Russia-Ukraine war

Rybakina pulled out on the eve of the Indian Wells tournament, with Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk replacing the top seed.

Defending champion Elena Rybakina has pulled out of the Women’s Tennis Association (WTA) Finals, saying she was not physically ready to compete, allowing Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk to take her place in the eight-player field at Indian Wells.

Organisers on Saturday cited a viral illness as the official reason for the world number one’s “disappointing” withdrawal, but said the world number one needs time to recover from the physical toll of a demanding year.

Tournament director Garbine Muguruza, a former world number one and two-time Grand Slam champion, said she had spoken with Rybakina and that the Kazakh had been unable to recover in time after struggling with physical problems late in the season.

“We love Elena, and we know that she was feeling so-so in Tokyo as well,” Muguruza told the Reuters news agency. “I spoke to her today, and she really couldn’t recover on time.

“What we want is for her to feel good, to go rest, to recover. We don’t want her to feel like she has to play — only if she’s ready to.”

Rybakina, who won two Grand Slam titles this year, also withdrew from ⁠the quarterfinals of the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo last month because of a neck injury.

‘Amazing field’ despite Rybakina absence

Rybakina’s absence deprives the event of some star power, but Muguruza said the round-robin format and depth of the field would ensure a high-quality tournament.

“We have the best players,” said Muguruza, who triumphed at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara in 2021.

“I know our world number one is not going to be able to play, but we have an amazing field, the very best,” she added.

“Every match could be a Grand Slam final. You really need to be ready. You cannot give one inch.”

Kostyuk, who is making her WTA Finals debut after a breakthrough season that included the Madrid title and a rise into the top 10, was already in Indian Wells as an alternate and practising when Rybakina withdrew.

Muguruza said the Ukrainian, known for her signature post-match backflip celebrations, had earned her opportunity.

“Marta is great. She’s had a breakthrough year,” Muguruza said. “With this year, we have many first-time players in the Finals, and that’s very exciting. It’s very hard to qualify.”

Kostyuk has been outspoken about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and does not shake hands with Russian or Belarusian opponents. Muguruza said the tournament would support players in making their own decisions.

“They’re free to do whatever they feel,” she said. “We are open and supporting them.”

Opportunity for Sabalenka

Rybakina’s withdrawal could create an opening for world number two Aryna Sabalenka to make inroads in the rankings.

Sabalenka, who won the Indian Wells title earlier this year, has the chance to reduce the gap at the top of the rankings, according to Muguruza, who highlighted Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva as a player comfortable in the California desert.

“Of course, Aryna might be thinking that this can be a good opportunity,” she said.

The WTA moved the finals to Indian Wells from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with Muguruza saying player safety had been the decisive consideration amid conflict in the Middle East region.

“It clearly felt no longer safe to be in a region where there is conflict,” she said. “Taking care of the players and looking ahead to what could be safe, comfortable and secure, relocating felt the best decision.”

Muguruza said players had responded positively to the switch to Indian Wells, where she competed regularly during her career.

“When we knew that Indian Wells could be the next venue, it was just a joy,” she said, adding that ticket sales have been strong. “The whole thing is just perfect.”

The prime minister blames pro-Russian hackers for the leak, as her top diplomat says the cyberthreat was ongoing.

Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has said his personal data had been disseminated on the dark web, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni blaming pro-Russian hackers for the leak.

Tajani announced in a social media post on Saturday that “for days now, cybercriminals have been publishing my personal data on the dark web and seeking further information, effectively exposing me to new threats and intimidation”.

The threats against Tajani, who is also vice prime minister of Italy, come amid a spate of hoax bomb threats across Europe that have forced flight diversions, security alerts at broadcasters, and attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems.

“They are also targeting my family; they are willing to pay for more details about me and my loved ones,” Tajani added in his X post. “My response is very simple: I will not be intimidated in any way.”

‘Matter of grave concern’

Meloni expressed solidarity with Tajani “following the revelations about the activities of pro-Russian hackers, and the publication on the dark web of personal data”.

She called attempts to sell confidential information about government officials “a matter of grave concern that must be addressed with the utmost determination”.

Tajani added in his statement that Italy’s “position on Ukraine is the political reason I have been targeted: defending the freedom of a sovereign state, taking a clear stand in support of a nation’s democracy and independence, is dangerous in the eyes of these criminal entities”.

He also suggested that the cyberthreats may also be a reaction to the Italian government’s efforts to strengthen the Foreign Ministry’s digital defences.

Tajani did not specify what kind of information had been shared, but suggested that the cyberthreat was ongoing.

He added that the ministry was taking the threats seriously and was coordinating its response with allied countries.

Ritu Pant always made sure that her merchant navy officer husband told her two things before departing on an assignment.

“I always noted the details and the name of his ship and his emergency contact details in case of a crisis,” says Ritu, who is based in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand.

That’s what she did on April 25, when her husband Ajay left Paradip Port in the state of Odisha on board the MT Smyrtos, a crude oil tanker. Her husband had been a sailor for 18 years, and spent six or seven months a year at sea. But growing threats to seamen – amid the wars in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, and from pirates roaming the high seas – had increased her jitters in recent years.

Yet it was through a social media post that she learned in mid-June that the ship had been captured. Not by pirates, but by the British armed forces, because the MT Smyrtos is under Western sanctions for allegedly working as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, a network of vessels that help Moscow evade United States and European economic restrictions to continue to sell oil and gas, amid the war on Ukraine.

Now Ajay Pant faces charges of flouting United Kingdom sanctions against Russia by commandeering the ship. It’s the first known instance when a European nation has kept a ship captain under arrest on such grounds, and could set a worrying precedent, say lawyers and groups advocating for the rights of seafarers. “This is a unique case,” said Tony Patten, the UK representative at the International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF), an organisation that works for the rights of seafarers.

Other European countries have also taken over ships that they accuse of violating sanctions against Russia, but while they’ve kept the vessels, they have so far let the sailors go. In March this year, a captain of a suspected Russian shadow fleet was prosecuted in absentia by a French court. In another case from Finland, a court dismissed charges against the captain of a Russian oil tanker accused of damaging undersea cables in the Baltic Sea on account of lack of jurisdiction. In other cases, European nations have set commercial sailors free with fines.

By contrast, Ajay faces up to 10 years in prison if convicted.

