Shipping

Middle East Conflict Opens New Shipping Opportunities for Africa

As ships bypass the Red Sea, increased traffic around the Cape of Good Hope could benefit African economies.

The ongoing conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by the Houthis, a Yemen-based militant group, in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have forced many shipping companies to explore alternative routes around Africa. While the financial and operational costs are significant, the shift presents new economic opportunities for African countries, particularly those positioned to serve the growing volume of maritime traffic.

The main detour causes international shippers to bypass the Red Sea and the Suez Canal corridor, traveling around the southern tip of Africa past the Cape of Good Hope. This longer route can add up to two weeks to a trip from Europe to Asia, increasing energy and shipping costs.

The Cape of Good Hope was already one of the world’s busiest sea routes before recent developments, driven by the conflict with Iran that began in February 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) World Oil Transit Chokepoint Report, released in March 2026, approximately 9 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products pass around the Cape of Good Hope, accounting for 11% of global seaborne oil trade.

Despite the additional shipping time and cost, many major container operators still chose to divert mid-voyage from the original Suez Canal route because of ongoing threats and blockades, as the Houthi forces continue to advance along the Red Sea coast and target regional maritime traffic.

New Shipping Opportunities for Africa

The increase in traffic around Africa, and more specifically around the Cape of Good Hope, provides various African countries with new economic and diplomatic opportunities. The main economic benefits stem from the expenses and services associated with the new shipping routes. 

First, the Institute for Strategic Studies Africa 2026 Report highlights that most vessels do not call at South African ports. These ports can offer international shippers key high-value services, including ship repair and maintenance, crew changes, resupply, and medical support. While major South African and Namibian ports, such as Durban and Walvis Bay, can provide a full range of services and logistics connectivity for this new traffic pattern, other countries, such as Kenya and Mauritius, can also connect this traffic to the Indian Ocean shipping needs.

Second, global pressure to replace shipping fuel with more sustainable, environmentally friendly alternatives is creating strong renewable energy markets and green hydrogen potential in African nations, along with an opportunity to capitalize on this shift. A recent report by the European Council on Foreign Relations shows that countries such as Morocco and Kenya can serve as major marine refueling hubs. As trade and investment in renewable energy have become a diplomatic currency in Africa, the ability to influence shippers’ emissions can strengthen diplomatic relations among relevant nations.

Finally, as almost 70% of the previous Red Sea freight has been rerouted around South Africa, according to the Center for Security and International Studies, African nations like Djibouti are becoming key players in the new maritime security space. These nations can offer foreign nations improved physical and technological maritime security and use it to advance negotiated diplomatic and commercial goals.

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US bombs cargo vessel in Gulf of Oman ‘trying to run Iran blockade’ | US-Israel war on Iran

A US fighter jet bombed a commercial cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, according to CENTCOM. The US military says the ship’s crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to ‘breach its blockade’ of Iranian ports.

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Bulgaria ends search for missing crew after drone strike sinks cargo ship | Conflict News

Rescuers halt operation off the coast with no survivors found, following a Black Sea attack that also damaged a second vessel.

Bulgarian authorities have ended search operations after confirming no survivors were found following a drone strike that sank a ship off the country’s coast.

Drones hit two commercial vessels early on Tuesday as attacks on Black Sea shipping increase amid an intensifying Russia-Ukraine war. One caught fire, and the other sank.

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“There is no trace of the sailors,” Rumen Nikolov, the head of the country’s Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Centre, told reporters on Wednesday.

The search stopped late on Tuesday and would not continue, he added.

Eighteen Turkish and Indian crew members were rescued from the ship that caught fire, but the crew members from the vessel that sank remain missing.

Authorities have not said how many people are missing, but according to the Maritime.bg specialised website, 10 people were on board the ship.

Nikolov said the ⁠incident occurred in a so-called “responsible search and rescue zone” and not in the country’s territorial waters, which extend to 12 nautical miles off the coast.

