Russia

These are the key events on day 1,178 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Saturday, May 17:

Fighting

• Russia is preparing for a new military offensive in Ukraine, the Ukrainian government and Western military analysts said, as Russia’s Defence Minister Andrei Belousov was in Minsk on Friday to discuss joint military drills in September and deliveries of new weapons to Belarus.
• A drone attack on the northeastern Ukrainian city of Kupiansk killed a 55-year-old woman and wounded four men, said Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration.
• Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that its forces seized six settlements in eastern Ukraine over the past week. According to a ministry statement, Russian troops advanced in the Donetsk region and took control of Torske, Kotlyarivka, Myrolyubivka, Mykhailivka​​​​​​, Novooleksandrivka, and Vilne Pole settlements, Tukiye’s Anadolu news agency reports.

• The Russian Defence Ministry released a video showing Russian forces raising the Russian flag in the settlement of Mykhailivka.
• A court in Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Luhansk region sentenced Australian national Oscar Charles Augustus Jenkins to 13 years in jail at a high-security penal colony for fighting on behalf of Ukraine, Anadolu reports.

Ceasefire

• The first direct Russia-Ukraine dialogue in three years on Friday produced good results, Kirill Dmitriev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s investment envoy, said late on Friday. “1. Largest POW exchange 2. Ceasefire options that may work 3. Understanding of positions and continued dialogue,” Dmitriev said on the social media platform X.
• Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said following the talks that some 1,000 prisoners from each side will be swapped “in the near future”, in the largest exchange since the start of the war in 2022.
• Umerov led the Ukrainian delegation, which ended after 90 minutes in Istanbul, while Putin’s adviser, Vladimir Medinsky, negotiated on behalf of Russia. The United States delegation was led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Medinsky, who was the lead Russian negotiator, expressed satisfaction with the talks and said Moscow was ready for further negotiations, including on a ceasefire. “We have agreed that all sides will present their views on a possible ceasefire and set them out in detail,” Medinsky said after the meeting.

• A source in the Ukrainian delegation told the Reuters news agency that Russia’s demands were “detached from reality and go far beyond anything that was previously discussed”. The source said Moscow had issued ultimatums for Ukraine to withdraw from parts of its own territory in order to obtain a ceasefire “and other non-starters and non-constructive conditions”.
• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who opened the talks by welcoming both delegations and calling for a swift ceasefire, served as a buffer between the negotiating tables in Istanbul’s Dolmabahce Palace.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed regret after the talks at what he called a missed opportunity for peace. “This week, we had a real chance to move towards ending the war – if only Putin hadn’t been afraid to come to Turkiye,” Zelenskyy posted on X from the sidelines of a European Political Community (EPC) summit in Albania.
• Zelenskyy, who did not attend the talks, said he had been “ready for a direct meeting with him [Putin] to resolve all key issues”, but “he didn’t agree to anything”.
• US President Donald Trump, who has pressed for an end to the conflict, said he would meet with Putin “as soon as we can set it up” in a bid to make progress in the peace talks. “I think it’s time for us to just do it,” Trump told reporters in Abu Dhabi as he wrapped up a trip to the Middle East.

• Zelenskyy was in Tirana, Albania, on Friday with European leaders to discuss security, defence and democratic standards against the backdrop of the war. He held a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
• European leaders also agreed to press ahead with joint action against Russia over the failure in Turkiye to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, Prime Minister Starmer said after consultations with President Trump.
• Starmer said after the talks that the Russian position was “clearly unacceptable” and that European leaders, Ukraine and the US were “closely aligning” their responses.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced new plans for additional sanctions on Moscow after Putin failed to travel to Turkiye to negotiate with Ukraine.
• US senators renewed calls on Friday for Congress to pass sanctions on Russia after Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks showed little progress, but no votes were scheduled on bills introduced six weeks ago aimed at pressuring Moscow to negotiate seriously.

Regional security

• Russia and Belarus are preparing a new, large military manoeuvre together, the Belarusian state agency BelTA reports. “We plan to jointly develop measures to counter aggression against the Union State,” Defence Minister Belousov said during a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart, Viktor Khrenin, in Minsk, according to BelTA. The Union State combines Russia and Belarus.
• The exercise, dubbed Zapad-2025, or West-2025 in English, will be the main event of the combat training of the regional troop formations, he said. The manoeuvre is planned for mid-September, according to the agency.

Economy and trade

• Russia’s economic growth slowed to 1.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest quarterly figure in two years, data from the official state statistics agency showed on Friday.
• Economists have warned for months of a slowdown in the Russian economy, with falling oil prices, high interest rates and a downturn in manufacturing all contributing to headwinds. Moscow reported strong economic growth in 2023 and 2024, largely due to massive state defence spending on the Ukraine conflict.
• The Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS), which represents the democratic countries bordering the Baltic Sea, called for new shipping rules to allow for stronger joint action against Russia’s so-called shadow fleet.

Amid the geopolitical reconfiguration, Russia’s invaluable support for multitude engagement with African countries and integration associations across the continent were aspects of the significant theme thoroughly discussed at the 4th “Russia-Africa Forum: What Next?” and the inaugural Forum of Young Diplomats Russia-Africa from 22nd-25th April, 2025, at the Moscow University of International Affairs (MGIMO), and that week-long event included a plenary session, roundtables, expert and panel discussions, business games, and many others in hybrid format.

As anticipated, the week-long activities, in their totality, gave a new impetus to strengthening Russian-African youth cooperation. More or less, it thus contributed to the preparation of the next second Russia-Africa Foreign Ministers Forum this fall, as well as the third Russia-Africa Summit.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated, in a video message, that the second ministerial conference of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum would take place in one of the African countries in 2025, while the third Russia-Africa summit is planned for 2026. Without a doubt, Russia has set the course for comprehensive interaction with Africa. It has created a new specialized department dedicated to partnership with Africa within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which underscores the importance Russia places on this diplomatic priority.

Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russian-African relations are on the rise, and Moscow would continue to help reinforce the continent’s position as an independent center of power in the emerging multipolar world order. Further, he explained that Russia endorses the desire of Africans to play an active role in world affairs. According to Sergey Lavrov, there would be more efforts toward practical cooperation in trade and economic spheres, which would continue to help Africans in their quest to possess advanced technologies in order to strengthen their political and economic sovereignty. 

Russian Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov, highlighted the potential of organizing a Youth Day within the framework of these meetings, calling the initiative promising. “Today, our country is firmly committed to the comprehensive strengthening of relations with African countries and their regional integration bodies. We look forward to aiming at elevating Russian-African cooperation to a new and higher level,” Mikhail Bogdanov stated.

Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, said at the plenary session that African countries were taking steps, in the face of current drastic changes, to ensure their political freedom and sovereignty. In a video message to the participants, Nebenzya attributed the multiple crisis situations in many African countries predominantly as a consequence of long years of colonial dependence and consistent opposition to the manifestation of neo-colonial practices in Africa.

Vasily Nebenzya recalled that Russia, in its turn, consistently opposes modern practices of neocolonialism. “Trust in the collective West as a partner is declining everywhere, and there is a growing demand for fundamental changes in the modern system of international relations. Examples of successful cooperation on independent multilateral platforms, such as the Non-Aligned Movement, are multiplying,” he emphasized.

In order to bridge the information gap, Russia’s TASS news agency intends to strengthen its presence in African countries, according to the news agency’s Deputy Director General Mikhail Petrov. So far, compared to the Soviet period, the TASS news agency does not maintain such a large-scale presence in Africa — it currently works in only six African countries. That, however, Mikhail Petrov also highlighted the contributions of TASS First Deputy Director General Mikhail Gusman to fostering media ties with Africa, noting his long-running interview series Formula of Power. This allows African partners to better understand Russia with Africa and gives indications of building more productive interactions in the near future. The news agency was the general media partner during the Russia-Africa summits in 2019 and 2023.

The discussions on issues, such as the fight against neo-colonial practices to technological and sanctions challenges, continued in 2024 during a media forum held with TASS support on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit. “Such a multimedia dialogue, in our opinion, helps promote cooperation in other areas as well and builds mutual trust, which should form the foundation of sound and effective collaboration,” Deputy Director General Mikhail Petrov concluded his discussions with participants at the Moscow-based MGIMO University.

Africa is the continent of the future, and the future is created by young people. This applies fully to foreign policy. Therefore, the Russia-Africa Forum of Young Diplomats is an initiative by the Council of Young Diplomats of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Such a meeting fits in well with numerous MGIMO initiatives devoted to Africa, such as Africa in the Focus of Russian Interests, School of Young Africanists on Food Security, Africa Week, and the MGIMO Model African Union. 

In order to provide a multifaceted field of activity with the necessary resources, the Department for Partnership with Africa was created at the Foreign Ministry in January 2025. Its functions include promoting political, economic, scientific, educational, and cultural ties with the African integration associations. In conclusion, it is worth remembering that Russian-African friendship and partnership have a long history: in the past century, Russia selflessly helped Africans in their courageous struggle for freedom and independence. Advancing relations with the African countries is among Russia’s unconditional priorities, and this approach is enshrined in the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation approved by President Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine and Russia agreed to a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap — the war’s largest — during their first direct peace talks in three years, in Istanbul. Kyiv is now pushing for a Zelensky-Putin summit and a clear ceasefire plan.

There was hope that it would be Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting in Turkiye this week, for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

That wasn’t to be, after Russia confirmed that Putin would not be travelling to Turkiye. But both countries still sent delegations – agreeing to a prisoner swap – and the meeting in Istanbul on Friday was the first direct talks since shortly after the war began in February 2022.

Some of those talks in 2022 were also hosted by Turkiye, highlighting the central role the country has played in the search for a resolution to one of the world’s most significant geopolitical conflicts.

Turkiye is also poised to expand its influence in Syria, where the US has lifted sanctions on the Turkish-allied government, and has a significant win on the domestic front, after the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced this week that it was disbanding, ending a 40-year war against the Turkish state.

A direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy on Turkish soil would have capped off a strong week for Turkiye, but analysts say that its central role to the process is a victory nonetheless.

“Turkiye stands to win diplomatically whichever way the talks go,” Ziya Meral of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) said, even if the analyst ultimately was sceptical of any peace framework emerging from the talks. “It fulfils Ankara’s desire to be a negotiator and key player in regional developments. The fact that Ankara is in a position to engage both with the United States and Russia, as well as Ukraine is indeed a diplomatic success.”

Over the last 15 years or so, Turkiye has established itself as a significant diplomatic player, extending its influence across Africa and playing a pivotal role in the overthrow of long-term Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, all while maintaining an intensely delicate balancing act between belligerents in the Russia-Ukraine war.

“There are many reasons why Turkiye is hosting the talks,” Omer Ozkizilcik, a non-resident fellow at The Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

“Turkiye started a peace process independent of the US shortly after the invasion, leading to the Istanbul protocols of 2022. This is also a new model of negotiation, pioneered by Turkiye,” he said, referring to the draft peace agreement brokered between the two states that Russia has since accused Ukraine and the West of walking away from.

“Before, neutral states such as Switzerland with no stake in the conflict would mediate. Now, under a new model, Turkiye is successfully negotiating in conflicts where it does have diplomatic, economic and geopolitical stakes,” Ozkizilcik added, listing a number of disputes where Turkiye had played a mediating role, such as that between Ethiopia and Somalia, where Turkiye was able to negotiate in December a “historic reconciliation” in President Recep Tayyip Erodgan’s words.

Turkiye has its own interests across these countries, including its supply of drones to Ukraine and a significant military presence in Somalia. However, it is still able to present itself as a reliable arbitrator in peace talks involving these countries.

“It’s a new Turkish model that is seeing the country emerge as a regional diplomatic power,” Ozkizilcik said.

Hot and cold relations with Russia

The balancing act Turkiye has followed in negotiating between Russia and Ukraine hasn’t been easy – particularly when Ankara has had to take into account its opposition to Russian expansionism in the Black Sea region and Moscow’s support for parties opposed to Ankara in the Middle East and North Africa.

Turkiye labelled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war” early in the conflict, allowing it to implement the 1936 Montreux Convention – effectively confining Russia’s military vessels to the Black Sea.

Ankara and Moscow have also found themselves on opposing sides in Libya and Syria. In Libya, Turkiye backs the United Nations-recognised government, in contrast to Russia’s support for armed forces in the insurgent east, while in Syria, Turkiye supported the ultimately victorious opposition forces against the Russian-backed al-Assad regime.

Syria was the source of the biggest tension between the two when, in 2015, Turkiye shot down a Russian fighter jet near the Turkiye-Syria border. The incident triggered a severe deterioration in diplomatic and economic ties, but a Turkish statement of regret led to a rapprochement the next year, and relations have remained strong.

Those strong ties have also survived Turkiye’s supply of drones and other military equipment to Ukraine throughout the course of the war.

Russia has seemingly turned a blind eye to that, and maintains “economic, diplomatic and energy relations” with Turkiye, Ozkizilcik said.

