Russia-Ukraine war

FIFA’s inaugural U-15 World Cup in October has been opened to all of its member associates, paving way for Russia’s return.

A ‌Russian team may be allowed to participate ⁠in ⁠a FIFA event for the first time since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine after ⁠football’s global authority said its inaugural U-15 World Cup and Festival, set to be ⁠held in Azerbaijan in October, is open to all FIFA member associations.

FIFA banned Russia from international competition in February 2022 after it invaded ‌Ukraine, but it lifted the suspension from the country’s U-17 boys’ and girls’ teams the next year.

However, Russian teams have remained absent from U-17 tournaments organised by FIFA and UEFA as several European countries, including Ukraine ⁠and England, continue to boycott ⁠Russia over its ongoing invasion of its neighbour.

“The first edition will be open to boys’ teams from all FIFA ⁠member associations, the second instalment in 2027 will feature girls’ ⁠teams only,” FIFA said on ⁠Wednesday about the U-15 World Cup and Festival.

“From 2028 onwards, all member associations will be invited to participate with ‌both their boys’ and girls’ U-15 teams in two separate competitions.”

The U-15 event will kick ‌off ‌on October 22 and conclude nine days later.

Several Russian regions are facing fuel shortages because of Ukrainian attacks.

A Russian missile attack on the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih has killed at least three people, as Moscow struggles with the economic strain of the four-and-a-half-year Russia-Ukraine war.

Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the Kryvyi Rih defence council, said in a post on Telegram on Tuesday that 25 people had been wounded in the attack, which he said used a cluster munition warhead.

“People died within 200 metres [660 feet] of each other because of this barbaric weapon,” Vilkul said, adding that a day of mourning would be marked on Wednesday.

Kyiv has previously accused Moscow of using cluster munitions, which scatter into smaller explosives when dropped.

Reacting to the attack, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for more international pressure on Moscow to end the war and for quicker supplies of air defence systems.

“Every delay in implementing air defence agreements, every delay in supplies to protect Ukraine and Ukrainians is in effect a loss of life,” he wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine announced on Tuesday that its forces had targeted a railway bridge, a power plant and other key infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Weakened rouble

Over the past few months, Russia and Ukraine have significantly ramped up attacks. As Moscow launches barrages of strikes on Ukraine, Kyiv in turn has targeted Russian refineries and infrastructure with its own drones.

Ukraine’s drone attacks have led to fuel shortages in Russia. Many regions across the country have reported restrictions on fuel sales and rising prices for oil products, creating concerns about the stability of Russia’s economy.

On Monday, the Moscow Exchange stock index fell by five percent before it rebounded slightly. It is still around its lowest level since March 2023, while the rouble weakened past the 75-mark against the US dollar for the first time since May 6.

The Kremlin dismissed concerns about the rouble’s weakness.

“The stability of the Russian economy, macroeconomic stability, is absolutely ensured,” government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, efforts to end the war have remained effectively frozen as United States President Donald Trump has shifted his focus to Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told foreign envoys in Moscow on Tuesday that the Americans seemed to be “abandoning any claim to the role of an objective mediator and are instead pursuing a course of escalating sanctions pressure on Russia”.

Gas sales in Russian-controlled Crimea have halted after Ukrainian drone strikes on the peninsula’s supply route. Drivers are now looking for other modes of transport.

The move comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was stripped of Poland’s top honour.

Top Ukrainian officials have said they are returning Polish awards after President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was stripped of Warsaw’s top honour in a dispute between the allies over World War II massacres.

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov; Ukraine’s ambassador to Warsaw, Vasyl Bodnar; and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Saturday they would relinquish awards bestowed by Poland.

“Our nations have long-standing relations and ⁠different pages of history – both ⁠heroic and tragic,” Budanov posted on social media. “However, this should be an occasion for deep reflection, not crude political speculation.”

Zelenskyy angered many in Poland over his naming of a military unit after a Ukrainian paramilitary organisation accused of massacring Poles during World War II.

In a decree on May 26, Zelenskyy named a military unit the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) – the name of a group that operated in the 1940s and 1950s.

On Friday, Polish President Karol Nawrocki announced he would strip Zelenskyy of the Order of the White Eagle, which was bestowed on him by Former Polish President Andrzej Duda in 2023 for services to security, resilience and the defence of human rights.

For most in Poland, “the Ukrainian Insurgent Army remains above all a formation responsible for cruel crimes against the citizens of the Polish Republic during World War II,” Nawrocki said on social media, adding that the decision would not end Poland’s support for Ukraine against Russia.

Ukrainian officials criticised the decision as one that played into Russia’s hands. Budanov, the Ukrainian Presidential Office chief, wrote on Telegram that it was “an unfriendly act toward our people” and “a gift to the Moscow aggressor, which will certainly use it against both of our countries”.

Foreign Minister Sybiha called it a “strategic mistake” while Bodnar said it was “especially painful” as Ukraine fends off Russian attacks.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a political rival of President Nawrocki, urged both sides to “calm tensions” in a post on X on Friday.

Conflict between Poland and Ukraine “delights Putin and shocks our allies”, he said.

The UPA fought against both Nazi German and Soviet forces, but is also accused of mass killings of Poles in Nazi-occupied areas. Ukrainians say UPA and Polish underground forces launched large-scale attacks and reprisals against each other that led to deaths among Ukrainian and Polish civilians.

Russia’s oil refineries have been heavily targeted, damaging its energy facilities and the country’s fuel crisis.

Ukrainian drones have hit a Moscow oil refinery for the second time ⁠this week while Russia fired missiles at Kyiv, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks support from the United States and Europe to reach a deal to end the war.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its air defences shot down 555 Ukrainian drones over several regions overnight, with almost 200 intercepted as they were approaching the Russian capital.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said several drones hit an oil refinery.

“Air defence forces continue to repel a massive attack. Several drones managed to reach the Moscow oil refinery,” Sobyanin said, adding that a shopping centre also suffered minor damage.

The attack on the oil facility is the second this week, after a drone attack on Tuesday halted operations at the refinery, according to the Reuters news agency, as widespread damage to Russian energy facilities worsens the country’s fuel crisis.

The regional governor said that in the surrounding Moscow region, a high-rise residential building, an industrial facility and a number of private houses were also damaged in the drone attack. The Sheremetyevo airport, Moscow’s busiest, suspended flights and evacuated people, as several sought shelter in the car park, the airport said in a statement.

