struggles

Global Economy Struggles to Achieve Balance in Divided Times

As leaders gathered in Bangkok, discussions highlighted the fractures between economic winners and losers.

The global economy appears to be on a fragile foundation, and the finance ministers of Argentina, Greece, Nigeria, and Thailand agree that all economies should get their houses in order.

“Ideally, when you put your fiscal house in order, it shouldn’t be because of experience,” said Kyriakos Pierrakakis, the Minister of Economy and Finance for Greece and President of the Eurogroup, during a panel discussion that took place at the annual International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. “It should be because of inspiration.”

Although the IMF projects global economic growth at 3.1% throughout 2026, its composition has changed.

The global economy is increasingly split between a handful of nations with AI-driven economies and those without. The IMF has upgraded AI-driven economies while it downgraded many fuel-importing nations and those affected by war. 

However, AI may be a curse and a blessing.

“The global economy’s dependence on AI investment enthusiasm creates a vulnerability, with risks of disappointment cycles, as per Amara’s Law, and the potential loss of human control over AI systems,” said fellow panelist Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director.

Exacerbating the situation are growing excessive export-import imbalances. Developing countries struggle to compete with export-oriented countries that have built their manufacturing base over decades. At the same time, developing economies struggle to compete for capital against an economy that takes in capital for productive use but leaves little for the rest of the world.

“The biggest source of imbalance comes from the two largest economies, China and the United States: China not having enough domestic consumption, exporting a lot, and the U.S. the opposite, not saving enough, having a high level of debt and deficit,” she said. 

Achieving Resiliency

It’s best for a country to put its fiscal house in order during periods of economic calm, but human nature tends to act only amid a crisis, said Georgieva. “Nonetheless, we have excellent examples of countries that have brought back fiscal discipline. They have taken the reforms, structural reforms that promote growth.”

The formula for building a resilient economy is discipline, transparency, and consistency, which, according to Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, build credibility, said Cardoso, who spoke on the panel.

To address a persistent currency crisis and the loss of investor confidence, Nigeria eliminated its fuel subsidy in 2023 and, in June 2024, implemented multiple foreign exchange rates.

“These should have been done a long time ago, but they were not done,” he said.

The central bank also enacted an aggressive 800-basis-point (bp) increase in 2024, including a single 400-bp increase. As a result, the central bank brought inflation down by about 20 percentage points, to about 15%, and raised foreign reserves to their highest level in 18 years.

“Painful though they were, it brought back credibility because we were consistent in saying certain things and doing them,” said Cardoso.

In Argentina, the government eliminated its fiscal deficit, which was 5% of GDP, by cutting spending by 30% and growing the economy for the third consecutive year through increased exports. These measures helped bring inflation down to approximately 30% today from 211% in 2023.

“We have a fiscal surplus, a commercial surplus, and a current account surplus,” said panelist Luis Caputo, Argentina’s Minister of Economy. “The way we will continue in the following years will be by fulfilling our goal of reducing the weight of the state in the economy.”

Thailand aims to maintain macroeconomic stability amid an energy shock and a few years of supply-chain fragmentation. Even as part of the AI value chain, it has kept sovereign bond yields low. 

“Our government 10-year yield is around 2.3%, so much lower than the U.S. and Europe, thanks to fiscal discipline,” said Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister.

The Thai government has also made structural changes to turn these economic shocks into opportunities for low-income small and mid-sized enterprises by helping them adapt to current shocks and prepare for future ones.

It also expects to work more closely with its ASEAN partners to expand trade and investment opportunities to establish a resilient economy.

“For example, 22% of our trade is with ASEAN countries compared to 60% for the E.U.,” he said. “So, we could do more trade together.”

In Europe, the EU is working to close gaps in its pan-European reforms, which each member state must implement.

“Fragmentation in Europe is a strategic tax,” said Greece’s Pierrakakis. “The IMF has made a calculation that the barriers that exist in services or in manufacturing are equivalent to having a 40%-44% tariff for manufacturing.”

Shocks Happen

Even if countries can build a resilient economy, Argentina’s Caputo was skeptical that it would withstand future shocks.

“It looks like these shocks are going to take longer than anyone of us would have anticipated or hoped,” he said. “If that is the case, resilience by definition will have to last longer. And we don’t want to rely that much on that because resilience is there until it is not anymore.”