The case has also underlined a growing tension between maritime traffic through international waters – the Smyrtos was not in British territorial waters when it was captured – and the enforcement by countries of sanctions that are not approved by the United Nations.

‘Situation of the sea was very bad’

The open seas have always been dangerous, but the risks have mounted as wars and piracy have turned ships and their crew into active targets for militaries and mercenaries alike.

At least 24 seafarers have been killed in the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in February. More than 120 commercial ships and tankers have been attacked in this period in the waterway, which used to transport a fifth of the world’s energy supplies before the start of the war.

The death toll in the Black Sea is even grimmer: At least 40 sailors have been killed in more than 570 attacks on vessels there. Piracy off the coast of Somalia has resurged, too.

For Ritu Pant, all of that meant increased insecurity each time her husband went on a ship.“I was quite worried,” she said, describing her thoughts while Ajay was at sea. “When I talked to Ajay, I would tell him that you need to keep in touch always; you need to tell me that you’re fine and everything is safe around because the situation of the sea was very bad.”

But it was not uncommon for her to not hear from her husband for days, due to network disruptions at sea. So Ritu would track updates of her husband’s ship online, a practice that has become increasingly common among families of sailors at sea.

On June 14, the MT Smyrtos was chugging through the English Channel when the Royal Marines Commandos intercepted it, in what was a first-of-its-kind operation authorised by then British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

At the time, the ship was in international waters, outside the territorial jurisdiction of the UK. Yet Chinook, Merlin Mk4 and Wildcat helicopters from the Maritime Air Group; a Royal Air Force P-8A Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft; a frigate; and a mine countermeasures ship participated in the military operation to take control of the vessel, according to the British Ministry of Defence.

The ship was carrying oil from Russia and was on track to pass through the Suez Canal on its way to India, its destination.

“This successful operation delivers yet another blow to Russia and reminds those fueling Putin’s war in Ukraine that we will not let them hide,” Starmer said in a post on X.

What followed was equally unprecedented; charges of allegedly breaching Russian sanctions were brought against Ajay, who has since been in detention in the UK. After an initial court hearing, his bail was denied.

‘Criminalisation of seafarers’

Enforcement of maritime sanctions brought against Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has been tenuous at best, which makes the Smyrtos case “very unique”, said David Hammond, a lawyer and founder of Human Rights At Sea, a nonprofit and UN-accredited organisation advocating for the rights of people living, working, transiting and operating at sea.

“It is unique in terms of the interception and the interdiction of a vessel that had been sanctioned, having passed through the English Channel as an international transit corridor. It’s, in my understanding, not happened before,” he said.

On the one hand, Hammond explained, the outcome of the case will determine how coastal states enforce sanctions against vessels. But, he said, it also underscores the risks of “criminalisation of seafarers”.

Hammond said Ajay Pant’s case was part of a broader pattern of “shipping crews finding themselves in a position where they are arrested for many crimes, such as trafficking or movement of drugs that they’re not even aware of having been put on board the ship”.

He cited the example of Ali Albokhari, a Finnish-Syrian chief mate on a cargo ship, who was detained by Turkish authorities in 2023 after 137kg (302lb) of cocaine was found on board.

Patten of the ITF echoed similar sentiments. “Our stance is that seafarers being penalised automatically when something like this happens isn’t fair. We would always uphold the right of the seafarer,” he said.

Hammond said Ajay’s case was especially without parallel. “In the case of the Smyrtos,  it could be argued that Captain Pant is being criminalised for simply doing his job,” he said, adding that the direction in which the British courts rule will set a new precedent for masters’ accountability over movement of sanctioned goods.

The case, Hammond added, “is a perfect storm in a global storm of impunity; who is accountable and who enforces accountability”.

“And the unintended consequences of which are yet to be seen,” he warned.

‘Horrible year at sea’

The case also raises wider concerns, Hammond said, about how shipping companies and the countries vessels traverse often treat seafarers. “Undeniably, seafarers are seen as disposable assets,” he said, “disposable because they can be easily replaced but concurrently, as assets for assuring continuous global movement of goods by sea.”

The killings in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea have underscored that sense among sailors and their families – that the lives of those who keep the global economy moving are seen as disposable by those in power.

In a statement shared with Al Jazeera, the International Maritime Organization confirmed at least 66 sailors were killed in various conflicts this year, and hundreds of others injured. Many sailors are also still missing and feared to be dead. “It has been a horrible year for people at sea,” Patten said. “Problems have always existed, but conflicts and geopolitical change have certainly heightened them.”

Ajay Pant’s case also shines new light on a growing number of instances where navies have gone outside their territorial waters to seize tankers that they claim are violating their domestic sanctions regimes.

Since February, when the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, US forces have intercepted and captured several cargo ships in the Indian Ocean. These vessels were seized not just far from US territorial waters but also far from the theatre of their war, on accusations that they were helping Iran evade US sanctions.

The US and the UK argue that they are acting within the bounds of international law.

The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea permits a warship to visit a cargo ship to verify its flag where there are reasonable grounds to suspect the vessel is without nationality. The British Defence Ministry, in its statement after the seizure of the Smyrtos, said that if a vessel is determined to be stateless, the UK can exercise criminal and maritime enforcement powers under its domestic Policing and Crime Act.

The Smyrtos, like many ships that are accused of belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet”, has frequently changed its flag. The ship had once previously been registered in The Gambia, and then adopted a Cameroon flag in December 2025. When it departed from a Russian port, it had a Cameroonian flag, but Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported that the ship had been removed from Cameroon’s register earlier, in June. It is owned by a Chinese company.

According to the British Defence Ministry, Russia sells about 75 percent of its oil using such shadow tankers.

But whether militaries have the right to enforce their domestic sanctions and laws in international waters against individuals and vessels that are not registered in their territory remains a contested question in international law.

The capture of such vessels raises “a much bigger issue” of “the freedom of navigation at sea”, said Hammond.

To Ajay’s family and those advocating for him, it also raises a more human question: If a cargo ship captain passing through international waters can be captured and tried by nations for allegedly violating their domestic laws, is any sailor safe?

Anchored with hope

That’s a question that Ritu has lived with in the past few months, forcing the former school principal into advocacy not just for her husband’s release, but for seafarer rights globally.