“What was found from the sunken ship was one overturned boat, three life rafts and debris from the ship’s equipment that was floating on the surface of the sea,” he said.

Asked whether any debris from the drones had been recovered, Nikolov said: “I have no information about drone debris.”

Prime Minister Rumen Radev has described the attack as “absolutely unacceptable”.

European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen has also condemned the incident.

Bulgarian authorities have said they are not yet able to determine the origin of the drones.

A distress beacon signal from the ship that sank was received at 2:54am on Tuesday (23:54 GMT on Monday), while the distress signal from the other ship was received at 3:23am (00:23 GMT), Nikolov said.

Both commercial ships were managed by Turkiye-based companies, according to the Equasis merchant shipping database.

They were hit about 80 nautical miles (150km) east of the Bulgarian coastal town of Byala.

The strikes came a day after another ship caught fire and sank off the Romanian coast on Monday, killing two people. Ukraine blamed Russia for the drone attack.

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Middle East oil exports surpass pre-war levels despite tensions, data shows | Oil and Gas News

IRGC commander says oil flows through US-supervised route in Hormuz are ‘negligible’.

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have risen above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the last week of September, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed.

However, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Ali Fadavi said in a televised interview on Sunday night that only three to four million barrels of oil per day (bpd) are now moving through the route, dismissing the amount as “negligible” when compared with pre-war traffic.

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Fadavi said, for the first time, no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or even the northern Indian Ocean and US warships are “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.

Kpler data showed crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to 19.5-22.5 million bpd.

Around that time, Iran claimed success in attacking ships – including US Navy vessels – near the Strait of Hormuz, saying the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships further from the Iranian coast.

Before the US-Israel war on Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.

According to Kpler data, the overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30.

On October 1, the seven-day moving average for crude exports was at 18.5 million bpd. This includes transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February.

The figures exclude any vessels that might have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders turned off to avoid detection.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or in the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

On Sunday, Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepts Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.

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U.S. shipping 9,000 troops to Mideast as Trump weighs strikes on Iran

Konstantin Toropin and Michelle L. Price

The U.S. military is dispatching roughly 9,000 troops aboard a group of ships to the Middle East, a U.S. official said Thursday. The bolstering of the American military presence comes as President Trump warned anew that new strikes against Iran could be on the horizon.

He also said early indications suggest that Iran is linked to the co-pilot who stabbed his captain and tried to crash an Israel-bound flight on Wednesday.

In an exchange with reporters at the White House, Trump raised the connection when asked by a reporter if there were any links between the pilot behind the attack and Tehran.

“I would say the answer, based on what I’m hearing, is ‘yes,’ but we’re working on it right now,” Trump said, without offering details.

Trump also warned that if the link is established to Iran, the United States would retaliate.

“Oh they’ll be hit, very hard, don’t worry,” Trump said. “You just ask them. They know what happened. They’ll be hit very hard.”

Meanwhile, the group of ships now en route to the Middle East together carry over 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines.

It includes the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, which recently deployed with the cruiser USS Chosin, and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, which includes the USS John P. Murtha and USS Anchorage amphibious landing ships.

It could mean that three carriers are in the region as early as the end of October, according to the U.S. official who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military operations.

Given the personnel already in place in the Middle East, the move would bring the U.S. naval presence to an unusually high number of more than 20,000 sailors and Marines and hundreds of aircraft. The Navy previously had three carrier strike groups in the Middle East in April for the first time since 2003.

The carriers USS George H.W. Bush and the USS George Washington are in the region now, along with the USS Boxer amphibious readiness group. The Washington is typically deployed to Pacific Ocean but it was moved to the Middle East to relieve the USS Abraham Lincoln, whose arduous deployment resulted in the crew being at sea for more than 260 days straight.

Trump, in a Time magazine interview published Thursday, also raised the prospects of new strikes, saying it is “possible” that he will ramp up bombing in Iran after the Nov. 3 elections in the United States.

When pressed, Trump said he could not go further in detailing his strategy.

