Saudi Arabia

Strikes carried out in southeastern province of Khost cause no casualties, governor’s office says.

Pakistan says it has carried out air strikes on 10 locations in Afghanistan used to store and launch drones, some of which were used in cross-border attacks.

The air strikes on Thursday were carried out as tensions grow between the former allies over attacks by armed groups in Pakistan, which triggered their worst fighting in years in February.

Islamabad accuses Kabul of harbouring fighters who stage cross-border attacks, but Afghanistan’s Taliban government denies harbouring anti-Pakistani armed groups and says the attacks are Pakistan’s internal problem.

The air strikes were “deliberate, precise, calibrated, and proportionate, and strictly limited to identified military objectives directly linked to the attempted attacks against Pakistan”, Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar wrote on X.

He condemned a “deliberate and unlawful incursion into Pakistan by drones” on Wednesday.

“This constitutes a blatant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and is a grave and unacceptable act of aggression,” he said.

The Pakistani air strikes were conducted in several areas of Khost province in southeastern Afghanistan, Mustaghfir Gurbaz, spokesperson for the Khost governor, said.

There were no casualties, ⁠he said.

An attack on a police facility in northwestern Pakistan last week that killed at least 21 people has reignited ⁠fighting between the countries after nearly three months of ⁠relative calm. A Pakistan Taliban faction claimed responsibility for the blast and subsequent gun battle.

On Monday, air strikes targeting three locations in northeastern Afghanistan killed three civilians in the Nurgal district of Kunar province, Afghan officials said. Islamabad said it killed 28 “terrorists”.

The escalation threatens mediation efforts by China, Turkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to broker a lasting peace between the two neighbours.

Relations between the former allies have been strained since the fighting in February, the worst for years.

The Houthis are attempting to push into the Kahboub Mountains after seizing much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast in a lightning offensive this month – an advance that experts say could dramatically shift the balance of power in the country’s war if successful.

The renewed fighting in recent months with forces aligned with Yemen’s Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government has brought an end to the relative calm that had largely held since 2022. In recent days, the conflict has moved into the rugged highlands overlooking the approaches to Bab al-Mandeb, one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

The strait connects the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, and its importance is only growing as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted by the Houthis’ main ally: Iran.

Experts said taking the high ground would help the Houthis defend the newly captured coastline and make it far harder for government forces to push them back. While the mountains may not necessarily be used as a launchpad for attacks on ships, controlling them would provide defensive depth and cover for Houthi positions closer to the coast, making missile and drone operations in the Red Sea easier to sustain and harder to disrupt.

The Houthis have said they do not intend to target United States shipping and attacks would be limited to vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. But the group has repeatedly attacked ships in the Red Sea in previous years, including vessels with no clear connection to its stated targets.

The Houthi advance has taken on added urgency after The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump came close to ordering air attacks against the Houthis on Sunday, only to call them off at the last minute. Britain, meanwhile, said it will support Saudi Arabia with defensive refuelling.

Why is Kahboub strategically important?

Kahboub, a mountainous region spanning parts of the Lahj and Taiz governorates in southern Yemen, derives much of its strategic importance from its proximity to Bab al-Mandeb. Some of its heights lie about 40km (25 miles) from the waterway, providing commanding views across a stretch of the Red Sea, through which a significant share of global maritime trade and millions of barrels of oil pass each day.

While that vantage point has considerable military value, experts said the mountains are unlikely to serve directly as a launchpad for attacks in the Red Sea. Their more immediate importance for the Houthis lies in securing the territory the group has already captured.

“The mountains are the natural wall that protects the Houthis’ rear on the coast. Controlling them would cut the coast off from the government-held south and place direct pressure on Lahj and, in the longer term, Aden,” Faozi Al-Goidi, a visiting fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.

Securing their rear would help the Houthis prevent government forces from attacking their coastal positions from behind or severing the routes connecting their newly captured territory. Until the high ground is secured, Houthi forces stationed along the Red Sea remain vulnerable to attacks from government-held areas to the south and east.

Capturing the elevated positions, therefore, would make Kahboub less important as a potential launchpad for maritime attacks than as a defensive shield for the Houthis’ military gains along the coast.

Ewa K Strzelecka, a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics, told Al Jazeera that controlling the coastline, Mayyun Island and the neighbouring highlands would give the Houthis “strategic resilience”.

“Holding the coastline, Mayyun and the adjacent highlands together would give the Houthis a much deeper and more defensible position around one of the world’s principal maritime chokepoints,” she said.

Those positions would allow the Houthis to move fighters, weapons and supplies along the coast with less risk of their routes being severed from behind.

“From the high ground, the Houthis could monitor movements along the coast, around Mayyun Island and towards the chokepoint while protecting missile, drone and potentially unmanned-boat infrastructure positioned farther inland,” Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, told Al Jazeera.

The battle is already proving slower than the Houthis’ rapid advance across the coastal plains. Footage circulated on X by the Taiz Military Axis Command’s media centre appears to show intense fighting between forces aligned with the Yemeni government, local fighters and the Houthis on mountain fronts. The footage could not be independently verified by Al Jazeera.

“This is not an easy battle,” said Mohammed al-Basha, an analyst and a former spokesperson for Yemen’s embassy in Washington. “The fighting is taking place across some of Yemen’s most unforgiving terrain where control of a single hilltop or mountain peak can come at a heavy cost.”

Could the Houthis isolate Taiz by controlling Kahboub?

Control of Kahboub could also place greater pressure on Taiz, a symbolically and strategically important city, as the Taiz governorate forms a bridge between the Houthi-held north and the government-held south and the Red Sea coast. Whoever controls it gains the upper hand in the movement of weapons and supplies between the interior and the southern port city of Aden. Losing it, therefore, could deal a serious blow to the government.

Murad Al-Arefi, an editor at the Sana’a Center, told Al Jazeera that taking Kahboub would “increase pressure on the southern and western approaches to Taiz” although he cautioned that it should not yet be seen as evidence of a broader attempt to encircle the city.

The immediate threat to the Taiz-Aden connection is less direct because Kahboub does not itself sit across the route.  “What matters is whether the Houthis can subsequently push farther east through Al-Wazi’iyah and towards the Al-Turbah-Lahj axis, which would place much greater pressure on the southern approaches to Taiz and potentially weaken its connection with Aden,” Strzelecka said.

A further advance, therefore, could leave government forces defending several mountain fronts simultaneously while relying on fewer secure routes to move troops, weapons and supplies, leaving Taiz increasingly exposed. One of Yemen’s largest population centres, Taiz became an important centre of resistance to the Houthis after they seized Sanaa in 2014, and was besieged by the rebel group for years. A major Houthi breakthrough there, therefore, would carry symbolic significance far beyond the territory captured.

What could it mean for Red Sea shipping?

Officially, the Houthis have said their current restrictions in Bab al-Mandeb would apply only to Saudi-linked shipping.

But during its previous Red Sea campaign, the group struck or endangered ships with no clear connection to Israel – their purported target during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza – raising questions about how narrowly any new restrictions would be applied. Seizing the Kahboub Mountains would further strengthen the Houthis’ position by helping them secure the coastline overlooking Bab al-Mandeb and making it harder for their opponents to push them back.

Simon Mabon, a professor of international relations at Lancaster University, told Al Jazeera that the offensive showed the Houthis using their momentum to capture more territory, weaken their opponents and “dominate Yemen further”.

“This is the Houthis trying to seize more ground and diminish the capacity of their enemies while increasing their strategic ability to close Bab al-Mandeb,” Mabon said.

Leaders of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are set to meet United States President Donald Trump in New York on Tuesday, as the US-Israel war on Iran nears seven months.

The meeting, to be held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), brings together countries that have borne much of the fallout from a war they did not start.

