security

The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, six frigates, three light warships, and approximately thirty fighter jets and support aircraft have entered the Middle East by order of Donald Trump who, by repeatedly touting the slogan “I have ended six/seven/eight wars,” has considered (and continues to consider) himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. What objective do all these tensions that the U.S. administration has generated in the region actually pursue? The weakening of Iran, or the overthrow of the incumbent government? Whatever his and his administration’s aim may be, it appears that—within the cost–benefit calculations of his trader’s mindset—he has yet to arrive at a definitive conclusion as to what kind of blow, and at what scale, could deliver the desired outcome. His recent military posturing around Iran and his increasingly threatening rhetoric against the Islamic Republic have placed him in a no-win situation whose end few can predict.

Why a no-win situation for Trump?

First Strike Doubt: Trump and the constellation of officials currently in the White House—who, notably, are far from unified or aligned on how to approach Iran—have reached no certainty regarding the effectiveness of a first strike against Iran or the likelihood of achieving their desired results. It is evident to all that the Islamic Republic of Iran is neither Venezuela, nor Libya, nor Syria, nor Afghanistan, nor Iraq, nor anything akin to the historical cases in which the United States has intervened militarily in the name of democracy verbally and in pursuit of its own interests operationally. This very reality has, thus far, prevented Trump from issuing the order to “open fire” on Iran up to now.

On the other side, there is no sign of the flexibility or concession sought by the United States in the behavior or rhetoric of Iranian officials—a fact acknowledged by American officials themselves. This indicates that pressure, intimidation, and threats have thus far yielded no results. The reason is clear: the Islamic Republic views any potential confrontation as an existential war and is unwilling to grant any concessions. Trump, however—who seeks to manufacture achievements out of even the smallest events and whose penchant for exaggeration is among his defining traits—perceives such circumstances as detrimental to his personal prestige and standing.

Iran’s Resilience: The experience of the Israeli attack and the hybrid war launched against Iran in June 2025, with direct assistance from the United States and indirect support from so many others, demonstrated that the instability they sought within the governing structure of the Islamic Republic and even the internal social fragmentation and rifts that had been cultivated for years through various media tools did not materialize. Despite the blows inflicted on Iran, none of the long-term strategic objectives of the United States and Israel were achieved. Likewise, the unrest and riots of January 8 and 9, despite the violence and damage they caused to the public and the state, were ultimately brought under control and culminated in a multi-million-person rally on January 12 condemning the unrest and supporting the central government of the Islamic Republic.

High costs and Persian Gulf Worries: Operationalizing a military threat would impose heavy costs on the United States and its allies. The Islamic Republic has explicitly declared that any military action against its territory, at any scale, would be regarded as all-out war, and that, consequently, the entire region—as well as U.S. interests wherever they may be—would fall within range of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. This serious warning has also prompted Persian Gulf states to mobilize their capacities to dissuade Trump from attacking Iran. The strikes on U.S. bases at Ayn al-Asad and Al-Udeid entrenched the perception that the Islamic Republic does not shy away from responding to foreign aggression, even if large segments of the world regard the attacking state as a “superpower.”

Global Energy Risks: The ignition of war in the Persian Gulf would amount to a grave threat to global energy supply routes. Roughly 30 percent of the world’s crude oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas are supplied by Persian Gulf countries, and 20–25 percent of global crude oil transits the Strait of Hormuz. Any aggressive action by the United States would jeopardize the security of one-fifth of the world’s fuel and profoundly affect the global economy.

Although the U.S. National Security Strategy does not place the Middle East among America’s top strategic priorities, the same document states that: “We (the United States) want to prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East, its oil and gas supplies, and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the forever wars”, which shows Persian Gulf oil is still of high importance for Washington.

Tilting Power Balance: In addition, heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf would endanger China’s economic interests, and any large-scale military confrontation would likely lead to a more pronounced military-security presence by Russia and China in the Gulf—tilting the balance in favor of America’s rivals.

And finally?

The embers beneath the region’s ashes today could be ignited by the slightest breeze, engulfing a vast area. Israel, while likely the first target of Iran’s retaliatory response in the event of a U.S. attack, is nevertheless eager to initiate confrontation based on the calculation that a war waged with the full might of the United States could ultimately erode the very existence of the Islamic Republic or weaken it to the point of capitulation. In this context, it is not far-fetched to suggest that the disclosure of new documents and details concerning Trump’s links to the notorious Epstein case and his mysterious island may have been driven by the Mossad, as such revelations could compel the U.S. president to undertake an irrational action to divert attention elsewhere.

Today, Trump is acting more than ever in contradiction to his own professed principles—from trampling on his signature MAGA slogan and morphing it into MIGA (Make Israel Great Again), to undermining his administration’s efforts to reduce unnecessary international expenditures; from his paradoxical pride in having ended “eight wars” to the strategy of off-shore balancing the Middle East. Should a war of this magnitude and consequence erupt, no country involved—whether through direct action or geographic proximity—would be spared its consequences. Regarding these circumstances, it appears that the only desirable scenario for Trump, the region, and the world at large is the opening of a genuine dialogue, free from the shadow of threats, intimidation, and American bullying.

China reacted angrily to the CIA’s public campaign, launched in February 2026, to recruit spies from within the ranks of the Chinese military, vowing to take “all necessary measures” to protect its national security. The Chinese response to the “recruitment video” included an official warning: Foreign Ministry spokesperson “Lin Jian” stated that the attempts by forces hostile to China “will not succeed,” emphasizing that Beijing would resolutely counter foreign infiltration and sabotage operations. In addition to Beijing’s accusation that the United States engaged in blatant political provocation, the Chinese Embassy in Washington described the American recruitment video targeting Chinese military personnel as a “blatant political provocation” and an explicit admission by the United States of its attempts to steal other countries’ secrets. This was especially true given the nature of the video, released by the CIA, which featured Mandarin Chinese and targeted “disillusioned” Chinese military officers, exploiting corruption within the Chinese army and recent purges within the Chinese military leadership. While other foreign intelligence agencies typically maintain contact with sources and agents within both friendly and hostile militaries, observers noted that the 95-second CIA video was “unusually explicit,” as described by Newsweek magazine. This angered China, prompting it to lodge a formal protest through the Chinese Embassy in Washington.

To counter this American intelligence campaign, official Chinese measures to contain Western and American intelligence intensified. Beijing pursued a multi-pronged strategy to tighten the noose on espionage activities, including expanding the Anti-Espionage Law: China amended its laws to broaden the definition of “espionage” to include any data or documents that threaten national security, granting authorities greater powers to search and access electronic devices. (Increasing Public Awareness and “Reporting Hotlines”): The Chinese Ministry of State Security, which acts as China’s intelligence agency, encouraged citizens to report suspicious activities through substantial financial rewards and released educational videos on how to detect “foreign spies” who might be disguised as researchers or diplomats. (Chinese Technological Counter-Response): China used artificial intelligence and simulation tools to mock American recruitment videos, releasing videos that mimicked the same style to highlight “Wall Street corruption” and internal American crises. With (China’s purge of sensitive leaders): Beijing launched a widespread purge within the People’s Liberation Army, targeting high-ranking generals such as “Zhang Youxia” on charges of corruption and leaking sensitive information. With China’s expansion in drafting and enacting counter-sanctions laws: In March 2025, China activated new regulations for its Foreign Counter-Sanctions Law, allowing it to freeze assets and impose visa bans on any foreign individuals or entities that interfere in its internal affairs or threaten its security interests.