“I can’t tell you that because look, you know, you’re asking, where are you going to bomb?” Trump said.

He said in the interview, conducted Monday, that he rejected the latest ceasefire proposal from Iran because “things that I wouldn’t have approved a year ago I wouldn’t have today.”

Trump cited as an example an offer from Iran to “open up” the Strait of Hormuz, the key energy shipping corridor, but said the overall proposal was “not good enough.”

Members of the military listen to the Defense secretary.

Members of the military listen as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gives a State of the Force address at Marine Corps Base Quantico.

(Alex Wong / Getty Images)

Asked if the increasingly unpopular war would threaten Republican Party chances in November, Trump at first responded, “It’s possible.” But then he added, “It should help, because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

The president said “100% of the people” oppose Iran having nuclear attack capabilities “including worldwide.”

“So, when you say it that way, It would help,” Trump added. “If you don’t say that, it could hurt.”

Toropin and Price write for the Associated Press. AP writers Seung Min Kim, Will Weissert and Aamer Madhani contributed to this report.

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‘Economic war’: Is Iran losing its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz? | US-Israel war on Iran News

As Iran and the United States work with mediators to end seven months of hostilities, the reality in the Strait of Hormuz is shifting in ways that could prove to be a game-changer in ongoing negotiations.

According to the latest data from tanker-tracker websites, traffic through the key waterway has been steadily increasing, with some estimates putting oil and petroleum flow through the Strait of Hormuz at nearly 80 percent of what it was before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28.

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This could dent Iran’s leverage in reaching a favourable deal for itself in its attempts to end the fighting, which has seriously hampered its already heavily sanctioned economy, amid the US blockade of Iranian ships and ports.

Despite that, experts believe it would be a mistake to think normality in the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, or that Iran will fold easily despite growing economic hardship.

“The fact that oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz is encouraging, but flows are not yet regarded as completely secure or guaranteed, particularly while the wider conflict remains unresolved,” Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, told Al Jazeera.

Moreover, oil prices remain high globally, including in the US, where President Donald Trump faces a crucial midterm election that could see his party swept away in both houses of Congress.

Tanker insurance costs also remain elevated and energy flows through Hormuz are still far from secure, suggesting Iran’s leverage may be weakening rather than disappearing.

Oil flows through Hormuz recovering

The latest data from commodity analytics firm Kpler points to a significant recovery in oil exports from the Middle East.

Crude exports reached an estimated 16.328 million barrels per day (bpd) in September – their highest level since the war began in late February, the firm reported this week.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz itself were expected to reach about 9.719 million bpd during the month. Saudi Arabia has driven much of the increase, with its exports rebounding from 2.446 million bpd in August to about 5.4 million bpd in September.

Kpler said Middle East crude exports have recovered to just under 80 percent of their pre-war level. But the figures remain about 3.2 million bpd below the 19.513 million bpd exported in February.

The data also does not include ships crossing Hormuz with their tracking systems switched off, meaning actual traffic could be higher.

Prior to the war, an estimated 120-140 vessels crossed through the waterway daily, roughly half of them oil tankers moving approximately 20 million barrels per day. At the height of the fighting, traffic through the waterway collapsed to as few as two tankers a day after Iran in effect closed the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks.

interactive - Where have ships been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz - sep 8, 2026-1788867749

Is Iran losing leverage?

The rebound in oil flow presents a challenge for Tehran. Iran has sought to use its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints – as leverage against Washington’s military and economic pressure.

But if large volumes of oil can continue moving through the strait while Iran itself remains under a US naval blockade, Tehran’s bargaining power could diminish.

Iran, however, rejects any assessment that its control over the strait is slipping.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi on Tuesday said the ability of vessels to transit the waterway with US assistance did not mean Hormuz had returned to normal.

Oil prices are another indication that Iran has not lost all of its leverage.

