by issuing an executive order.

Moments after the Supreme Court’s ruling, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports under a separate legal authority, but that duty can only last for 150 days. The president has said he would raise it to 15%, the maximum allowed, but has yet to do so. Some two dozen states have already challenged the new taxes. The administration is aiming to complete its Section 301 investigations before the 10% duties expire.

The effort underscores the importance that the Trump White House has placed on tariffs as a revenue-raiser at a time when the federal government is facing huge annual budget deficits for decades into the future. Previous administrations, by contrast, used tariffs more sparingly to narrowly protect specific industries.

Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, noted that the first investigation covers roughly 70% of imports, while the second would cover nearly all of them.

“That breadth suggests the goal isn’t to address the issues at hand, but instead to re-create a sweeping tariff tool,” she said.

Trump portrays tariffs as a way to force foreign countries to essentially help pay the cost of U.S. government services, even though all recent economic studies find that American companies and consumers are paying the duties, including analyses by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and economists at Harvard University. In his State of the Union address last month, Trump even touted his tariffs as a potential replacement for the income tax, which would return the United States’ tax regime to the late 19th century.

Trump also wants tariffs to help pay for the tax cuts he extended in key legislation last year. The tax cut legislation is expected, according to the most recent estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, to add $4.7 trillion to the national debt over a decade, while all Trump’s import taxes, including ones not struck down by the court, were projected to offset about $3 trillion — or two-thirds of that cost.

The high court’s ruling Feb. 20 that he could no longer impose emergency tariffs eliminated about $1.6 trillion in expected revenue over the next decade, according to the CBO.

Some of Trump’s import taxes remain place, including previous tariffs on China and Canada that were imposed after earlier 301 investigations. The administration has also imposed tariffs on some specific products, including steel, lumber and cars. Those, combined with the 10% tariff for part of this year, should yield about $668 billion over the next decade, the Tax Foundation estimates.

“It’s going to take a really big patchwork of these other investigations to make up for the [lost] tariffs,” York said.

The administration’s efforts are also unusual because they reflect an overreliance on tariffs to bring in more government revenue. Trump has also said the import taxes are intended to return manufacturing to the United States — manufacturing jobs, however, are down since he returned to office — and he has used the tariffs to leverage trade deals.

“What makes this really different,” said Kent Smetters, executive director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, “it is really the first time tariffs have been mainly used as a revenue raiser.”

Patel, meanwhile, argues that raising revenue can be done more reliably and straightforwardly by Congress. Laws like Section 301 are traditionally intended to be used to address specific trade policy concerns in particular countries.

“It’s not supposed to be there to raise revenue,” she said. “If we want to raise revenue through tariffs, then Congress should impose a broad based tariff.”

Rugaber writes for the Associated Press.

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‘On tariffs, we are caught in US domestic politics,’ lead Brussels trade lawmaker says

EU lawmakers in Brussels are worried that the bloc is drifting into the crosshairs of US domestic politics, as the White House launched new trade investigations into EU goods accusing the European Union is “implementing close to zero” of trade commitments.


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Next week could prove decisive for the EU–US trade deal struck last summer.

Washington has stepped up pressure on the EU in recent days to implement the agreement cut last summer cut between the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President Donald Trump, tripling tariffs on the EU.

Still, MEPs have kept the implementation process, which also includes investment pledges from the Europeans in the US, frozen, seeking clarity after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled in February that US tariffs imposed in 2025 were illegal.

The fate of the deal remains uncertain after the White House launched new investigations into EU products this week that could lead to tariffs exceeding the 15% ceiling agreed under the pact.

“It is domestic politics and the worst-case scenario has happened: we got involved,” Croatian MEP Željana Zovko, lead negotiator for the European People’s Party, told Euronews.

She added: “We were waiting for the Supreme Court’s decision but now of course this administration will do its utmost to do it its own way.”

In the days following the court’s ruling, the US administration has looked for new legal grounds for tariffs and invoked Section 122 to impose fresh duties of 10% on EU goods, on top of the 4.8% tariffs already in place under most-favored nation regime.

The provision allows temporary duties for a maximum of 150 days, after which the US Congress would need to agree an extension. The Supreme Court suggested in its initial ruling that the President had exceeded his powers under emergency grounds.

As Washington looks for a way to make the tariff salvo permanent, it is also increasing the pressure on allies by opening new investigations into trading partners including the EU over alleged unfair trade practices. China and India were also targeted.