The benefits of good relations with Turkiye seem to outweigh Russia’s unhappiness with some aspects of Turkish policy, and Turkiye’s position as a member of NATO that Russia can still deal with is in itself useful.

In 2022, Turkiye was prominent in opposing Western sanctions on Russia; describing them as a “provocation“. And Turkiye has rarely been content to toe the NATO line, for a time opposing Sweden and Finland’s entry into the alliance, and also agreeing on a deal to buy Russia’s S-400 missile system in 2017.

Turkiye’s purchase of the missile system led to US sanctions, exclusion from the F-35 defence programme and accusations in some quarters that Ankara was “turning its back” on the West as part of a pivot towards Russia.

“Both sides have learned to compartmentalise differences,” Ozkizilcik said. He referred to an attack in 2020 that killed more than 33 Turkish soldiers in Syria by regime forces acting in coordination with Russia. “There were talks, both sides met and addressed the issue and they moved on. More recently, when Turkish-backed forces overthrew the Assad regime, Erdogan still called Putin on his birthday and congratulated him.”

Friendship with Ukraine

But Turkiye has been able to strengthen its relationship with the West in the years since, demonstrating its usefulness, particularly when it came to Ukraine.

Turkiye was instrumental in brokering a deal in 2022 to allow Ukraine to export its grain by sea, and has also been firm in its stance that Russian-occupied Crimea – the homeland of the Turkic Muslim Crimean Tatars – be returned to Ukraine.

Steven Horrell, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, believes that Ukraine “appreciates Turkiye’s past support to them”, even if it has some qualms about its ties with Russia.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly thanked Erdogan for his role in facilitating talks and in supporting Ukraine. On Thursday, the Ukrainian leader highlighted Turkiye’s support for Ukraine, and even said that his country’s participation in direct talks – despite Putin’s absence – was “out of respect” for Erdogan and US President Donald Trump.

Earlier in the week, Zelenskyy had thanked Erdogan for his support “and readiness to facilitate diplomacy at the highest level”.

I spoke with the President of Türkiye @RTErdogan to discuss key details of the meeting in Türkiye, which could help bring an end to the war. I am grateful for his support and readiness to facilitate diplomacy at the highest level. We share a common view on the need for a… pic.twitter.com/BX1pw28f3x

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 12, 2025

The emphasis on mutual respect and friendship highlights that for Ukraine, Turkiye is not an ally it can afford to lose.

And that gives Turkiye some leeway in its ability to maintain close ties to Russia without any negative backlash from the West, and a chance to fulfil some of its own goals.

“Turkiye would certainly gain some prestige from hosting the talks, even more so if they are successful,” said Horrell. “Turkiye views itself not just as a regional leader, but truly a leader on the global stage. They gain in both of the bilateral relationships with Russia and Ukraine if they help achieve the goals of peace.”

Reporters Without Borders and Truth Hounds found that Russia’s attacks on hotels intended to ‘discourage’ war coverage.

Russian attacks have increasingly hit hotels hosting journalists in Ukraine, in what could constitute “war crimes”, according to a new report.

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) and Truth Hounds – a Ukrainian organisation founded to document war crimes – released the report on Friday. It found that Russian attacks on hotels housing journalists moved from being “isolated events” early in the conflict in 2022 to a “sustained threat” by 2025.

At least 31 strikes on 25 hotels being used by journalists have been recorded since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022, the report states.

“These attacks appear to be part of a broader Russian strategy aimed at intimidating journalists and suppressing independent media coverage of Russia’s actions in Ukraine,” the report said.

The hotels hit are mainly close to the front line. Only one was being used for military purposes at the time of the attack, the NGOs said.

“In total, 25 journalists and media professionals have found themselves under these hotel bombings, and at least seven have been injured,” it stated.

According to the RSF, at least 13 journalists have been killed while covering Russia’s war on Ukraine, with 12 of the deaths on Ukrainian territory.

Types of attacks

The report highlighted that the attacks followed a clear pattern, occurring at night, using ballistic missiles launched at civilian hotels that were not “legitimate military targets”.

“Our analysis therefore suggests that these attacks are neither random nor incidental but are instead part of a broader strategy aimed at discouraging independent reporting from the front line,” the authors concluded.

Due to the safety obstacles to reporting from a war zone, 13 percent of respondents to a survey said there had been a “reduction” in assignments to high-risk areas, affecting how the war is covered.

The report called for legal measures to prosecute crimes against journalists at “national and international jurisdictions”, specifically the International Criminal Court.

These are the key events on day 1,177 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Friday, May 16 :

Fighting

• Fighting continues along the 1,100km (683 mile) front line, where Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its forces captured two settlements located near Moscow’s long-term targets. Russia claimed to have taken Novooleksandrivka, a rural village near Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as well as the town of Torske, which is located near the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
• The Ukrainian military acknowledged that Novooleksandrivka had been under attack, but it did not mention Torske in its latest report.
• Oleksandr Syrskii, Ukraine’s top military commander, said on Telegram that Russia “has turned its aggression against Ukraine into a war of attrition and is using a combined force of up to 640,000 troops”.
• Ukraine lost its first F-16 fighter jet on Friday due to an “unusual situation on board”, but the pilot successfully ejected, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Ceasefire

• Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian envoys will hold trilateral talks in Istanbul, although hopes are low for any breakthrough after Russia sent a lower-level delegation to the meeting than hoped. The meeting marks the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine since a meeting in 2022 also held in Istanbul.
• Turkiye will take part in two trilateral meetings on Friday as part of the renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, Turkish Foreign Ministry sources told the Reuters news agency.
• A meeting will take place between Turkish, US and Ukrainian officials and is scheduled to take place at 10:45am local time [07:45 GMT], followed by talks between Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian delegations at 12:30pm [09:30 GMT], the sources told Reuters.
• The Ukrainian delegation will now be led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov instead of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Thursday.
• “We can’t be running around the world looking for Putin,” Zelenskyy said after a meeting with Erdogan. “I feel disrespect from Russia. No meeting time, no agenda, no high-level delegation – this is personal disrespect. To Erdogan, to Trump.”
• US President Donald Trump said an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is not possible without him first meeting Putin. “I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One.

Putin’s absence casts doubt on peace talks in Turkiye, raising concerns about potential intensified sanctions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is sending a team headed by his defence minister to Istanbul for the first direct talks with a Russian delegation since the early weeks of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Zelenskyy announced the move on Thursday after the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had no intention to meet with him in Turkiye, sending instead a junior delegation – a move that Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said was “like a slap in the face”.