Villagers stand near plastic containers at a fuel station to fill their water pumps, as India faces rising oil prices, in Halvad, Gujarat, India
Villagers stand near plastic containers at a fuel station to fill their water pumps, as India faces rising oil prices, in Halvad, Gujarat, India [File: Amit Dave/Reuters]

Brent crude fell 2.6 percent to $102.59 a barrel on Tuesday as traders focused on recovering Middle East exports. But it was still heading for a roughly 13 percent gain in September.

Chris Beauchamp, an analyst at IG, said markets were beginning to incorporate evidence of recovering flows but remained wary about how durable that recovery would be.

“It takes time for evidence to filter through to markets,” Beauchamp said. “Oil prices came off yesterday as the narrative began to take hold, and should continue to fall.”

But he said concerns persisted over whether the US protection system could withstand a renewed barrage of Iranian missiles and drones.

Streeter of Wealth Club said the market still had a geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices, despite the improving flows.

“Insurance costs for tankers also remain elevated because of the perceived risks of operating in the region, adding to the cost of transporting crude even as more ships make it through the waterway,” she said.

Moreover, Streeter warned that crude figures tell only part of the story. Flows of refined fuels, particularly diesel and gasoline, remain constrained, while damage to infrastructure has placed additional pressure on energy supply chains, she added.

There is another vulnerability, the investment strategist pointed out. Countries including the US have relied heavily on strategic oil reserves to cushion the impact of the disruption and help contain prices.

“With those stockpiles now significantly depleted, there is a thinner buffer if there is another disruption, which is helping to keep a floor under crude prices,” Streeter added.

‘Economic war’ on Iran

There is little doubt that economic pressure on Iran is intensifying, potentially increasing Tehran’s incentive to reach an agreement.

Official data from the Statistical Center of Iran earlier this month showed gross domestic product (GDP) contracting 10.1 percent year on year between March 21 and June 20, while the crucial oil and gas sector shrank 26.4 percent.

Iran has also been battling high inflation and a plunging currency as the US blockade constrains oil exports and foreign currency earnings.

Twelve-month average inflation reached 69.9 percent earlier in September, while the rial had fallen beyond 2.2 million to the US dollar in early September.

epa13272285 People shop at Tajrish Bazaar in northern Tehran, Iran, 30 September 2026. Iran is facing an economic crisis as the conflict between the US and Iran continues. EPA/ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH RESTRICTIONS: NO Access Israel Media/Persian Language TV Stations Outside Iran/Strictly No Access BBC Persian/VOA Persian/Manoto TV/Iran International TV. (As mandated by Iran's Directorate General for Foreign Media) --
People shop at Tajrish Bazaar in northern Tehran, Iran [File: Abedin Taherkenareh/EPA]

In August, the US announced a fresh economic pressure campaign against Iran, promising to target Tehran’s financial interests across the world.

Mohammad Eslami, a research fellow at the University of Tehran, told Al Jazeera that Iran was facing an “economic war” alongside the military conflict.

“There is a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which affects Iran’s revenues from oil exports and other products such as petrochemicals, which are important to Iran’s economy,” Eslami said. “As a result, Iran’s dollar revenues have been affected by the blockade.”

But he cautioned against judging Iran’s economy solely through the value of its currency.

“The exchange rate is a very important indicator, but it is not the only measure for explaining what is happening or the difficulties and challenges facing Iran’s economy,” Eslami said, adding that Iran has faced US economic pressure for “five decades”.

Can a deal be reached?

Despite the military and economic pressure, negotiations have not collapsed.

At the United Nations General Assembly last week, Tehran and Washington engaged in three hours of indirect talks, as US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

President Trump later described the encounter as “very good” and “very productive.”

Iran also proposed a seven-day roadmap under which the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened and normal maritime traffic restored if Washington meets Tehran’s conditions, a plan Trump categorically rejected.

Those conditions included ending the naval blockade on Iran, easing sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian funds.

However, on Wednesday, Reuters news agency reported that Araghchi had received US feedback on the proposal through Qatari mediators.