Since the war began on February 28, Iran has repeatedly struck US bases across the Middle East as well as airports, energy facilities and hotels. The war has particularly hit the Gulf nations hard, as their oil and gas exports – the mainstay of their economies – have been disrupted, causing a global energy crisis.

A June memorandum of understanding (MoU) briefly raised hopes of an end to the war, but it collapsed last month amid disputes over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed.

These talks come as Trump says he faces a “big decision” on the war, and as Iran’s president and foreign minister are also in New York for the UNGA.

So what is on the table and what might come out of the talks? Here is all you need to know:

What do we know about the GCC-Trump meeting?

Trump is set to meet the leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which form the GCC, on the sidelines of the UNGA.

Trump told US media outlet Axios on Thursday that he wanted to meet the GCC leaders as he faced a “big decision” on the war and wanted to speak with them directly.

Experts say there are two interconnected issues – the US-Israel war on Iran and the conflict between Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government forces in Yemen.

What do the GCC countries want from the meeting?

Broadly, experts say, the GCC nations share a common goal for the meeting.

The GCC has “shared positions on the main principles of regional security and de-escalation”, Luciano Zaccara, a researcher with the New Ground Research think tank in Doha, Qatar, told Al Jazeera.

“With Trump recently threatening to ‘wipe out’ Iran, I expect the six GCC states, or at least most of them, to convey to the US president their grave concerns about the likely consequences of another round of intense US military strikes on Iran,” Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, told Al Jazeera.

“They will probably seek to underscore their own vulnerabilities to a renewed cycle of all-out fighting between the United States and Iran,” he said, adding that they will try to persuade Trump into making certain concessions to Tehran.

Cafiero said they will look to develop an arrangement that builds on the MoU and which “offers the most viable path toward winding down the crisis”.

Chief among their common concerns is freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, according to Ahmed Helal, managing director for the Gulf region at The Asia Group.

‘Divergent’ goals

Despite common goals, the Gulf states have still experienced “divergent” outcomes from the war and will also look to persuade Trump to address their particular predicaments, Helal said.

The UAE, he explained, has been able to keep exporting oil by pipeline to its port of Fujairah, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, although not at the volumes it would like.

But fellow GCC member Qatar, whose gas exports depend on the strait, has seen its LNG shipments severely curtailed and wants to avoid any renewed escalation that could see its energy infrastructure targeted again, Helal said.

Speaking at an event in New York, US, on Sunday, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani described the economic fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran as an “earthquake”.

Saudi Arabia has another problem, as it is now under “enormous pressure” as the Houthis gain ground in Yemen, and has been “intensifying their lobbying” for US strikes on the group, he said.

What does Trump want from the meeting?

Predicting what the US president plans has been difficult since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran, experts say.

“It could be possible that the US is expecting a more direct GCC engagement against Iran in exchange for a direct US intervention to stop the Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia, but without the GCC leaving the main role in defending themselves”, Zaccara told Al Jazeera.

“Regarding Iran, Trump has not ruled out another major military escalation. At the same time, the administration seems to be open to exploring diplomatic options,” he said, adding there are rumours of a possible indirect US-Iran meeting on the sidelines before Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s speech on Wednesday.

Helal said the administration’s focus is domestic, with the midterm elections weeks away and Trump’s approval ratings at a record low; there is “immense pressure” to lower petrol prices.

While Trump has threatened further military action, he remains politically sensitive to an “escalatory ladder” that could spike oil prices, Helal said.

The talks are unlikely to produce a breakthrough, he added, with the best-case scenario an agreement to return to negotiations potentially brokered by Qatar or Pakistan.

Ministers demand an end to maritime shipping attacks and urge Iran to stop arming the Yemeni group.

The foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations have condemned what they called “unacceptable continued strikes” by Yemen’s Houthis against Saudi Arabia.

The ministers issued the statement on Monday following an informal meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

“We condemn in the strongest terms the unacceptable continued strikes carried out by the Houthis in Yemen and against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” the ministers of the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States said in the statement.

The ministers urged the Houthis “to immediately cease all military actions, all threats and attacks against civilian shipping, and to return to the political process in good faith”.

They also called on Iran to stop arming and supporting the group, saying Tehran is in violation of past UN Security Council resolutions. They added that Iran’s backing of the Houthis constituted a dangerous pattern of escalation that risked undermining international trade and creating global instability.

The latest escalation in the Arab region’s most impoverished nation follows a period of relative calm that had largely held since the UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022 between the Iran-aligned group and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.

Fighting is intensifying between Yemen’s Ansarullah Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

For the first time since a ceasefire in 2022, the Houthis fired missiles towards the capital, Riyadh.

The Iran-backed group says it will respond to any escalation with an escalation of its own.

The stand-off highlights the historic enmity between the two sides.

But it also risks dragging the wider region into conflict. What will it take to stop the attacks?

Presenter: Rob Matheson

Guests:

Nawaf Obaid – senior research fellow at King’s College London and former adviser to the Saudi government

Muhanad Seloom – non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs

Ibrahim Jalal – Yemeni affairs analyst who specialises in regional security and armed groups

Fidan highlights Turkiye’s readiness to assist Saudi Arabia militarily, as Houthi attacks escalate in Yemen.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has said that Saudi Arabia may have unmet military needs from the attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels and that Turkiye would consider how to support the kingdom as part of a trilateral defence pact.

Speaking to Turkish broadcaster NTV on Friday, Fidan said it was unacceptable for Saudi Arabia to be dragged into the US-Iran war, adding that Riyadh had no desire to join the conflict.

He added that proposals had been conveyed to all sides in an effort to end the fighting, without further elaborating.

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia continue trading attacks in an escalating war in Yemen, as the Houthis press gains that have brought large stretches of the Red Sea coast, including the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, under their control.

Pakistan has made a similar pledge to defend Saudi Arabia under the defence pact.

Lieutenant-General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, a spokesperson for Pakistan’s military, told Arab News on Thursday that Islamabad would defend Saudi Arabia “to any extent”, including “physically”, though he did not say whether Riyadh had asked for more Pakistani troops.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office has said no military response is currently under discussion under the pact, adding that Islamabad would act “when time comes”.

The trilateral agreement, known as the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, was signed on August 7 in Mecca by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The three countries formally named the arrangement the Mecca Defence Alliance on August 31, after officials meeting in Istanbul agreed to set up a secretariat in Riyadh, to be headed initially by a Pakistani secretary-general.

Its founding principle is that an armed attack against any one of the three states will be treated as an attack against all three.

Fidan said at the time the alliance was built on “respecting the sovereignty of other states, territorial integrity and not intervening in internal affairs”, and remained open to other countries joining.

Analysts have questioned how much substance lies behind the pact so far, noting it lacks the integrated command structure and standing forces that underpin NATO.

Its institutional shape, including how the mutual defence clause would actually be triggered, remains unclear.

The trilateral pact was struck as Gulf states grow increasingly concerned about being pulled into the wider US-Iran war, which has continued for more than six months since Washington and Israel first struck Iran in February.

This was the first time an alert was sounded in Riyadh since an escalation between the Houthis in Yemen and the Saudis.

Saudi-led coalition forces fighting Yemen’s Houthis have said that the Iran-backed group fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh at dawn before it was intercepted and destroyed.

“The Houthis also attempted to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in Bisha, Taif, Farasan and Yanbu,” coalition forces spokesman Major-General Turki al-Maliki wrote on X on Saturday, adding that the attacks were thwarted by the Gulf monarchy’s air defences.

Saudi Arabia warned of a “hostile aerial threat” and issued a string of emergency alerts across the kingdom overnight on Friday.

On Saturday, at least one explosion was heard in Riyadh, with residents near the airport saying they saw a large plume of black smoke later in the morning. Saudi authorities reported no casualties or damage.

