surge

Brent crude rises more than 7 percent as Washington and Tehran offer conflicting accounts on ceasefire negotiations.

Oil prices have risen sharply following attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and conflicting messages about the prospect of renewed negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude futures, the primary benchmark for global prices, jumped more than 7 percent in Asia on Monday as the outlook for peace between Washington and Tehran darkened.

Prices eased somewhat later in the morning, with the benchmark at $94.69 a barrel as of 02:05 GMT, up from just under $90.40 on Friday.

The latest price surge came after US President Donald Trump said US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel that had attempted to evade the US blockade of Iran’s ports.

Trump’s announcement followed reports by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre over the weekend that two vessels came under attack while transiting the strait.

Iranian gunboats fired on a tanker, while an “unknown projectile” struck a container ship, according to the UKMTO.

After declaring the strait “completely open” on Friday, Tehran reversed course less than 24 hours later, citing the ongoing US blockade.

Earlier on Sunday, Trump said that a US delegation would travel to Pakistan on Monday to hold a second round of ceasefire talks with Iranian officials.

Iranian state news outlet IRNA later reported that Tehran would not participate in the talks, citing the US blockade and Washington’s “excessive demands” and “unrealistic expectations”.

A two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is set to expire on Wednesday if the sides cannot agree on an extension.

An initial round of talks held in Islamabad earlier this month broke down without any agreement between the sides.

Iran’s effective closure of the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, has driven a surge in fuel prices worldwide, forcing governments to tap emergency supplies and roll out energy-saving measures.

Nineteen vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, up from 10 the previous day, but far below the historical average of 138 daily transits, according to the UKMTO.

Asia’s main stock markets opened higher on Monday despite the dimming prospects of de-escalation.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 1 percent in morning trading, while South Korea’s KOSPI gained about 1.3 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose about 0.5 percent, while the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai gained more than 0.4 percent.

WASHINGTON — With a fragile ceasefire set to expire with Iran in a matter of days, President Trump is still deciding between diplomacy and a resumption of fighting that may ultimately hinge on his definition of victory.

Negotiations have continued over the last week between the warring sides over a potential agreement that would end the conflict and curtail Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with interlocutors from Pakistan passing messages that have kept talks alive. Tehran has floated an extension of the two-week ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, that is under active consideration by the American side.

But the Islamic Republic has simultaneously vowed retaliation over a new U.S. blockade of Iranian ports that in effect cut off Tehran’s oil sales, which make up nearly 85% of the country’s export revenue. And the Trump administration is deploying up to 10,000 additional troops to the region, on top of the 50,000 already there, both reinforcing the blockade and threatening ground operations if diplomacy fails.

Conflicting messages from the Trump administration are designed to escalate pressure on Tehran ahead of the ceasefire deadline, potentially extracting concessions at the negotiating table.

But speaking with reporters, Trump has made it clear he is seeking a way to end the war for good.

“I think it’s close to over,” Trump told Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” on Wednesday. “I view it as very close to over. If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we’re not finished. We’ll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly.”

Negotiations toward that end have proved more challenging than the administration initially anticipated.

Trump has said he started the war in order to eliminate Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, degrade its ballistic missile and drone programs, and destroy its navy. But in talks, the Iranians have not relented on their right to enrich uranium, to maintain conventional defensive capabilities and to police traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital waterways.

Tehran rejected a proposal by U.S. negotiators last week for a 20-year pause on Iran’s domestic enrichment of fissile material, with the Iranians countering with a five-year moratorium, one official said.

In his interview with Fox, Trump said the talks were going so well that an extension of the ceasefire might not be necessary. Yet, speaking with the New York Post, Trump suggested he wouldn’t settle for less than an indefinite cap on Iran’s nuclear work.

“I’ve been saying they can’t have nuclear weapons,” Trump said, “so I don’t like the 20 years.”

“I don’t want them to feel like they have a win,” he added.

The U.S. ceasefire with Iran was predicated on the resumption of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. But Iranian threats of a new toll system and warnings of drifting mines have limited traffic, prompting the Trump administration to announce a full blockade of the strait. Despite the U.S. threat, ships have continued transiting the passage this week, suggesting the U.S. blockade has focused more specifically on Iranian ports.

Amid the impasse, global oil prices remain stubbornly high — a concern for Republicans entering this year’s midterm election season. Trump told Fox that he expected prices to drop to prewar levels by the time of the vote in November.

“There’s gonna be a hit, but it’s going to recover, I think, fully,” Trump said. “I think that we will be somewhere around where we were — maybe even lower. And when this is over, I think the stock market is going to boom.”

A second round of high-level negotiations could take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, over the next several days, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters at a news briefing Wednesday.

Pakistani officials traveled to Tehran on Wednesday to deliver a message from the U.S. delegation, potentially laying the groundwork for new, in-person talks.

“He’s made his red lines in these negotiations very clear to the other side,” Leavitt said. “We feel good about the prospects of a deal.”