The probes could pave the way for tariffs above the 15% ceiling agreed in the deal struck in July 2025 by Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump in Turnberry, Scotland.

Next week will be pivotal for the EU-US deal

“Now uncertainty is increasing even more for our businesses,” Zovko said.

Since the court ruling, the EU has sought clarity from Washington on whether the Turnberry agreement signed last year still stands or has been broken.

US officials assured EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič they would stick to the deal, though they have not detailed how the 10% tariffs after the court ruling will be replaced in the long-term. In return, the US expects the EU to implement the agreement fully and quickly.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer raised the temperature on Wednesday, lashing at the Europeans on the basis that “the EU has done approximately zero percent of what they were supposed to do for their trade deal with us.”

This week’s investigations should be taken seriously, German MEP Bernd Lange (S&D) told Euronews, despite the erratic moves by the US administration since the court ruling.

“Section 301 will allow the US to differentiate between countries and therefore add pressure to each of them,” he said.

Next week could be pivotal for the EU–US trade deal.

Italian MEP Brando Benifei (S&D) will travel to Washington hoping to meet Greer. He may be joined by Lange, the chair of the EU trade committee, on Monday although a decision has not been made yet.

The trip comes as negotiators in the European Parliament must decide whether to resume work on the agreement or postpone the vote once more. A vote is required to cut EU duties on US goods to zero, as foreseen in the Turnberry deal.

But political groups remain divided.

“When I read what the socialists are saying, I’m losing hope that we will have a vote, despite reassurance given by Iratxe García Pérez [Spanish MEP, chair of the S&D] and Bernd Lange,” a source at the EPP told Euronews.

Benifei said the EU needs a clear political signal from Washington that it will stick to the deal, otherwise “there is no way we can vote on the file.”

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Ecuador hikes tariffs on Colombian imports to 50 percent starting March 1 | Trade War News

The Ecuadorian government has declared that it will significantly raise tariffs on imports from Colombia, increasing the rate from 30 percent to 50 percent starting March 1.

The decision, announced on Thursday, represents a major escalation in the intensifying trade and security dispute between the two neighbouring Andean countries.

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Ecuador’s right-wing president, Daniel Noboa, has been pressuring his left-wing counterpart in Colombia, Gustavo Petro, to crack down on border security.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Ecuador has seen a surge in violence linked to the expansion of organised crime in the country.

Noboa, echoing President Donald Trump in the United States, has blamed Petro for not acting aggressively enough to combat narcotics trafficking. Colombia has, for many years, been the world’s largest source of cocaine.

And like Trump, Noboa has increasingly relied on tariffs against Colombia to force adherence to Ecuador’s national security strategy.

His government has accused Petro’s of failing to cooperate with border security measures. The two countries both sit on the Pacific coast, and they share a land border that stretches roughly 586 kilometres, or 364 miles.

Questions about electricity

Thursday’s announcement follows an initial 30 percent tariff imposed by Quito in early February.

Ecuadorian officials have also justified the protectionist measures by citing a growing trade deficit.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a data analysis firm, nearly 4 percent of Colombian exports go to Ecuador, worth roughly $2.13bn. Ecuador imports significant quantities of medicines and pesticides from Colombia.

Fewer exports go from Ecuador to Colombia, though. Roughly 2.3 percent of Ecuador’s exports abroad go across the shared border, amounting to a value of $863m.

Ecuador’s trade deficit with Colombia sits at roughly $1.03bn through 2025, according to government data, excluding oil.

But in spite of the anticipated tariff hike, it is unclear whether Ecuador will apply the new tariffs to Colombian electricity — a critical resource for the country.

In a retaliatory move following the initial tariffs, Colombia suspended all energy sales to its neighbour.

That suspension risks fuelling tensions in Ecuador against Noboa’s government. Recent droughts have created disruptions to Ecuador’s hydroelectric dams, which provide nearly 70 percent of the country’s power.

Those disruptions have caused widespread power outages in recent years, which in turn have prompted antigovernment protests. In the past, Noboa has responded by buying electricity from Colombia.

Pipeline standoff

The transportation of fossil fuels has also become a flashpoint between Ecuador and Colombia in the aftermath of February’s tariffs.

Noboa’s government has hiked fees for Colombian crude delivered through the Trans-Ecuadorian System Oil Pipeline (SOTE) by 900 percent.