It was the first air raid alert sounded in Riyadh since an escalation in fighting with the Houthis in Yemen began in July.

The Saudi spokesman said that the Houthis are escalating their attempts to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in the capital. He also affirmed the coalition command’s right to take “appropriate” action to deter the Houthis, in accordance with international humanitarian law.

Earlier on Saturday, Houthi fighters in Yemen said they attacked “sensitive” sites in Riyadh as well as an Aramco oil facility in the western coastal city of Yanbu, according to a statement shared by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree.

Saree said the Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia with cruise and ballistic missiles as well as drones.

“You could see that the Houthis are determining the timelines and the levels of the escalation,” Yasmeen al-Eryani, executive director for knowledge production at the Sana’a Center think tank, told Al Jazeera. “So, depending on the current situation, it seems that the Houthis are the ones in control,” she added.

Meanwhile, on the ground in Yemen, the armed forces of the Saudi-backed internationally recognised government said their fighters thwarted a Houthi infiltration attempt in the al-Fuliahan sector in southern Marib on Saturday, killing 12 Houthi fighters and injuring others.

The army also said 13 Yemeni soldiers were killed in two days of clashes with Houthi forces in the southwestern provinces of Taiz and Lahj.

Renewed clashes are taking place in Yemen’s Marib, Taiz, Lahj, al-Jawf and al-Bayda as part of a military escalation that began in early July – the most intense since the relative calm following an April 2022 truce.

Al-Eryani told Al Jazeera that military options against the Houthis are currently limited because much of the fighting is taking place in mountainous terrain that is difficult for opposing forces to access and hold.

For now, she said, containing the group may be a more realistic option than defeating it militarily. “Without controlling the peaks that are parallel to the coast, you will not be able to control the coast,” said al-Eryani.

Thousands take to the streets in support of Houthis in Sanaa, Trump extends sanctions on Iran.

The war in Yemen intensifies with mounting clashes and reciprocal attacks between Saudi forces and the Houthis.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels have said Saudi Arabia carried out 26 strikes against areas under the group’s control in the past 24 hours, as the two sides continue trading attacks amid an escalating war in Yemen, according to the AFP news agency.

On Friday, the group claimed Saudi strikes on Houthi-held territory had reached 300 over the past week alone, hitting positions across the areas it controls, AFP reported.

Yemen’s government, backed by Saudi Arabia, said on Friday its forces had killed 30 Houthi rebels and wounded more than 60 in clashes in the al-Wazi’iyah district of Taiz province, one of several fronts where combat has picked up this week.

The exchange has come on the heels of a widening escalation of fighting in Yemen between the government’s military and the Houthi fighters.

Tens of thousands marched through Sanaa on Friday in a show of support for the Iran-backed Houthis and against Saudi Arabia, as the rebels press gains that have brought large stretches of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait, under their control.

Earlier this week, the intensifying attacks between the Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels killed at least five people, including three children, according to reports from both sides.

Saudi Arabia said one person was killed in the Taif governorate after a Houthi drone was intercepted, while Houthi-linked media reported deaths from Saudi strikes in Taiz and the town of Abs.

The escalation has drawn in Washington, though reluctantly.

US officials met Houthi representatives at the US embassy in the Omani capital, Muscat, over the weekend after the group’s rapid territorial gains raised concern over shipping through Bab al-Mandeb, a vital corridor for global trade.

The Houthis reportedly assured Washington that vessels not linked to Saudi Arabia would not be targeted.

Despite appeals from Riyadh for US President Donald Trump to strike the Houthis directly, Washington has so far held back, wary of opening a new front while still fighting a costly war with Iran.

Meanwhile, European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Friday the bloc’s Red Sea naval mission, Operation Aspides, had raised its alert level as the situation in the region worsened, the Reuters news agency reported.

“Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are unacceptable and sabotage the global economy,” Kallas said in a post on X.

She added that she had spoken with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud about diplomatic efforts to end the fighting in Yemen and restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Report says ‘reasonable grounds’ US was behind the deadly strike against a school in Minab in February.

Intensifying attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis have reportedly killed at least five people in total, including three children.

At least one person – a Yemeni resident in Saudi Arabia – was killed, and two others were injured after a Houthi drone was intercepted in Saudi Arabia’s southwestern governorate of Taif on Thursday, according to the kingdom’s civil defence agency.

It is the first death announced in Saudi Arabia this month since Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthis intensified their attacks.

In Yemen on Thursday, the Houthis said “Saudi enemy warplanes targeted three telecommunications towers” in Taiz province.

One civilian was killed in Taiz and another injured in strikes on the town of Abs, Yemen, said Houthi-linked Almasirah television.

Houthi-backed media later reported that “three children were killed and several Yemeni nationals were injured in strikes by the Saudi-backed mercenaries”, a reference to the country’s internationally recognised government forces.

Houthis reject claim they attacked Mecca

The escalation comes as Saudi Arabia said a drone was launched by the Houthis towards Mecca before being intercepted and destroyed.

“It’s a heinous lie,” Houthi leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi said in a live televised address on Thursday, calling Saudi claims that his group would target Islam’s holiest city “a great propaganda”.

“The sanctity of Mecca is particularly important to the people of Yemen,” he said while accusing Saudi Arabia of “weaponising lies” to serve its war objectives against the Houthis.

Reporting from the Yemeni capital Sanaa, Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry said: “Al-Houthi’s speech is not just directed towards the Yemeni people; it is directed to the world to set the record straight that the Houthis did not target the holy city of Mecca, as the Saudis claim.”

In his address, al-Houthi also said Saudi Arabia had initiated the latest round of conflict in Yemen and that Houthi forces are acting defensively.

Meanwhile, Rashad al-Alimi, the head of Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, said that Houthi forces are suffering heavy blows on the fronts in Taiz, Marib, Lahj, al-Jawf, Hajjah, al-Bayda al-Dhale.

In a meeting with the French ambassador to Yemen, al-Alimi said that gains made by the Houthis along the Red Sea coast are temporary, the state-run Saba news agency reported.

Aggression against Mecca ‘a condemned act’

Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, said in a statement on X on Thursday that any aggression against Islamic holy sites, particularly Mecca, “is a condemned act”.

But he added that “a mere claim” of intercepting a drone “en route to Mecca” is not enough to accuse the Houthis of the act.

“Nor should we forget that our region has witnessed numerous instances of ‘false flag’ operations, particularly in recent months,” Baghaei said while pointing at Israel.

Meanwhile, China ⁠has privately asked Iranian officials to help rein in the ⁠Houthis after Saudi Arabia appealed to Beijing following recent Houthi attacks, anonymous sources in Iran told the Reuters news agency.

Beijing publicly called for restraint, dialogue and the restoration of safe navigation, but its private message went further than that, Reuters reported.

The escalation is also threatening to draw in other regional actors – specifically Saudi defence partners Pakistan and Turkiye, which signed a joint defence agreement with the kingdom last month.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said the time has come to implement the Mecca agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye due to recent Houthi attacks.

Asif’s comments to Pakistani media on Thursday were made as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he’d held a phone conversation with Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir to discuss “regional developments”.

President Donald Trump says the United States is “hopefully toward the end” of its war with Iran, claiming that he has directly spoken to officials in Tehran, raising the prospect of renewed diplomacy even as fighting has erupted in Yemen.

However, there is still no confirmation from Tehran that direct negotiations with Washington have resumed. Just a day earlier, a senior Iranian official publicly rejected talks unless Iran’s conditions were met. Tehran, which has, in effect, closed the Strait of Hormuz, has been demanding that the US honour the terms of the deal signed in June.

Trump’s comments come as the conflict has expanded into Yemen, putting increasing pressure on global energy supplies amid an Iran-imposed blockade of the strait through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes. Oil prices crossed $100 per barrel last week and continue to rise as Iran-linked Houthis have damaged Saudi oil installations amid renewed fighting.