The Ukrainian president said in a news conference in the Turkish capital, Ankara, that the Russian delegation doesn’t include “anyone who actually makes decisions”, accusing Moscow of not making efforts to end the war.

The Ukrainian delegation will be headed by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov with the aim “to attempt at least the first steps toward de-escalation, the first steps toward ending the war – namely, a ceasefire”, he said.

It was not immediately clear when the delegations would meet.

Al Jazeera’s Sinem Koseoglu, reporting in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Ankara, said Zelenskyy chose a delegation “in equilibrium” with the Russian one.

“He said they didn’t mind taking the first step towards an immediate ceasefire that is necessary for direct peace talks,” she said.

Still, “there won’t be any negotiations, and Zelenskyy underlined that even his delegation has no mandate to decide anything. So tomorrow, it is probably going to be technical talks between the two delegations,” she added.

US President Trump, who had pressed for Putin and Zelenskyy to meet face-to-face in Istanbul, brushed off Putin’s absence from the talks.

“Nothing’s going to happen until Russian President Vladimir Putin and I get together, OK?” Trump said on board Air Force One just before landing in Dubai on the third stop of his Middle East trip. “I didn’t think it was possible for Putin to go if I’m not there.”

Putin’s absence punctured hopes of a breakthrough in ceasefire efforts that were given a push in recent months by the Trump administration and Western European leaders amid the intense manoeuvring. It also raised the prospect of intensified international sanctions on Russia that have been threatened by the West.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan earlier welcomed Zelenskyy with an honour guard at the presidential palace in Ankara before the two held talks.

“Now, after three years of immense suffering, there is finally a window of opportunity,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at a NATO meeting taking place separately in Turkiye. “The talks … hopefully may open a new chapter.”

Brussels is drawing up plans to use trade tariffs and capital controls to maintain financial pressure on Russia, even if Hungary decides to use its veto to block an extension of the European Union’s sanctions regime, which lapses in July of this year.

The European Commission has told ministers that a large part of the EU’s sanctions, which included freezing 200 billion euros ($224bn) of Russian assets, could be adapted to a new legal framework to bypass Budapest’s veto, according to the United Kingdom’s Financial Times newspaper.

Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, has repeatedly held up EU boycotts on Moscow as the central European country gets 85 percent of its natural gas from Russia. Orban’s nationalist government is also one of the most friendly to Moscow in all of Europe.

In any event, the EU’s recent proposals have emerged as Moscow and Kyiv hold their first direct peace talks since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ukrainian and Russian representatives are convening today in Istanbul, Turkiye. However, Vladimir Putin will not travel to Istanbul for face-to-face talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Last weekend, European leaders held talks in Ukraine to put pressure on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire in the run-up to the Istanbul talks. Ukraine agreed to it. Russia did not.

What sanctions does the EU currently have in place against Russia?

The EU adopted its 17th sanctions package against Moscow, designed to stifle Russia’s economy and force President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, on Wednesday. This package has been signed off by Budapest and will be formally ratified by the European Commission next week.

Brussels has progressively expanded sanctions against Moscow since 2022, introducing import bans on Russian oil, a price cap on Russian fuel and the freezing of Russian central bank assets held in European financial institutions.

Vast swaths of Russia’s economy – from media organisations to aviation and telecommunications – are now under EU restrictions, in addition to trade bans and measures targeting oligarchs and politicians.

Under the 17th package, some 200 “shadow fleet” tankers have been sanctioned. These are ships with opaque ownership and no Western ties in terms of finance or insurance, allowing them to bypass financial sanctions.

The latest sanctions will also target Chinese and Turkish entities that the EU says are helping Russia to evade embargoes. New restrictions will be imposed on 30 companies involved in the trade of dual-use goods – products with potential military applications.

“Russia has found ways to circumvent the blockage imposed by Europe and the United States, so closing the tap would grab Russia by the throat,” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, told BFM TV.

How effective are sanctions?

Alongside military support for Kyiv, sanctions have been the EU’s main response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. But sanctions have so far failed to stop the war. What’s more, due to high oil prices and elevated military spending, Russia’s economy has outperformed expectations since the start of 2022.

Barrot acknowledged on Wednesday that the impact of sanctions has been insufficient. “We will need to go further because the sanctions so far have not dissuaded Vladimir Putin from continuing his war of aggression … we must prepare to expand devastating sanctions that could suffocate, once and for all, Russia’s economy,” said Barrot.

What new measures are being proposed?

While the 17th round of sanctions was only agreed on Wednesday, EU ministers are already considering what more might be done to undermine Putin’s political clout if the war in Ukraine persists.

Capital controls, which would be aimed at restricting money flowing in and out of Russia, and trade measures such as tariffs, are two options that have been mentioned by the European Commission in recent weeks. Capital controls can take a variety of forms, including restrictions on foreign investment, limiting currency exchange or imposing taxes on the movement of capital.

The commission also aims to share proposals next month that would allow Brussels to implement a ban on new Russian gas spot market contracts – deals for immediate delivery and payment – with European companies in 2025, and a total phase-out by 2027.

Despite oil export restrictions, Russia still earns billions of euros from natural gas sales into the EU through liquefied natural gas (LNG) and TurkStream (a pipeline connecting Russia to southeastern Europe via the Black Sea). Banning spot market contracts would lower Moscow’s revenue from these sources.

Brussels may also propose tariffs on enriched uranium as part of its effort to cut EU reliance on Russian fuels.

According to The Financial Times, the EU insists that these measures would not amount to sanctions and therefore would not need the unanimous backing of all 27 EU countries, which is normally required to extend sanctions.

“I think the EU cooked up these potential punishments to try and get Russia to agree to the 30-day ceasefire … it was the stick they were brandishing,” said an analyst familiar with the matter who asked not to be named.

Will the US impose more sanctions?

It may. On May 1, Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, said he had the commitment of 72 colleagues for a bill that would enact “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia.

Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, is spearheading a draft bill that seeks to impose a 500 percent tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil and fossil fuels.

Trump himself, who seemingly welcomes the possibility of a rapprochement with Russia, said in March that he was “considering” imposing sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a peace agreement is reached with Ukraine.

Could such measures force Putin to the negotiating table?

“Most Russian people want life to return to normal and business owners are getting tired of war-related costs,” the anonymous analyst told Al Jazeera. “There is a growing sense of unease.”

She said she doubted whether the EU’s touted measures would bring Putin any closer to signing a peace agreement, however. “Only because sanctions haven’t been able to do that,” she said, “and there’s already a maze of them.”