Caputo also noted that the whole world wouldn’t need to collapse to create a need for resilience. “Just one important country getting into trouble could probably generate systemic risk and affect us all.”

When questioned about France’s current economic distress, Greece’s Pierrakakis responded, “Well, I would say first we’re mindful, but we’re not alert. And we’re not alert in the sense that we know the fundamentals are there and they’re strong. If there’s one key word about Europe, it’s resilience.”

Rob Daly covers the economy and fintech. He can be reached at rdaly@gfmag.com

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Oregon’s governor struggles for reelection despite blue tide

With just over two weeks left until election day, Democrats can barely contain their glee.

Control of the House seems about to fall into their eager laps. Senate races in states that are normally cardinal red — Alaska, Iowa, Kansas and Texas among them — have grown fiercely competitive.

And, for the first time since 2010, a Democrat may soon be sitting in the governor’s office in more than half the 50 states. As recently as 2017, just 16 of them had Democratic governors — the lowest number in nearly a century.

The party owes a big thank you to President Trump, whose political standing seems to be sinking, like a depth charge, lower by the day. The only question is how much damage he inflicts on fellow Republicans.

There are, however, exceptions to every political trend, outliers in every election, a contest that zigs when races just about everywhere else are zagging.

Oregon, that crunchy and damp citadel of Left Coast liberalism, hasn’t elected a Republican governor since President Reagan was midway through his first term. In 2024, Kamala Harris walloped Donald Trump by more than 14 percentage points, extending a decades-long Democratic presidential winning streak.

And yet the state’s Democratic governor, Tina Kotek, is on the defensive as she fights for a second term in November, burdened by a dismal approval rating and a sense that things have been pretty lousy in Oregon under her leadership.

The state “hasn’t thrived in the last decade, and certainly hasn’t thrived since COVID, the way other states have,” said John Horvick, one of Oregon’s leading independent pollsters.

Kotek, a former speaker of the state House — and a highly effective lawmaker in that role — made some very concrete promises.

“She was going to build 36,000 new homes. She was going to improve our educational outcomes and make improvements to behavioral health in the state,” Horvick said. “Voters give her poor marks on all those.”

Most notably, perhaps, the epidemic of homelessness — which has curdled Portland’s hipster image and agitated Oregonians more than just about any issue in recent years — hasn’t abated under Kotek, despite a promise to make the problem her top priority.

Governor Tina Kotek speaks to protesters at a rally

Gov. Tina Kotek speaks to opponents of data center development during a demonstration at the state Capitol in Salem, Ore., on Sept. 8, 2026.

(Alex Milan Tracy / Sipa USA / Associated Press)

The Democrat still remains the favorite to win reelection. Oregon’s gubernatorial races tend to be closer than presidential contests and voters have been shown a reluctance to heave their governor from office, even when they tell pollsters they’re not happy with the incumbent or the state of their state.

“We watch this movie every four years in Oregon, where it looks really, really close and then, in the end, the Democrat wins,” said Kari Chisholm, a political strategist in Portland.

That may happen again. But Kotek’s travails show the perils of incumbency this angry election season, even for a Democratic swimming with a blue tide.

Thirty-six states are electing governors in November. Most of the contests lean toward one party or the other, like in California, where Democrat Xavier Becerra appears a shoo-in to replace Gavin Newsom.

But a dozen races are at least somewhat competitive, including toss-ups in Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin. All of the hardest-fought contests are in states that Trump carried in 2024 — several by double-digits — with Oregon being the lone exception.

Kotek, who’s been rated one of the least popular governors in America, is facing a rematch against Christine Drazan, a former GOP state House leader who now serves in the state Senate. In 2022, she lost narrowly lost to Kotek, 47% to 44%, in a three-way contest.

Unlike four years ago, Kotek has a gubernatorial record to defend and the case Drazan makes against her is succinct.

“Tina Kotek told Oregonians that she would solve the problems and challenges facing our state,” Drazan said in the candidates’ first debate this month. “She hasn’t.”

In a recent Fox News interview, Drazan elaborated.

“We have record high businesses that have gone out of business, bankruptcies, businesses that are leaving, family bankruptcies are at an all-time high,” Drazan said, exaggerating some. “Oregon is uniquely bad right now. It’s not a national issue, it’s here at home.”