“Ajay’s case goes beyond just our family, and could be a landmark judgement for seafarers worldwide,” she said. “It raises the fundamental question of whether a master of a ship can be criminalised for decisions that are beyond his authority, knowledge or control.”

The journey has been a difficult one, she said.

“Ajay was the primary breadwinner of his family, and I have also been forced to give up my work to focus on this case,” the mother of an eight-year-old and a one-year-old said.

“He has also been a caregiver to his elderly parents,” she added, saying that for the first few days after the arrest, she kept the news from them, worried for their health. “I wouldn’t allow the daily newspaper in the house and stopped sending my older daughter to school, afraid that someone would say something hurtful to her.”

Eventually, Ritu informed the family and prepared them for the struggles ahead.

“The hardest part is having to do this across continents. We have only spoken to him over short calls, and he has had no personal visitors since I went to meet him in August,” she said. “I don’t want him to feel that he has been forgotten.”

But despite the hardships, she remains hopeful, as support has poured in from the global seafarers community. “When I started posting on social media, I received so many messages from families and wives of sailors,” she said. “Every seafarer’s family I’ve talked to relates to this. So many sailors are getting targeted right now in conflict at sea; they are being made scapegoats.”

Now, she’s preparing for Ajay’s upcoming trial. “I have to bring him back home,” she said. “For his family, but also because no seafarer should be treated in this way.”

Though the US president said a deal was ‘very close’, he gave no specifics and did not meet a visiting Ukrainian delegation.

US President Donald Trump has said that a deal between Russia and Ukraine may be imminent, following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, at the White House.

“I think we’re going to be very close to settling Russia-Ukraine,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday, while declining to disclose details of his conversation with Dmitriev.

“There’s going to be an agreement. It’s going to be a big agreement, and it’s going to involve more than Ukraine,” Trump said, adding that the effort could include “all of Europe”.

Trump has frequently predicted that an agreement to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War II was close. Negotiations have, however, picked up in recent weeks.

Trump said he did not meet the Ukrainian delegation on Thursday.

The meeting between the US president and Dmitriev came after a diplomatic gathering hosted by First Lady Melania Trump, which brought Russian and Ukrainian representatives together to mark and build on the localised six-day truce she helped broker in the southern Ukrainian city of Oleshky in October. The US president did not attend the event.

The temporary ceasefire ran from October 27 to November 1 and allowed for the evacuation of nearly 800 civilians from the besieged, Russian-occupied city of Oleshky in Ukraine’s Kherson region, as well as the delivery of critical food and medical supplies.

Senior officials from both countries attended on Thursday, including Dmitriev; Yana Lantratova, Russia’s human rights commissioner; David Arakhamia, leader of the Servant of the People party in Ukraine’s parliament; and Dmytro Lubinets, Ukraine’s parliamentary human rights commissioner.

Melania Trump also spoke at the event, which the White House described as “the first time in American history that a First Lady has personally brought representatives of two nations at war to the White House for diplomacy”.

“Together, we can create something more enduring than a temporary ceasefire,” she said, urging both sides to see the humanitarian truce in Oleshky “as a spark in a world of darkness”.

The first lady presented Putin’s and Zelenskyy’s representatives with large white envelopes and asked them to deliver her personal letters to each leader. Dmitriev presented her with a painting by an 11-year-old girl, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent her the Order of Princess Olga, a Ukrainian award recognising her role in the ceasefire.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has met Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei in Moscow to discuss regional security as diplomatic efforts gather pace to end the United States and Israel’s war on Iran.

During the meeting on Thursday, Rezaei also delivered a letter to Putin from Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, according to the Iranian state broadcaster Press TV.

Speaking after the meeting, Rezaei said the talks had focused on security arrangements in the region, as well as Russia’s support for ending what he called the US’s “aggression” against Iran.

“Important regional issues were discussed with Putin and significant conversations took place regarding the post-war period and regional security arrangements,” he said.

Other topics, he said, included plans to deepen energy cooperation, including building gas pipelines from Russia to Iran.

Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Khamenei had wanted him to deliver the message to Putin as soon as possible. The trip to Moscow had been planned nearly a month earlier, he said, but was postponed due to “daily discussions about the military situation in the region”.

He did not say what the message contained.

Khamenei said in a written statement on Wednesday that there should not be “even the slightest inclination towards submission” to the US. He also called for an “ever stronger” Iran to reach a “point of absolute deterrence”.

Seven conditions

Rezaei’s meeting with Putin came as Qatar steps up diplomatic efforts to end the war on Iran amid fears the US could renew attacks following its midterm elections.

In Tuesday’s vote, US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party lost control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate amid widespread anger over rising prices that many blame on the war on Iran.

Efforts to end the conflict have centred on the future status of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a US blockade of Iranian ports, sanctions against Iran, and a resumption of negotiations over the country’s nuclear programme.

Rezaei said on Thursday that Tehran would not hold talks with the US on ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz until Washington meets its seven demands.

“On the issue of diplomacy, we have announced seven conditions to the Americans. As long as they do not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations,” he said.

According to Rezaei, Putin reiterated that Russia is ready to provide support to end the war. Last month, Putin told Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia was prepared to “do everything” it could towards that end, Russian news agencies reported.

Rezaei said the discussion at the Kremlin also focused on the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to Iran, aimed at addressing Iran’s gas shortages and enabling Russia to sell its gas to countries neighbouring Iran.

He added that he had briefed Putin on a meeting held in Tehran in late October among Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan, and that the Russian leader had welcomed it.

“Like our Chinese friends, we believe that there should be regional arrangements and that foreign countries should not interfere in the security of the region,” he said.

The Kremlin did not immediately release its own account of the meeting, which took place in the Senate Palace, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

Separately, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held phone calls with his counterparts in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Turkiye and Jordan.

His calls focused on regional developments and ongoing diplomatic efforts to promote peace, Iranian state media reported.

Russia and Iran, both under heavy Western sanctions, have strengthened their diplomatic and military ties in recent years.

In January 2025, they signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty covering trade, military cooperation, science, culture and education.

The treaty took effect that October, but unlike Russia’s pact with North Korea, it does not include a mutual defence clause.

On Saturday, Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said Iran had bought Russian Su-35 fighter jets and expected to receive them after the war ends.

The planes were originally supposed to arrive before the fighting began, he told the Iranian news site Tabnak, and the necessary preparations and pilot training were complete.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed hope that Democratic gains in the United States midterm ⁠elections will bring ⁠more help for Kyiv, as European officials urged the new US Congress to ramp up pressure on Russia to end Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.