That raises the cost to approximately $30 per barrel. Colombia has responded by halting all oil shipments through the line.

Despite high-level diplomatic efforts, tensions between the neighbouring countries remain at an impasse.

Officials representing foreign policy and security held a meeting this month in Ecuador, but the gathering concluded without a breakthrough.

In announcing the latest tariff hike, Ecuador’s Ministry of Production and Foreign Trade levelled criticism at Colombia for failing to implement “concrete and effective” measures to curb drug trafficking along the border.

Once considered a bastion of stability, Ecuador has seen a spike in homicide and other violent crimes.

According to the Geneva-based Organized Crime Observatory, the Andean nation recorded a homicide rate of approximately one murder every hour last year.

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Ecuador deepens trade dispute with Colombia by raising tariffs

Transport workers from Ecuador and Colombia participate in a rally at the border bridge in Rumichaca, Ecuador, in early February. The workers demanded that Presidents Daniel Noboa and Gustavo Petro eliminate the 30% tariffs imposed on each other at that point. Photo by Xavier Montalvo/EPA

Feb. 26 (UPI) — Ecuador’s government said Thursday it will raise tariffs on imports from Colombia to 50% from 30%, effective Sunday, as tensions escalate over border security, trade and anti-narcotics cooperation between the neighboring Andean countries.

Ecuador’s Ministry of Production, Foreign Trade, Investments and Fisheries said in a statement the tariff increase follows what it described as Colombia’s “lack of implementation of concrete and effective measures” to improve security along their shared border and combat drug trafficking.

“This decision responds to national security criteria, to strengthen shared responsibility in a task that must be joint: confronting the presence of drug trafficking at the border,” the ministry said, according to Ecuadorian outlet Primicias.

Authorities have focused on sensitive border crossings, such as Rumichaca, a major commercial transit point where officials cite heightened risks of smuggling and organized crime.

The announcement came one day after Ecuadorian Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld said the government “maintains dialogue” with Colombia through diplomatic channels, including embassies and direct contacts between officials.

Analysts cited by Ecuadorian newspaper La Prensa said the tariff hike may serve as diplomatic pressure to advance a bilateral security agreement aimed at addressing cross-border crime while stabilizing trade relations.

Trade tensions began early earlier this year when President Daniel Noboa’s administration imposed a 30% tariff on Colombian goods. Officials framed the move as necessary to protect Ecuador’s trade balance and economic security.

Colombia responded with reciprocal measures. Authorities in Bogotá this week began to apply a 30% tariff to 23 categories of Ecuadorian agricultural, food and industrial goods, according to Colombian newspaper El Colombiano.

The dispute has expanded beyond tariffs. Colombia has suspended electricity exports to Ecuador, while Quito has increased fees for transporting Colombian crude oil through its pipeline system — moves that signal broader strain in bilateral economic ties.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s government also filed complaints with the Andean Community, a regional trade bloc, arguing Ecuador’s tariffs violate existing free trade commitments.

Economic impacts already are emerging in sectors such as border commerce, energy and oil production in Colombia’s Putumayo region. Colombia’s National Association of Financial Institutions warned costs for both economies could become significant if the dispute persists.

According to Ecuador’s Federation of Exporters, about $273 million a year in exports could be at risk if Colombia maintains its reciprocal 30% tariff. The group said roughly 580 Ecuadorian companies export to Colombia.

For some firms, up to half of their revenue depends on that market, raising concerns about potential economic fallout if tensions continue.

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Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs on Countries That Back Out of U.S. Trade Deals

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned countries against backing away from recently negotiated trade deals with the U.S. after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs, saying that if they did, he would hit them with much higher duties under different trade laws.

Trump, in a series of social media posts, said he also may impose license fees on trading partners as uncertainty over his next tariff moves gripped the global economy and sent stocks lower.

“Any Country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have ‘Ripped Off’ the U.S.A. for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to. BUYER BEWARE!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump said that despite the court’s decision to invalidate his tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), its decision affirmed his ability to use tariffs under other legal authorities “in a much more powerful and obnoxious way, with legal certainty, than the Tariffs as initially used.”

He suggested that the U.S. could impose new license fees on trading partners but did not provide further details. A spokesperson for the U.S. Trade Representative’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Trump’s plans.