This confrontation comes at a time when reports indicate that the CIA is seeking to rebuild its human network in China after most of it was dismantled between 2010 and 2012. China has begun intensifying its internal security measures to counter Western espionage, particularly American espionage, by updating its anti-espionage laws, strengthening cybersecurity, and raising public awareness, targeting the activities of the CIA and Mossad. These efforts include strict data controls, protecting sensitive technology, dismantling spy recruitment networks, and considering Western espionage a direct security threat. Among the most prominent Chinese measures to contain Western and American intelligence activities are the following (updating anti-espionage laws): China has broadened the definition of espionage in its laws to include any documents, data, or materials related to national security, granting authorities wider powers to search and investigate suspects. (Strengthening cybersecurity): Beijing is conducting intensive campaigns to secure sensitive networks and data and is working to protect its digital infrastructure from infiltration, especially after reports indicating widespread cyber operations by Western actors. This is in addition to (Chinese security awareness campaigns): The Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS) is urging citizens to report any suspicious activities, considering counter-espionage a societal responsibility. It has also published warnings about methods used to recruit spies. Along with Chinese authorities tightening control over foreigners and foreign companies in China, control has been intensified over foreign consultancies and companies that could be used as cover for intelligence activities, with a focus on uncovering foreign spies, whether affiliated with the CIA or any other foreign agency. Along with China’s emphasis on protecting technology and scientific research: Here, Beijing is taking strict measures to protect its technological and industrial secrets from theft, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence and computing, to prevent their exploitation to advance the interests of foreign countries.

This Chinese escalation comes at a time when US intelligence reports have described China as the “greatest overall military and security threat” to the interests of the United States and its allies, further intensifying the intelligence conflict between the two sides. Therefore, China began taking strict and decisive measures to contain Western and American intelligence activities within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). These measures include strengthening information security through the Information Support Force, enforcing anti-espionage laws, and increasing internal oversight to ensure the protection of national security and development interests from infiltration and sabotage. The most prominent measures include tightening digital surveillance by enhancing capabilities in electronic espionage, signals intelligence, and cybersecurity to counter any breaches; strengthening internal security by tightening security measures around personnel and sensitive data to prevent recruitment or leaks; and activating the role of the Ministry of State Security domestically. The Chinese intelligence ministry, “MSS,” has become highly effective in combating foreign espionage, particularly American espionage, and in maintaining political security within military and civilian institutions. The Chinese authorities also established the Information Support Force: this force was created to promote the development and implementation of secure network information systems, thereby enhancing the army’s ability to repel infiltrations. With China’s keenness to modernize its anti-espionage laws, it has taken strict measures against infiltration and sabotage activities, pledging to protect China’s national security.

Based on the preceding analysis, we understand that these Chinese security measures are a response to intensive US intelligence efforts to recruit informants within the Chinese military, which has provoked Beijing’s ire and resentment. This is especially true given the sensitive timing for the Chinese military establishment, coming just weeks after another senior officer was implicated in President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign within the army. The video released by the CIA showing the recruitment and targeting of Chinese military personnel represents the latest episode in a US intelligence campaign targeting Chinese military personnel on social media. This campaign, which openly targets China, has been described by CIA Director “John Ratcliffe” as the agency’s top intelligence priority amidst what he called a generational competition with Beijing.

The routine of gently but skillfully pushing wooden canoes into the water body at the shores of Kainji Lake each dawn has been part of the lives of generations of fishermen in North-central Nigeria. 

The lake was not always calm – vigorously exhaling and flooding the banks, then intermittently receding – but was inevitably connected to the lives that many communities have held firmly to across Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states.

Today, that ancestral connection between the communities and the lake is evaporating rapidly. And it is not merely ecological. In some villages where government presence is absent, and terrorists have assumed authority, fishermen now wait for permission from non-state actors before casting their nets. In other areas within the Kainji region, they pay informal levies to armed groups operating from the forests. For decades, Nigeria’s national parks were imagined as spaces apart: buffers of nature against human pressure and political failure. Sambisa Forest shattered that illusion long ago when the Boko Haram terror group took control of it, transforming from a conservation zone into the most notorious symbol of jihadist insurgency in the country. Now, further west, a quieter but no less consequential transformation is unfolding.

The Kainji Lake National Park (KLNP), sprawling across three states and bordering Benin, has slipped from a wildlife sanctuary into a strategic corridor where poverty, climate stress, criminal enterprises, violence, jihadist ideology, and Sahelian militancy intersect.

A corridor

Security analysts increasingly describe Sambisa as a “fortress-base” model of insurgency: entrenched, ideological, territorially assertive. Kainji Lake fits a different and more elusive pattern—a “corridor-node” model.

Here, armed actors do not raise flags or announce governance structures. They pass through, networking, training, recruiting, and trading, before vanishing. The park links Nigeria’s troubled North West to the Middle Belt and, increasingly, to the destabilised Sahel. It connects Kebbi to Benin Republic’s Alibori and Atacora regions, Niger State to Niger Republic’s Tillabéri zone, and local grievances to transnational jihadist ambitions.

This distinction matters. Sambisa attracted relentless military pressure for more than a decade because it became a visible symbol of territorial breach. Kainji Lake did not. It appeared peripheral, quiet, manageable. In that absence of sustained attention, the park matured into something arguably more dangerous: a fluid connector for multiple armed actors rather than a single-group stronghold.

Communities along the lake, from Yauri and Ngaski in Kebbi to Borgu in Niger State and Kaiama in Kwara, depend on a fragile interweaving of fishing, floodplain farming, pastoralism, and cross-border trade. Fishing sustains thousands of households. Smoked and dried fish move through informal networks to Ilorin, Ibadan, southern Niger, and beyond. Seasonal farming follows the lake’s unpredictable pulse: millet, sorghum, maize, rice, and cowpea are cultivated on land that appears and disappears with the water’s rise and fall.

Pastoralism runs through it all. Herders move cattle along routes that long predate colonial borders, grazing across Nigeria, Benin Republic, and Niger Republic as if the lines on maps were suggestions rather than laws. Weekly markets in Bagudo, Wawa, Babana, Kaiama, and Borgu draw traders from Benin’s north and Niger’s Tillabéri. Grain, livestock, fuel, kola nuts, dried fish, and cloth circulate through these hubs. Some of it is smuggling.

These networks matter because armed groups do not need to invent new pathways. They insert themselves into existing ones. The same tracks used by herders and traders now carry militants, arms couriers, recruiters, and ideological emissaries. 

Climate stress as an accelerant

Climate change has exacerbated existing security vulnerabilities around Kainji Lake. 

Erratic rainfall patterns and fluctuating water levels have made fishing yields unpredictable. Floodplains that once reliably supported seasonal farming now vanish early or arrive late. Pasture availability shifts without warning, intensifying competition between herders and farmers. Each shock further compresses livelihoods, forcing households to adapt through debt, migration, or risk-taking.

In this environment, armed groups offer something deceptively valuable: predictability. Access to grazing land. Protection from rivals. Permission to fish or farm. Even informal dispute resolution. Where the state provides uncertainty – sporadic enforcement, unclear rules, delayed response – armed actors provide immediate answers, enforced by violence if necessary.

Climate stress, in this sense, is not just an environmental issue but a governance crisis multiplier. 

Fieldwork conducted by HumAngle across several local government areas in Kebbi, Niger, and Kwara states identified at least five active extremist factions operating within and around the park. These include the Mahmudawa (Mahmuda faction), Lakurawa, elements of Ansaru and Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) led by Sadiku and Umar Taraba, and a newly emerged cell linked to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin. 

The groups do not operate in isolation. Many originate from northwest Nigeria and southern Niger, with local cover, as they undertake terror attacks in distant locations and return to their various hideouts within the region. What has emerged is a hybrid threat ecosystem where ideology, criminality, climate stress, and grievance reinforce one another.

Brokers, enforcers, and ideologues

The Mahmudawa illustrate the new logic of this ecosystem. Despite sustained air and ground operations by the Federal Government between September and December 2025, the group remains influential. Fragmented into smaller camps, some closer to the Benin border, they act as brokers linking criminal networks of jihadist actors. They facilitate training, arms movement, ransom negotiations and sanctuary for fighters arriving from outside the region.

Official claims regarding the arrest of their leader, Malam Mahmuda, remain unconfirmed in border communities, where continued attacks and coordinated leadership are still attributed to the group.

