Middle East Preparing For War Ahead Of U.S.-Iran Negotiations
Even as the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold talks in Oman on Friday in hopes of defusing tensions between the two nations, Washington, Jerusalem and Tehran are all preparing for what could be a very violent future conflict. With the talks widely seen as a last-ditch diplomatic effort to avoid another war, the buildup of U.S. military capabilities in the region is continuing.
“While these negotiations are taking place, I would remind the Iranian regime that the president has many options at his disposal as the commander in chief of the most powerful military in history,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters at the White House Thursday afternoon.
Her comments followed those made Thursday morning by President Donald Trump, who continued his verbal pressure campaign against Iran.
“They’re negotiating,” Trump said during the 74th National Prayer Breakfast. “They don’t want us to hit them. You know, we have a big fleet going over there.”
“U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, currently in Abu Dhabi, are expected to travel to Qatar to consult with Prime Minister Mohammed Abdulrahman Al Thani ahead of the talks in Oman,” according to the Jerusalem Post. At the moment, the U.S. and Iran are scheduled to talk about Tehran’s nuclear programs. Under the proposed framework for an agreement, Iran would commit to zero enrichment of uranium for three years, Al Jazeera reported.
“After that, it would agree to limit enrichment of uranium to below 1.5 percent,” the publication explained. “Its current stock of highly enriched uranium – including about 440kg (970lb) that has been enriched to 60 percent – would be transferred to a third country. The proposed framework goes beyond Iran’s nuclear program with mediators proposing that Iran should agree not to transfer weapons and technologies to its regional, non-state allies.”
A wide gap, however, remains about the ultimate outcome of these talks. While Iran wants to limit them to just its nuclear program, the Trump administration has a more comprehensive range of issues that need to be addressed.
“At the end of the day, the United States is prepared to engage, and has always been prepared to engage with Iran,” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday. “For talks to actually lead to something meaningful, they will have to include certain things, and that includes the range of their ballistic missiles. That includes their sponsorship of terrorist organizations across the region. That includes the nuclear program. And that includes the treatment of their own people.”
Trump’s initial threats against Iran came as information trickled out about the nation’s brutal crackdown on anti-regime protests that have seen upwards of 30,000 killed, according to some estimates. The unrest began in Iran on Dec. 28 over rising prices and a devalued currency that saw the rial crater now to basically nothing, as well as a devastating drought.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said his country is working hard to prevent U.S.-Iran tensions from tipping the Middle East into a new conflict.
“Speaking to reporters on a return flight from a visit to Egypt, Erdogan added that talks at the level of the U.S. and Iranian leadership would be helpful after lower-level nuclear negotiations due in Oman on Friday,” Reuters reported, citing a transcript of Erdogan’s comments shared by his office on Thursday.
Regardless of diplomacy, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Thursday threatened Israel, America and the nations hosting U.S. military bases.
“When Americans threaten to attack us, they should know our first target would be the Zionist entity,” said IRGC General Hossein Daghighi, using the term Iran refers to when discussing Israel. “It is well within the range of our missiles. It is America’s weak spot in the region.”
“The enemy’s return to negotiations – the Americans’ return to negotiations – is a sign that they fear the capabilities of the Iranian people,” Daghighi added. “If attacked, we will immediately target all U.S. bases in the region. The countries and governments of the region are our brothers. We have no problems with them, but we will target the U.S. bases in these countries. If America wants to go to war with us, it should evacuate all its bases in the region and leave the region altogether. This is our objective. Our main goal is to drive America out of all the countries in the region.”
Iran’s Army spokesman said the U.S. bases in the region are easy targets to attack.
“We are ready to defend, and it is the American president who must choose between compromise or war,” said Amir Akraminia. “Our access to US bases is easy, and this issue has increased their vulnerability.”
Perhaps in anticipation of a new attack on its nuclear facilities, satellite images show Iran burying the entrance to the Isfahan site, which was one of three attacked during last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer. Iran did something similar prior that operation when it covered entrances to the Fordow facility with dirt to prevent an Israeli commando raid.
Israel, which has vowed that Iran will never get nuclear weapons, remains a large wildcard in the current situation.
While Jerusalem has been urging Trump to attack Iran, has been told it has to “refrain from any unilateral military action” against its archenemy, Sky News Arabia stated. “Ahead of the talks, which are to be held on Friday in Oman, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth described the coordination between Israel and the United States as ‘very close.’ Senior Israeli officials pointed to the frequent visits by military and intelligence officers between the two countries.”
“The Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was holding a meeting with the heads of the security services on Thursday to discuss the tensions with Iran,” Sky News Arabia added.
It should be noted, of course, that Israel attacked Iran last June in what became known as the 12-Day War even as Washington was negotiating with Tehran.
In addition to being concerned about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, Israel is worried about its ability to produce ballistic missiles, of which Iran already has thousands.
“With help from China…and other countries, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zami has warned that it could increase its ballistic missile production to 300 per month, and within a few years, dwarf its prior ballistic missile totals,” the Jerusalem Post reported. “At 6,000, 8,000, and 10,000 missiles in 2027-2028, analysts worry that even Israel’s awesome multi-layer defense shield would find it hard to keep up.”
