RussiaUkraine

There appears to be a shift in the years-long conflict in Ukraine.

Last weekend, Ukrainian forces struck deeper into Russian territory, piercing its air defences in a large strike on the Moscow region.

This came a week after fears of a Ukrainian attack forced Russia to scale down its annual Victory Day parade.

Kyiv’s also been relentlessly striking Russia’s oil facilities and military logistics, as it tries to disrupt supplies to the front lines.

All this as Russian missiles and drones continue to target sites across Ukraine.

So, where does the war stand in its fifth year? Does any one side have the upper hand?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Peter Zalmayev – Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative

Pavel Felgenhauer – Russian foreign policy analyst

Mark Episkopos – Research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program

Russia launched more than 1,400 drones and 56 missiles into Ukraine on Wednesday and Thursday.

Much of the onslaught was aimed at the capital Kyiv, days after Russia threatened to do so only if Ukraine attacked its Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9. It is a major Russian holiday commemorating the end of the Second World War.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed a ceasefire, beginning as early as May 5.

Moscow did not respond until May 7, and presented its peace proposal as a unilateral initiative, accompanied by threats to punish Kyiv if it did not respect its terms.

Moscow said Russian front line units would “launch a massive missile strike” on central Kyiv if attacked.

Forty-three Russian drones and a number of ballistic missiles were launched into Ukraine on May 9, and another 27 drones on May 10. It was not until May 11 that Ukraine had a day of peace.

Moscow justified these attacks as reciprocity for Ukrainian assaults. Kyiv accused Moscow of breaking its own ceasefire.

Once the ceasefire was over, on the night of May 11, Russia launched 216 drones and followed up with a massive strike involving 892 drones overnight on May 12 and during the day on May 13.

The night of May 13-14 was worse with 675 drones accompanied by 56 missiles.

Official Ukrainian reports recorded strikes in at least 20 locations in the capital, including a nine-storey apartment building where 12 people were killed in the collapse.

“These are ordinary residential buildings, a school, a veterinary clinic, and other purely civilian infrastructure,” wrote Zelenskyy on his Telegram messaging channel. “These are definitely not the actions of those who believe that the war is coming to an end.”

Throughout the week, Ukraine said it shot down 92 percent of the 1,930 drones launched, close to Zelenskyy’s 95 percent kill target, with 41 out of 57 missiles downed.

Russia’s army slows down

Russia’s onslaught of came as its armies in eastern Ukraine slowed down.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, estimated they had advanced by an average of 2.9 sq km (1.1 sq miles) in the first four months of 2026, compared with 9.76 sq km (3.76 sq miles) a day in the first third of 2025 and 14.9 sq km (5.8 sq miles) a day between October 2024 and March 2025.

Two weeks into May, that daily average had already dropped to 2.63 sq km (1 sq mile), suggesting Russia’s advance is slowing almost daily.

The ISW recently estimated that Ukraine made net territorial gains of 116 sq km (45 sq miles) in April – its first such advance since a September 2023 counteroffensive.

Some of that success is attributed to Ukraine’s successful use of drones behind the front lines.

On May 8, the Azov Corps of Ukraine’s National Guard announced it had “returned to Mariupol”, four years almost to the day since it surrendered control of the city to Russian forces.

The Corps filmed drone strikes on Russian diesel tankers, army trucks and other logistics 160 km (99 miles) behind the front line along the T-0509 highway, which feeds the Russian war effort in the Donetsk region.

“The strike depth will increase,” said the Azov Corps.

Their strikes are part of a broader Ukrainian campaign to hit Russian logistics at middle ranges of about 120-150 km (75-90 miles) from the front line as announced by Zelenskyy at the end of April.

“This primarily involves military logistics, enemy warehouses and headquarters, air defence systems and other components,” he said, adding that Ukraine had increased its strikes at this depth five-fold during the past year.

“We’re already carrying out about five thousand successful strikes at a depth of 20 plus km (12 miles) every month,” said Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov this week.

Also this week, a Russian military reporter said Ukrainian Hornet drones were targeting Russian logistics on roads closer to the frontlines.

“Although the front line is more than 35 km away from the M-30, it is currently paralysed due to enemy [First Person View drone] surveillance,” wrote the Russian reporter.