An official briefed on the talks said the main disagreement now centred on the sequencing of measures rather than the components of the plan.

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Somali pirates killed five crew members on hijacked tanker, officials say | Conflict News

The deaths appear to be the first at the hands of Somali pirates in more than a decade.

Pirates have killed five crew members on board a Palau-flagged oil tanker off the coast of Somalia before security forces rescued the ship, according to Somali authorities.

The deaths on the tanker, the MT Honour 25, were announced on Tuesday.

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They appear to be the first deaths at ⁠the hands of Somali pirates in more than a decade and come amid a resurgence of Somali piracy that experts have attributed in part to the effects of the United States and Israel’s war on Iran.

The MT Honour 25, which authorities said was carrying 18,500 barrels of oil, was seized by pirates off Somalia on April 21.

The Information Ministry of Puntland, a semiautonomous region of Somalia, said in a statement that a rescue mission had freed the ship and captured 16 suspected pirates.

“Before the operation began, the pirates on board the ship killed five of the crew,” the statement said. “Among those killed were three from Pakistan, one from Myanmar and one from India.”

Four other crew members, three Pakistanis and one Indian, were injured, it said.

In a post on social media, the Puntland Maritime Police Force said the vessel was “safe” and under the government’s control. It said efforts were continuing to find others involved in the hijacking.

The rescue follows another operation last week in which the maritime police freed the Sibu 1, a tanker sanctioned by the US that Somali pirates had hijacked in August.

But 28 of the 41 pirates arrested in that operation later escaped while being transferred to jail, and several Puntland security officials accused local police of complicity.

At least 15 attacks have been reported off Somalia since April, according to officials.

A previous wave of piracy, from 2008 to 2014, disrupted one of the world’s busiest shipping routes, cost the global economy billions of dollars and resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars in ransom payments.

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Saudi FM accuses Iran of ‘flagrant attacks’ and condemns Houthis at UNGA | Mohammed bin Salman

Saudi Arabia has used its address to the UN General Assembly to accuse Iran of flagrant attacks on civilian and economic targets across the region, while calling on the international community to condemn Houthi actions threatening Red Sea shipping.

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At least 41 die as boat capsizes in DRC’s Lake Tanganyika | Shipping News

About 100 people, as well as cargo, were reportedly on board the vessel when it sank on Lake Tanganyika.

At least 41 people have died, and 49 others have been rescued, after a boat capsized on Lake Tanganyika in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

Norris Mulongoyi, the provincial transport minister for DRC’s Tanganyika province, told The Associated Press news agency that search operations were under way to locate the remaining passengers.

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The boat was reportedly carrying about 100 people and cargo when it capsized near the Congolese village of Mapera.

The vessel was travelling from the port of Kigoma in Tanzania to the city of Kalemie in DRC when it sank on Thursday.

A survivor identified as Annie Moyoni told Radio Okapi, a UN-backed Congolese broadcaster, that passengers were awakened at about 1am and found the boat tilting to one side.

It is unclear what caused the vessel to capsize, but hundreds of people have been killed in boat disasters in the DRC in recent years, according to the AP. Vessels are often overloaded and lack life jackets.

For many in the DRC, travelling by boat is the cheapest and most affordable way to get around. The country is one of the poorest in the world and lacks sufficient infrastructure for its more than 100 million people.

The sinking was the second loss of a Congolese vessel on the Kigoma-Kalemie route in less than a month.

On August 28, the Congolese vessel MV Pacifique caught fire and exploded at the port of Kigoma while loading fuel, according to Radio Okapi.

Six crew members were killed, and a seventh was reported missing, Radio Okapi said, citing port authorities. The vessel operated between Kigoma and Kalemie and was used to transport fuel.

At least 20 people also died when a wooden boat carrying students returning from state exams sank in central DRC in July.

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By the Numbers: Key Trends Driving Private Lending, Finance Talent, and Global Shipping

Key data points tracking shifts in private credit, finance talent, and global shipping costs.

This article appears in the September 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine.