Zelenskyy’s comments on Wednesday came after American voters rebuked US President Donald Trump and his Republican Party, handing control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives to the Democratic Party.

In an interview with German broadcaster ZDF, Zelenskyy said the Democratic gains could work to Ukraine’s advantage.

“I am also grateful to the Republicans, but the Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine and providing assistance to Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said.  “They speak about renewing the connection between the United States and Europe… Therefore, there is hope that a balance of power will emerge, and that we will receive more support.”

Zelenskyy said more US aid could have an effect ‌on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“If Congress now speaks of strong financial support or military assistance, as Europe is doing and demonstrating today, then that will be something positive that will have an impact on Putin,” he told ZDF.

Zelenskyy has worked to repair a rocky relationship with Trump since an Oval Office meeting in February 2025 at which the US president accused his Ukrainian counterpart of being “ungrateful” for Washington’s aid.

Pressure on Russia

In recent weeks, Trump has made several moves favourable to Russia, including a deal to import Russian diesel.

Last month, he waived sanctions on Russia that Congress had overwhelmingly approved as part of legislation supporting Ukraine.

Ukraine has also accused Washington of delaying deliveries of interceptor missiles.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said she hoped the new Congress would “continue supporting Ukraine and also putting more pressure on Russia”.

“Europe as well as US, we are much stronger together,” Kallas said, expressing hope that joint pressure would force Moscow to end the war.

In Germany, leaders were divided. Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed scepticism on Wednesday that Trump would change course despite the Democrats’ sweeping victory.

“Quite frankly, over the last two years, Trump has largely governed by bypassing Congress. Why should that be any different now?” Merz said at an event in Berlin, a day after US voters handed Republicans a historic defeat.

His foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, was more hopeful. He said the “very clear” Democratic victory could create “a new opportunity to launch a fresh initiative” to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran. He added that he was “quite optimistic” that aid to Ukraine, which has been slashed under Trump, would get “more discussion” from US lawmakers of both parties.

Scepticism

Others in Europe cautioned that with Trump in office for two more years, Washington’s foreign policy was unlikely to change quickly.

The US president has berated European leaders, roiled their economies with tariffs, threatened to pull the US out of NATO, and said he wants to take over Greenland, a semiautonomous territory of Denmark.

“Our security and prosperity in Austria and Europe must not depend on how people in Kansas or Iowa vote,” Austria’s foreign minister, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, said. “That’s why we are strengthening our own defence capability and our own competitiveness.”

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia hoped Trump “will continue his peacemaking efforts”, regardless of the election result.

Democratic aides have told US media that helping Kyiv would be a priority when the party takes control of the congressional agenda in January. But diplomacy is moving faster.

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy, said Washington would bring Ukrainian and Russian delegations together in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11 to discuss ending the war and security arrangements for Ukraine.

Zelenskyy said on Wednesday that he has had detailed conversations with Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, ahead of the meeting.

“The negotiations must move forward at full throttle to bring this war to an end as quickly as possible. Ukraine is ready to take the necessary steps,” he wrote on X.

Russian strikes also cut power to Ukrainian cities as Moscow claims 700 Ukrainian drones downed across multiple regions.

Ukrainian drone strikes have killed three people in Russia’s Belgorod region, while attacks cut power to multiple cities in Ukraine and parts of Russian-occupied Crimea, officials reported.

Local Russian authorities in Belgorod, which borders Ukraine, announced the three deaths on Wednesday. In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s overnight attacks damaged power generation facilities and substations in nine regions leaving emergency outages in many cities.

Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed on Telegram that it hit two power stations in Ukraine’s Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions. Ukraine has repeatedly said Moscow is targeting its energy grid as temperatures drop before winter.

Overnight, Russian attacks on critical infrastructure caused hours-long power and water outages across Kyiv and surrounding regions.

Residents in the capital were urged to use public drinking water fountains, and emergency centres offering hot tea and power points to charge devices were set up in the worst-hit areas.

There were also power outages in Crimea, the peninsula Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, home to approximately 2.5 million residents. Russia’s Ministry of Energy said Ukrainian strikes hit energy infrastructure overnight and that temporary outage schedules were in force. It did not say how many households were affected.

But reports also indicated that Russia-held Crimea ordered power cuts after an accident outside the region, a Moscow-installed ⁠official said, according to the Reuters news agency.

‌In addition to the capital, Kyiv, Russia also hit the regions of Poltava, Dnipro, Kirovohrad and Rivne, Reuters reported, citing Ukraine’s emergency service and local officials.

In southern Russia, a Ukrainian drone attack started a fire at a major warehouse belonging to Ozon, known as Russia’s Amazon. The strikes were on an Ozon distribution facility in the town of Adygeysk, in the Republic of Adygea, regional head Murat Kumpilov said.

Ozon said all workers were evacuated and no one was hurt, and that it had removed damaged goods from its listings and rerouted deliveries.

Russia’s Defence Ministry also said it downed 709 Ukrainian drones across 14 regions, Crimea and the Black and Azov seas.

Kremlin response to US midterms

Amid ongoing fighting between Russia and Ukraine, Russia’s Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Kremlin hopes United States President Donald Trump will continue his peace efforts after a sweeping Democratic victory in the congressional midterms dealt a blow to the president.

“President Trump continues to exercise his powers. We sincerely hope that he will also continue his peacemaking efforts,” Peskov said in a statement.

Whether a change in Congress could hinder Trump’s peace efforts, Peskov said, as cited by the state-run Interfax news outlet, that it was “an internal matter for America”.

Democratic control of the legislature in January is expected to bring a more vocal pro-Kyiv majority in Congress that could pressure Trump to change tack, but there is little hope that the US will return as a major financial backer of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Zelenskyy awarded US First Lady Melania Trump the Order of Princess Olga, which honours women who have contributed to Ukraine, according to a presidential decree on Wednesday.

The decree noted Melania Trump’s “significant personal contribution” in providing support for humanitarian aid and children in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials say the US first lady played a pivotal role in organising a six-day local ceasefire to evacuate civilians from the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, which ended on Sunday.

The CAS ruled last week to overturn governing body’s exclusion of ‌Russia over its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The International ‌Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) has said it ⁠maintains its ⁠disagreement with a Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) decision to reinstate Russian teams, warning of “significant ⁠practical and sporting challenges”.