Kyiv meanwhile came under a second Russian air attack this week, as ballistic missiles were unleashed on the Ukrainian capital, city officials said. Earlier this week, a major attack on Kyiv by Russia killed 11 people and damaged a UNESCO-listed 1,000-year-old monastery, drawing condemnation from European leaders. Russia denied striking the monastery.

The attacks come as Zelenskyy works to pressure Russia into negotiating an end to its more than four-year-long war. Zelenskyy said he had spoken to US President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel Macron and other leaders from G7 countries to coordinate ways to end the ⁠war.

G7 leaders pledged to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences and increase pressure on Moscow’s war economy, including by tightening sanctions on the Russian oil and gas sectors.

Trump told reporters he was “gonna do whatever I can” to end the war.

Zelenskyy said he received important commitments from the G7, including “more air defence missiles along with licenses to produce them, and a winter support package.”

“Importantly, the US is ready to provide backstop across these lines of effort,” Zelenskyy wrote on X. “It is key that everything discussed be implemented. Russia must come to learn that its war will never be normalised.”

Kyiv, Ukraine – After almost seven hours in a kilometres-long, snail-paced line made up of hundreds of cars at a gas station near Crimea’s administrative capital, Simferopol, Dilyaver was lucky enough to buy gas.

He paid $22 for 20 litres (5.3 gallons).

“There were teenagers running around offering gas for 300 rubles [$4.2], one almost got beaten up by angry guys in the line,” the 52-year-old Crimean Tatar man told Al Jazeera on Saturday.

He withheld his last name and personal details because an interview with foreign media could land him in jail.

Judging by licence plates and accents, some of the men in the line were Russian tourists who decided to cut their vacations short and flee via the $4bn, 19km (12-mile) long Crimean Bridge, Dilyaver said.

“The [tourism] season is ruined, that’s bad news for almost everyone here,” he said, referring to the annual arrival of millions of tourists that feeds many on the arid peninsula, where agriculture has suffered after Kyiv dammed a key water artery.

Dilyaver does not know when he will fill up his rundown Skoda again because he expects fuel shortages to get worse.

But the fuel problem is just the tip of the iceberg of problems Crimea has been facing.

“Crimea’s key problem is not because there’s no fuel,” Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University who analyses the Russia-Ukraine war, told Al Jazeera. “The problem is that Ukrainian drones began barraging over the peninsula’s domestic roads.”

Since mid-May, Ukrainian drones have attacked hundreds of trucks carrying fuel, ammunition and other supplies from southwestern Russia to Crimea via the “land bridge” through occupied Ukrainian regions.

The drones, whose operators sit in bunkers up to 200km (124 miles) away from the “land bridge”, also pepper roads with mines that weigh only 500 grams (1.1 pounds) and have magnetic or motion sensors.

Cargo ships trying to get fuel and food to Crimea or transporting steel and grain from occupied regions of southeastern Ukraine have also been attacked.

The attacks “illustrate Crimea’s vulnerability”. Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera. “Ukraine can regularly, daily strike military, infrastructure sites in Crimea … Ukraine turned Crimea into an island surrounded by war and fire.”

‘Just the beginning’

Ukraine’s Third Special Battalion said earlier this month that its drone operators have “taken aerial control” of the strategic supply route from the occupied southern city of Melitopol to the Chongar bridge in northern Crimea.

“That’s just the beginning! There’s more to come!” the Battalion said in a Facebook video with footage of exploding and burning trucks.

Chongar is a key entry to Crimea that can barely be called a peninsula because Sivash, also known as The Rotten Sea, a labyrinth of lagoons, salt marshes and wetlands, divides it from mainland Ukraine, leaving only three strips of land wide and firm enough for roads and a railway.

Just more than a week ago, the Chongar bridge was damaged by drones and is only capable of letting light vehicles through, while buses and trucks take a pontoon bridge nearby.

“The bridge is open, the damaged part is cordoned off, one lane is operational, there are no traffic jams because there’s few cars,” a driver who passed through it wrote on Telegram.

Ukrainian drones also struck fuel depots inside Crimea – along with air defence systems, airfields, military bases, command centres and the facilities of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that relocated to the Russian port of Novorossiysk after losing at least a third of its vessels.

After Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Moscow spent billions of dollars to militarise Crimea by deploying frigates and diesel submarines; advanced S-400 air defence systems; tens of thousands of servicemen; and building new military bases, airfields, radar stations, garrisons and living quarters.

“Putin turned Crimea into a military base, and thus made it the most vulnerable place in the war with Ukraine,” Fesenko said.

The Crimean bridge alone cannot handle the redirected traffic as trucks weighing more than 1.5 tonnes are no longer allowed to pass through.

Early Monday, a Ukrainian drone struck a moving train, killing one of the drivers and prompting Moscow to halt the movement of nine other trains.

Their passengers are being evacuated by buses, Kremlin-appointed authorities said.

Days earlier, one of Russia’s most outspoken warmongers raised his voice about the panic in Crimea.

“What’s happening at Crimean gas stations is a real nightmare for locals and servicemen,” Igor Girkin, an ex-intelligence officer who led the first group of Moscow-backed separatists in southeastern Ukraine in 2014, wrote on Telegram on June 1.

Kyiv “acts brazenly … trying to cut off the peninsula and our southern [military] groups from fuel supply,” Girkin, who was sentenced to four years in jail in 2024 after lambasting Moscow’s military failures in Ukraine, wrote from behind bars.

“To some, Crimea seems like a resort. No, today it’s a front-line region,” he wrote.

And to Crimean Tatars such as Dilyaver, what’s happening around them is part of a decades-old struggle for survival in Moscow’s shadow.

Since the annexation, his community of about 250,000, or about one-tenth of Crimea’s population, has been under constant pressure.

Masked officers break into the houses of community leaders, activists or observant Muslims at dawn to search for “extremist materials” that in many cases turn out to be religious texts, including The Quran for Children.

Arrests and trials follow – more than 100 Tatars have been sentenced to jail for “extremism,” “separatism” and “terrorism.”

Another dozen went missing without a trace and are believed to have been abducted and killed by Russian intelligence.

Dilyaver owned a tiny grocery store near Simferopol.