Each month, Global Finance readers can look forward to our “By the Numbers” feature: A spotlight with key industry metrics that highlight a market in transition. This edition brings you three charts: a break down the numbers driving strategic moves across private lending, corporate talent, and global trade.

US Private Credit Lender Leaderboard for Q2 2026

Despite a significant drop in deal volume from the previous quarter, driven by higher financing costs, interest-rate uncertainty, and a possible AI-driven market correction, direct lenders are still finding opportunities.

Audax led the field by a wide margin, closing 62 deals in the second quarter — 16 more than second-place TPG Twin Brook (46) and 19 ahead of MidCap Financial (43), according to 9fin data. That gap at the top suggests deal flow is concentrating among a handful of active lenders even as overall volume contracts.

Audax led the field by a wide margin, closing 62 deals in the second quarter — 16 more than second-place TPG Twin Brook (46) and 19 ahead of MidCap Financial (43), according to 9fin data. That gap at the top suggests deal flow is concentrating among a handful of active lenders even as overall volume contracts.

Apollo (37), Churchill (36) and Barings (34) formed a tightly bunched second tier, each within three deals of the next. Apogem (32), Blackstone (30), Monroe (27) and Jefferies Credit Partners (25) rounded out the top 10.

Smaller, middle-market-focused shops like Audax and Twin Brook outpaced Blackstone this quarter despite its scale, making the firm’s eighth-place finish notable. Lenders with flexible mandates—rather than the biggest balance sheets—will likely keep writing checks amid higher financing costs and rate uncertainty.


The Finance Workforce Evolution 2024 – 2030

Gartner projects traditional finance talent will shrink to 20% of the workforce, while dedicated digital finance talent grows to another 20% — and 60% of the workforce will be made up of "nondedicated" digital finance talent, employees who blend finance expertise with data, automation and technology skills rather than fitting neatly into either camp.
Source: Gartner

Gartner reports that traditional talent still overwhelmingly staff today’s finance function, with 85% holding conventional backgrounds and just 15% dedicated to digital skills. That balance will flip within four years.

Gartner projects traditional finance talent will shrink to 20% of the workforce. Dedicated digital finance talent will likely grow to another 20% — and 60% of the workforce will be made up of “nondedicated” digital finance talent, employees who blend finance expertise with data, automation and technology skills rather than fitting neatly into either camp.

The shift means the finance department of 2030 will look less like a roomful of accountants and more like a hybrid team built around technology fluency, with only one in five employees carrying a purely traditional finance profile.


Dry Bulk Shipping Market Growth

Increased geopolitical risk, fuel costs, insurance premiums, and operating expenses are fueling a steady growth in shipping costs for the foreseeable future.

Increased geopolitical risk, fuel costs, insurance premiums, and operating expenses are fueling a steady growth in shipping costs for the foreseeable future

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Why are the Houthis fighting for Yemen’s Kahboub Mountains? | Houthis News

The Houthis are attempting to push into the Kahboub Mountains after seizing much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast in a lightning offensive this month – an advance that experts say could dramatically shift the balance of power in the country’s war if successful.

The renewed fighting in recent months with forces aligned with Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government has brought an end to the relative calm that had largely held since 2022. In recent days, the conflict has moved into the rugged highlands overlooking the approaches to Bab al-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

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The strait connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and its importance is only growing as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted by the Houthis’ main ally: Iran.

Experts said taking the high ground would help the Houthis defend the newly captured coastline and make it far harder for government forces to push them back. While the mountains may not necessarily be used as a launchpad for attacks on ships, controlling them would provide defensive depth and cover for Houthi positions closer to the coast, making missile and drone operations in the Red Sea easier to sustain and harder to disrupt.

The Houthis have said they do not intend to target United States shipping and attacks would be limited to vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. But the group has repeatedly attacked ships in the Red Sea in previous years, including vessels with no clear connection to its stated targets.