According to Castellum.AI, a global risk platform, Russia has been slapped with 21,692 sanctions since the start of the war – the majority of them against individuals.

“On past performance, it’s hard to see how even more sanctions and additional punishments will stop the fighting,” the analyst said.

She estimated a 60 percent chance that Russia and Ukraine would still be at war by the end of this year.

Russia and Ukraine are poised for talks in Turkiye on Thursday, even though the prospects of President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting directly for the first time in three years were dashed by the Kremlin late on Wednesday.

United States President Donald Trump, who had earlier indicated that he might join the negotiations, will also not attend, according to American officials.

Here’s what we know about the talks, what prompted them, who’s expected to attend, and why the negotiations matter:

Why are the talks being held?

On Sunday, Putin proposed the idea of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkiye, instead of the rounds of indirect talks that the US and others have tried to mediate between the neighbours at war. Putin referenced direct talks that took place in 2022 while pitching for their resumption.

“It was not Russia that broke off negotiations in 2022. It was Kyiv. Nevertheless, we are proposing that Kyiv resume direct negotiations without any preconditions,” Putin said on Sunday.

In February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Shortly after, Russia and Ukraine held talks in the Turkish capital, Istanbul.

According to Zelenskyy, the talks fell apart because Russia demanded that Ukraine concede the Donbas region, which spans Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions – parts of which Russia occupied during its invasion. Zelenskyy added that Russia wanted Ukraine to surrender long-range weaponry, make constitutional amendments to declare neutrality and significantly reduce its armed forces. “There were never any negotiations; it was an ultimatum from a murderer,” Zelenskyy said at the time.

While Zelenskyy had earlier held that any peace agreement would require Russia to give up Ukrainian territory it had occupied, in December last year, Zelenskyy said the “hot phase” of the war could end if NATO offered security guarantees for the part of Ukraine currently under Kyiv’s control.

He added that the return of land that Russia has occupied could be diplomatically negotiated later.

“The pressure that the US has exerted to attempt to bring an end to the fighting in Ukraine has evolved over time,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera. “It appears that the most recent elements in that evolution, particularly in terms of European solidarity with Ukraine, have led Russia to engage in direct talks.”

Putin’s recent push for talks came a day after Ukraine’s four major European allies gave Putin an ultimatum to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face renewed sanctions. This ultimatum came after leaders of the European countries, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Poland, visited Kyiv.

They gave Putin a deadline until May 12. On Sunday, May 11, Putin – without committing to a ceasefire – said: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine. Their purpose is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict, to establish a long-term, lasting peace for the historical perspective.”

Where are they being held?

The talks are being held in the Turkish city of Istanbul, which straddles the boundary between Asia and Europe.

What role did Trump play in this?

The four European leaders – Britain’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz and Poland’s Donald Tusk – said that they had briefed Trump about their ultimatum to Russia over a phone call and suggested that he was on board.

But after Putin called for direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow, Trump issued a statement on his Truth Social platform asking Ukraine to meet with Russia “immediately”.

Trump ran his campaign for the 2024 election on the promise to bring a swift end to the Ukraine war. The Trump administration held multiple meetings, starting February, with Russian and Ukrainian representatives separately in Saudi Arabia in attempts to broker a deal.

Also in April, the Trump administration indicated that it was taking a step back from providing security guarantees to Ukraine. The Trump administration said it wanted Europe to take the lead in supporting Ukraine’s defence instead, noting that the US had other priorities, including border security.

In recent weeks, however, Trump and his team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have expressed growing frustration at the lack of meaningful progress in negotiations and have threatened to walk out of efforts to mediate peace.

Explaining his insistence that Ukraine join the May 15 Istanbul talks, Trump argued: “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US, will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!”

Who will be there?

“I supported President Trump with the idea of direct talks with Putin. I have openly expressed my readiness to meet. I will be in Turkiye. I hope that the Russians will not evade the meeting,” Zelenskyy wrote in an X post on Monday.

On Tuesday, Zelenskyy announced he will be in Ankara on Thursday, where he will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The talks with Russia, however, are supposed to be held in Istanbul subsequently.

Trump has said he will send Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg to attend the talks in Istanbul.

Russia on Wednesday night announced its team for the meeting. Vladimir Medinsky, a close Putin aide and former culture minister who also led previous rounds of unsuccessful talks with Ukraine in 2022, will lead Moscow’s team. With him will be Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin and the director of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Igor Kostyukov.

Trump’s earlier offer to attend the talks himself had been welcomed by Kyiv. “All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkiye. This is the right idea. We can change a lot,” Zelenskyy had said.

However, late on Wednesday, US officials clarified that Trump would not be attending.

The US president is currently in the Middle East, where he spent Wednesday in Qatar, after visiting Saudi Arabia a day earlier. On Thursday, Trump will be in the United Arab Emirates before returning to Washington.

What does Putin’s absence mean?

Zelenskyy had earlier said he would be present at the talks only if Putin also attended. “Putin is the one who determines everything in Russia, so he is the one who has to resolve the war. This is his war. Therefore, the negotiations should be with him,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X on Tuesday.

With Putin now no longer poised to attend, it is unclear if Zelenskyy will personally participate in the talks or whether he will leave it to his team to join the negotiations.

Yet, in many ways, Zelenskyy scored over Putin by throwing down the gauntlet and asking him to attend.

“Zelenskyy has presented a challenge to Russia to show that it has genuine interest; it is up to Russia whether it meets this challenge or not,” said Giles.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had also pledged to urge Putin to attend the talks.

What’s on the table?

It is difficult to predict what might specifically be discussed in the Turkiye talks.

“It would be rash to predict whether there will be any meaningful discussion at all, since the acceptable outcomes for both are still far apart,” Giles said. “Russia wants to neutralise Ukraine as an independent sovereign state, while Ukraine wants to survive.”

At the moment, Ukraine has proposed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, while Russia has insisted that a series of its demands be accepted before it joins such a truce. Moscow said that it wants assurances over the monitoring mechanism for a ceasefire, and that a truce won’t be used by Ukraine to rearm and mobilise more soldiers. Instead, Putin has announced brief, unilateral ceasefires in recent days that Ukraine says Moscow never actually adhered to.

“We do not rule out that, during these negotiations, it will be possible to agree on some new truces, a new ceasefire and a real truce, which would be observed not only by Russia, but also by the Ukrainian side. [It] would be the first step, I repeat, to a long-term sustainable peace, and not a prologue to the continuation of the armed conflict,” Putin said on Sunday.

