Pep

Should City and Arsenal win all their remaining five games they will both end on 85 points, meaning goal difference or goals scored could be the determining factor come May.

This is how tight it is – both teams have played the same number of games (33), have the same number of points (70) and their results are identical too – having won 21, drawn seven and lost five of their matches.

The only factor separating the two sides is the number of goals scored, with City netting 66 to Arsenal‘s 63.

Such is the topsy-turvy nature of this season’s race, City could find themselves trailing by six points by the time they next play in the league at Everton on Monday, 4 May – if Arsenal beat Newcastle and Fulham during that period.

City have previously scored five or more goals against Burnley in five different Premier League games – the most one side has done against another in the competition – and would have been eyeing up similar before this match.

Although City had 65% possession, a total of 28 shots with an expected goals (xG) of 3.54, they could only muster one goal through Haaland’s winner in the opening five minutes.

“Not many Arsenal players would have expected Burnley to get a result today, but if you are an Arsenal player or fan, you would take a 1-0 loss for Burnley,” former City defender Nedum Onuoha told BBC Radio 5 Live.

“Arsenal play Burnley in a few weeks and they will probably not be as wasteful with their chances as City, with so much on the line. Before you know it City are chasing Arsenal. I don’t think psychologically it matters that much.

“Now they have played each other, there is no longer this talk about the title decider in April. You have your five games, they have their five games. If you do well enough and win your games, the league title could very much be Arsenal‘s.

“They have to back themselves. The fact this only finished 1-0 to City when they had 28 shots, maybe this is the boost they need to turn their form around.”

Former Premier League goalkeeper Tim Krul added: “Arsenal have been so close the last few years, I think we all half want them to get it. But you can’t rule out Manchester City.

“My money would be on City, just with the experience. They are serial winners with the best manager in the world looking after them. You can’t not back them.”

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola says he enjoys watching Arsenal play as he can “learn a lot” from them.

The Gunners are in contention for a Premier League and Champions League double, sitting six points clear at the top of the table and with a European semi-final against Atletico Madrid lined up.

But their style of play under manager Mikel Arteta has increasingly been criticised, having scored 37% of their 62 league goals from set-pieces this season and just two goals from open play in their last five games.

Arsenal travel to second-place City in a monumental contest on Sunday (kick-off 16:30 BST) knowing they will go a long way to claiming their first title in more than two decades if they avoid defeat.

Asked if he enjoyed watching Arsenal in action, Guardiola said: “Yes. People are so demanding. From the media, supporters, everyone. I enjoy watching them. I learn a lot in many things.

“What people want is to win and we will fight. An aspect that is really, really important that we cannot fight against is [Arsenal going] 22 years without winning the Premier League. They have something that makes them unique. I know that.

“I knew that feeling when we arrived here. For a long time we didn’t win the Premier League. Manuel [Pellegrini] and [Roberto] Mancini did it but for our era I would say, I know how you feel that first win.

“That is something that we cannot play against, that is why we have to focus on the way we have to play.”

Manchester City assistant manager Pep Lijnders has hinted midfielder Bernardo Silva’s nine-year spell at the club will end this summer, saying “every good story comes to an end”.

The 31-year-old’s contract expires at the end of the season. He has not yet signed an extension and has been linked with La Liga leaders Barcelona, Serie A side Juventus and clubs in America.

Lijnders was on media duty after Saturday’s 4-0 FA Cup quarter-final win over Liverpool with manager Pep Guardiola serving a touchline ban, and reflected on the importance of the Portuguese international to City.

“You never replace a player with the same kind of player because they don’t exist,” he said.

“Bernardo Silva is unique. The way he controls games, the way he moves, the way he receives, the way he leads, the way he sees the solutions. All these things.

“But it will be hard because, as I said, in the game, when he is not playing you will see how he is missed – and that’s one game. Imagine a season.

“But every good story comes to an end, and I hope he enjoys the last months – there are only six weeks – and has a good farewell.

“He deserves all that attention as well.”

Rodri won the Ballon d’Or in 2024 but missed almost the entirety of last season after sustaining a knee injury and City failed to win a major trophy for the first time in eight years.

He has missed large chunks of this campaign because of a hamstring issue but has played 28 games in all competitions, helping the side to win the Carabao Cup against Arsenal at Wembley.

