scratch

LOUISVILLE, Ky. — No trainer has won the Kentucky Derby more times than Bob Baffert. Among other living trainers, nobody has won the Derby more than Doug O’Neill.

Combined the two Southern Californians have eight Derby victories — Baffert (six) and O’Neill (two) — one more than the total for the other 15 trainers in the field.

And yet, O’Neill’s horse for Saturday’s race, Pavlovian, is a 30-1 long shot on the morning-line odds, and Baffert’s starters are 20-1 (Potente) and 30-1 (Litmus Test). Not the odds you’d expect to see if you were just looking at the trainers.

Both know it’s nothing personal.

“It’s a sign of how, really, the sport is all about the horse,” O’Neill said at his barn. “Whether you’re Bob or me or whoever, you’re only as good as your horse. Bob and I are bringing in some horses that don’t jump off the page number-wise. But I was very impressed with Potente’s work the other day.”

Potente’s trainer also understands the odds, noting this isn’t the first time he’s brought long shots to the Derby.

“I mean, I’d rather be here with a horse like American Pharoah or Justify,” Baffert said, referring to his Triple Crown winners from 2015 and 2018. “But then I’d be like Todd [Pletcher]. He’s getting sick. I said, ‘You’re sick because you’ve got the favorite [Renegade].’ When I had Pharoah and Justify, I got so sick. I was so stressed out.”

Baffert added he was thinking at the time, “It was a layup; I better win this.”

If those horses were layups, Potente is more like a three-pointer from Stephen Curry range, while Litmus Test is along the lines of Jerry West’s 60-foot shot in the 1970 NBA Finals.

Of Baffert’s 35 previous starters, three went off at odds of 55-1 or higher (they finished sixth, 10th and 17th), and three others were priced at 20-1 or higher. Two of those finished ninth (25-1) and 15th (27-1), but War Emblem won the 2002 race at 20-1.

O’Neill’s first victory, in 2012, was unexpected; I’ll Have Another was priced at 15-1. Four years later, Nyquist triumphed as the 2-1 favorite. Both horses were owned by J. Paul Reddam, as is Pavlovian. A win Saturday would make the duo just the fourth owner-trainer team to win the Derby at least three times.

“That’s very cool,” O’Neill said, noting that Pavlovian is in the same stall Nyquist occupied a decade ago. “A lot of great memories here.

“But you know, when you’re talking a 20-horse field, I like the way Paul puts it: When you’re one out of 20, you got a 95% chance of losing, right? So when you get lucky enough to win, and you’re part of that 5%, you pinch yourself to how lucky and how amazing that experience was and hopefully could be again.”

Pavlovian is an unlikely Derby horse, and not just because he’s trying to become only the fifth Cal-bred to win the race. It’s mainly because he raced exclusively against Cal-breds in seven of his first eight races and only won one.

The last of those races, though, was the Cal Cup Derby, and a strong finish encouraged O’Neill to try the Sunland Park Derby. With Edwin Maldonado riding for the first time, the son of Pavel won, and in the Louisiana Derby he led almost the entire race before Emerging Market passed him in the final strides.

“For him to put up a great fight with a top horse like Emerging Market, it was a huge effort,” O’Neill said. “And the nice thing there, too, we had extra timing between that race and the Kentucky Derby. Knock on wood, everything’s kind of coming together as we had hoped and prayed.”

While O’Neill never could have expected to be here with his Cal-bred, Baffert will start two of the myriad expensive colts his clients buy each year. Potente, the San Felipe winner and Santa Anita Derby runner-up, cost $2.4 million, more than double any other horse in the Derby. Litmus Test, the Los Alamitos Futurity winner who has disappointed in two starts this year, was purchased for $875,000.

“They’re going to have to improve a lot,” Baffert said. “Potente, we’re still trying to figure him out a little bit, what he wants to do, how he wants to run, but he’s a big strong horse. … He’ll get the mile and a quarter.

“And [Litmus Test] was running really well, and then he sort of took a step back on me, but I did ship him a lot, so that might have knocked him out a little bit. But now he looks good. He worked well here, so we’ll see what happens.”

Second scratch

Fulleffort was scratched Thursday because of a chipped bone in his left hind ankle. Trainer Brad Cox still has his two most accomplished horses running Saturday in Florida Derby winner Commandment and Blue Grass champion Further Ado.

The scratch puts the maiden Ocelli in the field in the No. 20 post position. Great White, who moved into the field Wednesday with the scratch of Silent Tactic, will now break from the No. 19 post.

Kentucky Oaks Day

The filly equivalent of the Derby, the Kentucky Oaks, will be run under the lights at 5:40 p.m. PDT Friday. Zany (4-1) is the morning-line favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher, but two Southern California horses should be strong contenders: Michael McCarthy’s Meaning (5-1), the Santa Anita Oaks winner, and Baffert’s Explora (6-1). McCarthy also will start Brooklyn Blonde (30-1).

LOUSVILLE, Ky. — Another day, another change in the Kentucky Derby field, with this one adding another Southern California horse to the starting gate.

Right to Party was scratched Friday morning, the third straight day a horse has been withdrawn, following Silent Tactic and Fulleffort. The latest change brings Robusta off the also-eligible list, giving trainer Doug O’Neill a second horse in Saturday’s race.

Robusta, a Calumet Farm homebred sired by Accelerate, has only a maiden victory from five career starts. His best race was March 7 at Santa Anita when he finished just a head behind Potente in the San Felipe Stakes at odds of 67-1. But in his next start, he faded to last in the Santa Anita Derby.

Emisael Jaramillo originally was named to ride Robusta in the Kentucky Derby, but the Daily Racing Form reported the jockey will keep his commitments Saturday at Santa Anita and Cristian Torres will be aboard Robusta. Torres had been set to ride Silent Tactic.

O’Neill, who won the Derby in 2012 and 2016, also will start Pavlovian, who won the Sunland Park Derby and was second in the Louisiana Derby. The other Derby horses based in Southern California are Mark Glatt’s So Happy, Jeff Mullins’ Intrepido and Bob Baffert’s pair of Potente and Litmus Test.

Right to Party was scheduled to break from the No. 5 post position, meaning every horse outside him will move in a spot. Robusta will be in the No. 20 position.

LOUSVILLE, Ky. — Trainer Brad Cox will have to get by with two starters in his bid to win his second Kentucky Derby after Fulleffort was scratched Thursday morning.

The Daily Racing Form, which first reported the news, said Fulleffort has a chip in his left hind ankle.

“We’ll get that cleaned up and hopefully have a fresh horse for the fall,” Cox told FanDuel TV.

Cox still has two strong contenders in the race, Further Ado and Commandment, who are both 6-1 on the morning line. The trainer won the Derby in 2021 with Mandaloun but he didn’t know it until several months after the fact when Medina Spirit was disqualified after testing positive for a prohibited drug.

Fulleffort was coming off a strong victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on Turfway Park’s synthetic track. The colt has never run a race on dirt, but he’s bred to do so (sire Liam’s Map won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in 2015), and Cox had said he looked better training on it than he did earlier in his career.

Fulleffort’s withdrawal means Ocelli is now in the field in the No. 20 post position. Ocelli is winless in six starts, with his best showing a second in a maiden race last year. In his most recent race, the son of Connect finished third in the Wood Memorial. He will be ridden by Joe Ramos for trainer Whit Beckman.

Great White, who moved into the field Wednesday with the scratch of Silent Tactic, will now break from the No. 19 post.

There are two horses left on the also-eligible list, Robusta and Corona de Oro. If there are any other scratches before 9 a.m. EDT Friday, one or both will get into the field.