The statement on Wednesday follows announcements from Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the Czech Republic that ⁠their national teams will refuse to play against Russia at next year’s men’s World Championships in Germany.

The CAS ruled last week to overturn the governing body’s exclusion of ‌Russia from international competition following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

“As presented to the CAS, the immediate reintegration of Russian teams presents significant practical and sporting challenges, including visa and entry requirements, security provisions, logistical constraints and consequences for competition formats,” ⁠the IIHF said.

The decision has prompted ⁠widespread backlash. Latvia and Finland have also said their teams will not play Russia, while the Finnish city of Turku threatened to ⁠drop hosting duties for the 2028 World Junior Championship.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark ⁠Carney said Russia and Belarus ⁠will be barred from the upcoming World Junior Championship in Alberta. Moscow criticised the move, with Russian ambassador Oleg Stepanov telling state-run news agency TASS that Canada was “bringing politics even into junior hockey”.

The IIHF said it remains in dialogue with ‌national ‌associations, host authorities and organisers to determine the best path forward.

Czech carmaker Skoda Auto, the main sponsor of the ice hockey world championships, said on Wednesday it would “reassess” its sponsorship if Russia takes part in the annual tournament.

“If the Russian national team takes part in the tournament, we will reassess our involvement in the tournament and take further action,” Skoda told the AFP news agency in a statement.

It added that Russia’s return to the tournament was “incompatible with the values we have consistently upheld”.

Skoda Auto, a unit of Germany’s Volkswagen, has been the tournament’s official main sponsor since 1993. It also sponsors the Tour de France.

Its spokeswoman Ivana Povolna refused to specify the amount Skoda spends on the ice hockey world championships annually.

Skoda’s annual report for 2025 says the company lent 45 electric cars to the organisers, while its designers made the crystal trophy for the most valuable player of the tournament.

Ukraine’s president calls attack in Zaporizhia further proof that Russia does not want any ‌kind of de-escalation or justice.

A Russian ⁠bomb attack on an aid centre in Ukraine has killed 24 people, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported.

The strikes destroyed a school used as a humanitarian centre in the village of Komyshuvakha in the southeastern region of Zaporizhia, Zelenskyy said on Monday. Five other people are reported to have been injured.

“After the first air strike, there was a repeat strike with nine more bombs, ⁠directly on the shelter ⁠where people were gathered,” the president wrote on Telegram.

“The Russians could not have been unaware that ⁠every week residents who have remained in ⁠Komyshuvakha were receiving assistance ⁠aid right there. This is yet further proof that Russia does not want any ‌kind of de-escalation, any real justice.”

Footage posted by Ukrainian emergency services showed a building reduced to piles of smouldering rubble. Rescuers were shown working at the site.

Among those killed were a police officer and two State Emergency Service rescuers, regional Governor Mykhailo Semikin reported on Telegram.

He added that 27 altogether are considered missing.

“After the humanitarian operation in Oleshky, there was a moment when the next steps could have shown that progress toward peace was possible,” Zelenskyy said on social media. “With these killings, Russia is sending an entirely opposite signal: Russia is counting on more killings.”

Elsewhere in Ukraine, emergency services reported that drone strikes injured 12 people in the eastern Kharkiv region and damaged a refrigeration facility, greenhouses and residential buildings.

Five people were also reported injured in the Black Sea port city of Odesa, where a warehouse was targeted and homes were damaged.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that it shot down 212 Ukrainian drones overnight, while the head of Russia’s Samara region, Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, reported local air defences had repelled an aerial attack, without giving further details.

Russian Emergencies Ministry also says its mobile app suffered a ‘massive cyberattack’, leading to ‘false information’.

Ukraine’s Air Force has said its air raid alert app sent erroneous messages after allegedly being hacked by Russia.

Fake alerts warning of nuclear and chemical threats to areas in and around Kyiv were sent on Sunday, along with warnings of potential street combat. An erroneous message also said Russia’s hypersonic Oreshnik missile had been deployed.

“The air alert app appears to have been subjected to enemy influence,” the Ukrainian Air Force said on Telegram on Sunday. “There is no radiation threat! Stay calm and follow our updates on our channel.”

SPRAVDI, Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communications, blamed Russia for the hack in a post on X.

The raid alert app is used across Ukraine to warn people in real time of incoming Russian air attacks. A separate app, specifically for the Ukrainian capital, was working normally, according to Kyiv authorities.

Hours later, early on Monday morning, Russia’s Emergencies Ministry said its mobile app had been hit by a “massive cyberattack”.

The ministry said on Telegram that the attack led to the spread of “false information”.

Russia’s and Ukraine’s announcements follow the end of a truce between the two countries in Kherson.

The localised ceasefire, which began on Tuesday and ended on Sunday, was the longest of the war so far.

The longest multi-day truce between Russia and Ukraine, limited to Ukraine’s eastern Kherson region, has come to an end with no violations reported by either side, but also no sign of an extension.

The truce, which ended on Sunday night, allowed hundreds of besieged residents of the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky to be evacuated in a rare joint operation between Kyiv and Moscow.

Russian strikes elsewhere in Ukraine on Sunday left hundreds of thousands of households without power, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. In Russia, meanwhile, authorities reported major ⁠damage to an industrial site following Ukrainian drone attacks on the Nizhny Novgorod region.

The six-day localised ceasefire in the front-line Oleshky and the surrounding area was reached after mediation efforts by United States First Lady Melania Trump and with the involvement of Pope Leo XIV. It was set to expire at 10:59pm Ukraine time (20:59 GMT).

On Sunday, Ukraine’s military said it evacuated 167 more people from threatened areas of the southern Kherson region, including 22 children and 21 people with limited mobility requiring special assistance.

“Units of civil-military cooperation of the ‘South’ group of forces, in cooperation with representatives of local authorities, evacuated 167 civilians to safer points in the Kherson region,” Ukraine’s General Staff wrote on Telegram.

An estimated 2,000 civilians were in Oleshky when the temporary truce took hold. They were offered the choice to evacuate to Kyiv-controlled territory of Ukraine or territory occupied by Russia, or to remain in the city with replenished food and medical supplies.