“In 2014-2015 the front line was closer, but the M-30 was safer,” he added. “This is because many people think that if the front line moves away from large cities and logistics routes they become safer, but for some reason no one takes into account that the range of enemy drones, even FPV surveillance, increases more rapidly relative to the movement of the front line.”

Russia’s declining performance is not due to lack of effort.

“The enemy has intensified offensive actions along almost the entire front and is regrouping its troops,” said Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on May 8. “The most tense area is currently the Pokrovsk direction, where the Russian aggressor has concentrated about 106,000 personnel,” he said.

Since March, Ukraine has increased strikes against Russian oil infrastructure as many as 1,700 km (1,056 miles) inside Russia, in an effort to starve its war machine of diesel and export revenue.

Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, said the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) hit the Yaroslavl oil refinery and Perm oil pumping station on May 8 – Perm sends oil in four directions across Russia to refineries and export terminals.

Russian media reports said the fire from a previous strike on the pumping station was not put out until May 11.

The SBU also said it hit the Perm refinery that day.

During the week, Ukrainian forces struck drone bases and a radar research centre in Rostov-on-Don, the Bryansk chemical plant, an explosives warehouse in Nizhny Novgorod and other targets.

Fedorov on Monday thanked Germany for investing $1bn in Ukraine’s deep strike capabilities, when his German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, visited Kyiv.

“Overall, Ukraine’s positions right now – on the front line, in our long-range sanctions, and in our joint results with partners – are the strongest they have been in years,” said Zelenskyy.

Finnish authorities scramble fighter jets; defence chief says false alarm but warns of potential repeats while Russian war persists.

Finland has stood down its defence forces after sounding an alarm over suspected drone activities in its airspace.

The authorities said on Friday that suspected drone activity above the Helsinki region no longer posed a threat and that the situation was ⁠returning to normal hours after launching an emergency response, including the launch of fighter jets and closure of the capital’s airport.

The alarm illustrates the tension stalking the region as Finland and the Baltic states eye Russian aggression and daily missile and drone attacks amid Moscow’s continued war on Ukraine.

The Helsinki City Rescue Department had warned the nearly 2 million inhabitants of Finland’s Uusimaa region to stay indoors starting about 4am local time (1:00 GMT), as fighter jets were scrambled. Helsinki’s airport was also closed for about three hours.

Later, President Alexander Stubb wrote on X that authorities had “demonstrated their readiness and capacity to react”, adding that the country was now facing “no direct military threat”.

Kimmo Kohvakka, director general for rescue services at the Ministry of the Interior, called the response a “precautionary measure” and said “daily life can continue.”

The incident arose amid growing concerns about regional spillover from the Ukraine war.

The Baltic states of ‌Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have reported a series of suspected Ukrainian drones headed for Russia entering their airspace, prompting domestic criticism over their ability to respond to military threats.

The situation has led to a full-blown government crisis in Latvia. Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned on Thursday after a coalition partner pulled support. The move followed the ousting of the defence minister after a drone crashed at a fuel storage facility.

In March, two drones crossed into Finnish territory and crashed after flying low over the sea and southeastern Finland.

Finnish authorities did not indicate the source of Friday’s drone activity.

However, defence forces operations chief Kari Nisula suggested that Finland had received information from Ukraine about drones potentially straying into the country, according to the Reuters news agency.

The military head added that there was no evidence that drones had entered Finland, but that such situations could happen again as long as Russia continues its war on Ukraine.

Prisoner swap

The incident in Finnish airspace unfolded as Ukraine maintained its drone attacks on Russian oil and energy infrastructure, and Kyiv continued counting the costs of a huge strike that killed two dozen people.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on Friday that its air defence systems shot down 355 Ukrainian drones targeting Moscow overnight, as well as the border regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk.

Among the targets was an oil refinery ⁠in the central city ⁠of Ryazan, about 200km (125 miles) southeast of Moscow, according to the commander of Ukraine’s drone forces.

The attack killed three people ⁠and wounded 12, regional Governor Pavel Malkov wrote on Telegram. Two high-rise apartment buildings were struck, he said, while debris fell on the grounds of an industrial enterprise.

Meanwhile in Kyiv, the death toll from a Russian barrage on an apartment building on Thursday rose to at least 24 people, including three children, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Forty-eight people were wounded.

Amid the ongoing violence, Russia and Ukraine have moved ahead with a prisoner swap that saw 205 POWs repatriated on each side ⁠on Friday. It was the first step of a swap that is planned to ultimately see 1,000 people on each side return home.