So, what is the latest on the diplomatic front, and will the war end soon?

What is Trump saying?

“Well, hopefully we are toward the end of the war,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “They want to make a deal. We’ll see how that works out.”

When asked by a reporter whether he had recently heard from the Iranian side, Trump said he had spoken with them “directly”.

The comments come after Trump on Monday said he was open to talks, and added that Iran “wants to make a deal, quickly and badly” and that he would decide whether Washington would engage with Tehran.

However, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, accused Trump of sending “mixed signals” and said “no talks until Iran’s conditions are met”.

Trump’s claim that he has heard from Iran “directly” is significant because negotiations between Washington and Tehran have repeatedly depended on intermediaries, including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman. This is not the first time that Trump has claimed direct communication with Iran.

Former Iranian diplomat Abbas Khameyar dismissed Trump’s claims. “I don’t think there has been any additional effort beyond what was already under way in recent weeks,” he told Al Jazeera.

There is a US narrative, he stated, “with tweets and statements by President Trump claiming that the Iranians are calling, pleading and asking for a meeting. But nobody believes this, and matters have not unfolded in that way.”

He added that Iran’s diplomatic activity has not moved beyond the framework already in place in recent weeks, centred on securing enforcement of the existing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) rather than opening new negotiations.

What is the latest on the US-Iran diplomacy front?

On Thursday, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency reported that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a telephone call with Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has been leading the high-stakes diplomatic and mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran.

Araghchi held the phone call while still in Beijing, during which they discussed and consulted on the latest regional developments and issues of mutual interest, according to Tasnim.

A day earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on the US and Iran to exercise restraint and “reopen the Strait of Hormuz at an early date”, following his meeting with Araghchi in Beijing.

Araghchi, in a statement after the meeting, said that Tehran seeks “the restoration of calm to the region and friendly and peaceful relations with our neighbours”.

“In this regard we have begun dialogue with the countries of the region,” he added.

In a post on X, Araghchi described consultations with Chinese officials as “successful”, saying Tehran values the strategic partnership it has built with Beijing.

“Today’s decisions will decide the future strategic balance in the region, with immeasurable knock-on effects,” Araghchi said on Thursday.

China has avoided direct involvement in the war, but President Xi Jinping, at the BRICS summit in New Delhi over the weekend, offered Beijing’s willingness to play a role in peace efforts. He called on BRICS nations to advance peace in the Middle East.

Huiyao Wang, president of the Center For China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, says China’s role in international affairs is increasing in importance during the current geopolitical turmoil.

“China has an enormous role to exercise if needed. So the mere fact that the two fighting parties have no end in sight shows the need for a big guarantor to come in … I think the US wants to end this war and they also need China’s help,” Wang told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, US media outlet Axios is reporting that Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week to discuss the conflict, which has hugely affected oil exports from the Middle Eastern countries.

Diplomatic efforts have repeatedly stalled since a Pakistan-brokered MoU signed by Washington and Tehran collapsed last month, as the two sides accused each other of violating their commitments.

The MoU was supposed to kick-start a 60-day period for peace talks between the warring sides and included provisions for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has become a major flashpoint in the war.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said earlier this month that Tehran would return to the agreement if Washington did the same.

What do we know about the Houthi meeting with US officials?

US officials met representatives of Yemen’s Houthi movement at the US embassy in Muscat over the weekend, five sources told Reuters news agency. Oman helped organise the meeting.

The Houthis told US officials they did not intend to attack American vessels and remained committed to their 2025 ceasefire with Washington, according to two sources.

One source said they also pledged not to target Israeli or other commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi ships.

The conflict had largely subsided in recent years after a 2022 ceasefire between the Saudi-backed government and the Iran-aligned Houthis, but reignited in July.

In recent weeks, the Houthis have seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline to cement their grip on the key Bab al-Mandeb strait – a vital maritime route connecting Asia with Europe – while declaring a blockade on Saudi shipping.

The strategic waterway is a critical maritime corridor linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and has become an alternative shipping route as the US war against Iran choked the Strait of Hormuz.

On September 12, 2026, United States President Donald Trump stood in Dublin alongside Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin and said in a cool tone that the Houthis “called us, and they don’t want to fight us”, adding that the group was “allowing ships to pass” and that the situation would “work out very well”.

His remarks came just as Houthi forces had completed their takeover of the coastal town of Dhubab and Perim (Mayyun) Island, which divides the Bab al-Mandeb strait into two shipping channels, after seizing the strategic port of Mocha. This gave them a direct presence at the entrance to one of the world’s most important waterways.

Trump was speaking against the backdrop of a Houthi announcement that they would blockade Saudi oil supplies to Asia and Saudi commercial shipping, signalling the collapse of the traditional “security-for-oil” formula.

What is happening at Bab al-Mandeb is not an isolated event, but the latest in a long series of US retreats from security commitments that for decades underpinned the “security-for-oil” relationship between Washington and the Gulf states.

This is not a passing political position, but a profound shift in the regional security landscape: the United States is choosing not to intervene militarily against an armed group designated as terrorist that controls one of the world’s most important straits and whose actions go beyond the logic of conventional deterrence.

Trump’s remarks: Substance and strategic context

In Dublin, Trump said the Houthis had contacted the US administration seeking to avoid confrontation with Washington. He said they were “allowing most ships to pass” and that the problem was limited to “one country”, which he did not name – an apparent reference to Saudi Arabia – promising to “take care of fixing that”.

He also said the United States had “tight control” over the Strait of Hormuz and that about 25 ships were passing through it each day on average, despite maritime sources denying this.

On the ground, Trump’s remarks suggested that the Houthis remain wary of US military force and American deterrence, which has already put considerable pressure on their regional backer, Iran. They were therefore prepared to bargain, just as they accepted US conditions in 2025.

At the same time, Trump’s directives – as relayed by US military and civilian officials – revealed a clear hierarchy of priorities: Iran as the principal threat, securing the Strait of Hormuz as the vital artery for oil and gas flows, and avoiding another military front in Yemen.

This reflects a narrow strategic logic. From Washington’s perspective, Bab al-Mandeb is less vital to American oil interests than to flows towards China and other Asian markets that compete with the US economy. And because Trump believes the Houthis “are not targeting American ships”, direct intervention would, in his view, place an unjustified additional burden on US forces already exhausted by the Iranian front.

Trump’s position also cannot be separated from domestic politics. The US-Iran war has eroded his political support after he promised to keep the United States out of Middle Eastern wars.

According to The Los Angeles Times, Trump told Fox News that he “might not do it because of the elections”, referring to avoiding further military escalation before the congressional elections. Opening a new front in Yemen could further complicate matters for Republicans in closely contested House and Senate races.

Meanwhile, Saudi circles denied an Axios report claiming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had called Trump twice on the eve of the Houthi takeover of the coast on September 10, urging him to strike the Houthis, and that Trump had refused.

The sources pointed to Axios’s own July 29 report on Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman’s visit to Washington, which said he had told the US vice president that the kingdom could manage the confrontation with the Houthis itself and did not need US military intervention. They regarded the two accounts as contradictions in the reporting of Axios’s Barak Ravid.

Observers in Riyadh see the restrained US position as part of a broader policy: the administration currently has no intention of taking direct military action against the Houthis. At the same time, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, travelled to Riyadh for urgent coordination talks with Prince Mohammed, indicating that Washington is seeking to “intensify its support” for Saudi Arabia while avoiding direct military involvement – a formula well understood in Riyadh.

Trump sought to reassure Saudi concerns by describing the crown prince as a “good friend” and promising that “everything will work out very well”. But he offered no specific military commitment, and the White House announced no explicit guarantees to protect Saudi energy infrastructure or maritime routes.