EU Trade Deal on Hold

In Brussels, the European Parliament decided on Monday to postpone a vote on the European Union’s trade deal with the U.S. after Trump said he would impose a new temporary import duty of 15% on imports from all countries.

EU goods under the deal would face a 15% U.S. tariff, with exemptions for hundreds of food items, aircraft parts, critical minerals, pharmaceutical ingredients, and other goods, while the EU would remove duties on many imports from the U.S., including industrial goods.

Trump initially announced the temporary duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 at 10% but promised on Saturday to raise it to 15%, the maximum allowed under the statute. An initial 10% tariff came into effect at a minute past midnight on Tuesday, though it is unclear when the 15% rate would take effect, as Trump has only signed an executive order for the 10% tariff so far.

Markets React

Wall Street stocks ended lower on Monday as renewed tariff uncertainty following the Supreme Court decision, coupled with concerns about AI-fueled disruption, unnerved investors.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.65%
  • The S&P 500 fell 1.02%
  • The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.01%

The dollar weakened against the euro and the yen, reflecting market anxiety over potential trade escalation and economic uncertainty.

Global Trade Uncertainty

The path forward for Trump’s foreign trade deals remains unclear:

  • China has urged Washington to scrap tariff measures.
  • The EU has frozen its approval process.
  • India delayed planned talks.

The U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, said the administration expects to open new Section 301 unfair trade practices investigations on several countries, potentially paving the way for new tariffs.

Meanwhile, a group of 22 Democratic U.S. senators introduced legislation to force the Trump administration to issue refunds for all now-illegal IEEPA-based tariffs within 180 days, although the bill faces an uncertain path to a vote.

Trump also criticized the Supreme Court justices who ruled against him, including two he appointed, and expressed concern that the Court could rule against his administration in a forthcoming birthright citizenship case.

Analysis

Trump’s latest moves reflect his ongoing use of tariffs as a negotiating tool and political messaging device, rather than a targeted economic strategy. By threatening higher tariffs and potential license fees, he is signaling to trading partners that backing away from deals could carry immediate financial consequences.

However, the approach carries multiple risks:

  1. Market Volatility: Investors are already responding with caution, as uncertainty over tariffs can disrupt supply chains, raise costs for U.S. companies, and weigh on stock prices.
  2. Diplomatic Strain: Allies such as the EU, as well as emerging partners like India, may view the moves as destabilizing, complicating future trade negotiations.
  3. Legal Vulnerabilities: Section 122 of the Trade Act has rarely been invoked, and using it in place of IEEPA may invite further litigation, leaving Trump’s administration open to judicial challenges.
  4. Global Trade Ripple Effects: A 15% tariff on broad imports could increase prices for U.S. consumers, provoke retaliatory tariffs, and shift global supply chains, particularly in sectors like tech, automotive, and pharmaceuticals.

Economists suggest that while Trump’s threats may pressure trading partners, the overall economic rationale is weak, since the U.S. is not in a balance-of-payments crisis, and broad-based tariffs risk collateral damage to U.S. businesses and consumers.

In sum, Trump’s tariff strategy highlights a blend of economic pressure and political signaling, but it comes with high uncertainty and potential unintended consequences for both the U.S. and global markets.

With information from Reuters.

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“Sell America” Panic: Markets Plunge Amid Trump’s Tariff Chaos

U.S. trade policy uncertainty has sent shockwaves through global markets, as President Donald Trump moved to impose a 15% tariff following the Supreme Court of the United States ruling invalidating his emergency trade levies. Investors reacted quickly, rotating out of risk assets and the dollar, while seeking shelter in gold, silver, and safe-haven currencies. The turbulence highlights the fragility of global investor confidence when policy reversals collide with high-stakes geopolitical and economic risks.

Wall Street and Currency Volatility

U.S. stock futures fell sharply, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and Nasdaq futures slipping 0.6%. The dollar weakened across major pairs, losing 0.21% versus the yen and 0.34% against the Swiss franc, while the euro gained 0.23%. European equities also reflected caution: the STOXX 600 fell 0.19%, Germany’s DAX slid 0.36%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 edged down 0.1%.

Asian markets, however, were mixed. The MSCI Asia index excluding Japan rose 0.83%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.53% on expectations of lower tariffs for China. Japan’s Nikkei futures fell 0.4% ahead of a holiday, highlighting regional divergence driven by perceived winners and losers in U.S. tariff policy.