But he faced higher taxes and visits by government inspectors who demanded bribes, so Dilyaver, who also suffered a scam, closed the store. He barely makes ends meet now by selling deep-fried meat and cheese pies next to a bus stop.

Dilyaver’s parents were born in Soviet Uzbekistan after the 1944 deportation of every Crimean Tatar by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, who thought their cultural ties to Turkiye posed a threat to the USSR’s security.

“We have a saying, ‘If a Russian lives next to you, keep an axe ready,’” Dilyaver’s 77-year-old mother Gulsum told Al Jazeera. “We suffered from them so much, and it’s far from over.”

Ukrainian attacks triggered food shortages.

Macaroni, flour, canned meat, fish and vegetables have already been swept off the shelves in some stores and supermarkets, Dilyaver said.

“The Soviet mentality is still at work. If there’s a problem – buy buckwheat,” he quipped, about the cheap and nutritious grain that symbolises resilience in the former Soviet Union.

British armed forces intercepted an oil tanker believed to be part of Russia’s sanctioned shadow fleet. The oil tanker ‘SMYRTOS’ was taken in an first-ever operation by the British military in the English Channel.

Three people have been killed in the border region between Russia and Ukraine, according to officials, as the two sides launched attacks on each other in the latest exchange of fire.

In Russia, two civilians were killed and two wounded in the region of Bryansk after Kyiv struck the settlement of Suzemka with artillery, Acting Governor Egor Kovalchuk said in a post on Telegram on Friday.

A ⁠drone ⁠also hit an apartment building in Russia’s ⁠central region of Tatarstan, ⁠injuring three people, while industrial facilities were ‌hit, regional head Rustam Minnikhanov said on the Telegram messaging app.

Production work was ⁠not suspended, ⁠however, he added, but did not identify ⁠any plants. ⁠The region ⁠is home to key oil processing and petrochemical ‌facilities, among others.

⁠Russia’s ⁠city of Togliatti, home to ⁠the country’s biggest ⁠carmaker Avtovaz, also came under a drone attack overnight, Samara ‌region Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev said on Telegram.

“Attention! Drone attack regime ⁠for Togliatti,” he ⁠wrote. Togliatti is a city ⁠on the ⁠Volga River some 800 km (500 miles) southeast ‌of Moscow.

These strikes are what Ukraine refers to as a “logistics lockdown”, said Al Jazeera’s Audrey MacAlpine, reported from Kyiv. She explained that they are mid-range strikes anywhere over 30 kilometres (17 miles) from the front line, using long-range drones and sometimes heavy weaponry to target things like oil refineries, bridges, logistics, and roads as a means of halting Russia’s front-line operations.

At the same time, she said, Ukraine also launches what it calls “long-range sanctions” against Russian targets – a “tongue-in-cheek term … that we’ve seen escalating over the past several months, where Ukraine is targeting Russia’s oil refineries and oil industry,” MacAlpine explained.

In Ukraine, a drone attack in the border region of Sumy caused casualties.

A 44-year-old woman working as a rail station operator died on her way to a shelter during the strike, according to the head of Ukrainian Railways, Oleksandr Pertsovkyi.

Another woman, a station attendant, was wounded in the attack, Pertsovkyi added.

Three people were wounded in separate attacks on Ukraine’s southern Mykolaiv region.

“We’ve seen continual threats by Russia before massive attacks, and we have certainly seen the results of those actions here in cities like Kyiv, where ballistics continue to be the Achilles heel for Ukraine”, MacAlpine said.

Russian fuel shortages after Ukrainian attacks

In recent months, Kyiv has carried out an increasing number of attacks on Russia and Russian-occupied territories.

On Thursday, fuel stations on the Russian-held Crimean Peninsula ran out of petrol after a Ukrainian campaign against the peninsula’s supply lines escalated.

A witness in Sevastopol, the peninsula’s largest city, told the Reuters news agency there was no fuel at most local petrol stations, with supplies struggling to keep up with a rationing regime imposed in recent weeks.

Another witness, in the resort town of Yevpatoriya, ⁠said there was a long queue outside the only petrol station open there.

Ukraine has been intensifying drone attacks on supply lines to the peninsula, which Russia seized from Kyiv in 2014. Local authorities have imposed fuel rationing regimes, with some foodstuffs also running short.

Besides Russian-held Crimea, only ‌two regions in Siberia have officially confirmed the shortages.

Most other regions have said the situation is under control, and that some disruptions were caused by panic buying. Moscow has denied there were any problems with fuel supplies.

• Population: 1.37 million
• Defence spending: 5.4 percent of GDP
• Border with Russia: 338km (210 miles)

Estonia, the smallest of the Baltic states, has experienced some dramatic incidents.

In September, Tallinn said Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace for 12 minutes. NATO scrambled Italian F-35s stationed in Estonia as part of the Baltic Air Policing mission. Russia denied violating Estonian airspace.

In March, a stray Ukrainian military drone crashed into Estonia’s Auvere power station.

In April and May, Estonian authorities said drones entered their airspace, grounding flights and prompting warnings issued to citizens.

Estonia’s intelligence services have said that the country does not believe Russia is preparing an imminent military attack on NATO, but that Moscow may be rebuilding its forces for the long term while engaging in hybrid attacks through drones, cyber operations, and sabotage.

Tallinn claims one such hybrid method is the so-called “Narva People’s Republic”, a pro-Russian separatist narrative that casts Estonia’s Russian-speaking border region as a distinct political entity, echoing the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” used by Moscow as a pretext for intervention in Ukraine.

Estonian authorities say it is part of a disinformation campaign rather than a credible separatist movement.

Its military has, at times, been bellicose in its statements.

In May, Estonia’s Lieutenant General Andrus Merilo argued that Russia is rebuilding its military much faster than many Europeans realise and that Estonia must be ready for a renewed military threat within the next few years, marking 2027 as a critical benchmark for readiness.

In September 2024, in an interview with the Estonian public broadcaster ERR, Estonian General Vahur Karus stated that if Moscow showed signs of preparing for an attack, Estonia could strike the Russians first.

“Our capability to neutralise the enemy on its own territory is crucial,” he said.

However, the government’s rhetoric has been more measured.

In April, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy suggested in an interview that a new wave of Russian mobilisation may be used to launch an attack on the Baltic states.

But Estonian politicians, including the foreign minister, warned that the remarks echoed Moscow’s objective of stoking fears and made cooperation difficult.