This reluctance also follows a series of US decisions that have demonstrated a growing retreat from its security commitments in the Gulf. During his first term, Trump did not respond to the 2019 Aramco attack, for which the Houthis claimed responsibility but which was believed to have originated from Iraqi factions to the north. The attack temporarily knocked out half of Saudi oil supplies.

In February 2026, the United States joined Israel in attacking Iran without consulting its Gulf allies and has since faced growing difficulties defending them against Iranian attacks. US forces are now heavily preoccupied around the Strait of Hormuz, limiting their ability to respond to another front in Yemen.

Paradoxically, Washington, now bogged down in Hormuz, appears to need Saudi help in containing Iranian disruption at Bab al-Mandeb, rather than the other way round.

Since the war began on February 28, Riyadh has resisted all US pressure to become involved in a confrontation with Iran for two reasons. First, it believes such pressure carries an implicit aim of portraying the Saudi front as part of the Israeli front. Second, it was not consulted over the launch of the war and is not prepared to be worn down in a conflict serving Israeli objectives.

The erosion of the US umbrella and the fate of the ‘security-for-oil’ formula

Since the 1970s, the US-Gulf relationship has rested on a clear but implicit bargain: the United States provides a security umbrella protecting the Gulf states and energy routes, while the Gulf states ensure a steady flow of oil to the global economy at reasonable prices.

This was more than a bilateral understanding between Riyadh and Washington. Gulf security meant oil security, and oil security meant the security of the Western economy, making the bargain a pillar of the international energy system for decades.

Today, there are mounting signs that this formula is beginning to collapse.

First, strategic abandonment: Trump’s refusal to defend Bab al-Mandeb, and his response to the Houthis’ request that the US stay out of the conflict in return for allowing American ships to pass – effectively a political deal – marks a watershed. For the first time, the United States is clearly hesitating to defend energy security and a pivotal ally against a direct threat to global energy infrastructure. This is not temporary hesitation, but a redefinition of the US commitment.

Second, the redirection of priorities: Washington’s focus on the Strait of Hormuz and avoidance of a front in Yemen point to a new approach: not a comprehensive security umbrella, but selective protection of direct US interests. Hormuz matters because it carries Gulf oil to markets on which the US economy depends, while Bab al-Mandeb – from Trump’s perspective – primarily serves exports to China and Asia, interests Washington does not consider worth further military investment.

Third, military exhaustion: the US military is exhausted by the war with Iran and its stocks of advanced interceptor missiles have been depleted. This is structural rather than temporary, reflecting a growing inability to manage multiple fronts.

Fourth, domestic politics: the erosion of Trump’s political support because of the Iran war makes further military expansion politically costly. What was once a guarantee of Gulf security – US power – has become hostage to domestic electoral calculations.

Does this mean the end of the “security-for-oil” formula? Not necessarily. But it does point to a fundamental shift from a bilateral US-Gulf arrangement to a more complex, multilateral one.

The US umbrella has not disappeared, but it has contracted. The United States still maintains forces in the region and remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, but its commitment is no longer comprehensive or unconditional.

Saudi strategic hedging

For years, Riyadh has been pursuing alternatives through strategic hedging. Its announcement of a 14-state multinational defensive maritime alliance – including Turkiye, Pakistan, Egypt, Sudan and Djibouti – is an attempt to fill the US security vacuum, while US or European naval forces are also deployed around the strait as part of similar Western coalitions.

Saudi Arabia is also strengthening its air and missile defences, developing its naval capabilities and deepening defence ties with countries including Turkiye and Pakistan. These efforts have included the “Strategic Mutual Defence Alliance” with Pakistan and the Mecca alliance with Turkiye and Pakistan in August 2026.

What we are witnessing is not the end of the US umbrella, but its shift from a “comprehensive guarantee” to “conditional and limited support”, forcing Gulf states to rethink their collective security.

The Saudi position on industrialised countries’ disregard for supply security

Saudi Arabia now faces one of its most serious security challenges: the Houthis control Bab al-Mandeb, are choking Saudi trade and have already launched drone and missile attacks towards Saudi territory.

Saudi oil exports to Asia fell from around 3.4 million barrels a day in June to just 128,000 in August, before partially recovering to 700,000 this month. Oil prices have meanwhile exceeded $107 a barrel, while the price of a gallon of petrol in the United States has risen by 35 percent.

The real danger is the simultaneous disruption of two maritime chokepoints: Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies pass, is almost closed because of the US-Iran war, while Bab al-Mandeb, which accounts for 10-12 percent of global oil, is under Houthi control. Closing both could block about a quarter of global supplies.

Even without complete closure, the continuing threat creates a permanent “risk premium” on prices, according to economic analysts. Although Saudi Arabia benefits in the short term from higher prices, it is strategically harmed by instability because Vision 2030 depends on foreign investment, tourism and stability, not temporary wartime oil revenues.

Riyadh has long played a leading role in stabilising oil markets, frequently using its position as a swing producer to limit volatility. But amid the indifference of industrialised countries to supply security and the threats facing energy sources and routes, Saudi Arabia cannot put aside the dangers to its own security, sovereignty and people for countries that disregard the geopolitics of energy.

For this reason, Saudi Arabia has previously declared that it “will not bear responsibility for any disruptions or shortages in global oil supplies” resulting from Houthi attacks on its oil facilities.

This is more than a warning. It redefines the implicit social contract with its allies: Saudi Arabia is no longer prepared to act as guarantor of last resort for global energy security without something in return.

Its message is that the international community – particularly the major industrialised countries that benefit from oil flows – must share responsibility for protecting maritime routes, rather than leaving Riyadh to bear the cost alone.

‘Collective responsibility’ as a new security doctrine

The Saudi Ministry of Defence reinforced this approach in its statement on the proposed maritime alliance, stressing that “the security of international maritime routes is a collective responsibility that requires effective and sustainable international partnership”.

This is more than a diplomatic appeal. It amounts to a reformulation of the regional security contract: Saudi Arabia is not asking industrialised countries to defend Saudi interests, but to help protect their own interest in the continued flow of oil on which their economies depend.

In July 2026, Saudi Arabia announced a “Multinational Defensive Maritime Alliance” of 14 founding states: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkiye, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia.

At least 43 countries and organisations attended the founding meeting in Riyadh. The alliance may mark an important turning point, reflecting an implicit Saudi acknowledgement that the US umbrella is no longer sufficient and that Riyadh must build its own security capabilities with regional allies.

US exposure: A deeper strategic reading

Trump’s statements downplaying the Houthi takeover of Bab al-Mandeb and his refusal to intervene reflect not only a political decision, but a structural weakness in US deterrence.

The United States is unable to manage multiple fronts. Its concentration around the Strait of Hormuz limits its ability to respond in Yemen; fighting has depleted stocks of advanced interceptor missiles; and the unpopularity of the war and approaching congressional elections constrain its freedom of action.

From the perspective of countries in the region, the US military presence in the Gulf is no longer an unconditional security guarantee. The question of whether allies could be abandoned again is pushing decision-makers from Riyadh to Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Doha to diversify their security and defence partnerships.

That means deeper defence ties with Turkiye and Pakistan, stronger air and missile defences and naval capabilities, maintaining open channels and seeking risk-reducing understandings with regional powers including Iran, and multinational maritime alliances to protect navigation.

But these alternatives have limits. Can any regional alliance fully compensate for the absence of a major power such as the United States when confronting threats on the scale of Iran and its proxies? US intelligence, logistical and interception capabilities have no regional equivalent, leaving a security gap that cannot quickly be filled.

The new regional order: Towards multipolarity

What we are witnessing is not merely a passing security crisis, but the emergence of a new regional order marked by the decline of unilateral US dominance. The United States is no longer the sole security power in the Gulf, as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkiye and Iran gain weight and Gulf states diversify their partnerships and seek more collective regional security arrangements.