“The ceasefire across Oleshky and the surrounding Kherson region has provided residents with the freedom to move, access to food, clean water, medicine, plus a renewed sense of dignity without the constant threat of attack,” Melania Trump said on social media. “Let Oleshky become the starting point for lasting peace.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, quoted by Russian news agencies, said Moscow had a positive view of how the operation was conducted in Oleshky, as well as of the coordination between the two countries’ human rights commissioners.

A Ukrainian official, however, told the AFP news agency that Russia reportedly refused an offer to extend the ceasefire after Kyiv’s Foreign Ministry proposed it.

Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022, Moscow’s forces have occupied most of the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the majority of territory in Ukraine’s southern Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

Residents urged to remain vigilant

Kherson Governor Oleksandr Prokudin urged residents to be vigilant as the expiry of the ceasefire neared on Sunday.

“I also strongly urge you not to visit the so-called ‘red zones’ – areas and settlements near the Dnipro [River],” Prokudin wrote on Telegram. “The intensity of Russian strikes there remains high, and the threat to life is extremely high.”

Residents in Kherson city, one of the remaining areas of the region still controlled by Ukraine, remained calm, despite knowing the quiet of the localised ceasefire would soon end.

“Don’t be afraid, keep holding on,” Oleksandr Knyha, head of the Mykola Kulish Kherson Regional Academic Music and Drama Theater, told the audience as he opened a concert.

Knyha is from Oleshky and used to commute from there to Kherson for work. He has not given up hope of returning home.

“That’s also what keeps me here,” he told the Associated Press news agency.

Fighting elsewhere

Elsewhere, Moscow and Kyiv have continued air strikes, with Zelenskyy saying on Sunday that Russia continues to target Ukraine’s energy systems before winter. Attacks on power infrastructure in four Ukrainian regions overnight cut electricity to hundreds of thousands of households, he said.

A Russian attack also killed three people, including a 13-year-old girl, in the Ukrainian region of Vinnytsia, when a drone hit the grounds of a vocational school, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said. Four others were wounded.

Russian drone attacks targeting Ukraine’s Kyiv region for a second consecutive day wounded a woman and damaged homes, energy infrastructure and a retail establishment, regional authorities said.

In its daily report on Sunday, Ukraine’s Air Force said that Moscow’s forces attacked Ukraine with 433 drones overnight, of which 371 were destroyed or suppressed.

Meanwhile, more than 100 Ukrainian drones were shot down over the skies of Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region east of Moscow, Governor Gleb Nikitin said on Sunday.

The attack sparked a blaze at the Kstovo oil refinery, Russian media outlets reported, sharing images of black plumes of smoke over the horizon.

Zelenskyy said Kyiv also struck a factory for missile components and air defence facilities in Russia’s southern Rostov region.

“We are justly defending ourselves against Russian aggression and doing everything to reduce Russia’s capability to continue it,” Zelenskyy said.

Starved and exhausted residents of Oleshky arrive in Ukraine after months of isolation, but some stay behind.

Starved and exhausted residents of the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky have crossed into Ukraine in a major evacuation operation of civilians, under the first humanitarian truce of its kind in more than four years of Moscow’s war.

The six-day ceasefire covering the town was reached with mediation efforts by US First Lady Melania Trump and help from Pope Leo XIV. It is the longest local pause in fighting since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbour in 2022.

“Ukrainian citizens from Oleshky have crossed the Ukrainian border in the Chernihiv region. All of them will receive the assistance they need,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X, thanking the United States and the first lady for mediating.

“Further steps toward de-escalation and real progress toward peace are also needed,” he added.

Evacuees wrapped in blue and yellow Ukrainian flags stepped off buses at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border and reunited with family members.

Ukrainian officials met the evacuees with posters reading “You’re not alone” and “We embrace with our hearts”, while residents from nearby villages lined the highway waving flags and flashlights to greet them.

Forced to eat grass

Supply routes to Oleshky had been disrupted by fighting and drones. According to some residents, food deliveries were stopped in May, pushing hundreds of people into starvation.

One evacuee, an elderly man in a wheelchair, told the Reuters news agency that he had lost 20kg (44lbs) over the past year, becoming so weak he required hospital treatment.

Another evacuee, Svitlana Yermakova, told Reuters they had to eat grass to survive.

“We chopped grass and squash… just to hold on,” she said, adding that she risked riding by bicycle through minefields to a nearby village to get food for herself and her dog.

To reach Ukrainian-held territory, Oleshky residents had to take a complicated route to leave the devastated town just a few kilometres from the front line.

They first crossed Crimea by bus to the Russian town of Anapa before flying to Belarus, from where they crossed into Ukraine.

Ambulances lined the street, and several large military tents were erected, where hot meals, tea and medical aid were provided.

Russian and Ukrainian officials say the ceasefire in Oleshky has held since Tuesday, allowing them to de-mine the roads and bring food, medicines and other supplies into the town again.

The truce is due to end on Sunday evening.

Some stay behind

Some residents have decided to remain in Oleshky, despite the ongoing lack of gas, electricity and running water.

Russian Human Rights Commissioner Yana Lantratova said living conditions in the occupied Oleshky remained difficult, pledging she would continue to work with her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Lubinets, to help those who stayed.

“The mission has come to an end,” she said on Telegram. “We have agreed to carry out regular humanitarian missions, which is a very important step.”

Oleshky had a pre-war population of about 24,000, which plunged to an estimated 1,700 before the evacuation.

Ukrainian officials have not said exactly how many residents were evacuated or how many remained.

Despite the ceasefire in Oleshky, fighting rages on in other parts of the front, with Russia and Ukraine keeping up drone attacks against each other.

Both sides signed a digital trade deal, as Trump’s trade threats push Washington’s allies to seek closer ties elsewhere.

The European Union and Canada have launched what they described as an Alliance for the Future, as Ottawa prepares to become the bloc’s first so-called “associate member”.

Prime Minister Mark Carney hosted the Canada-EU summit in Montreal and signed a digital trade deal, alongside other agreements. Also at the Friday summit were European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.

The term “associate member” has no legal basis and is contested by some EU states. However, its use underscores the desire of Canada and the EU to forge closer relations, as United States President Donald Trump continues to threaten Washington’s traditional allies with trade tariffs if they do not play by his rules.

“Canada and the EU are working to establish the closest possible partnership, which will be far from full membership, but which will make Canada the first associate member of the European Union,” Carney posted on X.

