pratt voter

The race for mayor of Los Angeles is a dead heat as the campaign draws to a close, with a new poll showing incumbent Karen Bass erasing the double-digit lead previously held by Councilmember Nithya Raman.

Raman and Bass now each have 40% of likely L.A. voters in their camps, with 19% still undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 election, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times.

The neck-and-neck contest is a big change from September, when Raman jumped out to an 11-percentage-point lead with support from 39% of likely voters compared with Bass at 28%.

It follows weeks of relentless attacks on Raman by Bass, whom some analysts had predicted would need to campaign more aggressively to close the gap with her challenger.

“It’s certainly a breath of fresh air for Bass to see the race close. She’ll probably feel the campaign is having the effect she wants it to have, which is to put more focus on Raman and put Raman on the defensive,” said Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll.

Mayor Karen Bass greets phone banking volunteers at her South L.A. campaign headquarters.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)

The survey released Wednesday was conducted online in English and Spanish with a sample of 2,197 likely city voters between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25. It has a margin of error of about three percentage points.

“The momentum in this race is with Karen Bass,” said Alex Stack, a spokesperson for Bass’ campaign. “Ever since Angelenos got their ballots, Nithya Raman has made headlines for all the wrong reasons — voters know they can’t trust her on public safety and other key issues.”

The Raman campaign cited high unfavorable numbers for Bass in the poll, and noted that the mayor “still can’t get ahead” in voter surveys.

“Bass hasn’t led a poll since August and an aggregate of all publicly available polls continues to show Nithya in the lead,” the Raman campaign said in a news release.

The leveling off of the race, along with the sharp decline in undecided voters, was spurred largely by conservative voters who chose Republican Spencer Pratt in the primary deciding to vote for the mayor in the runoff, said DiCamillo.

In the September Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll, 22% of Pratt voters said they planned to support Bass, while 16% said they favored Raman. That left a whopping 63% of Pratt voters undecided still.

In the new poll, Bass shot up to 41% of the Pratt vote, while Raman dropped to 14% and 45% were still undecided. Pratt hasn’t endorsed either candidate in the race and continues to bash both Raman and Bass on social media.

“The Pratt voters are the biggest insertion,” DiCamillo said. “The question remains, since we’re looking at Pratt voters, 45% remain undecided. Will they vote?”

Raman trailed Bass in every poll during the primary campaign. Neither candidate had ever cleared 40% in any of the polls conducted by Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times.

In the June 2 primary election, Bass received 34% of the vote while Raman received 29%. Pratt placed third with 26%.

In the new poll, Raman shed support in key areas, including among groups that previously appeared to be leaning toward her.

Councilmember and mayoral hopeful Nithya Raman, center, with supporters at Grand Park in downtown Los Angeles.

(Christina House / Los Angeles Times)

In the September poll, Raman led among Latinos by 24 percentage points, 45% to Bass’ 21%. In the October poll, Bass was up to 40% and Raman fell to 43%, leaving the two within the margin of error for that key constituency.

DiCamillo said part of that change had to do with the likely voter population becoming more clear as the election neared, and older Latinos appeared to be a larger portion of the electorate.

“The Latino likely electorate now includes more older Latinos; that benefits Bass,” he said.

Black voters, long considered the backbone of Bass’ coalition, solidified behind the mayor, with 71% of likely Black voters supporting her compared with 13% supporting Raman. While Bass led among Black likely voters in the September poll, the already wide margin was much slimmer at that time, at 48% to 20%.

The poll also affirmed a widely held belief among the Bass camp that the San Fernando Valley would tilt toward the mayor over Raman.

Raman was leading in the Valley in the September poll 34% to 26%, but that number flipped on its head over the past month, with Bass now in front of Raman 44% to 33%.

Bass’ surge in the poll was more notable because the mayor’s favorable ratings — which have been in the tank since the January 2025 wildfires — remained underwater, with 65% of Angelenos viewing her unfavorably compared to 64% in the last poll. Only 32% had a positive view of the mayor, up four percentage points from September.

Bass’ attacks on Raman appeared to be having a significant effect on voters’ opinions of the challenger.

For the first time in a poll by Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times this cycle, Raman posted a higher unfavorable rating than favorable, with 49% of likely voters saying they viewed her unfavorably compared to 42% who had positive views of her.

The mayor, her campaign team and her surrogates have stepped up their offensive toward Raman, seizing on any opportunity to hammer the council member over remarks she has made on the campaign trail that they argue make the her unfit for the mayoralty and “not ready for prime time” — a slogan the mayor and her allies have deployed against their rival.

In early October, the Bass campaign slammed Raman over a video she posted with a leftist influencer in which she urged viewers to “stop fascist liars” as a photo of Bass flashed on the screen. Raman criticized both Bass and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell in the video.