If the Mahmudawa are brokers, the Lakurawa are enforcers. With an estimated 300 fighters, they have become one of the most active jihadist–terrorist hybrids affecting Kebbi’s border communities. Operating from within and around KLNP, they routinely launch incursions into Bagudo and Suru LGAs, combining attacks on military targets with ideological messaging aimed at delegitimising the Nigerian state.

Their leadership shows signs of Sahelian exposure. Their fighters are drawn from local nomadic tribal networks and northwest terrorist pools. Kebbi, long considered peripheral, is now firmly part of the frontline.

The relocation of Sadiku and Umar Taraba, both veteran jihadist operatives, to the Kainji axis in 2024 marked a shift. Their presence injected technical expertise into a space previously dominated by loosely organised armed groups.

IED knowledge, structured training, and a sharper focus on high-value targets followed. Collaboration with criminal terrorist groups deepened. The abduction of foreign nationals near Bode Sa’adu illustrated this fusion starkly: JAS elements, Mahmudawa fighters, and allied terrorists executing a single operation where ideology and profit were indistinguishable.

JNIM’s shadow on the lake

The most alarming development emerged in late November 2025: the appearance of a group believed to be affiliated with JNIM along the Kebbi–Benin border corridor.

Witnesses describe predominantly foreign fighters, many believed to be Tuareg, moving at night in disciplined formations, wearing military-style uniforms with turbans on their heads, and engaging communities with a calculated restraint unfamiliar to local armed groups. So far, they have avoided major attacks.

That restraint is likely strategic.

Their presence suggests Kainji Lake could become a staging ground for Sahelian expansion into northwestern Nigeria — a shift that would fundamentally alter the region’s security calculus. Unlike local groups, JNIM brings external financing, battlefield experience, and a long-term vision.

Communities adapting under pressure

Communities in the lake basin are not passive observers. They are recalibrating in real time. Some negotiate access quietly to avoid displacement. Others maintain layered loyalties, sharing information selectively as a survival strategy. Vigilante groups that once patrolled forest edges retreat under sustained pressure. Traditional rulers face coercion or marginalisation. In certain settlements, schools and community buildings are repurposed by armed actors for operational use.

Access to fishing grounds, farmlands, and trade routes increasingly depends on permissions issued by commanders operating from forest camps rather than on decisions by local councils or chiefs. Authority has shifted, not through formal declaration, but through incremental control of movement and livelihoods.

How conservation and governance hollowed the ground

The transformation of Kainji Lake into a security corridor is as much the product of ideology as it is the cumulative outcome of governance failure layered over decades.

The creation of Kainji Lake National Park in 1976 displaced communities and restricted access to land and water without meaningfully integrating residents into conservation planning. Fishing zones were closed, grazing was curtailed, and farming was criminalised in places where alternatives did not exist. Promised livelihoods rarely materialised.

Park rangers – tasked with enforcing vast conservation boundaries – were underpaid, poorly equipped, and often absent. Their presence, when felt, was frequently punitive rather than protective.

Local governments in Bagudo, Suru, Kaiama, Borgu, and Ngaski remain chronically weak. 

When armed violence escalated across the northwestern region, security deployments focused on Zamfara, Katsina, and parts of Niger State. Kebbi’s borderlands were treated as peripheral, stable, and low-risk. That assumption proved costly.

Border governance failed as well. Coordination with Benin and the Niger Republics remains distant, reactive, and politicised. Joint patrols are rare. Intelligence sharing is uneven. Communities know this. Armed actors understand it better.

Armed groups arrived first as guests, then as protectors, and finally as power brokers, filling gaps the state created—sometimes violently, sometimes persuasively.

Poverty caused by the absence of authority

In the absence of legitmate sate authority, people seek alternative systems of order. Armed groups exploit this vacuum expertly. They tax, regulate, punish, and reward. In some communities, the question is no longer whether armed groups are legitimate, but whether they are avoidable. Increasingly, they are not.

Once a symbol of Nigeria’s conservation ambition, KLNP has become a largely ungoverned hub exploited by a mix of violent actors: jihadist cells, armed terrorist factions, and transnational militants with roots beyond Nigeria’s borders.

From the northwest’s perspective – particularly Kebbi State – the park functions as a rear operational hub. Armed groups operating in border local governments use it for recruitment, logistics, training, and cross-border movement into the Benin Republic. Its sheer size, rugged terrain, and weak oversight enable a dangerous convergence: criminal armed groups blending with jihadism.

This shift carries national implications

Kainji’s forests and waterways provide mobility, with the lake economy providing revenue streams and border proximity offering escape and reinforcement routes.

While Sambisa became synonymous with territorial insurgency, Kainji signals the maturation of a corridor-based conflict economythat binds Nigeria’s northwest to wider Sahelian instability through forest reserves and lake communities.

When conservation spaces double as conflict connectors, the impact extends beyond biodiversity loss. Human buffers weaken first as communities negotiate survival under parallel authorities. Ecological buffers follow as enforcement fractures and resource exploitation become embedded in armed group financing.

The lake basin lies close to Kainji dam, a critical energy infrastructure, touches sensitive international borders, and anchors trade and livelihood systems that extend deep into the country’s interior.

In 2026, the geographic corridor surrounding the lake and its forest reserves recorded some of the highest levels of mass killings and large-scale abductions in Nigeria. Armed groups operate with increasing confidence, widening their reach across rural settlements and mobility routes connecting Niger State to Kebbi, Zamfara, and beyond toward the Sahelian belt.

The warning signs are not limited to a single park

In April 2025, the Conservator-General of Nigeria’s National Park Service, Ibrahim Musa Goni, told HumAngle that six national parks across the country were overrun by terrorists. Two years earlier, the federal government had created 10 additional parks to prevent further takeovers. However, only four of those new parks are currently operational. In addition to the seven existing parks, only eleven national parks are currently functioning nationwide.

Even where reclamation has occurred, the process is complex. The Conservator General pointed to Kaduna State as an example, describing what he termed a “mutual understanding” between authorities and armed groups. 

“They have agreed to resolve their issues,” he said. “[As a result], most of the forest and game reserves, and even the national park in Kaduna State, have today been freed of banditry.” This, he argued, has brought “relative peace” and enabled forest and game guards, including officers in Birnin Gwari, to resume operations.

The National Park Service has also redefined its institutional posture. “The government classified the National Park Service as a paramilitary organisation,” Goni explained. “And as a paramilitary organisation, the act provides that we can bear arms.” Rangers affiliated with the Service have received training from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime to address wildlife crime and respond to terror-related takeovers. According to Goni, this training has strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to confront forest-based criminality linked to armed groups and insurgents.

The approach is not solely security-driven. The Service engages surrounding communities through alternative livelihood programmes, skills training, and starter packs intended to reduce dependence on park resources. “This has, in a great deal, diverted the attention of most of them from the resources of the national parks,” Goni said, adding that it has helped contain hunting and wildlife trafficking.

Yet resource limitations remain significant. “Apart from managing wild animal resources and the plants, we also have to manage the human population,” he acknowledged, noting that the Service cannot meet the needs of every community bordering the parks.

Around Kainji, these gaps are visible.

The construction of new silos for the U.S. Air Force’s future LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) means that units charged with defending them will have to update their tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Air Force Security Forces personnel regularly train to protect existing silos housing LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBMs, as well as associated launch facilities, or even recapture them if necessary. The need for totally new silos and other infrastructure has been a major issue for the Sentinel program, contributing significantly to delays and cost overruns that triggered a total restructuring that is still ongoing.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO), a congressional watchdog, highlighted how Sentinel will impact Air Force Security Forces units in a brief report released earlier today. This comes a day after the Air Force put out its own update on the new ICBM program, stating that the current goal is for the restructuring effort to wrap up before the end of the year and for the first launch of a prototype LGM-35A to occur in 2027. The hope now is that Sentinel will begin entering operational service sometime in the early 2030s. The original schedule had called for the missiles to reach initial operational capability in 2029.