The two sides also conducted an exchange of those killed in the fighting, with Russia handing 526 bodies to Ukraine and receiving 41 in return. Both Kyiv and Moscow thanked the United Arab Emirates for mediating the swap.

Zelenskyy wrote on social media that most of the prisoners returned to Ukraine had been in Russian captivity since 2022.

“We will continue to fight for every single person who remains in captivity,” he said.

A UN humanitarian convoy delivering aid to the city of Kherson was hit twice by drones, despite prior coordination with Ukrainian and Russian forces. No injuries were reported, and the UN has not attributed the attack to either side.

President Zelenskyy says rescue operations continue after Russia used ‘more than 1,560 drones’ during its overnight attacks.

Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, killing at least three people and wounding 40 others, Ukrainian authorities have said.

The Ukrainian military said on Thursday that the overnight strikes hit six districts of Kyiv and another six in the surrounding areas. Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said attacks had targeted ports in the southern Odesa region and railways.

In a post on X, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said rescue operations were continuing following an attack on a nine-storey building in Kyiv after Russia launched “more than 670 attack drones and 56 missiles against Ukraine”.

“In total, since midnight yesterday, Russia has used more than 1,560 drones against our cities and communities. These are definitely not the actions of those who believe the war is coming to an end,” he wrote on Thursday.

“It is important that partners do not remain silent about this strike. And it is equally important to continue supporting the protection of our skies,” Zelenskyy added.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, said 40 people were wounded in the attacks, including two children, while Ukrainian emergency services said three people had been killed.

Reporting from Kyiv, Al Jazeera’s Audrey Macalpine said people are still feared trapped under the rubble of the building.

Macalpine said it was one of Russia’s largest attacks of the war, “in a single 36-hour period just by sheer number of drones”.

The attack comes as a setback for efforts to end the war after United States President Donald Trump raised faint hopes for peace by brokering a three-day ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow last week, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin suggested the war could be winding down.

The truce – put in place as Putin presided over a scaled-down military parade in Red Square to mark the anniversary of World War II victory – was marred by allegations of violations by both sides.

Ukraine and Russia launched long-range drone attacks immediately after it ended on Tuesday.

The Kremlin has poured cold water on the idea that Putin’s vague comments, issued Saturday, about the war “heading to an end” could mean a softening in Moscow’s position.

On Wednesday, it repeated its demand that Ukraine fully withdraw from the eastern Donbas region before a ceasefire and full-scale peace talks can take place.

Kyiv has rejected such a move as tantamount to capitulation.

Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv with drones and missiles early on Thursday, officials said, damaging several buildings, including one which partially collapsed with residents likely trapped under rubble.

One killed and four others wounded in attacks on Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, local administration chief says.

Russia and Ukraine have resumed air attacks after a United States-brokered three-day truce expired, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying more than 200 drones were used to attack Ukraine overnight.

Russian aerial attacks across Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region on Tuesday morning killed at least one person and injured four others, according to regional administration chief Oleksandr Ganzha.

Russian drones also hit energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s Mykolaiv region, causing outages, and struck residential buildings and a kindergarten in the Kyiv region, according to local authorities. Russia also carried out attacks on the regions of Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy and Chernihiv, according to authorities.

More than 200 long-range drones were used in the wave of attacks, Zelenskyy said. “Russia itself chose to end the partial silence that had lasted for several days,” he said in a post on X.

Russia’s military, meanwhile, said its defences downed 27 Ukrainian drones over the regions of Belgorod, Voronezh and Rostov.

The exchange of aerial attacks came after the expiry of a 72-hour truce announced by US President Donald Trump on Friday, which he said he hoped would mark “the beginning of the end” of Russia’s four-year war on Ukraine.

The May 9-11 truce overlapped with Russia’s Victory Day, which celebrates the defeat of Nazi Germany in the second world war.

But even before it expired, both sides accused each other of violating the truce by attacking civilians.

Zelenskyy said Russia was neither observing the truce nor “even particularly trying to”, adding there had been no calm in front-line areas despite a lull in large-scale attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of committing more than 1,000 ceasefire violations. It said Ukrainian forces attacked civilian targets in several Russian regions and carried out strikes against Russian military positions on the front line.

Russia’s military had “responded in kind” to the ceasefire violations, according to the Defence Ministry.