How significant are these talks?

Giles said that if the talks happen, “they will be a significant step forward”.

He added: “Anything that has been referred to as peace talks [ so far] has not been anything of the sort,” describing the two parallel discussions that the US has had with Russia and Ukraine.

On March 19, the US, Ukraine and Russia announced a 30-day ceasefire on attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and on March 25, they agreed on a Black Sea deal, halting the military use of commercial vessels and the use of force in the Black Sea. Both sides, however, traded blame for violating the terms of those agreements, which have now expired.

May 14 (UPI) — A Russian court on Wednesday sentenced well-known election watchdog Grigory Melkonyants to five years in prison after it found him guilty of allegedly working for a so-called “undesirable” organization.

“Don’t worry, I’m not despairing,” Melkonyants was quoted telling supporters after the sentence was handed down by Moscow’s Basmanny District Court in a latest blow to free speech in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.

“You shouldn’t despair either!” he reportedly stated.

Melkonyants, who has been in custody since his August 2023 arrest, co-founded Russia’s most respected and prominent election monitoring group which in 2013 was designated as a “foreign agent” by Russian authorities.

The charge stems from alleged ties to the European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations, which was declared “undesirable” by the Russian state in 2021.

Melkonyants has denied the allegations.

Three years later, Golos — which means “vote” in Russian — was liquidated as a non-governmental organization but despite court orders, continued to publish reports on Russia’s local and national elections, which international experts contend were not free or fair.

“Grigory Melkonyants has committed no crime,” Marie Struthers, Amnesty International‘s director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, said Wednesday in a statement in calling for his “unconditional” release.

Struthers says his only “offense” was “defending the right to free and fair elections,” and that Russian authorities “instigated this criminal case in order to silence one of the country’s most respected election observers.”

The election monitoring group was long-accused by Russian officials of multiple violations and for allegedly being tainted by money it received from the U.S.-based National Endowment for Democracy and the U.S. Agency for International Development.

“Golos gave rise to a massive election monitoring movement in Russia in 2011, then the protests began which gave Putin quite a scare,” according to Leonid Volkov, a close associate of late Russian political opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

“So many years have passed, and he still seeks revenge,” he wrote on social media.

Melkonyants expressed worry for the group’s 3,000 election monitors during Russia’s 2011 elections as it came under fire while Putin, then prime minister, was ultimately re-elected to succeed then-President Dmitry Medvedev for another term.

Meanwhile, the Britain-headquartered Amnesty International considers him a “prisoner of conscience” who was prosecuted and imprisoned solely for peaceful activism.

“The international community cannot remain silent,” Amnesty’s Struthers added Wednesday.

“Neither on this appalling verdict nor on the outrageous assault on civic space that is taking place in Russia.”

Brazil, China call for direct talks as the “only way to end the conflict” between Russia and Ukraine.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has pledged to press his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to attend negotiations with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkiye, adding to calls on Moscow to enter talks and end its three-year war.

Lula is expected to stop in the Russian capital on the way back from attending a regional forum in China.

“I’ll try to talk to Putin,” Lula said at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday before his departure.

“It costs me nothing to say, ‘hey, comrade Putin, go to Istanbul and negotiate, dammit,’” he said.

The negotiations, expected to take place on Thursday in Turkiye’s commercial hub, Istanbul, would be the first direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow since 2022, shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Lula’s comments come after the Ukrainian foreign minister urged Brazil to use its influence with Russia to secure a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy.

Brazil and China issued a joint statement on Tuesday calling for direct negotiations as the “only way to end the conflict”.

Zelenskyy earlier dared Putin to meet him in Turkiye, saying if he does not show up, it would show that Moscow is not interested in peace.

He also urged United States President Donald Trump, currently on a tour of Middle Eastern countries, to also visit Turkiye and participate in the talks.

Trump had announced that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would participate in the talks in Istanbul.

A State Department official said Rubio was expected to be in Istanbul on Friday.

The Kremlin has not yet specified whether Putin will attend in person, stating only that the “Russian delegation will be present”.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Moscow was ready for serious talks on Ukraine, but doubted Kyiv’s capacity for negotiations.

These are the key events on day 1,175 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Wednesday, May 14:

Fighting

• At least three people were killed in a Russian bombardment of Ukraine’s Kharkiv, an official from the region said.

• At least 16 people were wounded in Ukrainian drone attacks on the region of Belgorod, the governor of the southwestern Russian region said.

• Among the wounded were a doctor and a paramedic, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on the Telegram messaging app. Eight people were admitted to hospital, he added.

• Russia’s air defence units destroyed 12 Ukrainian drones overnight, according to Russian news agencies.

Ceasefire talks

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would travel to Turkiye this week for negotiations with Russia on the war in Ukraine and urged President Vladimir Putin to meet him for face-to-face talks.
• Zelenskyy called on US counterpart Donald Trump to help secure a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Turkiye on Thursday, while accusing the Russian leader of not seriously wanting to end the war.
• Zelenskyy also said he hopes to attend Pope Leo XIV’s inaugural Mass on Sunday, depending on developments in talks with Russia this week.
• Trump said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would participate in talks on the Ukraine war in Turkiye, saying he expects “some pretty good results”. A State Department official said Rubio was expected on Friday in Istanbul.
• Brazil’s president said he will press Vladimir Putin to attend negotiations with Zelenskyy in Turkiye.

• French President Emmanuel Macron has declared that he was in favour of imposing new sanctions on Russia in the coming days if Moscow failed to agree to a ceasefire, mentioning financial services and oil and gas as possible targets.

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz earlier said European allies would roll out “a significant tightening of sanctions” if there was no progress on ending the Ukraine war this week.

• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying Moscow was ready for serious talks on Ukraine but had doubts about Kyiv’s capacity for negotiations.

Economy

• The EU is preparing to apply much higher tariffs on imports from Ukraine within weeks, hitting Kyiv’s economy at a crucial time in its fight against Russian aggression, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, quoting diplomats.

May 13 (UPI) — Russia was responsible for the downing of a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet over eastern Ukraine that killed all 298 people on board in 2014, the U.N’s International Civil Aviation Organization ruled.

The ICAO Council voted that Russia had failed in its duties under the international laws of the sky in the shooting down of flight MH-17 after finding in favor of the Netherlands and Australia, both of which lost citizens in the tragedy, after they brought a case against Moscow, ICAO said in a news release Monday.