“DOD will need to complete Sentinel launch facility test and evaluation activities early in the transition to inform DOD and Air Force security policy updates,” the GAO report says. “Because security forces incorporate these updates into unit-level operating instructions, these policy updates will be needed to train Air Force security forces for the transition.”

The report does not elaborate on the changes that will be required. As noted, Security Forces personnel currently assigned to Air Force Missile wings train to protect the Minuteman III force above and below ground. There are currently 400 LGM-30Gs loaded into silos spread across five states. Sentinel is said to offer greater range and improved accuracy, as well as reliability and sustainability benefits, over the aging Minuteman IIIs, which first entered service in 1970. The development of a new ICBM also offers the opportunity for the inclusion of survivability improvements and other additional capabilities.

An Air Force news release from 2019 describes one potential “recapture and recovery” scenario used in a routine training:

“The training simulated a hostile’s attempt to capture a nuclear asset. Security forces Airmen, who arrived by both Humvee and helicopter, began to combat the threat and worked their way toward retaking control of the launch facility. After neutralizing the threat, recapturing and securing the launch facility, the Airmen performed self-aid buddy care and tactical combat casualty care.”

The video below shows scenes from a recapture and recovery exercise conducted as part of the larger Global Thunder 23 exercise.

91st Missile Wing participates in Global Thunder 23

Terrorists or other hostile actors could also seek to break into silos or launch facilities just to damage or destroy them. Even if they could not trigger a nuclear detonation, blowing up an ICBM inside its silo would have significant operational, environmental, and other ramifications.

The Air Force had originally said it would reuse Minuteman III silos and other existing infrastructure for Sentinel, but subsequently determined that was no longer a viable course of action. As such, new silos and launch control facilities could easily come with substantially different physical layouts that would affect the tactics, techniques, and procedures for securing them. The LGM-35A missiles will also be completely different from the existing LGM-30Gs, and there could be additional notable differences in how the Sentinels are married together with their new ground-based infrastructure. All of this could further impact how Security Forces personnel prepare themselves for a variety of contingencies, including any potential for accidental detonations or launches.

In its update about Sentinel yesterday, the Air Force shared that prime contractor Northrop Grumman is set to start building a prototype launch silo at the company’s facility in Promontory, Utah, this month. “This crucial effort will allow engineers to test and refine modern construction techniques, validating the new silo design before work begins in the missile fields,” according to the release.

There’s a strong possibility that a prototype silo could also be used to help develop and refine new Security Forces TTPs in future, as well.

Site defense is also just one aspect of the elaborate and costly security ecosystem in place now for the Minuteman III force. This includes protection for ICBMs while they are being transported via transporter-erector trucks, as well as loaded or unloaded into silos. All of this will also have to adapt to the future Sentinel missiles and their new facilities. The Air Force has already been modernizing certain aspects of nuclear force protection capabilities, including the acquisition of new MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopters to replace aging UH-1Ns used to provide air support over the silo fields and for convoys on the move. An MH-139A was used to escort a Minuteman III convoy for the first time in January.

In terms of other Sentinel-related infrastructure work, “this summer, prototyping activities at F.E. Warren AFB [Air Force Base, in Wyoming] will validate innovative utility corridor construction methods, which are key to streamlining the installation of thousands of miles of secure infrastructure and fielding the system faster,” the Air Force’s release added. “Meanwhile, foundational construction on permanent facilities is already well underway. The first of three new Wing Command Centers is taking shape at F.E. Warren AFB, and critical test facilities are being erected at Vandenberg SFB [Space Force Base, in California] to support the future flight test campaign.”

So-called Site Activation Task Force (SATAF) detachments are also helping lay the groundwork for the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel at F.E. Warren and Vandenberg, as well as Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana and Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota. It should be noted that Vandenberg does not currently host operational ICBMs, and is not set to do so in the future, but is used for routine test launches. The Air Force also says that the planned first launch of a Sentinel in 2027 will be from a pad rather than a silo.

US Air Force launches Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg in unarmed test

The Air Force is otherwise hopeful that the ongoing restructuring effort will reduce the chance for further schedule risks to the Sentinel program and, by extension, cost growth.

“We certainly have not lowered the bar, and we certainly have not taken on any risk by doing this,” Air Force Gen. Dale White, the new Direct Reporting Portfolio Manager (DRPM) for Critical Major Weapon Systems (CMWS), told Breaking Defense in an interview published yesterday. The DRPM CMWS role was established last August to create a “single empowered leader” to manage Sentinel and other top-priority Air Force weapon systems programs, including the F-47 sixth-generation fighter and B-21 Raider stealth bomber.

“The restructured program incorporates key lessons learned to ensure maximum efficiency,” the Air Force’s release explained. “The decision to build new silos, for example, avoids the unpredictable costs and safety hazards of excavating and retrofitting 450 unique structures built over 50 years ago, and is a prime example of choosing a path that delivers capability with greater speed and less risk.”

“Sentinel program officials continue to evaluate options to potentially redesign portions of the weapon system for cost reductions and are looking at avenues to minimize further schedule delays,” GAO’s report today also noted. “For example, the Air Force is reevaluating system requirements and evaluating changes to the acquisition strategy – both of which could limit further cost and schedule growth.”

GAO’s report did still highlight continued concerns about potential challenges for Sentinel, including in relation to software development for the missiles and work on the extensive new ground infrastructure. As noted, the need for all-new silos has already been a central factor in delays and cost overruns, despite the hope that this will prove less risky in the long run. There are also concerns about sustaining the Minuteman III force beyond 2036, when the transition to Sentinel was originally supposed to be complete. A seamless replacement process is critical to ensuring that the land-based leg of America’s nuclear triad remains a credible deterrent capability throughout.

“I think Sentinel is going to be a bit easier with some of the things we’re designing into the program, the digital infrastructure, the open architecture,” Air Force Gen. Stephen Davis, head of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC), told TWZ in an interview last month. “I think it will make it easier to upgrade and keep that missile relevant. I don’t have any worries about being able to do that in the future.”

Overall, the Sentinel is categorized as “megaproject” by GAO, defined as something that “costs $1 billion or more, affects 1 million or more people, and runs for years.” Such efforts “are extremely risky ventures, notoriously difficult to manage, and often fail to achieve their original objectives,” according to the Congressional watchdog.

A revised cost for Sentinel has yet to be released. However, when the Air Force announced the restructuring effort back in 2024, the total acquisition costs were projected to rise to approximately $140.9 billion, an 81 percent increase over the original estimates.

Even if the restructured Sentinel plan holds going forward, the program will still be immensely complex and resource-intensive, and have many different facets, including changes to how Security Forces units operate going forward.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

Democrats have called for a ban on immigration agents wearing masks and are pushing for increased oversight of their operations.

The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) ran out of funding over the weekend, leading to the third partial government shutdown of President Donald Trump’s second term, as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain stalled while Congress is in recess until February 23.

Democrats are calling for changes to the DHS’s immigration operations after two fatal shootings of US citizens in the city of Minneapolis last month. Alex Pretti and Renee Good were shot dead by federal officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol during such operations.

On Monday, state officials in Minnesota said that the FBI has refused to share evidence with state law enforcement following Pretti’s killing on January 24.

“This lack of cooperation is concerning and unprecedented,” Minnesota’s Bureau of Criminal Apprehension superintendent, Drew Evans, said in a statement.

DHS entered a shutdown on Saturday, but will continue operations deemed essential. Cuts affect agencies under the DHS, including the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Customs and Border Protection (CBP) – which runs Border Patrol – ICE, and the US coastguard.

At US airports, 2,933 of the TSA’s 64,130 employees have been furloughed for the duration of the shutdown. The remaining 95 percent of staff will remain on duty but will work without pay until the DHS is funded.

Earlier this month, Democrats sent Republicans a list of 10 demands to rein in immigration enforcement. In a letter, authored by House of Representatives Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the politicians called for increased oversight of the DHS.

The letter called for DHS officers not to enter private property without a judicial warrant and to require verification that someone is not a US citizen before placing them in immigration detention. It also called for DHS to mandate that its officers do not wear masks, have visible identification, and wear clear uniforms.