Safe-Haven Assets Rally

Amid the uncertainty, investors sought protection in gold and silver, which climbed 0.6% and 2% respectively. Safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, appreciated as risk-off sentiment grew. Government bonds saw slight gains, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipping to 4.077%, reflecting flight-to-quality buying. Brent crude prices fell 1.1% to $70.97 a barrel, reversing gains from earlier geopolitical risk sentiment linked to U.S.-Iran tensions.

Tariff Confusion and Its Economic Implications

Trump’s latest tariffs add layers of ambiguity. While the Supreme Court struck down his emergency powers, the new 15% levy relies on Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, an untested statute. Questions remain over timing, exclusions, and applicability by country. Some nations, including the UK and Australia, had lower tariffs under prior rules, while many Asian exporters faced higher duties. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the average effective tariff rate at 13.7% following the announcement, down from 16% pre-ruling, with the 15% rate potentially dropping to 9.1% after 150 days.

“This circular process of tariff announcements, legal challenges, and revisions is creating profound uncertainty for markets,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at NAB.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

The episode reflects broader structural concerns about U.S. trade policy’s unpredictability. Investors are no longer just reacting to tariffs themselves, but to the instability and volatility of policy enforcement. The uncertainty affects supply chains, corporate earnings forecasts, and capital allocation decisions. Nvidia’s upcoming earnings, for example, are being closely watched, given the company’s 8% weighting in the S&P 500, demonstrating how trade policy shocks can amplify market sensitivity to specific corporate results.

Analytical Outlook

Trump’s oscillating trade policy highlights a critical tension between political objectives and market stability. While tariffs are framed as instruments to advance domestic economic priorities, the resulting unpredictability imposes systemic costs: currency swings, equity market volatility, and flight to safe assets. The mixed regional responses Asian equities partially rallying, European markets cautious underscore how interconnected global trade and finance are, and how unevenly shocks are absorbed.

In essence, this episode illustrates a modern economic paradox: protective trade measures intended to strengthen domestic interests can, in practice, destabilize markets worldwide. Investors now must hedge not only against tariffs themselves but also against the policy volatility that accompanies them a scenario likely to persist as long as U.S. trade decisions are made unilaterally and unpredictably.

Trump’s approach has transformed trade from a predictable framework into a high-stakes, reactive arena, forcing global markets to continuously recalibrate. The lesson is clear: in today’s interconnected financial system, the cost of policy uncertainty often outweighs the intended protectionist benefit.

With information from Reuters.

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S. Korean firms wary as Trump floats global tariffs

epa12767533 Steel products for export are stacked at a port in Pyeongtaek, around sixty kilometers south of Seoul, South Korea, 22 February 2026. Photo by YONHAP / EPA

Feb. 22 (Asia Today) — South Korea’s industrial sector said there is no immediate change in tariff rates but warned that uncertainty has grown after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled plans to impose new global tariffs.

Trump said Friday he would raise the proposed “global tariff” rate from 10% to 15% following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down his earlier reciprocal tariffs. The 15% duties previously applied to South Korea are expected to reappear under the new global tariff framework.

Industry officials said item-specific tariffs on automobiles, steel and semiconductors have not been directly addressed in the latest announcement, leaving companies cautious about possible next steps.

Major exporters are closely monitoring developments as Washington has yet to finalize detailed tariff guidelines.

Semiconductors, one of South Korea’s top export items, are currently subject to product-specific tariff discussions but remain duty-free for now. However, companies have not ruled out the possibility that Washington could soon put semiconductor tariffs on the negotiating table or raise rates to offset revenue lost from the invalidated reciprocal tariffs.

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won said after attending the U.S. Trans-Pacific Dialogue that he would review the court ruling before commenting further, reflecting the cautious stance of corporate leaders.

Automobile and steel tariffs are expected to remain in place regardless of the court decision. Automobiles and auto parts currently face a 15% tariff, while steel and aluminum were hit with a 50% tariff last year. Analysts said additional increases in those sectors appear unlikely in the near term.

For food, cosmetics, home appliances and chemical products, a 15% global tariff would largely mirror the current reciprocal tariff level. If the rate were set at 10% instead, exporters could see a modest reduction compared with the existing 15% rate.

While companies say there is no immediate operational impact, executives are concerned that Trump could invoke other trade authorities to introduce new measures, further complicating trade planning.