Amid all the rhetoric, Israel is bracing for war.
“The Air Force, and especially you, must continue to maintain a high level of alertness,” Israeli Air Force commander, General Tomer Bar, said during a visit to an Iron Dome air defense battery on Thursday. “Every day, we are strengthening our readiness and our defensive and offensive capabilities. The reserve forces present at this battery, in the air defense system, and in all units of the Air Force and the Israel Defense Forces, are the central element of our power and of the State of Israel. Your mission and the heavy responsibility you have carried since the beginning of the war and on all fronts, together with the families who support you, are truly inspiring. The professionalism, dedication, and motivation you demonstrate here give me complete confidence that the Air Force is capable of confronting any challenge that lies ahead of us.”
“As we understand the situation, we are on a thin line between preparedness and attack,” an Israeli security official said. “A dramatic weekend awaits the region.”
The stream of U.S. Air Force cargo jets to the region, however, is continuing at a brisk pace. Online flight trackers estimate that well over 100 aircraft have arrived in the Middle East over the past few weeks, bringing additional forces, including additional Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems for increased protection from any Iranian attack.
While that may seem like a large number of flights, remember that last year, when the U.S. wanted to bolster its forces in the Middle East ahead of a potential conflict with Iran, it took 73 C-17 loads to move one Patriot air defense battalion across the globe. That is just one example of how hard-pressed U.S. military transport logistics are in a time of a major conflict that would require massive movements — in the air and at sea — of materiel.
As part of the effort to handle all these aircraft movements, the U.S. base at Spangdahlem, Germany, is now operating around the clock, the BBC noted. In addition, it appears another E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) jet is now in the region.
The U.S. has already deployed additional F-15E Strike Eagles, E/A-18G Growler electronic warfare jets and A-10 Thunderbolt close support aircraft to the region, where some F-15Es and A-10s were already located. The U.S. Navy also has squadrons of F-35C stealth fighters, F/A-18E-F Super Hornets and Growlers embarked aboard the Lincoln. However, as we have frequently pointed out, there still does not appear to be enough tactical jets for the U.S. to maintain a sustained operation, even of limited scope, against Iran.
A flight of Air Force F-35A stealth fighters, used in the raid to capture Maduro, is still stuck in Rota, Spain, according to online flight trackers. The jets, reportedly bound for Jordan, became marooned there after a KC-46 mishap at Moron Air Base, some 50 miles to the northeast, shut the runway for days. While the Moron runway has since been reopened, it remains unclear how many flights have been launched. We have reached out to the U.S. Air Force Air Mobility Command and U.S. Air Forces Europe-Air Force Africa (USAFE) for details.
We have not seen any major movement of strategic bombers yet either and there does not appear to be any major increase of assets on Diego Garcia, a U.S. base in the Indian Ocean. Last year, ahead of rising tensions with Iran, the U.S. sent a large force of bombers and other supporting assets to Diego Garcia, which TWZ was first to report on.
Though Trump on Thursday mentioned that the U.S. has a “big fleet” heading to the Middle East, there have been no ship movements today, a U.S. Navy official told us. There are still 10 ships in the U.S. Central Command region, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three of its Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts. There are also two Arleigh Burke class ships in the eastern Mediterranean as well, the official added.
In a veiled message to Iran, CENTCOM released a time-lapse video showing the launch and recovery of jets from the Lincoln.
Iran is no match for American military forces, the Navy’s highest-ranking active-duty officer said this week.
“Adm. Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations, told hundreds of sailors at an all-hands call Wednesday that although he doesn’t take Iranian posturing lightly, U.S. forces overmatched Tehran’s threats ‘significantly’ when it comes to capabilities,” Stars and Stripes reported. “We have a very good approach of providing the president of the United States military options. Iran knows this. So, the fact that we have that type of capability is a strong deterrent.”
As CENTCOM was showing off the Lincoln, the IRGC on Thursday claimed it seized two oil tankers with their foreign crews in Gulf waters for “smuggling fuel,” the official Iranian Tasnim news agency reported.
“More than one million liters of smuggled fuel were discovered on these two violating vessels, and 15 foreign crew members were referred to judicial authorities for legal proceedings,” Tasnim added. It was not immediately clear what flags the tankers were carrying, nor the nationalities of the crews.
The seizures, part of an ongoing Iranian effort in the Gulf, came just two days after an F-35C from the Lincoln shot down an Iranian drone. In a separate incident that day, IRGC forces harassed a U.S.-flagged, U.S.-crewed merchant vessel lawfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz. “Two IRGC boats and an Iranian Mohajer drone approached M/V Stena Imperative at high speeds and threatened to board and seize the tanker,” Col. Tim Hawkins, the CENTCOM spokesperson, said in a statement to TWZ. “Guided-missile destroyer USS McFaul (DDG 74) was operating in the area and immediately responded to the scene to escort M/V Stena Imperative with defensive air support from the U.S. Air Force.”
We will keep you up to date with new developments in this fast moving story.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com