US-backed negotiations on ending the Russia-Ukraine war have made little headway and have been largely sidelined by the crisis in the Middle East amid the US-Israel war on Iran. Trump’s ceasefire announcement had raised some hope that US-led talks to end Russia’s invasion could be resumed.

On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested for the first time that the Ukraine war may be “coming to an end” and expressed a willingness to meet Zelenskyy in Moscow or a neutral country once an agreement to end the war is finalised. He also accused the “arrogant” West of risking a global conflict, warning that Russia’s “strategic forces” are combat-ready.

Russian institutions and officials accused of systemic deportation and indoctrination of children during the war on Ukraine.

The European Union and United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on Russian institutions and officials accused of systematically deporting and indoctrinating Ukrainian children.

The EU announced measures against 23 state institutions and people on Monday. The UK simultaneously unveiled a broader package targeting 85 people and entities, roughly a third of them linked to what was described as Russia’s campaign to forcibly deport and militarise Ukrainian children.

Russia has deported and forcibly transferred nearly 20,500 Ukrainian children since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, an EU statement noted. It branded the actions as grave breaches of international law.

The EU said its designations target institutions and individuals involved in programmes subjecting children to pro-Russian indoctrination, including patriotic events, ideological education and military-oriented activities.

The sanctions, which include asset freezes and travel bans, were approved by the EU’s 27 nations in coordination with Canada and the UK, which announced similar measures.

“Stealing children is not incidental. It is a deliberate Russian policy, a calculated attack on Ukraine’s future,” the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, told a news conference.

The UK sanctions announcement named the Centre for Military and Patriotic Training and Education of Youth, known as the warrior centre, a Russian state institution at which Ukrainian children are reportedly subjected to military training and pro-Kremlin ideology.

Also targeted was Yulia Sergeevna Velichko, the Moscow-installed minister for youth policy in the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic, for her role in implementing state-led initiatives.

UK Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs Yvette Cooper said the UK would continue working alongside allies to support every effort to identify and trace children who had been taken.

Russia does not deny taking the children but has said it has done so for their protection, moving them away from front-line areas, and claims it is willing to return them when relatives come forward and can be verified.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2023 for the war crime of illegal deportation of children from Ukraine.

Responding to the announced sanctions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “These are the ones who ‘rewire’ the identity of Ukrainian children, help make them hate their homeland, and one day take up arms to fight against Ukraine.”

The UK’s broader sanctions package also took aim at Russian information warfare operations, with the remaining measures targeting individuals and entities linked to alleged Kremlin propaganda campaigns.

Among them were 49 people working for the Social Design Agency, a state-funded Russian organisation accused of running disinformation and interference operations, including attempts to establish pro-Russia organisations in Armenia and influence the outcome of upcoming elections.

Traditionally a strong Russian ally, the Caucasian country has recently been moving away from Moscow’s orbit.

Last week, the Armenian ambassador was summoned to protest what the Kremlin described as “terrorist threats against Russia” made by Zelenskyy in a speech delivered in Yerevan.

Russian ⁠President Vladimir ⁠Putin has suggested that former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder could coordinate talks with the European Union to secure a ⁠peace deal in Ukraine – a proposal met with scepticism by EU officials.

European Council President Antonio Costa said recently he believed there was “potential” for ⁠the EU to negotiate with Russia and to discuss the future of Europe’s security architecture.

Asked on Saturday whom he would like to see restarting talks with Europe, Putin said he would “personally” prefer Schroeder, who led Germany from 1998 to 2005 and has remained close to the Kremlin leader since leaving office.

A day later, the Russian leader said the ⁠four-year-old war may be “coming to an end”, adding that he was ready to hold direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Moscow or a neutral country.

Speaking after Saturday’s celebrations for Victory Day, which marks Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 at the end of World War II, Putin added he would be willing to meet Zelenskyy only once the terms of a peace agreement had already been settled.

Russia had announced a unilateral two-day ceasefire on May 8-9 to mark Victory Day, while Zelenskyy countered it with his own proposed pause in fighting starting earlier, on the night of May 5-6.

As part of a broader Washington-led push for ⁠peace, United States President Donald Trump on Friday announced a three-day pause in the conflict, but both sides have since accused the other of breaking it.

As US-backed peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow stall, here is a look at who Schroeder is and whether he could be a trustworthy mediator.