Trump’s response to the Houthi takeover of Bab al-Mandeb is therefore not simply a political position, but a sign of a tectonic shift in the regional security order. The “security-for-oil” formula that governed US-Gulf relations for decades has not formally ended, but it no longer provides the guarantees on which it was built. The US security umbrella remains, but it has become selective, conditional and subject to domestic US calculations unrelated to the interests of the Gulf states.

Saudi Arabia, caught between the hammer of the Houthis at Bab al-Mandeb and the anvil of Iran at the Strait of Hormuz, is pursuing a different approach: insisting that protection of maritime routes become a “collective responsibility” and that it should no longer bear alone the cost of protecting the interests of industrialised countries dependent on its oil.

This position – backed by the announcement of a multinational maritime alliance – marks the beginning of a redefinition of the regional security contract, although significant questions remain over whether ambition can be translated into capability.

Oil prices above $107 a barrel may be only an early sign of what lies ahead. If US exposure continues and regional understandings guaranteeing freedom of navigation remain out of reach, the world could face an energy crisis comparable to those of the 1970s, but without a US security umbrella ready to contain it.

Bab al-Mandeb is therefore more than a maritime strait. It reflects the end of one era and the beginning of another, in which Gulf security is no longer an American gift but a collective responsibility still searching for new arrangements.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, appears to favour a combination of deterrence and avoiding all-out war. Rather than sliding into open-ended attrition, it seeks to support national allies on the ground, enable the Yemeni state to restore its sovereignty, contain the logic of the militia and build a national doctrine that limits external penetration.

Yemen’s stability is no longer a purely Yemeni matter, but a first line of defence for the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb and for the cohesion of the Arab sphere, with Riyadh and Cairo remaining central pillars in confronting projects of disintegration and fragmentation.

Within this emerging order, the Saudi-Egyptian partnership is becoming a cornerstone of regional security. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s expected visit to Cairo and summit with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi give practical expression to the principle of “collective responsibility”.

Riyadh and Cairo recognise that the security of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb is not a local matter: it is vital to the Suez Canal and Egyptian economy, and forms strategic and security depth for Saudi Arabia.

By coordinating diplomatic and military action, supporting the full liberation of Yemen and containing the reach of the militias, the two countries are helping shape an autonomous regional security order intended to fill the vacuums left by retreating international powers, protect international navigation and confront shared threats from a position of parity and capacity.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Saudi Arabia has intensified air strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen as the Iran backed group expands its territorial gains along the Red Sea coast, opening a new front in the wider Middle East war and adding pressure to already disrupted global energy supplies.

The Houthis have swept through several Yemeni towns and seized islands near the Bab el Mandeb Strait, a strategically important maritime route connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The group has also released footage showing its fighters capturing armoured vehicles from Saudi backed forces.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree claimed that the group had shot down a Saudi F 15 fighter jet and said Saudi Arabia had conducted as many as 450 air strikes in Yemen during the week. Saudi authorities have not confirmed the aircraft claim, while officials supporting the internationally recognised Yemeni government have acknowledged that Saudi and allied forces are carrying out strikes against Houthi positions.

Saudi Arabia faces growing security pressure

The escalation has brought the conflict closer to Saudi territory. The Houthis have repeatedly launched attacks toward Saudi Arabia over the past week, prompting alarms in cities across the kingdom’s south and west.

Saudi Arabia said its air defenses intercepted a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered restricted airspace over the holy city. Riyadh described the incident as a serious escalation because of the threat to religious sites. The Houthis denied targeting Mecca and accused Saudi Arabia of using the incident for propaganda.

The United States has also tightened its travel warning for Saudi Arabia, barring government employees from travelling within 20 miles of the Yemen border.

The latest escalation marks a sharp deterioration after several years in which the Saudi led conflict in Yemen had largely quietened under a ceasefire. The Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in July and resumed attacks on areas in the kingdom before making rapid gains against forces aligned with the Saudi backed Yemeni government.

Energy markets face another shock

The renewed fighting is particularly significant because global energy markets are already under pressure from disruptions caused by the wider war involving Iran.

An attack blamed on Iran aligned fighters in Iraq last week knocked out Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline, an important route that allows the kingdom to move oil without relying entirely on the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders estimate that a prolonged closure of the pipeline could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. Saudi Arabia has not given a timetable for restoring operations, although U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil should begin flowing through the pipeline within days.

Brent crude was trading around $108 a barrel on Wednesday, close to its highest level since May. The average U.S. retail diesel price also reached a record above $6.30 a gallon.

The simultaneous disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia’s alternative export infrastructure increases the vulnerability of global energy markets to further regional escalation.

Washington faces another difficult choice

The developments also create a new challenge for the United States.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with President Donald Trump last week seeking additional military support. So far, U.S. assistance has been limited to intelligence support.

The United States previously conducted a two month bombing campaign against the Houthis in 2025 before Trump announced a ceasefire with the group.

Washington now faces competing pressures. Greater support for Saudi Arabia could help contain the Houthi advance and protect regional energy infrastructure, but deeper military involvement could also expand the U.S. role in another theatre of the Middle East war.

What’s next

The immediate concern is whether the Houthi advance can be contained before the fighting causes further disruption to Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes.

For Saudi Arabia, the challenge is to push back against the Houthis while preventing the conflict from developing into a broader regional confrontation.

For global markets, the key issue will be whether disruptions to Saudi oil infrastructure remain temporary. Continued attacks on energy facilities or shipping routes could place additional pressure on already strained supplies.

The developments in Yemen therefore carry consequences well beyond the country’s existing conflict. The combination of Houthi territorial gains, pressure on Saudi Arabia and disruption to major energy routes has created another potential source of instability for the global oil market.

With information from Reuters.

WASHINGTON — A bold military push by Iran and its proxies to create a choke hold on global oil supplies has once again caught the Trump administration off guard, threatening a market shock and a steep political backlash in the U.S. midterm elections.

A drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s most crucial pipeline, which siphons crude oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, has led to the line’s closure, potentially taking 4% of the world’s supply off the market.

And a lightning advance by Iran-backed Houthi rebels along Yemen’s Red Sea coast threatens commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, second only to Hormuz in its importance to regional shipping.

The strikes put the Trump administration in a newly precarious position less than two months until the November midterms. President Trump’s military advisors have warned him that any retaliation could lead to a further depletion of critically low U.S. munition stockpiles, endanger American personnel in the field and risk escalation that could spiral out of Washington’s control.

A semi prepares for departure from a Pilot fuel station Monday in Buda, Texas.

(Brandon Bell / Getty Images)

On Tuesday, the global price of oil topped $107 a barrel — the first time in U.S. campaign history that an incumbent president has faced rising pump prices at this stage of an election.

The Iranian strikes come as Europe and the United States are facing increased energy needs entering the fall and winter months, and as Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have surged, pushing diesel prices up to record highs.

Signs are emerging that the latest attacks could trigger an acute market panic, with Brent crude buyers paying a steep premium for early delivery — an indication that the industry fears an impending supply crisis.

“I fear there is a considerable risk of much higher gas and diesel prices in the weeks to come,” said Michael O’Hanlon, director of research of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.

“No one is quite sure how to predict the fuel markets,” he added, “but the military dynamics are seriously worrisome.”

Last week, Trump told reporters that the Iranian government is “desperate to try and affect the election” and could be trying to keep oil prices elevated to hurt Republican prospects.

“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said. “I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm.”

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Monday morning.

(Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images)

Polls have found that likely voters are prioritizing the economy far beyond any other policy matter going into the fall election season, with a New York Times poll published Tuesday showing voters trusting Democrats to handle the economy more than Republicans.