Suggesting the state’s problems are indigenous is an obvious effort to lay responsibility on Kotek and absolve Trump, whose policies — ruinous tariffs, a reckless war, budget cuts — have slashed healthcare benefits, stoked inflation and driven fuel prices to all-time highs.

Further distancing herself from the Republican brand, Drazan has undergone a distinct makeover since winning the GOP primary in May. “Tough. Tested. Conservative,” is no longer the descriptive shorthand she uses on her campaign website. Now it’s “Mom. Public Servant. Champion for All.”

Drazan’s revised campaign biography also omits her opposition to various Democratic-backed policies, such as gun control, and her culture-warrior vow to “protect girls’ sports and keep men out of their locker rooms.” Instead, the Oregonian newspaper noted, her emphasis is now affordability and relatability.

Despite that, Kotek has continued wielding her sharpest-pronged political weapon, tying Drazan — an “out-of-touch MAGA extremist,” in her campaign’s parlance — to the unpopular president.

“I think we all know that there have been a lot of challenges facing our state and they’re still coming at us because of the confusion and disruption coming from Washington, D.C.,” Kotek said during the candidates’ third and final debate last week. “It’s just a fact. It’s upending who we are as a state and it is … making it harder for us to solve the problems that we have ahead of us.”

Passing the buck and pointing her finger is not exactly a message of triumph, uplift and achievement, but it may be enough to win Kotek a second term.

Grudgingly.

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Tom Cruise film Digger could lose $245m as The Social Recknoning also struggles at box office

Tom Cruise’s latest film Digger is expected to lose around $245m (£185m), Hollywood analysts have said, after the film’s continuing poor performance in cinemas.

Ticket sales for the satirical black comedy, which stars Cruise as oil magnate Digger Rockwell, dropped by around 60% in the movie’s second weekend.

It brings Digger’s total box office takings to around $35m (£26m) globally so far. The film is estimated to have cost its studio Warner Bros around $280m (£211m) to make and market.

But Cruise said last week, external that he “never thought of movies when I’m making them [in terms of] opening weekend,” adding he was instead focused on making films that “hopefully will translate, last and evolve”.

The film’s takings relative to its budget mean it could become one of the biggest film flops in Hollywood history.

Digger’s performance is in sharp contrast to the success of IP-driven hits starring Cruise in recent years, such as new instalments of the Top Gun and Mission: Impossible franchises.

Digger is directed by Alejandro G Iñárritu, best known for films such as Birdman, Babel and The Revenant.

Hollywood trade publication Variety said Digger was expected to end its box office run with around $50m (£38m) worldwide.

The film would need around $350m (£264m) to break even, due to its budget, marketing costs, the portion of ticket sales that go to theatres and the likely spend on an awards season campaign.

However, a Warner Bros spokesman pushed back slightly on the figure, telling Variety the film’s break even point was $300m (£227m).

Digger was the last standalone release for the studio before its recent takeover by Paramount.

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Ebola death toll surpasses 4,000 as DR Congo struggles to suppress outbreak | Ebola News

Burning of a Ebola-hit transit camp sends 19,000 fleeing, illustrating the difficulties of controlling epidemic.

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ebola outbreak has now killed more than 4,000 people, according to government data, making it the worst epidemic in the country’s history.

Figures released on Friday showed that the death toll has risen to 4,018, and confirmed cases had ⁠reached 8,300 across seven provinces, as the government continues to struggle to contain the outbreak.

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Weak infrastructure, the remoteness of the region in eastern DRC, and ongoing conflict with armed groups near the borders with South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda have hindered efforts to respond to cases quickly and effectively.

The United Nations reported on Friday that an Ebola-hit camp housing a transit centre for infected patients was burned by soldiers earlier this week as they were looking for weapons on the outskirts of Bunia, capital city of Ituri Province, which is at the epicentre of the outbreak.

The incident forced 19,000 people to flee the camp.

“The enormous challenge of halting the spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) just became even harder after a key transit centre for patients requiring treatment burned down in Ituri province,” the UN said.

People’s mistrust and anger towards health workers and authorities have also contributed to the obstacles the government faces in its efforts to contain the outbreak.

A senior ‌member of DRC’s governing Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party was beaten to death days ago after taking part ⁠in a radio programme to raise awareness about the epidemic.

The attack on Marie-Celestin Karondwa, a local official with UDPS, took place last Sunday at his home in Butembo, an Ebola hotspot in the eastern North Kivu province. His house was set on fire afterwards, and he died at hospital from his injuries.

