Summers

Europe’s summers are transforming. What were once considered exceptionally high temperatures, such as the near 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) being experienced in Prague, are becoming the norm.

According to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, late May and June heatwaves brought daily average temperatures of more than 10C (18F) above the norm in parts of France, the United Kingdom and Spain.

Western European temperatures averaged 20.74C (69F) in June, 3.06C (5.4F) above the 1991-2020 average.

With some temperatures climbing well above 40C, prolonged droughts, destructive wildfires and shrinking rivers are no longer freak events but recurring features of European summers.

Scientists have repeatedly warned that climate change would increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather. Heatwaves now last longer, arrive earlier and affect more countries simultaneously.

The consequences extend beyond uncomfortable temperatures. They are reshaping ecosystems, economies and daily life across much of the continent.

Wildfires: Larger, earlier and more destructive

Extreme heat dries vegetation, turning forests, scrubland and grass into fuel for fires. When strong winds combine with prolonged drought, fires can spread more rapidly and become ever more difficult to control.

Countries across the Mediterranean area – including Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy and France – have a history of wildfires. But fire season now starts earlier, lasts longer, and affects regions that in the past faced a much lower risk.

The European Union recorded at least 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of land burned in the region last year, nearly double the historical average.

Some fires are so intense they generate their own weather systems. Known as pyrocumulonimbus clouds, these towering smoke clouds can produce powerful winds, lightning and embers that ignite new fires several kilometres away, making them even harder to contain.

Beyond the immediate destruction of homes and forests, wildfires damage biodiversity, release dangerous quantities of carbon dioxide and leave landscapes vulnerable to erosion and flooding when heavy rain eventually returns.

Water under pressure

Heatwaves also place enormous strain on Europe’s water resources. Higher temperatures increase evaporation from rivers, lakes and reservoirs while reducing soil moisture. Mountain snowpacks melt earlier in spring, leaving less water available during the hottest months.

Rivers such as the Rhine, Po and Danube have repeatedly experienced unusually low water levels during recent summers. Low rivers disrupt shipping, reduce hydroelectric power generation and can threaten industrial operations that rely on river water for cooling.

Agriculture is often among the hardest hit sectors due to high temperatures. Farmers across Southern and Central Europe are dealing with reduced crop yields, livestock heat stress and greater demand for irrigation at the same time water is becoming scarce.

A study released in May by the European Investment Bank and the European Commission projected that climate change threatens to increase annual European agricultural losses by as much as 66 percent by 2050, threatening the future of food production.

Some regions are already restricting water use during prolonged dry spells, a sign of how climate change is beginning to affect everyday life.

Health hazards, strain on energy systems intensify

Heat is among Europe’s deadliest natural hazards. Unlike floods or storms, the impacts are often less visible but more widespread.

Older people, children and people with existing medical conditions are most at risk. Hospitals see increased admissions linked to dehydration, heatstroke and cardiovascular illness during heatwaves.

Cities are especially vulnerable because concrete and asphalt absorb and retain heat, creating what is known as the urban heat island effect. Night-time temperatures remain high, preventing buildings and people from cooling down.

The growing use of air conditioning offers some protection but creates another challenge.

Electricity demand often surges during heatwaves as millions of people seek relief from the high temperatures. This coincides with a slump in efficiency in power generation as warmer rivers mean that the cooling of thermal and nuclear power stations is more of a challenge.

This creates a growing challenge for Europe’s energy systems as demand rises precisely when supply can become more constrained.

Economic costs escalate

The financial effects from this environmental crisis are mounting. The European Environment Agency estimates that extreme weather has already cost Europe 738 billion euros ($850bn) from 1980 to 2023. At least 162 billion euros ($190bn) of that was in the most recent three-year period.

The agency projected a lack of robust climate action could cost the European economy more than 5.6 trillion euros ($6.4 trillion) by 2050. These costs affect almost all sectors of the economy.

Wildfires destroy homes, tourism infrastructure and businesses. Drought reduces agricultural production while low river levels disrupt trade and manufacturing.

Outdoor workers in construction and agriculture face reduced productivity as extreme heat makes working safely more difficult.

Insurance losses from weather disasters have also risen sharply over recent decades. Three-quarters of Europe’s natural disaster losses are uninsured, according to the European Central Bank.

Meanwhile, governments face growing costs associated with responding to emergencies and rebuilding communities.

Many economists argued that investing in climate resilience today will be significantly cheaper than repeatedly paying the costs of more frequent disasters.

Adapting as warming accelerates

Climate projections consistently indicate that Europe will continue to warm faster than the global average. Southern Europe is expected to experience hotter and drier summers, increasing the likelihood of severe drought and wildfires.

Even Northern Europe, traditionally associated with milder summers, is expected to experience more intense heatwaves. Cairngorms National Park in the Scottish Highlands recently witnessed wildfires that forced local communities to flee

Communities are already adapting to some extent. Cities are planting more trees to provide shade, redesigning streets to reduce heat, expanding early warning systems and have begun developing cooling centres for vulnerable residents.

Water conservation, improved forest management and more resilient infrastructure are becoming important parts of long-term planning. Agriculture is also changing as farmers experiment with drought-resistant crops, different planting schedules and more efficient irrigation systems.