The council agreed that claims by the two countries were “well founded in fact and law,” saying Russia’s alleged conduct in the downing of the Boeing 777 aircraft by a surface-to-air-missile breached the Convention on International Civil Aviation, which mandates states “refrain from resorting to the use of weapons against civil aircraft in flight.”

ICAO said the finding had been reached after reviewing written submissions and oral hearings at multiple meetings of the 36-member-country governing council and that a formal document setting out the facts and points of law leading to its conclusion would be released at a future meeting.

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, in a post on X, welcomed the win in what she said was Australia and the Netherlands’ “historic case” against Russia, saying it was a significant step in their fight for justice.

“We remain unwavering in our commitment to the pursuit of truth, justice and accountability for the victims and their loved ones,” she wrote.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp said the ruling was a strong signal to countries around the world that “states cannot violate international law with impunity.”

In a joint statement, the two countries said Russia must now take responsbility and “make reparations for its egregious conduct” as required under international law.

“Our thoughts are with the 298 people who lost their lives due to Russia’s actions, incuding 38 who called Australia home, their families and loved ones,” the statement said.

“While we cannot take away the grief of those left behind, we will continue to stand with them in that grief and pursue justice for this horrific act.”

MH-17 was en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was shot down over Ukraine’s Donbas region, where Russian-backed separatists were fighting Ukrainian forces for control.

Britons, Belgians and Malaysians were also killed in the disaster but the majority, 196, were from the Netherlands.

In November 2022, a Dutch court trying two Russian nationals and a Ukrainian rebel fighter in absentia, found the trio guilty of murder and sentenced them to life in prison.

However, Russians Igor Girkin and Sergey Dubinskiy, and Ukrainian Leonid Kharchenko, who were fighting for the pro-Moscow Donetsk People’s Republic separatist movement at the time, remain free as the Netherlands was unable to extradite them.

A Joint Investigation Team made up of experts from five nations impacted by the diasaster — Australia, Belgium, the Netherlands, Ukraine and the United States — later ruled after a eight year probe that there was “concrete information” that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely approved the transfer of the BUK missile that brought down MH-17.

However, the team said that while they had evidence of Putin’s role in signing off on the transfer of the missile to separatists, it fell short of the prosecutorial standard of “complete and conclusive evidence.”

Russia must pay damages for the downing of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine in 2014, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) says.

The United Nations aviation agency has said Russia was responsible for the downing of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine in 2014 that killed all 298 passengers and crew.

With 38 Australian citizens and 196 Dutch citizens on board the aircraft when it was downed, the two governments called on Russia to take responsibility for the incident and pay damages. However, Russia has consistently denied any involvement in the downing of the plane.

Late on Monday, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) said Australia and the Netherlands’ claims over the shooting down of flight MH17 were “well-founded in fact and in law”.

“The Russian Federation failed to uphold its obligations under international air law in the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17,” the agency said in a statement.

According to international air law, a distinction must be made between military aircraft and commercial or other aircraft during warfare.

While the ICAO has no regulatory powers, it holds moral suasion and sets global aviation standards adopted by its 193-member states.

‘Important step’

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp said in a statement that the ICAO’s ruling in the case launched in 2022 was an “important step towards establishing the truth and achieving justice”.

“This decision also sends a clear message to the international community: States cannot violate international law with impunity,” he said.

Moreover, Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said her government welcomed the decision and urged ICAO to swiftly determine reparations.

“We call upon Russia to finally face up to its responsibility for this horrific act of violence and make reparations for its egregious conduct, as required under international law,” Wong said in a statement.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also welcomed the ruling and said the decision was another step towards “restoring justice for this crime”.

“No matter how much money and effort Russia put into lying to conceal its crimes, the truth wins out, and justice prevails,” Sybiha wrote on X.

On July 17, 2014, the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777, travelling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was hit by a Russian-made BUK surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, where pro-Russian separatists were fighting Ukrainian forces.

At the time, separatists in the area claimed the airliner was shot down by a Ukrainian military jet, with Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing Ukraine of bearing “responsibility” for the deaths of the passengers.

In 2022, a Dutch court sentenced three men to life sentences over the downing of the plane, including two Russians that Moscow refused to extradite.

These are the key events on day 1,174 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Tuesday, May 13:

Ceasefire

• Moscow has yet to say whether Russian leader Vladimir Putin will attend direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy slated for Thursday in Istanbul and proposed by Kyiv over the weekend. The leaders have not met since December 2019.
• United States President Donald Trump said he is “thinking about flying over” to Istanbul to join the potential Putin-Zelenskyy talks.
• “I don’t know where I’m going to be on Thursday – I’ve got so many meetings – but I was thinking about actually flying over there. There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen,” Trump said. “Don’t underestimate Thursday in Turkey.”

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he held a joint call with Ukrainian and European officials to discuss a “way forward for a ceasefire” on Monday.
• Europe will reportedly push the White House for new sanctions on Moscow if Putin either fails to attend the Istanbul meeting, or fails to agree to an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire”, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Germany said it is also preparing sanctions against Moscow if the talks stall.

Fighting

• Ukraine says that Russia is “completely ignoring” calls for a 30-day ceasefire made over the weekend by the US and Europe. It was due to begin on Monday.
• “Russian shelling and assaults continue,” Zelenskyy said in a nightly address. “Moscow has remained silent all day regarding the proposal for a direct meeting. A very strange silence.”
• Ukraine’s military said that there had been 133 clashes with Russian forces along the front lines up to Monday night.
• The heaviest fighting continues in the Donetsk region on Ukraine’s eastern front and Russia’s western Kursk region. Ukraine’s military said the intensity remains unchanged since the ceasefire was supposed to begin.
• Moscow called the 30-day ceasefire an excuse by Europe to “provide a breather for Kyiv to restore its military potential and continue its confrontation with Russia”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he will be waiting to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Turkiye to talk face-to-face, as part of peace negotiations scheduled for May 15. It’s not clear however if Putin will attend.

Former British Home Secretary Charles Clarke has expressed little faith that United States President Donald Trump’s “combination of bullying and flattering” will produce a lasting ceasefire in Ukraine.

Trump, on April 17, presented Russia and Ukraine with a “final” ceasefire offer, which forces Kyiv to legally cede Crimea to Moscow, without offering it security guarantees.

“My picture from the outset, which is essentially pessimistic, is that Trump wanted his big moment and in the same way as with North Korea, he thought he could [coax Russia] into a situation,” said Clarke.

Trump had similarly tried to force North Korea into nuclear disarmament in 2019.

“I don’t myself see how [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy or Ukraine as a whole could ever concede de jure control of Crimea to Russia. They could concede de facto control, but Trump didn’t seem to take that distinction,” Clarke said.