Democrats are also seeking to prohibit immigration enforcement actions near courts, medical facilities, houses of worship, schools, and polling places.

They further called for increased coordination with local and state agencies after the federal government blocked state and local law enforcement from participating in investigations related to the deaths in Minneapolis.

“Federal immigration agents cannot continue to cause chaos in our cities while using taxpayer money that should be used to make life more affordable for working families,” Jeffries said in the letter.

“The American people rightfully expect their elected representatives to take action to rein in ICE and ensure no more lives are lost. It is critical that we come together to impose common sense reforms and accountability measures that the American people are demanding.”

Tom Homan, Trump’s border chief, dismissed the calls from Democrats on CBS’s Face the Nation, referring to the requests as “unreasonable”.

Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, meanwhile, echoed Homan’s stance. On CNN’s current affairs programme, State of the Union, he claimed that Democrats are engaging in “political theatre”.

African nations must have permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council, the head of the world body has told the African Union.

Latin American countries and most of those in Asia do not have a permanent presence either, despite their huge populations.

Can the UN be reformed?

Presenter: Rishaad Salamat

Guests:

Olukayode Bakare – visiting scholar in international relations and African politics at the University of Colorado Denver

Mukesh Kapila – former UN humanitarian coordinator in Sudan

Tim Murithi – senior adviser at the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation

Leaders gathered in Ethiopia’s capital for the African Union summit to discuss regional challenges. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres spoke to Al Jazeera’s Haru Mutasa and said Africa should have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.

US Secretary of State of Marco Rubio recalled the long-shared history between the US and Europe at this year’s Munich Security Conference, as he made it clear that Washington does not plan on abandoning the transatlantic alliance.

The Arctic is increasingly recognized as being of critical strategic importance, with the U.S., as well as NATO members, eager to swiftly implement measures to stamp authority on and preserve security in the region. This will need a multi-layered approach that includes a host of airborne capabilities, especially those pertaining to the surveillance of huge areas. These requirements are complicated by the austere conditions of the frigid high north. General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) believes its MQ-9B SeaGuardian® remotely piloted aircraft is ideally suited for Arctic ops and is ready to answer the call for duty at the top of the world.

The continuing retreat of the polar ice cap is opening up opportunities for new shipping routes as well as access to previously untapped natural resources. Together, this has spurred a rush for increased Western presence in the region to ensure access to help stabilize a potential flashpoint that’s of global interest and importance. Even so, the Arctic remains one of the most inhospitable zones on the planet.

Russia has been making moves to extend its already robust military presence in the Arctic. This includes the reactivation of dormant northern air bases and seaports that could be utilized to help deny access to the high north. China too is recognizing the strategic potential of the area, underscored by an expanding presence there. This helped spur the Pentagon to identify the Arctic as “an increasingly competitive domain,” warning Congress of China’s interest in the region.

Braced for the cold

The MQ-9B SeaGuardian is designed for medium-altitude, long-endurance missions, and it incorporates more than three decades’ worth of GA-ASI’s experience in uncrewed air systems. The company has honed its expertise through programs such as the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper. The MQ-9B family includes the baseline SkyGuardian and the maritime-optimized SeaGuardian, as well as the United Kingdom’s Protector version.

The SeaGuardian is physically larger than its predecessors, with a longer wingspan, giving it more range than anything else in this category, as well as better endurance – as much as 40 hours in some configurations. The SeaGuardian’s longer wings mean it can generate sufficient lift to enable it to operate from a wide variety of airfields with runways of limited length, thus affording greater operational flexibility.

GA-ASI is also developing a short takeoff and landing-optimized version of the MQ-9B, which could be employed from aircraft carriers and big deck amphibious assault ships. This capability could also be employed for accessing even smaller airfields.

Introducing MQ-9B STOL

When it comes to cold-weather operations, such as those in the Arctic, the aircraft features electro-expulsive de-icing and a field-proven cold-start capability. In one demonstration, an MQ-9B was cold-soaked and then de-iced, and it started its engine in ambient temperatures below -21 degrees Centigrade (about -5 degrees Fahrenheit), then took off without incident. GA-ASI has proved that the aircraft can roll out from a climate-controlled hangar into subzero ambient conditions, start up, and fly.

“With respect to iced runways, we can operate at airports with runways the same as a conventional aircraft – so it’s cold, there’s ice, but the airport ops crew goes out and clears and salts, and that enables normal flight ops at their field,” commented a GA-ASI spokesperson. “We can do that as far north as there are airports that support those kinds of conditions at the field.”

Important aircraft operators have selected the MQ-9B specifically for these features.

“Nobody knows the hardships associated with operating in the cold better than the Royal Canadian Air Force [RCAF], which is why they needed to be confident this aircraft would work in some of the least hospitable fields in the world,” says Michel Lalumiere, a former RCAF general officer who today leads Canadian business strategy for GA-ASI. “We’ve been working closely with them to ensure that it will become normal operations.” 

Canada is purchasing 11 MQ-9Bs for Arctic operations to provide persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).

An uncrewed vehicle like the MQ-9B can be controlled remotely from nearly anywhere on the planet. It can operate from an existing air base or at a remote forward location without the need for extensive supporting manpower deployments. Automated takeoff and landing means any support crews that are needed to launch, recover, and maintain operational SeaGuardians can be minimal and more easily sustained.

“You don’t need to bed down a squadron somewhere cold and remote if you don’t want to,” Lalumiere says. “You could send up a small team that catches an MQ-9B at a forward post, refuels, turns the aircraft, and sends it on its way, enabled by the automatic takeoff and landing capabilities. Sustaining these operations becomes about the missions and not the deployments, as we might have thought about them once.”

There is a linked benefit to operating uncrewed air assets in the vast and inhospitable Arctic. Crewed patrol aircraft necessitate search-and-rescue assets standing by in case of emergency. The uncrewed MQ-9B doesn’t need those, so that kind of resource-intensive contingency support can be tasked elsewhere.

Time on task is another consideration. An airborne, on-mission SeaGuardian can change out operating crews over regular shift patterns at the ground control station while the air asset continues its work. With sufficient aircraft and aircrews, an air arm can maintain sufficient orbits to keep watch on a large area of ocean around the clock, indefinitely.

“Imagine an air ops plan like this. A detachment of MQ-9Bs is working heel-to-toe, providing 24/7 overwatch above a patch of important waters,” says Lalumiere. “Aircraft one might have taken off carrying a 360-degree surface search radar to establish the highest-quality domain awareness – and it detects a specific ship of interest. As that aircraft stays with that target, commanders decide to prepare aircraft two in a clean configuration, with no payloads, in order to maximize its endurance. Aircraft two launches and relieves aircraft one, staying with the vessel of interest for many hours. The coast guard decides to interdict the vessel. The aircraft with communications relay equipment coordinates that operation while the other aircraft remain ready to launch, take over, and hold custody of the area, 24/7, until the mission is completed.” 

Multi-mission capability

The modular payload and open architecture MQ-9B is designed to carry a range of systems that enable it to sense and observe anything that comes or goes on the surface of land and sea, in the air, and even beneath the waves. The aircraft can also collect signals intelligence or take on a number of other roles by using many specialized payloads. This is in addition to the aircraft’s ability to strike targets of many kinds.

The MQ-9B has the ability to deploy sonobuoys to listen for submarines – a highly valuable feature considering what lurks below the surface in the Arctic. GA-ASI has flight-tested sonobuoy dispensing system (SDS) pods as part of a broader demonstration of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities for the SeaGuardian. This initially involved an MQ-9A carrying one of the 10-tube dispensers and other ASW-related systems as a surrogate for a SeaGuardian.

GA-ASI and the U.S. Navy continued to expand the ASW capability of the MQ-9B with testing in December 2025 that featured dual sonobuoy pods, thereby doubling the number of sonobuoys available. “Expanding sonobuoy capacity, including Multi-static Active Coherent (MAC) technology for SeaGuardian, has been an integral part of our advanced ASW strategy to broaden and enhance search areas,” said GA-ASI President David Alexander.