But scientists stressed that adaptation alone will not be enough. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the conditions that create extreme weather are expected to become more common in the years ahead.

Europe’s recent summers are no longer viewed simply as isolated weather events. They offer a glimpse of what a warmer climate could mean.

The challenge lies in responding to today’s extremes and preparing populations for climates in which intense anomalies become normal.

Temperatures in Europe hit a new high this summer, with hotter early-summer heatwaves triggering illness, deaths and the collapse of infrastructure across the continent.

Transport buckled on Sunday as temperatures hit 40C (104F) across Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland. In France, days averaging 29.8C (85.6F) – spiking to 44C (111.2F) in one town – gave way to storms, leaving an estimated 1,000 excess deaths behind.

Scenes like this may well be the new normal.

Last summer’s heatwave alone caused an estimated 2,300 climate-related deaths in 12 European countries, WWA says.

A study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) has found that intense heat on this level is now tens to hundreds of times more likely than it was in 2003, and was unheard of 50 years ago.

“Heat-related mortality is likely to remain a feature of Europe’s warming climate,” warns Dr Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization (WHO)’s regional director for Europe. Deaths have already risen by an average of 52 per million people annually since the 1990s, he told Al Jazeera – a trend he says shows little sign of reversing on its own.

So what does this mean for the future? Are these temperatures the new normal, and if so, why?

We asked the climate experts:

Is this really the new normal?

Yes, it certainly looks that way. According to WWA, heatwaves were generally about 3.5C cooler in June 1976, and 2C cooler even in 2003.

“Think of it like a race where the starting line has been moved much closer to the finish,” Dr Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading told Al Jazeera. Ultimately, this is down to global warming, he says.

Europe has warmed at roughly twice the global average since the 1980s, according to the European Commission’s climate change service, Copernicus.

Deoras says this amounts to “loading the dice” towards once-rare extremes.

WWA’s modelling goes further: at current emissions rates, an event of the magnitude of this summer’s heatwave is expected to occur every couple of decades – and today’s extremes are effectively a preview of what an ordinary summer could look like by the middle of the century.

Why is this happening in Europe now?

The immediate trigger is a stalled high-pressure system, or a “heat dome”, which traps heat in one concentrated area for days or weeks.

Heat domes aren’t new, but Europe’s already-shifted baseline means the same pattern now produces far hotter outcomes than decades ago, Deoras told Al Jazeera.

Professor Hannah Cloke of the University of Reading told Al Jazeera that’s because the warming behind new, extreme weather patterns comes from emissions released decades ago, and the climate system takes time to respond – so we’re feeling the effects now of pollution from the past.

Copernicus’s European State of the Climate 2025 report confirms this: more than 95 percent of the continent saw above-average annual temperatures last year, alongside record Alpine glacier loss and the highest sea-surface temperatures ever measured in Europe.

And because Europe is warming roughly twice as fast as the rest of the planet, that gap with the global average is projected to keep widening – meaning whatever the world experiences on average in the coming decades, Europe will likely see first, and worse.

Is this trajectory irreversible?

Partly. Some of the damage is permanent. Some of it isn’t – yet.

Take glaciers. Because the effects of pollution from decades ago are cumulative, “some of what we are experiencing this summer is already locked in”, Cloke says.

Alpine glaciers, which feed major European rivers, she says, have already shrunk past the point of recovery, and their contribution to summer river flow is “permanently reduced”.

Not everything is set in stone, however. “Every tonne of emissions avoided changes the odds of what comes next,” Cloke says.

What we do now, therefore, will decide the difference between summers that are simply hard to live with in the future, and summers that become “genuinely beyond our ability to cope with”.

Some resources, like groundwater in northern Europe, can still recover – “but the window to act is narrowing with each dry year”, she says.

What is this doing to human health?

The toll is already severe and likely to worsen.

The Lancet Countdown Europe calculates that there were 62,000 heat-related deaths across the region in 2024 alone, with projections showing a steep further rise by 2050 if we don’t make changes.

Much of the problem, Kluge told Al Jazeera, is architectural and largely unaddressed.

“Most of the housing stock across this region was designed for a colder climate – to retain heat, not shed it,” he said, warning that without large-scale retrofitting, deaths could keep climbing past 2050 regardless of how good warning systems become.

His prescription: treat heat as predictable, not an emergency.

“Governments need to plan for heat the way they plan for winter flu – as a recurring, predictable challenge requiring permanent infrastructure, not a one-off crisis requiring emergency improvisation.” The highest-return step, he added, is identifying who’s most at risk – often older people living alone – and reaching them before a heatwave hits, not after.

What else can be done?

Cloke points to two priorities: early warning systems that reliably reach the people who most need to be protected, and an overhaul of water infrastructure in Europe which has been built for rainfall patterns that no longer exist.

Deoras says emissions also still matter: cutting them won’t eliminate heatwaves, which are “a natural part of the climate system”, but doing so would make them “less intense, less frequent and shorter-lived”.

None of the experts who spoke to Al Jazeera describe this as hopeless.

They do warn that the window of opportunity for addressing the issue is narrowing: infrastructure can still be retrofitted, emissions can still be cut, warning systems can still be improved – if the decisions to do so are made now, rather than after the next heatwave.

What a “normal” European summer looks like in 2050 is still being written, they say.