“There’s no quick fix,” said Simon Henderson, the director of the Washington Institute’s Gulf and Energy Policy program. “The main question is whether it is a big shock to the oil market or just another more minor shock. The answer depends on whether the damage to the East-West pipeline cable is repaired quickly.”

Region on edge

The latest Iranian campaign threatens Saudi Arabia’s economic core, straining a long-standing alliance built on robust U.S. defense of Riyadh’s vital interests.

The attack on the East-West oil pipeline originated in Iraq, where Iran continues to operate proxy militias, according to government officials in Riyadh and Baghdad. Saudi Arabia agreed not to retaliate militarily against targets on Iraqi soil, temporarily staving off a regional conflagration.

While the Iraqi militia group denied involvement, it also praised the Houthi advance in Yemen and the militants’ “ongoing battlefield victories against Saudi forces.”

Israel has been providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence to help thwart further attacks, using American military intermediaries, according to Israeli media reports.

Active combat in the war between Iran and the United States eased after a ceasefire was brokered in June. While that truce collapsed in July, the two sides have opted for asymmetric tactics over the resumption of direct attacks, with the United States maintaining a full naval blockade of Iranian ports.

The Trump administration has since focused instead on targeting Iran’s economic partners with aggressive secondary sanctions, seeking to further pressure Tehran into a meaningful peace agreement. But negotiations have failed for months to get back off the ground.

When he first launched the war in February, Trump projected the mission would last roughly six weeks. He said the goal of the U.S. operation was to incapacitate Iran’s ballistic missile program, its navy and its nuclear program.

Trump was warned ahead of the war by his joint chiefs of staff that Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz in response. But he dismissed the threat, anticipating Tehran would quickly back down from a direct confrontation with the United States.

More than six months on, Iran’s ballistic missiles continue to pressure U.S. defense systems across the Middle East. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and discussions on Iran’s future nuclear work have broken down. In private, Trump administration officials fear the war could drag through the remainder of the president’s term.

Tehran, Iran – Another attempt to clinch a deal between Iran and Oman to restore some traffic to the Strait of Hormuz has been set back by a lack of regional consensus on the future of the waterway.

Officials from Iran, Iraq and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations – minus objecting Bahrain – were scheduled to meet in Oman’s port city of Salalah on Monday to confer on new temporary routes in the Strait of Hormuz amid Tehran’s ongoing hot-and-cold war with the United States.

On Sunday night, the region’s officials announced the postponement of the meeting, without giving a new date. None of the stakeholders gave any indication that the postponement was directly linked to recent Houthi and Iraqi militia attacks on Saudi Arabia.

However, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Saudi objection was the reason for the postponement, without providing further details.

US media outlets Axios and CNN reported that Saudi Arabia had submitted amendments to the Iran-Oman proposal for Hormuz because it had concerns that the wording would establish a new status quo which would be unacceptable to Riyadh.

It comes days after Saudi Arabia shut down its critical East-West oil pipeline – the kingdom’s key route for energy exports – after drone attacks in the area originating from Iraq. US President Donald Trump said these attacks were likely conducted at Tehran’s behest.

Saudi Arabia has also faced repeated attacks by the Houthis, who took control of Yemen’s Red Sea coast over the weekend.

Hours after the Salalah meeting was postponed, the Saudi civil defence issued alerts for Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran in southern and western parts of the kingdom. The Houthis claimed to have fired dozens of ballistic missiles and drones at military facilities in Khamis Mushait, in retaliation for air strikes across Yemen, which it blames on Saudi Arabia.

What comes next?

Iran has said it will engage with the US on the future of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war only if there are tangible moves to lift Washington’s naval blockade on the country and return to the June memorandum of understanding.

With continued disruptions to the passage of vessels through the strait, Iran has signalled that it intends to continue pursuing the bilateral agreement with Oman over Hormuz, which it said was finalised last month.

“In consultation with Oman, in the next step, we will make a decision on how to announce or register the agreement,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters during a weekly news conference on Monday.

When the two countries initially advanced the bilateral deal, Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of US talks with Iran.

Ali Vaez, deputy director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that Tehran wants to use its leverage over Hormuz for regional legitimacy – and ultimately to pressure the US.

“The broader the regional buy-in, the harder it becomes for the US to dismiss the arrangement as an Iranian diktat,” he told Al Jazeera.

GCC states, suffering from a sharp decrease in energy receipts, want ships moving and their economies insulated from a war they neither started nor can end. But Vaez said Washington is unlikely to lift the blockade on Iran even if the region blesses the arrangement between Muscat and Tehran.

“[The US] will find it much harder to sustain a policy that its own partners increasingly see as perpetuating the crisis,” Vaez said

Temporary entry and exit

The Omani-Iranian planned agreement envisions temporary entry and exit routes for commercial vessels in the strait, with Tehran repeatedly stating that this would not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened.

Iran and Oman are the only two countries with territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed inbound corridor reportedly goes through Iranian waters, while the outbound corridor mostly passes through Omani waters, with small parts still in Iranian territory.

During Monday’s scheduled meeting, Iran and Oman were supposed to share precise maps and discuss the details of the routes with GCC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait, and Iraq, which is outside the bloc. The deal could reportedly include voluntary tolls to fund navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue operations.

Bahrain, which has borne the brunt of Iranian attacks since the US-Israel war on Iran started at the end of February, said it would not participate in the forum since it would amount to “appeasement”. The Tasnim news outlet, affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), claimed Israel pushed Bahrain to refuse participation.

How does Yemen fit in this picture?

The latest diplomatic movement comes after days of explosive developments in Yemen, when the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, essentially took control of the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea after a lightning offensive against government forces.

Thomas Juneau, assistant professor in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, said the Houthi advances represent a significant gain for Iran. Its Yemeni allies’ position in the Red Sea offers Iran an important new bargaining chip in future negotiations with the US.

“The Houthis are not a simple arm of Iranian foreign policy. They operate largely based on their own interests, and do not take and execute Iranian commands,” he told Al Jazeera. “But Houthi and Iranian interests are largely, if not always fully, aligned. They cooperate closely on the basis of those shared interests.”

Juneau sees the ability for Iran and the Houthis to potentially partially block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb – two of the world’s most crucial maritime bottlenecks – would give them tremendous influence over the global economy, and thus the US.

The Houthis are trying to seize the opportunity to “institutionalise the de facto reality of their veto on maritime traffic” in the southern Red Sea and replicate partial Iranian success in doing the same in the Strait of Hormuz, Juneau said.

Iran has stressed that their allies’ gains in the Red Sea cannot be separated from the Saudi-led blockade and attacks on Houthi areas in Yemen since 2015.

“We know very well that continued war between Islamic countries in the region only has one winner, and that winner is no one but the Zionist regime, which is after persisting tensions and conflict in our region and between Islamic countries,” Iranian spokesperson Baghaei said.

Yemeni government forces have advanced in western Taiz after successfully repelling a Houthi offensive.

Armed forces affiliated with Yemen’s internationally recognised government have retaken positions from the Houthis and are advancing in the southwestern Taiz province as clashes intensify.

Reporting from Taiz on Monday, Al Jazeera Arabic’s Yasser Hassan said forces loyal to the Saudi Arabia-backed Yemeni government advanced in western Taiz on Sunday after successfully repelling a Houthi offensive.

“This comes with the support of air strikes targeting Houthi gatherings. The air force continues to bomb the Houthis. On the west coast in Mocha, Dhubab, and their surroundings,” Hassan said, citing a source in government forces.

In a statement on Monday, the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (supporters of God), said they launched attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia using dozens of ballistic missiles and drones.

The group said the attacks targeted “military facilities and infrastructure, including aircraft hangars, radar installations, runways, ammunition depots and other targets at King Khalid airbase in Khamis Mushait”, Saudi Arabia.