Bass accused the council member of calling the city’s police officers fascists. A Raman spokesperson said she was referring to the “Trump administration’s violent kidnappings” as fascist, not the mayor or police chief or officers. The story dominated headlines for days.

The Bass camp also needled Raman that week after photos surfaced of the council member attending a happy hour on the day federal immigration authorities began raids in Los Angeles last summer, though Raman said she attended a protest that same day.

The Bass campaign sent out a news release calling it “Nithya Raman’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week.”

The attacks continued the next week after Raman said during the mayoral debate that the “gold standard” for LAPD’s noncooperation with immigration enforcement took place during the tenure of former LAPD Police Chief Daryl F. Gates.

Gates, a controversial chief accused of racist remarks during his tenure, headed the department during the 1991 videotaped beating of Rodney King and Bass said Raman’s comments showed she was “not really familiar with L.A., especially the Black community.”

Raman retorted that Bass was twisting her words, but later apologized, saying that mentioning Gates was painful for people across L.A.

The poll also asked respondents for the top priorities for the next mayor to address. Reducing the number of homeless encampments was by far the top answer, chosen by 43% of likely voters.

Tied for second place among top concerns was ensuring public safety and building more affordable housing, selected by 29% each.

Protecting immigrant communities was the third-most cited concern, with 21%, followed by balancing the city budget at 17%.

In the race for Los Angeles mayor, incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilmember Nithya Raman will need to win over a substantial portion of the 218,000 Angelenos who voted for Spencer Pratt in the primary and who are concentrated in certain neighborhoods.

In the June 2 primary, Bass earned more than a third of the vote, while Raman was close with 29%. Reality television personality Pratt finished third with 25.5%. The votes for him are nearly five times the 44,800-vote gap between Bass and Raman. This voting bloc could be key to either candidate securing the mayoral race.

Pratt carried 20% of the city’s 739 precincts, mainly in the West Valley — Woodland Hills, Encino, Granada Hills, West Hills, Chatsworth, Northridge and Tarzana — along with Brentwood, Pacific Palisades and San Pedro, according to a Times analysis of certified election results. In comparison, Bass had the most votes in 49% of the precincts, while Raman had 30%.

According to the latest Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, Raman and Bass are in a dead heat, each with the support of 40% of likely voters. Polls show 45% of Pratt voters are undecided.

In the primary, Pratt had the most votes in 24 of the city’s 113 neighborhoods. All but three of those 24 neighborhoods heavily favored developer Rick Caruso over Bass in the 2022 mayoral race.

This week, Caruso said he will vote for Bass.

Voters in precincts that voted heavily for Pratt also turned out more than others. Turnout there was 46%, compared with 37% in the rest of the city, more than in past mayoral primaries.

There is a large pool of potential voters for Bass and Raman to cast ballots through Election Day Tuesday. Pratt’s support stretched well beyond the places he won. About 125,000 of his votes came from precincts that Bass or Raman won.

Pratt had his weakest showing in the city’s 43 majority-Latino neighborhoods, where he got 22% of the vote. Bass did well in 35 of them. The only one Pratt did well in was San Pedro, where Latinos make up just over half the population.

Pratt’s stronghold neighborhoods

Pratt’s largest base stretched across the west and north San Fernando Valley, from Chatsworth and Porter Ranch in the northwest corner through Woodland Hills, Tarzana and Encino. He was the leader in 76 precincts there, which together cast about 120,000 votes.

Pratt got 40.5% of the vote in those precincts. Bass finished second in all but one of those areas. Raman got 19%.

This month, Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath endorsed Raman, giving her a strong ally on the Westside and in the Valley and possibly new inroads in those areas.

On the Westside, Pratt swept the wealthy neighborhoods of Pacific Palisades, Brentwood and Bel-Air. Pratt’s home in the Palisades was destroyed in the January 2025 fire. His strongest showings were in the Palisades and Bel-Air, where he got about 50% of the vote.

Raman ran ahead of Bass in some of Pratt’s precincts, including ones in Pico-Robertson, Brentwood and Beverly Grove.

In the northeast Valley, Pratt did well in the foothill communities of Sunland, Tujunga and Shadow Hills. It’s a small part of the city’s electorate, with 38,000 registered voters. He got 44% of the vote, Bass 28% and Raman 18%.

At the city’s southern tip, Pratt did well in 11 precincts in San Pedro and parts of Harbor City with 42% of the vote. Raman had her weakest showing, with 16%.

Raman came within 5 percentage points of Pratt in only a handful of his precincts, including ones in Valley Village, Pico-Robertson and West Los Angeles.