“Today in Montreal, we have taken a major step forward by establishing more than twenty measures that will increase affordability, create opportunities and ensure our sovereignty on both sides of the Atlantic.”

In a joint statement following the summit, the two sides announced an agreement under which the European Investment Bank will invest in critical Canadian resources, particularly raw minerals. They also said they would advance cooperation on artificial intelligence security and safety.

“A more dangerous and divided world has fundamentally changed the requirements of sovereignty. It is no longer enough for nations to feed, fuel and defend ourselves,” the statement said.

It added that “true sovereignty” requires secure access to critical minerals, semiconductors, payment systems, energy, vaccines, space-based communications and AI.

Ukraine was also on the meeting agenda, with Carney announcing Canada’s participation in the EU’s 90 billion euro ($103bn) support loan for Kyiv. Carney said Canada would make an initial contribution of 500 million euros ($558m).

Opportunities for students in Canada and the EU were also discussed. Both sides said they would launch negotiations aimed at deepening Ottawa’s participation in Erasmus+, the EU’s flagship student exchange programme.

Carney and Trump are currently engaged in a trade dispute, with talks under way to reach a deal between the two countries.

A symbol of independent journalism, Novaya Gazeta has been classed as a ‘foreign agent’ by Moscow.

Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta has announced it will shut down, citing pressure from the authorities.

The independent outlet’s editorial board said in a statement released on Friday that the newspaper has been forced to end its operations.

The Russian media has come under increased scrutiny from the state amid Moscow’s war on Ukraine. The authorities recently searched the home of Novaya Gazeta’s senior editor and arrested the editor-in-chief.

“The newspaper is gone. The Russian authorities and … intelligence services forced the editorial staff to cease operations,” the editorial board said in the statement, which was entitled: “We were killed.”

Viewed as a relative bastion of independent journalism in Russia, Novaya Gazeta has been classed as a “foreign agent” by Moscow, a label used to stifle dissent.

“Novaya Gazeta is ceasing to exist,” editor-in-chief Sergei Sokolov said in a video statement published on YouTube. “On November 9 we will turn off the lights in our home, where we have lived for 30 years. We will shut down the servers and leave.”

Earlier this month, Sokolov was taken in for questioning as Russian authorities searched his home due, they said, to a link to a criminal case involving his colleague Oleg Roldugin.

Roldugin was arrested in April and charged with “unlawful access to computerised information”.

“How far will the Kremlin’s relentless campaign against Novaya Gazeta go?” asked media watchdog Reporters Without Borders in a statement after Sokolov was arrested on October 15.

“Six of its journalists and staff members have been murdered, its newsroom has been raided, its journalists have been prosecuted, and the publication has been designated a ‘foreign agent’,” the press freedom organisation noted.

The forced closure of Novaya Gazeta marks another escalation in Russia’s crackdown on press freedom, with few independent media outlets or journalists left in the country, as censorship levels and arrests of regime critics have skyrocketed since it launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The newspaper had already trimmed production inside Russia after Moscow invaded Ukraine, as authorities revoked its media licence.

The paper’s then editor-in-chief, Dmitry Muratov, jointly won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021 for his “efforts to safeguard freedom of expression” at the helm of the paper.

Ethiopia has received 12 Russian Su-35 fighter jets and will acquire four S-400 air defence batteries, in a deal experts say strengthens Moscow’s foothold in the Horn of Africa while bolstering Addis Ababa’s military amid conflict at home and tensions with neighbouring Eritrea.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the deal in Moscow during the two-day Russia-Africa Summit.

“I value the friendly relations between Russia and Ethiopia,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a statement. “Russia and Ethiopia stand together in international affairs.”

Experts say the agreement builds on decades of military cooperation, offering Moscow arms revenue and diplomatic influence while allowing Ethiopia to strengthen its armed forces amid its ongoing conflict in Tigray.

Here is what we know:

What weapons is Ethiopia acquiring?

Abiy said Ethiopia had taken delivery of its first 12 Su-35s under an earlier agreement with Russia, with four S-400 batteries to follow, but did not say when the air defence systems would arrive.

The aircraft would expand an air force already equipped with Russian fighter jets. The S-400 systems would complement this existing fleet by helping the military defend itself against aerial threats, experts say.

“They would be best used against conventional air threats,” Benedict Manzin, a lead analyst on the Middle East and Africa at risk consultancy Sibylline, told Al Jazeera. “In a war with Eritrea, they could be used against Eritrea’s limited air force and drones.”

However, air defences do not provide protection against every kind of attack.

“As we have seen in Ukraine, conventional air defence systems can be overwhelmed by small, cheap drones,” he said.

Why does Russia want closer ties with Ethiopia?

The relationship predates the current competition for influence in Africa.

“Russia has been engaged in Ethiopia for decades, part of the legacy of the Cold War,” Manzin said.

The Soviet Union backed Ethiopia’s former communist government. Today’s cooperation builds on those foundations, with the two countries having signed military agreements intended to improve the Ethiopian armed forces’ capabilities through technology, knowledge and training, according to the Ethiopian News Agency.

Commercial interests also matter.

“Russia is also in the business of making money through arms sales,” Manzin said. “This is one of Russia’s primary exports to Africa.”

Weapons sales provide revenue while sustaining relationships with governments that require training, maintenance and replacement equipment. But the partnership extends beyond defence.

Abiy said his talks with Putin covered nuclear energy, health and trade, alongside bilateral and multilateral cooperation, while in a statement, Putin said bilateral trade exceeded $1.3bn in January-September, more than twice the figure for all of 2025.

He identified energy, agriculture, industry and education among potential areas for further cooperation.

Ethiopia’s size also makes it attractive to competing powers, with experts saying that because it is Africa’s second-most populous country, it offers a substantial market.

“Everyone engages a bit, and Ethiopia tries to maximise its gains,” Manzin said.

Does this mean Ethiopia is turning away from the West?

Manzin suggested Ethiopia is widening its options rather than committing exclusively to Moscow.

“African states are aware that they are a focus of geopolitical competition,” he said.

That competition gives governments room to seek weapons, investment and diplomatic backing from different partners. Ethiopia’s relationship with Russia coexists with a significant Chinese presence and continuing Western investment in the country.

“China has a huge presence in Ethiopia, and Russian arms have always been a huge factor,” Manzin said. Moscow is seeking to turn those established connections into broader influence as Western sanctions over its war in Ukraine constrain its international relationships.