It said the attacks were a response to a Saudi offensive, which involved more than 300 air strikes across Yemen over five days.

There was no immediate comment from Saudi Arabia on the Houthi claims.

On Sunday, the Saudi civil defence agency sent alerts for the city of Abha and the region around Khamis Mushait, but they were quickly lifted shortly afterwards.

Fighting in Yemen’s more than 10-year civil war reignited in July, threatening a United Nations-brokered truce that halted large-scale violence in 2022, after the Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and began targeting its ships in the Red Sea.

The fighting soon spilled over beyond the country’s borders, with the Houthis carrying out air attacks on southern Saudi Arabia, including oil facilities. Dozens of people were wounded in those attacks.

Clashes in Yemen intensified last week after the Houthis captured parts of the country’s Red Sea coast, fortifying their hold on the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a key waterway which handles about 12 percent of global trade, including 11 percent of maritime oil and 8 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The waterway has been an economic lifeline for Saudi Arabia and its oil exports, as the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked by Iranian forces since the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in February.

The Houthis captured more strategic islands in the southern Red Sea, The Associated Press news agency reported on Monday, citing Yemeni government and Houthi officials.

Houthi fighters were deployed on the islands of Greater Hanish and Lesser Hanish about 86 nautical miles (160km) north of the Bab al-Mandeb, according to two government officials and a Houthi official, the AP reported.

Meanwhile, the International Organization for Migration said on Sunday the fighting in Yemen in recent weeks had displaced nearly 86,000 people.

It added that some of those displaced by the conflict were fleeing Yemen altogether, with more than 2,000 people reaching neighbouring country Djibouti.

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Sunday, losing 142.70 points, or 1.30 percent, to close at 10,864.57. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR3.83 billion ($1.02 billion), as 42 of the stocks advanced and 221 retreated.   

Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 53.44 points, or 0.25 percent, to close at 21,579.19. This comes as 25 of the stocks advanced while 47 retreated.   

The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 18.52 points, or 1.25 percent, to close at 1,458.75.     

Top gainers, losers 

The best-performing stock of the day was Armah Sports Co., whose share price surged 9.95 percent to SR71.85.   

Other top performers included Arriyadh Development Co., whose share price rose 5.68 percent to SR16.75, as well as Saudi Reinsurance Co., whose share price surged 3.67 percent to SR28.82.

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 9.97 percent to SR127.30. 

Knowledge Economic City also saw its stock price fall 5.08 percent to SR18.88. 

Allied Cooperative Insurance Group also saw its stock price decline 4.96 percent to SR7.85. 

Corporate announcements 

TAM Development Co. received an amendment letter to the award letter for the “Provision of Advisory Services for Community Engagement and Event Management for Green Riyadh Program” project, awarded by the Royal Commission for Riyadh City. 

According to a Tadawul statement, the amendment involves the cancellation of an operational line item and will not affect the project’s overall profit margins. The total contract value has therefore been revised to SR12.5 million, inclusive of VAT, while the remaining scope of work will continue under the amended contract with no other changes. 

The financial impact will be reflected in the company’s financial results based on implementation progress and the periods in which the related revenue and costs are recognized. The ultimate impact on net profit will depend on the costs associated with the excluded scope and those incurred in completing the remaining work. The company said it will announce any material developments in due course. 

TAM Development ended the session at SR59.50, down 0.25 percent. 

Anmat Technology for Trading Co. announced the signing of a SR51 million contract with the Oversight and Anti-Corruption Authority, or Nazaha, to supply and install specialized equipment at one of the authority’s premises. 

According to a bourse filing, the contract has a duration of 150 days. 

Anmat Technology for Trading Co. ended the session at SR9, down 3.33 percent. 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s first automotive company and original equipment manufacturer, Ceer, will unveil its first flagship electric vehicles, a sedan and an SUV, on Sept. 21, marking a major milestone in the Kingdom’s efforts to establish a domestic automotive industry.

The reveal comes as Saudi Arabia accelerates its push to develop advanced manufacturing capabilities and build an electric-vehicle ecosystem under Vision 2030, supporting economic diversification and strengthening the Kingdom’s position in the global automotive industry.

Established in 2022, Ceer is moving from vehicle development to the unveiling of its first models as Saudi Arabia seeks to establish itself as a regional hub for electric-vehicle manufacturing.

James DeLuca, CEO of Ceer, said: “At the beginning of this year, we said that 2026 is the year of Ceer. I am happy to announce that we’ve set the date for the reveal of our first flagship vehicles.”

He added: “The world is about to witness a historic moment, the result of an incredible journey from initial design and intensive engineering to the buildup of one of the most advanced manufacturing facilities in the world, in record time.”

Saudi Arabia’s EV push

The Public Investment Fund is driving the Kingdom’s electric vehicle ambitions through investments in companies including Ceer and Lucid, while supporting a broader ecosystem covering manufacturing, infrastructure, technology and supply chains.

Ceer was established as a joint venture between PIF and Foxconn to develop Saudi Arabia’s automotive industry. The company designs, engineers, sources, validates and manufactures vehicles, with plans to sell and service them in the near future.

Workforce and local impact

Since its establishment, Ceer has expanded its workforce from 20 to 2,300 employees, bringing together Saudi talent and global automotive experts.

The company has secured partnerships with international companies including BMW, Hyundai Transys and Rimac, as well as Siemens, Sabelt, Isoclima, ANDRITZ Schuler, Durr and XYG.

These partnerships support Ceer’s target of achieving 45 percent local content by 2034. The company is also developing an advanced manufacturing complex and vehicles tailored to the needs of Saudi Arabia and the wider region.

Ceer is expected to contribute around SR30 billion ($8 billion) to Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product, improve the trade balance by SR80 billion and create about 30,000 jobs, with Saudis accounting for 80 percent of direct employment.

The company also supports the Saudi Green Initiative’s target of achieving net-zero emissions in the Kingdom by 2060.

Saudi Arabia has closed its East-West oil pipeline due to a drone attack linked to Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. This pipeline is crucial for Saudi Arabia, as it allows the country to bypass the congested Strait of Hormuz, which has faced reduced tanker traffic due to an ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The Saudi Energy Ministry stated that the closure is a precautionary measure; the pipeline typically carries about 4 to 5 million barrels of oil per day, contributing 4% to 5% of global oil supply. The attack caused injuries and damage, but the exact impact on oil exports is still being evaluated.

President Trump, while attending a golf event in Ireland, suggested that Iran was likely responsible for the attack and predicted that oil prices would drop after the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Recently, oil prices have surged, with diesel prices in the U.S. topping $6 a gallon due to tensions in the region. Reports surfaced that the Houthis, aligned with Iran, seized the strategic Perim Island in the Red Sea.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia reached out to Trump for military assistance against the Houthis, but Washington decided not to intervene directly at that moment, offering intelligence support instead. There were concerns that the attacks on the pipeline and Perim Island could escalate tensions further, especially since diplomatic efforts to resolve the war have stalled.

Iran’s parliamentary committee has stated that negotiations are futile unless the U.S. meets Iran’s demands, particularly concerning recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian foreign ministry announced plans for discussions with Gulf states in Oman regarding the strait. Meanwhile, Iraq’s government dismissed a military commander connected to the attack and has closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran as a precaution to prevent further incidents.

The Saudis have not retaliated yet, following a request from Iraq’s prime minister, but they maintain the right to take necessary actions to protect their interests. Saudi Arabia’s oil production has plummeted to its lowest level in over 30 years, partly due to attacks on maritime vessels by Houthi factions. These forces, supported by Iranian guidance, are reportedly planning counterattacks to reclaim territories lost to the Houthis, who have advanced significantly along Yemen’s coast under Iranian direction. The Houthis have claimed that maritime navigation remains safe, except for Saudi vessels, which are subject to a ban.

With information from Reuters