Industry officials said businesses are preparing contingency strategies as they await clearer guidance from Washington.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260222010006449

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What will Trump’s latest sweeping tariffs mean for the world? | Donald Trump News

The US president has injected new uncertainty into the global economy with a 15 percent tariff on all imports.

US President Donald Trump has announced a 15 percent across-the-board tariff on all imports.

The move comes just a day after he set tariffs at 10 percent, enraged by a Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of his tariff regime.

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Governments across the world, including those that already struck tariff deals with the United States, will be analysing the new policy.

What will the implications be for them? And how is the global economy reacting to Trump’s latest decision?

Presenter: Tom McRae

Guests:

Deborah Elms – head of trade policy, Hinrich Foundation

Rebecca Christie – senior fellow, Bruegel think tank

Garima Kapoor – deputy head of research, Elara Securities

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Supreme Court ruling offers little relief for Republicans divided on Trump’s tariffs

For a few hours on Friday, congressional Republicans seemed to get some relief from one of the largest points of friction they have had with the Trump administration. It didn’t last.

The Supreme Court struck down a significant portion of President Trump’s global tariff regime, ruling that the power to impose taxes lies with Congress. Many Republicans greeted the Friday morning decision with measured statements, some even praising it, and GOP leaders said they would work with Trump on tariffs going forward.

But by the afternoon, the president made clear he had no intention of working with Congress and would continue to go it alone by imposing a new global import tax. He set the new tax at 10% in an executive order, announcing Saturday he planned to hike it to 15%.

Trump is enacting the new tariff under a law that restricts the import taxes to 150 days and has never been invoked this way before. Though that decision is likely to have major implications for the global economy, it might also ensure that Republicans will have to keep answering for Trump’s tariffs for months to come, especially as the midterm elections near. Opinion polls have shown most Americans oppose Trump’s tariff policy.

“I have the right to do tariffs, and I’ve always had the right to do tariffs,” Trump said at a news conference Friday, contending that he doesn’t need Congress’ approval.

Tariffs have been one of the only areas where the Republican-controlled Congress has broken with Trump. Both the House and Senate at various points had passed resolutions intended to rein in the tariffs imposed on key trade partners such as Canada. It’s also one of the few issues about which Republican lawmakers, who came of age in a party that largely championed free trade, have voiced criticism of Trump’s economic policies.

“The empty merits of sweeping trade wars with America’s friends were evident long before today’s decision,” Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the former longtime Senate Republican leader, said in a statement Friday, noting that tariffs raise the prices of homes and disrupt other industries important to his home state.

Democrats’ approach

Democrats, looking to win back control of Congress, intend to make McConnell’s point their own. At a news conference Friday, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Trump’s new tariffs “will still raise people’s costs and they will hurt the American people as much as his old tariffs did.”

Schumer challenged Republicans to stop Trump from imposing the new global tariff. Democrats on Friday also called for refunds to be sent to U.S. consumers for the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court.

“The American people paid for these tariffs and the American people should get their money back,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said on social media.

The remarks underscored one of the Democrats’ central messages for the midterm campaign: that Trump has failed to make the cost of living more affordable and has inflamed prices with tariffs.

Small and midsize U.S. businesses have had to absorb the import taxes by passing them along to customers in the form of higher prices, employing fewer workers or accepting lower profits, according to an analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute.

Will Congress act?

The Supreme Court decision Friday made it clear that a majority of justices believe that Congress alone is granted authority under the Constitution to levy tariffs. Yet Trump quickly signed an executive order citing the Trade Act of 1974, which grants the president the power to impose temporary import taxes when there are “large and serious United States balance-of-payments deficits” or other international payment problems.

The law limits the tax to 150 days without congressional approval to extend it. The authority has never been used and therefore never tested in court.

Republicans at times have warned Trump about the potential economic fallout of his tariff plans. Yet before his “Liberation Day” of global tariffs last April, GOP congressional leaders declined to directly defy the president.

Some GOP lawmakers cheered on the new tariff policy, highlighting a generational divide among Republicans, with a mostly younger group fiercely backing Trump’s strategy. Rather than heed traditional free trade doctrine, they argue for “America First” protectionism, which they argue will revive U.S. manufacturing.

Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, an Ohio freshman, slammed the Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday and called for GOP lawmakers to “codify the tariffs that had made our country the hottest country on Earth!”