“We do not see Russia concentrating its forces or preparing in any way militarily to attack NATO or the Baltic states; rather, it is the opposite. Russia is not in a very strong position on the Ukrainian front, and economically as well,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told ERR.

“No one is in the streets panicking,” Tony Lawrence, a research fellow at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, told Al Jazeera.

The air incursions have “put people on edge”, but there is a sense that Russian forces are too preoccupied in Ukraine, he said.

The drone entered Latvian airspace due to ‘Russian electronic warfare’, the military says.

NATO fighters have scrambled to shoot down a drone that entered Latvian airspace from Russia.

The Latvian military said on Monday that French aircraft had destroyed “a foreign unmanned aerial vehicle that had entered Latvian airspace as a result of Russian electronic warfare”, without saying where the drone originated.

The incident adds a growing list of incursions from the Russia-Ukraine war into neighbouring countries that are part of the NATO alliance, sparking fears of escalating spillover effects as Moscow’s siege on Ukraine continues apace.

“Thank you to our French allies for shooting down the drone that penetrated Latvian airspace!” Riga’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braze wrote on social media.

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs heralded the “swift decision-making and professional action”.

Defence Minister Raivis Melnis told reporters the drone was shot down just after 9am local time (07:00 GMT) near the village of Berzgale, located about 30km (18 miles) from the Russian border. No one was hurt, and no property was damaged, Melnis said.

The French military said in a statement that the jets took off from Siauliai airbase in northern Lithuania and destroyed the drone “over an uninhabited area”.

It added that the incident demonstrated France’s “commitment to contributing to the security of Europe’s eastern flank”.

Authorities had previously warned residents in some parts of eastern Latvia to shelter in place because of the threat.

Ongoing threat

Countries in the region have reported repeated drone incursions from air and sea in recent months, spawning concerns over the widening impact of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The issue has raised the political pressure in Latvia, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Evika Silina last month.

The increased frequency of the reports comes as Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russia, with Moscow deflecting drones using electronic jamming. The statement from the Latvian military regarding “Russian electronic warfare” appears to suggest the drone shot down likely came from Ukraine.

Fragments of a Ukrainian drone were also found in a field in Moldova on Monday after it entered from Ukraine, an incident that officials also blamed on Moscow.

Last week, a maritime drone exploded in Romania’s Constanta port. Kyiv later confirmed it involved a Ukrainian drone that was knocked off course by Russian electronic interference.

However, it was a Russian drone that hit an apartment building in eastern Romania in late May, injuring two people and prompting Bucharest to call for NATO to speed up the transfer of anti-drone capabilities.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned after that crash that Russia’s war on Ukraine is “increasingly becoming a direct threat to countries on our Eastern border” and said solidarity with them was “absolute”.

The French military jet that shot down Monday’s drone is part of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, which has patrolled the skies of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia since they became part of NATO in 2004.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned down an offer for in-person talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, saying he sees no point in meeting. Zelenskyy said Russia “has again chosen war” by rejecting his open letter appealing for a face-to-face meeting.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the maritime drone was a ‘direct consequence’ of the Russia-Ukraine war. 

A maritime drone has exploded in Romania’s Constanta port, with several other drones discovered nearby.

The Romanian Ministry of National Defence said on Friday that the drone had self-detonated at 10:30am local time (07:30 GMT). The incident is just the latest incursion along NATO’s eastern flank, raising concern over the increasing spillover from Russia’s war on Ukraine to neighbouring states that are part of the Western military alliance.

The drone exploded near an oil terminal, without causing injuries. Interior Minister Raed Arafat said the port was evacuated after the detonation, and residents along the Black Sea coast were warned to take cover as helicopters surveyed the area for other vessels.

Kyiv later said it had informed Bucharest that Friday’s incident involved a Ukrainian maritime drone that was knocked off course by Russian electronic interference.

“While carrying out missions in the Black Sea operational area, one of the Ukrainian Navy’s unmanned surface vessels came under the influence of the enemy’s electronic warfare systems, lost control, and ended up near the coast of Romania,” the Ukrainian navy said.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan noted on Facebook that this was the “second security incident this week on the Romanian seaside”.

Earlier this week, Romania’s navy detonated a Russian YaRM-type anti-landing mine that had drifted to its Black Sea shore.

Last week, a Russian drone crashed into an apartment building in Romania, increasing fears that the war started by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 increasingly risks spilling over to the region.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned on Friday that the maritime drone was a “direct consequence” of the Russia-Ukraine war.

“It is increasingly becoming a direct threat to countries on our Eastern border. Our solidarity with every Member State exposed to these threats is absolute,” von der Leyen wrote.

“And our response must match the urgency. Europe is investing massively in anti-drone capabilities, air defence and early warning systems,” she added.

Romania, which shares a 650km (400-mile) land border with Ukraine, has reported dozens of airspace breaches amid the four-year war, generally blaming Russia, and has asked NATO to help it bolster air defences.

The spillover of the war is also affecting non-NATO countries.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on Friday that five of its citizens were killed and three injured after attacks on two cargo vessels, which did not belong to Baku, in the Sea of Azov.

Kyiv said earlier that its drones had hit five ships in the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk – which sits between Russia and the Russian-occupied eastern regions of Ukraine.

Commander of the Ukrainian drone forces, Robert Brovdi, asserted that the vessels were involved in “stealing” Ukrainian grain and transferring military cargo.

It has been more than four years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, expanding its occupation of Ukrainian lands, which started in 2014. In the chaos and violence of the first months of the invasion, families were separated, and childcare institutions were cut off from the control of the central authorities in Kyiv. As a result, the occupation forces forcibly transferred more than 20,000 Ukrainian children to Russia.

Russian officials claimed that they did not abduct Ukrainian children, but “saved” them through humanitarian evacuations. However, international investigations have since found that many such transfers were unlawful under international humanitarian law. In many documented cases, transfers were carried out without the consent of the living parent or legal guardians of the child.

International humanitarian law prohibits all forcible transfers and deportations of protected people from occupied territory, except for evacuations strictly required to ensure the population’s safety. Even then, evacuation must happen within occupied territory, be temporary, preserve family unity and return evacuees home as soon as hostilities cease.

Today, the lives of thousands of Ukrainian children are devastated by this forcible transfer. Instead of abiding by international legal obligations and returning them to their homeland, Russia has transformed the issue into yet another bargaining chip against the Ukrainian people.