Who is Gerhard Schroeder?

The 82-year-old leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) served as Germany’s chancellor from 1998 to 2005, focusing his political goals on European integration, reducing unemployment, liberalising German citizenship laws, curbing nuclear power and rebuilding the economy.

Disagreements over the Iraq war caused a serious rift in German-US relations in 2003, when Germany sided with France and Russia in opposing military intervention in the country over claims that the then-Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, was producing weapons of mass destruction.

After leaving office in 2005, Schroeder ⁠almost immediately took a job as chairman of a controversial German-Russian ⁠consortium building a gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea. He held key roles in Russian energy projects, including work on the Nord Stream gas pipelines and a seat on the board of Russian oil firm Rosneft, which he gave up in 2022.

While he quit that role, the former chancellor has remained close to Putin, standing apart from most Western leaders since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and facing heavy ⁠criticism in Germany.

His failure to publicly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has cost him several privileges normally granted to former chancellors, including receiving a state-funded office, making him a controversial figure at home.

What is his relationship with Putin?

Schroeder referred to Putin as “a flawless democrat” in 2004, declaring himself “thoroughly convinced that the Russian president wants to transform Russia into a democracy and that he is doing so out of a deeply held conviction”.

The then-German chancellor had little to say about Russian attempts to influence the elections in Ukraine during those years or about the Kremlin’s attacks on press freedom. On the contrary, under his leadership, Germany deepened its economic ties with Russia, grew trade and increased its dependency on Russian oil and natural gas.

In his book Klare Woerter (Straight Talk), Schroeder spoke about his relationship with the Russian leader, who worked as a KGB spy in the then-East Germany in the 1980s and is fluent in German.

“The most important thing for a friendship is a common language,” Schroeder, who has two adopted children from Russia – Viktoria and Gregor – said. “It makes everything easier.”

Their friendship reportedly continued to blossom over the years. Schroeder criticised moves to impose sanctions and eject Russia from the Group of Eight and even backed a Kremlin argument comparing the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region with NATO’s intervention in Serbia’s Kosovo province in 1999, which he himself helped lead as the German chancellor.

How are the Russia-Ukraine negotiations going?

The US-backed talks have faltered over the latest Russian offensive to seize the remaining parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk ⁠region, which Moscow has demanded Kyiv cede before it considers ending its war. Meanwhile, the two sides continue to carry out strikes against each other, with Ukraine making significant inroads in destroying Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks.

On Sunday, Ukrainian officials said Russian attacks had killed at least three people, and that close to 150 combat engagements had occurred on the front lines in the previous 24 hours, despite the three-day pause in fighting.

“In other words, the Russian army is not observing any silence on the front and is not even particularly trying to,” Zelenskyy said in his evening address, adding that Ukrainian troops were responding and defending their positions.

On Sunday, Russia’s Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of violating the pause, saying it had ‌downed 57 Ukrainian drones over the past day and “responded in kind” on the battlefield.

Control of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest, has also been a point of contention.

While Putin suggested the war was “coming to an end” on Saturday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said peace in Ukraine was a “very long way” away.

On Sunday, Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted Kremlin adviser Yury Ushakov saying that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would visit Moscow “soon enough” to continue talks with Russia.

Are Ukraine and the West likely to trust Schroeder?

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas reacted with scepticism to Putin’s proposal. “If we give the right to Russia to appoint a negotiator on our behalf, you know, that would not be very wise,” she told reporters on Monday in advance of foreign ministers’ talks in Brussels.

“Gerhard Schroeder has been a high-level lobbyist for Russian state-owned companies. So it’s clear why Putin wants him to be the person so that actually, you know, he would be sitting on both sides of the table,” she added.

Germany dismissed Putin’s suggestion on Sunday. The Reuters news agency quoted a German official as saying the offer was not credible because Russia had not changed any of its conditions, stressing that any talks with the EU would need to be closely ‌coordinated ‌with member states and Ukraine.

The official, who ⁠spoke on condition ⁠of anonymity, said Putin had made a series of bogus offers aimed at dividing the Western alliance.

The annual ritual that is the Victory Day Parade in Moscow serves a dual purpose. It reminds Russia’s citizenry and the Kremlin’s audience across the former Soviet Union of the glorious past. The muscle flexing on May 9 each year benchmarks Russia’s geopolitical fortunes.