While the SDS pods are initially used to release sonobuoys, the company has said that they will also be able to launch smaller unmanned aircraft, the latter of which could then potentially operate as an autonomous swarm. This can drastically increase the size of a single MQ-9B’s collection area and provides tactical flexibility for a single platform that was previously impossible to obtain.

The MQ-9B is already being prepared to be able to release a small unmanned craft of its own, such as GA-ASI’s Sparrowhawk drone and other launched effects.  

In addition to providing ISR over a large geographical area, small drones like the Sparrowhawk could provide other capabilities, such as stand-in electronic warfare jamming, or even act as decoys to confuse an enemy, further improving the survivability of the host aircraft. U.S. Special Operations Command has already experimented with the use of MQ-9Bs as launch platforms for small expendable drones.

The SeaGuardian is also being prepared as an airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) variant, which would present a readily deployable, long-endurance solution for this important role, which would carry obvious benefits in the Arctic to keep an eye on the airspace, including spotting unexpected air traffic.

Operational relevance

The SeaGuardian’s multi-mission flexibility is seen by GA-ASI as being highly relevant to Arctic multi-domain awareness. A regular pattern of patrol flights would enable authorities to maintain a comprehensive picture of who and what is present in the far north, and therefore how best to respond.

A detachment of uncrewed MQ-9Bs presents a far smaller footprint than crewed patrol aircraft, which are often costly and have their own risk factors when operating in such austere conditions. It’s worth noting that some satellite coverage in the high latitudes is spotty, irregular, and operationally unresponsive. However, the SeaGuardian is equipped with satellite communications equipment that can take advantage of both new and emerging spacecraft constellations for operations anywhere.

The MQ-9B has been ordered by the United Kingdom, Belgium, Poland, Japan, Canada, India, Qatar, and several other nations. SeaGuardians have already proved their worth. In 2024, MQ-9B supported the Indian Navy in a rescue mission to save crew members aboard a merchant ship captured by pirates as well as helping to locate vessels in distress. They have even aided mariners in the Pacific Ocean to avoid the hazards represented by newly formed volcanic islands.

The latest customers include a group of northern powers, namely Canada, Denmark and, most recently, Germany. The U.S. Navy has also included the MQ-9B in fleet exercises, including Northern Edge, Integrated Battle Problem, RIMPAC, and Group Sail, in which it has escorted warships, coordinated communications, and tracked simulated submarines, amongst other tasks. The Navy is now expected to give GA-ASI deployment flight clearance for distributed ASW operations using the SeaGuardian.

So, while many in Washington, D.C., and in European capitals are preparing for a disputatious Arctic, GA-ASI believes that the SeaGuardian is ready for the challenges that lie ahead at the top of the world.

Contact the editor: Tyler@twz.com

The vote is a direct contest between frontrunner Tarique Rahman’s BNP and a Jamaat-e-Islami-led coalition of 11 parties.

The Palestinian presidency calls the decision a ‘dangerous’ Israeli ‘attempt to legalize settlement expansion’.

Israel’s security cabinet has approved new rules aimed at strengthening Israeli control over the occupied West Bank, according to local media reports, drawing condemnation from Palestinian authorities.

The Palestinian presidency, in a statement on Sunday, called the decision “dangerous” and an “open Israeli attempt to legalize settlement expansion” and land confiscation. The office of President Mahmoud Abbas called for the United States and the United Nations Security Council to intervene immediately.

Jordan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs also condemned the decision, which it said was “aimed at imposing illegal Israeli sovereignty” and entrenching settlements.

The Hamas group called on Palestinians in the West Bank to “intensify the confrontation with the occupation and its settlers.”

The rules will make it easier for Israeli settlers to buy land in the occupied West Bank and give Israeli officials stronger powers to enforce laws on Palestinians in the area, Israeli media reported.

The West Bank is among the areas that Palestinians seek for a future independent state, along with Gaza and occupied East Jerusalem. Much of the West Bank is under direct Israeli military control, with extremely limited Palestinian self-rule in some areas, governed by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority (PA).

According to the Israeli news outlets Ynet and Haaretz, the new steps include removing rules that stopped private Jewish individuals from buying land in the occupied West Bank.

The measures also include allowing Israeli authorities to take charge of managing some religious sites, and increasing Israeli supervision and enforcement in areas run by the PA, according to the media reports.

The office of far-right Israeli Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, in a statement said “we will continue to bury the idea of a Palestinian state”.

Palestinian Vice President Hussein Al-Sheikh said the reports about expected Israeli steps to increase annexation and create new facts on the ground in the occupied West Bank are a total violation of all signed and binding agreements, a serious escalation, and a violation of international law, the Palestinian news agency Wafa reported.

He emphasised that these unilateral measures aim to eliminate any political prospects, obliterate the two-state solution, and drag the entire region into further tension and instability.

The reports come three days before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC.

Armed groups in Nigeria have killed more than 200 people in several attacks in recent days.

Meanwhile, all the Christian worshippers abducted from churches last month have been released.

How serious is Nigeria’s security situation – and what progress is being made?

Presenter: Adrian Finighan

Guests:

James Barnett – non-resident research fellow at the Hudson Institute, specialising in armed groups in Nigeria

Oluwole Ojewale – regional coordinator for West and Central Africa at the Institute for Security Studies

Melvin Foote – founder and president of Constituency for Africa, and a specialist on US-Africa policy

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is facing the possibility it could run out of funding next week, as Democrats press for reforms to its immigration enforcement tactics.

But Republican leaders on Thursday pushed back against the Democratic proposals, rejecting them as moot.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, for instance, called the demands “unrealistic and unserious”.

“This is not a blank check situation where Republicans just do agree to a list of Democrat demands,” Thune said, adding that the two parties appeared to be at an impasse.

“We aren’t anywhere close to having any sort of an agreement.”

Congress needs to pass funding legislation for the DHS by February 13, or else its programmes could be temporarily shuttered.

Ten demands from Democrats

Currently, Democrats are focused on changes to DHS’s immigration operations, particularly through programmes like Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

But any funding shortfall stands to affect other Homeland Security functions as well, including the services offered by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), which conducts security screenings at airports.

Top Democrats, however, have argued that a Homeland Security shutdown is necessary, given the abuses that have unfolded under President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.

Just last month, two US citizens, Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good, were killed at the hands of immigration agents in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in incidents that were caught on bystander video.

Their shooting deaths have since gone viral, prompting international outrage. Other footage shows masked agents deploying chemical agents and beating civilians who were documenting their activities or protesting – activities protected under the US Constitution.

To protect civil liberties and avoid further bloodshed, Democrats on Wednesday night released a series of 10 demands.

Many pertain to agent transparency. One of the demands was a ban on immigration agents wearing face masks, and another would require them to prominently display their identification number and agency.

Body cameras would also be mandated, though the Democrats clarified that the footage obtained through such devices should only be used for accountability, not to track protesters.

Other proposed rules would codify use-of-force policies in the Homeland Security Department and prohibit entry into households without a judicial warrant, as has been common practice under US law. They would also outlaw racial profiling as a metric for conducting immigration stops and arrests.

Political battle over funding

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said he was “astounded to hear” that Republicans considered the demands to be unreasonable.

“It’s about people’s basic rights. It’s about people’s safety,” Schumer said. He called on Republicans to “explain why” they objected to such standards.

In a joint statement with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Schumer appealed to members of both parties to coalesce around what he described as common-sense guardrails.

“Federal immigration agents cannot continue to cause chaos in our cities while using taxpayer money that should be used to make life more affordable for working families,” Schumer and Jeffries wrote.

“It is critical that we come together to impose common sense reforms and accountability measures that the American people are demanding.”

Already, Democrats succeeded in separating Homeland Security funding from a spending bill passed on Tuesday to prevent a partial government shutdown.

Some Democrats and Republicans have pushed for a second split in order to vote on funding for ICE and CBP separately from FEMA and TSA spending.