A few Republican opponents of the tariffs, meanwhile, openly cheered the Supreme Court’s decision. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a critic of the administration who is not seeking reelection, said on social media that “Congress must stand on its own two feet, take tough votes and defend its authorities.”

Bacon predicted there would be more Republican resistance coming. He and a few other GOP members were instrumental this month in forcing a House vote on Trump’s tariffs on Canada. As that measure passed, Trump vowed political retribution for any Republican who voted to oppose his tariff plans.

Groves writes for the Associated Press. AP writers Matt Brown, Joey Cappelletti and Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.

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Trump Tariffs Overturned By Supreme Court; $175B Refund Dispute Looms

The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s so-called emergency tariffs doesn’t end a legal fight — it opens another that could put as much as $175 billion in refunds to companies on the line.

In a 6–3 ruling Friday, the US Supreme Court rejected President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping duties. How the government should handle the billions already collected from importers is still not clear.

The US Court of International Trade (USCIT) now faces the task of determining whether — and how — to unwind months of tariff collections that experts say could total roughly $175 billion.

Markets are now parsing the economic fallout. Olu Sonola, head of US economics at Fitch Ratings, called the ruling “Liberation Day 2.0 — arguably the first one with tangible upside for US consumers and corporate profitability.” More than 60% of the 2025 tariffs effectively vanish, he explained. That cuts the effective US tariff rate from about 13% to around 6% and removes more than $200 billion in expected annual collections.

The bigger story is heightened tensions within the US wherever business and politics intersect. After all, tariffs could reappear in revised form, Sonola adds. Indeed, Trump has already retaliated with a new 10% global tariff under different statutory authority.

“Layer on potential tariff refunds, and you introduce a messy operational and legal overhang that amplifies economic uncertainty,” Sonola says.

More Litigation To Come

Since Trump first announced the tariffs last April, hundreds of companies have clapped back with lawsuits.

Wholesale giant Costco, cosmetics firm Revlon and seafood packager Bumble Bee Foods are among the US-based companies demanding refunds. Kawasaki Motors and Yokohama Tire, both based in Japan, also filed complaints.

How those lawsuits will proceed are completely unknown, and that’s OK with Trump.

“At his press conference today Trump suggested that he will try to drag out the refund process by tying it up in court,” Phillip Magness, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, says. “I suspect the USCIT will have very little patience for any delay tactics.” Also, the future of Trump’s trade deals, agreements struck with UK and Japan, for example, are also ambiguous.

“Most of these alleged deals have never been released in writing, so it is questionable whether they were even legally binding in the first place,” Magness says.

Magness also pointed to the differing opinions — especially Justice Neil Gorsuch’s — as a revealing glimpse into the Court’s evolving judicial philosophy.

Gorsuch’s statements leaned heavily on statutory interpretation and the “major questions doctrine,” which requires clear congressional authorization for policies of vast economic or political significance. He sharply criticized Justice Clarence Thomas’s dissent, arguing it would effectively grant the president sweeping authority under vague congressional delegations.

“Gorsuch showed that Thomas’s logic would effectively extend unlimited power to the president in cases of congressional delegation — a position that is not only constitutionally suspect, but at odds with Thomas’s own previous judicial philosophy. I believe that Thomas’s dissent greatly damaged his reputation for consistency as a conservative legal thinker in the ‘original intent’ camp,” Magness explains. “Gorsuch’s concurrence highlighted how Thomas’s position broke sharply from those principles by attempting to carve out an exception for Trump’s tariff agenda.”

‘Significant Consequences’

Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in dissent, warned that the federal government may be stuck holding the bag and required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, despite costs being already passed onto consumers.

Refunds, he continued, would have “significant consequences for the US Treasury.”

Certain industry groups don’t seem to mind, and are already pressing Customs and Border Protection to move quickly, likely through its Automated Commercial Environment system, to process claims.

The American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA), for example, welcomed the Court’s decision, saying it reaffirms that only Congress has constitutional authority to levy duties.

AAFA President and CEO Steve Lamar, in a prepared statement, called the ruling a validation of Article I powers and thanked the justices for their review of the case.

“CBP’s recently modernized, fully electronic refund process should help to expedite this effort,” he said.

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Supreme Court rejects Trump’s tariffs as illegal import taxes

The Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Trump’s sweeping worldwide tariffs are illegal and cannot stand without the approval of Congress.