The Houthi advance has taken on added urgency after The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump came close to ordering air attacks against the Houthis on Sunday, only to call them off at the last minute. Britain, meanwhile, said it will support Saudi Arabia with defensive refuelling.

Why is Kahboub strategically important?

Kahboub, a mountainous region spanning parts of the Lahj and Taiz governorates in southern Yemen, derives much of its strategic importance from its proximity to Bab al-Mandeb. Some of its heights lie about 40km (25 miles) from the waterway, providing commanding views across a stretch of the Red Sea, through which a significant share of global maritime trade and millions of barrels of oil pass each day.

While that vantage point has considerable military value, experts said the mountains are unlikely to serve directly as a launchpad for attacks in the Red Sea. Their more immediate importance for the Houthis lies in securing the territory the group has already captured.

“The mountains are the natural wall that protects the Houthis’ rear on the coast. Controlling them would cut the coast off from the government-held south and place direct pressure on Lahj and, in the longer term, Aden,” Faozi Al-Goidi, a visiting fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.

Securing their rear would help the Houthis prevent government forces from attacking their coastal positions from behind or severing the routes connecting their newly captured territory. Until the high ground is secured, Houthi forces stationed along the Red Sea remain vulnerable to attacks from government-held areas to the south and east.

Capturing the elevated positions, therefore, would make Kahboub less important as a potential launchpad for maritime attacks than as a defensive shield for the Houthis’ military gains along the coast.

Ewa K Strzelecka, a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics, told Al Jazeera that controlling the coastline, Mayyun Island and the neighbouring highlands would give the Houthis “strategic resilience”.

INTERACTIVE- Yemen Kahboub Mountain bab al-mandeb map Red Sea Houthi-1790058661
(Al Jazeera)

“Holding the coastline, Mayyun and the adjacent highlands together would give the Houthis a much deeper and more defensible position around one of the world’s principal maritime chokepoints,” she said.

Those positions would allow the Houthis to move fighters, weapons and supplies along the coast with less risk of their routes being severed from behind.

“From the high ground, the Houthis could monitor movements along the coast, around Mayyun Island and towards the chokepoint while protecting missile, drone and potentially unmanned-boat infrastructure positioned farther inland,” Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

The battle is already proving slower than the Houthis’ rapid advance across the coastal plains. Footage circulated on X by the Taiz Military Axis Command’s media centre appears to show intense fighting between forces aligned with the Yemeni government, local fighters and the Houthis on mountain fronts. The footage could not be independently verified by Al Jazeera.

“This is not an easy battle,” said Mohammed al-Basha, an analyst and a former spokesperson for Yemen’s embassy in Washington. “The fighting is taking place across some of Yemen’s most unforgiving terrain where control of a single hilltop or mountain peak can come at a heavy cost.”

Could the Houthis isolate Taiz by controlling Kahboub?

Control of Kahboub could also place greater pressure on Taiz, a symbolically and strategically important city, as the Taiz governorate forms a bridge between the Houthi-held north and the government-held south and the Red Sea coast. Whoever controls it gains the upper hand in the movement of weapons and supplies between the interior and the southern port city of Aden. Losing it, therefore, could deal a serious blow to the government.

Murad Al-Arefi, an editor at the Sana’a Center, told Al Jazeera that taking Kahboub would “increase pressure on the southern and western approaches to Taiz” although he cautioned that it should not yet be seen as evidence of a broader attempt to encircle the city.

The immediate threat to the Taiz-Aden connection is less direct because Kahboub does not itself sit across the route.  “What matters is whether the Houthis can subsequently push farther east through Al-Wazi’iyah and towards the Al-Turbah-Lahj axis, which would place much greater pressure on the southern approaches to Taiz and potentially weaken its connection with Aden,” Strzelecka said.

A further advance, therefore, could leave government forces defending several mountain fronts simultaneously while relying on fewer secure routes to move troops, weapons and supplies, leaving Taiz increasingly exposed. One of Yemen’s largest population centres, Taiz became an important centre of resistance to the Houthis after they seized Sanaa in 2014, and was besieged by the rebel group for years. A major Houthi breakthrough there, therefore, would carry symbolic significance far beyond the territory captured.