But Republican leaders have opposed holding separate votes on those agencies, with Thune arguing it would amount to giving Democrats the ability to “defund law enforcement”.

Thune added that he would encourage Democrats to submit their reforms in legislation separate from Homeland Security funding.

It remains to be seen whether the two parties can agree to a compromise before the February 13 deadline. Democrats, meanwhile, have continued to push for other measures, including the removal of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

United States border security chief Tom Homan has announced that the administration of President Donald Trump will “draw down” 700 immigration enforcement personnel from Minnesota while promising to continue operations in the northern state.

The update on Wednesday was the latest indication of the Trump administration pivoting on its enforcement surge in the state following the killing of two US citizens by immigration agents in Minneapolis in January.

Homan, who is officially called Trump’s “border czar”, said the decision came amid new cooperation agreements with local authorities, particularly related to detaining individuals at county jails. Details of those agreements were not immediately available.

About 3,000 immigration enforcement agents are currently believed to be in Minnesota as part of Trump’s enforcement operations.

“Given this increase in unprecedented collaboration, and as a result of the need for less law enforcement officers to do this work in a safer environment, I have announced, effective immediately, we will draw down 700 people effective today – 700 law enforcement personnel,” Homan said.

The announcement comes after Homan was sent to Minnesota at the end of January in response to widespread protests over immigration enforcement and the killing of Renee Nicole Good on January 7 by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent and Alex Pretti on January 24 by a US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officer, both in Minneapolis.

Homan said reforms made since his arrival have included consolidating ICE and CBP under a single chain of command.

He said Trump “fully intends to achieve mass deportations during this administration, and immigration enforcement actions will continue every day throughout this country”.

Immigration rights observers have said the administration’s mass deportation approach has seen agents use increasingly “dragnet” tactics to meet large detention quotas, including randomly stopping individuals and asking for their papers. The administration has increasingly detained undocumented individuals with no criminal records, even US citizens and people who have legal status to live in the US.

Homan said agents would prioritise who they considered to be “public safety threats” but added, “Just because you prioritise public safety threats, don’t mean we forget about everybody else. We will continue to enforce the immigration laws in this country.”

The “drawdown”, he added, would not apply to what he described as “personnel providing security for our officers”.

“We will not draw down on personnel providing security and responding to hostile incidents until we see a change,” he said.

Critics have accused immigration enforcement officers, who do not receive the same level of crowd control training as most local police forces, of using excessive violence in responding to protesters and individuals legally monitoring their actions.

Trump administration officials have regularly blamed unrest on “agitators”. They accused both Good and Pretti of threatening officers before their killings although video evidence of the exchanges has contradicted that characterisation.

Last week, the administration announced it was opening a federal civil rights investigation into the killing of Pretti, who was fatally shot while he was pinned to the ground by immigration agents. That came moments after an agent removed a gun from Pretti’s body, which the 37-year-old had not drawn and was legally carrying.

Federal authorities have not opened a civil rights investigation into the killing of Good, who they have maintained sought to run over an ICE agent before she was fatally shot. Video evidence appeared to show Good trying to turn away from the agent.

On Friday, thousands of people took to the streets of Minneapolis and other US cities amid calls for a federal strike in protest against the Trump administration’s deportation drive.

Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison and other state and local officials have also challenged the immigration enforcement surge in the state, arguing that the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE and the CBP, has been violating constitutional protections.

A federal judge last week said she will not halt the operations as a lawsuit progresses in court. Department of Justice lawyers have dismissed the suit as “legally frivolous”.

On Wednesday, a poll released by the Marquette Law School found wide-ranging disquiet over ICE’s approach, with 60 percent of US adults nationwide saying they disapproved of how the agency was conducting itself. The poll was conducted from January 21 to January 28, with many of the surveys conducted before Pretti’s killing.

The poll still found widespread support for ICE among Republicans, with about 80 percent approving of its work. Just 5 percent of Democrats voiced similar approval.

Perhaps most worryingly for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms in November, just 23 percent of independents – potential swing voters in the upcoming vote – approved of ICE’s actions.

TODAY bosses have beefed up police and security presence at the NBC morning show’s NYC studio after co-anchor Savannah Guthrie’s mother was allegedly abducted from her home.

Multiple sources have exclusively told The U.S. Sun that the network made the decision for the health and safety of their Today talent and crew members out of an “abundance of caution.”

Beloved Today host Savannah‘s mother Nancy, 84, was reported missing from her Tucson, Arizona home on Sunday morning, February 1.

Local police said they believe she was abducted against her will, and have not revealed any suspects days later.

“Things are tense at the studio, and that as a result, NBC has stepped up security for on-air talent,” a source told The U.S. Sun, though it’s unclear if Savannah, 54, or any Today hosts were also targeted by the perpetrators.

“NBC has partnered with the NYPD to make sure their staff remains safe, out of an abundance of caution.”

A separate insider confirmed both cops and private security are stationed at the midtown studio and offices.

The U.S. Sun has reached out to the NYPD and NBC for comment.

Timeline of Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance

Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of Today show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, disappeared from her home on February 1, 2026.

Timeline:

• January 31: Family members dropped off Guthrie, 84, at her home in Tucson, Arizona, at around 9:45 pm.
• February 1: The Pima County Sheriff’s Office received a 911 missing person call at noon.
• Pima County Sheriff Christopher Nanos said the scene found at Guthrie’s home caused “grave concern.”
• February 2: Nanos said investigators are probing Guthrie’s case as a crime, adding that officials do not believe the 84-year-old voluntarily walked out of her home.
• The Pima County sheriff said Guthrie has “limited mobility” and is in dire need of her daily medication, which if she does not take could be “fatal.”
• Savannah Guthrie released a statement to her co-hosts at Today, saying, “On behalf of our family, I want to thank everyone for the thoughts, prayers and messages of support. Right now, our focus remains on the safe return of our dear mom.”
• Savannah missed the February 2 edition of Today as she flew to Arizona to assist in the search for her mother.

SAVANNAH’S SUPPORT TEAM

Savannah’s Today colleagues have been sending her love and prayers as they address the devastating case on air.

“Sending our love, my friend,” Sheinelle Jones said on Monday.

Craig Melvin called the story “deeply personal,” and delivered Savannah’s first message to fans about the tragedy.

“On behalf of our family, I want to thank everyone for the thoughts, prayers, and messages of support,” the statement read.

“Right now, our focus remains on he safe return of our dear mom.”

Jenna Bush Hager, Savannah’s longtime close friend, held back tears as she discussed the news on live TV.

“We are thinking of our dearest, dearest Savannah and her whole family this morning,” she said.

MYSTERY DEEPENS

The FBI has joined the search for Nancy, and addressed the public at a press conference on Tuesday.

Special Agent Jon Edwards insisted the FBI is doing “everything in their power to bring Nancy Guthrie home to her family.”

“We’re downloading and analyzing cellphones, obtaining cell tower information, conducting interviews, and providing any and all investigative support that the sheriff’s department needs,” he said.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos then admitted “we’re stumped,” adding they do not currently have any strong leads in the case.

A possible ransom note was reported by TMZ, and cops said they are “taking all tips and leads very seriously.”

Though there were reportedly signs of forced entry at Nancy’s suburban Tucson home, police have said they don’t believe a robbery was behind the abduction.

“I wish somebody would call us and say, ‘Hey,’ because that’s what the family wants,” Sheriff Nanos told Us Weekly.

“They just want her back. ‘Hey, no questions asked, call us where to come and get her, and we’ll do that.”

Nancy reportedly left her iPhone, watch, car and wallet at home.

A splatter of blood belonging to Nancy was also found on the property.

‘BELIEVE IN PRAYER’

Savannah recently posted another statement to her Instagram, asking fans to continue their prayers.

“We believe in prayer. We believe in voices raised in unison, in love, in hope. we believe in goodness. we believe in humanity. above all, we believe in Him,” she said.

Savannah’s husband, Michael Feldman, also spoke out about the tragic case.