But Ukraine refuses to abandon its children. For the past four years, there have been intense efforts from families, NGOs and the Ukrainian government to bring them back.

Take the case of Lesya (the name has been changed to protect her identity), whose testimony was recorded by The Reckoning Project— a global team of journalists and lawyers documenting and publicising atrocities committed in the war. Lesya was 15 years old when Russian forces occupied her village in the Kherson region in 2022. When the occupation authorities imposed a mandatory evacuation, she was put on a truck with more than 30 other children and was sent to a rehabilitation centre in Feodosia, Crimea. A woman accompanying the children told her that her mother would join her shortly.

At the facility, Lesya and other Ukrainian children were subjected to a strict routine, forced to do chores and study in Russian, using Russian textbooks. They were kept under surveillance indoors most of the time in a building with windows that could not be opened. Two days a week, the children underwent military training.

Eventually, a relative located her, and with the help of Save Ukraine, a Ukrainian NGO facilitating children’s return, her mother managed to bring her back.

But Lesya’s case is the exception rather than the rule. More than 2,000 Ukrainian children have been brought back thanks to efforts by NGOs, the government and foreign mediators.

Pressure through international institutions has also been pursued, but that has not accelerated the process of return.

In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued warrants of arrest for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova for the unlawful deportation and transfer of Ukrainian children.

In July 2025, the European Court of Human Rights, in Ukraine and the Netherlands v Russia, found Russia responsible for a number of human rights violations, including the organised removal of children. The court also required Russia to cooperate in establishing a mechanism to find and safely return children.

In March this year, the United Nations Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine concluded that Russia’s deportation and forcible transfer of Ukrainian children amount to crimes against humanity. The report identifies the removal of Ukrainian children as a part of a well-planned and systematically executed policy, conceived at the highest level.

On May 11, the European Union sanctioned 16 individuals and seven entities, while the United Kingdom sanctioned 29 individuals and entities responsible for the deportation, forced transfer, forced assimilation, indoctrination, militarisation and unlawful adoption of Ukrainian children. Overall, the EU has sanctioned more than 130 people and organisations for these actions. The United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Switzerland and several other countries have introduced similar measures.

The lack of progress on this issue has driven families to desperation. Some have tried to bring their children back on their own or through often-daring missions by Save Ukraine and five other Ukrainian NGOs.

There should be no need for these risky missions. Under international humanitarian law, Russia is obligated to identify and register Ukrainian children in their care, facilitate family reunification, and permit access to neutral actors assisting Ukrainian children.

As negotiations for the end of the war have stalled and other global events have displaced Ukraine from global headlines, we urgently need to put the issue of the abducted Ukrainian children back in the spotlight.

There are several areas in which existing efforts can expand.

First, a comprehensive tracing mechanism needs to be established and financed to track abducted Ukrainian children and prevent their disappearance into dispersed care and adoption systems.

Second, ongoing legal efforts to hold to account Russian officials involved in the abduction should be intensified. This means coordinated prosecutions in states where the universal jurisdiction principle can be applied, as well as joint investigation strategies supported by Eurojust, the EU’s judicial hub. Ukraine’s partners should support its judicial processes launched against Russian officials and cooperate where needed, including through extraditions where legally applicable and other lawful transfer mechanisms. While justice may be slow, the prospect of accountability can have a deterrent effect.

Third, states can and should fully implement sanctions, trade restrictions and other obligations they assumed but did not consistently observe in practice. The sanctions regime on Russia has severely hurt its economy, but it has also seen continuous evasion. A strict implementation can help put more pressure on the regime in Moscow.

While stories of family reunions are heartening, they are just a drop in a bucket compared with the number of children who continue to be separated from their families and absorbed into a system of indoctrination and militarisation.

We must not allow the issue of returning Ukrainian children to be yet another negotiating chip for Moscow. It cannot be put on hold because negotiations have stalled or because other priorities have captured the world’s attention.

Four years is a long time in a child’s life. Each passing day further erodes their national identity and deepens the pain of separation, as they grow up in a hostile environment. There is no principle more universal than the belief that children belong with their parents and loved ones, and Ukrainian children deserve this basic human right today, not at some point in the future.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.

Romanian President Nicusor Dan says that the Russian consul in the southeastern city of Constanta will be expelled and the consulate shut down after a drone intended for Ukraine crashed into an apartment complex in the border town of Galati.

Romania and its NATO allies have reacted angrily after a Russian drone crashed into an apartment building in eastern Romania, injuring two people.

The foreign ministry in Bucharest on Friday labelled the crash of the drone, part of an overnight attack aimed at Ukraine, a serious violation of international law and called on NATO to accelerate the transfer of anti-drone capabilities. The incident is just the latest incursion along the alliance’s eastern flank, raising concern that the risk of an open confrontation between Russia and NATO states is rising.

Romania said the overnight drone was tracked by radar in its airspace before crashing onto the roof of a residential building in the city of Galati.

Two F-16 fighter jets and a helicopter were scrambled, as authorities issued emergency alerts to residents. Two people suffered minor injuries and several residents were evacuated after a fire was triggered by the crash.

‘Consequences’

The incident is just the latest of several, as the war in Ukraine has spilled over into neighbouring NATO countries, raising fears of potential escalation.

Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as Finland have all reported repeated incursions into their airspace in recent months. Drone incursions sparked a government collapse in Latvia earlier this month.

Shortly after the crash, Bucharest called for NATO to speed up the transfer of anti-drone capabilities. Outgoing Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan also said that Romania would, within hours, sign ⁠a contract which ⁠will give it anti-drone defences ‌under the EU’S SAFE programme.

On Friday morning, Romania summoned the Russia ambassador.

“We will officially communicate the consequences that this lack of responsibility on the part of the Russian Federation will have for the diplomatic relations between our countries, as well as the next steps at the European level regarding sanctions packages,” Foreign Minister Oana Toiu wrote on social media.

President Nicusor Dan stated that Romania ⁠will ⁠not accept that the war of aggression ⁠waged by Russia against ⁠Ukraine be transferred to its citizens, and added that he had asked the foreign ministry ⁠to present without delay ⁠a series ⁠of measures regarding the country’s relationship with Russia, “proportionate to ‌this very serious situation”.