During his time at City, Rodri has won four Premier League titles, the Champions League, FA Cup and three League Cups.

Rodri previously said to Spanish media: “There have been many players who’ve gone down that path [playing for Atletico and Real].

“Not immediately, but over time. For me, you can’t turn down the best clubs in the world.”

Guardiola said Rodri has shown over time “how attached, how close he is” to City and his “contribution has been massive”.

The manager confirmed he would “absolutely” not stand in the midfielder’s way if he wanted to leave, adding: “The organisation of the club is above all of us – if one player is not happy they have to leave and [we] continue the same always if they are happy – and I think he is happy.

“If he is not happy just knock on the door of the sporting director, accept an offer according to his incredible quality and after that he doesn’t belong to the club – only himself.

“I know what the club wants. They informed me what they want from Rodri – it is to stay, stay, stay. I always had the positive [feeling] with that but at the end I don’t know.”

This particular run of seven games will define City’s season on all four fronts – losing twice against Real means their trophy prospects have been reduced to three.

That could be down to two on Sunday with a huge clash against the Gunners, who are hungry to rid their tags of ‘nearly men’ by ending a trophy drought which stretches back to 2020.

“On Monday [after Carabao Cup final] hopefully we will wake up and it is a sunny day,” said Guardiola. “It is not crucial, it is a football game, we are going to try to win with a good performance.

“We will challenge against the best team in England so far, the best team in Europe because look at their results in the group phase, they were first and have lost three or four games all season. We will challenge them and we have to see how we are competing against them.”

City were held to a surprise 1-1 draw at relegation strugglers West Ham, which has left them nine points off the pace in the Premier League with eight games to go – and a monumental effort is required to overturn that particular deficit.

And the FA Cup is no formality either, with City hosting rivals Liverpool in the quarter-final on Saturday 4 April after the international break, with league games immediately after against Chelsea and Arsenal.

Guardiola said: “After one or two weeks, we play against them in the Premier League and it is a good mirror to see what we have to do to achieve [like] them. I am old enough to see that one football game is not the big happiness or a loss is the end of the world, it’s just a game.

“In the end, the results have not been good except Newcastle but I have the feeling we are an extraordinary team with many, many, many good things that I love.

“We are still not complete, we are not aware in certain moments and departments, we have to be more clinical but my feeling is it is a question of time.”

“We changed to make the players more dynamic, with Rayan, Jeremy [Doku] and Phil [Foden],” Guardiola told his post-match news conference. “But we could not win the game.

“We could be more aggressive in the first half maybe, but with the creativity, the crosses and dribbles this season, we are struggling. The team, they did everything, but they need to be better in the final third, and it has happened in many games this season.”

Asked about picking Semenyo over Cherki as number 10, he said: “Absolutely, for that role there is no-one better than [Cherki]. That is bad selection, you can criticise me, I deserve it.

“Sometimes for the balance, we are learning. We played Cherki and Haaland – incredible, but we do not have the stability teams in the Premier League must have. I try to handle that, and the team is still growing.

“Rayan’s impact off the bench is unbelievable, but sometimes he does not have the pace so we play Semenyo. I am still finding the best way to have stability and to balance the team.”

Haaland’s form is thrown into sharp focus by the fact he struggled against West Ham, a team against who he has scored 11 Premier League goals – more than any other side.

“It’s not about the lack of goals,” Guardiola said of the Norway striker. “We need to create more. He will be back.”

City cannot win well, and they struggle to win ugly too.

They have only lost once in their past 18 league matches, but during that period they have given up 10 points from winning positions – enough to cost them first place in the current standings.

In games where they were winning, they have drawn with Chelsea, Brighton, Tottenham, Nottingham Forest and now West Ham.

Given the latter came a couple of hours after Arsenal, starring Max Dowman, spectacularly dug out victory over Everton, this one will sting.

Guardiola laughed it off afterwards, saying he had been having a beer pre-match rather than following the Arsenal match with his team, as he served a touchline ban.

He also joked he would look to get more yellow cards as he preferred the view from the stands – and light-heartedly batted away a question on whether Haaland was limping.

It felt like if Guardiola didn’t laugh, he would cry.