Michael told Page Six that he feels “mostly unhelpful” in the disappearance.

He thanked the media’s “thoughtfulness” in their coverage.

Members of the public with any information are urged to call 911 or the Pima County Sheriff’s Department at 520-351-4900.

Luis Martinez was on his way to work on a frigid Minneapolis morning when federal agents suddenly boxed him in, forcing the SUV he was driving to a dead stop in the middle of the street.

Masked agents rapped on the window, demanding Martinez produce his ID. Then one held his cellphone inches from Martinez’s face and scanned his features, capturing the shape of his eyes, the curves of his lips, the exact quadrants of his cheeks.

All the while, the agent kept asking: Are you a U.S. citizen?

The encounter in a Minneapolis suburb this week captures the tactics on display in the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota, which it describes as the largest of its kind and one that has drawn national scrutiny after federal agents shot and killed two U.S. citizens this month.

Across Minnesota and other states where the Department of Homeland Security has surged personnel, officials say enforcement efforts are targeted and focused on serious offenders. But photographs, videos and internal documents paint a different picture, showing agents leaning heavily on biometric surveillance and vast, interconnected databases — highlighting how a sprawling digital surveillance apparatus has become central to the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.

Civil liberties experts warn the expanding use of those systems risks sweeping up citizens and noncitizens alike, often with little transparency or meaningful oversight.

Over the past year, Homeland Security and other federal agencies have dramatically expanded their ability to collect, share and analyze people’s personal data, thanks to a web of agreements with local, state, federal and international agencies, plus contracts with technology companies and data brokers. The databases include immigration and travel records, facial images and information drawn from vehicle databases.

In Martinez’s case, the face scan didn’t find a match and it wasn’t until he produced his U.S. passport, which he said he carried for fear of such an encounter, that federal agents let him go.

“I had been telling people that here in Minnesota it’s like a paradise for everybody, all the cultures are free here,” he said. “But now people are running out of the state because of everything that is happening. It’s terrifying. It’s not safe anymore.”

Together with other government surveillance data and systems, federal authorities can now monitor American cities at a scale that would have been difficult to imagine just a few years ago, advocates say. Agents can identify people on the street through facial recognition, trace their movements through license-plate readers and, in some cases, use commercially available phone-location data to reconstruct daily routines and associations.

When asked by the Associated Press about its expanding use of surveillance tools, the Department of Homeland Security said it would not disclose law enforcement sensitive methods.

“Employing various forms of technology in support of investigations and law enforcement activities aids in the arrest of criminal gang members, child sex offenders, murderers, drug dealers, identity thieves and more, all while respecting civil liberties and privacy interests,” it said.

Dan Herman, a former Customs and Border Protection senior advisor in the Biden administration who now works at the Center for American Progress, said the government’s access to facial recognition, other personal data and surveillance systems poses a threat to people’s privacy rights and civil liberties without adequate checks.

“They have access to a tremendous amount of trade, travel, immigration and screening data. That’s a significant and valuable national security asset, but there’s a concern about the potential for abuse,” Herman said. “Everyone should be very concerned about the potential that this data could be weaponized for improper purposes.”

Facial recognition

On Wednesday, Homeland Security disclosed online that it has been using a facial recognition app, Mobile Fortify, that it said uses “trusted source photos” to compare scans of people’s faces that agents take to verify their identity. The app, which Customs and Border Protection said is made by the vendor NEC, uses facial comparison or fingerprint-matching systems.

The app was in operation for CBP and ICE before the immigration crackdown in the Los Angeles area in June, when website 404Media first reported its existence.

In interactions observed by reporters and videos posted online, federal agents are rarely seen asking for consent before holding their cellphones to people’s faces, and in some clips they continue scanning even after someone objects.

In two instances seen by an AP journalist near Columbia Heights, Minn., where immigration officials recently detained a 5-year-old boy and his father, masked agents held their phones a foot away from people’s faces to capture their biometric details.

The technology resembles facial recognition systems used at airports, but unlike airport screenings, where travelers are typically notified and can sometimes opt out, Martinez said he was given no choice.

According to a lawsuit filed against the department by the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago this month, Homeland Security has used Mobile Fortify in the field more than 100,000 times. The Department of Homeland Security told AP that Mobile Fortify supports “accurate identity and immigration-status verification during enforcement operations. It operates with a deliberately high-matching threshold,” and uses only some immigration data.

Without federal guidelines for the use of facial recognition tools, the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights warned in a September 2024 report their deployment raises concerns about accuracy, oversight, transparency, discrimination and access to justice.

Body-camera footage

Last year, the Trump administration scaled back a program to give Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials body cameras, but administration officials said some agents tied to the fatal shooting of Minneapolis ICU nurse Alex Pretti were wearing them and that footage is now being reviewed.

Gregory Bovino, who was the administration’s top Border Patrol official charged with the immigration crackdown in Minneapolis until Monday, began wearing a bodycam in response to a judge’s order late last year.

Body-camera video could help clarify events surrounding federal agents’ killing of Pretti, who was filming immigration agents with his cellphone when they shot him in the back.

Administration officials shifted their tone after independent video footage emerged raising serious questions about some Trump officials’ accusations that Pretti intended to harm agents.

Emerging technologies

Homeland Security and affiliated agencies are piloting and deploying more than 100 artificial intelligence systems, including some used in law enforcement activities, according to the department’s disclosure Wednesday.

Congress last year authorized U.S. Customs and Border Protection to get more than $2.7 billion to build out border surveillance systems and add in AI and other emerging technologies.

In recent weeks, Homeland Security requested more information from private industry on how technology companies and data providers can support their investigations and help identify people.

Meanwhile, longtime government contractor Palantir was paid $30 million to extend a contract to build a system designed to locate people flagged for deportation. On Wednesday, the Trump administration disclosed it’s using Palantir’s AI models to sift through immigration enforcement tips submitted to its tip line.

Homeland Security has also been exploring partnerships with license-plate reader companies like Flock Safety to expand their tracking capabilities.

Rachel Levinson-Waldman, who directs the Brennan Center for Justice’s Liberty and National Security Program, said more funding for government surveillance tools changes the landscape.

“We are developing these technologies for immigrant enforcement,” she said. “Are we also going to expand it or wield it against U.S. citizens who are engaging in entirely lawful or protest activity?”

Burke and Tau write for the Associated Press. AP freelance photojournalist Adam Gray contributed to this report from Minneapolis.

The 2026 Milano Cortino Winter Olympics are set to begin on February 6, with shock at the late news of ICE involvement.

Agents from the United States’ divisive Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will help support US security operations for the Winter Olympic Games in Italy next month, a spokesperson told the AFP news agency.

“At the Olympics, ICE’s Homeland Security Investigations is supporting the US Department of State’s Diplomatic Security Service and host nation to vet and mitigate risks from transnational criminal organisations,” the agency said in a statement.

“All security operations remain under Italian authority.”

It added: “Obviously, ICE does not conduct immigration enforcement operations in foreign countries.”

The potential presence of ICE agents at the February 6-22 Milano-Cortina Games has prompted huge debate in Italy, following the outcry over the deaths of two civilians during an immigration crackdown in Minneapolis.

Italian authorities initially denied the presence of ICE and then sought to downplay its role, suggesting its agents would only help in security for the US delegation.

US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are attending the opening ceremony in Milan on February 6.

On Monday, the president of the northern Lombardy region, which is hosting several of the Olympic events, said ICE’s involvement would be limited to monitoring Vance and Rubio.

“It will be only in a defensive role, but I am convinced that nothing will happen,” Attilio Fontana told reporters.

However, his office then issued a statement saying he did not have any information on their presence, but was responding to a hypothetical question.

Thousands of ICE agents have been deployed by President Donald Trump in various US cities to carry out a crackdown on undocumented immigration.

Their actions have prompted widespread protests, and the recent killings of US citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti, both 37, on the streets of Minneapolis, has led to outrage.

The US will host the 2028 Summer Olympics, with the Games being staged in Los Angeles.