NATO allies and others joined the chorus of anger.

French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad said the incident highlighted the threat Russia poses to European security, noting that French troops are stationed in Romania.

“Regardless of ⁠whether it was on purpose ⁠or the ⁠result ⁠of ineptitude, Russia is still dangerous and ‌we must defend ourselves against ‌it,” ‌Polish ⁠Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told ⁠the Reuters news agency.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the incident showed that “Russia’s war of aggression has crossed yet another line”.

A NATO spokesperson also condemned “Russia’s recklessness” on social media.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, whose country is pressing the United States to help boost its air defences, pledged “Ukraine stands firmly by Romania” as he branded Russia a threat to the Black Sea region and the wider ‌European continent.

“We are ready ⁠to work closely together ⁠to strengthen protection from such threats,” he wrote on social media, adding that the bid to ⁠strengthen Ukraine’s ⁠air defence is a “strategic task” to protect not only ‌Ukraine but also to reduce risks for ‌neighbouring ‌countries.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the escalating attacks risk spiralling “out of control”, with “unknown and unintended consequences”.

He said more civilians had been killed in the first four months of this year than during the same period in the previous three years, and called for diplomacy, immediate de-escalation and “a full and unconditional ceasefire”.

Rising risk

Concern that the war is threatening to spillover is building as Russia escalates hostilities in a bid to ward off rising political and economic pressure at home.

Ukrainian forces reported that they shot down 217 drones overnight on Friday. Russia attacked with 232 drones and one ballistic missile. Hits were recorded in 14 areas, the air force said.

Moscow has said it plans “systematic strikes” on Kyiv and has issued a barrage of threats at Ukraine’s European allies, listing facilities in Europe that it said are involved in manufacturing drones and components for Ukraine.

Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service recently warned the Baltic nations that their NATO membership won’t protect them from retaliation should they allow Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory, with analysts warning that the risk of an open confrontation between Russia and NATO states is rising.

That heightens concern regarding NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause, which President Donald Trump has hinted the United States may not honour in some cases.

However, the alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte insisted on Friday that NATO will defend all of its territory.

“Russia’s reckless behaviour is a danger to us all,” he wrote on social media. “Last ⁠night showed yet again ⁠that the implications of their illegal war of aggression don’t ⁠stop at the border.”

“We will ⁠continue to strengthen ⁠our deterrence and defence at home and continue our support for ‌Ukraine as they defend against Russia’s aggression,” he ‌added.

Russia has urged foreigners to leave in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, and warned of more strikes on the city, suggesting a major escalation in its more-than-four-year-long war on Ukraine.

In a statement issued on Monday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it planned to target “decision-making centres and command posts” and drone manufacturing facilities in the Ukrainian city in a series of strikes.

Due to these facilities being allegedly “scattered throughout Kyiv”, Moscow told “foreign citizens, including personnel of diplomatic missions and international organisations, to leave the city as soon as possible”, the statement read.

The ministry’s statement also urged Kyiv residents to avoid all military and administrative infrastructure facilities in the capital, which could be potential targets.

A later statement said that Russian Foreign Minister ⁠Sergey Lavrov had ⁠advised US Secretary of State Marco Rubio of the plan and urged him to evacuate his embassy staff from Kyiv.

Moscow said these planned strikes were in response to a drone strike on a student dormitory in Starobilsk, in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region of Ukraine, which killed at least 18 people.

The threats come just days after Russian drone and rocket strikes on Kyiv on Saturday night killed at least four people and injured about 100 others.

What is behind Russia’s latest threats, and how significant are the threats to foreigners in Kyiv?

Here’s what we know:

Why is Russia threatening to attack Kyiv?

Ukraine has greatly improved its drone warfare capabilities in recent months, leading to more successful targeting of Russian military and energy infrastructure.

Most of these drones are homegrown interceptors, which have been designed to pursue attack enemy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) before they hit their targets.

They can also carry a wider range of payloads and do not self-destruct, unlike one-way drones, so they can be used again in future missions.

On May 17, at least five people were killed after Ukraine launched what Russian officials described as one of the largest drone barrages of the war, with waves of UAVs dispatched to Moscow and several other regions overnight.  The Indian embassy in Russia said one Indian worker was killed and three others injured in drone strikes in the Moscow region.

Moscow region’s Governor Andrei Vorobyov added that a woman was killed after a drone slammed into a house in Khimki, north of Moscow. Vorobyov added that apartment buildings and infrastructure sites were damaged in the attacks.

The Russian foreign ministry statement on Monday labelled the Staroblisk attack as a “flagrant disregard for international humanitarian law”, and “yet another blatant demonstration of the Nazi and terrorist nature of the Kyiv regime”.

What has Ukraine said?

Ukraine’s ⁠military has denied responsibility for the strike on the student dorm, saying it had struck ‌an elite drone command unit.

Since then, Russia has also heavily targeted Kyiv and its surrounding areas with massive missile and drone attacks. resulting in at least four people killed and more than 60 injured overnight Tuesday and Wednesday.

On Monday, Ukrainian officials also reported that strikes killed several people in the eastern Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.

So how significant are Russia’s latest threats?

While both Russia and Ukraine have repeatedly launched attacks on one another’s cities, this was the first time Moscow had issued a direct warning to foreigners in Ukraine.

Commenting on this threat, Ukraine’s Foreign ⁠Minister Andrii Sybiha urged allies not to give in to “‌Russian blackmail”.

French Ambassador Gael Veyssiere noted that people in Kyiv were going about their daily lives on Monday, after the weekend’s strikes.

“It’s ⁠a way to demonstrate resilience, and I think it’s extremely important that we, around the world, we would ⁠support that,” Veyssiere told the Reuters news agency.

According to Philip Bednarczyk, the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Warsaw office director, Russia’s latest threat comes after “its attempts to break Ukraine’s will to fight over the course of the coldest winter during this war failed”.

“It is becoming clear that their war aims are not being met on the front lines, and conversely, Ukraine has taken an upper hand. Russia needs to change tactics and the narrative somehow, and this warning is an attempt to do so,” he told Al Jazeera.

What is the status of diplomacy in peace talks?

Russia and Ukraine have been holding peace talks since the war began in February 2022, but with little or no concrete outcomes.

When Donald Trump became the president of the US for the second time in January 2025, he promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

He has since met both Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy in separate meetings to discuss ending the war, but so far these efforts have not borne fruit.