Last year on the 80th anniversary of the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany, Russian President Vladimir Putin was flanked by foreign dignitaries from far and wide: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt and Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian Authority.

This year, the lineup was much less impressive. Leaders from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia and Uzbekistan attended – with Republika Srpska, Abkhazia and South Ossetia for some added flavour – but no heavy hitters like India or China.

The talk of Russia as a linchpin of a new multipolar world order rings a tad hollow today, not least because no heavy equipment was marched through during the parade out of fear of Ukrainian drone strikes. On top of it, United States President Donald Trump claimed credit for a three-day ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv.

The relatively dull affair that was this year’s parade speaks volumes about Russia’s current state. On paper, everything is going just fine. Trump has not wholly abandoned the idea of a deal to freeze the war in Ukraine, even at the cost of major concessions by Kyiv. The current US National Security Strategy calls for “strategic stability” with Russia while blasting Europe’s “woke” policies.

The inconclusive war against Iran, meanwhile, has exposed the limits of US military might. Oil prices have jumped, filling Russia’s coffers and improving its fiscal balance. On top of it, Trump has removed sanctions on some Russian oil to increase the global supply. Meanwhile, the Europeans are signalling they want to talk to Moscow.

In reality, the mood is gloomy. The Russian war effort in Ukraine continues to be stalled no matter how much money, materiel and human lives the Kremlin throws into the meat grinder that is the so-called special military operation (SVO). Ukrainian drones have hit deep inside the Russian homeland with even Red Square apparently not being immune to aerial attack.

Trump has lost interest in wooing Putin. With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban gone, the European Union has consolidated ranks. In Russia itself, economic growth has plummeted from 4 percent in 2024 to a projection of just over 1 percent this year.

The prospects for long-term development, productivity growth and technological innovation are lacklustre. There are modest signs of discontent within the Russian elite. Even Putin’s sky-high popularity ratings are slightly down, according to pollsters.

The stifling of the mobile internet in Moscow and other big cities has been met with dismay. Russians could be excused for puzzling over how the SVO, sold as a glorious repeat of the 1941-1945 Great Patriotic War, has gone on longer than the latter with no end in sight. It is no wonder Putin felt compelled to say on Saturday that “the matter” is coming to an end.

While its resources are focused on Ukraine, Russia is on the back foot in what it still calls its “near abroad” too. The past week showed that Europe is gaining momentum there.

On Monday, Armenia hosted the annual summit of the European Political Community (EPC), where European leaders gathered. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in attendance too. Once Moscow’s loyal client and member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and Eurasian Economic Union, Yerevan is now strengthening ties with the West.

Even if the EPC is dismissed as a pan-European talking shop – or maybe a transatlantic one, given that Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, came as well – observers cannot ignore the fact that it was followed by the first EU-Armenia summit.  The high-profile meeting signalled in no ambiguous terms that Yerevan sees its future in the EU. Strategically, it is looking at joining the trio of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.

The EU is reciprocating: The summit discussed up to 2.5 billion euros ($2.95bn) in investment in Armenia; cooperation on energy, transport and digital infrastructure; and visa liberalisation.

In parallel, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are courting the Trump administration. The two countries have welcomed the US as a peacebroker as they move closer to normalising ties. In August at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration pledging to seek peace.

In February, JD Vance became the first sitting US vice president to visit Yerevan and then hopped over to Baku. Armenians and Azeris are negotiating the opening of the Zangezur corridor running between Azerbaijan proper and its exclave Nakhchivan (from where the Aliyev family hails). The project has a name – Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.

In short, the US has scored a couple of points in Russia’s back yard with the help of Pashinyan and Aliyev. Moscow is watching from the sidelines as a former satellite drifts away from its embrace. And the EU but also Turkiye are to benefit because Armenia’s opening and interconnection with its neighbours favours their pro-integration agenda.

Of course, this does not mean that Armenia could simply jump ship from Russia to the West. Moscow retains stakes in the Armenian economy and, therefore, political leverage.

This will be put on display in the June general election, which will pit Pashinyan’s Civil Contract against the Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan and Strong Armenia associated with the Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan. Both Kocharyan and Karapetyan have strong connections to Moscow.

Public opinion is in favour of diversifying relations but not a complete break-up. That is a pragmatic position shared by Pashinyan too despite his focus on deepening ties with the West.