What could it mean for Red Sea shipping?

Officially, the Houthis have said their current restrictions in Bab al-Mandeb would apply only to Saudi-linked shipping.

But during its previous Red Sea campaign, the group struck or endangered ships with no clear connection to Israel – their purported target during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza – raising questions about how narrowly any new restrictions would be applied. Seizing the Kahboub Mountains would further strengthen the Houthis’ position by helping them secure the coastline overlooking Bab al-Mandeb and making it harder for their opponents to push them back.

Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera that the offensive showed the Houthis using their momentum to capture more territory, weaken their opponents and “dominate Yemen further”.

“This is the Houthis trying to seize more ground and diminish the capacity of their enemies while increasing their strategic ability to close Bab al-Mandeb,” Mabon said.

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G7 foreign ministers demand Houthis halt strikes on Saudi Arabia | Conflict News

Ministers demand an end to maritime shipping attacks and urge Iran to stop arming the Yemeni group.

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations have condemned what they called “unacceptable continued strikes” by Yemen’s Houthis against Saudi Arabia.

The ministers issued the statement on Monday following an informal meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

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“We condemn in the strongest terms the unacceptable continued strikes carried out by the Houthis in Yemen and against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” the ministers of the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States said in the statement.

The ministers urged the Houthis “to immediately cease all military actions, all threats and attacks against civilian shipping, and to return to the political process in good faith”.

They also called on Iran to stop arming and supporting the group, saying Tehran is in violation of past UN Security Council resolutions. They added that Iran’s backing of the Houthis constituted a dangerous pattern of escalation that risked undermining international trade and creating global instability.

The latest escalation in the Arab region’s most impoverished nation follows a period of relative calm that had largely held since the UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022 between the Iran-aligned group and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

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Italy to deploy warships to protect shipping through Bab al-Mandeb | Global Energy Crisis News

Italy’s defence minister warns of severe economic fallout if Bab al-Mandeb becomes impassable, bypassing EU delays.

Italy will deploy warships to ensure safe passage for its commercial vessels through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said, adding that Rome would not wait for a joint decision from the European Union.

“We have the capabilities to protect the passage,” Crosetto said, warning that if the waterway became impassable, the economic consequences would be severe.

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The Italian defence minister said that Rome “must not allow bureaucratic delays in decision-making to exacerbate an already complex situation”.

Bab al-Mandeb links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, forming one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors between Europe and Asia and a critical route for oil, gas and container traffic heading to and from the Suez Canal.

Roughly 12 to 15 percent of global trade has historically passed through the narrow waterway, which separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea on the African side and is only about 30km (19 miles) wide at its narrowest point.

The strait’s importance has grown sharply since Iran effectively seized control of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year amid its war with the United States and Israel, choking off the world’s most important oil chokepoint and pushing much of the Gulf’s crude exports towards alternative routes.

Saudi Arabia, in particular, has increasingly relied on pipelines and Red Sea shipping to bypass Hormuz altogether, making the Bab al-Mandeb strait one of the last major arteries still open to Gulf oil reaching global markets.

Control of the strait has been contested for years, as Yemen’s government, Houthi rebels and, at times, forces in the region have held stretches of its coastline at different points since the war in Yemen began in 2015.

The significance of the strait has been hit dramatically in the past few weeks, when the Iran-backed Houthi movement launched a rapid offensive that brought the entirety of Yemen’s western Red Sea coast under its control, including several strategically located islands.

The advance has given the Houthis effectively unrestricted access to the waterway, a development seen as a major setback for international shipping, given the group’s history of attacking vessels it associates with the US or its allies in the region.

The US and the European Union have already carried out military operations aimed at better protecting merchant ships from Houthi attacks in the area, though those efforts have struggled to fully secure the route as fighting in Yemen has escalated.

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