The truce talks have largely stalled due to Russia’s insistence on keeping territory it has seized from Ukraine.

On May 22, US State Secretary Marco Rubio said that while trilateral talks had been unsuccessful, the United States was ready to organise a new round of peace talks.

But Washington has also been occupied with its war on Iran, which broke out on February 28, and analysts say EU nations might have to play a bigger part in peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

“Unfortunately, US attention from this administration was not able to bring peace, and it looks that attention has gone towards other parts of the world, like Iran,” Bednarczyk said.

“Europe will have to take up that role, and I believe is capable of doing so, but it is extremely important to have American backing.”

But he was also sceptical about how serious Russia is right now about peace. “After all, this is their war of choice,” he said.

EU spokesperson Anitta Hipper says Russia’s threat to diplomats and foreign citizens is an ‘unacceptable escalation’.

Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and the European Union have summoned Russian envoys a day after Moscow warned foreigners and diplomats to leave the Ukrainian capital ahead of renewed air strikes.

On Tuesday, EU spokesperson Anitta Hipper called Russia’s threat to diplomats and foreign citizens an “unacceptable escalation”.

Hipper added in a post on X that the charge d’affairs had been summoned, calling on Moscow to “stop hitting civilians & Russia to engage in genuine peace talks starting with a full and unconditional ceasefire”.

At the beginning of May, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire for Moscow’s celebrations to mark its victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 at the end of World War II, but fighting quickly resumed with both sides accusing the other of violating the agreement.

On Monday, Moscow said that it planned to launch more strikes on Kyiv after it launched a barrage of drones and missiles on Ukraine over the weekend that killed four people.

Among the weapons Russia used in its attacks were its Oreshknik hypersonic missile, which can travel 10 times the speed of sound.

The warning came after Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a vocational school last week in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region that killed 21 people.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his military on Friday to prepare options for retaliation in response to the attack.

“Under the current circumstances, the Russian Armed Forces are starting to launch systematic strikes against Ukrainian military-industrial facilities in Kyiv,” Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Monday.

“The strikes will target both decision-making centres and command posts … We are warning foreign citizens, including personnel of diplomatic missions and international organisations, to leave the city as soon as possible,” it added.

But in response to the call to leave the country, Germany’s Federal Foreign Office said on Tuesday that Moscow was resorting to “threats, terror & escalation”, which is why they summoned the Russian ambassador.

“We made it clear to Russia today: We will not be intimidated by threats and will continue to support Ukraine with full force,” the ministry wrote on X.

Norway and the Netherlands also summoned their Russian ambassadors over threats to attack Kyiv.

With no clear end to the war in sight, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated on Tuesday that Washington had remained ready to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, as talks have stalled.

Russia has launched one of its largest attacks on Kyiv since the war began, firing hundreds of drones and missiles across Ukraine overnight.

Speaking to Al Jazeera after visiting damaged sites, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strikes and the targeting of civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine vowed retaliation.

US President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, a surprise move that has deepened uncertainty about Washington’s military posture in Europe.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Thursday, Trump linked the decision directly to his relationship with Poland’s right-wing President Karol Nawrocki.

“Based on the successful Election of the now President ⁠of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland,” Trump wrote.

But the move comes just days after the Pentagon cancelled the deployment of about 4,000 troops to Poland as part of a wider reduction of US forces in Europe.

The abrupt reversal has fuelled questions about what exactly Trump has ordered – and whether the deployment is driven by military strategy with Europe, or by the US president’s increasingly transactional approach to alliances.

What has Trump ordered and which troops are involved?

While Trump described the move as a new deployment, reports from US media suggest the announcement may actually amount to a reversal of an earlier Pentagon decision.

Last week, the Pentagon abruptly halted the deployment of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Cavalry Division – a Texas-based unit of more than 4,000 troops that had been preparing to rotate into Poland and Eastern Europe.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump later questioned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about why the deployment had been cancelled, telling him the US should not “treat Poland poorly” given its close ties to Washington.

Several reports said some parts of the brigade – known as the “Black Jack Brigade” – had already begun moving equipment and personnel when the deployment was stopped.

The Pentagon has not confirmed whether Trump’s newly announced 5,000 troops are the same soldiers whose deployment was cancelled earlier this month, or whether they will be redeployed from elsewhere in Europe, such as from Germany.

The White House and Pentagon have so far released few other details about this latest deployment.

Poland currently hosts about 10,000 US troops, largely on a rotational basis, according to the Polish government. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country has become one of Washington’s most important military partners on NATO’s eastern edge and a key hub for Western military aid to Kyiv.

In 2020, Poland and the US signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, expanding military cooperation and helping to formalise a longer-term American military presence in the country.

How has Poland responded?

Nawrocki welcomed Trump’s announcement, calling the Polish-American alliance “a vital pillar of security for every Polish home and for all of Europe”.

“Good alliances are those based on cooperation, mutual respect, and a commitment to our shared security,” he wrote on social media.

Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski also welcomed the news, saying the deployment would ensure that “the presence of American troops in Poland will be maintained more or less at previous levels”.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also welcomed the move.

“It serves not only for Poland’s security, but for the security of the whole alliance and so also for us,” he told reporters. “So, this is absolutely in our interest.”

Why is Trump doing this?

The announcement appears to mark a sharp reversal from recent signals that the Trump administration was preparing to reduce the US military’s footprint in Europe.

Earlier this month, Washington announced plans to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany after a public row between Trump and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the US-Israeli war on Iran. Trump later suggested the cuts could go even further.

At the same time, Trump has repeatedly accused European NATO allies of failing to spend enough on defence and of not doing enough to support US policy in the Middle East.

Analysts say the decision over Poland also reflects Trump’s increasingly transactional approach to alliances – punishing governments he sees as hostile or unhelpful while rewarding leaders and countries more closely aligned with his brand of right-wing politics.

Germany and Spain have both faced criticism from Trump administration officials in recent weeks over their positions on Iran and defence spending, while Poland’s nationalist government has cultivated close ties with Trump and the wider MAGA movement.

Before meeting NATO counterparts in Sweden, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “Like any alliance, it ⁠has to be good ⁠for everyone who’s involved. There has to be a clear ⁠understanding of what the expectations are.”