Russia failed to – or was reluctant to – support Armenia against Azerbaijan and prevent the loss of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and Armenians are right to look for alliances elsewhere. But without a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and without full normalisation with Turkiye, one has to tread carefully and not burn bridges.

The Armenian leadership has to also factor in neighbouring Iran, with whom it enjoys positive ties. An escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran could threaten cross-border energy trade.

Putin would have loved to see Armenia and Azerbaijan attending Saturday’s parade. Ditto for Moldova, where pro-EU forces prevailed in the 2025 parliamentary elections. Or Georgia, which still has no diplomatic relations with Russia despite the rule of the authoritarian-minded Georgian Dream, a party viewed positively in the Kremlin.

The chances of those countries turning up next year are slim too. Even Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will probably not confirm until the last minute, as they have been doing for years.

These days, Russia’s near abroad is much more abroad than near.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

As Russia held its most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years with Vladimir Putin suggesting the war on Ukraine is ‘coming to an end’, Theresa Fallon argues Volodymyr Zelenskyy has played a bad hand of cards very well in order to gain momentum against Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that his country’s war on Ukraine may be “coming to an end” and expressed a willingness to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a third country if a peace deal is finalised.

Putin made the comments to reporters on Saturday, hours after promising victory in Ukraine at Russia’s most scaled-back Victory Day parade in years.

The remarks came as Russia and Ukraine began a three-day ceasefire and agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners, in developments that raised cautious hopes of renewed diplomatic progress.

At the parade, Putin praised Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, framing their mission as a “just cause” against “an aggressive force armed and supported by the entire NATO bloc”.

“Victory has always been and will be ours,” he added, as columns of troops lined up on Moscow’s Red Square.

Speaking to reporters afterwards, Putin blamed Western “globalist elites” for the war, saying they had promised NATO would not expand eastward after the 1989 fall of ‌the Berlin Wall, but then tried to draw Ukraine into the European Union’s orbit.

He then declared, “I think the matter is coming to an end.”

Russia’s annual Victory Day holiday marks the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II and honours the 27 million Soviet citizens who died in the conflict.

This year’s parade was more subdued than usual, with videos of military hardware shown on giant screens rather than tanks and missile systems rolling through Red Square.

For the first time, Saturday’s parade featured troops from North Korea, a tribute to Pyongyang that sent its soldiers to fight alongside Moscow’s forces to repel a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

Russia had declared a unilateral ceasefire for the holiday on Friday and Saturday, while Zelenskyy announced a truce that was supposed to begin on May 6, but neither held, and the parties traded blame for the continuing attacks.

Fears for the festivities eased on Friday, when US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had bowed to his request for a ceasefire running Saturday through Monday and an exchange of prisoners.

“This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social Post on Friday.

“Talks are continuing” on ending the war, Trump said, adding that “we are getting closer and closer every day”.

“Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War,” he said.

Zelenskyy followed up on Trump’s statement with a decree mockingly permitting Russia to hold its Victory Day celebrations, declaring Red Square temporarily off-limits for Ukrainian strikes.

The Kremlin shrugged off the comments as a “silly joke”.

Zelenskyy has previously proposed to meet with Putin to negotiate a peace deal, but has dismissed the Russian leader’s suggestion that he come to Moscow. On Saturday, Putin told reporters he could meet with Zelenskyy in another country, but only to endorse a comprehensive accord.

“A meeting in a third country is also possible, but only after a peace treaty aimed at a long-term historic perspective is finalised,” Putin said. “This should be a final deal, not the negotiations.”

Putin, who has governed Russia as president or prime minister since the last day of 1999, faces a ⁠wave of anxiety in Moscow about the war in Ukraine, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, left swaths of Ukraine ⁠in ruins, and drained Russia’s $3 trillion economy.

Russian troops have been fighting in Ukraine for more than four years. That is longer than Soviet forces fought in World War II, known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45.

But Russian forces have so far been unable to take the whole of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Kyiv’s forces have been pushed back to a line of fortress cities. Russian advances have slowed this year, though Moscow controls just under one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.

European Council President Antonio Costa said last week that there was potential for talks between Europe and Russia on the continent’s future security architecture.

Asked on Saturday if he was willing to ‌engage in talks with the Europeans, Putin said the preferable figure for him was Germany’s former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder.

“For me personally, the former chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Mr Schroder, is preferable,” Putin said.