The 6-3 decision deals Trump his most significant defeat at the Supreme Court.

Last year, the justices issued temporary orders to block several of his initiatives, but Friday’s ruling is the first to hold that the president overstepped his legal authority.

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., speaking for the court, said Congress has the power to impose taxes and tariffs, and lawmakers did not do so in an emergency law that does not mention tariffs.

“The President asserts the extraordinary power to unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration, and scope. In light of the breadth, history, and constitutional context of that asserted authority, he must identify clear congressional authorization to exercise it,” he wrote.

“And until now no President has read the International Emergency Economics Act to confer such power. We claim no special competence in matters of economics or foreign affairs. We claim only, as we must, the limited role assigned to us by Article III of the Constitution. Fulfilling that role, we hold that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” Roberts wrote.

Justice Neil M. Gorsuch in a concurring opinion stressed the role of Congress.

“The Constitution lodges the Nation’s lawmaking powers in Congress alone,” he said.

Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito and Brett M. Kavanaugh dissented.

Trump claimed his new and ever-shifting tariffs would bring in trillions of dollars in revenue for the government and encourage more manufacturing in the United States.

But manufacturing employment has gone down over the past year, in part because American companies have been hurt by higher costs for parts that they import.

Critics said the new taxes hurt small businesses in particular and raised prices for American consumers.

The justices focused on the president’s claimed legal authority to impose tariffs as responses to an international economic emergency.

Several owners of small businesses sued last year to challenge Trump’s import taxes as illegal and disruptive.

Learning Resources, an Illinois company which sells educational toys for children, said it would have to raise its prices by 70% because most of its toys were manufactured in Asia.

A separate suit was filed by a New York wine importer and Terry Precision Cycling, which sells cycling apparel for women.

Both suits won in lower courts. Judges said the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 cited by Trump did not mention tariffs and had not been used before to impose such import taxes.

The law said the president in response to a national emergency may deal with an “unusual and extraordinary threat” by freezing assets or sanctioning a foreign country or otherwise regulating trade.

Trump said the nation’s long-standing trade deficit was an emergency and tariffs were an appropriate regulation.

While rejecting Trump’s claims, the lower courts left his tariffs in place while the administration appealed its case to the Supreme Court.

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EU steel exports to US drop 30% as talks stall over Trump tariffs relief

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European steel shipments to the US declined 30% between June and December 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to recent Eurostat data compiled by Eurofer, the Brussels-based industry group.


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The decline underscores the impact of the US’s 50% tariffs on EU steel, even after the EU and US signed a trade agreement in July 2025 agreeing a blanket 15% US tariff on EU goods. Steel was carved out of that deal and talks to ease duties remain stuck.

“A 30% drop in steel exports to the US within just six months is a clear signal that the blunt 50% tariffs imposed by the US government on EU steel are damaging our industry,” Eurofer Director general Axel Eggert said.

“The US decision to include EU downstream steel products, such as machinery, will have another huge negative impact on us and our European customers,” he added.

Washington imposed 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminium in June 2025 and extended the measures to more than 400 steel and aluminium products in August.

Steel talks tied to EU-US trade deal enforcement

The US has framed the tariffs as a shield against Chinese overcapacity flooding global markets, including Europe.

With Chinese exports increasingly redirected from the US to the EU, the European Commission proposed on 7 October 2025 to halve the volume of steel allowed into the bloc duty-free and to levy a 50% tariff on imports exceeding a quota of 18.3 million tons a year.

The proposal steel needs to be adopted by the EU legislator. Meanwhile Brussels itself hopes to reopen talks with the White House to secure lower duties on EU steel.

But US negotiators have linked any resumption of discussions to the implementation of last summer’s EU-US trade deal, struck by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Donald Trump. Under that pact, the EU agreed to cut its tariffs on US goods to zero while accepting 15% duties on its exports to the US.

With the EU legislative process still requiring approval from lawmakers and member states, Washington’s patience is wearing thin. Tensions could rise further after EU lawmakers introduced amendments that may complicate talks with capitals.

The European Parliament is expected to vote on the deal in March, paving the way for negotiations with member states.

The talks stalled on the European side after the US threatened to annex Greenland militarily from Denmark in January. Although the US has softened its language, it led to delays. The administration’s continuous lobbying for less stringent rules when it comes to digital legislation in Europe has also added obstacles to the talks.

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