“He’s shaken things up, but I think he’s been obviously far too credulous to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and to Russia in the whole process.”

Clarke spoke to Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the 16th Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe, hosted recently by Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics, which Clarke co-directs with Brendan Simms, a professor of European geopolitics.

Can Europe face Russia?

The prospect of a possible ceasefire is rarely out of the headlines.

Over the weekend, Putin said Russia would engage in direct talks with Ukraine “without preconditions” – a rare offer throughout the conflict – after European leaders met Zelenskyy in Kyiv to call for a 30-day truce.

Ukraine and Europe have presented a ceasefire document, which, unlike Trump’s plan, makes no territorial concessions to Russia three years after it invaded Ukraine. The question is whether they are willing and able to back it with continued military effort if Russia and the US reject it.

“The scenario of a complete American withdrawal may be overly bleak right now, but it’s definitely a possibility,” said Simms.

Should Europe then offer Ukraine an independent security guarantee?

“I do think we should do that, but I think we should only do it if we are genuinely committed to going the full mile with Ukraine,” said Simms.

“I could quite easily see, for instance, a discourse in a country like Germany, which would say something like, ‘Well, it’s awful what’s happening in Ukraine, Trump is awful, [but] no we’re not going to do anything to help Ukraine, and we are going to use Trump as an excuse to walk away from supporting Ukraine’,” Simms said. “That is very much a discourse you’re beginning to hear in German public opinion.”

Both Clarke and Simms believed the Russian army’s ability to win an uncontestable military victory in Ukraine has been overestimated thanks to narratives touted by the Kremlin.

“There’s been far too much belief that the Russians have got an effective military and economic machine,” said Clarke, citing the Russian failure to take Kyiv in 2022 and losing control of the Black Sea to an adversary without a navy.

Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine have slowed down dramatically, two separate analyses found last month.

The Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom estimated that Russian forces seized 143sq km (55sq miles) of Ukrainian land in March, compared with 196sq km (75sq miles) in February and 326sq km (125sq miles) in January.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, spotted the same trend, estimating Russian gains of 203sq km (78sq miles) in March, 354sq km (136sq miles) in February and 427sq km (165sq miles) in January.

This pattern of diminishing returns had started in 2024, a year when Russia wrested away just 4,168sq km (1,610sq miles) of fields and abandoned villages – equivalent to 0.69 percent of Ukraine, the ISW determined in January.

Those meagre gains came at the cost of 430,790 soldiers, the equivalent of 36 Russian motorised rifle divisions, outnumbering Russia’s losses in 2022 and 2023 combined, said Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence.

As Russia prepared to celebrate the 80th anniversary of victory in World War II, its losses in Ukraine were approaching the one million mark, Ukraine’s Defence Ministry said.

Al Jazeera is unable to independently verify casualty tolls.

“They do have weight of numbers on their side, but weight of numbers only counts if you’ve got willing fighters,” said Clarke. “And there’s a great deal of evidence that there’s real problems for the Russian leadership in terms of the attitude of Russian troops and Russian positions.”

While Europe could ultimately step up defence industrial capacity, Clarke cautioned that Europe would nonetheless struggle to replace US intelligence, political coherence and command and control.

A European force for the Baltic

These issues have recently come to the fore, as Europe grappled with the possibility of fielding a peacekeeping ground force in Ukraine.

Simms argued in favour of creating it, but against deploying it in Ukraine as a peacekeeping force.

One reason is that European militaries are not trained for the drone warfare now being developed in Ukraine and will not be effective, he said.

“The other consideration is that the Ukrainian army is our most effective ally. If we deploy forces as part of a peace deal, which will end the war in Ukraine by definition and take the Ukrainians out of the conflict, we will end up in a situation where our mobile force, our only deployable force, the preponderance of it will be fixed in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin will no longer be fixed in Ukraine. He can pivot to face the Baltic states in the high north, and the Ukrainians will no longer be in the field. So that will be almost like … a self-inflicted wound.”

A European mobile force should keep its powder dry for deployment wherever Putin strikes next, said Simms, most likely in the Baltic states, while Europe helps Ukraine in long-range fires – drones and missiles – and provides air cover.

Russia’s psyops: Nuclear blackmail

Clarke said it is “absolutely possible” that Europe and Kyiv can win the war without Washington’s support, but warned of a “high risk strategy” should Ukraine “hold on so long that Russia would fall over”.

Europe and Ukraine could win if Europe overcame its fear of nuclear blackmail, said Simms.

Putin threatened the use of nuclear weapons from the outset, he said, but did not use them when Ukraine claimed back 20,000sq km (7,720sq miles) of its territory in September 2022, nor when Ukraine counter-invaded Russia in August 2024.

Yet fear of nuclear retaliation prevented Germany from giving Ukraine its 500km-range (310-mile) Taurus missile, which carries a 450kg warhead and impacts at high speed, devastating its targets.

“It’s not at all clear that if a power station in Moscow were destroyed by a Taurus, that [Putin] would use nuclear weapons. In fact, I think it is unlikely,” said Simms.

“But he has achieved through his rhetoric and through, I think, a misunderstanding of the nature of deterrence, a chilling effect on the West, which has cost the Ukrainians dear and has wasted three years that we had to sort this out – before Donald Trump appeared on the scene.”

These are the key events on day 1,172 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Sunday, May 11:

Fighting:

Politics and diplomacy:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkiye, on Thursday “without preconditions” to achieve “lasting peace” and “eliminate the root causes” of the three-year conflict.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russia to confirm an unconditional 30-day ceasefire beginning on Monday, saying Ukraine would then be ready to meet for direct talks with Russia.
• United States President Donald Trump described the talks offer as a “potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine”.
• On Saturday, Zelenskyy received the backing of Europe’s major powers and Trump for the unconditional 30-day ceasefire beginning on Monday.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his Russian and French counterparts that a “historic turning point” has been reached in efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and Ankara was ready to host talks between the two warring parties, his office said.
• Macron said Putin’s offer to start direct talks with Ukraine is “a first step but not enough”, arguing that an unconditional ceasefire that Kyiv and its allies have called for should happen first. Macron accused Putin of “looking for a way out, but he still wants to buy time”.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Putin’s proposal for direct talks with Kyiv a “serious proposal” that is a step towards “lasting peace”.
• Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said the US and Europe are collectively ramping up pressure on Russia to push through a ceasefire. “I think the American administration is also getting a little bit impatient with these Russian games,” Michal said, accusing Russia of dragging its feet in implementing a truce.