“The president’s views, frankly disappointment, at some of our NATO allies and their response to our operations in the Middle East – they’re well documented – that will have to be addressed,” Rubio added. “That won’t be solved or addressed today.”

Poland, by contrast, has emerged as one of NATO’s highest defence spenders, allocating about 4.5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defence. It has also remained one of Ukraine’s strongest backers and has consistently pushed for a larger US military presence on its territory.

The deployment, therefore, appears both strategic and political – reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank while rewarding one of Trump’s closest allies in Europe at a time when he is openly questioning relationships with other partners on the continent.

But the confusion surrounding the announcement has also highlighted a broader uncertainty hanging over Washington’s Europe policy, with allies still trying to determine whether the administration is reducing its commitment to NATO overall, or simply reshaping it around governments Trump sees as more loyal.

A Ukrainian strike collapsed a five-storey college dormitory in the Russian-occupied city of Starobilsk, killing four people and injuring at least 39 others. Rescue operations continue as more people are believed to be trapped under the rubble.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in China on Tuesday evening for a two-day visit centred on talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as Moscow and Beijing draw closer amid war, sanctions and an increasingly fractured global order.

Putin’s visit is the second face-to-face meeting he has held with Xi in less than a year and coincides with the 25th anniversary of the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, the agreement that formalised ties between Russia and China following decades of ideological rivalry and mutual suspicion.

The visit comes just days after United States President Donald Trump left Beijing following his own two-day visit to the Chinese capital for meetings with Xi.

Both Moscow and Beijing are navigating tricky relations with Washington, with analysts saying the unpredictability of Trump’s foreign policy has had the effect of pushing Russia and China even closer together.

Their deepening partnership also comes against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, mounting tensions around Iran, and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a crisis that has rattled global energy markets and renewed Beijing’s concerns over the security of its oil and gas supplies.

With one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways under threat, China has increasingly turned towards Russia as a reliable overland energy supplier.

Analysts say Xi’s decision to host Trump and Putin within the space of a week is no coincidence, reflecting Beijing’s attempt to cast itself as a trusted actor in an increasingly fragmented and volatile world order.

How have China-Russia relations changed over the decades?

China and Russia have long occupied a complicated place in each other’s histories. Once bound together through communist ideology and shared opposition to Western capitalism, the Soviet Union and Maoist China later became bitter rivals, with tensions along their 4,300km (2,670-mile) border bringing the two countries close to conflict during the Cold War.

However, that border has since transformed from a frontier of insecurity into one of strategic cooperation and trade.

Neither Xi nor Putin is a frequent international traveller. Putin is the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant over the war in Ukraine, while Xi rarely leaves China other than for carefully choreographed state visits. But both leaders have invested heavily in maintaining personal ties with each other.

The two have repeatedly called each other “friends”, and their relationship has deepened, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which pushed Moscow further into international isolation and forced the Kremlin to look southeastwards for trade amid Western sanctions.

“Russia and China look confidently towards the future,” Putin said in remarks carried by Russian state media ahead of the visit.

He said the two countries were “actively developing cooperation in politics, economics, defence, expanding cultural exchanges, and fostering interpersonal interaction”.

“In essence, jointly doing everything to deepen bilateral cooperation and advance global development for the wellbeing of both nations,” Putin added.

Why Russia needs China

China has become an economic lifeline for Russia as the country’s economy has shifted to a wartime footing, with two-way trade between the countries more than doubling between 2020 and 2024, when it reached $237bn for the year.

But the relationship is also uneven. While China is Russia’s largest trading partner, Russia accounts for only about four percent of China’s total international trade. China’s economy is also vastly larger, and Beijing holds considerably more leverage in negotiations between the two sides.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has become increasingly reliant on Chinese technology and manufacturing. A recent Bloomberg report found Russia was sourcing more than 90 percent of its sanctioned technology imports from China, including components with military and dual-use applications vital to drone production and other defence industries.

China has also emerged as a crucial buyer of Russian oil and other energy products at a time when European markets have largely closed to Moscow in response to the Russia-Ukraine war. With Western sanctions restricting Russia’s options, the Kremlin has few viable alternatives to China’s scale of demand.

Analysts say the imbalance means Beijing is often able to negotiate from a position of strength, securing access to Russian oil and gas at discounted prices while expanding its influence over Moscow’s economic future.

Why China still needs Russia

While the relationship is uneven, it is not one-sided. Russia provides something increasingly valuable in a turbulent world: secure access to vast energy resources beyond vulnerable maritime trade routes.

The war surrounding Iran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened Beijing’s concerns over energy security, given China’s heavy dependence on imported oil and gas passing through contested shipping lanes.

That has renewed attention on the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, a long-delayed project expected to feature prominently in this week’s discussions.

If completed, the pipeline would transport 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually to China via Mongolia, significantly expanding energy flows between the two countries.

But it is more than just an economic relationship. China also values Russia as a geopolitical partner. Both countries are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and frequently align diplomatically in opposition to US-led policies.

While analysts say China has been careful not to become formally tied to Moscow through a rigid military alliance, the two countries have still gradually reinforced their partnership through increasingly regular joint military exercises, including the “Joint Sea” naval drills that began in 2012.

Last year, China and Russia launched fresh naval drills in the Sea of Japan near the Russian port of Vladivostok, with exercises focused on submarine rescue, anti-submarine warfare, air defence, missile defence and maritime combat operations. Analysts say the drills help signal strategic alignment between Beijing and Moscow without the mutual defence commitments of a formal alliance.

Experts say the strength of the partnership lies in its flexibility. While Western governments have often portrayed the relationship as fragile and driven largely by a shared opposition to the West, analysts say, it may prove more durable because it is rooted in shared economic and strategic interests rather than ideology alone.

There appears to be a shift in the years-long conflict in Ukraine.

Last weekend, Ukrainian forces struck deeper into Russian territory, piercing its air defences in a large strike on the Moscow region.

This came a week after fears of a Ukrainian attack forced Russia to scale down its annual Victory Day parade.

Kyiv’s also been relentlessly striking Russia’s oil facilities and military logistics, as it tries to disrupt supplies to the front lines.

All this as Russian missiles and drones continue to target sites across Ukraine.

So, where does the war stand in its fifth year? Does any one side have the upper hand?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Peter Zalmayev – Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative

Pavel Felgenhauer – Russian foreign policy analyst

Mark Episkopos – Research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program