Russia supplied 15 percent of African imports of major weapons in 2021–2025, behind the United States at 19 percent and China at 17 percent, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Could the weapons be used in Tigray?

In his statement, Abiy thanked Putin for ensuring the aircraft were delivered a year ahead of schedule and said the equipment would strengthen Ethiopia’s ability to “preemptively deter aggression”.

The delivery comes amid renewed fighting in Tigray, a separate rebellion in Amhara and concerns about a possible conflict with Eritrea.

“Ethiopia is buying a lot of aircraft,” Manzin said. “The timing comes as Ethiopia is going through conflict in Tigray, with speculation about war with Eritrea.”

He cautioned against assuming the latest battlefield developments directly prompted purchases negotiated earlier.

“Aircraft are helpful regardless, as they are using aircraft and the air force heavily during any suppression,” he said.

What’s the conflict about?

Fighting between Ethiopia’s federal army and Tigrayan forces intensified in late September, in effect unravelling the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended a devastating two-year war.

Each side has blamed the other for renewed violence. Tensions grew following the formation of a seven-group alliance seeking to overthrow Abiy’s government and establish a transitional administration.

Government troops and allied forces entered Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, earlier in October after Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) fighters withdrew.

Addis Ababa subsequently installed a six-month caretaker administration, but rebel commanders have promised to continue fighting.

The United States midterm elections appear stacked against the ruling Republicans, with polls suggesting the Democrats average an eight-point lead in the House of Representatives and the Senate. But if Democrats take one or both houses, could they affect upcoming elections in Europe?

Not fundamentally, analysts and observers have told Al Jazeera, but besides a welcome improvement in transatlantic relations, they point to two potentially adverse effects.

First, a Democratic Congress might produce complacency among Europeans regarding their own far-right movements.

Second, it might spur US President Donald Trump to raise pressure on Ukraine to make a deal it doesn’t want to make with Russia.

“If the Democrats win the House, let alone both houses, it will be read as, ‘you see democracies bounce back,’” said Catherine Fieschi, a nonresident scholar at Carnegie Europe, specialising in European far-right politics. It would introduce “the idea that these things don’t mean the advent of a fascist regime”, she said.

From her vantage point in Paris, Fieschi said she imagines a Democratic win leading to “a whole discussion about whether we should fear a Marine Le Pen election as much as some people say we should, or whether, in fact, it’s swings and roundabouts and, at some point, if people are really bad and really incompetent, then elections right the way,” she said.

French right-wing politician Marine Le Pen is currently leading the field in polling for presidential elections scheduled for April 18, with surveys indicating she has about 34 percent of the popular vote.

There is a precedent for the complacency Fieschi alludes to. In June 2025, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a think tank, polled Europeans following Trump’s first six months in office. Clear majorities in Western Europe said the US political system was broken. In Eastern Europe, majorities said it was working well – though they were weighted towards right-wing voters.

Greek Migration Minister Thanos Plevris warned against giving too much credit to the US for what Europeans think and do, however.

He said he believes European public opinion hardened against asylum and economic migration independently, but the US marked the shift by expressing it more violently, with military deportation flights and armed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents sweeping American cities.

“I think there was a European about-turn on migration. We saw this in Germany, which had a welcoming attitude [to refugees] for many years, and they went to a more controlled policy. All northern European governments saw societies change,” he told Al Jazeera.

“But the US provided a change in tone, from induction and integration and benefaction to deterrence, border protection, increased returns and consequences if asylum is denied. I do think that pivot played a role in Europe,” Plevris added.

The fallout for Ukraine

Should French voters decide that the only way out is through electing Le Pen – “like some kind of strong medicine that would wake us up to what we might lose”, as Fieschi put it – they would have to contend with three controversial propositions – cutting French financial contributions to the European Union’s federal budget to pay for earlier retirement, cutting military aid to Ukraine and possibly leaving the single currency, the euro, in favour of a devalued franc.

Any one of those policy moves would be a major setback for the European project, which has coalesced around trade, money and now security. A cut in assistance to Ukraine would remove 3.5 percent of its foreign military aid, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker, which other allies would have to make up.

At the same time, “we could end up in a situation where Trump is basically clinching deals with Putin as fast as he can,” said Fieschi, referring to the US-Russian strategy to coerce Ukraine into a peace agreement that involves sacrificing its eastern Donbas region – something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said would be a strategic error leading to renewed war, and which a majority of Ukrainians are against.

Trump has already leveraged US early warning on incoming ballistics and Starlink satellite navigation against Ukraine. He has twice echoed Russian calls for Zelenskyy to be replaced.

Compounding this renewed pressure from a beleaguered White House, Russia could intensify its “all-domain war”, which many European governments believe it is already waging against them, said Victoria Vdovychenko, a Ukraine expert at Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics.

“Cognitive warfare never stopped on the European continent, and Russians are already using existing vulnerabilities to the utmost,” she told Al Jazeera. “I hope that the European partners will be staying very strong.”

What Europeans think

Trump’s abandonment of the world order the US and Europe established after World War II, his disregard for democracy and human rights, and his betrayal of Ukraine have already transformed European public opinion, observers say.

Only 31 percent of Europeans see the US as Europe’s “most trustworthy ally”, down from 51 percent in 2024, when Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, was in office, according to a poll for the German think tank Bertelsmann Stiftung.

Seventy-three percent of Europeans across all age groups say Europe should “go its own way” rather than continue a close cooperation with the US, up from 63 percent in 2024, and that figure includes a clear majority among those on the centre-right and right.

In this year’s Spring Eurobarometer, a regular pulse-taking conducted by the European Commission, 68 percent of respondents wanted the EU’s role in protecting Europeans from global crises and security risks to increase, while 39 percent wanted it to be a top priority.

In a June poll for the European Council on Foreign Relations, the description of the US as an “ally” fell from 22 percent in November 2024 to 11 percent across all territories polled in Eastern and Western Europe.

In a June poll for the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank, 76 percent of people polled in 36 countries, of which nine were EU members, expressed no confidence in Trump, and 57 percent expressed unfavourable views of the US.

It would appear that such shifts against the US and especially Republicans, formed over two Trump terms, would be difficult to reverse in a single congressional election, especially with a Russian war ongoing in Europe.