The World Health Organization has warned that the epidemic is “far from over” and on track to surpass the regional 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak, which killed more than 11,000 people, primarily in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

Caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, the current epidemic became the largest and deadliest in the DRC after surpassing the 2018-2020 epidemic.

Several treatments and vaccines are being trialled against Bundibugyo, but currently, there is no approved vaccine or treatment.

The current outbreak, which is the DRC’s 17th, has spread rapidly since it was officially declared on May 15.

More than ⁠2,000 patients have recovered from the Ebola epidemic so far. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said in its latest news conference that the number of confirmed cases is falling, although that could be attributed to insecurity and challenges in getting communities to cooperate in some of the hotspots.

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Ebola cases surpass 8,000 as DRC struggles to control outbreak | Ebola News

Fatalities reached 3,901 across the DRC as health workers battle community anger and a vaccine-resistant strain.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has recorded over 8,000 cases of Ebola, including almost 4,000 deaths, amid the worst outbreak in the country’s history, according to government data.

The latest report, published on Monday by the DRC’s public health institute, put the number of cases at 8,067 ⁠⁠and deaths at ⁠⁠3,901, representing a fatality rate of 48.4 percent.

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People’s mistrust and anger towards government policies have become a major obstacle in limiting the outbreak since it was officially declared on May 15. A senior ‌‌member of the ruling UDPS party was beaten to death after raising awareness about the epidemic on radio, a party representative said on Monday. The ⁠⁠killing happened on Sunday in Butembo in North Kivu province, which has become a hotspot in the ongoing Ebola outbreak.

The number of cases has levelled off after a rapid increase, according to the African Union’s health agency, Africa CDC, though it still considers the outbreak “not under control”.

Several treatments and vaccines are being trialled against the Bundibugyo strain of the Ebola virus, for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment.

The current outbreak, which is the DRC’s 17th, has spread rapidly. Experts say that weak health infrastructure, the region’s remoteness and ongoing conflict near the DRC’s borders with South Sudan, Uganda and Rwanda have damaged efforts to respond to cases quickly and effectively.

Those issues have also hindered the government’s efforts to fight the outbreak, increasing public mistrust and anger towards its suggested prevention measures.

Marie-Celestin ⁠⁠Karondwa, acting president of the UDPS party’s federal executive committee in Butembo, was attacked by local residents after appearing on a radio show where he discussed Ebola prevention measures, according to the Congolese health authorities.

In their latest case report, authorities highlighted a “low capacity” to treat cases at health centres in Ituri province and described a “complete shortage” of stocks of an experimental vaccine against the Bundibugyo strain in the northeastern province of Tshopo, where cases have been recorded.

The World Health Organization has said the outbreak is “far from over” and on track to surpass the regional 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak. It killed more than 11,000 people, primarily in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The United States announced last week that it was releasing a further $267 million to help fight Ebola. It is hoping for pledges from other countries to meet a target of $2 billion to fight the disease, mainly found in the DRC.

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Fury vs Joshua: The compromises & power struggles that shaped heavyweight fight

Speaking to BBC Sport after the fight was announced, Fury’s promoter Frank Warren repeatedly returned to one word: compromise.

“Everybody’s got to make a compromise,” the Queensberry boss said. “Tyson really compromised. He didn’t dig his heels in.

“He said, ‘Fine, wherever they want it, I’ll do it. If they want me to go to New York, I’ll go. They want it in the UK, I just want to get the fight on.”

The fighters had already agreed to the contest but the venue was a sticking point.

Warren says Netflix wanted New York, while Joshua, 36, was determined to fight in Britain. Predictably, their camps disagree over who finally got it done.

Joshua’s promoter Eddie Hearn described the push to keep the fight in Britain as a “two-man crusade”.

“AJ has turned down money to keep it in the UK,” Hearn told the Matchroom YouTube channel. “I wouldn’t be able to look people in the eye if I was part of the movement to take this to the US.”

Hearn says Joshua had specifically requested protection for a UK fight in his contract and refused to relent.

“We were under so much pressure to fold,” he added. “It was only really the support of the British public that made Joshua stand 10 toes down and say no.”

Warren sees it differently.

He says Fury, 38, could have insisted on his own contractual position but instead accepted Britain to ensure the fight did not collapse.

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